Dana G Rowe, Antoinette J Charles, Emily J Luo, Alissa M Arango, James E Herndon, Harrison Hockenberry, Cynthia K Shortell, C Rory Goodwin, Melissa M Erickson
Variation in Oral Board Examination Accommodations Among Specialties
JAMA network open
background largescale school closures implemented worldwide curb spread covid19 however impact school closures reopening epidemic dynamics remains unclear methods simulated covid19 transmission dynamics using individualbased stochastic model incorporating socialcontact data schoolaged children shelterinplace orders derived bay area california household surveys simulated transmission observed conditions counterfactual intervention scenarios march 17june 1 evaluated various fall 2020 k12 reopening strategies findings march 17june 1 assuming children 10 half susceptible infection older children adults estimated school closures averted similar number infections 13842 cases 95 ci 6290 23040 workplace closures 15813 95 ci 9963 22617 social distancing measures 7030 95 ci 3118 11676 school closure effects driven high school middle school closures assumptions moderate community transmission estimate fall 2020 school reopenings increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers additional 407 expected experience symptomatic infection 95 ci 19 611 middle school teachers 372 95 ci 46 581 elementary school teachers 41 95 ci 17 120 results highly dependent uncertain parameters notably relative susceptibility infectiousness children extent community transmission amid reopening schoolbased interventions needed reduce risk fewer additional 1 teachers infected varies grade level hybridlearning approach halved class sizes 10 students may needed high schools maintaining small cohorts 20 students may needed elementary schools interpretation multiple inschool intervention strategies community transmission reductions beyond extent achieved date necessary avoid undue excess risk associated school reopening policymakers must urgently enact policies curb community transmission implement withinschool control measures simultaneously address tandem health crises posed covid19 adverse child health development consequences longterm school closures