text:
← High density is the highroad to prosperity
Discussion group on harvesting subsidies →
Posted on December 21, 1996 by urbanrenaissanceinst
Peering through the smoke
Ashes to Ashes: America's Hundred-Year Cigarette War, the Public Health, and the Unabashed Triumph of Philip Morris
by Richard Kluger
(Alfred A. Knopf, 1996. 807 pages) $45
IF RICHARD KLUGER'S BOOK WERE A PACK OF CIGARETTES, I would have trouble inhaling at first, but I would soon get hooked. The introductory chapter is a cannonade against tobacco. With all the balance and reason of a Ralph Nader on amphetamines, Kluger sets smoking on the same level as nuclear weaponry, hatred between nations and desecration of nature. Smoking may even have killed more people than the wars of this century. Readers who can make it past this brief outburst of rhetoric can settle down to a fascinating commercial history of the American cigarette, told by a professional reporter of high calibre.
The rise of the cigarette is the story of modern commerce. The cigarette industry led the way in developing the mix of research, management, retailing and marketing on which large corporations model themselves today. Such economic brio could not have been foretold 120 years ago. After the American Civil War, most tobacco was either chewed, smoked through pipes or rolled into cigars. Cigarettes were made from the dregs left by these more popular products and rolled with flavoring pastes that were rumored to include dung and urine. Either you paid a premium for luxury cigarettes or you took your chances with the common stuff. It is no surprise that most people stayed away.
What brought smokers in was Buck Duke, a teenager from North Carolina with a shrewder grasp of the human soul than Plato or Kant ever had. Duke grew up in a family that earned a modest living farming tobacco. He took his leap into history by seizing an opportunity that the nation's small-thinking cigarette makers had rejected — a new machine that could reliably roll 70,000 cigarettes a day, the output of 45 manual workers. Duke bought the machine and swore its exasperated inventors, the Bonsack brothers, to be his semi-exclusive suppliers. The Bonsacks would charge all competing buyers a 25 per cent premium over the price paid by Duke. Duke then set about improving cigarette blends and tobacco breeds. He matched his technical grasp of manufacturing with a modern view of marketing. Almost all profits were plowed back into advertising. Duke was investing in something called goodwill, an asset he understood would take years to build before paying off mightily. As a young millionaire he did not scruple to pound the pavements of New York late at night to drop in on corner stores, ask what brands were selling, what consumers were looking for in a smoke, and whether the owner would put Duke's brands on window display — for a premium of course. With such tactics he caught his competitors napping. By the turn of the century he had bought most of them out, expanded into cigars and chews and brought his company, American Tobacco, to the head of tobacco manufacture and marketing in the United States.
Anyone this talented and rich is bound to rouse jealousies. On the pretext of breaking up a price-fixing monopoly, the Justice Department forced Duke to disband his tobacco trust. Duke's spirited defence against the accusation of manipulating the market was, "We happen to have more of the brands that please the people, and consequently we sell more tobacco." This sounds similar to Michael Milken's explanation on how he got rich selling high-risk-high-yield debt, and to Bill Gates's defence of Microsoft. Both of these 1980s billionaires claim they made their fortunes fashioning products that consumers wanted at prices no one else could beat. On reading the rest of Richard Kluger's book, it is hard not to believe that Duke was right.
From the 1920s to the present, the cigarette industry has molded itself to the most intimate contours of its clients' desires. Far from being kings, tobacco executives emerge from these pages as slaves to the public whim. The industry followed the public's wish for cigarettes with low tar and few noxious elements. The major cigarette concerns funded scientific research that dissected cigarette smoke in trying to discover tobacco's harmful effects. Over the years, the industry poured hundreds of millions of dollars into making cigarettes safe. During the 1980s, RJR Nabisco sunk $300 million dollars into its smokeless cigarette project; a project that failed because smokers wanted to suck down smoke, not steamed tobacco fumes.
If the industry's efforts have not made smokers safe from cancer and emphysema, it seems that smokers themselves are to blame. When the industry introduced filters, its clients increased their cigarette uptake. This sort of phenomenon was first identified by University of Chicago economist Samuel Peltzman in the 1970s as the "law of offsetting behavior." After accounting for all factors that might possibly have led to the falling traffic mortalities of the 1970s (such as an ageing population), Peltzman found that forcing people to wear seat-belts did not lower traffic mortality rates. Drivers understand the protective value of seat-belts. They press harder on the pedal, to the point where the risk of death rises back to its old level. Air bags, and anti-lock brakes have done little to prevent road massacres for the same reason. Consumers of deadly products are eerily well informed on the risks and adjust their behavior to find the level of deadliness that suits them best.
The notion that consumers are rational beings who understand risks, choose to become addicted, and face the consequences like adults, is not prominent in Richard Kluger's book. In his eyes, the cigarette industry lulled smokers into a sense of security by questioning the link between cigarettes and cancer. Cigarette makers may not be Satan's little helpers, but they come close. Kluger believes they could have done a great deal more than they did to warn smokers of the dangers of their product, and that government should have clamped down on the industry much harder.
Hostility to smoking goes back far. As Kluger notes, in the 17th century, the Mogul emperor of Hindustan ordered smokers' lips split on the grounds that their habit invited debauchery. Kluger's more modern hostility is based on the notion that many people do not understand the addictive nature of smoking and its true costs. Smokers are backward looking. They only remember the joys that smoking brought them and do not think about what suffering the future holds. We need government to pluck the cigarettes from their uncomprehending mouths and drag these poor souls back to a sane way of living.
Kluger might have shown greater respect for the reader's intelligence by mentioning recent research that suggests smokers are not complete dunces. Economist Gary Becker won the Nobel Prize in 1992, in part, for showing that addiction is a matter of rational choice by consumers. "Rationality" means that consumers look forward and think about the benefits and costs that smoking will bring them in years to come. Becker and other economists have looked at patterns of smoking over time and have found that the numbers accord with the theory. Rationality may explain why the proportion of smokers in the population has halved over the last forty years. Since the 1950s, life expectancies have risen by more than 10 per cent in the U.S. and Canada. Incomes have more than doubled. To a rational smoker, this means his habit will rob him of more years of life lived at a higher income than before. In other words, progress gives us more to lose by smoking. No wonder people are quitting. With such a process of reason at work, who is Kluger, or anyone else, to appoint himself as his smoker's keeper?
If the case for regulating smoking is questionable, the case for giving government this duty must rest on the faith that government will not bungle the task nor abuse its power. The great tobacco advertising ban that swept over a quarter of industrialized countries in the late 1960s and early 1970s is a prime example of bungling. A study of smoking trends in 22 OECD countries since the 1960s shows that cigarette sales rose slightly in the six countries that imposed a complete ban on advertising. This is not surprising. Cigarette companies have long known that advertising does not produce the demand for tobacco. It simply draws smokers away from other forms of tobacco such as cigars and chews, or away from the allegiance to competing cigarette companies. At most, a ban on advertising will freeze incumbent producers into their market shares. But with advertising gone, the costs of companies will fall, and so will their prices. The ironic result is a rise in cigarette smoking. If Kluger is aware of this study, he does not mention it. Instead he proposes an eight-pronged attack on the tobacco industry that includes higher taxes, a stricter ban on advertising and government oversight of manufacturing and marketing.
The problem with government regulation of social habits is that bureaucrats and politicians do not have the resources or information to tailor their policies to individuals. They can only send down sweeping solutions from on high. This may explain why governments have not been able to solve problems such as poverty and unemployment. The best regulation for a complicated behavior such as smoking may be that which comes from the advice of friends and family, and from the disapproval of colleagues. The process may be slower than a government crackdown, but the payoffs are greater. Moral progress can only come if people are allowed to choose between good and bad. Perhaps this is why a prominent thinker of the last century wrote, "Prohibition would work great injury to the cause of temperance. It is a species of intemperance within itself, for it goes beyond the bounds of reason in that it attempts to control a man's appetite by legislation and makes a crime out of things that are not crimes. A prohibition law strikes at the very principle upon which our government was founded." If Abraham Lincoln's advice is kept in mind, readers can filter away the more intemperate parts of Richard Kluger's book, to enjoy the story it tells of the rise of a great industry.
Reply to Filip Palda's review of Ashes to Ashes by Richard Kluger
Why governments must regulate the tobacco industry
IN HIS REVIEW OF ASHES TO ASHES (Winter 1996/97), Filip Palda attempts to force a market theory on the data — basically, he believes that government should adopt a laissez-faire attitude to smoking and other activities where people put their lives at risk — and he conveniently ignores facts that do not jive with the market-model explanation. His theory does not explain smoking behavior very well.
Mr. Palda complains that the author, Richard Kluger, doesn't treat consumers as "rational beings who understand risks, choose to become addicted, and face the consequences like adults." Your reviewer assumes consumers are informed, yet for years the tobacco industry has lied about the health risks associated with smoking. People are aware of the risks largely due to the efforts of various non-smoking lobby groups and government regulations that require various warnings on cigarette packages.
Mr. Palda is also wrong to think consumers choose to be addicted. Most Canadians who become addicted to tobacco do so as children. According to Health Canada's 1994 Youth Smoking Survey, 7 per cent of youths aged 10 to 14, and 24 per cent of 15- to 19-year-olds, smoked regularly. An even higher percentage were recent smokers who were not regular yet.
Studies of smoking behavior among children show them to be very well informed about the health risks without understanding how addictive nicotine is. Most believe that they will be able to quit. Two-thirds of female smokers aged 10 to 19 have tried to quit at least once. Over 30 per cent in each age group have tried to quit three times or more. Among boys, 60 per cent have tried to quit at least once, and 27 per cent have tried to quit three times or more. Forty-three per cent of male smokers aged 10 to 14 have tried to quit smoking.
Mr. Palda says consumers should face the consequences like adults, ignoring the fact that most smokers are not adults when they become addicted. Ninety per cent started under the age of 20; on average, they begin at 14. Even if smokers became addicted as adults, it is callous to just say, "take the consequences," when public health policies can help people quit. An individual who does not start smoking by age 19 is very unlikely to ever start. In North America, the overwhelming majority of non-addicted adults choose not to start.
To reduce the health problems associated with smoking, public health policy should encourage children not to start smoking. Ashes to Ashes discusses at length the tobacco industry's attempts to target children, including free cigarettes samples at rock concerts and advertising aimed at adolescents. Kluger would forbid free sampling of cigarettes and their sale in vending machines, and severely fine those selling to buyers under the age of 18.
Citing a study of 22 OECD countries that shows cigarette sales rose slightly in the six countries that completely banned advertising, Mr. Palda claims that "The great tobacco advertising ban that swept over a quarter of industrialized counties in the late 1960s and early 1970s is a prime example of bungling." Banning advertising only reduces companies' advertising costs, Mr. Palda believes, leading to lower prices and more cigarettes smoked. The logic sounds reasonable, but the study does not support it.
The evidence regarding cigarette advertising bans is anything but clear cut. While the OECD study does show a very slight rise, its authors (not Mr. Palda) are quick to state that the relationship between banning advertising and increased cigarette sales was not statistically significant. The study controlled for price and attributed the slight increase more to the disappearance of government regulated health warnings that accompanied the advertising. People became less aware of the risks involved with smoking and, so, were more likely to smoke.
Since banning cigarette advertising did not lower cigarette consumption, other policies should be pursued instead. Perhaps an antismoking ad which mocks the Marlboro Man could follow each cigarette commercial.
Mr. Palda believes the "best regulation for a complicated behavior such as smoking may be that which comes from the advice of friends and family, and from the disapproval of colleagues. The process may be slower than a government crackdown, but the payoffs are greater."
In this I agree wholeheartedly. People are more likely to change their behavior if they believe in the change, rather than if they are forced. Since drunk driving became socially unacceptable, fewer people drink and drive, leading to a considerable decrease in drunk driving accidents in Canada during the last 20 years. However, we still need drunk driving regulations and police enforcement of drunk driving laws.
TO SURVIVE, THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY MUST RECRUIT new smokers. Because advertising aimed at adults primarily shifts brand loyalty, it must addict children and adolescents to replenish the declining number of adult smokers.
Government regulation can reduce the number of young smokers. According to the OECD study, increasing the price of cigarettes sharply reduces cigarette consumption, especially for young people, who on average have less disposable income. We also need government regulation to combat unequal power relationships. The market model assumes that many buyers and sellers of goods and services are informed, and that the marketplace determines prices and consumption.
In practice, corporations can use their great economic resources to thwart the relatively poor individual citizens who dispute the claims of cigarette manufacturers. With their wealth, companies can bribe politicians by making large contributions to their election campaigns and can hire lobbyists to turn government regulations to their economic interests. With their wealth, corporations can hire a legion of public relations types to lie and to misinform people by providing speakers to service clubs and school kits to teachers, by writing letters to newspapers, by putting out press releases, and so on.
The inequality in power is obvious. An individual has few hours and economic resources to devote to challenging the practices of the tobacco industry. In a democratic society, each citizen should have equal power in determining policies that affect such issues as public health. One way to do this is through elections, referenda, and government regulation. The alternative championed by Mr. Palda leads to domination by the wealthy and unscrupulous.
