The economic expansion in the United States turned 115 months
old in October 2000, exceeding even the 106-month expansion of
the 1960s associated with the war in Vietnam. The current
expansion is, in fact, the longest in the economic history of
the U.S. Today, total U.S. civilian employment is about 134
million people. Average annual growth rates for gross domestic
product (GDP) and productivity during the first half of the
1990s were not very impressive: they were similar to those that
prevailed after 1973 and substantially below those in the
earlier post-World War II expansions. GDP growth after 1973,
while slower than in earlier periods, was bolstered by increases
in female labor force participation rates and in the volume of
hours worked. Productivity growth between 1973 and 1995,
however, averaged 1.4% a year, only half the 2.9% rate at which
it grew between 1961 and 1973. Since the second half of the
1990s, however, both productivity and GDP have grown at rates
that rival the high growth years of the 19