Quantitative concepts: probability Teaching recurrence
intervalsby Dr. Eric M. Baer, Geology Program, Highline
Community College Jump down to: randomness | forecasting vs.
recurrence | How to calculate | Teaching Examples and Resources
Essential ConceptsGenerally, there are four concepts that our
students struggle with when studying recurrence intervals: - the
concept of a recurrence interval - the idea that random events
that are independent of previous events - the difference between
recurrence intervals and forecasting - how to calculate
recurrence intervals when data have variable magnitudes and when
they don't. Recurrence intervalWhen geologic events are random
or quasi-random, it is helpful to represent their frequency as
an average time between past events, a "recurrence interval"
also known as a "return time." For instance, there have been 7
subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest in the past
3500 years, giving a recurrence interval of about 500 years. How
do geologists use this concept?R