text:
\section{TURBULENCE FORECASTS AND CHALLENGES FOR GROUND-BASED ASTRONOMY}
\label{sect:challanges}

The future of the ground-based astronomy relies upon the potentialities and feasibility of the new class of Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) (D $\ge$ $30$ m). In spite of the presence of the atmospherical turbulence, the ground-based observations are still quite competitive with respect to the spatial ones due to the lower financial investment, a longer typical lifetime of telescopes and a better angular resolution attained thanks to the larger pupil sizes of the ground-based telescopes. The latter can be obtained with the employment of the Adaptive Optics (AO) techniques, expressly conceived to reduce/eliminate perturbations produced by the atmospheric turbulence on the wavefronts coming from the stars. Without AO techniques the atmospheric turbulence limits the angular resolution of images to that obtained with a $10$ cm telescope. To correct the turbulence we need to know it. For this reason the characterization of the optical turbulence ($\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles and integrated values) is a crucial element to guarantee successful ground-based observations and feasibility of ELTs. Today astronomers need to know how much turbulence is developed above an observatory and how the turbulence is distributed in the troposphere ($\sim$ $20$ km). This can support, in a suitable way, the selection and scheduling of scientific programs to be realized with different kind of instruments placed at the focus of telescopes (flexible-scheduling), the selection of the best sites for new telescopes and also the employment of the most recent AO techniques such as the Multi-Conjugated Adaptive Optics (MCAO), the Laser Guide Star (LGS) and the tomographic technique.  In spite of the fact that all projects of new ELTs plan to have a flexible-scheduling system to optimize the management of telescopes, no telescope, at present, employs a real flexible-scheduling system based on the forecast of the optical turbulence. At the same time, an efficient search for and selection of the best astronomical sites in the world is difficult to be realized because measurements are not homogeneous, the site testing campaigns are quite expensive and the required time to characterize a site with measurements can extend to decades.\newline

A few instruments, able to measure one or a few of the astroclimatic parameters characterizing the wave-front perturbations induced by the atmospheric turbulence, exist at present. All these instruments provide {\bf local} measurements that can be taken {\it in situ}, as is the case of radiosoundings and instrumented masts, or along a single line of sight, as is the case of optical instruments such as the Generalized Scidar (GS)\cite{VerninAzouit1983,Avila1997}. The numerical technique, more precisely the simulations of the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ provided by atmospherical non-hydrostatic meso-scale models (Meso-Nh)\cite{Masciadri1999a,Masciadri1999b,Masciadri2001a,Masciadri2004} offers, with respect to measurements, a few fundamental advantages: {\bf (1)} the possibility to provide 3D $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ maps above a region having a surface of a few tens of kilometres around a telescope;  {\bf (2)} the possibility to simulate the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ {\it  'where'} and {\it 'when'} it is required without the necessity of long and expensive site testing campaigns done with several instruments and this is particularly interesting for searches of new sites;  {\bf (3)} the possibility to forecast $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles, (a real {\it 'chimera'} for all astronomers), fundamental information for the flexible scheduling of the scientific programs. Astronomical observations related to the most challenging scientific programs frequently can be realized only with excellent turbulence conditions. Our ability in forecasting these particular conditions is thus determinant to progress in astrophysics knowledge. To give a clear idea of the scientific impact of the employment of the flexible scheduling obtained with the forecast of the optical turbulence (OT) I recall that, in 1984, Roddier and Lena\cite{RoddierLena1984}showed that, passing by a $r_{0}$ of $10$ cm to an $r_{0}$ of $20$ cm (equivalent of an improvement of the seeing from $1$ to $0.5$ arcsec) we gain a factor $2$ in the magnitude limit of observed scientific targets. It is possible to show\cite{Veron1996} that, passing by a magnitude limit of $12$ to $14$ in the visible, the number of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) detectable from the ground and having a declination between -$70$$^{\circ}$ and +$10$$^{\circ}$, increases from $5$ to $100$. The impact of the scientific feedback obtained with these studies is therefore particularly important. \newline

\begin{figure*}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=7cm]{mascia1_fig1.eps}
\caption{Cumulative histogram of AGN magnitudes $V$ ($V$ $\leq$ 15) for a declination in
the [$-70$, $+10$] degrees range (V\'eron-Cetty \& V\'eron, 1996)}
\label{win_sum_wind}
\end{figure*}

The reconstruction of the optical turbulence done with atmospherical models is extremely important not only for the {\it forecasting} but also in different other contexts. I remind here a few of these contexts trying to put in evidence the potentiality of these studies in future applications to the High Angular Resolution.  \newline

During the past few years it was proven that the limitations of the AO techniques due to the turbulence change as the AO techniques evolve and proceed\footnote{Ragazzoni et al.,\cite{Ragazzoni2000} for example, proved that the wavefront perturbations at an altitude $h$ can be described by a modal tomographic matrix M that depends on the altitude $h$ and the relative strength of the perturbed layers in the whole atmosphere $M$$=$$M($\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$)$. The typical lifetime $\tau_{M}$ of the matrix M should be therefore estimated to optimize this technique.}. For this reason, it would be quite useful to develop a flexible tool that can characterize the turbulence in an exhaustive way and that can easily be modified in order to satisfy new requirements of the AO techniques and the site testing without the necessity to conceive and build new dedicated instruments. The numerical technique is the only tool having such flexibility. In application to a GLAO system, for example, it might be relatively easy to increase the vertical resolution of a model in proximity of the ground to better reconstruct the turbulence distribution and resolve thin layers (hundreds or tens of meters) in the first kilometer. A GLAO system, indeed, is a wide field AO system and is therefore characterized by a short depth of field. For this reason to optimize a GLAO system we necessarily need, at the same time, to characterize the turbulence with a vertical resolution of the order of few tens of meters and to know this vertical distribution at different lines of sight. Due to the presence of orographic effects the approximation of uniform horizontal distribution of the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$, normally assumed for most of applications to the AO, might be no more acceptable and might badly describe the reality if we look at the turbulence with a high vertical resolution in the surface and boundary layer. 3D $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ maps might be therefore fundamental to optimize a GLAO system.\newline

In the last years astronomers discovered that the climatology of the optical turbulence is a quite critical information that necessarily should be taken into account in the selection of the best astronomical sites. It is well known the case of Cerro Paranal, selected in the 1990 as the best site for the VLT. Drastic changes in the climatology of meteorologic parameters above the Cerro Paranal Chilean region produced a deterioration of the quality of this site characterized, at present, by a worse median seeing than during the nineties. The climatology of the optical turbulence (as the climatology of whatever meteorological parameter) has to be necessarily done with atmospherical models particularly if we want to access it on whatever geographic coordinates above the earth. The atmospheric models, differently from measurements, permits us to extend our knowledge to the past that is to access something happened in the past. The possibility to reconstruct the turbulence climatology vertical distribution in the past can permit us to better evaluate and understand the turbulence characteristics above whatever site and to extrapolate its future trends. At present, the non-hydrostatics meso-scale models are the best tool that might produce a climatology of the optical turbulence extended to decades. Only these models, indeed, can resolve the typical high spatial and temporal fluctuation scales characterizing the optical turbulence. \newline

The financial resources invested in ground-based astronomy are huge and only an efficient management of these structures and instruments can get ground-based astronomy competitive versus the spatial one. The success of ELTs will pass necessarily by the implementation of a reliable and efficient flexible-scheduling system and the optical turbulence forecast made by atmospherical models will be necessarily a crucial element in the future operation strategy of new generation ground-based telescopes.

The numerical technique is, at present, the only one that can provide 3D $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ maps and the forecast of the optical turbulence. It is the only technique able to potentially characterize a huge number of sites in the world, permitting an efficient selection done in homogeneous way. However, the ability in {\bf forecasting} the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ maps has not yet been proved; this justifies the need for further studies in this field. \newline

A project, FOROT, has been recently funded by the European Community (Marie Curie Excellence - FP6 Program) to boost studies of the optical turbulence forecast. In Section \ref{art} I will summarize the status of art of our knowledge and the main results already obtained in this field. In Section \ref{scient_tec} I will summarize the scientific and technological objectives of FOROT. In Section \ref{syner} I will give a general panorama of international synergies that we joint to carry out this project. In Section \ref{conc} I will present my conclusions.

\section{Status of Art}
\label{art}

Chris Coulman\cite{Coulman1986}(1986) was the first to exhort collaborations between astronomers and meteorologists to solve the problem of the forecast of the optical turbulence. It was only in $1995$ that this invitation was accepted\cite{Bougeault1995}.
 The authors\cite{Bougeault1995} proposed to use a hydrostatic model (PERIDOT)
developed in the Centre
National des Rech\`erches M\'et\'eorologiques (CNRM/M\'eteo France - Toulouse, Fr)
linked
with an orographic model having a horizontal resolution of $3$ and $10$ km
to resolve the orographic waves produced by the friction of the atmospheric flow over the ground.
Good qualitative results were obtained but the turbulence was, in general,
underestimated because of a relatively low horizontal resolution.
In the same year a different approach has been proposed\cite{DeYoung1995}
using an orographic model and atmospheric model
having a very high resolution (about $10$ m) extended over a surface of
a few hundreds of meters. They tested their model over the Mauna Kea and Cerro
Pach\'on sites. The limit of this work was an idealized initialization of the model
and a simplified turbulent equation that did not consider the buoyancy
forces which are the principal cause of the production of gravity waves.\newline

In $1999$ it was proposed\cite{Masciadri1999a,Masciadri1999b} to use the non-hydrostatic
model Meso-Nh linked with an orographic model having an horizontal resolution higher than $1$ km. For the first time the validation of an atmospherical model was done comparing directly the measured and simulated $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles. Since these first results I could obtained new results and achieved better performances of the Meso-Nh model. Which is the status of art at present ?\newline

The main scientific results obtained so far and starting point for the project FOROT are:
\begin{itemize}

\item We could prove that the parametrization of the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ is possible, that means that we are able to produce reliable $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$.
This result was not evident a priori due to the fact that the optical turbulence has typical spatial and temporal scales of fluctuation smaller than those of the standard meteorological parameters and it can not be explicitly resolved by the model over the whole troposphere.
\item We validated the model above two among the best astronomical sites in the world (Cerro Paranal\cite{Masciadri1999a,Masciadri1999b} and Roque de los Muchachos\cite{Masciadri2001a}). We proved that measured and simulated $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles well match from a {\it qualitative} (comparable shape) and {\it quantitative} (comparable integral over the $25$ km) point of view. At the same time we put in evidence some limitation and possible improvements to be implemented in the model.
\item A new method\cite{MasciadriJabouille2001} to calibrate the Meso-Nh model has been proposed to eliminate some potential systematic errors and improve the reliability of the model.
\item More recently the Meso-Nh model has been statistically validated\cite{Masciadri2004} comparing simulated and measured $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles obtained during the site testing campaign SPM2000 above San Pedro M\'artir (Mexico)\cite{Avila2004}. Figure \ref{cn2_mnh_sci_bal} shows the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ vertical profiles simulated by the Meso-Nh model and measured by a Generalized Scidar and balloons. These are mean values obtained over $10$ nights. The main and fundamental result obtained in this study is that we showed that the dispersion between simulations and measurements ($\Delta \varepsilon_{GS,model}$) is comparable to the dispersion between measurements provided by different instruments ($\Delta \varepsilon_{GS,balloons}$):
\begin{equation}
\Delta \varepsilon_{GS,model} = \Delta \varepsilon_{GS,balloons} \sim 30 \%
\label{eq1}
\end{equation}
This result showed that the numerical technique can be considered, at present, a reliable technique to estimate $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles and, after a calibration, it can be used in an autonomous way to simulate $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles. I would like to underline a point that is fundamental from the point of view of perspectives of the basic research in this field. The strength of the result summarized in Eq.\ref{eq1} is that, in spite of the fact that performances of this model can be improved in the future, at present we can state that the reconstruction of the optical turbulence made with an atmospherical model such as Meso-Nh is done with an accuracy (dispersion from the true) that is not worse than what obtained by measurements.

For the not-experienced reader it is worth to underline that we are talking here about statistical comparison i.e. median and mean values on one or a set of nights. No comparison between measurements and simulations is possible, at least at present, on time scale of minutes.

\item We completed the first seasonal variation study\cite{MasciadriEgner2005,MasciadriEgner2005bis} of the vertical distribution of the optical turbulence ($\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles) and all integrated astroclimatic parameters ($\varepsilon$, $\theta_{0}$, $\tau_{0}$, $\theta_{M}$, $\mbox{${\cal L}_0 \ $}$) above the San Pedro M\'artir site (Baja California). This study has been particularly important because permitted us to show the real potentialities of the simulations. $80$ $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ and wind speed vertical profiles uniformly distributed in one year permitted us to calculate all the derived astroclimatic parameters and even the optimal altitude at which to conjugate the DMs of a MCAO system having 1, 2 and 3 DMs. The numerical technique permitted us to put in evidence the gain obtained in changing the optimal conjugation heights of the deformable mirrors of a MCAO system in winter and summer time.

\item We could prove that meso-scale models can discriminate and identify sites having particularly weak wind speed near the ground while GCMs can not\cite{Masciadri2003}. Moreover, the relative error $\Delta r$ between the measured and reconstructed wind speed near the ground obtained by meso-scale models is 27-47 $\%$ smaller than what obtained by the General Circulation Models such as those of the ECMWF. These last are weakly reliable in proximity of the surface due to the fact that orographic effects are badly represented by such a models.
\end{itemize}

\begin{figure}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=9cm]{f1.eps}
\caption{Mean vertical $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles measured and simulated over the
whole SPM2000 campaign. Bold line: GS. Thin line: radiosoundings. Dotted line: Meso-Nh model. The relative total seeing obtained from the integration of the $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles is: $0.79$ arcsec (GS), $1.07$ arcsec (balloons), $0.93$ arcsec (Meso-Nh model).
\label{cn2_mnh_sci_bal}}
\end{figure}

\section{Scientific and Technological Goals}
\label{scient_tec}

This discipline necessarily needs to pass now to a new dimension to completely exploit its potentialities. This leap ahead has to be done in two directions: research and technology. The FOROT Project moves from these motivations.\newline\newline
\noindent
{\bf Research} The project FOROT (funded by the FP6 Program - Marie Curie Excellence) is conceived to reach two main scientific goals: {\bf (1)} to prove/test the ability of the non-hydrostatic meso-scale models in forecasting the optical turbulence and {\bf (2)} to prove/test the ability of these models in discriminating the quality (from the turbulence point of view) of astronomical sites. I remind that we are talking of differences of the order of decimal fractions of arcseconds.
To concretize our studies and better focalize our objectives we decided to apply this technique in two different regions of the world.
\begin{itemize}
\item {\bf Mt. Graham (Arizona)}, site of the Large Binocular Telescope.\newline
{\it Main Scientific goal:} to test the model ability in forecasting the optical turbulence.
\item {\bf Antarctic Plateau (Dome C, South Pole and Dome A)}.\newline
{\it Main Scientific goal:} to test the model ability in discriminating sites above the Antarctic Plateau.
These three pre-selected sites are well known by the astronomical community to be among the best on this continent for astrophysical science. At South Pole a base exists since several years. At Dome C, an Italo-French base (Concordia) is being built and a set of projects of small-medium size telescopes and interferometers is planned by several international consortia. Dome A has not yet been explored and monitored so far but it might be even better than Dome C due to a higher altitude of the site. The main idea is to validate and calibrate the model above Dome C and South Pole using the measurements done so far above these two sites. After the calibration, the model should be able to simulate the turbulence above Dome A with a high level of reliability.
\end{itemize}
\noindent
{\bf Technology} The numerical technique applied to astronomy needs, to be effective, to pass to a technological development aiming to get operational a nightly forecasting of the optical turbulence above an astronomical site. In this project we plan to install the Meso-Nh model on an autonomous machine (instead of supercomputers of meteorologic centers) to be able to run in a systematic way the model above the astronomical sites. This will allow us to do a great leap in the direction of an implementation of the real flexible-scheduling system but still remaining in a research dimension. Astronomers need to appropriate of a tool (atmospherical model) usually employed by meteorologists. A careful work in the development of interfaces between the autonomous machine and the data archives of the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has to be done to permit us to initialize the Meso-Nh model with analyses and forecasts produced by the General Circulation Models from ECMWF. As Fig.\ref{res} shows, a leap in the technology field can trigger further studies and get more challenging some scientific goals. An efficient closed loop can be installed between research and technology promoting progress in both directions.

\begin{figure}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=9cm]{res_tec.eps}
\caption{Schematic diagram showing the nature of mutual interactions between research and technology (see text).
\label{res}}
\end{figure}

\section{International Synergies}
\label{syner}

Measurements are an important element for
studies of the atmospheric turbulence made with
atmospheric models. Measurements are crucial to validate this kind of models
and to supply strength to the numerical methodology. In our project (FOROT) we tried to catalyze international
synergies in order to collect existent measurements and to assure a future supply of critical measurements.

