Thermal runaway (TR) is a major safety concern in lithium-ion batteries. Model-based TR prediction is critically needed to optimize safety designs of cells. This paper presents a novel scheme for developing reliable battery TR model from kinetics analysis of cell components. First, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) tests on the individual cell components and their mixtures are conducted to reveal the TR mechanism and characterize the exothermic reactions, of which the major six (such as the decomposition of solid electrolyte interface (SEI) film) are determined as the dominant heat sources. The kinetics parameters of each exothermic reactions are identified from the DSC tests results at variant heating rates using Kissinger’s method and nonlinear fitting method. A predictive battery TR model is established by superimposing the chemical kinetics equations of the six exothermic reactions. The model fits well with the adiabatic TR test results and the oven tests results of a 24 Ah lithium-ion battery, indicating that the model can well reflect the battery TR mechanism and be trusted to predict battery safety performance without assembling a real battery.