Analyst Warns Mbeki Exit could Weaken Democracy in South Africa | Voice of America - English
Analysts are expressing concern over the situation in South Africa, where President Thabo Mbeki has formally offered his resignation. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) pressured Mr. Mbeki to step down before his second term ends next year. This follows a judge?s suggestion that the president may have interfered in a corruption investigation to ensure the prosecution of ANC leader Jacob Zuma, a political foe of Mr. Mbeki.
?Shock? and ?uncertainty? are just two of the wordsProfessor Pieter Fourie uses when describing the current situation in SouthAfrica, where citizens yesterday watched their president give a televisionaddress in which he announced he?d soon leave office. Fourie, the author of a number of books on Mr. Mbeki andhis policies, says such a momentous and unprecedented event in the country?shistory has ?understandably? given South Africans cause for concern about theirfuture. ?Opposition parties, especially, are saying that Mbeki?ssacking?by his party has been a big mistake. Then again, some regular, normalSouth Africans on the street are saying that it?s a good thing and that thepresident had it coming,? says the head of the University of Johannesburg?spolitical science department. Headds that the manner of Mr. Mbeki?s resignation ? effectively being ?forced?from office by the party he?s supported since boyhood ? is indeed anignominious end to Mr. Mbeki?s reign as the president of one of the mostpowerful countries in the developing world, with the continent?s largesteconomy. Mr.Mbeki is praised for presiding over economic growth in South Africa but isaccused by many South Africans of creating a new black economic elite anddistancing himself from the country?s poor majority. Analysts say while theeconomy has undoubtedly grown under Mbeki, this growth hasn?t filtered down tothe masses of people who continue to live in dilapidated shack-lands andstruggle for daily survival. Zuma is accused by state prosecutors of accepting numerousbribes from foreign companies in connection with an arms deal. Fourie says it?simportant to remember that, as Zuma?s supporters revel in Mr. Mbeki?s fall fromgrace, that high court judge Chris Nicholson, who last Friday dismissed thecorruption case against their hero, did so on a technicality and did notabsolve Zuma. Nevertheless, says Fourie, it?s now increasingly likely that theANC leader will escape prosecution for corruption and will eventually becomeSouth Africa?s next president. Mr. Mbeki is in many respects the architect of his owndemise, says the analyst. He explains, ?When Mr. Mbeki fired Zuma from his post asSouth Africa?s deputy president in 2005, after one of Zuma?s advisors was foundguilty of soliciting bribes on his behalf, the president set the scene for deeppolitical conflict and unwittingly created a precedent for his own removal fromoffice.? In now deciding to pressure Mr. Mbeki to go, he says, theANC has ?ironically? used the same argument against him that he used againstZuma three years ago. ?There was no legal case against Jacob Zuma; his financialadvisor was simply accused and found guilty of fraud. And then Mbeki himselfsaid it would be inappropriate for Zuma to stay on as deputy president. Now theZuma camp (in the ANC) says that as the judge implicated Mbeki in politicalconspiracies?it is now inappropriate for Mbeki to remain as president of thecountry.? South Africa?s Archbishop Desmond Tutu has criticized such?tit-for-tat? and ?retributive? politics. However, Fourie is convinced that ?we should look to Mbekiand the flaws of the man himself? when analyzing the present situation in SouthAfrica. ?We had in Mbeki a supposedly intellectually brilliantleader, but someone who came to be completely out of touch with people ? notonly in the rest of the country, but throughout his ruling party. He has beenaccused of being intellectually conceited and so self-assured that he expectsthe people to trust him implicitly (no matter what). In the process, he lostcontact with grassroots support.? Fourie says there?s evidence of this in a ?series ofdenialist (sic) tendencies? that Mr. Mbeki has demonstrated. The South African president has been widely condemned fordisagreeing with mainstream scientific opinion that the human immunodeficiencyvirus (HIV) causes AIDS. As a direct result of this conviction, the president?spolicies denied anti-retroviral treatment to South Africans. Mr. Mbeki alsoemployed a health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who advocated a dietconsisting of fresh vegetables rather than anti-retroviral drugs to treat HIV.AIDS activists have thus accused Mr. Mbeki of being responsible for thepremature deaths of thousands of South Africans, by either denying them treatmentor misinforming them about the possible benefits of certain medication. Mr.Mbeki has also received international condemnation for his policy of ?quietdiplomacy? as a way to deal with Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe and end theeconomic and political chaos in South Africa?s neighbor. Many say Mr. Mbeki?salleged favoritism towards Mr. Mugabe has prolonged the suffering ofZimbabweans, despite optimism following the recent Mbeki-brokered power-sharingpact signed in Harare. Fourieis convinced that it?s ?naïve? and ?disingenuous? to sell Zimbabwe?s recentpower-sharing agreement as proof of Mr. Mbeki?s foreign policy success in theregion, despite the fact that he has been lead mediator in the impasse for anumber of years. ?Theagreement has been touted by the Mbeki camp as an example of how quietdiplomacy has worked, but in reality what we saw was the outcome of amonth-and-a-half on intense mediation by the lieutenants of Thabo Mbeki, andMbeki simply swooping in to co-sign the deal.? Fouriesays the ANC is ?smart? in deciding to continue deploying Mr. Mbeki to theongoing negotiations in Harare, ?because by all indications the deal isunraveling. There is no final agreement on the cabinet and senior politicalgovernance in Zimbabwe, and Mbeki will probably have to jump in there to try tosave the situation.? Duringhis tenure, Mr. Mbeki also repeatedly denied the extreme severity of crime inSouth Africa. Allthese factors, says Fourie, offered evidence that the president had ?completelylost touch with reality.? ?Hesurrounded himself with ?yes? men and women, and he?s now paying the price forthat failure.? Fouriedescribes Mr. Mbeki?s ouster as a ?great tragedy.? ?Wehad someone with so much promise ten years ago, who did a lot of good instabilizing the (economy) in this country, someone who was a thinker, who cameup with the idea of a continent-wide African Renaissance, which led to the (NewPartnership for African Development). He did very good things in terms of theprofile of the continent, was invited to (World Economic Forum) and G8meetings, but who has become so?self-assured that his own conceitedness has ledto his downfall.? Asfor the immediate future, Fourie expects the ANC to be ?magnanimous and to makesounds regarding national unity in order to assuage the local financial marketsespecially.? Zuma has immediately set about assuring investors thatSouth Africa?s economic policies will remain ?stable, progressive andunchanged.? ANC sources have also named the party?s deputy president, KgalemaMotlanthe ? a close ally of Zuma?s but regarded by many analysts as a sensiblechoice ? to replace Mr. Mbeki until elections next year, which Fourie says Zumawill likely win. ?Make no mistake, Mr. Mbeki?s ouster?. has now opened theroad up for Jacob Zuma to take over.? In terms of the legal position of Mr. Zuma, South Africa?sNational Prosecuting Authority (NPA) says it will appeal the judgment thatdismissed the corruption case against Zuma. But Fourie says the NPA is ?likelyto be unsuccessful. There will be immense political pressure to drop the legalcase.?