This study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel
production from the world’s major biofuel producers (the US,
Brazil and the EU) over the next decade on poor households in
one country—China. Using two modeling platforms created to
account for: (a) the global interactions of regional biofuel and
food markets; and (b) the supply, demand and trade inside China
in response to shocks in world markets, the analysis aims to
provide answers for the following questions. First, how will the
rise in demand for biofuels affect food prices, production and
trade at a global level? Second, how will the development of
global biofuels affect prices, production, trade and the
unskilled wage in China? Thirdly, what are the distributional
impacts of these global and domestic market changes from
biofuels among different income and regional segments of China’s
food economy? Biofuels production levels at the mandated
requirements, as set out by the domestic governments of the
largest producers, will increase both prices and