2050 and all that The Department of Energy and Climate Change
has produced a new DIY energy supply-and-demand model, running
up to 2050, developed under the supervision of Prof. David
MacKay, DECC’s chief scientific advisor. You can try it out:
http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/. It allows you to vary
the energy supply mix so as to try to meet emission targets in
line with various possible demand patterns, including charging
electric car batteries overnight. Following the line adopted in
earlier DECC scenarios, what emerges is that it’s hard to stay
in balance and get emissions down, without nuclear and Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS). The model tests the ability of the
chosen supply mix to meet demand during a five-day anticyclone,
with five days of low wind output and an increase in heating
demand associated with the cold weather. But there are ways to
balance variations like this, and the DECC report on ‘2050
energy pathways’, which sets the model in context, does explore
some of these options. Even