text: Chapter 4
  wargaming, modeling is not a one-time event. Modeling sessions should be rerun as operations, events
  and the operational environment changes.
  4-94. Steps one through four remain unchanged in this technique. Step five, determining evaluation
  criteria, can be complicated. This is where the planners develop the operation’s measures of effectiveness
  and measures of performance. These measures are derived from the commander’s end state and the
  conditions leading to the end state. These measures show when the unit is successful and achieves the
  commander’s end state. Additionally, the measures should also tell commanders when they are gaining the
  ability to influence the system.
  4-95. The number of insurgent attacks can be a misleading indicator. Measures of effectiveness are
  more accurate when there are multiple supporting measures that look at similar issues with the intent
  of seeing the whole. In a counterinsurgency, the three major areas to measure are the strength of the
  government, the support of the people, and the strength of the insurgency. By measuring these three areas
  through a variety of quantifiable measurements, such as the ability to complete an essential service, the
  number of tips reported to the police, and the volume and type of insurgent propaganda, the commander
  should have a good feel for success and workable measures of effectiveness.
  4-96. For step seven, select a method to record and display the results; the recording method must
  capture the depth of the lessons that will be gained from the modeling and there must be a method to refine
  certain critical products. There are four areas where the planners should focus on capturing new
  information.
  1. The planners must capture any greater depth of understanding for each of the variables.
  2. They must record any new understanding of the variables and how they relate.
  3. They must update the rules of behavior for each variable.
  4. They must update the collection matrix.
  4-97. An expanded synchronization matrix (Figure 4-4) captures the actions of US forces, HN forces
  and the insurgents using the warfighting functions (WFFs). It also shows the population groups across the
  political, economic, and social categories. Using a synch matrix to show these factors can reveal the
  complexity of the operational environment over time. Based on their deeper understanding of the system,
  new critical information requirements will arise that must be addressed in the collection matrix.