Guide to buying low, selling high with 9 fantasy baseball pieces
Sometimes things just aren’t as they seem.
For instance, a firefly is not a fly, it’s a beetle. A peanut is not a nut, it’s a legume. Covfefe isn’t a word, but a way of life … or an amazing land lined with streets made of gold and houses filled with perfectly crisp bacon … or something thought up while sitting on the toilet at 1 a.m. OK, maybe it is what it seems.
In fantasy baseball, you need to know what is real and what is fake, when it is time to invest in a player, and when it is time to sell them at peak value.
Before Friday night, Miguel Sano had struck out 73 times this season (37.1 percent of his plate appearances) and was on pace to whiff 252 times (yes, that would be a record). There are five players in the history of the game who have struck out 200 times or more in a season — Mark Reynolds (three times), Chris Carter (twice), Chris Davis (twice), Adam Dunn and Drew Stubbs. None of those players had a batting average higher than .262.
Sano hits the ball hard and is walking in a career-high 16.2 percent of his plate appearances, but he has an incredibly unsustainable .456 BABIP (highest in the league), almost 80 points higher than his career norm. His .297 average is going to fall, period. If you were expecting him to remain a borderline .300 hitter knowing he is a career .258 hitter, chances are you also believe you’re on a sitcom and people are watching you all day.
After hitting .269 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs in just 80 games in 2015, big things were expected. He disappointed in 2016, when he hit .236 with 25 homers and 66 RBIs in 116 games. Sano appears to be having his moment (13 homers, 40 RBIs, .411 OBP, 1.017 OPS), but the numbers indicate it won’t remain this good.
It has been just 47 games, so selling Sano is not missing out on a breakout season or giving up on a young player, it is taking something when it is worth the most and turning it into something that is more valuable in the long run. And fantasy is about the endgame, not the first 47 games.
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Here is a look at some players to consider buying and selling:
Buy: Jeff Samardzija might be 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA, but he is striking out a career-high 10.5 per nine innings and has a 3.13 FIP and 2.81 xFIP. Better days are ahead for the 32-year-old. Now is the time to buy low.
Sell: Despite Corey Dickerson’s high hard-hit percentage (35.3), he is hitting a career-high number of ground balls and his BABIP (.394) is about 60 points higher than his career average. He is getting lucky, and regression is in his future.
Buy: Maikel Franco can’t be this bad, can he? He is hitting .216, but his plate discipline numbers are in line with his career numbers, his hard-hit percentage is at a career high, he gets RBI opportunities and his .222 BABIP indicates he is running into bad luck. Ignore the chatter of him being sent to Triple-A and buy while he is at bargain-bin prices.
Sell: Dylan Bundy is 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA, but there are red flags. The 24-year-old’s FIP (4.04) and xFIP (4.84) indicate his luck will run out, but even more concerning is his injury history (he had Tommy John in 2013) mixed with the fact he never has pitched more than 109 ²/₃ innings in a season (he already has thrown 71 ²/₃). Think Carlos Martinez in 2015 — 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA in the first half, 4-4 with a 3.73 ERA in the second.
Sell: Antonio Senzatela has been sensational through his first 11 starts (7-2, 3.49 ERA), but he is a rookie pitching in Coors Field without dominating stuff (5.91 strikeouts per nine), with a 4.16 FIP and a .258 BABIP. His long-term outlook doesn’t look as lucky.
Buy: Jose Quintana is 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA (15 runs over his past two starts), already has allowed 10 homers and is walking a career-high 3.36 per nine. But with a 4.28 FIP and a career-high 8.95 strikeouts per nine, it is hard to believe he won’t fix his command issues and get back to being a top-25 pitcher. Take advantage of panicking owners.
Buy: Andrew McCutchen’s incredibly low BABIP (.223) mixed with the fact he historically has been at his best in the month of June (.308, 26 HRs, 132 RBIs, 30 steals) make him a solid buy for depth.
Sell: Ervin Santana has the lowest ERA (1.75) in the league, but a 4.10 FIP and 4.69 xFIP. Though he was one of Roto Rage’s favorite cheap finds in the draft, things will not remain this pristine all season long.
Big Hits
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Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
He has allowed just one run over his past four starts while going 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA, 21:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .172 opponent average. His .222 opponent BABIP just means the real guy will rear its ugly head sooner or later.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
May was good to the 28-year-old vet as he hit .316 with four homers, 20 RBIs, scored 20 runs, walked 10 times and stole seven bases.
Sean Manaea, SP, Athletics
He went 3-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 27:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio last month, and is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 20 strikeouts and .179 opponent average over his past three starts.
Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets
Raised his average from .206 to .259 over his past 11 games by going 14-for-43 (.326) with four homers, 11 RBIs, seven runs and a 1.094 OPS.
Big Whiffs
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Manny Machado, SS/3B, Orioles
Over his past 18 games before Friday, he was 14-for-76 (.184) with one homer, three RBIs and 20 strikeouts. He has a .236 BABIP in that span, so things will get better.
Hector Santiago, SP, Twins
The lefty is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA, .330 opponent average and a 12:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his past five appearances. He has allowed 10 homers over his past 20 innings.
Ian Happ, OF, Cubs
After going 10-for-28 (.357) with two homers, five RBIs, eight runs and 1.240 OPS in his first eight big-league games, he was 2-for-28 (.071) with 13 strikeouts and no homers, runs or RBIs over his last nine games in May.
Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles
Has lost two of his past four starts, allowing 15 earned runs over his past 18 innings (7.50 ERA), a .363 opponent average, a .422 on-base percentage and .997 OPS.
Quick Hits
Arizona’s Robbie Ray hasn’t allowed a run in 24 ²/₃ innings, and has gone 3-0 with 25 strikeouts, three walks and a .104 opponent average in his past three starts, all on the road. In six road starts this season, the lefty is 4-1 with a 0.64 ERA, 53:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.756 WHIP. It is a different story for him at home, where he is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA over five starts.
How did Justin Bour, whom Roto Rage highly recommended you pick up to replace Freddie Freeman, do in May? Well, he went 33-for-96 (.344) with 11 homers, 21 RBIs, 18 runs, a 1.156 OPS and 13 walks. Guess he did all right, huh?
Bartolo Colon is starting to show his age. In May, he allowed 34 runs (25 earned) while going 1-4 with an 8.54 ERA and a .362 opponent average. When Colon was a rookie (1997), Michael Jordan was winning his fifth NBA title, the Browns moved to Baltimore and “Titanic” won the Oscar for best picture. Colon’s season is like “Titanic.” You know, big ship hitting a wall/iceberg and sinking ever so slowly.
Team Name of the Week
No Stroman, No Cry