Some economic historians ______ that late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century households in the United States
experienced an economy of scale when it came to food purchases—they assumed that large households spent less on food
per person than did small households. Economist Trevon Logan showed, however, that a close look at the available data
disproves this supposition.
surmised
contrived
questioned
regretted
Choice A is the best answer because it most logically completes the text’s discussion of late nineteenth- and early twentieth-
century household food purchases. In this context, “surmised” means formed an idea or assumption with little evidence. The
text explains that certain economic historians “assumed” that large and small households spent different amounts on food
per person, but that another economist found this supposition to be false based on evidence from available data. This
context suggests that the economic historians made an incorrect assumption without enough consideration of evidence.
Choice B is incorrect. In this context, “contrived” would mean brought about or created through trickery. Nothing in the text
suggests that the economic historians were deliberately trying to trick people with a claim about food purchasing behaviors
in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century households; the text simply suggests that they made an assumption about
those behaviors that another historian believes isn’t supported by the available data. Choice C is incorrect because the text
indicates that it’s Logan and not the economic historians who “questioned,” or doubted, the assumption that large and small
households in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries spent different amounts on food per person; the economic
historians are the ones who made that assumption to begin with. Choice D is incorrect because nothing in the text suggests
that some economic historians “regretted,” or felt sad or remorseful about, the food purchasing behaviors of late nineteenth-
and early twentieth-century households. The text focuses on the idea that the economic historians made an assumption
about those behaviors that may not be supported by available data, not on the historians’ emotional response to what
households did in the past.