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Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
168 matches for " referendum":
13 February 2018 Is a Second Referendum May's Only Way to Break the Impasse? (Publication Centre)
Suggestions that the U.K. government might choose to hold a second referendum have been constantly rebuffed by the Prime Minister.
20 June. A Final Look at Post-Referendum Paths for Sterling (Publication Centre)
One way or the other, the post-referendum lurch in sterling will make its recent gyrations pale by comparison. If the U.K. votes to remain in the E.U.--as we continue to expect--then sterling likely will jump up to about $1.48 immediately afterwards. As our first chart shows, the gap between sterling and the level implied by the current difference between overnight index swap rates in the U.S. and Britain is currently about $0.05.
16 Feb. 2016 E.U. Referendum Carries Risks, But A Current Account Crisis Isn't One (Publication Centre)
The starting gun for the "Brexit" referendum will be fired this week if E.U. leaders, who meet for a two-day summit starting Thursday, agree to the draft reform package assembled by Prime Minister and E.U. President Donald Tusk.
22 Oct. 2015 Will Simply Holding The E.U. Referendum Harm The Economy? (Publication Centre)
Discussion about whether the U.K. would be better off voting to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum is rarely out of the press, raising the question of whether simply holding the national vote could damage the economy even if the U.K. votes for the status quo in the end.
21 June. How Soon Will we Know the Referendum Result? (Publication Centre)
Investors will have to keep their wits about them following the close of polls at 22:00 BST on Thursday. Sterling and other asset prices will move sharply when the likely result of the U.K.'s E.U. referendum is discernible, but exactly when that point will come during the night is uncertain.
6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)
Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.
19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)
Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.
27 July. 2016 Firm Q2 GDP Unlikely to Signal Post-Referendum Resilience (Publication Centre)
The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP, published today, likely will show that growth was immaterially different from Q1's 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rate. But this should not be interpreted as a sign that the economy will be able to shrug off the impact of last month's vote to leave the E.U.
20 July. 2016 Job Growth Faded Pre-Referendum, but the Real Hit Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)
Today's labour market data look set to show that the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate held steady at just 5% in May, unchanged from April's reading.
1 June. How to Read the Tea Leaves Before and On Referendum Night (Publication Centre)
Sterling's fall yesterday to $1.45 from $1.46 after the release of online and phone opinion polls from ICM both showing a three percentage point lead for "Leave" over "Remain" underlines that it not a formality that the U.K. will be a full member of the E.U. this time next month.
19 September 2017 Separatists in Catalonia are on the Road to Nowhere (Publication Centre)
The face-off is intensifying between Madrid and the pro-independent local government in Catalonia. A referendum on independence in the northeastern state has been rejected by the Spanish government and has been declared constitutionally illegal by the high court.
21 December 2016 Big Current Account Deficit Likely to Cloud Resilient GDP Picture (Publication Centre)
The third quarter national accounts, due to be published on Friday, likely will not alter the picture of economic resilience immediately after the referendum. The latest estimate of GDP growth often is revised in this release, but revisions have not exceeded 0.1 percentage points in either direction in the last four years, as our first chart shows.
28 July. 2016 Acceleration of Q2 GDP Won't Have Much Bearing on Stimulus Debate (Publication Centre)
Taken at face value, the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP suggests that the economic recovery weathered Brexit risk well. But growth received support from some unsustainable sources, and also probably was boosted by a calendar quirk. Meanwhile, with few firms or consumers expecting a vote for Brexit prior to the referendum, Q2's brisk growth tells us little about how well the economy will cope in the current climate of heightened uncertainty.
9 May 2017 Two Answers and Many Questions, as President Macron Settles in (Publication Centre)
Mr. Macron's victory in France answers two questions for markets, at least in the short run. Firstly, France will stay in the Eurozone, and Mr. Macron will not call a referendum on EU membership. Mr. Macron has come to power with a mandate to strengthen economic integration and co-operation between Eurozone economies.
4 July. 2016 A Look into the Abyss - Will the EZ and the EU Disintegrate? (Publication Centre)
For some economists and political analysts the surprising result of the U.K.'s EU referendum symbolises one of the biggest threats to the structure of the post-war social-liberal market economy. To this school of thought, the vote proved that the discontent of a pressured and disenfranchised working/middle class is rising, threatening to topple economies and political institutions.
18 August. 2016 Headline Labour Market Numbers Flatter to Deceive (Publication Centre)
It's easy to claim from yesterday's labour market data that the economy is weathering the uncertainty caused by the E.U. referendum. Employment rose by 172K, or 0.5%, between Q1 and Q2, and the claimant count fell by 7K month-to-month in July. These numbers, however, flatter to deceive.
23 June. The Polls are Wrong to Suggest Brexit is a 50:50 Risk (Publication Centre)
On the eve of the referendum, opinion polls continue to suggest that the result is essentially a coin toss. The latest online polls point to a neck-and-neck race, while telephone polls point to a narrow Remain victory.
23 June. 2016 Brexit Would Trigger a Dollar Surge, But it's an Unlikely Outcome (Publication Centre)
With most poll-of-poll measures showing a very narrow margin in the U.K. Brexit referendum, while betting markets show a huge majority for "Remain", today brings a live experiment in the idea that the wisdom of crowds is a better guide to elections than peoples' preferences.
30 November. 2016 Recovery in Lending Unlikely to Maintain October's Momentum (Publication Centre)
October's money data show that households and firms have regained the appetite for borrowing that they lost immediately after the referendum. But the recent rise in swap rates and the deterioration in consumers' confidence likely will cut short the revival in consumer lending, while persistent Brexit uncertainty likely will continue to subdue firms' investment intentions.
15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)
When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.
10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)
EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.
15 Apr. Nothing in MPC Minutes to Support Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)
The minutes of yesterday's MPC meeting indicate that it is not going to be panicked into cutting interest rates in the run-up to the E.U. referendum in June. The Committee voted unanimously again to keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, and dovish comments were conspicuously absent.
13 Jan. 2016 Sterling Has Not Priced-in Brexit Risks Yet, Despite Recent Plunge (Publication Centre)
Claims abound that sterling's sharp depreciation since the start of the year--to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2010--partly reflects the growing risk that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum. We see little evidence to support this assertion. Sterling's decline to date can be explained by the weakness of the economic data, meaning that scope remains for Brexit fears to push the currency even lower this year.
16 July. 2015 The ECB Will be Put on the Spot for Its Role in the Greek Chaos (Publication Centre)
The ECB will keep its main interest rates and the pace of QE purchases unchanged today. Mr. Draghi will also reiterate the commitment to continuing QE until September next year, at least. But the press conference likely will focus on Greece, and the central bank's role in the chaos. Greek financial institutions are on the verge of collapse, partly because the ECB has been forced to cap emergency liquidity assistance--ELA--at €89B, and raise collateral haircut requirements following the announcement of the referendum.
17 August 2018 Pessimism Towards Retailers Looks Warranted, Despite July's Sales Rise (Publication Centre)
Equity prices for U.K. retailers have performed woefully since the E.U. referendum. The FTSE All-Share Index for general retailers has underperformed the overall All-Share Index by nearly 30% since the Brexit vote.
17 August. 2016 Job Vacancy Data to Give Early Steer on Recession Odds (Publication Centre)
Today's labour market figures will provide the first "hard data" showing how the economy has fared since the referendum. The headline employment and unemployment numbers will refer to the three months ending June, but data for July will be published on the number of people claiming unemployment benefit and the level of job vacancies.
13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)
Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.
30 June. 2015 Greece and the Eurozone in Limbo Until the Referendum in Greece (Publication Centre)
Eurozone politicians are likely scrambling for a last gasp return to negotiations before the Greek bailout program ends at the end of today. But progress will likely be limited until we have the result of the planned Greek referendum on Sunday. Voters will be asked essentially on whether they agree with the proposal presented by the institutions. The government will campaign for a "no," but a "yes" looks more likely, based on polls that Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone.
