A couple of years ago, we did a survey of some of the world's leading A.I. experts, to see what they think, and one of the questions we asked was, "" By which year do you think there is a 50 percent probability that we will have achieved human-level machine intelligence? "" We defined human-level here as the ability to perform almost any job at least as well as an adult human, so real human-level, not just within some limited domain.