Worst-case thinking means generally bad decision making for
several reasons. First, it’s only half of the cost-benefit
equation. Every decision has costs and benefits, risks and
rewards. By speculating about what can possibly go wrong, and
then acting as if that is likely to happen, worst-case thinking
focuses only on the extreme but improbable risks and does a poor
job at assessing outcomes. Second, it’s based on flawed logic.
It begs the question by assuming that a proponent of an action
must prove that the nightmare scenario is impossible. Third, it
can be used to support any position or its opposite. If we build
a nuclear power plant, it could melt down. If we don’t build it,
we will run short of power and society will collapse into
anarchy. If we allow flights near Iceland’s volcanic ash, planes
will crash and people will die. If we don’t, organs won’t arrive
in time for transplant operations and people will die. If we
don’t invade Iraq, Saddam Hussein might use the nuclear weapons
he might have. If we d