After 2 seasons when only one hurricane made landfall
(Humberto), these experts say we’re in for a bumpy season.
Today, Drs. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach predicted 15 named
storms in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. They
expect 8 of them to become hurricanes, and of those 8, 4 are
expected to develop into “intense or major hurricanes”
(Categories 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or worse.
Long-term averages (1950-2000) are 9.6 named storms, 5.9
hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. Why? The
tropical-storm joy-boys (who’ve been wrong for the past 2 years,
thankfully) say current conditions are similar to those we last
saw in the 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000 seasons, and all had well
above-average activity. Gray and Klotzbach also predict: - A 69%
chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on
the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is
52%). - A 44% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall
on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle we