So how about the Frankenstorm? Here the waters get muddied.
There is a hierarchy of weather events which scientists feel
they understand well enough for establishing climate change
links. Global temperature rises and extreme heat rank high on
that list, but Hurricanes rank low. As the IPCC special report
on extreme events put it “There is low confidence in any
observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in
tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency,
duration), after accounting for past changes in observing
capabilities.” The reasons for “low confidence” are manifold.
Some part of the caution comes from the complexity of the
problem, and some part comes from the lack of good data before
the satellite era (about 1970). Thus, many climate scientists
will not want to go out on a limb for hurricanes. They just
don’t have the tools to make strong inferences. This is not to
say progress isn’t being made. One thing that does seem clear is
that warmer oceans (a la global warming) mean more evapora