The IMF forecasts the debt-to-GDP ratio in the US to rise to 85% by 2014 (prompting the rating agency Moody’s to threaten a downgrade in America’s bond ratings), and to 82% in Germany, 85% in France, 126% in Italy, and 144% in Japan. As recovery continues, this public-sector debt will increasingly crowd out private-sector, local-government and developing-country borrowing.