Rising sea levels could cost the world $14 TRILLION a year by 2100
Failure to meet the United Nations' 2ºC warming limits will lead to sea level rise and 'dire global economic consequences', chilling new research has warned.
It claims flooding from rising sea levels could cost $14 trillion worldwide annually by 2100, if the target of holding global temperatures below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels is missed.
Scientists calculated the financial impact of sea damage worldwide if global temperatures are not held below 2C above pre-industrial levels.
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Winter storms at Trebarwith Strand, North Cornwall: A new study warns flooding from rising sea levels could cost $14 trillion worldwide annually by 2100
Upper middle-income countries such as China would suffer the greatest flood burden, said the researchers.
The highest income countries would be hurt least because of their protective flood defences.
Lead scientist Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva, from the UK National Oceanographic Centre (NOC), said: 'More than 600 million people live in low-elevation coastal areas, less than 10 metres above sea level.
'In a warming climate, global sea level will rise due to melting of land-based glaciers and ice sheets, and from the thermal expansion of ocean waters.
'So, sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of our warming climate.'
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS SHATTERED Temperature records worldwide have been shattered by an unusual global heatwave. Stifling heat cracked roads and buckled roofs across Britain last week, as Motherwell hit the highest temperature ever recorded in Scotland at 91.8°F (33.2°C). The heatwave has spread across the world, with Meteo France placing 21 departments across the country on an orange weather alert, while Oman saw the highest nighttime temperature ever recorded on the planet. Records all around the world have been shattered as the entire planet is in the grips of a vicious heatwave (pictured). Sweltering civilians have been basking in the sun as thermometers record never-before-seen temperatures At least eight people have been killed by the stifling heat sweeping North America, with Montreal recording its hottest temperature since records began. Worse still, the stifling temperatures look set to continue across the Northern Hemisphere, meteorologists have warned. While an isolated heatwave can be put down as an anomaly, the scale of this phenomenon points to global warming as the culprit, scientists said.
A temperature rise of 1.5C by 2100 would see mid-range sea levels rise by 0.52 metres (1.7ft), she said.
But if the 2C target was missed, median sea levels could rise by 0.86m (2.8ft) or even 1.8m (5.9ft).
'If warming is not mitigated … the global annual flood costs without adaptation will increase to 14 trillion dollars per year for a median sea level rise of 0.86m, and up to 27 trillion dollars per year for 1.8m,' Dr Jevrejeva added.
'This would account for 2.8% of global GDP (gross domestic product) in 2100.
'These extreme sea levels will have a negative effect on the economies of developing coastal nations, and the habitability of low-lying coastlines.
'Small, low-lying island nations such as the Maldives will be very easily affected, and the pressures on their natural resources and environmental will become even greater.'
The findings are reported in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
Sea level projections exist for emissions scenarios and socio-economic scenarios.
Small, low-lying island nations such as the Maldives will be very easily affected
However, there are no scenarios covering limiting warming below the 2°C and 1.5°C targets during the entire 21st century and beyond.
The study team explored the pace and consequences of global and regional sea level rise with restricted warming of 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC, and compared them to sea level projections with unmitigated warming following emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5.
Using World Bank income groups (high, upper middle, lower middle and low income countries), they then assessed the impact of sea level rise in coastal areas from a global perspective, and for some individual countries using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework.