It has become a common refrain at the White House and among
administration supporters that President Obama's aggressive
efforts to stimulate growth prevented an economic catastrophe.
"We had to hit the ground running and do everything we could to
prevent a second Great Depression," Obama told supporters last
week. Politically, the claim makes sense. Casting the challenge
Obama faced as immense can help explain the economy's lackluster
performance in the two years since the recession officially
ended. But is it an accurate portrayal of what really happened?
IBD reviewed records of economic forecasts made just before
Obama signed the stimulus bill into law, as well as economic
data and monthly stimulus spending data from around that time,
and reviews of the stimulus bill itself. The conclusion is that
in claiming to have staved off a Depression, the White House and
its supporters seem to be engaging in a bit of historical
revisionism. Economists weren't predicting a Depression. White
House economists forecast i