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03/04/2011 | Economia y Finanzas
Reverberations from the 11 March earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the damage they caused to the Fukushima nuclear power station have spread across the Pacific to Latin America, where five countries are either expanding their nuclear power programmes or have recently been considering developing them.
Moody's has downgraded its debt ratings for 30 Spanish banks by one or more notches, after downgrading its sovereign credit rating due to concerns that the cost of the recapitalisation of the Spanish banking sector could be considerably higher than official estimates.
Having set out its plans for fiscal consolidation in its June 2010 emergency budget and October 2010 Spending Review, the coalition government is positioning its 23 March budget as "going for growth." With no money available, this must focus on creating a more friendly business environment through cutting red tape and reducing regulations.
26/02/2011 | Frente Externo
After more than 10 days of violent clashes across Yemen, which left as many as 12 anti-government protesters dead, President Ali Abdullah Saleh once again called for dialogue in a rare press conference with international media on 21 February.
"Flash" data show that underlying German economic growth remained robust during the fourth quarter of 2010 despite a temporary dampening influence from construction investment.
Taiwan's economy staged a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2010, higher than the preliminary figure, as all drivers continued to steam ahead.
Egypt's supreme council of the armed forces, composed of the nation�s top commanders, has assumed control after embattled president Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday (11 February), ending 29 years of autocratic rule.
In the latest dramatic twist in Egypt�s protracted political drama, President Hosni Mubarak finally announced his resignation today and the transfer of power to the military.
Four days of consecutive fighting between Thai and Cambodian border forces between 4 and 7 February is the latest battle in a long-running bitter border dispute between the neighbours; while the prospects for full-scale armed conflict remain low, the intensity of the fighting and heated nationalist rhetoric have raised fears the spat could escalate.
Indonesia's economy expanded by 6.9% year-on-year during the final quarter of 2010, marking a six-year high and bringing the annual average growth to a respectable 6.1%.
Egypt's largest opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, is back in the fore, jostling for position ahead of key talks aimed at shaping a new future for the protest-wracked nation.
The dismissal and replacement of the Jordanian government yesterday has increased pressure on King Abdullah and his political allies to deliver more far-reaching political and economic reforms in the hope of staving off further popular protest.
The emergency reshuffle has left the cabinet line-up largely unchanged and failed to appease the tens of thousands of protesters calling for the president to step down.
28 Jan 11: IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh reports that three major themes seem to be emerging from the Davos World Economic Forum.
Nariman Behravesh's insights from the Davos World Economic Forum indicate that as jitters about a double dip are subsiding, anxieties about "grand experiments" and "end games" are on the rise.
Nariman Behravesh's insights from the Davos World Economic Forum indicate that despite increased optimism amongst delegates, there are still numerous concerns.
Egypt has been put on high alert following one of the biggest anti-government protests for three decades.
It is highly likely that a general election will be brought forward in Ireland after the Green Party pulled out of the governing coalition and Prime Minister Brian Cowen quit as Fianna F�il leader over the weekend (22�23 January).
The ouster of Tunisia's long-term ruler Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali�the first overthrow of an Arab leader by popular revolt in recent history�has raised nerves in an already jittery region.
China's President Hu Jintao arrived in the U.S. capital yesterday for a full state visit, providing an opportunity to gauge the fast-evolving relationship between the two economic and geopolitical giants.
Although China has secured its place as the world's second largest economy in 2010 with solid double-digit growth, inflationary concerns remain ever-present, despite the slight pull-back in December's CPI.
After a high-level meeting between Iraqi central government and Kurdistan Regional Government officials, an agreement resolving the oil impasse is understood to have been reached, with oil exports now reported to resume from Iraqi Kurdistan on 1 February.
Ukraine's economy benefited from the global rebound, but a full-fledged recovery has yet to emerge; despite Ukraine's many weaknesses, the current outlook gives reason for cautious optimism.
In a landmark agreement, U.K. supermajor BP and Russian state-run oil major Rosneft have agreed to form a strategic alliance that involves a share swap and includes a plan to jointly explore and develop an area in the Russian Arctic covering 125,000 sq. km.
After 23 years of iron-fist rule, Tunisia's former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country on 14 January, leaving Tunisia to grapple with a dangerous power vacuum.
Flooding in Queensland has wreaked havoc on the country's infrastructure and key industries, thus ruling out an upgrade to the country's growth forecast for 2011.
Hizbollah and its March 8 alliance partners in Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement resigned from the Lebanese unity government yesterday, precipitating another political crisis in the country.
12/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Basque separatist group ETA has issued yet another call for a permanent ceasefire, but the Spanish government has once again rejected the declaration, insisting that it will continue with its highly successful clampdown in operation since 2008.
German real GDP grew 3.6% in 2010, rebounding sharply after the record contraction during 2009.
Tens of thousands of southern Sudanese have continued to flock to polling stations up and down the country for a second day today in a vote that could lead to the creation of the world�s newest state.
Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as Brazilian president on 1 January promising to honour the legacy of her former mentor, Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva who stepped down after eight years in power.
Following Dilma Rousseff's historic inauguration as president on 1 January, Brazil's new government will face tough security challenges as it prepares to host the 2014 football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games.
The Belgian government has reached the end of its six month EU presidency, which can be considered a relative success in view of the recent crises in the Eurozone, as well as the ongoing stalemate in Belgian parliamentary politics.
France's economy grew for the sixth consecutive quarter during the third quarter of 2010, although at a slightly more moderate pace than previously estimated.
Social unrest continues in Bolivia after the controversial end brought to fuel subsidies on 26 December.
Fitch downgraded Portugal's rating by one notch, citing concerns about the economy and the current financial environment.
Economic indicators next week will be relatively sparse, so markets will not have much to bite into until the fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off in the new year.
The "lame duck" session of Congress is proving anything but, with a succession of victories�albeit with compromises along the way�for President Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership.
European Union leaders have agreed to a permanent bailout facility, although divisions remain between member states over possible solutions to avert future potential crises in the Eurozone.
China's central leadership has set out the country's economic agenda for next year at the just concluded annual economic conference, with price stability and economic structure adjustment sitting on top of the agenda.
Kosovo is due to hold a snap general election this weekend, but with traditional voting patterns engrained it is unlikely that new political movements will be given dominance despite the traditional parties failing to present programmes to address the country's woes, which range from economic underdevelopment to high-level corruption.
The expected slowdown of the Mexican economy materialised in the third quarter of 2010 as GDP expanded only 0.7%, down from a revised 2.3% in the second quarter, with deceleration of industrial production in the United States the main driver.
Ireland's latest fiscal consolidation plan does little to help households and increases the country's reliance on an export-led recovery, raising the risk of a setback should the economic revival in core Europe and the encouraging rebound in the United Kingdom falter. As a result, IHS Global Insight has downgraded Ireland's Economic Risk Rating from 2.75 to 3.00.
Despite positive results in the manufacturing and utilities sectors, Venezuela's economy posted a small contraction in the third quarter of 2010.
Japan posted a GDP growth rate of 3.9% in the third quarter, mainly due to a surge in private consumption, which in turn reflected the fact that tax incentives would soon disappear and that tobacco taxes were about to rise.
After stagnating in the third quarter, the Spanish economy continued to struggle at the start of the fourth quarter, signalled by deteriorating consumer confidence, contracting service-sector activity and tumbling new car sales.
The European Union-International Monetary Fund task force is going through the Irish books to ascertain how much more firepower Ireland needs to deal with its banking problems; the Irish central bank has suggested that a deal worth "several tens of billions of euro" now seems likely.
Myanmar's military regime released opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest on Saturday (13 November); but although this is positive news and could see efforts on the part of opposition forces to re-unite, it does not signal a significant shift in Myanmar's politics.
The Opel Ampera faces a tough battle in the European market as a result of its high sticker price, especially when put up against its most efficient conventionally powered rivals.
Eurozone GDP growth more than halved to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the third quarter from 1.0% q/q in the second, but the year-on-year growth rate was stable at 1.9%; growth was again led by Germany, where GDP climbed 0.7% q/q, but elsewhere the performance was mixed.
Montenegro is the clear winner of the latest round of European Union (EU) progress reports as it has been declared ready to start accession negotiations; however, with Turkey and Former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia struggling to progress and support for membership waning in Iceland, the future timetable of EU enlargement remains wide open.
Narrowly avoiding a serious political crisis, Iraq's political factions have agreed to a deal that paves the way for a unity government and raises some hopes for an improvement in the operational uncertainty for foreign investors and oil companies in the country.
Greeks go to the polls this Sunday to cast their votes in municipal elections which are being cast as a public referendum for the left-leaning government; weak support for the government could trigger an early parliamentary election, causing political instability as well as undermining the country's long-term economic recovery.
Largely in line with predictions, the Republicans achieved a huge swing in the House of Representatives, but failed to secure the Senate; the results are a heavy blow to President Barack Obama and his legislative agenda, but the failure of some Tea Party-backed candidates suggests the Republican Party also has its strategic work cut out ahead of 2012.
At its meeting on 2�3 November, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a process of quantitative easing, launching a US$600-billion eight-month programme of purchases of long-term securities.
Argentina's former president N�stor Kirchner (2003�07), husband of incumbent president Cristina Fern�ndez de Kirchner and an expected candidate in next year's presidential elections, died yesterday, news of which has shaken the country's political establishment.
