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Portfolios Explained
Perry's Books
December Performance Report
Uncategorized / By Bryan Thompson
Even the good equity performance pales next to futures for 2014, proving that economic forecasts are not as good as diversification. Was it possible to predict the drop in oil prices? Even with pundits talking about a strong dollar, no one could put a time frame on it. Then there's sugar, a drop from 22 cents to nearly 14 cents, about 28% from the first of the year. With a contract value of more than $16,000 and margin of $800 (5%), that's a big drop for the trend followers. In 2008, the futures industry had their best year by shorting equity index markets and buying interest rates, but 2014 did not have a crisis, so these returns are appreciated, but they were truly unexpected.
Equities were more complicated, upsetting algorithmic trading programs with the sharp drop in October, causing most systems to go on the defensive, including ours. The results were more evident in the ETF programs, which do not have the flexibility of choosing stocks that might remain strong during a short panic attack. We should also note that the internals of the stocks that we track are showing lethargic movement, as seen by the Trend Strength Index (further below).
With all that, the three major ETFs, SPY, QQQ, and IWM, averaged about 12% last year. Both of our Trend stock portfolios beat the SPY and the averages, although the ETF program did not. While the stock market was having a sustain rally futures were not stellar. The chart below shows how all the portfolios fared for 2014. The futures returns dwarf everything else.
So, what do we expect for 2015? If we listen to the news, we expect the bull market to continue for another five years. That's fine with us because we take only the long trades in the equity markets. But is it realistic? We seem to forget that the unexpected event is a periodic occurrence in all markets. It's easy to explain afterwards, a specialty of the business news shows, but not likely to be predicted. The only choice for an investor is to diversify, preferably into something algorithmic, but not to over-diversify. Spreading an investment over too many markets, or too many strategies, is more than diminishing returns, it may result in underperformance. Then choose carefully, choose wisely, stay engaged by monitoring the results, and remember that even the best traders can have a disappointing record when it comes to prediction. With our eyes wide open – it's a new year.
Trend Strength Index
The Trend Strength Index is our measure of market strength. Our Trend strategy is a composite of many trends, medium term to slow applied to about 250 stocks. When combined, these determine the position size of the current trade. If the faster trends are down but the slower one up, then the position size might be zero. The appearance is that trend positions scale in and out based on the strength of the trend. The Trend Strength Index appears at the bottom of the Trend Stocks All Signals report each day. We've tracked it from the beginning of 2014, and the chart below compares it with the SPY. TSI is the Trend Strength Index and SPY is the SPDR ETF.TSI values about zero indicate a positive trend. The range of the TSI is +1 to –1.
Even while the stock market struggles higher, the Trend Strength Index has stalled out at 30, still showing a weak sign of divergence. Yes, we've seen this before and the market continues higher. Timing is not easy, but there seems to be underlying weakness in the market that requires caution. Fundamental forecasts are all modest for 2015, with the best just over 10%. In a market where traders are carefully watching for signs of weakness, we are likely to see another sharp sell-off. It seems unlikely that each sell-off will have such a dramatic recovery.
We offer this Index for those investors who select their own trades from the All Signals Report rather than following our sample portfolios. The daily Trend Strength Index values are available to subscribers.
OVERVIEW OF DECEMBER
From the bar chart shown earlier, overall performance for December was very good and similar to the 2014 total performance. The smaller, more aggressive stock portfolio returned over 20% for the year, the best of all the equity portfolios. The Weekly Stock portfolios were more consistent, with both small and large portfolios showing nearly the same 17% returns. ETFs have mixed profitability for the year.
The Divergence program for equities posted respectable 5.6% and 7.5% returns for the year, while the Timing program had losses in all three portfolios. The Timing program buys weaker stocks and can be very profitable, but it also has greater risk than trading the trend. For most investors, the Timing program offers excellent diversification that can smooth out portfolio returns. We expect it to have a disappointing year from time to time.
Futures, on the other hand, posted the best returns since 2008, when shorting the equity index markets and buying interest rates produced another 50% year. These are the years when investors should think carefully about the alternative investment space. Most futures programs, as shown by Newedge, have had a sideways three years. During that time, investors drift away from them in favor of the equity markets that keep rising. We admit, it is difficult to be enthusiastic about an investment that takes a lot of money and goes nowhere. But then we have the notable exceptions of 2008 and 2014. A 50% return, spread back across the past three years is 12.5% per year, very acceptable. It has also been shown that the best years in futures are when stocks are doing badly. The fact that both returned gains in 2014 is an unusual bonus. The chart below shows that both the SPY and IWM have reached new highs but the QQQ is still hovering below its previous high. Analysts have always said that a shift to the small caps is a sign of investor confidence. We'll see.
STRONGEST & WEAKEST SECTORS
There are two ways to view sector rotation, trade the strongest expecting them to stay strong, or trade the weakest expecting the business cycle to rotate them to the top. We have both. The Trend Rotation trades the strongest and the Timing Rotation trades the weakest. The Trend program may hold positions for a long time, so it's possible for two ETFs to be in both programs. For example, XOP (Oil and Gas) can be in a long-term uptrend, but a short-term oversold situation.
The Trend Sector ETF program buys the strongest sectors of the SPDRs. This month the program removed Preferred Stocks (PFF), and added Financials (XLF) and Retail (XRT).
Current positions are: Preferred stocks (PFF), *Heath Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Vanguard Reits (VNQ), and Retail (XRT).
The Timing Rotation program (buy low) exited Financials (XLF), and entered Preferred Stocks (PFF), Energy (XLE), and Technology (XLK). There is no doubt that energy is oversold, so now it's a matter of timing.
Current positions are: Preferred (PFF), Energy (XLE), Technology (XLK), Staples (XLP), and *Health Care (XLV).
*Note that Health Care is in both programs, indicating that it has been very strong but had a pullback in October that allowed it to be bought and held by the Timing Rotation program as still undervalued.
A Standing Note on Short Sales
Note that the "All Signals" reports show short sales in stocks and ETFs, even though short positions are not executed in the portfolios. Our review of using inverse ETFs to hedge stocks during a decline showed that downturns in the stock market are most often short-lived and it is difficult to capture those moves with trend systems. This confirms our approach to the Timing systems, which hedges up to 50% of the long stock risk using multiple trends. In the long run, returns from the hedges are net losses; however, during 2008 the gains were welcomed and reduced losses. In any correction we prefer paying for risk insurance, even without the expectation of a net gain.
Portfolio Methodology in Brief
All of the programs, stocks, ETFs, and futures, use the same basic portfolio technology. They all exploit the persistence of performance, that is, they seek those markets with good long-term and short-term returns, rank them, then choose the best, subject to liquidity, an existing current signal, with limitations on how many can be chosen from each sector. If there are not enough stocks or futures markets that satisfy all the conditions, then the portfolio holds fewer assets. In general, these portfolios are high beta, showing higher returns and higher risk, but have had a history of consistently out-performing the broad market index in all traditional measures.
PERFORMANCE BY GROUP
NOTE that the charts show below represent performance "tracking," that is, the oldest results are simulated but the newer returns are the systematic daily performance added day by day. Any changes to the strategies do not affect the past performance, unless noted.
Groups DE1 and WE1: Daily and Weekly Trend Program for Stocks and ETFs
The Trend program seeks long-term directional changes in markets and the portfolios choose stocks and ETFs that have realized profitable performance over many years combined with good short-term returns.
Small gains for stocks, small losses for ETFs were still better than the benchmark SPY performance for December. For the year, the aggressive 10 stock portfolio finish up more than 20% and the larger 30 stock portfolio up 13%, both very much in line with the 12 year average returns. The ETF program, which attempts to select the strongest sectors, finished the year up over 5%. These returns are particularly good if you consider the defensive action necessary when the market sold off sharply in October. It is always easy to say in retrospect that the fast recovery means that trading programs should have been fully committed again, but that's not realistic. We should remember that the index market recovered all its losses from the 2008 subprime crisis, but many individual investors reduced their positions during 2008 and never saw the recovery. Theory and reality often diverge.
The Weekly Trend Program performed better than the Daily Program in stocks, finishing the year up about 17% in both smaller and larger portfolios. The ETFs did not fare as well, both portfolios up for December but slightly down on the year. We need to point out that weekly trading signals have both advantages and disadvantages. During the October sell-off and rally it did better than the daily program by holding many of the positions. On the other hand, weekly signals will be late for a sell-off that continues. In the long run, equity markets are very noisy, and do not continue in one direction long without a correction. If you look at our sector performance for the Trend program using futures, you will see that the equity index sector is one of the few that did not post large profits in 2014. We attribute that to the underlying level of noise (volatility) in those markets.
Group DE2: Divergence Program for Stocks and ETFs
The Divergence program looks for patterns where price and momentum diverge, then takes a position in anticipation of the pattern resolving itself in a predictable direction, often the way prices had moved before the period of uncertainty.
The Divergence program was profitable for the year, but did not reach its average returns. It does offer excellent diversification because it does not track the trend, so its benefit in a portfolio is greater than the returns. All three portfolios were positive for the year. One reason for lower performance is due to lower exposure. It is not always possible to find enough divergent signals, even out of the large set of stocks that we track for this program. Therefore, the risk is also lower. This is especially true for the ETF program, which draws from a much smaller set of about 70 ETFs. Still, the ETF returns have moved steadily higher on low risk.
Group DE3: Timing Program for Stocks and ETF Rotation
The Timing program is a relative-value arbitrage, taking advantage of undervalued stocks relative to its index. Its primary advantage is that it does not depend on market direction for profits, although these portfolios are long-only because they are most often used in retirement accounts. When the broad market index turns down this program hedges part of the portfolio risk. The ETF Rotation program buys undervalued sectors, expecting them to outperform the other sectors over the short-term.
The Timing Program buys undervalued stocks so that it will buy the weakest even in a declining market until that stock shows that it is not expected to rally. Risk is protected with an absolute stop of 15% and also by hedging the broad index.
The Timing program is our one disappointment this year, returning losses in all portfolios. A downturn in the SPY generated a hedge position in December, which then dampened performance when the market failed to continue lower. At the very end of December we set one leg of a hedge in QQQ. While we hope that stocks rally and we take a small loss in this hedge, risk protection is an integral part of the Timing program. During a sustained downturn it will hold losses to a minimum compared to other program.
One of the issues with algorithmic trading is that it can be frustrating when it's not making money, and requires discipline to consistently follow the trading signals. It is not possible to predict when the system will turn and returns will improve, and not possible to select when to trade and when not to trade. Case in point is the Trend Futures program this year. No one would have expected a 50% return after three years of sideways performance for the Industry.
FUTURES PROGRAMS
We've been amazed at the consistency of the futures performance all year, and those returns continued into December, finishing the year 40% to 55% higher for the daily program and 42% to 60% higher for the weekly program. We admit that it's not likely to continue, but we would have said that earlier in the year as well.
Looking at the sector returns for the Trend program below, only Equity Index shows a loss. That's actually consistent with the long-term performance of equity futures. While they serve as excellent diversification and occasionally have a good positive run (remember the short positions of 2008?), they have too much noise for a trend program to identify turns in a timely fashion. Still, a small loss in equities during 2014 did little to dampen overall performance.
