John D Donlon, Conor G McAloon, John F Mee
Performance of various interpretations of clinical scoring systems for diagnosis of respiratory disease in dairy calves in a temperate climate using Bayesian latent class analysis
Journal of dairy science
fundamental principles precaution legal maxims ask preventive actions perhaps contingent interim measures relevant information causality harm remains unavailable minimize societal impact potentially severe irreversible outcomes principles explain make choices identify protective incomplete inconsistent scientific evidence causation characterizes potential hazards rather entrust lower jurisdictions agencies authorities make current decisions recognizing future information contradict scientific basis supported initial decision reviewing synthesizing national international legal aspects precautionary principles paper addresses key question society manage potentially severe irreversible serious environmental outcomes variability uncertainty limited causal knowledge characterize decisionmaking decisionanalytic solution outlined focuses risky decisions accounts prior states information scientific beliefs updated subsequent information becomes available practical established approach causal reasoning decisionmaking risk inherent precautionary decisionmaking bayesian methods help decisionmakers stakeholders formally account probabilistic outcomes new information consistent replicable rational choice action among various alternativesdefined choice makes preferred consequences likelyrequires accounting costs benefits change risks associated candidate action decisions form precautionary principle reviewed must account contingent nature scientific information creating link decisionanalytic principle expected value information voi show relevance new information relative initial smaller set data decision based exemplify seemingly simple situation using risk management bse integral aspect causal analysis risk methods developed paper permit addition nonlinear hormetic doseresponse models current set regulatory defaults linear nonthreshold models increase number defaults important improvement variants precautionary principle require costbenefit balancing specifically increasing set causal defaults accounts beneficial effects low doses also show conclude quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment supporting extension set default causal models