Following a bloody popular uprising in April and days of lethal ethnic clashes in June, Kyrgyzstan is gearing up for a parliamentary election on 10 October to build the first parliamentary democracy in former Soviet Central Asia.
Severe police unrest in Ecuador did not spiral into a coup d'�tat, but one of the region's most unstable countries is heading for tumultuous times.
Record expansion was seen in the second quarter; good performance was observed across all sectors, especially agriculture.
The Bank of Japan has intervened in foreign-exchange markets, selling yen and buying dollars; its purpose was to halt the recent appreciation of the yen�and perhaps weaken the yen�thus keeping Japanese exports more competitive in global markets.
Detailed data on developments in Russian GDP in the second quarter confirmed the flash estimate of 5.2% year-on-year growth; on the sector-of-origin side, manufacturing, transport and trade led the recovery, sectors that were particularly hard hit by the recession in 2008-09.
Greek legislators yesterday approved a major overhaul of the pension system, increasing the retirement age and cutting pension benefits; the vote also posed a test of the government's unity and demonstrated Greece's resolve to tackle the economic crisis.
The plot is thickening around last year's thwarted attempt to bomb the New York subway system; charges announced yesterday in the United States and arrests today in Norway and the United Kingdom point to concerted international efforts by al-Qaida leaders to direct attacks.
Acting president Goodluck Jonathan yesterday swore in his new cabinet, placing himself more firmly at the centre of the Nigerian political order and marginalising ailing president Umaru Yar'Adua's "cabal".
On Friday (2 April) Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin made his first ever trip to Venezuela, securing bilateral economic and political ties.
Goodluck Jonathan has dissolved Nigeria's 42-member cabinet, leaving questions as to what shape the new line-up will take.
The killing of a U.S. citizen working for the consulate in Ciudad Ju�rez and of a further two individuals linked to the consulate could prove another point of inflection in the Mexican government�s fight against drug-trafficking.
The notorious Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has sought to gain as much media exposure as possible by orchestrating two car-bomb attacks outside the Delta State Government House in Warri, causing unconfirmed injuries and one reported death.
The draft 2010 budget report of the Chinese government points to continued counter-cyclical fiscal expansion this year, although there is a clear shift of policy focus from short-term growth to long-term structural adjustment as well as welfare improvement.
Relative calm has been restored to villages to the south of Jos after armed men went on the rampage over the weekend, killing scores of people and destroying homes and businesses.
Eurostat has confirmed that Eurozone GDP edged up just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the fourth quarter of 2009, disappointingly down from growth of 0.4% q/q in the third quarter.
Iraq's upcoming elections will challenge the several-year political and security trend which has been comparatively positive.
Impacts will vary by commodity.The earthquake and related tsunami in Chile will have an impact on the country's trade, but disruptions to most Chilean exports likely will be temporary. The duration and significance of trade impacts will vary by the type of commodity and production and import locations within the country.
India's government has begun to roll back spending and has provided a roadmap towards fiscal discipline.
Chile was hit by a massive earthquake measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale two days ago; at the time of writing the death toll has risen to 711 and two million more have been affected, and the damage caused has led to a downgrade in IHS Global Insight's Operational Risk Rating from 2.25 to 2.50.
Viktor Yanukovych, the winner of the 7 February presidential election, was sworn in today as the fourth president of independent Ukraine despite the continued refusal of the losing candidate, current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, to admit defeat.
U.K. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 has been revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) from the previously reported 0.1% q/q; downward revisions have been made to the back data, however, meaning that the recession was deeper than earlier stated.
The arrest of an unprecedented number of Turkish military staff has raised concerns about the government's willingness to peacefully coexist with other branches of the state; the army�already humiliated by previous arrests in relation to coups it denied plotting�is likely to retaliate if the government continues to challenge it so openly in public, presumably shortly before the 2011 parliamentary election.
Taiwan's economy resumed growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, following five consecutive quarters of contraction�a broad-based pick-up in activities helped to drive the stronger-than-expected result.
The Dutch government has collapsed after the two largest coalition parties�the Christian Democratic Appeal and the Labour Party�failed to reach agreement on the extension of the Netherlands' military mission in Afghanistan.
Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has committed to prioritise spending on infrastructure and employment creation, while keeping the fiscal shortfall in check.
The political crisis in Niger has been pushed to critical new heights with the capture of President Mamadou Tandja and the apparent dissolution of all state institutions.
In the summer of 2008, crude oil prices approached $150 per barrel, raising both the price at the pump for gasoline and the price for a gallon of diesel dramatically. Thus, as the price of crude oil increases, so do the rates for moving goods from one location to another.
A further fall in Spanish GDP in the fourth quarter was expected and supports IHS Global Insight's view that the economy continues to endure tough recessionary conditions.
Japan's GDP grew at a 4.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year; this was an extremely good performance for a country that has deflation and is considered too dependent on exports and lacking in domestic demand.
Ukraine's prime minister is refusing to acknowledge that her narrow defeat in the 7 February presidential election remains a defeat and has vowed to contest the result through the courts system; meaning the country's ongoing political instability is set to continue for the foreseeable future.
Eurozone GDP edged up just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to a preliminary estimate from Eurostat; although it marked a second successive quarter of expansion, this was disappointingly down from growth of 0.4% q/q in the third quarter�evidently the Eurozone is finding it hard to develop a sustainable recovery amid still very challenging conditions.
Thirty-one years ago an amalgam of political forces removed Iran�s Shah from power; today the Islamic Revolution is celebrating three decades in charge and faces the most resilient opposition movement it has encountered to date.
10/02/2010 | En Profundidad
Yesterday, Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou unveiled the government's plans to freeze public sector wages, raise taxes, and increase the retirement age in order to reduce the fiscal deficit; the proposals have irked unions, which have today staged a nationwide strike.
Greece's high budget deficit and debt levels have fuelled concerns about the country's creditworthiness; these concerns have spread to other countries�notably Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy�and have even led to some speculation that one or more country could end up leaving the Eurozone.
The exit polls for the second round of Ukraine's presidential election have given opposition candidate Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions a 5% lead; the narrow gap between the two run-off candidates is likely to prompt the other candidate, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, to dispute the outcome of the election to the detriment of the country's economic and political stability.
On Sunday Ukrainians vote in a second round of a protracted presidential election which will mark the end of the Orange Revolution but is unlikely to end the domestic political instability as both candidates have already declared their intention to dispute the poll results, which are likely to be very close.
The main U.K. opposition party has attempted to regain public confidence by outlining its vision for economic recovery, but the lack of detail on the policy initiatives has left many wondering what it all means.
In 2009, the Uzbek GDP reportedly grew 8.1% in spite of the global economic malaise, based largely on surging consumer activity and strong industrial expansion.
As expected, the European Commission has backed Greece's Stability and Growth Programme, although it has also issued a series of recommendations that need to be met.
Russia's statistical agency published an initial estimate of developments in GDP in 2009; the 7.9% year-on-year downturn was led by a collapse in capital formation and a painful slide in household consumption.
There has been a new spike in Sino-American tensions, with China announcing retaliatory measures in response to controversial U.S.-Taiwan arms sales.
Attention will be firmly focused on the Bank of England's February policy meeting amid considerable uncertainty as to whether or not the quantitative easing program will be extended. Meanwhile, forthcoming data and surveys will give an early indication as to whether recovery is gaining momentum, or even continuing.
31/01/2010 | En Parrilla
The crucial 70-nation Afghanistan conference held in London yesterday has, as expected, facilitated agreement on how to move forward in Afghanistan.
Seeking to regain the initiative after several heavy political setbacks, U.S. president Barack Obama yesterday proposed significant new curbs on the activities of banks to prevent future financial crises.
The Chinese economy rode out of the most severe downturn in more than a decade with 8.7% year-on-year GDP growth in 2009, on the back of aggressive fiscal stimuli and an ultra-easy monetary policy.
Little more than a year after their historic victories, the Democrats are finding the political pendulum is swinging back against them; the surprise victory of Republican Scott Brown in the race for a vacant Senate seat means the Democrats no longer have enough votes in that chamber to go it alone on priorities such as healthcare reform.
Delays in distributing aid and providing security fuelled looting and violence in earthquake-shattered Haiti; the United States and other governments are now mobilising resources on a massive scale, but their co-ordination and longer-term plans are under scrutiny.
Annual consumer price inflation surged to 2.9% in December from 1.9% in November and a five-year low of 1.1% in September, primarily due to unfavourable base effects.
In light of the latest developments in quake-stricken Haiti, IHS Global Insight is downgrading the country's Security Risk Rating from 4.00 to 4.25.
The Federal High Court has ruled that Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan is to assume executive powers during President Umaru Yar'Adua's health-related absence from Nigeria, but there will be no formal transfer of power.
Thousands are feared dead after yesterday�s earthquake in Haiti, the strongest to hit the country in 200 years.
Personal and financial scandal has prompted Northern Irish first minister Peter Robinson to take a six-week sabbatical, which is likely to further delay the devolution of policing and justice powers.
Argentina is edging towards a major conflict of powers, torpedoing recent efforts to bolster confidence in economic policy making and underlying institutions.
