Determinants of Box Office Performance: Return of the Regressions
Brewer, Kelley, and Jozefowicz (2009) used data from the late 1990s to the early 2000's in order to determine what made a movie a success at the box office. I replicate their study using data from 2014 to 2018. Ex ante, production budget, critical reviews, horror and comedy movies were all significant at the one percent level. Ex post, the same variables plus number of screens, summer and holiday release, star power, and word of mouth were significant at the one percent level. "Very difficult to understand American audience, what they like, what they don't like. Some movies I like very much, it doesn't work. Some movies I don't like, it gets big box office. Very difficult." Jackie Chan