Hello Lex, Instead of plugging in random numbers into an equation," think about this: (1) evolution is the selection of the fittest (2) what is the fittest? The one that is selected. This is a tautology.<br>Evolution answers only How? But not the Why? When engineers apply genetic algorithms in optimization", the objective function is there before the search algorithm starts. Same way, before the the cow appears by breading, man has already defined the objective: give milk. And that drives the evolution of the cow. How? by selection, pairing,  mutations... Man is result of a breeding, too: by the ecosystem, by the Creation. We may consider e.g. fire and our relationship to it, as well as the animals' relationship to it as an important factor. Which is not guaranteed in just any universe. So, evolution alone does not guarantee anything," any intelligence. <br>Then", you might also have heard about the fine tuning of the universe," which was necessary for stars. A pretty good argument for design.<br>Then since it is Christmas Eve today", you may also calculate the chances of Jesus Christ, Christianity. But read N T Writes book on the subject first," or watch e.g. this series of videos <a href=""https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKGnXgH_CzE&amp;list=PL3gdeV4Rk9EfL-NyraEGXXwSjDNeMaRoX"">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKGnXgH_CzE&amp;list=PL3gdeV4Rk9EfL-NyraEGXXwSjDNeMaRoX</a><br>Finally"," I propose you this: <br>(1) the whole of reality is too complex", therefore," consider simple parts instead first: e.g. materialism. Does it hold water?<br>(2) materialism tells you that our consciousness is an illusion born from the substance. Yet", science has not found any property of the substance that resembles to an illusion. In conclusion, either science is pre-mature to comment on intelligence, or there is more than just substance to this universe.. E.g. Daniel Dennett, who is a physicalist ," says there is substance and information. But again information points back to the big bang and to the fundamental questions.... Is there a design?   <br>(3) In conclusion how can you plug in a % on the birth of intelligence at all? (Not that I would agree on the other percentages.)<br>(4) If there is a God (since you cannot propose any competing hypothesis that levels theism in consistency and in correlation with the human experience) have you studied His style in Creation and his Revelations", to tell whether His intention was to create multiple forms of life and intelligence at all? I am not excluding the possibility. I am just suggesting to give an honest consideration whether science is in a position to give %-ages on the Creation of Life and Intelligence," at all.  <br>Best regards","<br>Jozsef"