Emory dynamic simulation model shows targeted use of antiviral
agents might be effective intervention until adequate supplies
of vaccine become available ATLANTA – In a future outbreak of
pandemic influenza, such as the three pandemics that sickened
millions and killed hundreds of thousands of people during the
20th century, supplies of flu vaccine might not be available
quickly enough to contain the spread of disease. However,
according to research by biostatisticians in Emory University's
Rollins School of Public Health, many thousands of deaths could
be prevented if antiviral agents were given to the close
contacts of those with suspected cases of flu until adequate
supplies of vaccine could be manufactured and distributed. The
results of the research by Emory professors of biostatistics Ira
Longini, Jr,, PhD, and M. Elizabeth Halloran, MD, DSc, and their
colleagues Azhar Nizam, MS, and Yang Yang, BSc, will appear
online on March 26, and will be published as a special article
in the American Journal of Epi