By creating a mathematical model of the way overconfident
individuals compete against ordinary individuals, they show that
there is a clear advantage in overconfidence. In fact, if the
potential reward is at least twice as great as the cost of
competing, then overconfidence is the best strategy. In fact,
overconfidence is actually advantageous on average, because it
boosts ambition, resolve, morale, and persistence. In other
words, overconfidence is the best way to maximize benefits over
costs when risks are uncertain. But it is Johnson and Fowler's
predictions that are most worrying. Their model implies that
optimal overconfidence increases with the magnitude of
uncertainty. So the greater the risk, the more overconfident
individuals should become. Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009 Monday, September 28, 2009
Elsewhere, Jonah Lehrer profiles Clay in Outside magazine,
discussing the advantages Asperger's gives Clay, including the
ability to focus on surfing for 8-9 hours at a time. Satu