Above Mt. Graham, since a couple of year, we have started to run a Generalized Scidar (GS/LBT) at the focus of the VATT ($1.75$ m) placed some tens meters far away from the LBT. $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles related to $16$ nights\cite{Egner2006} have been collected so far. Further GS/LBT runs are planned in the future months/years and will be taken care by the FOROT Group. This activity has been supported by the VATT staff and the LBT Consortium (Steward Observatory-Arizona, INAF/Arcetri-Italy, MPIA-Germany). Two anemometers, placed on the roof of the LBT and beside the dome of the VATT, have permitted us to validate the wind speed measured by the GS/LBT near the ground. Further instrumentation, mainly addressed to turbulence measurements, is planned in the near future to be tested/installed above Mt. Graham.

Above the Antarctic Plateau we will be able to use a set of optical turbulence measurements of different nature ($\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ vertical profiles measured with radiosoundings and optical instruments, integrated values such as seeing $\varepsilon$ and isoplanatic angle $\theta_{0}$) that during the last decade have been done by a few teams who are involved in site testing studies above the Antarctic Plateau. Among these the LUAN Team (Nice, France) and the Team of the New South Wales University (Sydney, Australia). The French group will provide us $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ vertical profiles taken by a Single Star Scidar (SSS) and radiosoundings, measurements of seeing ($\varepsilon$) and isoplanatic angle ($\theta_{0}$) provided by DIMMs placed at different altitudes from the ground\cite{Aristidi2005,Agabi2006}. All these measurements have been taken above Dome C during the summer and winter time.
The Australian group will provide us meteorological parameters and $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ profiles taken above South Pole some years ago\cite{Marks96,Marks99}. Above Dome C it is possible to register, in this moment, several activities related to the site testing. We hope/expect therefore to include in the set of measurements of reference further ones such as those obtained by a lunar SHABAR\cite{Moore2006} (INAF Arcetri, Italy/CELT, USA).\newline

In the context of the measurements/simulations (from atmospherical models) comparison it is worth to mention that the level of accuracy reached so far in estimating and quantifying the atmospheric optical turbulence employing different instruments is of the order of $20$-$30$ $\%$. As already said in Section \ref{art}, indeed, a discrepancy of $\sim$$30$$\%$ has been found between the seeing measured by balloons and a GS\cite{Masciadri2004} above San Pedro M\'artir. A similar value ($\sim$$30$$\%$) has been found above Cerro Tololo\cite{Vernin1998} between balloons and a GS. Balloons provide $\mbox{$C_N^2 \ $}$ vertical profiles with an intrinsic accuracy of the order of $20$-$30$$\%$ as the same authors declare\cite{Vernin2005}. If we compare optical instruments (vertical profilers) such as the GS and the MASS we find a dispersion of the seeing ($\varepsilon$) of $\sim$$20$$\%$ in the range $8$-$16$ km\cite{Toko2005}. However, in the first $4$ km, the typical dispersion of the seeing ($\varepsilon$) can reach values of the order of $\sim$$50$-$100$$\%$\cite{Toko2005}. Of course, this does not want to be a criticism of measurements but only a definition of the accuracy with which we can estimate, at present, the turbulence. This is a crucial element if one intends to reconstruct the turbulence with an atmospheric model and define a score of success.\newline
If we look at instruments measuring integrated values of the turbulence, things are not different. Recently\cite{Agabi2006}, values of the isoplanatic angle ($\theta_{0}$) have been measured by a DIMM ($4.7$ arcsec) and balloons ($2.7$ arcsec) above Dome C in the Antarctic Plateau in the same period during the winter time. The discrepancy of these measurements is of the order of $\sim$ $50$$\%$. This dispersion is quite worried because, due to the fact that $\theta_{0}$ is weakly dependent from the turbulence in the ground layer, $\theta_{0}$ should be mostly affected by the turbulence in the free atmosphere. The height at which the DIMM is placed and the spurious values provided by the balloons in the first tens meters should therefore weakly affected the $\theta_{0}$.  There are no reasons therefore that these two results are so different even taking into account the factors just described (height of the DIMM and spurious values provided by the balloons in the first tens meters). Such a large discrepancy suggests the necessity of further measurements to dissipate doubts, verify that no bias are included in one of two or both instruments and definitely estimate $\theta_{0}$ in winter time.

Several factors contribute to this not negligible dispersion between measurements but, as we explained with the previous examples, is certainly not only due to a statistical uncertainty. Among the causes: systematic errors, intrinsic complexity of the phenomenon itself, techniques of measurements strongly different that sometime get hard any comparison between measurements provided by different instruments. As a consequence also comparisons between measurements and simulations has to be done quite carefully. It is fundamental to use as many as possible measurements taken contemporary and provided by different instruments in order to define a sort of {\it accuracy of reference} that can be compared to the accuracy of simulations. It is evident that this is necessary to define a {\it score of success} of simulations. We exhort therefore, for the present and the future, a quite tight collaboration between the FOROT group and the other teams involved so far in site testing activity in trying to jointly planning campaigns of measurements taking into account the necessity to define an {\it accuracy of reference}. This implies the necessity of more site testing campaigns aiming to quantify the turbulence but also to cross-check instruments to understand {\it where} there are still problems/uncertainties and how to solve them. This should provide a useful information not only for studies related to the turbulence forecast but to the whole ground-based astronomy.

\section{Conclusion}
\label{conc}

In this paper the main scientific and technological goals of the project FOROT are presented. FOROT finds its main motivations on fundamental challenges for the success of the future ground-based astronomy. I described how the reconstruction of the optical turbulence above astronomical sites done with atmospherical models at meso-scale can be useful to answer to major open questions in the field of the characterization of the optical turbulence and represents the natural answer to the need of the turbulence forecast and turbulence climatology. We will not have a real flexible-scheduling system without turbulence forecast.\newline
The road for this final goal pass necessarily by a further development of this discipline at a basic research level and we need to catalyze international synergies to maximize the success of this project and put the bases for a future of this discipline. FOROT intends to be a first step on this road-map.

\acknowledgments

This work is funded by a Marie Curie Excellence Grant (FOROT)
MEXT-CT-2005-023878 - FP6 Program.\newline
I thanks all the collaborators who participated, at different levels, to these researches in the past:
Jean Vernin, Philippe Bougeault, Patrick Jabouille, Remy Avila, Leonardo Sanchez, Tania Garfias, Sebastian Egner and Kerstin Geissler. \newline
I also would like
 to thanks a few scientists who supported these unusual researches: Irene Cruz Gonzalez and Piero Salinari.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaArXiv


