Home » Will You Be Forced To Loan Your Savings To the Government?
Do We "Encourage" Instability Worldwide to Attract US Treasury Investors?
Kevin: Well, Dave, you called it. About three to four years ago you were talking about what would be the next step as the central banks start stepping back from quantitative easing and low interest rates. The next step, of course, in the Keynesian model is fiscal spending. I remember three to four years ago you said what we will probably see is either war – that's a good way to spend some money and pull the economy out – or we will see a massive public works spending project announced by the next president. Well, here we go, on Monday that's exactly what we heard from Trump, the Keynesian model.
David: That's right. As Bill King likes to say, Keynes on steroids. Trump has gone Keynes on steroids. 4.4 trillion dollars is the budget. 1.5 trillion is the public works scheme. That is actually a pretty significant chunk of change.
Kevin: Yes, well, you can borrow money, and you can borrow money, but you still have to find people to lend it to. So today I would like to unpack that a little bit later, Dave. I know the story on borrowing money a lot of times hinges on what happens to the U.S. dollar. If you're going to loan money to a country, you certainly don't want to loan money to a country from outside where you know that currency is going to fall.
David: There has been this assumed advantage in the U.S. because we have the world's reserve currency status. People have to, to some degree, have dollars in their banks and their banking system, and it gives us the opportunity to inflate away a part of our liabilities. Whether it is a 2% target inflation rate, consider yourself on the creditor side of the equation. If you have lent money to the United States and we're deliberately paying you back with cheaper and cheaper currency over time, 2% is the stated, maybe we overshoot to 3% or 4%, maybe we fudge the number and are constantly inflating at 3% or 4% – we are taking advantage of our creditors.
Some of the things to watch for 2018 as it unfolds, first and foremost I think is the U.S. dollar. And if the U.S. dollar continues to fall as it did in 2017 there are significant implications for the funding of U.S. debt. So again, we come back to, we have spending projects coming, we have a tax deal in the works now, and that is one possibility is that the dollar continues to fall just as it did in 2017. It will affect the U.S. debt markets, it will affect the equity markets here in the United States.
Kevin: But if it continues to rise, Dave – talking about robbing Peter to pay Paul – it pulls money outside of this emerging market. Look at what happened this last week. As the stock market fell it was the emerging markets that really continued to take the hit.
David: Now, when you say continues to rise, that would be sort of in the last week, because the U.S. dollar has had not much of a bounce here in 2017. But if the U.S. dollar reversed course from 2017 where it was in freefall, begins to rise in earnest, you could see capital flows into the United States. That would be very supportive for a debt financing needs. But as you mention, in turn, it would cripple the emerging markets because essentially what you have is savings flowing from overseas into the U.S. markets. In that case, you have an emerging markets crisis, an unwind, and potentially, a full-blown global credit crisis. That is something that Russell Napier talks about in recent comments. He has been a frequent commentary guest here at the McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Kevin: He wrote one of the best books either one of us have read, The Anatomy of the Bear.
David: If you're looking for an investment book, a sort of a tome to study and be familiar with, I would say The Anatomy of the Bear is a top ten read. He is concerned with this question today – who is going to fund the U.S. government?
Kevin: I know there is an active discussion between you and your dad right now as to the direction of the dollar and what that means for gold. There is a lot of conversation about the dollar, and I think there is an assumption, Dave, and I think the side that your dad might be taking, too, is that if the dollar falls that is really good for gold. I think what your point right now is, that really doesn't matter, does it?
David: If you say, on a long-term basis, say, on a 100-year basis, what is the stability of gold relative to fiat paper currencies, you could say, "Yes, we have a dollar problem, we have a euro problem, we have a yen problem, we have a British pound problem, because they are all fiat, and they are all trading lower relative to gold over a long period of time. But just because that principle applies over the long-term does not mean that it applies in the short run, as in there is some sort of axiomatic relationship – dollar goes up, gold must go down, or vice-versa.
A lot of conversation today around the dollar. I want to come back to that here in a minute, but I do want to mention something on gold because I'm writing an article for my dad's newsletter on that topic. That's for next month's McAlvany Intelligence Advisor. Make sure you call and get a copy of that. It's still a few weeks away before you could order it. But my dad argues, as you mentioned, that U.S. dollar weakness is a prime driver of the gold market. I would argue, as you suggested, that it doesn't really matter. You have supply and demand, which are, in the near future, the prime determinant of the metals and the direction of their price.
Kevin: The foreign buyers have been not only active, but record kind of activity, though not here in the United States, necessarily.
David: The next round of buying is likely to include a catalyst which will be inspirational for U.S. investors to join the party. This is after two years, you investors have not yet come to the party. But as you mentioned, foreign demand has been increasing. Chinese demand for jewelry was up 10.4% in 2017. You think, "Does that really matter? Gosh, who really cares about who is buying what from a jewelry store?" About 694 tons was consumed for jewelry purposes in China. That is out of 1,089 tons, according to the China Gold Association, which came off the market in 2017.
Kevin: And that doesn't really include the central bank buying. They keep that very, very secret – hush-hush.
David: Exactly. Those figures are not included. Out of the 1,089 it is undisclosed what the Chinese central bank, the People's Bank of China, does. They don't disclose that for long, long stretches of time. But right now there is more gold that is being imported into China, and that is likely to continue as Chinese production of gold fell last year for the first time in almost 20 years.
Kevin: So you have increasing demand and decreasing supply.
David: Right. Supplies fell by 6% in 2017. So that's China. India numbers, according to GFMS, a consultancy, increased 67% year-over-year from 2016 to 2017 in India. That was to a total of 855 tons for the year.
Kevin: Dave, one of the things I love about the Indian buying is that it shows who is buying and the instincts of mankind. Rural buying – this isn't somebody who is manipulating the market or buying futures contracts. These are rural buyers for the majority of the buying.
David: 2018 is expected to be a banner year for gold purchases in India, as you have state funds at the federal level, but they are being lavished on rural areas. And lo and behold, politics is the same all over the world – guess what is happening in 2019? You have the general election and so money is being tossed around, and as more money is lavished on those rural areas, it does find its way, a good bit of it, into gold. Rural demand accounts for two-thirds of all gold demand in the country.
Again, you're talking about people who are generally agrarian, and at the end of a harvest season they have money, and they don't necessarily want to put it in the banking system. They know what the rupee can do to them, not for them. That is a key thing to recognize. They are keenly aware of currency penalties. So what do they do? They bank themselves in gold, and they do that in the form of jewelry and other things. But again, the agrarian culture, two-thirds of it rural, that is where two-thirds of the demand in the country is for gold.
Kevin: That's not to mention, going back to the central banks, the central banking demand. There are three countries, actually four – there is China, Russia, and Turkey – that we talk about large central bank buying – and of course, we include India in there and like you mentioned, it is two-thirds rural demand. But those are the four countries that are really hitting the gold market. Now, the central banks in Turkey and Russia, I think, we should be paying attention to.
David: I was fascinated, about two years, Ken Rogoff wrote an interesting article. While on the one hand he was arguing for closing of the financial system and a forced inclusion into the banking system so that he and the likes of Michael Woodford and other academics can have what they want, which is their way with interest rates, taking them negative, completely negative, and forcing savers to abdicate, not only the income that they would have received, but now actually part of their principle, too. Negative rates are yet one more iteration of theft from government extracting it from the people.
But he wrote something a few years ago about central banks, particularly in the emerging markets, needing to acquire more gold. I thought it was fascinating, because on the one hand he is talking about a closing of the financial system – individuals should not have cash, individuals should not have gold, but on the other hand central banks should have gold, and particularly the emerging markets should be diversifying their dollar holdings into gold. I just thought it was a fascinating commentary that goes back a couple of years ago.
Kevin: Isn't that something we see from elitists all the time, though, Dave? It's like Animal Farm where all animals are created equal, only some are more equal than others.
David: (laughs) That's like Keynes being somewhat anti-free market and yet he made his fortune trading grains.
David: Exactly. But you're right, the Turkish, the Russian – there are a number of other emerging market central banks which are active buyers of gold last year. So U.S. dollar strength and weakness, back to that point of contention, perhaps, with my dad and I – over the past two years it has not kept gold in check or penned it down, it has been up. Gold has been up over 30%, cumulatively, over the last two years, so two years in a row. And guess what? The dollar was trending higher in 2016 – that didn't put a halt to gold's rise – and it trended lower in 2017 and gold did its own thing.
So again, I see some independence there. The trend has shifted and I think that other than what you see from a daily knee jerk response, you have so many ADD traders, Attention Deficit Disorder traders, who are saying, "Wait a minute, what's going to happen now? In the next two seconds, what's going to happen? Dollars' up – that means gold is down." They're over-thinking it, I think.
And the currency direction is not ultimately going to determine the next shift toward gold. Look at Europe as an example. Europe, I think, is a very good example. Last year, if you look at their currency, you have great demand for gold in both Eastern and Western Europe – coins, bars, ETFs. Record per capita gold purchases occurred in German last year.
