Explaining Bayes' Theorem Date: 03/22/99 at 15:02:47 From: Kevin
Battisfore Subject: Bayes' Theorem I need an easy to understand
explanation of Bayes' Theorem to begin my math project for the
math fair. What I want to illustrate is similar to the Monty
Hall problem in that the subject chooses one door, is shown a
second door, and has the option of switching from the first
choice. I know the odds improve (from 1/3 to 2/3) if you switch,
but I'm not sure how to explain this in terms of Bayes' Theorum.
I have seen the archived explanations of the Monty Hall problem,
but I need the Bayesian background in terms my 7th and 8th grade
classmates will understand. Thanks for your help. Date: 03/22/99
at 17:02:53 From: Doctor Anthony Subject: Re: Bayes' Theorem A
suitably simple example to make Bayes' theorem clear is the
following: You have 6 coins of the same denomination in a bag. 5
of them are standard coins, but the 6th is double-headed. You
take one coin at random from the bag and toss it 4 times. It
comes up head