There are two things to note here. First, there was a huge fall
in the poverty rate throughout the 1960s, and in particular
after LBJ announced the War on Poverty in 1964 and followed up
with Medicaid, Medicare, greater federal housing spending, and
other programs to fight that war. In 1964, the poverty rate was
19 percent. Ten years later, it was 11.2 percent, and it has not
gone above 15.2 percent any year since then. Contrary to what
you may have heard, the best evidence indicates that the War on
Poverty made a real and lasting difference. Second, since the
permanent decline achieved during the 1960s, most of the
variation in the poverty rate has been cyclical: it goes up in
recessions and down during booms. During the early 1980s
recession, the rate spiked, only to fall again when the labor
market recovered later in the decade. Same thing with the early
1990s recessions and late ’90s boom. And the current recession
has spurred an increase again. The most recent numbers we have
are for 2010, and that year’