David: The euro was up considerably, so it's not as if a currency, a critical world reserve currency moves up and gold axiomatically moves down. Whether it is the dollar, or the euro, or whatever else, actually, gold demand – were talking about the demand side of the equation here – was off the charts in Europe last year, even with the euro going up.
Kevin: And Germany, in particular. This is a country that – when Germany leads, the rest of Europe follows.
David: Yes, so I think the critical driver is not currency. The critical driver of investor interest in the metals moving forward will be financial market stability or lack thereof.
Kevin: We talked about that last week. We had a VIX, a Volatility Index, that was unmovable for a year-and-a-half, almost two years, so much so that people were placing their major bets on it never moving again. And of course, you said last week that some of those people were paid back four cents on the dollar when they had bet that there would be no volatility. So we have instability right now. Do you think possibly some money will start coming out of the equity markets on a worldwide basis, and start buying something other than bitcoin?
David: Absolutely – global and domestic equity markets. So again, all over the world, including the United States here, domestically, we are going to see the equity markets drive a diversification into metals.
Kevin: That hasn't really happened here in the America yet, though, has it?
David: No, it hasn't. You have supplies of the metals which remain reasonably tight overseas. You have U.S. markets, ironically, which have been very weak, lots of liquidations of metals, not very much purchasing. So in terms of gold demand and supplies I think the supplies here in the United States are actually deceptively abundant.
Kevin: Explain what you are talking about concerning deceptively abundant.
David: I say deceptively because it is very little in terms of dollar volume, which would wipe out the existing supply overhang. So we do have an overhang of supply – bullion, American Eagle gold coins, if you go to liquidate them today, they always sell at a premium over the spot price. But today they bid less than spot. That is the market dynamic today. It is something we have never seen in the U.S. wholesale market, but it is a circumstance which is very easily rectified with a few dollars flowing in. So again, we're dealing with a deceptively abundant market where, yes, today we have too many coins, but literally, tomorrow, and a few large purchases, and they're all gone.
David: It's a lot of coins, and it's no coins at all. That's one purchase, if somebody wants to write a check for $400,000 or $500,000.
Kevin: Right. But that's how scarce it is in a market where it feels like there is an over-abundance.
David: Right. I think rest of world buying has been strong, as I mentioned, as you talked about earlier. And I think there is a reason to believe with stock investors now having to validate their current valuation metrics and their equity portfolios, there is a reason for them to begin repositioning to lots of other assets.
Kevin: And historically, that would also be bonds, but what are you thinking about bonds?
David: Maybe. I think some flow will go there, but inflation winds are already blowing, and even if it is just a concern or the expectation more than the actual inflation gauges rumbling, you also have rates which are already on the rise, so if the rate trend, in terms of rising instead of falling, is a secular trend in nature, then you have investors that have not seen a real secular bond bear market in over 37 years.
Kevin: Definitions here – cyclical is the shorter, and then secular is the longer. You have made it a point to say that usually interest rates travel in 30-35 year patterns. They go up for about that time and then they go back down that time.
David: The shortest interest rate trend in the United States in 200 years plus of U.S. interest rate history is 22 years, the longest is about 37, and we have seen 37 twice. So the average is probably closer to 26-28, but again, that is an average.
Kevin: So if Bill Gross is correct, and now that we've topped 2.66 on the ten-year treasury, and actually pushed close to 3, we're now probably reversing that trend and interest rates will be rising now for – what? 30 years?
But starting post-summer I think we're likely to see the gold price move past the $1400 barrier and into the price range that grabs people's attention and signals a secular shift there. I think we're already in that shift. We bottomed at $1,050, we're up $300 from that level. If you're looking for a great year, 2019 is my bet for a record year in the metals. That might coincide with an emergent U.S. recession, 2019 to 2020, and we may be in the middle of an equity bear market. It's anyone's guess, but I would hedge and invest accordingly.
Kevin: I want to go back to what we were talking about, Trump announcing a 4.4 trillion dollar budget, increasing by 1.5 trillion, just with spending projects. The concern is, our deficits are set to rise considerably. Everyone would admit that. And yes, they say tax cuts will put a lot of that money back into the coffer. But actually, the government spending has to be paid for.
David: The assumption is that tax cuts are neutral and the only reason they are considered neutral is because – let's call it pie-in-the-sky thinking – until it has happened it's pie-in-the-sky, it's hopeful thinking, and it may turn out to be true, but right now it's just hopeful thinking, that you cut taxes and it is going to stimulate growth in the economy such that there is a net benefit. And that net benefit will more than compensate for an increase in debt.
Kevin: In a way that is counting chickens before they're hatched.
David: That's true, and it's patting yourself on the back long before you have accomplished anything. I go back to Napier's question of who will fund the U.S. government? Who will fund the U.S. government is a particularly big deal coming into 2018 because you have three things floating which are a real concern. Our deficits are rising considerably. Yes, we have tax cuts, and that is an increase in government spending, meeting up at the same time. So, compared to 2017 you had our deficit numbers of roughly 500 billion. Now we will have nearly 1 trillion dollars in deficit spending for 2018. So we're up by close to 100% in terms of our deficit spending for 2018.
On top of that a second area of concern is that the Fed is on tap to reduce its holdings – we talked about this last week – including treasuries, by nearly half a trillion dollars, which will have to be absorbed by someone's savings. So add an extra 400-500 billion from that source to the supply of treasuries. And then there is the third point of concern, which is, there have been liquidations of treasuries in recent years, if you're looking at treasury flows. Dave Burgess does this for us at our Wealth Management team, as does Doug Noland who manages the Tactical Short.
In recent years, we have seen net liquidations of treasuries. That adds to a potential supply overhang. But on that third point it is worth noting that the central bank community has done a great deal to mask the erosion of interest in U.S. government bonds, so even though we have seen, in terms of treasury flows between foreign central banks, a net outflow, that the significant shift taking place right now is that central banks are normalizing their monetary policies, they're stepping away from the markets, they are allowing supply and demand factors to normalize somewhat – that is both in Europe and the United States – and the foreign central banks who were your chief buyers of bonds, now all of a sudden their net liquidations are going to become far more obvious.
Kevin: Let me repeat this back to you so I understand the three things that you are talking about. Our deficits are set to pretty much double.
David: To a trillion dollars.
Kevin: And the Fed is now, at the same time – who had been the buyer of last resort and first resort – the Fed is backing away and saying, "We're not going to be buying as many." And the general public, or whatever the rest of the market is, we have been seeing diminished interest in that for the last year or two. So who is going to be doing the buying of these bonds?
David: That's right. If it's not central banks, if they have a diminished interest in treasuries, if it's not our own central bank, the Fed, which they've said they're moving away from the treasury market as a buyer of both first and last resort, where are the savings going to come from which support our budget deficit financing needs. Because again, you're talking about a trillion-and-a-half dollars old debt which has to be handed over to someone, plus another trillion dollars in debt for 2018, money has to be borrowed from someone in order to spend it.
So someone's savings has to come into play. Someone has to lend the money. We have the petro dollar recycling of an earlier generation – it is largely over. We have the Chinese trade surplus dollar recycling, which is coming to an end. And the mirage of financial and economic functionality which is created by the Fed's presence in the market – that's what we have had since the global financial crisis. That mirage is coming to an end. None of this would be a concern if not for the massive deficits in play.
David: It wouldn't be a possibility.
Kevin: We wouldn't have that. So why don't we just walk through what has supported the dollar for the last 40-50 years, because when I was a kid we were on a gold standard and then we basically moved off of the gold standard, reneged on that, the Bretton Woods system and said, "Yes, but we're going to use the dollar for oil." That was the petro dollar standard. That's changing. But we added the Chinese. We bought 400 extra billion dollars' worth of their stuff. And they turned around and loaned it back to us.
Now as the Chinese faded away after the financial crisis we had the central bank buying. So we started with gold, then we went to the petro dollar, then we went to the Chinese, then we went to the Fed. Now the Fed is backing away (laughs). I'm starting to feel like Wiley Coyote, about three feet off the cliff looking down. I haven't fallen yet, but it's like, who is going to buy?
David: Who is going to buy? That's right. There are two sources of savings, domestic private savings – mine, yours – or foreign private savings. So again, you're talking about private investors who, for one reason or another, want to own treasuries.
Kevin: How do you attract that?
David: I think a massive shift from stocks to bonds, including an interest in treasuries. If you could intrigue your asset managers around the world, there would be sufficient quantities of money to finance our deficits. Of course, that pulls the rug out from under the stock market.
Kevin: Right. Robbing Peter, again, to pay Paul.
David: Yes, so it's just a shift in priorities. Do you want the wealth effect, where everyone feels happier, but there are greater political contentions between the rich and the poor. Or do you begin to see a leveling – a leveling of the rich and poor where reallocation occurs primarily through market chaos and catastrophe? Because again, if you are "inspiring" the saver to take his money out of stocks and put it into bonds, it has to be because A) there is no upside in stocks, or B) there is terror and only downside in stocks. Let's call it an emergent pressure. It has been revealed in the last ten days with the U.S. stock market selling off 10% in a week from Friday through Friday, so actually, six days of trading.
