This piece was published as part of The Future of Afghanistan
and U.S. Foreign Policy, a collaboration between the Chicago
Project on Security and Terrorism and ForeignAffairs.com. The
future of Afghanistan is crucial for three reasons. First, after
a Marxist coup in 1978 shattered the patient process of 50 years
of state formation, it has become increasingly unclear whether
the territory bounding what we think of as Afghanistan can again
become a sovereign state. Second, should a stable state fail to
reemerge in Afghanistan, the political and economic costs to its
neighbors and much of the world are certain to rise. Third and
finally, how the international community approaches Afghanistan
has direct consequences for other states whose futures are
similarly in doubt and whose continuing failure generates
similarly troubling negative externalities. Afghanistan
exemplifies a significant dilemma of modern foreign policy. The
United States must either reconsider the merits of colonialism
in some form, establishin