Health Canada (1994). 1994 Youth Smoking Survey. Cat. H49-98/1994E.
Spoke, Susan & Associates (1996). A Literature Review on Smoking: The Social, Psychological and Physiological Influencers Affecting Decisions and Behaviour.
Stewart, M.J. (1993). "The effect of advertising on tobacco consumption in OECD countries." International Journal of Advertising, 12:155-180.
by Evan Morris, Regina
AFTER READING MR. MORRIS'S letter I got confused. Did I really write a book review in which I am "callous" toward addicts, in which I try to force market theory on data, and where I call for government to take a "laissez-faire" attitude when people put their lives at risk? In rereading my review, I could find no trace of the beast Mr. Morris sighted running loose in those pages. Perhaps what bothered him was that someone questions the antismoking position. On this count I plead guilty. Here are some of the antismoking claims about which I have doubts:
Claim no. 1: Smokers don't know the risks. An expert in this field is Kip Viscusi. Viscusi engaged the New York survey research firm, Audits and Surveys, to ask 3,119 Americans about their knowledge of the dangers of tobacco use. Respondents — including smokers — heavily overestimated the risk that a smoker will develop lung cancer, and slightly overestimated the risk of death from smoking and the years by which smoking shortens a life. It is not clear why people overestimate the true risks of smoking. Perhaps inflated estimates are a way of protecting yourself against dangerous behavior, the way some people advance their wristwatches by five minutes to make sure they arrive on time.
Claim no. 2: People do not avoid smoking based on their evaluation of important information. The crucial question here is whether perceptions of risk influence behavior. If people can sense risk, and adjust their behavior to that sense, this suggests they are thinking, autonomous beings who do not need a bureaucrat in a nanny's uniform to spank them for lighting up. Using a technique known as logistic regression, Viscusi isolated the effect of risk perceptions from other variables that might influence an individual's decision to smoke. He found that the more risk a person perceives from smoking, the less likely he is to smoke. This means that people are using their heads and making choices. Including making the choice to become addicted and making the choice to end addiction. According to a 1990 report of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, even though 50 million Americans smoked, half of all American adults who once smoked had quit, and overall there were 38 million former smokers in the U.S. population. With rising perceptions of the risk of smoking came rising quit ratios so that today approximately 60 per cent of smokers will choose to quit their habit.
"Choosing" to become addicted sounds strange. Isn't addiction an accident? As when Ulysses's men got lost in Lotus land and could not stop themselves from munching magic flowers? If this is how you think about addiction then you have to believe that smokers get hooked without understanding the risks. As Viscusi's research suggests, this view does not jive with the facts. Viscusi has the audacity to suggest that smokers are not ignorant of, or insensitive to, risk but simply have less fear of risk than others. He supports this view with wage data that show that smokers demand half the compensation for work in dangerous situations that non-smokers demand. Maybe smokers just have a different take on life. Forcing them to change might be like forcing Diogenes out of his barrel. Is anyone wise enough to perform the eviction without doubts?
What about children? Is smoking a rational choice for them? A 1974 study by psychologists F.
W. Schneider and L. A. Vanmastrig measured children's perceptions of smoking risk. Over 99 per cent of children between 7 and 8 years of age believe that smoking causes cancer and shortens a person's life. The majority of children also believe that it is hard to stop smoking. Viscusi's own survey of teenagers between 16 and 21 bore out these results. He found that this age group had an even higher assessment of the risks of smoking than adults and that they had the same negative response to risk as adults. Namely "there is no evidence of younger consumers being lured into smoking in any disproportionate manner."
Some young consumers of course do end up getting lured. Could not some government muscle protect them from the evils of tobacco? In a recent survey of U.S. research, social psychologist Steve Sussman and his colleagues found that the youngsters who are likeliest to become serious smokers have low self-esteem, are likely to abuse alcohol and drugs, and come from troubled families where parents did not care about their activities. Smoking may give youngsters good feelings that happier people can generate without the help of a drug. What this suggests is that efforts to stomp out smoking may simply push these people to look for another feel-good drug such as alcohol or Valium. Economists Rajeev Goel and Mathew Morey found evidence of this type of substitution. In a study covering 50 U.S. states between 1959 and 1982, they estimated that a 15 per cent rise in cigarette prices would lower cigarette demand by 15 per cent and raise liquor demand by 20 per cent. What these data hint at is that no advertising ban or cigarette prohibition is going to solve a problem created by years of family neglect. Perversely, an antismoking crusade might entice some youngsters to start smoking. H. L. Mencken noted this effect during the years of alcohol prohibition in the United States. "The benefits that were to come from the abolition of the open saloon, long damned as a constant temptation to the young, are not visible. On the contrary, the young are now tempted as the saloon, even in its most romantic and voluptuous forms, never tempted them."
Claim no. 3: Tobacco companies are powerful concerns who control the market. Power is hard to measure, but consider this. In the late 1980s, tobacco companies tried to campaign against a California initiative that was hostile to their interests. In spite of an $8-million advertising campaign, the tobacco interests could not overcome the antitobacco interests who fought back with only $1 million in advertising.
Consider also that these supposedly powerful tobacco companies have seen a per capita consumption of cigarettes fall, almost to late 1940s levels. Advertising campaigns may have helped tobacco companies slow the decline (though the statistical debate on this point is unresolved in the economics profession), but growing public concern over health has outweighed industry propaganda. Advertising has mainly been about luring consumers from competing brands. Where advertising has been banned, some cigarette companies seem to have benefited. Economists Anthony Gyapong and Kwabena Brempong found that the 1970 U.S. tobacco advertising ban helped raise the profits of the established tobacco firms. Woodrow Eckard found a similar result and added that the advertising ban stabilized the market shares of established firms. It appears that the advertising ban was like a peace treaty that helped certain companies by putting an end to costly advertising wars.
If tobacco companies have the power to dictate terms to consumers, they have a strange way of showing that power. Richard Kluger's book is in part the story of how the tobacco industry has scrambled to provide consumers with what they want: a safe smoke. In their survey of tobacco advertising between 1926 and 1986, D. J. Ringold and J. E. Calfee show that in the 1920s, cigarette companies were responding to consumer concerns about health. By the 1950s, an advertising war had broken out in which these companies were citing scientific data to lure smokers toward brands with low tar. Their main impediment to satisfying consumer health concerns was the Surgeon General. In the belief that all smoking is bad, he decided to frustrate tobacco companies in their competition to bring consumers a safer smoke (a view to which the American Cancer Society took exception). The Surgeon General continued his attempts to squash the search for a safer cigarette in 1989 when RJR Nabisco came out with the smokeless Premiere cigarette. In its attempts to stamp out smoking, the antismoking lobby appears willing to give smokers only one choice: Quit smoking or die. These are much harsher terms than the tobacco companies are offering.
In making these comments, please note I am not belittling the concerns of the antismoking lobby nor saying that this lobby is a monolithic group with no diversity of opinion. I do not smoke. For five years my sister and I pestered my father to stop smoking (we won). The purpose of my answer to Mr. Morris's letter is to suggest that there are enough facts to make reasonable people pause before giving government the power to impose a standard of behavior on their fellows.
Eckard, Woodrow E. Jr. (1991). "Competition and the Cigarette TV Advertising Ban." Economic Inquiry. 29:119-133.
Goel, Rajeev K. and Mathew J. Morey (1995). "The Interdependence of Cigarette and Liquor Demand." Southern Economic Journal, 62: 451-59.
Mencken, H.L. Editorial in the American Mercury, December 1924. Reprinted in Politics of Moral Behavior: Prohibition and Drug Abuse. Edited by K.A. Kerr. Reading: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1972.
Sussman, Steve, and Clyde W. Dent, Dee Burton, Alan Stacy, Brian R. Flay. Developing School-Based Tobacco Use Prevention and Cessation Programs. London: Sage Publications, 1995.
Mitchell, Mark L. and J. Harold Mulherin (1988). "Finessing the Political System: The Cigarette Advertising Ban." Southern Economic Journal, 54:855-62.
Viscusi, Kip W. Smoking: Making the Risky Decision. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. (This book also has the references to the work of Schneider and Vanmastrig and Ringold and Calfee).
Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin
by Stephen Jay Gould
(Harmony Books, 1996. 244 pages) $32.95
IF DIVERSITY AND INCLUSIVENESS are the leitmotifs of our day, Stephen Jay Gould's Full House is truly a book for our times. Gould, a Harvard professor of zoology and anthropology, rejects the conventional understanding of evolution, which sees a trend to complexity in the history of life. In Full House we learn that diversity, not complexity, is the true measure of excellence. Gould's elaborate defence of this conclusion begins with a call to statistical conversion: We must kick our Platonic habit of representing full systems by a single exemplar, or essence, and get used to reading trends not as complete entities on the move, upward or downward, but as variations within whole systems — within "full houses."
While Gould's discussion of true trends may daunt the statistically challenged, it is guaranteed to delight the baseball fan and poker player alike. Many assume that .400 hitting has disappeared because batters just aren't as good as they used to be. But Gould explains that the absence of a latter-day Ted Williams in our own house actually marks an overall improvement in play.
Baseball may well be a metaphor for life. As do the disillusioned fans, those who think that progress characterizes life's history have focused exclusively on extreme values. They have followed only the most complex organism through time — not the full house — and are guilty of substituting its increasing complexity for progress of the whole. (Gould describes this phenomenon as a fine example of a very small tail wagging a large dog.) Careful observation of the whole reveals some striking facts — particularly the enduring presence of bacteria, which Gould claims has dominated life despite 3.5 billion years of evolutionary "progress."
Reader be warned. This mental workout has merely been a warm-up for what Gould thinks all this really means: We humans may be pretty sophisticated, but our sense of place in the cosmos needs a little readjusting. With no "progress" characterizing life's history, we must learn to see ourselves not as the pinnacle and centre of it all, but simply as one conscious and contingent member of a very full house.
Patricia Murphy
The Irony of Free Speech
by Owen M. Fiss
(Harvard University Press, 1996. 98 pages) $27.45
IN THIS SLIM BOOK, Owen M. Fiss, Yale University's Sterling Professor of Law, postulates that freedom of speech must be limited to protect it. He examines this counterintuitive argument in relation to the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment, but analogy to Canada is not difficult.
Fiss's arguments on pornography, hate speech and artistic grant allocation are perplexingly rife with straw men, missing premises and question begging. What, for example, can be made of his position that giving grant money to one artist restricts the freedom of others? Contradictorily, even as he makes this argument, Fiss supports regulation to "turn down" the volume of pornography and hate speech. He apparently ignores that such control makes the state an arbiter of good-speak and bad-speak, no less than grants make it an arbiter of art. Moreover, Fiss fails to support his premise that pornography or hate speech actually somehow "silences" people.
Crisis in the Academy: Rethinking Higher Education in America
by Christopher J. Lucas
(St. Martin's Press, 1996. 288 pages) $29.95
EDUCATIONAL HISTORIAN, CHRISTOPHER LUCAS chalks the current crisis in the universities up to finances. However, after he's surveyed the origin and evolution of post-secondary education in the United States, his more important though unstated message is that there has always been a crisis in the academy. The perpetual crisis has revolved around the same set of issues. Should these institutions provide general education at the undergraduate level? Specialized professional training? Scholarly research at the graduate level? Should these be separated or combined in one institution? Who should be admitted? What curriculum should be taught and how should faculty be recruited and retained?
Among other reforms, Lucas proposes redefining the mandate of each set of institutions that make up post-secondary education. Some will need to become more vocationally oriented while others should reflect the philosophy of a liberal education. Lucas feels that universities offering undergraduate education should resist the pressure to measure results purely in terms of job placements, and they should question rigid course requirements of majoring in a particular discipline. In no sense would he allow students to select their courses and let the market decide the value of their choice. More worrying, however, he downplays to two pages the probable effect of information technology and the expansion of distance learning. Without considering these forces, future crises will be assured.
Christopher Maule
Dossier: The Secret History of Armand Hammer
by Edward Jay Epstein
(Random House, 1996. 418 pages) $39.95
EDWARD JAY EPSTEIN'S TALE of the close relationship between Armand Hammer and the Soviet state will cause a shudder in many capitalists who find parallels to their own heroes uncomfortably close for comfort.
For Hammer's life provides an extreme lesson in how to use state levers for private gain. The first westerner to obtain Soviet monopolies, this concessionaire extraordinary had his hand in asbestos mines and oil fields; he received a cut from every immigrant in America who wanted to send money to relatives in Russia, and for every Ford vehicle sold in the Soviet Union.
Epstein paints Hammer's success as diametrically different from the accepted mode of business taught in the West. Not due to the free market, it "was based on the Leninist concept that economic rewards proceed from the state. Rather than exposing businessmen to withering only-the-fittest-shall-survive competition, the state protects its concessionaires. The chief skill, therefore, is getting a concession from the government — and holding on to it."
Yet many, if not most, successful western capitalists more resemble Hammer in their business philosophy than Adam Smith and his ideal world of free markets. The chief skill demonstrated by Canadian industrialists, from Sir Henry Pellatt at the turn of the century to Ted Rogers today, was precisely getting — and holding onto — the state concessions and other favors that led to their fabulous wealth.
Filip Palda responds
This entry was posted in Culture, Regulation. Bookmark the permalink.


