UFC 216 -- Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee predictions, main event, picks, fight card
It's an odd week for UFC in terms of its PPV product. UFC 216 is set to take place on Saturday night in Las Vegas, but it almost doesn't feel like this card should be a PPV. There's plenty of interesting fights on the card -- including two title fights -- but the names aren't the typical ones you'd expect to see headlining an event like this where there is virtually no competition for eyes outside of college football games late on Saturday night.
Still, three of the four main card fights carry importance in one way or another. One-time, hot shot heavyweight prospect Derrick Lewis is taking a big step up in competition on Saturday in facing former champion Fabricio Werdum, especially coming off a TKO loss to Mark Hunt in his last time out. The winner of this fight figures to be one or two fights away from contending for the belt considering how shallow the division is. Then, you have a chance to witness history when Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson looks to break Anderson Silva's record for most consecutive title defenses when he faces Ray Borg.
And in the main event, Tony Ferguson finally gets his shot to fight for UFC gold after winning nine consecutive fights against a red-hot prospect in Kevin Lee, who is on a five-fight winning streak of his own. Here's how the full fight card shakes out with the latest odds.
UFC 216 fight card, odds
Favorite Challenger Weightclass Tony Ferguson -210 Kevin Lee +175 Interim lightweight title Demetrious Johnson (c) -1400 Ray Borg +800 Flyweight title Fabricio Werdum -265 Derrick Lewis +215 Heavyweight Kalindra Faria -190 Mara Romero Borella +160 Women's flyweight Beneil Dariush -240 Evan Dunham +190 Lightweight Tom Duquesnoy -160 Cody Stamann +140 Bantamweight Will Brooks -360 Nik Lentz +260 Lightweight Lando Vannata -210 Bobby Green +175 Lightweight Poliana Botelho -140 Pearl Gonzalez +120 Strawweight
With a big card on tap, our experts took a crack at picking each of the main card fights. Here are your pick makers: Bill Reiter (national columnist), Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Matthew Coca (producer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (editor).
Fight Reiter Campbell Mormile Coca Wise Ferguson vs. Lee Ferguson Ferguson Ferguson Lee Ferguson Johnson (c) vs. Borg Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Werdum vs. Lewis Werdum Lewis Werdum Lewis Lewis Dariush vs. Dunham Dariush Dariush Dariush Dariush Dunham
Wise on why Ferguson wins: This is the moment Ferguson has waited over seven years for. He won nine straight fights to reach the top of the 155-pound division and he gets the chance to put the belt on. Ferguson will likely want to keep this fight a wrestling match given his recent run of submission wins (four out of six), but will need to be careful in taking too many chances as Lee is a strong wrestler as well. I think these two brawl it out for 25-grueling minutes before Ferguson's hand is raised with a unanimous decision win.
Coca on why Lee wins: It's time for Kevin Lee to back up all his smack talk. He's got all the makings of being a real champ. Talent? Check. Style? Check. Can talk the talk with the best of them? Check. Now, he'll have to put it all together against Tony Ferguson. Stay out of the way of the big time shots and use his speed to take the fight to the ground.
Campbell on why Johnson wins: For as aggressive and submission-minded as the 24-year-old Borg has been, he has only elevated to the title picture because of how definitively Johnson has cleaned out the division. "Mighty Mouse" is too skilled in every single aspect and too hungry to cement his legacy for Borg to pull the upset.