I think you're assumptions about linearly increasing development cost are flawed. The ubiquity of mature, ready to use game engines, the capabilities (and similarities) of modern gaming platforms and the shift to digital distribution have <b>reduced</b> development costs, not increased them.<br><br>I think what we're seeing with the AAAs is franchise fatigue and an inability to innovate and take risks. Their games typically have a  lot <b>more</b> content than ever before but the player-base is no longer impressed by simple graphical upgrades and larger-than-life experiences, especially when they come at the expense of single player campaigns, story and world building.<br><br>Another problem is that gaming has been dumbed down. What used to be a rich landscape of distinct genres has been distilled into a trend of mediocre 1st or 3rd person walking simulators with some puzzle and RPG elements thrown in. Games all look the same and gamers have been trained to expect the same brainless mechanics. The publishers and developers have boxed themselves into a corner in expecting us to buy the same experience over and over.