Anthony Patt|Mark Tadross|Patrick Nussbaumer|K. O. Asante|Marc J. Metzger|José Rafael|Anne Goujon|G. B. Brundrit
Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis|University of Cape Town|Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona|University of Edinburgh|Wageningen University & Research|Eduardo Mondlane University|International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis|Vienna Institute of Demography|Austrian Academy of Sciences|University of Cape Town
least developed countries vulnerable climate change given influence projected socioeconomic development question important least current levels international assistance support adaptation lag order magnitude analysts estimate needed scaling support could take many years paper examine question using empirically derived model human losses climaterelated extreme events indicator vulnerability need adaptation assistance develop set 50year scenarios losses one country mozambique using highresolution climate projections extend results sample 23 leastdeveloped countries approach takes account potential changes countries exposure climatic extreme events socioeconomic development trends influence countries adaptive capacities results suggest effects socioeconomic development trends may begin offset rising climate exposure second quarter century period vulnerability rise quickly implies urgency need international assistance finance adaptation