The question on a lot of peoples’ minds is when the next
recession will take place. Our international political economy
class was wondering the same thing. So we decided to look at
that very question, using a little economic history. Using data
from the National Bureau of Economic Research
(http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html), we found that the
average economic growth length since the NBER started
calculating this information (back in 1854) has been 38.73
months. So how long have we been growing the economy? The growth
spurt began back in June of 2009, 43 months, so you could say
we’re overdue for a recession. In fact, LaGrange College
undergraduates Matt James and Kristoffer Appel found that the
economy has already begun to contract
(http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jan/30/us-economy-
surprise-shrink?INTCMP=SRCH and
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/30/u-s-economy-
contracts-for-first-time-since-recession/). Our “Great
Recession” lasted 18 months. It sure seemed like a long time,
but