Business Insider - The analyst who called the 2017 election exactly right says Theresa May could be forced to call a second Brexit referendum (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the chances of a second Brexit Referendum
CNBC - European stocks close higher after referendum rejection (Media Centre)
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Italian Referendum result
5 December. 2016 Renzi is Set to Lose Referendum, and Likely Will Step Down (Publication Centre)
As we go to press, all evidence suggests that the Italian population has rejected the Constitutional referendum. An exit poll conducted by Italian broadcasters at 22.00 CET indicates that the "no" side has it, by a majority of 56% to 44%. These polls have proven unreliable in the past, though, and we won't know for sure until the early hours in Europe.
Business Insider UK - Theresa May only has two Brexit options left: Capitulation to the EU or a second referendum (Media Centre)
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Latvia
25 Apr. 2016 Growth Will Rebound in Q2, But Brexit Fears Will Constrain the Fed (Publication Centre)
We are revising our forecast for Fed action this year, taking out two of the four hikes we had previously expected. We now look for the Fed to hike by 25bp in September and December, so the funds rate ends the year at 0.875%. The Fed's current forecast is also 0.875%, but the fed funds future shows 0.6%.
25 February 2019 Will Business Investment Really Rebound if No-Deal is Avoided? (Publication Centre)
On the face of it, the potential for a tangible boost to GDP growth from a revival in business investment after a no-deal Brexit has been averted appears modest.
24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)
EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.
24 November 2017 GDP Growth Remains too Reliant on Households Saving Less (Publication Centre)
Yesterday's second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the U.K. economy has underperformed this year.
24 June. Initial Thoughts on the U.K.'s Shock Brexit Vote (Publication Centre)
Britain's shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that likely will drive the U.K. into recession.
24 May 2017 Weak Tax Receipts Cast Doubt on Business Surveys' Optimism (Publication Centre)
April's public finances indicate that the economy has remained weak in Q2, casting doubt on the suggestion from recent business surveys that the slowdown in Q1 was just a blip.
25 July. 2016 Should We Believe the Downbeat PMI? (Publication Centre)
Last week's news that the composite PMI collapsed to 47.7 in July--its lowest level since April 2009--from 52.4 in June is the first clear indication that the U.K. is heading for a recession.
25 October 2018 Winter is Coming for the British Housing Market (Publication Centre)
Mortgage approvals by the main high street banks dropped to a five-month low of 38.5K in September, from 39.2K in August, according to trade body U.K.Finance.
26 November 2018 Is a May Rate Hike Nailed-on if a No-Deal Brexit Is Avoided (Publication Centre)
The Bank of England will be dragged into the political arena on Thursday, when it sends the Treasury Committee its analysis of the economic impact of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration, as well as a no-deal, no- transition outcome.
27 Apr. Markets' View that Brexit Odds Have Declined Looks Premature (Publication Centre)
Sterling has rallied against both the dollar and the euro over the last week on the assumption that interventions by the U.K. Treasury and President Obama in the Brexit debate have shifted public opinion towards remaining in the E.U.
26 March 2019 Is a Snap General Election Inevitable? (Publication Centre)
Speculation that another general election is imminent has intensified in recent weeks.
26 June 2017 Keep Calm and Carry On Expecting Further Inaction from the MPC (Publication Centre)
Mark Carney's assertion that "now is not yet the time to raise rates" fell on deaf ears last week. Markets are pricing-in a 20% chance that the MPC will increase Bank Rate at the next meeting on August 3, up from 10% just after the MPC's meeting on June 15, when three members voted to hike rates.
26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)
Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.
26 July. 2016 The German Economy Stalled in Q2, But Should Rebound in Q3 (Publication Centre)
The German statistical office will supply a confidential estimate to Eurostat for this week's advance euro area Q2 GDP data. Our analysis suggests this number will be grim, and weigh on the aggregate EZ estimate. Our GDP model, which includes data for retail sales, industrial production and net exports, forecasts that real GDP in Germany contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, after a 0.7% jump in Q1.
24 June. 2016 The U.K. Wants out of the EU, and Markets are Not Happy (Publication Centre)
The two polls suggesting the U.K. would remain in the EU yesterday proved to be a noose for investors to hang themselves with, as the results pointed to a vote for Brexit. Markets already are in disarray, and the direction is as we expected and feared. EUR/GBP is up 7%, and the DAX 30 in Germany is indicated by futures to plunge a hefty 7%-to-8% at the open. Bund yields will collapse too, and all eyes will be on the spread between Germany and the rest of the periphery.
24 June 2019 The New PM Soon will be Asking for a Further Brexit Extension (Publication Centre)
British politics remains a complete mess, with many outcomes, ranging from no-deal Brexit to revoking Article 50, possible in the second half of this year.
21 April 2017 Faites vos Jeux! Anything is Possible in France this Weekend (Publication Centre)
This weekend's first round of the French presidential election is too close to call. Our first chart indicates that a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron remains the best bet. But the statistical uncertainty inherent in the predictions, and the proximity of the two remaining candidates--the centre-right Mr. Fillon and far-left Mr. Melenchon-- mean that this is now effectively a four-horse race.
21 February 2018 The ECB is in the Headlines, But Not Because of its Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)
Politics are once again encroaching on the economic story in the Eurozone. At the ECB, this week has so far been a tumultuous one.
20 November 2018 The PM is Likely to Hang on, Even if a Confidence Vote is Triggered (Publication Centre)
As we write, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed publicly that they have submitted no-confidence letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. That's 23 short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, though some MPs might have submitted letters without making it public.
20 March 2019 The MPC Can't Ignore Rapidly- Rising Unit Wage Costs for Long (Publication Centre)
While financial markets remain obsessed with the Brexit saga, January's labour market data provided more evidence yesterday that the economy is coping well with the heightened uncertainty.
20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)
Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.
20 June. 2016 Will EZ Equity Inflows Rebound Again in this Business Cycle? (Publication Centre)
A year can make a big difference for the equity market. At this point last year, holders of the MSCI EU ex-UK were looking at a meaty gain of 21% year-to-date. The corresponding number this year is a sobering -12%. This is a remarkable shift, given stable GDP growth, close to cyclical highs, and additional easing by the ECB.
21 January 2019 How Far Will Sterling Jump if a Soft Brexit Becomes Government Policy? (Publication Centre)
Signs that the government is softening its Brexit plans, in response to its substantial defeat in the Commons last week, has enabled sterling to recover most of the ground lost against the dollar and euro in the fourth quarter of last year.
21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade (Publication Centre)
The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.
23 May. Is it Premature to Relax About Brexit Risk? (Publication Centre)
Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.
24 July 2018 Sterling has Plenty of Scope to Rise in a Soft Brexit Scenario (Publication Centre)
Sterling depreciated further last week as the Prime Minister's Brexit plans were tweaked by Brexiteers and given a lukewarm reception by the European Commission.
23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)
The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.
23 January 2019 The MPC Won't Risk Letting the Labour Market Overheat (Publication Centre)
November's labour market data were the last before the MPC's February meeting, when it will conduct its annual assessment of the supply side of the economy.
22 July. 2016 The ECB Tells Investors to go on Holiday and Come Back in Q3 (Publication Centre)
As widely expected, the ECB held fire yesterday. The central bank left its main refi rate unchanged at zero, and also kept the pace of QE unchanged at €80B a month. The deposit and marginal lending facility rates were also left unchanged at -0.4% and 0.25% respectively. The formal end-date of QE is still Q1 2017, but the press release repeated the message that QE can continue "beyond [Q1 2017], if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim."
27 June. 2016 Plunging Investment Will Be the Main Driver of the Brexit Downturn (Publication Centre)
The U.K.'s political situation is extremely fluid, so it would be risky automatically to assume that the U.K. is heading for Brexit. Although the Prime Minister has resigned, his attempt to hold out until October to begin the formal process of exiting the E.U. signals that he may be seeking to engineer a revised deal, or at least to force his successor to make the momentous decision of whether to trigger Article 50, to begin the leaving process.
