logo_2Churchill White Paper
Demand Forecasting & The Seasonality Factor – Harve C. Light
Introduction To Demand Seasonality
Frequently, Churchill is asked to comment about the impact of Seasonality on Demand Forecasting. This white paper overviews Seasonality, its impact on demand forecasting and the inclusion of Seasonality in demand forecasting methodologies. Note: This paper intended to be a basic explanation of the topic and not an academic-type paper.
What Is Seasonality?
Within the timeframe of any given period of time such as one year, merchandise (as well as selling locations) experience distinct periods of time, such as a few weeks, when one or more types of merchandise are more (or less) desired by the buying public when compared to an average week. This repeatable increase or decrease in periodic consumer buying interest is defined as the merchandise or location's "Seasonality" and therefore must be accounted for when forecasting demand for the affected merchandise or location. To complicate matters, while the seasonal demand repeats over each year, etc. the actual seasonality periods can vary from year to year. (For example, Holidays)
What Is the Importance of Demand When Generating Forecasts?
Depending on the purpose of the forecasting, the importance of the Seasonality Factor can be very significant or very insignificant. For example, in continuity item regular periods (non-promotional) forecasting, Churchill performance testing has shown Seasonality to be the most significant single source of forecasting error. Poor Seasonal Indexes equals poor demand forecasts. On the other hand, there are many examples of merchandise that are required by consumers throughout the year where other factors such as price and promotions are more significant that seasonality.
One final comment. Seasonality of demand can be a very "local" factor. Churchill sees this situation whenever we build forecasting models for convenience or neighborhood stores. For example, individual stores may serve specific ethnic communities who observe holidays, etc. specific to the community.
How Is The Seasonality Factor Expressed In Demand Forecasting Methodologies?
There are many techniques for quantifying the seasonality component for demand forecasting purposes. One methodology that will demonstrate the principle is to utilize the "Relative Seasonality Index" methodology. Conceptually this methodology is a two-step methodology where:
 - Step One calculates the Average Periodic (weekly) Demand value as = Total Annual Demand / 52 Weekly Periods.
 - Step Two calculates the Relative Seasonality Index values as = Weekly Total Demand / Average Periodic (Weekly) Demand.
The output values of this methodology form a relative seasonality index where (quantitatively) the Average Demand Week will have a value = 1.0 and Weeks with historically greater seasonal demand will have index values greater than 1.0 (for example 1.82) and Weeks with historically less seasonal demand will have index values of less than 1.0 (for example.86).
What Are Some Examples Of The Seasonality Index Being Utilized In Demand Forecasting?
Here are three examples.
Example #1 relates to the forecasting of regular (non-promotional) continuity merchandise demand. Forecasting methodologies such as exponential smoothing, moving averaging, etc. first determine the underlying (nonseasonal) demand for the merchandise, location, etc. and then add the merchandise's Seasonal Index values to include Seasonality for specific periods such as weeks, resulting in seasonalized demand forecasts for each week.
Example #2 is a causal forecasting example such as the forecasting of promotional price lift. These forecasts can require the inclusion of the Seasonality Index values as Causal-based Forecasting Input values. Inclusion of the Seasonality Factor values can be important because Seasonality can cause another causal factor, such as Price Discount on Holiday merchandise, to be more or less significant e.g. more intense before the Holiday periods (resulting in higher lifts) when compared to the exact same Price Discount promoted four months after the Holiday periods which generally result in lower promotional lift.
Example #3 is a limited life product forecasting example. Seasonality can be an important factor during the limited lift season that the merchandise is offered for sale. For example, Swimsuits tend to be more in demand during the early and warmer weeks of the season and less in demand during the later and perhaps colder weeks of the season.
How Does Churchill Generate Specific and Detailed Seasonal Indexes Values?
First, I have to mention that Churchill expends substantial energy effort developing the best Seasonal Indexes possible within the limitations of the customer's historical sales data. Second, Churchill utilizes a combination of human engineered data preparation combined with our proprietary clustering and profiling technology. Our seasonality modeling tool is called Profile Cluster Builder™ (PCB). An executive summary of our PCB tool is included as the last page of this paper.
In general terms, Churchill models Seasonal Indexes utilizing the following methodology. As you read the steps of this methodology, please remember that, in most cases, we are building literally many thousands (or more) of seasonal indexes for the retailer.
 1. Churchill starts by carefully defining the Merchandise Level and Location Level forecasting requirements that the Seasonal Indexes are to be built to support.
 2. Since historical data accuracy generally limits the retailer's historical data usability, Churchill must audit the historical data for the purpose of improving data quality. Over the years, Churchill has developed several data cleansing techniques that help with this data issue.
 3. Next, since holidays and other seasonal events often change from year to year, the next step in this process is to organize the historical data from multiple historical years into one common format that represents Seasonality history properly aligned for the upcoming year to be forecasted. This step not only includes the specific period (week) of the holiday, etc. but also the affected weeks leading up to and following the event period.
 4. With the historical data aligned as best as possible, Churchill now turns to its Profile Cluster Builder tool to perform its "magic". Note: While the following tasks are presented in a sequential format, in reality there is much overlap in these steps.
 1. Gathers the historical data from similar merchandise/locations into common groupings. Churchill utilizes degree of fit type metrics for the grouping metric.
 2. Isolates and separates individual merchandise and locations whose historical data patterns are considered to be too different to be utilized in profile building.
 3. From the qualified historical data, PCB builds demand profiles that will represent the clustered groupings.
 4. And this brings us back to the identified outliers. PCB, using a two-step process, places the outliers with the already built profiles that statistically are most appropriate.
 5. After the PCB clusters and profiles have been built and tested, a series of "higher level" default profiles will need to be built and tested. These higher level default profiles will be utilized for forecasting seasonality in future new merchandise and/or locations that were not part of the original profile modeling process.
 6. We now have a collection of seasonal profiles and related cross reference tables that can be utilized for application-specific demand forecasting. Before these Seasonal Profiles can be shipped to the retailer, two additional things must occur.
 1. The Seasonal Profiles need to be performance tested for the purpose at hand.
 2. Sometimes, the format of the Seasonal Profiles must be transformed to align with the retailer's installed demand forecasting application.
In Closing
Because Churchill recognizes that Seasonality and the related Seasonal Indexes are a very important component in retail demand forecasting performance and conversely that lack of good Seasonal Indexes will be a major source of forecasting performance error, we take Seasonal Profiling very seriously. One final comment. Year to year, seasonality constantly changes. For example, product assortments evolve, selling locations open and close, holiday dates change, leap year occurs every four years and retail calendars require adjustment. Therefore, to achieve and then maintain high quality forecasts, please recognize that Seasonal Indexes require regular annual updating.
Churchill's Profile Cluster Builder (PCB) is advanced clustering and profiling technology that supports a wide variety of retail planning and forecasting applications. Sound clusters and the resulting profiles are essential to the success of most retail planning applications. Churchill's PCB Tool generates financially sophisticated clusters and profiles for any number of retail planning applications, including:
 - Intelligent Seasonal Profiling™
 - Intelligent Store Clustering™
 - Intelligent Size Profiling™
 - Intelligent Assortment Clustering™
Technology Strengths:
 - Multiple iterations of clusters and profiles ensure optimal results
 - Analysts can quickly focus on high margin and exceptional items
 - Hosted Service sets up and is operational within 60 days
 - Immediate planning application financial improvements
Application Functionality:
 - Identifies optimum hierarchical groupings of entities (ie: item/store, class/size/store, etc.)
 - Recognizes common historical & attribute patterns within each grouping and clusters accordingly
 - Standardized Clusters & Profiles are then built using these demand patterns and attributes
 - Cluster & Profile Fit Thresholds (degree of fit) can be adjusted to the individual retailer's application requirements
 - Outliers and anomalies are promoted to incrementally higher levels until an appropriate lower level solution can be created
 - Each entity (item, store, etc.) is then automatically assigned to a corresponding profile.
 - Output is a compatible file of the profiles or clusters that can overlay an existing planning system file
Additional Features:
 - Specifically designed for the high volumes of today's large retailers
 - Provided as a hosted services application designed to support multiple planning applications (seasonality, sizing, pricing, assortment, etc.)
To


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Focus: Human Rights and the ECHR
The United Nations Human Rights Committee, the monitoring treaty body of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, is one of the most important and highly regarded international human rights institutions. This article seeks to explore if geograph ical, political and cultural considerations influence the votes of committee members in decisions on individual communications. This article introduces an original dataset of the votes and backgrounds of committee members (CMs), hand coded by the author. The method used in the article is an empirical-quantitative analysis of the votes of CMs. The article finds that certain geopolitical voting patterns do exist in the votes of CMs. Evidence for cultural voting patterns is more limited. However, the article finds that usually voting patterns of individual CMs do not influence the final decision of the committee and that the decisions of the committee should be generally regarded as unbiased.

