There are many factors to make human level of inteligence even more unlikely which is not reperesented in that equation. For example the position of Jupiter is very unlikely and unusual but it helps a lot to shield the Earth from asteroid impacts. The asteroid hit itself that gave mammals the opportunity to evolve further and undistrubed. A nearby supernova could destory or disturb the whole planet or planetsystem If a sun or a rogue planet crosses the solar system planets could be thrown out of their own orbit. The Sun itself could produce solar flares or radiation bursts which could destroy civlisations red dwarfs for example are very active and could wipe out the atmopshoere of a planet even if it is in the habitable zone. But even so if technological advance (would ) go on like now after 1000 years "humanity" doesn't exist anymore we become completely digital beings in very small cubes orbiting the sun and simulating everything a human could possibly want so there is no need to "go out"  You get more data for your digital universe by microscopic drones all over the place scannaing the "base reality".Those digital humans will become very alien like in behavior logic and technology. It is possible that our solar system already gave birth to a digital species but we are yet unaware to communicate because they are hidden in small phone sized cubes orbiting the sun and the "aliens" we see like the tic tac are their drones gathering new input for their digital universe. When digital experience can simulate the whole range of our human experience (which is digital in its outcome but with analog biological hardware in my opinion) people even could forget they are digital.