Water-table depths were simulated using a numerical model with information on recharge from the last 48 years under different extraction policies. With this series of groundwater level data, groundwater level probability distribution functions were determined and extraction statistics were estimated by fitting time series models and by using the crossing theory. With this information, it has been possible to calculate the risk of being unable to supply groundwater demand because the results verify that only 67% of the water rights granted are able to be extracted on a sustained basis with a 90% exceedance probability. Furthermore, the results obtained demonstrate that the method is adequate for determining exceedance probabilities of groundwater flow.
