text:
Lokale democratie: opkomst lokale partijen en politieke fragmentatie
Auteurs Raymond Gradus, Tjerk Budding en Elbert Dijkgraaf
Local political parties are clearly on the rise in the Netherlands in both the municipal council and the municipal board. Their average percentage of council seats increased from 25% in 1998 to 37% in 2018 and the percentage of councillors from 21% to 32%. This coincided with a greatly increased fragmentation. For example, the average number of political parties on the council rose from 6.5 in 1998 to 8.0 in 2018 and the number of parties providing one or more aldermen increased from 2.8 to 3.4 during this period. Fragmentation expressed in the number of effective parties shows a similar trend. If we use the Chapel Hill score, it appears that the average political colour of both the municipal council and the alderman part in the municipal board has shifted to the right. This is mainly because political parties are becoming increasingly right wing according to this index and not so much because there are more local votes for right-wing parties. Significant differences in the representative representation are also noted. The local parties as well as the Socialist Party (SP) are less successful than average in converting their seats on the council into councillor seats, while the three large traditional (and especially the CDA) and smaller Christian parties have succeeded above average in this.
Raymond Gradus
Prof. dr. R.H.J.M. Gradus is hoogleraar bestuur en economie van de publieke en non-profitsector aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, en is tevens verbonden aan de vakgroep Accounting en het Zijlstra Center for Public Control, Leadership and Governance.
Tjerk Budding
Dr. G.T. Budding is universitair hoofddocent Management and Financial Accounting en opleidingsdirecteur van de Public Controllersopleidingen aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
Elbert Dijkgraaf
Prof. dr. E. Dijkgraaf is hoogleraar empirische economie van de publieke sector aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam en fellow van het Tinbergen Instituut.
Waar staan lokale partijen? De programmatische positionering van lokale partijen
Auteurs Simon Otjes
Local political parties are an important factor in local politics in the Netherlands. These parties, which participate in municipal elections but are not affiliated with national political parties, are currently the largest 'political family' in the municipal councils. Yet surprisingly little is known about these parties. The existing research indicates that this 'party family' has a protest character. But at the same time, more precise analyses indicate that this party family is more diverse: and that the label 'local party' describes all kinds of different movements. However, a comprehensive analysis of the programmatic positioning of all parties in this family in relation to national parties is lacking. That is the purpose of this article. For this research, all election manifestoes of the departments and parties that participated in the municipal elections in November 2013, March and November 2014, November 2017 and March and November 2018 were collected. On this basis, the positions of all these parties are estimated on the left-right dimension, a scale that measures anti-elitist rhetoric and a scale that measures localism, based on modern quantitative text analysis techniques (bag-of-words approaches). In this way, for the first time, a picture is obtained of the programmatic cohesion and diversity of this party family as a whole.
Simon Otjes
Dr. S.P. Otjes is onderzoeker bij het Documentatiecentrum Nederlandse Politieke Partijen (DNPP) van de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen en universitair docent aan de Universiteit Leiden.
Is Euroscepticism Contagious?
How Mainstream Parties React to Eurosceptic Challengers in Belgian Parliaments
Tijdschrift Politics of the Low Countries, Aflevering Online First 2021
Trefwoorden Euroscepticism, parliaments, party competition, Belgium, federalism
Auteurs Jordy Weyns en Peter Bursens
Euroscepticism has long been absent among Belgian political parties. However, since the start of the century, some Eurosceptic challengers have risen. This article examines the effect of Eurosceptic competition on the salience other parties give to the EU and on the positions these parties take in parliament. Using a sample of plenary debates in the federal and regional parliaments, we track each party's evolution from 2000 until 2019. Our findings both contradict and qualify existing theories and findings on Eurosceptic competition. When facing Eurosceptic challengers, all parties raise salience fairly equally, but government and peripheral parties adopted (soft) Euroscepticism more often than other parties.
Jordy Weyns
Jordy Weyns is a recent graduate from Universiteit Antwerpen, and will soon start a PhD program at the European University Institute in Firenze.
Peter Bursens
Peter Bursens is professor of political science at Universiteit Antwerpen, at the research group Politics and Public Governance and the GOVTRUST Centre of Excellence.
Interest Representation in Belgium
Mapping the Size and Diversity of an Interest Group Population in a Multi-layered Neo-corporatist Polity
Trefwoorden interest groups, advocacy, access, advisory councils, media attention
Auteurs Evelien Willems, Jan Beyers en Frederik Heylen
This article assesses the size and diversity of Belgium's interest group population by triangulating four data sources. Combining various sources allows us to describe which societal interests get mobilised, which interest organisations become politically active and who gains access to the policy process and obtains news media attention. Unique about the project is the systematic data collection, enabling us to compare interest representation at the national, Flemish and Francophone-Walloon government levels. We find that: (1) the national government level remains an important venue for interest groups, despite the continuous transfer of competences to the subnational and European levels, (2) neo-corporatist mobilisation patterns are a persistent feature of interest representation, despite substantial interest group diversity and (3) interest mobilisation substantially varies across government levels and political-administrative arenas.
Evelien Willems
Evelien Willems is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science, University of Antwerp. Her research focuses on the interplay between interest groups, public opinion and public policy.
Jan Beyers
Jan Beyers is Full Professor of Political Science at the University of Antwerp. His current research projects focus on how interest groups represent citizens interests and to what extent the politicization of public opinion affects processes of organized interest representation in public policymaking.
Frederik Heylen
Frederik Heylen holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Antwerp. His doctoral dissertation addresses the organizational development of civil society organizations and its internal and external consequences for interest representation. He is co-founder and CEO of Datamarinier.
Consensus Democracy and Bureaucracy in the Low Countries
Trefwoorden consensus democracy, bureaucracy, governance system, Lijphart, policymaking
Auteurs Frits van der Meer, Caspar van den Berg, Charlotte van Dijck e.a.
Taking Lijphart's work on consensus democracies as our point of departure, we signal a major shortcoming in Lijphart's focus being almost exclusively on the political hardware of the state structure, leaving little attention for the administrative and bureaucratic characteristics of governance systems. We propose to expand the Lijphart's model which overviews structural aspects of the executive and the state with seven additional features of the bureaucratic system. We argue that these features are critical for understanding the processes of policymaking and service delivery. Next, in order to better understand the functioning of the Netherlands and Belgium as consensus democracies, we provide a short analysis of the historical context and current characteristics of the political-administrative systems in both countries.
Frits van der Meer
Frits van der Meer, Professor Institute Public Administration, Leiden University.
Caspar van den Berg, Campus Fryslân, University of Groningen.
Charlotte van Dijck
Charlotte van Dijck, PhD Fellow Research Foundation Flanders (FWO), KU Leuven Public Governance Institute.
Gerrit Dijkstra
Gerrit Dijkstra, Senior Lecturer, Leiden University.
Trui Steen
Trui Steen, Professor, KU Leuven Public Governance Institute.
Dr. G.H. Reussing is onderwijscoördinator van de joint degree Public Governance across Borders aan de Universiteit Twente en redactiesecretaris van Bestuurswetenschappen.
De parlementarisatie van Europees economisch beleid
Trefwoorden European Parliament, politicisation, economic policy, democratic deficit
Auteurs Dr. Adriaan Schout, Jan Marinus Wiersma, Mariana Gomes Neto e.a.
Since the euro crisis the EU has seen a deepening of integration with a new framework for economic and budgetary coordination. With the new framework reforms in pension or housing market are coordinated at the European level. This comprehensive set of rules and monitoring mechanisms has revived the debate on Europe's democratic deficit. This article describes how the European Parliament (EP) tries to fill the democratic void in economic governance. The EP's formal role is limited, but by using mostly informal mechanisms the EP is setting in motion an incremental process towards further control. This development should be seen in light of a political battle on the interpretation of the new rules, which has accordingly become increasingly politicized. The Dutch have always wanted a European economic policy on the basis of technocracy and rules, but at the same time Europe's political union draws ever closer.
Dr. Adriaan Schout
Jan Marinus Wiersma
Mariana Gomes Neto
David Bokhorst
De rollen van de praktijkonderzoeker: getuige-deskundige, sociaal ingenieur en verhalenverteller
Trefwoorden social policy, knowledge utilisation, expert witness, social engineer, storyteller
Auteurs Prof. dr. Godfried Engbersen
This article shows the relevance of Burawoy's analytical categories on the division of scientific labour to analyse the interactions between science and practice. It argues that social scientists need to combine the roles of expert witness, social engineer and storyteller in order to develop a productive relationship with policy makers. It also emphasises the relevance of a permanent dialogue between social scientists and policy makers. However, the analysis disagrees with Burawoy's view that knowledge is based on a consensus between scientists and their publics (consensual knowledge). Burawoy underestimates the risk of a politicisation of science inherent to a close relationship with various 'publics'. The arguments presented in this article are based on the reception of a research project on labour migration from Central and Eastern Europe. This was a hybrid research project in which different actors participated: the Erasmus University, nine Dutch municipalities, the national government and a Dutch knowledge center on urban issues.
Prof. dr. Godfried Engbersen
Prof. dr. G.B.M. Engbersen is hoogleraar Algemene Sociologie aan de Erasmus Universiteit en lid van de Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid


A pair of studies could change the way patients are evaluated for mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, two cancer susceptibility genes closely associated with breast and ovarian cancers, as well as other tumor types. From an inexpensive screening method, to extremely accurate next-generation sequencing, the methods described in the studies could allow more patients to be screened and sequenced with greater accuracy at a reduced cost.
Women who inherit harmful BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations are five times more likely to develop breast cancer over the course of a lifetime, according to the National Cancer Institute. Additionally, women with these mutations are at higher risk of developing early-onset breast and ovarian cancer.
Currently, BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations are identified through full gene sequencing. Although the existing method is relatively accurate when it comes to identifying mutations, it might not always be able to tell which mutations are actually harmful and could lead to the development of cancer.
Additionally, there are some important limitations with this existing method of sequencing, according to Ellen T. Matloff, MS, CGC, certified genetic counselor and Director of Cancer Genetic Counseling at Yale Cancer Center in New Haven, Connecticut.
Matloff said that the cost of the current test is also a concern for many patients. Without insurance, the test costs approximately $4000 per patient, Matloff said.
The researchers found that compared with cells from noncarriers, cells with mutations in one or two copies of BRCA1 or BRCA2 had a distinct gene expression profile when exposed to radiation or other causes of DNA damage. The finding could aid researchers in distinguishing healthy mutation carriers from noncarriers.
The researchers collected white blood cells from 9 healthy women with mutated BRCA1 and 8 healthy women with mutated BRCA2 and then exposed them to radiation. After the radiation exposure, the researchers extracted the total RNA from these cells and compared it to RNA that was obtained from white blood cells from 10 healthy noncarrier women that were also exposed to radiation.
The researchers identified approximately 1500 genes that were expressed differently between the BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers and noncarriers. That list was narrowed down to 18 genes that were most significantly differentiated between the two groups. A validation study using 21 of the differentiated genes and 5 control genes to predict the risk for carrying a mutation was also performed. Finally, blood samples from an independent group of 40 women who were BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 carriers and 17 women who were noncarriers were analyzed. The researchers found that their model had a sensitivity of 95% and 88% specificity.
A large validation study is being developed in Europe and North America to assess whether this method of screening is effective in a much larger and heterogeneous population of patients.
Matloff said that because the test is aimed at healthy carriers and noncarriers, she believes it has the potential to reach a wider population while providing very accurate results, and suggests that it could be used as a screening method.


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Q: How to send serial data from Python script to Arduino on Windows - Nothing Works I can't correctly send data over serial from a Python script to an Arduino Uno. I'm using 9600 baud, and the Arduino correctly resets, but it does not read the char I'm sending from the Python script. I call time.sleep() to ensure the reset on the Arduino does not interfere, and I'm using Windows 7.  I should clarify by saying that my desktop is running the python script and connected via USB to the Serial of my Arduino Uno.  I then have the RX & TX pins (pins 0 & 1) of my Uno connected to my Mega's Serial1 (pins 18 & 19). I then use the Serial Monitor in the Arduino IDE on my laptop (which uses the Mega's regular Serial) to peek at what the Uno is seeing.  Here is the code for the Mega:
void setup() {
  Serial1.begin(9600);
  Serial.begin(9600);
  Serial.println("Master Ready");
}

void loop() {
  if(Serial1.available() > 0) {
    char inByte = Serial1.read();
    Serial.write(inByte);
    Serial.write("\n");
  }
}

Here is the code for the Uno:
void setup() {
  Serial.begin(9600);
  Serial.println("Slave Ready");
}

void loop() {
 if(Serial.available() > 0) {
   char inByte = Serial.read();
   Serial.write(inByte);
   }
}

And finally, here is the python script:
import sys
import serial
import time

ser = serial.Serial("COM23",9600)
n = int(sys.argv[1])
print n

time.sleep(10)
print ser
print n == 41
if (n == 70):
    ser.write(chr(97))
    print 'a'
elif n == 41:
    ser.write('ggggggg')
    print 'b'
elif n == 42:
    ser.write('hello world')
    print 'c'
elif n == 25:
    ser.write(chr(100))
elif n == 26:
    ser.write(chr(101))
elif n == 22:
    ser.write(chr(102))
elif n == 10:
    ser.write(chr(103))
elif n == 4:
    ser.write(chr(104))
elif n == 14:
    ser.write(chr(105))
elif n == 7:
    ser.write(chr(106))
elif n == 11:
    ser.write(chr(105))
elif n == 5:
    ser.write(chr(106))
elif n == 17:
    ser.write(chr(107))

# head - a - 70
# right bicep - b - 41
# right forearm - c - 42
# left bicep - d - 25
# left forearm - e - 26
# chest - f - 22
# right thigh - g - 10
# left thigh - h - 4
# right shin - i - 11 - 14
# left shin - j - 5 - 7
# waist - k - 17

In case it helps, I'm essentially trying to write the hit locations in Doom3 to an Arduino over serial so that the Arduino can turn a motor on in the proper location on your body.  The game code is in C++, and I first tried using a serial library for C++, but that didn't work either.

A: I just came across something similar.  The key here is that it worked when communicating with the arduino from the IDE and failed when using some other serial program.  You have been bit by the auto-reset feature.
Check out this link on the Arduino Playground for a detailed description of what is going on and what to do about it.  The site gives several solutions depending on you skill and comfort level.
I expect your C++ code will work once you implement one of the work arounds from this site.