We can see that interest rates were profitable due to the Fed driving yields lower all year, FX due to a stronger dollar, energy because of a major drop in oil prices, metals because of the continued slide in gold (also due to the strength in the US dollar and weak oil), and ags because of continued lower prices. It is only when long trends occur in (nearly) all sectors that the program can post such high returns.
DF2 Divergence Program
The Divergence program was mixed for the year, with the larger portfolios doing well, but the smallest posting a net loss. In terms of sectors, the chart below shows that gains were limited to bonds and ags. Again we see the equity index markets posting the largest loss.
Groups DF1 and WF1: Daily and Weekly Trend Programs for Futures
Futures allow both high leverage and true diversification. The larger portfolios, such as $1million, are diversified into both commodities and world index and interest rate markets, in addition to foreign exchange. Its performance is not expected to track the U.S. stock market and is a hedge in every sense because it is uncorrelated. As the portfolio becomes more diversified its returns are more stable.
The leverage available in futures markets allows us to manage the risk in the portfolio, something not possible to the same degree with stocks. This portfolio targets 14% volatility. Investors interested in lower leverage can simply scale all positions equally in proportion to their volatility preference. Note that these portfolios do not trade Asian futures, which we believe are more difficult for U.S. investors to execute.
Using the same strategy and portfolio logic, the Weekly Trend Program for Futures has the added smoothing resulting from looking only at Friday prices. While it will show a larger loss when the trend actually turns, most price moves are varying degrees of noise which this method can overlook.
Please read the new report describing our revised portfolio allocation methodology. It can be found in the drop-down menu under "Articles."
We are not the only futures program doing well. Newedge shows that the CTA index rose more than 15% with trend followers up 19% for 2014. The BTOP 50 represents the top 50 CTAs, with an average of 12.4%.
The charts below show the daily and weekly Trend program performance. We recognize that the extreme move that we see for 2014 won't be sustained, but we have no way of knowing when it will end. The advantage of an algorithmic system is that it will exit when the trend turns and will not make excuses for holding the positions "just in case" it rallies again.
Group DF2: Daily Divergence Portfolio for Futures
The Divergence program did well in the larger portfolio and maintains a nice upward trend in equity. It may be overlooked this year as the Trend program continues to post outstanding returns, but it is a sound program on its own. We'll revisit this as the year takes shape.
Copyright 2014-Kaufman Signals December Performance Report-All Rights Reserved
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MERCHANDISE / BUY TICKETS
Author: Mark Neilson
A stunning body shot seals victory for Swindon boxer Ryan Martin in Commonwealth welterweight title eliminator at Neilson Boxing's Fight Town 3 show at the Oasis Leisure Centre
Posted on March 3, 2020 by Mark Neilson
A BRUTAL body shot catapulted Swindon boxer Ryan Martin closer to a crack at the Commonwealth welterweight crown with a stunning victory at the Oasis Leisure Centre on Saturday night. Taking on South Africa national champion Mziwoxolo Ndwayana in front of a home crowd on the Neilson Boxing-promoted Fight Town 3 show, Martin needed just […]
Swindon boxer Ryan Martin faces South African South African Mziwoxolo Ndwayana in eliminator for Commonwealth welterweight title tonight
RYAN Martin has labelled tonight's Commonwealth welterweight title eliminator against South African Mziwoxolo Ndwayana as the most important fight of his career. Swindon boxer Martin has had big bouts previously, with his tilts at the WBC youth world title and IBO continental crown in 2017 both ending in disappointment after a pair of unanimous decision […]
Sam 'Sniper' Smith will headline Fight Town 3 in November when he fights Germaine Brown for the Southern Area Title
Posted on October 26, 2019 by Mark Neilson
PROMOTER Mark Neilson hopes Swindon-based boxer Sam 'Sniper' Smith can win the Southern Area super-middleweight title in front of a home crowd after confirming the fight will headline his next show in November.
Fight Town 2 – backed by Neilson Boxing and trainer Paddy Fitzpatrick's Trifecta group – proved a success at the Oasis Leisure Centre last month, and plans have already started for event three in the series.
Smith, who trains at Fitzpatrick's Ferndale Road Gym, was due to fight Anthony Fox for the Southern Area crown back on Neilson's previous show, only for his opponent to pull out due to injury.
Germaine Brown has now been drafted in to face Smith for the belt at Fight Town 3 at the Oasis on November 30.
Neilson hopes to see Smith make the most of his chance, knowing it could put him in the window for further prizes down the line.
"It is great to have this fight as the main event on our next show," said Neilson.
"We know there are a lot of titles around these days but the Southern Area title is a credible title and it is a stepping stone towards the English and British titles.
"If you win a Southern Area title, you move swiftly up the rankings and are in the mix for bigger things.
"Sam has been doing his business and waiting for his opportunity – and he has got that now."
Another action-packed card is being planned for Fight Town 3, with home favourites Ryan Martin and Luke Watkins in line to feature.
Bec Connolly has already been confirmed for a high-profile contest and she will face Rachel Ball in an eliminator for the Commonwealth super-featherweight title.
As for Smith, Neilson is glad to see patience pay off for the super-middleweight, although the promoter expects Brown to provide stiff opposition with a belt on the line.
"Sam was devastated before our last show because he was fight-ready for Anthony Fox," said Neilson.
"He ended up doing a six-rounder instead against a guy who had a losing record.
"It was difficult to get up for that, but in fairness, he had a job to do and he did it.
"We have been liaising with the British Boxing Board to try to find a similar about, and we have found Germaine Brown.
"He is 7-0, an unbeaten ex-amateur with a good pedigree
"We knew Anthony Fox would be a tough proposition and I think everyone will look at Germaine Brown and think Sam has his hands full again.
"He can bang a bit and is a dangerous proposition – he knocked his last two opponents out.
"But Sam is looking forward to it and hopefully he can bring the Southern Area title back to Swindon."
Swindon boxing coach Paddy Fitzpatrick provides an update on star fighter Luke 'Duke' Watkins
PADDY Fitzpatrick expects star cruiserweight Luke 'Duke' Watkins' opportunities to open up in the coming months, following Lawrence Okolie's decision to vacate the British title.
Watkins has fought twice since losing his British Commonwealth Cruiser Title to Okolie in June of last year.
The 29-year-old Swindon talent lost to Isaac Chamberlain on points at the Copper Box Arena in October 2018 before he defeated Ossie Jervier on Mark Neilson's Fight Town I card in April.
Okolie's decision to vacate the British title – which he won in September 2018 when beating Matty Askin at London's Wembley Stadium – has granted Watkins a chance to return to the big time.
It follows a period of frustration for Swindon's big hitter, particularly after he lost out on an appearance at September's Fight Town II card when Watkins' unnamed opponent withdrew from the fight at the 11th hour.
A return to the ring is scheduled for Watkins on Neilson's Fight Town III card, though, which takes place on November 30.
And Fitzpatrick expects his star fighter to kick on after his latest bout – and hasn't ruled out the chance of a title fight in the short future. He said: "Luke's opportunities are about to open up now.
"When you have a guy that has the British and Commonwealth titles, every other fighter below is simply waiting for an opportunity. If you're not in the title holder's plans, you've got to keep yourself busy or hold your breath. The Commonwealth will become vacant soon too – before Christmas I would've thought.
I think a lot of movement will occur at cruiserweight level over the next couple of months and I expect Duke to be a part of that. Two months ago, I told Duke his best plan is to be patient.
By March, he'll be back contesting significant fights in Britain. Until then, we have to keep him busy."
Fitzpatrick underlined his belief that Watkins is far from the type of fighter that will allow himself to be frustrated by events that are out of his control.
The Ferndale-road based coach said Watkins' eyes are – for now – firmly focused on his reappearance to the ring on
November 30.
He added: "You see it all the time – opponents pulling out and a last-minute change having to take place.
"It's gut-wrenching for Luke (Watkins), but what can you do. He can either allow himself to implode, or he can realise that this is what can happen and he's just got to get on with it.
"He'll headline on November 30."
Swindon boxer Kelly Morgan hopeful over injury comeback
Posted on July 25, 2017 by Mark Neilson
KELLY Morgan will make her long-awaited return to boxing in September – providing her operation goes to plan.
The WBC Silver middleweight champion has not fought since September last year and was diagnosed with fourth nerve palsy at the end of February.
The injury, which was causing Morgan to have permanent double vision, put her dreams of a world title shot against super-middleweight champion Nikki Adler, who will now defend her WBC belt against two-time Olympic champion Claressa Shields next month, on hold.
But 37-year-old Morgan will have keyhole surgery on August 8 to release the muscle, with the hope that she can start sparring again two weeks later.
Should it all go to plan, then the 2002 Commonwealth Games javelin bronze medallist will return in a six-round contest on September 23 at the Play Football Arena on a Neilson Boxing show.
Morgan's trainer and manager Richard Farnan told the Advertiser: "At the moment, everything hinges on August 8.
"It is a relatively unobtrusive operation where they just release the muscle and, we are told, by the consultant, that she should be able to get back into the ring two weeks later.
"If it goes to plan then Kelly will have a six-rounder in September, probably another before the end of the year and then we can start looking at who we can fight for a world title."
Although frustrated at missing out on a fight with Adler this year, Farnan is hopeful that Morgan will still get her chance to fight for the WBC belt.
However, he believes the biggest threat to the division comes from Hartlepool's Savannah Marshall, who is promoted by Mayweather Promotions and will make her debut on the undercard of Floyd Mayweather's clash with UFC star Conor McGregor.
"I think that the Claressa Shields-Nikki Adler fight is 50-50, but I fancy Kelly to beat both of them," Farnan said.
"With Savannah coming into the mix now – she is probably the most dangerous of the lot. Does Mayweather look to fast track her? I don't know.
"There are four big names in the super-middleweight division with Kelly, Claressa, Nikki and Savannah and I think at some point they will all fight each other."
Source: Michael Reeves http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/sport/15401872.BOXING__Kelly_hopeful_over_comeback/
Boxing promoters throw their weight behind Swindon mental health project
Posted on March 31, 2017 by Mark Neilson
Boxing promoters Mark and Tony Neilson are backing mental health charity Phoenix Enterprises – choosing the Swindon project as their charity of choice for their upcoming show.
The brothers will be staging their boxing event – 'The Homecoming' on Saturday April 15, headlined by No 5 ranked British Welterweight Tamuka 'Too Much' Mucha vs Rob Hunt at the PlayFootball Area in Bramble Road. And proceeds will be donated to the charity.
Phoenix Enterprises, based in a unit on the Groundwell Industrial Estate, works with adults experiencing short or long-term mental health problems, ranging from depression to autism, and also people with learning difficulties, physical disabilities and people who are struggling to return to work.
Mark said: "Mental health is a major issue and there have been some big boxing names such as Frank Bruno, Ricky Hatton and more recently Tyson Fury who have openly discussed their on-going battles with depression so this is a cause close to our hearts and those of the boxing fraternity."
Tony added: "We've raised many thousands over the years for good causes and wanted to support a local charity again. Phoenix is completely self-funded and we hope to raise some much-needed money on the night."
Karen Hyde, service user liaison manager for the charity, which has been running for 15 years, explained: "This support is really valuable for us as we don't get any funding other than the support of the businesses who use our services. The work that is carried out here is really important for those people who might struggle to get into work. It can give them back the confidence to allow them to go and find a job elsewhere and for others it can provide that sense of community that they might not otherwise have."
Also fighting on the night will be the experienced Danny Butler (26-6), a former English champion and IBO and WBO European title challenger. Danny hopes that his move to Middleweight will bring him further success and see him challenge for the British Title later in the year.
In a stacked undercard, exciting Gloucester prospect, Riiddy Ennis-Brown, known as Riiddy Riival to his growing fan base, will face a tough Eastern European over six rounds as he works towards a shot at the English Title.
Other supporting bouts full of undefeated prospects included Wayne Ingram (2-0), Kane Stewart (5-0), Jake Toogood (1-0), Ryan Wheeler (7-0-1) and the debut of Alex Florence.
The Neilsons were the first to bring a WBC title to Swindon and in another first are delivering the Town's first 'Pro-Am' event. The show will be opened by current Schoolboy National Champions Drew Hunt and Karum Aujla along with three other fighters from the Horseshoe Amateur Boxing Club in Swindon.
Tickets are still available priced at £10 – £60 see www.neilsonboxing.co.uk or the ticket hotline 01793 833468.
https://swindonlink.com/48003-2/
Copyright 2021 - Neilson Boxing 🥊

