Scott Adams (creator of geek must-read Dilbert, whose blog is
great reading for intelligent cynics) posts today on the Monty
Hall Problem and the Double Slit Experiment, arriving at the
conclusion that reality is subjective. His conclusion is not,
however, a logical deduction from the evidence that he presents.
Einstein’s maxim that any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic is proven once again. First, look
at the Monty Hall Problem (read up here if you’re not familiar
with it). Mr. Adams states that “If reality were objective,
statistics wouldn’t be influenced by knowledge.” Statistics,
however, are not based in reality–they are based in probability.
As outcomes are eliminated by the host’s knowledge in this
problem, the probabilities, and therefore the statistics, change
to match. To restate the problem, you have three unknown
outcomes, one of which is desirable. You randomly select one of
the three outcomes without knowing what it is. Obviously, you
have a 1 in 3 chance of select