A Biedermann, F Taroni
Bayesian networks and probabilistic reasoning about scientific evidence when there is a lack of data
Forensic science international
people often learn new scientific findings brief news reports may discount ignore prior research potentially contributing misunderstanding findings preregistered study investigated people interpret brief news report new drug weight loss participants read article either highlighted importance prior research judging drugs effectiveness made mention issue articles describing prior research mean confidence drug 62 articles noted prior research conducted confidence increased proportion studies positive findings increased prior research highlighted confidence decreased small amount even increased ie even evidence supported drugs effectiveness thus peoples judgements sceptical necessarily accurate judgements affected education level statistics experience personal relevance research topic