The image of a backed-up highway leading away from the scene of
a natural disaster may soon be history, if researcher Yi-Chang
Chiu and his colleagues at the University of Arizona have their
way. They've developed a traffic simulator that uses real-time
traffic data along with detailed state and federal traffic
statistics and behavior modeling to allow officials to simulate
disaster evacuations in real time -- or even predict the course
of events as a disaster is happening. The software adjusts for
such varied data as driver reactions to radio reports and wind
dispersal of smoke and other pollutants; it even calculates the
number of casualties and their effect. Chiu has been building
the simulator since 1995, and he's ready to start selling to
state transportation and medical emergency agencies.
Interestingly, Chiu says his real research focus is on
calculating optimum "value-priced" toll rates -- something we're
certain most state transportation departments regard as the real
disaster.