The second group consists of countries with debt problems, above all the United States. While the US is expected to grow by 3.3% this year and by 2.9% next year – roughly the long-term average for the past 30 years, this cannot be called a self-sustained upswing, given that the fiscal deficit is expected to reach a breathtaking 11% of GDP this year, before easing to a still-high 8.2% in 2011.