text:
Genworth Financial Reports Third Quarter 2004 Earnings
Three months ended September 30, 2004 2003 Per Per diluted diluted Total share Total share (Amounts in millions, except per (Unaudited) share amounts)
Net earnings from continuing operations $271 $0.55 $230 $0.47
Pro forma net earnings from continuing operations $273 $0.56 $210 $0.43
Pro forma net operating earnings $271 $0.55 $216 $0.44
RICHMOND, Va.
Genworth Financial, Inc. today reported net earnings from continuing operations for the third quarter of 2004 of $271 million, or $0.55 per diluted share, compared with $230 million or $0.47 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2003.
In connection with the company's initial public offering (IPO) completed on May 28, 2004, the company effected a corporate reorganization that included a series of significant reinsurance, recapitalization and separation transactions. As more fully explained at the end of this release, the company is presenting pro forma financial information that reflects those transactions to enable a more meaningful comparison of its period-to-period results.
Pro forma net earnings from continuing operations in the third quarter of 2004 were $273 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, compared to $210 million or $0.43 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2003.
Pro forma net operating earnings for the third quarter of 2004 were $271 million, or $0.55 per diluted share, up 25 percent from $216 million or $0.44 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2003. Pro forma net operating earnings in the third quarter of 2004 consist of pro forma net earnings from continuing operations, excluding after-tax net realized investment gains of $2 million. Pro forma net operating earnings in the third quarter of 2003 consist of pro forma net earnings from continuing operations, excluding after- tax net realized investment losses of $6 million.
Management believes that the presentation of net operating earnings enhances understanding and comparability of performance by highlighting underlying business activity and profitability drivers. However, net operating earnings should not be viewed as a substitute for net earnings prepared under accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. (GAAP). (Please refer to the disclosure at the end of this release for a discussion of the basis on which financial information is presented in this release.)
"We continue to build on our three long-term growth platforms in protection, retirement and mortgage insurance -- demonstrating strength in sales of fixed annuities, an upturn in term life sales, and continued robust growth in the international mortgage insurance arena," said Michael D. Fraizer, chairman and chief executive officer.
"We are on track to deliver pro forma net operating earnings for full-year 2004 of between $2.14 and $2.17 per share and we expect to end the year with pro forma net operating return on equity (ROE) in the 9.8 to 10 percent range," Fraizer said. "Looking to 2005, we expect to achieve net operating earnings per share growth in the 10 to 12 percent range. This marks real progress toward our goal of a 12 percent ROE by 2008. We continue to optimize our business mix toward higher return products and markets and have focused expense discipline and capital management."
Key Third Quarter Operating Highlights
* In the Protection segment, term life insurance sales improved 13
percent on a sequential quarter basis to $26 million as a result of
recently implemented price reductions together with ongoing service and
distribution support initiatives.  Universal life insurance sales were
up 11 percent on a sequential quarter basis, reflecting market
receptivity to new products for the age 50+ market introduced in the
second quarter.  Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) sales, excluding
runoff business(1), were up 18 percent compared to the third quarter of
2003, driven by strong growth in southern Europe.
* Retirement Income & Investments (RI&I) sales of fixed annuities were up
126 percent to $653 million from the third quarter of 2003 and grew 76
percent on a sequential quarter basis, reflecting strong distribution
relationships and flexible product features.  Sales of the company's
income distribution series products(2) more than doubled over the
comparable prior year quarter to $70 million and were up 11 percent on
a sequential quarter basis.
* Mortgage Insurance (MI) continued its international expansion, with
international insurance in-force (IIF) up $47 billion, or 40 percent
over the prior year quarter; up 33 percent after excluding favorable
foreign currency effects (FX).
"Looking across the progress we have demonstrated so far in 2004, we believe it is imperative that our industry help create awareness of the growing need for personal protection safety nets and dependable retirement income in the face of longer life spans and burgeoning health and long-term care costs," Fraizer said. "At the same time, we are extending our global reach in helping more consumers achieve homeownership through the use of mortgage insurance. Genworth's focused capabilities and execution continue to strengthen its foundation for future growth and improved returns to shareholders."
(1) In the third quarter of 2003, the company evaluated its contractual
relationships with PPI distributors against targeted return thresholds
and made decisions to terminate or non-renew certain contracts which
the company refers to as "non-core" or "runoff." Existing business
under these contracts will runoff over several years in the normal
course of business.
(2) Income distribution series products are comprised of the company's
retirement income annuity product and two variable annuity riders that
provide similar income features. The term does not include immediate
annuities or fixed annuities, which also serve income distribution
needs but are reported separately in the company's third quarter
financial supplement.
Pro Forma Consolidated Operating Results
The company operates in three primary business segments: Protection, Retirement Income & Investments, and Mortgage Insurance, in addition to a Corporate and Other Segment.
Consolidated third quarter pro forma net operating earnings growth of 25 percent was driven by increases in all business segments over the comparable quarter in the prior year and included $4 million of favorable FX. RI&I Segment pro forma net operating earnings grew to $42 million in the third quarter of 2004 from $15 million in the third quarter of 2003. Growth was primarily driven by higher sales and improved spreads in the fixed annuity product line and higher fee income due to new contracts in 2004 to manage GE's municipal guaranteed investment contracts (GIC) business. Corporate and Other Segment pro forma net operating earnings improved to a loss of $8 million in the third quarter of 2004 as compared to a loss of $24 million in the third quarter of 2003 primarily due to the absence of litigation settlement costs which occurred in 2003. MI Segment pro forma net operating earnings increased 10 percent, from $93 million in the third quarter 2003 to $102 million in the third quarter of 2004, due primarily to continued strong growth internationally and $3 million of favorable FX. Protection Segment pro forma net operating earnings increased 2 percent to $135 million as compared to $132 million in the prior year quarter primarily due to business growth and lower legal expenses in life insurance, offset by declines in both PPI and group.
All segment information below is presented on a pro forma basis. Segment pro forma net operating earnings presented are equivalent to pro forma net earnings for all segments except Corporate and Other. For a reconciliation of the Corporate and Other Segment pro forma net operating earnings to GAAP net earnings, see the disclosure at the end of this release.
Pro Forma Segment Net Operating Earnings
Pro forma net operating earnings (unaudited)
(Dollar amounts in millions)                            Q3 04     Q3 03
Life                                                     $61       $52
Long term care                                            43        42
Payment protection                                        21        25
Group                                                     10        13
Total Protection     $135      $132
Payment protection                                       397       648
Protection Segment pro forma net operating earnings increased $3 million from the prior year quarter due primarily to business growth and lower legal expenses in life insurance, offset by a decline in earnings in PPI and group. Long term care insurance (LTC) pro forma net operating earnings were up slightly to $43 million, as compared to the third quarter of 2003, as business growth and claims favorability was offset by higher deferred acquisition cost amortization and by $3 million of lost investment income in the third quarter of 2004 from the reallocation to the Corporate and Other Segment of approximately $250 million of excess capital. PPI pro forma net operating earnings, $21 million in the third quarter of 2004 as compared with $25 million in the third quarter of 2003, were negatively impacted by $4 million due to a higher effective tax rate subsequent to our separation from GE and the continued runoff of low return books of business. Group pro forma net operating earnings were down from the prior year due to favorable claims experience in 2003 that did not recur in the current year.
Sales of term life were $26 million in the third quarter of 2004, compared with $24 million in the comparable prior year period; growth reflected recently implemented price reductions together with ongoing service and distribution support initiatives. Universal life sales were $10 million in the third quarter of 2004 as compared with $15 million in the third quarter of 2003. LTC sales decreased to $39 million in the third quarter of 2004 from $62 million in the prior year quarter. As planned, overall PPI sales declined from $648 million in the third quarter of 2003 to $397 million in the third quarter of 2004 reflecting our strategic decision to exit lower return distribution relationships. PPI sales, excluding runoff business, grew 18 percent from $330 million in the third quarter of 2003 to $390 million in the third quarter of 2004 due to growth in the southern European region. Group sales increased 22 percent in the current year quarter as compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting growth in non-medical products.
Retirement Income & Investments
(Dollar amounts in millions)                            Q3 04       Q3 03
Spread retail                                            $26          $6
Fee retail                                                12           4
Spread institutional                                       4           5
Total RI&I            $42         $15
Spread retail                                           $929        $583
Fee retail                                               521         891
Spread institutional                                     580         334
Total RI&I         $2,030      $1,808
RI&I pro forma net operating earnings were $42 million for the third quarter of 2004 compared to $15 million in the prior year period. This growth reflects improved spreads on increased retail assets under management, strong business growth in fixed annuities, as well as an $8 million increase in fee retail products driven primarily by new contracts in 2004 to manage GE's municipal GIC business. Spread institutional pro forma net operating earnings decreased $1 million to $4 million in the 2004 quarter as compared to $5 million in the 2003 quarter, primarily due to a 6 percent decline in average assets under management related to the planned reduction of participation in the floating-rate funding agreement market.
Third quarter 2004 sales of spread retail products were up $346 million as compared to the prior year quarter, driven primarily by a 126 percent increase in sales of fixed annuities. Fixed annuity sales increased due to expanded relationships in the bank channel and flexible product features. Sales of fee retail products declined $370 million from the prior year quarter as the market continued to shift to products with a variety of guarantees, many of which the company elected not to offer. Sales of Genworth's income distribution series products were up 120 percent to $70 million in the quarter as compared to the prior year quarter. The increase in sales of spread institutional products from $334 million to $580 million relates primarily to uneven flows from large contracts.
Mortgage Insurance Segment
International                                            $50         $42
United States                                             52          51
Total Mortgage Insurance       $102         $93
International                                        $13,163     $13,026
United States                                          6,206      17,207
Total Mortgage Insurance    $19,369     $30,233
Mortgage insurance pro forma net operating earnings grew $9 million (including $3 million of favorable FX) to $102 million in the third quarter of 2004, from $93 million in the third quarter of 2003, due primarily to continued strong growth internationally, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate subsequent to our separation from GE. Growth in international pro forma net operating earnings reflected strong revenue growth while loss ratios remained low. U.S. pro forma net operating earnings were up $1 million over the prior year quarter as a result of lower underwriting expenses and higher net investment income resulting from investment portfolio repositioning, partially offset by lower insurance in-force levels.
