text: Comprehensive Tactical Planning in Counterinsurgency
  Units Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
  US COIN Forces
  Movement and Maneuver
  Fires
  Intelligence
  Sustainment
  C2
  Protection
  HN COIN Forces
  Movement and Maneuver
  Fires
  Intelligence
  Sustainment
  C2
  Protection
  Population
  Political
  Military
  Economic
  Social
  Insurgent
  Movement and Maneuver
  Fires
  Intelligence
  Sustainment
  C2
  Protection
  Figure 4-4. Example expanded synch(ronization) matrix.
  4-98. The last step, war-game the operation and assess the results, is the modeling session itself. The
  focus of the modeling method is to gain a better understanding of the complex system that makes up an
  insurgency and to accurately forecast how actions affect the system. Like wargaming, there are many
  different techniques to conduct the actual modeling session. For the purposes of this manual, the turn-based
  technique using four groups is used.
  Modeling Technique
  4-99. During each turn, each group states their actions followed by the next group’s actions. The four
  groups are the US COIN forces, the Host Nation (includes other friendly forces), all neutral elements (IPI,
  the population, NGOs, and so on), and the insurgents. Before beginning, the group must clearly explain the
  concept, rules, and limitations for the modeling session to everyone, to include specific guidance to key
  individuals. Two key parts of COIN modeling are modeling the individual LOE and modeling the overall
  area or sector affected. In a typical staff, the S-3 plays the role of US and HN forces, the S-9 plays the
  neutral elements, and the S-2 plays the role of the insurgents. The XO facilitates. The staff plays its
  respective parts as accurately as possible portray their group in the coming modeling session.
  4-100. Like with wargames, the staff needs a visual reference to conduct the modeling process. This may
  be a sand table, a map, or some other visual board. Most of the items that compose this visual board come
  out of the mission analysis and must include more than just the hills and roads and other normal military
  aspects of terrain. For the model to be successful, it has to set the stage for the other planners to be able
  to see the world through their group’s eyes. That means the visual board should include significant cultural