Definition: In this task, you're given a statement and three sentences as choices. Your job is to determine the neutral choice based on your inference from the statement and your commonsense knowledge. The neutral choice is a sentence that neither agrees nor disagrees with the statement. Indicate your answer as '1', '2', or '3', corresponding to the choice number of the selected sentence. If sentence X agrees with sentence Y, one's correctness follows from the other one. If sentence X disagrees with sentence Y, they can not be correct at the same time.
Input: Statement: To my intense surprise, he replied that, on the contrary, he was extremely likely to be acquitted.  Choices: 1. John Cavendish was the man who was likely to be acquitted. 2. I was not surprised at all that he said the man was likely to go free. 3. I was surprised that he said that the man was likely to be acquitted.

1