2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 odds, best values: Advanced computer model fading Kentucky
A wild opening weekend of the 2018 NCAA Tournament has sent many Vegas favorites home, while several long shots are positioning themselves for a title run. No. 2 Duke enters the Sweet 16 as the new overall favorite at 13/4, followed closely by Villanova at 9/2.
Duke, meanwhile, is also favored to win the Midwest Regional at 2/3 odds. Kentucky is the new favorite in the South at 5/6, Gonzaga leads the way in the West at 7/5, and Villanova is going off at 1/1 to win the East.
Before you make any kind of pick on which team wins any region, or who cuts down the nets in San Antonio, you need what SportsLine's advanced computer has to say.
This model has simulated every game of the NCAA Tournament 10,000 times and comes into the Sweet 16 on a blistering 17-4 run on its college basketball picks. It also knows when an upset is brewing, as it's nailed 12 of 18 upsets by double-digit seeds in the first round over the last three years. Now it has run the numbers for the 16 remaining teams and found some big value in the updated odds.
One thing we can tell you: the model says 7-seed Nevada is a major value to win the South Region.
The model gives Nevada a 28.8 percent chance of advancing out of the South, better than the implied probability of the 7/2 odds.
The Wolf Pack come into the Sweet 16 off a pair of dramatic wins during the opening weekend. They knocked off 10-seed Texas in overtime and then charged back from down 22 points to stun 2-seed Cincinnati. They won't be fazed by any team going forward.
Now, led by twins Caleb Martin (18.8 ppg) and Cody Martin (13.9 ppg), Nevada heads to Atlanta in a completely wide-open region that has already seen the top four seeds -- Virginia, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Arizona -- go home.
The model says you should back the Wolf Pack and stay away from 5-seed Kentucky because the Wildcats only have a 41.3 percent chance of winning the region, a much lower value than their odds would indicate.
The model has also found one region you should avoid like the plague because there are no strong values, and also says the wrong team is favored to win the whole tournament.
So which teams should you back to win the region titles and which squad is a better value than Duke to win it all? Visit SportsLine now to get the best value title picks for the NCAA Tournament, all from a proven model that enters the week on a 17-4 run on college basketball picks.