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Input: The trend to this point gives a distinct edge to the Democrats. While roughly the same number of lawmakers in both parties are leaving their seats to run for higher office  just nine House Democrats are retiring outright or have already resigned  compared with 24 Republicans. (House members running for other offices often count as retirements  because itâs usually impractical or illegal to run for multiple positions at the same time.) Including those members who are leaving to run for another office  there will be 17 open House seats vacated by Democrats and 35 for Republicans. Democratic victories last November in gubernatorial and state legislative races in Virginia and New Jersey could spur more retirements among Republicans worried about the national political environment under Trump. And although Democrats must defend far more Senate seats than Republicans in 2018âincluding several in states that Donald Trump wonâall of the partyâs incumbents are currently running for reelection. The retirements of Corker and Flake  along with a Democratic victory in Decemberâs special election in Alabama  give Democrats an outside chance at retaking the Senate majority. In the House  theyâll need to pick up 24 seats  and the more Republicans retire in districts that  Hillary Clinton  carried last year  the more the GOP majority is at risk. Data sources: Each districtâs presidential-election results are from the Daily Kos. House and Senate election results are from the Associated Press.
2012 Senate election: +3.9 Flake He decided to leave after a single term rather than wage what would have been a brutal fight for reelection  first in a primary against a hard-right Trump backer  Kelli Ward  and then  if he won  against a centrist Democrat  Representative Kyrsten Sinema  in the general election. Flake had lost his base in Arizona: His criticism of Trump in his recent book  Conscience of a Conservative  alienated the presidentâs GOP backers  while his conservative voting record put off Democrats. Orrin Hatch  Utah 2016 presidential election: +17.9 Trump over Hillary Clinton; +23.8 Trump over Evan McMullin
2014 Senate election: +10.24 Franken Under pressure from fellow Democrats  Franken announced in December he would resign âin the coming weeksâ after multiple women came forward to accuse him of inappropriate sexual behavior. Most of the allegations involved Franken groping women while taking a photo. His resignation means there will be a special Senate election in 2018 in a state that Hillary Clinton barely carried in 2016. House Republicans Retiring Outright Steve Helber / AP Bob Goodlatte  Virginia 6th district 2016 presidential election: +24.8 Trump
2016 House election: +0.52 Issa Issa in January became one of the most recognizable House Republicans to announce his retirement. A former chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee  he served as the chief congressional inquisitor of the Obama administration for several years. Issa is annually ranked as one of the wealthiest members of Congress  having co-founded the company behind the Viper car alarm (for which he famously provided the voice). But he was in for the fight of his life to win reelection after nearly losing in 2016 in a district that  Hillary Clinton  carried over Donald Trump.

The 2018 Congressional Retirement Tracker