text: Nigel Farage, pictured after Reckless's defection to Ukip, is likely to look a little less smug after it was revealed the Rochester and Strood MP is facing an uphill struggle to keep his seat . The Tory MP who defected to Ukip to trigger the Rochester and Strood by-election is on course to lose the seat at the General Election. According to the latest secret polling bombshell to hit Nigel Farage’s party, Mark Reckless, who became Ukip’s second MP last November, faces an uphill battle to hold on to his 2,920 majority on May 7. The disclosure comes after Ukip was thrown into turmoil by last week’s leak to The Mail on Sunday of a survey showing Mr Farage trailing the Tories in his target seat of Thanet South. The private Rochester data is understood to put Mr Reckless narrowly behind the Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst, who he defeated in November’s by-election. When Mr Reckless stood for the Tories at the 2010 Election he had a majority of just under 10,000 votes. As with the Thanet South poll, the party has decided against publicising the figures in case supporters are demoralised. A senior Ukip source said: ‘It is not looking easy for Mark, but we are hopeful the figures are misleading.’ However, another source added: ‘We aren’t that bothered because Reckless isn’t particularly popular.’ Some analysts think Ukip could be left with just one MP – Douglas Carswell, who won Clacton in a byelection with a 12,000 majority. Last night Ukip denied the party had itself commissioned polling in Rochester but said: ‘We always knew it would be a tough fight.’ Ukip convert Mark Reckless faces an uphill battle to hold on to his 2,920 majority in Rochester and Strood .
target: Reckless' by-election majority of 2,920 in Rochester and Strood my be lost .
  It's just the latest secret polling bombshell to hit Nigel Farage’s party .
  Top Ukip source said: ‘It is not looking easy for Mark, but we are hopeful'