A position-by-position breakdown of the NBA Finals
OAKLAND, Calif. – You can be forgiven for thinking you’ve seen all this before. You have. We all have.
But conversely, if you believe the fourth straight Cleveland against Golden State NBA Finals seems somewhat new and different, you also can’t be faulted. Never in the NBA, NFL, MLB, or NHL have the same two teams slugged it out in the championship round four straight years. So that’s new.
As are the Cavs, in a way. Remade at the trade deadline, the Cavs have a healthy share of Finals first-timers. Oh, Cleveland stills has the hands-down, best player on earth and all reported planets in LeBron James. But his presence can’t deflect one other decidedly different wrinkle.
Never were LeBron and the Cavs cast as such decisive underdogs, not even after the Warriors won 73 games and were defending champions. James, without All-Star sidekick Kyrie Irving, has dragged the Cavs through three series to get them to join him for his eighth consecutive Finals, ninth overall. Good luck.
Injuries affect the Finals. The Cavs hope Kevin Love is cleared from the concussion protocol while the Warriors have fingers crossed about the knee injury of 2015 Finals MVP Andre Iguodala — he’s already out for Game 1, and will be re-evaluated before Game 2.
Still, the Warriors carry an All-Star array of talent with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, all of whom will be intent on wearing down James.
Here’s a look at the matchups, with this postseason stats:
Point guard
Stephen Curry (24.8 points, 4.9 assists) vs. George Hill (9.7 points, 2.2 assists)
Golden State’s Curry missed the first six postseason games with a sprained knee, and while he doesn’t look 100 percent and shows occasional rust, he still has enough to remind all that he’s a two-time MVP. When he’s right, every time he shoots, you think it’s good. Right now, not so much. Hill is a steady, non-spectacular but consistent pro. The Cavs pray he hit shots and avoids foul trouble. Behind him are venerable (a nice way of saying old) Jose Calderon and Finals newbie Jordan Clarkson.
Edge: Warriors
Shooting guard
Klay Thompson (20.5 points, .462 FG%) vs. J.R. Smith (8.5 points, .356 FG%)
He is an All-Star, but Thompson remains under-the-radar with the galaxy of stars surrounding him on the Warriors. He is one of the game’s premier two-way players, a terrific defender who lights it up offensively with anyone. His size makes him another guy to stick on LeBron. Smith is a wild card. Again. He can shoot them in or shoot them out of any game. When he makes shots, life is easier for the Cavs. But you don’t know what you’re going to get beyond competitiveness, so his inconsistency hurts. He’ll be tough through familiarity, and when focused, he’s gritty athletically.
Edge: Warriors
Small forward
LeBron James (34.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, 8.8 assists) vs. Andre Iguodala (7.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists).
Pencil in LeBron anywhere and get “Edge: Cavaliers.” LeBron is, well, LeBron, still the best player on the floor. If you haven’t heard of him, here’s another tidbit: people do more than make calls with their phones. The Warriors will throw waves on him: Iguodala (if healthy), Green, Thompson, Durant to exhaust him. If James gets 35 and Durant gets 30, the Warriors win walking away. Iguodala — out for at least Game 1 with a leg injury — is an X-factor, giving Golden State a gritty defender in their small lineup that was so successful before his injury.
Edge: Cavaliers
Power forward
Kevin Durant (29.0 points, 7.1 rebounds) vs. Kevin Love (13.9 points, 10.0 rebounds)
Everybody switches, so this guy guards that guy, then that guy over there and so on. Love’s initial availability is in question for Cleveland (concussion protocol). Durant, also used all over, is arguably the NBA’s second-best player after LeBron. Durant has made an effort to be a better defender, another headache in his set of spectacular skills. He’s 7 feet, has great ball-handling skills, can stretch the defense or get to the rim. Somewhere, he’ll match up with James. Again, if Durant-James is a push, the Cavs have no chance. Love scores, rebounds, stretches the defense but defensively is wanting.
Edge: Warriors
Center
Draymond Green (11.1 points, 11.6 rebounds) vs. Tristan Thompson (6.1 points, 6.1 rebounds)
This depends on Iguodala’s availability. The Warriors could keep starting Kevon Looney. But if Iguodala plays — again, Game 2 at the earliest — Green anchors a small lineup. He leads the Warriors in postseason rebounds, steals, assists and blocks, impacting the game in so many ways, including emotionally. Green will spend a lot of time on LeBron – if not Green, then Durant, if not Durant then Iguodala, if not Iguodala then Thompson. They have great defenders everywhere. Thompson has played well since re-emerging. He’s a stud offensive rebounder and provides rim protection.
Edge: Warriors
Bench
Kyle Korver leads Cleveland’s sub pack. Obviously, a terrific threat from 3, he’s underrated defensively, one of the better team defenders around, not great one-on-one. Jeff Green, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. are making initial Finals trips. When Nance and Thompson play together, the Cavs have good energy and shot-blocking. The Warriors bench is basically hold the fort for the starters.
Edge: Cavaliers
Intangibles
Start off with home court. If it goes seven games, the Warriors are home – as defending champs – while the Cavs need to win a third straight series without that home court. Yes, LeBron has been superb, but getting misty over him playing 48 minutes against Boston needs to be tempered with a reminder: Wilt Chamberlain averaged 48.5 minutes one season, playing six overtime games.
Edge: Warriors
Coach
Both have rings. As a coach, Steve Kerr has two, Tyronn Lue has one. Go with numbers.
Edge: Warriors
Prediction
Warriors in 5. The Warriors are better than the Cavs at four positions. Bottom line: the Cavs can’t beat the Warriors four times.
Post predictions
Fred Kerber
Warriors in 5. The Warriors are better than the Cavs at four positions. Bottom line: The Cavs can’t beat the Warriors four times.
Marc Berman
Warriors in 6. Will be tougher series than Vegas projects as LeBron stopper Andre Iguodola appears more hurt than team is letting on. The “non LeBrons’’ sure get paid enough to step up in The Finals and expect gritty series by Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, George Hill (combined 2017-18 salary $59M).
Brian Lewis
Warriors in 5. Cleveland would need a superhuman effort from LeBron, near-flawless defense and red-hot shooting to win a game. Odds are they won’t get more than one.