Heng Luo, Tingting Yang, Sejung Kwon, Mingzhang Zuo, Wenhao Li, Ikseon Choi
Using virtual reality to identify and modify risky pedestrian behaviors amongst Chinese children
Traffic injury prevention
us intelligence analysts must weigh relevant evidence assess probability conclusions express reasoning clearly written reports decisionmakers typically work alone special analytic tools sometimes succumb common probabilistic causal reasoning errors us government funded major research program create four large academic teams develop new structured collaborative softwarebased methods might achieve better results teams method bard first combine two key techniques constructing causal bayesian network models bns represent analyst knowledge smallgroup collaboration via delphi technique bard also incorporates compressed highquality online training allowing novices use checklistinspired report templates rudimentary ai tool generating text explanations analysts bns two prior experiments team showed bards bnbuilding assists probabilistic reasoning used individuals large effect glass 08 cruz et al 2020 even minimal delphistyle interactions improve bn structures individuals produce medium large effects glass 0513 bolger et al 2020 experiment critical test bard integrated system possible alternative businessasusual intelligence analysis participants asked solve three probabilistic reasoning problems spread 5 weeks developed team test quantitative accuracy susceptibility tempting qualitative fallacies 256 participants randomly assigned form 25 teams 69 using bard 58 individuals using google suite desired best penandpaper techniques problem bard outperformed control large huge effects glass 1422 greatly exceeding creates initial target conclude suitable problems bard already offers significant advantages businessasusual existing bn software effect sizes also suggest bards bnbuilding collaboration combined beneficially cumulatively although implementation differences decreased performances compared cruz et al 2020 interaction may contributed bard enormous potential development testing specific components complex problems many potential applications beyond intelligence analysis