Doomsday AI will cause nuclear war by 2040 that could destroy humanity
A devastating nuclear war that wipes out humanity could be brought about by artificial intelligence as soon as 2040, a leading security think tank has warned.
Advances leading to 'doomsday AI' machines could encourage nations to take apocalyptic risks with their nuclear arsenals, it claims.
During the Cold War, a condition called mutually assured destruction (Mad) maintained an uneasy peace between the superpowers.
Both sides of the conflict had little incentive to launch a nuclear attack, as it would have been met by a devastating retaliation that destroyed them.
However, advances in AI may mean that this is no longer guaranteed, opening up the potential of taking out an enemy's ability to counter attack - and there may be no way to prevent such a future.
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Artificial intelligence has the potential to upend the foundations of nuclear peace by the year 2040, a leading think tank has warned. 'Doomsday AI' machines could encourage humans to take potentially apocalyptic risks that could lead to a nuclear war and humanity's destruction
The claims were made by the Rand Corporation, a non-profit based in Santa Monica, California, that offers research and analysis to the United States armed forces on global policy issues.
It says that, in the coming decades, advances in AI could erode Mad's ability to keep nuclear nations in check.
Just like in the Cold War of the 1940s and 1950s, each side of future nuclear conflicts has reason to fear its opponent gaining a technological upper hand.
Improved AI agents, combined with more sensor and open-source data, could convince countries that their nuclear capabilities are vulnerable.
That, the report says, may cause them to take more drastic steps to keep up with countires such as the US.
'Some experts fear that an increased reliance on artificial intelligence can lead to new types of catastrophic mistakes,' said Andrew Lohn, co-author on the paper and associate engineer at Rand.
'There may be pressure to use AI before it is technologically mature, or it may be susceptible to adversarial subversion.
'Therefore, maintaining strategic stability in coming decades may prove extremely difficult and all nuclear powers must participate in the cultivation of institutions to help limit nuclear risk.'
WHAT IS MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION AND HOW IS IT THREATENED BY AI? During the Cold War that emerged after the Second World War, the United States and the Soviets built up enough nuclear weapons to kill everyone on Earth many times over. This arms race led to the concept of mutual assured destruction (Mad): Neither side could risk engaging in open war without risking its own ruin. This nuclear deterrent ensured that nations on both sides of the conflict would never push the red button, for fear of being wiped out themselves in a counter-attack. Instead, both sides stockpiled weapons and duelled indirectly via smaller armed conflicts and political disputes. During the Cold War, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (Mad) maintained an uneasy peace between the superpowers by ensuring that any attack would be met by a devastating retaliation With advances in AI, some of the assumptions surrounding the Mad doctrine may need to be reconsidered. Nations may in the future may entrust self-defence tactics – including launching attacks and counterattacks – to the rapid decision-making capabilities of an AI system. An AI could act more quickly and without the potential hesitation or dissent of a human operator. A fast, automated response capability could help ensure potential adversaries know a nation is ready and willing to launch, the key to mutual assured destruction's effectiveness as a deterrent. However, this quick AI response could also one day be sufficiently swift to eliminate any chance for an adversary to launch their counter attack. This would undermine the deterrent effect of Mad, as the destruction of both nations may no longer be guaranteed.
Another worrying scenario, the report claims, is that commanders could make decisions to launch strikes based on advice from AI assistants that have been fed wrong information.
As well as offering poor advice, such systems may also be vulnerable to hacking, opening up the possibility that malicious third parties trigger an - albeit brief - Third World War.
Just like the the Cold War in the 1940s and 1950s, each side of future nuclear conflicts has reason to fear its opponent gaining a technological upper hand. Students practice a duck and cover drill at a Brooklyn middle school, 1962
That being said, some argue that AI may enhance strategic stability in the future, by improving accuracy in intelligence collection and analysis.
Improved analytics for monitoring and interpreting an adversary's actions could reduce miscalculation or misinterpretation that could lead to unintended escalation, experts say.
Given future improvements, it is possible that eventually AI systems will develop capabilities that are less error-prone than their human alternatives and therefore be stabilising in the long term.
Rand researchers based their conclusion on information collected during a series of workshops with experts in nuclear issues, government branches, AI research, AI policy and national security.
The study is part of a broader effort to envision critical security challenges in the world of 2040, considering the effects of political, technological, social, and demographic trends that will shape those security challenges.
The full findings of the study 'Will Artificial Intelligence Increase the Risk of Nuclear War?' were published on Rand's website.