NOAA ENSO Model Now Forecasting a Supercalifragilistic El Niño for 2015/16 Season | Watts Up With That?
First: Congratulations to the teeny-tiny 2014/15 El Niño. It's now official. NOAA included it as an "official warm event" on their Oceanic NINO Index this week.
NOAA's CFS.v2 model (dated April 9, 2015, source here) is now forecasting a strong El Niño for this upcoming ENSO season, or as blogger Alec, aka Daffy Duck called it, "a supercalifragilistic el nino" when he brought the forecast to my attention here. See Figure 1. That forecast is noticeably higher than the one that shows up on page 25 of the NOAA weekly ENSO update, which was dated April 4th.
There are a number of aspects that may help in the development of a stronger El Niño this year than last. (1) This year's downwelling Kelvin wave is a little later in the year, so it will be impacting equatorial sea surface temperatures later in the normal ENSO development "season". Keep in mind that El Niño events are normally tied to the seasonal cycle. [See the post Why Do El Niño and La Niña Events Peak in Boreal Winter?] (2) The eastern tropical and equatorial Pacific (surface and subsurface) are warmer this year than last. [See the March 2015 ENSO Update – Will the 2014/15 El Niño Become the 2014/15/16 El Niño?] (3) The downwelling Kelvin wave making its way across the equatorial Pacific is a little weaker than the one last year, but it's still a reasonably strong downwelling Kelvin wave.
But as we saw last year, the development of an El Niño can be suppressed by a lack of westerly wind bursts over the course of the year. Strong westerly wind bursts early in the year only initiate the process. They are needed throughout the rest of the year to strengthen the El Niño. Also, the upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave that should come next can offset the strength and impacts of the existing downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave. So part of the development will depend on the strength and timing of that upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave, too.
For this discussion, we'll refer to NOAA's Oceanic NINO Index again. Of the 20 El Niño events since 1950 that are shown on the ONI index (in red), there are 2 pairs of back-to-back El Niños (the 1957/58 & 1958/59 El Niños, and the 1976/77 & 1977/78 El Niños) and two multiyear El Niños (the 1968/68/69 El Niño, and the 1986/87/88 El Niño). El Niño events normally evolve in one year and decay in the next, so I'm defining multiyear El Niños as those that developed in year one, extended through the second year, and decayed in the third. Bottom line: multiyear and back-to-back El Niños can and do happen. In other words, just in case some alarmists decide to get goofier than normal and try to make a fuss about a multiyear El Niño or back-to-back El Niños, there would be nothing unusual about either type coming to pass this year.
As I noted a number of times last year, we'll just have to watch and see what Mother Nature has in store for us.
April 10, 2015 in ENSO.
If one looks at the monthly data back to the 1950′,you can see El Ninos can turn in the space of 3 months to La Nina conditions.
Thanks, Bob. Very good analysis.
Bob, you tend not to make predictions in your posts, but it would help us who have less knowledge than you (which is most of us, IMHO) if you would prognosticate, guesstimate the odds of this or that ("I would suggest that there is a 35% chance of a back-to-back-to-back El Nino"), or weigh the alternatives ("There is a better chance I believe that there will not be a a back-to-back-to-back El Nino than the chance that there will").
Sorry, Madman2001, I don't make predictions.
Madman2001, Daniel, and Glenn999: See Joe Bastardi's April 10, 2015 at 12:04 pm comment below. He makes predictions.
One of your strengths is educating the rest of us on some pretty arcane, but usually meaningful, stuff.
It's just good clean fun to use your analyses in reasonably calm lunch discussions with equivacating-warmest friends…for example, your comments in this post about multi-year ENSO not being unusual or there being "no rules" about the relative strengths of the multiyear event peaks.
Week in, week out, you demonstrate chunks of this climate stuff yields to good 'ole analysis of actual data (as opposed to model tea-leaf reading). Please keep up the good work…and stay reasonably far away from "forecasting".
The warmer folks will be re-identifying weak La Ninas as El Ninos as we 'progress'.
I'm referring to the WUWT article "Warm Blob in Pacific Ocean". Could a large blob of warm water be taking energy away from the energy needed to form an El Nino?
My thoughts were along the same lines.
Could it be blocking the winds that build up an El Nino?
The California Current should be carrying the warmer-than-normal water from that blob southward. That would tend to enhance the El Nino.
M Courtney, I don't recall seeing any suggestions that the high pressure in the Northeast Pacific is impacting the trade winds or the westerly wind bursts.
It just made sense to me that a large blocking high somewhere in the Pacific could disrupt the winds all round.
But if you know of no evidence then I doubt there is any or will be any.
Forecast shows the cooling south-eastern Pacific. It will be interesting.
They're bound to make a correct prediction one day, and what's the point of predicting similar or lower temperatures if it won't get you any media attention?
Just how many times, and for how many years, have the NOAA forecasters of doom been wrong about El Nino? It's gonna get hot, new records, oceans boiling, send money, yada, yada, yada.
It seems that they have been prediction "the big one" for at least 4 years now.
Please Bob, call it an Autumn or Fall prediction barrier, because that is what it is.
The EN develops on the SOHEM and is thus basically a SOHEM phenomenon till it spreads, The months of FMA The so-called spring barrier months are the southern autumn.
Maybe best to just use the month names. That would eliminate any perceived hemispheric-centrism.
Duster, I will agree. In the future, I'll call it the April-May-June prediction barrier.
Harry, I'm curious as to why you're saying that the EL Nino develops on the Southern Hemisphere. Please understand that I'm not arguing; I'm asking. Is it the Southern Oscillation Index? One can create an index from the sea level pressures in Hawaii and NW tropical Pacific that has a frequency and magnitude that's very similar to the SOI. And NOAA created their equatorial SOI. Or is this a reference to the seasonal cycle in the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific?
These graphs help determine the environment from an atmospheric angular momentum perspective the probability of El Nino versus La Nina.
Negative or tendency toward negative AM (ANGULAR MOMENTUM) favoring La Nina conditions while positive AM or tendency in that direction favoring El Nino conditions.
Right now AM is in La Nina territory.
This info. below being combined with the graphs from the link I sent above to get more data on Angular Momentum versus ENSO.
The graphic above shows the tendency anomalies of the atmospheric angular momentum on the top panel, with the net tendency on the bottom panel. Notice how we're currently recovering from a massive +AAM tendency spike, and are now in a net negative AAM tendency. The cause of this tendency is not the thing we will analyze; right now, we are noting that we're in a +AAM state with -AAM tendencies.
This fits well into the four stage descriptions of the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), which takes those above graphics and makes them into useful data. Here's the descriptions of all four stages of the GWO; pay careful attention to the first and last sentences of each stage.
The four primary phases of the GWO are described below, along with generally cold season (November-March) probable weather impacts for the USA. The GWO recurrence interval, or "time it takes to make a circuit", ranges from a broad 15-80 days. Two of the stages project strongly on El Nino and La Nina circulation states, which are also characterized by positive (Stage 3) and negative (Stage 1) global AAM anomalies, respectively. Stages 2 and 4 are transitional.
Stage 1 (La-Nina like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is negative. The negative anomaly is primarily due to easterly upper level wind anomalies that extend from the Eastern Hemisphere tropics to the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A retracted Pacific Ocean jet stream is a key feature in the total field. Troughs are probable across the western USA with a ridge over the southeast. High impact weather is favored across the Plains.
Stage 2 – the global relative AAM tendency is positive. This means that negative AAM is being removed from the atmosphere by surface friction and mountains. At the same time, westerly wind anomalies are intensifying in equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. Fast Rossby wave dispersion events in both hemispheres are a coherent feature of this stage and Stage 4. A cold regime is probable across the central USA.
Stage 3 (El-Nino like) – the global relative AAM anomaly is positive. Westerly wind anomalies move into the Eastern Hemisphere, broaden in latitudinal extent and link up with deep westerly flow anomalies over the mid-latitude Western Hemisphere. An extended Pacific Ocean jet stream and southward shifted storm track is observed favoring high impact weather events along the USA west coast.
Stage 4 – the global relative AAM tendency is negative. Positive (westerly) AAM anomalies are being removed by surface friction in the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes and through mountain torques across the Northern Hemisphere topography. The next phase of the oscillation (if there is one) is represented by easterly wind anomalies intensifying over equatorial regions of the Western Hemisphere. This stage has enhanced subtropical jets and closed lows in the subtropics favoring rainfall events over the southwestern USA.
What did you notice in each stage description? Did you notice how each description began with details on how the net (global relative) AAM or AAM tendency was positive or negative? Let's apply that here.
We saw earlier how we are in a +AAM / -AAM tendency phase right now. Using those particular sentences in each description, it appears we're in Stage 3 or Stage 4 of the Global Wind Oscillation. Let's investigate each description closer. In Stage 3, among other details, the Pacific jet stream is extended (can stretch across the Pacific), and active weather impacts the West US. In Stage 4, the subtropical jet stream is strengthened, and closed lows in the subtropics can permit heavy rainfall over the Southwest.
What's AAM? It can't be anomalous angular momentum since you refer to "AAM anomaly" twice.
I agree Rick, not everyone knows all the acronyms so the terms with the acronym in parentheses is often a big help and makes the article or comment more valuable to many.
Solar EUV is approaching a minimum. Strong Solar EUV , via Walker Cells, drives westerly winds. There will be very weak Solar EUV.
