What we learned from Hall of Fame vote: PED stars are coming
Plenty to discuss, so here are the takeaways from the 2017 Hall of Fame’s announcement of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s voting results:
1. The Steroid-Era Scapegoats are halfway done here. And they’re past the halfway approval mark, too. At this rate, they will enjoy their deserved day in the sun.
Roger Clemens jumped from 45.2 percent to 54.1 percent, a healthy 8.9-percentage-point leap, and Barry Bonds climbed from 44.3 percent to 53.8 percent, an even better 9.5-percentage-point hike. With five years each on the ballot, they must reach the 75 percent threshold in the next five years, or else they will face what very likely will be a far less welcoming group in a veterans committee.
The worm sure appears to be turning for these two all-time greats. One X-factor to consider: What happens next year when the BBWAA makes all of its ballots public? This year, again, both Bonds and Clemens dropped notably from the pre-announcement public votes to the final tally. Bonds fell from 64.4 percent and Clemens from 63.2 percent. Will all of those nay voters, knowing they’ll have to account for their decisions, stick to the courage of their convictions?
Interestingly, Bonds and Clemens received an endorsement from new electee Jeff Bagwell, who said, “They were just awesome. Their demeanor, the way they went about their business, was amazing. I respect them. I’m a fan, put it that way.”
2. Trevor Hoffman, second to Mariano Rivera in career saves, fell just five votes short, getting support from 327 of the 442 panelists in his second year of consideration. He’s a slam dunk for induction next year, as is Vladimir Guerrero, who picked up 317 votes for 71.7 percent.
Someone will have to explain to me how Hoffman can start writing his 2018 speech whereas former Met Billy Wagner, who put up a 187 ERA+ to Hoffman’s 141, lurks near the bottom at 10.2 percent. I didn’t vote for either, yet I’d rank Wagner over Hoffman.
3. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo noted on Twitter, only three players have passed the 50 percent mark and then not made it all the way to 75 percent. That bodes well for Bonds and Clemens, as well as Mariners icon Edgar Martinez (58.6 percent), in his eighth year, and Clemens’ Yankees teammate Mike Mussina (51.8 percent), in his fourth year. Martinez got 43.4 percent and Mussina 43 percent last year.
The gridlock continues to clear, thanks to a fourth straight year of multiple electees (and with Lee Smith, who got 34.2 percent in his final year, out), so even with a strong 2018 rookie class including Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and Andruw Jones, Martinez and Mussina can expect to continue ascending. Martinez must work faster, with just two years left, yet new electee Tim Raines climbed from 55 percent to his election-worthy 86 percent in just two years.
4. Only two returnees dropped from the 2016 vote, and one, Wagner, merely tripped from 10.5 percent to 10.2 percent. The other, though? Curt Schilling slid hard from 52.3 percent to 45 percent. Wow! That just doesn’t happen.
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Schilling clearly paid a heavy price for publicly tweeting an image that expressed a desire to see journalists lynched. Will that be a one-year condemnation, or has Schilling, in his fourth year, inflicted serious damage on his candidacy? Next year should provide a solid answer. Unless, of course, Schilling tweets more imbecilic stuff between now and then, which constitutes the safest bet here.
5. It will be a tough row to hoe for Schilling’s former Red Sox teammate Manny Ramirez, who debuted with 23.8 percent. Manny is the second suspended illegal performance-enhancing drug user, following Rafael Palmeiro, to get on the ballot. Palmeiro started out at 11 percent and fell off the ballot, at 4.4 percent, in his fourth year of eligibility.
Count on Manny exceeding that low bar. Election, though? He will have to wait out the Bonds-Clemens saga and then see if mores change enough to green-light someone with two failed tests rather than just good evidence. Monitoring Manny’s case from afar, undoubtedly? Confirmed illegal PED user Alex Rodriguez.