Polls can’t agree on if Roy Moore is going to win special election
Three polls released on the eve of Tuesday’s special election for Alabama’s open Senate seat predicted wildly different outcomes, reflecting the volatility of a race that has riveted the nation.
A Fox News survey showed Democrat Doug Jones with a double-digit lead over Republican Roy Moore, 50 to 40 percent.
But an Emerson College poll released a few hours later gave the race to Moore, 53 to 44 percent.
The third poll, by Monmouth College, called the race a dead heat with each at 46 percent.
The Fox poll gave Jones the largest margin either candidate has enjoyed in the closely watched election to fill the seat vacated by US Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
That survey’s results suggested that with Moore facing several allegations of sexual misconduct, Democrats were feeling more juiced about their candidate than Republicans were about theirs, and were also demonstrating more loyalty to their party.
“Moore might prevail if only the people who typically vote in Alabama elections turn out Tuesday, which is often what happens in special elections,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
“But this appears to be a special, special election with blacks and young voters animated by a caustic Republican candidate and the chance of winning a statewide election with national implications, and at the same time, some Republicans and many moderates are turned off by Moore, too.”
“It’s clear Jones is positioned to pull off the upset because his supporters are unified and energized, and Moore’s are conflicted and diffident,” Shaw added.
Polling experts say differing methodologies could at least partially explain the discrepancies.
The Emerson poll was an automated “robopoll.” Such polls are prohibited by law from calling voters on their cellphones.
But both the Fox and Monmouth polls were based on live interviews with cellphone as well as landline users, making the surveys more likely to count younger voters inclined to back Jones.
Automated surveys also get lower response rates and may have samples that are less representative of the electorate.
The Emerson sample was 600 and Monmouth’s was 546, while the Fox’s was more than 1,400.
Experts also said poll results are often less reliable for special elections, where voter turnout is more unpredictable.
The Fox poll suggested Jones widened his lead despite President Trump’s endorsement of Moore and Trump’s appearance at a raucous pro-Moore rally on Friday night just over the Alabama state line in Pensacola, Fla.
But Moore’s support among evangelical Christians appeared steadfast despite the allegations of sexual misconduct and assault lodged against him by at least eight women, including two who said he groped them when they were minors and he was a prosecutor in his 30s.
Moore has denied all allegations, claiming that the women are all liars and that he is the victim of a conspiracy cooked up by an alliance of liberals, the media and the GOP establishment.
Alabama voters by a slim margin believe the allegations against Moore are true, 39 to 33 percent, the Fox poll found.
Former President Barack Obama jumped into the race with a robocall for Jones, competing against a robocall made by Trump on Moore’s behalf.
“This one’s serious,” Obama says in the call, telling Alabama Democrats to “get out and vote” and, “You can’t sit it out.”
While Moore kept off the campaign trail in the final stretch, Jones took the pulpit at Progressive Union Missionary Church and kissed babies with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
Moore surfaced briefly Monday to weigh in on the terror attack in Manhattan.
“In the United States Senate i will fight with President Trump for the increased safety of the American people and I will not mince words when it comes to calling out radical Islamic terrorism for the threat that it is,” he tweeted.