No predictions, form your own opinion.
My post at 8:00am was from the web-site the Weather Centre. They use AM as a forecasting tool.
One has to be predicting an El Nino to develop based on the equatorial temperatures in the 100 metre deep Pacific Equatorial Under-current. The +4.0C and +5.0C above-normal water will start surfacing in the next few weeks and then one can see if the atmosphere partners in the ENSO either enhance it further or dampen it.
Average temp anomaly in the top 300 metres.
Basically agree, but this warm water is forming the wrong place. It is supposed to be further west in the "warm pool" which is currently anomalously cold, ready to reflect back with the next reaction wave. This may be something akin to the "Chen and Tung" effect where super saline solar warmed and evaporated water just sinks a bit from haline density.
While anomaly makes some sense in the atmosphere by dampening diurnal and seasonal variation to something manageable, to my mind more is lost than gained using anomaly in the ocean. What will explain ocean density and vertical movement is absolute temperature and salinity, not anomaly.
To my eye the NH trades currently hark from some zonal energy that does not involve shear along the coast of North America but shear along the equator, while the source of the energy for the SH trades is strikingly meridional with lots of shear along the coast of South America and little along the equator.
How this plays to the fate of your central Pacific warm pool will be very interesting.
in the opposite direction to the predicted ocean temperatures.
That's right NOAA show NINO 3/4 rising as sea temperatures are falling.
So there will be reports of 2C global temperature anomaly as delegates arrive in Paris for " the big one " , the ultimate game- changing , economy- destroying , Gore- enriching climate change summit. Oh dear, bit of a nuisance that.
Gore-enrichiching? Well, since Gore made the vast majority of his money off of Apple stock and the sale of Current TV, what specific investments are you referring to?
Watch and see what Mother Nature has in store for us! Are you insane? 97% of all scientists know that reality doesn't matter, if it's not a computer model it doesn't count. Models uber alles!
When did the alarmists start to get interested in El Ninos? I thought their whole schtick was that CO2 drove climate conditions. The next thing you know they'll start to look at solar variability, cosmic rays, clouds and all sorts of other variables that affect climate. Finally, they'll have to admit that CO2 wasn't that important after all. Welcome to the real world (sarc).
Their dilemma is that whatever they dictate causes climate to change, it has to be anthropological in nature and support the current swing toward world governance of energy resources. It may take some time to adjust the paradigm to include the facts and still retain the illusion of humanity's guilt.
When did the alarmists start to get interested in El Ninos?
Two giants of 20th-century meteorology, Gilbert Walker and Jacob Bjerknes, are usually given credit for discovering the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. During the early 1920s, Walker empirically identified a periodic variation in atmospheric pressure over the Indo-Pacific which he christened the "Southern Oscillation." During the 1960s, Bjerknes posited a physical mechanism to explain the atmospheric features of this phenomenon over the equatorial Pacific which he christened the "Walker Circulation." Both men deserve recognition since they opened the way for our present understanding of the global climate system.
I thought their whole schtick was that CO2 drove climate conditions.
Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.
That's not an atypical abstract.
The next thing you know they'll start to look at solar variability, cosmic rays, clouds and all sorts of other variables that affect climate.
By reflecting solar radiation back to space (the albedo effect of clouds) and by trapping infrared radiation emitted by the surface and the lower troposphere (the greenhouse effect of clouds), clouds exert two competing effects on the Earth's radiation budget. These two effects are usually referred to as the SW and LW components of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The balance between these two components depends on many factors, including macrophysical and microphysical cloud properties. In the current climate, clouds exert a cooling effect on climate (the global mean CRF is negative). In response to global warming, the cooling effect of clouds on climate might be enhanced or weakened, thereby producing a radiative feedback to climate warming (Randall et al., 2006; NRC, 2003; Zhang, 2004; Stephens, 2005; Bony et al., 2006).
Yes, the Sun. As well, many other factors far more obvious than cosmic rays. It's almost as if you're not the only person thinking about this stuff.
Finally, they'll have to admit that CO2 wasn't that important after all.
Odd conclusion considering that these so-called "alarmists" are the ones mainly responsible for what little you apparently know of them or their research.
You forgot human induced post climate change?
That's quite an amazing assertion, isn't it?
Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability.
But that's all it is: an assertion. It's pretty much a baseless asserrtion, since the climate Null Hypothesis has never been falsified: nothing we observe now is either unusual, or unprecedented. All current climate parameters have been exceeded in the past, before human CO2 was a factor.
The truth is that we have been blessed with a real 'Goldilocks' climate for the past century. There is no credible evidence that human CO2 emissions have had any negative effect at all. The only real evidence we have shows that the rise in CO2 has been an unmitigated benefit to the biosphere. All the scare talk about runaway global warming has been debunked by Planet Earth herself.
The authors completely disregard reality. They disregard all contrary facts and evidence. Because if they told the truth – that nothing abnormal is occurring – they probably would not be able to parlay their paper into grant loot.
Government grant money has thoroughly corrupted science: Scientists have been trained with grant money like Pavlov's dogs were trained with dog biscuits.
You're killin' me here, son.
Most "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere (especially CO2) are NOT "well-mixed", so even if the above curve showing the influence of "well-mixed" greenhouse gases were even remotely correct (which it is not), it wouldn't be relevant anyway. Even H2O, the most abundant and most important "greenhouse gas" in the atmosphere is far from "well-mixed".
So basically, there are 2 MAJOR flaws with the whole AGW theory. Flaw #1, CO2 is more important than H2O (no) and Flaw #2, greenhouse gases are well-mixed in the atmosphere (no).
Unless of course they start propagandising about a made-up (read: fantasist) link between CO2 emissions and El Nino behaviour…???? You know the cultists are capable of saying anything.
A CO2 —> El Nino link is non-obvious to me, but then so are the workings of any ocean/atmospheric coupling. It's a fiendishly complex system and I would not presume to know fantasy from fact by my own lay reasoning about it. For that I must turn to experts with specific training to the problem domain in question, and where I prefer to go first for that is to peer-reviewed primary literature. Speculating that prestige for-profit journals are part of some cult is the thing which smacks of propaganda to my eyes. YMMV.
How can a physicist not comprehend that it is atmospheric CO2 that is the principal radiative forcing agent for the ongoing global warming? . . . and not be concerned that water vapor, as the climate system's principal feedback agent, has an exponential dependence on temperature?
To be sure, there are other factors that contribute to climate change. But decades of measurements and analysis have shown that variations in solar irradiance, land use, aerosols, ozone, and other minor greenhouse gases, while making a contribution, are small by comparison to CO2.
Of greater interest is the "unforced" variability of the climate system on decadal time scales that arises from changes in ocean circulation patterns that are effectively un-influenced by changes in atmospheric radiative forcing. The deep ocean is a very large cold storage reservoir. An upwelling blob of cold ocean water can put a "pause" in the ongoing global warming, temporarily diverting the greenhouse "heat" to warming the ocean. But once that cold blob of ocean water has been warmed up to its equilibrium temperature, it is back to the business of continued global warming. And also note that the ocean cannot cause a decadal warming spurt – the deep ocean is colder than the surface biosphere, so it cannot be a source of heat.
Significantly, the key climate system components (water vapor, clouds, ocean) are not configured to respond to radiative and/or temperature perturbations on a sufficiently small enough incremental scale that would permit a monotonic approach to global energy balance equilibrium. Instead, there is always over-reaction such as when water vapor condenses en mass to produce storms, coupled with the similarly over-reactive responses by atmospheric and ocean dynamics to pressure-temperature and salinity differences, to produce the quasi-chaotic weather and the longer-term climate noise that characterizes the climate system.
Physicists should not be confused by these random-looking quasi-chaotic fluctuations about the local climate equilibrium point, and should instead focus more on the changing energy balance equilibrium point of the climate system. They should also pay attention to the geological record that points to an atmospheric CO2 level of 450 ppm as being incompatible with polar ice caps, a level that is expected to be reached by the end of this century. While it may take a thousand years for the polar ice to melt, the future course is being prepared for a 70 meter rise in sea level.
That is only part of his comment. It is one of the more succinct yet comprehensive summaries of the "problem" of internal variability I have ever read.
They should pay more attention to the geographical record that points to a detached Antarctica, a northerly Greenland and an open Isthmus of Panama as being incompatible with ice-free poles. Cart before the horse.
Let's try this the easy way: the reason you know about those things is because nobody paid attention to them.
Interesting graphs. Don't forget this is not actual heat energy it is an "anomaly" from a four dimensional average condition. ( long,lat, depth,time).
The vertical cross-section is misleading because it does not show one of those dimensions. It does not account for N/S movement of water.
That is where the real heat anomalies come from. The equatorial anomalies come from a depression of the thermocline. The warmer surface water is lowered and appears as a warm anomaly. Much of what this plot shows is vertical displacement anomaly not an increase of heat energy.
Looking at the second graph, we see two bands at 40N and 40S and a third around the equator. I think much of this pattern is long term tidal effects.
I think it is Clarke that did a paper on thermocline movement but he did not make the tidal link.
On that cross section, how can so much temperature rise happen in just a few days, given that it is shown to be at depth and not particularly connected to the sunlit surface?
I was hoping, Mike, that you provided a reasonable answer, but then Bill Illis disagreed.
