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Johns Hopkins: Take Lacrosse to the Promised Land
By justinsimon15 Dec 17, 2010, 12:02pm EST
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No Denver? No Stony Brook? 9 'Hop Games!
As the sport of lacrosse looks to grow throughout the nation, one great way to do this is through television. Yesterday, ESPN announced their coverage for the 2011 NCAA season and there is one thing that ESPN has made clear.
For some reason, the "Worldwide leader in sports" has picked Johns Hopkins University to be the spokesperson for the 2011 season. The Blue Jays are on one of the three big networks (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU) nine times, not counting the three other times they will be shown on ESPN3.com.
In my mind, if you want the sport to grow, the only way to do that is to show the best and most exciting games the sport has to offer from week to week. I think a cool idea would be for at least one game of the year, have the fans vote on what they want to watch. Which game would they choose if they had a pick.
Noone can argue that in week two of the '11 season, a better game to watch will be Stony Brook versus University of Virginia, a rematch of last years NCAA quarterfinal in which UVA escaped with a 10-9 victory. Instead, we as fans of the sport and paying cable customers will be subjected to watch Hopkins take on Siena, a game that seems to be on every year now. That is no offense to Siena, a team that went 12-5 last year and has one heck of a player in Bryan Neufeld.
It also isnt a knock on Hopkins, although their 7-8 record last season doesn't cut it for so much ESPN air time. I do know that Hopkins plays in one of the largest lacrosse hotbeds in the nation and their fanbase is a large group. I understand ratings and why ESPN chose so many of their games. Just like the Dallas Cowboys having so many Sunday Night and Monday Night Football games.
But the Manhattan Jaspers at Homewood taking on the Blue Jays on Wednesday March 9? Come on.
I do understand there are contractual agreements and issues between certain networks in the markets of some of the schools that don't have as much ESPN air time. For example, Sunday March 6th's matchup between Virginia and Syracuse, which in my mind will once again be the game of the year, is not shown on any of the ESPN networks. While I am not 100 percent positive why it is not shown, I do know that sometimes Time Warner Cable has rights to certain games. Again, in this situation, I am not positive if that is the case. In terms of last years game, it was shown ESPN3.com and aired on ESPN U on a tape delay.
In a time where lacrosse is growing faster then ever and the expansion of the sport both at the porfessional and collegiate level are moving westward, one would think think the lacrosse fans of America would get a chance to see Denver or Ohio State play a game or two on television. What lacrosse fan wouldn't want to see Denver play? They went 12-5 last year, finished ranked ninth in the country and return one of the better attack duo's in the nation in Alex Demopoulos and Mark Matthews, who combined for 75 goals and 110 points last year. Not to mention the man leading the team is one of the biggest names in the sport; Bill Tierney.
For this argument I will settle my case on Sunday February 27. Please, from one lacrosse fan to another, can we get Stony Brook versus Denver matchup on there?
And how about last years almost Cinderella story, Army? They knocked off the top ranked Orange in double overtime before losing in the quarterfinals to Cornell. The Black Knights also return two of the best players in the country in attackman Jeremy Boltus and goalie Tom Palesky.
And no Penn State? A program that has been on the brink of being nationally acknowledged and now has a coach in Jeff Tamrboni to take them there. I know I would like to see a game of theirs at some point during the season.
But that is all just wishful thinking.
Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of games that will myself and many lacrosse fans happy. Saturday March 12 is sure to be a lacrosse fans dream. The Konica Minolta Face-Off Classic in Baltimore gives every fan the chance to roll out of bed at 11, catch a Big East showdown between Syracuse and Georgetown, grab some lunch then catch two of the best attackmen in the country (Rob Pannell and Steele Stanwick) go head to head. And, if you are lucky enough to have ESPN3.com you can also catch Maryland at Towson in between both those games and then Hopkins/UMBC to finish out the lacrosse fantasy of a day.
When all is said and done, it will be an exciting season and ESPN does offer the newcomer lacrosse fan a chance to see some great players, teams and coaches.


