Patriots won’t be able to ‘finish’ off Eagles
Eagles (+4 ½) over Patriots / Over 48 (Super Bowl LII, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis)
There has been a stream of high-value opportunities available to the discerning handicapper in the ultimate game — especially since the expansion to 12 postseason-eligible teams in 1990 fortified the chances of even superior sides to slip up because of wear and tear, Dame Fortune or lesser rosters enjoying specific matchup advantages.
This game doesn’t look so simple, despite the presence of a five-time Super Bowl winner with the dominant quarterback and ace coach on their side, favored by a diminished number against a standing QB and a second-year head coach thriving with worthwhile talent gathered with the aid of the acumen of general manager Howie Roseman, whose eye for picking off other teams’ disrespected castoffs rivals New England’s.
That broad market opened at New England -6. The public appears broadly split, but one Las Vegas whale has been firing sporadic six- and seven-figure fusillades at multiple desert outlets, which have trimmed the consensus number to -4 ½.
We respect the Patriots’ historical ability to be able to “finish” in the big game with a succession of stouthearted fourth quarters — though one’s fealty to Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (now cleared from concussion protocol) and the rest of the receivers is based on the Patriots’ front line being able to keep Brady’s shirt clean and these Eagles are able to outplay most offensive lines without having to resort to blitzes. We prefer both of Philadelphia’s lines to New England’s.
The resurrection of Nick Foles is reminiscent of a couple of veteran QBs who met their destiny once they manned the controls of an NFC East franchise with a history (and the associated institutional know-how) of winning league championships, stepping in for starters who had suffered late-season injuries. A December replacement for Jay Schroeder, ex-Buccaneer Doug Williams guided the Redskins in Super XXII.
Supported by a stout defensive front and a run game (unlike the favored Broncos, who had neither, despite the presence of John Elway), Williams racked up 35 second-quarter points in that 42-10 rout. Three years later, career backup Jeff Hostetler kept the Giants’ ship afloat when Phil Simms went down in Week 14 and won five straight, snaring the Super photo when Scott Norwood’s last-second field-goal attempt went wide right for Jim Kelly and the favored Bills.
Acknowledge that Philly doesn’t have the modern league-championship history the ’Skins, Giants or even Tom Landry’s Cowboys can boast of, though the Eagles were star-crossed as Donovan McNabb threw three picks (Brady: none) in the Eagles’ narrow loss to these Patriots in Super XXXIX — the Pats’ third championship in four years. We would also agree that in the Pats, these Eagles have drawn a more difficult opponent than either Williams’ Redskins or Hostetler’s Giants did in their storybook seasons.
The over/under doesn’t seem to offer significant value, unless you’re already an Eagles enthusiast looking for something resembling a hedge. The Pats’ two Super losses to the Giants were direct products of Big Blue’s pass rush hectoring Brady early and often, resulting in a pair of no-sweat unders. Brady has a history of significantly slow starts in Supers, going scoreless in all seven first quarters, feeling out the opposition while trying to set up multiple strategic wrinkles to employ when it really matters. This season, the Pats didn’t face a top-drawer offense in peak form away from Gillette anytime prior to December, and heaven knows the Eagles have multiple fear-inducing weapons if Foles can deliver regularly. Wouldn’t surprise if the first half stays under 23 ¹/₂, before things loosen up later on.
Looking at the big picture, we’re also compelled to emphasize that as Brady strives to maintain his extraordinary performance levels in his 41st year, his supporting cast (even with the unique presence of Gronkowski) does not match up favorably with most earlier Patriots championship editions. Still, Bill Belichick’s surface optimism is obvious, and a representative effort by the favorite is anticipated. As most expected, the scattered -4s appearing last week had been snapped up by Friday, as serious Patriots believers finalize their own max-value positions.
“No bad luck” to Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie …
Eagles, 28-23.
Conference championship: 1-1. Eagles (W); Patriots (L).
Over/Unders: 0-2.
Postseason: 5-4-1.
Over/Under: 7-3.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @rich_witt1.