Trump-Netanyahu meeting couldn’t come at better time
Wednesday at the White House: the summit of the embattled.
After a combined 11 years as Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is under police inquiry that may soon turn into a criminal-corruption investigation. With the resignation of his national security adviser Monday, President Trump is facing his first serious White House crisis.
And that’s the moment Bibi, who as premier never enjoyed a friendly White House for even a moment, comes to say hi to an old buddy from New York.
Truth is, both leaders could probably use a distraction and a friendly face. But though they’ll be discussing a range of Mideast issues, the only one that really matters is Iran.
Oh yes, the Palestinian issue will be on the agenda, and Foggy Bottom-types, media eggheads and others in the ever-growing peacemaking industry will very carefully study every word for signs of change or continuity.
But, for all Trump’s boast that he’s uniquely qualified to make the ultimate deal, there’ll be no serious breakthrough on this front. Maybe the Israelis or the Americans will budge a bit to one side on settlements.
Perhaps someone will say the magic phrase, “two states,” loud enough for everyone to hear.
But no, the world won’t come to an end if Trump announces plans to move the US embassy to certainly-not-occupied West Jerusalem. Nor will Donald and Bibi turn their backs on each other if the embassy stays put.
“The real strategic agenda that Netanyahu has coming here is much more Iran and the region as a whole,” says Dennis Ross, Mideast adviser to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Israel’s new “practical, below-the-radar-screen” relations with Egypt, Jordan and other Sunni Arab states open new opportunities, Ross told The Israel Project, a Washington think tank.
Those new ties are there because of Obama: Arab and Israeli leaders are terrified of the consequences of his nuclear deal with Iran. Those fears were realized as soon as it was struck last year as Iran stepped up its aggression and used its newfound, American-backed clout to further destabilize Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria.
The half-decade Syrian war alone has killed more people than the entire Arab-Israeli conflict, despite the latter’s domination of the headlines. Plus, thanks to the deal, Iran will be allowed to become a full-fledged nuclear power in as soon as a decade.
So what to do?
On Syria, Netanyahu is concerned that Trump, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin, will agree to a deal to accommodate a base for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Lebanese-based proxy, Hezbollah, right on Israel’s doorstep.
With that, Israel would face a new menacing front, in addition to Hamas-ruled Gaza, the ISIS-infested Sinai and Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon.
Netanyahu will need to impress on Trump that in Syria, Iran and its proxies aren’t part of the solution. They’re a major problem.
In addition, recognizing that America won’t unilaterally undo the Iran deal, Netanyahu will arrive at the White House with a host of new ideas on how to tighten it.
The two leaders will need to develop, along with their regional partners, a new strategy to address the dangers posed by the deal’s 10- to 17-year sunset clause. As it stands, at the end of that period it’ll be up to the mullahs to determine the size of the nuclear arsenal they want.
More immediately, as former Israeli Army Chief Amos Yadlin wrote this week, it’s time to start pushing a new UN Security Council resolution that would outright ban Iranian missile testing. Pressuring Iran on missiles could also help Trump deal with the North Korean crisis, as the two rogue nations cooperate on ballistic-missile development.
All this, plus a long, warm Trump-Netanyahu handshake, will reassure many American allies. Even world leaders normally critical of Israel grew increasingly worried about what Obama’s treatment of Netanyahu meant for America’s willingness to stand by its allies.
Netanyahu and Trump will likely be glad to address global issues rather than talk about themselves. Both have an interest in showing that America and Israel are Valentines again. Sending a unified message — Iran is dangerous to the world — will help.
And who knows, maybe America’s old Arab partners, now also Israel’s new secret friends, will start pressuring the Palestinians behind the scenes. It would be a double diplomatic coup — and for both leaders, couldn’t come a moment too soon.