text:
Prospectus Hit and Run: Trouble at Home
On Sunday, the Phillies fell to the Orioles for their second consecutive sweep and third straight series loss at the hands of an American League team. Though they remained atop the NL East, the defending world champions finished their latest homestand with a 1-8 record, their worst since 2004. Indeed, Citizens Bank Ballpark hasn't lavished much brotherly love on the Phillies this year, and not because of their notoriously leather-lunged fans. The Phillies have gone just 13-22 at home, with a .371 winning percentage that ranks 29th in the majors, surpassing only the Nationals. On the other hand, their 23-9 road record, good for a .719 winning percentage, is the majors' best. What in the name of the Phillie Phanatic is going on?
First, a bit of background. In the full seasons since the 1994-95 players' strike, home teams have won at a .539 clip, setting a single-season high-water mark for the era last year at .556. This year, home teams are winning at a .549 clip, .555 if you exclude the Phillies. Over the course of a season, home-field advantages-the differences between a team's home and road winning percentages-in excess of 150 points are quite common; 63 teams posted such margins from 1996 through 2008, about five per year.
On the other hand, the Phillies' 348-point "home-field disadvantage" is more than double the largest such gap in the post-1960 expansion era of 162-game seasons. That record belongs to the 1998 Royals, who went 29-51 at home and 43-38 on the road, for a difference of 168 points. Note that schedule length makes a huge difference here; eight of the 20 largest gaps have come in strike-affected seasons (1972, 1981, 1994, 1995). That the Phils have played just 41 percent of their schedule strongly suggests their drastic home/road splits are a function of small sample size. Need further evidence? Consider that 12 teams have put up 150-point home-field advantages thus far this year, more than in the last two combined.
Nonetheless, it's worth examining just how anomalous things are. Compare this year's team to last:
----------Home----------    ----------Road----------
Year   RS    RA   Pyth  Actual     RS    RA   Pyth  Actual
2008  5.09  4.17  .590  .593      4.78  4.22  .556  .543
Over the course of a full season, the 2008 squad's home and road records closely reflected their Pythagorean records. This year, they differ wildly, lagging 41 points behind their projected record at home, but 69 points ahead on the road. Those gaps are even more out of line when one considers that the other 29 teams are outperforming their Pythagorean records at home (and thus underperforming on the road) by an average of 29 points, a margin consistent within the post-strike era. In other words, given a .412 Pythagorean winning percentage at home, the Phillies should be winning at around a .441 clip.
Looking more closely at the team's home/road splits and their overall numbers, it's worth remembering that these aren't the 2008 Phillies. The flaws of this year's squad start with the fact that while they're outscoring all other NL teams with 5.3 runs per game, they're allowing runs at the second-highest rate (5.0). The pitching staff has been in disarray all season long thanks to injuries, from Cole Hamels' elbow to Brett Myers' hip to Brad Lidge's knee, and, while healthy, neither Joe Blanton nor Jamie Moyer have lived up to last year's solid performances.
The main problem is that their staff isn't well suited to its home park. Where last year's pitchers generated ground balls on 46.4 percent of all batted balls, good for seventh in the league, this year's model is getting ground balls on only 42.9 percent of batted balls, the league's lowest rate. With Myers possibly out for the year, they lack a single starter above 46.0 percent; it doesn't help that his replacement, rookie Antonio Bastardo, is at 30.0 percent. Blanton, in his first full year with the team, is at 41.1 percent. Chan Ho Park, whose career-best 52.6 percent last year offered hope-both that he could survive outside Dodger Stadium and that the Phillies could add a ground-baller-regressed significantly and was blitzed out of the rotation. Park was replaced by J.A. Happ, who at 38.2 percent is another extreme fly-baller.
Particularly at Citizens Bank Park, those fly balls means more home runs. While its 1002 Park Factor in Clay Davenport's translations means that it's basically neutral as far as scoring is concerned, CBP is very home run-friendly. The park ranked in the top five in home runs in four of the past five seasons, including the major league lead in 2007. It dipped to seventh last year because the Phillies' staff allowed only 0.96 homers per nine at home, 0.37 lower than in any year since the park's 2004 introduction. They're yielding an astronomical 1.65 HR/9 at home this year, as 19.2 percent of all fly balls off of opponents' bats have left the CBP field of play, a rate 50 percent higher than the major league average.
Meanwhile, though Raul Ibañez and Ryan Howard are both getting their share of home cooking (with 29.0 percent and 27.6 percent of their fly balls at Citizens leaving the yard), the Phillies' offense as a whole isn't getting nearly so much love. As a team, just 16.1 percent of their fly balls at Citizens are landing in the seats, versus 17.3 percent on the road. By comparison, Phillies pitchers are yielding homers on 15.9 percent of road fly balls. Luck and defense on balls in play are having their effects on the splits as well. The pitching staff is yielding a .318 BABIP at home, against a .288 mark on the road. Their own hitters, on the other hand, are at .273 at home, .291 on the road. The team's line-drive rates don't fully explain such gaps. The pitchers' rates hardly differ (19.1 percent at home, 19.2 on the road), while the hitters' rates do so by just a little (18.2 percent at home, 19.6 percent on the road).
Given large enough samples, this drastic home/road split will likely settle down and return to something more closely approximating normalcy. Fly balls won't turn into homers as often, and the hits will fall in for the offense, helping to restore order. While Ibañez and Chase Utley may be playing over their heads at the moment, Jimmy Rollins has particularly stunk up the joint at CBP, hitting .192/.247/.338 with a .189 BABIP despite a line-drive rate that's just 0.8 percent lower than on the road (16.8 percent to 17.6 percent). Sooner or later he's likely to modify the pull-happy approach that's pulled down his numbers. Meanwhile, as GM Ruben Amaro Jr. works the phones for another starting pitcher, he'd do well to consider adding a ground-baller.
The bottom line is that if the world champions want a shot at defending their crown, they'll have to find a way to win at home. In the expansion era, only one team has made the playoffs with a sub-.500 home record over a full season, the 2001 Braves (40-41), and no team has ever won a pennant while finishing with a home record worse than 43-38, the mark achieved by the 1973 Mets. The thought of beating the Mets always seems to bring out the best in the Phillies these days; maybe it will do so again.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider .
Mountainhawk
So crazy. If the Phillies were just 18-17 at home, the division would be all but wrapped up.
The Phillies starting pitching has been getting a little better (sub 4.00 ERA in June), so if they can get the real Lidge back to settle down the bullpen, maybe they can start to get the home record under control.
Reply to Mountainhawk
hessshaun
I don't have the time to look it up, but I was just trying to memory jog the brain for BS at home. I can think of at least 4 in the last two weeks. Those are the real killers. Also, to add to Mountainhawk's point, there pitching has been significantly better. Most of the games that they are losing are absolute heart breakers. Of course, I think that is due to the fact that the opening portion of the season absolutely killed the pen.
Above all, sure they could use a nice ground ball pitcher. Who can't? In addition to that, they also need at least one more quality arm in the pen and I would argue that to be a more pressing issue than a SP at this point in time.
Reply to hessshaun
jjaffe
They're 15th in the league in SNLVAR and 13th in WXRL, so clearly they need help at both ends. Much of the latter ranking has to do with Lidge's failures rather than those of the guys in front of him; their Fair Run Average for the bullpen is a respectable 4.28, and Lidge and Jack Taschner are the only mainstays in the red, WXRLwise. Park, Madson, Romero, Eyre (who's on the DL), Condrey and Durbin are all above 1.0 leverage with a positive WXRL.
It's worth remembering that the more innings your starters can eat (and the Phils are 0.16 below league average in that department), the fewer innings you need out of your bullpen.
Reply to jjaffe
But April was just so hideous. I can't find league rankings for even something as simple as ERA for splits by month, but I suspect they are significantly better than 15th/13th since May 1, particularly in SNLVAR.
Not saying that they don't need pitching help, because they could certainly use another starter, but the staff isn't hopeless either the way it looked like it might be in April. Jamie Moyer in particular has given up just 20 runs in his last 7 starts, while going 43 innings in those starts. His ERA is still near 6, but it's a more respectable 4.19 in the last 7.
Not quite what you asked for but according to Baseball Reference, their starters' April ERA was 6.35, in May it was 5.53, in June it's 3.86. So you're right in that their performance as a unit is stabiliizing.
SoxOsPhils
Bias note - "While Ibañez and Chase Utley may be playing over their heads at the moment".
There is no evidence provided to substantiate the above comment. Also, I would like to note that I can't find any evidence of Chase Utley playing over his head at all. It frustrates and concerns me as a fan of analysis and a fan of Utley to consistently run into this bias on this website.
Reply to SoxOsPhils
Whew, and here I was afraid that I'd write a Phillies article without a single accusation of bias from a hypersensitive Phils fan.
Utley: .300/.432/.560 this year, .298/.380/.529 career, with an EqA that's 37 points above his career mark and 15 points above his previous career high.
Ibanez: .312/.371/.656 with a .339 EqA, 50 points higher than his career mark and 35 points higher than his previous career high.
But please, don't let numbers get in the way of your accusations of bias.
Jay,
I agree with you re: Ibanez, obviously he is playing above his head, and will probably slow down big-time once he returns from injury. I think he already was slowing before he got hurt.
In regards to Utley, if you look at his numbers since he became a regular, I think the most significant difference between this season and his 2005-2008 seasons is that his walk rate has increased from about 8-9% of PAs to about 14-15%. In 2007 (probably his best season despite injury) he did have a SLG of .569 through 500+ PAs, so I don't think having a SLG of .560 at this point in the season is really some huge outlier performance on his part. Also the main driver again of his higher OPS and other stats is his improved OBP. I agree that he is performing at a very high-level based on past performance, but I think playing over his head is a poor choice of phrase for Chase, especially without any supporting evidence.
Whether you agree with me or not, thanks for responding.
"...especially without any supporting evidence"? Please tell me you're kidding. I just gave you the supporting evidence: UTLEY HAS NEVER PUT UP NUMBERS THIS GOOD OVER THE COURSE OF A FULL SEASON. See for yourself on his player card.
Utley's career highs in OBP and SLG both came in his abbreviated 2007 season, when he missed about a month. That's not to say they don't count, but it suggests that sample size *might* have something to do with it. Now he's about 30 points higher in both categories now than he's ever been otherwise, in only ~40% of a schedule. Again, I'm going to to be a stick-in-the-mud and suggest there's a connection with the sample size and the level he's shown. It's not his SLG this year that's the outlier, because he's been consistently above .525 in the past four years, and a minor spike would hardly be unprecedented given the way power numbers have jumped around over the past 20 years. It's his OBP that's out of whack. Other than that shortened 2007 season, he's never been above .380. Furthermore, Utley's high for EqA is .330, his 90th percentile PECOTA this year is .328, he's at .342 now. By definition, if a guy's playing well above his 90th percentile, it's fair to say he's playing over his head. That's not to say he won't wind up meeting or beating his 60th or 75th percentile, or even his 90th. But *assuming* that just because he's above his 95th before halfway point, that that's not only a level he can maintain, but that for saying that he won't - in an analytical context - is some indication of bias, is idiocy. It devalues the discussion.
Look, I'm about as big a fan of Utley as you'll find here. I love to watch him play. He's an All-Star, an MVP-caliber player - check the stuff I wrote about him last fall where I point out his superiority to Howard and Rollins over the course of their MVP stretches - and if I lived in Philly I'd probably buy an Utley jersey. But you know, I don't live in Philly, and it's my job to divorce myself from that emotion when I analyze him and any other player. It's really amazing and occasionally maddening that dyed-in-the-wool fans of any particular hometown nine come here and accuse me or any of my colleagues of bias whenever our objective analysis somehow contradicts their rose-tinted view of their favorite players. BIAS? You're the one waving the partisan flag of the Phillies fan, and it says so right on your user name. And yet the moment we remind you that Ryan Howard struggles against lefties or Chase Utley is not the second coming of the messiah - BIAS! BIAS! BIAS! Not to inject politics into this discussion, but you sound like the red-assed members of a certain out-of-power political party these days, attempting to smear those with whom you disagree with the very charges that are more suited to yourself. Again, that doesn't advance the discussion.
My colleagues and I are the ones who get paid with your hard-earned subscription dollars - and bless you all for that, from the bottom of my hard little heart - to step back and try to see the forest for the trees, to detach ourselves from the hype and the partisanship so that we can grind away at those layers of distortion to get at whatever essential truths there are to be had in our analyses. They may not always be right, you may not always agree with them, and you're welcome to present evidence that contradicts us or to challenge us to defend our positions. But before you try shouting us down by claiming bias simply because you disagree with us - and I don't mean to single you out individually, because the word BIAS is all over the comments these days; apparently Joe Sheehan is biased against both the Mets and Phillies - please think again. There's not a single one of us at BP who would have risen to this position, let alone survived year in and year out, if we were putting our thumbs on the scales, and there's no way this organization would have thrived for as long as it has if that were the case.
redspid
Nicely stated Jay.
Reply to redspid
I want to be clear in my response, and to ensure that my arguments are less likely to be misinterpreted, I am going to number my points and be as concise as possible:
1) I placed my words poorly in my latest response to you. Specifically, the "especially without any supporting evidence" phrase which was intended to refer back to your original article and not your response to me. You did provide that evidence in your response.
2) In regards to Utley's #'s, I think we are mostly in agreement. He is definitely performing near his peak capability, and it is greatly driven by his increased walk rate (over a 5% increase from his career high). The words in the original article matter though, and when I read "playing over your head", the connotation to me is both dismissive of his #'s to date and that he is getting lucky. If his batting average were .350, I would agree that he is probably getting lucky on BABIP and is hitting over his head, but an increase in his walk rate seems less like luck to me and possibly indicative of a new approach, although you are right, I'll have to wait until the end of this season and into future seasons to determine for sure.
3) I am a Phillies fan and think he is one of the best players I have ever watched on a regular basis. I do bring bias (although I hope that I limit it) to the argument at some level. However, just to note, I agree that Howard doesn't hit lefties much at all these days or in the past very well either.
4) As far as the accusations of bias in general, I know that I have been tough on writers here (Joe in particular has felt the wrath of Phillies fans in the past, including me), but part of that is because we expect some of the best insight and analysis from BP writers. I care as a fan of baseball, analysis, and as a fan of the Phillies.
Fair enough, I think we understand each other. Thanks for your considered reply.
So no 30 year old has ever improved their skill level and maintained it for a few years?


Good point, but this isn't helping cool things down for me!
And where is Windmill figher numero-uno on the critical log-issue? Outa gas as usual. Thousands of words about god-knows-what, but not even able to basically loll his head around about that cover-up known as "The Log". It really is all about him, not the truth at all.
Roadwarrior was rebuffed on the log-thing.
And now me, the consumate voice of reason.
Where is that tourettes-hippie blkrose to cut and paste by rote his tedious "and then they came for me"-bit again? I feel like I am beginning to walk a mile in his earth shoes.
pezzie, I can relieve your tension.
btraven, what are you going on about. We already resolved the log issue.
Another imperious wave-off by our aloof minders.
Zara wants to see the log.
I want to see the log.
Cowtown wants to see the log (probably over and over again).
Others want to see the log.
he's got it. bend over, soda.
trav, i'd need a few more coffees today to be that eager. i'm not that interested in outing someone who really did it by accident but was too shy to fess up ... seems pretty harsh, so personally, i'd love if manos would just drop the issue which is why i said put up or shut up. i'm interested though in knowing who caused the trouble to begin with, b/c i still have my suspicions, but i never wanted this to turn into a witch hunt if the person responsible did not do it intentionally. things righted themselves alright in the end but for the lame blame game.
How did the statistician deal with his constipation?
He worked out his logs with a pencil.
First the dismissive "the log doesn't exist", then that most pathetic of all brit-style debating dodges, 'I'm not sure what you're going on about', when legitimate log-concerns are brought up in a tasteful and respectful manner.
Next? I'm guessing a waffle about how the log contains 'sensitive classified log-info' that only the priveleged log-lookers can be trusted with. Spare us.
Let all posters take note of the silence of the new mods on this log-issue and note their smug Soda-like log-superiority over us all. They can and probably do peruse the log at will for all the log goodies to their heart's content. Fat chance they care about you or your log-needs.
Me? I begin a classy and dignified protest of silence (of extremely indeterminate length) as of now until they PRODU- well, you know where I'm going with this.
good lord btraven, are you actually being serious?
because if you are, I'd be happy to show you my log.
Why can't Cow be the next guest mod? Two birds, one stone.
brilliant idea. i can just see him standing on top the desks norma rayesque with a big sign held high, "LOG".
still hot 'n bothered here.
definitely a desperate troll - nobody could be that dense.
And it was a fluke or gaff that all the mods had ad min status at one point.
Well it was certainly a mistake, and one that won't be repeated.
It seems that they have created their own reality that will not be disturbed by actual events or facts.
Seriously - when was the last time you got laid?
that's a lie Zara or as you said a bit back you are an 'individual bent on twisting the truth and spreading lies, false accusations and innuendo here"
when were you ever an ad min?
Zara, you were never an ad min, you were only given ad min powers to supply; tech updates, graphics and put board patches into place. You were a mod though one that wromgfully had ad min powers. So how can you calim to be equal as an ad min when you were never an ad min?
so Zara who made you an ad min?
who gave you ad min status?
that pot, kettle, black thing wields it's ugly head.
I don't know why I was taking this so seriously before... it's so obviously an elaborate troll. I think perhaps cowtown has actually surpassed the patrik of old in his trolling abilities.
Personally, I will always prefer a good juicy tipping thread though.
Is the log in question comprehensible to non-techies?
Last edited by cowtown on Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
show me where, anywhere that Zara was meant to be an ad min as a job title and in status?
but again, will she own up to it?
By "mistake" I mean all those people shouldn't have been admins, not that they were made admin by accident, if that makes sense. We erred on the side of making a lot of people admins because it was easier, but given all the problems that resulted it was obviously a bad decision. Now mods are just given mod powers.
Regarding zara, the mods chose to make her a mod so that wasn't a mistake. Since all the mods were admins it made sense she was too, though as I've said we've curtailed who exactly has admin power.
so was she a mod with ad min power but not an ad min, correct?
I guess it depends how you define those things. When you have admin powers are you an admin? Surely the understanding (at least the way I saw it at the time) was that the mods were mods and the admins were admins and kool and manos were kind of super admins. But when you all have the same power, such distinctions become blurred.
Is that "Hits from the Bong"?
Did this go anywhere? Has the mystery been solved? Can we all relax now?
I've just got Oliver Stones signature on an option for the screenplay of this thread. I'm thinking Pee Wee Herman or Gilbert Gottfried for the Cowtown role.