So, where is the energy coming from?
There is no North-South movement at the equator – until the water flow runs up against a continental shelf.
One should think of this cross-section as showing water at the surface moving east to west as it dragged along by the east-to-west trade winds.
It then travels in the equatorial under-current (the Cromwell Current) at 100-150 metres depth back across the Pacific to the east. It then surfaces at Galapagos Island and the loop is complete.
The majority of the water in the equatorial Pacific is just recirculating in one long continuous loop.
Some of course is exiting the system through the Indonesian Flow-through and some is going into the North Pacific Gyre in the Kuroshio current. And then some is entering the loop pattern from the Humbolt current along the South American coast, and some is entering from the Tehuantepec upwells next to central America (but noone is really certain how this works here).
The whole ocean is full of these types of surface currents and under-water counter-currents going in the opposite directions and then just 8 degrees away latitude, all the currents now flow the same way but in the opposite directions again.
If the ocean water is moving, wherever it is going, some other water has to be moving away to make way for it. And wherever the water is coming from, some other water is moving in to take its place. Its all just circulating in short-term continuous loops and/or long-term continuous loops taking years or decades or centuries. The equatorial Pacific is actually the easiest place on the planet to understand as it a short-term one and not that complicated and it has great monitoring systems.
The Eastern Pacific Blob vs. El Nino in the meteorological grudge match of the year!
until then, would someone wake me up when a real El Nino gets here? i'd hate to drown in my sleep.
The thing is that water is drawn to the equator and thus depresses the thermocline. This shows as a warm "anomaly" in the vertical section.
Frankly, this el niño is not only supercalifragilistic, it's supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.
Thanks Bob. I notice a "cold" spot west of the Kelvin wave. Isn't this supposed to be the source region for future warm water that would move eastward with westerly bursts?
R2Dtoo, yes, there are below-normal subsurface temperature anomalies in the western tropical Pacific. Phrased differently, yes, they're showing that there is presently less warm water than normal to supply El NIno development. Two things to keep in mind. (1) Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are already elevated. And (2) El Nino events rely on the temperature difference (absolute) between the western tropical Pacific (warmer) and the eastern tropical Pacific (cooler). The below-normal subsurface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific we're seeing now wouldn't prevent an El Nino. It just has less fuel for development.
We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Despite the forecast for below-average activity, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Information obtained through March 2015 indicates that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have much less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 2015 will have only 3 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 7 named storms (median is 12.0), 30 named storm days (median is 60.1), 10 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (median is 2.0) and 0.5 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2015 to be approximately 45 percent of their long-term averages.
Great weekly video this week on weatherbell.com.
"Australia will face fiercer El Nino weather patterns – causing severe drought – as a result of human-induced global warming, world-first research led by Sydney scientists has shown.
While the El Nino cycles typically trigger drought in the eastern states, so-called super El Ninos – such as those in 1982 and 1997 – have been detected since the mid-1970s.
"Recently speculation has been rife that the end of 2014 will see an El Niño event — the change in Pacific ocean and atmosphere circulation that is known to produce drought, extreme heat, and fire in Australia.
"Climate scientists are monitoring this with amazement," said Cai Wenju, a principal CSIRO research scientist who has published widely on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern.
Handjive.. thanks for a little comic relief.
There has been a less than expected response by the atmosphere to the oceanic, surface warmth in the Pacific. In fact, the atmosphere over the US this past Winter, acted like it thought we were in a La Nina.
The huge, surprising spike higher in the PDO over the last year, may have peaked in December 2014(2.5) but at +1.5 in March, is still high. Surprising, because it's coming during a -PDO phase(which is either ending prematurely or doing like the late 1950's and spiking higher, then going back to a -PDO regime for another 15 years or so).
The only other time we saw +PDO index values this high was in 1997/98 in tandem with the Great El Nino.
Maybe the AMO signal has been more powerful than the PDO recently for US weather.
. " The only other time we saw +PDO index values this high was in 1997/98 in tandem with the Great El Nino" Not true, Mike .. Check 1940/1941 PDO levels . Pdo up to 3 and lasting much longer. Remember what happened to Europe and Asia winters .
GMST showed no significant warming. With the El Nino confirmed, should we have seen some warming in the record?
That should not be a surprise given the current Pacific Ocean conditions. My outlook from last August on the upcoming winter was that California was going to have a warm winter. It certainly was and that was a nice relief from the previous 3 very cold winters. The change was around +20 F difference.
California has dewatered aquifers, deforested, paved, farmed and otherwise reduced moderating evaporative cooling.
Not to mention NOAAHAHAHA's propensity to produce warming slanted graphs.
Time for those 40 million ingenious people to be ingenious.
sure the curve would be very impressive if nothing elese but climate would have changed in california..
This time last year they were predicting a whopper too. They better watch it or their reputation is going to start looking like UK Met Office winter forecast reliability.
Martin "It sure is hotting up in California " , you said . You should be aware that it is sure freezing up in the rest of the country . Many regions in the North east US and Canada had the coldest February ever.
. Despite all the warm SST in the eastern and central Pacific . North America has been cooling since 1998. CONTIGUOUS US is cooling at a trend of 0.48F/decade SINCE 1998 per NOAA.
How come you cherry picked 1998? Is it because that was a massive record breaking El Nino? I'll cherry pick 10 years later with 2008 and see what the trend is per decade. Ohh looky it's 1.10F/decade!
See comments from one article below.
I posted the information here at this time to bring balance to the discussion about the "heating '"up of California. Their water problem is critical and I am sympathetic to their woes but so are the extra cold temperatures, snow, flooding and tornadoes that sweep over US eastern half because of the extra cold spring winds from the north meeting the warm moist air from the south.
Let's move away from 1997 then. Five years later we get this.
I suspect this might be the last gasp of the current weak El Nino. It has been using the energy stored in the western warm pool over the last year and has not been able to couple to the atmosphere due to warmth in the indian ocean competing for the convective focus. (neg IOD) If the atmosphere does get is act together then we are likely to get a moderate El Nino at the strongest. Super El Nino probably only occur after significant periods of energy accumulation. Cloud decreased by 5% from 1992-2003 and the Super El Nino was the energy dissipation response. A similar shift is believed to have occurred in the late 70s which would time with the 82 super El Nino. El Nino's dissipate energy, they source it from the Western warm pool thermal energy and gravitational potential energy from the water piled up, along with the kinetic energy from slowing wind circulations, plus some initial positive feedbacks such as disruption of convective cooling. Without a atmospheric connection we are likely to regress back two neutral rather than La Nina IMO. If the atmosphere does connect then its game on for the next super La Nina.
Many regions in the North east US and Canada had the coldest February ever.
And yet, the north east is where all the CO2 is produced??
If my computer spit out a graph like the first one on this post, I would immediately start looking for my mistakes.
It's still (boreal) springtime, and ENSO forecasts have a hurdle called the "spring prediction barrier".
What's "boreal springtime" and how does it differ from meteorological spring?
adj. Of or relating to the north; northern.
adj. Of or concerning the north wind.
adj. Of or relating to the forest areas of the northern North Temperate Zone, dominated by coniferous trees such as spruce, fir, and pine.
It seems odd to me to use the northern woods to describe a time period in the tropical Pacific.
As an observation, statistical predictions are generally lower than modelled predictions.
I'm only assuming but, perhaps the models actually incorporate ghg effects. Repetition of reality doesn't.
It is a fact that the solar magnetic cycle has been interrupted. An analogue of what to expect next is the 8200 BP (before present) abrupt cooling event.
The cult of CAWG would most certainly use a El Nino event or a drought or high rainfall or high snowfall or regional cold weather as further proof that we must spend trillions of dollars on green scams that do not work. I am not sure how they could use a significant drop in planetary temperature as further proof of CAGW.
It is a fact there is cyclic significant warming and cooling (sometimes abrupt cooling events) in the paleo record that correlate with solar cycle changes. The sun is the cause of the majority of the cyclic climate change in the paleo record, including the majority of the warming observed in the last 150 years.
If there is a significant drop in planetary temperature, there will need to be a very quick sciency sounding explanation. There will be much hand wringing as it becomes obvious that the entire set of IPCC assertions were incorrect. We then will need to quickly accept the end of CAGW and quickly move on to discuss an unimaginable climate change scenario. We will need to discuss the implications of significant and dangerous abrupt cooling. It appears a Heinrich event will immediately follow the initial Dansgaard-Oschger cooling. If that assertion is correct we need to determine timing, magnitude, and start making changes to mitigate consequences.
There is a miss understanding, a urban myth, that the glacial/interglacial cycle occurs due to tiny forcing changes (summer insolation changes at 65N for example or a stoppage of the North Atlantic drift current) that are serendipitously amplified by a smart amplification mechanism that appears when required to end and start interglacial periods and then serendipitously disappears to avoid creating large, abrupt planetary temperature oscillations when there is a short term major forcing change such as super volcano eruption. Ridiculous urban legends are accepted as it difficult to even contemplate the possibility that the sun and the stars are fundamentally different than assumed.
The 8200 BP event was not caused by a stoppage or a slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current. The assertion that a stoppage or slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current could cause the a significant drop in winter temperatures in Europe and in the Greenland Ice sheet is an urban myth.