A: If I understand your physical setup correctly, there appears to be a conflict between the Arudino IDE and python. Only one program by default can open the serial port at a time (like opening a file for exclusive write). If you just use the python script, don't start the arduino IDE and change the ardiuno to turn on an LED when it gets a msg, that should work (if you serial port assignment is correct). The arduino's diagnostic LEDs should blink with normal serial traffic, but for a single msg you might be missing the short blink.
It looks like there is also a conflict between using the serial port between the IDE and between Arduinos. (I don't understand the reason for multiple Arduinos.) Each serial communication pair should be unique. Use the Arduino's SoftwareSerial library to use another pair of digital pins to communicate between the arduinos, not the d0/d1 pins currently used by the FTDI chip to talk to the IDE.
Might also include some diagnostic msgs in the python script if it can't open/communicate with the serial port.

A: Problem:
Serial Communication is not always accurate. Sometimes you can notice that in the Serial Monitor, garbage data that you don't want appearing due to the overlapping of two or more pieces of data from Arduino. Similarly, try sending two values quickly and printing the value on the serial monitor, you will notice the same kind of overlapping. Arduino requires certain delays to work effectively and hence pyserial module is not the best way to use python with Arduino.

Solution:
1) In your python script use the ser.write() or ser.read() functions twice! If you find this irritating, use the next solution.

2 ) Use Arduino_Master_Delta module(python) to communicate with Arduino which is designed especially to ease the process and remove garbage values with advanced data science and visualization functions.
The link to the pip module is Arduino_Master_Delta
With this module installed you can use this statement instead:
import Arduino_Master_Delta as amd
writeSerial(23, msg=' Whatever you want to send to the serial monitor')
# Data will be encoded into bytes and hence use the Serial.readString() in Arduino code
# and then convert the string to your desired data type!

Read the documentation in the above link to learn more !!
BTW I'm the developer of this python module. Do share your view about it.

A: I had a problem too with serial communication, i managed to resolve it by closing the serial monitor in the Arduino. I don't know if you open it when you run your program, but if you do then that might be the problem.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Mortal Kombat 11 Price On Steam Beats Console Prices To A Bloody Pulp
by Deville Louw
in Gaming
Since the reveal of Mortal Kombat 11, fans have been excited to finally get their hands on the game when it releases in April this year. From what has been shown of the game so far, it seems that the world's most popular fighter will once again give fans the gory, bloody and exhilarating combat they've come to expect from the franchise. For those that are looking to pre-order the game, and who are on the fence about which platform to buy, might be a surprise to see that Mortal Kombat 11 is a lot cheaper on Steam than on consoles.
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While it is no secret that PC games, especially when buying from Steam, are mostly cheaper than their console counterparts, it's surprising to see just how much cheaper Mortal Kombat 11 is. It's widely known that these price differences are attributed to all sorts of licencing and royalty fees that developers and publishers have to pay to Sony and Microsoft for distributing games on their systems.
And while this is probably the case here, it's quite shocking to see that Mortal Kombat 11 is currently priced at R335.00 for the standard edition and R549.00 for the premium edition on Steam. That's a lot cheaper compared to the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, where the Standard edition costs around R1069.00 and the Premium edition costs R1479.00.
That's a huge difference in price and will no doubt see many gamers who own both a PC and console gravitating towards the PC version of the game. And why wouldn't they, especially in this economy? For the rest of us though who game on consoles, we'll just have to make do with the more expensive version of the game.
It seems that Mortal Kombat 11 will be worth the price of admission. It's just unfortunate that that price is so much higher for console gamers than PC gamers. These price discrepancies have been a thorn in console gamers' sides for years, making us wonder if Sony and Microsoft shouldn't try and restructure their pricing in order to make it more appealing.
What are your thoughts on this? Does the price differences effect on which platform you purchase your games?
Mortal Kombat 11 will be releasing on the 23rd of April 2019 for the PlayStation 4, Xbox One and PC.
Tags: FeaturedMortal KombatMortal Kombat 11Steam
When It Rains, It Pours In The New Trailer For Netflix's The Umbrella Academy
Anthem's Plant Life Is Freaking Out Some Players
hvd2222 says:
and?i can buy a physical copy on console and i dont need the internet to play it….ill always take off line play over always online.
P13t says:
My internet is always on so I don't care. PC FTW! Why pay nearly 4 times as much for the same game on console.
YOUDIEMOFO says:
Is this something new?? Steam has always had better prices. Have to considering the price it takes to game at todays' console fidelity….
I can game on my $15,000 PC any time i want, but it is more comfortable to play on my consoles with the family any time. I play where and how i want when i want on what i want because i can. That's what i pay for……
Jerzy says:
Cheaper? 233PLN for license from steam vs 228 for ps4 physical version in my country.
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2009. The UB Bulls are coming off a MAC Championship. The coaching staff of Turner Gill used that advantage in recruiting, and they were excited about the incoming class. Especially a player from Florida.
He was a long, lean, undersized linebacker. He wore an unusual linebacker's number, 46. His name was Khalil Mack.
Now I must admit, there have been plenty of times in my role as the Bulls football play-by-play announcer that I've attended practice and been told "wait until you see this freshman. He's gonna be special." More often, they turned into nice players, but never lived up to the hype.
But #46 was different. He looked different. Tall. Athletic. Fast. Quick. He didn't look like the players that UB usually recruited, and he didn't look like any of the players they had at the time. Remember, Mack entered college at 220 pounds.
He had a great story. Injured playing basketball as a junior in Ft. Pierce, FL he missed that football season. That's a big blow for football players, because most scholarship offers come after their junior year. Despite returning and starring as a senior, his only football scholarship offer was to FCS Liberty. But then Gill hired a new coach from Liberty, Robert Wimberly. He mentioned to Gill that there was this linebacker from Florida who he recruited that might be an FBS player. A quick look at the tape convinced Gill to make Mack the offer he desired. The kid from Florida was coming to Buffalo.
During that redshirt season of 2009 when Mack didn't play, he dominated practice on the scout team. Imagine, Mack and future NFL running back Branden Oliver were ripping up the UB starters while they were supposed to be helping them prepare for each week's opponent.
After that redshirt season, Mack was ready to make his debut in 2010. But one thing first. He was going to change his number, from 46 to a more-friendly linebacker number. But the NCAA Football video game came out, and gave Mack a 46 rating. Khalil didn't agree, and for motivation, decided to keep 46 as a daily reminder.
The next season, his redshirt freshman year, Khalil started all 12 games and had 14.5 tackles for loss. He was on his way.
After his junior year, which featured eight sacks, there was some thought that he might declare early for the NFL Draft. But at the urging of NFL scouts, and his mother (a teacher), he returned for another year and a college degree.
How good was he? Was the level a competition a problem? Would he be the first Bull selected in the first round?
All those questions were answered with a dominant season opening performance against Ohio State: 9 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 interception returned for a TD.
As former Bulls quarterback Joe Licata told me in the Daily Drive podcast, when the highlights were shown at the next team meeting, one of Mack's teammates coughed the word "millions" under his breath as Khalil was diving towards the end zone.
Khalil was the 5th overall pick in the 2014 draft, the start of an amazing NFL career that continues with his trip to Buffalo Sunday.
The Khalil Mack I got to know was an incredibly hard worker, dedicated to making himself better and proving everyone wrong. He had the help of fellow Floridian Oliver, and together they drove each other to professional careers.
It's a great story, that might have been written some other way if Mack hadn't hurt that knee in high school, hadn't seen that Liberty assistant come to Buffalo, hadn't used the recruiting slight as inspiration, hadn't met a friend and inspiration like Oliver, and hadn't used the spirit of UB and Buffalo to mold him as a man.
I'm proud to know Khalil Mack. It still makes me smile to remember how he used to greet me with "Hey, Double-P" every time he walked on the road trip charter flights.
While I know Bills fans won't be rooting for him Sunday, I suggest you add him to your list of favorite non-Bills NFL players. After all, he's got a lot of Buffalo under that Silver and Black.
Khalil Mack's brother is already here and playing in Buffalo. Read his story here.


