Esther W. de Bekker?Grob|Joffre Swait?|Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun|Michiel C.J. Bliemer|Marcel F. Jonker|Jorien Veldwijk|Karen Cong|John M. Rose|Bas Donkers
Are Healthcare Choices Predictable? The Impact of Discrete Choice Experiment Designs and Models
Erasmus University Rotterdam|Erasmus University Rotterdam|Griffith University|University of Sydney|Erasmus University Rotterdam|Erasmus University Rotterdam|Griffith University|University of Technology Sydney|Erasmus University Rotterdam
backgroundlack evidence external validity discrete choice experiments dces one barriers inhibit greater use dces healthcare decision makingobjectivesto determine whether number alternatives dce choice task reflect actual decision context complex choice model needs able predict realworld healthcare choicesmethodssix dces used varied 1 medical condition involving choices influenza vaccination colorectal cancer screening 2 number alternatives per choice task medical condition 1200 respondents randomized one dce formats data analyzed systematic way using randomutilitymaximization choice processesresultsirrespective number alternatives per choice task choice influenza vaccination colorectal cancer screening correctly predicted dce aggregate level scale preference heterogeneity taken account individual level 3 alternatives per choice task use heteroskedastic error component model plus observed preference heterogeneity seemed promising correctly predicting 93 choicesconclusionsour study shows dces able predict choicesmimicking realworld decisionsif least scale preference heterogeneity taken account patient characteristics eg numeracy decisionmaking style general attitude experience health intervention seem play crucial role research needed determine whether result remains contexts