Tidal marshes and the services they provide are products of the
shifting interface between oceans, estuaries, and upstream
watersheds. NHI is working in South San Francisco Bay to develop
an analytical framework to investigate this interface under
current and potential future conditions. A central tenet is that
change in ecosystem services provided by tidal marshes cannot be
based solely on sea level rise. Importantly, the fresh water and
sediment issuing from watersheds could aid in mitigating service
reductions due to climate change, while still providing
watershed services. The watersheds of many intertidal zones are
heavily managed and opportunities likely exist for climate
change adaptations. The project will link a set of models to
produce estimates of water and sediment flux to the intertidal
zone, then simulate and predict the distribution of wetlands and
marsh vegetation classes under sea level rise and changes in
salinity. Multiple scenarios to drive the models will be derived
from sea level rise sc