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Home / World Economy / World Economy News / October 'opportune time' for Japan to raise sales tax – Moody's
October 'opportune time' for Japan to raise sales tax – Moody's
in World Economy News 14/02/2019
October is still an "opportune time" for Japan to raise its sales tax as risks posed by global trade tensions are likely to be temporary, an official at ratings agency Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday.
Christian de Guzman, a vice president of sovereign ratings, also said Japan's growth outlook remains stable partly because it is supported by accommodative monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan can keep its accommodative policy in place for the time being, because the country's financial sector is robust enough to withstand the current low-interest-rate environment, he told reporters.
Moody's views may help ease some concern that Japan's economy is not strong enough to withstand an increase in the sales tax needed to pay for rising welfare costs due to its rapidly ageing society.
Japan is scheduled to raise the tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October.
"This may still be the most opportune time to raise the consumption tax… given the background of relatively stable growth and political stability," de Guzman said.
Some economists and policymakers are worried that the tax hike will weaken consumption at a time when risks to Japan's outlook are rising.
To soften the blow to consumer spending, the government plans to extend tax breaks and subsidies to households.
Japan is particularly vulnerable to damage from the U.S-Sino trade war because its manufacturers focus on making electronic parts and heavy machinery for export to China and other manufacturing centres.
De Guzman said risks posed by a slowdown in China's economy and U.S. trade protectionism are more cyclical than structural in nature, so Moody's is prepared to "look through" them.
While Japan's debt burden is large at around twice the size of its economic output, Tokyo's ability to fund its debt remains stable due to large household and corporate savings, he said.
Moody's estimates that Japan's fiscal expenditure related to ageing could rise to around 65 percent of government expenditure in 2040, up from around 55 percent in 2016, which highlights the importance of boosting government revenue.
Moody's rating on Japan is A1, which is four notches below its top rating. Its outlook for Japan is stable.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Richard Borsuk)
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These Women Saved Coke Studio 9 From Being An Absolute Disaster!
Home » Must Read » These Women Saved Coke Studio 9 From Being An Absolute Disaster!
By Ahmed Sohail
Coke Studio has been a big part of my life since its first season and I believe a lot of people would say the say the same thing about it, especially the ones belonging to my age-group (20 something's). It just started its ninth season and like any other season, I was waiting desperately for it. Coke Studio has played a vital role in keeping the music industry alive and fresh in our country.
In my opinion, the beginning of season 9 was underwhelming to say the least. A lot of people took their dissatisfaction to Twitter and expressed how having different producers for each episode was a big mistake. Some even went to claim that it sounded like Coke Studio India. No disrespect to the Indian version but our version is still much better than theirs.
Well, this season may not have given us the best start but it has given us something that Pakistan really needs right now. It's teaching us that women are going to lead this country one day. That may be an invalid association for some, but I think that subconsciously the creators produced something that is going to validate "girl power" in this society.
The strongest track in the first episode was Aaja Re Mora Saiyaan produced by Noori, why was it the strongest track? Because it was led effortlessly by the ever so wonderful Zeb Bangash. The song just lifted every listener's spirits by presenting an independent woman singing her heart out. Her melodious voice and that pleasant smile just raised the bar that would be very hard to follow.
Now to the second episode which many people didn't like especially because it was a rendition of a track originally sung by the great Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan. I'm no musician so I'm not going to argue about how well it was sung by all suited-up Rahat Fateh Ali Khan (really CokeStudio, RFAK in a suit?) but I will say that Momina Mustehsan with that brief passage won a million hearts over.
It was her debut with the song and she was a revelation. Whenever you listen the track, pay attention to Aahad Nayani, his smile and excitement can always tell the viewer about how good the song is. During the passage sung by Miss Momina, he had a smile that would've escaped his beard if it lasted any longer.
Lastly, in the second episode was the track Baliye by Haroon Shahid and ace QB. I personally love QB because of her energetic presence. This song was indeed saved by her melodious voice and power packed performance. The track started great but in between you could notice that it fell flat on its face, that was, until QB started her passage and brought it right back.
This season, Coke Studio may not have the consistency that they've always had but the insanely powerful women that they have lined up this season will definitely save it from being a total disaster. Also, did anyone notice how cute Rachel Viccaji looked when she banged her bangles together during Aaja Re Mora Saiyaan? I mean if that doesn't melt your heart then maybe nothing will.
PakistanKaPlus' Latest Episode On Kalash Valley Will Make Every Pakistani Fall In Love With It!
Quratulain Baloch has an Answer for Those Who Were Bashing her for Calling Imran Khan an A**hole!
Quratulain Baloch Getting Nominated For India's Radio Mirchi Awards Is A Proud Moment For Pakistan!
Picture of This Syrian Boy Has Gone Viral, But The War Continues
From Bliss to Woe [Poem]


