A synchronized model for crash prediction and resource allocation to prioritize highway safety improvement projects
Urban intersections are key locations of traffic crashes that contribute significantly to the economic losses. Safety management process undertaken by most states in the United States (U.S) is often referred to as the hazard elimination program which consists of three steps: (1) selections of hazardous locations, (candidate locations) where safety improvements are warranted, (2) development of countermeasures for potential reduction of crashes, (3) allocation of resources among the independent candidate locations in conformance to budgetary and other constraints. Often these three steps are independently considered with very limited detail on each step in the state planning agencies. This paper presents a simultaneous model which predicts the occurrence of crashes and allocates resources by maximizing benefits subjected to budget and other constraints. The analysis is carried out for a planning period of five years. The crash prediction is analysed as a negative binomial model. The resource allocation model is solved using branch and bound algorithm. Prediction and allocation is conducted simultaneously to achieve realistic results rather than analysing both steps independently. The allocation model further prioritizes the projects to be implemented to optimally distribute funds to maximize benefits. Model results reveal that the proposed approach can be used as a tool for resource allocation on highway safety projects for urban intersections.