source: openbmb/Ultra-FineWeb


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Teachers' aides and other paraprofessionals and support staff serving students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) can now enhance their knowledge and skills through an online training program developed by the Virginia Commonwealth University Autism Center of Excellence (VCU ACE) and Virginia Department of Education (VDOE).
The course, Autism Spectrum Disorders for Paraprofessionals: Providing Effective Instruction and Supports, includes five learning modules:
- Characteristics of ASD;
- Roles and Responsibilities of the Paraprofessional;
- Foundational Instructional Practices;
- Supporting Communication and Social Skills; and
- Providing Positive Behavior Supports.
"Paraprofessionals are on the front lines every day with students with autism spectrum disorder," VCU ACE Director of Training Dawn Hendricks said. "Training is essential to improving educational experiences and outcomes for these students."
In December 2011, the commonwealth's 132 school divisions reported 13,137 students with autism as their primary disability, a 490 percent increase since 2000, when 2,226 children were identified as having a form of ASD. This increase mirrors national statistics and is the subject of research to better understand the causes of autism and factors contributing to the rise in the number of children diagnosed.
"These statistics underscore the importance of VDOE's partnership with VCU to assist school divisions in educating and supporting children with autism spectrum disorder and preparing these students for productive and independent lives," Superintendent of Public Instruction Patricia I. Wright said. "This new training course will equip teaching assistants, bus aides and other support staff with the knowledge and skills they need to help students with autism experience success."
Autism Spectrum Disorders for Paraprofessionals is a self-paced course that provides flexibility for both paraprofessionals and their employing school divisions to meet their training needs. Participants earn a certificate of completion if they have reviewed all content and score a minimum of 80 percent on each of the five quizzes to receive a passing grade for each lesson. Registration for the May session is now open through the VCU ACE website. The course is free to Virginia residents through a grant from VDOE.
House Bill 325, which was approved by the 2012 General Assembly, requires school divisions to ensure that aides assigned to work with teachers who have primary oversight of students with ASD receive training in student behavior management. The legislation also directs the state Board of Education, in consultation with VCU, to develop an online training program divisions may use to comply with the new requirement.
"VDOE will work in partnership with VCU's Autism Center for Excellence to ensure that the course addresses all standards and competencies identified by the Board of Education," Wright said.


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In this article, we explore what the world would look like if the ice caps melted, and the impact on biodiversity, humanity and weather patterns.
In this article, we will explore ten breathtaking European coastal locations that are perfect for diving adventures.
In this article, we explore El Niño and La Niña and what impact they have on climate change and the temperatures of our oceans and seas
You can now add tides and weather to your website. Configure your widget below and copy the embed code to add tide times and weather for Isla Escondida to your site, regardless of what CMS you use.


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Quite an informative blog post from our local surfing site
What we're talking about is something surfers really don't want to know about, but should, because if you're a surfer, you're taking part in a sport where surfer's ear is one of the most common problems and a price you may have to pay for being a surf-aholic.
So, let's talk about the history of surfer's ear, what causes it and what can, and should, be done about it.Being ignorant on such a relevant topic is not smart, it's plain dumb. And that's not something the surfer community should be. Surf Kings and Queens for sure, but not dummies.
If you're a smoker, you know the small print. The same should apply to surfers and their ears. So at the end of this chat, I hope to have you better informed.Having started with a sexual innuendo, I think it only fair to mention that in 1891, when "surfer's ear" was first described, syphilis was suspected as a possible cause. The first described surgery took place in 1877.
The operation took seven hours using chloroform anaesthesia. They also used leeches to facilitate blood flow. But relax. Just as technology for surfboards and wetsuits has flourished, so have modern surgical techniques and anaesthesia. So chill... you're safe from leeches.
What causes surfer's ear? I worked in London for Sir Donald Harrison who found the reason. He found ear canal skin temperature increased after swimming in cold water. This increase was due to dilatation of the blood vessels. Irrigating the ear with 15°C seawater for 15 seconds caused blood vessels to swell and increase the warmth for some 45 minutes. And in those who already had surfer's ear, the same exposure caused 80 minutes of reflex warming due to vessel dilatation.
So the colder the water, the greater the duration of the reflex dilation and heating up. Basically increased vascular temperature can cause new bone formation because there's no insulating layer of subcutaneous tissue between the lining of the ear canal and the underlying bone. This theory has been found to be true.
In terms of history, a relatively small number of people engaged in long-term cold-water activities as an occupation, but with invention in the 1950s of the neoprene suit, everything changed and one could spend prolonged periods of time in what had previously been uncomfortably cold water. Unless the ear canal was protected from cold-water exposure, the price for greater participation in cold-water activities increased, as did formation of surfer's ear.
The sport predominantly affected by these trends was surfing: so you're at riskSurfers are people who continually have their heads under water and participate in their sport for hundreds of hours per year and, what's more, many for decades. In fact the term "surfer's ear" first appeared in medical literature in 1977.
Since then most discussions on surfer's ear describe mainly surfing populations since this is the group with the highest incidence of the condition. Essentially, a surfing generation was born. A generation of water buddies who spend hundreds of hours in cold water with uncovered ears. Some for decades. All surfers are potentially at risk, so if you're sensible, responsible and all those other boring things, you'd have your ears checked out by someone who understands this condition... not an amateur..., firstly to see whether you have them, and what, if anything, needs be done. Certainly protection is top of the list.
How many surfers get surfer's ear
This varies depending on whether you're susceptible, the water temperature and how often and for how long you surf, always repeating the bottom line as to whether you wear protection. This makes a huge difference. What I mean is, "wear an ear condom."
It needn't be a Rough Rider or equivalent, just a hood, Doc's pro plugs or Prestik, recalling the mantra of "KEEP IT COVERED." In this case, both of them.
A Californian study with water temperature 19-20°c found 86% of surfers to have a degree of canal closure from surfer's ear. Interestingly, more involvement in the right ear than left. Most didn't wear protection because, either they didn't think of it, or it was uncomfortable and unglamorous.Japanese professional surfers have an 80% incidence with canal closure of between 50 – 80%. Again the colder the water, the greater the incidence.
In New Zealand the incidence was some 73% with 40% having 50% or more closure. Those surfing in winter were worst off regards canal closure.Another Californian survey found a 75% incidence in those surfing over 20 years.
An Australian report from Victoria showed males to have 50% and females 43% chance of developing more than 66% closure when surfing more than 20 years.We currently have no South African figures but I'm asking Spike to organise a Cape Town survey.
There'll hopefully be a Wavescape banner and table and I'll be on the beach checking your ears and giving you the result.
Handling surfer's ear:Let's get this straight. By no means every surfer's ear needs surgery. We need understand that. But you, the surfer, need to know firstly whether you have the condition and if so, to what extent. Mild to moderate surfer's ear needs no more than being aware of the condition, taking precautions and regular check ups. But, don't let them get to what I call "North face of the Eiger" – a wall of bone - before you accept surgery is necessary.
Remember your hearing can be absolutely perfect with only a tiny aperture between the osteoma. It's amazing how small a sound wave needs to get through to keep your hearing normal. This is often the case. When you tell a surfer they need something done, they turn pale with fear and run for the door... back to the waves.
The mantra being "it'll never happen to me."It does, and recall the more extensive the surfer's ear, the more difficult the surgery, and the more "small print" comes into play. When you have what I call "North face of the Eiger", the "landmarks" are distorted and one tells the surfer, that in many ways delaying the operation to this stage is equivalent almost to constructing du Toit's Kloof tunnel with no GPS. So don't get into this situation.
Understand the more severe the osteoma, the more potential complications. If you require surgery, have it done before you get to this extreme state.Every ENT surgeon has a case or two of these extensive osteoma where complications occurred because of surgical difficulty.
The current surgical techniques make use of sophisticated binocular microscopes, micro instruments and safe anaesthesia. The combination makes for delicate surgery. The most frequently used technique is high-speed drill, drilling the osteoma away often utilising tiny 1 – 2mm osteotome chisels as adjuncts. Incision is either straight through the canal, or behind the ear. It depends on the surgeon's preference. It's day case surgery and pain not usually a significant factor. The osteoma are removed and an as normal as possible canal recreated by removing the obstruction. Absolutely vital to swift recovery is preservation of the very thin and sensitive skin lining to the canal. If you can retain this, the surfer is back in the water within 4 – 6 weeks. Sometimes sooner.
However, if you present with huge osteoma, then keeping that skin cover can be exceeding difficult and sometimes impossible. In that case, and we've all heard about those that had to stay out of the water for a couple of month's after surgery, because they delayed the procedure and reaped the consequences.The main thing is don't allow them to get to a massive size by running away and then blame the surgeon when your recovery is prolonged.Also, in terms of regular surfing, recall outer ear infections are not uncommon and, just as there's no such thing as clean air, the same applies to much of the ocean in which you surf. The bacteria involved here are often bowel related with all that that implies.
Surgical follow up
Getting a surfer to accept surgery is required is, in itself, especially difficult because of the denial factor. The "running away" syndrome is substantial and largely based on misplaced fear and lack of awareness. The same applies to coming for regular follow up. Remember surgery will have reduced the osteoma, but the possibility of recurrence is real as the cause of the osteoma formation is dilation of blood vessels, something that cannot be surgically removed. It's a physiologic reaction to cold water.
One report on a 10 year follow up showed there was more than 60% closure in 25%, 30- 60% closure in 31% and less than 30% closure in the remaining 42%. So you need follow up.Not surprisingly, those who surf all year round, recurred quicker as did those who were older at the time of their initial surgery. And here's a vital fact. Ear protection reduced the chance of regrowth 5 fold.So what's the bottom line?
Firstly you're in a sport, which constantly exposes you to cold water. A fair number of you will be in a group where this causes the blood vessels to dilate, stimulating new bone formation hence "surfer's ear." Just as you shouldn't drink and drive, so you shouldn't surf without having your ears checked to get the bottom line. Recall, by no means every surfer's ear needs surgery, but every surfer