Kevin: And the rise in interest rates – wouldn't that be the carrot on the stick? If the dollar is strong and you have a rise in interest rates like you're talking about, that would also be a reason to move from equities.
David: Sure. And I think that is also just a question of interest rate differentials. On a relative basis, interest rates in the U.S. treasury market would be more attractive, and that would be, I think, inspirational to your foreign investor encouraging private savings from foreign sources to come into the U.S. dollar and into the U.S. treasury market.
Kevin: Now I'm going to get conspiratorial just for a little while because you have studied the foreign politics and the diplomacy that is used with the U.S. treasury and the U.S. dollar and the control of the SWIFT system and some of the things that we have seen with countries like Iran, putting pressure on Iran, or putting pressure on Russia. Is it to the advantage of the United States, who needs foreign buyers of stable treasuries, to actually maybe allow a little bit of worldwide chaos when you can encourage it?
Global chaos, arguably, is here to stay. That feeds U.S. dollar strength and encourages flows into U.S. treasuries. I'm just giving you a case, one reason why you could see interest rates move lower, and you could see the continuation of a bond bull market in spite of the current price action. If there is enough global chaos and people say we have to get out of Dodge, where would you rather be? Venezuela, or the U.S. dollar?
Kevin: If we go back and look, historically, at global politics, a big part of diplomacy and politics is, actually, creating a little bit of chaos with – maybe it's not your enemy, maybe it's your ally – but creating a situation that would give yourself a positive boost while pulling from another country.
David: The year that I spent at Oxford I learned something about the British when I practiced snooker. Snooker is like a billiards table, only it's a 12-foot long table, and you have a lot more small, multi-colored balls on the table. It is both a game of offense and defense and you can score points both by sinking a ball which would be sort of positive for you, but you could also score points by creating conundrums for your opponent.
David: Yes, if he cannot make a shot, you can earn points on the basis of putting him in a terrible position.
Kevin: Does that sound like British foreign policy?
Kevin: Say in India – the opium wars?
Kevin: (laughs) 'Tirring the pot. Yes, he's four.
Kevin: So, if you had a country that you knew flows of currency would come into U.S. treasuries that was maybe teetering, that was maybe on the edge of instability, and you were the U.S. Treasury, you had the ability to do that like we did with Iran, I guess you would be inclined to do that, wouldn't you?
David: If anyone was teetering, might you give a little extra shove if you were the Treasury? I don't know. We've explored the idea, which Juan Zarate popularized in his book, Treasury's War, where today, U.S. foreign policy is implemented as much, or more, by the Treasury Department than the State Department. State Department diplomats, by and large, pose for pictures and they pretend to be the voice piece for U.S. interests. They diplomatically deliver the current party line at cocktail parties all over the world. It's a tough job – wine and cheese and all that. It's a little different if you're Hillary Clinton, then the job becomes more complex. But that's maybe just a server issue.
Kevin: You wonder, if we were to sit and try to be ethical or moral about this you would say, "Well, gosh. This is sort of a war without blood." Is this a money buys everything, or a money buys influence, type of question?
David: That's the point. The Treasury is engaging in a new form of warfare. They can cut off funding to terrorism. They can implement sanctions – the Treasury Department can. Treasury limits access to SWIFT. Treasury uses the flows of capital or the lack of it to buttress our foreign policy objectives in real ways, in support of some regimes, and to tear down others. So the U.S. dollar rising – that's not a given. But if the U.S. dollar is rising, and that is what is, at least, proposed by our friend, Russell Napier, what does it do? One of the things it does is it impedes global growth. It strangles emerging market equities. And as there is chaos caused by the strangulation in the emerging market equity space you do have traffic coming into safe haven assets.
By the way, if the yield differential on U.S. treasuries is still positive, why wouldn't you move into U.S. treasuries and into a currency which is appreciating as well? I don't think Napier is taking the Machiavellian view that perhaps you and I have just discussed, where the U.S. Treasury is involved in foreign affairs. I do tend to see that, but again, that is influenced by reading Zarate who is not a wild-eyed guy with an opinion about what the Treasury Department is doing – he is a Treasury guy.
Kevin: If you were to look at relative stability, and let's say, look at the last week and a half, yes, we had instability in our equities market, but boy did they have equity instability worldwide.
David: Yes, back to the emerging markets, if that's your focus, in the U.S. we sold off last week, Monday through Friday, 5.2%. The S&P last week ended down 5.2%. The Shanghai composite was down 9.6.
David: Hong Kong, down 9.5%. Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 8.1%. Germany, the DAX, was on par with the U.S. – it was down 5.3%. The French market, the CAX was down 5.3%. The KOSPI there in South Korea was down 6.4% – that was in the red. And Taiwan was off 7.8%. You're talking about good degrees of pain in a short period of time here in the U.S. but a lot more pain in other places. If that continues you're going to end up redirecting capital flows and I think some of it may come back to dollars.
Kevin: So does that answer Napier's question on who is going to fund this now doubling or burgeoning deficit?
David: It just depends. Could it be that the more severe hemorrhaging in the emerging markets and overseas developed markets feeds the necessary savings flows into safe haven assets like U.S. treasuries? The flow from overseas would certainly buttress U.S. dollar strength and take away one of the two concerns a foreign investor has when moving money around. It's like so much Jello on a global plate. You have to look at the asset that you want to own – U.S. fixed income.
But then you have to ask the question – do you want dollar exposure? Because exchange rate volatility can kill you, or it can add to your returns. Look at this last year – to buy U.S. treasuries was a double loser in 2017. Why? Well, I should say, actually, early 2018 because that is where most of the volatility has occurred. Rates are on the rise and the dollar is not necessarily helping you. Bond market has been a tough go, let's say over the last 6-8 months.
Kevin: Just to simplify, because I, as a U.S. investor, don't want to see the dollar sink, necessarily, but it doesn't really affect me. If I go and buy with U.S. dollars here in the United States, a U.S. treasury, and the dollar falls, I'm still using dollars, I'm paying back in dollars, I'm getting paid in dollars. But if you're a foreigner anywhere else, and you're loaning the U.S. government money, let's say, like you said, the dollar fell 11% last year. Let's say you were making 3% on that money. You're still down 8%, not including inflation.
David: That's right. So yes, the direction of the dollar is critical, to Napier's point, if deficit funding is going to be sourced from overseas. That's the deal. It has to be an attractive proposition. Or if money is fleeing from something that is unattractive, then those flows will catalyze an increase in the dollar and that will feed on itself as an increasing dollar attracts more money into an increasing dollar trade. 2017 the currency issue did not advertise U.S. dollar assets very well. The U.S. dollar sank by 11%, you mentioned, and in certain currency terms, if you're comparing it to the euro it was closer to 16%. So, nasty year for the U.S. dollar if you're a foreign investor.
So imagine considering shifting assets around as an international investor. Is the U.S. dollar a value at this point after last year's selloff? Maybe. But relative to what? Now in 2018 you have rates rising, bond prices falling, which also does not, at this point, advertise U.S. treasuries as the best way for foreigners to preserve capital.
Kevin: At least not long treasuries, right?
David: Correct. But suppose the U.S. dollar catches a significant bid, begins to move back toward, let's say, 100 compared to the euro index. Yield is more attractive for an overseas investor, certainly if you're in Europe, or in Japan. Would you best be compensated with maturities of two years, five years, ten-year paper? Probably. You mentioned at the beginning of the program, 2.85% – that's up 45 basis points year-to-date. That for your ten-year. If you go to the 30-year treasury you go from 2.85 on the ten, to 3.16 on the 30. That's your flat yield curve.
Kevin: So if you're a foreigner listening to this program and you're thinking that possibly this is going to happen, that interest rates are going to rise, if you're going to buy, you want to buy the short end.
David: Buy the short end of the curve and limit your inflation risk. On the extra 20-year period you only gain 30-ish basis points for an extra 20 years of inflation exposure. No way. No way. But should the dollar rise you have to remember that there are huge amounts of U.S. dollar-denominated debt which have been issued in foreign markets since the global financial crisis. And this is where you have the potential for a massive credit meltdown, a credit crisis, in the emerging markets, starting in the emerging markets, because of the classic currency mismatch.
The source of almost every emerging market bond blowout has come from an emerging market borrowing in foreign currency terms. As they depreciate their currency, and if our currency appreciates, the hurdle to pay back that debt gets higher and higher and higher, increasing the likelihood of – yes, you're thinking it – default. That's a failure in the bond market, a credit crisis.
Kevin: We have been conditioned for the last ten years – you mentioned the global financial crisis – it's been ten years now since the global financial crisis of 2008. We're used to everything happening gradually, so much so that we got used to just betting on pure consistency of the volatility index. Now, when confidence changes we saw last week how quickly you can go from a dollar's worth of value to four cents worth of value if you're betting against volatility. If that confidence breaks could it suddenly do the same thing to the bond market?
David: Right, and that confidence could be based on international conflict or some hair-brained tweet that goes out from the president. Who knows what it is, but there are certain confidence issues implicit to the U.S. financial markets which could radically impair the treasury markets, too, so again, sort of a trickle out of U.S. treasuries on a net basis, which we are seeing, and we have already said, has been masked by central bank interventionism.