Haverhill, MA – In an effort to recognize outstanding achievement in the Greater Haverhill community, the Greater Haverhill Chamber of Commerce formally identifies a "Business of the Month" approximately every four weeks. This award is given to a Chamber member that is a proven leader in their business or industry and excels in the areas of community involvement, economic growth, customer service and professional relationships.
Following an eight year career in Real Estate development and construction project management, Mary Grise began her own interior design business in 1998. For seven years, she operated Mary Grise's Interior Design out of her home, servicing both commercial and residential clients. In 2005, she changed the name of the business to The Inside View, LLC and opened her first design studio in downtown Haverhill.
In 2011, The Inside View relocated to its current site at 12 Granite Street. The design studio is a light-filled, renovated shoe factory and houses thousands of finish samples, including flooring, fabrics, paint, stone, wood, laminates, shades and blinds; window treatments and many, many more items. Clients are welcome to browse samples and a selection of retail accessory items.
Nominations for Business of the Month can be submitted at any time. If you would like to nominate a business to be considered for Business of the Month please call 978-373-5663 or email info@haverhillchamber.com. There is no fee for nominations or applications. Companies may be nominated by any member business. This is a benefit available exclusively to Chamber members.
The Greater Haverhill Chamber of Commerce is a private, non-profit business organization composed of over 500 area businesses, and we are growing by the day. The Chamber creates and fosters a prosperous business environment and support the growth and profitability of their members, providing the resources, advocacy, information, networking and marketing opportunities for members' success.


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Chipmaker Nvidia's CEO says Uber does not use its self-driving processing solution
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, speaks at the 2018 Nvidia GPU conference in San Jose, California, U.S. March 27, 2018. REUTERS/Alexandria Sage
(Reuters) - Uber Technologies Inc [UBER.UL] does not use the self-driving platform architecture of Nvidia Corp, the chipmaker's Chief Executive Jensen Huang said on Wednesday.
The ride-hailing service uses Nvidia's graphics processing units known as GPUs, Huang told an audience on the final day of Nvidia's GPU conference in San Jose, California.
"Uber does not use Nvidia DRIVE technology. Uber develops its own sensing and drive technology," Huang said in response to a question asked at the conference.
The Nvidia DRIVE platform is used by over 370 companies developing self-driving technology, including automakers and robotaxi companies and makers of self-driving hardware, such as sensors.
Huang's comments provide more detail as to the relationship between Nvidia and Uber, one of its many partners.
Nvidia's shares have fallen by about 9.5 percent since the company said on Tuesday it was temporarily halting its self-driving tests on public roads out of respect for the victim in the March 18 accident involving an Uber self-driving vehicle. An investigation is ongoing.
The chipmaker is continuing tests on closed enclosures, the chief executive said.
Uber suspended self-driving tests in North America after an autonomous vehicle struck and killed a woman crossing a street in Arizona earlier in the month.
Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengaluru and Alexandria Sage in San Francisco

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Home International Conflict/Crime Fire at Grand Forks Somali restaurant intentional, marshals say
Fire at Grand Forks Somali restaurant intentional, marshals say
By Somtribune Staff Writer -
Though investigators have "no idea" what motivated the deliberate torching of a Somali restaurant in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Community members believe the fire was a hate crime, with the fire ignited days after a Nazi-like symbol was spray-painted on the restaurant. The Grand Forks Fire Department was called to Juba Coffee House, 2017 S. Washington St., at about 2 a.m. Tuesday for a report of a fire, which left the building badly damaged.
Firefighters brought the blaze under control within 20 minutes, but not before it caused an estimated $90,000 worth of damages, Battalion Chief Rob Corbett said.
No one was injured in the fire.
Fire marshals determined the fire was ignited intentionally, and with that, the Grand Forks Police Department has taken the lead in investigating the fire, according to a news release.
The fire was the second incident reported at the business in the past several days.
The Grand Forks Police Department also is investigating apparent vandalism that occurred overnight Thursday when someone painted graffiti on the exterior wall of the building. The graffiti included what appears to be an "SS" in the style of a symbol from Nazi Germany above the painted words "go home."
Authorities have not determined whether the incidents are related.
"We have no idea (what motivated Tuesday's fire) and we won't know until the investigation is concluded," Grand Forks Police spokesman Lt. Derik Zimmel said. "We're certainly not going to put blinders on our investigation, and I would encourage the public to do the same."
While he expressed his sympathies to those affected by the fire in a statement Tuesday, Mayor Mike Brown also cautioned against speculating about what happened.
But community leaders were quick to respond to beliefs that the fire was racially or religiously motivated and reassured Muslims, immigrants and others they are welcome here.
"This is your home," said Robin David, president of the board of Global Friends Coalition, at a candlelight vigil held Tuesday evening outside Juba.
There is little question for some that the fire was racially or religiously motivated.
"It was vandalized last week," said Said Mohamed, who was at the vigil. "It's not coincidence."
At the least, out of the fire surfaced fears.
"As a Muslim and an African-American, this is the first time I feel scared," said Zakariye Ahmed, a UND student also at the vigil.
Fellow student Fuad Mohamoud echoed Ahmed, saying he worried about what may happen next.
"It could be the mosque," he said.
The restaurant was a meeting place for Somali youth. Mohamoud said it was tradition for him and his friends to eat a meal there on Fridays after prayer. Goat meat was a popular menu item, he said.
"There'd be three or four of us going at it," he said.
Now they'll have to learn how to cook for themselves, he joked, saying Juba was the only Somali restaurant in town.
The blaze occurred against the backdrop of Republican presidential candidate and frontrunner Donald Trump proposing to bar Muslims from entering the country, which political commentators say echoes of 1930s Nazi Germany and is contrary to American values and the constitutional right to religious freedom.
It was anti-Muslim comments by Trump and others that motivated former UND professor Colleen Berry, who now lives in Colorado, to set up a GoFundMe page in support of the business.
The fund was set up within hours of the fire being reported and surpassed its goal of $8,000 by 5 p.m. Tuesday. It had raised more than $9,000 by 8 p.m.
"I'm overwhelmed," she said. "It really makes me happy so many people we're willing to step up for this."
Berry said she would work with the Global Friends Coalition to get the money to the business owners.
Local reaction also was swift.
Several organizations and individuals immediately offered assistance once they heard about the fire, including Hope Church and North Dakotans for Diversity and Compassion.
Local artist Kathryn Fink organized a fundraising event featuring local art and music, which will be from 2 to 4 p.m. Saturday 311 DeMers Ave., Grand Forks. Fink and local artist Adam Kemp, who immigrated to North Dakota from England, will sell their art, with all donations going toward Juba Coffee House or Global Friends Coalition.
Global Friends Coalition, which supports refugee integration, also plans to hold a fundraising event, Executive Director Cynthia Shabb said.
"It just breaks my heart," she said.
Shabb said she spoke with the restaurant owner's wife, who she said seemed "shocked" by the destruction to their business.
The owners of the restaurant told the Herald early Tuesday they did not want to comment on the fire until they knew what happened.
While fire marshals and police detectives picked through debris and took photos of the scene Tuesday, residents and customers milled about behind the yellow tape cordoning off the building.
Among them was Wayne Torrey, who lives at the nearby Ambassador Motel and said he was incredulous of the destruction.
Torrey said he regularly walked past the restaurant on his way to the bus stop and would greet patrons and workers there.
One day, he was having a rough day when restaurant employees offered him a free meal, he said.
"If they've got that much heart, I don't even know why someone would do this" he said.
Herald Content Editor Christopher Bjorke and reporters Kevin Bonham and Jennifer Johnson contributed to this story.
Investigators have found that an early morning fire that badly damaged a Somali restaurant was ignited purposefully.
The Grand Forks Fire Department has turned over the investigation of the fire at Juba Coffee House, a Somali restaurant on South Washington Street in Grand Forks, to the Grand Forks Police Department. Fire marshals and the department said in an afternoon news release the fire was "incendiary and suspicious in nature."
The Fire Department responded to a report of a fire shortly after 2 a.m. at 2017 S. Washington St.
Firefighters brought the blaze under control within 20 minutes, Battalion Chief Rob Corbett said. No one was injured at the scene.
The estimated damage to the building and its contents is about $90,000, he said.
About 17 firefighters were on the scene. Fire marshals and Grand Forks police detectives remained at the site of the restaurant into the afternoon. The investigation into the fire is ongoing.
The fire was the second incident at the business in the past few days.
The Grand Forks Police Department also is investigating apparent vandalism that occurred overnight Thursday, when someone painted graffiti on the exterior wall of the building. The graffiti included what appears to be an SS in the style of a symbol for Nazi Germany's Gestapo above the painted words "go home."
Yellow police tape surrounded the building today, and police cars blocked the frontage road on the east side of South Washington Street between Campbell and Park drives.
Fire marshals could be seen picking through the debris and taking photographs of the scene. Two of the front windows were broken and glass littered the sidewalk in front of the restaurant.
Nearby residents and customers of Juba, known for its cuisine of sambusas and goat meat, milled about in front of the restaurant Tuesday.
The city of Grand Forks released a statement this afternoon on behalf of Mayor Mike Brown, who said the city's thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the cafe fire.
"As a community, we come to the aid of our friends and neighbors who are hurting, and we rally around them," he said. "It is part of who we are and we will do it again."
The mayor's office has reached out to the cafe owners and local organizations, which offered a network of support. But as the investigation is ongoing, he said it was "premature to speculate" on what happened.
"I have full confidence in our local and assisting agencies to get to the facts and when they do, we will determine the appropriate actions," he said.
Several organizations immediately offered assistance once they heard about the fire, including Hope Church and North Dakotans for Diversity and Compassion (NDDC). A GoFundMe page also has been established in support of the business. More than $6,000 had been donated by 2:30 p.m..
Some donors left messages of support for Juba and for immigrants on the GoFundMe page.
Global Friends Coalition, which supports refugee integration, is taking the lead on a soon-to-be planned fundraising event, Executive Director Cynthia Shabb said.
NDDC is waiting to hear what the needs of the Somali community are first, chairwoman Natasha Thomas said.
"Our role is to listen and to support," she said. "We're all sort of spinning with this right now."
Residents will gather outside of Juba at 5:30 p.m. today in a "show of support," said Robin David, president of the board of Global Friends Coalition.
Wayne Torrey, who lives at the Ambassador Motel next door to Juba Coffee House, said he was incredulous of the destruction.
Torrey said he regularly walked past the restaurant on his way to the bus stop and would greet the patrons and workers there.
One day when "nothing was going right," the restaurant employees offered him a free meal, he said.
"They've got that much heart," he said.
UPDATED AT 3 P.M.
An early morning fire heavily damaged Juba Coffee House, a popular Somali restaurant on South Washington Street in Grand Forks.
The Grand Forks Fire Department responded to a report of a fire at about 2:06 a.m. at 2017 S. Washington St.
The Grand Forks Police Department is investigating apparent vandalism that occurred overnight Thursday, when someone painted graffiti on the exterior wall of the building. The graffiti included what appears to be an SS in the style of a symbol for Nazi Germany's Gestapo above the painted words "go home."
Authorities have not determined whether the incidents are related. Fire marshals have not released the cause of the fire.
"I have full confidence in our local and assisting agencies to get to the facts and when they do, we will determine the appropriate actions," he said. Several organizations immediately offered assistance once they heard about the fire, including Hope Church and North Dakotans for Diversity and Compassion (NDDC). A GoFundMe page also has been established in support of the business. More than $6,000 had been donated by 2:30 p.m..
Some donors left messages of support for Juba and for immigrants on theGoFundMe page.
"SS"
Grand Folks
Somali Americans
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Somalia: As-Assey Hoetl Raid A Demonstrative Inghimasi Attack Bearing a Political Signature
Somalia: 26 Dead, 56 Injured, Hotel Extensively Damaged After Shabaab Siege – Jubbaland President
Hodan Nalayeh of Integration TV and Husband Die In Kismayo Hotel Raid
Somalia Executes 3 Over Deadly Hotel Bombing


