Future heat vulnerability in California, Part I: projecting
future weather types and heat events AbstractExcessive heat
significantly impacts the health of Californians during
irregular but intense heat events. Through the 21st century, a
significant increase in impact is likely, as the state
experiences a changing climate as well as an aging population.
To assess this impact, future heat-related mortality estimates
were derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the
remainder of the century. Here in Part I, changes in oppressive
weather days and consecutive-day events are projected for future
years by a synoptic climatological method. First, historical
surface weather types are related to circulation patterns at
500mb and 700mb, and temperature patterns at 850mb. GCM output
is then utilized to classify future circulation patterns via
discriminant function analysis, and multinomial logistic
regression is used to derive future surface weather type at each
of six stations in California. Five different