U.S. president Barack Obama has made no bones about the intelligence system gaps exposed by the failed airliner bombing on 25 December, and yesterday he described a wide-ranging drive to address these.
Iceland's president has taken action to facilitate a national referendum on the controversial compensation deal agreed with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, allowing Icelanders to exercise their democratic right to decide national economic policy; however, the action could have substantial repercussions for the rehabilitation of the island's decimated financial sector, and in the wider international community.
Argentina is again sending out the wrong signals as a row over the use of central bank reserves to serve debt in 2010 has pitted the government against the monetary authorities.
Following a rather turbulent leadership by the Czech Republic, Sweden's six months at the helm of the European Union were marked by coolness and efficiency, despite institutional innovation and turmoil.
The attempted bombing of a flight bound for Detroit in the United States on 25 December has dominated global headlines and prompted world leaders to scrutinise unstable Yemen and the growing menace posed by al-Qaida elements based there.
Uzbekistan�s president Islam Karimov has orchestrated the third parliamentary election since independence from the USSR in 1991, allowing only four pro-presidential parties to compete, while banning the opposition.
A free-trade agreement between China and 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will come into force on 1 January 2010, liberalising trade and investment in an economic zone covering 1.9 billion people.
A Nigerian national has been charged with attempting to blow up a U.S. airplane on Christmas Day, with al-Qaida claiming responsibility for the failed attack.
On 22 December the Romanian parliament gave a vote of confidence to a new 15-member cabinet led by Prime Minister Emil Boc, raising hopes that the paralysing three-month political stalemate is finally over.
The UN Security Council is expected to impose selected sanctions against Eritrea later today for its alleged backing of anti-government insurgents in Somalia and its alleged refusal to co-operate with the world body over its minor border dispute with neighbouring Djibouti.
Denmark's economy remains very fragile, despite a quarterly expansion of overall GDP in the third quarter of 2009.
Afghan president Hamid Karzai on Saturday (19 December) presented the cabinet line-up for 23 out of a total of 25 portfolios to parliament, sparking cautious optimism on the part of the international community, and a one-notch upgrade of IHS Global Insight's political risk rating for the country.
Irish real GDP rose moderately between the second and third quarters of 2009, but was still 7.4% lower than a year ago.
Pakistan's Supreme Court has declared as unconstitutional an amnesty that protected leading politicians including the president from graft charges, probably resulting in political turmoil although the effects on the country's fight against extremism are overstated.
16/12/2009 | Transparencia
The congressional commission set up in the Senate to investigate the activities of the state oil company, Petrobras, has produced its final report absolving Petrobras and the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) of the allegations made against them.
Greek prime minister George Papandreou yesterday announced a number of new measures to address the country's fiscal problems, but they may not be enough to calm the markets, given the lack of detail.
Last Friday (11 December) the Turkish Constitutional Court opted for the worst option�political repression�to resolve the government's long-standing conflict with its 12-million-strong Kurdish minority; the move instantly erupted into violent Kurdish demonstrations across Turkey, tarnishing the country's international image and its attempts to join the European Union.
The Chinese economy staged another major upturn in November, as industrial output growth accelerated to a record high in more than two years, with a sharp upswing in exports and prices.
Spain has established ambitious goals for its forthcoming presidency of the European Union (EU), but the most striking feature of its six-month tenure is likely to be its relationship with the newly established EU president and high representative for foreign affairs and security.
10/12/2009 | Medio Ambiente
The Summit in Copenhagen has been marked by the leaking of a controversial agreement drafted by the host country, Denmark, and some other leading developing states that has triggered concerns among poorer nations that the rich are aiming to impose their terms on the poor, in breach of the spirit of the Summit.
Iraq's divided parliament yesterday voted through a third version of a long-stalled election law; although the compromise breaks a dangerous impasse, the polls will be postponed from their original 16 January date.
China's top leadership reaffirmed at the annual Central Economic Work Conference today that the Chinese government will stick to a proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy into next year, and will push for continued "transformation" of the country's economic growth model towards one driven by domestic consumption.
In line with the Supreme Court's position, Honduras's Congress has effectively legitimised the June coup and prevented ousted president Manuel Zelaya's return to office; despite the strong support he continues to receive from other Latin American governments, it seems exile is his best option now.
At least 19 people, including four cabinet ministers, were killed in this latest deadly suicide bombing in the Somali capital yesterday�an attack almost certainly carried out by anti-government insurgents.
U.S. president Barack Obama finally unveiled his new Afghanistan strategy yesterday, the key elements of which are a 30,000-strong increase in troop numbers and an exit strategy of sorts.
Markets in Europe and North America avoided a panic sell-off on 27 November over Dubai's financial problems, but anxiety continues amid speculation over tensions behind Abu Dhabi's announcement that it will support banks.
India's economy has rebounded strongly during the second quarter of the current fiscal year, highlighting broad upside risks in its outlook.
News that giant conglomerate Dubai World had been forced to freeze debt repayments has knocked investor confidence at a critical time, dragging equities in Asia and Europe sharply lower.
U.S. president Barack Obama and Chinese premier Wen Jiabao have confirmed that they will attend next month�s climate change conference in Copenhagen (Denmark), and both have offered their most explicit emissions targets yet.
According to figures released by Statistics South Africa the South African economy showed weak growth in the third quarter of 2009, thus following most developed economies by exiting the recession officially.
Detailed German GDP data underline the importance of rebounding inventories to the overall growth performance during the third quarter.
Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh arrived for his first high-profile visit to the United States yesterday, which is set to further improve bilateral relations between the two countries, particularly in the areas of anti-terrorism as well as civilian nuclear and defence co-operation.
European Union (EU) leaders have chosen low-profile candidates for the roles of EU president and foreign affairs minister, but neither should be underestimated.
World leaders gathered in Singapore for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) vowed to pursue a new economic growth strategy and to work towards "an ambitious outcome" at next month's climate change talks in Copenhagen (Denmark), but the shortage of specifics is ominous.
After five quarters, the Eurozone has moved out of recession with an overall GDP expansion of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2009.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri has broken a dangerous impasse in the political process by getting rival factions to finally form a government; however, serious challenges loom.
The Chinese economy has made a strong start to the fourth quarter, as industrial output growth accelerated to 16.1% year-on-year in October, a return to pre-crisis levels.
A compromise reached over Iraq�s long-stalled election law yesterday will ensure that the pivotal general election is held more or less on time and that the U.S. troop-withdrawal schedule remains unaffected for now.
The controversial report was overwhelmingly passed by the UN General Assembly, although it remains non-binding; meanwhile, the fragile stability of the Palestinian Authority has been rocked by the decision of President Mahmoud Abbas not to seek re-election.
As predicted, Romania's majority opposition parliament yesterday rejected Prime Minister-designate Lucian Croitoru's proposed cabinet, leaving the country in a whirlpool of political and economic instability.
The killing of two Venezuelan national guardsmen has prompted the country to close pivotal transit points along the border with its neighbour, Colombia.
The EU Reform Treaty is set to enter into force soon, following the overdue ratification of the text by Eurosceptic Czech President Vaclav Klaus yesterday.
Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) declared Hamid Karzai the winner of the Afghan presidential election today, calling off the run-off polls scheduled for 7 November, essentially now shifting the focus onto the overwhelming challenges ahead.
Iran sent out mixed signals yesterday as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took a relatively soft approach to the country�s co-operation over its nuclear programme; however, the Islamic Republic's response to an earlier negotiated nuclear deal appears to have fallen well below hopes.
The new centre-right coalition government has the potential to upset powerful stakeholders and must tread even more carefully than its predecessor if it wants to stay the course.
The government's net loan debt as a percentage of GDP is estimated to increase from 22.6% in fiscal 2008/09 to 41.1% in 2012/13; nevertheless, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan reassured investors the government is committed to prudent monetary and fiscal policy in his first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 27 October 2009.
While the Asia Pacific Summit negotiations�centring on regional trade and global economic issues�resulted in a number of important achievements, problems continue to hinder progress in establishing a vast region-wide economic block.
A series of scandals over the safety of consumer goods and foods has galvanised the U.S. administration into a major rethink of regulatory structures and the oversight of imports from the likes of China.
The second round of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers began yesterday amid Iranian allegations that foreign powers, including the United States and Pakistan, had a hand in the deadly bombings which killed over 40 people, including members of the Revolutionary Guard, in Sistan-Baluchestan over the weekend.
After the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) submitted its report on fraud rulings yesterday, ordering the Independent Election Commission (IEC) to invalidate a "certain percentage" of votes, the IEC today announced that incumbent President Karzai just missed the 50 per cent plus one vote threshold, saying that a second round of elections is to be held on 7 November.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's announcement on 16 October that his party is suspending contact with President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF represents the most serious challenge to the power-sharing government yet.
There are clear winners from the latest enlargement report of the EC but the majority of South-East European states face an arduous path to membership, with the EC struggling to meet the demands of aspiring nations due to institutional constraints.
Russia and China have signed record-breaking trade deals that signal much closer bilateral economic co-operation over the coming decade.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday presented plans for a "fire sale" of non-financial assets, but even if the proceeds of this reach the �16 billion hoped for, it is small change in the context of the country's burgeoning deficit.
The internationally acclaimed Armenian-Turkish protocols may look good on paper but are marred with controversy from the start.