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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Following a cross country road trip to the state of Washington, #6 Florida State (2-0) now focuses its attention on its home opener where it will play host to in-state foe Stetson (1-1) Sunday, August 29th at 2:00pm. The Seminoles have never lost to the Hatters, allowing just one goal in six overall matches. FSU won last year's matchup 3-0 during an August 30th matchup in Deland, Fla. Overall FSU is 26-1 all-time against schools from the Atlantic Sun Conference.
The first 250 students at the game will get a free pair of Seminole Soccer Gunner Glasses. Every Sunday matchup will be "Popcorn Sunday" where fans can get a free small bag of popcorn with any purchase at the Seminole Concession stand. Afterwards please join the Seminoles following the match for a post game autograph session.
Florida State is 12-2-1 all-time in home openers, having outscored opponents 59-16 in those games, including six shutouts. The Seminoles have won six straight home openers, including five straight under head coach Mark Krikorian. During that run the Seminoles have defeated Arizona State 3-2 in (2004), Jacksonville 7-0 (2005), Portland 2-1 (2006), Francis Marion 10-0 (2007), UCF 5-0 (2008) and Jacksonville 7-0 (2009). The 10-0 victory over Francis Marion in 2007 was a school record for a home opener, and the second biggest margin of victory in school history.
The last time FSU lost a home opener was in 2003 in a 2-1 loss against Southern Cal. FSU's last loss during a home opener came against Southern California in 2003 as the Trojans defeated the Seminoles 2-1. The only other times FSU has failed to win a home opener was a 3-0 loss against Miami in 1999 and a scoreless tie against Oregon State back in 2002.


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MCL, CMD laid foundation of Sports complex in Sambalpur
Sambalpur: Mr. PK Sinha, Chairman-cum-Managing Director, Mahanadi Coalfields Limited (MCL) yesterday laid the foundation stone of Sports Complex at Company Headquarters in Sambalpur.
To be constructed at an estimated cost of Rs 1.83 crore the sports complex will have all-weather badminton, table tennis and basket ball courts. Mr. OP Singh, DTO & DTPP, Mr KR Vasudevan, DF, Mr Keshav Rao, DP, Mr PK Patel, CVO, MCL were prominent among senior officers present on the occasion.


