title: Universal Off-Policy Evaluation
abstract: When faced with sequential decision-making problems, it is often useful to be able to predict what would happen if decisions were made using a new policy. Those predictions must often be based on data collected under some previously used decision-making rule.  Many previous methods enable such off-policy (or counterfactual) estimation of the _expected_ value of a performance measure called the return.  In this paper, we take the first steps towards a 'universal off-policy estimator' (UnO)---one that provides off-policy estimates and high-confidence bounds for _any_ parameter of the return distribution. We use UnO for estimating and simultaneously bounding the mean, variance, quantiles/median, inter-quantile range, CVaR, and the entire cumulative distribution of returns. Finally, we also discuss UnO's applicability in various settings, including fully observable, partially observable (i.e., with unobserved confounders), Markovian, non-Markovian, stationary, smoothly non-stationary, and discrete distribution shifts. 
authors: Yash Chandak Scott Niekum Bruno Castro da Silva Erik Learned-Miller Emma Brunskill Philip S. Thomas
hIndex: Erik Learned-Miller 40