Sammy Zahran|Eun Kim|Xi Chen|Mark Lubell
Ecological Development and Global Climate Change: A Cross-National Study of Kyoto Protocol Ratification
Colorado State University|Incheon National University|Texas A&M University|University of California, Davis
abstract article adapts theory ecological modernization characterize countries economic political cultural development estimate structural strategic readiness commit comply kyoto protocol hypotheses logically derived ecological modernization theory perform expected substantial variation kyoto protocol ratification explained variable pool results logistic cox proportional hazards regression tests show democratic openness gross domestic product gdp output per unit energy input co2 emissions per capita record international cooperation transboundary environmental problems significantly predict whether country party protocol quickly country submits instrument ratification keywords climate change policydevelopmentecological modernizationglobal climate changekyoto protocol material based research conducted institute science technology public policy texas university supported award na03oar4310164 national oceanic atmospheric administration noaa us department commerce statements findings conclusions recommendatiendations authors necessarily reflect views national oceanic atmospheric administration department commerce notes p 01 p 05 p 10 p 01 p 05 p 10 1 china second united states total tonnage co2 emitted annually india fifth among countries total emissions per capita terms china 18th india 20th historical terms china india emitted comparatively less co2 fully industrialized countries marland boden andres citation2000 2 ecological marxists treadmillofproduction theorists note positive changes spring second contradiction market economies solve first contradiction capitalismthe systemic tension forces social relations productionwestern governments subsidized private enterprise increasing provision primary social goods ordinary citizens fiscal solutions set motion environmentally pernicious treadmill production entropic irreversibility environmental degradation increases cost production inputs turn circuit accumulation also environment polluted production externalities ordinary citizens radicalized governments respond citizen concerns passing environmental laws regulations laws increase costs production producing liquidity crises cost side private enterprise oconnor citation1998 schnaiberg citation1980 ecological marxists see unfolding second contradiction capitalism signal corruption capitalist democracy whereas em theorists see opportunities progressive reform environmental crises way revealing architectures social power see molotch lester citation1975 also reveal mechanisms change adaptation adjusted decrease probabilities future crisis emt account societies discover mechanisms change reinforce incentives achieve environmentally sustainable development 3 relationship economic development ecological modernization perfectly clear take example relationship economic development energy efficiency allowing slightly higher alpha level find weak positive correlation energy efficiency gdp output per unit energy input gdp per capita r 185 p 056 negative relationship gdp per capita countrys hydroelectric renewable energy use percentage total energy consumption r 183 p 059 results suggest purely economic concept modernization may fully explain countries graduate environmentally less harmful modes production consumption 4 example united states passage numerous environmental laws 1970s 1980s enabled extraordinary growth environmental industry 1990s data show revenue constant dollars environmental industry increased 59 billion 1980 198 billion 1999 environmental industry segments like hazardous waste management consulting engineering process prevention technology air pollution control equipment revenue increased 418 1050 percent time period statistical abstract united states citation19992001 5 ran logistic cox regression models predicting protocol ratification education index recoded variable assigns score 3 countries falling highhigh quadrant 2 countries falling either combination highlow score 1 countries plotted lowlow quadrant logistic model unit increase recoded variable increases odds ratio 477 exp b 5773 p 000 cox regression unit increase recoded variable increases hazard rate 76 p 000