Only one vote matters. In the United States, the vote that gives
a presidential candidate the majority in the state that tips the
electoral college decides it all. Nevertheless, about 122
million US voters went to the polls for the 2008 Presidential
election. If the only benefit you get from voting is your
candidate winning, this behavior is totally irrational. Voters
spend precious time and effort traveling to the polls or
arranging for mail-in ballots, with very small odds that this
will make any difference in the final outcome. Of course, the
simplest explanation is that this argument is wrong and voting
can be rational, but you could also say that voting is self-
expression. In a recent paper (gated), Douglas VanDerwerken
takes a slightly different approach. He estimates a one in 2.5
million chance that his vote will matter this year, given that
he lives in North Carolina (a competitive state in 2008, and
likely in 2012 too).* But then he points out that, “Even if your
vote does not have an effect on the e