The Washington Post picked up on the latest update to the 2005
temperature anomaly analysis from NASA GISS. The 2005 Jan-Sep
land data (which is adjusted for urban biases) is higher than
the previously warmest year (0.76°C compared to the 1998 anomaly
of 0.75°C for the same months, and a 0.71°C anomaly for the
whole year) , while the land-ocean temperature index (which
includes sea surface temperature data) is trailing slightly
behind (0.58°C compared to 0.60°C Jan-Sep, 0.56°C for the whole
of 1998). The GISS team (of which I am not a part) had predicted
that it was likely the 2005 would exceed the 1998 record (when
there was a very large El Niño at the beginning of that year)
based on the long term trends in surface temperature and the
estimated continuing large imbalance in the Earth’s radiation
budget. In 1998 the last three months of the year were
relatively cool as the El Niño pattern had faded. For the 2005
global land-ocean index to exceed the annual 1998 record, the
mean anomaly needs to stay above 0.