East Asia’s 21st Century Could be Like Europe’s 20th Century
Will the unfolding of economic, technological and political
trends in East Asia result in a 21st Century environment as
chaotic and violent as that experienced by Europe and, as a
consequence, the entire world in the last century? The current
economic transformation of East Asia is similar in many ways to
that which Europe and the United States went through in the 19th
and early 20th centuries. The last time the world experienced
the combination of explosive economic growth based on rapid
industrialization, swift technological advancement, the
globalization of trade and mass movements of people from rural
to urban environments the consequence were two world wars,
numerous revolutions and countless atrocities. Then, like now,
many political scientists and pundits sought reasons why war
between states had become outmoded. It was argued that trade
ties would deter conflicts. Politics, particularly the rise of
democratic governance, would inhibit govern