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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2 in Oak Grove facing meth charges
By Anna Mathews Carroll County News
OAK GROVE -- A woman wanted on a warrant for failure to pay, and her roommate, were taken into custody last week after authorities reportedly found meth manufacturing components in their Oak Grove residence along with the woman's infant child.
The child, say authorities, was turned over to the Department of Human Services (DHS).
Leslye Allred, 26, was booked into jail for possession of drug paraphernalia, exposing a child to a chemical substance or methamphetamine, possession of drug paraphernalia with intent to manufacture, possession of a controlled substance, and failure to pay.
Jeffery Gardner, 25, was booked in for possession of drug paraphernalia, exposing a child to a chemical substance or methamphetamine, possession of drug paraphernalia with intent to manufacture, and possession of a controlled substance.
The arrests were the result of an attempt to serve a warrant on Allred for failure to pay. According to a press release from Capt. Alan Hoos, with the Carroll County Sheriff's Office, county deputies went to the Oak Grove home where she was staying on Friday, Jan. 27.
He said Gardner greeted deputies at the door and said he was the caretaker of the residence. When the deputies asked if Allred was inside, Gardner reportedly said she wasn't and allowed the deputies to search.
"Upon entering the residence, Deputy Juan Cribbs observed a small infant in the living room area," said Hoos. "Deputy Jerry Williams, who was outside the residence, notified Cribbs by radio that he had seen Allred in the rear of the residence through a window running from room to room."
Hoos said while the deputies were looking for Allred, they observed items of drug paraphernalia in plain view throughout the house, including items of paraphernalia that led them to believe that methamphetamine was being manufactured at the residence.
He said Allred was located and taken into custody on the warrant, the house was cleared of all occupants, and investigators and DHS personnel were called to the scene.
The investigators, Hoos said, located the owner of the residence who gave authorities consent to search. He said items collected as evidence included several that are commonly used in the manufacturing of meth and several items of drug paraphernalia.
According to jail records, Allred and Gardner are being held on a $100,000 bond each.