source: HuggingFaceFW/fineweb-edu


[Easy Ways] How to Fix a Bricked Phone
Android brick has multiple forms and it can occur to any device at any time. If your phone is behaving abnormally or is simply refusing to turn on, it is likely bricked and needs to be fixed using an appropriate fix method.
The following guide shows how you can find out if your phone is bricked, and if it is, what brick form it is and how to unbrick Android phone of yours. It covers everything you need to know about various bricks of Android based phones and tablets.
Part 1. How is Your Phone Bricked: Soft Brick, Hard Brick or Broken?
Before you find any methods on how to fix a bricked phone, it is important to know what bricked form your phone is in. Whether it is a soft brick, a hard brick, or it is completely broken. Match the symptoms of your device against the ones given below and you should be able to find it out.
1. What is Soft Brick?
A soft brick is the lowest form of an Android brick and these phones can actually easily be recovered. Your phone will show the following symptoms when it is soft bricked.
2. What is Hard Brick?
A hard brick is a more severe form of an Android brick. In this case, your phone will likely become unusable. Your phone will likely not turn on despite you pressing the Power button numerous times. Also, any other methods to revive the phone will also fail.
 - The phone won't turn on in any way or any formp
3. What is a Broken Android Device?
A broken Android device is a device that has one or many of its hardware components literally broken. This means a cable or any other part on your device has been damaged to the extent that it no longer does what it needs to do. As a result, your phone will not function.
Part 2. How to Fix the Soft Bricked Android Phone?
If yours is a soft bricked phone, then you have some really easy ways to fix it.
1. One click to Unbrick Android with Android System Recovery Tool
Tenorshare ReiBoot for Android is a one click unbrick tool for Android that helps you fix your soft bricked Android phones and tablets. It resolves the issues related with the core system that in turn fixes all other issues on your phone. It can be useful when your device shows the following symptoms.
When to Using ReiBoot to Fix Bricked Android?
 - A software error/crash occurred
 - Software problem occurred in the device mainly during OS upgrade or flashing
 - You fail to root the device properly
 - Installing malicious software on your Android phone or get virus attacked
How to Use ReiBoot to Fix Bricked Android?
If you would like to use it, the following shows how to unbrick a phone using the ReiBoot for Android software.
 - Download and launch the software. Click on Repair Android System.
 repair android system
 Image 1. Connect Android Device
 - Click on Repair Now.
 repair now
 Image 2. Repair Now
 - Enter your phone details and hit Next and wait for it to download the firmware.
 provide device details
 Image 3. Download Firmware Package
 - Click on Repair Now and wait for it to repair your phone.
 start repair
 Image 4. Start Repair
Your phone should now be repaired.
2. Wipe Your Data and Cache If Your Phone Keeps Rebooting:
When you are flashing a custom ROM, your Android phone will keep rebooting. This is because you forget to wipe all the data or cache of the previous ROM. The following is how to unbrick Android with this method.
 - Get your phone enters into the recovery mode, This method take ClockworkMod Recovery for example.
 - Use your volume keys to navigate the menus, and your power button to select menu items. Scroll down to Advanced, and choose "Wipe Dalvik Cache".
 - When that's finished, go back to the main screen and choose "Wipe Cache Partition".
 - Go to "Wipe Data/Factory Reset" to delete all your settings and apps, but you should still be using the correct ROM.
 wipe cache
 Pic 1. wipe cache
3. Flash a New ROM If Your Phone Boots Straight Into Recovery
If you boot up your phone straightly into ClockworkMod, then there's likely an issue with the ROM you flashed. In this case, you'll need to reflash new ROM.
 - Download the appropriate ROM (typically contained in a ZIP file) to an SD card.
 - Insert the SD card into your device.
 - Select Install updates from SD card.
 - Select the ZIP file containing the ROM.
 - Select Reboot system now.
 flash new rom
 Pic 2. flash new rom
Part 3. How to Fix the Hard Bricked Android Phone?
If your phone is hard bricked, the following methods on how to fix a hard bricked phone should help you.
1. Revive with a USB Jig
A few phones can be revived with a USB Jig. A USB jig is a small device that you can connect to your phone USB port and puts the phone into Download Mode to reinstall the stock firmware. You can find these for cheap on Amazon or eBay, but only for a very small number of devices.
usb jig
Pic 3. usb ji
2. Take It to A Repair Store
If no matter how hard you try, it won't work at all. Then you need take it back to your carrier's store or the nearest repair store and let them fix it for you.
That is how you fix a hard bricked phone.
Part 4. How to Fix the Broken Android Device?
If your phone is in the most severe condition, which is broken, then you can try the following ways to fix it. These methods do not use any Android unbrick tool.
1. Repair or Replace the Electrical Component
If your Android is broken especially after water damaged, dropped down, contact your manufacturer for the nearest service centre to find out the part of your phone that is damaged and have it replaced with a new one.
2. Buy a New Device
If the phone is damaged beyond repair, your last choice should be to get a new device.
Our guide above shows how to unbrick Android without recovery and with recovery so you can fix your phones regardless of how they are bricked: soft bricked, hard bricked or broken. We hope it really helps you out. If your Android phone stuck on recovery mode, headphone mode, bootloop, etc. ReiBoot for Android is really a professional Android fix software for you.
 Updated on 2020-02-19 / Update for Fix Android
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Standardizing teacher evaluations in a state can provide consistency and tie evaluations to performance goals, according to a report. Evaluations that define quality and strive to improve student and teacher performance can be strong reform tools. Included: A new approach to teacher evaluations.
Interest among state officials and lawmakers in taking a more direct role in education reform by standardizing teacher evaluations got a jump start a few years ago from the report Improving Teacher Evaluation to Improve Teaching Quality, written by members of theNational Governors Association (NGA) Center for Best Practices.
Teacher evaluations can be effective mechanisms for increasing student achievement and improving instructional practices, if the evaluations are connected with academic standards for students and professional standards for educators, according to the report. Developing state evaluations ensures consistency throughout a state and shows if teachers are meeting state academic goals.
Bridget Curran, one of the report's authors, and a senior policy analyst with the NGA Center for Best Practices, recently talked with Education World about the study and how state officials could improve teacher evaluations.
Bridget Curran: The NGA Center for Best Practices decided to write and publish an issue brief about teacher evaluation because we detected growing interest among governors in learning more about how to improve teacher evaluation and make it a tool for school improvement. A number of governors are also interested in different ways of paying teachers, and for many of the new models of teacher pay, good models of evaluation are critical.
EW: What are some of the key ingredients for a comprehensive teacher evaluation program?
Curran: To write this brief, we looked at the existing literature and tried to synthesize the best information about good teacher evaluations. From that understanding of the literature, the critical components are:
EW: What steps need to be taken to change teacher evaluation processes from measuring teacher behavior to measuring teacher outcomes?
Curran: Governors and other state policymakers should:
EW: What are the advantages of establishing these standards at the state level rather than the local level?
Curran: Establishing evaluation standards and models at the state level ensures some level of consistency across the state. States do not need to mandate all aspects of evaluation. They can set standards and offer models and let local districts tailor the process. State involvement ensures consistency in the standards to which teachers are held across the state, but also ensures that standards for teachers are connected to the state's standards for students and to statewide improvement goals.
By linking evaluation with academic standards for students and professional standards for educators, policymakers can transform evaluation into a more effective tool for improving instructional practice and improving student achievement. States should view evaluation as a tool to help administrators identify teachers who need additional or specialized assistance and to help all teachers improve their instructional practices. By coordinating evaluation at the state level, state leaders can also ensure that evaluation is part of their comprehensive efforts to improve teaching.
EW: How would you respond to teachers who might say that other professions are not subject to periodic state review?
Curran: I do not think we are suggesting that the state review teacher performance. We are suggesting that the state define the standards, develop tools and models for the evaluation process, and provide training to evaluators. Ultimately, the actual evaluation takes place at the building level. Most professionals are subject to periodic performance evaluations by supervisors or senior members of the staff. Usually these evaluations are formative but can also be used for employment decisions. School leaders at the local and state level do have a responsibility for ensuring a certain level of quality to students and their parents, but more importantly for using providing quality instruction and promoting continuous improvement.
EW: What, if any, action has NGA taken to follow up on this study since it first was released?
Curran: Mostly, the NGA Center has worked with individual states based on their interest and at their request. We are integrating the recommendations and the lessons we learned from producing the brief into our ongoing work on teachers and school leaders. Teaching and leading in high schools in particular will be a major focus in the next couple of years. I invite readers to explore the NGA site to learn more about the NGA Center's work on these and other education issues.
This e-interview with Bridget Curran is part of the Education World Wire Side Chat series. Click here to see other articles in the series.