Stylish handmade clear bevelled glass Souk lantern with glass top sconce, finished with antique metalwork and three chain suspension.
Handmade in the UK to the highest standards.
Height: 1010mm max – 560mm min.


Jazz News New York, NY -- Earlier this year, the legendary American music iconoclast, James Blood Ulmer, released his first ever solo recording, Birthright. The album, which features Ulmer alone on vocals and guitar, quickly drew critical acclaim, garnering praise from the likes of national publications such as DownBeat, Guitar Player, Jazz Times, Jazziz, Living Blues, No Depression and Rolling Stone, while newspapers including the Chicago Sun Times, Minneapolis City Pages, Seattle Post Intelligencer and The Washington Post declared it one of this year's most important blues records. Now, James Blood Ulmer's Birthright has been voted "Blues Album of the Year" in DownBeat Magazine's 70th Annual Readers Poll. The poll, based solely on votes by DownBeat's readers, validates the critical praise Birthright has received by reflecting the opinion of the fans. It's a well-deserved honor for an artist whose music has undergone a creative renaissance and commercial rediscovery in recent years. Long regarded as one of the most inventive guitarists of his generation, Ulmer's reputation has slowly morphed from avant-garde jazz visionary to an elder statesman of the blues. In fact, Ulmer covers all this ground and more.
Produced by Vernon Reid, the 12-track Birthright is far and away the most stark and deeply personal work of Ulmer's career. Based primarily on original material, songs like "Geechee Joe," "Take My Music Back To The Church," "Where Did All the Girls Come From" "The Evil One" and "White Man's Jail" deal directly with Ulmer's upbringing in segregated South Carolina and his migration North as a working musician. Ulmer continually confronts the church, trying to make amends with his past. Raised a strict Baptist, his career in secular music was long viewed by his parents as the devil's work. It's fascinating to watch Ulmer's public struggle unfold through these songs. On Birthright, Ulmer also tackles two classics of the blues' idiom, "Sittin' On Top of the World" and "I Ain't Superstitious," and completely reinvents them with his idiosyncratic guitar tuning and guttural vocal moan that harkens back to the blues most primitive origins in Africa, yet simultaneously sounding amongst the most modern blues of the day. The album is rounded out by two instrumental pieces, "Love Dance Rag" and "High Yellow," which are gloriously free and abstract guitar meditations.
Birthright was released on the heels of two full-blown James Blood Ulmer blues albums: Memphis Blood: The Sun Sessions & No Escape From the Blues: The Electric Lady Sessions. Ulmer was joined on these dates by a seven piece band, including producer and guitarist Vernon Reid. They found Ulmer interpreting some of the genre's most classic material. It was Reid's assertion that Ulmer wasn't merely playing the blues, but that he'd actually lived the life of the characters in those very songs. Despite the success of those two albums, when it came time for a follow up, Ulmer insisted that the music be stripped bare and that he deliver his own personal revelations and stories through original songs. Thus Birthright was born.
2005 was one of the busiest years in recent time for Ulmer. It saw him perform numerous dates around the world, including a string of blues festivals this past summer. He'll finish the year with a solo performance at The Ark in Ann Arbor, Michigan on November 30th, while laying low for the majority of December to work on new material. Plans are already underway for the follow up to Birthright, however, tour dates are stacking up for 2006, including extended tours of Europe and a seven night stand at New York City's Jazz Standard in March. This special hometown run will feature a different side of Ulmer's music each night, ranging from his solo blues to the Odyssey Blues Band (with Charlie Burnham & Warren Benbow) to his power trio Man Vs. Machine (with Calvin G. Weston & Jamaladeen Tacuma) to the Memphis Blood band. With the recent DownBeat "Blues Album of the Year" honors, Ulmer is sure to find a growing audience for Birthright's powerful and riveting songs. And word is sure to spread further and wider about James Blood Ulmer, an artist who nearly 50 years into his career is creating his most vital and important music yet.


