By Patrick Van Inwegen, Ph.D. Unfortunately, no one really knows
the answers to these important questions, because social
movements like this are so incredibly complex that we cannot
know what will happen in any particular situation. This
complexity is driven by the fact there are two levels at which
there are too many possibilities to reliably know. First,
individuals like Mubarak (and probably another 50 or so key
people in Egypt and the world in this situation) are driven by
complex psychological factors. How can we reliably predict how
far any one is willing to go in an unforeseen context, even a
few days in advance? Second, these individuals are responding to
complex events that are beyond anyone's control. Factors such as
cell phone usage, Internet access, Twitter, events in Tunisia,
coverage by Al Jazeera, perceptions of foreign tourists, and
other aspects of civil society (both global and local) are all
shaping the context for the demonstrations and the government's
response. These factors continually