As the Reserve Bank of India struggles to rein in the overall
rate of inflation, there is reason to fear that food price
inflation could worsen because of a poor Southwest monsoon.
Despite a late revival, the area-weighted rainfall during the
Southwest monsoon period (1st June to 30th September) was only
92 per cent of its long-period average. The cumulative seasonal
rainfall was deficient in a third of the country and in excess
of normal in 67 per cent of its area. This is the third year
over the five years ending 2012-13 when the Southwest monsoon
has been deficient, with the other two being 2008-09 and
2009-10. That is particularly bad news since Indian agriculture
is still substantially rainfall dependent with only around 45
per cent of its cropped area having access to assured
irrigation. According to the Reserve Bank of India, rain-fed
agriculture accounts for around 56 per cent of the total cropped
area, with the figure being 77 per cent in the case of pulses,
66 per cent for oilseeds and 45 per cent f