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Thoughts and Prayers, Jokes and Empathy
Yesterday we were talking a bit about the power of humor and how it can convey a desire to bring change, especially when it is charged with more than crass ridicule or obvious rebuke. And also, how a joke can become light to the shadows of indecency. N.B., when writing about being funny its never easy to be funny. <—Like this. I will persist.
Hitchens was capable of the cheeky Brit in ways unlike the more serious and allegorical Orwell. Rilke preferred earnest to funny but he was German so both matters may require further consideration. Tamil movies traditionally prefer the sweeter touch to funny, often more a gentle poke but they generally avoid drifting into the irony lane. Jokes in serious philosophical commentaries composed in Sanskrit are as common as that cobra meets mongoose love affair you've read about in National Geographic in your honest Republican dentist's office. It's not like those things can't happen but some dentists are also Republicans.
Allow me to make yet another obvious point despite my best efforts to privilege prolix professional pedantry. (<—quadratic time featuring the letter "p.") One more time: Trump doesn't joke. Not in the way healthy people try to joke and fail. Not in the way I am not as funny as I wish I were. It's more than a shame but he is rather a case study in not-funny when the joke is both announced, not a disqualification in itself but is funny to him., which means it's decidedly not funny. Trump gets his ya-yas only when there's the possibility of cruelty even if he receives flattery. This kind of pathology however isn't exclusive to him, which is part of how he knows how to do both.
Nearly every day he'll say something and soon disavow or dissimulate by saying it was all a joke. The examples run from the merely bigoted incitement to violence to downright crimes against humanity. When these mere observations of fact can successfully dismiss even the most disingenuous accusations from Fox then your deep in Trump Country. The dupes will arrive in Trumpville Station, however, whether or not they are told they have been had. That might be the same station where Neo is stranded (that's you) and the train conductor programmed as a psychopath is beyond the reach of any update (that's losing the election). Our current hope is to cancel the sequel of the movie that should have never been made even if it means the only thing left on Netflix that you haven't seen during pandemic is the latest Bill and Ted.
We are desperate for funny to be funny again, aren't we? Some people can be misunderstood because they _are_ joking. But Trump's humor [insert hate quotes] is like everything else about him: a window into the empty chasm where his soul is supposed to be. Today's case in point are the jokes from his daily super spreader events. He has threatened Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Georgia all that he may never come back if he loses. If only, right? He has threatened to leave the country but hasn't yet mentioned the place without an extradition treaty who would take him. Thoughts and prayers invited, of course, not for his exile where we would not lament never seeing him again but for tax fraud prison and honest accountability. If only.
In the meantime, there are a slew of Republican Senators looking to be flies landing on whatever shithead will take them, even those like Sasse soon to be re-elected to their new minority status. [<—insert more prayers here in case our hand wringing pearl-clutching well-deserved anxieties aren't enough to keep you reading this and you haven't yet breathed into "it's gonna be a landslide and they will have to take it…," not that that is true but could be?]
So one more point, a serious one. Just a little. You can take it. Maybe two or more.
Trump isn't wily or smart. It's lizard brain, I tell you, but that's often quite enough for humans committed to less activating the hippocampus and the important features of the left cortex. He responds like he acts: nothing but approval or reproof registers, if it's not deemed flattery, it will be responded to with hate. The formula never varies. Sanskrit grammar could be easier than this but is no less formulaic. Complex sentences and actual ideas don't fully (or even) register and that is a difference with a distinction.
The jokes Trump tests are made of the same simple dichotomy. He's working out his need for approval but vigilant to the need to respond immediately if it was perceived criticism or taking away attention. It can take a moment for him to catch on if he finds the words or the ideas hard to comprehend, which is much of the time. He compensates by seizing on the bits he can hear which means that we often think he has more going on because _we_ do. We hear the ideas, register the context, think about the meanings. For him its only light, heat, or loss: the signal registers without complexity in a person so incapable of complexity that his normal uses dysfunctional chaos to compensate.
He is not alone among those who can't tell an opinion from an honest argument or don't want to. The conniving and con job has to get clearer to him, no matter how it is received. What we see in his latest 'What if I lose?' bits, now a nightly affair, is more than recognition that the loss is coming and that the threat to his loving cult means losing him. His invitation is that they too can conduct their relationships with everything in this world in similar transactions. You might think that peeps would be insulted or take some kind of subconscious umbrage when he reduces their value to him as _merely_ transactional. But that doesn't seem to apply. He has always insulted, derided, and dismissed his dupes. And then "joked" about it with them. We call this out repeatedly to them, then they cheer, and we ask why, how can they not get it?
