What stands between Jose Altuve becoming the next Jeter
When the Astros signed Jose Altuve to an extension that carried through 2024 and his age-34 season, they were gambling he would stay on track with Pete Rose and Derek Jeter.
Notice the word “stay.” Because so often it is difficult to appreciate greatness in the moment. But understand in Altuve you are watching one of the great hit accumulators in major league history.
When Altuve produced two more hits Tuesday night against the Yankees that gave him 1,326 hits through 1,038 career games during his age-28 season.
Rose recorded two hits in a doubleheader opener on Sept. 8, 1969. That gave him 1,287 hits through 1,038 games during his age-28 season.
Jeter singled on July 29, 2002. That gave him 1,327 hits through 1,038 games during his age-28 season.
The similarities between Altuve and Jeter, in particular, go beyond a one-hit difference through the same number of games played. They were both championship middle infielders by their 28th birthday – Jeter four times, Altuve once. When Altuve delivered those two hits Tuesday against the Yankees it gave him 378 multi-hit games through those 1,038 career games. You know how many Jeter had at the same point? Yep, 378.
Just an aside here, but I looked at multi-hit games through the age-28 season and Jeter had 395. You know who had 381? Jose Reyes. A reminder in this horrific season for Reyes about the arc we once thought he was following.
Now, back to our show.
Weighted Runs Created Plus is a singular stat designed to weigh all offensive outcomes (for example, a double is better than a single, a triple better than a double, etc.) while factoring in effect of league and park. Through 1,038 games Jeter was 26 percent better than the MLB average, Altuve was 25 percent.
Altuve was hitting .317 with 371 extra-base hits and 237 steals compared to Jeter .319, 352 extra-base hits and 159 steals.
Jeter signed a 10-year extension in spring training going into his age-27 season and finished with the sixth-most hits ever (3,465). Rose was first (4,256). Both were durable hitting metronomes beyond the traditional prime.
Altuve signed his extension this past spring training entering his age-28 campaign. Will he endure like Rose and Jeter?
Among players who debuted in the Modern Era (since 1900), these are the players with the most hits through 1,038 games: 1. Ichiro Suzuki 1,478. 2. Wade Boggs, 1,411. 3. Kirby Puckett, 1,371. 4. Nomar Garciaparra, 1,354. 5. Tony Gwynn, 1,332. 6. Jeter, 1,327. T7. Altuve/Don Mattingly, 1,326 (thanks to Elias and MLB Network researcher Eric Nehs). The list is filled with players (Suzuki, Boggs, Gwynn, Jeter) who aged well, but also due to health reasons those who didn’t (Garciaparra, Puckett, Mattingly).
Altuve, to date, has been durable and brilliant. He has played the fourth-most games since becoming a regular in 2013, including every Astros game this year. Altuve currently leads the majors in hits. If that holds, it would mean leading the AL in hits a fifth straight season. The only player who has led a league in hits five straight years is Suzuki (2006-10).
“From my perspective, I think he ages well because of his vision and bat to ball skills,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said.
“Being a bad ball hitter so often shows me the ability to hit so many variety of pitches. He doesn’t have a glaring weakness offensively where teams can exploit him. That should lead to high hit totals. He is so elite at hitting everything.”
And Altuve is getting hits against the greatest velocity ever, computer programs that more exactly reveal hitter’s areas of weakness and in the age of the shift. In 2002, when Jeter was 28, the major league batting average was .261. It is .245 this year.
Yet, Altuve keeps hitting and hitting. He had four 200 hits seasons from 2014-17. The rest of the majors had eight with only Dee Gordon (twice) doing it more than once. From 2014 through Tuesday, Altuve had 921 hits. The second most in the majors belonged to Charlie Blackmon at 800. That gap of 121 hits is the same as between Blackmon and the guy who ranks 26th in that period, Anthony Rizzo.
Can Altuve persevere like Jeter or Rose or Boggs? The Astros gambled that he is in that mold by giving him the largest contract in franchise history. However it goes, enjoy this moment when we are watching one of the great hit makers in major league history.