Date: August 18, 1995 Creator: Riva, Joseph P Description:
Deficient productive capacity has not yet caused an oil crisis,
but that does not mean it never will. Significant increases in
world oil demand will have to be met primarily from Persian Gulf
supplies. This is a region with a history of wars, illegal
occupations, soups, revolutions, sabotage, terrorism, and oil
embargoes. To these possibilities may be added growing Islamist
movements with various antipathies to the West. If oil
production were constrained, oil prices could rise abruptly
along with adverse world economic repercussions. If the IEA and
EIA are correct on the demand side, deficient world oil
productive capacity could cause an oil crisis within 15 years
and political disruptions in Saudi Arabia could cause one
sooner. However, if the increases in world oil demand were more
moderate, and there is long-term relative peace in the Middle
East, with increasing foreign participation in upstream oil
activities, a business as usual world oil deman