Richard S.J. Tol|Kristie L. Ebi|Gary Yohe
Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis
Economic and Social Research Institute|Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam|Carnegie Mellon University|Wesleyan University
study effects development climate change infectious diseases subsaharan africa infant mortality infectious disease closely related better data former international crosssection per capita income literacy absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality use scenarios three determinants climate change project future incidence malaria assuming change proportionally infant mortality malaria deaths first increase population growth climate change fall development pattern robust choice scenario parameters starting conditions holds diarrhoea schistosomiasis dengue fever well however timing level mortality peak sensitive assumptions climate change important medium term dominated long term development climate changed substantial delay development preferred strategy reduce infectious diseases even exacerbated climate change development particular support needed strengthening disease control programs short run thereby increase capacity cope projected increases infectious diseases medium long term conclusion must however viewed caution development even sort envisioned underlying socioeconomic scenarios means certain