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Arrogant Fools
In his new book, Keynes: The Return of the Master, British economist Robert Skidelsky offers this assessment of New Classical economics, which has driven economic policy for the past thirty-five years:
I therefore believe that the root cause of the present crisis lies in the intellectual failure of economics. It was the wrong ideas of economists which legitimized the deregulation of finance which led to the credit explosion which led to the credit crunch. It is hard to convey the harm done by the recently dominant school of New Classical economics. Rarely in history can such powerful minds have devoted themselves to such strange ideas.
Stephen Harper, who is a graduate of the New Classical School, chose to skip the United Nations Climate Conference last week. It's not that he wasn't in the neighbourhood. He spent the day conferring with the mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg. But his absence sent a clear message. It was the same message he sent when he refused to show up at the unveiling of Joe Clark's portrait in Ottawa, or when he neglected to show up at the 25th anniversary of Brian Mulroney's first election victory. Harper has expressed contempt for both men in the past. His defenders will simply claim that the Prime Minister is no hypocrite.
But it's not that simple. Given Harper's claim, during the last election campaign, that Stephane Dion's proposed carbon tax would destroy the Canadian economy; and, given his shameful neglect of environmental policy, it seems clear that Harper viewed the conference as a non-event. However, there are better economists than he who understood the significance of that one day meeting.
Last Thursday, in The New York Times, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman wrote: "It's important, then, to understand that claims of immense economic damage from climate legislation are as bogus, in their own way, as climate-change denial. Saving the planet won't come free (although the early stages of conservation might). But it won't cost that much either." Krugman then went on to cite a Congressional Budget Office estimate that the legislation recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives "would cost the average family only $160 a year or 0.2 percent of income."
Some commentators, such as Henry Giroux, of McMaster University, would say that those who claim that saving the planet will destroy the economy are lying -- in the Orwellian sense that what they say is the exact opposite of what they mean. A somewhat more charitable interpretation might be that they are simply fools -- like the fools at the beginning of the last century who claimed that The Titanic was unsinkable, or that the Maginot Line was impenetrable. They believe they are invulnerable.
For Skidelsky, New Classical economists and their disciples have been arrogant fools, marching in their own parade. It is time to show them the door.
Posted by Owen Gray at 7:23 am No comments:
Labels: The Environment
Diminishing Returns
I admit that I am mildly surprised. I doubted that Stephen Harper would accept Jack Layton's offer to keep his government alive. Indeed, Harper did little to solicit Layton's support. That support probably had more to do with the NDP's readiness to face an election than it did with its stated interest in making Parliament work.
What was even more surprising was the Bloc Quebecois' support -- although these days it's hard to vote against a tax cut. After the dust had cleared, those ads that the Conservatives have been running about Micheal Ignatieff forming a coalition with socialists and separatists -- the ones that end with the tag line, "We can't trust him. We just can't trust him." -- took on a whole new meaning.
The really insightful event of the week was the Harperites proposed reforms to the EI system,which they apparently never brought to the table this summer. The proposed changes are absolutely consistent with the wedge strategy which has defined the government from day one. As Tom Walkom pointed out in The Toronto Star, they are designed to play one segment of the labour force against all the others: "The Prime Minister's proposed temporary reforms are aimed at jobless Ontario auto workers, a key NDP constituency."
These folks are "relatively well paid older workers who find themselves out of a job." They live primarily in the Windsor and Oshawa areas; and, in the last election, the NDP lost Oshawa by only 3200 votes. Draining NDP votes from key Ontario ridings could make up for the seats Mr. Harper will lose in Quebec the next time out. Harper had originally sought to draw votes away from the Bloc Quebecois, by recognizing Quebec as a "nation within a nation" two years ago, until he blew up that support in a frantic effort to keep his government alive after his November fiscal up date -- the one that forecast no deficit. Mr. Flaherty readjusted his figures last week. That number has gone from 0 to $56 billion in 10 months.
Wedge issues have been the hallmark of modern conservatism. They were the core of Ontario's Harris government, whose chief of staff -- Guy Giorno -- is now Harper's chief of staff. They were central to the second Bush administration, whose chief political strategist -- Karl Rove -- was occasionally referred to as "Bush's Brain." In both cases, the strategy was subject to the law of diminishing returns, because it relied on "micro targeting," -- which further subdivided the wedges -- until voters saw themselves only in terms of what distinguished them from their fellow citizens and not in terms of what united them. In the end, politics became the equivalent of herding cats -- and ended in a cacophony of discontent.
Mr. Harper's party is not the only party whose appeal is based on wedge issues. The Bloc Quebecois is founded on the principle of wedge politics. Nationalist voters in Quebec are a large and fairly stable unit -- unless leaders like Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney or Jean Chretien, native sons all -- convince a significant number of their fellow citoyens that Quebec's interests are better served within the government than without.
Michael Ignatieff is no native son. But his grandparents and his uncle settled along the banks of the St. Francis River in Quebec's Eastern Townships. He knows Quebec much better than the Prime Minister. Be that as it may, he now is at what The Star's James Travers calls a "rare moment." Having released his party from the role of grumbling enabler to loyal opposition, he must now "seize this moment between crises to reintroduce himself to Canadians and restore party confidence that it hasn't made another leadership mistake."
Crucial to that mission is a rejection of wedge politics. Ignatieff must convince Canadians that -- while he understands their differences -- he also understands what unites them. Canadian voters have stopped coming to the polls because they have figured out they are pawns in a game where they are being played against each other. Mr. Harris and Mr. Bush both discovered that -- in the end -- wedge politcs is a losing strategy.
Labels: Burying Wedge Politics
The Bogeymen
As Parliament resumes today, an election seems inevitable. Jack Layton has offered the prime minister an olive branch; but, given Mr. Harper's penchant for ressurecting bogeymen -- in this case, "socialists and separatists" -- it appears unlikely that the prime minister will take the offer. Instead, Mr. Harper says, what needs to be done is to "teach them [the opposition parties] a lesson." He tried to do that last November; and we all know how that gambit turned out.
Now Mr. Harper seeks to shift the blame for that "separatist coaltion" to the Liberal Party -- forgetting that, like Dr. Frankenstein, he gave that monster life. He also forgets that his rabid attack on the Bloc Quebcois was seen in Quebec as an attack on all Quebecers. Mr. Harper might wish that his Conservative predecessor, Brian Mulroney, would disappear. But, as Mulroney reminded Canadians last year, you cannot form a majority government in this country without winning seats in Quebec.
It is absolutely true that it is now up to Mr. Ignatieff to make his case. It is not enough to promise that "we can do better." He will have to outline a specific set of policies which give substance to that claim. But, as Jeff Jedras wrote in the National Post, Canadians should not blame the election on Ignatieff: "It's important to note that, in a minority parliament, it's not the job of the opposition parties to support the government. In fact, just the opposite. It is the responsibility of the government to maintain the confidence of the House. And if it can't, if the Conservatives can't keep the support of just one opposition party, then they have some serious explaining to do, and alot of the responsibility to shoulder for any resulting election."
Jedras went on to argue that, "Harper decided long ago to govern like he had a majority, that cooperation with the opposition parties was unnecessary, as long as he could count on the Liberals being willing to do anything to avoid an election. So he played political games every step of the way, forsaking cooperation for gamesmanship and the seeking of partisan advantage."
Those games continue. The Harperites have sought to paint Ignatieff as "the other" -- the same tactic that conservatives in the United States have used against Barack Obama. But Mr. Ignatieff, like Mr. Harper, was born here. And, as Mr. Ignatieff makes clear in his book, The Russian Album, there is a much longer tradition of public service -- inside and outside Canada -- in the Ignatieff family than in the Harper family.
Nonetheless, the burden of proof lies with Mr. Ignatieff. He claims that he has purposely chosen to keep the party platform under wraps until now so that the Harperites would not have the luxury of time to distort it. Given the government's use of fear as its chief political weapon, there may be some wisdom to that strategy. But now that the gaunlet is down, it's time for the wraps to come off.
Labels: Stephen Harper
When Michael Ignatieff announced last week that he and his party would no longer support Stephen Harper's minority government, he was -- at least among the chattering classes -- universally condemned. Even commentators on the left offered no support. "Heaven knows the country needs big changes," Gerald Caplan wrote in The Globe and Mail. "But the last thing we need is yet another election that will change nothing." And Tom Walkom wrote in The Toronto Star: "We do not need an election because, in the broadest sense, the choices have altered little since 2008 when Canadians last went to the polls."
Both men are essentially correct. So far we have not been given clearly defined choices -- even though, as Caplan says -- we need to make big changes. Nothing underscores that need more than Marlene Jennings description of Human Resources Minister Diane Finlay's reaction at the most recent meeting of the EI Commission, whose formation saved us from an election last spring. When Jennings challenged Finlay during the meeting, Finlay -- according to Jane Taber's report in The Globe and Mail, "started screaming at [Jennings] at the top of her lungs. . . . 'I have a right to my opinion, she screamed,' said Jennings. 'You are not going to tell me what to think.'"
That is an attitude which starts at the top with the Prime Minister. Unfortunately, Finlay's ardent defence of her right to an opinion is of little comfort to the 500,000 Canadians who have -- according to The Toronto Star -- lost their jobs since the last Labour Day. And it is Harper's opinion -- that the best government is the government which governs least -- which is responsible for our present financial morass. That opinion is also why his response is so out of touch with the times. It would, indeed, be fitting if both the Prime Minister and the Minister of Human Resources woke up to find themselves unemployed.
Now Mr. Ignatieff and his party believe they can hasten that outcome. But, to date, they have not presented Canadians with an alternative vision. Yesterday, the Liberals began running ads under the banner, "We Can Do Better." The slogan is even more alliterative in French, "Nous meritons mieux." But Ignatieff will need more than poetry and soaring rhetoric to succeed. We await his program, even as the Conservatives ready their personal attacks. Let's hope that this is an election about ideas, not about adolescent insults.
Labels: Canadian Election


The useful life of most disposable filter elements is no more than 30 hours.
Changing the filter element exposes the mechanic to carcinogenic diesel particulate matter.
The used elements need to be disposed of in accordance with environmental regulations.
If they are used at anything other than low exhaust temperatures they can catch fire.
For these reasons, Blackthorn does not recommend this type of filter. Fortunately, better alternatives are now available for all applications which previously used disposable filters.


Cancer Council WA, in partnership with Government of Western Australia, Western Australian Health Translation Network, Curtin University, Edith Cowan University, The University of Western Australia and Telethon Kids Institute, are seeking EOI applications for the Collaborative Cancer Grant Scheme. A total of $250,000 is available in this grant round.
Expressions of Intent will be sought in March 2017, for up to 10 cancer research projects to commence in 2018; funding support of $25,000 – $50,000 will be awarded for each project to encourage collaboration among early to mid-career researchers (E-MCRs). These grants aim to improve research quality and increase the competitiveness of WA early to mid-career cancer researchers by helping researchers obtain preliminary data and build collaborative networks.
For EOI details and guidance please visit the Cancer Council WA website: https://www.cancerwa.asn.au/research/funding/collaborative_cancer_grant_scheme/ – Application forms will be available from 1 March 2017. Shortlisted applicants will move to the full application stage which opens in May.
• One fully completed UWA Grant Application Cover Sheet (pages 1-2): http://www.research.uwa.edu.au/staff/rgco/forms#acdn-2 .


Lots of fun! I love the enthusiasm at crafty parties, whether learning something new or doing something they already enjoy. Many start the party saying they are not very creative and finish it quite surprised by themselves. It is always a good atmosphere and all the crafty hens delight in their creation at the end of the session.
My other job - I play the saxophone, flute and clarinet! In shows and bands and have travelled around the world. I teach music, art & crafts to all ages.
Textiles & Trimmings - I'm a creative seamstress specialising in decorative sewing processes - trimmings, beads, embroidery, patchwork, quilting, appliqué & hand-sewing. I make costumes and accessories including bags, hairbands, hats & customise clothes.
"Great fun! Gilly was really helpful and patient with my lack of stitching skills! Now keen to try some of the other courses through The Crafty Hen.


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This Week in Health Care Reform - July 22nd, 2016
High drug prices hit Medicaid's bottom line; interoperability standards are called for in telehealth; and, the evolving expenses of our health care system leave some wondering where the money goes.
Medicaid Rx: As we've seen, rising drug prices have laid waste to budgets across the health care spectrum. Despite public outrage, the alarming trend continues unabated, impacting families, businesses, and public programs. A new analysis seeks to shine a light on that spending and its impact on a specific vulnerable segment of the population: Medicaid and its 70 million beneficiaries. Prepared by the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, the report found that Medicaid spent more than $27 billion on prescription drugs in 2014, a 24 percent increase from previous years. Their analysis focused not just on the 50 costliest medicines most responsible for driving up costs, but also how frequently those drugs were prescribed. Under that rubric, 45 of the drugs were considered high-cost items, partly because of their high frequency of prescription. However, 17 were both frequently prescribed and also expensive. Regardless of how it's determined, experts continue to argue that the issue of rising drug prices, whether in Medicaid or in general, is one we can no longer afford to ignore.
Telehealth Standards: At each opportunity, telehealth has proven itself to be a facilitator when it comes to health care delivery. However, for our health care system to fully realize the benefits of telehealth's widespread application, an underlying infrastructure needs to be established. With that in mind, a new focus on nationwide interoperability standards seeks to measure what's already in place, while at the same time ensuring that our system has the requisite architecture to support new and developing technologies – a worthwhile investment, as resources continue to be allocated towards taking advantage of these advancements, while the practice of telemedicine is slowly woven into the existing med school curriculum.
Health Care Spending: Our evolving approach to health care delivery in this country has led to a greater emphasis on determining how we spend our health care dollars. A new study appearing in Health Affairs takes this examination a step further, seeking to track down where exactly the money goes. The analysis focused on three different sectors – hospitals, physicians' offices, and outpatient care centers – across a range of years – 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 – and discovered that, despite labor remaining the single largest contributor to costs, the share of revenue spent on workers declined (modestly) across the observed dates. Meanwhile, the fastest growing expense category across all of the sectors was for goods and services, which include pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and IT systems. Researchers point to regulatory and market changes, as well as economic trends and the expanding role of technology, as all influencing our health care spending, leaving others to wonder what the future holds.
With this week's GOP convention in the books, attention now turns to next week's Democratic festivities in Philadelphia.


