Q: How do I filter out and see only MAA newsfeed on Facebook?
A: Bookmark and open a new tab with this link - https://www.facebook.com/?sk=app_194577560619891. This should aid your visual and help claim those much needed Shield Points.
Q: How do I locate/claim my Daily Marvel Bonus! ?
A: You need to enable Facebook to send you notification from the application, in this case, Marvel: Avengers Alliance. If this doesn't work, try blocking and then momentarily unblock the application back. Daily Marvel Bonuses are not transferrable.
Q: Why are Shield Points needed so much?
A: This a newbie question: Shield points are only a problem when you are new but once your level goes up you will start hating them. Ask your high level friends.
To collect more SHIELD points, consider using - The Game Feed Collector. Remember you can only collect 30 per day.
Q: If I buy the hero needed in the premium mission, does that unlock the premium mission?
Q: What is so special about premium missions?
A: There are good items that are obtainable only in the premium missions.They are also essential for Chapter Mastery.The enemies in the premium depends on the level of the agent.
Q: What are the best ways to farm command points?
A: Every time you defeat a Mission or Epic Boss you will have a chance to get 1, 3, 5 or 10 Command Points.
Getting a 5 star mastery per Mission will give you 5 Command Points.
Critical Hit is a good way to get extra Command Points.
Q: How to unlock Epic Boss?
A: You need to fight all the battles and deploy who are needed to be deployed.
The Mission Boss is not essential for the Epic Boss to Appear.
Q: I cannot unlock Chapter 8. Why?
A: As of now. Chapter 8 Dark Rites has not bee released.
Q: If I put ISO-8 in my uniform, is it permanently stuck there?
A: It is permanently stuck there unless you change or replace it. Do note once you replace a new ISO-8 with another, your former ISO-8 will be destroyed/gone. ISO-8 in Uniform is replaceable.
Q: Are items I put as PVP Bonus replaceable?
A: Yes. But you once you place them in, you cannot reverse the move and cannot get the old items back.
Q: What the best things to research when starting out? Are there things not worth research?
A: Research what you think is important. Duh!!!! What am I talking about?!
Depends on you. There are players that research for consumable items.
Q: What are the benefits/rewards for participating in PvP?
A: 5XP. Some random but useful consumable items from critical hits.
Fame and Glory You will also gain many enemies in your rival list and see your losses mount.
Q: How often can you get Distress Calls and bonuses from visiting friend's cities? Is it once a day, once a week, or is it a one time deal?
A: Once a day. Every 24 hours. As a word of advice, only collect Distress Call from active gamers. You don't want an Agent appearing with a Needle Gun and only some 20 to 30HP is taken off the opponent.
Q: Does heroes have Max Level?
A: Yes. The max level is 12. Do note training hours varies. At Level 12 it takes 300,000 Coins and 72 Hours to train them to their maximum potential.
Q: If I accidentally start a mission that turns out to be too hard, how do I get out of it?
A: Go to Flight Deck, click "Missions" tab. Abort the Mission.
Q: Highest type of ISO-8?
A: Shards, available at level 60.
Q: Highest type of "Researchable" uniform?
A: The 6 slot Reinforced Trench is available at level 80. That cost 22 Gold I think.
Q: What is the max accepts for Gift accepts?
A: 50 gifts for most players.
Q: What time PST does the day reset so I can start collecting again?
A: Many say 12 midnight PST. Asian time is +8 GMT that means 1600 Hours my local time.
Q: When a hero is Training (say, Iron Man for 7th level for 12 frigging hours), can Iron Man be used when he is a required Team-Up hero (like against Crimson Dynamo)?
A: No. The hero in training will be unavailable to be used on missions, team-ups, remote-ops. But is available for PVP.
Q: How many free heroes will the game give?
A: 3. Black Widow, Iron Man, and a choice from the 5 cheapest heroes. There is also Hawkeye which cost 1 command point which is as good as free and not optional.
@ Level 11you get to choose one more - Ms. Marvel (Blaster) / Iron Fist (Scrapper) / Invisible Woman (Infiltrator) / Cyclops (Tactician). So choose wisely.
Q: How to earn Gold?
A: Level Up you will gain 1 Gold (But not all levels, some levels unlock you slots), 4 star mastery chapters earn you 1 Gold too, Earn Gold or Buy. Or take part in the Earn Gold via a Facebook/Playdom Survey MCQ - That earns you 1 Gold.
Q: How to achieve perfection?
A: Do not defeat the mini-boss(es) so when the mission boss appears, the mini-boss(es) will fight with him/her for a chance of a higher point.
Q: Is there a way to request specific gifts (i.e. energy, for example)?
A: There are "ask friends" buttons for energy, shield points and challenge points.
Q: Who are the heroes I should buy first?
✔ Premium Mission unlock and completion/ Chapters deployment.
✔ Team-Set Up - ✔ Offensive Attack ✔ Defensive Passive or ✔ Versatile Neutral Balanced?
✔ PvP - Player vs Player on a regular daily basis?
✔ Or just PvC - Players vs Computer only (Closed play)?
✔ Your current $$$ - how much CP do you have? Now? In a week's time?
✔ Are you after only BRANDED heroes? Well-known celebrities vs practical can do characters?
Q: What does the Power Level mean? How should it effect my decision regarding which weapon to equip?
A: A simple hierarchy of weapons made by the developers. Not necessarily a big thing to consider when it comes to choosing a weapon/gear.
Q: How should I decide what weapons/gear to use?
A: Whichever weapon is useful for your strategy. Take it gradually. Do not rush unless you are willing to spend on this social game.
Q: How to obtain Golden Weapons?
A: Achieve 5 stars on all 6 missions(including the premium) per chapter. To view what you can get in every chapter, click the "view briefing" button in every chapter.
Q: Is there a limit for number of allies?
A: Yes. I never really counted but the PVP bonus from number of allies seems stuck at 25% so once a player reach that they stop getting new allies.
There are players that I do not see as my ally that are able to visit me. That means even if you do not see them as ally they see you. For now I was told 100 players will appear on your ladder. The system is not perfect, we just have to live with it.
Q: How do I delete inactive allies?
Q: How can I find out how to boost my Agent and Heroes statistics?
A: By levelling up, your Agent's statistics gets stronger. Your Agent and Heroes statistics can also be influenced by purchase or installation of new uniforms as well as other ISO-8s - Attack, Accuracy, Defense, Evasion etc.
Health - The ability to stay alive longer in fights.
Attack - Offensive capability to inflict more damage and negativity to opponent health strength/points.
Defense - Ability to absorb damage, lesser damage taken to Health Points.
Accuracy - Chances to get more Critical Hits.
Evasion - Ability to doge opponent attacks.
Q: How does Turns and Rounds work?
A: After the recent update that happened on May 3, 2012, the changes revolving PvP and PvE on which side is able to perform during battles have changed. Prior to this, most equipments and hero's skills are based on turns, which means for as long as the agent or hero that has numerous turns before another agent's or hero's, then the cooldown of equipments and skills will be deducted per turn regardless of whether a full round has passed.
A full round consists of turns taken by both sides in the battle. If an ally or opponent has yet to taken its turn in that round, all round related cooldowns will not reset or be deducted.
Q: I have completed all Chapters and Missions to date. Where's the best place or mission to farm XP and level up please?
Chapter 5 - Mission 6 - Hydra Assemble!
Q: Which are the best uniform(s) or classes I should equip my Agent (You the Player) with? And which ISO-8 III Shards would you recommend I power them up with?
ISO Advice: Refined Violent Red Shards @ 3 Gold each or 4 Precise Red Shards @ 5,200 Coins each and 4 Strong Red Shards @ 6,000 Coins each.
Do note you do not use this uniform if there are 1 or more Tacticians in the game.
when is next pvp season start?
how come i get so many duplicate comic covers everytime while opening lockboxes??? how many max. duplicate covers can we get before getting all 8 covers??


This Irish trio of Declan McLaughlin, Gary Curran & Gareth Donoghue have captivated a sound that was lost so many years ago when the 90's was ruled by electronic dance music with no genre barriers. With the usage of old school samples, archaic modes of composition and the addition of some poppy electro the music comes together to create a big room feel. If you haven't heard of them yet they have been busy taking the UK by storm with festivals and shows packed with excited fans. Travelling through the interpretive fields of strange and familiar energy on the album there is a lot of 'party or rave esque' types of fixture tracks which a lot of people may associate with euphoric good times of the past and now the present. "Face Melter" is a good example of this style of music. Loud abrasive metallic sounds thrown over top of break beats and crashing symbols inducing the intensity and pace of the track. People who enjoyed groups like Enigma and Deep Forest will also take note of the subdued and atmospheric titles like "Smile & Rise of Ulysses". Calming soundscapes and outdoor breezes meld into a welcoming array of sounds that will ease the soul amongst the welcomed chaos that is the rest of the album.


text:
Marcellin Nadeau, né le  à Saint-Pierre en Martinique, est un homme politique français. Il est élu conseiller à l'Assemblée de Martinique en 2012 et député de la deuxième circonscription de la Martinique en 2022.

Biographie

Formation
Marcellin Nadeau est titulaire d'une maîtrise en droit public et d'un DEA en sciences administratives obtenus à l'Université de Grenoble. Il travaille ensuite comme gestionnaire comptable.

Parcours politique

Mandats locaux
Il est conseiller général du canton du Prêcheur de 2004 à 2015, vice-président de la commission de l'Agriculture, de la Pêche et de l'Aménagement rural au sein du conseil général, puis président de la commission Sport et Culture. Il est aussi  de la Communauté de communes du Nord de la Martinique (CCNM) de 2008 à 2014.

Il est maire du Prêcheur de 2008 à 2022. Après avoir été membre du Mouvement des démocrates et écologistes pour une Martinique souveraine (MODEMAS), un parti nationaliste fondé par Garcin Malsa, il fonde en 2019, avec le député Jean-Philippe Nilor, le mouvement politique Péyi-A. Il est depuis sa création le coprésident de ce parti.

Député
Marcellin Nadeau est élu député dans la deuxième circonscription de la Martinique lors des élections législatives de 2022, avec 63,46 % voix, face à Justin Pamphile (maire du Lorrain).

Comme plusieurs autres élus ultramarins, il siège dans le groupe parlementaire de la Gauche démocrate et républicaine (groupe communiste), contrairement au cofondateur du parti Péyi-A, Jean-Philippe Nilor qui a choisi de siéger dans le groupe de la France insoumise.

Notes et références

Liens externes

 Site de campagne aux élections législatives de 2012

Député de la Martinique
Député de la XVIe législature de la Ve République
Naissance en novembre 1962
Naissance à Saint-Pierre (Martinique)
Candidat aux élections législatives françaises de 2012
Candidat aux élections législatives françaises de 2017

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


This is 38 Special Hornady Critical Defense Lite 90gr. FTX Hollow Point Ammo. The Critical Defense Lite 38 Special load is an effective, reduced recoil option for ANY shooter looking to minimize the felt recoil of their lightweight, compact personal protection revolver. Designed with the same proven components as the Critical Defense line of ammunition, this offering features a 90 grain FTX bullet with a unique PINK Flex Tip! This ammo is nickel coated brass cased, boxer primed, non-magnetic and non-corrosive. This ammo comes packed in 25rd. boxes.
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My wife's a first shooter and this ammo gave her the confidence she needed to get use to her 38 special with reduced recoil.


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I was searching for a Property and found this listing (MLS® #318004535). Please send me more information regarding 33865 Diana Drive B, Dana Point, CA, 92629. Thank you!
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text:
Q: Error "Too many return arguments are specified. Specify only one." I get this error "Too many return arguments are specified. Specify only one."
I understand what it means, but it does not make any sense. Since I have already two output blocks and scope in my simulink file.

What could be the reason for this error?
This my "error" code:
[tout,yout]=sim("TP_sub.slx")

A: There is no problem with your simulink model, the problem is how you call the sim function. If you look at the docs, you see that sim only returns one output:
simOut = sim(modelname)

In earlier versions of Matlab, it was possible to add the state and output as additional output arguments, but currently you can only output a simOut object.
This simOut object will contain some information, but by default it will not contain the simulation time and model outputs.
You can obtain this data by adding additional arguments to the sim call (complete list here). For example, using the 'vdp' model,
mdl = 'vdp';
load_system(mdl);
simOut = sim(mdl,  'SaveOutput','on','OutputSaveName','yout', 'SaveTime', 'on')

you will obtain
simOut =
  Simulink.SimulationOutput:

                   tout: [64x1 double]
                   yout: [64x2 double]

     SimulationMetadata: [1x1 Simulink.SimulationMetadata]
           ErrorMessage: [0x0 char]

from which you can get the simulation time, output 1 and 2 by
t = simOut.tout;
y1 = simOut.yout(:,1);
y1 = simOut.yout(:,2);

Another option to get the data in your workspace is to add To Workspace blocks, like you are already doing.

A:
I understand what it means, but it does not make any sense.
What could be the reason for this error?

Obviously you are not aware that a and b in the following example may be something completely different:
[x,y] = myFunction(someValue)
a = [x,y]

b = myFunction(someValue)

At least if the function myFunction is a "mex function" (and most Simulink-related functions are!), the function myFunction can be defined in a way that totally different values are returned depending on the number of return values given:
[x,y]=myFunction(someValue) may return two 10x20 matrices and b=myFunction(someValue) may return a single number (1x1 matrix).
You cannot just use [x,y]=someFunction(someValue) to "split" a single value returned by the function someFunction into two parts!
The sim function returns one single value.

A: Thanks for your Comments . But actually it si possible to get multiple outputs from sim function . You just shoulld change" Model Confugiration Settings > Data Import/Export pane and UNCHECK Single simulation"

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
SEHORANA JOSEPHNews
On Sunday 17th February, a team of 12 people from Winchester Diocese (UK) landed to Rwanda for 9 days visit in the Diocese of Shyogwe of the Anglican Church of Rwanda. The team is composed by Pastors, teachers and Lay people being trained to be ordained. The aim of the visit is to share Jesus' love with the People of Rwanda and also to learn how to do mission in UK under the inspiration of Rwanda experience. One may say that the contexts of these two churches are very different, but the Church has fundamental realities which apply in each context. After the 1994 Genocide committed against Tutsi, the Church has embarked on the process of reconciliation and transformation which has borne tangible fruits. UK nowadays is being under pressure of secularization and the political distress with Brexit plan, so it is believed that those being trained by Winchester School of Mission can be inspired by the experience of Rwanda pastors on how to do mission in a complex situation.
On Sunday, February 17, 2019, the UK team visited Runda Parish where Rev. Mark Collinson preached the word on the Lord's Prayer and requested Runda parishioners to pray for the Church in UK for the Holy Spirit to be at work.
On Monday 18th, the Winchester Team met with Shyogwe Diocesan staff for morning devotion and shared with Shyogwe staff about what the Diocese does in order to bring the Kingdom of God in RWANDA and beyond.
Winchester Diocese is linked to the Diocese of Shyogwe for mutual partnership in the Gospel.
By Rev. Jean Pierre Methode RUKUNDO, Diocesan Development Officer
PASTORS OF SHYOGWE DIOCESE SIGNED THE PERFORMANCE CONTRACTS WITH THE BISHOP

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Herrnleben ist der Familienname folgender Personen:

 Albert Herrnleben (* 1972), deutscher Kabarettist und Puppenspieler
 Florian Herrnleben (* 1982), deutscher Kabarettist, Puppenspieler und Hörspielsprecher


text:
On-going Exhibits
Macculloch Hall Museum and Gardens
All the Creatures Were Stirring, Even the Mouse! Thomas Nast's Furry Christmas
November 1, 2020-October 31, 2021
Thomas Nast (1840-1902) illustrated the figure of Santa Claus and Christmas images throughout his career. Nast was inspired by the famous poem A Visit from Saint Nicholas, popularly known as 'Twas The Night Before Christmas, written by Clement Clarke Moore in 1822. Nast included many elements from Moore's poem in his illustrations.
Through a selection of the artist's work, this exhibition explores how Nast developed the image of Santa Claus as a jolly, round-bellied, white-bearded, gnome-like figure that immediately captured the imagination of both children and adults throughout the United States when first published and that continues to delight audiences to this day.
Morris Museum- A Smithsonian Affiliate
Smithsonian Spark!Lab
Spark!Lab, where everyone is an Inventor!
Spark!Lab offers any child (ages 5-12 years old and accompanied by an adult), a new informal approach to hands-on learning. Instead of following step-by-step instructions, young inventors will be empowered to problem-solve and overcome real-world obstacles. Spark!Lab offers many unique, project-specific stations, where inventors can engage directly with engineering and design challenges.
This dynamic, Smithsonian-created learning space will inspire young visitors to create, collaborate, and innovate. As New Jersey's only Smithsonian Affiliate, the Museum is proud to launch the tenth Spark!Lab in the nation.
Timed tickets are available from noon to 4 pm at the visitor center. Timed tickets are free with Museum admission.
Note: Spark!Lab is closed October 20-24, 2021.
Stowed Away: A Traveling Philographist and His Arctic Uke
October 29, 2021 – March 6, 2022
Stowed Away: A Traveling Philographist and His Arctic Uke explores the story behind the ukulele that "stowed-away" on Admiral Richard Byrd's North-Pole flight of 1926. Featuring Richard Konter's original ukulele alongside its reproduction, the exhibition reveals recent discoveries about the instrument using advanced imaging techniques.
The ukulele belonged to Richard Konter, a naval veteran of the Spanish-American War and World War I, who participated in Byrd expeditions to
both the Arctic and Antarctic. For years after the flight, Konter used this
instrument as an unusual "autograph book," collecting the signatures of more
than 150 individuals—from royalty to presidents, explorers to generals, scientists
to politicians—who added their names to this unique artifact of Arctic history.
To identify these signatures, a wide range of historical sources were consulted to
verify each one. Autobiographical accounts written by Richard Byrd, Laurence
Gould, and Richard Konter supported the identification of numerous signers
while corroborating the signers' intersection with Richard Konter. Documents,
letters, official crew lists, and photographs, found at the National Archives and
the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, offered rich, primary source material, to inform the overall
story of Richard Konter and his ukulele. And Richard Konter's stepdaughter, Jean Neptune, also provided
her contribution of oral histories, firsthand accounts, and personal photographs.
To further verify the signatures, the Smithsonian Institute's Museum Conservation Institute (MCI)
scrutinized the surface of the ukulele, deploying non-invasive, digital-imaging techniques. These
approaches revealed details invisible to the unaided eye and allowed the identification of many signatures
that had faded over time. Notable confirmed signatures include Calvin Coolidge, Charles A. Lindbergh,
Thomas A. Edison, and others. Through these culminated efforts, 123 of the 158 signers have been
identified with certainty.
Special Installation Spotlight: Don't Go Quiet by Breakfast
April 10, 2021 – November 21, 2021
The new media artist collective BREAKFAST specializes in kinetic works that are connected to social causes. They created this piece in response to the civil unrest that spread across the nation in the wake of George Floyd's death on May 25, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Each sweep of movement across the piece is tied to an individual social media post using the #blacklivesmatter hashtag in real time. The piece is also activated by you, our visitor. When you move into viewing range, a sensor registers your motion and routes the data through a computer that captures your silhouette. The computer then activates synchronized magnets that instantaneously flip the two-colored discs to render your shape.
First Museum Exhibition to Examine NJ Artists' Work
Both On and Off the Streets
September 24, 2021–February 27, 2022
On and Off the S treets: Urban Art, New Jersey is the first museum exhibition to examine the duality of
New Jersey artists whose creative versatility extends from the street to
the studio. Although their outdoor murals are more commonly
experienced in the "open air" galleries that have cropped up in Jersey
City, Newark, Asbury Park, and Trenton, these twelve artists also
maintain a successful studio practice, producing works on canvas,
paper, and wood, as well as sculpture, video, stickers, stencils,
skateboard decks, and fashion. Along with these studio-produced
works, eleven of the artists have painted 13-1/2 feet tall x 20 feet wide
murals directly on the Morris Museum's gallery walls expressly for this
exhibition to capture the scale and site-specific nature of their street art
practice. The impact of the streets on the studio will be explored, as the
lines between urban art and fine art have become increasingly blurred.
With roots in late 1970's graffiti, skateboard, and punk subcultures,
today's street art has evolved into a cultural phenomenon with a distinct
visual language that has reclaimed public spaces in cities across the
globe. Encompassing unique styles and varied techniques, street
artists address topics that range from notions of place to cries against injustice. Not only has urban art
transformed our visual landscape, it has impacted the cultural expression of our time, including fashion,
design, advertising, and the contemporary art canon. While neighboring New York-based street artists
continue to receive attention from museums and cultural centers worldwide, those based in New Jersey have
been largely overlooked.
Iranian Sister Duo Presents New Video Painting & Installation Work
On view November 12, 2021–April 24, 2022
(Morristown, NJ – October 2021) – The Morris Museum presents Body Double: The Safarani Sisters featuring the work of identical twin Iranian artists Bahareh and Farzaneh Safarani in their first solo museum exhibition, opening on November 12, 2021. As interdisciplinary artists and collaborators, their creative practice exists at the intersection of visual art, new media art, and performance. The exhibition highlights their studio work, charting a path from their signature "video-paintings"—video overlays of choreographed movement projected onto figurative oil-on-canvas paintings—to new pieces that reflect the fluidity of their outlook. On view are twelve video-paintings, one oil painting, a site-specific installation incorporating augmented reality, and a short film created expressly for this exhibition that documents the artists' unique creative process. The exhibition opening will be preceded by a VIP preview event on Wednesday, November 10.
The exhibition begins with recent work that affirms the Safarani Sisters' experimentation with video projection and traditional painting to elicit mood and emotion, including Blue Curtain (2017), Remember (2018), Puppet Dance (2019), Puppeteer (2019), Reflection (2019) and Beneath the Breath (2020). These represent scenes from a continuum, a narrative portraying the growth and evolution of a character depicted through this ongoing body work. Seven new works have been created for this exhibition, including two large pieces—Unravelling Ceremony (2021) and Umbilical Cord (2021)—and four smaller works in series—Perpetual Dance, Sanctuary of Her, The Moment of Comprehension, and Rapture of Dance (all 2021)—that, when installed together, suggest sequential images from a film strip or, with the video overlay, scenes from a movie, further reinforcing the overarching of narrative themes in the sisters' work. The new, unifying element in these pieces is the imagery of a red rope, symbolizing both connectivity and boundary.
The red rope becomes a physical presence in the site-specific installation. The walls, floor, and ceiling of this room are painted black, creating a womb-like space, with a circle of red rope suspended from the ceiling and an overlay of augmented reality. Extending their experimentation with digital technology further, the sisters bring the experiential effects of their video-paintings into the real and virtual worlds, blurring the boundaries.
Museum of Early Trades & Crafts
Hidden Treasures from METC's Permanent Exhibit
Museum collections contain vast stories. These narratives are held within the collections of historic objects, fine art, archival material, and library holdings. Each item within a museum collection communicates the distinct perspective of the individual or group who crafted the objects; those who owned the objects; those who collected the objects; and the communities and people who used the
objects to define their societies.
METC's Permanent Collection represents New Jersey's development from early European settlement to industrialization. We acknowledge the gaps in our collection, which include indigenous populations, enslaved people, and other groups whose lives significantly contributed to the comprehensive story of the Garden State. Comprised of approximately 8,900 objects, the collection tells complex stories of New Jersey culture, economy, and society through home, shop, and farm trades.
Uncovered: Hidden Treasures from METC's Permanent Collection situates historic objects and documents at the forefront of the exhibit's narrative. Artifacts are oriented on platforms and in cases to demonstrate their significance as multifaceted items. As you walk around this gallery, view a selection of objects and historical records from the Permanent Collection. You may adjust your outlook on how these artifacts tell meaningful and intricate accounts of Americans, and specifically New Jerseyans, in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Working the Land: Life, Family & Change in Early 1800s New Jersey
This exhibit tells the stories of those men and women who lived in New Jersey during the early 1800's, exploring the tools and strategies that helped the people of the time meet the challenges of working the land. One of the focal points is discussions about "moments of change" which include new technologies, innovations, adaptations and breakthrough inventions that would eventually alter people's lives.
Working with award winning exhibit designers, graphic artists, master millworkers and technicians, the new exhibit presents a story of daily life, struggle, ingenuity, families, hard work, and the human connection to the earth.
Explore the exhibit online! Click here to take 3-D tour of Working the Land: Life, Family & Change in Early 1800s New Jersey.
Morris County Historical Society at Acorn Hall
Front view of Acorn Hall in the Spring surrounded by trees.
A Storied Past : History That Made Morris County
March- December 2021
2021 is a landmark year for MCHS, representing both the 75 anniversary of the incorporation and the 50th year anniversary of Mary Crane Hone's donation of Acorn Hall. To celebrate these milestones, A Storied Past will highlight Morris County's vibrant history as told through the remarkable objects and images preserved in the collections.


