29 November 2010 | EN Average growing period for crops may
reduce (grey and black areas) by 20 per cent (black) in Africa
over the next 80 years Thornton et al. (2010)/The Royal Society
2010 A widespread farming catastrophe could hit Africa if global
temperatures rose by four degrees Celsius or more, according to
a study that calls for urgent planning for a much warmer future
and investment in technology to avert disaster. In most of
southern Africa the growing season could shrink by as much as a
fifth, according to scientists at the International Livestock
Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, who carried out simulation
studies based on existing climate change models. The 'four
degrees plus' scenario is increasingly being contemplated as
negotiations, which began again in Cancún, Mexico, today (29
November–10 December), have stalled on measures aimed at
limiting the global temperature rise to two degrees. Drastic
changes to farming will be needed under such a scenario, said
Carlos Seré, director-general of ILR