World Cup odds 2018: Strong picks, predictions from model that's nailed knockout stage
We're down to just eight teams in the 2018 World Cup. Everyone from average Joes to professional bettors will lay down wagers on which country wins it all in Russia. Brazil is the 2018 World Cup favorite at 11-4 with eight countries left. France, England, and Belgium are right behind at 4-1 World Cup odds. The last three World Cup champions -- Germany, Spain, and Italy -- are all nowhere to be found. The action resumes on Friday at 10 a.m. ET, and before you lock in your 2018 World Cup picks, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote Soccermatics, the book that shows how math works inside the game. Together with experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the 2.5 seasons since it was born, the Soccerbot is up 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds. That's right -- 1,800 percent.
The Soccerbot is destroying the World Cup knockout stage: On Monday it was all over Brazil and Belgium to win in regulation, and on Sunday, it correctly predicted draws for Spain-Russia (+280) and Croatia-Denmark (+225). Earlier, the model nailed draws for Argentina-Iceland (+385) and Brazil-Switzerland (+360) and predicted Iran upsetting Morocco at +275, just to name a few of its big calls in both rounds. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up.
Now, with sportsbooks updating their 2018 World Cup odds to win heading into the quarterfinals, Sumpter's model has revealed every country's exact probability of winning it all. And you can find out who to target and who to fade only at SportsLine.
One huge surprise the model is calling for in the 2018 World Cup: Uruguay, going off with 14-1 odds, has a strong 13.1 percent chance of winning it all, far better than their odds imply.
Uruguay rolled through Group A with an undefeated record that included a 3-0 blanking of host Russia. It then took out Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in the Round of 16 to advance to the quarterfinals. This is a surprising pick, however, because the road will be extremely tough from here. Uruguay takes on favored France on Friday and then will face the winner of Brazil-Belgium in the 2018 World Cup semifinals.
But the model likes Uruguay's value at 14-1 because of the firepower of players like Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, who scored two goals against Portugal. Uruguay's World Cup odds 2018 imply just a 6.7 percent chance of winning it all, so this is a tremendous value pick.
The model has also identified a heavy favorite that you need to avoid like the plague. Backing this team could lead to a disastrous ending to your 2018 World Cup picks.
So which team has the best chance to win the 2018 World Cup? And which long shots can go all the way? Check out the updated odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see which teams have the best chance to win the 2018 World Cup, all from a European football expert whose model returned an 1,800 percent profit on the bookmakers' closing odds.
Brazil 11-4
France 4-1
Belgium 4-1
England 4-1
Croatia 13-2
Uruguay 14-1
Russia 18-1
Sweden 25-1