The debt hawks are to economics as the creationists are to
biology. Recessions and recoveries ultimately are associated
with money, and more specifically with money growth. In general,
less money growth = less economic growth. (That actually is
something of a tautology, since economic growth is measured in
money.) There are several definitions of money, most differing
on the basis of liquidity, the ease of converting to currency.
The most liquid form is called M1, which consists of currency
and checking account deposits. The government no longer measures
the less liquid forms, M3, L and the most inclusive form: Debt
of Domestic Non-Financial Sectors. And for many reasons, the
supplies of the various money forms do not move together. For
instance, there are periods when M1 goes up or down more than
M2, even though M1 is part of M2. I found an interesting pattern
relative to recessions. In the following graph, you see a strong
tendency for one form of money, Federal Debt Held by the Public,
to grow more slowly