You are one person. You may look at the state the world is in and be somewhat disappointed. There are multiple things happening to the environment that just aren't okay. Humans are using a ton of plastics. These plastics get discarded in the ocean and can negatively affect marine wild life. Our insistence on fracking and taking oil from tribal land has the effect of erasing culture.
While there are many environmental issues globally, there is something you can do to help. Instead of taking an immediately global approach to helping the environment, you can make a difference by impacting your own environment. Cleaning your local park, planting in community gardens, and encouraging proper recycling techniques are all ways you can help make a difference in your environment.
We look to provide you with multiple ways that you can make a difference in your environment.
Recycling is an excellent way that you can make a difference in your environment. Recycling is a broad term that refers to an entire concept of reusing or repurposing materials. There are a number of materials that can be recycled to help positively impact the environment.
There are also a number of resources to help you figure out what items in your home are recyclable. For example, if you are an Illinois or Wisconsin state resident, there are charts you can follow that will assist you with recycling.
Groot goes to great lengths to describe the ways in which you can prepare the previously mentioned materials for recycling. Recycling is an easy way to help impact your local environment by reducing the amount of harmful materials that go back into the environment.
Something you can do simply in your home is to minimize food waste. According to the USDA, it is estimated that Americans waste between 30% and 40% of the total amount of food produced in America. This is abysmal.
Panera Bread and Starbucks are examples of local chains that have a large amount of food waste. Bakery items are seen as undesirable past a certain date when there are communities of folks that can benefit from that food.
There are several options that can help you reduce the food waste you produce in your home. For example, apps like OLIO offer peer-to-peer networks that allow you to share food that you are not currently consuming. Bread that might go bad soon that you don't plan on using can be posted to this site. If someone has a need for your food waste or vice versa, you can set up an exchange. Minimizing food waste is an easy way to help your local environment.
Investing in solar energy is another way you can help your local environment. Solar energy is a renewable resource that is generated from the sun. Currently, until our sun explodes, it will remain a renewable resource. Solar energy has been used in a variety of ways by humans over the years. From being used to dry out meat and fish for preservation purposes to converting solar energy into electricity, there are a number of uses for solar energy.
When you use solar energy in your home, you can drastically reduce your electricity bill and save more money over time. In fact, investing in solar energy can help you save between $3,000 and $20,000 per year. In addition to saving money, there are also state, municipality, and utility tax credits and rebates that can further lower the amount of money you spend on energy per year.
The next way you can help your local environment is by consuming less energy. You can consume less energy in a variety of ways. In terms of consuming gas, only use heaters and gas when you absolutely need to warm the house up. Practice turning your heat off when you are not in the home or when you don't need it.
In the winter time, you can stay warm by bundling up in blankets or wearing more layers. This is an easy way that you can save money on your gas bill and consume less energy. In the summer time, wear loose-fitting clothes, stay hydrated, and drink water with ice. This will help you remain cool without needing to use the air conditioning.
You could also shower less and practice reducing the amount of time you take to shower. This can help conserve water and can help conserve the amount of gas you use to heat the water.
You can help impact your local environment by volunteering at your local park. It is very easy for parks to get littered with cans, paper, and various other forms of trash. Cleaning up a local park is a great way to meet people and an excellent way to help your community.
Beautiful parks encourage people to visit those parks. A community that has access to clean parks can rest assured that the park is for them. They do not have to claim that they cannot go to the park because it is dirty. Depending on where you live, a quick Google search should find you volunteer initiatives to help clean parks near you.
For example, the Chicago Park District has parks listed on their site that give locations where folks are helping clean local parks.
Another easy way to help make environmental change in your local neighborhood is to participate in community gardens. Community gardens help feed communities and are an excellent way to provide food when you live in a food desert. Community gardens also promote community by getting people to work together to grow different crops.
Working at a community garden isn't just beneficial for the environment, though. Community gardens can help instill a sense of pride in a community by making that community relatively sustainable. If you are interested in community gardens in your area, we recommend you search for community gardens near where you live.
DIY culture exist because of the ability of humans to recycle and reuse items that may appear to have little or no value. Did you know that you can transform old jeans into cut-off shorts? You can also use material from clothes that are old to make new clothes.
Learning how to sew is a valuable skill that will help you reuse old materials. Instead of purchasing your clothes brand-new from a department store, you could utilize local thrift stores. Not only do thrift stores sell clothes at a more affordable price point, they also have a wide range of styles that you won't be able to find in most department stores.
In fact, thrift store shopping is a great way to keep up with vintage styles and outfit your wardrobe at an affordable price.
One of the last things you can do to actively benefit your local environment is to donate clothes and items you don't use. Instead of throwing your clothes away, leading to the waste of clothes and other resources, you could give your clothes to folks in need.
Companies like Goodwill and local thrift stores do an excellent job of taking clothes and reselling them to folks at an affordable rate. When you donate your clothes, you can receive special discounts at stores, making purchasing new clothes cheaper.
Donating your clothes is an easy way to make a difference in your community. Why waste clothing when it can go to perfect use by another human being?
By doing any of the previously mentioned tasks, you are well on your way to making a difference in your environment. If enough people contribute to their local environment in meaningful and positive ways, the overall state of the environment will improve.


