re bases loaded walk gives reds win in in article apr cs cornell edu tedward cs cornell edu edward ted fischer writes in article mssc xb i cg netcom com mss netcom com mark singer writes sigh here we go again actually several scdn s stated that there were no definable skills that would make a hitter more likely to perform better in clutch situations vs non clutch situations however one might choose to define clutch right can you define such a skill must i if i were to say that batting average is a predictor that can be used to judge which of two hitters is more likely to get a hit on a particular plate appearance is that only valid if i can define the skill in hitting a baseball that s all i ve said except i used the smaller sample of batting average in clutch situations and elsewhere on this thread sherri nichols repeats her position that batting average in clutch situations is a meaningless statistic for predicting the future it has been entirely meaningless at least if it has meaning we don t know how to find it i did not say i could predict the future i ve suggested that the statistic is not necessarily meaningless here s the data for this situation non clutch clutch ab h ba ab h ba sabo samuel if you were to have been the reds manager at that time i assume you would have had some basis for letting sabo hit rather than pinch hitting samuel i m sure some of that basis would have utilized prior performance you just wouldn t have used this particular aspect of prior performance is this not correct i ll try to avoid being insulting but it s difficult when you so cavalierly dismiss hundreds of hours of work with an i don t pretend to understand but nobody is denying that there are people who have hit well in the clutch in the past but i challenge you to find a method to predict who will hit well in the clutch in the future which after all is what you are claiming you can do since one more time i did not claim to be able to predict the future i said that i accept the above data as an indication that samuel would have had a better chance for success in that situation than sabo and i am not dismissing your work i m stating my opinion you are saying that your work renders any opinion to the contrary invalid so that the retention of that opinion is some kind of insult to your work fine we have plenty of data obviously our preconceived biases must be coloring our work since you know clutch hitting is a well defined and consistent skill all of our failures not withstanding so i challenge you to prove it i guarantee you that if you can prove the existance of some form of clutch ability you will have plenty of happy sdcns dancing around you i did not say that clutch hitting is well defined i said that the data is significant to me i did not say that it is a consistent skill i have said that it is an indicator of performance under a certain set of circumstances but you aren t going to win any support by merely stating a position and claiming they are stupid so i must be right and big sigh i have not not not not not not not ever called you or anyone else on r s b stupid it is nice however to see that you will consider the possibility that you actually could have some preconceived biases yeah hindsight is always doesn t that make you bright this is a stupid argument and you know it ah i knew we could get to the name calling and there s that word you like so much a suggestion take data from and attempt to come up with some method that predicts who hit well in the clutch in if that works we can then attempt to apply it to and beyond wait a minute i thought i first had to define clutch hitting do i or don t i you have made strong statements now back them up or be proven a total idiot i made two statements in my post i am not convinced of your conclusions regarding clutch hitting i would have hit for sabo as for many of us make a number of written statements through this media about what we think will happen in baseball i m not shy about it i ll make the statement again i believe that by season s end that chris sabo s batting average in clutch situations will be significantly lower than his batting average in non clutch situations i can t prove that it will happen so i guess we ll just have to wait and see here s another one for you in joe carter s batting average in clutch situations was significantly below his batting average in non clutch situations each year i presume you think this is random non clutch ab h clutch ab h so what could we expect in from mr carter well his composite ba through was through was through was so i think we have a pretty good idea of what kind of batting average he can produce in he hit not surprising huh also in non clutch ab h clutch ab h no this doesn t prove any overall statistical trend that can be used to predict future performance across the breadth of major league ballplayers it just makes me think that in joe carter s batting average in the clutch is not going to be as high as his ba in non clutch situations as for above i have plenty of company john dewan of stats inc is the editor of the scouting report wherein the statistics regarding clutch hitting are compiled reported and referenced in the text bill james makes numerous references to a player s ability to hit well in the clutch i am not saying that i can predict the future any more than they are you and others are saying that your work renders their statements and mine meaningless i don t accept that which in your words proves that i am a total idiot stupid total idiot my my such hostility the beastmaster mark singer mss netcom com