2021 Federal Poverty Level (FPL) Calculator
The 2021 federal poverty level (FPL) for a single person residing in the 48 contiguous states or Washington, D.C. is $12,880. In Alaska, the federal poverty level for a single person is $16,090 and in Hawaii it is $14,820. To calculate larger household sizes or get percentages such as 133% of the FPL, or 135%, 138%, 150%, 175%, and so forth please use the free calculator tool below.
Don't forget to visit our resources page to learn about programs that can benefit you.
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Crush & Sweep (Form)
Enable form by tapping the spheres of both controllers together Motion controllers touch spheres.
Move the controllers Primary motion controller Secondary motion controller to flatten your shape until it becomes a white outline.
Press Secondary motion controller T button to set shape.the secondary T button
Hold Primary motion controller T button and move the primary controller Primary motion controller to sweep the shape out.the primary T button
This is great for making buildings - use stay upright to restrict rotation.Next: Spin
The Dreams User Guide is a work-in-progress. Keep an eye out for updates as we add more learning resources and articles over time.


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Math Practice Online > free > lessons > Florida > 7th grade > Prime Numbers
If your child needs math practice, click here.
Indicate whether or not a number is a prime number.
This topic aligns to the following state standards
Grade 5: Num 1. Finds factors of numbers to 100 to determine if they are prime or composite.
Grade 6: Num 1. Knows if numbers (less than or equal to 100) are prime or composite.
Grade 7: Num 1. Knows if numbers are prime or composite.
Copyright Accurate Learning Systems Corporation 2008.
MathScore is a registered trademark.


_TAG_ 92: W.E.B. Du Bois Data Portraits
The Challenge: Following the style of W.E.B. Du Bois' Data Portraits, update or create a graphic demonstrating current data. For example, below on the left is Du Bois's portrait comparing Black and white occupations in 1890 and on the right is my recreation using the closest set of matching data I could find in 2018.
Materials Needed: Maybe graph paper, maybe simply regular paper and writing tools.
Math concepts you could explore with this challenge: Statistics
Continue reading "_TAG_ 92: W.E.B. Du Bois Data Portraits"
_TAG_ Day 75: Black Lives Matter
I live in Minneapolis. Today, on May 31st, 2020, things are challenging. People keep asking how they can help. So here are some ways you can help.
 1. First, please say out loud with me right now, "Black Lives Matter." Don't just tweet it, say it out loud where ever you are. Believe it.
 2. Please do not ask any person of color to do the work for you. That includes putting the onus on them to figure out how you can help.
3. If you are white, talk with your people: your family, your co-workers, your neighbors. It may get uncomfortable, but it is not as uncomfortable as being Black in America. And again, in those spaces, do not put the weight of the work on the people of color. If you hear something along the lines of, "but the protests are so destructive", point them to the many examples of peaceful protests. Then remind them that peaceful protests have been tried. Colin Kaepernick's kneel was peaceful. Then, point them to this thread and article which documents many, many, many instances of the police escalating and inciting violence.
4. You can donate to help out at these organizations:
5. And here is an EXCELLENT list of resources to help support the Minneapolis Protests.
6. You can call Mike Freeman, the DA responsible for bringing charges to the police officers. _PHONE_
This is a partial and small list. But if you do any _TAG_ do this one. I'd love for you to add any additional suggestions in the comments.
Black Lives Matter.
And don't think that this means we can't talk the 8 mathematical practices! We sure can.
1.) Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them. How will American society, which is still predominatly white, address the problems of systemic racism? What structural changes can be advocated for so Black Americans live freely and safely in our communities?
2.) Reason abstractly and quantitatively. Why are Black Americans proportionally overrepresented in interactions with police?
3.) Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others. In the book, Weapons of Math Destruction, Cathy O'Neil examines the way in which some police departments use algorithms to determine where to send their officers. Study that phenomena and form an opinion as to the merits of those systems.
4.) Model with mathematics. How can you help those who may not yet see the disproportionate experiences Black Americans have with the police see that? What data is useful to collect? What is not? How is your data skewed or representative?
5.) Use appropriate tools strategically. What methods are available to you to help deconstruct systemic racism?
6.) Attend to precision. Avoid speaking in generalities. How is systemic racism present in your life? What can you do about it?
7.) Look for and make use of structure. In what ways is our society constructed in unfair ways? In what ways is it fair? What structures exist that you may or may not have yet noticed?
8.) Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning. There have been way too many names. The problem is not something we can ignore. How will you help?


text: This paper describes the implementation of controlling physical parameters through IoT applications with GSM module. The ever increasing requirements for information being accessible at any time, from any place, regardless the type of remote device or planned operation, together with the need of complete control of a specific scenario or device has paved the way towards the next technological revolution: Internet of Things (IoT). In this project, the parameters are sensed by the respective sensors and are monitored by the individual microcontrollers. Finally, the values are displayed with the help of individual LCD displays. The microcontroller is connected to the PC through zigbee bus and the output will be displayed in that PC with the help of RS232 serial communication. This data is stored in the Pc and uploaded to the cloud. The system is reliable and stable. It is the most effective and most economical means of equipment safety monitoring.


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Chapter 1: the chicken or the egg
According to reliable accounts, it was the egg that came first. In fact, it's hard to make an omelet out of a chicken. It wasn't until 1743 that tomatoes were added sparking controversy in the royal court.
However, Queen Isabella of Portugal, during a royalty semi-formal, turned the Spanish queen on to the new style of omelet by betting her she could hold a keg stand longer than anyone at the party. When the dust settled, the two were seen in the corner, passed out, with bits of egg all over their pantaloons.
After a brief scandal in which each throne flirted with the idea of invasion over the name of said omelet, the newly christened Spanish omelet was spread to the people and there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
In the early days, it was the royal court and aristocracy that controlled the omelet, but soon dissent spread through the people and several underground movements were established.
Chapter 2: the underground egg
Although historical records vary on the exact date, they do agree on the place: Barcelona. This city became the epicenter of the Underground Omelet Movement and it was here that garlic was first introduced to the recipe. Many claim to have been the mastermind behind what became known the 'The Garlic Faction,' but reliable accounts have been lost with time. What is known, however, is that garlic began being consumed in such quantities that a royal tariff was imposed on its sale.
The tariff raised such tumult that Joanna of Castile was called in to "handle the populace." Possession of garlic without a permit became punishable by death, and chants of "pica el ajo muy fino!" were heard at all hours of the day and night. Unfortunately, Joanna's iron-fist style of martial law only exacerbated the already inflamed anger of The Garlic Faction and riots spread throughout Barcelona. As an interesting aside, it was during these riots that much of Barcelona was destroyed, requiring rebuilding leading to the ornate architecture seen today.
Eventually, a compromise was reached when the queen realized just how delicious garlic made the omelet, and lead-based wig powder was distributed to the masses in an act of contrition.
Chapter 3: the spread of the egg
Even though Marco Polo is credited with carrying the Spanish omelet to the Asia-pacific, it was actually his retarded half cousin Mervin who "dropped his eggs in Marco's sack," according to the memoirs of Marco's mother. Marco, of course, took credit and when Mervin came forward, all historical record of him ceases. We can only assume he was somehow silenced, as it is currently common knowledge that Polo had ties to the Venetian crime families.
Marco's dissemination of the omelet recipe shocked the nation of Spain. Public opinion was that allowing the secrets of the egg to move past national borders was tantamount to treason. However, due to his ties to the Venetians, Polo was placed under protective custody until the Summit of the Omelet in 1803. At this watershed meeting, a trade agreement between Spain, Portugal, Italy, and the eastern kingdoms of south Asia was reached. Remarkably, after the garlic fiasco of the preceding decades, arguments arose over the transport and use of basil and cilantro. Cilantro especially became highly sought after when King Philip IV reportedly stated he used it as "anal floss." What was meant by this statement is still hotly debated by modern-day scholars, though it is this writer's opinion it couldn't have been anything good.
Chapter 4: enter the French
Quite oblivious to the goings on in the omelet world, royalty in France and England had recently concluded their 100 year war and returned to their respective lands to find the people protesting the woeful lag in their respective breakfast technologies. France of course responded with the crepe, while England began the Secret Government Eggo Project. Unfortunately for the British, it was many years and thousands of pounds before this project was even started, and they failed to play any role in this pivotal time of the Spanish omelet.
The French crepe, however, gained in popularity but due to a clever marketing campaign by Spain's dignitaries painting all French people as "smelly, hairy, frog suckers" the crepe never made it outside national borders with any enthusiasm until the early 1920s.
With the unsurprising defeat of the French, the Spanish omelet quickly became the breakfast of choice in the European regions and the influence of the omelet eventually spread worldwide.
Chapter 5: modern omelets
Today, the Spanish omelet is most often eaten during the awkward morning after a one-night stand.
From Around the Web


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|Oracle® OLAP DML Reference
10g Release 1 (10.1)
Part Number B10339-02
REMBYTES(text-expression start [length])
The expression from which REMBYTES removes bytes. When the characters to be removed from text-expression contain embedded line breaks, these breaks are also removed. Other line breaks are preserved. Removed line breaks are not counted toward the total number of characters removed.
An integer that represents the character position at which to begin removing characters. The position of the first character in text-expression is
1. When the value of start is greater than the length of text-expression, REMBYTES simply returns text-expression.
An integer that represents the number of characters to be removed. When length is not specified, only the character at start is removed.
When you are using a single-byte character set, you can use the REMCHARS function instead of the REMBYTES function.
This function does not accept NTEXT arguments, because it is oriented toward byte-manipulation instead of character manipulation. It always returns values of type TEXT. When you must use this function on NTEXT values, use the CONVERT or TO_CHAR function to convert the NTEXT value to TEXT.
Example 20-15 Using REMBYTES to Remove a Substring
This example shows how to remove the substring
there from the text value
SHOW REMBYTES('hellotherejoe', 6, 5)
produces the following output.