Almost six years after this employment claim was begun, questions are raised on this appeal about the effect of section 123 of the Equality Act 2010 and whether the employment tribunal was entitled to find that it was just and equitable to extend the time under that section for bringing proceedings.
The claimant, Ms Annie Morgan, commenced employment with the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg University Local Health Board (the ``Board'') in January 2007 as a psychiatric nurse therapist. For many years the claimant has suffered from a depressive illness, though the severity of her illness has fluctuated and her symptoms have for long periods been effectively controlled by medication. Because of her illness, the claimant was absent from work from 17 July 2010 (apart from two days in July 2011) until she was dismissed by the Board on 15 December 2011. It is not in dispute that at all relevant times as a result of her illness the claimant was a disabled person within the meaning of section 6 of the Equality Act 2010.
On 14 March 2012 the claimant began proceedings before an employment tribunal making claims of discrimination on the grounds of disability and unfair dismissal. In a judgment given on 28 March 2013, the tribunal dismissed certain claims including the claim of unfair dismissal but upheld other claims, two of which remain relevant for the purpose of this appeal. First, the tribunal found that the claimant had been subjected to harassment relating to her disability by the Board's HR advisor, Ms Laura Keighan. This harassment consisted in (a) laughing when the claimant tried to talk about her rights as a disabled person at a meeting to review her long-term sickness on 8 February 2011, and (b) ignoring and failing to investigate a grievance raised by the claimant making allegations of bullying and other mistreatment. Second, the tribunal found that the Board had a duty under section 20 of the Equality Act 2010 to make reasonable adjustments for the claimant's disability by redeploying her to another role and that the Board failed to comply with this duty. In relation to these claims (and others which were upheld), the employment tribunal found that it was just and equitable to allow the claims to be brought after the end of the three month period specified in section 123(1) of the Equality Act.
The Board appealed to the Employment Appeal Tribunal, which by an order dated 18 February 2014 allowed the appeal in part. In particular, Mr Justice Langstaff, giving the judgment of the EAT, found that the employment tribunal had misunderstood a letter written by an occupational health doctor, Dr Tidley, dated 15 August 2011 and that, properly understood, the letter demonstrated that, when she was assessed by Dr Tidley on 9 August 2011, the claimant was unfit for work in any capacity. That remained the position at the time of the claimant's dismissal. Accordingly, in so far as it related to the period from August 2011, the claim based on a failure to make adjustments could not be sustained. The EAT allowed the appeal on this issue and remitted it to the employment tribunal to decide whether or not the claim was well-founded in relation to the period between April and August 2011.
The EAT also found that, in exercising its discretion to extend time under section 123 of the Equality Act, the employment tribunal had failed to consider each claim separately, had not identified or taken account of the reasons why the claimant had failed to bring each claim in time or sooner than she did, and had taken into account an erroneous perception of the strength of the reasonable adjustments claim as a result of the tribunal's misreading of Dr Tidley's report. Accordingly, the question whether it was just and equitable to extend time in respect of each relevant claim was also remitted to the tribunal for reconsideration.
The matters remitted to the employment tribunal were reconsidered at a further hearing (though, in accordance with the EAT's directions, no new evidence was received). In a judgment promulgated on 20 March 2015, the employment tribunal found that the claim based on a failure to make adjustments, although now confined to the period from April to August 2011, was well-founded and that it was just and equitable to extend the time for bringing that claim and also the claim of harassment by Ms Keighan.
The Board again appealed to the Employment Appeal Tribunal. In a judgment handed down on 8 March 2016, His Honour Judge Shanks (sitting alone) dismissed the appeal. The Board then applied for, and was granted, permission to pursue a further appeal to this court, on which it has re-argued the same grounds. For the reasons which follow, none of those grounds in my view has merit.
The first ground of appeal is, in essence, that the employment tribunal's conclusion that the reasonable adjustments claim is well-founded is inconsistent with a finding made by the tribunal that the time for bringing the claim began to run ``by no later than the beginning of August 2011''. It was argued by Mr Allsop for the Board that the logical consequence of that finding is that there was no breach of the duty to make reasonable adjustments and that the tribunal should therefore have dismissed the claim.
In its second judgment the employment tribunal found that the disadvantage to the claimant of being unable to work in her existing role could have been overcome by offering her a different role and that, on the balance of probabilities, there were other suitable roles available during the period from April to August 2011 which the Board could have offered the claimant. The tribunal found that in these circumstances there had been a failure by the Board to comply with its duty under section 20 of the Equality Act.
(b) such other period as the employment tribunal thinks just and equitable.


When it comes to the law, the uncertainty of it can be overwhelming to many people. Life is complicated enough as it is without having to worry about even more complex legal matters. Here at Tortorich and Associates LLC, we take great care in lifting the fog of uncertainty, and bring some clarity to your legal matters.
We would like to tell you a little bit about ourselves, as a homegrown Wyoming firm, we take great pride in making things as easy on you as possible while we provide you with the highest quality legal counsel. Tortorich and Associates was founded in 2014, and is fledgling but growing firm. At Tortorich and Associates LLC you will see an expression of Wyoming, and it's rich heritage. Located at one of downtown Cheyenne's historic homes, our clients experience the comfort of meeting with our attorneys like they are meeting them in their own home. Ran and operated by attorneys who love our beautiful state, Tortorich and Associates LLC aims to provide the best legal counsel for fellow citizens who call Wyoming home.
Our friendly and professional staff works their hardest to make sure you feel at home, and our hardworking attorneys make your matters their priority. We handle matters such as Estate Planning, Civil Litigation, Business Law, Contract Disputes. We know that the legal system can be stressful, and we work to provide you with prompt response times to emails and phone calls, excellent professional legal counsel, and deep empathic compassion. We strive to provide excellent service to you to give you peace of mind while we settle your important legal matters with the best possible outcome for you.


