Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased
significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of
colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey
bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of
different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and
development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager
death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population
size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold
rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is
inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death
rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much
younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony
failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be
understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee
population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for
experimental investigation of the problem. Full paper:: David S.
Khoury, Mary R. Myerscough and Andrew B. Barron (2012) A Qua