The new Greek government appears to be stable, which is vital if it is to survive the impending socio-economic challenges.
Yesterday�s White House statement that the Taliban pose a lesser threat to the United States than al-Qaida sparked speculation over a possible strategy change with regard to Afghanistan, including a more political role for the Taliban, as the Obama administration continues its strategic review.
Australia emerged as the trend-setter among the G20 yesterday with its decision to increase the official cash rate from 3% to 3.25%.
At the end of a three-day visit from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, North Korea has said it is ready to return to six-party talks, but has also stated that this would be conditional upon the successful holding of direct bilateral talks with the United States.
Industrial production jumped 1.2% in August with respect to July, confirming that the Brazilian economy is in solid recovery; this was further boosted by major news from Copenhagen (Denmark) that Rio de Janeiro is to be awarded the 2016 Summer Olympic Games.
After a week of heightened tensions and dampened expectations, yesterday Iran agreed in principle with the so-called P5+1 group of nations to a number of promising concessions; this has defused an escalating row over its nuclear programme at a time when domestic shortages risk wrecking havoc with its economy.
Tropical Storm Ketsana continues to wreak havoc across South-East Asia, causing death and destruction in Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos, while relief efforts in the Philippines are hampered by continued flooding and damage to infrastructure.
In line with its strategy to focus on core operations, TDC has again found a buyer for its international holding in Mid Europa Partners.
China has showcased its military strength during National Day celebrations, illustrating its illustrious history as well as its rise to an economic, political, and military power.
Wrapping up an extraordinary week of international diplomacy, the G20 leading economies pledged regulatory reforms and policy commitments in a bid to avoid a repeat of the past year's crisis, but it remains to be seen how far the sweeping statements are translated into action.
UNCTAD's latest World Investment Report shows that FDI flows between developed economies slumped last year as the economic crisis took hold, but flows were up in other parts of the world where they are most needed. 2009 is proving weaker all round.
A key meeting in China sparks questions over the future of China�s leadership transition.
The United States has scaled back plans to build a missile defence system, a major shift in foreign and security policy that has wide ramifications for relations with Central Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.
A major political shift has taken place in Japanese politics as the Liberal Democratic Party steps down from government for only the second time in more than fifty years.
Given the hundreds of serious complaints of irregularities that have been filed with the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a recount of around 10% of votes was ordered that could force incumbent president Hamid Karzai into run-off elections with his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah.
Iran yesterday agreed to engage in the first top-level meeting with the so-called P5+1 group of nations in over a year, paving the way for a possible�albeit unlikely�break in the never-ending stalemate over Iran�s nuclear programme.
Brazilian GDP expanded 1.9% in the second quarter of 2009 with respect to the first, marking the end of the recession that began in the last quarter of 2008.
Lebanese PM-designate Saad Hariri abandoned efforts to form a new cabinet yesterday, further entrenching Lebanon�s chronic political stalemate.
A flurry of data released today shows that there was a marked acceleration in Chinese economic growth during August after almost flat growth the previous month.
President Barack Obama has endured a rough ride of late as Republicans have rounded on his healthcare reforms; yesterday's address to a joint session of Congress saw him bid to regain the initiative with his trademark rhetoric, clarifying his preferences, showing some willingness to compromise, and dismissing alarmist accusations.
Afghan election officials have said that President Hamid Karzai has avoided a run-off against his nearest opponent by winning 54.1% of the vote, but myriad electoral fraud accusations are proving impossible to ignore for the United States and other key international backers.
Two and a half months after being chosen as prime minister, Saad Hariri yesterday presented President Michel Suleiman with a cabinet line-up that was immediately criticised by the opposition.
Finance ministers emerged from the latest G20 meeting upbeat over global economic recovery, and about the potential for a broad agreement on banking sector reform; however, behind the scenes, it is clear vigorous debates continue.
The long-delayed announcement of the winner of Gabon�s presidential election has been accompanied by civil unrest on the streets of Libreville and Port-Gentil as oppositionists contest the fact that Ali Ben Bongo, son of the late president, is the country's new leader.
Emboldened by the approval of 18 out of 21 of his cabinet nominees, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to have again emerged defiant in the face of international pressure over the country�s nuclear programme.
An early election may see the government depart while socio-economic woes remain.
Eurostat confirmed that Eurozone GDP contracted by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the second quarter of 2009 after drops of 2.5% q/q in the first quarter and 1.8% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The Indian economy gained traction in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, accentuating building upside risks in its outlook, but a widening drought could threaten the farm sector.
Voters have ushered in a new era of Japanese politics, as the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party was ousted from government by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.
Japan is bracing itself for major political change on the eve of a historic election to the Lower House of Parliament.
Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) has published preliminary results of the country's presidential and provincial council elections, indicating a head-to-head race between incumbent Hamid Karzai and former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, but these tallies should be treated with caution.
One of Europe's last bastions of banking secrecy is falling after the ruling parties in Austria obtained the backing of the opposition for a change to the rules.
Iraq�s main Shi�a political parties yesterday unveiled a new and revamped alliance ahead of the country�s pivotal January 2010 national elections; absent from the new alliance is Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
Ties between the Hungarian and Slovak governments have taken a turn for the worse following the entry refusal for Hungarian President Laszlo Solyom.
Afghanistan's second ever presidential and provincial council elections went ahead despite widespread violence and low voter turnout, suggesting that legitimacy will play a major issue in the country's post-election landscape.
After nearly missing the midnight deadline for submitting his nominees for Iran�s new government to parliament, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has put forward a list that largely consists of loyalists with a security background.
Afghans are set to head to the polls for the country's second-ever presidential and provincial council elections tomorrow, amidst a deteriorating security situation that has sparked fears over the perceived legitimacy of the results.
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has begun his first visit to the United States in five years for talks which are expected to focus on advancing Middle East peace but circumvent issues relating to the country�s negligible political reform efforts.
Hong Kong's economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of 2009, ending four consecutive quarters of contraction, led by a revival in regional trade and improving consumer confidence.
Eurozone GDP contracted at a sharply reduced rate of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, according to a "flash" estimate from Eurostat.
"Flash" data show that German GDP expanded in the second quarter, the first increase since the first quarter of 2008.
The Statistical Service released a flash estimate of the headline development in Russian GDP in the second quarter; the 10.9% y/y decline posted was sharper than most analysts had expected and called into question claims that the economic downturn had bottomed out by May.
U.S. President Barack Obama has rounded off the latest in a whirlwind of international summits; this time it was the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) bloc and the many issues on the table included swine flu, the economy, Honduras, trade disputes, and drugs-related violence.
Some SWFs are stirring again and none are more ambitious or armed with such potential financial muscle as China's CIC.
U.S. and Pakistani officials have intercepted communications that suggest that key Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud may have been killed in a U.S. drone attack on Pakistani territory earlier this week.
Efforts to overhaul the bloated, inefficient, and patchy U.S. healthcare system have reached a critical juncture as Democrats in Congress try to strike an intricate compromise in the face of an increasingly effective onslaught from Republicans as well as growing public unease.
Nearly two months after his re-election resulted in mass protests and the deepest political crisis experienced by the Islamic Republic, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn in today before parliament.
NATO's new secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, aims to increase the organisation's influence while keeping all stakeholders on board; key immediate challenges include bolstering the Afghan mission and improving relations with Russia.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has endorsed the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, two days before the incumbent is due to renew his presidential oath before parliament.
An apparent escalation of violence by ETA in the run-up to its 50th anniversary seems to be an attempt by the terrorist group to flex its muscles following a series of arrests and waning support in the Basque country, but the attacks carry a faint aroma of desperation.
Insecurity in parts of northern Nigeria is at a high as four states impose dusk-to-dawn curfews in the aftermath of scores of deaths linked to Islamist fundamentalism.
Weakened after a recent period of political unrest and mounting criticism, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was issued a stark warning by conservatives today.
South Korean GDP grew at a nearly 10% pace in April-June, a sharp rebound from the previous two quarters.
Preliminary data show that real GDP contracted at a rate of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, a substantially worse performance than had been expected.
Deeper integration among Maghreb nations (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia) and a fully-fledged European Union (EU)/United States/Maghreb free-trade agreement (FTA) could cushion these economies from external shocks, such as the ongoing global financial crisis.
Hopes for a political settlement of the Honduran crisis are dwindling, as the last mediation offer from Costa Rican president Oscar Arias appears to be headed for failure.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Sri Lankan government today agreed terms on a US$2.5-billion loan agreement to bolster external liquidity, but improvement in the sovereign risk rating will remain dependent on actual implementation.
Seasonally adjusted data show that industrial production fell 2.2% in May month-on-month; the Central Bank has moved to cut rates again.
Jakarta has been rocked by twin bombings at two luxury hotels in the business district, undermining the significant progress Indonesia has made in improving its security environment.
Chinese growth rebounded in the second quarter of 2009 as momentum was boosted by massive macroeconomic stimulus and a surge in investment, but the short-term growth spurt may be serving only to exacerbate long-term risks.
Planning Minister Trevor Manuel yesterday unveiled the medium-term strategic framework (MTSF) that will guide the government's programme of action over the next five years.
The fourth quarter of 2008 saw annual GDP decline 7.5%, leaving growth for 2008 as a whole at -2.3%, the worst performance in 30 years.
