Even though Democrats have carried the Gopher State in eight
consecutive presidential elections dating back to 1976, and 16
of the past 19, Minnesota has rightfully earned its reputation
as a purple battleground state when it comes to presidential
politics. Despite the Democratic dominance, the margin of
victory in presidential elections has been historically slim in
Minnesota in recent generations, and overall quite competitive.
In the state's first 20 votes for president, from 1860 to 1936,
only 3 races were competitive—decided by 10 points or less
(1892, 1912, and 1916). An equal number of elections decided by
more than 30 points (Teddy Roosevelt's 55-point victory in 1904,
Warren Harding's 51-point victory in 1920, and FDR's 31-point
victory in 1936). The average margin of victory in Minnesota
across these twenty elections was a large 22.8 points. By
contrast, during the past 17 elections (1940-2004) 10 of the 17
races were competitive, with an average margin of victory of
just 8.8 points across these 17