I've listened to Kotkin before, and his ability to synthesize huge events over large periods of time, and then convey them to 'the average listener' (me! ) is both remarkable as it is informative and entertaining. I've listened to the first half and will save the rest for later due to time constraints. Only having been a casual observer of Putin's rise to power, I'm struck by his ability to shapeshift according to the prevailing circumstances. It is creditable yet darkly dangerous; the results we now see in plain sight as the curtain is pulled back on quite an astonishing regime, which has effectively  neutered most threats to its continued survival. Nothing is set in stone and Putin will make mistakes, but I feel we are witnessing a leader who is not desperate but confident enough within his power to reveal his hand, and boldly to say to his enemies and detractors, "What are you going to do about it? I'm here. Come and get me if you dare. ",(reply>), @Elektrotehnik  @Elektrotehnik   You make interesting, insightful and salient points. Thank you. I'm intrigued by you last point about 'end of winters' being a potential opportunity for leadership change. Has this happened regularly enough for it to be a pattern, and if so, are there underlying reasons for this? Don't worry if you don't have time to reply. I'm just curious.,(reply>), Regarding who can change the Putin regime’s direction:<br><br>Low-level state officials that recieve too little bribe money (for their liking) AND/ OR very patriotic Russians that see Russia collapsing (when sanctions really hit) are the ones most potent in changing the Putin regime, besides disease or an assasination coup taking Putin off his pedistal.<br>Combined with the effects of war, this way, the regime might be in peril.<br><br>Optimistically, I’d hope it happens in the early autumn time-frame, realisticaly 1 to 3 years after the start of war; depending on the effectiveness of sanctions, the extent of war failure of Russia &amp; geopolitics on the world stage 🤷‍♂️<br><br>Ends of winters can also be especially potent to rallying people for political change, as seen in previous Russian regime changes ^^,(reply>), I was listening to a Kotkin interview earlier and, as usual, he made a great point.<br>paraphrasing, something along the lines of "maintaining an authoritarian system is simple, because all it needs to worry about is eliminating any alternative"