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A short course in propaganda (for Muslims), courtesy of Yasir Qadhi — Part 3
"The mufti and his people have declared war upon us. We have no alternative but… to fight for our lives, for our safety, for what we have accomplished in Palestine, for Jewish honour, for Jewish independence." — Golda Meir, a Jewish woman who got the money which made the state possible.
ANJULI PANDAVAR
Jul 27, 2021 • 14 min read
"One group still holds a strong place in all our memories and stands for all of those we have lost at the games: the members of the Israel delegation at the Olympic Games Munich 1972."
This five-lesson course on propaganda is based on Sheikh Dr Yasir Qadhi's "Five Questions" that render the State of Israel "illegitimate".
Part 1, Part 2, Part 4, Part 5
The aim of this course is to help lay Muslims see how their "scholars" and sheikhs manipulate them and keep them ignorant. To be a proud Muslim, it is necessary to be ignorant. This works, if the Muslim only ever interacts with Muslims. In the modern world, ignorance is a distinct handicap. But the lay Muslim's ignorance is the only way the "scholars" can maintain their social power over ordinary Muslims. So they keep Muslims ignorant despite Muslims now having access to alternative information to that which their sheikhs tell them to memorise. It is for the Muslims to recognise how they have been played, and to say, enough!
In the course so far:
Dear Muslim,
Thank you for coming back. I hope that you've found some time to consider or to discuss with another Muslim, how you would prove: "fifty-five percent of that region was allocated to Jewish Zionists; forty-five percent was given to the local Arabs." In doing this, you might have looked for proof of the kind that makes hadith "sahih": who said it and how many believe it. In a time and place where irrefutable evidence is scant, access to such evident unavailable, and knowledge on how to interpret evidence non-existent, such as in the Muslim lands of over a thousand years ago, it might be that the best evidence available for any claim was a matter of who said it and how many people believed it. So hadith are "sahih" because someone you for some reason trust said that someone he trusts heard it from someone that person trusts, who heard it from someone that next person trusts, and so on and on. What's wrong with that, you may ask. They are all Muslims. And that is your first problem.
You accept what people say based on who they are, and not on whether what they say corresponds with reality, or worse, whether what they say even corresponds with what they say. This state of affairs has existed amongst Muslims for over a thousand years because all knowledge, while Muslims had no contact with the wider world, was religious knowledge. This is why Yasir Qadhi still uses the stupid formulation "student of knowledge", implying that outside of Islam, there is nothing to know.
But you know that those people who have only Islamic knowledge, like members of Tablighi Jamaat, or madrassa teachers, or many graduates from Islamic universities, etc., are basically useless, yet conduct themselves like great sages. Would you ever challenge them? No, you would not. And why not? — because they command your respect. Despite their spectacular ignorance, they command your respect because they can say more about Islam than you can. The knowledge they have that makes them so special is completely useless, except that it enables them to command your respect. And it is respect that you readily give. This is because you have accepted they have knowledge and you do not. Worse than that, you have accepted that they can have knowledge and you cannot. This is your second problem.
It is not for you to decide what knowledge a sheikh or "scholar" can have and what knowledge not. You need knowledge to make such a distinction. When Yasir Qadhi makes claims about the world, about history, about psychology, about culture, and so forth, you accept what he says without question because not only does he have knowledge that you do not have, he has knowledge that you cannot have. But it is worse than even this. The knowledge that you do not have and cannot have, you also may not have. The "scholars" are quite firm that it is a grave sin for you to have whatever knowledge they have. You have accepted this scam right from your madrassa days.
What would you do to prove that, "fifty-five percent of that region was allocated to Jewish Zionists; forty-five percent was given to the local Arabs?" Where would you even begin? You have only one way of finding out anything: ask a sheikh. That's it. And why would you ask another sheikh if one sheikh has already told you? Do you not believe? Do you have doubt? Are you an imbecile, a weakling? Are you a kafir?
Of course you will not try to look it up in a book, because how do you know that that book has the truth if you sheikh did not tell you to read it? The only book that you can trust is the book that your sheikh tells you to read. So you are back where you started. The only reason your sheikh or "scholar" tells you to read a book is because that book says what he says. And here the sheikh plays another trick on you. He pretends to be humble. Don't just take my word for it, go read that book, go, go read it. That writer says it too, and he is a Jew. He is not even a Muslim. Right there, your sheikh insults you twice over.
When Yasir Qadhi says that someone who is "not even a Muslim" says something that supports what Muslims say, and therefore what he says must be true, he is saying that everything that Muslims say is true because they are Muslims. It is possible that you think so, too, in which case you see no insult. But then Yasir Qadhi quotes a Jew who agrees with Muslims against Jews, and therefore what that Jew says must be true, he is saying that anyone, no matter what their religion, can only say what their religion tells them to say. No one is capable of thinking for themselves. If someone goes so far as to say something against their own religion, against their own people, then surely, that person speaks the truth.
More than forty years ago, when I was still a Muslim, I did exactly what Yasir Qadhi's selected Jew did. I realised that all religions are bad and Islam is the worst of all existing religions, and I went so far as to say so. Now I ask you this question: was I speaking the truth because I was a Muslim, or was I speaking the truth because I was prepared to go so far as to speak against Islam, my own religion? By the logic that Yasir Qadhi wants you to read the truth the Jew speaks, you must accept that I, too, speak the truth. Note, though, that I do not agree with this logic. The truth has nothing whatsoever to do with who I am.
Yes, there is a neat trick where you can say that when a Muslim disagrees with Muslims, then he is no longer a Muslim anyway, but then you still have to answer the question of why you will not accept it when one kafir, an ex-Muslim, disagrees with Muslims, but you are quite eager to accept what another kafir, a Jew, says when that Jew agrees with Muslims. If this is the way you think, then you are still a long way from proving: "fifty-five percent of that region was allocated to Jewish Zionists; forty-five percent was given to the local Arabs," and Yasir Qadhi will continue to treat you as someone only fit to memorise and regurgitate, as your sheikhs and "scholars" have been doing for over a thousand years.
The ummah is not in a mess because they've "strayed from the straight path" or because the colonialists waged wars against you or because whites are such nasty people, no. The ummah is in a mess because its sheikhs and "scholars" have turned it into a mess. And they have done this by telling you that you cannot have knowledge, and they succeeded because you accepted that.
The third question.
Yasir Qadhi's third question:
What gave the newly-found (sic) State of Israel the moral right to, on the eve of its inauguration, as soon as it is born, to immediately launch a full-out offensive, to immediately force almost a million people to flee, to massacre thousands of people ...and to acquire almost 80% of the land?
Lies, half-truths and cynical interpretations (underlined): ...in August (sic) of 1948 the State of Israel declares its inauguration (sic). Immediately, the next day, they launch an offensive, against whom? Against armies? Against the standing trained soldiers? No, against farmers and peasants; against people who have been farming there for generations and centuries. Against people who don't have weapons. ...And the army of Israel, armed to the teeth, the precursors to the IDF, they now start attacking villages. Over 450 villages were attacked. Massacres occurred in dozens of places, most infamously, Deir Yassin. ...We have documented evidence. The Israeli Ministry has plenty of paperwork that they try to cover up, and even Israeli historians ...the most significant historian in this regard is Ilan Pappe, write his name down, purchase all of his books. He is an Israeli, born and raised, historian at I believe Ben-Gurion University, and he had to leave his position because of his research. He was getting death threats [from] his own fellow citizens, and he is currently living in England. But he is somebody who's researched the creation of Israel, and he has discussed and documented all of the cases of massacres. ...Over 450 villages were wiped out. ...Their people had to flee for their lives. ...They're interviewing old people about their memories of 1948, about the massacres that they saw, about their women and children being killed, about husbands in Deir Yassin over 100 people were gunned down—villagers—and then thrown into the well of the village. Now, what's going to happen if you are in the next village and you hear that 100 people have just been killed? You're going to flee for your life, and that's exactly what happened. Almost a million Palestinians, mass panic, mass chaos, and this is called the first catastrophe, the Nakba. What gave this illegitimate state the right to engage in war crimes, to massacre, to terrify and terrorise almost a million people, and those people who fled, those are the ones now across the globe. Over seven million Palestinians are in the diaspora. ...It [Israel] was given 55%, ...but the were not happy. They are never happy. Zionist greed knows no bounds. No matter what you give them, they want more. They were given the majority of the land, nope! They don't want that much; they want more. The day they're born, they go to war, and they conquer more than 80%. Make no mistake about this. This was a planned and calculated offensive. They knew that they wanted more land. They were not happy at the UN Resolution giving them 55% of the land. They wanted more and they got it: ...Almost two-thirds of what was assigned to our Palestinian brothers and sisters was taken in 1948.
The trap you're walking into
Over 450 villages were wiped out. ...Their people had to flee for their lives. ...They're interviewing old people about their memories of 1948, about the massacres that they saw, about their women and children being killed.
So says Yasir Qadhi. Why does he make such an obviously preposterous claim? He does so because he takes it for granted that you will simply believe him, and you will. You will believe him because what he says makes Muslims look good and Jews look bad, and such talk is exactly what you want to hear. And all of that is fine; we are all free to believe absolutely anything we want. Except...
Except that Yasir Qadhi wants you to go out there and say these things to the world so you can support Palestine. If you do that, the very first thing critics are going to do is find those interviews with those old people and hear for themselves what they had to say about those massacres of 1948. This is what you should do, but you will not, for all the reasons I've already outlined. We, critics of Islam, did that, and this is what those old people had to say:
"The Arab armies entered Palestine, along with the [Arab] Salvation Army." Armies? Yasir?
How We Really Became Refugees. That is the title of the old people's video. why did they leave their villages? In these testimonies of thirteen people, all fleeing for their lives from massacres, as Yasir Qadhi describes it, no one seems to remember any of these massacres. Only one of them, a gentleman by the name of Mahmoud Abbas, mentions a massacre:
The [Arab] Salvation Army withdrew from the city [Safed in 1948], causing the [Arab] people to begin emigrating. In Safed, just like Hebron, people were afraid that the Jews would take revenge for the [Arab] massacre of 1929... (Note: sixty-five Jews were murdered in Hebron, eighteen in Safed). [In 1948,] the people were overcome with fear, and it caused them to leave the city in a disorderly way. ...They took us east, east of Safed, to the Jordan River" – PA Chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, refugee from Safed, northern Israel.
Yasir Qadhi wants you to memorise that "they launch an offensive, against whom? Against armies? Against the standing trained soldiers? No, against farmers and peasants."
Oddly, every single one of the people interviewed seems to have imagined things called "the Palestinians, the fighters", "the Jordanian Army", "The Arab Salvation Army", and "the Arab armies" that were "fighting", engaging in "battles", holding a "frontline", and so forth. They seem to remember, "war between Arabs and Israel", rather than an Israeli, "offensive against farmers and peasants". Each and everyone of them recalls the "Arab Salvation Army" telling them things like, "We have come in order to exterminate the Zionists and their state." They even say, "The Arab armies entered Palestine, along with the [Arab] Salvation Army." Here are some more testimonies:
The one who made us leave was the Jordanian Army, because there were going to be battles and we would get under their feet
— Fuad Khader, from Bir Ma'in, central Israel.
The radio stations of the Arab regimes kept repeating to us, 'Get away from the frontline!'
– Anonymous, from Ein Karem, Jerusalem.
Cars with megaphones roamed the streets demanding that people leave so the fighting would succeed. They called us in Arabic to leave our homes. We, the Palestinians, the fighters, want to fight, and don't want you to impede us. so we ask you to leave the city [Jaffa] immediately. All of us... left any way we could. We went to the port and boarded a ship.
– Former Jordanian MP, Tala Abu Ghazaleh, from Jaffa, central Israel.
We heard sounds of explosions and gunfire at the beginning of the summer in the year of the Nakba [1948]. We were told that the Jews attacked our region and it is better to evacuate the village and return when the battle is over,
— Asma Jabir Balasimah, from Kafr Saba, central Israel.
Our [Arab] district officer issued an order that whoever stays in Palestine and in Majdal is a traitor. The one who gave the order forbidding them to stay there bears guilt for this.
– Head of Islamic Movement in Israel, Ibrahim Sarsur, whose grandfather was from Majdal, southern Israel.
The Arab armies entered Palestine, along with the [Arab] Salvation Army. ...We and those who fled with us... headed for Lebanon
— Sadek Mufid, from Dir Al-Qasi, northern Israel.
In the Palestinian Nakba, the first war between Arabs and Israel had started, and the Arab Salvation Army told the Palestinians: 'We have come in order to exterminate the Zionists and their state. Leave your houses and villages,
— Jawad Al-Bashiti,
You [Arab] leaders are still searching for ways to provide aid ...like the armies of your predecessors in 1948 who forced us to emigrate on the pretext of clearing the battlefield of civilians,
— PA daily columnist, Fuad Abu Hajla.
When news reached us that the Jews were nearing our village, the Arab [Salvation] Army came and said, 'Leave the village so it won't happen to you like, Deir Yassin. They slaughter, and do things.' They said, 'Leave, but don't go far from the village.'
— Ali Muhammad Karake, from Allar, central Israel.
The truth is that the Jews brought a mediator to us, a person we knew and who knew us. They gave us choices. The first was that you hand over your weapons and stay on your land and live the way you live. The second choice was that you leave if you don't hand over [your weapons]. If you don't want to leave and go away, prepare yourselves for battle. All three were hard... For me, handing over my rifle at that time [was] actually like handing over my wife.
— Abu Muhammad 'Amara.
"They launch an offensive, against whom? Against armies? Against the standing trained soldiers? No, against farmers and peasants."
Now comes the crux of the matter. In Ridley Scott's 2005 film Kingdom of Heaven, the kings and barons of the Latin Christians of the Levant, together with the leaders of their armies, debated whether to ride out and attack Salah ad-Din. In a rowdy scene, anyone who suggested, even for very sound, practical reasons, that the Christian armies would be defeated, was immediately and roundly condemned as a blasphemer. The Christians rode out with great conviction straight into the Battle of Hattin, and the rest, as they say, is history.
More important than what Yasir Qadhi wants you to know is what he does not want you to know.
"A Zionist armoured vehicle seized by the Muslim Mujahideen after fierce battles in 1948"
At Israel's independence in 1948, five Arab armies immediately invaded the country. The Arab Salvation Army, a.k.a. the "Arab Liberation Army," a Syrian proxy force formed to give Syria the edge over Egypt and especially over Jordan, all three wanting to annex large parts of Palestine when the British departed, had already been active inside Palestine before Israel declared independence. Now it took to harassing Arabs to leave Palestine. Why? How many Muslims were sceptical about the "back in a few days" promises of the Arab leaders and the invading Arab armies? How many Muslims wondered about the ALA's ability to defeat the Jews, given their abysmal record of defeats till then.
Certainly, there were Arabs who had reason to fear the Jews, especially in places where Arabs had massacred Jews in 1920-21 and in 1929. But it seems from the old people interviewed that many were reluctant to leave, and only did so after threats of condemnations as traitors, or being scared with ALA horror stories that the Jews "slaughter, and do things," — "do things" meaning rape. There remains a great deal still to be uncovered. Whatever the true story finally turns out to be, what is certain is that it will bear little resemblance to the narrative that Yasir Qadhi is building for you. But the more numerous the people who believe him, the more sahih his narration becomes. And that's all he needs, for now.
When a conflict between Muslims and the kufaar breaks out, you automatically support the Muslims, as is to be expected. But you go further than that. You equate anything less than complete belief in Muslim victory with wishing for Muslim defeat, and so you insist that the Muslims will be victorious, never considering whether this is actually possible or not. Every Muslim does this. The real Nakba, the real calamity, is the Muslim armies going to war on the basis of a delusion — Allah is with us, and no one can defeat Allah. The Muslim armies boasted that they would take Tel Aviv in two weeks. Such delusion they call loyalty. You, dear Muslim, suffer from this same delusion.
Yasir Qadhi relies on your accepting that when a Muslim says something, it is the truth. I think we might assume that each one of the Palestinians interviewed in this Palestinian video is a Muslim. This leaves you with a problem: either Yasir Qadhi is lying, or all these Muslims are lying. Which is it going to be? How will you decide? They cannot both be telling the truth. At least grant yourself that.
The Christians before the Battle of Hattin thought in the same way as you do, and it was easy to manipulate them into anything. The question here is not whether Yasir Qadhi is or is not telling the truth — he quite obviously is not — the Palestinians themselves, from his own chosen source, the 1948 interviews, are blasting huge holes in his Palestinian narrative. The important question is: why is he lying to you? What is he trying to get you to think or do? That is the point of propaganda.
You might have noticed that I have not touched on the massacre of Deir Yassin, or the massacre of Kfar Etzion, or any of the many other massacres. This is neither to deny, nor to trivialise these events. These tragedies are powerful and emotive, and lavishly exploited by all who can exploit them. To discuss them here would draw this course on propaganda into the rights and wrongs of either side, and dilute its focus. There is much that can be said on that topic and my views may be deduced from the general thrust of this website.
Things to think about, or to discuss with other Muslims:
Yasir Qadhi is lying to you for the same reason that the Arab rulers and Arab armies lied to the Arabs in Israel in 1948. What do you say to that?
Yom HaShoah 2023 series - 3
For three nights, in commemoration of Yom HaShoah on 27 January, Murtadd to Human is publishing a series of articles that draws attention to the rising anti-Semitism around the world. Our third article is Andrzej Koraszewski's critique of the media's reporting on Israel and Palestinian terrorism.
For three nights, in commemoration of Yom HaShoah on 27 January, Murtadd to Human is publishing a series of articles that draws attention to the rising anti-Semitism around the world. Our second article is my critique of Dion J. Pierre's report on anti-Semitism in Palestinian textbooks.
For the next three nights, in commemoration of Yom HaShoah on 27 January, Murtadd to Human is publishing a series of articles that draws attention to the rising anti-Semitism around the world. We open the series with an article by my friend Andrzej Koraszewski, commenting on an article of mine.