The New York Times – and, in interviews, Philip Roth himself – made it seem as though he was peacefully writing when he was suddenly attacked by rabbis. Some have pointed out that the truth is that Roth was looking for a fight. For one, he went to Yeshiva University to speak on the panel! The content of his stories, on their face, also seem like bait for the mainstream Jewish community. In The Conversion of the Jews, a young boy challenges his rabbi in Cheder to admit that a foundational Christian belief is not irrational: if God could have created the world miraculously in seven days, then, logically, the same God could have impregnated a woman miraculously through non-biological means. The rabbi refuses to concede the point, and eventually the boy threatens to jump off the synagogue roof unless the rabbi and other Jews admit that it's not illogical. In the end, to prevent the jump, the people below and the rabbi concede the boy's point. That story's nothing. Roth's 1959 story Defender of the Faith, which ran in The New Yorker, was even more incendiary. That story is about a group of Jewish soldiers on a base in Missouri during World War II who get special privileges from their Jewish commanding officer by taking advantage of their shared heritage and preying on his sentimentality.
There is no doubt that Philip Roth is a controversial figure on many levels which have been explored and will continue being explored by literary critics and by the general media. For his language and some of his content, his writings cannot receive rabbinic approbation. Having stipulated those qualifications, I believe that the growth of our community, the orthodox community in America, both in population size and in general influence, owes a debt to Philip Roth and his critiques of the Jewish community.
In the middle of the twentieth century, Orthodoxy in America was on the decline. In 1955, sociologist Marshall Sklare wrote about Orthodox Jews that "the history of their movement in this country can be written in terms of a case study on institutional decay." In 1964 Look Magazine ran an article entitled, "The Vanishing American Jew," which predicted the imminent disappearance of Orthodoxy in America. The joke's on them, of course: in 2018, we're still here, bigger than ever, and Look Magazine is defunct. In fact, the pendulum began swinging shortly after that article appeared. In the late 1960s and 1970s, the movement saw the beginnings of a population boom. There were more and larger institutions, synagogues and schools, more people who grew up orthodox were remaining such, and more people were joining orthodoxy from outside it. What changed in the 1960s?
A hundred years before Philip Roth ever put pen to paper and Look Magazine ran sociology articles, Rabbi Samson Raphael Hirsch saw sentiments among the German Jewish community not entirely different from those held by 1950s American Jewry, although they manifested differently. They wanted to pray entirely in German instead of Hebrew. They wished to abolish fasting on Tisha B'av because Germany was the new Promised Land. They wanted to make Sunday the day of rest instead of Saturday in order to have the same church going day as their Christian neighbors.
In many of his talks and writings, Rav Hirsch emphasized that assimilation was not the answer; it would not help the Jews integrate into German society nor would it encourage acceptance among their Protestant neighbors. Instead, he preached, only if Jews were devoted to Torah observance and hold steadfast to their traditional identities would they gain appreciation and respect—not to mention, bring peace to the world.
The message Rav Hirsch had in the 1860s and 70s in Germany didn't resonate in America until the 1960s and 70s, and his critique of the 19th century assimilating German Jewish community was echoed by Philip Roth's critique of the 1950s American one.
After all, who did Roth criticize? Who was the object of his satire? In story after story, novel after novel, Roth satirized postwar, suburban, upper middle class, bourgeois, assimilated American Jewry, Jews whose central life goal was to be accepted by their Protestant neighbors and into their country clubs. In one story, Eli the Fanatic, a group of Jewish suburbanites are alarmed by the influx of ultra-orthodox Holocaust survivors; they send Eli to represent them before the refugees and try and convince them that building a Yeshiva is against zoning laws in their Westchester town (nowadays, Roth's example would have been the Eruv).
They write the following, deeply troubling note to the leader of the refugees: "It is only since the war that Jews have been able to buy property here, and for Jews and Gentiles to live beside each other in amity. For this adjustment to be made, both Jews and Gentiles alike have had to give up some of their more extreme practices in order not to threaten or offend one another." And here is the troubling part which gives me goosebumps each time I read it: "Perhaps if such conditions had existed in prewar Europe, the persecution of the Jewish people…could not have been carried out with such success—in fact, might not have been carried out at all." They blame the victims of the Shoah for not assimilating enough. This group, who was so very clearly wrong, is the object of Roth's satire. It's the very same group and the very same distorted values and moral hypocrisy he criticizes repeatedly in his works. At the end of that story, by the way, Eli sides with the orthodox refugees, empathizes with them, believes they have a right to live in Westchester, and even becomes one of them.
As early as 1959 Roth voiced a sentiment which would become mainstream among people who came of age in the 1960s and 1970s not just in the Jewish community but beyond it. They wanted to transcend what they saw as their parents' generation's materialism, superficiality, hypocrisy, vacuousness, and lifestyle shaped by keeping up with the Joneses. People were thirsty for a life filled with greater meaning. Philip Roth's criticisms of American Jewish culture reflect ones that are very similar to the criticism Rav Hirsch had and orthodoxy continues to have of that same culture. A population of people who share those criticisms is one that is more open to turning to traditional values and adopting orthodox Judaism.
Second: what is Roth's criticism of the rabbis? Think back to the story I shared with you, The Conversion of the Jews. The rabbi in that story seems closed-minded. He refuses to entertain his student's question and dismisses it. He hits the student. In fact, the climax of the story involves the boy yelling from the synagogue rooftop, "You should never hit anybody about God!" This was the image of the orthodox rabbi in the public sphere, and these kinds of criticisms pushed orthodox rabbis to change their tone.
It's true there had always been friendly orthodox rabbis, but it became a requirement. In America, if rabbis want to attract followers, they must be open-minded, they should smile, they should be non-judgmental, and they should entertain all sorts of questions. Today, most modern orthodox schools and Yeshivot in America and Israel take pride in publicizing that no question is off limits. Rav Hirsch was this sort of rabbi in late 19th century Germany. In the late 1960s, rabbis who exhibited these qualities, such as Rabbi Norman Lamm, Rabbi Shlomo Riskin, and Reb Shlomo Carlebach, emerged as the spokespersons and institution builders of modern orthodoxy. The rest is history.
Orthodoxy in America could not have grown without these two cultural shifts: (1) a change in perspective and mainstream rejection of 1950s assimilationist Jewish values which in turn can yield an openness to returning to tradition, and (2) a change in attitude among rabbinic leadership so that those very people see a friendly face in the tradition and are actually attracted to it.
I don't know if Philip Roth inspired these trends, but his writing certainly reflected the need for them and it did come before their mass appeal and adoption. I also don't know if he was a self-hating Jew or wasn't or what that necessarily means, and maybe indeed it was wrong for him to air his grievances so publicly. But I do know that to improve, grow, and succeed, one must take good criticism from wherever it comes, and it wasn't until Orthodoxy internalized the critiques found in Philip Roth's writing that it was able to thrive. May our adherence to traditional Jewish values, to Torah and Mitzvot, our identities and our roots, and simultaneous friendliness and openness, indeed bring us, as Rav Hirsch suggested, the Bracha of Shalom: peace for ourselves, peace for our families and communities, and may it indeed also bring us peace with our neighbors.
Originally presented at Congregation Beth Abraham-Jacob on Shabbat Naso, May 26, 2018.


How Should You Think About Banco Products (India) Limited's (NSE:BANCOINDIA) Risks?
If you're interested in Banco Products (India) Limited (NSE:BANCOINDIA), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The other type, which cannot be diversified away, is the volatility of the entire market. Every stock in the market is exposed to this volatility, which is linked to the fact that stocks prices are correlated in an efficient market.
Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk' in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.
What does BANCOINDIA's beta value mean to investors?
Zooming in on Banco Products (India), we see it has a five year beta of 0.83. This is below 1, so historically its share price has been rather independent from the market. This means that — if history is a guide — buying the stock would reduce the impact of overall market volatility in many portfolios (depending on the beta of the portfolio, of course). Share price volatility is well worth considering, but most long term investors consider the history of revenue and earnings growth to be more important. Take a look at how Banco Products (India) fares in that regard, below.
How does BANCOINDIA's size impact its beta?
Banco Products (India) is a noticeably small company, with a market capitalisation of ₹15.63b. Most companies this size are not always actively traded. It is not unusual for very small companies to have a low beta value, especially if only low volumes of shares are traded. Even when they are traded more actively, the share price is often more susceptible to company specific developments than overall market volatility.
Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for BANCOINDIA's future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for BANCOINDIA's outlook.
Past Track Record: Has BANCOINDIA been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of BANCOINDIA's historicals for more clarity.
Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how BANCOINDIA measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.
Is SOCAM Development Limited's (HKG:983) Balance Sheet A Threat To Its Future?
Who Owns China Gaoxian Fibre Fabric Holdings Ltd (SGX:AZZ)?


text:
Drone deliveries are about to take off in the UK
Ali Reid
Online giant Amazon is working with the UK government and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to test drones for parcel delivery.
The vision is that the small, unmanned aircraft could deliver parcels within 30 minutes of ordering. At the moment, the drones can carry weights of up to 2.2 kg and fly at 50mph at a height of around 100m. Drones would land on a mat that customers place on their property.
There are three technological challenges to overcome before the drones could be considered safe for use. Firstly, Amazon will test flying the drones out of sight from the operator. Secondly, they will be testing sensor systems that can detect and avoid obstacles in the air. Finally, one person operating multiple drones at once will be assessed.
Paul Misener, from Amazon, said:
Using small drones for the delivery of parcels will improve customer experience, create new jobs in a rapidly growing industry, and pioneer new sustainable delivery methods to meet future demand. The UK is charting a path forward for drone technology that will benefit consumers, industry and society.
The US equivalent of the CAA has not permitted such testing, citing safety concerns. Technological problems and safety concerns are not the only issues, though. People have worries about privacy too (although Amazon says the delivery drones won't have cameras).
Professor Noel Sharkey, from Sheffield University said:
Forcing Elbit to close its Oldham factory shows the power of community organising, international solidarity and direct action
Amazon's Black Friday turns into a global disaster
All information is stealable and all drones hackable. Anybody could steal one to deliver drugs or bombs.
The Taliban have been hacking into military drones for years, stealing video feeds, using a bit of software they got from Sweden. Hezbollah did it for years with Israeli military drones.
In 2012 the US Army warned people that it couldn't help making accidental recordings while flying over houses; so filming people in their back gardens, for example.
Drones are often associated with warfare and death. But they are being developed for a host of civilian uses too. There are plans to use drones to deliver life-saving medical supplies to remote areas of Rwanda. In addition, Facebook is developing drones to bring the internet to developing countries.
Professor Sharkey calls for a wide discussion on the use of drones; before they become commonplace in UK skies.
Feature image via Flickr
Find out more about responsible robotics.
Palestine Action
Tom Anderson , 13th January 2022
Steve Topple , 26th November 2021
After 20 years of war, we're getting an Afghanistan inquiry. But it's not the one we need.
Joe Glenton , 11th September 2021
BREAKING: Judge has ruled in the court case trying to stop Corbyn's leadership bid
Owen Smith just proved how out of touch with workers he really is
secuirty

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: Given individual probabilities of n independent trials, how to calculate probability exactly k are successful? Given the individual probabilities P_i of n independent trials, 1≤i≤n, how can I calculate the probability exactly k trials are successful?
In the special case k=n, the probability of n successes is simply the product of the probabilities. But how can I calculate the probability of k successful trials for 1

Small examples I can calculate by hand:

*

*`P = [0.8, 0.7], k=1. The probability exactly one trial is successful is 0.8*(1-0.7) + (1-0.8)*0.7 = 0.38

*`P = [0.8, 0.7, 0.6], k=2. The probability exactly one trial is successful is 0.8*0.7*(1-0.6) + 0.8*(1-0.7)*0.6 + (1-0.8)*0.7*0.6 = 0.452

But this school method doesn't scale to large examples, because there are 'n choose k' terms in the sum. For example with n=50, k=20, P=[0.01,0.03,0.05,...,0.99], there would be "50 choose 20" terms, which is 47129212243960. Surely there must be a simpler way to calculate the probability.

