Breaking down Alvarez-Golovkin: How winner must box
LAS VEGAS — Saul “Canelo” Alvarez says he has dreamed of knocking out Gennady “Triple-G” Golovkin when they meet Saturday night for boxing’s middleweight championship at T-Mobile Arena.
“Every day and every night I visualize the knockout,” Alvarez said. “It’s something I train for. It’s not something I can predict. But it’s something I visualize.”
It says here Alvarez, of Guadalajara, Mexico, will have his hand raised, but his victory won’t come from a knockout, but by a close decision that will be controversial enough to demand what could be an even bigger rematch.
Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) is a slight underdog to the hard-punching Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs), of Kazakhstan. It’s a valid assumption considering Golovkin, the unified world champion, has made 18 straight title defenses of some version of the middleweight crown and owns the highest knockout ratio in the division’s history. But his invincibility was cracked a bit last March when Brooklyn’s Danny Jacobs went the distance with Golovkin, who earned a 12-round decision at Madison Square Garden.
The Golovkin camp viewed it as an assurance Golovkin could fight for 12 hard rounds. The Alvarez camp saw vulnerability as Jacobs was able to hold his own after an early knockdown.
“He has flaws,” Alvarez said of Golovkin. “They’re there. You just have to know where to find them and how to attack them. You’ll see Saturday night.”
Most view Saturday’s matchup as a 50-50 fight that will go one of two ways. Golovkin’s power and relentless attack ultimately will overwhelm Alvarez and lead to a middle to late-round stoppage. That’s how Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez sees it.
“I think it’s a difficult fight for three or four rounds,” Sanchez said. “I think the tactics will be determined at that point; what one guy’s going to do and what the other guy’s going to do. I think that Canelo’s is going to succumb to the physicality of Golovkin. I think towards the end of the fight, Golovkin will be too strong for him and he’ll hit him too much. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes 12.”
To go the distance, Alvarez will need to use movement, his jab and counterpunching skills to score points and win enough rounds to capture a decision. But Alvarez could be his own worst enemy.
It is Mexican Independence weekend and a sold-out T-Mobile Arena largely will be filled with Alvarez fans. That could prompt Alvarez to be filled with Mexican pride and go toe-to-toe with Golovkin, which would be a mistake.
Instead, Alvarez must not fight “Mexican style” as it’s called. He needs to be more Floyd Mayweather style: hit and not get hit. Whether Alvarez can perform well enough to pull it off is uncertain. He was brilliant using his boxing skills to defeat Miguel Cotto in November 2015, and hardly had a glove laid on him last May when he dominated Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Golovkin is no Chavez, but Alvarez keeps talking as if he’s ready for slugfest, though it may not be in his best interest.
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“There’s going to be a lot of punishment on both sides,” Alvarez said. “That’s how I envision the fight and that’s what I’m prepared for.”
Alvarez likes to fight off the ropes, but if he does that against Golovkin, he will lose. Jacobs was able to keep the fight in the middle of the ring during the later rounds against Golovkin and survived by standing tall and using his jab. Alvarez will have to take risks, but he has to take smart risks.
“If you don’t risk, you don’t run the chance of winning so you have to take risks,” Alvarez said.
The common thinking is Golovkin will be the bigger fighter. He has spent his entire career as a full-fledged middleweight, while Alvarez was mostly a junior middleweight. Both weighed in right at the 160-pound middleweight limit Friday. Both looked to be in tremendous shape.
“I’m not afraid of anyone. I’m going to show him who Canelo really is,” Alvarez said.
Golovkin called the bout a toss-up.
“It’s not as easy fight for him or for me,” he said. “A couple rounds will be close where he looks at my strategy and I look at his strategy. The second half will be like a street fight.”
That’s the last thing Alvarez needs.
Prediction: Alvarez by decision.