When Katniss returns to her old house to drop off her hunting gear, she comments that despite the fact that she and her family now have a comfortable life in a larger house in the Victor's Village, her only true home is her old house where they barely survived. For Katniss, the old house represents a former life when she was happy and safe. Though she starved and fought every day, she knew who she was and understood her place in society. Now, she just feels like a prisoner trapped in her own world. Her feelings of emptiness, isolation, and discontent all contribute to some of the novel's major themes: imprisonment and entrapment by the Capitol.
The new house in the Victor's Village is a symbol of Katniss' fear and discomfort following her victory in the Games. After she and Peeta were crowned the winning tributes, the Capitol's government officials viewed her as a dangerous threat to their system. The Capitol hates her for her popularity in the districts and her ability to influence Panem. Her strained relationship with Gale and loss of sense of self have her mourning for her old life before the Games.
Even Peeta, who could serve as a source of comfort for Katniss, is distant and cold toward her. When he found out she was only pretending to love him as part of a strategy to win the Games, he was hurt and stopped speaking to her. His feelings for Katniss are genuine.
While Katniss and Peeta were a source of hope, survival, and companionship for one another during the Games, they are now distant and isolated. She always felt safe and protected when she was with Peeta, but now she just feels alone and guilty for hurting someone who has been nothing but kind to her. Katniss isn't sure what her flirting with and kissing Peeta meant to her, but she does know it was — and still is — confusing for her, and painful for Gale to watch. Her broken relationship with Peeta, complicated friendship with Gale, and loss of self-identity all contribute to her growing hatred of the Capitol.
When Peeta arrives at Haymitch's with the bread, Katniss notes that each of them has their own way of dealing with the horror and pain of the Games. Peeta bakes, Haymitch drinks, and Katniss hunts. Though they should be bonded by their connection to the Games, the three of them, especially Peeta and Katniss, suffer in solitude. Their relationships have been severely damaged as a result of the Games because it is too painful for them to acknowledge the violence and death they caused.


Should You Rent A Home Or Own?
As the housing market meltdown continues unabated, a report released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) and the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) shows that in many bubble-inflated markets, homeownership remains a costly and risky proposition.
The study, "The Changing Prospects for Building Home Equity: An Updated Analysis of Rents and the Price of Housing in 100 Metropolitan Areas," evaluates the median house price and fair market rent, as determined by HUD, for the 100 largest metropolitan areas. The study extends and updates the methodology from two earlier studies, "Ownership, Rental Costs and the Prospects of Building Home Equity: A Comparison of 100 Metropolitan Areas," and "The Cost of Maintaining Home Ownership in the Current Crisis: Comparisons in 20 Cities."
The new analysis shows the wide diversity in housing markets across the country. While many metropolitan housing markets continue to be subject to real estate bubbles, prices are not out of line with rents in large parts of the country. The findings of the report again show the importance of not relying on a one-size-fits-all solution to the current housing crisis.
The report also notes the problems that many homeowners are likely to face finding quality rental housing due to its limited availability.
"Despite the extreme downward pressure in homeownership and labor markets, rental vacancy rates remain stable and rents continue to inch up" said Danilo Pelletiere, NLIHC Research Director and a co-author of the report. "There was a critical need for affordable rental housing before the foreclosure crisis and the problem is only getting worse. Creating affordable rental housing in the face of foreclosure is important to keep people in their communities and stabilize housing markets."
According to the report, which analyzed data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS), the most inflated markets currently see monthly homeownership costs outpacing rental costs by as much as 300 percent. This creates a substantial and unnecessary drain on household income, especially for middle- and lower- income families.
"This could mean that families may have to forgo health insurance or quality child care as they struggle to make their mortgage payments, " said Dean Baker, Co-Director of CEPR and an author of the study. "Furthermore, since prices are still falling in these markets, many homeowners won't ever accrue any equity."
The study projects that even though prospects for equity accrual have improved slightly in bubble markets, most homeowners will still leave their homes with large amounts of negative equity if house prices return to trend levels. For example, it projects that by the year 2012, homeowners in New York will have $101,964 of negative equity and in Los Angeles, the shortfall would be $168,069. In these, and other bubble markets, households would benefit from proposals that attempt to provide affordable rental options as part of policy solutions.
For cities where the costs of owning are much closer to rental costs, it is likely that a small amount of equity will be accrued. In these markets, policies that keep owners in their homes, possibly through some form of government-guaranteed mortgage, are preferable.