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BOSTON — An international group of scientific experts has updated the 15-year-old Mediterranean Diet Pyramid to emphasize the central role of foods from plant sources as the core of healthy eating.
Among the changes: the addition of "mostly whole" to the longstanding recommendation of grains; the addition of herbs and spices to reflect new research on their health benefits as well as their dominant role in Mediterranean flavor profiles; and the recommendation for eating fish at least twice per week, along with small portions of cheese, yogurt, eggs and poultry (if desired). As always, sweets and meats should be eaten sparingly.
"While the pyramid's core philosophy hasn't changed, we've streamlined the graphics to present a contemporary approach to delicious healthy eating based on the overwhelming research about the benefits of the Mediterranean Diet," said K. Dun Gifford, founder and president of Oldways here, which promotes the diet.
Read More of Today's Headlines


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Apple's iPhone Naming Scheme Could Lead to Confusion
With the introduction of the iPhone 4, Apple changed the naming scheme for its popular smartphone yet again, possibly leaving some eager consumers confused about what kind of device they'll actually be getting.
To be clear, iPhone 4 refers to the fourth-generation iPhone to be released since the first model in 2007. It does not refer to the fast "4G" data network.
Apple's first smartphone was known simply as the iPhone. It was followed in 2008 by the iPhone 3G, with "3G" referring to the phone's ability to work on 3G networks (the previous iPhone could only get online on slower, EDGE networks).
In 2009, Apple announced the iPhone 3GS, which was virtually identical to the iPhone 3G, with the main distinction being a faster processor (the "S" stood for speed). [Read "11 iPhone 4 Features You Need to Know About."]
Because of Apple's previous naming scheme, consumers unfamiliar with the iPhone might assume the 4 in the new iPhone's name refers to the faster 4G network currently available from a few carriers such as Sprint.
That's not the case: Like the 3G and 3GS models, the iPhone 4 can only get online using Wi-Fi and 3G networks.


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etec probes. The reason for this is due to the variations in probe diameters. Probes with large sizes are used for flat surfaces while small size probes can be used for testing on curved surfaces such as thin pipes whether convex or concave in shape.
- Application. Material integrity inspections, weld inspections, wall thickness and corrosion mapping on components. All these are applications in which Zetec probes are utilized across different industries.
- Temperature. In general, Zetec probes are used on materials with maximum temperatures of approximately 50 degrees Celsius. Working on hotter surfaces will require use of additional accessories on the probes.
For the Phoenix ISL transducers
- Type of Material. The different types of Phoenix probes are used for scanning of composite and non composite kinds of metals including stainless steel.
- Thickness Range. They can be used for both thin and thick material measurements due to the wide frequency ranges of between 1 to 20MHz.
- Geometry. The varying crystal diameters of phoenix probes (3mm-20mm) enable scanning of different curvatures on test surfaces. Large crystal diameters are used for scanning flat surfaces while small diameter crystals are used for curved surfaces in either convex or concave shapes.
- Application. The many different types of transducers means that they are used for thickness measurement and defect measurement in various applications such as oil and gas, power generation, nuclear power generation, oil refinery among others.
- Temperature. high temperature transducers can be used in temperature ranges of between 80 to 200 degrees Celsius
Whereas both ultrasonic probe models have good specifications for accurate testing of various components, Phoenix ISL probes have proven to have more superior qualities than Zetec probes. The most notable advantage that Phoenix has over Zetec is their high temperature transducer range. They allow for rapid testing in extremely hot surfaces, up to 200°C without destroying the test surface or the probe.
IV. Comparison with Other Brands of Ultrasonic Probes: Zetec vs Phoenix ISL vs NDT-KITS
The third probe manufacturer for your comparison is NDT-KITS company. They have specialized in production of nondestructive testing instruments and probes that are affordable, offer high accuracy and are made from quality material. NDT-KITS manufactures both standard and customized probes, having produced more than 400+ probes so far. Our probes range includes TOFD transducers, dual element, angle beam, phased array, normal beam, and immersion ultrasonic transducers.
A comparison of some aspects of NDT-KITS probes with Phoenix and Zetec probes is as stated below:
1. Type of materials
NDT-KITS probes have higher penetration power making it possible to test reinforced composite materials, coarse grained metals and glass fiber.
2. Thickness range
The probes can measure both thin and thick components. High frequency transducers are good for thin materials while low frequency transducers are used for thick walled components.
The different probe diameters make the probes good for use in different types of curved surfaces. Coupling between probes and test surfaces is dependent on the probe size and surface curvature.
Probes are used in different applications across industries for wall thickness measurements, material flaw detection on flat and curved surfaces, flaw sizing and corrosion surveys on materials.
Most probes work at a maximum of 55°C. Working on surfaces with higher temperatures will require use of add-ons and accessories.
V. Your Perfect Pick: NDT-KITS
NDT-KITS has several types of transducers that are made for specific applications. With over 400 types of transducers to choose from, you will never go wrong in choosing an NDT-KITS probe that is a perfect pick for you.
Some advantages that NDT-KITS probes have over other models are;
More penetrating power due to the piezoelectric technology used in their manufacture. This enables testing in both metals and non-metal components of different thicknesses.
The other advantage is the ability to customize probes according to the client's specifications. Probes can be customized with up to 1024 elements.
In conclusion, the choice of probe for ultrasonic testing is important as the probe is what determines the accuracy of the UT process. Different kinds of probes have specifications for different kinds of testing, this means, you have to be aware of what exactly you do in your business and the kind of data you require from ultrasonic testing.
Comparing several different models from various manufacturers is the right way to go about choosing a perfect UT probe for your applications. We hope that by following the information in this article, the process of choosing an ultrasonic probe for your business will not be too complicated for you.


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In July, Functional Ecology published the Special Feature: A Mechanistic Understanding of Global Change Ecology. We have invited the authors of the papers to write a blogpost on their paper. In this post, Rana El-Sabaawi (Trophic structure in a rapidly urbanizing planet) writes about feeding ecology in the urban jungle.
The human population is rapidly urbanizing. Urban development dramatically changes the landscape by fragmenting green spaces and replacing them with concrete and asphalt. Rain runs off these impervious surfaces into local waterways bringing lots of pollutants with it. In some cases, the waterways are already polluted because of inadequate sewage treatment. Cities are also warmer than undeveloped areas. And even a brief stay in the city gives the impression that city animals are different than wild animals. In my own city, I see more crows, raccoons, and pigeons than I see in the surrounding natural areas.
Clearly urbanization affects ecology, by changing the environment and the animals. The question is how and why?
Urban ecology – why trophic ecology?
In my paper, I chose to focus on the urban food web, and on trophic interactions, defined as who eats whom or what. I wanted to summarize what has been done, what we have learned, and more importantly what is still left to learn.
So why trophic ecology? Because it is one of life's great engines. All organisms need energy, and finding this energy drives their characteristics, behavior and survival. I have also always been curious about what urban animals eat, especially if they rely on food provided by humans intentionally (e.g. bird feeders) or accidentally (e.g. raccoons raiding the garbage and compost, deer eating all the flowers in the garden).
I once saw a crow eating French fries on the sidewalk in front of a restaurant in my neighborhood. I don't know whether it had stolen the chips or found them in the garbage, but it had a pile of them on the concrete, and a pile of them in its beak, and was aggressively guarding them against other crows and seagulls. It was fascinating to watch, and difficult to forget. Was the dominances of crows in the city related to their ability to find, defend, and digest this strange yet delicious energy-dense food?
Urban ecology – general and specific
Urbanization has dramatic changes on trophic ecology. Most recent studies suggest that urbanization weakens herbivory and predation, while others hint that increases competition. The reasons vary and seem to depend on the particularities of the city. Urbanization changes the balance between nutrients that come from primary production (autochthonous) and nutrients that are subsidized by humans (allochthonous). In many cities specialized animals are being replaced by generalist omnivores that utilize a variety of resources, including human-subsidizes foods.
But despite the broad trends it is difficult to make generalizations. Why? Cities worldwide have much in common: they are fragmented, polluted, and they have high abundances of opportunistic animals and nonnative plants. But cities also differ in important ways. Desert cities can be greener than the surrounding areas because humans like to keep their lawns, parks, and golf courses green and watered. The opposite is true for a city in a naturally forested area, where urban development fragments and reduces natural areas, making the city less green. The responses to urbanization also vary among different plant and animal species.
Understanding interplay between general urban effects and local (context-specific) effects is an important challenge that can be addressed with experiments and observations that are replicated in multiple cities. A glaring gap was how little experimental work has been done in aquatic urban environments, marine or freshwater.
Urban ecology – fieldwork in the city
Perhaps most fascinating was how little we know about the ecology of urban animals, the ones that do well in cities. It is not clear how they use the city (to find food, shelter, or both). We know little about what cities do to their nutrition – is eating human-subsidized foods good or bad? In some instances feeding on garbage is associated with illness and antisocial behavior, in others it is associated with large abundances. Understanding how relying on human subsidies changes the interactions between urban and non-urban animals is key for understanding how urbanization changes ecology.
Perhaps these gaps in this rapidly growing literature are not so surprising. Sampling in sewage contaminated waters is not fun, nor is it a good way of attracting students to your lab (I speak from experience). Animals that root through the compost, steal chips, eat your garden are hard to love, and that makes them hard to study. But one thing is clear – the urban environment provides interesting and novel venues for studying trophic interactions.


