NOAA’s updated outlook for the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season
indicates a 45% probability of an above-normal season, a 45%
probability of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a
below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division
(HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s
definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The
outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming
hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes. This
predicted activity reflects a likely continuation of increased
hurricane activity that began in 1995, reiterating our pre-
season outlook issued May 17. This outlook is based on favorable
conditions now in place in association with the ongoing active
Atlantic multi-decadal signal, which includes warmer than normal
sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. However, weak
El Niño conditions are possib