While Vilhelm Bjerknes and his team were developing their
synoptic models in Bergen, a radically different approach to
forecasting was being pursued by Lewis Fry Richardson.
Richardson's starting point was the system of fundamental
physical principles governing atmospheric motion. He assembled
the set of mathematical equations which represent these
principles and formulated an approximate algebraic method of
calculating their solution. Starting from the state of the
atmosphere at a given time - the initial conditions - the method
could be used to work out its future evolution. Using the most
complete set of observations available to him, Richardson
applied his numerical method and calculated the changes in the
pressure and winds at two points in central Europe. The results
were something of a calamity: Richardson calculated a change in
surface pressure over a six-hour period of 145 hPa, a totally
unrealistic value. As Sir Napier Shaw remarked, the wildest
guess would not have been wider of the mark! Despite t