You are here: Home General Disclosing Your... If I Disclose My Medical...
Disclosing Your Health Condition To Your Employer
If I Disclose My Medical Condition, What Should I Disclose?
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There is a difference between disclosing and sharing everything.
 - How much to disclose depends primarily on your reason for disclosing. For example, if you have decided to disclose so that you do not have the burden of keeping a secret, it may not be sufficient for you to indicate that you are a person with a disability without indicating your diagnosis. You would meet the legal requirement, but you would still be keeping your diagnosis a secret.
 - Even if you are disclosing in order to request an accommodation or a leave of absence and you do not want your employer to be aware of too much information, you may consider simply indicating that you are a person with a disability, and describe the need you have. Understand that if your employer requires evidence of your condition (which it has a right to do), the evidence such as a letter from your doctor will likely include mention of your health condition.
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EC matriculants share their thoughts on the final mother tongue exam paper
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Matric trial examination in the EC has IsiXhosa and Sesotho for the first time in history.
The long-awaited mother tongue education pilot project has been completed in the Eastern Cape this term, with matric students having finished writing the papers with the option to read and answer their Mathematics, Life sciences, and History papers in their home language.
Read more: Eastern Cape matrics to test writing exams in mother tongue
Parent24 interviewed the Principal of Ramafole Senior Secondary School in Mount Fletcher, Mr Pitso Potso, and his students, about their experiences of the life sciences paper.
50% of his students have Sesotho as their home language and 50% have isiXhosa as their home language.
Mr Pitso hinted that there was no early communication from the department of education to the schools about the language choices and how this will work for the learners, which resulted to students choosing to write in English.
This could be due to the fear that the use of a home language could impact their performance negatively, because it is something they have never done before, said Mr Pitso.
This is understandable, because writing examinations in isiXhosa or Sesotho in the last year of schooling when throughout they have been writing in English, can seem risky for the learners.
He also said that part of the reasons could be the lack of early communication with regards to the language choices available to students during these trial exams.
Also see: EC Department of Education on mother tongue pilot project for 2020 matric exams
What students thought
Students from Dinizulu Senior secondary school were eager to let us know about their experiences of the first life sciences question paper.
Students told Parent24 that their teachers told them beforehand that the question papers will be in English and isiXhosa.
However, the teachers advised the students to read the question paper in isiXhosa and answer in English.
The reason for that advice was based on teachers predicting that some students might end up code switching - using both languages - in their answers.
This is not allowed, and might lead to the student not being marked or being failed.
Matriculant Asiphe told us that she read and wrote the paper in English, because she thought there was no use reading in isiXhosa if she was to write in English.
She also thought that choosing isiXhosa for reading will confuse her as the life sciences terminology is hard to understand and she has to translate the knowledge consumed in Xhosa to English anyway.
Nandipha told us she read the paper in isiXhosa and that it was difficult to understand some of the terminology, even though such terminology was followed by an explanation.
She says that one needed a deeper understanding in isiXhosa to understand some of the words that were written in that question paper.
She explained that "some words were not translated in some parts of the question paper, for example, words like: sperm, testes, scrotum were not translated, even though a vague explanation was given to explain what a scrotum is because that is where most of the case study focused."
The right direction?
One excited matriculant took to Twitter to share the first-ever grade 12 mathematics question paper translated into IsiXhosa:
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Information for Transformation is a social media advocacy and education initiative geared towards promoting and strengthening civil liberties and the rule of law and rights leadership in Nigeria. The project will engage young civil liberties activist from marginalized populations (LGBT and disabled people) on the use of the media, establish an online presence for the promotion of civil liberties, and constitute a Nigerian Youth Civil Liberties Network for broader engagement on civil liberties for marginalized population.
Civil liberties for marginalized population in Nigeria continue to be on the brink of the society and on national matters. Youth engagement on issues of social, political and economic situations in Nigeria is also on the low.
Notable amongst these marginalized populations are sexual minorities and disabled people. For sexual minorities it is evident in the proposition to criminalize and penalize the identities and behavior of LGBT people. Section 214, 215 and 217 of the Nigeria Penal Code criminalizes same sex relationships. This provision continues to impact negatively on the lives of sexual minorities in relation to social, political and economic justice. The Nigerian Senate has passed a bill to criminalize and penalize sexual minorities with up to 14years in jail.
For people living with disabilities, the stigma and discrimination attached to them has affected the contribution of this population to the social, political and economic challenges of the country. This has resulted in the non-participation of these two groups in issues of good governance in relation to democracy.
The goal of the project to use social media as a platform for advocating for the rights of marginalized populations in Nigeria and creating youth leadership in the social, political and economic challenges Nigeria currently faces.
- To enhance and increase the capacity and knowledge of 20 young activists from marginalized populations as to optimal use of social media in the promotion of civil liberties,
- To establish an online presence as to the promotion of civil liberties and youth engagement in social, political and economic issues in Nigeria,
- To mobilize leaders from within marginalized communities to form a critical mass of conscientized individuals for active, constructive and the cognitive citizen participation of minorities in public discourses.


text:
, Quantifying Seasonal Air-Sea Gas Exchange Processes Using Noble Gas Time-Series: A Design Experiment
, Journal of Marine Research, 2006|
A multi-year time-series of measurements of five noble gases (He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe) at a subtropical ocean location may allow quantification of air-sea gas exchange parameters with tighter constraints than currently available by other methods. We have demonstrated this using a one-dimensional upper ocean model forced by 6-hourly NCEP reanalysis winds and heat-flux for the Sargasso Sea near Bermuda. We performed ensemble model runs to characterize the response of the modeled noble gas saturation anomalies to a range of air-sea gas exchange parameters. We then used inverse calculations to quantify the sensitivity of the parameters to hypothetical observations. These calculations show that with currently achievable measurement accuracies, noble gas concentrations in the Sargasso Sea could be used to constrain the magnitude of equilibrium gas exchange to ± 11%, the magnitude of the total air injection flux to ±14%, and the magnitude of net photosynthetic oxygen production to ±1.5 mol O2 m-2 y-1. Additionally, we can use noble gases to quantify the relative contributions of bubbles that are partially dissolved to bubbles that are completely dissolved. These constraints are based on idealized assumptions and may not fully account for some of the uncertainties in the meteorological data, in lateral transport processes, and in the solubilities of the noble gases. As a limited demonstration, we applied this approach to a time series of He, Ne, Ar, and O2 measurements from the Sargasso Sea from 1985 to 1988 (data from Spitzer, 1989). Due to the limited number of gases measured and the lower accuracy of those measurements, the constraints in this example application are weaker than could be achieved with current capabilities.
FILE » stanley2006_38764.pdf


JsonBuffer is the entry point for using the library: it handles the memory management and calls the parser.
It implements a speed efficient memory pool and comes in two flavors:
 1. DynamicJsonBuffer which is allocated on the heap and grows automatically
 2. StaticJsonBuffer which is (most likely) allocated on the stack and has a fixed size.
JsonBuffer is optimized of fast allocation, but doesn't allow to free the allocated memory block. To free a JsonBuffer, you must discard the entire object.
Member functions
See also
Keep learning
Mastering ArduinoJson
The book Mastering ArduinoJson is the best material to learn how to use ArduinoJson.
Chapter 5 explains how ArduinoJson works from the inside. It explains why the class JsonBuffer is crucial for the performance of the library. It dissects StaticJsonBuffer and DynamicJsonBuffer, shows the differences between the two, and tells how to choose between them.
Chapter 6 is a troubleshooting guide that helps you get out of every difficult situation.


