JERUSALEM – The pattern of policymaking in the Middle East, as it was defined since President Bush’s “axis if evil” speech of January 2002, is undergoing a momentous change of direction. Bush’s foreign-policy paradigm of an alliance of “moderates” to defeat the “extremists” – a model too enthusiastically seconded by an unimaginative Israeli leadership and by those Arabs (led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia) who dread the forces of radical change – has collapsed.