2010年12月29日 | EN Early warnings about risks posed to the ozone
layer were a minority view Flickr/NASA Goddard Photo and Video
Experts offering scientific advice will serve policymakers best
by communicating uncertainties and by breaking with the current
practice of giving overly simplified messages about risk, says
Andy Stirling. Scientists called on to offer policy guidance
tend to do so with definitive answers — a single interpretation
of the available evidence, which is considered best practice.
The uncertainties end up hidden away in quantified measures of
risk, leaving no room for different interpretations. This does
not go far enough to ensure a complete understanding of
scientific information, says Stirling, and leaves science advice
open to political manipulation by special-interest groups. There
is a need to move from a narrow focus on risk to broader and
deeper understanding of incomplete knowledge, he argues.
Accepting that knowledge is complex by nature promises to
deliver guidance that is more ri