A Tale of Two Lakes: One Gives Early Warning Signal for
Ecosystem Collapse First experimental evidence that radical
ecosystem change can be detected in advance Researchers
eavesdropping on complex signals from a remote Wisconsin lake
have detected what they say is an unmistakable warning--a death
knell--of the impending collapse of the lake's aquatic
ecosystem. The finding, reported in the journal Science by a
team of researchers led by Stephen Carpenter, an ecologist at
the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison), is the first
experimental evidence that radical change in an ecosystem can be
detected in advance, possibly in time to prevent ecological
catastrophe. "For a long time, ecologists thought these changes
couldn't be predicted," says Carpenter. "But we've now shown
that they can be foreseen. The early warning is clear. It is a
strong signal." "This research shows that, with careful
monitoring, we can foresee shifts in the structure of ecosystems
despite their complexity," agrees Alan Tessier, pro