text:
astrotweeps
Astronomer Sign Up
Introducing Graeme Poole
Graeme Poole is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Bristol working on early solar system cosmochemistry and the formation of planetary bodies. Via the dark art of mass spectrometry, he is measuring isotopes in meteorites to gauge the origin of volatiles delivered to Earth. Meteorites from primitive bodies are the equivalent of a time machine; they hold a record of the conditions during solar system formation over 4.5 billion years ago and have remained (mostly) unchanged since.
Prior to this, Graeme studied for a PhD at Imperial College London, researching nucleosynthetic isotope anomalies and the conditions in the solar nebula at the time of terrestrial planet formation. During his undergraduate degree in Earth Sciences at the University of Oxford, Graeme also had the privilege to work on lunar samples brought back by the Apollo missions. So if it's a rock and it's from space, Graeme is all over it!
Graeme is currently co-chair of the United Kingdom Planetary Forum (@UKPlanetary), a body that promotes planetary research within the UK, and is a Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society (@RoyalAstroSoc). Outside of the lab, Graeme can be found almost exclusively on the cricket pitch.
laboratory work, Meteorites
Introducing Larry Nittler
Larry Nittler is a staff scientist in the Dept. of Terrestrial Magnetism of the Carnegie Institution of Washington. He is a cosmochemist and planetary scientist whose research interests span stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, interstellar and interplanetary dust, meteorites, and the formation and evolution of planets. He earned a BA in Physics from Cornell University in 1991 and a PhD in Physics from Washington University in St. Louis in 1996. He has been on the Carnegie staff since 2001, following a postdoc at the Carnegie and two years as a staff scientist at NASA's Goddard Spaceflight Center. His laboratory research focuses on isotopic and mineralogical properties of microscopic extraterrestrial materials including presolar grains in meteorites, interplanetary dust particles and spacecraft-returned samples, including solar wind and comet Wild 2 samples returned by the Genesis and Stardust missions, respectively. He also performs spacecraft-based remote-sensing geochemical research on planetary bodies. He led the analysis of X-ray fluorescence data for the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous mission, which orbited asteroid Eros in 2000-2001, and for the MESSENGER mission, which orbited Mercury from 2011-2015. He also served as Deputy Principle Investigator for MESSENGER. He is on the Science Team for the ESA-JAXA BepiColombo Mercury mission, to be launched in 2018, and is a Participating Scientist on JAXA's Hayabusa2 asteroid sample return mission. He received the Nier prize of the Meteoritical Society in 2001 and became a Fellow of the same society in 2010. Asteroid 5992 Nittler is named in his honor. In addition to his scientific research, Larry is a jazz pianist and composer who performs frequently with his soul-jazz group Dr. Nittler's Elastic Soultastic Planet. He lives in Washington DC with his wife, physicist Rhonda Stroud, and their daughter and two cats.
cosmochemistry, dust, evolution of planetary bodies, Meteorites, planet formation, planetary science, stellar evolution
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My phone rag at 4 AM last Sunday morning, which is never a good sign. It was a member of our IT team who was doing an upgrade to some software. He was concerned because a particular SQL statement had been running for 30 minutes so far and when this person performed the upgrade on the test system earlier in the week, this particular statement completed in a few minutes. Because this was a mission-critical system, he wanted me to take a look and see if I could tell why things were taking so long and to be sure everything was still ok.
My first step was to fire up SSMS and launch activity monitor. Sure enough, I saw the query being executed. There was no blocking going on, nor were there excessive waits. Occasionally, I would see an I/O wait, but they were on the order of 20 milliseconds and were somewhat rare. It looked to me like SQL was just chugging along.
No triggers. The reference_data_group_id was column was the second field in the primary key, so that index couldn't be used. But each of the other two indexes had this as the first column, so the database engine could have used either one of them for this query. There were also no constraints. There were three foreign keys defined on this table, but the tables they linked too had a small number of rows. No cursors were involved. Data types were matched, so there were no implicit conversion issues. The table only had about 500,000 rows in it. In short, nothing was jumping out at me as to why this simple query should take so long to run.
I decided to look at the execution plan for the query. Bingo!
Wow. That's zoomed out so you can see the whole plan, but each of those vertical lines is a nested loop operator. It turns out there were more than 200 tables that referenced the table we were deleting from with foreign keys of their own.
SQL was working through this without issue, so I decided to just let the query continue. I made sure transaction log backups were being taken frequently and that the log drive had enough room for it to grow – I didn't want this thing to bomb out for any reason and have to start over. The query ended up taking just over an hour to complete and when it was done, the table was down to 9,000 rows, so there was a lot of deleting and looping going on.
If you have what looks to be a very simple query that seems to be taking an inordinately long time to run, in addition to checking for blocking, proper indexing, triggers, and the usual suspects, keep in mind foreign keys on other tables. View the execution plan to find out exactly what SQL Server is doing.


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Q: causal effect and relationship I understand, in a correlation, r just signifies the relationship between two variables, and we CANNOT deduce that there is a causal relationship in the case of a correlation.
By contrast, we use a linear Regression analysis to predict y from x, using the equation y= mx+c. Can we discuss that there is a causal effect in this case?

A:
By contrast, we use a linear Regression analysis to predict y from x, using the equation y= mx+c. Can we discuss that there is a causal effect as well?

No. Consider the univariate regression where your coefficient m is intimately related to the correlation coefficient r.
You can study causality using linear regression, but in and of itself it doesn't say anything about causality. You can run and use regression when there's no causal relationship.

A: You are correct by saying you cannot deduce causal relationships when there is a statistically significant test of r=0, r being the Pearson correlation coefficient.
Statistical testing of the least squares regression slope (what you call m) is equivalent to tests of Pearson correlation coefficient: if one is non-zero, the other is non-zero. Tests of these hypotheses are asymptotically equivalent.
A necessary but insufficient condition to infer causality: you must either 1) randomize a cohort of participants to receive an experimental treatment or 2) control for confounding in a pseudoexperimental design using a multivariate model (estimating partial correlation or adjusted regression coefficients).
Suggested reading: Causality by Pearl 2nd ed, Causal Inference by Hernan, Robbins, Causal Diagrams for Epidemiologic Research by Greenland, Robins, Pearl.

A: First of all, as Aksakal pointed out as well, regression coefficients and (partial) correlation coefficients are linked, with the latter basically being a normalized version of the former.
Having noted that, you reason (I think) that because we can use a regression to "predict" y from x, this implies a kind of causality flowing from x to y. The problem is that prediction says nothing about causality. For example, the height of the sun in the sky is causally related to how light it is outside. Clearly, the sun being higher in the sky causes more illumination, and not the other way around. Yet, we can use our observation of how light it is outside to predict the height of the sun in the sky. I guess this can seem a bit misleading since the word "prediction" has a connotation of one event (causally) preceding another, but in this context the term is used more broadly to mean something similar to "inference".

A: Say your x variable is the dollar value of goods imported from year 2007 - 2017, and your y variable is private health spending for a person in year 2007 - 2017 as well. You plot x, y, and see a clear increasing and linear trend between x and y, and you can definitely fit a regression model to get the m. But there is no causal relationship in this case, rather a lurking variable (the common year). The association between x and y are just due to the fact that both imports and health spending grew rapidly in those years.
Reference: Introduction to the practice of statistics, chapter 2.4.


Local auto shop owner and automotive technician Rusty Flake has suited up as Santa Claus each Christmas for the last several years in order to ride his Harley Davidson motorcycle around the Greenwood and Indianapolis area to spread cheer and gifts to the children.
Rusty has always said that "this is a great opportunity to connect with the community in a positive way but really just an excuse to get some time in riding the motorcycle each holiday season". Whatever the reason for Harley Santa you can know for sure that when you deal with Rusty and his team you are dealing with people that care about community, you and your family.


