Yuan Chao|Yulong Zhang|Jiahui Wang|Tong Yating
Modeling and evaluation of causal factors in emergency responses to fire accidents involving oil storage system
Dalian Maritime University|Dalian Maritime University|Dalian Maritime University
according statistics 160 typical fire explosion accidents oil storage areas home abroad nearly 50 years 122 occurred secondary accidents emergency responses based 122 accident cases 21 causal factors leading secondary accidents summarized order quantify influencing degree causal factors accident consequences multiple linear regression model established modeling process factors decomposed criterion layer variable layer bottom layer improved analytic hierarchy process iahp used establish relationship bottom factors variable factors regression analysis method used establish relational model variable layer criterion layer 122 cases secondary accidents study took year statistical dimension obtained 40 groups sample data first 34 groups sample data used build causal factors model last 6 groups sample data tested generalization ability model using established regression model combined grey prediction model results show prediction ability established model better grey prediction model alone moreover relative contribution change trend causal factors evaluated using mutation progression method corresponding preventive countermeasures proposed found human professional skills knowledge literacy environmental issues firefighting facilities main influencing factors lead secondary accidents three kinds factors show gradual improvement trend existing prevention measures maintained improved problem inherent objects equipment factors effectively improved worsening trend focus prevention future prevention control efforts need moderately increased research results important guiding significance understanding quantitative influences causal factors accident consequences improving emergency response capabilities reducing accident losses avoiding secondary accidents