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Irradiation of birefringent chromosomal spindle fibres in crane-fly spermatocytes in metaphase I or anaphase I produces an area of reduced birefringence (ARB) on the fibre. This ARB moves poleward and is lost at the pole. Ultrastructural and immunofluorescence analysis of ARBs obtained by irradiation with monochromatic ultraviolet light of wavelength 260 nm shows that the microtubules in the irradiated area are depolymerized, though the rest of the spindle appears unaffected. The area of microtubule depolymerization moves poleward with the ARB, and once the ARB reaches the pole the irradiated half-spindle appears normal. The motion of the ARB, therefore, appears to be due to the behaviour of the sheared microtubules in the chromosomal spindle fibre. The relative stability of the sheared microtubules shows that chromosomal fibre microtubules are not dynamically unstable, as are microtubules under certain conditions in vitro. However, ARB motion may be due to a moderated version of dynamic instability. Possible models for ARB motion are discussed.
- © 1988 by Company of Biologists


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Severe Tropical Cyclone Thelma was the most intense cyclone to traverse the Northern Australian Region in the last 35 years and was the first Category 5 system (on the Australian scale) observed in the Timor Sea.
A tropical low was first identified in the Arafura Sea north of Arnhem Land on 1 December 1998. A deep low to middle level ridge over central Australia steered the system steadily westward. By 0000 UTC on 6 December the low was located about 280 km north of Melville Island and had deepened into cyclone Thelma. The strong low to middle level ridge which had been steering the system westward over the past few days weakened with the approach of a strong middle to upper level trough into the Northern Territory. The weakened ridge allowed the low to drift slowly southwards. A strong upper westerly jet stream developed over the Gulf of Carpentaria ahead of the amplifying trough system over the Northern Territory. The outflow from the cyclone into this developing westerly jet stream was coincident with the cyclogenesis and rapid intensification of Thelma. The system deepened to Category 5 (on the Australian scale) and estimated maximum intensity with MSW of 227 km/h by 1200 UTC on 8 December as it passed over the northwest end of the Tiwi Islands and about 185 km to the west-northwest of Darwin. A ship, positioned 50 km to the southeast of Thelma at 0230 UTC on 8 December reported MSW to 140 km/h. Radar imagery at 0600 UTC on 8 December indicated an eye diameter of 35 km contracting to 18.5 km by 2100 UTC on 8 December. The main impact on the Tiwi Islands was disruption to communications and power supplies. Vegetation in exposed areas suffered extensive damage and a 3 to 4 metre (m) rise in water level, reported in Milikapiti (Snake Bay) caused minor coastal erosion. In the Darwin area, minor damage occurred to houses and power supplies which were disabled by fallen trees. A peak wind gust of 19 m/s was recorded at Darwin Airport at 0851 UTC on 8 December. Charles Point Automatic Weather Station (AWS) recorded a peak wind gust of 29 m/s at 0550 UTC on 8 December. A record 24 hour rainfall of 425 millimetres (mm) was measured at Howard Springs and a 48 hour total of 432 mm at Darwin Airport causing local flooding in rural areas around Darwin.
Re-establishment of the low to middle level ridge during 8 and 9 December steered Thelma on a more southwestward path through the Timor Sea. SSMI data at 2318 UTC on 8 December indicated a small tight eye surrounded by deep convection enclosed in an outer more diffuse eye. By 0910 UTC on 9 December the TRMM scan showed redevelopment of deep convection and contraction of the outer eye with the inner eye wall weakening, possibly indicative of the system undergoing a concentric eye cycle. This was supported by SSMI data at 1202 UTC on 9 December which indicated further contraction of the outer eye wall as the inner eye wall weakened.
Thelma passed to the near northeast of the Troughton Island AWS on 10 December recording MSW of 137 km/h and maximum gusts to 174 km/h between 0351 UTC and 0437 UTC before failing at 0500 UTC.
While continuing to move southwest, Thelma slowly weakened before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast about 140 km northeast of Kuri Bay around 2200 UTC on 10 December as a Category 3 system. Thelma continued to move in a general southwest direction overland and was finally downgraded to a tropical low at 1500 UTC on 11 December. The low level centre moved back off the northwest Western Australia coast around 1600 UTC on 13 December but did not re-strengthen significantly. The low drifted westward for a day before making final landfall around 130 km northeast of Port Hedland at 1600 UTC on 14 December and slowly dissipated.
Track and intensity
All times in CST.


Scientists Develop Micro Microscope: Fits on a Chip, Costs $10
There's been a bit of a rush of pocket/USB digital microscopes recently, but none can hold a candle to this development from the clever chaps at Caltech. They've done a neat bit of thinking and redesigned how microscopes work: their new optofluidic microscope combines microfluidics and standard chip design, and floats samples over a pinhole-camera-like detector.
As the sample moves through a metallic microfluidic channel, either by gravity or drawn by an electric field, it passes over a line of sub-micron diameter pinholes, blocking or transmitting light (sunlight works fine). The dynamic light level is then detected by a standard CCD device behind the holes. So it's lens-free, working more like a micro-sized scanner device, and yet it has comparable image quality to a top-rate glass-lensed traditional microscope.
And it's about the size of a quarter in its entirety: making it small enough to fit into a mobile-phone-sized device, with an LCD screen. It's cheap—around $10—and easy to make, and would be perfect for developing countries for easy detection of malaria in blood and such. [Physorg]


8 8 9 triangle
Acute isosceles triangle.
Sides: a = 8 b = 8 c = 9
Area: T = 29.76547022495
Perimeter: p = 25
Semiperimeter: s = 12.5
Angle ∠ A = α = 55.77111336722° = 55°46'16″ = 0.97333899101 rad
Angle ∠ B = β = 55.77111336722° = 55°46'16″ = 0.97333899101 rad
Angle ∠ C = γ = 68.45877326556° = 68°27'28″ = 1._PHONE_ rad
Height: ha = 7.44111755624
Height: hb = 7.44111755624
Height: hc = 6.61443782777
Median: ma = 7.51766481892
Median: mb = 7.51766481892
Median: mc = 6.61443782777
Inradius: r = 2.381117618
Circumradius: R = 4.83879452545
Vertex coordinates: A[9; 0] B[0; 0] C[4.5; 6.61443782777]
Centroid: CG[4.5; 2.20547927592]
Coordinates of the circumscribed circle: U[4.5; 1.77664330231]
Coordinates of the inscribed circle: I[4.5; 2.381117618]
Exterior (or external, outer) angles of the triangle:
∠ A' = α' = 124._PHONE_° = 124°13'44″ = 0.97333899101 rad
∠ B' = β' = 124._PHONE_° = 124°13'44″ = 0.97333899101 rad
∠ C' = γ' = 111._PHONE_° = 111°32'32″ = 1._PHONE_ rad
Calculate another triangle
How did we calculate this triangle?
The calculation of the triangle progress in two phases. The first phase is to try to calculate all three sides of the triangle from the input parameters. The first phase is different for the different triangles query entered. The second phase calculates other characteristics of the triangle, such as angles, area, perimeter, heights, the center of gravity, circle radii, etc. Some input data also results in two to three correct triangle solutions (e.g., if the specified triangle area and two sides - typically resulting in both acute and obtuse) triangle).
Now we know the lengths of all three sides of the triangle, and the triangle is uniquely determined. Next, we calculate another of its characteristics - the same procedure as calculation of the triangle from the known three sides SSS.
a=8 b=8 c=9
2. Semiperimeter of the triangle
3. The triangle area using Heron's formula
Heron's formula gives the area of a triangle when the length of all three sides is known. There is no need to calculate angles or other distances in the triangle first. Heron's formula works equally well in all cases and types of triangles.
4. Calculate the heights of the triangle from its area.
There are many ways to find the height of the triangle. The easiest way is from the area and base length. The area of a triangle is half of the product of the base's length and height. Every side of the triangle can be a base; there are three bases and three heights (altitudes). Triangle height is the perpendicular line segment from a vertex to a line containing the base.
a2=b2+c22bccosα α=arccos(b2+c2a22bc)=arccos(82+92822 8 9)=554616" b2=a2+c22accosβ β=arccos(a2+c2b22ac)=arccos(82+92822 8 9)=554616" γ=180αβ=180554616"554616"=682728"
6. Inradius
An incircle of a triangle is a circle which is tangent to each side. An incircle center is called an incenter and has a radius named inradius. All triangles have an incenter, and it always lies inside the triangle. The incenter is the intersection of the three-angle bisectors. The product of the inradius and semiperimeter (half the perimeter) of a triangle is its area.
7. Circumradius
R=abc4 rs=8 8 94 2.381 12.5=4.84
8. Calculation of medians
Calculate another triangle
Look also our friend's collection of math problems and questions:
See more information about triangles or more details on solving triangles.