The 8200 B.P. event, "lasted four hundred years (6400-6000 B.C.) and, like the Younger Dryas, generated abrupt aridification and cooling in the North Atlantic and North America, Africa, and Asia (Alley et al. 1997; Barber et al. 1999; Hu et al. 1999; Street-Perrot and Perrot 1990).
An answer to the long-standing riddle of whether the Earth's ice ages occurred simultaneously in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres is emerging from the glacial deposits found in the high desert east of the Andes.
Because the Earth is oriented in space in such a way that the hemispheres are out of phase in terms of the amount of solar radiation they receive, it is surprising to find that the climate in the Southern Hemisphere cooled off repeatedly during a period when it received its largest dose of solar radiation," says Singer. "Moreover, this rapid synchronization of atmospheric temperature between the polar hemispheres appears to have occurred during both of the last major ice ages that gripped the Earth.
In the south of the jet stream in winter descends farther north Pacific and warm air mass pushes further north. In the south, also starts strong inhibition of the polar vortex, because the magnetic activity of the sun falling.
Sorry, I need more coffee before I can even begin to decipher that sentence structure.
ren's English is probably a lot better than my Polish.
You keep saying this but what evidence do you have? Looks to me like the pole switch was a little more drawn out than the other three we have data for but now seems to be proceeding normally. Sure, Cycle 25 looks like it'll be weak but even that isn't a done deal yet.
In the context of drawn out Cycle 23 are you suggesting it isn't? Where is this "interruption"?
Why not 1997? Not that we're talking about the solar magnetic cycle being interrupted. Perhaps William meant geomagnetic but where is the Ap Index for 8200 BP?
This El Niño is going to turn out to be quite atrocious for them.
I observed about a month ago (?) BOM model selection was predicting a 1.5C event.
Shouldn't such hard to spot El Niños be called "El Ninjas"?
I have tried to find an email address for you, but in vain. You can get my address from Anthony, I am sure, so please send it through him, so we can discuss the SO privately.
If it stop rain here shorty after one month El Nenos forecast get stronger.
The continuation of the minimal El Nino and the beginnings of a new potentially stronger El Nino is already leaving its signature in the Out-Going Long-Wave at equator, International Dateline area.
This is really how the ENSO impacts temperatures on a regional, tropical and global scale. There is large continuous convection storms here now and the clouds themselves, holds in all that energy coming off of all that hot water at the equator.
The energy does not get to escape to space as readily as it normally does and this extra energy held in spreads to the rest of the world in a month or two. It takes 1 to 2 months for the large increase in tropical storm activity to develop and then one to two months for the extra heat held-in to spread to the rest of the world. This is the formula for why there is a three month lag from the ENSO to where it starts to impact tropical and global temperature. It is the explanation for why there is a lag.
This chart shows what is going on in this very special region on the planet which is somewhat like the planet's thermostat but more like the ENSO's thermostat impacting the rest of the planet.
The changes in Out-Going Long-Wave here are truly massive. +/- 50 W/m2 which completely dwarfs the variability that any other place on the planet has by almost an order of magnitude.
When it is "Yellow", this means more OLR is gettting out to space than normal and the planet is cooling off slightly. When it is "Blue" less energy is escaping and the planet is heating up.
Right now, we are very strongly into the Blue, some -50 W/m2 time-periods are showing up and global temperatures are now going to be going up fast.
The El Nino is already starting to have an impact which will be apparent shortly.
Bill in a word you are wrong.
What will determine the strength or lack of strength of El Nino is the SOI INDEX values which are related to the pressure differences between Tahiti, and Darwin Australia, which are related to the amounts of warm water around Australia. The warmer the water is around Australia, the lower the pressure will be at Darwin , in contrast to Tahiti ,which equates to a more positive SOI INDEX which is not supportive of El Nino being sustained much less a strong El Nino.
As of today warm water anomalies rather then cold water anomalies are present around Australia.
Another indicator is angular momentum which is neutral at best. Positive values or heading positive =El Nino, more likely. Negative angular momentum values or heading toward negative values = La Nina, more likely.
To boot recent OLR values increasing in said area Bill references.
According to Bill a big El Nino should have followed approximately 3 months later the extreme -OLR period from Jan 2010-Apr.2010. I see La Nina instead.
The 2009-10 El Nino peaked at +1.9C in the week of December 23, 2009, and the negative OLR values followed in the few months later just like I said.
Nice graph above, I have never seen that particular one before. Note well who you are talking to in respect to how he answers you.
I should have said more accurately El Nino heading to neutrality for the three months following -OLR period Jan- Apr. 2010 ,followed by a strong La Nina some 9 months later.
Bill , the way I read it you said originally that El Nino is in response to -OLR and not the other way around.
Here is what you said originally.
Then you say this which is opposite to what you said in the above. Lag versus followed. Which one is it?
Maybe I read it wrong now that I have read many times. Maybe you were trying to say the lag between an ENSO event and the effects from this ENSO event takes two to three months, due to -OLR , and hence tropical storm development/heat spread.
If so I understand the point you were trying to make and I say time will tell.
Yes, the -OLR values lag behind the Nno 3.4 Index (in an El Nino). The large +OLR values lag behind a La Nina.
This area is also important because the heat distribution from the equatorial region to the poles is very strong here and many of the systems move directly north (or directly south) from this important region and then catch the mid-latitude winds now going west-to-east which mean the west coast of North America and the area from Alaska to Minnesota are the regions second most impacted by the what is happening with the storm systems here.
The most impacted region is Indonesia and Australia (because the most important winds are the trade winds which move the majority of the systems at the equator from east-to-west). When there are large convection storms at the International Dateline area (like now in an El Nino), the moisture rains out here and Indonesia and Australia get much reduced rainfall. The opposite happens in a La Nina.
The 77-77 one did not break the bad 70s drought but the following 77-78 one did. Hoping for a repeat.


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Fresh Music Friday: Listen to Groves.
Groves is a three piece band based in Los Angeles, California.
Currently on tour as an opener with Boy George and the Culture Club, Groves is Stephen Salisbury (Vocals/Guitar), Reid Guidry (Bass), and Will Smith (Drums). The basic indie-rock flavor is carried by Salisbury's tender, tenor vocals which take the band from basic, everyday indie-rock to something a little more special.
While the crowd at the New York State Fair's Chevy Court were ready to re-live their glory days with the late to the stage, Madonna wannabe, Boy George & The Culture Club, most of the 50-plus crowd looked confused by what would probably be a better fit for Good Charlotte or Ra Ra Riot fans.
Despite Salisbury attempting to win favor by wearing a Syracuse sweatshirt, the less than warm Syracuse welcome was met with a strong Groves performance that soared over the heads of most of the 30,000-plus audience at Chevy Court.
Your college, and high school aged sons and daughters will have these guys on repeat in no time. Meanwhile, try something other than what you listened to in high school and college for a change. Groves is a great starting point.
Fresh Music Friday is designed to widen your musical horizons, and to give a taste of different artists and musical styles to explore. While some of the artists featured here may not be "new," they promise to freshen your catalog of music.


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Legacy Contribution Page
Donate by cheque
THE ELIZABETH BISHOP LEGACY RECORDING
"I Am In Need of Music" is Now Available!
New settings of Elizabeth Bishop poems, created for her one hundredth birthday by a stellar band of Canadian composers!
CD purchase: CentreDisc, ArkivMusic
mp3 album: Amazon
iTunes ____________________________________________
A heart-felt "Thank You!" to everyone who helped us to record the new settings of Elizabeth Bishop poems, created for her centenary by a stellar band of Canadian composers! Your generosity allowed us to supply $37, 851 towards the $60, 000 cost of this project!
Our Donor Honour Roll
We're on a roll!
Help us get from our current $37,851 to our goal of $60,000!
Make your contribution via PayPal by clicking the "Donate" button below
Prefer to contribute by cheque? Click here.
And now here is SUZIE LEBLANC to say a few words about our project --
"Home-made, home-made! But aren't we all?"
(from "Crusoe in England," by Elizabeth Bishop)
The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia is thrilled to be collaborating with internationally renowned soprano Suzie LeBlanc, the sparkling Blue Engine String Quartet, the remarkable conductor/composer/musician Dinuk Wijeratne, and a stellar list of Canadian composers — Christos Hatzis, Alasdair MacLean, Emily Doolittle, and John Plant — in the creation of the Elizabeth Bishop Legacy recording. This recording will comprise new works (see repertoire below), settings of Elizabeth Bishop poems, which were commissioned, created and premiered for the Elizabeth Bishop Centenary (EB100) celebrations in Nova Scotia in 2011. Some of the pieces were performed with Symphony Nova Scotia, conducted by Maestro Bernhard Gueller, on 10 February 2011, as the first event of EB100. Others were premiered at a gala concert on 2 October 2011, in Great Village, N.S., the culmination of the year-long festival. The technical production for our Legacy Project is in the capable hands of producer John Adams [Stonehouse Sound] and Rod Sneddon, recording engineer. None of this can happen though, without your help!
THE REPERTOIRE
Christos Hatzis – "Four songs"
(1) "I am in Need of Music"
(2) "Insomnia"
(3) "The Unbeliever"
(4) "Anaphora"
Alasdair MacLean –
(5) "The Silken Water is Weaving and Weaving" -- instrumental
(6) "Dear, My Compass"
(7) "Close, Close All Night"
(8) "Breakfast Song"
Emily Doolittle –
(9) "A Short Slow Life"
John Plant –
(10) "Sunday 4 A.M."
(11) "Sandpiper"
A PERSONAL MESSAGE FROM SUZIE LEBLANC
I found a leaflet on Elizabeth Bishop in the basement of St. James' Church in Great Village, Nove Scotia, while on tour. I wanted to know more about her and sought a book of her poems in the library a few weeks later. I first read "The Map" and was intrigued by Bishop's sense of observation. She seemed to be able to see the reverse of things, the X-ray version or the negative as in photography, what most of us don't see, or hear.
A few months later, I was sitting in the Ouro Preto Café in Halifax, talking with Sandra Barry, herself a poet and one of the owners of the Elizabeth Bishop House in Great Village. Together, we decided to create a Centenary Festival to honour her and also to reclaim her as a Canadian poet. Bishop herself said: "I am ¾ Canadian and ¼ New Englander". She spent a large part of her youth living in Great Village, where she began primary school, and returned to Nova Scotia as an adult, on holiday. Many of her more famous poems are connected to this land and its people: her mother land.
Thank you for your generosity in making this legacy project come to life so that Bishop can continue to inspire and change people's appreciation of life and art, as she has for me.
HOW WILL YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS BE USED?
The funds will cover the musician's fees, the producer and engineer's fees, post production cost and basic administration costs of the project. If we should exceed our goal, any further money received will be applied to other Elizabeth Bishop Legacy Projects. We will report weekly in a special post to the Elizabeth Bishop Centenary Blog on the progress of our campaign, which is scheduled to conclude on September 30, 2012.
SOME BACKGROUND
Who is Elizabeth Bishop?
Elizabeth Bishop as a Child
Elizabeth Bishop was a Pulitzer Prize-winning poet who was born in Worcester, Massachusetts, on February 8, 1911. Her mother was from Great Village, Nova Scotia, and Elizabeth spent a significant part of her childhood and adolescence there. Her childhood experiences in Canada left indelible marks on her life and art. Many of her most beloved poems and stories are set in Great Village.
Elizabeth Bishop at Balmoral Grist Mill, Nova Scotia, 1972
What is Elizabeth Bishop's Legacy?
Elizabeth Bishop's poems and stories have been translated into many languages. Her poetry is taught in schools and universities across the globe. Dozens of books have been written about her. Plays and films have depicted her life and work. Interest in every aspect of her art continues to intensify. Why? Because she wrote some of the most important, beautiful, moving poetry of the twentieth century. An Elizabeth Bishop poem can change your life.
Elizabeth Bishop herself loved music of all genres. As a young woman she studied piano. A clavichord accompanied her on her many moves. She aspired to write song lyrics, and when living in Brazil, translated and wrote sambas for Carnival. She attended the premiere of famed American composer Elliott Carter's settings of her poems, so she knew and approved of this kind of treatment of her work. The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia believes that Bishop would have loved the music created under her inspiration by these amazing Canadian composers.
What is the Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia?
The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia was formed in 1994. Its mandate is to celebrate the life and art of Elizabeth Bishop and to educate Nova Scotians and the world about her enduring connection to Nova Scotia. The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia is a registered Canadian charitable society, which holds events and engages in projects that advance this mandate.
What was the Elizabeth Bishop Centenary (EB100)?
February 8, 2011, marked the centenary of Elizabeth Bishop's birth. Artists, scholars and readers around the world celebrated this anniversary with readings, lectures, exhibitions, conferences, concerts and festivals. Under the auspices of the Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia and the Elizabeth Bishop Centenary Festival Committee, Nova Scotia was in the forefront of these celebrations. Communities across the province, dozens of artists from a wide range of disciplines, hundreds of volunteers, and thousands of participants of all ages, with the generous support and cooperation of local, provincial and national governmental funding agencies, created a year-long extravaganza unprecedented in the history of Canadian poetry. Much of this activity involved exciting and innovative collaboration between and among artists and local communities.
What did EB100 give us?
One of the most exciting things about EB100 in Nova Scotia was the incredible amount of new work created by a wide range of artists in tribute to, and in honour of, Elizabeth Bishop: writing, painting, photography, film and music. Unquestionably, though, it was the new music inspired by her poetry and created by the renowned Canadian composers participating in this Legacy Project which has been one of the most significant achievements of the celebrations in Nova Scotia. The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia is committed to helping create a permanent recording of this beautiful, exciting, inspiring music.
PLEASE HELP US MAKE THIS DREAM COME TRUE!
We would like to thank film-maker Dawn Harwood Jones for her work on Suzie's video, and photographers Jonna Datz and Travis Malay for their contribution of images to it.
Suzie LeBlanc and the Elizabeth Bishop Legacy Recording is a sponsored project of The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia, a charitable arts organization in Nova Scotia. Contributions by cheque for the purposes of this recording should be made payable to the Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia., and may be sent to
The Elizabeth Bishop Society of Nova Scotia
Great Village, Nova Scotia B0M 1L0
For Canadian contributors, tax receipts will be issued if requested for part of each contribution $50 or above, to the extent permitted by law. Full name and mailing address are required in order to receive a thank you gift (and/or a Canadian tax receipt, if you would like one.)
Posted by John A. Barnstead at 7:37 AM
THE ELIZABETH BISHOP LEGACY RECORDING _________...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


We strive to provide you with a delicious, healthy light breakfast and hearty lunch for each session day. We will also provide beverages. We ask YOU, however, to bring a re-usable water bottle/container and fill up during the day from the water supplied by our host or from extra water you brought with you.
We will not be providing plastic water bottles to use during the day.
I am allergic to certain foods listed in next question.
What "other" food or beverage are you allergic to?


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HomeRecent NewsBellevue College Model UN Back from France
Bellevue College Model UN Back from France
February 7, 2012 Ana Palma-Gutierrez Recent News 0
Left to right: Monica Mendoza, Auric Kaur, James Gan, Professor Khan, Chloe Brown, Ana Palma, and Michelle Fredrickson. Photo courtesy of Chloe Brown
From Jan. 30 to Feb. 6, 2012, six of Bellevue College's students travelled to France for the annual National Model United Nations-Europe (NMUN-EU) Conference, the second most challenging NMUN conference in the world. The conference was hosted in Lille France by the university of Sciences Po Lille, and was held at Lille's very own Conseil Regional (Regional Council Building) where regional politicians and diplomats meet.
The Model United Nations (MUN) Program is a simulation of the United Nations. Delegates from all over the world meet at conferences in order to discuss world issues. Every school is assigned a country and given a committee with different topics relevant to the world today. The students then have to represent their country to the best of their ability with regard to the issues under discussion.
Students enrolled at BC's MUN Program were able to apply for the NMUN-EU conference, and only six were selected by Professor Tim Jones, Chair of the Political Science Department, and Aslam Khan, Advisor for the Model United Nations Program. Each student was asked to write a page essay explaining why he or she was interested in attending the conference, in addition to sharing both personal and academic successes.
The selected students also showed involvement both on campus and the community, as well as excellent knowledge in world politics and economics. Ana Palma-Gutierrez, Auric Kaur, Chloe Brown, James Gan, Michelle Fredrickson, and Monica Mendoza were the selected students to represent Bellevue College at the second most challenging NMUN conference in the world.
For this particular conference, the Bellevue College Delegation represented the Republic of Cuba, and students paired up in three different committees; the European Union and Latin America and Caribbean Summit (EU-LAC,) Rio+20, and the General Assembly. In the process of four days, the Bellevue College delegation managed to win second place in the top ten schools at the conference, and received the Distinguished Delegation Award. In addition, Delegates Kaur and Brown were recognized in their committee (Rio + 20) as the delegation that best represented the Conference on Sustainable Development.
"I am extremely proud of the fact that my students won an award this year. It is my first year as an adviser for the BC MUN program and I have been blessed with a great group of students this year," said Tim Jones, Chair of the Political Science Department.
Although the rest of the delegates did not win any particular awards or recognitions, all EU-LAC Working Papers sponsored by Delegates Fredrickson and Palma-Gutierrez were passed into Resolution Papers and created into laws. In addition, Delegates Gan and Mendoza managed to write a successful Working Paper for the General Assembly.
The participating students expressed to have gained valuable experiences at the conference, and everyday brought new and rewarding tasks. However like any other participant of NMUN-EU, the Bellevue College Delegation had to battle through long working days and nights. The Model United Nations is a very rigorous program, students need to be highly committed and dedicated in order to have the best experience in any NMUN conference.
"We were pretty busy – I'd say our average hours of sleep per night were around three, maybe three and a half. The conference was the big event of the trip and the experience – it was exhausting, exhilarating, and absolutely amazing," said Michelle Fredrickson, EU-LAC Summit Delegate.
In addition to attending the conference in Lille, the six BC students had the opportunity of visiting some of France's most famous places, including Le Louvre, Notre Dame and the Eiffel Tower. In addition, all participants of this year's NMUN-EU had the opportunity of visiting Brussels, Belgium where they got a chance to visit the European Parliament, the German Embassy, as well as interacting with diplomats and governors from both the EU and the U.S.
With the experiences gained in France and Belgium, the Delegates feel more than ready to represent Bellevue College once more at this year's NMUN-New York Conference, where they will be joined by the rest of their peers in their MUN class. From April 3-7, all 23 students will be representing the Republic of Cuba at the most challenging NMUN conference in the world.
