First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak If Intelligent life
exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing
power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their
transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction
from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial
Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth
Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his
prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien
civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in
computing power. Shostak, whose calculations will be published
in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta
Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations
in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio
signals. For this he used a formula created in 1961 by
astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number
of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be
expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with a