The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID 19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea
Background In the Republic of Korea (ROK) social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID 19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non pharmaceutical measures on short and long term outbreak dynamics. Methods A mathematical model based on Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered model is developed considering isolated and behavior changed groups. Using the least squares fitting method, transmission and behavior change rates were estimated using cases reported from February 16 to April 20, 2020. Findings The estimated transmission rate of COVID 19 was 4*6180 and behavior change rate was 2*6044. The model predicted the number of new cases to continuously decrease, with less than one case expected after May 6, 2020. Concurrently, a 25% reduction in behavioral changes during the outbreak would increase the case count by 60,000, resulting in 4,000 cases at maximum, exceeding the medical system's capacity. As behavioral restrictions are eased, local transmission will likely increase, with forecasted second wave peak in October 2020. Interpretation Social distancing and public behavior changes have curbed the spread of COVID 19 in the ROK. Mathematical modeling demonstrates the importance of these measures in reducing and delaying outbreaks. Nevertheless, non pharmaceutical interventions cannot eliminate the disease. In the future, vaccines and antiviral treatments combined with social distancing and public behavior changes will be paramount to ending COVID 19 epidemic.
PloS one