Could that trickle, under the right circumstances, become a flood where investors are exiting the treasury market, where rates have been rising gradually at first, as they are now, and then have their own version of the VIX moonshot? The VIX, the Volatility Index, went from 14 to 50 in a day – in a day – and yet we pretended for a long time like a sub-ten number, a single-digit number on the VIX was normal – it was the new normal – because there was no risk in the market. Of course there is no risk in the market. We know that. We're 21st century men. We understand.
Kevin: So I'm Trump, and I'm starting to look toward the next election, and I look at who elected me before – the populists. He was a populist vote. So you had Republicans, you had Democrats, you had Independents, but they wanted something that would make America great again. But to have a great America, you have to be competitive worldwide, with some of these countries that can provide so much cheaper labor. Trump may not admit this, but he needs a weaker dollar, does he not?
David: That certainly has been the stated objective. You're right, the U.S. populist following, on the one hand they would benefit from, perhaps, higher paying manufacturing jobs if those did come back, on-shoring, if that were to occur. But on the other hand, a weaker dollar may negate some of the benefits of a higher-paying job by having the goods and services that we all have to pay for come in at a higher price. Nevertheless, you have Trump, you have Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, who appears to have already set the course for a weaker dollar. The issue is, if they do, and that is the course we're on, we will not have foreign capital flows that support our deficit financing.
And it comes back to that question of, who is going to pay the U.S. debt, if it's not the central banks, if it's not our foreign creditors like the petro dollar recyclers of years gone past or the Chinese or the Japanese, on a trade basis. Who is going to finance our deficits? And if we're saying that a declining dollar is in play, in contrast to what we were arguing earlier, or presenting earlier, it's not going to be foreigners. Foreigners don't step into a declining currency with glee. That's not good news for them.
Kevin: If you're listening and like me your head is spinning, and you're thinking, "Oh my gosh, there are so many ramifications to both a weaker and a stronger dollar, deficits, spending," really, if you want to simplify this program, just call it "between a rock and a hard place." Right? Because in a way, a stronger dollar has merits. And it has consequences. Bad consequences. A weaker dollar – the same type of thing. Yet, we are increasing our deficit and we have to find someone who will loan us the money. This is the problem that we're stating.
David: The weaker dollar impacts inflation trends, and I think it underscores interest rates moving higher, as they have moved, and are likely to move higher, it reinforces the outflows from U.S. equities. It reinforces something of a trend into the U.S. bond market for the U.S. investor.
Kevin: What we are talking about here is economic. We're not talking about the financial markets. Now, one of the things that Trump criticized before he was elected was this bubble in the stock market. I'm not trying to take a shot at Trump but he started taking responsibility and credit for a rising stock market. That could really shoot him in the foot.
David: Huge tactical error. Huge tactical error on his part. He should have stuck with the economic improvement meme, he should have left the stock market performance out of the mix. If anything, he should have moderated expectations. Because in life, as in relationship, you understand that a part of your success deals with how you live into expectations, or shape them, or understand them and, again, live into it.
Kevin: Don't promise what you can't deliver.
Kevin: Well, what did he used to call it? He used to call it a big, fat, ugly bubble until he took over.
David: That's right. When he was in his campaign voice, on the campaign trail, and he was saying, "Look at what Obama has done. He has taken funny money (and those were his literal words), he has created a big, fat, ugly bubble in the stock market." I think you step into the presidential oval office, it probably gets the better of you, and now you own the bubble. And as long as it's going up, you're like, "Hey, this is because of me. Look at me, this is really impressive." I think he should have stuck with the economy because financial markets are likely to be unkind to him. Even though the economy is fine, financial markets are likely to be unkind to him heading toward a re-election bid, even with the economic tailwinds helping him.
Kevin: You talked about Russell Napier. One of the things that Russell told us a few years ago was that we had better get used to command and control dynamics, in other words, forced investing, forced monetary management – the Rogoff cashless society. I noticed on Monday that China is now calling on companies, mutual funds, large investors, to go in and buy their stocks. Do you think that there would be pressure from the White House, or from the Federal Reserve, on some of these larger passive management funds like Vanguard, where there is pressure to go in and buy these treasuries and actually become the source for the funding of this deficit?
David: You know, you say calling on – it's a very small difference between being called on to do something, and being mandated, or it being legislated.
Kevin: À la command control.
David: Yes, go back to the language which we used in 1968 when the French started taking gold out of Fort Knox, and we called on friends of America to settle the liabilities in greenbacks and paper currency, and not to take gold out of Fort Knox. Now, of course, we weren't demanding that they stop – that happened in 1971 when we closed the gold window.
David: If you want to be in the friend category. And what is implicitly the other side of that? The enemy category. You choose what camp you want to be in, but please, do as you are so inclined. So there is a difference between, but not very much of a difference between, being called on, mandating, and ultimately, having it legislated. If you were the President, if you were the Treasury Secretary, under certain circumstances, who would you keep on speed dial? Again, I think this goes back to what has been popularized as the plunge protection team, which is technically and officially known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets. You need to make sure that you have speed dial to your top ten asset management companies.
Kevin: Isn't there a huge concentration of a lot of assets just in a few companies?
David: Yes, in the top ten asset management companies in the U.S. you're talking about control of over 25 trillion dollars. So BlackRock and Vanguard are both north of $5 trillion apiece, and that is a lot of Jello that can be shifted around the plate. So you start thinking in terms of political pressure, regulatory pressure, anti-trust pressure – any kind of legislative requirements for a more passive management behemoth – what if you need an allocation to favor treasuries?
Kevin: Look what happened a couple of years ago when you saw favor toward treasury money markets. They were allowed to set their share value at $1.00 a share, but if these money markets invested in anything else they were not allowed to do that.
David: Right, it changed the risk metrics for the investor, and the investor was given the freedom of choice to move to someone that was investing in commercial paper, which gave them a higher return, but the buck could trade above or below a dollar value, net asset value, or a treasury which gave you the guarantee of a dollar return on your money. You weren't taking risk in a money market fund as long as it was treasury-backed.
Kevin: Even though those treasuries fluctuate just like commercial paper do, they just showed favoritism.
David: Yes, that's exactly right. So, after all, it is somebody's savings that have to fund our deficit. So the question is, where does it come from? This is why the whole conversation today, ping-pong back and forth between dollar up or dollar down is important. It's not as if we have a crystal ball, but if the dollar goes up, there are implications, and if the dollar goes down, there are implications, right? So you should watch the dollar. It's not foreign central banks any longer that are going to finance the U.S. deficit. It's not the U.S. Fed, at least as stated at present. So in sum, you have Napier that argues that U.S. dollar strength, if we do witness that, will reveal global liquidity weakness.
Keep that in mind, U.S. dollar strength will reveal global liquidity weakness, and that is very much like a replay of the 1997 emerging market crackups. We had Thailand, we had many of the Asian tigers hitting the skids. Ultimately, it rocked most of Asia and Russia, and you can tie that to too much U.S. dollar-denominated debt and not enough liquidity. So there is a paradox between having debt as money. You have high quantities of money-like assets, that is debt, but on the other hand, very little money to make payments on the debt when capital flows begin to shift.
Kevin: Again, that is only a problem when you are a deficit country. Back when we were on the gold standard that wasn't a problem because if you didn't have enough gold you had to have it before you could pay your bills back. Now the question is, what is debt and what is money, or are they both the same?
David: So, that's U.S. dollar strength. Then you move to the other hand. On the other hand, Napier argues U.S. dollar weakness creates a domestic funding issue where U.S. investors are likely to be the funders of our deficit. And that is resolved by a nasty bear market in stocks, where you see a capital flow from stocks to bonds.
Kevin: With that being said, you said you are going to be writing an article in the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor, your dad's newsletter, looking at these issues and saying, "Look, as far as gold is concerned, a weak dollar or a strong dollar, that is not really the question here." And so, for the listener who wants to see that particular issue when it comes out, can we give that for free if they give us call, Dave?
David: Absolutely. But it is worth noting that when you look at the political left going apoplectic about the "breakdown" of the liberal world order, these are the trends that are driving gold demand internationally. We are moving into a period of global chaos and disunity unlike any that we have had in the postwar era. Globalization brought us a great deal of benefits and blessings. De-globalization, globalization in reverse, what we talked about many times with Harold James who wrote a book on that topic where he argues that we are, in fact, moving into another era of de-globalization.
So whether you like it or not, and I'm certainly no champion of global instability, we are sitting ringside here, coming into 2018, and ultimately, into 2019, one of those years which I think will be a banner year for gold. That means you have to have your strategy lined out. Where do you go from here? If you don't own it now, should you own it? In what form?
How are you processing those risk mitigation decisions today, and also planning an exit strategy? Because by the way, when gold reaches peak, which I think could be over the next three to five years, you had better have something of a reduction or exit strategy. If you're not mapping that out, you're missing a great opportunity.


