"It's not about predicting how a transformative technology will be like in the future at all (e.g. <a href=""https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIrEM2FbOLU&amp;t=10m52s"">10:52</a> - describing Uber in the 1950s)", it's about the effects of technology (in AGI) that effectively equals or surpasses human intelligence. All technologies (including Uber) thus far have basically been narrow AI automatons at best, never one about AGI that can think for itself as its own species, and effectively by definition equal (very quickly becoming superior) to homo sapiens.