Gerhard Mihaljek Pohl|Dubravko Mihaljek
Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice: A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1,015 World Bank Projects
World Bank|World Bank
article analyzes world banks experience project evaluation sample 1015 projects comparing estimated rates return appraisal reestimated rates return construction works completed usually 5 10 years appraisal analysis highlights high degree uncertainty project analysis wide range variables introduced explain observed divergence appraisal reestimated rates return relatively small part divergence explained even benefit hindsight project analysis thus cope large degree uncertainty traditional methods project evaluation selection able reduce