A new carbon cycle model developed by researchers in Europe
indicates that global carbon emissions must start dropping by no
later than 2015 to prevent the planet from tipping into
dangerous climate instability. The finding is likely to put new
pressure on the world’s top two carbon emitters — China and the
US — both of which were widely blamed for failure to reach a
binding global accord on carbon reductions in Copenhagen last
December. Furthermore, the non-binding outcome of Copenhagen has
global carbon emissions peaking in 2020 — five years too late,
according to the latest model. The model, developed by
researchers at Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,
suggests the world’s annual carbon emissions can reach no more
than 10 billion tonnes in five years’ time before they must be
put on a steady downward path. After that, the researchers say,
emissions must drop by 56 per cent by mid-century and need to
approach zero by 2100. Those targets are necessary to prevent
average global temperatures from