Brexit stats show just on in 10 Project Fear claims from Government came true
GETTY Just one in 10 forecast made by the Government in Project Fear came true, research reveals
The findings starkly expose the depths to which the Government-led campaign dubbed Project Fear stooped in its ultimately doomed bid to frighten voters off backing Brexit. The pro-Brexit group Change Britain issued its dossier on today's anniversary of the Treasury's first gloom-laden report assessing the likely impacts of a June 23 vote to leave the EU. Just two out of 19 key predictions made in four major Government papers in the run-up to the referendum can be shown to be true, said Change Britain.
Three quarters were either "false" or "likely false", and three were "only partially true". Change Britain chairman and leading pro-Brexit Labour MP Gisela Stuart said: "The Remain campaign fed the public with stories of doom and gloom but this analysis shows why voters were right to see through their scaremongering. "Growth continues to be upgraded, employment is at a record high and a number of multinational businesses have made major investment announcements into the UK.
"The British people had the confidence to reject Project Fear and back Project Hope.
The British people had the confidence to reject Project Fear Labour MP Gisela Stuart
"Outside the EU we can begin a process of national renewal and look forward to a strong and flexible economy which benefits everyone across the UK." Change Britain analysis of warnings in four documents issued by the Government in the run-up to the referendum identified what it said were seven demonstrably false statements. The Treasury claimed a Leave vote would cause "an immediate and profound economic shock", and that this would drive the UK into recession.
In pictures: Theresa May meets with EU's Tusk Thu, April 6, 2017 The two leaders held talks on Brexit negotiations Play slideshow AFP/Getty Images 1 of 9 European Council President Donald Tusk gestures to members of the media as he leaves 10 Downing street after talks with British Prime Minister Theresa May in central London
It also forecast 500,000 higher unemployment, and said uncertainty would reduce demand as firms and households put off spending decisions. Economic growth has in fact continued and the employment rate and consumer spending are both up. The Treasury was also wrong to claim that a Brexit vote would immediately push up the cost of borrowing, given the Bank of England cut the base rate, said Change Britain. It was asserted that people would "rightly expect" the formal Brexit process to start straight after a Leave vote but Theresa May gave herself time to prepare by waiting until last month, and statements by the US indicate it was wrong to warn America would want to do a trade deal with the EU before starting talks with the UK.
GETTY Change Britain released the dossier on the anniversary of The Treasury's first report
Another seven pre-referendum claims were branded "likely false", as things seemed to be developing differently to the Government's pre-referendum forecasts although the outcome is not yet certain. These include the Treasury claim that "significant access" to the EU single market would require the UK to accept continued open door immigration and that a free trade deal would reduce British firms' access to the single market, both of which ministers say is not the case. Statements by other countries suggest that the Government was probably wrong to warn that negotiating new deals with the EU and with other countries could take years. It was also "likely false" that Brexit would harm national security and reduce foreign investment in the UK. Three Government statements deemed "only partially true" were that there is no guarantee Britain can fully replicate existing cooperation on things like crime, that the UK would have to pay for significant access to the EU single market and that inflation would be 2.3 per cent higher after a year.
Inflation has risen by 1.8 per cent since last March, but has also increased in the eurozone. The two Government statements deemed "true" by Change Britain were that failure to reach an EU deal by the end of two years would see the UK leave without one, which Mrs May says she is prepared to do, and that a Leave vote would affect Britain's influence on EU decision-making. The UK is not allowed to join the other 27 countries when they discuss their Brexit strategy. A Government spokesman said: "Our long-term analysis examined scenarios based on existing alternative models to EU membership. "The Prime Minister has since made clear however that the UK aims to strike an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU that is of far greater scope and ambition than any such existing agreement. "And the Chancellor's Spring Budget provided a strong platform for the negotiations by investing in skills and training to build a high-skilled economy and spread opportunity around the whole country."
GETTY Just to of the 19 claims made by the Government can be shown to be true, claims the report