28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)
We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.
3 May 2018 Can the Prime Minister Fight off the Brexiteers in her Party? (Publication Centre)
The pressure on Theresa May from Brexiteers within her own party intensified yesterday, when 60 Conservative MPs signed a letter arguing that they could not back a proposal for a "customs partnership".
3 October 2018 Investment is Dropping, but Don't Rule out a Rebound Next Year (Publication Centre)
One of the more disheartening aspects of the Q2 national accounts, released last week, was the downward revision to business investment. Quarteron-quarter growth was revised to -0.7%, from +0.5% previously.
6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)
October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.
3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)
Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.
2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)
The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.
3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)
Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.
4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)
The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.
4 April 2019 The Economy is Struggling, but not to the Extent Implied by the PMIs (Publication Centre)
All the main surveys of business activity in Q1 now have been released and they present a uniformly downbeat picture.
5 March 2019 Don't Write Off Construction Sector Support for GDP Growth (Publication Centre)
February's Markit/CIPS construction survey brought further evidence that the economy is being weighed down by Brexit uncertainty.
6 February 2018 The PMIs Show Brexit Risks are Continuing to Dampen Growth (Publication Centre)
The latest PMIs suggest that investors have jumped the gun in pricing-in a 50% chance of the MPC raising interest rates again as soon as May.
5 December 2018 How's the Maths in Parliament Looking for a People's Vote? (Publication Centre)
With less than a week to go until MPs' meaningful vote on Brexit legislation, on December 11, the Prime Minister still looks set to lose.
6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)
On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.
4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)
Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin
4 May 2017 How to Interpret the Results from Today's Local Elections (Publication Centre)
Today's local elections are more important than usual, because they will enable investors to assess if the Conservatives really are on track for a landslide victory in the general election, as suggested by the opinion polls and priced-in by the forex market.
3 April 2019 Is there a Majority in the Commons for Any Brexit Proposal? (Publication Centre)
Once again, MPs failed to coalesce around any way forward for Brexit in the indicative votes process on Monday.
8 June 2018 The FX Sell-off has Put Central Banks Under Stress, will they Act? (Publication Centre)
EM risk sentiment remains grim as the Trump administration dispenses protectionist trade measures. LatAm's biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have been hit the hardest, with their currencies falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively in the last week, the most in the EM world.
28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)
The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.
8 April 2019 Don't Rule Out a 2019 Rate Hike, if the Brexit Extension is Long (Publication Centre)
The point when businesses and households can breathe a sigh of relief about Brexit looks set to be delayed again this week.
28 September 2016 No Scope For Complacency on Inflation as Import Prices Rise (Publication Centre)
Our forecast that CPI inflation will shoot up to about 3% in the second half of 2017, from 0.6% last month, assumes that pass-through from the exchange rate to consumer goods prices will be as swift and complete as in the past. Our first chart shows that this relationship has held firm recently, with core goods prices falling at the rate implied by sterling's appreciation in 2014 and 2015.
28 October. 2016 Markets Are Complacent About the Chances of Another Rate Cut (Publication Centre)
The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, showing quarter-on-quarter growth slowing only to 0.5% from 0.7% in Q2, has kiboshed the chance that the MPC cuts Bank Rate next Thursday.
28 June 2019 Consumers' Confidence Still Points to Steady Growth in Spending (Publication Centre)
The latest E.C. survey shows the gap between firms' and households' confidence levels has remained substantial.
28 November. 2016 GDP Won't Sustain its Recent Momentum Next Year (Publication Centre)
The second estimate of Q3 GDP last week confirmed that the Brexit vote didn't immediately drain momentum from the economic recovery. But it is extremely difficult to see how growth will remain robust next year, when high inflation will cripple consumers and the impact of the decline in investment intentions will be felt.
7 November. 2016 Is Sterling Now Back on a Sustained Recovery Path? (Publication Centre)
Upbeat PMIs, the MPC's abandonment of its easing bias and the High Court ruling that only a parliamentary vote--and not the Prime Minister--can trigger Article 50, all helped sterling to make up some lost ground last week.
8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)
Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.
7 June. Are Falling Car Sales Signalling a Wider Consumer Malaise? (Publication Centre)
Consumer spending has been the main locomotive of the economic recovery over the last couple of quarters, as investment and net trade have dragged on growth. Signs are emerging, however, that consumption is slowing too.
8 January 2019 The Housing Market is Set to Freeze in Early 2019, Thanks to Brexit (Publication Centre)
The housing market perhaps is where the adverse impact of Brexit uncertainty can be seen most clearly.
29 September 2016 What to Look Out for During Friday's Data Deluge (Publication Centre)
The estimate of services output for the first month of the current quarter usually gets lost among the deluge of national accounts and balance of payments data released for the previous quarter.
29 June. 2016 Second Quarter GDP Growth Could Easily Breach 3% (Publication Centre)
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now estimate for second quarter GDP growth will be revised today, in light of the data released over the past few days. We aren't expecting a big change from the June 24 estimate, 2.6%, because most of the recent data don't capture the most volatile components of growth, including inventories and government spending. The key driver of quarterly swings in the government component is state and local construction, but at this point we have data only for April; those numbers were weak.
9 May. Inflation Report Forecasts Likely to Be Overshadowed by Brexit Risks (Publication Centre)
This week's Inflation Report--now released alongside the MPC's decision and minutes of its meeting in a deluge of releases now known as "Super Thursday"--is likely to be a damp squib.
6 July. 2015 Greece Votes No, and Takes a Step Closer to Exiting the Euro (Publication Centre)
The Greek polls released Sunday evening indicate a comfortable victory for "no," rejecting the latest EU proposal. This is not a good outcome for the market, and volatility will likely increase substantially today. The result--not confirmed as we go to press but very clearly indicated by the count so far--gives an air of legitimacy to Syriza's brinkmanship, but the creditors' reaction to a "no" vote, which they likely did not expect, is uncertain.
18 December 2017 The Large Decline in the EZ Trade Surplus is a Sign of More to Come (Publication Centre)
The euro area's external surplus dipped at the start of Q4.
12 April 2019 The Brexit Extension isn't the Death Knell for a 2019 Rate Hike (Publication Centre)
The E.U.'s decision to grant the U.K. a Brexit extension until October 31 does not extinguish the possibility that the MPC will raise Bank Rate before the end of the year.
11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)
April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.
11 February 2019 Net Exports Probably Boosted German GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)
German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.
12 May. Carney Unlikely to Fuel Post-Brexit Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)
The renewed fall in market interest rates and sterling this month indicates that markets expect the MPC to strike a dovish note at midday, when the Inflation Report is published, alongside the rate decision and minutes of this week's meeting.
12 September 2016 Will the MPC Stand By its Rate Cut Guidance this Week? (Publication Centre)
The Monetary Policy Committee likely will not follow up August's stimulus measures with another rate cut at its meeting on Thursday. The partial revival in surveys of activity and confidence have weakened the case for immediate action.
14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)
A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.
13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)
The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.
10 October 2018 Why aren't Households Draining Plentiful Housing Equity? (Publication Centre)
The economy's recovery from the 2008/09 recession has been weaker than after the previous two downturns partly because households have not depleted housing equity to fund consumption.
10 July 2018 Will the Government's New Brexit Plans Boost Business Investment? (Publication Centre)
Business investment has held up better than most economists--ourselves included--expected after the Brexit vote.
04 October. 2016 Manufacturing Revival Bolsters Case for the MPC to Hold Fire (Publication Centre)
