File:Climate Change Attribution.png From Global Warming Art This
figure, based on Meehl et al. (2004), shows the ability with
which a global climate model (the DOE PCM ) is able to
reconstruct the historical temperature record and the degree to
which the associated temperature changes can be decomposed into
various forcing factors. The top part of the figure compares a
five year average of global temperature measurements (Jones and
Moberg 2001) to the Meehl et al. results incorporating the
effects of five predetermined forcing factors: greenhouse gases,
man-made sulfate emissions, solar variability, ozone changes
(both stratospheric and tropospheric), and volcanic emissions
(including natural sulfates). The time history and radiative
forcing effectiveness for each of these factors was specified in
advance and was not adjusted to specifically match the
temperature record. Also shown are grey bands indicating the 68%
and 95% range for natural variability in the five year average
of temperature as determined fro