Change comes hard to Western water policy. The Prior
Appropriation Doctrine, interstate compacts, groundwater law,
the "law of the river" -- all of these seem set in stone in the
minds of the region's policymakers. Of course, the West's rivers
aren't bound by such a static existence. Indeed, they are
changing in fundamental ways, opening a wide chasm between our
water policy and our water sources. This is particularly true
for the Colorado River Basin. Climate scientists are predicting
a 10-to-30 percent reduction in flow for the Colorado -- a stark
contrast to the rosy assumptions that underlay the Colorado
River Compact when it was signed 88 years ago. Researchers from
the Scripps Institution of Oceanography recently predicted that
Lakes Mead and Powell have a 50 percent chance of going dry by
2021. These days, Lake Mead is at 45 percent capacity and Lake
Powell is at 57 percent capacity. Farther south, water shortages
are predicted for northern Arizona communities, including
Flagstaff, by 2050. The Central