Get those emergency supplies ready. Caltech scientists working
with the United States Geological Survey have modeled the next
big quake based on last week’s temblor in China. Here’s their
scenario for a 7.8 magnitude event along the San Andreas fault
in Southern California: _10 a.m.: The San Andreas Fault
ruptures, sending shock waves racing at 2 miles per second. _30
seconds later: The agricultural Coachella Valley shakes first.
Older buildings crumble. Fires start. Sections of Interstate 10,
one of the nation’s major east-west corridors, break apart. _1
minute later: Interstate 15, a key north-south route, is severed
in places. Rail lines break; a train derails. Tremors hit
burgeoning Riverside and San Bernardino counties east of Los
Angeles. _1 minute, 30 seconds later: Shock waves advance toward
the Los Angeles Basin, shaking it violently for 55 seconds. _2
minutes later: The rupture stops near Palmdale, but waves march
north toward coastal Santa Barbara and into the Central Valley
city of Bakersfield. _3