March 6, 2013 | 7 Investigating what is sometimes seen as one of
the more favorable effects of climate change, a pair of
scientists from UCLA has done a careful analysis of the melting
of Arctic sea ice and concluded that it could lead to ships
traversing the ice-free Northwest Passage (NWP) by 2050. It
would also lead to much shorter transit times through the
existing North Sea Passage (NSR). These developments may greatly
reduce the time and cost of shipping but would also lead to
unforeseen economic and geopolitical complications. The study
looked at estimates of sea ice melting – gathered from both
models and observations including satellite measurements – and
then used seven different climate models to calculate the
decrease in sea ice and its impact on shipping over the next few
decades. The models are General Circulation Models (GCMs) that
have been routinely used by the IPCC to estimate diverse impacts
of climate change, including changing ice and sea levels. From
the IPCC predictions the authors used