Subash Thapa|Jesper Bo Nielsen
Subjective expectation of reaching age 85: agreement with population statistics and association with behavioral and psychological factors
University of Southern Denmark|University of Southern Denmark
abstract background clearly known well danes estimate chances reaching average life expectancy whether identifiable population subgroups misestimate life expectancy potentially also investments savings health pensions therefore study examined individual level whether subjective life expectancy line statistically calculated chance reaching age 85 explored psychological behavioral factors associated overestimation methods opted crosssectional survey design based sample 5379 danish citizens aged 5070 years returning webbased questionnaire sociodemographic data supplemented national registry average participant estimates chance reaching age 85 age range sex group compared actuarial data performed multiple linear regression analyses examine factors associated subjective expectancy reaching age 85 years results found 32 females 23 males reported 100 certainty reaching age 85 average expected survival chance exceeded statistically predicted survival chance 23 males 16 females ageranges 5060 6170 multivariable analysis found health literacy internal health locus control willingness take health risks selfrated health health life satisfaction showed significant positive association expectation reaching age 85 moreover daily medications ex current smokers heavy drinkers significantly less optimistic reaching age 85 conclusions particularly population groups inaccurate life expectancies significant associations psychological behavioral factors open way initiatives based behavior change theories reach better agreement subjective statistical life expectancy