The first game of the day remains goalless as PSG and Le Mans shoot blanks in a tactical encounter at the Parc des Princes.
PSG and Le Mans played out a tactical draw in the first of the Matchday 24 games at a packed Parc des Princes. It was Rudy Garcia's side first ever top-flight league draw at the famous stadium.
New midfielder Willamis Souza was introduced on the right of midfield for PSG and proved to be his team's most effective player throughout the first-half. The 29-year-old Brazilian provided the cross for a Sylvain Armand header in the 24th minute as the capital team dominated the early exchanges.
PSG 'keeper Mickaël Landreau had to be sharp eight minutes later though when Stephane Sessegnon tried from long range. And four minutes before the break, les Manceaux came close to opening the scoring when Geder headed narrowly wide.
Souza, after a decent debut, made way for Parc des Princes favourite Pauleta but not before Yohann Pelé produced a magnificent save to foil a goal-bound Mario Yépes header. The visiting response was immediate with Japanese striker Dasiuke Matsui shooting just over.
But as the game entered the final third, PSG went for the jugular. First Clément Chantôme volleyed into Pelé's arms before Amara Diané put the rebound wide. The Ivorian missed the target again with seven minutes left on the clock and despite their frantic attempts to put Le Mans under pressure Paul Le Guen's men failed to find the back of the net.


text:
Game Maker Rod Humble on Fayum and the Future of Gaming
by Lindsey Westbrook, February 2017
Rod Humble is a professional maker of games for PC, and in a broad field he's an unusual case. Not only has he worked for many of the large video-game companies in a senior-level capacity — Linden Lab (Second Life), ToyTalk, Electronic Arts (The Sims), and Jam City (formerly SGM) — he has also maintained a parallel practice in which he's developed several of his own games as a form of art and self-expression.
As one of PlaySFMOMA's inaugural Gamers in Residence, Humble dreamed up a new game for the museum, which he presented to visitors during a public playtest in the White Box on August 11, 2016. This story marks the public release of that game, which was previously available only via private links and at SFMOMA on the day of the interactive workshop. You can access it here.
Photo: Kathryn Booth
Humble is part of a growing group of game developers who are interested in vastly broadening the medium in noncompetitive, experimental, expressive, and artistic directions — in a sense, making games that probe our usual understanding of the word "game." As part of his residency he toured the museum while it was under construction. "And it was very powerful," he says, "because it felt like the building was having major surgery, or even being killed and redone — and I found that subject to be very close to my heart. So the game I built was called Fayum, which is an old art form, specifically a portrait placed on top of the face of the dead. I wanted to make a portrait of SFMOMA using game mechanics."
Fayum is a procedurally generated universe. Theoretically, you could play it forever. The player goes from artist to artist and into worlds to experience artworks. "You can either be repelled by a work," notes Humble, in which case you'll get booted out; or you can take something from it, in which case an element of the work will follow you, become your buddy. And hopefully you as the player are making your own art as well, because you can put together these wonderful movements and flows."
Courtesy Rod Humble
There are various language components, too. The game applies a code-breaking algorithm in reverse, generating phrases that look semi-English, "to cover the language aspect, which is so important when you're discussing art." Humble also transcribed selections from early twentieth-century art theory, and fragments of these are randomly presented throughout the game. "I took the liberty of throwing in a bunch of my own stuff and purging the art theory I didn't like, or changing it deliberately. For example, I took Wassily Kandinsky's quote, 'I don't want to paint music,' and I changed it to, 'I do want to paint music.' And I banned the Futurists, because they were too sexist for me. [Laughs] Even though they were quite bold."
The PlaySFMOMA public playtest was personally rewarding for Humble, and also informative in a practical sense. Accounting for audiences who were not playing the game, but watching others play it, introduced a new dynamic, albeit one that harks back to the oldest computer games, arcade games. With arcade games, watching others play, socially, is a fundamental part of participation.
"One couple just loved sitting there watching kids play the game," he remembers. "Some of my favorite reactions were people who simply sat and observed, and said, 'That's really beautiful.' And then they'd look at the binder, which talked about some of the symbolism and issues in the work, and they'd either be surprised or want more of that. I hope it gave the experience an extra bit of spiritual value."
He also notes that the usual "don't touch" rules for museums were enjoyably inverted. "Kids have zero fear about approaching a game and playing it, in a museum or wherever."
Humble is entirely optimistic about the fundamental democracy of games and gaming. He appreciates that games built for PC are as accessible as computer games can be, since they require no extra hardware. And he observes more broadly that game developers and game players today seem receptive to all sorts of characters — characters of color, gay and lesbian characters, women characters — as long as the production values are high and the emotional qualities are authentic.
"My biggest hope is that people will start to think of games in a more high-art way. They can be such useful tools for perceiving the world differently. Gaming is the dominant form of entertainment in the world today, in the sense that it makes the most money and is played by the most people. But when people think about high art, they're not quite ready to go there.
"Great art can give you a new way of looking at things. It can make you feel something that you didn't expect. It can turn you into a broader person. And games can demonstrably do those things as well."
Lindsey Westbrook
Lindsey Westbrook is a freelance editor and writer specializing in art, architecture, and design. Her clients include SFMOMA, Istanbul Modern, UC Press, Princeton Architectural Press, Kunsthalle Basel, the Museum of Contemporary Art Detroit, the Felix Gonzalez-Torres Foundation, and many others.
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Q: Filter to obtain MMSE of data from Gaussian vector Data sampled at two time instances giving bivariate Gaussian vector $X=(X_1,X_2)^T$ with
$f(x_1,x_2)=\exp(-(x_1^2+1.8x_1x_2+x_2^2)/0.38)/2\pi \sqrt{0.19}$
Data measured in noisy environment with vector:
$(Y_1,Y_2)^T=(X_1,X_2)^T+(W_1,W_2)^T$
where $W_1,W_2$ are both $i.i.d.$ with $\sim N (0,0.2)$.
I have found correlation coefficient of $X_1,X_2$, $\rho=-0.9$ and $X_1,X_2 \sim N(0,1)$
Question: How to design filter to obtain MMSE estimator of $X_1$ from $Y$ vector and calculate MSE of this estimator?

