Russia-Georgia Conflict Puts Turkey in Vulnerable Position | Voice of America - English
The Russia-Georgia conflict has put Turkey in a tight spot.  Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist Georgia? Or will it choose Russia which also shares a Black Sea coast with Turkey?
Turkey has been playing the roleof mediator between various parties in the region: the United Statesand Iran; Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan. But as more U.S.warships pass through the narrow Turkish-controlled strait into theBlack Sea to deliver aid to Georgia, a time for choosing sides may havearrived. Last weekend, U.S. warships used the Turkish straits todeliver aid to Georgia. A Russian official condemned the move andwarned Turkey it was obliged to enforce the rules of an agreement thatgives a 21 day limit on any warship from a country that does not borderthe Black Sea. The Turkish government is responsible forpolicing the 32-kilometer Bosporus, the only route for ships travelingto the Black Sea, under the Montreux agreement of 1936. The Bosporusprovides sole access for ships to Georgia's Black Sea ports. International relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul's Bilgi University said this has put Turkey in a precarious position. "Turkeyis a NATO member and is also a neighbor of Georgia's and greatsupporter of Georgia both economically and militarily," he said. "AndTurkey controls the passage from and to the Black Sea. Thereforewhatever happens next Turkey is going to find itself impacted by thedevelopments." Also at stake is Turkey's trade relations withRussia. Turkey's trades more goods with Russia than any other country,mostly because of Turkey's dependence on Russian gas. "We havevery good economic relations with Russia," said Ozel. "Our trade isover $10 billion and we are overly dependent on Russian gas at64 percent and 40 percent for Russia oil." Turkey has beentrying to boost trade with Moscow as it struggles with a currentaccount deficit that's growing as energy costs soar. But Russiahas introduced new custom regulations which, according to the Turkishtrade minister Kursad Tuzmen, could cost Turkey as much as $3 billion.Tuzmen attacked the regulations as political, saying Moscow may bepunishing it for allowing the U.S. ships to pass through the Bosporus. Tuzmansaid that on September 1 Turkey will impose curbs on Russian exportsand withdraw support for its membership of the World Trade Organization. Buta Turkish diplomatic source said that Ankara is determined not to bedrawn into the conflict. Much of the Turkish media is also calling fora neutral stance. With the Turkish prime minister visitingMoscow and Tbilisi, Ankara is now working hard to secure peace. SoliOzel doesn't believe such efforts have much chance of success, butstill thinks they are important. "For the moment I see it as anempty shell and as a good will gesture. If anything comes out of itwill be good, and if nothing comes out of it no one will blame Turkey,"said Ozel. "It is better than what the Europeans can and would doanyway." This weekend Georgia's foreign minister, EkaTkeshelashvili, is due to visit Turkey, while his Russian counterpart,Sergey Lavrov, is expected next week. While few people give littlechance of any breakthrough, experts say the real motive behind suchefforts is for Turkey to balance its relations between Russia and theWest. But with another U.S. warship headed to the Black Sea thisweekend, those efforts are predicted to get increasingly difficult.