The odds of the MPC cutting interest rates again in November took another knock yesterday after further signs that the manufacturing sector is getting back on its feet quickly.
02 Feb. 2016 Is the Recovery in Business Investment About to Fizzle Out? (Publication Centre)
Business investment has been resilient to the slowdown in the wider economy so far, with year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2015 averaging a very respectable 6.2%. Outside the oil sector, firms are generating healthy profits and can borrow cheaply.
2 August 2018 The MPC Won't Pull Its Punches When it Raises Rates Today (Publication Centre)
Investors awaiting today's interest rate decision might be a little unnerved to learn that the MPC has a track record of surprises.
1 July. 2016 The MPC Likely Will Dash Expectations of Substantial Easing (Publication Centre)
Mark Carney's assertion that "...some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer" is a clear signal that an interest rate cut is in the pipeline. But easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.
1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)
Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.
10 December 2018 Parliamentary Maths Points to Only One Plan B for the Prime Minister (Publication Centre)
Unless it blinks and delays, the government is on course for a hefty defeat on Tuesday, when it asks parliament to vote to approve the Withdrawal Agreement--WA--and Political Declaration.
1 March 2019 The Brexit Drag on Net Migration Should Fade This Year (Publication Centre)
The latest official data show that net migration to the U.K. hasn't fallen much, despite all the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote.
14 March 2017 A Hard Brexit is not Inevitable, Despite the Government's Rhetoric (Publication Centre)
With just days to go until the Government triggers Article 50, the consensus view remains that Britain is heading for a "hard" Brexit, which will leave it without unrestricted access to the single market and outside the customs union. We think this view overlooks how political pressures likely will change over the next two years.
11 October. 2016 German Exports Came Roaring Back in August, After a Weak July (Publication Centre)
Yesterday's German trade data showed that the external surplus recovered in August, following its poor start to Q3. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose to €22.2B, from €19.4B in July.
19 February 2018 Growth in Households' Spending Won't Recover This Year (Publication Centre)
Slower growth in households' spending was the main reason why the economy lost momentum last year.
19 August. 2016 The Consumer Bubble Will Pop Around the Year-End (Publication Centre)
It would be a serious mistake to conclude from July's retail sales figures that consumers' spending will be immune to the fallout of the Brexit vote. Households have yet to endure the hiring freeze and pay squeeze indicated by surveys of employers, or the price surge signalled by sterling's sharp depreciation. The real test for consumers' spending lies ahead.
18 July. 2016 Chile and Peru Hold Interest Rates, Hikes Will Come but not Until 2017 (Publication Centre)
Central banks in Chile and Peru kept their reference rates unchanged last week, as expected, as inflation pressures in both countries are starting to ease. But different economic outlooks are emerging. Chile's economy continues to disappoint, while Peru's is picking up. Indeed, Peru is the only country in the region with clear positive momentum.
19 November 2018 A Hawkish Banxico Points to Further Hikes, Everything Depends on AMLO (Publication Centre)
Mexican policymakers voted last Thursday to hike the main rate by 25bp to 8.0%, the highest since early 2009.
14 November 2018 Still Enough Slack to Prevent Wage Growth From Rising Further (Publication Centre)
September's labour market report suggests that wage growth won't continue to rise for much longer.
19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)
A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.
19 September 2016 Surging Narrow Money Growth is Not a Good Sign (Publication Centre)
Our view that the economy is slowing sharply appears, superficially, to be challenged by the surge in the money supply. Year-over-year growth in the value of banknotes and coins in circulation has shot up this year, to 8.3% in August, from 5.5% in December 2015.
18 July 2017 The Conundrum of Germany's Huge Current Account Surplus (Publication Centre)
No subject in the EZ economy is a source of more dispute than Germany's ballooning current account surplus. The Economist recently identified he German surplus as a problem for the world economy.
19 November 2018 Keep the Faith in Stronger Sterling by the End of March (Publication Centre)
Sterling took another pounding last week. Resignations from the Cabinet, protests by the DUP, and the public submission of letters by 21 MPs calling for a confidence vote in Mrs. May's leadership, imply that parliament won't ratify the current versions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration on the future relationship with the E.U. next month.
16 November 2018 When Parliament Votes Down the Withdrawal Deal, What Next? (Publication Centre)
Even if the Prime Minister fends off an emerging leadership challenge--as we write, the rebels still are short of the 48 signatures required to trigger a confidence vote--her chances of getting parliament to back the Withdrawal Agreement in its current form are slim.
16 February 2017 Slowdown in Wage Growth Further Reduces 2017 Rate Hike Chances (Publication Centre)
Yesterday's labour market data delivered a further blow to hopes that consumers' spending will retain enough momentum for the MPC to press ahead and raise interest rates this year. The most striking development is the decline in year-over-year growth in average weekly wages to just 1.9% in December, from 2.9% in November.
15 June. Reasons to Remain Calm About Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)
Taken at face value, six of the eight opinion polls conducted over the seven days indicate that the U.K. will vote for Brexit on June 23. Our daily updated Chart of the Week, on page 3, shows the current state of play.
16 September 2016 The MPC Remains Poised to Cut Rates in November (Publication Centre)
Without tying its hands, the MPC--which voted unanimously to keep interest rates at 0.25% and to continue with the £60B of gilt purchases and £10B of corporate bond purchases authorised last month--gave a strong indication yesterday that it still expects to cut Bank Rate in November.
15 March 2019 Attempts by the PM to Revive Her Brexit Deal will Fail Again (Publication Centre)
The Prime Minister is threatening to bring back her Brexit deal to the Commons for a third time before March 20, in a final bid to win over the rebels within the Tory party who want a harder Brexit.
17 July 2018 Is the Prime Minister "A Dead Woman Walking"? (Publication Centre)
Former Chancellor George Osborne famously quipped after last year's general election that Theresa May was "a dead woman walking and the only question is how long she remains on death row".
17 November. 2016 Will Europe Have to Increase Spending on Defence Soon? (Publication Centre)
The winds of global politics are changing, and the major Eurozone countries could be forced to take heed. Donald Trump's foreign policy position remains highly uncertain. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the U.S. to increase defence spending next year; see the U.S. Monitor of October 20.
28 Apr. Don't Pin Your Hopes on a Post-Referendum Rebound (Publication Centre)
The slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 reflects more than just Brexit risk. The intensifying fiscal squeeze, the uncompetitiveness of U.K. exports, and the lack of spare labour suggest that the U.K.'s recovery now is stuck in a lower gear.
CNBC - Renzi referendum defeat won't break 'flawed' euro here (Media Centre)
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. and European Economies
2 June. Brexit Risk Looms Large Over Credit Growth (Publication Centre)
Even an ardent Brexiteer could not deny that uncertainty about the outcome of the E.U. referendum is subduing bank lending. The Bank of England's preferred measure of bank lending--M4 lending excluding intermediate other financial corporations, or OFCs--fell by 0.1% month-to-month in April.
2 August. 2016 The Inflation Outlook Will Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)
The pronounced weakness of activity surveys conducted since the referendum and the Governor's guidance in June, reinforced by the minutes of July's MPC meeting, indicate that a rate cut on Thursday is virtually guaranteed.
22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)
Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.
24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)
The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.
15 March 2017 Low Mortgage Arrears Hide Rising Risks as the Economy Slows (Publication Centre)
The slowdown in households' income growth since the referendum has not pushed up mortgage default rates, so far. Employment grew by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 and 0.1% in Q4, well below the 0.5% average rate seen in the three years before the referendum.
25 Apr. Preliminary GDP Data to Confirm Q1 Slowdown (Publication Centre)
The preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP likely will confirm that the economic recovery lost considerable pace in early 2016. Bedlam in financial markets in January and business fears over the E.U. referendum are partly responsible for the slowdown. The deceleration, however, also reflects tighter fiscal policy, uncompetitive exports, and the economy running into supply-side constraints.
05 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Indicates Rate Hike Not as Distant as Markets Think (Publication Centre)