text:
Q: ktor how to hide javax.net.ssl.SSLHandshakeException: Received fatal alert: certificate_unknown I'm developing a web app, and the app uses navigator.mediaDevices.getUserMedia, so it needs HTTPS.
So I created a dummy certificate and localhost KTOR loads it.
Which is great!  Except it litters the logs with
2022-10-05 10:26:10.046 [eventLoopGroupProxy-3-4] WARN  i.n.h.s.ApplicationProtocolNegotiationHandler - [id: 0x96c37772, L:0.0.0.0/0.0.0.0:8443] TLS handshake failed:
javax.net.ssl.SSLHandshakeException: Received fatal alert: certificate_unknown

Is there any way to keep those from spamming the log?
(either through an improved self-signed cert, or through a filter, or a ktor config of "I get it, stop bothering me...")

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


The pre-game show could be the most important piece of information for the viewer, especially if you haven't been keeping up with your team all week. During the pre-game show you are filled in on all the facts, flaws, hopes and expectations for what you are about to watch. Whether it is tuning in 5 minutes before kick-off or an hour worth of discussing replays from last week and how the team hopes to overcome potential obstacles for this week, the pre-game show is a wealth of information.
Every student ministry has a pre-game show. How well are the leaders educated prior to the big game–the program or their small group? It has been my experience that much of the success of the program or small group will be determined by the quality of your pre-game show. Talking with other youth pastors I understand there are many different ways to run a pre-game show, that's not the point right now, the point is to remember that you have a pre-game show whether you know it or not.
Last year I had the opportunity to observe another youth ministry, the youth pastor was a friend of mine. We were 15 minutes out from the program start time and I was in the back of the room chatting with some of his volunteers. The closer we got to program start time the more eyes of leaders would drift to the youth pastor looking for some sort of direction or instruction. Nothing happened. As students poured into the room the youth pastor went over the sound booth and grabbed the microphone, he was headed to the stage to kick-off a program the leaders knew nothing about. That was there pre-game show.
Every student ministry has a pre-game show. Your leader's experience prior to your program or their small group can greatly benefit or unfortunately burden your ministry. Take a moment to evaluate your current pre-game show.
If I were a leader in my ministry, would I feel well equipped for my role?
Does our pre-game show (leaders meeting) feel rushed, do we need more time?
Is there a good relational and informational balance in my pre-game show?
Do my leaders understand what a clear WIN looks like for their small group on that specific day?
I'd like to take a closer look at these questions based upon my own experience in ministry over the next few days.


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text:
Q: Return a second variable in a JSON array I am trying to pass a second variable out of a JSON array that is of type int. So far I have only been able to pass the SP_NAME (which is a string) variable out but now I need the SP_ID to be passed out of the controller as well so the jQuery knows where to place the information.
Below is the controller code. There are two lines where I think the trouble is coming from and  I have added <------ arrows to show you guys.
[Authorize]
public virtual ActionResult getAjaxSPs(string MP = null)
{

    if (MP != null)
    {
        var SPList = from x in sp_index select x;

        var MPData = from y in mp_index
                     where y.MP_NAME == MP
                     select y;

        SPList = SPList.Where(x => x.MP_ID == MPData.FirstOrDefault().MP_ID);

        var SPRow = SPList.Select(x => new { x.SP_NAME, x.SP_ID }).Distinct().ToArray();  // <------- SPRow returns two variable SP_NAME and SP_ID (ex. Program1, 30)

        float[] SPContent = new float[12];

        Dictionary<string, float[]> SPMonthRow = new Dictionary<string, float[]>();

        foreach (var item in SPRow)
        {

            SPContent = new float[12];

            var SPMonthList = from x in Full_Year_Numbers
                              where x.PROJECT_NAME == item.SP_NAME
                              group x by new { x.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, x.PROJECT_NAME, x.AMOUNT } into spgroup
                              select new { accounting_period = spgroup.Key.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, amount = spgroup.Sum(x => x.AMOUNT) };

            foreach (var mulan in SPMonthList)
            {
                int acounting_period = int.Parse(mulan.accounting_period) - 1;
                SPContent[acounting_period] = (float)mulan.amount / 1000000;

            }

            SPMonthRow[item.SP_NAME] = SPContent;
        }

        return Json(SPMonthRow, JsonRequestBehavior.AllowGet); //<--------- This is where I need to return two variables so I can use them both in the Jquery

    }
    return View();
}

So in the SPRow line I am getting the key and the values that I need which are (program1, 30). I need to have access to the SP_ID in the JSON return so I can use it in my jQuery like this.

' + SP + '
'
I thought that I could just add item.SP_ID to SPMonthRow like this
SPMonthRow[item.SP_NAME, item.SP_ID] = SPContent;
But, when I tried to build again I received this error
no overload for method 'this' takes 2 arguments
This error leads me to believe that I defined the dictionary incorrectly, am I correct in thinking this or am I off track? Is there another way to get the SP_ID into the JSON array that is being used in the jQuery? I am honestly open to any and all suggestions to get SP_ID  out of that controller. I have been googling for a while now with no idea on how to fix an issue like mine. Thanks for your help and please let me know if you need any other code or information to help with diagnosis of the issue.
Update 1
foreach (var item in SPRow)
                {

                    SPContent = new float[12];

                    var SPMonthList = from x in act.WPD_Full_Year_Actuals
                                      where x.PROJECT_NAME == item.SP_NAME
                                      group x by new { x.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, x.PROJECT_NAME, x.AMOUNT } into spgroup
                                      select new { accounting_period = spgroup.Key.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, amount = spgroup.Sum(x => x.AMOUNT) };

                    foreach (var mulan in SPMonthList)
                    {
                        int accounting_period = int.Parse(mulan.accounting_period) - 1;
                        SPContent[accounting_period] = (float)mulan.amount / 1000000;

                    }

                    dynamic result = new
                        {
                            Name = item.SP_NAME,
                            Id = item.SP_ID
                        };

                    SPMonthRow[result] = SPContent;
                }

                return Json(SPMonthRow, JsonRequestBehavior.AllowGet);

            }
            return View();
        }

Update 2
Here is the schema of the tables used in this function
public partial class sp_catalog
    {
        public int SP_ID { get; set; } //primary key
        public Nullable<int> MP_ID { get; set; }
        public Nullable<int> IA_ID { get; set; }
        public string SP_NAME { get; set; }
    }

public partial class mp_catalog
    {
        public int MP_ID { get; set; } //primary key
        public Nullable<int> IA_ID { get; set; }
        public string MP_NAME { get; set; }
    }

public partial class Full_Year_Actuals

{
public string ACCOUNTING_PERIOD { get; set; }
public Nullable<decimal> AMOUNT { get; set; }
public string PROJECT_NAME { get; set; }
public int ID_actuals { get; set; }

}

Update 3
I have tried using the dynamic result class but that does not work for me since I cannot use  the code GameScripting provided me with. The reason I cannot use it is because I need to work with the SQL DB to provide me with the data. I cannot hard code any data as it is constantly changing.
All I want is to be able to return SP_NAME, SP_ID and the amounts in SPContent through JSON. The reason for this is that in my jQuery I use SP_NAME to output the name of the Sub-Program (ex. "subProgram1"). I use SP_ID to let the jQuery know which program to put the sub-progrm under (ex. if SP_ID = 1 the sub-program would be under program1). The amounts that are contained within SPContent are monthly totals that are entered in the foreach loop.
(program1                 Jan  Feb  Mar
  subProgram1 $100 $200 $300 etc...)`

What this all means is I cannot lose this line SPMonthRow[item.SP_NAME] = SPContent; unless I can output SPContent amount data another way. I am open to all solutions as long as I can keep the data flowing out of the function in JSON so the jQuery can display what I need it to. Sorry for the essay I just want to make sure anyone who wants to help me has the information required to do so. Please feel free to ask any questions or make any request for code as I check the status of my questions often. Thank you for your help!

A: When using .NET 4.0+ you can use a dynamic type to merge those two values into a new object and return that just like
dynamic result = new
{
    Name = item.SP_NAME,
    Id = item.SP_ID
};
return Json(result, JsonRequestBehavior.AllowGet);

UPDATE:
I really don't understand what your code is about something about SPs and MPs, which seem to have a releationship with each other. So I can't provide any help with your code, until you'll explain what you are trying to archive, what there querys represent etc.
I'll try to provide some generic information about array' and dictionarys.
Let's firstly have a look at what is avalible

JSON
{
   "Key1":5,
   "Key2":10,
   "Key3":155
}

C# (you could also use dictionary initialisation syntax)
Dictionary<string, int> dictionary = new Dictionary<string, int>();

dictionary.Add("Key1", 5);
dictionary.Add("Key2", 10);
dictionary.Add("Key3", 155);

This structure is called a dictonary, which is a simple key-value store. You can say: "Here I've got some data, please save it as program1". Later you can go out and say: "can you please give me the data use saved as program1".
JSON
[
   5,
   15,
   23,
   78,
   155,
   4,
   85
]

C# (again initialisation syntax is avalible)
int[] array = new int[6];
array[0] = 5;
array[1] = 15;
array[2] = 23;
array[3] = 78;
array[4] = 155;
array[5] = 4;
array[6] = 85;

This is an array which is just an accumulation of values, which get automatically a unique number in the accumulation (this is called index). These unique number start at 0, not at 1.
What you actually have is a dictionary with a string key and an array of numbers as the actual data.
JSON
{
   "program1":[
      101,
      34,
      67,
      876
   ]
}

C#
Dictionary<string, int[]> dictionary = new Dictionary<string, int[]>();

int[] values = new int[4];
values[0] = 101;
values[1] = 34;
values[2] = 67;
values[3] = 876;

dictionary.Add("program1", values);

Let's have a look at want you want

You want something like
{
   "program1", "30":[
      101,
      34,
      67,
      876,
      44
      7
   ]
}

So, what it that? A dictionary? An array? how would you access the program1 element? Just that name? But what's the "30" then?
As you see, there's no answer, such a thing doen't exist.
My solution
I think you want the following structure:
JSON
{
   "program1":{
      "30":[
         34,
         67,
         876,
         44,
         36,
         6
      ]
   }
}

