NFL odds, picks Week 5: Advanced computer model loves Steelers, Eagles
The NFL's fifth weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.
The Dallas Cowboys are 2.5-point home favorites over the Green Bay Packers in a game that's already seen plenty of line movement, the Houston Texans are one-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and the Minnesota Vikings are favored by a field goal against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know to what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
SportsLine's Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season -- better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.
Every single one.
SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up picks last season.
It's fresh off a week in which it absolutely nailed the New York Jets ' upset win of the Jacksonville Jaguars and nearly predicted the exact score. It also called the Philadelphia Eagles ' upset of the Los Angeles Chargers in L.A.
With Week 5 already here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
One team it loves: the Pittsburgh Steelers , who are eight-point favorites against the Jaguars. The model is calling for the Steelers to cover comfortably, 26-16, and they're winning 73 percent of simulations. Look for the Under to hit as well. SportsLine's model is calling for 240 yards and two touchdowns from Ben Roethlisberger and over 100 total yards for Le'Veon Bell.
Another team SportsLine's proven model loves: the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 6.5-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field. The model predicts an easy eight-point win and cover for the Eagles, who will end the week 4-1. The Cardinals are 0-4 against the spread this season, and the Eagles are winning 68 percent of simulations.
One surprise: the Miami Dolphins , who have scored one touchdown in the last eight quarters, beat the Tennessee Titans outright as one-point underdogs. The Titans could be without QB Marcus Mariota , and the model is calling for a 21-19 Miami win. Grab the Dolphins this week in their first true home game against a Titans team that's giving up over 30 points per game.
The model also is calling for another home favorite to get absolutely stunned, meaning a huge payday for anyone who bets on the big-time road underdog.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Cowboys-Packers game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, as well as picks from 16 experts.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 42.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3, 45)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1, 39.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 42.5)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1)
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 44.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-PK, 46.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 39)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 52.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 45.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3)