In 2011, after both prices had recovered from the collapse induced by the 2008 credit crisis, the five-year price started to come down gradually, while the spot price continued to surge for a while. This jibed with what I had identified as two big factors fundamentally driving the price of oil: the early days of the exploitation of shale oil and gas in the United States, and the shift in China’s economic focus from quantity to quality, which implied that the Chinese economy would no longer be consuming energy at the frenetic rate it had been.