But the global economy could be weaker in 2013 than it was in 2012 if the worst continues to prevail in Europe and the US, particularly if the new US Congress cannot work with a re-elected President Barack Obama to find a budget deal that improves the medium-term credibility of the US fiscal position while avoiding excessive deficit cutting. This is a difficult balance to achieve, and, without pressure from the markets, I am unsure how it will play out.