International new insurance written was $13 billion, nearly flat as compared to the year ago period, reflecting a smaller mortgage origination market in Australia. This was offset by increased account penetration in both Canada and Australia as well as growth in new insurance written in Europe. U.S. new insurance written was $6 billion in the current year quarter, down from $17 billion in the prior year, as a result of a significantly smaller mortgage origination market and actions taken since the third quarter in 2003 to restructure certain excess of loss risk sharing arrangements.
Corporate and Other Segment (unaudited)              Q3 04       Q3 03
Pro forma net operating earnings
(Dollar amounts in millions)                          ($8)       ($24)
Corporate and Other Segment pro forma net operating earnings improved to a loss of $8 million in the third quarter of 2004 as compared to a loss of $24 million in the third quarter of 2003 primarily due to the absence of litigation settlement costs which occurred in 2003.
Shareholders equity at September 30, 2004 was $12.2 billion, or $24.89 per share. Shareholders' equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, at September 30, 2004 was $10.9 billion. Book value per share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, increased to $22.35 at September 30, 2004, compared to $21.84 at June 30, 2004.
Earnings Conference Call Information
The company will hold a conference call on October 22 from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. (EDT) to discuss third quarter results and business outlook.
The company's conference call will be accessible via telephone and the Internet. A third-quarter financial supplement and conference call materials will be available on the company's website when released. Investors are encouraged to review all of these materials. To access the web cast, go to http://www.genworth.com/ at least 15 minutes prior to the event to register and download and install any necessary software. To access the call by telephone, please dial 1-800-599-9795 (U.S.) or 1-617-786-2905 (outside the U.S.) and enter the access code 54592399 to register. A replay of the call will be available from 1 p.m. EDT on October 22 through October 29, 2004 by dialing 1- 888-286-8010 in the U.S. or 1-617-801-6888 (outside the U.S.) and entering the access code 97756063. The call will also be replayed at the company's website during this same time period.
Strategic Update for Investors in December 2004
The company plans to hold a strategic update for investors on December 15, 2004 at its headquarters in Richmond, Virginia. This full-day meeting will be web cast and archived on the company's website. Detailed information will be provided at a future date.
Basis of Historical and Pro Forma Financial Information
As part of a corporate reorganization effected in connection with the company's IPO, the company acquired substantially all of the assets and liabilities of GE Financial Assurance Holdings, Inc. (GEFAHI), an indirect subsidiary of GE. The company also acquired certain other insurance businesses that were owned by other GE subsidiaries but managed by members of the company's management team. In consideration for the assets that the company acquired and the liabilities that the company assumed, the company issued various equity and debt securities to GEFAHI.
The company has prepared its historical financial information as if the company had been in existence throughout all relevant periods. The historical financial information through the date of the corporate reorganization (May 24, 2004) includes all businesses that were owned by GEFAHI, including those that were not transferred to the company, as well as the other insurance businesses that the company acquired from other GE subsidiaries in connection with the corporate reorganization. As a result, the company's historical financial information for periods prior to the corporate reorganization is not comparable to historical financial information for periods ending after that date.
Prior to the completion of the IPO, the company entered into several significant reinsurance transactions with Union Fidelity Life Insurance Company (UFLIC), an indirect subsidiary of GE. As part of these transactions, the company ceded to UFLIC, effective as of January 1, 2004, policy obligations under all of its in-force structured settlement contracts, which had reserves of $12.0 billion, and substantially all of its in-force variable annuity contracts, which had general account reserves of $2.8 billion and separate account reserves of $7.9 billion, each as of December 31, 2003. These contracts represent substantially all of the company's contracts that were in force as of December 31, 2003 for these products. In addition, effective as of January 1, 2004, the company ceded to UFLIC policy obligations under a block of long-term care insurance policies, which had reserves of $1.5 billion as of December 31, 2003. As part of the reinsurance transactions, UFLIC ceded to the company in-force blocks of Medicare supplement insurance, which had reserves of $19 million.
The unaudited pro forma financial information contained in this press release reflects the company's historical combined financial information as adjusted to give effect to the transactions described below and certain other transactions as if each had occurred as of January 1, 2003:
* the removal of certain businesses of GEFAHI that were not transferred
to the company in connection with the corporate reorganization;
* the reinsurance transactions with UFLIC;
* the issuance of equity and debt securities to GEFAHI in exchange for
the assets that the company acquired and the liabilities that the
company assumed in connection with the corporate reorganization; and
* the issuance and sale of $1.9 billion of senior notes and $500 million
of commercial paper and the application of the proceeds therefrom.
The unaudited pro forma financial information is based upon available information and assumptions that the company believes are reasonable. The unaudited pro forma financial information is for illustrative and informational purposes only and is not intended to represent or be indicative of what the company's financial condition or results of operations would have been had the transactions described above occurred on the dates indicated, nor what they may be in the future.
This press release includes the non-GAAP financial measure entitled "net operating earnings." The company defines net operating earnings as pro forma net earnings from continuing operations, excluding pro forma after-tax net realized investment gains and losses (which can fluctuate significantly from period to period), changes in accounting principles and non-recurring, infrequent or unusual items. There were no non-recurring, infrequent or unusual items excluded from pro forma net operating earnings for the periods presented in this press release, other than a $22 million tax charge arising from the company's separation from GE in the nine months ended September 30, 2004. Management believes that analysis of net operating earnings enhances understanding and comparability of performance by highlighting underlying business activity and profitability drivers. However, net operating earnings should not be viewed as a substitute for GAAP net earnings. In addition, the company's definition of net operating earnings may differ from the definitions used by other companies. The table at the end of this press release provides a reconciliation of historical and pro forma net operating earnings to historical and pro forma net earnings.
Due to the unpredictable nature of the items excluded from the company's definition of net operating earnings, the company is unable to reconcile its outlook for net operating earnings to net earnings from continuing operations presented in accordance with GAAP. The company's outlook for pro forma net operating earnings is presented on a basis consistent with the other pro forma financial information presented elsewhere in this press release.
This press release also includes outlook regarding a non-GAAP financial measure entitled "net operating earnings return on equity," or ROE. The company defines ROE as net operating earnings divided by average pro forma stockholders' interest, excluding accumulated non-owner changes in average stockholders' interest (commonly referred to as accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI)). Management believes that analysis of ROE enhances understanding of the efficiency with which the company deploys its capital. However, ROE as defined by the company should not be viewed as a substitute for GAAP net earnings divided by average stockholders' interest. Due to the unpredictable nature of net operating earnings and average stockholders' interest excluding AOCI, the company is unable to reconcile its outlook for ROE to GAAP net earnings divided by average stockholders' interest. The company's outlook for pro forma ROE is presented on a basis consistent with the other pro forma financial information presented elsewhere in this press release.
All net realized investment gains (losses) are reflected in the Corporate and Other Segment and are not reflected in the results of any of the company's other segments. As a result, the segment results contained in this press release are presented on a net operating earnings basis, which is the same as net earnings under GAAP for all segments, except Corporate and Other Segment. For a reconciliation of net operating earnings for Corporate and Other Segment to net earnings presented in accordance with GAAP, see the table at the end of this press release. The term "net operating loss" as used in this press release is also a non-GAAP financial measure and has an analogous meaning to "net operating earnings."
Definition of Sales
The term "sales" as used in this press release means (1) annualized first- year premiums for term life insurance, long-term care insurance, group life and health insurance and life-contingent annuities; (2) deposits for universal life insurance, spread-based non-life contingent products and fee-based products; (3) written premiums gross of reinsurance and cancellations for PPI; and (4) new insurance written for mortgage insurance, which in each case reflect the amount of business the company generated during each period presented. Sales do not include renewal premiums on policies or contracts written during prior periods. The company considers annualized first-year premiums, deposits, gross written premiums and new insurance written to be a measure of the company's operating performance because they represent a measure of new sales of insurance policies or contracts during a specified period, rather than a measure of the company's revenues or profitability during that period. This operating measure enables the company to compare its operating performance across periods without regard to revenues or profitability related to policies or contracts sold in prior periods or from investments or other sources.
This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward- looking statements may be identified by words such as "expects," "intends," "anticipates," "plans," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "will," or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for the company's future business and financial performance. Forward- looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors, including the following:
* Risks relating to the company's businesses, including interest rate
fluctuations, downturns and volatility in equity markets, defaults in
portfolio securities, downgrades in the company's financial strength
and credit ratings, unexpected changes in mortality and morbidity
rates, accelerated amortization of deferred acquisition costs and
present value of future profits, impairment of the value of goodwill,
decreases in the volume of mortgage originations, increases in mortgage
insurance cancellations, increases in the use of captive reinsurance in
the mortgage insurance market, the influence of large mortgage lenders
and investors, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, insufficiency of
reserves, legal constraints on dividend distributions by subsidiaries,
illiquid investments, competition, inability to attract or retain
independent sales intermediaries and dedicated sales specialists,
defaults by counterparties, regulatory restrictions on the company's
operations and changes in applicable laws and regulations, legal or
regulatory actions, or  investigations, political or economic
instability and the threat of terrorism; and
* Risks relating to the company's separation from GE, including the loss
of benefits associated with GE's brand and reputation, the company's
need to establish the new Genworth brand identity quickly and
effectively, the company's inability to present financial information
in SEC filings that accurately represents the results the company would
have achieved as a stand-alone company, the possibility that the
company will not be able to replace services previously provided by GE
on comparable terms, uncertainty of amounts and timing of payments that
the company has agreed to make to GE under the company' tax matters
agreement and other matters relating to that agreement, potential
conflicts of interest with GE and GE's engaging in the same type of
business as the company does in the future.
The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward- looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
Genworth is a leading insurance holding company, serving the lifestyle protection, retirement income, investment and mortgage insurance needs of more than 15 million customers, and has operations in 20 countries, including the U.S., Canada, Australia, the U.K. and more than a dozen other European countries. For more information, visit http://www.genworth.com/.
COMBINED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS INFORMATION
(Amounts in millions, except per       Three months ended September 30,
share data)                              Historical        Pro forma
2004     2003     2004     2003
Premiums                           $1,523   $1,664   $1,523   $1,547
Net investment income                 785    1,033      806      764
Net realized investment gains
(losses)                               3      (13)       3       (9)
