Ring of Fire: When will a big earthquake strike California?
But is the Ring of Fire set to bring more earthquakes imminently? When will a big earthquake strike California? Although nobody can predict exactly when an earthquake is about to happen, experts can make reliable predictions based on modelling forecasts. There is a 93 percent likelihood of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake shaking California before 2045, according to a report from the WGCEP (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities). A magnitude 7 earthquake is classed as a “major” earthquake on the Richter scale.
It can cause buildings to either completely or partially collapse and lead to major damage within a 250km zone of the earthquake’s epicentre. The catastrophic Haiti earthquake - which measured magnitude 7 - killed than 100,000, according to the US Geological Survey. Seismologist Dr Jen Andrews from the California Institute of Technology said the WGCEP model was the “best resource” scientists have at present, although it was impossible to predict an exact timeframe. She told Express.co.uk: “There are many active earthquake faults in California, but the San Andreas has large earthquakes most frequently, so is considered the most likely candidate to host the next 'big one' (though the largest earthquakes in the last few decades have not occurred on it).
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"Additionally, it seems that the southern portion of the San Andreas has not hosted a large earthquake in several hundred years, so is considered the most 'ready' to fail.” California sits on top of the North American and Pacific tectonic plates and the San Andreas fault runs through it. Richard Aster, Professor of Geophysics at Colorado State University, recently stated that California was in an earthquake drought and the situation was more dire than people realised. Dr Andrews said her peer was re-iterating well-known points and there was “nothing controversial” about his comments.
GETTY Ring of Fire warning: Scientists agree California is long overdue a magnitude 7 earthquake