Credibilidade do regime de metas para inflacao no Brasil
This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relation between credibility and management of the interest rate for monetary policy in Brazil after the adoption of inflation targeting. The relation between the credibility (measured by several indices) and the basic interest rate for monetary policy is verified under two perspectives: the target defined by Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee, and the rate which is prevalent in the financial market. The results confirm the hypothesis that a high credibility requires minor variations in the interest rate for the control of inflation after the adoption of inflation targeting. REFERENCIAS AGENOR, P. TAYLOR, M. P. Testing for credibility effects. IMF Staff Papers, v. 39, n. 3, p. 545571, Sep. 1993. AKERLOF, G. A. DICKENS, W. T. PERRY, G. L. The macroeconomics of low inflation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, n. 1, p. 1 76, 1996. BACEN Banco Central do Brasil. Carta aberta ao Ministro de Estado da Fazenda. 2002, 2003, 2004. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 20 de novembro de 2005. Helder_Gustavo 2.pmd 26/09/07, 15:09 270 271 Credibilidade do regime de metas para inflacao no Brasil ______. Series temporais. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 1 de abril de 2007. BRUNILLA, A. LAHDENPERA, H. Inflation targets: principal issues and practical implementation. In: HALDANE, A. G. (Ed. Targeting inflation. Bank of England, 1995. p. 119 134. CECCHETTI, S. G. KRAUSE, S. Central bank structure, policy efficiency and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships. Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, v. 84, n. 4, p. 47 59, Jul. Aug. 2002. CUKIERMAN, A. MELTZER, A. H. A theory of ambiguity, credibility, and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information. Econometrica, v. 54, n. 5, p. 1.099 1.128, Sep. 1986. DAVIDSON, R. MACKINNON, J. G. Estimation and inference in econometrics. New York: Oxford Economic Press, 1993. DRAZEN, A. Political economy in macroeconomics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2000. MENDONCA, H. F. de. Metas para a taxa de cambio, agregados monetarios e inflacao. Revista de Economia Politica, v. 22, n. 1 (85) p. 34 52, jan. mar. 2002. ______. Mensurando a credibilidade do regime de metas inflacionarias no Brasil. Revista de Economia Politica, v. 24, n. 3 (95) p. 344 350, jul. set. 2004. ______. Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience. Applied Economics, 2006. Forthcoming. ELLIOT, G. ROTHENBERG, T. J. STOCK, J. H. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, v. 64, p. 813 826, 1996. FAUST, J. SVENSSON, L. E. O. Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals. NBER, Mar. 1998 (Working paper, n. 6.452) GARCIA, M. G. P. Meia decada de metas para a inflacao. Valor Economico, 05/08/2004. GUJARATI, D. N. Econometria basica. Sao Paulo: Makron Books, 2000. IPEA Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada. Base de dados macroeconomicos Ipeadata. Brasilia: Ipea. Disponivel em: Acessado em: 1 de novembro de 2005. NAHON, B. F. MEURER, R. A relacao entre a credibilidade do Banco Central e a inflacao no Brasil do regime de metas inflacionarias. In: ENCONTRO DE ECONOMIA DA REGIAO SUL. 8. Porto Alegre, 22 23 de setembro de 2005. Anais eletronicos. Porto Alegre, Anpec Sul, 2005. Disponivel em: ORPHANIDES, A. WIELAND, V. Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. Federal Reserve Board, 1998 (Working paper) SICSU, J. Expectativas inflacionarias no regime de metas de inflacao: uma analise preliminar do caso brasileiro. Economia Aplicada, v. 6, n. 4, p. 703 711, 2002. SVENSSON, L. E. O. How should monetary policy be conducted in an Era of Price Stability? NBER, Feb. 2000 (Working paper, n. 7.516) (Originais recebidos em marco de 2007. Revistos em junho de 2007. Helder_Gustavo 2.pmd 26/09/07, 15:09 271 pesquisa e planejamento economico ppe v.37 n.2 ago 2007 272