text: Chapter 2
  Understanding an Operational Environment
  2-1. Regional and strategic conditions affect United States (U.S.) involvement in opposing an insurgency.
  How and why the U.S. becomes involved in an insurgency is important. However, some important strategic
  trends can also affect the context of an insurgency. These global trends include demographic changes,
  globalization, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, religious extremism, and failed states
  leading to an era of persistent conflict. Persistent conflict is the protracted conflict among state, non-state,
  and individual actors who are increasingly willing to use violence to achieve their political and ideological
  ends. These trends not only affect the likelihood of conflict, but they also affect the capabilities and action
  of friendly, threat, neutral, and nonaligned actors.
  2-2. Understanding the conditions that may affect the stability of a nation or region assists commanders as
  they focus on a specific operational environment to determine the root causes that led to an insurgency.
  Whether operating at the operational or tactical level, commanders must understand and anticipate the
  effects of their operations and how they fit into the broader mission. The U.S. may enter situations with
  long-standing conflicts and established ways of life that have implications beyond the boundaries of a
  specific area of operations. Commanders identify relationships within that area that may exert external
  influence on other governments that have their own agendas in the region. Commanders also recognize that
  in the modern, interconnected world, actions at any level may have far broader impact than intended. This,
  coupled with certain global trends, may provoke more insurgencies in the future.
  DEMOGRAPHIC AND URBANIZATION TRENDS
  2-3. In the future, the world will become more populated and urbanized. Global population will increase
  by approximately 1.2 billion people by 2025 with more than a billion new urban dwellers in that time. Most
  population growth will occur in the developing world. Population growth, urbanization, and competition
  for limited resources in the Middle East, Africa, and South Central Asia will contribute to increased
  resource scarcity and may present governance challenges. Climate change combined with increased
  population centers in or near coastal environments may challenge the ability of failing and fragile states to
  respond to natural disasters. These conditions enhance the possibility of insurgencies in highly populated
  developing countries whose governments lack the capacity to provide effective governance, including
  security and the rule of law. These trends could lead to failed states and problems that will affect regional
  and global security because of globalization.
  2-4. Urbanization is the growth of urban areas due to both a population surge and migration. In 1950,
  29 percent of the world’s population lived in urban areas; by 2050, scientists estimate that 60 percent of the
  world’s population will live in urban areas. This rapid growth of urban areas, and the accompanying
  crowded conditions with the potential for high unemployment, creates a greater potential that future
  insurgencies may arise in urban areas.
  GLOBALIZATION
  2-5. Globalization is a combination of the technological, economic, social, cultural, and political forces
  that are bringing nation-states and the people of the world closer together. Globalization affects an
  insurgency by providing a freer flow of arms, information, and money to an insurgent group or insurgents
  and allows an insurgency to have a wider strategic effect than in the past. It is easy for ethnic groups or
  ideological groups to connect internationally because of globalization. Globalization provides a greater
  likelihood that insurgents will have access to outside resources, or that they will try to affect objectives
  outside of their local area. Through technology, globalization allows an insurgent to gain access to cyber
  electromagnetic tools that could be used to attack any country. It also makes ideologically or religiously
  motivated insurgencies more prevalent due to closer contact between traditional and modern societies.