text: ________________________________________________________________________________ FM 2-22.3
  • Induction is the process of formulating hypotheses on the basis of
  observation or other evidence. It can best be characterized as a
  process of discovery when the analyst is able to establish a
  relationship between events under observation or study. Induction,
  or plausible reasoning, normally precedes deduction and is the type
  of reasoning analysts are required to perform most frequently.
  • Deduction is the process of reasoning from general rules to particular
  cases. The analyst must draw out, or analyze, the premises to form a
  conclusion. Deductive reasoning is sometimes referred to as
  demonstrative reasoning because it is used to demonstrate the truth
  or validity of a conclusion based on certain premises.
  ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
  12-16. There are three basic analytical techniques and automated tools that
  are particularly useful to single-discipline HUMINT analysis. Each of these
  tools takes fragmented bits of information and organizes them to create a
  chart or graph that can easily be read. They are the time event chart,
  matrices, and the link analysis diagram. HUMINT collectors and analysts
  can use automated computer programs such as Analyst Notebook or Crime
  Link to produce these tools or they can create them on paper. Computer
  programs are faster to use than previous methods and have the added
  advantage of producing a product that can be shared easily and rapidly over
  networks and portals. The diagrams in this chapter represent the tools that
  can be produced using automated programs.
  Time Event Chart
  12-17. A time event chart is a method for placing and representing individual
  or group actions in chronological form. It uses symbols to represent events,
  dates, and the flow of time. Normally, triangles are used to depict the
  beginning and end of the chart and may be used within the chart to indicate
  particularly critical events such as an ideological shift or change. Rectangles,
  used as event nodes, store administrative data and indicate significant
  events or activities. Drawing an “X” through the event node may highlight
  noteworthy or important events. Each of these symbols contains a sequence
  number, date (day, month, and year of the event), and may, if desired,
  contain a file reference number. The incident description written below the
  event node is a brief explanation of the incident and may include team size
  and type of incident. Arrows indicate time flow. By using these symbols and
  brief descriptions, it is possible to analyze the group's activities, transitions,
  trends, and particularly operational patterns in both time and activity. If
  desired, the event nodes may be color coded to indicate a particular event or
  type of event to aid in pattern recognition. The time event chart is the best
  analytical tool for pattern analysis. The example at Figure 12-1 depicts the
  history of the group, including most major players, which carried out the
  World Trade Center bombing in February 1993.