Week 5 NFL picks: Seahawks top Rams, Lions cover and more Pete Prisco best bets
Two bad calls and an injury to Julio Jones might have cost me a 5-0 record last week. Not that I am complaining.
After the slow start as part of Team OddsShark in the Westgate SuperContest, I got back on track with a 4-1 record last week. I moved ahead of Mr. Monday Not -- Nick Kostos -- and got more separation from Will Brinson, my two podcast buddies who are also a part of Team OddsShark. Atlanta was the only loser for me last week when they lost outright to the underdog Bills.
Looking down on Kostos and Brinson is the way it will stay the rest of the season.
This is my birthday week, so as a present to me – and you -- I expect a 5-0 mark for the first Sunday in October.
When the leaves turn brown, I will have the crown. OK, maybe just our inner-office crown.
I didn't really feel great about my picks last week, and look what happened. This week, it's the same. The card is tough.
So I pulled out one of my favorite picking tricks to make my picks this week: Go against teams playing consecutive road games outside the division. That's why I took the Lions over the Panthers and the Bengals over the Bills.
So let's get ready for a hot streak and a big Week 5 with these picks:
Bengals -3 vs. Bills
Andy Dalton has been hot lately, but this is a big test against a good Bills defense. I don't think Buffalo's defense is as good as the numbers say, and that shows up here. They are also playing those two road games outside the division on successive weeks, winning last week at Atlanta. They come down in this one.
The Dolphins have been putrid on offense, scoring 8.7 points per game, but the Titans have been just as bad on defense, giving up over 30 per game. This is Miami's first real home game -- they played in London last week as a home game -- and that will matter. Adam Gase is too good an offensive coach to have a bad offense. On the other side, the Titans will almost certainly have Matt Cassel as quarterback. That's not a good thing.
49ers +1.5 at Colts
The 49ers are also playing consecutive road games, so I am bucking the trend here. I just don't think the Colts are good. The 49ers aren't either, but their defense showed me something last week at Arizona. I think that continues here. Give me the small number.
Lions -2.5 vs. Panthers
The Panthers found their offense last week at New England, but this is a much better defense they are facing. Detroit's offense will have some trouble as well, but I think the Lions will pull out a close one late to get the win and the cover.
Seahawks +1 at Rams
The Rams lead the NFL in scoring and the Seahawks have had major issues against the run, which is a good thing for Todd Gurley. But I think the Seahawks will get back to playing Seattle-style defense this week. Russell Wilson will get the better of the Rams defense as Seattle shows again who the class of the NFC West is this season.