John Bongaarts
Africa's Unique Fertility Transition
population development reviewvolume 43 issue s1 p 3958 fertility transition africafree access africas unique fertility transition john bongaarts john bongaartssearch papers author john bongaarts john bongaartssearch papers author first published 03 october 2016 httpsdoiorg101111j17284457201600164xcitations 71aboutsectionspdf toolsrequest permissionexport citationadd favoritestrack citation shareshare give accessshare full text accessshare fulltext accessplease review terms conditions use check box share fulltext version articlei read accept wiley online library terms conditions useshareable linkuse link share fulltext version article friends colleagues learn morecopy url share linkshare onfacebooktwitterlinkedinredditwechat past half century substantial changes reproductive behavior occurred throughout developing world total fertility rate declining 56 percentfrom 60 27 births per woman 1960 2010 united nations 2015 declines especially rapid asia latin america period subsaharan africa africa fertility transition occurred later proceeding slower pace result high african fertility declining mortality population region growing faster rate 25 percent per year regions developing world un projects subsaharan population grow 08 billion 2010 39 billion 2100 ibid unprecedented expansion human numbers create range social economic environmental challenges make difficult continent raise living standards surprisingly interest concerns adverse consequences demographic trends africa reached high levels among policymakers researchers although fertility transitions started nearly african countries declines often modest addition fertility number african countries stalled midtransition pattern rarely observed elsewhere bongaarts 2006 2008 ezeh mberu emina 2009 machiyama 2010 shapiro gebreselassie 2008 shapiro et al 2013 westoff cross 2006 raises question whether africas fertility transitions exceptional policies programs implemented accelerate fertility decline article presents assessment trends regional fertility development examination fertility transition patterns identifies key differences regions developing world provides insights africas transitions slow compared earlier transitions asia latin america analysis carried highly aggregate regional level country subnational patterns rarely examined described later chapters possible explanations africas distinct transitions simplest explanation distinct fertility transitions africa provided conventional demographic transition theory formulated explain fertility decline occurred west late nineteenth century 1930s davis 1945 notestein 1945 1953 according theory fertility transitions driven social economic development societies modernize economic social changes industrialization urbanization new occupational structure increased education lead first lower mortality subsequently decline fertility reduction desired family size results rising costs children eg education declining economic value eg labor oldage security considered central forces driving transition desire smaller families turn leads rise demand adoption birth control theory applies contemporary societies one would expect later onset transitions africa result lower levels development region slow pace fertility decline result slower improvements development shown fertility patterns observed africa consistent conventional transition theory others several possible explanations inconsistent findings first response fertility development could fundamentally different africa elsewhere developing world view expressed persuasively caldwell collaborators 1987 1988 1992 argue african societies unique pronatalist features see casterlines chapter volume discussion empirical evidence support african exceptionalism provided second countries fertility levels indeed inversely related socioeconomic indicators bryant 2007 hirschman 2001 relationship typically loose one conventional fertility theory could therefore incomplete ignores important processes affect transition view became widely accepted detailed analyses historical contemporary data found patterns inconsistent conventional theories best known analyses massive study provincelevel data european countries period 18701960 coale watkins 1986 knodel van de walle 1979 watkins 1986 1987 yielded two surprising conclusions 1 socioeconomic conditions weakly predictive fertility declines transitions started widely varying levels development 2 region country begun decline neighboring regions sharing language culture followed short delays even less developed similarly results world fertility surveys 41 developing countries 1970s early 1980s failed find expected dominant influence economic characteristics fertility cleland 1985 cleland wilson 1987 moreover levels trends fertility developing world since 1950s deviated stubstantially expectations bongaarts watkins 1996 example hong kong singapore started fertility transitions much higher levels income literacy urbanization bangladesh fertility decline began country still largely rural agricultural fertility declined sharply countries unfavorable development conditions eg bangladesh indonesia traditional poor rural agricultural societies yet fertility declined low levels 1990s unexpected findings required revision thinking fertility transition led introduction theories diffusion innovations diffusion refers process new ideas behaviors attitudes spread within population variety mechanisms eg social networks opinion leaders media spread rapid within linguistically culturally homogeneous populations often largely independent social economic changes particular diffusion information methods birth control considered important mechanism fertility change addition new ideas costs benefits children may lead smaller desired family size also subject diffusion processes eg cleland 2001 cleland wilson 1987 casterline 2001a 2001b hornik mcanany 2001 knodel van de walle 1979 kohler 2001 montgomery casterline 1993 1996 national research council 2001 retherford palmore 1983 rogers 1973 1983 watkins 1987 since africa latest world region enter fertility transition one might expect diffusion ideas birth control nonafrican countries africa cause african onset transition earlier time lower levels development would case without diffusion pattern indeed observed shown third noted caldwell orubuloye caldwell 1992 adoption voluntary family planning programs could slower less pervasive africa regions developing world evidence high levels unintended pregnancies persuaded many governments international organizations implement programs 1960s onward asia latin america efforts accelerated fertility declines bongaarts et al 2012 cleland et al 2006 freedman berelson 1976 majority african countries however including nigeria congo dr sahel family planning still given low priority government leaders reluctant discuss contraception benefits smaller families may 2012 empirical analysis following sections documents unique features african transitions sheds light possible explanations findings regional fertility development levels africa