Mauricio Santos?Vega|Menno J. Bouma|Vijay Kohli|Mercedes Pascual
Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India
University of Chicago|University of London|London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine|Universitat de Barcelona|Smt. N.H.L. Municipal Medical College|University of Chicago
background world rapidly becoming urban global population living cities projected double 2050 increase urbanization poses new challenges spread control communicable diseases malaria particular urban environments create highly heterogeneous socioeconomic environmental conditions affect transmission vectorborne diseases dependent human water storage waste water management interestingly india opposed africa harbors mosquito vector anopheles stephensi thrives manmade environments cities acts vector plasmodium vivax plasmodium falciparum making malaria problem truly urban phenomenon address role determinants withincity spatial heterogeneity incidence patterns vivax malaria draw comparisons results falciparum malaria methodologyprincipal findings statistical analyses phenomenological transmission model applied extensive spatiotemporal dataset cases plasmodium vivax city ahmedabad gujarat india spans 12 years monthly level wards spatial pattern malaria incidence described largely stationary time parasite malaria risk shown associated socioeconomic indicators environmental parameters temperature humidity dynamical perspective inhomogeneous markov chain model used predict vivax malaria risk models account climate factors socioeconomic level population size show highest predictive skill comparison transmission dynamics falciparum malaria reinforces conclusion spatiotemporal patterns risk strongly driven extrinsic factors conclusionsignificance climate forcing socioeconomic heterogeneity act synergistically local scales population dynamics urban malaria city stationarity malaria risk patterns provides basis targeted intervention vector control based transmission hotspots especially relevant p vivax resilient parasite p falciparum due ability relapse operational shortcomings delivering radical cure