A: What you need is $\mathbb{E}(X_1 \mid Y_1, Y_2)$.  We have
$$
\operatorname{var}\begin{bmatrix} X_1 \\  Y_1 \\  Y_2 \end{bmatrix} = \left[\begin{array}{r|rr} 1 & 1 & -0.9 \\  \hline1 & 1.02 & -0.9 \\ -0.9 & -0.9 & 1.02 \end{array}\right]= \begin{bmatrix} \Sigma_{11} & \Sigma_{12} \\ \Sigma_{12}^\top & \Sigma_{22} \end{bmatrix}.
$$
So the conditional expected value is
$$
\mathbb{E}(X_1) + \Sigma_{12} \Sigma_{22}^{-1}
\left(
\begin{bmatrix} Y_1 \\ Y_2 \end{bmatrix} - \mathbb{E}\begin{bmatrix} Y_1 \\ Y_2 \end{bmatrix}.
\right)
$$
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_normal_distribution#Conditional_distributions

A: This looks like homework but here goes.  Since everything is Gaussian, the MMSE estimator for $X_1$ is the mean of the conditional pdf of $X_1$ given $(Y_1, Y_2)$ and the mean square error is the conditional variance of this.  Do you know how to find the conditional pdf (hint: it is also Gaussian)


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Die Liste der Monuments historiques in Itteville führt die Monuments historiques in der französischen Gemeinde Itteville auf.

Liste der Bauwerke

|}

Liste der Objekte
 Monuments historiques (Objekte) in Itteville der Base Palissy des französischen Kultusministeriums

Literatur
 Le Patrimoine des Communes de l'Essonne. Flohic Éditions, Band 1, Paris 2001, ISBN 2-84234-126-0, S. 428–429.

Weblinks

 Monuments historiques (Bauwerke) in Itteville in der Base Mérimée des französischen Kultusministeriums

Itteville

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Rosatom and Chile's Atomic Energy Commission have signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in the field of education and personnel training for Chile's nuclear energy industry, while Rusatom Automated Control Systems, a Rosatom subsidiary, and China Techenergy, a division of China General Nuclear Power Corp, signed a Memorandum of Cooperation covering projects in Russia, China and third countries.
Rosatom and Cuba's Ministry of Science, Technology, and Environment have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and Strategic Partnership on the development and use of irradiation technologies. Areas of cooperation include a project to develop a multi-purpose training centre based on a gamma-radiation facility in the Mariel Special Economic Development Zone.
Rusatom Service has signed a trilateral MoU on cooperation in the field of nuclear infrastructure and personnel training with JSC VPO ZAES and DEKRA Finland Oy, and another with VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and Saanio&Riekkola Oy. Rusatom Service provides services for the maintenance and repair of nuclear power plants that operate VVER-type reactors outside Russia.
An MoU signed between the Rusatom International Network and the Association of the Hungarian Atomic Forum concerns the Paks II nuclear power plant construction project in Hungary. It aims to strengthen Russian-Hungarian relations through the exchange of information and cooperation in sourcing local expertise for the Paks II project.
Rusatom Healthcare and Shar Parto Iranian have signed an agreement to create a network of irradiation centres in Iran. The facilities, equipped with electron accelerators and gamma ray units, will be used to provide commercial services to sterilize pharmaceutical, cosmetic and medical products, as well as food products.
Rosatom's engineering division, Atomenergomash, has signed an MoU with the Italian mechanical engineering and critical process equipment manufacturing company Belleli Energy CPE. The document covers the engineering, manufacturing and supply of critical process equipment primarily for oil and gas markets in Russia and abroad.
Science and Innovations, another Rosatom subsidiary, and the National Nuclear Centre of Kazakhstan have signed a memorandum on scientific and technical cooperation, including improving the safety of nuclear reactors, creating and improving the characteristics of reactor fuel, testing of fuel for research reactors, and the exchange of scientific and technical information.
Rosatom MENA, Rosatom's regional centre for the Middle East and North Africa, and Saudi Arabia-based Sumou Holding Company have signed an MoU covering the infrastructure security systems, construction, isotope and wind turbine sectors in Saudi Arabia.
Rusatom International Network and IDOM Consulting, Engineering, Architecture of Spain have signed an MoU on expanding their collaboration in the maintenance and modernisation of nuclear power plants, as well as the service and construction of nuclear research facilities, nuclear fuel cycle at back-end stage, decommissioning, and the supply of Rosatom equipment for nuclear and thermal power plants.
Rosatom and the Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation and Electric Power of Sudan have signed a Memorandum on Cooperation in nuclear personnel training and an agreement on fostering positive public opinion towards nuclear energy in Sudan.
Rosatom and the Serbian government have signed a document on the principles of Russian-Serbian cooperation in the field of innovation and technological development with the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
Rosatom and Zambia have signed a general contract for the construction of a Centre for Nuclear Science and Technology aimed at ensuring a wide application of radiation technologies in medicine, industry and agriculture.


The calling of the Methodist Church is to respond to the gospel of God's love in Christ and to live out its discipleship in worship and mission. This is undertaken through: Worship, Learning & Caring, Service and Evangelism.
We take seriously the words of Jesus Christ: 'Go and make disciples of all nations'. We acknowledge that while there are many things that are important to our church, our first responsibility is how we handle God's message of grace and call to commitment. Everything else that we do will flow from this.
God is not someone else's God. He is ours - not because we own Him, but because He owns us. We praise because we have received His mercy and grace. Our worship will use the best forms and content to declare the greatness of our God in our daily lives.
God is not our God alone. He is the world's - not just because He made it, but because He loves it and in the life, death and resurrection of Jesus offers it life and light. This hope does not belong to us, it is God's message for our world, including the streets and suburbs of Aberdeen. We will bring the hope of Jesus Christ to our hopeless world, and will not be ashamed to use both actions and words.
God is not just interested in the world 'out there'. He is interested in us. We must take care of our hearts, souls, minds and bodies, for these are where the Kingdom of God takes root in our lives. We will provide opportunities for that care for all our members, offering spiritual food, practical support and personal prayer, both through groups and individuals.


Fill out the form below to request a quote for one or all of your next installation services. Please include as much information as possible in your request along with any and all project details or comments. Include your service description in the project details section if it does not appear on the checklist. For more information check out our frequently asked questions.


Ritual Yin classes are composed of Yin and other long-form stretching yoga styles set to soothing beats in our heated room. This 50-minute class is designed to help you unwind through meditation, breath work, and deep muscle opening. Props such as blocks and yoga straps are used in this class to aid in supporting and relaxing the body. Class finishes with a cool eucalyptus towel and massage.
There are no upcoming "Ritual Yin" classes on this day.
Great class but not enough awareness of alternatives for injured or disabled folks. This particular class was heavily focused on stretching joints and as a person with permanent ankle damage there was a lot I could not safely do and no one checked on me at any point with adjustments. The instructors were otherwise really nice, the space is lovely, I had a great sweat and stretch.
Weird, uncomfortable studio. The music playing when I walked in was really offensive. The yoga studio was crowded and the studio floor was covered in odd rubber mats so the floor was uneven where my mat was-did not feel good lying down. Really odd music for a yin class. Not traditional yin style or poses. I am a yoga instructor, so maybe a little more critical, but I didn't enjoy the sequence at all. Someone was walking around giving odd 'adjustments' with no pressure so it just felt like an awkward touch. Nice instructor, but I'll never go back.
I love the ambience and how the instructor and another person walk around to correct your moves and give you a little massage. There are only two showers though so plan to wait for the shower to become available.
Love the themed class on the heart chakra and heart openers. Perfect evening class!


