0.2% in the population is a misleading stat and completely contradicted by his own figures on covid mortality. For example, the UK has a population of 67,000,000 - which implies if EVERYONE caught covid pre-vaccination then we'd have only had 134,000 deaths (we've already had 149,000). <br><br>He says, fatality is 0.2% age 50 and doubles every 7 years (this actually seems about right). If that is the case, then 80 year old with a pre-existing condition (basically every 80 year old will have that) has at least a 6.4% chance of dying. That means we'd be looking at over 204,000 deaths in that cohort alone (an obvious underestimate as many in that group will have a greater than 6.4%). <br><br>According Jay, a 64 year old has a 1.6% chance of dying. We have 9.1 million aged 65-80 in the UK. This means if everyone in the 65-80 cohort had no more than a 1.6% chance of dying (again a huge under-estimate), we would expect 145,000 deaths. We've now got very conservative estimate of 349,000 deaths for the over 65s using the figures he gave us. We have not even looked at the approx 55 million people under age 65 and are already approaching 3 times the figure he is claiming for overall mortality.<br><br>I can't be bothered estimating for the rest of the population, but I suspect I'd come close to the 0.8% average figure that has been touted by most leading authorities. A figure 4 times higher than the one he's claiming.<br><br>I think in the UK and the USA, people don't actually realise how old and unhealthy (and therefore vulnerable) their populations are and don't realise how all those people flooding into hospital at the same time would impact the healthcare system.<br><br>I'm fine with people arguing against lockdowns etc. - maybe there are better ways to slow community spread? - but when such people can't even admit the seriousness of the problem they undermine their case rather than strengthen it. Jay is presumably an intelligent guy, so it seems to me he's deliberately playing down the problem we faced pre-vaccination.