Strategies are needed to identify individuals at risk of dementia long before disease onset, so that resources, treatment and prevention efforts can be efficiently targetedNumerous models of dementia risk have been proposed but their relative merits in terms of predictive accuracy are unknownOur evaluation of the literature suggests that current risk models are poor at distinguishing people at risk of developing dementia from not-at-risk individualsA consensus model for the prediction of dementia is needed that is applicable to both population and clinical settings
The rise in the incidence of dementia with the change in the global age demographic is a source of major public health concern, as the disability associated with this condition, particularly in the later stages of disease, leads to high personal, social and economic costs. Given the promise of future preventive strategies to limit the expected increase in chronic neurodegenerative diseases, early and accurate identification of individuals who are at a high risk of developing dementia is regarded as a research priority. Numerous prognostic models that incorporate known dementia risk factors have been proposed to achieve this goal. Knowledge of the predictive utility of such methods is important if they are to be included in daily clinical practice or to screen the entire older population (individuals aged ≥65 years).