A: Let P(i, j) be the probability that there's j successes in the first i trials.
Then P satisfies:
P(0, j) = 1 if j == 0 otherwise 0
P(i, j) = p_i * P(i-1, j-1) + (1-p_i) * P(i-1, j)

Here's a short Python program that computes the probability in O(nk) time and O(k) space, essentially using the above recurrence relations for each i iteratively. After i iterations of the p loop, the array entries P[j] holds the values of P(i, j). The code runs the three examples in your question (including the difficult one with n=50, k=20). The results are exact fractions, and the code runs essentially instantly.
from fractions import Fraction as F

def prob(ps, k):
    P = [1] + [0] * k
    for p in ps:
        for j in xrange(k, -1, -1):
            P[j] = p * (P[j-1] if j>0 else 0) + (1 - p) * P[j]
    return P[k]

for tc in [
        ([F(8, 10), F(7, 10)], 1),
        ([F(8, 10), F(7, 10), F(6, 10)], 2),
        ([F(1, 100) + F(2, 100) * i for i in xrange(50)], 20),
        ]:
    print 'ps = [%s]' % ', '.join(map(str, tc[0]))
    print 'k = %s' % tc[1]
    print 'probability = %s' % prob(tc[0], tc[1])
    print

Output:
ps = [4/5, 7/10]
k = 1
probability = 19/50

ps = [4/5, 7/10, 3/5]
k = 2
probability = 113/250

ps = [1/100, 3/100, 1/20, 7/100, 9/100, 11/100, 13/100, 3/20, 17/100, 19/100, 21/100, 23/100, 1/4, 27/100, 29/100, 31/100, 33/100, 7/20, 37/100, 39/100, 41/100, 43/100, 9/20, 47/100, 49/100, 51/100, 53/100, 11/20, 57/100, 59/100, 61/100, 63/100, 13/20, 67/100, 69/100, 71/100, 73/100, 3/4, 77/100, 79/100, 81/100, 83/100, 17/20, 87/100, 89/100, 91/100, 93/100, 19/20, 97/100, 99/100]
k = 20
probability = 6354741607005879635747506856181887568383689465714196334804901357522358768197915724707861/204800000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

A: Since your P_i are not assumed to be equal, the exact analytic expression is difficult to calculate, as you have noted, because of the large number of terms. The probability can be expressed as
Q[k] = sum[ subsets S of size k from n elements ] prod [indices j in S] P_j prod [indices l not in S] P_l
There are a lot of repeated terms in the product, and we could hope that this expression could be factored somehow. First note two things: this expression is a polynomial where each term either contains P_i or 1-P_i. Consider all the terms in the sum that include P_i. Factoring P_i out of this, the remaining part is is
sum[ subsets S' of size k-1 from n-1 elements (no i) ] prod [indices j in S'] P_j prod [indices l not in S'] P_l
This is another type of the same quantity you are computing, only where the index i is left out. Denoting this Q[k-1,-{i}] (i.e. k-1 terms, leaving out the set of indices {i}), and making a similar observation for the remaining terms containing1-P_i, the overall quantityQ[k,-{}]` can be computed using
Q[k,-leftout] = P_i Q[k-1,-(leftout U {i})] + (1-P_i) Q[k,-(leftout U {i})]
where i is some index not in the set leftout. This does not give a closed-form formula for your quantity, but can be computed using DP, as noted by @PaulHankin in the main comments.

