First, I have to give them props for using the term "forecast"
rather than "predict". I know a number of volcanologists who are
touchy about using "predict", because any conclusions about what
a volcano may or may not do are necessarily based on
probabilities, just like a weather forecast. When people start
thinking that we can say for certain when a volcano will erupt,
we get the blame when it doesn't, and they have to deal with the
consequences of precautionary evacuations - or if it erupts
sooner and takes everyone by surprise. It's very important that
people know that no scientist can be 100% sure when a volcano
will erupt and what it will do - voclanoes are simply too
complicated. (ASTER image of Bezymianny volcano lava flow from
NASA Visible Earth image archive) Ramsay and Carter (together
with U.S. scientists at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks and
Russian experts at Kamchatka's Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology) worked at Bezymianny volcano, using the FLIR to
record temperature increases in th