You can try lifestyle changes that may help you manage or reduce your hot flashes. And if those don't help, you may want to try medical treatment.
Avoid using tobacco or drinking a lot of alcohol. This may help you manage or reduce your symptoms.
Manage stress. Stress may make hot flashes worse.
Use relaxation techniques, such as breathing exercises, yoga, or biofeedback.
Shifren JL, et al. (2010). Role of hormone therapy in the management of menopause. Obstetrics and Gynecology, 115(4): 839–855.
North American Menopause Society (2011). The role of soy isoflavones in menopausal health: Report of the North American Menopause Society. Menopause, 18(7): 732–753.
U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (2017). Hormone therapy for the primary prevention of chronic conditions in postmenopausal women: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. JAMA 2017 Dec 12; 318:2224. Available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2017.18261.


Some heartburn triggers are obvious: chili dogs, chocolate cake, Thanksgiving. But heartburn doesn't stop and start with food alone. If you have constant heartburn, it's time to track down the real culprit. Click through this slideshow to find some sneaky—and often overlooked—causes of heartburn.
Heartburn is as American as apple pie—more than 60 million people experience it at least once a month. For some people—those with gastroesophageal reflux disease, or GERD—heartburn can be a constant companion.
Some heartburn triggers are obvious: chili dogs, chocolate cake, Thanksgiving. But heartburn doesn't stop and start with food alone. If you have constant heartburn, it's time to track down the real culprit.
Click through this slideshow to find some sneaky—and often overlooked—causes of heartburn.
Consult your doctor if you think your Rx is causing heartburn—don't just decide to stop taking a drug on your own.
The oil—not the fish—appears to be responsible for gastrointestinal side effects. Fish itself is low in fat and high in protein and is an excellent food for heartburn sufferers when used in a healthy, heartburn-soothing recipe.
However, a study in the Journal of Psychosomatic Research suggests that a heartburn patient's perception of his symptoms—and not the actual levels of stomach acid—are associated with stress.
Peppermint, like fish oil, is a double-edged sword when it comes to the stomach. Peppermint tea, peppermint-oil capsules, and even peppermint candies are often used to settle upset stomachs—but these remedies can backfire on people with GERD.


