In the medium and longer term, the expected and hoped-for increase in China’s domestic consumption should be the most dynamic element of demand, with export growth continuing to slacken and investment remaining – except for brief periods – below 50% of GDP. This is not guaranteed, however, as progress in establishing social insurance – crucial to increasing consumption – has been relatively slow, while monetary transfers to families (such as those that have been implemented in Brazil, Mexico, and elsewhere in Latin America) might not be feasible, given the logic of China’s political system.