Policy fees and other income          159      232      161      134
Total revenues                  2,470    2,916    2,493    2,436
Benefits and other changes in
policy reserves                    1,034    1,345    1,041    1,079
Interest credited                     328      407      336      340
Underwriting, acquisition and
insurance expenses, net of
deferrals                            399      525      401      441
Amortization of deferred
acquisition costs and
intangibles                          242      276      244      226
Interest expense                       60       40       60       57
Total benefits and expenses     2,063    2,593    2,082    2,143
Earnings from continuing operations
before income taxes and accounting
changes                                  407      323      411      293
Provision for income taxes                136       93      138       83
Net earnings from continuing
operations before accounting
changes                                  271      230     $273     $210
Net earnings from discontinued
operations, net of taxes                 -         10
Loss on sale of discontinued
operations, net of taxes                 -        (67)
Net earnings before accounting change     271      173
Cumulative effect of accounting
changes, net of taxes                    -        -
Net earnings                             $271     $173
operations per share:
Basic                               $0.55    $0.47    $0.56    $0.43
Diluted                             $0.55    $0.47    $0.56    $0.43
Net earnings per share:
Basic                               $0.55    $0.35
Diluted                             $0.55    $0.35
Basic                               489.6    489.5    489.6    489.5
Diluted                             490.4    489.5    490.4    489.5
(Amounts in millions, except per       Nine months ended September 30,
Net investment income               2,823    3,020    2,393    2,207
(losses)                              27      (29)      24      (11)
Interest credited                   1,088    1,222    1,000    1,023
deferrals                          1,383    1,489    1,235    1,231
Interest expense                      154       94      180      144
changes                                1,223    1,071    1,218      963
Provision for income taxes                424      322      428      282
operations, net of taxes                 -        186
Gain (loss) on sale of discontinued
operations, net of taxes                   7      (67)
changes, net of taxes                      5      -
PRO FORMA FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Pro forma
Pro forma    Pro forma   adjustments-
adjustments- adjustments-   capital
excluded    reinsurance   structure
assets and  transactions  and other    Pro
Historical  liabilities     (b)          (c)      forma
(a)      (Unaudited)
(Dollar amounts
in millions)
Premiums            $1,523        $-          $-           $-      $1,523
Net investment
income                785         -          21            -         806
Net realized
(losses)                3         -           -            -           3
Policy fees
and other
income                159         -           2            -         161
Total revenues    2,470         -          23            -       2,493
Benefits and
other changes in
policy reserves     1,034         -           7            -       1,041
Interest credited      328         -           8            -         336
Underwriting,
acquisition and
insurance expenses,
net of deferrals      399         -           2            -         401
Amortization of
acquisition costs
and intangibles       242         -           2            -         244
Interest expense        60         -           -            -          60
Total benefits
and expenses     2,063         -          19            -       2,082
Earnings from
before income
taxes                  407         -           4            -        411
Provision for
income taxes           136         -           2            -        138
Net earnings
from continuing
operations            $271        $-          $2           $-       $273
Three months ended September 30,
Premiums            $1,664      $(66)       $(51)          $-     $1,547
income              1,033       (20)       (249)           -        764
investment gains
(losses)              (13)        4           -            -         (9)
Policy fees and
other income          232       (65)        (33)           -        134
Total revenues    2,916      (147)       (333)           -      2,436
policy reserves     1,345       (52)       (214)           -      1,079
Interest credited      407         -         (67)           -        340
net of deferrals      525       (66)        (18)           -        441
and intangibles       276       (27)        (23)           -        226
Interest expense        40         -           -           17         57
and expenses     2,593      (145)       (322)          17      2,143
before income taxes    323        (2)        (11)         (17)       293
Provision for income
taxes                   93         -          (4)          (6)        83
Net earnings from
operations            $230       $(2)        $(7)        $(11)      $210
Note:  For a discussion of notes (a), (b), and (c) to these tables see
Notes to Pro Forma Financial Information and Reconciliation Tables.
Nine months ended September 30, 2004
income              2,823       (28)       (402)           -      2,393
(losses)               27        (3)          -            -         24
other income          612      (103)        (48)           -        461
Benefits and other
reserves            3,675       (71)       (374)           -      3,230
Interest credited    1,088         -         (88)           -      1,000
expenses, net of
deferrals           1,383      (117)        (31)           -      1,235
Interest expense       154         -           -           26        180
and expenses      7,192      (234)       (542)          26      6,442
before income taxes  1,223        20           1          (26)     1,218
taxes                  424        13          (1)          (8)       428
operations            $799        $7          $2         $(18)      $790
Premiums            $4,941     $(187)      $(149)          $-     $4,605
(losses)              (29)        7          11            -        (11)
reserves            3,806      (136)       (625)           -      3,045
Interest credited    1,222         -        (199)           -      1,023
Interest expense        94         -           -           50        144
taxes                1,071       (18)        (40)         (50)       963
taxes                  322        (6)        (16)         (18)       282
operations            $749      $(12)       $(24)        $(32)      $681
RECONCILIATION OF COMPANY NET EARNINGS TO PRO FORMA NET OPERATING EARNINGS
Three months    Nine months      Year
ended          ended          ended
September 30,   September 30,  December 31,
(Amounts in millions,           2004   2003     2004   2003      2003
except per share data)                (Unaudited)
Net earnings                    $271   $173     $811   $868     $1,081
discontinued operations,
net of taxes                      -    (10)       -   (186)      (186)
(Gain) loss on sale of
net of taxes                      -     67       (7)    67         74
Cumulative effect of
accounting change, net
of taxes                          -      -       (5)     -          -
operations                      271    230      799    749        969
Excluded assets and
liabilities(a)                    -     (2)       7    (12)       (15)
Reinsurance transactions(b)        2     (7)       2    (24)       (20)
Capital structure and other(c)     -    (11)     (18)   (32)       (42)
Pro forma net earnings from
continuing operations           273    210      790    681        892
Pro forma net realized (gains)
losses on investments, net of
taxes                            (2)     6      (16)     7        (25)
One-time tax charge relating to
initial public offering, net
of taxes                          -      -       22      -          -
Pro forma net operating
earnings                       $271   $216     $796   $688       $867
Net earnings per share
Basic                        $0.55  $0.35    $1.66  $1.77      $2.21
Diluted                      $0.55  $0.35    $1.65  $1.77      $2.21
operations per share
continuing operations per
Basic                        489.6  489.5    489.5  489.5      489.5
Diluted                      490.4  489.5    490.4  489.5      489.5
RECONCILIATION OF CORPORATE AND OTHER SEGMENT NET LOSS TO PRO FORMA NET
OPERATING LOSS
Three months ended   Nine months ended
September 30,       September 30,
(Dollar amounts in millions)        2004     2003       2004     2003
Segment net loss                    $(6)    $(28)      $(12)     $(78)
Excluded assets and liabilities(a)    -        -         (5)        1
Reinsurance transactions(b)           -        9          -        32
Capital structure and other(c)        -      (11)       (18)      (32)
Pro forma net loss from
continuing operations               (6)     (30)       (35)      (77)
Net realized (gains) losses on
investments, net of taxes           (2)       6        (16)        7
initial public offering                                 22         -
Pro forma net operating loss        $(8)    $(24)      $(29)     $(70)
Notes to Pro Forma Financial Information and Reconciliation Tables
(a) Reflects adjustments to exclude amounts included in the company's historical combined earnings relating to (1) certain businesses (formerly reported in the company's Affinity Segment) and certain investment partnerships, which in each case were not transferred to the company, and (2) net realized investment (gains) losses and related tax benefit arising from sales of Affinity segment assets that were reflected in the company's Corporate and Other Segment.
(b) Reflects adjustments to record the effects of the reinsurance transactions the company entered into with, and the related contribution the company made to, UFLIC, an indirect subsidiary of GE. As part of these transactions, the company ceded to UFLIC all of its in-force structured settlement contracts, substantially all of its in-force variable annuity contracts, and a block of long-term care insurance policies that it reinsured from Travelers in 2000, and it assumed from UFLIC a block of Medicare supplement insurance, all effective as of January 1, 2004. The unaudited pro forma earnings information gives effect to the reinsurance transactions as if each occurred as of January 1, 2003 and excludes the effects of all ceded reinsured contracts that were issued before January 1, 2003. The company has continued to sell variable annuities and structured settlements after completion of the reinsurance transactions and is retaining that business for its own account, subject to third party insurance in the ordinary course of business.
As a result, the company's unaudited pro forma combined statement of earnings reflects premiums and fees from these products issued after January 1, 2003, even though variable annuities and structured settlements issued during 2003 are included in the blocks of policies reinsured to UFLIC. The company's pro forma combined statements of earnings exclude the impact of the entire block of long-term care insurance policies that the company ceded to UFLIC as the company did not issue any new policies for this block in 2003, and the company will not issue any in the future.
Under the reinsurance transactions, the company receives an expense allowance to reimburse it for costs it incurs to service the reinsured blocks. Actual costs and expense allowance amounts will be determined by expense studies to be conducted periodically. The pro forma adjustments have been prepared assuming that actual costs incurred during the pro forma periods, as determined under the company's historical cost structure and allocation methods, were reimbursed by an expense allowance.
In addition to investment assets transferred to UFLIC in exchange for a reinsurance recoverable asset from UFLIC, concurrently, the company contributed $1.836 billion of capital to UFLIC which primarily represented the excess statutory capital in the company's insurance subsidiaries after giving effect to the reinsurance transactions. As a significant portion of the assets transferred and contributed were not owned for the entire period, the pro forma earnings adjustments to reduce net investment income and net realized investment gains were based upon a proportional allocation of investment income from the investment assets historically identified (1) as supporting the blocks of business reinsured for the reinsurance, and (2) as representing surplus of subsidiaries providing assets to be contributed to UFLIC for the contribution.
(c) Reflects adjustments for changes in the company's capitalization to exclude the impact of commercial paper, short-term borrowings from GE Capital and derivatives that were not transferred to the company in connection with the corporate reorganization and to include the impact of the issuance of $600 million of the company's 6.00% Equity Units and $100 million of the company's 5.25% mandatorily redeemable Series A Cumulative Preferred Stock, both of which were completed on May 28, 2004, the issuance of 3, 5, 10 and 30 year notes totaling $1.9 billion which was completed June 15, 2004, and the issuance of $500 million of commercial paper which was complete June 14, 2004, as well as interest expense related to the accretion of the company's obligation to GE under the Tax Matters Agreement and the tax impacts resulting from these changes in the company's capitalization.
SOURCE: Genworth Financial, Inc.
CONTACT: Investors: Jean Peters, +1-804-662-2693,
jean.peters@genworth.com, or Alicia Charity, +1-804-662-2248,
alicia.charity@genworth.com; Media: Mike Kachel, +1-804-662-2534,
mike.kachel@genworth.com, all of Genworth Financial, Inc.
Web site: http://www.genworth.com/

