Petra Döll
Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment
Goethe University Frankfurt
climate change lead significant changes groundwater recharge thus renewable groundwater resources using global water resources use model watergap impact climate change groundwater recharge number affected people computed four climate scenarios two climate models vulnerability humans decreased groundwater resources depends degree decrease sensitivity human system decrease grid cell sensitivity index composed water scarcity indicator indicator dependence water supply groundwater human development index quantified combining per cent groundwater recharge decrease sensitivity index global maps vulnerability impact decreased groundwater recharge 2050s derived a2 b2 emissions scenario 184193 161181 global population 107 91 billion would affected groundwater recharge decreases least 10 4857 3838 global population would two highest vulnerability classes highest vulnerabilities found north african rim mediterranean sea southwestern africa northeastern brazil central andes areas moderate high sensitivity areas high population density high sensitivity model results indicate groundwater recharge unlikely decrease 10 2050s however fifth third population may affected groundwater recharge increase 10 negative impacts case shallow water tables spatial distribution vulnerability even continental scale differs strongly two climate models two emissions scenarios