About Ana Palma-Gutierrez	29 Articles
My name is Ana Palma-Gutierrez, and I am from Mexico City. I first moved to the U.S. when I was seven years old, and the transition into my new life was a very challenging experience for me. I had to learn English in order for me to survive in my new home, and in addition, I had to leave all my friends and family behind in order for me to find a better life. Almost thirteen years have passed by since I first moved to the U.S. and I am very proud of being a Staff Writer and Copy Editor for The Jibsheet. Currently, I am the only Mexican/Hispanic Staff Writer and Copy Editor on staff, and I am very proud of myself for this accomplishment. I want to thank my Editor in Chief (Riley Hartwell,) as well as the rest of my editors for giving me the opportunity of writing and editing for The Jibsheet. I look forward to completing my Arts and Science Degree here at Bellevue College, and transferring onto a four-year college, where I hope to Major in Political Science and Minor in Journalism.


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SBA.gov » About SBA » SBA Newsroom » Press Releases & Media Advisories » SBA accepting nominations for National and District Small Business Week awards
SBA accepting nominations for National and District Small Business Week awards
Nina Ramon | nina.ramon@sba.gov
SAN ANTONIO – The U.S. Small Business Administration is now accepting nominations for its 2019 National and District Small Business Week Awards, including the annual Small Business Person of the Year.
"These awards are our salute to the spirit of entrepreneurship within our district and the nation," said Laketa Henderson, SBA Deputy District Director. "Small businesses contribute significantly to their local communities and National Small Business Week events celebrate their perseverance, innovation, and achievements."
SBA Awards given in celebration of National Small Business Week on May 5-11, 2019 include the following:
Small Business Exporter of the Year
Phoenix Awards for Disaster Recovery
Federal Procurement Awards
All nominations for the national award categories must be submitted no later than 2 p.m. CST, Jan. 9, 2019. National award category information can be found at www.sba.gov/nsbw/awards.
In addition to these National Small Business Week awards, the SBA's San Antonio District Office will be presenting district specific awards in several categories. They include:
Entrepreneur Success Award
Young Entrepreneur of the Year
Family-Owned Business of the Year
Encore Entrepreneur of the Year
Minority Small Business of the Year
Veteran Small Business of the Year
Women-Owned Business of the Year
Home-Based Business Champion of the Year
Financial Services Champion of the Year
Small Business Media Advocate of the Year
All nominations for the district award categories must be submitted no later than 3 p.m. CDT, February 13, 2019. More information about the district award categories can be found at http://bit.ly/SA_NSBW19
All nomination packages must be hand delivered or mailed to the nearest SBA Office. Email submissions of SBA Awards forms will not be accepted as they contain personally identifiable information (PII).
For questions contact Nina Ramon at the San Antonio District Office at (210) 403-5900 or at nina.ramon@sba.gov


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Today is a very important day, December 1st represents world AIDS day today. An important day to raise awareness and the challenges and stigma against it. Its always very important for everyone including yourself to know your status. It's free quick and easy, and can even be done in your own home!
Number 1: follow this link to get started: https://www.startswithme.org.uk/
Number 2: Find your nearest sexual health clinic.
Number 3: You can also ask your GP.
If you have any questions then please do get in touch with us at Deaf LGBTIQA via this email: hello@deaflgbtiqa.org.uk
Remember, give HIV the finger!
Daniel McManus is a 35 year old deaf gay man who is outspoken on his Facebook page on what is close to his heart through personal experiences; LGBTIQA+ equality. He was mainstreamed at Dingwall Academy in Scotland and is now working in finance. He likes health and fitness, cooking, LGBTIQA+ issues (obviously!), international cinema, writing, reading, and outdoor activities.
Daniel wanted to express his opinion on the recent protests at two schools in Birmingham that has been going on for 6 months as some parents and others in the community were concerned that the equality programme that explains different types of modern families being introduced went against their religious beliefs and felt that it promoted LGBTIQA sexuality. Due to harressment against parents and staff at these schools, the council imposed a temporary no protest zone around the schools, and this was made pernament on 26th November by the Birmingham High Court as the ruling Judge Mr Justice Warby stated that the injunction "does not amount to unlawful discrimination against the protestors" and added the protesters had "misunderstood and misrepresented that is being taught at the school" and that the lessons were not promoting homosexuality"
The government has made LGBT education compulsory in the RSE curriculum in all schools as planned from September 2020, so parents will not get a veto then.
THE BIRMINGHAM ANTI-LGBT PROTESTERS SHOULD LEARN FROM SECTION 28
Repealing Section 28 in the early 2000s was one of the greatest achievements for LGBT rights. Enacted in 1988 by Margaret Thatcher, the former UK Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservative political party, the anti-gay legislation banned councils from funding any kind of publications, plays, and films, showing LGBT content while teachers weren't allowed to teach about gay relationships in schools. One of the reasonings for such legislation, Thatcher asserted, was that "children who need to be taught to respect traditional moral values are being taught that they have an inalienable right to be gay. All of those children are being cheated of a sound start in life. Yes, cheated."
Such was the attitude prevalent at the time simply due to ignorance, fear and bigotry. For 15 years, this had a detrimental impact on the lives of LGBT people across the country. As a teenager who was also deaf, I was struggling to comprehend what I was going through when puberty hit. Bear in mind that there was no mobile phones, no Internet or social media. All the information that the public received was through the television, radio or newspaper – the medium most inaccessible to the majority of deaf LGBT people. And the tone of this media at the time was an insidiously homophobic one against which the LGBT community was utterly powerless to fight.
In high school, my peers noticed I was 'queer' but I did not understand the meaning of such slur. 'Gay', 'poof' and 'bent' were the other terms that were so casually thrown around the classroom and clearly targeted at me, yet I had no idea what those words meant. Nobody explained them clearly to me, but I had already surmised that they had negative connotations. Despite having eventually realised that I was attracted to persons of the same sex, for the entirety of my school life I still grappled with my sexuality. I was convinced that there was something wrong with me and at one point I didn't even want to be a 'poof'.
The endless bullying and mockery eventually took its toll on my mental health. Yet, I was still completely in the dark about what this strange, bewildering part of me was and why it was happening to me, let alone whether there was anyone else out there who was like me. Growing up in the rural Scottish Highland town with no one to turn to for advice, I had an immense hunger for knowledge. So when I finally got a new computer and I was connected to the Internet for the first time, I was astonished by what I came across in cyberspace. The first word I wrote in the search bar was simply 'gay'. And when the results came up I was utterly overwhelmed. I was only 15 years old.
At 16, I was forced to come out to my father after he discovered a handwritten letter from a gay deaf friend of mine while tidying up my bedroom. I was at school at the time. In the letter there was a lot of discussion about being gay. Suffice to say that my father didn't take it well. He talked about his fear of gay people, about the dangers of AIDS and 'queer-bashing'. For these reasons he didn't want me to be gay. Fortunately however, in the end he eventually came round and accepted me and hugged me.
Now I'm 35 years old. Although it has been almost 20 years since Section 28 was repealed, the wounds from that painful period never really completely healed. Indeed, mental health remains a major issue in the LGBT community, even among the youths today because many teachers are still reluctant to talk about LGBT issues, either because they feel it's inappropriate or a taboo. Because of this, I was still desperately ignorant about STIs and HIV/AIDS well into my early 20s. I once went to the sexual health clinic in a panic after kissing another man because I thought I had caught AIDS from him. I often wonder what my childhood would have been like had the schools been allowed to discuss gay relationships, whether in sex education (to be fair, even straight sex education was atrocious!) or in casual classroom conversation with any teacher. Incidentally, my guidance teacher once told me to just stop being gay because "it isn't natural" after I had come to him for advice on how to stop the bullying. As a fully grown gay adult, it's inevitable for these painful memories to flood back from time to time, especially when I read the news about homophobia.
So when the news arrived that a judge made the decision to permanently ban the protests held by a group of angry anti-LGBT parents outside a Birmingham school, I was elated. I was elated because it shows that Britain has come a long, long way from Section 28. The parents, mainly of Muslim faith, were demanding an end to the equality lessons at their children's school because teaching children that LGBT people merely exist goes against their religious beliefs. They've spent the last 6 months tirelessly promoting hate speech by waving anti-LGBT banners, spreading deliberate misinformation and refusing to be educated about what was actually being taught at the school. Forcing the school to censor a section of society because it doesn't fit in with their religious worldview is neither acceptable nor a right.
So these parents would do very well to reconcile their religious beliefs rationally in order to be compatible with the secular values upheld by the pluralistic society in which we all inhabit by discarding their outdated homophobic views. And understanding that the only agenda that we LGBT people have for their children is for them to be taught that respect and acceptance, not hate and bigotry, are the only way, and for any LGBT children present to be told that it is okay to be who they are. Mental health, as previously mentioned, is a major problem right now in the LGBT community, and suicide is still blighting lives so these lessons being taught in school are literally a life-saver and that, without a doubt, is a priority. After all, what would these parents, for whom religion they keep preaching to be about love and acceptance, do with their children if they turn out to be LGBT?
We have a BIG announcement! Its finally here, all the work done by our fantastic volunteers behind the scenes. (photos below)
Our nationwide survey is ready. If you are deaf, living in the UK and identify as being on the LGBTIQA spectrum, then we want to hear from you!