Evans Fitness Club strives to provide each guest that visits our facility with the highest level of fitness. We continue to aspire to be a strong partner in our community and give our support to improve the health and fitness of all ages.
The activities, amenities, and facilities that Evans Fitness Club provides are ever growing. We want for every person, that walks through the door, to be able to plug-in to a support system and continue a healthy lifestyle.
With over 450 group fitness classes each month, you will be able to find a support system and accountability for any fitness level. Need more one-on-one help? Evans Fitness Club offers personal training. Our team of certified personal trainers are some of the best in Evans and Augusta and will work with you to create a fitness plan that will help you reach your fitness goals. Additionally, we offer KidFit, child care, Parent's Night Out, karate, and parent/child cardio classes for those parents who are looking to stay fit and healthy.
In addition, we provide a support system within the gym to help you achieve these goals, not only through exercise but throughout all facets of your family's life. Through our on-site weight loss center, Center for Modern Aging, we have medical professionals on staff to assist you in reaching your goals as quickly as possible. We want to see you reach your peak performance.
We also have a personal wellness facility that will support you in speedy muscle recovery. Our state of the art Cryotherapy will assist you with entire body pain management. We are the only facility in the CSRA that offers this to the public. You can only find this type of therapy with major sports programs around the nation. We are within the likes of the Georgia Bulldogs athletic program, Atlanta Hawks, and the Atlanta Braves organization.
It is our goal to deliver to you an all in one, state of the art fitness facility that you can easily implement in your daily life to help with the betterment of your mind, body, and soul. Evans Fitness Club is the gym for you that can help you succeed on your fitness journey.


text:
Andrew Bird and Iron & Wine
On AXS.COM
Andrew Bird, Iron & Wine
Sat, July 30, 2022, 7:00 PM EDT
Doors at 6:00 PM
Westville Music Bowl
45 Yale Avenue
Andrew Bird is an internationally acclaimed, Grammy-nominated multi-instrumentalist, vocalist, whistler, and songwriter who picked up his first violin at the age of four and spent his formative years soaking up classical repertoire completely by ear. Since beginning his recording career in 1997, Bird has released 17 albums and performed extensively across the globe. He has recorded with the Preservation Hall Jazz Band, appeared as "Dr. Stringz" on Jack's Big Music Show, and headlined concerts at Carnegie Hall, Sydney Opera House, Walt Disney Concert Hall, and festivals worldwide.
Bird performed as the Whistling Caruso in Disney's The Muppets movie, scored the FX series Baskets, and collaborated with inventor Ian Schneller on Sonic Arboretum, an installation that exhibited at New York's Guggenheim Museum, Boston's ICA, and the MCA Chicago. Bird has been a featured TED Talks presenter, a New Yorker Festival guest, and an op-ed contributor for the New York Times.
More recently, Bird released a series of site-specific improvisational short films and recordings called Echolocations, recorded in remote and acoustically interesting spaces: a Utah canyon, an abandoned seaside bunker, the middle of the Los Angeles River, and a reverberant stone-covered aqueduct in Lisbon. Additionally, Bird hosts an ongoing series of live-streamed performances called Live from the Great Room, putting the creative process on display for fans as he collaborates and converses with friends in a candid, intimate setting.
Shortly after receiving his 2020 Grammy nomination for Best Folk Album, with My Finest Work Yet, Andrew Bird made his professional acting debut in the cast of Fargo's fourth installment, which concluded on FX in November 2020 and is currently streaming via Hulu. In March 2021, Bird released his latest project, These 13, an album entirely co-written and recorded with his longtime friend and former Squirrel Nut Zippers collaborator, Jimbo Mathus. Captured live to tape, just the two of them playing and singing from opposite sides of a microphone, These 13 marked the first set of new music that Bird and Mathus created together in more than 20 years.
Iron & Wine is the musical project of singer-songwriter Sam Beam. Born and raised in South Carolina, Beam was teaching film when his home recorded debut, The Creek Drank the Cradle, was released on Sub Pop records in 2002. Garnering both critical and popular acclaim, Beam was vaulted into the spotlight of the burgeoning indie-folk and Americana scenes. Now entering its 20th year, Iron & Wine have released seven full length recordings, numerous EPs / singles, and collaborations with Calexico, Ben Bridwell (Band of Horses) and Jesca Hoop all on their way to becoming a four-time GRAMMY nominee. Iron & Wine's music has captured the emotion and imagination of listeners with their distinctly cinematic songs; in particular they've become synonymous with the movies Twilight and Garden State and continue to find a home in your favorite film, TV show or streaming playlist. As the world continues to spin - so do Iron & Wine continue on their path of releasing new music and touring.
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May 6, 2014 CHICAGO – Researcher Adam Hock of Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) and colleagues at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Northwestern University have developed a new catalyst to transform propane into propene (propylene).
Propene, with worldwide sales of $90 billion in 2008, is a crucial product for the petrochemical industry, used in the manufacture of plastics, packaging and other applications. Current catalysts, while very active for the production of propene, also produce methane and ethylene (smaller hydrocarbon fragments) through unwanted side reactions. Separating the desired products adds to the energy demand and cost of the process. The new catalyst, a silica supported single-site Zn(II) catalyst, is more selective for the desired propane to propene transformation, reducing waste, increasing efficiency, and potentially lowering production costs. Propane dehydrogenation for propene production is used in the United States and globally, particularly in the Middle East, and many plants are currently being built.
The Hock team's new catalyst is described in an article published in ACS Catalysis and is the subject of a patent application by IIT and ANL. The ACS Catalysis article is the first in a series that will explore these types of catalysts.
Hock and his team used isolated zinc atoms rather than the particles of metal typically used as the catalyst. Because the zinc atoms are isolated they have a small number of available reaction pathways to follow and thus they are very selective for the removal of hydrogen from the short-chain alkane propane to yield propene and hydrogen.
Founded in 1890, Illinois Institute of Technology is a Ph.D.-granting university, located in Bronzeville on Chicago's South Side, with more than 7,800 students in engineering, science, architecture, design, applied technology, human sciences, business and law. Total enrollment in Fall 2013 was the highest since 1968—and the Fall 2013 full-time undergraduate enrollment was the largest it has been since 1981. Visit www.iit.edu.


text:
import subprocess
from crisscross.facades import TTS
from crisscross.utils import whereis_exe

class EspeakTextToSpeech(TTS):
    ''' Speaks using the espeak program
    '''
    def _speak(self, **kwargs):
        subprocess.call(["espeak", kwargs.get('message')])

def instance():
    if whereis_exe('espeak.exe'):
        return EspeakTextToSpeech()
    return TTS()