The C# code to get such a struct would be something like
dynamic data = new
{
    program1 = new Dictionary<string, int[]>
    {
        {"30",  new int[]{34,67,876,44,36,6}}
    }
};

Now it's you turn to figure out what you really want and how to make your code work. Happy coding :)

UPDATE2
If you just want working code, without understanding what happens actually, try this one:
[Authorize]
public virtual ActionResult getAjaxSPs(string MP = null)
{

    if (MP != null)
    {
        var SPList = from x in sp_index select x;

        var MPData = from y in mp_index
                        where y.MP_NAME == MP
                        select y;

        SPList = SPList.Where(x => x.MP_ID == MPData.FirstOrDefault().MP_ID);

        var SPRow = SPList.Select(x => new { x.SP_NAME, x.SP_ID }).Distinct().ToArray();  // <------- SPRow returns two variable SP_NAME and SP_ID (ex. Program1, 30)

        float[] SPContent = new float[12];

        List<dynamic> result = new List<dynamic>();

        foreach (var item in SPRow)
        {

            var SPMonthList = from x in Full_Year_Numbers
                                where x.PROJECT_NAME == item.SP_NAME
                                group x by new { x.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, x.PROJECT_NAME, x.AMOUNT } into spgroup
                                select new { accounting_period = spgroup.Key.ACCOUNTING_PERIOD, amount = spgroup.Sum(x => x.AMOUNT) };

            foreach (var mulan in SPMonthList)
            {
                int acounting_period = int.Parse(mulan.accounting_period) - 1;
                SPContent[acounting_period] = (float)mulan.amount / 1000000;

            }

            result.Add(
                new {
                    Name = item.SP_NAME,
                    Id = item.SP_ID,
                    Content = SPContent
                });
        }

        return Json(result, JsonRequestBehavior.AllowGet);
    }
    return View();
}

A: You can create a new object to use for your JSON result.
Something like:
[Serializable]
public class SPData{
    string SP_NAME{get;set;}
    float SP_CONTENT{get;set;}
    int SP_ID{get;set;}
}

Then when you use it, make a List<> of SPData and add a new one each loop.
List<SPData> SP_DATA = new List<SPData>();

foreach (var item in SPRow)
{
    // ...

    SP_DATA.Add(new SPData{SP_NAME=item.SP_NAME, SP_CONTENT=SPContent, SP_ID=item.SP_ID});
}

return Json(SP_DATA, JsonRequestBehavior.AllowGet);


text:
Bobbie King
Bobbie King, 93, long time former resident of St. Charles, Illinois and current resident of the Marshes of Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia, died peacefully April 23, 2020 surrounded by her beloved daughters.
Bobbie was born April 20, 1927 in Schenectady, New York, and was the pride and joy of her late parents Stephen and Rhea Miller. She grew up in Schenectady and it was there where she met and married the love of her life her life, Bertram J. "Bert" King, on April 12, 1947. Together they built a beautiful family and were the example of true love to each other and their children. Bert's career at 3M took them to many parts of the country finally taking them to St. Charles, Illinois in 1969.
She was both a woman of her time and yet was quintessentially modern. Bobbie was utterly devoted to her family but still found the time to found a thriving real estate business, Bobbie King Realty, in St. Charles, Illinois. In recognition of her accomplishments in business the Fox Valley Board of Realtors named her President of the Board and Realtor of the year in 1989. Bobbie was managing broker at Starck Realty and Fox Valley Realtors. She was actively involved selling real estate into her late 80's, a fifty-year career.
Bobbie was an avid bridge player with many master points. She always said you will never be lonely if you play cards and that proved true when she moved to the Marshes at Skidaway Island in 2017. She found many friends there whom she dearly loved and will surely miss. She often said she wished she moved to the Marshes sooner. Bobbie loved the city of Savannah, it's history, charm, weather and restaurants.
Bobbie was also a long-time member of St. Charles Country Club. She loved to entertain and was an accredited master flower arranger and flower show judge. Her table was always adorned with beautifully arranged flowers. Bobbie had a passion for antiques and she collected many beautiful items. Her home was a reflection of her taste and style.
The greatest treasure of her life was her family. She is survived by her three loving daughters, Cynthia Harkins of Hawthorne, New Jersey, Pamela (Robert) Richey of Savannah, Georgia and Barbara (Thomas) Wasinger of Hays, Kansas; her seven loving grandchildren Matthew (Victoria) Wasinger, Andrew Wasinger, Anne Marie (Garrett) Hager, Mark Wasinger, Lauren (Ryan) Doyle, Stephen Smith and Douglas Harkins; her two great-grandchildren, Gentry Hager and Isabella Wasinger.
She was preceded in death by her loving husband Bertram Joseph King and her parents Stephen and Rhea Miller.
Bobbie and her family would like to extend a special thank you to her caregiver, Monica Cody, who provided great comfort to her and her family.
A funeral mass will be held at St. James Catholic Church in Savannah, Georgia and due to the coronavirus, a celebration of her life will be held at the Marshes and St. Patrick's Church in St. Charles, Illinois when conditions permit.
In lieu of flowers, donations to GHC Foundation (Hospice), Post Office Box 15665, Savannah, Georgia 31416 are appreciated.
Please sign our online guestbook at www.foxandweeks.com
Fox & Weeks Funeral Directors, Hodgson Chapel, Savannah, GA 912-352-7200
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I'm wondering… maybe one of you have experience using USB2.0 hubs and plugged into it USB 1.0 devices?
I found one solution but it's unsatisfied for me.
On my WL-500gP there are two separate USB ports but unfortunately I don't know how to enable 2.0 only on one – if it's possible??:confused: That may do the trick for me.
If anybody knows a solution or a workaround please share.
just use USB 1.0 Hub on the first Asus USB port and your second Asus USB port is still on USB 2.0.


As free as the ocean.
Hello! Welcome to Peaks to Ports! We are Tye & Amy, a traveling couple from North Idaho taking a break from the 9-5. We gave up life as we knew it for a 40' sailboat and the freedom of the deep blue. Follow along as we navigate the high seas, and Tye completes his quest to summit the 50 U.S. high points (hence Peaks to Ports).
We'll be sharing travel blogs, photography on Instagram, and travel videos on Youtube. Get to know more about us.
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails.


GMC trucks are not only popular because they are American made, but also because they are built to last. These trucks can last a lifetime if you take good care of them and the best way to do this is to bring your truck to maintenance and repairs experts.
Services Offered By GMC Certified Expert Technicians.
GMC trucks might be sturdy and reliable, but that does not mean that they do not face mechanical issues. That is why trained professionals help you plan an optimum maintenance schedule for your truck. Furthermore, GMC truck repair experts use advanced technologies such as the engines oil monitoring system, which indicates the appropriate time to change the oil.
GMC truck maintenance and repair experts understand how the transmission of your vehicles works, better than anyone. If there are any transmission issues that the truck is facing, trained experts use the driver information center to locate this particular issue. The driver information center is also known as the DIC, which displays a system message. Experts use this information to fix any issues found in the transmission.
Engine maintenance is important when you want to maintain the performance of your truck. That is why it is advisable that you trust certified repair experts with getting quality auto parts. Moreover, besides providing engine repair parts and quality auto parts, these experienced technicians will also repair or install the parts that are needed for your car.
The reason why you should use genuine parts on your engine is because they are tested and possess a high durability and validation standard. As part of maintaining your engine, the GMC repair experts also configures the HVAC and engine's cooling parts which are the accumulator, compressor, water pump, condenser, compressor clutch, blower motor, engine cooling fan, expansion valve, heater core, evaporator, radiator and the thermostat.
Other Services Offered By GMC Truck Maintenance And Repairs Experts.
GMC repair technicians also offer other services to GMC truck owners such as tire care, oil change, suspension adjustment and professional grade care, which is specifically for GMC vehicles. Besides the professional grade care, repair experts also offer pro-grade protection for trucks. This particular package comes with special services such as lube oil lifter maintenance, roadside assistance, and powertrain limited warranty.
We don't just focus on your vehicle's mechanical needs at our shop. We always go above and beyond so that your expectations are exceeded when it comes to the customer service that you receive from us. Our dedicated and professional team of expert technicians is prepared to answer any questions you might have and provide you with efficient and thorough service. For our local customers, we even provide courtesy shuttle service to help ensure that your repair process runs as smoothly as possible. Don't only take our word for it. Put our service to the test by making an appointment or by calling our shop today!
Our certified Technicians service all models for regular maintenance and repairs.


