Weiguang Xie, Jingyi Xiao, Jingyi Chen, Hanzhong Huang, Xuehua Huang, Shaoyi He, Lin Xu
Impact of health education on promoting influenza vaccination health literacy in primary school students: a cluster randomised controlled trial protocol
BMJ open
among various bayesian problems probability problem three prisoners lindley 1971 mosteller 1965 especially good example illustrates drastic discrepancy intuitive reasoning mathematical formal reasoning probability particular raises intriguing questions concerning mathematical cognitive relevance factors prior probabilities context certain information given current paper report new version problem turned even counterintuitive new version also designed different inferential schemes would lead separate estimates posterior probability data obtained questionnaires theoretical analyses original modified problems suggest 1 psychological processes intuitive reasoning qualitatively different mathematical reasoning 2 tendency neglect prior probabilities tversky kahneman 1974 1982 always critical factor illusory judgments 3 intuitive judgments categorized several distinctive propositional beliefs judgments apparently derived call prototypical crude beliefs subjective theorems discuss nature roles current paper