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Prevalence and factors associated with overweight and obesity among adults in Hawassa city, southern Ethiopia: a community based cross-sectional study
Teshale Darebo1,
Addisalem Mesfin2Email author and
Samson Gebremedhin3
BMC Obesity20196:8
Accepted: 2 January 2019
In Ethiopia, limited information is available about the epidemiology of over-nutrition. This study assessed the prevalence of, and factors associated with overweight and obesity among adults in Hawassa city, Southern Ethiopia.
A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2015 in the city. A total of 531 adults 18–64 years of age were selected using multistage sampling approach. Interviewer administered qualitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess the consumption pattern of twelve food groups. The level of physical exercise was measured via the General Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ). Based on anthropometric measurements, Body Mass Index (BMI) was computed and overweight including obesity (BMI of 25 or above) was defined. For identifying predictors of overweight and obesity, multivariable binary logistic regression model was fitted and the outputs are presented using Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI).
The prevalence of overweight including obesity was 28.2% (95% CI: 24.2–32.2). Significant proportions of adults had moderate (37.6%) or low (2.6%) physical activity level. As compared to men, women had 2.56 (95% CI: 1.85–4.76) times increased odds of overweight/obesity. With reference to adults 18–24 years of age, the odds were three times higher among adults 45–54 (3.06, 95% CI: 1.29–7.20) and 55–64 (2.88, 95% CI: 1.06–7.84) years. Those from the highest income tercile were 3.16 times (95% CI: 1.88–5.30) more likely to be overweight/obese as compared to adults from the lowest tercile. Having moderate (3.10, 95% CI: 1.72–5.60) or low (4.80 95% CI: 2.50–9.23) physical activity was also significantly associated with the outcome. Further, daily intake of alcohol and, frequent consumption of sweets, meat and eggs were associated with overweight/obesity. Conversely, no significant associations were evident for meal frequency, practices of skipping breakfast, behavior of eating away from home and frequency of consumption of fast foods, fruits and vegetables.
Prompting active lifestyle, limiting intakes of sweets, advocating optimum consumption of alcohol and calorie dense animal source foods, especially amongst the better-off segment of the population, may reduce the magnitude of over-nutrition.
Hawassa
Globally, each year non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 40 million deaths and loss of 1.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALY) [1, 2]. Cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus in combination cause more than three-fourth of all global deaths secondary to NCDs. In absolute numbers, the four medical conditions alone annually result in 32 million deaths throughout the world [1]. In the last two decades, the epidemiological significance of NCDs has been rapidly growing both in developed and developing countries. Globally between 2000 and 2015, the total adult mortality attributable to NCDs has increased by 16% [3].
Non-communicable diseases have wide-range of genetic, environmental and behavioral determinants. However, the rapid epidemiological shift observed in the last few decades is largely attributable to changes in few, known and modifiable risk factors. These factors are tobacco and alcohol use, physical inactivity, unhealthy diets, raised blood pressure, overweight/obesity, hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia [4]. Most of the risk factors function in complex and synergistic fashion and, tend to co-occur together [2, 4].
Overweight including obesity refer to abnormal or excessive accumulation of fat that may result in health impairment and its usually measured based on high Body Mass Index (BMI) [1]. There is convincing evidence that overweight and obesity increase the risk of several types of cancers and elevate blood pressure, cholesterol and insulin resistance [4]. Each year worldwide, 2.8 million deaths and 2.3% of the global DALY loss are attributed to the consequences of overweight or obesity [5]. In the last few decades, a substantial rise in the prevalence of overweight and obesity has been observed both in developed and developing countries [6, 7]. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2014 globally approximately two billion adults – 39% of women and men – were overweight or obese [7, 8]. Between 1975 and 2016, the combined prevalence almost doubled from the baseline level of 22% [7].
According to the estimate of WHO, in 2014 1.2% of men and 6.0% of females were either overweight or obese in Ethiopia [7]. Between 1997 and 2016, the combined prevalence in the country grew considerably from 2.6 to 6.9% in females and, from 0.6 to 1.9% in males [7]. Presumably, in urban areas of Ethiopia including Hawassa city, the prevalence is growing. Yet, epidemiological evidence on the underlying risk factors is scarce. The recent Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) determined the national magnitude of overweight and obesity both in urban and rural areas. However, limited information is provided on the underlying drivers of the problem. While the general risk factors for overweight and obesity are known; the magnitude and strength of association of the factors, and hence their practical significance, may vary from one setting to another. Hence this study was conducted to assess the prevalence of, and factors associated with overweight and obesity among adult (18–64 years) in Hawassa city, Southern Ethiopia.
Hawassa is the capital city of Southern Nations Nationalities Peoples Region (SNNPR), located 273 km south of Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia. Projection based on the 2007 national census indicates, as of 2015 the city had a total population of 319,023, of whom 51.9% were adults18–64 years of age [9].
Study design and study participants
This community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015. Adults 18 years of age or older who were the permanent residents of Hawassa city were eligible for the study. Pregnant women, women in the first 6 months after giving birth and adults with obvious spinal deformity were excluded from the study.
The sample size for the study was determined using single population proportion formula. The formula estimates the minimum sample size required for determining a proportion in a source population as a function of desired level of significance, margin of error and the expected level of the proportion. Specifications made during the computation were: 21% expected prevalence of overweight and obesity [10], 95% confidence level, 5% margin of error, 10% compensation for possible non-response and design effect of 2. The final calculated sample size was 565. The adequacy of the sample size for determining the factors associated with overweight and obesity was assessed using a post-hoc power calculation.
Sampling technique
Study participants were selected using multistage cluster sampling technique. Initially, 6 kebeles (the smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia) were randomly selected out of the existing 32 kebeles in the city, and the total sample size was distributed to the selected kebeles proportional to their population size. Then, using existing administrative records as sampling frame, households were selected via systematic random sampling approach. From each of the selected household, an adult aged 18–64 years was drawn. When multiple adults were available within the household, an adult was chosen at random from the same household. Conversely, when no adult was available, one was selected from the immediate neighboring household. If sampled adult was absent from their home on the data collection day, another visit was arranged.
Data were collected by trained data collectors and supervisors using structured and pretested questionnaire. The questionnaire was prepared in English, and finalized and administered in Amharic language which is widely spoken in the city. Questions pertaining to socio-demographic characteristics were directly adopted from the standard Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) questionnaire [10]. On average, each interview lasts for 40 min.
The frequency of consumption of twelve food groups was assessed using a qualitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) over the reference period of 1 month. As we could not get a validated FFQ, we developed and used our own tool. The twelve food groups were: cereals, roots and tubers, legumes, fruits, vegetables, eggs, milk and milk products, meat, fish, oil and fat, sweets and sugar, and coffee/tea. For each of the 12 food groups, the pattern of consumption was ultimately classified into six ordinal categories: more than once per day, once per day, 3–6 times per week, 1–2 times per week, 1–2 times per month and less than once per month.
The level of physical activity was measured using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) [11]. The questionnaire collects information on the level of physical activity in three domains: (1) at work; (2) during transport; and 3) at leisure/recreational activity).ultimately each individual was classified as having low, moderate or high level of physical activity following a standard classification approach [11]. Operationally, low physical activity is a sedentary activity level which describes someone who gets little to no exercise; moderate physical activity is a low-impact aerobic exercise classes, brisk walking or hiking, recreational team sports (volleyball, soccer, etc.); and vigorous physical activity level is running or jogging, high-intensity aerobic classes or competitive full-field sports.
Anthropometric measurements (height and weight) were taken by using calibrated equipment and standardized techniques. For minimizing possible errors, measurements were made in duplicate by the same observer. Weight was measured using SECA electronic weighing scales to the nearest 100 g. The scale was calibrated regularly and the indicator was checked against zero reading prior to every measurement. Height was measured to the nearest 0.1 cm using a standing height board. Ultimately, BMI (wt/ht2) was calculated and overweight (BMI of ≥25 to < 30), and obesity (BMI of 30 or above) were classified based on standard thresholds.
Variables of the study
The dependent variable of the study was presence or absence of overweight or obesity. On the other hand 27 independent variables were considered for the study. These were: (1) age, (2) gender, (3) educational status, (4) type of occupation, (5) household income terciles (low, middle, high), (6) ethnicity, (7) religion, (8) marital status, (9) family size, (10) awareness about chronic diseases, (11) level of physical activity, (12) behavior of skipping breakfast, (13) frequency of consumption away from home, (14) frequency of consumption of fast foods, (15) frequency of alcohol intake, and consumption pattern of the 12 food groups listed earlier. Consequently, the frequencies of consumption of the twelve food groups were treated as twelve different variables. Information on how the variables were measured and categorized is provided as a (Additional file 1).
Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Data were described using frequency distributions, measures of central tendency and dispersion. Factors association with overweight and obesity were identified using bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses and the findings are presented using both crude odds ratio (COR) and adjusted odds ratio (AOR).
The procedure of developing the multivariable model was as follows: at the beginning, multiple bivariable logistic regression analyses were run for each of the independent variables and then variables that had p-value less than 0.25 were considered candidate variables for the multivariable model. In the final multivariable model,α value of 0.05 for two-sided tests was set as the level of significance. Model fitness was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. In the final model, extent of multicollinearity was measured using variance inflation factor (VIF) which was found to be within a tolerable range (less than 10).
Ethical consideration
The study was cleared by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa University. Data were collected after taking informed written consent from the respondents. All the information gathered was kept confidential and all overweight or obese adults were provided a brief nutrition education.
Socio-demographic and economic characteristics
Among 565 adults approached for the study, 524 were willing to take part making the response rate 92.7%. The mean (± SD) age of the respondents was 31.0 (±7.5) years and the majorities (72.7%) were below the age of 35 years. Gender-wise, females were slightly over represented (56.1%) than males (43.9%). About a quarter (25.4%) of the respondents had tertiary level of education and 27.1% had secondary level of education. Approximately half (55.1%) of the respondents were married and 48.5% were living with two or more family members. Above one-third (40.1%) of the respondents had monthly income between 45 and 82 USD. Among the study participants, Sidama and Orthodox Christianity were the leading ethnic group and religious affiliation, respectively (Table 1).
Socio-demographic characteristics of the study participants, Hawassa city, Southern Ethiopia, June 2015
Variables (n = 524)
Sidama
Wolayita
Amahra
Kambata
Gurage
Widowed/Widower
Educational status
1–4 grade
9–12 grade
Household monthly income (USD)
< 45
Daily laborer
Non-governmental employee
Prevalence of physical inactivity
As described earlier the total physical activity level of respondents was assessed and classified using the General Physical Activity Questionnaires (GPAQ). It was found that 37.6 and 40.8% of the adults were involved in moderate and high physical activity levels respectively; whereas, 21.6% had sedentary life style.
Selected dietary practices
The study explored the typical daily meal frequency, practices of skipping breakfast, behavior of eating away from home and, frequencies of consumption of fast foods and alcohol. The majorities (60.4%) typically eat three meals a day and 54.4% take an additional snack every day. The practice of skipping breakfast appears to be common. Nearly half (50.2%) mentioned that they omit breakfast at least once per a typical week. About a third of the participants (34.7%) reported frequent (2–6 times per week) eating away from home; whereas 27.7% consume fast foods once per day. More than a quarter (28.9%) took alcohol at least once in the previous month; of them, 30.9% took alcohol on daily basis (Table 2).
Selected dietary practices of adults 18–64 years of age, Hawassa city, Southern Ethiopia, June 2015
Typical meal frequency per day
Two or less
Typical snack frequency per day
Practice of skipping breakfast/week
Four to six
Consumption of meal away from home per week
Two to six
Frequency of consumption of fast foods
1–2 times/week
1–2 times/month
0 times/month
Alcohol intake in the last one month
Alcohol intake frequency within the last one month (n = 152)
1–6 times per week
Less than once per week
Frequency of consumption of various food groups
The pattern of consumption twelve food groups was assessed using a qualitative food frequency questionnaire in terms of the number of times per month the food groups were consumed. It was found that all of the respondents daily consume cereals and foods made of oil, butter or fat. Frequencies of legumes (65.3%) and, roots and tubers (37.8%) intake at least once per day were also reasonably high. Proportions that reported of consumption of the following food groups on daily bases on decreasing order were: dairy product (33.6%), fruits (31.3%), meat (28.6%), vegetables (22.3%) and fish (9.7%). Coffee and tea are regularly consumed in the city, almost a quarter (23.3%) take the beverages more than once per day. Further, 21.5% consume sweets foods and beverages on daily basis (Table 3).
Frequency of consumption of twelve food groups among adults 18–64 years of age, Hawassa city, Ethiopia, 2015
> once/day
Once/day
3–6 times/wk
1–2 times/mo
< once/mo
Oil and fat
Roots and tubers
Sweets and sugar
Prevalence of overweight and obesity
The mean (±SD) BMI of the respondents was 23.7 (±4.1) kg/m2. The survey indicated 28.2% (95% CI: 24.2–32.2%) of adults in Hawassa had a BMI of more than 25 kg/m2 and were thus overweight or obese. Twenty three percent of the adults were overweight and 5 % were obese. The total prevalence of overweight and obesity in women (36.4%) was more than two times higher than that of the prevalence in men (17.8%). The prevalence of overweight, including obesity rises from 24.2% in adults 18–24 years to, 49.8 and 54.2% among adults 45–54 and 55–64 years of age, respectively.
Factors associated with overweight and obesity
As described in the variables of the study sub-section, 27 independent variables have been considered for the bivariable logistic regression analyses. Ten independent variables that showed p-value less than 0.25 in bivariable analyses were considered as candidate variables for the multivariable model. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, sex, age, physical activity level, frequency of alcohol consumption and frequency of consumption of meat, eggs, and sweet foods and household income were significantly associated (p < 0.05) with overweight including obesity.
Based on the adjusted odds ratio, it was found that women, as compared to men, had 2.56 (95% CI: 1.85–4.76) times increased odds of overweight/obesity. With reference to adults 18–24 years old, the odds were three times raised among adults 45–54 (3.06, 95% CI: 1.29–7.20) and 55–64 (2.88, 95% CI: 1.06–7.84) years of age. Similarly, adults from the highest income tercile were 3.16 times (95% CI: 1.88–5.30) more likely to be overweight/obesity that those from the lowest tercile. As compared to adults having high physical activity, those with moderate (3.10, 95% CI: 1.72–5.60) or low (4.80 95% CI: 2.50–9.23) physical activity demonstrated significantly increased odds of overweight/obesity. Further, daily consumptions of alcohol and more frequent intakes of sweets, meat and eggs all showed significant association with overweight/obesity (Table 4).
Factors association with overweight and obesity among adults 18–64 years of age, Hawassa city, Ethiopia, 2015
Independent variables
Overweight/obesity
Odds ratio (95% CI)
Crude (COR)
Adjusted (AOR)
2.63 (1.72–4.00)a
Alcohols intake last month
Frequency of consumption of vegetables
More than once per day
Frequency of consumption of fruits
Frequency of consumption of meat
7.23 (3.33–15.85)
2 or less times per month
Frequency of consumption of egg
Frequency of consumption of sweets
6.09 (3.16–11.70)a
Household income level
aSignificant association at 95% confidence level, 1r base group
No significant associations were evident for the other variables including meal frequency, practices of skipping breakfast, behavior of eating away from home, frequency of consumption of fast foods and pattern of consumption of fruits and vegetables.
The study found substantial differences in the prevalence of overweight and obesity between women (36%) and men (18%). The recent national DHS survey conducted in 2016 similarly reported that in the urban areas of Ethiopia 21% of women and 12% of men; and in Addis Ababa city 30% of women and 20% of men, were either overweight or obese [12]. Studies conducted in many developing countries concluded the same [13–16].The observed difference between the two genders can be due to both biological and social factors. In developing countries males are more frequently engage in physically demanding activities than women do, hence they may have reduced risk of obesity. Further, studies suggested female sex hormones have a great impact on deposition of fat, and hence risk of obesity [17, 18].
The study suggested that the prevalence of overweight and obesity increases with age. The Ethiopia DHS also documented a similar pattern of association, both among men and women [12]. As compared to adults 20–29 years of age, the prevalence of overweight and obesity was almost double among those 40–49 years of age [12]. Many studies conducted in developed and developing countries indicated that mean body weight and BMI gradually increase during late adulthood life [19–23]. The association is likely to be due to natural changes in body composition and decreasing rate of metabolism associated with aging [23].
In Ethiopia very few studies attempted to measure the level physical activity in adults and other segments of the population [24, 25]. Using the GPAQ, our study suggested that sedentary life style (21.6%) is common among adults in Hawassa city and physical inactivity was significantly association with overweight and obesity. A study conducted in Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia also concluded that about two-thirds (65.9%) of working adults in the city had moderate or low physical activity level; furthermore, sedentary life style was inversely associated with central obesity [24].
The study observed a positive relationship between income terciles and prevalence of overweight and obesity. Previous studies so far suggested two divergent patterns of relationship between wealth and overweight/obesity status [26]. Studies from developed countries often suggested that poverty is associated with higher risks for obesity because the economically disadvantaged people are more likely to consume junk and empty calorie foods which are important risk factors of obesity [26, 27]. On the other hand, studies from developing countries frequently documented that obesity increases with wealth because, in transition societies overeating is primarily explained by economic access to food [26, 28, 29]. Parallel to our findings, the Ethiopia DHS indicated the magnitude of overweight including obesity is 8–11 times higher among women and men from households with the highest wealth quintile as compared to those from the lowest quintile [12].
We observed that the odds overweight and obesity are 2.5 times higher among adults who reported daily consumption of alcohol as compared to those who did not take alcohol in the past month. Yet, those who reported weekly alcohol intake demonstrated no increased odds overweight/obesity. Likewise, a recent systematic review concluded that light-to-moderate alcohol intake is not associated with obesity while heavy drinking is more consistently related to weight gain [30]. A secondary analysis of data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of the United States also observed more or less similar pattern of association [31]. Alcohol is an important source of condensed calorie and positive energy balance. Further, it may hamper lipid oxidation and increase appetite to foster adiposity [32–34].
We found that odds of overweight including obesity increases with rise in frequency of consumption of sweet food and beverages, meat and eggs. This may indicate that the three food groups are important sources of positive energy balance among adults in the city. Many epidemiological studies testified that regular consumption of sweets and calorie dense animal source foods and are important causes of weight gain. A wealth of evidence shows excessive consumption of sugar and sweets is the root of the global pandemic of obesity and metabolic syndrome [35, 36]. Likewise, a recent ecological study based on data obtained from 170 countries suggested, the consumption of meat contributes just as much as sugar to the growing burden obesity [37]. However, the contribution of frequent consumption of eggs for obesity is less studied and inconsistently observed [38–40].
The study identified multiple factors that are significantly associated with overweight including obesity. However, all of the variables may not have practical significance as some of the predictors (age and sex) are not modifiable. Furthermore, inconsideration of their prevalence and strength of association with the outcome, all the modifiable factors may not have equal practical significance. Based on our findings we recommend that increasing the physical activity level and reducing consumption of animal source foods especially meat, might be the most important interventions to reduce the burden of overweight and obesity in the city.
The major strength of the study is the fact that we enrolled relatively large number of subjects using random sampling approach. This is likely to assure the representativeness of the findings of study to the entire city. Further, the community-based nature of the study contributes to the external validity of the study. We have also attempted to measure multiple variables that having significance for overweight/obesity including level of physical activity.
However, the findings of the study should be interpreted in consideration of the following methodological shortcomings. Some of the independent variables including frequencies of consumption of various food groups, fast foods, alcohol and eating away from home are liable to recall error and this might partially obscure their association with overweight/obesity. Further, as witnessed in many dietary surveys, some individuals may intentionally under-report high dietary intake and over- report low intake to simulate healthy diet; accordingly, the food frequency assessment might have been affected by social desirability bias. While assessing the alcohol intake, we only measured the frequency of consumption without considering the content and volume of alcohol intake. This might have resulted in underestimation of the strength of association with the outcome. We assessed the consumption frequency of different food groups based on a FFQ that has not been validated before, so this might have affected validity of the measurement. As many observational studies, residual confounding from unmeasured or misclassified variables cannot be excluded and, due to the cross-sectional nature of the study, the reported associations may not directly imply causality.
The study showed that more than a quarter adults in Hawassa city are either overweight or obese. Substantial proportions have moderate (37.6%) or low (21.6%) physical activity levels and such adults have increased likelihood of overweight/obesity. Significantly increased odds of overweight/obesity are also observed among women, adults 45–64 years of age and adults from the highest income tercile. Further, regular alcohol users, and frequent consumers of sweets, meat and eggs had increased odds of the problem.
Promotion of active lifestyle, creating an enabling environment for voluntary physical exercise, limiting intake of sweets, advocating optimum consumption of alcohol and nutrient rich animal source foods especially amongst the better-off segment of the population may help to reduce the magnitude of overweight and obesity.
AOR:
CI:
Crude Odds Ratio
DALY:
Disability Adjusted Life Years
EDHS:
Ethiopian Demographic and Heath Survey
FFQ:
Food Frequency Questionnaire
GPAQ:
Global Physical Activity Questionnaire
IRB:
NCD:
SD:
SNNPR:
Southern Nation Nationality and Peoples Region
SPSS:
Statistical Package of Social Science
VIF:
Variance Inflation Factor
We are grateful for the financial support of Hawassa University for conducting the study. We would like to acknowledge the respondents for consenting for the study. Our acknowledgements also go to the entire data collection team.
This study was made possible by the financial support of Hawassa University, Ethiopia.
The dataset analyzed is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
TD conceived and designed the study, carried out the data collection and analysis, and drafted the manuscript. AM and SG supervised the designing and implementation of the project. All authors reviewed the draft manuscript for intellectual content and approved the final manuscript.
The study was cleared by the Institutional Review Board of College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa University. Data were collected after taking informed written consent from the respondents.
Additional file 1: Variables. (DOCX 21 kb)
Department of Public Health, Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Aman, Ethiopia
School of Nutrition, Food Science and Technology, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
School of Public Health, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
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text:
Jakob Ludwig Passavant (* 6. März 1751 in Frankfurt am Main; † 8. Januar 1827 ebenda) war ein Pfarrer der reformierten Kirche und Jugendfreund Johann Wolfgang von Goethes.

