Andrew Powell|Richard H. Snape
The contribution of applied general equilibrium analysis to policy reform in Australia
Monash University|Monash University
analyze effects prospective policy changes sectoral economywide modelers need begin baseline estimates policy induced price distortions global trade modelers mostly use global trade analysis project gtap protection database currently relies heavily 2004 import tariffs plus organization economic cooperation development countries estimate agricultural production export subsidies year chapter addresses three questions relating extensive use database pricedistorting policy instruments worthy inclusion base year appropriate counterfactual set price distortions year concern proposed reform expected fully implemented distinct base year 2004 price distortions eg tariff rates individual products aggregated gtap product groups show additional agricultural policy instruments need included developing countries ii draw political economy theory set political econometric equations knowledge current world trade organization wtobound tariffs show developing countries could well raise agricultural protection rates coming decades absence successful conclusion wtos doha round hence appropriate counterfactual policy regime projections modeling may status quo rather higher agricultural protection rates least countries alternative counterfactual considered generates much higher estimates prospective costs embracing trade policy reform iii draw recent aggregation theory show national global welfare costs current policies seriously underestimated using conventional tariff aggregation methods