Natural disasters hurt incumbents As Hurricane Sandy leaves
millions without power across the East Coast, many commentators
have argued that at least one person may benefit from the storm:
President Barack Obama. But seeing Sandy as only an electoral
benefit for the president ignores accumulating evidence on how
“acts of God” influence elections. That evidence shows that
voters often punish the incumbent party for adverse events, even
events seemingly beyond any president’s control. For example,
one of us was part of a team that examined how tornadoes affect
voting behavior. We found that voters in counties which
sustained damage in election years were 1 point to 2 percentage
points less likely to vote for the incumbent. While most states
affected by Sandy are reliably Democratic, even small changes
could affect close House and Senate races in New Jersey and
Pennsylvania, or in a swing state such as Virginia.Continue
Reading A Princeton study found that American voters punished
the incumbent presidential part