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Q: Does Ruby provide a way to do File.read() with specified encoding? In ruby 1.9.x, we can specify the encoding with File.open('filename','r:iso-8859-1'). I often prefer to use a one-line File.read() if I am reading many short files into strings directly. Is there a way I can specify the encoding directly, or do I have to resort to one of the following?
str = File.read('filename')
str.force_encoding('iso-8859-1')

or
f = File.open('filename', 'r:iso-8859-1')
s = ''
while (line = f.gets)
    s += line
end
f.close

A: From the fine manual:

read(name, [length [, offset]], open_args) → string
Opens the file, optionally seeks to the given offset, then returns length bytes (defaulting to the rest of the file). read ensures the file is closed before returning.
If the last argument is a hash, it specifies option for internal open().

So you can say things like this:
s = File.read('pancakes', :encoding => 'iso-8859-1')
s.encoding
#<Encoding:ISO-8859-1>


text:
Club Name : Maritime Camero Club
Address : 3603 Merson Ave.
City : Bridgewater
URL : http://www.maritimecamaroclub.com
Contact Name : Bernie Petolas
E-mail : maritimecamaroclub@gmail.com
In August 1990, Dave Ellingwood of Bridgewater NS, bought a 1980 Z28 and joined the International Camaro Club in September of the same year armed with the knowledge that with 6 registered members to the ICC, we could become a chartered member of the ICC. With all the Camaros around Dave thought that to be an easy job. Not so! By 1993 there were 3 main members, Bob Ronan, Tony Rafuse, and Dave with meetings at a pizza place in Chester Basin with the odd person or member showing up besides those three. The criteria for being a member of our club were to join the ICC and automatically be a member of the Nova Scotia Chapter of the ICC. Since the club was not growing fast enough, we decided to put on the 1st Annual Camaro Car Show, 12 June 1994. To our surprise, the club grew a little faster and next month when Dave went to the ICC show in Pocanno Penn. he received our charter. The club was on its way.
When we had our 2nd annual car show, the show grew along with membership and the birth of the Bluenose Camaro Club. The meetings started happening around this time on a more regular bases with Dave becoming president. giving up treasurer to Vic and secretary to Doug as he was doing it all to this point. Meeting went from Chester Basin to Tim Hortons in Burnside, then to the A&W in Burnside, and on to its present location at Arby's and the new club name Maritime Camaro Club. The club currently has 50 members from all over the Maritimes. With the demise of the ICC in 2000, the club is now a chapter of the Worldwide Camaro Association, based in Orlando, Florida.