Latvia's new government may be of short tenure, but it is not short of challenges between now and the next scheduled election in 2010.
The government has employed a range of tactics in its bid to curtail this week's "Long March", which has been organised by the legal community as part of moves to press for the reinstatement of a number of judges.
Russia is attempting to internationalise the conflict, hoping that bringing Europe further into the equation will help reach a sustainable solution; but no way forward is yet in sight.
Healthcare and staples are the strongest stock market sectors for North America and Europe in 2009; consumer discretionary and financials are the weakest.
Thursday sees the Bank of England announcing its interest rate decision for January, while the ECB will deliver its decision on 15 January. Both central banks are under intense pressure to deliver major cuts, but the Bank of England seems more willing to oblige than the ECB.
Bringing together 33 leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean, the two day "Mega-Summit" in Brazil delivered new regional integration projects and served as a reminder as to why integration has proved so challenging in Latin America.
The falling hryvnia threatens the solvency of banks, companies, and households; if the decline however is caused mainly by speculation, a rebound of the hryvnia could be observed soon.
Real GDP contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, having only stagnated in the second quarter
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) mounted an aggressive assault on interest rates today, as concerns over the economic outlook intensify.
The attack against India�s financial hub by hitherto unknown radical group the Deccan Mujahedeen has raised concerns over the growing risk of home-grown terrorism, prompting IHS Global Insight to downgrade the country�s Security Risk Rating.
The pace of growth of GDP moderated somewhat in the second quarter of 2008 relative to a quarter earlier as fixed capital investment decelerated and real net exports of goods and services dwindled further, but the result for the first half of the year was still slightly ahead of the same period a year earlier thanks to a vibrant first quarter.
All attention next week will be focused on Thursday's interest rate decision from the Bank of England, amid heightened expectations that the deteriorating economic and financial environment will compel the bank of cut interest rates, despite still rising inflation.
South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) party has named its deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe as the country's caretaker president this morning, succeeding the outgoing head of state Thabo Mbeki after his forced resignation from office last night.
In a rare move, two of Germany's health insurance funds are to merge ahead of a reform that will see smaller insurers struggling to stay afloat.
The Thai parliament today elected Somchai Wongsawat, brother-in-law of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as the country�s new prime minister, prompting fears of continued political instability.
Robert Mugabe is now constitutionally obliged to treat a rival narrative on national policy as legitimate; however, this agreement falls far short of the division of executive authority some will have hoped for.
The European Union has achieved a major success towards resolving the stalemate between the Kremlin and the Georgian government; yet�as previously�the application of the deal depends on a number of uncertainties.
Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto and co-chair of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won Pakistan�s presidential election on Saturday.
Argentina's chief issues remain poverty and unemployment. The country has registered strong GDP growth since 2003, with its longevity confounding most expectations. However, various elements combine to cast doubt on the sustainability of this rebound.
President Dmitry Medvedev has sought to reassure investors after the Russian stock market plunged following Premier Vladimir Putin�s assault on coal producer Mechel; Medvedev accompanied his signing of the government�s anti-corruption strategy with sharp criticism of the security services, which many have seen as indirect criticism of Putin.
Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda has named a new cabinet in a bid to address the deepening political crisis that his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing.
Nuclear negotiations held yesterday between the European Union representative and Iran�with more expected this week�have been deemed inconclusive by the United States, raising the threat of further United Nations sanctions; meanwhile Iran is preparing new sweetened investment terms to try and attract interest to its hydrocarbon sector.
From a position of weakness the Lebanese government last week dismantled Hizbollah�s telecommunications network and sacked a pro-Hizbollah army chief charged with airport security, setting the stage for a bloody showdown which has so far left over 50 people dead.
Latest indicators suggest that the U.K. economic downturn may be deepening and widening. At the same time though, inflation pressures remain elevated.
New Prime Minister Brian Cowen faces the tricky task of rallying support for his fiscal and foreign affairs policies amid an economic downturn and the looming referendum on the EU Reform Treaty.
Serbia is heading to the polls on 11 May in a general election largely billed as a referendum on the country's European integration.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee seems likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its monthly meeting on Thursday, but weak data could yet trigger a back-to-back 25-basis-point cut to 4.75%.
Partial agreements on wheat and meat exports were inked yesterday by the government and the agricultural sector, going some way towards easing tension between the two embattled parties; it remains to be seen whether these will suffice to secure a postponement of tomorrow's deadline for the resumption of protests.
Next week is expected to see further evidence that housing market activity is continuing to be pressurized heavily by the damaging combination of stretched buyer affordability and very tight lending conditions.
The regional Venezuela-led group the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) has fulfilled expectations by expressing its solidarity with Bolivia�s President Evo Morales at an extraordinary summit, the chief outcome of which was the signing of an accord on food security.
The momentum of Chinese growth proved resilient to a series of setbacks in the first quarter, but the economy must negotiate an increasingly complex set of contradictory pressures in 2008.
The U.S. economy probably slipped into recession during the first quarter. If it has, December 2007 will represent the expansion's peak. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee will not make an official ruling for several months.
The unexpected gains made by the Maoists in Nepal�s landmark election have come as a shock to established parties, prompting a reconfiguration of the political landscape.
Paraguayan voters opted for change yesterday, electing �bishop of the poor� Fernando Lugo as president and ending the 61-year reign of the conservative Colorado Party (PC).
The Bank of England yesterday unveiled a scheme designed to boost liquidity within the United Kingdom's financial markets and ease the extended deadlock in the credit markets.
As anticipated, New York Senator Hillary Clinton has won in the key populous state of Pennsylvania, but with an insufficient margin to prove that she has turned the tables on the favourite, Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
The NATO summit's results showed strength on military co-operation and weakness on policy and ideology issues.
President Cristina Fern�ndez de Kirchner confirmed yesterday her refusal to roll back the next export-tax regime on grain, and her criticisms of the ongoing strike have prompted a radicalisation of the movement.
Industrial output growth figures for February have revealed the true depth and range of impacts felt by regional economies that were in the path of the blizzard that swept through central and southern China earlier this year.
The Kenyan government has finally set the date for the privatisation of state-owned mobile telephone company Safaricom at a time when both the fiscal and economic implications of the deal have highly significant consequences.
Are state governments able to mitigate the effect of recession on their finances? According to Global Insight's recent forecast, a recession seems probable for most state economies in 2008. Since a recession means a slower economic growth, reduced personal income, and declines in jobs, it seems reasonable that state governments would take measures to try to mitigate the effect of recession on their fiscal performance.
Unprecedented gains made by Malaysia�s unified opposition has changed the country�s political landscape and mounted a major challenge to the continued rule of Prime Minister Mohammad Ahmad Badawi.
A third set of sanctions against Iran has been passed by the United Nations Security Council�though not, this time, unanimously�hitting the country's finance industry particularly hard.
Yesterday's key contests in Ohio and Texas were viewed as make-or-break for Senator Hillary Clinton's hopes, but in the event she triumphed and the race looks set to drag on for a few months yet.
The outgoing president inspired confidence in the Russian populace at his final press conference, while the incoming president announced a liberal economic agenda.
Incumbent Boris Tadic has beaten nationalist Tomislav Nikolic in the second round of presidential voting; a win that has been welcomed by the EU as it is hoped that Tadic will keep the small but pivotal Balkan state on the path towards accession despite a looming declaration of independence in Kosovo.
An apparent acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 could explain the very impressive 8.1% growth for the full year reported by Russia's Federal State Statistical Service in a preliminary estimate of developments for the full year, although quarterly results through September could well be revised upward in March 2008.
The Chinese economy expanded at its fastest rate since 1996 in 2007, but risks loom large in 2008.
Well into the third week of continuous power-cuts and load-shedding, Eskom, South Africa�s state electricity supplier, has requested that its key customers reduce consumption to �survival levels� for the next four weeks as part of its demand-management programme.
After a decade of liberal rule, South Korea has been placed firmly on a conservative path with the victory of Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party (GNP) in yesterday's presidential elections.
On December 19, 2007, President Bush signed into law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). The Bill will provide support for current biofuel resources (consistent with Global Insight's recent U.S. Agriculture long-term report), but adds mandates for cellulosic and other non-traditional feed stocks.
Ireland's 2008 budget is considerably more stringent than its recent predecessors, reflecting the less favourable economic environment, and leaves little room for the leading Fianna F�il party to meet the pledges it made in its election manifesto earlier this year.
Presidential frontrunner Lee Myung-bak of the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) was today cleared of allegations in a major fraud case, thereby significantly boosting his position in the upcoming elections.
The Sri Lankan air force today killed S. P. Thamilselvan, the political leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrilla group, amid intensifying hostilities in the ongoing civil war.
Senator and First Lady Cristina Fern�ndez de Kirchner became Argentina's first elected female president yesterday, as she secured widespread support and avoided a second-round run-off.
The Chinese economy barrelled to growth of 11.5% in the third quarter of the year, but the risks associated with the increasingly unbalanced nature of growth have prompted Global Insight to downgrade its economic risk rating from 2.50 to 2.75.
The United States yesterday unveiled unilateral sanctions against the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three state-owned banks, in a move that will greatly increase the risk of doing business with Iran.