The opposite of tranactionalism is caring but it's actually more than that. Yes, it is hard to believe that 60 million people are as uncaring as Trump. Actually they aren't. But that doesn't make them particularly better either. MAGAs do care about things, even people—but not so much other people, people they don't know but can scapegoat or fear or resent or use. It's that empathy thing again raising its complex hood inviting us again to peer into the unfamiliar turning of the consciousness mandala.
To wit, empathy doesn't require giving up your self interests, for reals. Selfless, altruistic, and nothing like the kenotic theology of Phillipians 2:4 are actually required to at least act empathetically. Feeling may be optional but empathic actions usually bring some small bit of better, however temporary. Becoming more resiliently empathetic could take some work or at least repetition. When someone genuinely feels empathy then the idea that one is giving up some self interest is either not important (it can even do unregistered, like how nice your Mom always was) or it can right be another satisfying self-interest. Feeling good or even okay about yourself isn't selfish, it's actually self-care. And abdicating self-care isn't ever a good idea even when you opt for putting yourself in emotional danger or real peril.
When you sacrifice, you can like it, it's okay. Don't get too self-impressed and you won't need to talk about how good you are. Notice that nothing about empathy is yet required. One can really reduce being human to being transactional: we have all the example we need. Of course, survival is neither guaranteed nor necessarily sacrificed. What is given up in the pure transaction is the opportunity to love more, to feel more grief, to be a tad more human and maybe (no promises) the world is a slightly (no promises) better place (maybe).
Sometimes keeping things to the level of honest transactions is the love, the best choice for all. But you can still care. It's optional. It's worth it because that's what makes your soul visible to you in the dark. That's how your inner vision adjusts to the available light that is the soul's yearning to be. Not all souls still yearn after they've been lost to neglect or abuse, resignation or cruelty's sick pleasures. The good news is that it doesn't have to go that way. But you may have to try and keep trying.
We don't need to further opine as to whether there even is a soul or if one can lose it entirely if we consider the idea that soul isn't so much metaphysical or searched for as it is made and cultivated. We need to learn how to become more soulful (art helps, much like love) and all of that can be shown, taught, invited, even a bit cajoled or coerced. We can see how even shame or guilt as strategies of accountability can lead people to become more soulful. And if its genuine then there's growth. It can happen. We've also seen what happens when those decidedly problematic feelings don't appear to exist at all. The soulless Trump is the shameless one for whom empathy is simply unnecessary because the transaction will do. People apparently can be that vacant of heartfulness and, as we know, its ruinous when they also have power.
Things that people don't have to do even if they need to do them are commonplace. Some of those failures involve neglect and lassitude, fear and anger, because there are lots of things involved usually all at once. But complexity is not only the explanation it is, for those unwilling to peer into their souls, the problem. Why do something that is complex _and_ not actually required? You would have to want it, whether that arises naturally or is hard learned. So if we want to feel more soulfully it's because there's some kind of recognition (it can be without awareness, that's okay) that you would actually have to do some work. You need only "know" that there is more to life that surviving on your own terms. When you don't know that or deny it, you're some kind of childish libertarian or something. You know, other people, that's their problem.
But 'It's my life and I'll do what I want' isn't a song about not caring about others. It's a song that makes you think about how to care for yourself when caring about others is just as important. Learning the meaning of that lyric and singing it into being can take time and effort, may require opportunity, maybe even a tad of privilege or privation to come through. It's going to take examples too and that's where Hitchens was a bit off his marks. We don't have to emulate or follow to respect the power and importance of examples. We can care what others do and where those choices or circumstances might lead for worse and for better. The wise person knows not always to lead but to be mindful of following, not abdicating autonomy but delegating empowerment and creating more soul because others are offering theirs. We can't go it all alone even when going together means we'll get lost or frustrated or fail because that happens too. We gotta walk together even when watching our backs because that can only happen when there are people worthy of your trust in _their_ empathy and judgment.
Judgments without empathy? Those are part of what we fear from the likes of Barrett, Alito, Kavanaugh, Thomas, the Originalists who refuse progress for an imaginary liberty that is nothing more than their own preferences imposed. What we can't find any humor in also warrants our attentions. So funny or not, joking or as Trump puts it "just joking," if we dare to ask ourselves what matters we're in for more life and likely better joy even when there are unforeseen consequences. May America choose more wisely than it has. You see even the guy who doesn't pray can say "thoughts and prayers," then laugh holding back the tears, and mean it.
Blogger Blogs, Contrariety, Uncategorized


