Assad knows that the election of a president who bolsters Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence would make Syria’s return difficult – and Assad, as even his allies privately admit, wants nothing less. Indeed, it was his decision to extend, unconstitutionally, the term of the reliably pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud as Lebanon’s president in 2004 that triggered the political crisis leading to Hariri’s murder and the emergence of a coalition of anti-Syrian groups, which included many former Syrian allies.