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Brand Research
Brand Data
Mercedes Keeps Accelerating as World's Most Valuable Auto Brand
· Mercedes leads German charge as world's most valuable auto brand, brand value of US$60.3 billion, up 26%
· Innovation across auto sector spearheaded by Chinese brands, although many brands yet to break into top 10
· Roewe is fastest growing, brand value increasing 137% to US$1.2 billion
· Ferrari remains world's strongest auto brand with a BSI score of 94.8 out of 100
View the Brand Finance Automotive Industry 2019 report here
Mercedes leading German charge
Mercedes continues to be ranked the top auto brand in the world after its brand value increased 26% to US$60.3 billion, according to the latest report by Brand Finance, the world's leading independent brand valuation and strategy consultancy.
Over the last year, Mercedes has continued to grow its global footprint and popularity in emerging markets. Its sales in China, for example, have risen by 11.7% to a record 600,000 units for 2018. As well as Mercedes' esteemed reputation for quality and style, the brand is highly regarded for its innovative approach, having recently launched its electric EQ range.
Germany remains the dominant force in the auto industry boasting strong and trusted brands which all feature in the top 10 of the world's most valuable auto brands, such as Volkswagen (brand value up 4% to US$41.7 billion); BMW (down 3% to US$40.5 billion), Porsche (up 54% to US$29.3 billion); and Audi (up 31% to US$19.6 billion).
Volkswagen's portfolio of brands is the most potent in the market and combines a diverse set, including: Skoda, Porsche, Audi and Volkswagen. Skoda and Porsche both feature as brands with the highest brand value increase over the past year, Skoda's brand value rising by 68% to US$2.7 billion and Porsche by 54% to US$29.3 billion. Porsche has benefited from the rise in popularity of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and China's growing appetite for high-performance sports cars, which is the second biggest market for luxury cars after the US.
German brands have managed to fend off the challenge from both Japan and China, with quality and reliability prevailing over an industry that is in the process of sweeping diversification.
Alex Haigh, Director, Brand Finance, commented:
"There is no denying the dominance of German auto brands amongst the world's 10 most valuable this year. The combination of their trusted and long-standing heritage, a commitment to diversification, innovation and after sales-services really sets these German brands apart from the rest."
There has arguably never been such variety on offer across the auto sector, encompassing diesel, electric, hybrids and conventional petrol models. The rise of electric vehicles is impacting the shape of the market the most, with Chinese brands benefiting from recent government policy which encourages such production. The Chinese government have announced tax incentives and subsidies for companies manufacturing electric cars and across the country there are initiatives in place to expand the use of non-petrol vehicles. This combination has resulted in around 35% of all electric car sales coming from China.
Despite a renewed commitment to electric cars, there is no representation from Chinese brands in the top 10 of this year's Brand Finance Auto 100 2019.
Similarly, Tesla (up 31% to US$7.5 billion), the producer of new technology vehicles, which scores highly for innovation, still has ground to make up. There are concerns about Tesla's ability to achieve production scale, its financial health and around the behaviour of its maverick CEO, Elon Musk. More positively, Tesla has a very loyal customer base and in the electric car space, and a strong brand presence in particular across the US and the Middle East.
Volkswagen has impressed with its range of electric and hybrid vehicles and aims to convert all of its factories in preparation of electric car production by 2022. The brand is planning to produce 100,000 I.D. electric cars in the first year of operation. In contrast, Toyota (up 20% to US$52.3 billion), which has grown on the back of a high margin business, has been criticised for not seizing the electric car revolution early enough.
Roewe advancing fastest
Despite German autos success at the apex of industry, the fastest growing brand is China's Roewe (SAIC), which increased its brand value by 137% to US$1.2 billion. Roewe has assumed the technology previously belonging to the now-defunct Rover of the UK and developed the world's first mass-produced internet vehicle, cementing its place in both the electric and hybrid space.
Conversely, a trio of Chinese brands, Changan (down 52% to US$802 million), Haval (down 44% to US$3.8 billion) and BAIC (down 44% to US$881 million) all saw significant falls in their brand value.
Ferrari remains strongest
Aside from calculating overall brand value, Brand Finance also determines the relative strength of brands through a balanced scorecard of metrics evaluating marketing investment, stakeholder equity, and business performance. Along with the level of revenues, brand strength is a crucial driver of brand value.
Ferrari (brand value up 27% to US$8.3 billion) is the world's strongest auto brand with a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score of 94.8 out of 100. This year, Brand Finance named the Italian supercar manufacturer as the world' strongest brand, a position that it last held in 2014. Since its inception, Ferrari has remained synonymous with style and performance, enabling the brand to successfully extend into other sectors – from merchandise, such as hats and sunglasses, to theme parks, and even the Maranello Village, a Ferrari-themed hotel – without losing its appeal as a luxury brand.
Every year, leading valuation and strategy consultancy Brand Finance values the world's biggest automotive industry brands. The most valuable automotive industry brands in the world are included in the Brand Finance Automotive Industry 2019 report.
Brand value is understood as the net economic benefit that a brand owner would achieve by licensing the brand in the open market. Brand strength is the efficacy of a brand's performance on intangible measures relative to its competitors.
Additional insights, more information about the methodology, as well as definitions of key terms are available in the Brand Finance Automotive Industry 2019 report.
Brand Finance helped craft the internationally recognized standard on Brand Valuation – ISO 10668, and the recently approved standard on Brand Evaluation – ISO 20671.
Data compiled for the Brand Finance league tables and reports are provided for the benefit of the media and are not to be used for any commercial or technical purpose without written permission from Brand Finance.
Michael Josem
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Brand Finance
Shreya Hiwale
Communications Executive
M: +44 20 7389 9439
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About Brand Finance
Brand Finance is the world's leading brand valuation consultancy. Bridging the gap between marketing and finance, Brand Finance evaluates the strength of brands and quantifies their financial value to help organisations of all kinds make strategic decisions.
Headquartered in London, Brand Finance has offices in over 20 countries, offering services on all continents. Every year, Brand Finance conducts more than 5,000 brand valuations, supported by original market research, and publishes over 100 reports which rank brands across all sectors and countries.
Brand Finance is a regulated accountancy firm, leading the standardisation of the brand valuation industry. Brand Finance was the first to be certified by independent auditors as compliant with both ISO 10668 and ISO 20671, and has received the official endorsement of the Marketing Accountability Standards Board (MASB) in the United States.
Definition of Brand
Brand is defined as a marketing-related intangible asset including, but not limited to, names, terms, signs, symbols, logos, and designs, intended to identify goods, services, or entities, creating distinctive images and associations in the minds of stakeholders, thereby generating economic benefits.
Brand Strength
Brand strength is the efficacy of a brand's performance on intangible measures relative to its competitors. Brand Finance evaluates brand strength in a process compliant with ISO 20671, looking at Marketing Investment, Stakeholder Equity, and the impact of those on Business Performance. The data used is derived from Brand Finance's proprietary market research programme and from publicly available sources.
Each brand is assigned a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score out of 100, which feeds into the brand value calculation. Based on the score, each brand is assigned a corresponding Brand Rating up to AAA+ in a format similar to a credit rating.
Brand Valuation Approach
Brand Finance calculates the values of brands in its rankings using the Royalty Relief approach – a brand valuation method compliant with the industry standards set in ISO 10668. It involves estimating the likely future revenues that are attributable to a brand by calculating a royalty rate that would be charged for its use, to arrive at a 'brand value' understood as a net economic benefit that a brand owner would achieve by licensing the brand in the open market.
The steps in this process are as follows:
1 Calculate brand strength using a balanced scorecard of metrics assessing Marketing Investment, Stakeholder Equity, and Business Performance. Brand strength is expressed as a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score on a scale of 0 to 100.
2 Determine royalty range for each industry, reflecting the importance of brand to purchasing decisions. In luxury, the maximum percentage is high, while in extractive industry, where goods are often commoditised, it is lower. This is done by reviewing comparable licensing agreements sourced from Brand Finance's extensive database.
3 Calculate royalty rate. The BSI score is applied to the royalty range to arrive at a royalty rate. For example, if the royalty range in a sector is 0-5% and a brand has a BSI score of 80 out of 100, then an appropriate royalty rate for the use of this brand in the given sector will be 4%.
4 Determine brand-specific revenues by estimating a proportion of parent company revenues attributable to a brand.
5 Determine forecast revenues using a function of historic revenues, equity analyst forecasts, and economic growth rates.
6 Apply the royalty rate to the forecast revenues to derive brand revenues.
7 Discount post-tax brand revenues to a net present value which equals the brand value.
Brand Finance has produced this study with an independent and unbiased analysis. The values derived and opinions presented in this study are based on publicly available information and certain assumptions that Brand Finance used where such data was deficient or unclear. Brand Finance accepts no responsibility and will not be liable in the event that the publicly available information relied upon is subsequently found to be inaccurate. The opinions and financial analysis expressed in the study are not to be construed as providing investment or business advice. Brand Finance does not intend the study to be relied upon for any reason and excludes all liability to any body, government, or organisation.
The data presented in this study form part of Brand Finance's proprietary database, are provided for the benefit of the media, and are not to be used in part or in full for any commercial or technical purpose without written permission from Brand Finance.
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All posts tagged "jennifer lopez news"
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The NY Times just did a piece on fate of the 1964 Worlds Fair grounds. With the fair's anniversary approaching, the city is deciding what to do with the site, particularly the Pavillion and former Tent of Tomorrow. It basically comes down three options, $14 million to demolish the site, $43 million to stabilize the Pavilion as a eyesore/oddity, or $52 to restore to some of its former glory.
Surprisingly there seems to be a majority of people who want to rehabilitate the space regardless of cost, even getting an architectural firm to work on it pro bono.
That said, be careful what you wish for. I am probably one of the few people who wouldn't object to keeping the Pavillion as a ruin. Having visited the grounds and watch it degrade over 40 years, seeing structures that were so new and inspiring rust and decay, that is where I see the beauty and sadness in the Pavillion, that is why it has its power. Which it would lose if it were renovated and a Shake Shack moved it. Although, I'd take that over tearing it down, I do love me a good Salted Caramel Concrete shake.
But I don't live in Flushing or even near Queens, so I don't even claim to have much of a vote, I just wanted to write about it as an excuse to post photos I've take of the Pavillion.


What happened to IGDA San Francisco?
Browse: Home » 2007 » November » What happened to IGDA San Francisco?
Here in San Francisco we used to have a thriving game developer community gathering. Every few months, Rudy from the IGDA would organize a meeting which included an interesting speaker, and drinks afterward. Usually these events would take place at the auditorium of the Metreon, the same building which houses the Sony Playstation store. But when the IGDA office closed down here in San Francisco, the gatherings stopped. It was a confluence of events, in fact – around the same time, the Metreon building was sold to Westfield, a shopping mall developer, and perhaps the goodwill of the previous owner (Sony) dried up.
I don't care to place blame anywhere, we just need to start it up again! Last week, Charlie of Unknown Worlds held a "Postmortem" meeting, similar to Boston's "Postmortem" events, and it was fantastic. Apparently there are also San Francisco "meetup" events. But what of the format with a speaker? I miss the formal events.
At the end of this week is the IGDA's "Leadership Forum" here in San Francisco. It looks like it is going to be a great event. For those of you who are local, let's meet up to talk more about kickstarting IGDA here in San Francisco!