The IMF's latest review of Nigeria's Policy Support Instrument shows that the country has significantly over-performed over the last three years (2005, 2006, and 2007) compared with projected targets, but fiscal risks do exist in the short term.
In a serious blow to the central administration, the main southern Sudanese faction, the SPLM, has announced that it has now suspended all participation in the central government, accusing the president�s northern-dominated party of failing to abide by a peace agreement signed in 2005. The announcement also follows reports of a marked escalation of violence in the troubled Darfur region.
North Korea today agreed to sign a formal peace treaty with South Korea at a historic summit, at which its agreement to the disablement of its nuclear programme by year-end was also announced.
The French government presented its state budget for 2008 yesterday just days after Prime Minister Fran�ois Fillon claimed he was the leader of a bankrupt country.
President Putin enjoys employing his drama skills; after a two-week long wait, he has left the cabinet unchanged.
The UN Security Council has expressed its support for the idea of deploying a multi-dimensional international presence in the east of Chad and the north-east of the Central African Republic (CAR) to provide the necessary protection to the thousands of refugees, internally displaced persons and civilians in this fragile zone.
The ruling Justice and Development has elected Abdullah Gul as the eleventh president of Turkey, amid warnings from the military over the secular order.
Natural resources will outweigh electoral standards in defining the West's approach to Kazakhstan, but investors should beware of the strengthened bureaucracy.
Japan�s beleaguered prime minister today appointed a new cabinet with key posts filled by veterans from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has conceded that elections are the only solution to the current government crisis, and he plans to head a minority administration in the interim.
Tense by-elections to replace two slain Lebanese MPs have underlined the divisions among Lebanon�s fractured Christian community, acting as a prelude to that country�s presidential elections, which are slated for September.
The Inter-Korean Summit will follow the first of its kind held in 2000 and is a significant engagement effort at a time when North Korea is moving ahead on delivering its nuclear disarmament pledges.
The leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has agreed to keep Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at its helm despite a crushing defeat in the upper house polls, but questions remain as to whether the Party will continue to retain someone who is considered an electoral liability as head in the run-up to the next elections in 2009/10.
Parliament opened yesterday for the last session before the March 2008 elections to debate the merging of parliamentary and presidential elections, the creation of a new national incomes and pricing commission and indigenisation and nationalisation laws.
Four additional members of Colombia�s Congress are under investigation for paramilitary links while leaders of the far-right umbrella United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC) have stopped co-operating with judicial authorities in protest at a Supreme Court ruling.
President N�stor Kirchner will not bid for a second consecutive term, leaving his almost equally popular wife Senator Cristina Fern�ndez seeking to succeed him to Argentina's top post.
Leaders from the 27 member states of the European Union concluded a challenging two-day summit with a tentative agreement on a new reform treaty in a bid to end the bloc�s institutional impasse.
Venezuela has signed new contract agreements with seven companies but some international investors have rejected the move to alter terms for their continued participation in the oil sector.
With U.S. manufacturing activity showing signs of improvement and end-users rebuilding depleted inventories, petrochemical volume rebounded in the first quarter of this year, following lackluster performances in 2005 and 2006. We see market conditions deteriorating in 2009-11.
Keen to demonstrate that he is serious about "change", new Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced a wholesale overhaul of his cabinet yesterday, handing some major promotions to "up-and-coming stars".
The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Richard Boucher, yesterday met with senior officials, election officials and opposition members as part of a visit to Pakistan.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed the national unity government led by Hamas, as the Islamist group assumed control of the Gaza Strip, routing Fatah loyalists and declaring a de facto Islamic state on Israel�s doorstep.
Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has assumed leadership of the Labour Party, sealing the fate of Defence Minister Amir Peretz, who has been dogged by the political fallout over Israel�s mishandling of the July 2006 conflict with the Lebanese group, Hizbollah.
China is on pace to outrank the United States in manufacturing output. The actual timing of this change will depend on how output is measured.
With ethanol production being ramped up, China and India are looking beyond their main input crops to meet this demand without sacrificing food security.
President N�stor Kirchner received a boost yesterday in the Buenos Aires mayoral election as his Education Minister Daniel Filmus squeezed into the run-off to compete against centre-right Mauricio Macri, who emerged the clear victor of the first round with some 45% of the vote.
U.S. investors in Ecuador and Bolivia are not the only ones that need to worry after the Andean governments announced moves to renegotiate all existing bilateral investment treaties (BITs).
The Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh will today host a major international conference focused on reconstructing and securing Iraq four years after the U.S.-led invasion of the country.
The crisis over presidential elections in Turkey looks to be overcome by early parliamentary ballots following the constitutional court�s annulment of the first-round vote last week.
A year-long trial reached its conclusion yesterday with the conviction of five Britons who plotted large-scale terrorist attacks in London, and who had connections with the 7 July 2005 attackers.
Member states of the leftist Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) anti-imperialist bloc�Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela�strengthened ties at a summit this weekend, inking a new battery of energy, social and institutional arrangements.
State authorities have shelved the launch of China's first official climate change policy this week, after consultations across the country's sprawling public sector failed to yield agreement over its final content.
Nicolas Sarkozy of the centre-right and the Socialist Party�s S�gol�ne Royal will contest the second-round run-off for the presidency. The extremely high turnout in the first round demonstrated the huge amount of interest in the election.
The U.S. administration is under intense pressure over Iraq after Democrats in Congress agreed on demands for an early pull-out, as news broke of one of the most deadly single attacks yet on U.S. forces.
The Chinese economy expanded at a blistering rate of 11.1% in the first quarter of this year, its momentum undimmed by recent aggressive tightening of monetary policy.
Simultaneous suicide bomb attacks yesterday targeted the Algerian capital, killing at least 23 people and reviving fears of a return to the spectre of Islamic terrorism that ravaged the country during the 1990s.
The prospect of a further rise in U.K. interest rates in the near term finally sent the pound through the US$2.00 barrier yesterday for the first time since September 1992, and it has since climbed to its highest level since June 1981. There will be both winners and losers as a result of this development.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last week became the first of his standing in the Chinese political leadership to visit Japan since 2000, testifying to the d�tente under way between the troubled neighbours.
Official campaigning for the eagerly anticipated 2007 presidential elections begins today. The first round, scheduled for 22 April, will see 12 candidates contest a closely fought race to make it through to the second-round run-off a fortnight later, if no single contender obtains more than half the votes cast.
With great theatricality, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad yesterday defused the crisis over 15 captured British sailors, but did the stand-off and denouement really serve Iran's interests?
Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip has been re-confirmed following victory in March elections.
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek�s administration has finally presented reforms, but their fate is uncertain in a hostile parliament in which the government lacks a majority.
The inherent duality of Ukrainian society has shown itself yet again as the country finds itself in the biggest power stand-off since the Orange Revolution of 2004.
The United Kingdom yesterday severed official bilateral business ties with Iran amid the ongoing standoff over the capture of 15 British naval personnel.
President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva appears to have almost completed his long-awaited cabinet reshuffle with the swearing in of five new ministers yesterday.
The likelihood of a federal carbon dioxide mitigation policy being implemented has increased recently, prompting a closer look at current emission levels at a regional level.
Arab heads of state are today expected to resuscitate King Abdullah�s Middle East peace initiative at the 19th annual Arab League summit in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
Uruguayan GDP swelled 6.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2006, bringing growth to 7.0% in 2006, up from 6.61% registered in 2005.
Cuba plans to export ethanol and intensify its oil exploration efforts.
Robust export growth at U.S. ports has been beneficial to their local economies, but their expansion hinges on a strong transportation infrastructure.
The United States today heeded North Korean calls for it to unfreeze US$24 million in disputed funds, thereby setting the stage for the nuclear disarmament process to proceed under the six-party framework, and leading Global Insight to upgrade North Korea's Security Risk Rating by 0.25 to 2.25.
It has been confirmed that 12 candidates have amassed a sufficient number of mayoral signatures to contest the first round of the presidential election in April, four fewer than in the 2002 poll.
News of January's plunge in U.S. durable goods orders fed market concerns yesterday, while the turbulent Chinese market registered a precipitous 9% fall, and though the latter has recovered some lost ground today, the sell-off elsewhere in Asia and in Europe has continued as investors wonder whether U.S. markets can lead a global bounce-back.
Ecuador's new Energy Minister reassures investors that the government is not planning to nationalise the oil sector, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday recognised heightened environmental concerns among voters, and shifted controversial Environment Minister Rona Ambrose in a reshuffle that sees the Conservatives gird themselves for a general election that could be triggered as early as March.
This week's key release will be December's retail sales report.
President Hugo Chavez has made the first rearrangements in the composition of his governmental team, all set to work on deepening the social and economic transformation of the country initiated when he first took office in 1999, by naming a new controversial vice-president and a new Interior and Justice minister.
The bloody life of the former Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, came to an ignominious end this weekend. His execution, which was punctuated by chants in support of the Shi�a cleric and leader of the Mahdi Army militia, Moqtada al-Sadr, will only inflame sectarian tensions in the country.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) have dominated Nigeria's oil industry this year by kidnapping workers, sabotaging pipelines, and forcing crude to be shut-in; the militant group looks set to play a crucial role in next year's presidential elections
The UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously approved sanctions against Iran on Saturday 23 December, following months of negotiations over a compromise resolution against the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme; the limited punitive measures are, however, expected to have only a marginal impact on the country's economy.
