Fantasy baseball owners should release this veteran slugger
One of the biggest problems fantasy baseball owners have at this time of year is deciding which way to go with a struggling veteran.
You look at track records and see years of stable production, but the current struggles have you asking yourself if this is the year the wheels finally fall off the wagon. You can’t cut them outright, but you also don’t want to sell them for pennies on the dollar for fear they will rebound to their usual form.
You also don’t want to be left holding the bag when the bottom falls out, like being the last one without a seat in a game of musical chairs. But though you need to stick it out with players such as Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion, it just might be time to end your relationship with Carlos Gonzalez.
Health is always a sticking point when you discuss a player like Gonzalez, but after two straight seasons of him playing at least 150 games, you have to turn your attention away from injuries. Players get hurt all the time and predicting them is an exercise in futility.
If Gonzalez gets hurt and misses time, you’re sitting on the short end of the stick with regard to offensive production anyway. So in this case, we must turn away from the health issue and turn our attention more toward actual production.
The 40 home runs he smacked in 2015 were a huge boost to fantasy owners, and many were back to touting him as one of the best all-around players in the game. Sure, there is the Coors Field effect, so until the Rockies actually trade him, it is something you need to calculate into his overall value. But when he dropped back down to 25 last season, a number much closer to his average numbers over the past five seasons, you had to be concerned.
There was nothing terribly off about his swing rates or the majority of his batted-ball data, but when you saw the steady increase in soft contact and subsequent dip in his isolated power (ISO), a number which measures a player’s raw power through extra-base hits, your acceptance of his decline should have been in order.
The increase in soft contact has continued this year, and now we’re seeing it affect some of his other batted-ball data. His line-drive rate has dropped significantly, the ground-ball rate is up, and though you may be able to blame the .192 average on some bad luck and a low BABIP, the fact that his GB/FB rate has increased steadily over the past four years should give you pause.
It is more than just being unlucky, and it isn’t like he is up there blindly hacking away. His plate discipline numbers actually continue to hover right around his career averages. He just isn’t able to put good wood on the ball anymore.
On top of the declining production, Gonzalez could be in trouble in other ways. Though no one expects Mark Reynolds to continue hitting at such a torrid pace, the Rockies have been forced to keep his bat in the lineup regularly, which has pushed Ian Desmond back to the outfield.
Yes, Gerardo Parra has been the one to go to the bench, but what happens when David Dahl is ready to return? The Rockies have been anxiously awaiting his return, but if Reynolds is at first, Desmond is in left and Charlie Blackmon remains entrenched in center, the team will have to decide between youth and upside versus a struggling veteran they’ve been thinking about dealing for the past two years.
It isn’t even like the team could platoon Dahl and Gonzalez, because both are left-handed bats, nor would you want to either. If you’re going to develop Dahl and allow him to blossom into the power/speed threat Gonzalez used to be, you have to give him a chance to play full-time.
Despite their current record, the Rockies unlikely are to make the playoffs, so the team needs to be looking ahead. Another exploration into the trade market seems more like a probability than it does a possibility.
Obviously, Gonzalez could work his way out of this mess with a strong performance, and this week’s homestand could be the catalyst, but how will that sustain with a road trip to one of their divisional rivals’ homes like pitcher-friendly Petco or AT&T Park? The team needs consistency, not just a guy who hits well at home, a notorious trademark of Gonzalez.
The club knows it needs to move on from their aging superstar, and having Dahl ready only helps usher Gonzalez out the door more quickly. As a fantasy owner, it is going to be your job to shove him out your door before the Rockies shove him out of theirs.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 4-6 p.m.