Researchers looked at changes in the behaviour of bluetongue – a
viral disease of cattle and sheep - from the 1960s to the
present day, as well as what could happen to the transmission of
the virus 40 years into the future. They found, for the first
time, that an outbreak of a disease could be explained by
changes to the climate. In Europe, more than 80,000 outbreaks of
bluetongue were reported to the World Animal Health Organisation
between 1998 and 2010, and millions of animals died as a result
of the disease. Bluetongue was previously restricted to Africa
and Asia, but its emergence in Europe is thought to be linked to
increased temperatures, which allows the insects that carry the
virus to spread to new regions and transmit the virus more
effectively. Researchers produced a mathematical model that
explains how the risk of an outbreak of bluetongue virus in
Europe changes under different climate conditions. The team
examined the effect of past climate on the risk of the virus
over the past 50 years to unde