A Botes
[Evaluation of arguments in research reports]
Curationis
peoples reactions coincidences often cited illustration irrationality human reasoning chance argue coincidences may better understood terms rational statistical inference based functional role processes causal discovery theory revision present formal definition coincidences context bayesian framework causal induction coincidence event provides support alternative currently favored causal theory necessarily enough support accept alternative light low prior probability test qualitative quantitative predictions account series experiments examine transition coincidence evidence correspondence strength coincidences statistical support causal structure relationship causes coincidences results indicate people accurately assess strength coincidences suggesting irrational conclusions drawn coincidences consequence overestimation plausibility novel causal forces discuss implications account understanding role coincidences theory change