Thin film solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, especially installations based on cadmium-telluride PV cells (CdTe) are expected to play a major role in future expansion of the global installed base of solar power. India's National Solar Mission (JNNSM) is an ambitious program to bootstrap the Indian solar sector. JNNSM seeks to use solar energy to supply India's growing energy needs, help reduce India's reliance on imported fossil fuels, address social issues such as the need to provide access to basic electricity to India's rural population, and jump-start an indigenous solar manufacturing industry. Using a Monte Carlo approach to simulate combinations of future technology, policy, and market scenarios, we estimate the amount of Cd and Te needed for indigenous manufacture of CdTe solar modules using JNNSM targets as a benchmark for new capacity addition. We show that complete indigenous production of CdTe cells using Te recovered from Indian copper refining process is not feasible even if JNNSM were to succeed in its objective of developing indigenous capacity for advanced PV manufacturing technology.