The BLS revision also shows that seasonally adjusted employment
fell by 335,000 more jobs in the first half of 2008 than was
previously reported. You would think that this might make NBER’s
case that the recession was in progress during early 2008
stronger. To an extent, yes; but their case is nowhere near
strong enough — at least not yet. Comparing the first half of
2008 to previous recessionary and non-recessionary periods gives
plenty of justification to doubt NBER’s call. Here is how NBER
defined a “recession” in its December 2008 announcement: A
recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread
across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally
visible in production, employment, real income, and other
indicators. … Because a recession is a broad contraction of the
economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes
economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee
believes that domestic production and employment are the primary
conceptual measures of economic acti