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'Dear Jindagi' to be aired starting 'Ghatasthapana'.
Inventor Creates Flying Drone Car After Getting Fed Up With Traffic
BBoyingDanceEntertainmentSports
B-Boy Chuntu defeated B-Boy Quick in the finals of Govinda Education Nepal BBoy City 2019 to win the title of One-on-One Undisputed Bboy. Victorious with the unanimous decision from the judges, BBoy Chuntu will represent Nepal in the Taipei BBoy City, an Undisputed World B-Bboy Series to be held in Taiwan in December. A total …
Melbourne Stars are through to the BBL semi-finals after defeating Sydney Sixers by 94 runs at the MCG. Having lost their last two regular- season matches, it was a "must win" match for the Melbourne team to reach the finals. At the rate of 3.0, Sandeep Lamichhane had the best economy rate among his fellow …
Barcelona forward Lionel Messi has hit back at rival Cristiano Ronaldo's challenge to join him playing in Italy, by saying there is no need to take up the gauntlet and switch leagues as he already plays for the world's best team. Juventus winger Ronaldo recently pondered the idea that Messi may be pining for his …
Manchester United thrashed Cardiff City 5-1 in the very first match since Jose Mourinho was sacked. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got off to a perfect start since succeeding Mourinho, who was sacked in midweek. The former United striker was punching the air in delight with less than four minutes on the clock when the red devils …
Croatia and Real Madrid midfielder Luka Modric won the 2018 Ballon d'Or, becoming the first player other than Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo to claim the award in more than a decade. Former AC Milan and Brazil forward Ricardo Kaká was the last player other than Messi or Ronaldo to win it, in 2007. Modric, …
Cristiano Ronaldo, Luka Modric and Mohamed Salah will battle it out for the UEFA Men's Player of the Year award. Ronaldo, who joined Juventus from Real Madrid this summer, scored 15 goals in 13 Champions League appearances as Los Blancos were crowned winners, beating Salah's Liverpool in the final. Ronaldo also netted 26 goals in 27 …
Nepal recorded their historic first ODI win with a nail-biting one-run victory against the Netherlands on Friday, 3 August at VRA Cricket Ground, Amstelveen. ODI debutants Nepal had to wait until the last bowl to equalise the series by denying Netherlands their second victory. Playing just their second match of the ODI, Nepal pulled off the …


The ZEW Network on Real Estate Markets and Capital Markets (ReCapNet) focuses on the interactions between real estate markets and capital markets. The eleventh conference of the network will take place at ZEW in Mannheim on 14 - 15 November 2019.
The main theme of the conference will be "Real Estate Asset Pricing". We solicit papers on these and related areas at the intersections of real estate finance and real estate economics.
All authors whose paper has been rated positively may choose to submit their paper for a special issue in the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. Papers will be selected based on a competitive review process. Contributions are welcome from both established and junior researchers.
A PDF version of your paper, without any information that could personally identify yourself (e.g. file metadata, acknowledgements and references to institutions).
Full contact details in the body of the submission e-mail.
A short note indicating if you are interested in submitting your paper for the special issue. This is non-binding and will not affect your chances of being accepted for the conference.
Costs: The registration fee is EUR 150 for academic researchers and EUR 250 for practitioners. Speakers and discussants may apply for financial support from ZEW to cover travel expenses after notification of acceptance. Accommodation for speakers and discussants will be covered by ZEW. Please do not hesitate to contact the organisers for further information.
Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management"


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Vagharshapat
Yerevan: 2 nights in Armenia Experience
Yerevan: Carve Khachkar and Lavash Baking with Lunch
From Yerevan: Echmiadzin Full-Day Trip and Cooking Class
Yerevan, Echmiadzin & Zvartnots Tour with a Guide
Top sights in Vagharshapat
1. Etchmiadzin Cathedral
2. Zvartnots Cathedral
3. Saint Gayane Church
4. Saint Hripsime Church
Our most recommended things to do in Vagharshapat
1. Yerevan, Echmiadzin & Zvartnots Tour with a Guide
Explore the fascinating sights of Yerevan, the heart of Armenia. Learn about the spread of Christianity in Armenia as you visit the St. Hripsime and St. Gayane churches. Finally, admire medieval Armenian architecture at the Zvartnots Temple which was built in the 7th century. Meet your guide at 10 AM at the meeting point. Enjoy interesting stories from the 1000-year history of the capital. Marvel at the main architectural monuments and vintage central streets. Catch a panoramic view of the whole city from the height of a special viewpoint. Next up, visit Echmiadzin and its churches, listed among UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Sites. The first stops are the churches of St. Hripsime and St. Gayane, dedicated to the Christian women-martyrs who escaped from Rome with their abbess Gayane. Afterward visit the Echmiadzin Mother Cathedral, the main cathedral of the Armenian Apostolic Church and the very first Christian cathedral in the world. Currently, Mother Cathedral is under reconstruction and can only be seen from the outside. Continue to the Treasures of Echmiadzin museum with a final stop near Zvartnots, the medieval temple of St. Gregory.
2. Yerevan: Carve Khachkar and Lavash Baking with Lunch
At the beginning of the day, your guide will pick you up from your hotel from where you will head to the religious center of Armenia, Etchmiadzin. Due to its rich history and symbolic importance, it is a sacred spot for all Armenian Christians. Together with a few ancient churches situated nearby, its cathedral was included as the UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2000. After getting acquainted with the history of the oldest church in the world, you will head in the direction of the "Khachkar Master School" in the village of Arshaluys. There, you will observe the tradition of Armenian stone carving up close, and will potentially spark some inspiration for your own project. Learning under the master Ruben's guidance and supervision, you'll soon be able to carve traditional Armenian patterns on a small piece of volcanic stone. It is worth to mention that because of its unique craftsmanship, the symbolism of khachkars (cross-stones) has been added into the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage List. As you finish your workshop, you will be invited to taste delicious traditional specialties around a hospitable Armenian table. The locals will also demonstrate how to bake traditional Armenian flat-bread lavash, you will also have the opportunity to take part in the process yourself. As your activity comes to a close, it will be time to return to Yerevan with your driver transferring you smoothly back to your hotel.
Frequently asked questions about Vagharshapat
What top attractions are a must-see in Vagharshapat?
The must-see attractions in Vagharshapat are:
Etchmiadzin Cathedral
Zvartnots Cathedral
Saint Gayane Church
Saint Hripsime Church
See all must-see sights in Vagharshapat
What are the top things to do in Vagharshapat this week?
The top things to do in Vagharshapat are:
From Yerevan: Echmiadzin Mother Cathedral and Zvartnots Tour
Explore the best things to do in Vagharshapat on GetYourGuide
Which tours in Vagharshapat are taking additional COVID-19 precautions?
These experiences in Vagharshapat are taking additional COVID-19 precautions:
See all Vagharshapat tours on GetYourGuide
Top Attractions in Vagharshapat
1 Etchmiadzin Cathedral
2 Zvartnots Cathedral
3 Saint Gayane Church
4 Saint Hripsime Church
Things to Do in Vagharshapat
1 Vagharshapat Tours
Cities in Armenia
1 Yerevan
2 Dilijan
3 Alaverdi
4 Tatev
5 Tsaghkadzor
6 Haghpat
7 Garni
8 Jermuk
9 Lusarat
10 Areni
11 Vagharshapat
12 Ohanavan
13 Gyumri
14 Khndzoresk
15 Akhtala
16 Artashat, Armenia
17 Oshakan
18 Byurakan
Other Sightseeing Options in Vagharshapat
Want to discover all there is to do in Vagharshapat? Click here for a full list.
Armavir Province


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Business Wire: Arts & Entertainment
PRESS RELEASE: Paid content from Business Wire
Paramount Pictures Hosted Free 25th Anniversary Screening of Academy Award®-Winning Classic FORREST GUMP on National Mall
Academy Award-winning producer Wendy Finerman and retired Sergeant First Class Sammy L. Davis, a recipient of the Medal of Honor, attend a special 25th anniversary screening of Forrest Gump on the National Mall on Friday, May 24, 2019 in Washington, D.C. Davis' real-life Medal of Honor ceremony appears in the film with Tom Hanks superimposed. (Photo by Casey Rodgers/Invision for Paramount Home Entertainment)
WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 25, 2019--
Paramount Pictures proudly celebrated the 25 th anniversary of the beloved classic FORREST GUMP with a special outdoor screening on the National Mall in Washington D.C. Free to the public, the screening took place tonight before Memorial Day weekend.
Among the guests of honor at the event were Medal of Honor recipients Kyle Carpenter and Sammy L. Davis, whose medal ceremony at the White House with President Lyndon B. Johnson was used in FORREST GUMP with Tom Hanks as Forrest superimposed into the footage. Academy Award-winning producer, Wendy Finerman, introduced the film on this special occasion.
FORREST GUMP won six Academy Awards including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Writing, Best Film Editing and Best Visual Effects. Upon its release in 1994, the film became a global blockbuster, as well as a cultural touchstone, and remains a treasured cinematic classic that is beloved and quoted the world over. A newly remastered version of FORREST GUMP is available now in a two-disc Blu-ray that includes over three hours of bonus content.
#ForrestGump25DC
View source version on businesswire.com:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190524005481/en/
CONTACT: Brenda Ciccone
Brenda_ciccone@paramount.com
KEYWORD: UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: ENTERTAINMENT FILM & MOTION PICTURES CELEBRITY EVENTS/CONCERTS
SOURCE: Paramount Pictures
Copyright Business Wire 2019.
PUB: 05/25/2019 02:36 AM/DISC: 05/25/2019 02:36 AM
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190524005481/en


These Marine Orders repeal the Marine Orders – Half 9: Health – Medical Fitness, Challenge 5 (Order No. 22 of 1999) and prescribe matters pertaining to medical health requirements of seafarers and coastal pilots.
There can be little question that deficiencies of these very important vitamins can result in critical issues. Scientists are continually discovering new hyperlinks between viruses, micro organism and the immune system and many of the most common and most harmful ailments. Take a look; you may be surprised at what they're studying about the importance of a strong, balanced immune system.
HTY Gold is an anti-getting old product that permits lowering the wrinkles. That is out there in four teams named as: Eye Gold, Physique Gold, Day Gold and Evening Gold. HTY Gold might be utilized in all around the body except eye portion. It allows giving you modern and smoother pores and skin with younger look. But individuals who wish to buy an anti-wrinkle cream or anti-getting older cream ought to seek the advice of with the ingredients record of the product before shopping for it.
These neurotransmitters also play a part in elevating mood. During exercise the brain is stimulated to provide massive amounts of those chemical messengers and this induces a 'feel good' issue similar to endorphins. Anti-depressant medicines that many individuals require, are thought to boost the numbers of those neurotransmitters.
Physical exercise also can improve your psychological well being. People with higher health ranges are capable of higher cope with stress and the type of exercise chosen can also be important. It's observed that cardiovascular workouts are nice for coping with stress. Train is a pure anti depressant too! Equally, even 10 minutes of cardiovascular exercise may stimulate anti anxiety results!


