School shootings are uncommon and unpredictable. As such, they
might be classified as “Black Swans”, events which are random
yet produce extreme impacts. It is perhaps more productive to
focus on what is known about such attacks and direct mitigation
measures accordingly. ONLINE EXCLUSIVE I was originally going to
write this article in the summer of 2012, after the Aurora
shootings. I was gathering data for that piece when the Sandy
Hook shootings occurred. I listened, in numbed sadness with the
rest of the country while the pundits opined upon the reasons 20
children and six adults had their lives ended, suddenly,
violently and without apparent reason. The more liberal media
discussed gun control . Others stressed the mental state of the
shooter. All were searching, if not for a reason, then a
solution. Both are tragically, elusive. The answer may lie not
in traditional risk assessment models but in a modified
methodology that takes into account the unpredictable nature of
such events, likely targets (vulner