How to avoid a Latavius Murray fantasy football bust
There is nothing wrong with ordering the house brand liquor when you visit the local pub. It does the job in the manner you expect, even if it does so without fanfare or indulgence. But certainly, you likely rather would have the upsell if it is on special, and of course most would prefer the top shelf at the right price.
But you can’t always get what you want. (Damn it! Now that song is in my head.) Sometimes you can’t afford anything other than the house brand, and that’s OK. But what you don’t want to do is flaunt you tumbler of Aristocrat or Jim Beam. Know what you have, and act accordingly.
Such is the case with Latavius Murray. When rookie starter Dalvin Cook went down last week, Murray instantly became a hot waiver-wire pick. It isn’t often you can grab a running back who will get significant carries in a good offense on the wire.
Just realize what he is. He is Just Another Guy. And as a rule, you don’t play JAGs unless you’re desperate. Murray is Terrance West with better opportunities. He is a healthy Christine Michael on a better team. You can expect him to be about as refreshing as Isaiah Crowell has been this season.
The Madman isn’t suggesting you made a bad move in acquiring him, quite the opposite. Obtaining volume and opportunity is just as important as obtaining talent in single-season formats. And there will be some games when he plunges in a couple of times from a couple of yards out.
Nevertheless, you also can expect a healthy shot of 12-15 carries for 50-60 yards and no touchdowns. And that is not something you want in your lineup. The schedule doesn’t set up for an easy-to-target game, so at this point those rare fantasy bursts are difficult to identify beforehand.
One that doesn’t stack up great is this week against the Bears. At home this season, Chicago held the duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in check Week 1 (combined 53 rushing yards and one TD). The Bears limited Le’Veon Bell to 61 yards and a score (plus 37 receiving yards) in Week 3.
Last week at Green Bay, they knocked two Packers RBs out of the game. The Bears have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs.
So what you have this week is a house-brand running back going against an upsell run defense. We only like to use house brands against other house brands, and actively try to avoid using them against upsells, on the road, in their first start of the season, when there still is the lingering question of how much market-share he will get of snaps in the Vikings backfield — pass-catching specialist Jerick McKinnon will see plenty of action.
So, for many reasons, start Murray responsibly. Only use him if desperate. He is great for the bench, but if you start him, you might want to order a shot first.
Big Weeks
Josh McCown QB, Jets, at Browns (FanDuel $6,800/DraftKings $4,500)
The Browns have allowed a total of nine passing TDs plus two QB rushing TDs in four weeks. In a bind with injuries and byes and need a filler, or daily fantasy flyer, here you go.
Corey Clement RB, Eagles, vs. Cardinals (FD $4,500/DK $3,800)
Predicated on Ty Montgomery. Jones looked superior to Jamaal Williams, and Jones isn’t nursing a knee injury. Dallas hasn’t stopped a legitimate ground game yet.
Isaiah Crowell RB, Browns, vs. Jets (FD $6,100/DK $4,700)
Rare game in which it is possible they don’t get blown out, against one of the three worst fantasy run defenses.
DeVante Parker WR, Dolphins, vs. Titans (FD $6,100/DK $6,600)
This is it. Last chance.
Small Weaks
Cam Newton QB, Panthers (FD $7,800/DK $6,500)
One week against what was a terrible Patriots defense doesn’t make us forget the first three weeks of dysfunctional offense. Midweek-sexist-comment distraction doesn’t help.
Lamar Miller RB, Texans, vs. Chiefs (FD $6,500/DK $5,000)
A dud for three weeks then explodes against spiritless Titans, after loss of Marcus Mariota. Nope, count us among the non-believers.
Michael Crabtree WR, Raiders, vs. Ravens (FD $6,900/DK $6,400)
He is dealing with a chest injury. Team will be itching to get struggling Amari Cooper the ball. And all of this happens with backup QB EJ Manuel at the controls, and against a team that has allowed two WR touchdowns in four games and is the fourth-stingiest against fantasy WRs.
Jason Witten TE, Cowboys, vs. Packers (FD $5,400/DK $4,200)
Remember when Witten was one of the best fantasy tight ends? Most recently, that was two weeks ago. Since then, two total catches for 12 yards. Packers rank second against tight ends.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Hunter Henry vs. Evan Engram
Drew: Henry — Yeah, yeah, We know all about Henry getting a goose-egg two of the first four games. But we anticipate a change in that regard — Henry scored eight touchdowns in his rookie year last season, and we’re not ready to concede he somehow has become worse. But the real important thing is: The Giants have allowed five tight end TDs in four games, and those included one to Jason Witten (isn’t he already retired?) and one to Eric Ebron (he’s still in the league?).
Jarad: Engram — Despite the fact Engram is a rookie and going up against a defense that has not allowed a TD to opposing tight ends, he is far more consistent. Henry has been targeted 10 times all season (no targets Weeks 1 and 3), but Engram was targeted 11 times last week (30 times this season, eight per game). Sure, the Giants’ defense is terrible against tight ends, but Henry appears to be a part of the offense one week and invisible the next. Engram has a clear role in the offense and gets opportunities, with or without Odell Beckham Jr. on the field.
Last week: Jarad 8.9 (Christian McCaffrey — 6-16 rushing, 4-33 receiving), Drew 8.8 (Joe Mixon — 17-29 rushing, 4-19 receiving)
Season: Series tied, 2-2
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