A rise in the number of new houses under construction, as
occurred in November, surely means the economy is about to boom.
A fall in retail sales, which occurred at the same time, surely
means the economy is cooling off. Orders for goods that people
keep for several years, such as cars and refrigerators, rose in
September. They fell in October. In the first half of December,
the number of people filing new claims for unemployment
increased. But what do the statistics mean? Which ones are
important? And do any of them reliably predict the future of the
economy? Is a recession ahead? Has it already begun? Piece by
piece, the thousands of economic statistics that the federal
government and private industry tabulate every month help paint
the picture of the national economy that drives financial
decisions by individuals, businesses and government. "I think of
it as a huge jigsaw puzzle with tiny little pieces, and every
day I get a couple of new ones," Stuart Hoffman, chief economist
with PNC Financial Services G