The "Super Thursday" releases from the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--indicate that financial market turbulence and the approaching E.U. referendum have kiboshed the chances of an interest rate rise in the first half of this year. Nonetheless, the MPC's forecasts clearly imply that it expects to raise rates much sooner than markets currently anticipate, and the Governor signalled that a rate cut isn't under active consideration.
1 August. 2016 Negative Interest Rates Won't Be Part of the MPC's Policy Response (Publication Centre)
The collapse in business activity and consumer confidence since the referendum has sealed the deal on policy easing from the MPC on Thursday. The Committee has cut Bank Rate by 50 basis points when the composite PMI has been near July's level in the past, as our first chart shows.
25 Feb. 2016 Is Brexit as Likely as the Markets Seem to Think? (Publication Centre)
Sterling weakened further yesterday in response to the perception that the odds of the U.K. leaving the E.U. in the June referendum are rising. Cable fell to $1.39, its lowest level since March 2009. It is now $0.12 below the level one would anticipate from markets' expectations for short rates, as our chart of the week on page three shows.
1 November. 2016 The Credit-Driven Consumer Recovery is Reaching its Limits (Publication Centre)
Taken at face value, September's money supply data suggest that the economy is ebullient, quickly recovering from the shock referendum result. Year-over-year growth in notes and coins in circulation has accelerated to its highest rate since June 2002.
10 May. Hold Your Nerve on Brexit Risk, Despite Troubling Polls (Publication Centre)
With just over six weeks to go, opinion polls continue to suggest that the E.U. referendum will be extremely close. Noisy interventions in the public debate from the Treasury, independent international bodies, President Obama, and from the Prime Minister again today have had no discernible positive impact on the support for "Bremain" relative to "Brexit"
11 November. 2016 Will the Housing Market Recovery Hit Affordability Buffers? (Publication Centre)
After wobbling immediately after the referendum, house prices appear to be back on a rising trajectory. The Halifax measure of house prices, which is based on the lenders' mortgage offers, rose by 1.4% month-to-month in October, following a 0.3% increase in September.
13 May. MPC Signals Bremain Rate Hike, and Sounds Cool on Brexit Cut (Publication Centre)
The MPC's "Super Thursday" releases suggest that the Committee won't wait long to raise interest rates after a vote to stay in the E.U., which remains the most likely outcome of June's referendum. Meanwhile, we saw nothing to support markets' view that the MPC would ease policy in the wake of a Brexit.
9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)
London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.
30 June. 2016 Political Vacuum in the U.K. Prompts the EU to Up the Pressure (Publication Centre)
Leaders of the major Eurozone economies were in no mood to give concessions as they met with outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron this week for the first time since the referendum. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she sees "no way back from the Brexit vote." This followed comments that the U.K. couldn't be expected to "cherry-pick" the EU rules that it would like to follow after a new deal.
3 July. 2015 Will Desperation Force Greece to Print its Own "euros" and IOUs? (Publication Centre)
Rumours of Greece stepping back from the brink and accepting its creditors' demands, have taunted markets this week. But the response from the EU, so far, is that talks will not resume before this weekend's referendum. Our base case is a "yes" to the question of whether Greece should accept the proposal from the EU and IMF.
25 March 2019 The Long-Awaited Soft Brexit Pivot is Now Getting Underway (Publication Centre)
We expect MPs this week to take a big step towards a soft Brexit, which has been our base case since the referendum.
4 August. 2016 The PMIs Highlight the MPC's Policy Dilemma (Publication Centre)
The final July PMIs indicate that the post-referendum slump in activity has been even worse than the flash estimates originally implied. The manufacturing PMI was revised down to 48.2, from the 49.1 flash reading, while the services PMI was unrevised at 47.4, its lowest level since March 2009.
04 October. 2016 Colombian Voters Reject Peace Deal, Leaping into the Unknown (Publication Centre)
Colombians have rejected the peace deal with FARC guerrillas to end 52 years of war. The referendum saw relatively poor turnout--almost two thirds of voters abstained--but delivered 50.2% votes against the deal.
8 February 2017 Housing Market Flagging Again as Income Squeeze Intensifies (Publication Centre)
The MPC's interest rate cut in August, and the continued willingness of banks to lend, bolstered the housing market immediately after the referendum. But the latest indicators suggest that the market is slowing again, as the financial pressures on households' incomes intensify.
29 September 2017 Catalonia Will Not Become Independent this Weekend (Publication Centre)
Sunday's referendum on independence in Catalonia is a wild-card. The central government has taken drastic steps to ensure that a vote doesn't happen.
30 June. 2016 The Fed's Focus Will Return to the Wage Outlook, Unchanged by Brexit (Publication Centre)
We aren't materially changing our U.S. economic forecasts in the wake of the U.K.'s Brexit vote, though we have revised our financial forecasts. The net tightening of financial conditions in the U.S. since the referendum is just not big enough--indeed, it's nothing like big enough--to justify moving our economic forecasts.
27 July. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, but EM Rout is Hurting Germany (Publication Centre)
The July Eurozone PMI survey echoed the message from consumer sentiment earlier of a mild dip in momentum going into Q3. The composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.7, from 54.2 in June due mainly to a fall in the services index. Companies' own expectations for future business fell in the core, but the survey was conducted soon after the Greek referendum. Markit claims this didn't depress the data, but we are on alert for revisions to the headline and expectations next week, or a rebound next month.
29 June. 2015 Greek Exit Looms, but Don't Ignore Bullish Leading Indicators (Publication Centre)
Negotiations between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, greatly increasing the risk of a Grexit. The decision by Syriza to call a referendum on the bailout proposal next weekend, initially advocating rejection, forced the Eurogroup to abandon negotiations and focus on "damage control." Hope of a final retreat from the brink rests with the Greek parliament deciding not to hold the referendum, and accepting the proposal presented on Friday.
26 July 2018 The Climate Still isn't Right for Mortgage Lending to Recover (Publication Centre)
House purchase mortgage approvals by the main high street banks continued to recover in June, rising to a nine-month high of 40.5K, from 39.5K in May. June approvals, however, merely matched their postreferendum average, and the chances of a more substantial recovery are slim.
29 Apr. House Price Trend to Remain Firm, Despite Tax Hikes and Brexit Risk (Publication Centre)
Housing market data yesterday fostered the view that prices are vulnerable to a fall following April's increase in stamp duty--a transactions tax-- and before the E.U. referendum in June. Political uncertainty, however, has rarely had a pervasive or sustained impact on prices in the past.
29 June. 2015 Greece to Dominate Markets - Dollar, Treasuries to Benefit (Publication Centre)
The Eurozone is on the brink of its first exit this week after the ECB refused to offer incremental emergency liquidity to Greek banks, forcing the start of bank holiday through July 7--two days after next weekend's referendum--and beginning today. We have no doubt that if the banks were to open, they would soon be bust; bank runs have a habit of accelerating beyond the point of no return very quickly.
29 Feb. 2016 The Weaker Pound has not Transformed the Export Outlook (Publication Centre)
In theory, any hit to sentiment and business investment as the E.U. referendum nears could be offset by a better foreign trade performance, due to the Brexit-related depreciation of sterling. But not every cloud has a silver lining.
BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum
CBS NEWS - Is Greece headed for eurozone exit? (Media Centre)
Claus Vistesen comments on the aftermath of the Greek referendum
NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum
Bloomberg - Latvia Scandal Places ECB Under Spotlight as Bank Supervisor (Media Centre)
GUARDIAN - UK house price growth up in final set of figures before vote to leave EU (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices
BUSINESS INSIDER - One bleak chart shows how awful the next few years will be for the British economy (Media Centre)
Chief Eurozone Economist Samuel Tombs on Brexit
Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results
Question of the Week, WC 11th March (Media Centre)
Sunday Times - Pound's fall 'the worst devaluation in history' (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the devaluation of the GBP
Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December
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VATICAN CITY – Under new reporting procedures that are more in line with international accounting standards, the Holy See reported $1 billion in net assets that had never been reported before and in a consolidated form.
For 2014, however, all departments, bodies and foundations of the Holy See were required to report all assets – which totaled 1.1 billion euros, and liabilities – which totaled 222 million euros.
The Vatican City State budget, which includes the income-generating Vatican Museums and Vatican stamp and coin office, ended 2014 with a profit of more than 63.5 million euros – nearly double the previous year's surplus of 33 million euros.


