Moore predicted that chip power – measured by the number of
transistors on a chip – would double every 18 months, driving
down the cost of computing. Said the godfather of the
microprocessor, speaking on the fortieth anniversary of the
publication of his visionary law this morning: “Nothing like
this can continue forever. The dimensions are small enough now
that we are approaching the size of atoms. I can see that [the
law] will progress for the next two to three generations. We
have 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit.” Even
so, developments in chip design will allow engineers to put 20
to 30 billion transistors on a chip, he predicted. This will
overcome many of the limitations presented by working at atomic
level on chip design. Moore admitted he was a sceptical about
whether nanochips would replace tradition integrated circuits.
He said the semiconductor industry had invested $100bn on the
research and development on integrated circuits. “We are seeing
technology developed in integrated cir