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Asia E-Commerce: The Outperformer, Growth Potential Unmistakable
Fitch Solutions / Retail & Consumer / Asia / Tue 06 Nov, 2018
Key View: Asia e-commerce continues its rapid expansion, with our e-commerce sales forecast for the region projecting a 14.2% increase in 2019, with an annual average increase of 14% estimated over the medium term (2018-2022). The growth trajectory of e-commerce sales in the region is a key reason why Asia tops our latest E-Commerce Index, with a score of 59.7 out of 100. Developed Asia leads the pack owing to its stable political and economic outlook, as well as high disposable incomes, while emerging Asia provides investors a large consumer base, favourable young adult demographics and consumer spending growth that will be a key component in driving growth in e-commerce sales. South East Asia remains our market to watch, with the sub-region attracting increasing investment from Chinese players. With the markets of Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore ageing rapidly, we note that e-commerce companies will need to focus on elderly-friendly platforms as well as more convenience-focused services to meet the needs of all consumers.
Important Note: Fitch Solutions offers e-commerce sales forecasts out to 2022 and has developed a Global E-Commerce Index, which quantifies e-commerce demand, consumer characteristics, political, economic and logistics and e-commerce infrastructure in order to benchmark the development outlook and measure the ease with which e-commerce players can operate or set up operations in a country. The scores are out of 100, with 100 being the highest score and so denoting the most attractive market for e-commerce investors.
Eight key themes emerge from our analysis of the Fitch Solutions E-Commerce Index for the Asia region, and we discuss each in detail below:
Asia Holds The Greatest Potential
EMs Vs DMs: Attractiveness Stemming From Opposites
South Korea Tops E-Commerce Index
China: World's Largest E-Commerce Sales Market, With Further Growth Potential
India: A Sleeping Giant No More
Malaysia Posts The Strongest Growth
Getting Convenient For The Ageing Consumer
South East Asia One To Watch
Growth Opportunities Across The Region
E-Commerce sales in the Asia region are projected to grow by 14.2% y-o-y in 2019 to reach USD1.2trn. While this marks a slight slowing in growth compared to 2018, where we estimate a year-on-year increase of 18%, we view this as a stabilising growth trajectory with the regions' developed, emerging and frontier states offering investors the chance of premiumisation, growth from a low base and first mover advantage respectively.
Our 2019 forecast places Asia in joint second place globally with Latin America, behind the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's e-commerce sales increase of 21% y-o-y. Indonesia is our Asia growth outperformer with an annual increase of 22% in its e-commerce sales projected for 2019, reaching a value of USD12.3bn for the year.
Asia's Market Potential Not To Be Ignored
Global - E-Commerce Sales & Growth By Region (USDmn, % y-o-y)
f = forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
Our view of a stabilising, but still strong growth trajectory is displayed in our medium-term forecast (2018-2022) for e-commerce sales in Asia, projected to average 14% per annum, just behind the 18% projected for MENA. Total sales figures show just how Asia dominates globally and will continue to do so, with the region's e-commerce sales projected to reach USD1.7trn by 2022, the largest regional e-commerce market globally and ahead of second-placed North America and Western Europe (NAWE), which is projected to boast sales of USD1.1trn in 2022. Asia's dominance in e-commerce sales is due mainly to China, which in 2022 is projected to account for 71.2% of Asia's total e-commerce sales.
ASIA E-COMMERCE SALES (USDMN)
2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
Australia 9,472 10,418 11,920 13,321 14,807 16,398 17,944 19,217
China 389,711 494,237 598,809 721,119 834,154 960,129 1,103,001 1,241,915
Hong Kong 3,314 3,812 4,295 4,737 5,324 5,853 6,367 6,814
India 24,233 35,623 47,735 56,175 66,271 73,012 82,720 92,144
Indonesia 5,892 6,803 8,383 10,069 12,292 14,525 16,736 19,359
Japan 112,148 130,199 147,094 163,989 173,077 182,164 190,994 199,671
Malaysia 3,069 4,113 5,326 6,886 8,278 9,769 11,329 12,931
Philippines 1,801 2,022 2,371 2,711 3,007 3,219 3,461 3,672
Singapore 4,034 4,541 5,102 5,571 6,089 6,377 6,730 7,189
South Korea 24,339 28,950 32,424 35,562 40,017 46,325 50,734 54,508
Taiwan 24,085 29,276 36,719 44,602 52,662 60,227 66,414 71,921
Thailand 2,231 2,764 3,448 4,146 4,773 5,414 6,008 6,646
Vietnam 1,882 2,076 2,453 2,925 3,425 3,944 4,487 5,004
Rest of Asia 2,204 2,367 2,519 2,722 2,970 3,210 3,412 3,589
Total Asia Pacific 606,211 754,834 906,079 1,071,813 1,224,176 1,387,356 1,566,925 1,744,580
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
E-Commerce growth prospects and the existing and projected value of e-commerce sales are key components of our E-Commerce Index, included in our E-Commerce Demand pillar, and so play a role in Asia topping the index with a score of 59.7 out of 100. Other components within the index which serve to highlight the attractiveness of the Asia e-commerce sector are the region's large population and strong consumer spending outlook. These two factors make the region attractive to consumer facing companies, regardless of whether they are 'bricks' or 'clicks' focused. Asia has two markets in the top five global rankings of the index: South Korea (first) and China (third). Additionally, Taiwan (sixth), Australia (11th), Japan (12th) and Hong Kong (14th) rank within the top 15 globally.
As noted, Asia's E-Commerce Demand pillar is the driver of the region's overall success in the index, with e-commerce sales growth projections ensuring seven out of 13 countries in Asia score above the 85th percentile for this category. The robust e-commerce sales growth in the region is coming from a low base, with the e-commerce markets in emerging Asia such as the Philippines and Vietnam still underdeveloped.
China The Only Exception To Developed Asia's Dominance
Asia - E-Commerce Index Scores (out of 100)
Note: Higher scores indicate more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
The region also performs strongly for the Consumer Characteristics pillar of the index, which measures countries demographics, from size of population to urbanisation rates and size of the youth and mass affluent class – all key components for any consumer facing company to explore. For this pillar Asia scores 62.0 out of 100, just trailing Latin America (62.4). The Asia region boasts one of the largest populations globally. Asian markets such as China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines together account for 3.17bn people, nearly half the population of the entire world. In addition to its large population, the region also has one of the most youthful demographic profiles globally. Countries such as Malaysia, India and the Philippines have almost a third of their populations falling into the young adult segment (20-39 years old), a key target group for retailers and e-commerce players.
While Asia is an outperformer and overall an attractive region for e-commerce sales potential, investors will have to navigate some challenges. The region does not score so well for the Political, Economic and Logistics and E-Commerce Infrastructure pillars of the index (58.0 and 49.6 respectively out of 100). Bureaucracy and red tape are a challenge for all types of investors seeking to enter emerging Asia and political risk continues to drag down the region, as political uncertainty exists during the election season of 2019 (Indonesia, Thailand and India are all due to go to the polls). E-Commerce infrastructure must also be invested in, with the development of e-commerce in Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and India being held back by low financial account penetration and mobile data penetration.
South Korea And China In Global Top Five
Asia E-Commerce Index Scores & Rankings
Note: Scores out of 100; higher scores = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
The Asia region can be broken up broadly into emerging Asia (made up of the large consumer base countries of China, India, Philippines and Indonesia, where consumer spending is growing from a low base) and developed Asia (where consumer spending growth is muted, but where a wealthier consumer base offers opportunities for premiumisation and is made up of markets such as Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan).
Our e-commerce sales forecasts highlight this divergence. E-Commerce sales in emerging Asia are projected to be stronger, averaging 20% annually between 2018 and 2022 although in absolute terms, and the e-commerce market is projected to be worth USD101bn in 2019 (excluding the market of China). Developed Asia will show slower growth, at 11% over the same period, but will be worth a projected USD292bn in e-commerce sales in 2019.
Stabilisation In Growth, But Emerging Asia Outpaces Developed Asia
Asia - E-Commerce Sales, % y-o-y
Note: Emerging Asia excludes China; e/f= estimate/forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
Within our E-Commerce Index's rankings for Asia, four out of the top five countries are developed Asian markets with China in second place, the only emerging market to place in the top five. Developed Asian states outperformance in the index is understandable, with countries in the sub-region already offering the key components that investors seek, namely stable economies and political regimes and well developed logistics networks, a key operating factor for the e-commerce business structure. Furthermore, the majority of consumers in developed Asia have disposable income levels to support high levels of consumption, be they online or offline and these countries have a developed level of e-commerce infrastructure to facilitate shopping online, specifically a financial account to support online and mobile purchases as well as high mobile internet penetration (at more than 90% each) to support m-commerce. Countries in developed Asia offer not just domestic opportunities, but can also serve as a base of operations for regional and international e-commerce majors, as they start to investigate opportunities in emerging and frontier Asian states.
Strong Suits Vary In Sub-Region
Asia - E-Commerce Index Scores
Source: Fitch Solutions
The emerging Asia sub-region scores well for the pillar of Consumer Characteristics (66.3), higher than that of developed Asia (57.0). As previously highlighted, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India and the Philippines have a large consumer base presenting mass-market opportunities for e-commerce majors. Furthermore, these markets also have large young adult populations (20-39 years old), making up almost a third of the total population. Young adults are the demographic group that typically have the will and ability to spend on consumer products. They are traditionally trend setters and in the case of e-commerce have a greater level of understanding of and familiarity with technology, compared with older generations.
