People interested in the progress of engineering often refer to
a principle that has been called "Amara's Law," usually stated:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short
run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Examples of
this rule in practice will occur to everyone. We think that the
cause of this is to be found in the unanticipated consequences
of technical advances. The electric telegraph was exciting
enough as a means of conquering distance and time; no one could
foresee that the challenge of automating the reception of
telegrams would lead, eventually, to the digital computer and
the Internet. Most technical advances are marked by an initial
period of promise and confusion, when the "early adopters"
figure out what the new thing can do immediately and locally.
This is followed by a longer period of quiet development, during
which an ever-larger number of users with more and more diverse
interests and concerns become familiar with the technology, and
apply it in diverse way