A: The normal distribution gives highly accurate approximations near the expected number of terms.  Each binary probability p has expected value p and variance p(1-p).  So add them up and you get the expected number, and variance.  From that you get the appropriate approximating normal distribution.  The probability density of that normal distribution near k is close to the probability of getting k.
For an exact answer, just do dynamic programming to walk the array of probabilities and track the odds of each possible outcome.  Be warned that the numbers near the tail quickly get incredibly small.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Spy Film
Movies starring or featuring spies and depicting the world of espionage. These are either based on a true story (see John LeCarré's adaptations) or are fictional stories (such as the james Bond saga). This topic typically features spies from the 20th and 21st century.
North by Northwest (1959)
Cary Grant, Eva Marie Saint, James Mason, Martin Landau, Leo G. Carroll, Philip Ober, Josephine Hutchinson, Edward Platt, Adam Williams, Jessie Royce Landis, Alfred Hitchcock, Edward Binns
Mystery Spy Film Cult Movie
Rear Window (1954)
James Stewart, Grace Kelly, Thelma Ritter, Raymond Burr, Judith Evelyn, Wendell Corey
Notorious (1946)
Cary Grant, Ingrid Bergman, Claude Rains, Louis Calhern, Leopoldine Konstantin, Reinhold Schünzel, Moroni Olsen, Ivan Triesault, Alex Minotis, Wally Brown, Charles Mendl, Ricardo Costa, ...
Mystery Thriller Film noir Spy Film Nazism Psychological Thriller
La flor: Segunda parte (2018)
Elisa Carricajo, Valeria Correa, Pilar Gamboa, Laura Paredes
Drama Fantasy Mystery Cold War Spy Film
The Lives of Others (2006)
Ulrich Mühe, Martina Gedeck, Sebastian Koch, Ulrich Tukur, Thomas Thieme, Hans-Uwe Bauer, Volkmar Kleinert, Matthias Brenner, Charly Hübner, Herbert Knaup
Drama Thriller Spy Film Cold War 1980s
The Bureau (TV Series) (2015)
Eric Rochant, Hélier Cisterne, Antoine Chevrollier, Mathieu Demy, Samuel Collardey, Laïla Marrakchi, Jean-Marc Moutout, Elie Wajeman
Mathieu Kassovitz, Jean-Pierre Darroussin, Léa Drucker, Sara Giraudeau, Florence Loiret-Caille, Jonathan Zaccaï, Zineb Triki, Gilles Cohen, Pauline Etienne, Jules Sagot, Moe Bar-El, Alice Belaïdi, ...
TV Series Mystery Spy Film
Ivan's Childhood (1962)
Nikolay Burlyaev, Valentin Zubkov, Yevgeni Zharikov, Stepan Krylov, Nikolai Grinko, Valentina Malyavina
Drama War II World War Spy Film Childhood Nazism
5 Fingers (1952)
James Mason, Danielle Darrieux, Michael Rennie, Walter Hampden, Oscar Karlweis, Herbert Berghof, Ben Astar, John Wengraf
Mystery Spy Film Based On A True Story
Homeland (TV Series) (2011)
Howard Gordon (Creator), Alex Gansa (Creator), Gideon Raff (Creator), Lesli Linka Glatter, Michael Cuesta, Daniel Attias, Clark Johnson, Keith Gordon, Alex Graves, Tucker Gates, ...
Claire Danes, Damian Lewis, Mandy Patinkin, Rupert Friend, F. Murray Abraham, Morena Baccarin, Miranda Otto, Sebastian Koch, Nina Hoss, Elizabeth Marvel, Alexander Fehling, Sarah Sokolovic, ...
TV Series Thriller Mystery Psychological Thriller Cop Movies Spy Film Terrorism Remake
The Man Who Knew Too Much (1956)
James Stewart, Doris Day, Brenda De Banzie, Bernard Miles, Ralph Truman, Daniel Gélin, Mogens Wieth, Alan Mowbray, Hillary Brooke, Christopher Olsen, Reggie Nalder, Richard Wattis, ...
Mystery Spy Film Abduction / Disappearance Remake
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (TV Miniseries) (1979)
John Irvin
Alec Guinness, Ian Richardson, Michael Jayston, Ian Bannen, Hywel Bennett, Alexander Knox, Bernard Hepton, Michael Aldridge, Terence Rigby, Patrick Stewart, Anthony Bate, George Sewell, ...
TV Series Mystery Thriller TV Miniseries Cold War Spy Film
Iris (TV Series) (2009)
Yang Yun-ho, Kim Kyoo-Tae, Kim Tae-hun, Pyo Min-soo
Lee Byung-Hun, Kim Tae-hee, Jun-ho Jeong, Kim Seung-woo, Kim So-yeon, Ju-Sang Yun, Kim Yeong-Cheol, Nah Yoon, Jeong-kil Lee, Jang Hyuk, Lee Beom-soo, Da-hae Lee, ...
TV Series Thriller Action Romance Spy Film
Smiley's People (TV Miniseries) (1982)
Simon Langton
Alec Guinness, Eileen Atkins, Bernard Hepton, Bill Paterson, Tusse Silberg, Anthony Bate, Michael Lonsdale, Michael Byrne, Beryl Reid, Curd Jürgens, Michael Gough, Sian Phillips, ...
TV Series Mystery TV Miniseries Cold War Spy Film Sequel
Margaret Lockwood, Michael Redgrave, Dame May Whitty, Paul Lukas, Basil Radford, Naunton Wayne, Cecil Parker
Mystery Thriller Comedy Trains Psychological Thriller Spy Film Abduction / Disappearance
The 39 Steps (1935)
Robert Donat, Madeleine Carroll, Lucie Mannheim, Godfrey Tearle, Peggy Ashcroft, John Laurie, Helen Haye, Wylie Watson
Mystery Thriller Spy Film Crime
The Prisoner (TV Series) (1967)
George Markstein (Creator), Patrick McGoohan (Creator), Patrick McGoohan, Pat Jackson, Don Chaffey, David Tomblin, Robert Asher, Peter Graham Scott
Patrick McGoohan, Leo McKern, Colin Gordon, Angelo Muscat, Nadia Gray, Eric Portman, Jane Merrow, Georgina Cookson, Kenneth Griffith, George Baker, Patrick Cargill, Guy Doleman, ...
TV Series Mystery Sci-Fi Abduction / Disappearance Spy Film
Archer (TV Series) (2009)
Adam Reed (Creator), Bryan Fordney, Adam Reed
TV Series Animation Mystery Spy Film Parody Adult Animation
The Americans (TV Series) (2013)
Joseph Weisberg (Creator), Daniel Sackheim, Adam Arkin, John Dahl, Thomas Schlamme, Kevin Dowling, Alex Chapple, Holly Dale, Jean de Segonzac, Chris Long
Keri Russell, Matthew Rhys, Holly Taylor, Keidrich Sellati, Noah Emmerich, Annet Mahendru, Richard Thomas, Alison Wright, Lev Gorn, Costa Ronin, Dylan Baker, Brandon J. Dirden, ...
TV Series Drama 1980s Spy Film Cold War
Spooks (MI-5) (TV Series) (2002)
David Wolstencroft (Creator), Alrick Riley, Bharat Nalluri, Sam Miller, Omar Madha, Julian Holmes, Edward Hall, Rob Bailey, Justin Chadwick, Julian Simpson, ...
Peter Fith, Hugh Simon, David Oyelowo, Keeley Hawes, Matthew Macfadyen, Jenny Agutter, Graeme Mearns, Rupert Penry-Jones, Nicola Walker, Miranda Raison, Hermione Norris, Rory MacGregor, ...
TV Series Drama Thriller Spy Film
The Honourable Woman (TV Miniseries) (2014)
Hugo Blick
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Stephen Rea, Lubna Azabal, Andrew Buchan, Katherine Parkinson, Lindsay Duncan, Janet McTeer, Eve Best, Yigal Naor, Tobias Menzies, Genevieve O'Reilly
TV Series Drama Thriller TV Miniseries Arab-Israeli conflict Abduction / Disappearance Spy Film
Spies (1928)
Rudolf Klein-Rogge, Gerda Maurus, Willy Fritsch, Lupu Pick, Fritz Rasp, Lien Deyers, Craighall Sherry, Paul Hörbiger, Hertha von Walther, Grete Berger, Julius Falkenstein
Thriller Drama Spy Film Crime Silent Film
Matt Damon, Franka Potente, Chris Cooper, Brian Cox, Clive Owen, Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, Gabriel Mann, Julia Stiles, Orso Maria Guerrini, Tim Dutton, Walton Goggins
Action Mystery Thriller Spy Film Remake
Dishonored (1931)
Marlene Dietrich, Victor McLaglen, Gustav von Seyffertitz, Warner Oland, Lew Cody, Barry Norton
Mystery Drama Spy Film Prostitution
Matt Damon, Joan Allen, David Strathairn, Julia Stiles, Paddy Considine, Scott Glenn, Albert Finney, Joey Ansah, Edgar Ramirez, Colin Stinton, Corey Johnson, Daniel Brühl, ...
Action Thriller Mystery Spy Film Sequel
Ministry of Fear (1944)
Ray Milland, Marjorie Reynolds, Carl Esmond, Hillary Brooke, Dan Duryea, Alan Napier, Erskine Sanford, Percy Waram
Mystery Thriller Film noir Spy Film Crime Nazism Psychological Thriller
Top Secret! (1984)
Jim Abrahams, David Zucker, Jerry Zucker
Val Kilmer, Lucy Gutteridge, Omar Sharif, Christopher Villiers, Michael Gough, Jeremy Kemp, Warren Clarke, Harry Ditson, Jim Carter, Eddie Tagoe, Peter Cushing, Billy J. Mitchell, ...
Comedy Broad Comedy Parody Music Spy Film Cult Movie
The Company (TV Miniseries) (2007)
Mikael Salomon
Chris O'Donnell, Michael Keaton, Alfred Molina, Rory Cochrane, Ted Atherton, Alessandro Nivola, Natascha McElhone, Tom Hollander, Ulrich Thomsen, Erika Marozsán
TV Series Thriller Drama TV Miniseries Psychological Thriller Spy Film Cold War 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s Based On A True Story
The Little Soldier (1963)
Michel Subor, Anna Karina, Henri-Jacques Huet, Paul Beauvais, Laszlo Szabo
Drama 1950s Politics Spy Film Nouvelle vague (New Wave)
Matt Damon, Joan Allen, Brian Cox, Karl Urban, Julia Stiles, Franka Potente, Karel Roden, Gabriel Mann, Marton Csokas, Tom Gallop, John Bedford Lloyd, Michelle Monaghan, ...
Action Thriller Mystery Sequel Spy Film
Richard Burton, Claire Bloom, Oskar Werner, Peter Van Eyck, Sam Wanamaker, George Voskovec, Rupert Davies, Cyril Cusack, Michael Hordern, Robert Hardy, Bernard Lee, Esmond Knight, ...
Mystery Spy Film Cold War
Torn Curtain (1966)
Paul Newman, Julie Andrews, Lila Kedrova, Hansjoerg Felmy, Tamara Toumanova, David Opatoshu, Ludwig Donath, Wolfgang Kieling
Five Graves to Cairo (1943)
Franchot Tone, Erich von Stroheim, Anne Baxter, Akim Tamiroff, Peter Van Eyck, Fortunio Bonanova, Konstantin Shayne, Fred Nurney, Miles Mander
Mystery War Spy Film II World War Africa
Balkan Spy (1984)
Dusan Kovacevic, Bozidar 'Bota' Nikolic
Danilo 'Bata' Stojkovic, Bora Todorovic, Mira Banjac, Sonja Savic, Zvonko Lepetic, Velimir 'Bata' Zivojinovic, Predrag Lakovic
Comedy Spy Film Black Comedy
The Spy Gone North (2018)
Yun Jong-bin
Hwang Jung-min, Lee Sung-min, Cho Jin-woong, Ji-hun Ju, Ryoo Seong-hyeon, Kim Hong-pa
Thriller Spy Film Based On A True Story 1990s
Eye of the Needle (1981)
Richard Marquand
Donald Sutherland, Kate Nelligan, Christopher Cazenove, Ian Bannen, Alex McCrindle, Stephen Mackenna, Bill Nighy
Thriller II World War Spy Film 1940s
Deutschland 83 (TV Series) (2015)
Edward Berger, Samira Radsi
Alexander Beyer, Sonja Gerhardt, Sylvester Groth, Jonas Nay, Ulrich Noethen, Maria Schrader, Ludwig Trepte, Lisa Tomaschewsky, Godehard Giese, Uwe Preuss, Anna von Berg, Carina N. Wiese
TV Series Thriller 1980s Spy Film
Where Eagles Dare (1968)
Richard Burton, Clint Eastwood, Mary Ure, Patrick Wymark, Michael Hordern, Peter Barkworth, Derren Nesbitt, Anton Diffring, Donald Houston, Robert Beatty, Ingrid Pitt
War Adventure Action II World War Spy Film
Killing Eve (TV Series) (2018)
Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Creator), Jon East, Damon Thomas, Harry Bradbeer, Francesca Gregorini, Lisa Brühlmann
Sandra Oh, Jodie Comer, Fiona Shaw, Kim Bodnia, Owen McDonnell, Kirby Howell-Baptiste, Sean Delaney, Darren Boyd, Helena Holmes, David Agranov, Edward Akrout, David Bertrand, ...
TV Series Thriller Crime Serial Killers Spy Film
Three Days of the Condor (1975)
Robert Redford, Faye Dunaway, Cliff Robertson, Max von Sydow, John Houseman, Addison Powell, Tina Chen, Walter McGinn
Mystery Spy Film
The Night Manager (TV Miniseries) (2016)
Tom Hiddleston, Hugh Laurie, Olivia Colman, Tom Hollander, Elizabeth Debicki, David Harewood, Antonio de la Torre, Katherine Kelly, Tobias Menzies, Neil Morrissey, Michael Nardone, Alistair Petrie, ...
TV Series Thriller Action Drama TV Miniseries Spy Film
Get Smart (TV Series) (1965)
Buck Henry (Creator), Mel Brooks (Creator), Gary Nelson, Bruce Bilson, Don Adams, James Komack, Earl Bellamy, Jay Sandrich, Alan Rafkin, Frank McDonald, ...
Don Adams, Barbara Feldon, Edward Platt, Robert Karvelas, Rose Michtom, Bernie Kopell, David Ketchum, King Moody
TV Series Comedy Cop Movies Sitcom Parody Spy Film
The Great Spy Chase (1964)
Lino Ventura, Francis Blanche, Bernard Blier, Mireille Darc, Jess Hahn, André Weber, Louis Arbessier, Françoise Giret, Violette Marceau
Comedy Thriller Spy Film Cold War
Guy Hamilton
Sean Connery, Honor Blackman, Gert Fröbe, Shirley Eaton, Tania Mallet, Harold Sakata, Bernard Lee, Cec Linder, Lois Maxwell, Martin Benson, Desmond Llewelyn
Adventure Action James Bond Spy Film
The Wrong Mans (TV Series) (2013)
James Corden (Creator), Mathew Baynton (Creator), Jim Field Smith
Mathew Baynton, James Corden, Sarah Solemani, Tom Basden, Paul Cawley, Chandeep Uppal, Dawn French, Nick Moran, Emilia Fox, David Calder, Benedict Wong, Andrew Koji, ...
TV Series Comedy Thriller Black Comedy Spy Film Crime
Morituri (1965)
Bernhard Wicki
Marlon Brando, Yul Brynner, Janet Margolin, Trevor Howard, Martin Benrath, Hans Christian Blech, Wally Cox, Max Haufler, Rainer Penkert, William Redfield, Oscar Beregi, Martin Brandt, ...
War II World War Spy Film
Martin Campbell
Daniel Craig, Eva Green, Mads Mikkelsen, Jeffrey Wright, Judi Dench, Caterina Murino, Giancarlo Giannini, Simon Abkarian, Isaach de Bankole, Jesper Christensen, Ivana Milicevic, Sebastien Foucan
Action Thriller James Bond Spy Film Poker
The Patriots (1994)
Eric Rochant
Yvan Attal, Sandrine Kiberlain, Nancy Allen, Richard Masur, Allen Garfield, Yossi Banai, Emmanuelle Devos, Maurice Bénichou
Thriller Spy Film
Foreign Correspondent (1940)
Joel McCrea, Laraine Day, Herbert Marshall, George Sanders, Albert Basserman, Robert Benchley, Edmund Gwenn, Eduardo Ciannelli, Martin Kosleck, Harry Davenport, Barbara Pepper, Charles Halton, ...
The Counterfeit Traitor (1962)
William Holden, Lilli Palmer, Hugh Griffith, Klaus Kinski, Carl Raddatz, Ernst Schröder, Charles Régnier, Ingrid van Bergen, Helo Gutschwager, Wolfgang Preiss, Werner Peters, Erica Beer
Adventure Thriller Spy Film II World War
Gramps Is in the Resistance (1983)
Jean-Marie Poiré
Christian Clavier, Michel Galabru, Roland Giraud, Gérard Jugnot, Martin Lamotte, Dominique Lavanant, Jacqueline Maillan, Jacques Villeret, Josiane Balasko, Michel Blanc, Jean-Claude Brialy, Jean Carmet, ...
Comedy War II World War Spy Film Family Relationships