The Canadian economy performed very close to the Global Insight forecast in 2006, with higher-than-expected oil prices causing most of the variances from forecast.
Both houses of parliament have now approved the state budget for 2007; a largely pre-election document, it includes tax concessions and optimistic growth forecasts for the economy next year.
More uncertainty looms in Central Asia as its most closed country, Turkmenistan, sees the death of its leader.
The Swedish parliament yesterday approved a controversial reform package concerning the sacrosanct welfare system;, the reforms foresee cuts to rather generous unemployment benefits and constitute the first major test for the new centre-right government.
A look at consumer confidence by region indicates divergent views of the national economy.
In the worst case of factional fighting for more than a decade, the governing Hamas movement and the once-dominant Fatah party are on the brink of all-out war after Hamas leaders accused President Mahmoud Abbas of orchestrating a "coup" following his calls for early national elections.
U.S. President George W. Bush yesterday signed the controversial United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Co-operation Act, 2006, further deepening the strategic relationship that he has secured with India since 2004.
GDP growth has decelerated in the United States, but has�so far�remained strong in most other parts of the world and accelerated in some others, notably the Eurozone. Whether the rest of the world has become immune to U.S. cycles (even a mild one) is one of the larger uncertainties about the outlook for next year. Global Insight believes that even if the rest of the world follows the U.S. lead, the deceleration worldwide will be relatively mild. We expect global growth to decline from 3.9% this year to 3.3% in 2007.
High-level Sino-U.S. talks in Beijing concluded today without substantive progress on how to resolve the widening�and increasingly politicised�trade imbalance between the two countries.
The introduction of an oil exports tax, together with the quadruple hike in gas prices by Russia, could seriously undermine the Belarussian economy.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index of mortgage applications shot up 11.4% last week on a seasonally adjusted basis, and is now 16.5% above its year-earlier value. Both the purchase and refinance indexes rose in response to lower mortgage rates.
Healthcare, consumer staples, and select components of the financial sector show the strongest potential for total return.
The first estimate of Russian GDP growth by sector of origin in the third quarter indicates that the momentum of aggregate output was maintained from the second to the third quarter after the relatively slow start to the year; the 6.5% growth implied for the first three quarters has led to increases in projections for the full year.
The Iraq Study Group (ISG) yesterday published its long-awaited report, questioning the thrust of the administration's policies, and increasing the pressure on President George W. Bush to launch full regional dialogue and reduce U.S. combat troop presence.
Former separatist commander Irwandi Yusuf was elected to the governorship of Aceh yesterday, as the first-ever local election in the province marked the end of a three-decade separatist conflict
On the final day of Republican Congressional control a wide-ranging package of economic, taxation and regulatory measures was squeezed through, including the normalisation of trade relations with Vietnam�controversial for some given the two countries' history, but a move that allows firms to make the most of Vietnam's imminent WTO accession.
Economic indicators next week are not expected to provide much additional focus to the ambiguity in the current economic outlook. All told, the economic indicators are shaping up to be somewhat supportive of the fixed income markets, barring a surprise from the FOMC meeting on December 12.
The economy added an additional 132,000 jobs in November, and the estimates for September and October were revised up a net 42,000. The unemployment rate inched up 0.1 point, to 4.5%. Labor markets remain tight, and the economy is continuing to generate jobs despite the housing downturn.
The consumer price index for medical care has been climbing more than 4% annually since 2000, and is projected to maintain roughly 3.5% growth through 2016. The continuing escalation of the medical-care index at rates above the CPI for the overall economy suggests that medical expenditures will represent a growing percentage of overall U.S. GDP.
Healthy consumer spending and a sharp rise in inventories were the major growth drivers in Italy during the third quarter, offsetting a decline in both net exports and investment.
Million of voters are expected at polling stations on Sunday (3 December) to decide the outcome of a hard-fought electoral battle, where a revived opposition led by Manuel Rosales will desperately try to prevent the re-election of incumbent President Hugo Chavez.
Third-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.2%, from 1.6%�although growth probably slowed to below 2% in the fourth quarter. The revised report showed surging profits, plus a big downward revision to labor compensation. The latter means that household finances are worse than they had seemed�but also that labor costs are less threatening for inflation.
The U.K. economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter for a fourth successive quarter in the third quarter of 2006. This pushed the annual growth rate up to 2.7%, the strongest level for two years.
Detailed data shows that the German economic recovery became even more broad-based in the third quarter of 2006, with a drop in inventories the only restraining influence.
The assassination yesterday of Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel, the heir of a powerful Maronite political dynasty, has ratcheted up political tensions in Lebanon.
The Christian Democratic Appeal is the favourite to win tomorrow's general election, but with its poll lead narrowing in the final hours and a crowded field of parties, there are likely to be protracted coalition negotiations.
Eurozone GDP growth moderated to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2006, from 0.9% in the second quarter and 0.8% in the first.
The economy expanded at a faster-than-expected rate of 7.2% in the three months through September as accelerating domestic demand growth compensated for a slowdown in exports.
President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has signed a new constitution, which reduces his powers and ends mass protests.
Argentina and Venezuela are currently receiving bids for the bonds they are selling together in the Venezuelan domestic financial market.
Military commander Voreqe "Frank" Bainimarama today warned that Fiji was heading towards "bloodshed" as Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase again refused to step down.
Incumbent President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva secured a second term in a run-off vote held yesterday.
Since efforts to persuade many key polluting nations to sign up to the Kyoto Protocol failed, international momentum on climate change has flagged. A high-profile report commissioned by the U.K. Treasury has, however, refocused some attention on the issue, highlighting the economic consequences and arguing that "climate change is the greatest market failure the world has seen".
The World Bank president has attacked China over its foreign policy in Africa, deeming it irresponsible and capable of pushing African countries back into their huge debt build-up cycles.
The Civic Democrats (ODS) won a landslide victory in the Czech Senate and local elections, held on 20�21 October; the position of ODS leader Mirek Topolanek is considerably boosted as he continues negotiations for the formation of a new cabinet, while his main opponent, Jiri Paroubek of the Social Democrats, has been weakened.
The service sector�s contribution to the Asian economy has remained well below that in the west, with the exception of Japan.
Campaigning ahead of the second-round vote of the Brazilian presidential elections on 29 October closed on Wednesday, with polls showing President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva of the Worker�s Party (PT), holding a lead of over 20% over his rival, former governor of S�o Paulo Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social Democratic Party�PSDB).
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its authoritative annual appraisal of global FDI trends earlier this week. Global Insight analyses its findings, and asks whether the impressive cross-border flows of 2005 will be repeated over subsequent years.
Suspected members of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrilla group have today (18-oct-06) targeted the key port of Galle in the south of Sri Lanka.
The UN Security Council (UNSC) agreed on Saturday (14 October) to impose sanctions on North Korea, after the Stalinist leadership significantly raised tension in north-east Asia by allegedly detonating a nuclear bomb last week.
Asia Pacific excluding Japan continues to enjoy the world�s most robust industrial performance as a region. For 2007, we anticipate that four of the world�s 12 fastest-growing industries will be from the service sector.
Sunni leaders yesterday voiced fears that the federalism law approved by a slim majority in parliament is a recipe for the disintegration of Iraq.
Rival Ecuadorian candidates concluded their campaigns with political rallies aiming to stem the flow of support in favour of leftist front-runner Rafael Correa, who led the field of 13 candidates in final polls.
Texas and Louisiana demonstrate the risks of relying on a comparative advantage.
The September employment report showed a payroll gain of only 51,000. But the August gain was revised up, the unemployment rate fell, and new benchmark data indicate that the payroll survey has been understating employment growth. The economy is slowing, but not enough to prompt a Fed rate cut before next March.
Political instability could beckon again in Ukraine as the pro-Presidential Our Ukraine party prepares to switch to the opposition benches.
The North Korean regime yesterday announced its intention to conduct a nuclear bomb test as a deterrent to "the U.S. threat", thereby significantly raising tension in north-east Asia.
The peace process in C�te d'Ivoire has entered a new phase with the recent demand by the ruling Popular Ivorian Front for all French military personnel to leave the country.
Former prime minister Lionel Jospin has announced that he will not present himself as a possible candidate for the 2007 presidential election.
Conservative chancellor Wolfgang Sch�ssel has been deprived of a third term in power, after a defeat not predicted by polls.
Prime Minister Romano Prodi is preparing for a key test of coalition unity following the government�s approval of the 2007 draft budget.
In the first of a series of articles on the upcoming Brazilian election, Global Insight takes a closer look at some of the economic challenges facing the winner of the October poll.
Teachers leading demonstrations in the southern state of Oaxaca abruptly ended talks with Interior Minister Carlos Abascal after failing to broker a deal to halt protests that have disrupted historic Oaxaca City since May.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has announced a state of emergency following an apparent military coup attempt in Thailand.
Coup leader and army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin is expected to unveil a policy programme today after the military took control of government last night.
Global Insight has been closely monitoring political developments in Thailand during 2006, which culminated this week with a military coup, and we now turn our attention to possible risk triggers over the short and medium terms.
Following a review of Global Insight's sovereign risk position on Thailand in the wake of the 19 September coup, we have left the rating unchanged at 35 on a stable outlook, reflecting the strength of external fundamentals, which should provide insulation against volatility.