Strong economic growth in emerging Asia is driving the development of an expanding consumer class and is another key component of our E-Commerce Index and feeds through into our e-commerce sales forecasts. This growth is, however, coming from a low base and investors seeking opportunities in emerging Asia will need to be mindful that currently opportunities are focused on mass market and essential spending. Average disposable income levels in India and the Philippines, for example, are projected to reach USD1,868 and USD2,792 respectively in 2019. The e-grocery sector is therefore likely to be an initial opportunity in emerging Asia and in 2018 we have already noted a ramp up in online grocery investment in both the Philippines and India as well as developments in China's e-grocery market.
E-GROCERY INVESTMENT RAMPS UP IN 2018
China August 2018 Alibaba
US grocery chain Kroger announced its partnership with e-commerce major Alibaba to sell its private label products in China.
Walmart and JD.com jointly invested in USD500mn in Dada-JD Daojia, an online-to-offline grocery business which is partly owned by JD.com.
Philippines August 2018 Shopee
Shopee Philippines has launched Shopee Mart, selling groceries online. A range of brands have joined the platform, including Nestlé, Unilever, Coca-Cola, Nivea, Colgate, Pampers and Garnier.
Indonesia July 2018 Grab
Ride-hailing app Grab unveiled its plans to launch a grocery delivery service, GrabFresh, in South East Asia. The service will launch in Indonesia in July 2018, through a partnership with HappyFresh, followed by Thailand and Malaysia by late 2018.
India May 2018 Walmart Walmart acquired a 77% stake in Flipkart for USD16bn and is likely to bring in online grocery delivery through Flipkart.
June 2018 Amazon
Investment an additional USD2bn into its India operations to strengthen its foothold, having already committed USD5bn to the market.
Source: Various sources, Fitch Solutions
South Korea Tops Global E-Commerce Index
While not the largest e-commerce sales market in Asia, South Korea is among the top five markets regionally, with a projected e-commerce spend of USD54.5bn in 2022, up from USD40bn in 2019, growing by 53% over this period. The country, however, tops our E-Commerce Index, both regionally and globally, with a score of 73.3 out of 100.
South Korea Outperformer Across All Categories
Note: Higher scores = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
The country's leading index position is enabled by the developed nature of its existing e-commerce market, highlighted by the propensity for the online purchases component, with the country ranked within the 90th percentile globally, the highest in Asia. More South Korean consumer are turning to online platforms for their purchases. Supporting this high propensity for online purchases is the country's robust e-commerce infrastructure, with e-commerce development benefiting from high 3G/4G mobile penetration in the country, projected to reach 98% of the total population in 2019.
Income levels in the country further support the development of e-commerce, with practically all households now falling above the middle-income segment (household disposable income of USD10,000 plus). Disposable income levels on a per capita basis in South Korea are projected to average USD29,539 in 2019. Traditional highstreet/shopping mall product offerings (food and drink, fashion, household goods and personal care products) will continue to be key in the development of e-commerce offerings in South Korea, but we note that at this income level, premium and luxury e-commerce offerings have room for growth.
Leading e-commerce players in South Korea include Coupang, Gmarket, Cjmall and Naver which sell a range of products across food, clothing and electronics. As an increasing share of consumers shop online, bricks and mortar retailers have strengthened their e-commerce strategies. The Lotte Group, for example, unveiled its plans in May 2018 to inject KRW3trn (USD2.7bn) into its e-commerce business over the next five years, integrating online malls that have been separately operated by its affiliates, into one. Mobile messaging platform Kakao which is looking to expand its e-commerce operations is reportedly looking to acquire Korea Center, which operates international shopping support site Malltail that helps Korean consumers make direct purchases from overseas sites and ships the purchased goods directly to South Korea.
Saturation and aging demographics will be a key challenge in South Korea for e-commerce investors, as it is in a number of developed states in Asia. Just 27.3% of the total population of South Korea fall into the young adult age bracket in 2019, which we have noted as key e-commerce spenders, one of the lowest young adult populations in Asia. We also note that the young adult consumer bracket faces heightened levels of unemployment and there are low levels of job creation in the country, curtailing young adults' spend levels. South Korea's e-commerce development has therefore been driven by young consumers switching from 'bricks to clicks' purchasing and 'senior surfing'. Typically embracing e-commerce is, as noted, the young adult consumer group, but in South Korea all age groups are getting online. According to South Korea's Ministry of Science, 90% of 20-50 year olds are connected and internet usage rates for those aged 60 and over were, as of 2016 (latest available data), near 50% (more than 5mn).
An obvious opportunity therefore for e-commerce investors in this aging, but senior surfing environment is to target the older generations and tailor their offerings beyond attracting the young adult consumer group. Convenience is a key demand area within e-commerce for senior surfers as well as young adults and we note that Coupang, in a bid to be a more convenient service provider, is providing more services catered to convenience for the consumer, including free returns, choice in terms of delivery location and pickup, and personalised services to ease the shopping process.
In second place in the Asia region and third globally is China, with a score in our E-Commerce Index of 69.4 out of 100. China is the single largest e-commerce market globally, with total e-commerce sales forecast at USD834bn in 2019, increasing to USD1.24trn in 2022. The sheer size of the market is highlighted by the fact that the second place market in terms of e-commerce sales globally, the US, is projected to post e-commerce sales worth USD456.9bn in 2019.
China A Market Leader
Select Countries - E-Commerce Sales (USDmn)
China's e-commerce sales growth, while still strong at a projected 16% y-o-y in 2019, is starting to stabilise, and the 2019 growth figure is slower than that of 20% y-o-y in 2018. Over the medium term (2018-2022) we project annual average growth of 15.7%. This stabilising growth highlights that the country is not developing from its previous low base, but that saturation is not yet a risk, with opportunities available across a number of e-commerce sectors.
The size of China's existing e-commerce market coupled with its double-digit growth ensures that the country receives a high score of 91.8 for its E-Commerce Demand pillar in the index. Other key attractions in China for e-commerce investors are its huge population, of which 60% is currently urbanised and which is expanding. 30% of China's total population is within the young adult consumer bracket and almost a half of the country's households now fall into the middle income bracket of earning at least USD10,000 per annum. All these components combine to give China a Consumer Characteristics pillar score of 76.8, placing it first regionally.
Being able to access this market is, however, the challenge, with two key players dominant: the domestic e-commerce majors of Alibaba Group and JD.com. A further challenge is the comparably low level of e-commerce infrastructure outside of tier one and two cities. The country as a whole still has a low level of 3G/4G subscribers and financial account penetration and this feeds into its low score of 30.3 out of 100, considerably below the regional average of 49.6 for the E-Commerce Infrastructure pillar of the index.
There are ways to navigate the e-commerce infrastructure challenge and the domestic e-commerce providers are good case studies. To tackle the low levels of financial account penetration, Alibaba and JD.com (backed by Tencent) have introduced their own financial payment service, Alipay and WeChat Pay, which allows consumers to make purchases through the platform, all without the use of credit cards.
India presents a bright and fast-growing e-commerce market, but one which will be fraught with challenges. We project India's e-commerce market to be the third largest in Asia, worth a forecast USD66.3bn in 2019 and rising up to USD92.1bn by 2022, an annual average growth of 14.1% annually between 2018 and 2022. While India started off with the same market size equivalent of more formalised e-Commerce markets South Korea and Taiwan in 2015, the Indian e-Commerce market will surpass that of both East Asian markets by 2022.
India's Online Sales Ballooning
e/f= estimate/ forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
The sheer size of the existing e-commerce market, coupled with one of the largest populations in the world, makes India an attractive investment opportunity for e-commerce companies. India scores highest for the E-Commerce Demand pillar of the E-Commerce Index (76.1). Areas of challenge for investors remain on the supply side of e-commerce, with the country scoring just 12 out of 100 for the index pillar of E-Commerce Infrastructure, dragging down the country's overall E-Commerce Index score to 56.7 out of 100, placing it 10th in the Asia region (25th globally).
The opportunities versus the challenges is seeing the opportunities win out in India's e-commerce sector, with international majors choosing to navigate the country's market, as it is just too big to ignore. The US retailer Walmart, for example, acquired a majority stake of 77% in domestic retailer Flipkart for USD16bn in May 2018. This puts Walmart head-to-head with its rival Amazon in India, with the latter entering India in 2013 and announcing in June 2018 that it would pump a further USD2bn into its India operations to strengthen its foothold, having already committed USD5bn to the market. Domestic 'bricks and mortar' companies are also realigning their strategies to include a focus on e-commerce, retail conglomerate Reliance Retail, owned by Mukesh Ambani, for example, started online sales of consumer electronics and household appliances in July 2018.
E-commerce majors are also seeking to try and solve some of the key challenges to doing e-business themselves, rather than wait for government investments in logistics infrastructure or payment service specific firms to come up with solutions. A preference for cash over cards by consumers and delivery via internal transport networks were two key challenges that e-commerce players face, but international major Amazon and domestic e-fashion retailer Myntra offer good case study solutions. Both players have employed the use of neighbourhood small stores, known as kirana stores (neighbourhood mom-and-pop stores), in India as a channel for last-mile delivery, allowing them to reduce their delivery staff or engage them for more advanced tasks, while also having a single point of delivery on transport networks.
