Climate change driven accelerated sea level rise detected in the altimeter era
Significance Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ~3 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea level rise by 2100 ~65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y. Using a 25 y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, Jason 2, and Jason 3, we estimate the climate change driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 0.025 mm/y2. Coupled with the average climate change driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences