Could Ukraine Become Russia's Next Target? | Voice of America - English
The former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine are allies engaged in similar attempts to establish democratic rule, to join NATO and realign themselves with the West, much to the displeasure of Russia.  During the conflict in Georgia, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko prohibited ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet that are engaged off the Georgian coast from returning to port on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula without Kyiv's official permission.
In 2007, Public School Number 41 inTbilisi was named after Mykhailo Hrushevsky, president of theshort-lived Ukrainian People's Republic in 1917 and 1918. Ukraine'scurrent President, Viktor Yushchenko flew to Tbilisi to join hisGeorgian friend and fellow head of state, Mikheil Saakashvili, in theschool's re-dedication ceremony. Both men rode to power followingmass pro-democracy protests that came to be known as coloredrevolutions. Georgia's was the Rose Revolution and Ukraine's was theOrange. Accordingly, the Hrushevsky School was painted orange. Moscowhas not disguised its displeasure with the colored revolutions andrefuses to deal with Mr. Saakashvili. On Tuesday, President Yushchenkoagain flew to Tbilisi, accompanied this time by the presidents ofPoland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Mr. Yushchenko says thetask of the presidential mission is to show that Georgia is not alone,that in this age the power of reason should not be replaced by the ironfist. The Ukrainian leader says the five presidents came to Georgia toprohibit the of killing people and the execution of the country. Ukrainianmilitary analyst Oleksiy Melnyk, of the Razumkov Center think tank inKyiv, told VOA the Polish, Ukrainian and Baltic leaders do notnecessarily agree with all of the actions undertaken in the conflict byGeorgian leadership, but notes they risked their own physical securityto send a signal to Moscow. Melnyk says Moscow should see thepresidential show of solidarity in Tbilisi as a serious signal thatRussian foreign policy of establishing control over former Sovietrepublics and its neighborhood achieves a totally opposite effect. Theanalyst says Russia is surrounding itself with nations that are, at aminimum, not friendly and perhaps even hostile toward Moscow. OleksiyMelnyk says Russian military actions in Georgia could lead the majorityof Ukrainians who now oppose to their country's NATO membership toreassess their opinions about the respective security threats posed bythe Western alliance and Russia. The chairman of the EuropeanIntegration Forum in Tbilisi, Soso Tsiskarishvili, agrees with Melnyk'sassessment, but notes Ukraine is better prepared to meets NATO'sdemocratic standards for membership than Georgia. Tsiskarishvilisays Ukraine's two recent parliamentary elections and Georgia'spresidential and parliamentary contests differ from one another likeheaven and earth in terms of democratic and transparent procedures. ButRussian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer cautions that Ukraine couldbe Russia's next target as part of what he says is a grand Kremlin planfor the partial restoration of Russian greatness. "Russiaright now wants at least half of Ukraine to be annexed," saidFelgenhauer. "Vladimir Putin talked about that rather openly at theNATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in April. Ukraine will disintegrateinto two halves, and we want the eastern half, including of course,first and foremost, Crimea." Felgenhauer says Ukraine'soverwhelming vote for independence in 1991, which included a majorityof Crimeans, means nothing to Kremlin rulers, who the analyst says donot respect the will of even their own people. Nonetheless, theanalyst says Russia is tied down in Georgia and will not make anyimmediate military moves against Ukraine. He notes, however, thatRussia's Black Sea Fleet, which leases naval facilities in Sevastopolin Crimea, will likely steam back to port in defiance of a Ukrainianpresidential order that it must first ask for Ukrainian permission. "IfRussia openly challenges Ukrainian sovereignty, I think that Ukrainewill then turn to the West and say, 'you know guys, they're challengingour sovereignty with their fleet.' And this will happen without anykind of use of arms, or anything made in anger. Ukraine right now,apparently wants to make the threat to its sovereignty obvious tooutside powers," said Felgenhauer. Felgenhauer says Moscow'svision of the world is that of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; one inwhich Russia and Washington share spheres of influence. The analystnotes that Russia withdrew its bases from Cuba and Vietnam, expectingthe United States to stay away from what Moscow thought was to be itssphere of influence. He says Moscow felt betrayed when Washingtonbegan supporting colored revolutions among Russia's neighbors. ButSoso Tsiskarishvili points to this week's visit to Tbilisi bypresidents of five countries that border Russia as a sign that they donot trust the Kremlin.