David Kahan, Thomas L McKenzie
School and Neighborhood Predictors of Physical Fitness in Elementary School Students
The Journal of school health
developed inherently interpretable multilevel bayesian framework representing variation regression coefficients mimics piecewise linearity reluactivated deep neural networks used framework formulate survival model using medical claims predict hospital readmission death focuses discharge placement adjusting confounding estimating causal local average treatment effects trained model 5 sample medicare beneficiaries 2008 2011 based 20092011 inpatient episodes approximately 12 million tested model 2012 episodes approximately 400 thousand model scored outofsample auroc approximately 075 predicting allcause readmissionsdefined using official centers medicare medicaid services cms methodologyor death within 30days discharge competitive xgboost bayesian deep neural network demonstrating one neednot sacrifice interpretability accuracy crucially regression model provides blackboxes cannotits exact goldstandard global interpretation explicitly defining model performs internal reasoning mapping input data features predictions identify relative risk factors quantify effect discharge placement also show posthoc explainer shap provides explanations inconsistent ground truth model reasoning model readily admits