Two months into the season, a look at the teams that have helped and hurt their playoff odds the most
Major League Baseball's 2018 regular season is now about two months old, or nearly a third of the way complete. As such, this is as good of a time as any to check in on the playoff odds and see which teams added and conceded the most during the month of May.
To provide the top three gainers and losers, let's turn to FanGraphs' playoff odds. We'll also include SportsLine's playoff odds -- remember to check out their daily pick sheet by clicking here.
Top gainers
Milwaukee Brewers
May 1: 23.3 percent
Current: 48.7 percent (73.9 percent at SportsLine)
Net: 25.4 percentage points
The Brewers will enter play on Wednesday with the largest division lead in the National League. Credit that distinction to an 18-7 May that has seen them win eight of their last nine games against seeming contenders like the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Cardinals. Josh Hader might be the best reliever in baseball, while Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, and Travis Shaw have been leading the offense. Milwaukee still may need to add a starting pitcher -- three of the five members of their rotation have strikeout-to-walk ratios below 2.00 -- but it's a good team, and one that should be in contention for at least a wild card spot from here on.
Seattle Mariners
May 1: 18.5 percent
Current: 43.5 percent (61.6 percent at SportsLine)
Net: 25 percentage points
The biggest team-level surprise in the American League, the Mariners' success doesn't make a ton of sense. Seattle has outperformed their run differential by five wins, and have continued reeling off wins despite Robinson Cano's suspension and Dee Gordon's subsequent injury. The Mariners have instead been led by names like Guillermo Heredia, Wade LeBlanc, and James Pazos. The M's recently stole Denard Span and Alex Colome from the Rays, which ought to help them stay in the race despite the odds.
Colorado Rockies
May 1: 14.1 percent
Current: 34.2 percent (22.4 percent at SportsLine)
Net: 20.1 percentage points
It's hard to believe the Rockies are in first place given how much their lineup and offseason bullpen investments have struggled (Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee each have ERA over 5). The Rockies can credit their success to their rotation and a tattered division -- the National League West looks like it'll be a battle of attrition all summer into fall.
Top losers
Arizona Diamondbacks
May 1: 69.3 percent
Current: 20.4 percent (34 percent at SportsLine)
Net: -48.9 percentage points
See. The Diamondbacks were the biggest gainer at the end of April. They've since lost A.J. Pollock to injury while maintaining their woeful offense. Arizona has averaged 2.7 runs per game in May, resulting in a 7-18 month -- that's a 45-win pace over a full season. The Diamondbacks have, as a result, turned their six-game lead into a 1.5-game deficit. They're not going to continue to play this poorly, but sheesh.
Toronto Blue Jays
May 1: 42.2 percent
Current: 5.8 percent (1.9 percent at SportsLine)
Net: -36.4 percentage points
Let's put it this way: the Blue Jays have won nine games in May -- they've allowed eight runs or more in eight games, win or lose. Eventually, the Blue Jays will bring up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shift their focus to the future -- likely alongside a trade-deadline sell-off. For now, though, the most interesting thing Toronto offers on a nightly basis is who'll play shortstop.
New York Mets
May 1: 52.4 percent
Current: 20.7 percent (3.8 percent at SportsLine)
Net: -31.7 percentage points
Remember the Mets' great start? So much for that. A growing list of injuries now includes Noah Syndergaard, further complicating the Mets' route to the postseason. There's still time, but the honeymoon period for Mickey Callaway is officially over.