By Matthew Biddle and David R. Legates. Better building
preparation and public shelters will increase survival rates.
After tornadoes ripped through Tuscaloosa, AL and Joplin, MO,
many called for greater efforts to enhance tornado forecast lead
times and provide more time for people to take shelter and save
lives. The video and pictures showing families grieving for lost
loved ones are scenes that few will quickly forget.
Unfortunately, many people wait until they see a tornado
approaching or hear the proverbial “freight train” sound before
taking action. Humans often exhibit a normalcy bias where both
the possibility of disaster and its potential effects are
greatly underestimated. Warnings are often interpreted too
optimistically, meaning an additional five minutes of advance
warning will likely not be heeded. The National Weather Service
(NWS) 70% false alarm rate complicates matters. While tornado
forecasting is an inexact science and the NWS does the best it
can, too many false alarms make people think a