Packages are delivered to the local stores and then store owners deliver the packages to consumers within their area (2-4km radius), using their local knowledge of the local transport network or consumers can come into the store and pick up the packages themselves. Known by Amazon as the 'I Have Space' (IHS) programme, it has grown by 40% y-o-y to 17,500 neighbourhood stores in 225 cities at the end of 2017. Flipkart-owned Myntra has expanded its 'Mensa Network' to 6,200 stores in 50 cities since it was launched in April 2017, and about 60% of its orders are fulfilled through it.
While steps have been made on the payment and delivery front by e-commerce players, poor internet speeds and low levels of mobile internet penetration are challenges and will limit e-commerce development beyond India's tier one cities. India has one of the lowest levels of 3G/4G subscribers in Asia, at just 33% of mobile subscribers. Acting as a further hindrance to e-commerce potential in India are low income levels and low credit uptake. Household disposable incomes remain low in India, with only 8% of total households in India falling into the middle-income segment (USD10,000) in 2018, limiting spending on online goods and services. We do, however, note that the entry of Jio Reliance in 2016 has pushed the price of mobile data down, and we forecast 3G/4G subscribers to pick up over the medium term owing to competitive pricing by telecom companies. India is therefore a long-term play for e-commerce players, with opportunities now if players are willing to navigate existing risks and steady growth in the future as income levels rise and e-commerce infrastructure improves across the board.
Low Mobile Data Penetration, A Challenge
Asia - 3G/4G Subscribers, % Of Total
Malaysia Posts Strongest Growth
Malaysia is currently a relatively small e-commerce sales market, with just USD8.3bn worth of sales projected in 2019, ranking it eighth regionally in our E-Commerce Index behind Indonesia, the largest market in South East Asia. Developing from a lower base, however, sees the country posting the strongest growth in the region over our forecast period (2018-2022) at 20%, a growth trajectory that will see e-commerce sales in Malaysia rise to a projected USD12.9bn in 2022.
Strongest Growth Picture In Malaysia
Asia - E-Commerce Sales Growth, % y-o-y (2018f-2022f)
f= forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
This growth outlook coupled with Malaysia's bright consumer outlook earns the country an index score of 59.9, placing it eighth regionally. We forecast the country's consumer spending to grow by an average of 5.9% annually over the medium term (2018-2022), reaching a projected level of USD296.3bn in 2022. In the short term consumer spending in Malaysia is being aided by policies introduced by the new Pakatan Harapan with the re-introduction of the less broad-base sales and service tax (SST) following a three month tax holiday as well as increasing minimum wages.
E-commerce demand in Malaysia is set to be driven by the large percentage of young consumers, with 36% of the population falling into the young adult age group. E-commerce majors already have the country on their radar, with Alibaba setting up a 'Digital Free Trade Zone' in the country in February 2018. The initiative is designed to make cross-region shipments more affordable for Malaysian small- and medium-sized companies – the majority of businesses in the country. A core element of the scheme is an electronic world trade platform (eWTP) which is designed to ease trade between Malaysian and Chinese firms. The virtual platform, due to take effect in 2019, will connect businesses, manage cargo authorisations and assist on customs.
Falling in the middle of our Asia regional rankings are the developed and ageing markets of Japan (fifth), Hong Kong (sixth) and Singapore (seventh). These markets have some of the lowest growth forecasts in the region with the average annual growth in e-commerce sales over the medium term standing at 6.0%, 9.3% and 7.1% respectively. In particular, Japan's slow growth is noteworthy, as the country is the second largest e-commerce market in Asia in terms of value (USD173bn projected for 2019).
Within the index pillars, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore all score well for Political, Economic and Logistics (65.6, 80.2 and 80.2 respectively out of 100), unsurprising considering they are developed economies. They also perform well in the E-Commerce Infrastructure pillar of the index, which measures financial account penetration and internet connectivity, areas that again are to be expected to be well developed among developed states and are a key reason why, although not in total sales, in per capita e-commerce sales all three states perform well. On a per-capita e-commerce sales (total e-commerce sales figure divided by population aged 15+) basis Japan ranks second, Hong Kong at fifth and Singapore at third out of its 13 Asian peers.
Developed Asia Markets Are Highest Per Capita E-Commerce Spenders
Asia - E-Commerce Sales Per Capita (USD)
The existing level of e-commerce development in these states is creating issues of saturation, leading to slower growth rates. In 2019 only Hong Kong offers year-on-year double-digit growth, which is a key feature of emerging Asian states, and then it is low comparative double-digit growth at 12%. Growth in Japan and Singapore for that year stands at 6% and 9% respectively.
Another issue facing existing e-commerce investors in these developed and increasingly saturated markets is that growth across the consumer facing sector will be stymied by the demographic shift of an aging population. We project Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are set to have some of the highest median ages in region, at 48, 44 and 42 years respectively in 2019.
Ageing Consumer Base Requires New Strategies
Developed Asian Markets - Median Age
e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/ forecast. Source: UN, Fitch Solutions
As highlighted above in the South Korea section, while the young adult consumer demographic is key to the embracing, uptake and growth of e-commerce, older generations, including the pensionable population (silver surfers) are increasingly shopping online. This consumer group is a more restrained spender in comparison with young adults, with a spending behaviour traditionally associated with spending less regularly as opposed to young adults who consume more frequently.
E-commerce majors will need to tailor their offerings for an ageing population to align with older generations spending behaviours. The demand for convenience that goes hand in hand with e-commerce development is not only a service sort after by young adults (working and time poor), but also for older generations, especially the pensionable population (limited mobility/dislike of travelling too far). We have already seen the demand for convenience in these markets in the brick-and-mortar retail sector with the rise and proliferation of mass grocery retail (MGR) convenience stores, and e-commerce can and already is taking this a step further by enabling consumers to buy what they need online and getting it delivered to their door in a timely manner.
Such convenience requires robust logistics, with Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore all scoring 85 and above, out of 100 for the transport network component (part of the Political, Economic & Logistics pillar) in the e-Commerce Index. We also note the short final mile journeys in the city states of Hong Kong and Singapore, where delivery times for the e-commerce sector are being reduced to just a couple of hours from order to at the door.
We note other strategies that can be employed by e-commerce players in ageing markets to better cater for the pensionable population, specifically larger on screen text, easier to navigate options, longer basket time outs and pay on delivery are all ideas to consider. A delivery solution that offers additional services such as carrying ordered goods into the home or up flights of stairs and allowing consumers to speak with a grocery representative (mirroring a more traditional shopping experience that older generations are more familiar with) if they wish as they order could all be offerings that would appeal to the pensionable consumer.
Launching a completely separate app aimed at older consumers could also be an option. For example, e-commerce major Alibaba launched an elderly-friendly Taobao app in China where older consumers' accounts can be linked straight to their childrens' accounts in order for their children to pay for their parent's purchases. The app also uses larger font sizes and less crowded interfaces, which make using the app simpler.
Languishing at the bottom of the Asia rankings in our E-Commerce Index are the South East Asian markets of the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia which taken together are projected to have e-commerce sales of just USD37.9bn in 2019. Out of these markets in South East Asia, Indonesia is the largest one with e-commerce sales reaching USD12.3bn in 2019 and rising up to USD19.4bn by 2022. With Indonesia's market size and growth potential, e-commerce sales are projected to increase by an estimated 18% per annum over the medium term, the country is already drawing interest from e-commerce majors. For example Lazada, which Alibaba has a stake in, has invested USD1.1bn in Jakarta-based e-commerce platform Tokopedia.
Indonesia The Bright Spot In South East Asia
As a sub-region we project that e-commerce sales in emerging South East Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia) will grow by 15% per annum over the medium term and so although e-commerce is developing from a low base, investors will benefit from first mover advantage. This market is increasingly being contested by the Chinese e-commerce majors Alibaba and JD.com. Alibaba's Lazada has not only focused on Indonesia, but has operations in Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. JD.com has also sought to develop its footprint, with investments in Pomelo Fashion and Go-Jek. The company formed a joint venture with Thailand's Central Group to launch an e-commerce platform in August 2018 and acquired Vietnam's Tiki.vn in January 2018.
We note that for reach into other South East Asia markets, the developed e-commerce market of Singapore can act as a base of operations to then springboard into the region. US e-commerce giant Amazon is testing this strategy, launching its first service Amazon Prime Now in Singapore in July 2017, a move that not only enables it to break into Singapore's high value e-commerce sector, but also offers it a base from which it can explore other opportunities in South East Asia.
Singapore The Springboard For Expansion
South East Aia - Political, Economic & Logistics Pillar Component Scores
Note: SEA = South East Asia. Source: Fitch Solutions
Other major e-commerce players like Alibaba have also increased their investment in Singapore and have used their existing operations in the country to launch offerings into other markets in South East Asia. Alibaba raised its stake to 14.4%, from 10.2%, in Singapore's national postal company Singpost, which offers dedicated logistics and delivery services across South East Asia. Internet-related services and products company Tencent invested USD550mn in Singapore online gaming and e-commerce firm Garena, which has since rebranded itself as Sea. Sea is looking to expand into the fast-growing Indonesian e-commerce market by building infrastructure in the country.
This article from Fitch Solutions Macro Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2019 Fitch Solutions Group Limited.
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