More on Lake Erie Temperature Trends & Gardening in the Great
Lakes Thursday, I posted about observed water temperature
increases at the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant site. To remove
the seasonality from the data (and better discern trends), I
converted all of the data since 1960 to an annual departure
relative to the 1960-2012 period. So far, 2012 has averaged 2.8C
above the mean for the 1960-2012 period. The current warmest
year on record is 1998 at +1.8C above the mean. The annual water
temperature has been increasing at 0.29C per decade since 1960.
Perhaps more stunning is the decrease in number of days with a
water temperature of 32F during that period. These readings are
taken 35' below the surface, so when the surface is covered or
substantially covered in ice, the water temperature is usually
32. The chart shows that the annual number of 32F readings has
been decreasing at a rate of over 1 day per year! In recent
years, the rate of change appears to be increasing. Both 2012
and 1998 had 0 such days, w