Assuming slower growth in the labor force than in the past decade, no rise in productivity due to capital accumulation, and a decline in multifactor productivity growth to its pre-2000 average implies that annual potential GDP growth will be only 1.4%. Combining these conservative assumptions about potential GDP with the effect of the cyclical rebound – an estimated 1.2% annual rise in real GDP – would produce real GDP growth at an average annual rate of 2.6%, which would be significantly higher than the 1.9% rate in the decade ending in 2009.