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What Is Alcohol Addiction?
Legal Does Not Mean Safer
How Does Alcoholism Work?
Alcoholism Signs
Alcohol Addiction Treatment: What is Involved?
Alcohol Statistics
Alcohol is indisputably the United States' most popular psychoactive drug. It is nearly impossible to avoid the commercials, billboards, or any other advertising that promotes alcohol. Common phrases muttered around us during times of stress such as "Ugh! I need a drink!" are so common that it's inescapable. No matter where we go, it's actively being marketed by friends or coworkers around us.
In such a heavy drinking culture, it's no surprise that alcohol addiction is so prevalent. Unfortunately, the media tend to describe only the positive side of drinking and completely ignores the dark side associated with its effects.
In commercials, individuals are portrayed as being in a superior class riding in on horses holding vodka bottles, but the reality is binge drinking (the consumption of an excessive amount of alcohol in a short time) does not result in these upper echelon views that are portrayed.
There is a dark and ugly side to alcohol that the media hide. Alcohol addiction could be just as destructive and deadly as illicit drugs. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released a study that indicates drinking too much can harm your health (no surprise here), and excessive alcohol use led to about 88,000 deaths and 2.5 million years of potential life lost (YPLL) each year from 2006-2010. Economic costs associated with excessive alcohol consumption skyrocketed to more than $249 billion.
Drinking a beer or a glass of wine is typical to end a long day in U.S. culture, but where do you draw the line between moderation and alcohol use disorder (AUD)? Drinking in moderation means women consume no more than one drink and men consume no more than two drinks in a 24-hour period. This translates to 1.5 ounces of liquor, five ounces of wine, and 12 ounces of beer.
Other ways to observe one's drinking patterns is to weigh how much is consumed in a given week. Heavy drinking for women means more than seven drinks per week; for men, it is 14 drinks per week. The problem with AUD lies deeper than in how much or how often than someone drinks. The disorder is something that poisons your thoughts and behaviors. Those who exhibit risky behaviors are more at higher risk for alcohol addiction/AUD, and it's worth reading up to see if some of these behaviors are something you or a loved one is experiencing.
Alcoholism is a chronic disease that affects the reward center in the brain. It begins to develop after long binges and heavy drinking, and at this time, a person can become chemically and psychologically dependent. There are certain people, however, who can consume large amounts of alcohol for prolonged periods and not develop dependence. For example, not all college students who binge drink develop alcoholism. Genetics, environment, and other factors can play a role in who develops AUD.
The glorification of alcohol and its legal status within the United States makes it an easy target to presume it's safe. "My friends and celebrities use it, so why can't I?" some think. A drug's legal status doesn't always acknowledge safety or the risks of taking it. At the end of the day, alcohol is still a recreational drug, and drinking in excess has its risks. The most prominent of these risks is the damage to your physical health. Diseases that have been attributed to alcohol abuse are pretty severe. They include cancer, heart disease, stroke, and depression.
Short-Term Health Risks That Excessive Alcohol Use Has Can Include:
Injuries like motor vehicle crashes, falls, drownings, and burns
Violence (homicide/suicide/sexual assault/intimate-partner violence)
Risky sexual behaviors
Miscarriage and stillbirth among pregnant women
Severe and long-term effects from excessive consumption are not any better, and the development of these chronic diseases can cause extensive damage in the form of medical bills, and be highly expensive to treat. These include:
Memory and cognitive learning problems
Severe mental health problems such as anxiety/depression
Decrease in productivity at work or school
Dependence/alcoholism
With these negative effects listed, it is hard to ignore the legality issue and how it relates to safety. Alcohol abuse is on par with the dangers of prescription and illicit drugs. Even though there is easy access and that it's widely recognized in our communities, it should still be taken as an addictive and serious drug. While you may identify as a functioning alcoholic, a high tolerance can still pose these dangers listed above.
Alcohol as portrayed in movies often highlights the drunk stumbling over their feet while walking down the street, slurring their words, and with their clothing ripped and torn. Unfortunately, alcohol is a lot more difficult to spot than Hollywood portrays it because alcoholics try to hide their problem from friends and family.
Howstuffworks.com breaks it down and shows that alcohol affects brain chemistry by altering levels of neurotransmitters.
Neurotransmitters are chemical messengers that transmit signals throughout the body and control thought processes, behavior, and emotion.
As your body grows more and more accustomed to the effects of alcohol, you begin to build a tolerance. It means you require more and more alcohol to gain the desired effects that perhaps one drink used to cause. It may now take four to five drinks to get high after a tolerance begins to develop.
Unfortunately, in our drinking culture, tolerance is often referred to as "holding one's liquor," which doesn't send the signal that problematic drinking for some who drinks. What a high tolerance really means is that you are physically and psychologically growing dependent on this drug; your brain and body need alcohol to maintain its balance. Stopping suddenly could mean less than desirable withdrawals and possibly deadly side effects.
If there is growing concern that either you or a loved one is developing alcohol dependence, there are quite a few signs to indicate whether a moderate drinking problem has grown out of control. In the beginning, signs are a bit more subtle. As time progresses, and the problem becomes more severe, signs will become more pronounced. Here are some signs to look out for if you are concerned about an alcohol addiction:
Drinking to forget problems
Drinking outside of the usual social engagements; drinking alone
Lying about your drinking habits
Feeling irritable if you haven't had a drink in a while
Drinking until blacking out
The biggest red flag of this drinking in the morning or when waking up. Once these points have been achieved, they can lead to increased tolerance, which is drinking more to reach the same point. When a person at this stage of addiction decides to stop drinking, withdrawal symptoms such as shaky hands, irritability, and intense cravings to drink start to appear.
If you are worried that a loved one is struggling with alcohol abuse, there are signs and symptoms to look for, such as:
Sudden decrease in work or school performance
DUI or arrests related to alcohol
Continuing to use alcohol despite negative consequences
Mood swings or personality changes
Alcohol addiction typically needs a full continuum of care that begins with detoxification. Alcohol is extremely addictive, meaning you will have to withdraw from its effects. Depending on the length of use and how much was consumed in a given day, withdrawal can range from mild to severe. If someone has been drinking long enough, the person can attest to having experienced the beginning phases of withdrawal symptoms during brief stints between drinks.
Alcohol is a central nervous system depressant that slows down functions. When you do stop drinking, your functions attempt to return with a vengeance, often working in overdrive. This can lead to insomnia and seizures. Because of these risks, it is highly recommended that a medically supervised detox takes place. Medical detox from alcohol addiction will give you customized around-the-clock care that specializes in addiction treatment. This will allow your transition into sobriety to be as safe and as comfortable as possible. Its sole purpose is to alleviate the worst symptoms involved in detox.
Detox is only the beginning of recovery, and depending on the situation, it is likely that the person in recovery will be placed in a facility that offers residential treatment. This placement will be customized to your exact needs. For it to be effective, expect a 30-day stay at the least.
Is There a Cure?
Physical Dependance
Relation to Depression
Reverse Alcoholism
Ethanol Abuse
Effects on the Liver
The National Institute on Drug Abuse recommends people in recovery follow a treatment plan for at least 90 days. An extended stay can increase someone's chances of having a successful recovery period. You will sit down with a team of medical professionals and help create a plan that addresses all of your psychological, medical, and emotional needs and help you put addiction behind you.
Post-treatment relapse prevention plans should include long-term outpatient services, such as 12-step programs, to help combat relapse. Staying connected to a supportive network of people can help you remain accountable for your actions.
86.4% of people ages 18 and older said they drank alcohol at some point in their lifetime
26.9% of people ages 18 and older said they engaged in binge drinking in the past month
In 2014, alcohol-impaired driving fatalities accounted for 9,967 deaths (31% of overall driving fatalities)
More than 10% of U.S. children live with a parent with alcohol problems
Alcohol Rehab & Detox in Orange County
Alcohol Rehab & Detox in San Bernardino
Alcohol Addiction in San Bernardino County
Alcohol Rehab & Detox in Redlands, CA
Alcohol Rehab & Detox in Riverside County
Overcoming Alcohol Dependence
Christopher Larry, LPT Medical Reviewer
Alcohol and Public Health. (2018, January 03) from https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/alcohol-use.htm
Watson, S. (2018, June 28). How Alcoholism Works from https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/alcoholism4.htm
National Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism (N.D.) from https://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/AlcoholFacts&Stats/AlcoholFacts&Stats.pdf
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