An article recently posted by The New York Times calculates a
victory by Barack Obama if the election were held today. The
FiveThirtyEight forecast works by simulating the Electoral
College, with inclusion of factors such as the economy. The
simulation also accounts for states’ patterns of behaving like
geographically similar states rather than ones more distantly
located. The forecast model relies heavily on polling and this
has been a very close polling year for the two presidential
candidates. State polls generally show a favored outcome to
President Obama, while nationally the polls are too close to
call. It is noted, however, that changes to the economic
situation could impact predictions as the election draws closer.
The article goes on to break down the possibility of a number of
potential outcomes. These include swing state potential, state
by state projections, and scenario analysis. The FiveThirtyEight
forecasting model provides a simple way of looking at the
projections and there will be updates th