My lurching attempt to revitalise our YouTube channel brought with it the realisation that creating a video-a-week after editing a podcast-a-week is a lot of additional work. So I did the traditional YouTube thing; I just stopped, and didn't tell anyone. That's a really lousy *out* and has weighed heavy on my mind ever since.
Up steps former KritzKast audio editor Micah, (fresh from editing Podcast76 the Overwatch podcast) looking for challenge. They are going to apply their newly formed skills to undertake KritzKast YouTube revival's re-revival.
What we're looking for is someone (or a group of someones) to work on this in the area neither Micah nor I are particularly good at; i.e. animations. We'd like you to make two to four short animations, for our intro, outro, gallery and 'player of the week'. The first of which (intro) has been storyboarded by Micah below.
We firmly believe in attribution and paying artists for their work. You or your team absolutely will be paid for this work. If this is of interest to you please complete the application below.
Update! We've found our team for the animations. Thanks to everyone who applied.


If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would get done around here.
Have clothes? No Halloween Costume? All you need is a piece of cardboard, a marker, some string, and voila! You're a nudist on Strike.
Trying to show everyone that you just don't care about Halloween and you're only there to party? Well, tape three black circles to you: You've been three hole punched.
Lazy AF but it gets the job done. Pretty clever. Put your friends full name and social to freak em out.
This one may take a little more work, but it's still very creative and I can guarantee you'll be the only one. We all have tinder and we're all very disappointed in the results. Hopefully it works out for you at a party.


Our 2018 Camp Store pre-orders are now closed for the season. Check back in Spring 2019 for our new swag!
We just wanted to thank you for the amazing time our son had at camp Wanapitei. This was his first year, and he did the two week Pioneer program. He wished he could have stayed for the whole month.


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Houston TX Archery Lessons
Find out How to Shoot a Bow in a 7 Day School in Houston
Are you having trouble learning how to shoot a bow? Is the difficulty of finding a class keeping you from a learning? Understand all of the basic principles of archery fast in a one-week lesson. We will teach you the principles of archery like how to stand, set-up, string, aim, release and how to ghoot a bow while moving. Regardless, of where you are at.. you can benefit from customized instruction to meet your skill level.
Archery is a leisure activity, a work of art, and a beach lifestyle. Archery has been shaped and influenced by many archers throughout the years. A 2002 survey and study by American Sports Data found that there are 8.5 million seasoned archers in the world. 85 percent of seasoned archers polled had used a bow in the previous year were under the age of 40, and 59 percent were male.
The largest change has been the developed generation bubble that archeryed in their youth and have grown up with the "X" Games explosion into the global mainstream of competitive sports and sees it as a participation sport for their children led by X-Games Athletes who are affiliated and instruct for our brand and web site.
Location: We have multiple locations in Houston . The exact location depends on which day and time you choose and what level of lessons you need.
Archery Lessons of Houston was developed to help motivated youth demographic become involved in a healthy activity and to keep kids out of drugs and violence.. We take great pride in helping people of all ages learn How to Shoot a Bow.
Archery Lessons is passionate in it's desire to provide the means through it's Archery School to being a confident archeryr, by providing the premiere school for all ages and abilities throughout Texas.
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Since I wanted the whole look to be cohesively boho, I went with both my dream catcher accessories from Forever 21. I love the iridescent stones on the earrings. I've been pretty obsessed with dream catchers lately. I want to find an intricate suede one for my room but haven't found the perfect one yet!
And now here's my take on this gorgeous BCBGeneration dress! I chose this soft taupe color, a change in style to my usual bright colored dresses. I agree that this dress is very comfortable and oh so soft. I think it is suitable in cooler temperatures too because of the soft suede material and it actually keeps us pretty warm.
I usually go for a choker, but this time I decided to go with a giant statement necklace with small silver medallions. Today, I felt like my neck area was very bare and this necklace was the perfect addition for a boho look.
Deciding to keep going on the comfort train (haha get it??), I went with classic black, chunky heels. They're about 0.5 to an inch so they're super comfy. I could probably wear these babies the whole day and still be fine.
PrevPreviousAdventuring in Seoul, South Korea!
Such lovely outfits! You both are so classy and cool.
I'd wear the brown/camel dress all fall long!
I love these faux suede dresses! So perfect for fall and you can so much fun accessorizing with them!
Absolutely loved that little brown dress. looks great on you too.
Love the outfits and the hair!
Those cut-out heels are the bomb!
Your dresses are both so lovely !
You are both so gorgeous and I love how you have both have given different takes on the dress and it suits you so well!
Perfect post. Dresses are beautiful.
Not usually a boho gal, but you two look so cute, I may just have to try it out!!
Wish I had a twin! You two are super cute!