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


In the past few weeks, commodities across the board have steadily declined. Not just grains but all commodities- metals, fuels, gold, silver, etc. Anderson attributes a large part of this to the strengthening of the US Dollar. In the past week, the USD has risen almost two percent and in the past few months, nearly four to five percent. In that time, the price of wheat, corn and soybeans have all dropped from 30 cents to as much as a dollar or more. Wheat had rallied up to $6.00/bu. but has since fallen below $5.00. Anderson says the US has simply been outpriced by the Black Sea market.
According to recent reports, Egypt just bought a large cargo of wheat from Russia for $7.00 which adjusted the inland price of wheat here in Oklahoma down to around $5.00, knocking off that rally that had excited the market.
You can hear Kim's full remarks on the current market situation, by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.


Since opening in 1995, Scala's Bistro has celebrated seasonal ingredients created in an uncomplicated and inspired style. Our kitchen produces an earthy and satisfying offering that allows diners to bask in the culinary delights of the Italian and French countryside. Located just a block from Union Square, Scala's Bistro is adjacent to the historic Sir Francis Drake Hotel.
*Located 1 block from Union Square.
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With its amber lighting and walls lined with wine, the Wine Salon is an elegant and intimate dining room perfect for a dinner meeting or family gathering. Our professional and courteous staff attend to your guests to ensure an enjoyable and successful event.
With its luxurious tones, dramatic lighting and ornate ceilings, The Renaissance Room offers you and your guests a truly exceptional dining experience. Our professional and courteous staff are on hand enhance your next event!
Everything about the Starlight Room exudes elegance and style; from the walnut paneled elevators that whisk you to the 21st floor of the landmark Sir Francis Drake Hotel, to the stunning decor and an enchanting view of the San Francisco skyline.
Find the best venue for your next event or private party in San Francisco!


In case you haven't come across them before, cocoa nibs are pieces of hulled and roasted cacao beans. They're packed with magnesium, calcium, zinc, copper and potassium. You can find them at specialty food stores or good health food shops.


Better Figures made a video!
The video offers some tips for making better figures.
It's important to remember that this talk represents my PERSONAL VIEWS , and DOES NOT REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF THE MET OFFICE. Ahem.
Thanks for watching – if you have any comments or suggestions leave them below, or tweet @betterfigures or @dougmcneall and we'll make sure that the next version of the talk is even better.


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Seven Grandmasters (1978)
"Hong Kong Cinema Over the Edge." Just when aging martial arts expert "Sang Kuan Chun" (Jack Long) prepares to retire, his abilities are questioned by an anonymous source. So he sets off on a quest to challenge seven grandmasters and prove to his own satisfaction that he's reach the pinnacle of achievement in martial arts. Each of the other martial arts experts specializes in a different fighting style (with the battle against the monkey stylist being the most memorable of the lot!). Meanwhile, undisciplined "Siu Ying" (Li Yi Min) clumsily attempts to get Sang Kuan Chun to take him on as a student. Before you know it, he's kicking the asses of Sang Kuan Chun's other students. Nancy Yen portrays Sang Kuan Chun's daughter and Siu Ying's love interest. Directed by Joseph Kuo, Seven Grandmasters features enough comedy and thrilling martial arts action to entertain even the most jaded kung fu buff! Other kung fu films Kuo directed with numbers in their titles include 18 Bronzemen (1976), Unbeaten 28 (1980) and 36 Deadly Styles (1982).
Jacob's Ladder (1990)
In the Company of Men (1997)
My Best Fiend (1999)