The Universal Chenille headboard from the Aspire Furniture Collection is a handsome piece that is sure to improve the look of your master bedroom. Featuring a sophisticated abstract design that pairs well with both modern and traditional bedroom furnishings, this headboard will let you show off your own personal style as you create the bedroom of your dreams. It is handmade in the UK for assurance to quality and made from some of the finest materials to ensure long lasting durability.
The Universal Chenille headboard measures 24" in height. It is available in your choice of many different plush Chenille fabric finishes that range from simple neural tones to bold colours. The soft and plush look of this Chenille headboard will help you to create a warm and inviting environment in your bedroom. Instantly enhance the overall look of your bed and change the atmosphere in your bedroom when you add the Universal Chenille headboard to your décor.


text:
Q: What is and how to determine the calling context of an invoked method or function within another function? What is the calling context of an invoked method or function within another function?
In browsers, the default calling context is the window object. In various situations, how do I avoid this?
If a function is invoked -- for example, by theFunction(); -- within a containing function, is the invoked function's calling context the containing function?
In these two examples
(function ()
{
    something.initialize();
}());

and
(function ()
{
    something.initialize.call(this);
}());

..., is the calling context the same?

A: They are not the same. In the following I assume you were talking about this when you mentioned context.
In the first example, inside initialize, this will refer to something. In the second one, it will refer to the global object, which is window in browsers.

What this refers to is determined by how the function was called. There are five cases:

*

*func(), calling a function "standalone": this refers to the global object.

*new func(), calling a function as constructor method: this will refer to an empty object which inherits from func.prototype.

*obj.func(), calling a function as property of an object: this will refer to the object obj.

*func.apply(foo), func.call(foo), invoking a function with apply or call: this refers to the object passed as first argument.
ECMAScript 5 also introduced .bind() [MDN] which enables you to bind this to a certain object, without immediately calling the function.

Now you understand why in your second example, inside initialize, this will refer to window:
The outer function is called "standalone" (first case), so this inside of it will refer to window. Next you are passing this to call, which sets this inside initialize to window (fourth case).

Further reading:

*

*MDN - this, explains all I write above with some examples.

A: No, they are not the same. The first parameter to the call method sets the value of this inside that function; example 1's this should theoretically contain a reference to something; example 2's this corresponds to the this of your self executing function.

A: The environment available to a function when it is invoked is based on several things.

*

*the this binding which is different for the initialize method in your example

*the actual parameter bindings which are not and a binding for a special arguments object

*a binding for the function name, if any

*the environment chain at the time the function was created.  This is the "close" part of the term "closure".  A javascript function "closes over" all the variables that are in-scope when the function object comes into existence.

In your example, only 1 is affected by the choice to use call which has the effect of passing this instead of something as the this value in the method body.
The relevant part of the spec starts at section 10.4.3

The following steps are performed when control enters the execution context for function code contained in function object F, a caller provided thisArg, and a caller provided argumentsList: ...

A: Functions don't create context, unless it's a constructor (a function called with new).
In your second example the context is undefined (which gets transformed into the global object , window). In ES5 strict mode it won't be transformed into anything.
I recommend John Resig's interactive JavaScript tutorial on the topic of context.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


The town of Duncan, right on the old Chisholm Trail, will be celebrating the National Day of the Cowboy, July 27th at the historic Butterfield's Mercantile and Ballroom at 805 West Main. Activities include cowboy music and poetry through the day, a cowboy poetry contest and an evening showcase courtesy of the members of the International Western Music Association Oklahoma Chapter (IWMAOK). Cowboy fare will be on the menu at the Station Stop Cafe in Butterfield's. Local cowboy photographer Dee Dodson of Buckles and Bling Photography will display and have artwork for sale. It all kicks off at 10 a.m. The cowboy poetry contest will be at 2 p.m. open to tenderfoot and top hand, read or recited, with 3 trophy belt buckles and 5 trophies to the winners. The evening show, featuring some of the best cowboy singers and poets in Oklahoma starts at 6 p.m. For more information, become a judge or enter the cowboy poetry contest, contact Ron Secoy on Facebook, at rsecoy@wildblue.net or at 580 606-9574.


Welcome to Conchita's Cookbook. And yes, it's the secret cookbook from Abuela Conchita herself with the recipes she used to make for her friends and family! Here's where you put those Conchita Foods products in your pantry to good use. We've got recipes for you to whip up meals that will get them coming back for more time and time again. And that can be passed down from generation to generation, of course.


HDTC is a family orientated, not for profit organisation whose mission is to provide accessible trampoline and double-mini trampoline sports programs to the whole of Herefordshire. We do this by encouraging health, fitness and personal excellence in a safe and fun environment.
Trampolining is the perfect sport to develop confidence as well as improve balance, strength, co-ordination, agility and ariel awareness. The club follows the British Gymnastics Award scheme to develop fundamentals in shapes and landings required for a lifetime of enjoyment and technical progress. The award scheme is built around 15 levels offering a variety in skill development, with a certificate and badge award at each level.
Hereford Dynamix is the only trampoline club in Hereford to offer competitive opportunities to all with ages ranging from 5 years to adult.