TO GET STARTED, PLEASE FOLLOW THE SURVEY LINK HERE
The purpose of this consultation is so that we can find out from you what you would like us to do, what issues deaf LGBTIQA+ people currently face in the UK and help us to make an action plan for the future!
By taking part or sharing it with others, it really helps us to know what you think!
Many thanks to largely in part from the grant given to us by the LGBT+ Consortium.
#deaflgbtopinion #deaflgbtiqa
Bi-Pride – an interview with Davey Nauth
The very first UK Bi Pride is happening this weekend at the Round Chapel in Hackney, London where there are BSL interpreters at this free event! There are interpreters for their Entertainment Stage where UK Bi and LGBTIQA+performances and at the I Am Proud stage for panels, activism and talks. There are also stalls at the event where you can explore too to get different information and buy things. The event starts at 2pm and ends at 10pm and you can easily get your free tickets online at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/bi-pride-uk-2019-tickets-65781146179.
I asked Davey Nauth, a deaf bisexual man who is involved in organising this event for more information about this exciting upcoming event.
Can you explain a little about yourself and your role for the Bi-Pride?
My name is Davey Nauth and I was born hearing-impaired and use Signed Support English. I joined Bi Pride UK last year as a trustee member to organise Bi Pride UK.
How did you get involved in the first place and being deaf, is communication smooth in the organising?
Bi Pride UK advertised for committee members so I applied to get involved and accepted their offer as a Digitial and Technology trustee member. I had an BSL interpreter for the interview so it went smoothly.
In your own words, why is Bi Pride important to have in the UK today?
It will be first Bi Pride in the United Kingdom, as last year there was a first one in America. It made us realsie how important it is for us to show publicity without fear from biphobia, bi-erasure and bi-invisiblity as they are all prevalent issues. Our chairperson said "Bi and pan people are just not having their voices heard loud enough. Don't get me wrong, Prides all across the UK do amazing things for bi people and do cater for bi groups, however people who experience attraction beyond gender, make up a significant proportion of the LGBTQ community and bi people are not getting enough of the limelight.". We aim to create a safe space for bisexuals, pansexuals and all those who experience attraction beyond gender, projecting one simple clear message – bisexual people exist and, more importantly, bisexual people matter.
Since having being established last year, we have been giving advice to Prides across the UK on how to make them more inclusive for deaf attendances. Can you give us some advice on how to do more on this?
As I can see that your organisation have been working hard in trying to make deaf bisexuals more inclusive and visible in other Prides, you could also advise to make other Prides as accessible as possible – with BSL interpreters on-stage, and roaming BSL interpreters on-site.
How did you come about in ensuring BSL access is part of the first Bi Pride?
My colleague and I advised to have BSL interpreters on-site for deaf attendances to feel more welcome and more inclusive to their needs.
What advice would you give to people who are coming out as Bisexuals?
Please join us at our first Bi Pride UK or talk to me about future Bi events across the world. Do not listen to anyone saying that you cannot be bisexual or you have to choose only one side! No more hiding from yourself, be free and fluid in your way whatever way you wish to be!
I can be contacted at davey.trustee@biprideuk.org
Posted on August 27, 2019 December 6, 2019
HPV vaccine information
Here's the above video done by one of our members Damian on the importance of having the HPV vaccine.
HPV vaccinations are available for anyone under the age of 45.
If you are gay, bi or you are a man who has sex with men? Under 45? We want to tell you about HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccinations (not to be confused from HIV, as that is different). The (HPV) vaccine is being made available throughout the UK through sexual health clinics to gay, bi or MSM (men who have sex with men) who are 15 and up to 45 years of age. After 45, the vaccine is less effective. You will need 3 doses and different time periods.
The vaccine will help to prevent HPV infection which can cause genital warts and HPV-associated cancers (such as penile, anal and throat). It is especially important for those who are living with HIV Please book an appointment at your local Sexual Health clinic to get these jabs. For more information about HPV vaccinations, please see the link below:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov…
Posted on August 4, 2019 November 4, 2019
LGBT consortium Grant
We have some amazing news to share! The lovely people at LGBT consortium have granted the Deaflgbtiqa organisation £5980!
DEAFLGBTIQA is the UK's only Deaf led LGBTIQA charity which has been successful in securing funding from the LGBT Consortium to carry out ground breaking research into the needs of members of the Deaf LGBTIQA+ community.
This will help us to carry out consultations with people who are deaf and identify as either lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex, queer or asexual (LGBTIQA) in England. The funding will be used to train volunteers and implement focus groups around England to find out the views of Deaf LGBTIQA people, capture issues they have from being in a "minority within a minority" group and explore how service providers can improve community engagement.
Chair, Tyron Woolfe, "We are delighted that the hard work of the board, working in close partnership with the LGBT Consortium has led to the allocation of the grant to us. We are looking forward to seeing the results of the research to help us develop and grow and facilitate other projects to improve the lives of UK's Deaf LGBT population."
Findings will be used to engage in discussions with health providers and service providers to increase emphasis on service user involvement and encourage their role in the planning and delivery of healthcare services.
Current funding regulations stipulates that the funding has to be allocated organisations based in England. However, we strongly urge organisations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to join us in taking this project forward.
The Deaf LGBTIQA project is just over a year old and has grown its work with our small group of volunteers. Here's to great and brighter things for our organisation.
Sahera's film – can you help?
https://youtu.be/o1LRm-ahAgI
My name is Sahera Khan; I am British South Asian Deaf and Muslim My native language is British Sign Language and I am currently a freelance writer, artist/actress, filmmaker and YouTuber. My website is sahera1.tumblr.com.
In summer 2019 I will make a short film called 'Blind to See'. 'Blind to See' is a working title; the genre of the film is drama and it talks about LGBT+ issues. The aim of the project is to raise awareness of D/deaf Muslim LGBT+ minority.
The film would be suitable for a wide diverse audience anywhere from young people to older adults, especially the Muslim audience.
A brief synopsis: Character A and Character B are close family, one of them is LGBT+ and they want to reveal this to the other.
The project will cost £800 and this will be spent on production costs: fees for my time, cameraperson fees, editing fees, travel expenses, cast expenses, possible insurance costs, hire costs for day shoot at a cafe and film festival entry fees.
I am counting on your support for my project. To donate, please go to http://kck.st/2vuX1Wv ,which also includes a BSL video with English subtitles/captions and great rewards if you wish to contribute. The link also includes more information about the project.
If you are unable to contribute financially, please take a moment to share my project news with your communities and networks. I appreciate your time.
If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact me at skhan01@live.co.uk
Posted on April 9, 2019 June 3, 2019
Cervical Cancer Screening – its not just for Straight Women
I want to talk about Cervical Cancer Screening. Cervical cancer is not just a straight woman's issue, as it affects LGBT and trans who may have internal female parts too.
It is concerning as currently 3,000 women are diagnosed every year, and an average of 900 women die every year. This figure includes LGBT and trans women. At the moment one in three ignore screening letters and do not bother to book the simple screening test. There are several reasons why they don't do the test – they may be embarrassed that healthcare staff will be looking at their private parts, but they are so used to see lots of bodies every day, it's not a big issue for them! And it only takes five minutes.
There was a brief peak uptake on screening tests when Jade Goody, a Big Brother celebrity discovered too late that she had cervical cancer in 2008. Even though she only had eight months to live, she was very open about her journey and campaigned to encourage more women to get tested. But sadly, the peak is gone and the government is now concerned by the low uptake.
Due to their research National LGBT Partnership have discovered that 37% of LGBT and trans have been told by healthcare professionals not to do the test as there was no risk for them, as they don't do straight sex. But HPV, the virus that causes cervical cancer is passed on through skin to skin intimate contact too so there is a risk for them. So this disinformation is concerning.
Public Health England, an government organisation is currently doing a public campaign to remove the disinformation amongst healthcare staff and advising LGBT to go get tested regularly too. It's not just the UK that has this problem as in other western countries, there is a misinformation issue among healthcare professionals too.
It's so easy to get tested, just go to your GP and they will book one for you and the test is only 5 minutes, so there is no need to be embarrassed as it could just save your life! Please think about it.
PHE Screening blog – https://phescreening.blog.gov.uk
NHS Cervical Screening (CSP) Programme – https://www.gov.uk/topic/population-screening-programmes/cervical
NHS Cervical Screening – https://www.nhs.uk/cervicalscreening
Posted on March 31, 2019 June 3, 2019
#TransDayofVisibility
Sunday 31st March 2019 is #TransDayofVisibility
DeafLGBTIQA is publishing this interview done by Abigail Gorman which was featured in issue 1 of EUDY's magazine, OFC! and has permission from Samantha, thanks!
Have a look at www.deaflgbtiqa.org.uk. If you are transgender or you would like to improve our website/work please get in touch!
Samantha Pearsall: From bullying and depression to acceptance and love.
Hi Samantha, thanks for the time to talk to me. I've known you for a while, but our readers don't. Would you like to fill them in on who you are?
No problems! Hi, I'm Samantha and I'm 31 years old. I was born in Middlesborough, a city in the North-East of England. I now live in Manchester, and I work as an Service Manager. Oh… and I was born as Richard.
Yes, that's right. Samantha is a transgendered woman, and she has decided to share her story with us. So, where did it all start?
