|El NiĆ±o-Southern Oscillation The most common way of monitoring
the El NiĆ±o-Southern Oscillation phase is by looking at sea
surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The
animated map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies over
the past three months. Warm/positive anomalies are associated
with the El NiĆ±o phase, while cool/negative anomalies are
associated with the La NiĆ±a phase. Several climate models also
provide ENSO forecasts, again based on sea surface temperatures
over a specific region in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The
graph below shows the observed ENSO phase for the previous
three-month period (as a red circle near the left side of the
image), along with computer model forecasts for the next year-
and-a-half. The light blue square represents the model consensus
forecast. In North Carolina, a warm/positive phase (El NiĆ±o)
event is often associated with cooler, wetter conditions and an
increased chance of winter weather. Likewise, a cool/negative
phase (La NiĆ±a) event often br