text: ______________________________________________________________________________Introduction
  CRITICAL VARIABLES
  Any OE, in the real world or in the
  Critical Variables of COE
  training environment, can be defined
  in terms of eleven critical variables. • Nature and Stability of the State.
  While these variables can be useful in
  • Regional and Global Relationships.
  describing the overall (strategic)
  • Economics.
  environment, they are most useful in
  • Sociological Demographics.
  defining the nature of specific OEs.
  • Information.
  Each of these “conditions, circumstances,
  • Physical Environment.
  and influences” and their possible
  • Technology.
  combinations will vary according to
  • External Organizations.
  the specific situation. In this sense,
  • National Will.
  they are “variables.” These variables
  • Time.
  are interrelated and sometimes
  • Military Capabilities.
  overlap. Different variables will be
  more or less important in different
  situations. Each OE is different, because the content of the variables is different.
  Only by studying and understanding these variablesand incorporating them
  into its trainingwill the U.S. Army be able to keep adversaries from using them
  against it or to find ways to use them to its own advantage.
  Nature and Stability of the State
  It is important to understand the nature and stability of the state (or states) with
  which or in which the conflict takes place. Study of this variable measures how
  strong or weak a country is and determines where the real strength of the state
  lies; it may be in the political leadership, the military, the police, or some other
  element of the population. Understanding this variable will allow U.S. forces to
  better understand the nature of the military campaign and the true aims of an
  enemy campaign, operation, or action. It also helps determine what kinds of
  threats may be present in a particular country. The real threat to U.S. forces
  may come from elements other than the military.
  Regional and Global Relationships
  Nation-states and/or non-state actors often enter into relationships, which can be
  regional or global. These partnerships support common objectives, which can be
  political, economic, military, or cultural. An actor’s membership or allegiance to
  such a relationship can determine its actions of support and motivation. Virtually all
  conflict will occur with alliances and coalitions, some involving the United States
  and some involving its adversaries. When actors create regional or global alliances,
  it can add to their collective capability and broaden the scale of operations and
  actions.
  As the world moves away from the traditional long-term, fixed alliances of the
  past, regional and global relationships are much more fluid and unpredictable.
  The choice of a state to be nonaligned does not mean that it will not become in-
  volved in a conflict or crisis. It simply means that the state does not make a
  commitment to another state, alliance, or cause before a situation arises. This
  lack of precommitment makes it difficult to predict how actors and forces may
  align when a situation does arise. Alliances can form or change rapidly, even dur-
  ing the course of an operation or campaign.