text: Operations During Competition Below Armed Conflict
  TRANSITION TO CRISIS AND ARMED CONFLICT
  4-103. Transitions are inherently complex and unpredictable because anticipated environmental conditions
  can quickly change and alter the perception of strategic leaders who do not have all the information necessary
  for clear understanding. A response by one side can result in the perception of escalation by the other, leading
  to increased tensions. A crisis requiring a response can also occur because of unforeseen environmental
  changes. Transition from competition to crisis or armed conflict is often based on four types of decisions,
  resulting actions, and the follow-on associated effects from the initial action. Examples include—
  (cid:122) A decision by national command authorities to escalate or initiate armed conflict. Examples
  include the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2011 Libya strike, and the 2020 strike against Iranian
  General Qasem Soleimani.
  (cid:122) A decision by adversaries to escalate or initiate armed conflict. Examples include Hezbollah’s
  rocket strikes against Israel in 2006, the Russo-Georgia War in 2008, and the Russian invasions
  of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
  (cid:122) A decision by allied nations to escalate or initiate an armed conflict. An example of this is the
  1967 Six-Day War that occurred between Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel.
  (cid:122) Decisions made in response to a rapid environmental change that neither side planned for but
  causes tensions to rise. An example is the change brought to the strategic environment by the 2020
  pandemic.
  4-104. Army forces and leaders anticipate the potential for conflict in their operational environment. This
  is informed by input from the intelligence community and direction from strategic-level leaders. SFABs and
  other regionally aligned units have access to sensitive areas and ally and partner leaders. Their access and
  robust communications enable them to gain insight on actual conditions on the ground and provide real-time
  updates to decision makers during fluid situations. Decisions made before and during the initial stages of a
  crisis or armed conflict have significant impact on the decisions made by adversaries and the ultimate
  outcome of a particular situation.
  4-105. Once a crisis or armed conflict starts, adversaries use all capabilities at their disposal to disrupt the
  deployment of Army forces. They will attempt to prevent the Army and the joint force from obtaining the
  needed time to deploy and build combat power. This chaos, with its resultant frictions, is the environment
  into which Army forces will respond.
  CONFLICT TYPE DETERMINATION
  4-106. Army forces and leaders need to anticipate the type of conflict the Nation will fight. This is informed
  by input from the intelligence community and direction from strategic-level leaders. Decisions made before
  and during the initial stages of a crisis or armed conflict have significant impact on the decisions made by
  adversaries and the ultimate outcome of a particular situation. The initial decisions or recommendations by
  Army strategic leaders impact the ability of the Army to project force in a timely manner.
  FORCE PROTECTION
  4-107. Indications and warnings in a theater may prompt a decision to mobilize and deploy Army forces in
  anticipation of a crisis or armed conflict. Army forces anticipate and react to adversary actions targeting them
  where they are located during the initial stages of an operation, whether in the United States or forward
  deployed. Adversaries seek to degrade and disrupt the ability of Army forces to deploy. Adversaries may
  employ cyberspace attacks to inflict power outages at home station, target transportation networks to delay
  shipment of unit equipment, conduct social media attacks on Service or family members, and instigate
  protests that lower popular support for Army forces. Insider threats and proxies can conduct acts of terror,
  sabotage, subterfuge, and other activities against U.S. forces stationed in the United States and abroad.
  Adversaries may immediately employ lethal capabilities against Army forces using their air-, sea-, cyber-,
  and space-based capabilities to exploit surprise. Forward stationed forces should be prepared to deploy from
  garrison to dispersed locations to prepare a defense against an enemy attack. Force protection during
  transition will include physical security measures, operations security, and active information efforts to
  counter adversary efforts to misinform and otherwise influence Soldiers, Family members, and supporting
  organizations and communities.