According to statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best way to predict the amount of time a nonperishable entity (such as
a building or a technology) will continue to exist is to examine how long it has survived so far. In this view, an item’s age is
the strongest ______ how much longer it will last.
uncertainty about
indicator of
motivation for
criticism of
Choice B is the best answer. “Indicator” means “something that shows or suggests,” which matches Taleb’s argument that an
item’s age can suggest how much longer it will last.
Choice A is incorrect. The passage tells us that examining an item’s age is the best way to predict how much longer it will
last. Therefore, according to Taleb’s theory, an item’s age should add more certainty about how much longer it will last.
Choice C is incorrect. A “motivation” is “a reason for doing.” Items don’t have feelings and motivations, so it wouldn’t make
sense to say that their age is a motivation for how much longer they will last. Choice D is incorrect. “Criticism” can mean
“describing faults or problems” or “an analysis of an artistic work.” Neither of these deﬁnitions makes sense here. An item’s
age can’t criticize how much longer it will last.