S D Radic, B A Milenkovic, B S Gvozdenovic, Z M Zivkovic, I M Pesic, D D Babic
The correlation between parental education and their knowledge of asthma
Allergologia et immunopathologia
west nile virus wnv global arbovirus prevalent mosquitotransmitted infection united states forecasts wnv risk upcoming transmission season could provide basis targeted mosquito control disease prevention efforts developed arbovirus mapping prediction arbomap wnv forecasting system used south dakota 2016 2019 study reports post hoc forecast validation model comparison objective validate historical predictions wnv cases independent data used model calibration tested hypothesis predictive models based mosquito surveillance data combined meteorological variables accurate models based mosquito meteorological data alone arbomap system incorporated models predicted weekly probability observing one human wnv cases county compared alternative models different predictors including baseline model based historical wnv cases b mosquito models based seasonal patterns infection rates c environmental models based lagged meteorological variables including temperature vapor pressure deficit combined models mosquito infection rates lagged meteorological variables e ensembles two combined models wnv season models calibrated using data previous years weekly predictions made using data current year forecasts compared observed cases calculate area receiver operating characteristic curve auc metrics spatial temporal prediction error mosquito environmental models outperformed baseline model included countylevel averages seasonal trends wnv cases combined models accurate models based meteorological mosquito infection variables accurate model simple ensemble mean two best combined models forecast accuracy increased rapidly early june early july stable thereafter maximum auc 085 model predictions captured seasonal pattern wnv well yeartoyear variation case numbers geographic pattern cases predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough wnv season allow public health responses peak human cases august early warning necessary indicators wnv risk including early reports human cases mosquito abundance poor predictors case numbers later season httpsdoiorg101289ehp10287