re bases loaded walk gives reds win in in article apr cs cornell edu tedward cs cornell edu edward ted fischer writes in article mssc y d netcom com mss netcom com mark singer writes quoted for future reference shown to be consistent in the past overall performance l r splits even matching hitting pitching styles all of these will give me some advantage if used properly was predicting the future the next ab he was predicting that sabo was more likely to get a hit than samuel he believed one of two things sabo was more likely than samuel to get a hit or that more good would be done in the long run by leaving sabo in regardless of the expectation of the actual outcome in fact you don t know what perez had in mind when he left sabo in by supporting the swap you are predicting the opposite in fact i don t think anyone is claiming that they can predict the future or any particular future event but we can believe that certain trends are due to a cause whether or not we have identified the cause and therefore will continue and i am not dismissing your work i m stating my opinion you are saying that your work renders any opinion to the contrary invalid so that the retention of that opinion is some kind of insult to your work well yes you are aware of its existance you claim to be incapable of understanding it though i suspect you are simply unwilling yet you rather forcefully state the opposite you don t seem to think the work is worth reading yet you obviously feel the topic is important i d say this is insulting i think seeing insults in other people s opinions is kind of silly after all mark didn t call you a total idiot or call your work stupid he simply stated that it didn t change his opinion on the subject i did not say that it is a consistent skill i have said that it is an indicator of performance under a certain set of circumstances right this is the beef it has not proven to be an indicator of future performance under any circumstances at least none that we ve been able to come up with if you know of some where it is an indicator of future performance please let us in on your secret if player a hits better on tuesdays and always has and mark believes that it might be an indication that he will hit on tuesday better next season as well would you respond the same way at some point you might admit that all variable might not be known to you who knows what this guy does every monday night maybe he sees his sports shrink on tuesday mornings or has his vitamin b shots monday nights but this is something that s true of one guy only it doesn t mean that there will be a meaningful correlation for the entire league by days of the week nor that there should be but it doesn t mean we can t make predictions based on that for that particular player i believe that by season s end that chris sabo s batting average in clutch situations will be significantly lower than his batting average in non clutch situations i can t prove that it will happen so i guess we ll just have to wait and see is this simply a prediction for chris sabo for this year or is this a prediction for all batters who have over the past few years hit xxx amount worse in the clutch than overall i only see a prediction for one player here i don t see anything about all batters here s another one for you in joe carter s batting average in clutch situations was significantly below his batting average in non clutch situations each year i presume you think this is random i m not going to get into case analysis sure you can find somebody who hit poorly from and then hit poorly in as well you can also find those who hit poorly from and then hit well in that s exactly what mark is trying to do though find hitters that have these correlation and ask whether we can make predictions for these hitters based on their past performance major league ballplayers it just makes me think that in joe carter s batting average in the clutch is not going to be as high as his ba in non clutch situations gambler s fallacy unless there is reason to expect consistency a huh what does gambler s fallacy have to do with anything whether you can know the reason for correlation or not you can t deny that it has existent you can only make an argument that you don t think it is likely to continue to exist because you can t see a reason for it to exist run proves nothing can you give us a reason to expect clutch ba to correlate from one year to the next i ve seen a detailed study of someone posted recently on why negative clutch would correlate the argument along the lines of star player with l r splits will always see an adverse condition in late innings of a close game i e opposing manager will always bring in a ah pitcher to face him where his manager will not pull him for a ph i don t see how you can deny it as for total idiot yes if you prove yourself unwilling to even consider evidence that might suggest that you are wrong i would say the term fits nicely so tell me does the term fit or do you have an open mind what about you if the shoe fits will you wear it with an open mind rudy
