Scott Boras says Bryce Harper's slump is unrelated to looming free agency: Shifting has been 'grandly discriminatory'
Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is a pending free agent, which of course means that the current season is his walk year. While he's been productive overall, he's been disappointing by his own standards. Harper enters play on Wednesday with a 2018 slash line of .218/.366/.484 (125 OPS+) with 21 home runs in 83 games.
The low batting average stands out, yes, but Harper's willingness to take a walk (he's got 68 total walks/58 unintentional) and power lift his overall numbers into plus territory. There's no doubt, though, that more was expected of Harper in his pivotal age-25 campaign. His current OPS+ is down 33 points from last season and 15 points why of his pre-2018 career mark. That's not the trajectory you want to see.
Look, Harper's still going to get paid this coming winter. As noted, he's 25, and he's an established take-and-rake force at the plate. That said, the relative struggles are notable, and that's why Harper's agent, Scott Boras, is trying to explain them away in advance of his client's free agency.
Via MASN's Byron Kerr, we learn that Boras blames Harper's struggles in part on his not getting pitches to hit because of the "intimidation factor." Harper's NL-leading 10 intentional walks speak to that notion. Then there's this from Boras:
"I certainly have come to the conclusion where shifting is grandly discriminatory against power left-handed hitters," Boras explained. "And the reason for that is you see that four men are on one side of the infield. Against right-handed hitters, they have great advantages in this (setup) - they can only put 2 1/2 men there because they have to be near second base. The third baseman can play second base they can get four there because the second baseman can go too far away and the first baseman is way over."
Kerr's piece has more from Boras, so you'll want to give it a full read. For now, though, let's focus on Boras' citing of shifts as an underlying cause for Harper's struggles. In this very space, this very scribe not so long ago wrote about the effects of the shift on Harper's production. Let's update some numbers since it's been a while (via FanGraphs):
Harper this season has been subjected to an infield shift in 45.4 percent of his tracked plate appearances.
Harper last season was shifted in 33.1 percent of his tracked plate appearances.
Harper for his career has been shifted in 19.7 percent of his tracked plate appearances.
So Harper is being shifted more this season -- much more often relative to career norms. Here's more:
Harper this season is batting .248 with a .329 slugging percentage while being shifted.
Harper for his career is batting .311 with a .412 slugging percentage while being shifted.
Yes, he's been much less productive this season when facing a shift, and note that those career numbers are being dragged down by his 2018 numbers.
In that sense, Boras appears to be correct that Harper is being unduly hurt by the shift this season. Given a larger sample, those number should improve. On the other hand, it's on Harper to combat whatever an opposing defense throws at him, whether it's going the other way (easier said than done) or occasionally playing a little "Game Theory" with a bunt down the third base line. Mostly, though, hit it hard and in the air, and those infield over-shifts tend not to matter very much.
There's still roughly half a season to go, which means there's plenty of time for Harper to get at his level before the dollars start flying. Showing that this isn't some kind of permanent condition will mean more for his market than any "explanatory counteroffensive" undertaken by his agent.