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Self-assembling particles brighten future of LED lighting
by Princeton University
A new type of LED is made with crystalline substances known as perovskites. Credit: Sameer A. Khan/Fotobuddy
Just when lighting aficionados were in a dark place, LEDs came to the rescue. Over the past decade, LED technologies—short for light-emitting diode—have swept the lighting industry by offering features such as durability, efficiency and long life.
Now, Princeton engineering researchers have illuminated another path forward for LED technologies by refining the manufacturing of light sources made with crystalline substances known as perovskites, a more efficient and potentially lower-cost alternative to materials used in LEDs found on store shelves.
The researchers developed a technique in which nanoscale perovskite particles self-assemble to produce more efficient, stable and durable perovskite-based LEDs. The advance, reported January 16 in Nature Photonics, could speed the use of perovskite technologies in commercial applications such as lighting, lasers and television and computer screens.
"The performance of perovskites in solar cells has really taken off in recent years, and they have properties that give them a lot of promise for LEDs, but the inability to create uniform and bright nanoparticle perovskite films has limited their potential," said Barry Rand an assistant professor of electrical engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton.
"Our new technique allows these nanoparticles to self-assemble to create ultra-fine grained films, an advance in fabrication that makes perovskite LEDs look more like a viable alternative to existing technologies," Rand, the lead researcher, added.
LEDs emit light when voltage is applied across the LED. When the light is turned on, electrical current forces electrons from the negative side of the diode to the positive side. This releases energy in the form of light. LEDs operate best when this current can be strictly controlled. In Rand's devices, the thin nanoparticle-based films allowed just that.
LEDs have many advantages over incandescent bulbs, including durability, longer life, smaller size, energy efficiency and low-heat. While they are still more expensive than fluorescent lights for room illumination, they are more energy efficient, light up faster and present fewer environmental concerns related to disposal.
Rand's team and others researchers are exploring perovskites as a potential lower-cost alternative to gallium nitride (GaN) and other materials used in LED manufacturing. Lower-cost LEDs would speed the acceptance of the bulbs, reducing energy use and environmental impacts.
Perovskite is a mineral originally discovered in the mid-1800s in Russia and named in honor of the Russian mineralogist Lev Perovski. The term "perovskite" extends to a class of compounds that share the crystalline structure of Perovski's mineral, a distinct combination of cuboid and diamond shapes.
Perovskites exhibit a number of intriguing properties—they can be superconductive or semiconductive, depending on their structure—that make them promising materials for use in electrical devices. In recent years, they have been touted as a potential replacement for silicon in solar panels: cheaper to manufacture while offering equal efficiency as some silicon-based solar cells.
Hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite layers are fabricated by dissolving perovskite precursors in a solution containing a metal halide and an organic ammonium halide. It is a relatively cheap and simple process that could offer an inexpensive alternative to LEDs based on silicon and other materials.
However, while the resulting semiconductor films could emit light in vivid colors, the crystals forming the molecular structure of the films were too large, which made them inefficient and unstable.
In their new paper, Rand and his team report that the use of an additional type of organic ammonium halide, and in particular a long-chain ammonium halide, to the perovskite solution during production dramatically constrained the formation of crystals in the film. The resulting crystallites were much smaller (around 5-10 nanometers across) than those generated with previous methods, and the halide perovskite films were far thinner and smoother.
This led to better external quantum efficiency, meaning the LEDs emitted more photons per number of electrons entering the device. The films were also more stable that those produced by other methods.
Russell Holmes, a professor of materials science and engineering at the University of Minnesota, said the Princeton research brings perovskite-based LEDs closer to commercialization.
"Their ability to control the processing of the perovskite generated ultra-flat, nano-crystalline thin films suitable for high efficiency devices," said Holmes, who was not involved in the research. "This elegant and general processing scheme will likely have broad application to other perovskite active materials and device platforms."
Reliable processing of efficient solar cell material depends on how solvent is removed
More information: Efficient perovskite light-emitting diodes featuring nanometre-sized crystallites, Nature Photonics, nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/nphoton.2016.269
Journal information: Nature Photonics
Provided by Princeton University
Citation: Self-assembling particles brighten future of LED lighting (2017, January 16) retrieved 17 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2017-01-self-assembling-particles-brighten-future.html
An interaction between perovskites and quantum dots could improve LED and solar technologies
Team directly measures how perovskite solar films efficiently convert light to power
LEDs made from 'wonder material' perovskite
Stability challenge in perovskite solar cell technology
Toward 'greener,' inexpensive solar cells


This is my grandmother's recipe for chocolate pie, I can remember being able to smell her cooking it from outside and I would come running.
If you want, you can beat the egg whites to make a meringue. Put on pie and bake 7 - 8 minutes (until meringue is done).


Crystal is an experienced Assistant Marketing Director with a demonstrated history of working in the corporate marketing and higher education industry. She represents what it means to possess strong leadership skills in a male dominated industry. Crystal has the most fun teaching spin class in San Diego, CA. As an instructor she has learned how to fine tune her communications skills, connect with folks she wouldn't otherwise meet, and show others how to realize the importance of self care. Through the support of her family, Crystal has led a positive and happy life and she is helping others to stay strong one smile at a time. Crystal has been a welcome member of the Amari family since 2018.


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Limestone/Lime - Gypsum Wet Flue Gas Desulfurization
A brief description of the technology
Limestone/lime/carbide slag is used as desulfurization absorbent, and the limestone/lime/carbide slag is crushed into powder, mixed with water, and stirred to form absorption slurry; limestone slurry is pumped into the absorption column through the slurry circulating pump to make full contact with the flue gas, so that SO2 in the flue gas reacts with CaCO3 in the slurry to generate calcium sulfite (while removing other pollutants in the flue gas); oxidizing air is blown into the slurry pool at the lower part of the absorption column to forcibly oxidize calcium sulfite to calcium sulfate; when calcium sulfate reaches a certain saturation, it forms crystals and dihydrate gypsum is separated, thus completing the desulfurization reaction.
1. No-packing single-circuit spray column is adopted, and there are no components in the gas-liquid contact area of the column, which can effectively reduce the running resistance in the column.
2. By means of computer simulation and based on actual engineering experience, the arrangement of desulfurization column and its internal components are optimized to ensure the stable flow of flue gas, evenly spray of slurry in the desulfurization column, and the full contact of gas and liquid in the column, so as to achieve the best desulfurization effect.
3. The technology is mature, reliable and stable
Applicable scope
Newly built desulfurization plant or desulfurization retrofitting
Applicable industries
Metallurgy, chemical industry, thermal power plant, etc.
The flue gas from the dust collector passes through a booster fan and enters a heat exchanger. After being cooled, the flue gas enters an absorption column and is mixed with limestone slurry. Some of the water in the slurry evaporates and the flue gas further cools. It can remove 95% of sulfur in the flue gas through scrubbing by the circulating limestone slurry. Moreover, nearly 100% of hydrogen chloride in the flue gas can be removed. At the top of the absorber, flue gas passes through a demister to remove suspended water droplets and is discharged through a stack.


The two parcels of the Redfir Lake-Kapitagas Channel Ecological Reserve, located in southwestern Labrador, protect the only known natural stands of jack pine in the province, and the most easterly occurrence of this tree species in North America.
Jack pine grow in northern areas with dry, infertile soils that cannot support other tree species. The tree's range extends farther north (in western Canada) than any other North American pine tree.
This tree species is highly fire-dependent-its hard-surfaced cones, 4 to 5 cm long, are tightly sealed and bonded by resin and it takes the heat of a fire to open them and release their seeds. Jack pine also reproduce quickly, reaching reproductive maturity within 10 years.
The naturally occurring jack pine in the reserve's two parcels are in different stages of growth. In the smaller (3 km2) area near Redfir Lake, the trees are recolonizing following fire. In the larger (79 km2) Kapitagas Channel area to the north, jack pine grow in mature, almost pure stands. This variety of successional stages is an indicator of ecosystem health.
The separation of the reserve's two sites is important to the management of the species. In the unfortunate event that one site is devastated (by disease or infestation, for example), the other may remain healthy and serve as a seed source.
Both parts of Redfir Lake-Kapitagas Channel Ecological Reserve lie within Labrador's Mid Subarctic Forest ecoregion (730 KB), in which black spruce is the most common tree. Cladina and Cladonia lichens are also prominent in the forest's under-story.
There is no road access to either part of the Redfir Lake-Kapitagas Channel Ecological Reserve.
Redfir Lake-Kapitagas Channel Ecological Reserve was given provisional status in 1995, and was fully designated in 1999.


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Leptotarsus guimaraesi är en tvåvingeart som först beskrevs av Alexander 1942.  Leptotarsus guimaraesi ingår i släktet Leptotarsus och familjen storharkrankar. Inga underarter finns listade i Catalogue of Life.

Källor

Storharkrankar
guimaraesi

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia