Nathan Keyfitz
Can Knowledge Improve Forecasts?
major theoretical advances understanding operating forces society led corresponding improvement techniques forecasting ranging across major socioeconomic theories bearing demographic trends demographic transition theory human capital theory paper asks whether scientific results neglected forecasters would help population forecasting nature scholarship makes unusable purpose static conditional nature theory presence confounding factors swamp postulated effect uncertainty timing among major limitations application theoretical insights forecasting pending discovery truly behavioral way estimating future extrapolation observed regularities past remains best expected