Leben und Werk
Passavant war der Sohn von Johann Ludwig Passavant (1719–1793) und dessen Ehefrau Maria Jakoba geb. Koch. Nach dem Besuch des städtischen Gymnasiums studierte er Theologie in Göttingen und Marburg und wurde 1774 Hilfsprediger bei Johann Caspar Lavater in Zürich.

Goethes Schweizreise 1775
Hier traf er seinen Jugendfreund, den 25-jährigen Johann Wolfgang Goethe wieder, der sich in die erst 16-jährige Anna Elisabeth Schönemann verliebt hatte und zu Ostern 1775 desselben Jahres seine Verlobung bekannt gab. Starke Zweifel über das gegebene Eheversprechen führten Goethe jedoch dazu, am 14. Mai 1775 eine längere Reise in die Schweiz anzutreten. Über Darmstadt, Mannheim, Straßburg Freiburg, Schaffhausen ging es bis zum 9. Juni 1775 nach Zürich.

Passavant schlug ihm eine gemeinsame Wanderung durch die Schweizer Urkantone vor. Am 9. Juni 1775 überquerten beide den Zürichsee, um von dort nach Richterswil und auf unwegsamen Pfaden nach Maria Einsiedeln zu wandern. Mit schlechtem Wetter ging es hinauf zum Gotthardpass, um dort im Gotthardhospiz vom 21. auf den 22. Juni zu übernachten. Passavant suchte Goethe vergeblich zum Abstieg nach Italien zu überreden. Passavant begleitete Goethe über den Vierwaldstättersee und den Zugersee nach Zürich zurück, das sie am 26. Juni 1775 wieder erreichten. Erst elf Jahre später trat Goethe seine Italienische Reise an.

Reformierter Geistlicher
Jakob Ludwig Passavant wechselte 1776 nach Hamburg und wurde Pfarrverwalter der dortigen reformierten Gemeinde und 1777 Pfarrer der reformierten Gemeinde Münden im Kurfürstentum Hannover. Anfang 1787 trat er seine Stelle als zweiter Pfarrer der reformierten Gemeinde in der lippischen Residenzstadt Detmold an.

1795 wurde er zum Zweiten Prediger der 1787 erbauten deutsch-reformierten Gemeinde in seiner Heimatstadt Frankfurt am Main gewählt, 1813 mit der Berufung von Johann Christoph Spiess zum Ersten Prediger. Im Jahre 1817 wurde ihm im Alter von 66 Jahren von der Universität Jena der theologische Doktortitel verliehen, vermutlich auf Anregung seines Jugendfreundes Goethe. Dieser erwähnte ihn auch in seinen Schriften, so in "Dichtung und Wahrheit" und als Ferdinand in "Die Leiden des jungen Werthers".

Familie
Jakob Ludwig Passavant heiratete 1778 Johanna Elisabeth Waitz (1752–1790). Aus der Ehe gingen vier Kinder hervor, darunter Philipp Jacob Passavant-Herries. Nach dem Tod seiner ersten Ehefrau heiratete er 1794 in Detmold in zweiter Ehe Christine Johanette Auguste Rotberg (1774–1804). Aus der Ehe gingen sechs Kinder hervor, darunter der spätere Kgl. Bayer. Generalmajor Friedrich Ritter von Passavant (1796–1862).

Literatur

 Fritz Koch:  (Stand des Artikels: 31. März 1996), auch in:

Weblinks

Person um Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Reformierter Geistlicher (18. Jahrhundert)
Reformierter Geistlicher (19. Jahrhundert)
Person des Christentums (Frankfurt am Main)
Jakob Ludwig
Geboren 1751
Gestorben 1827
Mann

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You are at:Home»News»2019 Election: Prophet Joshua Iginla Issues Fresh Prophetic Warning!
Senior Pastor of Champions Royal Assembly Prophet Joshua Iginla has released fresh prophetic warning about the forthcoming 2019 General Elections.
The pastor who is known for his exact prophecies gave this advice to the nation and especially politicians inside his 80,000 seater auditorium known as City of wonders in Abuja.
During the service, Prophet Joshua Iginla called for prayers for the Country for the forthcoming election.
He stated that political party leaders in the country should engage in a roundtable discussion about the upcoming election and reach an agreement which should be sealed with a Memorandum of Understanding that whatever the outcome of the 2019 election maybe, no form of violence should be employed and that politicians who are not contented with the results should seek legal help and redress.


Explanation: Which of these night sky icons can you find in this beautiful and deep exposure of the northern winter sky? Skylights include the stars in Orion's belt, the Orion Nebula, the Pleiades star cluster, the bright stars Betelgeuse and Rigel, the California Nebula, Barnard's Loop, and Comet Lovejoy. The belt stars of Orion are nearly vertical in the central line between the horizon and the image centre, with the lowest belt star obscured by the red glowing Flame Nebula. To the belt's left is the red arc of Barnard's Loop followed by the bright orange star Betelgeuse, while to the belt's right is the colourful Orion Nebula followed by the bright blue star Rigel. The blue cluster of bright stars near the top centre is the Pleiades, and the red nebula to its left is the California nebula. The bright orange dot above the image centre is the star Aldebaran, while the green object with the long tail to its right is Comet C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy). The featured image was taken about two weeks ago near Palau village in Spain.