Huma-Saqib experience SUPERNATURAL on 'Dobaara' set!
After Dangal, Salman Khan's 'Tubelight' is all set to release in China!
Deepika Padukone offer prayers post Padmavati set accident?
HONG KONG : Hong Kong stocks rose on Monday, with infrastructure-related stocks surging on news that Beijing plans to set up a special economic zone in the heavily polluted province of Hebei.
Chandigarh, Mar 18 (UNI) Punjab Government today decided to set up a Group of Experts to assess and analyse the quantum of agriculture debt of farmers in the state, and propose ways and means to waive the debt in a time-bound manner.


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text:
Q: How to Combine ARMA + GARCH For Estimates + CI in Python I know I'm trekking down a well beaten path with this type of question, but I find myself trying to clarify how to combine several snippets on the internet and coming up empty handed.  There is one question very similar here, but it does not have an answer.
My situation is very similar to the linked question.  That is:

*

*I'm working in python so rugarch and similar libraries are off the table

*I'd like to combine the outputs of an ARMA + GARCH model to make an estimate + CI

Most of the tutorials I see online in python strike me as misguided, because they are misspecifying various things.
Here's some sample code to get an example working:
# imports
import pandas as pd
import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pmdarima
import arch

# download data
ticker    = yf.Ticker('^GSPC')

data      = ticker.history(period = 'max')
vals      = np.log(data.iloc[:, 3]).diff()
vals.iloc[0] = 0

# fit ARIMA and GARCH models
arima     = pmdarima.auto_arima(X)
residuals = arima.arima_res_.resid * 100
garch     = arch.arch_model(residuals, p = 1, q = 1, dist = 'ged')
garch_fit = garch.fit()
garch_for = garch_fit.forecast(horizon = 1)
mean      = arima.predict(n_periods = 1)[0]

I am familiar with Richard Hardy's advice to git ARMA/GARCH simultaneously, but I am omitting that step for now.
Now, with these fitted models in hand, I continually run into conflicting information.
The first is how you combine the outputs of both into a single prediction.  What I frequently see online (in the python ecosystem, using the above libraries), is you take the ARMA prediction (the mean variable in this case), and then you add it to the predicted mean from GARCH.
So in this case it would look something like this:
# ARMA prediction + GARCH mean prediction for next time step, divided by 100 to scale
mean + forecast.mean['h.1'].iloc[-1] / 100

This has to be wrong, right?  For one, GARCH models are built on the assumption of a constant mean, and so this value is always the same, so I don't see what effect it would have.  I'd think it'd have to be adding the ARMA term + forecasted variance.  In this case it would look like:
# ARMA prediction + GARCH mean prediction for next time step, divided by 100 to scale
mean + forecast.variance['h.1'].iloc[-1] / 100

And the second is that it strikes me as odd that you would add this value and not subtract it as well.  Variance does not have a particular direction, so wouldn't you need to both add and subtract to get the range of values?
Likewise, if we want a true confidence interval, shouldn't we take the standard deviation of the variance?
So something like sd = np.sqrt(forecast.variance['h.1']) and then the confidence interval is mean +/- 1.96 * sd, or something like that?
I know there are a lot of questions here on this very topic, but I don't see any of them specified in this way.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: *ngFor directive iterating the same parameter while incrementing the index I am facing with a problem in Angular. Basically I am looping in a *ngFor an array and the index.
When I enter in a specific condition I want to iterate the same parameter twice while the index is normally incrementing.
HTML

So basically, in that condition, I want to iterate the same parameter p2 twice. How can I do that?