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Posts tagged "Yankees jerseys"
Cheap Yankees Jerseys Authentic Womens
Posted July 5th, 2017 by admin .
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Alex Cobb and Ubaldo Jimenez threw only one bad pitch each.
The big difference in Tampa Bay's 5-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday was that there was a runner on base when Evan Longoria hit Jimenez's pitch out for a two-run homer in the sixth inning and the Rays' first lead of the game.
"It wasn't all that bad of a pitch," Longoria said. "It was one of those situations where I just felt like I could pick a location and the pitch and try and swing to it, and I got the right one."
Jimenez, who had given up only two hits in the first five innings, had 1-0 lead when his inside fastball caught a little too much of the plate.
"I wouldn't call it a mistake because I wanted it inside and it was inside," Jimenez said. "Looked like he was looking for it and he just put a good swing on it."
Longoria's 15th home run of the season came after a walk by Mallex Smith. Steven Souza Jr. added another home run and Cobb pitched seven strong innings for the Rays. Souza's 21st homer of the season came off reliever Darren O'Day in the seventh.
Cobb (9-6) gave up one run on four hits with six strikeouts. He has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
Jonathan Schoop's home run off Cobb had given the Orioles a 1-0 lead in the fourth.
"It was a horrible pitch, right down the middle," Cobb said. "So my thought was missed pitch, home run, turn the page."
It was the team-leading 22nd home run for Schoop, who has driven in runs in nine of his last 10 games.
Jimenez (4-7), who lasted a total of 5 2/3 innings in his first two starts against Tampa Bay this season, gave up two runs on three hits in six innings.
"He was good, real good facing one of best pitchers in the league," Baltimore manager Buck Showalter said. "He was almost as good as Cobb was."
Longoria had three of the Rays' eight hits, including an eighth-inning single while the Rays were tacking on a couple of runs against Baltimore reliever Zach Britton.
BIG EIGHT
The Rays view their upcoming eight-game trip to New York and Houston as a make-or-break point in their season. The four-game weekend series against the Yankees will be "the biggest series of the season, hands down," Cobb said. "This will be pretty indicative of what kind of team we are," Longoria cheap jerseys said, "and we'll definitely get a feel for how we play under pressure."
ORIOLES: 1B Chris Davis was back in the lineup after missing two games with a stomach virus. "He feels remarkably better," Showalter said. "He was pretty sick."
RAYS: RHP Jake Odorizzi was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a lower back strain but hopes to miss only two starts. "It's been something I've been dealing with, managing, pitching through all season," Odorizzi said. "Let it cool down." … OF Kevin Kiermaier (fractured hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Class-A Charlotte on Thursday.
ORIOLES: RHP Chris Tillman (1-5) and Texas RHP Andrew Cashner (5-8) are Friday night's starters.
RAYS: RHP Chris Archer (7-6) looks to get Tampa Bay off to a good start to its road trip against LHP CC Sabathia (9-3) and the New York Yankees on Thursday night. "We're going to display what type team we really are," Archer said. "I think with how we've been playing this year, we're ready."
Posted in	MLB	Tagged as cheap Alex Cobb jersey, cheap Andrew Cashner jersey, cheap CC Sabathia jersey, cheap Chris Archer jersey, cheap Chris Davis jersey, cheap Chris Tillman jersey, cheap Rays jerseys, cheap Steven Souza Jr. jersey, cheap Ubaldo Jimenez jersey, cheap Zach Britton jersey, Orioles youth jerseys, Yankees jerseys
Cheap Chase Headley Jersey China Online
Posted May 16th, 2017 by admin .
Todd Frazier will always remember his first home at-bat as a member of the New York Yankees.
And not for all good reasons.
Frazier, acquired by the Yankees last week as part of a deal with the Chicago White Sox, came up with the bases loaded in the second inning Tuesday night and proceeded to bounce into a triple play against the Cincinnati Reds.
With rookie Reds starter Luis Castillo on the mound at Yankee Stadium, Matt Holliday singled to right, Didi Gregorius singled to right and Chase Headley singled to left to load the bases in the second.
Frazier, batting seventh, hit a hard grounder up the middle. Reds shortstop Jose Peraza fielded it, stepped on second and threw to first. Gregorius, who had been on second base, held up when the ball was hit in case it was caught. He was late to advance, and first baseman Joey Votto's throw across the diamond caught him in a rundown. Gregorius was called out for running wide of the baseline while trying to avoid a tag.
It went down as a 6-3-5-6 triple play and was the second of that variety in Major League Baseball history. The other was turned by the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1970.
It also marked the first triple play turned by Cincinnati since 1995 and the first against the Yankees since 2011.
"I might've set cheap mlb jerseys a record," Frazier said afterward. "Got to be a record."
Holliday did score on the play to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead in an eventual 4-2 win.
The last time a run scored on a triple play was in 2006.
"Can laugh about it now," Frazier said. "At the time, I was pretty upset. It was just unbelievable. Hopefully, that doesn't ever happen again."
Back in the Bronx for the first time since the All-Star break, the Yankees brought along Frazier and relievers David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, all acquired last week in a trade with the White Sox.
Frazier made the two-hour drive from his hometown of Toms River near the Jersey Shore, and he had his own personal rooting section in tow.
Once the game started, Frazier got a welcoming introduction from the public-address announcer, a shoutout from the Bleacher Creatures and a warm ovation from his new fans.
Then, with a bunch of family members and friends packed in the stands, he stepped up to the plate with the bases loaded, hoping to do something really special.
Instead, the bizarre ensued.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi could only hang his head on the dugout railing after the sequence.
"A strange play," he said.
Castillo, making just his seventh MLB appearance, was left with a memory, despite taking the loss.
"I will never forget that. Triple play, bases loaded. That's amazing," he said. "If double play's the best friend of a pitcher, what about a triple play?"
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Cheap Reds Jerseys Authentic Womens
Posted February 13th, 2017 by admin .
NEW YORK — Luis Severino is pitching like an ace for the New York Yankees, a year after his severe sophomore slump.
Severino dominated reeling Cincinnati for seven innings,Didi Gregorius and Todd Frazier homered and the Yankees beat the Reds 9-5 on Wednesday for a two-game sweep.
New York has won consecutive series after going 0-8-2 in series after sweeping Baltimore from June 9-11. The Yankees, one game behind AL East-leading Boston, have stabilized by winning eight of 12 following a 7-19 slide.
"Every good team needs that guy that goes out there every fifth day and gives us a chance to win, and cheap jerseys he's been that guy for us," CC Sabathia said.
Severino (7-4) did not allow a runner past second base until the seventh, when he allowed a pair of unearned runs after Gregorius misplayed Scott Schebler's leadoff grounder to shortstop. Severino struck out nine — eight swinging — many on a devastating slider. He threw 48 fastballs, 43 sliders and 21 changeups. And he made a nifty barehand grab to throw out Jose Peraza on a chopper for the final out in the seventh.
"I thought he threw an outstanding game, and I thought he had command of everything today," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "Maybe some of the best stuff he's had all year long."
Severino was 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in the final two months of the 2015 season but was demoted to the minors for long stretches last year and even sent to the bullpen, finishing 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA with the Yankees. Mixing his pitches and showing better control, he has allowed one earned run in 21 innings since the All-Star break.
"If there's a guy that I haven't seen before that looks like an ace, it's that kid," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "I mean it's a quick arm, three pitches for strikes, he'll throw them all in any count, and he throws `em with command. That's a difference maker. That's certainly a guy you can build a rotation around."
Gregorius hit his fourth homer in three games for the Yankees, who have won five of six heading into a series against AL rival Tampa Bay. Acquired last week from the Chicago White Sox, Todd Frazier hit a solo homer against Tony Cingrani that capped a five-run seventh , opening a 9-2 lead.
"In the pinstripes, hitting a home run on your home turf, basically — you live an hour away. It's pretty memorable," said Frazier, who is from Toms River, New Jersey. "I know I'll be getting a lot of texts from all my Yankee fan friends. It was cool. My parents are happy. Everybody's happy."
Cincinnati has lost three straight and is 2-11 since the All-Star break. Homer Bailey (2-5) lost his third start in a row, giving up seven runs — five earned — and 10 hits in six-plus innings.
Rookie Clint Frazier, taking advantage of playing time while Aaron Hicks recovers from an oblique strain, hit RBI singles in the third and fifth innings, and Chase Headley hit an RBI single in the sixth and scored on Ronald Torreyes' groundout. Throwing errors by shortstop Jose Peraza and first baseman Joey Votto made the runs unearned.
Eugenio Suarez stopped Severino's scoreless streak at 17 innings with an RBI double in the seventh and scored on Tucker Barnhart's groundout. Adam Duvall added a three-run homer in the eighth against Luis Cessa.
Posted in	MLB	Tagged as Chase Headley jersey, cheap Aaron Hicks jersey, cheap Adam Duvall jersey, cheap CC Sabathia jersey, cheap Clint Frazier jersey, cheap Didi Gregorius jersey, cheap Eugenio Suarez jerseycheap Ronald Torreyes jersey, cheap Scott Schebler jersey, cheap Todd Frazier jersey, cheap Tony Cingrani jersey, cheap Tucker Barnhart jersey, wholesale Reds jerseys, wholesale White Sox jerseys, Yankees jerseys
Cheap Jeff Samardzija Jersey Online
Posted January 30th, 2017 by admin .
With the San Francisco Giants out of the playoff hunt, it wouldn't be a shock to see Jeff Samardzija's name in trade chatter. But the pitcher likely won't be on the move, especially because he has a say in the matter.
Rumor CentralAndrew Baggarly of San cheap jerseys mlb Jose's Mercury News reports that Samardzija is unwilling to lift his no-trade clause, which allows him to reject any trade to 22 teams.
"Obviously it hasn't gone the way we wanted it to, which has put some people in some trade talks," Samardzija said. "But we also know that we have a great core of guys here [and] as long as we do our jobs and have confidence and momentum and excitement, we're going to do really well."
He added to Baggarly that he loves being in San Francisco.
Samardzija, 32, is in the second year of a five-year, $90 million deal that brought him to San Francisco last season after a year with the Chicago White Sox. He has struggled to a 5-11 record this season with a 4.85 ERA. One thing the right-hander can provide to any team is innings, as he has topped 200 frames each of the past four seasons.
