Martin Wiegand, Sarah L Cowan, Claire S Waddington, David J Halsall, Victoria L Keevil, Brian D M Tom, Vince Taylor, Effrossyni Gkrania-Klotsas, Jacobus Preller, Robert J B Goudie
Development and validation of a dynamic 48-hour in-hospital mortality risk stratification for COVID-19 in a UK teaching hospital: a retrospective cohort study
BMJ open
one major debates concerning nature inferential reasoning counterexamplebased theories mental model theory probabilistic theories study looks conclusion updating addition statistical information examine hypothesis deductive reasoning cannot explained probabilistic inferences study 1 participants given initial p q rule phenomenon recently discovered planet told q true asked make judgment either deductive validity probabilistic likelihood putative conclusion p true told results 1000 observations lowprobability problem 950 times p false q true whereas 50 times p true q true highprobability problem proportions inverted lowprobability problem probabilistic ratings judgments logical validity decreased however highprobability problem probabilistic ratings remained high whereas judgments logical validity significantly decreased confidence ratings consistent different pattern probabilistic deductive inferences study 2 replicated result another form inference p q p false results show deductive updating explicable bayesian updating