David Autor
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology|Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology
essay begin identifying reasons automation wiped majority jobs decades centuries automation indeed substitute laboras typically intended however automation also complements labor raises output ways leads higher demand labor interacts adjustments labor supply journalists even expert commentators tend overstate extent machine substitution human labor ignore strong complementarities automation labor increase productivity raise earnings augment demand labor changes technology alter types jobs available jobs pay last decades one noticeable change polarization labor market wage gains went disproportionately top bottom income skill distribution middle however also argue polarization unlikely continue far future final section paper reflects recent future advances artificial intelligence robotics shape thinking likely trajectory occupational change employment growth argue interplay machine human comparative advantage allows computers substitute workers performing routine codifiable tasks amplifying comparative advantage workers supplying problemsolving skills adaptability creativity