Print version ISSN 0042-9686 Bull World Health Organ vol.80 n.4
Genebra Jan. 2002 OBJECTIVE: To make quantitative predictions
about the magnitude of underreporting of human rabies deaths in
the United Republic of Tanzania. METHODS: Human rabies deaths
were estimated by using a series of probability steps to
calculate the likelihood of rabies developing after the bite of
a suspected rabid dog, incorporating field data on the incidence
of animal bite injuries, the accuracy of rabies recognition, the
distribution of bite wounds, and post-exposure treatment.
FINDINGS: Predicted human rabies mortality was estimated to be
(a) 1499 deaths per year (95% confidence interval 8912238),
equivalent to an annual incidence of 4.9 (2.97.2) deaths/100
000, when active surveillance data on bite incidence were used,
and (b) 193 deaths per year (32409), corresponding to an annual
incidence of 0.62 (0.11.32) deaths/100 000, when national bite
statistics were used. The annual mean number of rabies deaths
officially recorded for th