Hongbin Li|Prashant Loyalka|Scott Rozelle|Binzhen Wu
Human Capital and China’s Future Growth
Stanford University|Tsinghua University
paper consider sources prospects economic growth china focus human capital first provide overview role labor played chinas economic success describe chinas hukou policy divides chinas labor force two distinct segments one composed rural workers urban workers rural labor force focus challenges raising human capital increasing basic educational attainment rates well quality education urban labor force focus issues expanding enrollment college education well improving quality college education use regression model show typical relationship human capital output economies around world demonstrate relationship evolved since 1980 show china made substantial strides education level population way education rewarded labor markets however look ahead results imply china may find impossible maintain appears desired growth rate 7 percent next 20 years growth rate 3 percent next two decades seems plausible finally present policy recommendations rooted belief china continues substantial room improve human capital labor force