Jordanian officials maintain that security levels in the capital and beyond are adequate, despite the killing of one British tourist yesterday in a daylight attack by a "lone" gunman.
The Sudanese government has called on the African Union (AU) to leave Darfur, as it launches a new military push in its restive western province.
A court in south-east Kazakhstan has delivered guilty verdicts in the murder trial of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev, handing down the death sentence to the main defendant although there remain a number of unanswered questions fuelling the belief that the trial was an elaborate cover-up.
LUKoil's indefatigable chief executive, Vagit Alekperov, has started planning for his next trip to Iraq in pursuit of the West Qurna field, which was awarded to the Russian player by the previous regime, although subsequently withdrawn for contract non-performance. Alekperov said that he plans to visit Iraq early next year to discuss the project, in which LUKoil had held a 68.5% stake.
News stories about the U.S. steel industry are confusing. Some indicate strength, some weakness. This confusion is actually a clear sign of a turning point, and a leading indicator that prices will fall in the fourth quarter.
Brazilian President Luiz In�cio Lula da Silva this week unveiled his programme for government during 2007-10, promising continuity in the event of him securing a second mandate at the forthcoming election.
The cabinet has agreed in principle on the deployment of peacekeeping forces to Lebanon, but opposition in high circles remains.
President Fidel Castro has announced, via a communiqu�, the handover of all his powers to his brother, Raul Castro, and other top officials; however temporary, the extent of the unprecedented measure has sparked speculations about the health of the leader, with dissidents openly celebrating the possibility of his imminent death.
An air strike has killed 56 Lebanese civilians, many of them children, in the deadliest attack so far in the offensive against Hizbollah, with Israel subsequently announcing that it would suspend aerial bombings of Lebanon for 48 hours.
Capital expenditure takes over the lead role from consumer spending as the principal driver for global economic growth.
The Democratic Republic of Congo will hold its first democratic election in over 40 years this Sunday, which, if it goes well, will transform the country into a new political era.
Attempts to broker a Lebanese peace deal come against the backdrop of the deaths of four UN peacekeepers, killed following an Israeli air strike in southern Lebanon
Three candidates will be competing for the top political spot in Sao Tome in elections scheduled for Sunday (30 July). With an impending oil boom set to transform this isolated island nation into an international energy producer, the stakes are high for the politicians engaged in the race.
GDP qrowth was 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2006, the best performance for two years, according to a "flash" estimate from the Office for National Statistics.
The Israeli army has intensified its assault on Hizbollah�s outposts and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Several claims had been made in the past couple of years over the potential acceptance of a ceasefire agreement between the separatist Cabindan movements and the Angolan authorities in Luanda, to no avail. After 31 years of resistance and aspirations for independence the fighting may be over.
Foreign governments are scrambling to evacuate thousands of their citizens from Lebanon as international efforts to end a burgeoning Middle Eastern military crisis stagger on.
Israel intensified air strikes on Lebanon this morning, targeting the country�s infrastructure, as the escalating military crisis threatens to engulf the region.
Poland�s Prime Minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, has resigned from his post after just nine months and will officially step down today (10 July). His departure opens the position up for Jaroslaw Kaczynski, head of the ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, and the identical twin brother of President Lech Kaczynski.
Ukraine's new parliamentary speaker has formally announced the creation of a new "anti-crisis" coalition which has nominated the defeated presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych as its choice for prime minister; the move once again threatens to polarise Ukraine with the two main Orange parties demanding new elections, indicating that they will block parliament.
Shamil Basayev, Russia's public enemy No.1 and an icon for the Chechen rebel movement, has been killed in an explosion in the fractious republic of Ingushetia; his death is a major propaganda victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of the G8 summit and may have an impact on the Chechen rebel group's ability to secure external funding, but will not signally alter the course of the conflict.
Data on developments in GDP by end-use in the first quarter reveal that growth of gross fixed capital formation slowed significantly from the preceding quarter while net exports of goods and services remained a substantial drag on overall growth.
Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the final count confirmed a slim advantage of just 0.58% for conservative contender Felipe Calder�n ahead of left-leaning challenger Andr�s Manuel L�pez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico�s closest ever presidential contest.
The international community has shown itself to be divided on co-ordinating a unified response to the North Korean launch of a long-range missile yesterday, despite renewed warnings by the Kim Jong-il regime that it may test-fire further missiles.
The arduous campaigning is over and it is left to Mexican voters to decide who will become the nation�s next president in a contest that could come down to a tie between two candidates: the ruling National Action Party (PAN)�s business-friendly Felipe Calder�n and left-leaning former Mexico City Mayor Andr�s Manuel L�pez Obrador (AMLO).
The Israeli army has moved into southern Gaza, following threats of a major military deployment designed to secure the release of a kidnapped soldier; the assault overshadows an announcement by the ruling Palestinian Hamas movement to implicitly recognise the Jewish state.
The board of directors of Luxembourg-based steel giant Arcelor has finally agreed to a merger with the world's largest steelmaker, Mittal, effectively ending the long-running saga which has pitted Arcelor's own minority shareholders against its own board, highlighting the economic nationalist backlash within a number of Europe's bluechip companies against foreign takeovers.
Russia�s state-controlled gas giant, Gazprom, has warned that the return of Yulia Tymoshenko as Ukraine's Prime Minister could trigger a repeat of the gas dispute between the two states over the New Year which led Gazprom to temporarily cut off supplies, sending shockwaves throughout Europe.
Last month, after simultaneous government scandals, poor local election results and a controversial cabinet reshuffle, many were predicting Prime Minister Tony Blair's imminent departure; one month on, Blair is demonstrating his renowned political survival skills, but successive opinion polls are piling on the pressure.
Russian GDP growth slowed to 5.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2006, down from 7.9% in the final quarter of last year, a modest improvement over the performance registered in the first quarter of 2005.
The international community is moving from stick to carrot in an attempt to break the deadlock over Iran's nuclear programme, with a package of incentives expected to be finalised later this week, including trade and economic concessions in exchange for the suspension of more controversial aspects of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Incoming Prime Minister Romano Prodi has been forced to propose an octogenarian senator-for-life as the new president in an attempt to appease the main centre-left party without exacerbating the divisions between the incoming government and the centre-right opposition.
The Chinese economy expanded at a scorching rate of 10.2% on the year during the first quarter of 2006, flouting government efforts to trammel growth.
In a policy reversal, Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday ordered a change in the planned route of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline to minimise the risks to Lake Baikal, the world's largest freshwater lake and a UNESCO world heritage site.
Iran has failed to comply with UN demands for an end to sensitive nuclear enrichment, the world body's atomic watchdog concluded on Friday (28 April); the verdict further exacerbates Iran's tensions with the international community, with the likelihood of some form of punitive action against the Islamic Republic also increasing.
Bolivian President Evo Morales yesterday signed a decree nationalising the gas sector and ordered troops to seize control of 56 fields.
Flash data from the Federal Statistics Office (FSO) reveal that real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2005 stagnated quarter-on-quarter (q/q), adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors.
Oil prices have been increasingly volatile in recent weeks, as geopolitical concerns take center stage. Iran is likely to be a dominant and persistent theme throughout 2006, as the status of its nuclear program and corresponding oil production spur price volatility.
The Latvian economy is currently on the fast track, leading the European growth league, as the vigorous pace of expansion seen in second-quarter 2005�when GDP growth surged to 11.4% year-on-year (y/y)�was exactly maintained in the third quarter.
With several of the new European Union (EU) member states having joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) and heading towards eventual adoption of the euro, it is informative to consider the experiences that current Eurozone countries have had with the process of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
As Hurricane Rita heads towards Houston, the potential impact on energy markets may far exceed the impact of all previous hurricanes. Coming on top of the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina, energy markets are heading for uncharted territory. Consumer prices and U.S. economic performance would be severely affected.


Davy Linggar's unbridled passion for photography has taken him on a handful of trips across the globe. HighEnd conversed with him to talk about his travel diary, photography, and how the two harmoniously blend together.
What photographic style compels you the most?
I love street photography. When being out and about, I like to observe my surroundings, all the details, and everything that feels personal for me. Even when I was pursuing photography studies, I still spent most of my time traveling to different cities.
What are destinations that aspire you the most?
Japan. Tokyo, Kyoto, and art islands Naoshima and Teshima. There are always details that never bore me in that country; from its people, architectures, to row of stores. Also everything is practically easy to find in Japan, like camera accessories or inspiring books.
Do you have your favorite Japanese photographer?
Yes, I am a fan of Hiroshi Sugimoto and Daido Moriyama.
Other than Japan, do you have any preferred destinations?
I also adore New York City. In general, I like urban cities for their own characteristics, complexity and yet ease of access - ideal stops for photo hunting.
There are times where I went hiking pretty often. The challenge of hiking has always been picking the right camera - I suggest the lighter, the better. Your physical condition should also be very fit. You have to follow your own rhythm. If you get tired, don't force yourself. Know your own capability.
What are your travel wish-list?
I really want to visit and explore the North and South Poles.
What are your trips for photo hunting while traveling?
Bring lightweight gears that come in handy. In my case, I bring my Leica M10, some small lenses, and a small camera bag.


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