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Bahá'í Reference Library
Authoritative Writings and Guidance
Messages of the Universal House of Justice
Selected Messages of the Universal House of Justice
Naw-Rúz 177
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© 2023 Bahá'í International Community
The Universal House of Justice
To the Bahá'ís of the World
Dearly loved Friends,
We feel compelled by current events to write to you at this time and not wait until Riḍván. As you will be all too aware, over recent weeks and months, an apprehensive world has been coming to terms with a rapidly evolving health crisis affecting the people in many countries, the consequences of which for society cannot yet be estimated with any certainty. We are sure that you, like us, have felt great concern for the well-being of humanity, especially for those who are most vulnerable. Seldom has it been more evident that society's collective strength is dependent on the unity it can manifest in action, from the international stage to the grassroots, and we know that you are giving your support to the essential efforts being made in this regard to protect the health and welfare of all.
Inevitably, the current situation will have an impact on the administration of the Cause of God in many places, and in every case the relevant National Spiritual Assembly will advise on the appropriate measures to be taken. In some countries this will include cancelling National Convention, with arrangements being made for the National Assembly to be elected by other means. Similar arrangements might also need to be made, in certain places, for the election of Local Spiritual Assemblies. However, in circumstances where even this proves unfeasible, it would be permissible this year for the existing membership of a Local or National Assembly to continue on into the next administrative year. Naturally, any National Assembly giving thought to approving such a step will seek the advice of the Counsellors at an early stage.
At a time of another crisis, 'Abdu'l‑Bahá offered these words of counsel: "In a day such as this, when the tempests of trials and tribulations have encompassed the world, and fear and trembling have agitated the planet, ye must rise above the horizon of firmness and steadfastness with illumined faces and radiant brows in such wise that, God willing, the gloom of fear and consternation may be entirely obliterated, and the light of assurance may dawn above the manifest horizon and shine resplendently." The world stands more and more in need of the hope and the strength of spirit that faith imparts. Beloved friends, you have of course long been occupied with the work of nurturing within groups of souls precisely the attributes that are required at this time: unity and fellow feeling, knowledge and understanding, a spirit of collective worship and common endeavour. Indeed, we have been struck by how efforts to reinforce these attributes have made communities especially resilient, even when faced with conditions that have necessarily limited their activities. Though having to adapt to new circumstances, the believers have used creative means to strengthen bonds of friendship, and to foster among themselves and those known to them spiritual consciousness and qualities of tranquillity, confidence, and reliance on God. The elevated conversations that have occurred as a result, whether remotely or in person, have been a source of comfort and inspiration to many. Such efforts on your part provide a valuable service at this hour when many souls are perplexed and dismayed, unsure of what will be. However difficult matters are at present, and however close to the limits of their endurance some sections of societies are brought, humanity will ultimately pass through this ordeal, and it will emerge on the other side with greater insight and with a deeper appreciation of its inherent oneness and interdependence.
This is not the moment in which to describe in any detail the accomplishments of the Bahá'í world over the past year, or the extraordinary progress made in multiplying community-building activities worldwide and strengthening programmes of growth, work which continues in earnest wherever circumstances permit. Suffice it to say that, four years into the current Plan, the tireless supporters of the Cause have brought the Faith of Bahá'u'lláh to the strongest position in which it has ever been in its history. Everything you have done and are now doing is preparing the global Bahá'í community for the next stage in the unfoldment of the Divine Plan.
For now, our thoughts and our prayers are focused on the health and well-being of all the friends of God and all those among whom you dwell. We pray earnestly, also, for the Almighty to bestow upon you assurance, stamina, and staunch spirits. May your minds be ever bent upon the needs of the communities to which you belong, the condition of the societies in which you live, and the welfare of the entire family of humanity, to whom you are all brothers and sisters. And in your quiet moments, when no course of action other than prayer seems possible, then we invite you to add your supplications to our own and ardently pray for the relief of suffering. We turn to these words of 'Abdu'l‑Bahá, Whose whole existence was an example of selfless commitment to the well-being of others:
O Thou Provider! Assist Thou these noble friends to win Thy good pleasure, and make them well-wishers of stranger and friend alike. Bring them into the world that abideth forever; grant them a portion of heavenly grace; cause them to be true Bahá'ís, sincerely of God; save them from outward semblances, and establish them firmly in the truth. Make them signs and tokens of the Kingdom, luminous stars above the horizons of this nether life. Make them to be a comfort and a solace to humankind and servants to the peace of the world.
[signed: The Universal House of Justice]
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text:
Business News of Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Government to set up Shea Development Board
Accra, April 6, GNA - Vice President John Dramani Mahama on Wednesday announced that the government, in collaboration with stakeholders in the Shea industry, would this year set up Ghana Shea Development Board to oversee the growth and development of the sector. The Board, he said, would be responsible for the recommendation of Shea standard prices and carry out effective research into the processing and marketing of the produce throughout the country. Vice President Mahama who announced this during the West African Shea Conference held in Accra said the Board would also educate the Shea picking and processing societies to become conscious of their rights and responsibilities in the industry.
The conference, which attracted participants from 27 African countries and partners from the United Kingdom, United States of America and Malaysia, would among other issues educate patrons on the improvement on the quality of their produce, sourcing of funds and how they could collaborate to come out with finished goods in their various countries.
Vice President Mahama said the government would provide motorized tri-cycles for the women to facilitate their movement and haulage of their shea fruits from the picking centres to the processing areas. He said the government would also set up two shea butter industries in the Upper East and Upper West regions to complement the one being constructed at Buipe in the Northern Region.
Mr Donald Teitelbaum, the US Ambassador in Ghana, called on all shea nuts producing countries in Africa to make maximum use of the opportunity to increase their shea production to make them global reserves of the produce.
He said although cocoa production started in the South American and Carribean countries, Ghana and the Ivory Coast are now the leading producing countries in the world and any loss of concentration could equally give the opportunity to other continents to take over in shea production.
Mr Teitelbaum called for the establishment of shea industries that would come out with finished products rather than concentrating on their current major role of exporting only shea raw materials. Mr Samuel Annan, the Deputy Minister for Trade and Industry, said Ghana earned over $30 million annually from shea which is also benefiting about two million people throughout the country. He said the government would make shea marketable and profitable to encourage many more Ghanaians to participate in its processing and production.
Madam Eugenia Akwetey, Chief Executive Office of Shea Alliance, said her outfit would in the next years create a sustainable, dynamic and competitive industry by strengthening advocacy and research components in the continent. 06 April 11
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text:
Remembering when the Soviet Union dropped by Minnesota for tea
The dining room was filled with TV cameras and the whole world was watching as a Minneapolis family served as host.
By Lee Svitak Dean Star Tribune
October 10, 2019 — 8:45am
Three years after President Ronald Reagan directed his comments about the Berlin Wall to the Soviet Union — "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" — its president, Mikhail Gorbachev, and his wife, Raisa, visited Minnesota, at the behest of Gov. Rudy Perpich, to discuss trade.
On June 3, 1990, Gorbachev and his wife were met in the Twin Cities with massive crowds yelling "Gorby, Gorby!" on a cold, 42-degree summer visit that lasted almost seven hours.
While Mikhail was busy talking with business representatives, Raisa headed out for other activities — including a stop at a Snyder's drugstore, a Mexican deli (Pepito's) and a visit to the south Minneapolis home of Steve and Karen Watson, he an art teacher and she a part-time obstetrics nurse.
Rick Sennott
Raisa Gorbachev holds 13-year-old Lisa Watson's hand.
Raisa had specific requirements for the type of family she wanted to see: The family had to have at least three children and a dog, and be part of a cultural exchange, Steve Watson later told MPR. They had 10 days to prepare for the event.
The Watsons had four kids and their eldest daughter had visited the Soviet Union a year earlier as part of a production by the Children's Theatre Company of "Rembrandt Takes a Walk."
The culinary details were chronicled in two stories by Taste.
When Raisa sat down with the Watsons, she brought up what must be the universal question among working parents, regardless of the decade or country:
"How do you get dinner on the table?"
It was a question that took Karen by surprise. She told the first lady, as well as the live television audience that was along for the ride, that she had five or six 30-minute meals that she regularly served.
Hours later — to no food writer's surprise — viewers began calling the Taste office to find out what those quick meals were.
Pool photo
Raisa Gorbachev touring Snyder Drugs at 46th & Nicolett.
In an interview, Karen noted that their diet was anything but typical, given that they had adopted a modified macrobiotic diet that depended on whole grains and nonmeat forms of protein. "We eat a lot of rice, lentils and beans," she told Taste.
The Watsons also avoided processed and refined foods. They did not use white sugar and avoided dairy products, though they made certain that their children had milk.
"We've become better label readers," said Karen, who noted that theirs was an economical diet that cost about $100 a week for their family of six.
Her quick meals included tortillas with refried beans, commercially prepared spaghetti sauce (a no-sugar brand) served with lupini pasta and tofu-burgers, or what the Watsons call "neatballs" (tofu formed into the shape of meatballs).
Stir-fried vegetables, lentils and homemade pizza (with tofu replacing some of the traditional mozzarella cheese) were part of the mix, as was a brown rice recipe that Karen said was life changing.
As for those treats that the Watsons served Raisa, they included two plates of cookies, one set made with sugar, and the other using sugar alternatives, in deference to the family's preference for avoiding refined sugar.
The sugar plate included traditional chocolate-chip cookies made from the directions on the back of the chocolate-chip bag (think Toll House) and oatmeal peanut-butter cookies.
The nonsugar plate included macaroons and a version of the traditional Rice Krispies bar using crispy brown rice. (Taste offered recipes of both.)
Raisa did sample a macaroon, but the KGB would not allow her to be filmed while she ate it.
Eighteen months later, the Soviet Union collapsed when Gorbachev resigned and Boris Yeltsin succeeded him as president in December 1991.
Lee Svitak Dean is food editor at the Star Tribune. She has written about food since 1982 and was formerly a copy editor. As an editor who also writes for the Taste food section, she handles content related to home cooking, restaurants, wine, beer and spirits, nutrition and food trends.
lee.dean@startribune.com 612-673-1749 StribTaste


We offer you a centre site, cable-TV, shower and WC in all rooms, refrigerator, lounge, breakfast, lawn for sunbathing, parking places in front of the house.
2 to 0 days before booked arrival: 90% cancellation charge.
Extra charge for short overnight stays (1-3 days): € 5,- per person and night.
We request for payment in cash.
The charging happen according to the Austrian Hotel Regulations (ÖHVB). The place of jurisdiction is Schladming.


Home/Civics/FDR on Educational Inequity in 1938. Could've Been Written Today.
FDR on Educational Inequity in 1938. Could've Been Written Today.
Here is where the whole problem of education ties in definitely with the natural resources of the country, ties in with the economic picture of the individual community or state. We all know that the best of schools are, in most cases, located in those communities which can afford to spend the most money on them—the most money for adequate teachers' salaries, for modern buildings and modern equipment of all kinds. And we know too that the weakest educational link in our national system lies in those communities which have the lowest taxable values, and, therefore, the smallest per capita tax receipts and, therefore, the lowest teachers' salaries and most inadequate buildings and equipment. We do not blame these latter communities. They want better educational facilities, but simply have not enough money to pay the cost.


Aggstein Castle (Burgruine Aggstein) is located on a mountaintop by the meandering Danube River in Austria. I was delighted, when Johnna asked me to shoot their wedding at this beautiful location. The castle is in a picturesque Austrian valley called Wachau, a prominent tourist destination of Lower Austria.
It was a truly an international wedding: Johnna is from New Jersey, while Daniel is Austrian. Thus, even the guest were a mixture of both countries, which added to the unique location. After getting ready in Hotel Residenz Wachau in Aggsbach Dorf, the ceremony took place outdoors, among the stony walls of the castle dating back to the 12th century. Short group and portrait photography sessions ensued, then we moved inside the beautiful, authentic reception area. The evening was spent in great mood and the dance floor was busy all night.
Since I photographed the wedding, I didn't have much time to test the spectacular 4K film capabilities of my new camera, though I had some time to capture some of the best moments on the dance floor, which you van view here.


text:
require 'spec_helper'

describe Presence::Logger do
  let(:level) { ::Logger::INFO }
  let(:io) { StringIO.new }
  let(:log) {
    log = ::Logger.new(io)
    log.level = level
    log.formatter = proc do |severity, datetime, progname, msg|
      "#{msg}\n"
    end
    log
  }
  let(:logger) { Presence::Logger.new(log) }

  context 'with no ::Logger specified' do
    let(:log) { nil }

    it 'logs warnings to stdout by default' do
      result = capture_stdout do |variable|
        logger.log.warn('Run, baby, run!')
      end
      result.should == "Run, baby, run!\n"
    end

    it 'does not log info by default' do
      result = capture_stdout do |variable|
        logger.log.info('Run, baby, run!')
      end
      result.should == ''
    end
  end

  context 'with DEBUG logging' do
    let(:level) { ::Logger::DEBUG }

    it 'logs ip_scanned events' do
      logger.ip_scanned('10.0.1.1', 'sudo arping', 'nada')
      io.string.should == " - Checked 10.0.1.1 with sudo arping\n    nada\n"
    end

    it 'logs localhost_found events' do
      logger.localhost_found('10.0.1.1', 'AA:BB:CC:DD:EE:FF')
      io.string.should == " * Found localhost!\n"
    end

    it 'logs mac_found events' do
      logger.mac_found('10.0.1.1', 'aa:bb:cc:dd:ee:ff')
      io.string.should == " * Found aa:bb:cc:dd:ee:ff at 10.0.1.1\n"
    end

    it 'logs mac_not_found events' do
      logger.mac_not_found('10.0.1.1')
      io.string.should == " * No MAC found at 10.0.1.1\n"
    end

    it 'logs unknown events' do
      logger.respond_to?(:miracle_occurred).should be_true
      logger.miracle_occurred('256.256.256.256', 'GG:GG:GG:GG:GG:GG', 49)
      io.string.should == "miracle_occurred: [\"256.256.256.256\", \"GG:GG:GG:GG:GG:GG\", 49]\n"
    end

  end

  context 'with INFO logging' do
    let(:level) { ::Logger::INFO }

    it 'logs listener_registered events' do
      logger.listener_registered(logger, 'Scanner')
      io.string.should == "Registered listener: <Presence::Logger> for: Scanner\n"
    end

    it 'logs scan_started events' do
      logger.scan_started('10.0.1', (1..255))
      io.string.should == "Scanning range: 10.0.1.1 to 10.0.1.255\n"
    end

    it 'logs scan_finished events' do
      logger.scan_finished('10.0.1', (1..255))
      io.string.should == "Scan finished.\n"
    end

    it 'does not log ip_scanned events' do
      logger.ip_scanned('10.0.1.1', 'sudo arping', 'nada')
      io.string.should == ''
    end

    it 'does not log localhost_found events' do
      logger.localhost_found('10.0.1.1', 'aa:bb:cc:dd:ee:ff')
      io.string.should == ''
    end

    it 'does not log mac_found events' do
      logger.mac_found('10.0.1.1', 'aa:bb:cc:dd:ee:ff')
      io.string.should == ''
    end

    it 'does not log mac_not_found events' do
      logger.mac_not_found('10.0.1.1')
      io.string.should == ''
    end
  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Garrett does his three months of mission work in countries in East Africa, primarily Kenya, seeking to help develop preachers, elders, and others to be leaders in the church. He also seeks to plant new churches as well as strengthen existing churches. As he moves from place to place, he does Bible studies with individuals or small groups as he works with one congregation at a time. During his time he moves around to assist as many different congregations and individuals as possible. He also conducts seminars for preachers to help them with sermon preparation and the work they need to do to build up their congregation.
Over a period of two years, for example, Garrett worked closely with twelve men. One of these men brought a man from his own congregation for Garett to help. After a year, this man planted a new congregation close to his home. While it is small, it has great potential. In another case, Garrett has found several people who are close to each other who have registered for World Bible School. While their knowledge of the Bible is minimal, they want to know more. Garrett trained one of these men for two years so that he, in turn, can go and teach others. He places the emphasis on working with leaders and their congregations at the same time in order to raise the knowledge of everyone together. Thus, they all, in turn, can be the ones who teach others. Garrett's plan is for the local people to teach and make preachers and disciple. He comes to bring tools and resources and study helps.
That this South Carolina church supports a man to work in evangelism at home and abroad is good news.


text:
Home Business 'If Citizens Lose Confidence in the Judicial System, They Take Law in...
'If Citizens Lose Confidence in the Judicial System, They Take Law in Their Own Hands'
Ishmael F. Menkor
From right: Commerce Min. Wilson Tarpeh, House Speaker Bhofal Chambers and Finance Minister Tweah at the Business Climate Forum in Ganta
Says Cllr Marvey
A senior associate at the Heritage Partners & Associates, Inc, Cllr. Mark M. M. Marvey, says the slowness of due process in the country contributes to some citizens taking the law into their own hands.
Speaking at the close of a two-day "Business Climate Forum" in Ganta on Saturday, February 2, he said, "If citizens lose confidence in the judicial system, they take the law into their own hands."
Cllr. Marvey, who spoke on the topic, "Enforcing Contracts," said one of the key components in enforcing contracts is when they are adjudicated through the court of justice.
However, he said he has observed a lot of lapses in the adjudication component, including the timely determination of matters, the quality of the decision and the objectivities of the judges, as well as the ethical engagement of the lawyers.
He said these factors, among other things, are key components in determining a fair outcome of a case in court.
Cllr. Marvey noted that some decisions of the court have undermined the interest of investors in the country, because they did not uphold the long-standing precedent, and neither did they inspire public confidence in the judiciary.
Cllr. Mark Marvey giving a presentation at the forum
"The temptation of having political influence, such as interference from the legislature, the executive and powerful people in society, undermines the court's decisions," he said.
"If the people lack faith or trust in the capability of the court to deliver fair judgment arisen from a business or property rights, the aggrieved on the other hand will take the law into their own hands," he said.
He said there is a need for the judiciary to be independent in the discharge of its functions and judges who are adequately trained and provided with adequate support can be able to over the influence from outside the judiciary.
Cllr. Marvey said attention is needed to ensure that the judiciary can be independent, that lawyers can play their roles in an ethical manner, that the court can adequately provide resources so that it can be effective in delivering justice in a timely fashion.
He also noted that it takes 30 days for a case to be filed and served, 730 days for trial and obtain a judgment and 540 days to enforce the judgment, something he said was not appropriate for investors or the business environment.
The occasion was organized by the Business Climate Working Group, with the theme, "resolving challenges to getting credit, resolving insolvency and enforcing the contract."
The forum brought together the three branches of government and experts from the World Bank, the Swedish Embassy and the Liberia Bankers Association, headed by Mr. John Davies, among others.
The Business Climate Forum brought together the three branches of government, experts from the World Bank, the Swedish Embassy and the Liberia Bankers Association, among others.
House Speaker Bhofal Chambers and Senator Prince Y. Johnson were present while a statement from the Chief Justice in appreciation of the occasion was read.
Ministers Samuel Tweah of Ministry of Finance, Planning and Development, and Prof Wilson Tarpeh, Ministry of Commerce and Industry were also in attendance.
Min. Tweah in his opening statement underscored the importance of the judiciary in the process of enforcing contracts. He also told the Bankers Association and other stakeholders that the forum was intended to clarify what the problems are and then come up with solutions.
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