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Scientists Develop New Method to Quantify Climate Modeling
Uncertainty An ORNL study could help quantify data in climate
models, such as the regional temperature increases (contour
lines) and heat wave intensity (shades of color) over two
decades simulated here under a fossil-fuel intensive scenario.
(hi-res image) The new approach suggests that the range of
uncertainty in climate projections may be greater than
previously assumed. One consequence is the possibility of
greater warming and more heat waves later in the century under
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) high
fossil fuel use scenario. The team performed an ensemble of
computer "runs" using one of the most comprehensive climate
models--the Community Climate System Model version 3, developed
by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)--on each
of three IPCC scenarios. The first IPCC scenario, known as A1F1,
assumes high global economic growth and continued h