Now that our local weather has settled into the more routine
summer pattern of sunny, hot days, clear, mild nights and the
generally southwesterly flow that can bring the occasional
higher-terrain thundershower, let’s pause to look at models
weather forecasters use to make short and longer-term outlooks.
It might help you understand the unexpected ripples that visit
us. As with any predictive model, accuracy decreases as the
forecast period lengthens. It is not hard to understand why a
forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours would be inherently more
accurate than one looking longer into the future. The atmosphere
is wildly dynamic, and its constantly changing parameters of
pressure, temperature, humidity and wind — among other factors —
make for a shape-shifting, protean target that can prove
extremely difficult to hit. Many of weather models combine a
snapshot of current conditions blended with the climatology of
the forecast area and the outcomes of similar past scenarios to
produce outlooks forecasters can ho