An Iraqi worker operates valves at the Nahran Omar oil refinery
near Basra, Iraq. AP Photo/Nabil al-Jurani, File "Oil: The Next
Revolution" The Unprecedented Upsurge of Oil Production Capacity
and What It Means for the World Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy
School Author: Leonardo Maugeri, Roy Family Fellow, Geopolitics
of Energy Project Belfer Center Programs or Projects: The
Geopolitics of Energy Project EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Excerpt)
Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is
growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might
outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction
and a steep dip in oil prices. Based on original, bottom-up,
field-by-field analysis of most oil exploration and development
projects in the world, this paper suggests that an unrestricted,
additional production (the level of production targeted by each
single project, according to its schedule, unadjusted for risk)
of more than 49 m