text:
Capcom Hanging Talisman On Network/Live
April 16, 2007 Ben-Dutka — No Comments
The PlayStation Store and Xbox Live Marketplace are great venues for bringing back the classic past. Capcom knows all about classics, but this one wasn't originally theirs. The publisher has announced they'll be bringing the Games Workshop board game, Talisman , to the Store, Marketplace, and PC this winter.
The game appears to be a faithful recreation of the board/card game, as it will include a virtual board with 3D characters and backdrops. Up to four players can play both online and off, and use any one of 25 available characters, and we'll even have the benefit of voice chat. The game will be pretty basic when it's initially released, but Capcom is likely planning several downloadable updates that may include more characters, alternate endings, etc.
Big Rooster studios is at the helm for this unique project, and for fans of the 1983 board game – oh, they're out there, all right – it should make for a fine addition to the online stores.
Related Game(s): Talisman


NOOR GHERZADDINE Talks Of Her Debut Feature, Lebanon And Future Plans.
The London Tree: Hi Noor, It's a pleasure to have you.
Noor Gharzeddine: Thank you so much.
The London Tree: Filmmakers who have wanted to Direct and Act have always had an inclination towards arts since the early stages of their lives. If this is the case with you, then who was the artistic inspiration behind you who fueled your love for film making?
The London Tree: As ARE YOU GLAD I'M HERE is your directorial debut feature, what aspect of the script interested you the most to direct it?
Noor Gherzaddine: Samuel Anderson, our screenwriter, and I developed the story of Are You Glad I'm Here together. We've known each other since college and knew we wanted to make a film together, specifically in Lebanon, where my family is from and where he'd studied Arabic. So, I always knew that whatever script he wrote would become my first feature and I think that championing the film together allowed us to make it happen on our own terms. I love this script because there's something in it for everyone- it's always hard for me to assign the film just one genre or style, and I think that's what's so entertaining about it.
The London Tree: The settings of the film within the interiors, is very aesthetically neat, clean and very pleasing to the eye. Would it be right to say that a woman did all the arts and production designing?
The London Tree: Many films are now coming out which focus on the stories of women which highlight their roles in the society, the challenges they face in public and in private life. Do you think that using the medium of film, an awareness is being brought into public in such a way that has never been done before?
The London Tree: Tess Harisson has done a wonderful job in her role, as well as Marwa Khalil. Were they your first choice or did you go through a rigorous task to find the perfect actresses to play their respective roles?
Noor Gherzaddine: Most of our cast is Lebanese, and we held auditions in Lebanon for about a month, so I got to meet tons of amazing Lebanese actors, one of which was Marwa Khalil. We hadn't known her beforehand although she's well known in the region, but her audition really struck me and even though I've watched the film a thousand times I still love watching her on screen to this day. Tess and I had worked together on a previous project, in 2014, and I had a really great experience with her, but at the time of our auditions I didn't know if we could afford to bring someone over from America, or if she was available etc. She was always in the back of my mind as we tried to find an American actress local to Beirut so we eventually just found a way to make it all work! She'd never been to Lebanon before so her real life experience mirrored that of her on screen character and I think that was interesting for her as an actress. The two women also collaborated really well together.
The London Tree: Getting mentored by well known filmmakers like Peter Hutton and Kelly Reichardt, how important do you think it is to have an influence of your mentors when making a film for the first time?
Noor Gherzaddine: I was lucky to have great film professors and I'm sure that factored into my confidence as I began this project. But I don't think you're ever actively thinking of just one influence as you make decisions in your own work- you're more of a culmination of your influences and experiences. Even if you don't go to film school or have a mentor in your field, there's so much to learn from just experiencing life in an open way; being curious and understanding of different things / people and making sure to write down all your thoughts etc. Finding filmmakers who are a little ahead of me in the process and asking them a million questions has also been a helpful form of mentor ship for me as a first-time filmmaker.
The London Tree: While shooting the film in Lebanon, did you at anytime feel like you were out of your comfort zone and taking a challenge?
The London Tree: Now that your debut feature has made a successful breakthrough into different film festivals, what kind of films should we expect to see from you in the future?
Noor Gherzaddine: All sorts! I have an idea for a very surreal David Lynch inspired Fight Club/ Eyes Wide Shut feeling film that takes place in New York, as well as a mockumentary I want to film in Lebanon. I'm also developing a scripted TV sitcom and writing a low budget feature inspired by some of my own feelings/ experiences (with a touch of magical realism) and perhaps that could turn into my next directing endeavor. I'd also love to work on more short-term projects, like music videos, as it's always very inspiring to be on set and collaborate with new people! Now I just need to find the time and money to do it all.
The London Tree: In the end, would you like to give a friendly advice to up and coming directors?
Noor Gherzaddine: Don't overthink your first project or else you'll never do it! Sometimes you might want to showcase all your talents/ styles/ thoughts and it can become overwhelming. Pick a location, a character, an event, and make a minimal, yet well executed film, and that will open the door to greater opportunities. Also know that film is a collaborative art, and you need to find people to work with! Form a mini film collective where you can act in and produce your friends film and then they can do the same for you. Learn about the film business even if you just want to be a director – they only teach you about half the process in school! Take a filmmaker or producer out for coffee and have them talk to you about the whole process (festivals, sales, marketing, distribution etc.) Lastly, know that there will be periods of time when no one else cares whether or not you're making movies; no one is going to give you permission to do it or beg you to do it, you have to do it anyway.
The London Tree: Thank you so much for taking out time and talking to me. I pray for the best in your future endeavours.
Noor Gherzaddine: You are welcome, and thank you for your prayers. I appreciate it a lot.
Special Thanks to the London Flair PR for making this interview possible.


text:
Ding Lei
Internet champ saved by a Forrest Gump moment
Mar 19, 2010 (WiC 53)
Ding: dotcom hero
Born in 1971 in Ningbo, Ding Lei showed so little talent at school that his teacher blamed him for "hindering the whole class". He blossomed late, and got into a top technical university in Chengdu. However, bored by his course on microwave communication, he cut classes and attended lectures on computing instead. On graduation in 1993 he worked for the Ningbo Telecommunications Bureau.
Against strong opposition from his family, he soon quit this job and moved to Guangzhou. He made friends with Tencent founder, Ma Huateng (see WiC37, Who's Hu) with whom he discussed the prospects of the internet. He founded NetEase in 1997 in an eight square metre office without air-conditioning. Originally it sold email software.
Failure 1.0
By 2000 web portals like Yahoo! were becoming active in China and Ding decided to sink his software earnings into building one. He moved the company to Beijing and listed on Nasdaq. However, tensions quickly rose as the Nasdaq crashed and Ding's co-founders left. The advertising business model wasn't working and he became depressed. In 2001 NetEase was suspended by Nasdaq after failing to submit an accurate financial report. Ding considered selling the company, and was offered $85 million.
Tom Hanks may find this hard to believe, but according to Southern People Weekly, Ding reinvented himself after watching Forrest Gump five times in a row. He was also helped by a timely investment from Duan Yongping (WiC49, Who's Hu). And when China Mobile came up with a new revenue sharing model that allowed websites to take a slice of SMS profits, Ding was suddenly able to monetise his user base. On January 2, 2002 NetEase resumed trading on Nasdaq. Less than two years later it was trading 108 times higher than its low point.
Southern People Weekly comments that Ding went "from heaven to hell" in two years, and by the age of 32 was named China's richest man. He further expanded the business by building and operating online games. Rising ad revenues also boosted earnings. NetEase made a net profit of Rmb1.9 billion in 2009.
War incident
NetEase was recently in a regulatory spat (see WiC38) that briefly stopped it operating the popular online game World of Warcraft.
Ding ranked 29 in the 2009 Hurun rich list with assets of Rmb19 billion. He is a great believer in the merits of Chinese traditional medicine, and a follower of medicine master, Deng Tietao.
Chinese CharacterScion of prominent political dynasty goes after Hong Kong broadcaster
AgricultureChina's soya bean industry complains of foreign competition
China ConsumerKFC could be the first big brand to make more money in China than the US
And FinallyWhy China's two most popular novelists are feuding
China ConsumerComputer giant stumbles
More on NetEase
Game over for Activision?
A successful 14-year Sino-US partnership in the gaming world 'decouples'
A feud over standardising smartphone chargers
Unlucky thirteen?
Alibaba's 13th Singles' Day deliberately muted but livestreamers still shine


text:
Q: Determining Rookie Years in Lahman Database I'm using the MySQL version of the Lahman Baseball Database and I'm having trouble trying to determine the year a player lost their rookie standing. The rules for an MLB player losing rookie standing are:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

Is there a query that can be run to do this for Batters and Pitchers, or is this something that would be programmatically done?

