VIENNA – As is customary at the start of a new year, imposing
statistics and trend forecasts are being trumpeted worldwide.
For example, in 2016, China is expected to replace the United
States as the world’s largest economy. And, by 2040, India’s
population will have reached 1.6 billion, surpassing China’s,
which will have stagnated a decade earlier. Perhaps the most
startling projection is that the US will become an energy
exporter by 2020, and will become energy self-sufficient 15
years later, owing to the plentiful supply of inexpensive shale
gas and the discovery of massive oil reserves everywhere from
North Dakota to the Gulf of Mexico. Despite opposition from
environmental groups, these reserves will be easier to exploit
than those in Europe, because they are largely located in
sparsely populated areas. As a result, energy will be
significantly cheaper in the US than in Europe or China for the
foreseeable future. Indeed, shale-gas extraction is so
economically favorable that even American gas exported t