Poll Shows Women Voters Shifting Support to McCain-Palin | Voice of America - English
Republican presidential nominee John McCain has shaken up the race for the White House and pumped new excitement into his campaign by choosing Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate.  VOA Correspondent Cindy Saine takes a look at a potential "Palin effect" on the November 4 election.
Several polls taken after theRepublican National Convention show John McCain's popularity ratingsare surging upward, and some show him holding a slight lead over hisopponent, Barack Obama. One poll in particular may be causingconcern for the Obama campaign. A new /ABC News surveyfinds McCain is now ahead of Obama by 12 points among white women, 53to 41 percent. Last month Senator Obama held an eight pointlead over McCain among white women voters in the same poll,representing a stunning, 20 point shift among that group. Thereis similar movement, but not quite as dramatic, in another pollreleased this week. A new NBC/poll shows Obama'slead among women shrinking from 14 points a month ago to just fourpoints now. Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow with the conservativeAmerican Enterprise Institute, and an expert on U.S. politics andpublic-opinion polls, says it is not clear whether this major shift inopinion will last, but it is clear that a lot of American women canrelate to Palin, a 44-year-old mother of five. "But I also think thatSarah Palin connected with a lot of ordinary women voters, with herspeech at the convention, with the discussions of her family, and someof the struggles and ups and downs that family has had." Palinemerged at the Republican National Convention as a virtual unknown onthe national stage, and her family has played a prominent role in herintroduction to the country. She has a five-month-old son with withDown's Syndrome, and a 17-year-old daughter who is pregnant and plansto marry the baby's father. Janice Crouse, with thesocially-conservative Christian political action group Concerned Womenfor America, says she believes a majority of American women willsupport Palin in the election because they agree with her on importantissues. "The majority of American women are very common sense people. You know, they support traditional American values, they know the valueof marriage, they know the value of family, they know the value oflife. And they admire someone who puts feet to their beliefs, who isauthentic, who is real, who is not just spinning things for a politicalbenefit," Palin says she opposes abortion even if the motheris a victim of rape or incest and some analysts say her views holdstrong appeal for social conservatives, both men and women whoconstitute an important base of the Republican Party. But they saymany other women will have trouble with her views on social issues oncethey get to know her better. ABC analyst Matthew Dowd sayswhen there is a sudden and large shift in polls such as with Palin, itis usually temporary. "Usually when you have swings this large and thisquick, they do not stick for a long time. They are quick, becausesomething has changed fundamentally, and then people take a second lookat this," he said. There was a similar phenomenon in 1984, whenDemocratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale nominated GeraldineFerraro as his vice presidential candidate. She was the first woman tobe nominated as vice president on a major U.S. party ticket, Palin isthe second. Mondale's pick gave him a sudden 15-point boost inthe polls, but within weeks, the numbers returned to where they werebefore. Mondale ended up losing the election in a landslide to RonaldReagan. The Palin phenomenon has definitely caught the Obamacampaign by surprise. Obama acknowledged that Palin has energizedRepublicans, but said he could not believe that voters would beingswinging back and forth "this wildly." "What we are going to have to dois see how things settle out over the next few weeks, when people startexamining who is actually going to deliver on the issues that peoplecare about." With less than eight weeks to go to the November 4election, women voters may determine whether Governor Sarah Palin is ashooting star or a political force to be reckoned with now and in thefuture.