A: This can be done in SQL.  How it is done will be based upon what is the most optimal way of doing it.  Most likely it could be done with one query like so (pseudo-code):
SELECT Master.*
FROM Master
LEFT JOIN Batting ON Master.player_id = Batting.player_id
LEFT JOIN Pitching ON Master.player_id = Pitching.player_id
WHERE Batting.AB > 130 OR Pitching.IPOuts > (50 x 3)
OR Master.DaysActive > 45

That last part of the WHERE statement is a bit iffy because I don't find anything like that in the data from your database provider.  I see active games but that isn't the same thing.  The Appearances table might get you close but that is about all you can do.
Here is the data I based my pseudo-code off of:
http://baseball1.com/files/database/readme58.txt
I did find another guy who was doing something similar to what you are doing (including calculating who is a rookie).  Here is his site (with code):
http://baseballsimulator.com/blog/category/database/

A: Using the Lahman Database you can figure out Rookies by At Bats (>130) and Innings Pitched (>50), however there isn't anything for service time during the 25 man roster (non-Sept) limit.
You would need retrosheets {http://www.retrosheet.org/game.htm} data to do that.
The queries below would give you ALL of the rookies by At Bats and Innings Pitched, however the service time rookies would be the exception. There's only a few of those as teams don't tend to keep rookies on the MLB roster and not play them. The lose development time (not playing) and accelerate their service time to lose out on controlled years. So if you're happy with that, these tables will do.
You can use this as a Xref table with batters or pitchers to highlight their rookie year. Or you could add an extra column to batters and pitchers with the RookieYr distinction (advise against it as if you want to add new seasons to your Lahman DB - less customizing needed).
/************************************ Create MLB Rookie Xref Table **********************************************
-- Sort Out Batters who accumulate 130 AB
-- Sort Out Pitchers who accumulate 50 IP
-- Define Rookie Year, Drop off years previous and years after
-- Can be updated Annually using "player ID not in (select distinct playerID from Xref_RookieYr)
-- Using the Sean Lahman Database
-- Authored By Paul DeVos {www.linkedin.com/in/devosp/}
*****************************************************************************************************************/

/****** Query uses T-SQL, Query ran in MS SQL 2012 - you may need to tweek for other platorms or versions. ******/

--Step 1 - Run this for hitter accumulated ABs and when Rookie Year (130 Career At Bats)
Select
    concat(m.nameFirst, ' ', m.nameLast) as Name,
    b.PlayerID,
    b.yearID,
    m.debut,
    sum(b.ab) over (partition by b.playerID order by b.playerID, b.yearID) as CumulativeAB,
    null as CumulativeIP,  -- Place Holder for Rookie Pitchers Insert
    case when sum(b.ab) over (partition by b.playerID order by b.playerID, b.yearID) >= 130 then b.yearID end as RookieYR
into #temp_rookie_year
from
    [master] m
    inner join Batting b
    on m.playerID=b.playerID
-- Selects Position Players
where b.playerID not in (select distinct f.playerID from Fielding f where f.pos = 'P')

--Step 2 - Run this to get accumulated IP and Rookie Year (50 Career IP)
Insert into #temp_rookie_year
    (
        Name, PlayerID, YearID, Debut, CumulativeAB, CumulativeIP, RookieYR
    )
Select
    concat(m.nameFirst, ' ', m.nameLast) as Name,
    p.PlayerID,
    p.yearID,
    m.debut,
    null as CumulativeAB,
    sum(p.IPouts) over (partition by p.playerID order by p.playerID, p.yearID) as CumulativeIP,
    case when sum(p.IPouts) over (partition by p.playerID order by p.playerID, p.yearID) >= 150 then p.yearID end as RookieYR
from [master] m
    inner join pitching p
    on m.playerID=p.playerID
--Chooses Pitchers
where p.playerID in (select distinct f.playerID from Fielding f where f.pos = 'P')

--Step 3 Run this - sorts out the rookie year into Rookie Xref Table
select Name, PlayerID, min(RookieYr) as RookieYear
into #Xref_RookieYr
from #temp_rookie_year
--where name = 'Hank Aaron'
group by Name, PlayerID
order by RookieYear desc

--Step 4 - run IF you want to remove players who never lost rookie status (cup of cofee players, etc - anyone under 130 AB or 50 IP)
select * from #Xref_RookieYr
order by playerID

Delete from #Xref_RookieYr where RookieYear is null

select * from #Xref_RookieYr
order by playerID

/*****************************************************************************************************************
You can change drop the "#" in front of the table (and name it whatever you want) when you want a permanent table.
If you leave it, it'll drop off when you close the program. e.g. Xref_Rookie_2013
*****************************************************************************************************************/


In all honesty, few things are as ugly as reklamprydda sportbags. Still insist on every other to travel with this abomination to the baggage. To see a person in an impeccable suit and then a mediocre tote bag that is decorated with the company's logo all over the bag hurts like the soul. Advertising bags should fall under the same category as advertising jackets, företagspins and polo shirts with profile press. At the bottom of the style ladder among finished knotted ties and designer jeans with distasteful blaffiga press.
Although a weekend bag is not a basic garments, it is an important part of the wardrobe. A complete gardreob consists not only of clothes and shoes for everyday use. A complete wardrobe need garments and accessories to meet all possible situations with style. Not least for travel.
It may seem like an expensive to spend 3-4000 on a bag that will be used moderately, but a stylish bag is an investment for life. At the same time, it must be said that a bag of suitable size obviously lends itself well for other occasions, not least as a bag for the exercise. Too few things can elevate an outfit as a stylish bag.
Can I Wear A Metallic Sweater To The Office?


text:
Trump 'apoplectic' in phone call with UK's Johnson about Huawei decision: report
By Marty Johnson - 02/06/20 02:06 PM EST
President Trump Donald TrumpGiuliani used provisional ballot to vote in 2020 election, same method he disparaged in fighting to overturn results Trump gets lowest job approval rating in final days as president Fox News' DC managing editor Bill Sammon to retire MORE reportedly had a heated conversation with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week after the United Kingdom allowed the Chinese tech manufacturer Huawei to have a role in the U.K.'s 5G cellphone networks.
Sources in both London and Washington described the phone call between the two world leaders as "apoplectic" to the Financial Times.
The Trump administration has long opposed Huawei having any stake in next-generation cellular networks because of national security concerns.
Still, British officials with knowledge of the call told the publication that they were surprised by the ferocity of Trump's language.
The White House and Downing Street both declined comment to the FT, with the White House only providing a blanket release about last Tuesday's call that read: "Today, President Donald J Trump spoke with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom. The two leaders discussed critical regional and bilateral issues, including telecommunications security."
Since the call, the two sides have agreed to limit the use of Huawei products in the U.K. Additionally, Attorney General William Barr Bill BarrBarr told Trump that theories about stolen election were 'bulls---': report Justice Dept. blasts Mexico's decision to close probe of former defense minister Acting attorney general condemns Capitol riots, warns 'no tolerance' for violence at Biden inauguration MORE suggested on Thursday that the U.S. should think about buying controlling stakes in tech companies Ericsson and Nokia to create more international competition.
"It's all very well to tell our friends and allies they shouldn't install Huawei's, but whose infrastructure are they going to install?" Barr said.
The Huawei decision is just one of the policy areas that the two allies have diverged on as of late, including the Iran nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of in 2018.
Tags Huawei U.K. China United Kingdom Boris Johnson Donald Trump William Barr Criticism of Huawei 5G 5G networks


Decorating the walls of the shop. The very first factor you have to attack may be the walls. A bare wall provides one easy message…that is blank. Actually, without correct office or shop décor around the walls, it can make the area very unwelcoming and dull. Who do you consider would enter a store which has bare walls that sings an uninviting song? To lure your clients just to walk to your shop and buy something out of your shop, you will need to make use of the right color for that walls…some shade or color that draws the best customers. If you would like the walls décor to provide out a hot and welcoming feeling, use a more dark shade however, if you wish to help make your customers feel good to stay in the store, color your walls having a lighter shade. Then apply certain clever slatwall panels to brighten and display your product or service.
Provide your shop décor an alive feel. Aside from decorating the shop's walls, you will need to add plants in to the shop décor too. Getting a few plants will instantly provide the place an 'alive' feel as well as your staff and those who enter your shop will feel less taken off the outdoors world. Each kind of plant provides different signals, so have fun with the kind of plants that you employ to brighten your shop. Whether it's affordable, assign anyone to enter into your shop to sort out the décor and accentuate the position from the plants with lighting. Getting plants in your shop décor could be tricky, though because plants require maintenance. However, you are able to hire individuals to take proper care of your plants for you personally or you might really 'rent' the plants for the office décor.
Don't combine concepts and furniture inside your shop. Conserve a consistent look during your shop's décor. It might provide the customers a really mix-and-match feel once they enter your shop once the furniture don't match. For example, you cannot perfectly decorate your shop by having an antique piece plus a modern searching sofa inside your shop. It might provide the customers a very odd feeling. What you would like to prevent together with your shop décor is allow it a 'thrown together' feel…you would like it to shout, CLASS ACT rather of 'last minute tossed in together'.
Obvious the clutter. Not to mention, just like any professional shop décor artiste or designer let you know, clutter is definitely an absolute no-no. It has been stated before so bare this obvious in your thoughts…a obvious desk clears the mind before you sit lower and begin your projects. This principle pertains to your shop décor. Keep stuff that shouldn't be observed in your shop hidden inside a storeroom…for example, stuff you don't use very frequently or products you don't plan to sell. Don't leave boxes of merchandise laying thrown everywhere. Ask your employees to regularly check and arrange these products around the display areas, the desk, the slatwall screen not to mention, the walls. Some customers tend to get products by leaving them somewhere they do not belong. Your employees should try to come back the product to where they belong.


This six-week kickstart will help you reinvent your career, develop your personal branding materials and get in amazing shape.
fulfillment – both in what you're doing and the money you're making.
We're going to get badass about career development and healthy, strong, toned bodies.
Book a call if you want to learn more to see if this program is a fit.


The Dieterich Women's Club is a group of women helping to make Dieterich a better community. The group meets the first Wednesday of every month at the Kluthe Center. For more information on the Dieterich Women's Club please contact the Irma Horn at (217) 925-5380.


text:
Wittenberg é uma vila localizada no estado norte-americano de Wisconsin, no Condado de Shawano.

Demografia
Segundo o censo norte-americano de 2000, a sua população era de 1177 habitantes.
Em 2006, foi estimada uma população de 1116, um decréscimo de 61 (-5.2%).

Geografia
De acordo com o United States Census Bureau tem uma área de
4,2 km², dos quais 4,2 km² cobertos por terra e 0,0 km² cobertos por água. Wittenberg localiza-se a aproximadamente 359 m acima do nível do mar.

Localidades na vizinhança
O diagrama seguinte representa as localidades num raio de 16 km ao redor de Wittenberg.

Ligações externas

Vilas do Wisconsin

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia