This is Jerry McManus' follow-up to his very insightful article,
Modeling Collective Behavior, and it delves into the scientific
meaning of a commonly-used, but sometimes misunderstood term of
complex systems theory - "tipping point". I have briefly added
to his discussion of tipping points in forest ecosystems and
financial systems by referencing a recent report produced by
Goldman Sachs on the Eurozone crisis (marked within the text).
Other than that, it's all Jerry! So, without further ado...
Modeling Tipping Points The term "tipping point" crops up
frequently, especially in discussions of world events such as
financial collapse and climate change. Like the word
"sustainable" which gets used with increasing abandon, and often
with little thought to the actual meaning of the word, so too
the term tipping point can be elusive and used in contexts where
it may or may not be suitable. I've probably been guilty of this
myself, but recently my thinking on the subject has been greatly
clarified and I hope to pass