"Progress disappoints in the short run, surprises in the long run" -- I think this is probably exactly right regarding autonomous driving.<br><br>Innovations compound on each other, so solutions tend to accelerate when they're being developed.  A great past example is the human genome project.  It took them 7 years to get roughly 1% of the genome decoded.  7 years after that, they were 100% finished.<br><br>My guess is car autonomy will go in that sort of pattern.