Super Bowl 2018 key matchups: Patriots defense can't let Eagles control the ball
Note: We're running two Key Matchup posts for Super Bowl LII. The other post focuses on the New England Patriots offense vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense.
The Eagles' pass-rush vs. Tom Brady might be the single biggest matchup of Super Bowl LII on Sunday. Making Brady uncomfortable is the best way to beat the Patriots, slowing down their offense in the process. Everyone knows that, and the Eagles will have to make every effort to ensure they do that.
But the Eagles' offense will also play a role in their upset attempt, while the Patriots' defense will play a role in New England's attempt to repeat as champion.
The Patriots lost just three times during the regular season. They possessed the ball for an average of 28:15 in those three games against the Chiefs, Panthers, and Dolphins, compared to an average of 31:10 in their 13 wins. They dominated the time of possession battle against the Titans in the divisional round and won the game rather handily. Once the Pats scored 21 unanswered points in the second quarter, the Titans had to move away from a ball-control offense and they never stood a chance.
For the Eagles, just as important as bothering Brady when New England has the football will be controlling the clock and keeping him off the field. The Eagles have the kind of diverse running game and powerful offensive line that can help them control the line of scrimmage and keep the ball away from New England's offense. They like to mix in three different running backs depending on down, distance, field location, and time on the clock, and each of them plays a different role. Jay Ajayi has taken over the lead in the backfield and he's the team's best all-around back, but LeGarrette Blount serves his purpose in short yardage and goal line situations, while Corey Clement provides flexibility on screen plays, motioning out wide, and taking advantage of scheme-specific matchups. The right side of Philly's line, in particular, excels at run-blocking, and the Eagles love to get their backs working behind Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks with a head of steam. (If they can get center Jason Kelce pulling around to lead the way, that's even better.)
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Given the Patriots' weak run defense (31st in yards per carry allowed; and 30th in run defense DVOA and 31st in opponent's Adjust Line Yards, per Football Outsiders), one would think the Eagles will be able to find success on the ground and thus maintain at least some control of the clock. But we saw in the AFC title game that merely winning possession is not enough. The Jaguars held the ball for 35:08 to the Patriots' 24:52 two weeks ago, but they still came away with a loss.
Part of the reason for that is that the Jaguars, after staking themselves to a 14-3 lead, started playing tight. Facing 4th-and-4 from the Patriots' 36-yard line in the third quarter, the Jags elected to kick a 54-yard field goal. Those three points extended their lead from 14-10 to 17-10, and another third-quarter field goal pushed it to 20-10. Still holding that 10-point lead early in the fourth quarter, the Jags had a 4th-and-1 from their own 42-yard line. They punted. The Pats drove right down the field for the first of two Brady-to-Danny Amendola touchdowns on the ensuing drive. Why spend the No. 4 overall pick on Leonard Fournette if you're going to get conservative in the AFC title game against the best quarterback in the history of the NFL? That's the time to trust the foundation of your offense to get you one yard and run some more time off the clock.
If the Eagles are faced with similar situations on Sunday, Doug Pederson would do well to acknowledge his team's underdog status and try to tip the odds in his favor by being ultra-aggressive. Luckily for the Eagles, being aggressive is natural for Pederson. According to Football Outsiders' Aggressiveness Index, Pederson was the third most aggressive coach in the NFL during the 2017 regular season, behind only the Dolphins' Adam Gase and the Raiders' Jack Del Rio. (Note: "The Aggressiveness Index excludes obvious catch-up situations: third quarter, trailing by 15 or more points; fourth quarter, trailing by nine or more points; and in the last five minutes of the game, trailing by any amount.") The Eagles went for it when faced with a 4th-and-1 on 14 of their 23 opportunities. That 60.9 percent go-for-it rate was second behind only the Saints, who faced just eight 4th-and-1 opportunities all year and went for it six times. The Eagles also went for it two out of four times on 4th-and-2, and five out of 11 times when faced with 4th-and-1 or 4th-and-2 between their opponent's 31 and 37-yard line. Their 4th-and-2 go-for-it rate was tied for the highest in the league, while their 31-to-37-yard line rate was eighth in the NFL. They were a very, very aggressive team all year long. They should have no problem continuing to be just that in the Super Bowl.
That aggressiveness should extend beyond just situational football to their play-calling. The Eagles love to use run-pass options (RPOs) to leverage a defense's aggressiveness and speed against them. Doing so allows the quarterback to read a single defender and make a decision whether to hand the ball off or pull it back and throw a quick-strike pass based on how that defender reacts after the snap. Carson Wentz executed these plays wonderfully all season prior to his injury. Nick Foles isn't quite the running threat Wentz is, but he has experience with RPO plays from his time playing with Chip Kelly and he's been fairly trustworthy when making simple read decisions that way. (He's far more trustworthy when making run-pass decisions than "should I throw into this tight window" decisions, for example.) The fact that the Eagles have several big-body receiving threats that are comfortable on the perimeter or the interior helps, because Foles can fire the ball into their body and trust them to shield closing defenders away from the football.
Zach Ertz is especially tough to cover on RPO plays because he's extremely fleet of foot for his size and he's excellent at selling his run-block before slipping into the middle of the field for a pop pass. Alshon Jeffery is the same way. The Patriots generally did well defending tight ends this season, but not many tight ends as an nimble and athletic as Ertz. They also struggled to contain big-bodied receivers like Jeffery on occasion. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess combined for 11 catches, 174 yards and two scores against the Patriots early in the season. Julio Jones had nine for 99 and a touchdown in the Falcons' loss to the Pats.
Getting linebackers and safeties to bite on run fakes before firing easy pop passes to big targets is a good way to keep the defense off balance, not only opening wider throwing lanes for Foles, but keeping the defensive front on its heels and allowing backs to make their way to the second level. That will help the Eagles accomplish their primary offensive goal of controlling the clock and minimizing the amount of time Brady and the offense spend on the field. If the Eagles can manage to do all that, it will greatly increase their chances of pulling off one more upset.