which every possible edge occurs independently with probability p. A closely related model, the Erdős–Rényi model denoted G(n,M), assigns equal probability to all graphs with exactly M edges. The latter model can be viewed as a snapshot at a particular time (M) of the random graph process \tilde{G}_n, which is a stochastic process that starts with n vertices and no edges, and at each step adds one new edge chosen uniformly from the set of missing edges.
If instead we start with an infinite set of vertices, and again let every possible edge occur independently with probability p, then we get an object G called an infinite random graph. Except in the trivial cases when p is 0 or 1, such a G almost surely has the following property:
Given any n + m elements a_1,\ldots, a_n,b_1,\ldots, b_m \in V, there is a vertex c\in V that is adjacent to each of a_1,\ldots, a_n and is not adjacent to any of b_1,\ldots, b_m.
It turns out that if the vertex set is countable then there is, up to isomorphism, only a single graph with this property, namely the Rado graph. Thus any countably infinite random graph is almost surely the Rado graph, which for this reason is sometimes called simply the random graph. However, the analogous result is not true for uncountable graphs, of which there are many (nonisomorphic) graphs satisfying the above property.
Another model, which generalizes Gilbert's random graph model, is the random dot-product model. A random dot-product graph associates with each vertex a real vector. The probability of an edge uv between any vertices u and v is some function of the dot product uv of their respective vectors.
The network probability matrix models random graphs through edge probabilities, which represent the probability pi,j that a given edge ei,j exists for a specified time period. This model is extensible to directed and undirected; weighted and unweighted; and static or dynamic graphs.
For M \simeq pn the two most widely used models, G(n,M) and G(n,p), are almost interchangeable[2].
Random regular graphs form a special case, with properties that may differ from random graphs in general.
Properties of random graphs
The theory of random graphs studies typical properties of random graphs, those that hold with high probability for graphs drawn from a particular distribution. For example, we might ask for a given value of n and p what the probability is that G(n,p) is connected. In studying such questions, researchers often concentrate on the asymptotic behavior of random graphs—the values that various probabilities converge to as n grows very large. Percolation theory characterizes the connectedness of random graphs, especially infinitely large ones.
(threshold functions, evolution of G~)
Random graphs are widely used in the probabilistic method, where one tries to prove the existence of graphs with certain properties. The existence of a property on a random graph can often imply, via the famous Szemerédi regularity lemma, the existence of that property on almost all graphs.
Random trees
A random tree is a tree or arborescence that is formed by a stochastic process. Types of random trees include uniform spanning tree, random minimal spanning tree, random binary tree, treap, rapidly-exploring random tree, Brownian tree, and random forest.
Random graphs were first defined by Paul Erdős and Alfréd Rényi in their 1959 paper "On Random Graphs"[3] and independently by Gilbert in his paper "Random graphs"[4].
See also
The term event symmetry refers to invariance principles that have been used in some discrete approaches to quantum gravity where the diffeomorphism invariance of general relativity can be extended to a covariance under any permutation of spacetime events.[1]
The principle of event symmetry
What it means
Since general relativity was discovered by Albert Einstein in 1915 it has been demonstrated by observation and experiment to be an accurate theory of gravitation up to cosmic scales. On small scales the laws of quantum mechanics have likewise been found to describe nature in a way consistent with every experiment performed, so far. To describe the laws of the universe fully a synthesis of general relativity and quantum mechanics must be found. Only then can physicists hope to understand the realms where both gravity and quantum come together. The big bang is one such place.
The task to find such a theory of quantum gravity is one of the major scientific endeavours of our time. Many physicists believe that string theory is the leading candidate, but string theory has so far failed to provide an adequate description of the big bang, and its success is just as incomplete in other ways. That could be because physicists do not really know what the correct underlying principles of string theory are, so they do not have the right formulation that would allow them to answer the important questions. In particular, string theory treats spacetime in quite an old fashioned way even though it indicates that spacetime must be very different at small scales from what we are familiar with.
General relativity by contrast, is a model theory based on a geometric symmetry principle from which its dynamics can be elegantly derived. The symmetry is called general covariance or diffeomorphism invariance. It says that the dynamical equations of the gravitational field and any matter must be unchanged in form under any smooth transformation of spacetime coordinates. To understand what that means you have to think of a region of spacetime as a set of events, each one labelled by unique values of four coordinate values x,y,z, and t. The first three tell us where in space the event happened, while the fourth is time and tells us when it happened. But the choice of coordinates that are used is arbitrary, so the laws of physics should not depend on what the choice is. It follows that if any smooth mathematical function is used to map one coordinate system to any other, the equations of dynamics must transform in such a way that they look the same as they did before. This symmetry principle is a strong constraint on the possible range of equations and can be used to derive the laws of gravity almost uniquely.
The principle of general covariance works on the assumption that spacetime is smooth and continuous. Although this fits in with our normal experience, there are reasons to suspect that it may not be a suitable assumption for quantum gravity. In quantum field theory, continuous fields are replaced with a more complex structure that has a dual particle-wave nature as if they can be both continuous and discrete depending on how you measure them. Research in string theory and several other approaches to quantum gravity suggest that spacetime must also have a dual continuous and discrete nature, but without the power to probe spacetime at sufficient energies it is difficult to measure its properties directly to find out how such a quantised spacetime should work.
This is where event symmetry comes in. In a discrete spacetime treated as a disordered set of events it is natural to extend the symmetry of general covariance to a discrete event symmetry in which any function mapping the set of events to itself replaces the smooth functions used in general relativity. Such a function is also called a permutation, so the principle of event symmetry states that the equations governing the laws of physics must be unchanged when transformed by any permutation of spacetime events.
How it works
It is not immediately obvious how event symmetry could work. It seems to say that taking one part of space time and swapping it with another part a long distance away is a valid physical operation and that the laws of physics have to be written in such a way that this is supported. Clearly this symmetry can only be correct if it is hidden or broken. To get this in perspective consider what the symmetry of general relativity seems to say.
A smooth coordinate transformation or diffeomorphism can stretch and twist spacetime in any way so long as it is not torn. The laws of general relativity are unchanged in form under such a transformation. Yet this does not mean that objects can be stretched or bent without being opposed by a physical force. Likewise, event symmetry does not mean that objects can be torn apart in the way the permutations of spacetime would make us believe. In the case of general relativity the gravitational force acts as a background field that controls the measurement properties of spacetime. In ordinary circumstances the geometry of space is flat and Euclidean and the diffeomorphism invariance of general relativity is hidden thanks to this background field. Only in the extreme proximity of a violent collision of black holes would the flexibility of spacetime become apparent. In a similar way, event symmetry could be hidden by a background field that determines not just the geometry of spacetime, but also its topology.
General relativity is often explained in terms of curved spacetime. We can picture the universe as the curved surface of a membrane like a soap film which changes dynamically in time. The same picture can help us understand how event symmetry would be broken. A soap bubble is made from molecules which interact via forces that depend on the orientations of the molecules and the distance between them. If you wrote down the equations of motion for all the molecules in terms of their positions, velocities and orientations, then those equations would be unchanged in form under any permutation of the molecules (which we will assume to be all the same). This is mathematically analogous to the event symmetry of spacetime events. The equations may be different, and unlike the molecules on the surface of a bubble, the events of spacetime are not embedded in a higher dimensional space, yet the mathematical principle is the same.
Physicists do not presently know if event symmetry is a correct symmetry of nature, but the example of a soap bubble shows that it is a logical possibility. If it can be


Singular solution
Alternative title: singular integral
Singular solution, in mathematics, solution of a differential equation that cannot be obtained from the general solution gotten by the usual method of solving the differential equation. When a differential equation is solved, a general solution consisting of a family of curves is obtained. For example, (y′)2 = 4y has the general solution y = (x + c)2, which is a family of parabolas (see Graph). The line y = 0 is also a solution of the differential equation, but it is not a member of the family constituting the general solution. The singular solution is related to the general solution by its being what is called the envelope of that family of curves representing the general solution. An envelope is defined as the curve that is tangent to a given family of curves. If the singular solution is an envelope, it can be found from the general solution by solving the maximum (or minimum) problem of finding the value of the parameter c for which y has a maximum (or minimum) value for a fixed x, and then substituting this value for c back into the general solution. In the example given, y has its minimum value for each x when c = -x, giving the singular solution as indicated.
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text:
In earlier progress reports dealing with the development of triaxial acceleration analysis as applied to the evaluation of pavement riding qualities, of which this report is a continuation, riding comfort or discomfort was emphasized. The accelerations monitored then were evaluated in terms of g's per sec., or "jerk" which is considered by some authorities to be a more significant index of comfort. The earlier methods of analysis have been reviewed, and acceleration is considered here to be the most practical parameter to use as a measure of pavement roughness. Most of the equipment and instrumentation has been retained, and the recording of triaxial accelerations has been continued. However, only accelerations in the vertical direction are considered in the present method of analysis.
In the summer of 1957, some 265 miles of bituminous concrete pavements were recorded and analyzed as part of a study on flexible pavement design. Since then, some 1000 additional miles of bituminous and portland cement concrete pavements have been tested. These include some older pavements, newly constructed pavements, and Inter-state sections thus far completed. Some of the roads have been re-tested periodically. These roads represent a cross section of Kentucky pavements and give an indication of the status of pavement roughness from the standpoint of workmanship on new pavements, rate of deterioration, and the effects of re-surfacing.
Digital Object Identifier
Rizenbergs, Rolands L., "Analysis of Pavement Roughness" (1961). Kentucky Transportation Center Research Report. 1224.