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Input: It would seem as if Zimbabweâs military has  President Robert Mugabe  backed into a corner.
The 93-year-old has been held under army supervision since the military took over the airwaves on Nov. 14  and tanks patrol the still quiet streets of the capital  Harare. His former vice president-turned-rival Emmerson Mnangagwa  whose abrupt dismissal the week before triggered the political crisis  is back in the capital and determined to take powerâseemingly with the blessing of the armed forces. Meanwhile  Zimbabweans are already celebrating the downfall of a dictator who has held the country in  his  iron grip for the past 37 years.
Yet  Mugabe  refuses to relinquish power before elections slated for April 2018  even as the military  the opposition and members of  his  own party insist that stands down immediately and hand power to Mnangagwa. And he can. Because he holds a trump card: the fear that the militaryâs power play could be called a military coup.
You could be forgiven for thinking that this was indeed a coup â despite the armyâs insistence it has not taken over the government. Zimbabwean intelligence reports  cited by Reuters  suggest that Mnangagwa may have been planning for Mugabeâs exit with the military for more than a year. And Zimbabweâs military chief General Constantino Chiwengaâs recent trip to Beijing to meet with the Chinese defense minister  though billed as a ânormal military exchange â is now raising questions. China maintains a close diplomatic and economic relationship with Zimbabwe  and its support for any change in government would be vital.
If the military does force  Mugabe  out of power  even with the support of the populace  it would still be considered a coup. That would automatically trigger suspension from the African Union as well as the 15-nation Southern Africa Development Community  and all of their activities. The region  and even European nations would likely impose economic sanctions. Zimbabwe would have trouble getting development assistance or even loans from international banks. And even the United Statesâ limited engagement with Zimbabwe would have to be dialed back. The U.S. Foreign Assistance Act ârestricts assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.â That means that U.S. support for family planning  HIV/AIDS prevention  governance programs and  ironically  democracy promotion  could be cut.
If  Mugabe  stands down on  his  own  however  the political transition maintains a veneer of legality that ensures the next government  whatever it looks like  has a soft landing and the chance of international economic assistance. âIf this transition  for which Zimbabweans and friends of Zimbabwe have been waiting for such a long time  is to have a chance of succeeding it will need international engagement â says J. Peter Pham  director of the Atlantic Councilâs Africa Center. Zimbabwe is already in economic freefall  beset by hyperinflation and unemployment so high that an estimated 3 million citizens are now living in neighboring countries. âNo one wants to provoke a crisis that will send even more Zimbabweans fleeing over the border.â
Even members of Mugabeâs own party  Zanu PF  seem to understand whatâs at stake. The party is working on its own transition plan  senior officials told Reuters on Friday  drafting a resolution to impeach the president if he refuses to stand down. âThere is no going back â the official told Reuters. âIf he becomes stubborn  we will arrange for him to be fired on Sunday. When that is done  itâs impeachment on Tuesday.â
In the meantime  Harareâs streets remain calm  and Zimbabweanâs characteristic black humor about their own predicament remains intact: âMugabe is suddenly a real Zimbabwean: an adult with several degrees just sitting idly at home â tweeted @CynicHarare  a self-proclaimed âdetractorâ from Harare.

Zimbabwe Military Doesn't Want Mugabe 's Removal Called Coup