title: Learning Information Propagation in the Dynamical Systems via Information Bottleneck Hierarchy
abstract: Extracting relevant information, causally inferring and predicting the future states with high accuracy is a crucial task for modeling complex systems. The endeavor to address these tasks is made even more challenging when we have to deal with high-dimensional heterogeneous data streams. Such data streams often have higher-order inter-dependencies across spatial and temporal dimensions. We propose to perform a soft-clustering of the data and learn its dynamics to produce a compact dynamical model while still ensuring the original objectives of causal inference and accurate predictions. To efficiently and rigorously process the dynamics of soft-clustering, we advocate for an information theory inspired approach that incorporates stochastic calculus and seeks to determine a trade-off between the predictive accuracy and compactness of the mathematical representation. We cast the model construction as a maximization of the compression of the state variables such that the predictive ability and causal interdependence (relatedness) constraints between the original data streams and the compact model are closely bounded. We provide theoretical guarantees concerning the convergence of the proposed learning algorithm. To further test the proposed framework, we consider a high-dimensional Gaussian case study and describe an iterative scheme for updating the new model parameters. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits on compression and prediction accuracy for a class of dynamical systems. Finally, we apply the proposed algorithm to the real-world dataset of multimodal sentiment intensity and show improvements in prediction with reduced dimensions.
authors: Gaurav Gupta Mohamed Ridha Znaidi Paul Bogdan
hIndex: Paul Bogdan 34