text: Chapter 4
  4-72. The first phase is latent and incipient. During this phase, activities include the emergence of
  insurgent leadership, creation of initial organizational infrastructure, training, acquisition of resources, and
  political actions, such as organizing protests. A group that eventually becomes members of an insurgency
  may simply be a legitimate political group at this stage. Governmental actions and changes in society can
  transform political groups into insurgencies.
  4-73. The second phase is guerrilla warfare. In this phase, successful insurgents use small-unit tactics to
  attack security forces while continuing ongoing political efforts. Their goal is to undermine the
  government’s legitimacy and replace the government’s legitimacy with the population seeing the
  insurgency as legitimate. In this stage, insurgencies may begin performing limited governmental functions
  for the population in areas they control.
  4-74. The third phase is war of movement. During this phase, an insurgency may be trying to overthrow a
  government or trying to force the withdrawal of an occupying power. For success, an insurgency does not
  necessarily need to transform into a conventional military, but it must position itself to defeat the
  government or occupying power. However, this phase may not be needed. In some cases, all an insurgency
  must do is create a continual problem that cannot be solved and wear down the patience of the
  counterinsurgents. This is especially true when the counterinsurgents are directed by an outside power. This
  phase is characterized by increased military capability, popular support, logistics capacity, and territorial
  control.
  4-75. Many successful insurgencies go through a process similar to these three phases, but this is not a
  uniform rule. Some insurgencies, for example, form rapidly and displace a government quickly. Figure 4-1
  provides a model for understanding the possible evolution of insurgencies. This model provides a
  simplification of reality in order to understand and analyze a phenomena. A phase-like evolution of an
  insurgency tends to create a strong political and military organization with deep roots in a society. Such
  organizations are difficult to undermine. However, historically the most likely outcome of an insurgency is
  its rapid defeat. These insurgencies demonstrate little phasing beyond the beginning of violence followed
  by the quick defeat of the insurgency. (See figure 4-1.)