I remember when I was six years old, my parents took my brothers and I to our favourite toy store, TOYS R US, and told us we could go and take whatever we liked. Obviously we went crazy and ran up and down the aisles, looking at all kinds of toys! My brothers came back to our parents, clutching Action Men figures, and I came back holding a Little Mermaid and Belle from Beauty and the Beast figurines. My father told me nicely to put the toys away and to get something else. I didn't understand why I was being told to put my toys away but my brothers weren't. I refused to listen to him, and stood my ground. My mother took my father one side and had a quiet discussion. They came back to me and told me that I was allowed to take the figurines home, on one condition – I wasn't allowed to take them to school with me – this confused me, but I agreed. That was the moment I realised I was slightly different, but I couldn't put my finger on what it exactly was. I didn't really understand what gender was at the time.
Wow. That must have been a confusing time for you.
It was, definitely. It wasn't until I was eight years old that I began to realise why I was different. I realised I was a girl. You have to remember, this was Middlesborough in the 90s. Boys had to grow up to be strong, strapping footballing lads. If I came out with that, I would've been beaten to a pulp. So, I didn't say anything. Instead, I would creep into the bathroom and wrap the towel around my wet head, because that was what all the girls did. I would also go into my mother's closet and try on her clothes when she was away. I wanted to be a girl and doing that was the only time I actually felt normal.
But you didn't come out at that time, did you?
No, I didn't. I would get bullied at school for being too feminine. Every time there was a fancy dress event, I would jump at the chance to wear dresses! I would dance to the cheesiest pop music ever, and play with my Little Mermaid and Belle figurines. My brothers would be confused by how girly I was being. When I was eleven, I noticed that I was growing up in a very male dominated society, and I was supposed to behave in a certain way. So, I put my feelings aside and tried to be the person they all expected me to be and started playing football.
What was going through your head at the time?
Well, as the years went by, I became more skilled at hiding my feelings. I knew I couldn't be the person I wanted to be, and it killed me. Whenever I climbed into the shower, I would hide my genitals so I wouldn't be reminded that I was in the wrong body. It was a very stressful time for me, and playing football was actually a outlet for my frustration. Don't get me wrong, I had fantastic childhood with my family but I also had to battle my demons.
Your demons? Can you tell me more?
You see, I would look at myself in the mirror and what I'd see didn't match with how I felt. It was awful, and every time I looked in the mirror, I was being taunted. In my mind and heart, I was a woman, but what I saw in front of me was a chubby boy.
A chubby boy? That's right! I remember the first time I met you. It was at Manchester Gay Pride! Your name was Richard, you were slightly overweight, living in Middlesborough and if I remember correctly, you were also gay?
Haha! That's right. When I was twelve, I realised I had feelings for boys. As you can imagine, this only added to the confusion. I didn't know if I was a girl or a gay boy. It was a nightmarish time for me, so I sought comfort in food and shopping. The pounds piled on me as I ate away my pain and the pounds piled up as I tried to hide my pain with nice clothes and hairstyles. Unfortunately this meant I ended up in debt. Like I said earlier on, this was Middlesborough, I couldn't tell anyone I liked boys. My mother suspected though.. she approached me when I was sixteen and told me that if I wanted to came out, she would support me.
When did you come out? Why did you decide to come out as a gay man instead of a transgendered woman?
When I was seventeen, I realised that I couldn't hide my feelings anymore. I became ill and suffered with depression because deep inside, I knew that I was a woman. No arguments. I was tired of hiding who I was. I just simply wanted to be myself. It was also at this point that my brother decided to come out as gay! I felt having two gay sons would be too much for my mother and father, let alone having a transgendered daughter! So… I kept my mouth quiet. I eventually came out as gay when I was eighteen, and they weren't surprised.
What prompted the move to Manchester?
I was twenty-one when I decided to move to Manchester. I felt like I couldn't be who I was in Middlesborough. As much as I loved it, it just wasn't the place for me. So, I packed up my bags and moved to Manchester. I moved in with my best friend, Rusty. We would go out partying on Canal Street, I lost lots of weight, had a gorgeous apartment in a prime location and I enjoyed my job. Life was good, but I still hadn't taken the step I wanted to so badly – coming out as a woman. I wanted to confide in Rusty, but I was scared of being rejected. So… I spoke to Rusty's brother instead! I told him how I felt and he told me that it was my choice. As much as I appreciated him being understanding, I felt that statement wasn't helpful at all! I spoke to Rusty, and interestingly enough, he struggled with it. He thought I was going through a phase. It stung a bit, but I left him be. As time went by, he would see how happy I was when I dressed up as a woman and realised that he had to put his views aside and support me. Looking back now, I realise that he found it difficult as he thought he would be losing me. He struggled to accept it because he didn't want to face that happening.
So, when did Richard become Samantha?
Well, I was working in the Mental Health department in the Forensic Unit, and every day I would see clients whose lives had been turned upside down by stress, depression and what have you. I remember one particular night, I was doing my rounds, checking up on my clients. In every room I checked in on, I would find them sitting on the edge of their beds, with their heads in their hands. They were truly depressed and unhappy with their lives. I realised that if I didn't seek help, I would be well on my way to actually sitting on that bed myself.
What did your parents say?
My family struggled with it. They found it hard to accept the fact that their son no longer wanted to be their son. I think my father found it more difficult than my mother did. He had a baby boy, built a bond with him throughout his childhood and now that little boy wants to be a woman? It was confusing for them, and they didn't know who they could talk to. There wasn't a service that could provide counselling to parents with children wanting to go through transition. My parents say that now they realise the emotions they were experiencing was grief, the child they brought up has suddenly died. However, with time, those feelings passed and they accepted my new identity. They were really supportive. Granted, they found it hard to accept but they've always been supportive of my transition. During my transition, I knew they wanted to see a glimpse of Richard, but I had to be true to myself. Richard was no more, and Samantha was here to stay. They finally accepted it and came with me to hospital appointments. They came with me to my operation because they knew it was a new start for me, and therefore it had to be a new start for them as well. They welcomed Samantha as Richard's twin sister.
What happened next? You have a funny story, don't you?
Haha! That's right. I made an appointment with the gender clinic and told them I wanted to transition. I was sitting in the office when the doctor came in. He didn't look at the notes, and just started talking about what a female-to male would entail. I was in shock. I had to correct him! At the time, I was outraged by their incompetency, but now I can look back and laugh, and feel flattered that he thought I was a female! They told me that I had to dress up a female for a year or so before I could have the operation. I had to experience life as a woman, and prepare myself mentally for it before going ahead with it. This came easily to me and I embraced it!
So… the operation came and went. How did you feel afterwards?
Oh… it was unbelievable. It was amazing. It was finally Day One of my new life as a woman. This was finally the day I had craved for my whole life. I never thought I'd get to this point, but there I was. A woman. It was… freedom. I was finally released and able to live life as the person I've always wanted to be. I wouldn't have done it without the support and love I received from my family and friends. They gave me the courage to be the person I wanted to be – no, sorry. They gave me the courage to be the person I really was.
Awh, bless. I'm feeling a little bit emosh now. How do you think life may be different for trans kids in school right now?
Because of the Equality Act finally being put into place, trans children are now in the 'Protected characteristics' category. This means they are now given the freedom to the person they want to be. This is a positive step for every trans children in the UK. The children in the class don't know any better. It's up to society to lead the way by showing acceptance towards people who are in the 'protected characteristics' category.
For those who have no idea what being transgendered means, what do they need to understand?
Everyone needs to understand being transgendered is not a choice. A transgendered person has identified their body and mind isn't compatible, and therefore has to change in order to feel comfortable within their body.
Would you agree that the trans movement is gaining momentum? Why do you think the reason for this is?
Yes, I agree. Our Facebook – DeafTransDivaWorld – is a perfect example why the Trans Movement is gaining momentum. Social media is a perfect platform for transgendered people all over the world to connect with each other. People are becoming politically savvy, using Facebook/Twitter as a way of keeping into touch with everyone to raise awareness and to push for social change all over the world.
Transgendered celebrities are becoming more noticeable in the public eye now. Laverne Cox and Chaz Bono, who are LGBT advocates and gay rights activists, are speaking out about issues that affects the community. Stonewall's campaign – Some people are Trans, get over it – is such a powerful message, and I think it has made an impact. Transgendered people belong to a small community, and if you add deafness to the mix, that community becomes much smaller. Deaf transgendered people are scattered all over the world, but DeafTransDivaWorld connects them and gives them the opportunity to share their experiences, ideas, information and enables them to build a strong and supportive network to help them throughout their transition.
Why do you think some people are uncomfortable? What's your response to people who oppose the trans-friendly laws?
This is down to their attitude/culture/education/religion. Yes, everyone is entitled to their own views, opinions and beliefs. But you should also accept that everyone is different in their own way and once you accept that, society can move forward.
What are your words of advice to someone who is still confused about who they are?
Talk to someone you trust if you're experiencing discomfort or uncertainty about your gender. The important thing is to talk to a person you trust, whether it be a teacher, parents or friends. Do not suffer in silence, this will only make the situation worse. Sometimes your parents will more supportive than you thought they would be. Coming out as Trans is never an easy decision. Sometimes it's best to seek help from your doctor – they can refer you to the appropriate counselling service for Deaf such as for example: BSL Healthy Minds from SignHealth in the UK and/or seeing a gender specialist.