Of the eight teams that Samardzija can be traded to without his permission, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals and New York Yankees all are in the market for starting pitching but seem to be focused on higher-end options. It remains to be seen if a market will develop around Samardzija, but he maintains some control of his destiny.
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Cheap Authentic Diamondbacks Jerseys Online
Posted January 22nd, 2017 by admin .
A few weeks before the trade deadline a year ago, the Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman, a star reliever who would spend one-third of a regular season and one full postseason in Chicago before hitting free agency.
Earlier this month, the Diamondbacks acquired J.D. Martinez, a star outfielder who will spend one-third of a regular season and (most likely) one full postseason in Arizona before hitting free agency.
The way we ordinarily assess major leaguers — by their WAR, for instance, or their projected WAR or even by how much a major league team is willing to pay them to play baseball — Martinez and Chapman are comparable. Chapman signed an $86 million contract last offseason; Martinez looks poised to get roughly that much. They are of roughly equal value. This is truly basic analysis, but it's basically true analysis.
The Cubs gave up far, far more in trade to get Chapman than the Diamondbacks did to get Martinez. The Cubs gave up one of the 10 best prospects in baseball; the Diamondbacks gave up one of the 10 best prospects in the Diamondbacks system, perhaps. It follows, then, that either the Cubs got suckered or the Diamondbacks got a steal, and the Yankees were brilliant or the Tigers blew it. Maybe to all of that.
I'm here to warn you against declaring suckers and bargains at the trade deadline. The trade deadline is a borderline irrational marketplace that defies the sort of precision analysis we typically apply to transactions.
What makes the July market so bonkers?
1. Supply and demand fluctuate wildly from year to year — or even week to week.
Unlike the offseason, when the vast majority of teams are trying to improve in a general and immediate sense, trade deadline teams' incentives are narrowly tailored to the standings, and their rosters are largely already set. Meanwhile, there isn't a batch of dozens of free agents to choose from; there is a small handful of players available from out-of-it teams.
As Dave Cameron wrote for FanGraphs after the Martinez deal, this month there just weren't any teams with a big enough need to bid against the Diamondbacks.
You can basically go through every contender in baseball and not really find another team like the Diamondbacks. They're the only team who had the obvious corner-outfield need and the incentive to upgrade for the rest of 2017. Other teams were probably interested, but likely not interested enough to really push that hard for Martinez.
The other side of pricing is, of course, supply. And while there don't seem to be that many teams buying corner-outfield rentals, there are a bunch of teams selling them.
Compare that to the 2014 trade deadline, when Boston was shopping Andrew Miller, who had recently broken out as a top setup man in his final season before free agency. There were no other premium relievers available on the market that week, and according to Boston GM Ben Cherington, every contender in baseball called about Miller. The result: Boston got back a top-100 pitching prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez) in a move that Keith Law called "the best value move of the day," bumming out Orioles partisans.
2. One trading partner might be more motivated to make a deal than the other.
In the offseason, even a rebuilding team can justify keeping its players, knowing that they'll have another chance to cash in at the trade deadline (and that they might sell some season tickets in the meantime). But the Tigers, pretty much out of contention and about to see Martinez hit free agency, had almost no choice but to move him.
They could have tried waiting to see if another buyer emerged — either because another team got hot and played itself into contention or because an established contender was hit by an injury — but they couldn't really not trade Martinez. The only leverage they had over the Diamondbacks was to bluff; otherwise, the Diamondbacks had much more power to set the price.
3. Not all buyers have the same reasons to buy.
The vast majority of teams go into an offseason hoping to win their division, not sure (beyond a range of 10 or 15 or so victories) how many games they'll end up winning and not sure how many victories will be necessary. With this broad uncertainty, every win added is valuable. More important, every additional win is equally valuable for all competitive teams. Their goals for the offseason are all more or less the same: Get good players to win as many games as possible.
The trade deadline, though, comes when two-thirds of the season is finished, and a lot of the standings are baked firm. For a team such as the Royals, one or two wins could be the difference between winning a division and missing the playoffs entirely, a difference that could mean tens of millions of dollars in revenue and a dramatically different mood all offseason. But for a team such as the Astros, up by 17 games in the AL West, even 15 extra wins probably change absolutely nothing. The Royals, then, would theoretically be rational if they put a much higher value on a veteran upgrade than the Astros would.
Or wait! Maybe it's the opposite. The Astros know that they'll be playing in the American League Division Series. They know that they have a reasonable chance of winning a World Series and that whomever they add will be playing incredibly important games. The Royals, meanwhile, might need upgrades to stay alive in this race — but even if they stay alive, they might not make it to the postseason, and even if they make it to the postseason, it might be for only one game. If the point is to win or get close to a World Series, there's a much better chance that a Royals trade would turn out to be for nothing.
Which is to say that the incentives are complicated, and every contending team has its own variables that change every day: how close they are to the division title, how close they are to a wild card, how much they value home-field advantage in a possible wild-card game, how strong their outlook is after this season. In the offseason, 15 teams might look at J.D. Martinez and value him close to equally. That isn't true 100 games into a season.
4. July standings rev up rivalries.
With fewer teams in contention, with less ambiguity about which teams you're battling, with probable playoff matchups foreseeable and with a small number of teams looking to upgrade at any position, it's easier in July to see an acquisition as also obstructing a direct competitor's pursuit. A player's value to a team could be, in the right circumstances, just about doubled.
This was certainly part of what made the Yankees' acquisition last week of third baseman Todd Frazier and relievers David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle such a coup in their pursuit of the division-leading Red Sox: Those are "three players who could have helped address the Red Sox's two most glaring needs," as ESPN's Scott Lauber put it, and Frazier in particular was probably the last true third baseman on the trade market.
5. The playoffs are a whole new ballgame.
At this point last year, Cleveland had a comfortable lead in its division and a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus. With such an easy path to October, giving up two top prospects for Andrew Miller — now a bona fide relief ace — didn't mean much for the rest of the regular season. (They won their division by eight games.) But the Indians knew that when the postseason came around, they would be able to guarantee that Miller would be on the mound in some of the biggest moments of their season. The difference between acquiring him and not acquiring him would be dramatic; a World Series appearance might ride on a single at-bat Miller could be held back for.
This is not true for the Diamondbacks and Martinez. He'll bat when his turn in the lineup comes up. The closer to the postseason we get, the more it might make sense to invest in October-specific value rather than an April-to-September roster.
6. Clubhouse chemistry is complicated.
The conventional wisdom around baseball these days is that good clubhouse chemistry is desirable and important but hard to engineer or anticipate or even assess. This is all amplified for a player added midseason, who joins a team that already has its culture, its narrative arc, its pregame music routines and its post-hit celebration memes. The player added midseason doesn't go through the cheap mlb jerseys authentic team-building rituals of spring training. And the player added midseason joins a team that, mostly likely, has had success. If that success suddenly evaporates, he is the new variable who might well be blamed.
See, for instance, the panic that grew throughout the summer of 2014 after the A's traded Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and went 22-33 thereafter. It wasn't Lester who was blamed, but the trade took on totemic significance in the collapse narrative — a narrative even the players bought into.
7. The future is unwritten.
The Cubs this month traded for Jose Quintana. As all players' are, Quintana's next few months and next few years are unpredictable. When Baseball Prospectus used its PECOTA projections to forecast him before the season, for instance, it figured that he was a three-WAR pitcher, but it also allowed that there was a 10 percent chance he'd be a five-WAR pitcher and a 10 percent chance he'd be a one-WAR pitcher. Knowing everything we knew about Quintana, we couldn't really rule out that he'd be on Cy Young ballots, and we couldn't rule out that he'd pitch like a lousy fifth starter.
That is a scale of uncertainty we can handle, though. The headline name the Cubs gave up for Quintana exists in a world of uncertainty that could make or break a franchise. Eloy Jimenez was the 14th-best prospect in baseball coming into the season, according to Baseball America. Carlos Beltran was once the 14th-best prospect in baseball, and he turned into a superstar who might make the Hall of Fame. Drew Henson was once the 14th-best prospect in baseball, and he retired with one major league hit. If the range of Jose Quintana outcomes spans, say, 10 WAR over the final two and a half years of his current contract, the range of Eloy Jimenez outcomes over the next seven years might be 30 or 40 WAR. To declare a winner or loser based on a player who might turn into Carlos Beltran or might turn into Drew Henson — with absolutely no clue yet which — is bold.
This is true even of the non-headline names. When Cleveland traded Jake Westbrook in a three-way deadline deal in 2010, it got back a fringy Double-A pitcher who had a career 4.29 ERA across the Padres' minor league system and was barely even mentioned in the next day's newspaper articles. Four years later, he won the Cy Young Award, and two years after that, he pitched the Indians to Game 7 of the World Series. He's Corey Kluber, he was the best player traded that summer, and it radically altered two franchises.
Of course, none of this means we can't analyze a trade. Better prospects — such as the ones the Yankees got for Chapman — are better than lesser prospects. Diamondbacks fans can be pleasantly surprised that they got Martinez for so little, and Tigers fans can be disappointed that their GM didn't find a more robust market for such an excellent player. But it's never harder than it is in July to call a GM a genius or a fool, and it's never harder to anticipate who we'll say "won" a trade when we look back 10 years from now.
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