A: ngFor is just a looping construction, if you want to transform the data you're looping over you're (much) better off doing that before you start looping in the template. this could be done by adding a property like this and looping over that instead:
get transformedParams() {
    result = [];
    for (param of this.params) {
        result.push(param);
        if (param.isHidden) {
            result.push(param)
        }
    }
    return result;
}

this way the index will increment normally for every unique item in params but since every item from params is added to transformedParams twice, you'll get two iterations with the same object. This should allow you to do what you want without complicated logic in your template.


text:
🔗The Jewish Collective
France: Major police operation underway as manhunt for Christmas market terrorist continues
by BtNews · December 13, 2018
BREAKING: French police launched a major operation in the south of the city of Strasbourg as hundreds of officers hunt for the Muslim terrorist who murdered 3 people at Strasbourg Christmas market on Tuesday.
Police cars blocked a street as scores of officers carrying rifles and dressed in body armor gathered in the neighborhood of Neudorf, where the terrorist was last seen.
Part of the neighborhood which lies around 2km from the center and 5km from the German border has been cordoned off as specialist Swat teams move in.
Children at a nearby school were placed in lockdown while the operation took place, with parents told not to come and pick them up.
[fvplayer src="https://btnews.online/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/France-Major-police-operation-underway-as-manhunt-for-Christmas-market-terrorist-continues.mp4″ width="848″ height="480″ vi="no"]
A huge manhunt continued in France and Germany on Thursday to track down 29-year-old Cherif Chekatt, the Muslim terrorist behind the terror attack in the center of Strasbourg.
The terrorist shouted "allahu akbar" as he opened fire with a handgun and stabbed passers-by.
The toll now stands at 3 killed and 13 injured, with 5 still in critical condition.
The Strasbourg-born Muslim terrorist was known to authorities for radicalization.
Police revealed that his criminal record includes 25 court convictions, including many for armed robbery. He had been listed as a 'threat to the state' by the French security services.
He was due to be arrested on Tuesday morning for a previous robbery. He was not at home when police arrived, but grenades were found.
German authorities said the terrorist may have fled across the nearby border to the country, where he served multiple prison sentences.
After finishing his sentences in 2017 he was deported back to France, where he had also been in prison.
He also served time in a Swiss jail when, in 2013, he was sentenced to 18 months in Basel for several burglaries.
Members of the public are warned not to approach "the dangerous individual" but to alert authorities by contacting the emergency number 197.
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This gap analysis commissioned by the Humanitarian Innovation Fund (HIF) is the first gap analysis of specific challenges in GBV humanitarian programming through the lens of humanitarian innovation. The analysis and report, conducted by the Small Arms Survey, offers guidance on tangible innovation areas for those working to improve GBV globally to enhance effectiveness and accelerate impact. The research identified "innovation challenges" to address the gaps in GBV programming and aims to engage new actors and partners from different arenas to overcome enduring GBV challenges.
A few of the highlighted considerations and challenges areas above are particularly relevant for results-based Protection.
A results-based approach demands that we start with the affected population and understand how stakeholders at all levels can contribute to addressing a protection issue. By using methods to involve local stakeholders, including the affected population, from the beginning and throughout the program cycle, including analysis, design, implementation, and learning, we can better inform a context-specific analysis of the problem, and ensure that a response is designed and implemented to address the pattern of risk in that specific context.
Results-based protection emphasizes that there are measurable components of a protection response. With a comprehensive, context-specific analysis we can identify the specific patterns of risk we are working to address. By articulating through a causal logic the anticipated changes in attitude/knowledge, behavior, policy, and practice that we are working towards in order to reduce a protection risk, then we can track our progress towards achieving those results. Finally by ensuring effective M&E systems that are designed to help us learn and responsive decision-making and action, we can better ensure flexible and adaptable programming.
– A need for community-level data in order to more effectively monitor and evaluate interventions.
– To use more innovative methods for collecting relevant data that can monitor trends. New technologies—for instance the use of mobile devices, crowd-mapping—are starting to be used by GBV actors in several contexts and are used by other disciplines, for example peacebuilding and development. Encourage information sharing, lessons learned in M&E across humanitarian sectors and also from other fields such as peacebuilding and development.
– To ensure that the proposed evaluation method is suitable for the given context and culture, it should be designed in collaboration with local affected people.
A results-based approach to protection often requires the effort from a multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral set of actors. By identifying, mobilizing, and designing for the contribution of multiple actors, including humanitarian and development actors, we can better understand the unique relationships and synergies for achieving protection outcomes.