text: Chapter 1
  Insurgent
  1-85. This column comments on the insurgent’s perception of the event.
  Counterinsurgent
  1-86. This column comments on how the HN perceives the event.
  Table 1-7. Example event matrix.
  From the Perspective of
  Area Location Population Insurgent Counterinsurgent
  Religious Festival XX Route XYZ One religion Gives an Religious freedom
  approves; another opportunity to must be accepted
  disapproves promote religious
  strife
  Fire Station XX Opening Grid Perspective is… Perspective is… Perspective is…
  coordinates
  Funeral for XX Grid Perspective is… Perspective is… Perspective is…
  coordinates
  Section IV—EFFECTS
  Describing the effects of the operational environment is the second step in IPB. It involves taking the facts
  about an area of operations grouped by mission variables of terrain, weather, and civil considerations
  and analyzing them to arrive at a conclusion about their effects on enemy and friendly courses of action.
  In addition to the normal analytical tools, examining each of the prerequisites of an insurgency and the root
  causes that lead to the insurgency have proved to be useful in identifying long-term societal problems. These
  problems lie at the heart of the competition for the population’s support between the insurgent
  and counterinsurgent.
  PREREQUISITES
  1-87. There are three prerequisites for an insurgency to be successful in an area—a vulnerable
  population, leadership available for direction, and lack of government control. When all three exist in an
  area, an insurgency can operate with some freedom of movement, gain the support of the people,
  and become entrenched over time.
  VULNERABLE POPULATION
  1-88. A population is vulnerable if the people have real or perceived grievances that insurgents can
  exploit. The insurgents can exploit the population by offering hope for change as well as exploiting
  political, economic, or social dissatisfaction with the current government. A gap between population’s
  expectations and the capability to meet these expectations may cause unrest within the population,
  including turning to insurgency. The larger the gap, the greater the population’s perceived, or relative,
  sense of deprivation between what they have and what they perceive they should have. Similarly, the larger
  the gap, the more susceptible the population is to insurgent influence through promises to close the gap.