Andrea Taylor|Suraje Dessai|Wändi Bruine de Bruin
Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe
University of Leeds|University of Leeds|University of Leeds|Carnegie Mellon University
across europe organizations different sectors sensitive climate variability change range temporal scales seasonal interannual multidecadal climate forecast providers face challenge communicating uncertainty inherent forecasts decisionmakers way transparent understandable lead false sense certainty article reports findings userneeds survey conducted 50 representatives organizations europe variety sectors eg water management forestry energy tourism health interested seasonal interannual climate forecasts find many participating organizations perform house risk analysis require form processing interpretation forecast providers however also find users tend perceive seasonal interannual forecasts useful often find difficult understand highlighting need communication formats suitable expert nonexpert users addition results show people tend prefer familiar formats receiving information uncertainty implications findings providers users climate information discussed