Georgian Crisis 'Decisive Moment' in Russia-West Ties | Voice of America - English
Georgia is emerging battered but defiant from its recent military confrontation with Russia.  Russian troops still control significantly more Georgian territory than they did a month ago and no one can answer the key question:  How can the occupiers be forced to leave? But Georgian officials are openly gleeful over Moscow's diplomatic isolation, as its friends decline to join the Kremlin in recognizing the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions.
Georgia's fate is still a very bigquestion mark. Russia has issued a blunt challenge to the West to stayout of its Caucasus backyard. And there are serious doubts that Europeand the United States have the political will to make the Russians gohome. The former president of Georgia's parliament, NinoBurjanadze, who now is a strong government critic, maintains it was amistake to challenge Russia's provocative military actions in thebreakaway South Ossetia region in early August. "I think we alreadylost the war, and I'm afraid there is no military solution of thissituation," he said. But Burjanadze says Russia has also emergeda loser. "When I said we Georgians are not winners in this conflict, itdoes not mean Russia has won," he said. "Russia showed once again itsreal face, that it preferred to be the gendarme ininternational relations and not to be a distinguished member of theinternational community that will be respected." PresidentMikheil Saakashvili's political rivals say he will have a lot ofexplaining to do if and when the crisis subsides. In the short term,almost all agree that the Kremlin's intense dislike for Mr. Saakashvilihas made his position at home more secure. But in the longer term,political analyst Archil Gegeshidze says Russia will surely succeed increating internal political instability in Georgia. "In duecourse, I expect there will be some new waves of mass protests here inthe country," he said. "To what extent this government will be able tosurvive those protests remains to be seen. But it is obvious therewill be some internal political instability." Nonetheless,Georgians are increasingly hopeful that the final outcome of theirconfrontation with Russia will be to their advantage. For one thing,Western countries that until recently had all but forgotten theCaucasus are again recognizing Georgia's critical strategic importance. The European Union is holding a summit to discuss how torespond to Russia's intervention. The United States has pouredtens of millions of dollars of humanitarian assistance and uncountedmilitary aid into Georgia, and it has sent several senior officials toTbilisi, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and DemocraticParty vice presidential candidate Joe Biden. Vice President DickCheney is expected to arrive next week. Georgia's minister forEuropean integration, David Darchiashvili, says the crisis has promptedthe government to accelerate its move to embrace, and be embraced by,western institutions. "Until recently the top priority was NATOintegration," he said. The EU is not as high a priority. But now whathas happened, since the EU is playing the very important role, Europe'sweight will increase in Georgia, and Georgia will be heading towardEuropean integration more seriously." Darchiashvili says thegovernment is becoming increasingly confident that it did the rightthing in confronting Russia, and that it will be able to defend itselfagainst domestic critics. "I am ready to answer any questions,"he said. "I do not see any major breach from our side, the principleswe stayed for years. We do not want to confront Russia with it's hugeresources, but it's Russia that wants to reconquer Georgia. So weshould not defend ourselves?" Officials here have hardly beenable to contain their glee at the diplomatic rebuff Russia hassuffered, as close friends such as Belarus, Cuba and Venezuela haveshied away from endorsing Moscow's recognition of independence for thebreakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. NationalSecurity Director Alexander Lumaya says this kind of internationalresponse could force Moscow to think twice about its actions. "Russiafound itself close to complete international isolation," he said. "It'snot something they feel comfortable with. So the path of developmentof this situation and whether they will apply this invasion pattern toother countries in the neighborhood would depend on how strongly theinternational community would pursue the line it has taken." Abig test comes on Monday when European Union leaders are scheduled tolaunch what is expected to be a full-scale review of relations withRussia. While news reports from Paris indicate there will be nodecision on sanctions, the meeting is giving Georgians hope that theKremlin will be made to answer for its invasion. Analyst ArchilGegeshidze sees Russia's move in Georgia as payback to the West for theKremlin's perceived humiliation on issues such as Western recognitionof Kosovo's independence, and expanding the NATO alliance up to theRussian border. Gegeshidze calls this a "moment of truth". "This is a very decisive moment. Either Russia succeeds and the West fails, or West succeeds and Russia fails," he said. Georgianssay if Europe and the United States can muster the political will tostand up to Russia, and if Georgia is soon invited to begin the processof joining NATO, and if sufficient aid arrives to start the process ofrebuilding, the outcome of the current crisis could be decidedlypositive. But some analysts say those are some big 'ifs.'