different first step examining roles various determinants fertility provide overview longrange trends regional averages several key variables allows basic comparison average subsaharan african patterns developing regions time examine annual trends five countrylevel indicatorsone outcome variable fertility measured total fertility rate united nations 2015 four socioeconomic determinants log gdp per capita ppp penn world table feenstra inklaar timmer 2013 education level measured percent women aged 1535 least primary education wittgenstein centre 2014 life expectancy birth united nations 2015 percent urban united nations 2014a set countries included analysis obtained applying following exclusion criteria developing countries see casterline 2001b similar approach 1 countries population size less 1 million 1970 2 countries started fertility transition 1950 indicated fertility levels 5 births per woman 1950 3 former soviet states 4 rich oil exporters exclusions 88 countries available 36 subsaharan africa 52 regions estimates tfr life expectancy percent urban available 88 countries 1960 2010 data gdp per capita education missing many countries especially 1970 analysis therefore focus period 1970 2010 figures tables results presented unweighted averages country estimates separately subsaharan africa developing regions asianorth africa latin america total fertility rate figure 1 plots average tfr africa including n africa asianorth africa latin america 1960 2010 half century average africa always exceeded average two regions difference rising time reaching 25 births per woman 2010 asianorth africa latin america show similar pattern decline remaining tables figures two regions combined one called ldcs nonafrican figure 1open figure viewerpowerpoint total fertility rate africa developing regions 19602010 transition onset key indicator used analysis year onset fertility transition measured time tfr declined 10 percent pretransitional maximum coale treadway 19861 measure one countries included analysis experienced onset 20142 cumulative distribution year onset plotted figure 2 years countrylevel onsets africa range 1980 madagascar 2012 mali exceptions south africa 1970 niger average year onsets 1995 nonafrican countries countrylevel onset years ranged 1960 singapore 1994 yemen also one exception afghanistan 2005 average onsets occurred 19753 clearly substantial variation timing country onsets within region developed countries region tending enter transition earliest eg countries southern africa entered earlier countries west africa hand substantial 20year difference average onsets africa ldcs figure 2open figure viewerpowerpoint cumulative percent distribution year country transition onset africa ldcs 19602010 gdp per capita ppp 1970 many nonafrican ldcs already experienced substantial development average gdp per capita time estimated 2100 per capita twice african level subsequent decades economies nonafrican ldcs grew rapidly 2010 gdp per capita reached 6000 contrast africa experienced little change standards living past half century fact continents gdp per capita slumped temporarily 1980s 1990s rise 1970 level 2000 figure 3 circles figure 3 indicate average year onset fertility transition occurred figure 3open figure viewerpowerpoint gpd per capita ppp africa ldcs 1970s2010 education level indicator risen steadily since 1970 nearly developing countries mostly result massive investments education sector figure 4 however african average consistently lags average ldcs 2010 proportion least primary education reached 47 percent subsaharan africa 84 percent ldcs figure 4open figure viewerpowerpoint level education africa ldcs 1970s2010 life expectancy indictor already risen substantially 1970 result public health interventions preceding decades nonafrican countries life expectancy sexes combined continued rise steadily 51 years 1960 72 years 2010 figure 5 subsaharan africa also experienced improvements 1970s early 1980s progress stalled due massive aids epidemic spread throughout continent severely affected countries southern eastern africa life expectancy actually declined 1990s africas average life expectancy rise 50 years 2000 large investments treatment prevention programs reduced aids death rate figure 5open figure viewerpowerpoint life expectancy africa ldcs 19602010 urbanization percent urban risen since 1970 regions developing world urbanization occurred later africa elsewhere figure 6 result percent urban higher former latter throughout recent decades figure 6open figure viewerpowerpoint percent urban africa ldcs 19602010 trends summarized figures 16 substantially consistent conventional fertility theory african fertility higher developing countries past several decades level development lower elsewhere however also interesting finding predicted conventional demographic theory indicated circles figures levels development indicators time transition onset lower african nonafrican countries table 1 presents evidence issue country level four development indicators onset year calculated table provides average values indicators transition onset year results confirm average values socioeconomic indicators time transition onset lower subsaharan africa ldcs unexpected finding consistent analysis bongaarts watkins 1996 found level development onset transition declined time among countries example first transitions developing world took place hong kong singapore around 1960 countries substantially higher indicators development poorer asian countries time transition 1970s 1980s african countries 1990s bongaarts watkins attributed effect role diffusion ideas social influence individual country global level particular diffusion ideas birth control nonafrican countries africa appears resulted earlier african onset fertility transition would case without diffusion table 1 average values socioeconomic indicators year transition onset africa ldcs average time transition onset subsaharan africa ldcs year transition onseta 1995 1975 gdp per capita log 69 77 education percent primary 29 42 life expectancy years 51 59 percent urban 29 40 year tfr declined 10 percent pretransitional maximum pace change regional fertility development preceding section examined levels fertility socioeconomic indicators time without commenting rate change variables africas fertility seems declining relatively slow pace examine issue calculate pace change indicators absolute annual change difference estimates one year previous year socioeconomic indicators usually yields positive pace indicators tend rise time however tfr tends decline time annual change therefore usually negative simplify comparisons among indicators pace tfr measured absolute annual decline usually positive resulting pace estimates plotted figures 711 correspond absolute levels given figures 1 3 4 5 6 figures also includes two circles first points period mid1970s around average time transition onset nonafrican countries second mid1990s around transition onset subsaharan africa figure 7open figure viewerpowerpoint annual pace change total fertility rate africa ldcs 19602010 figure 8open figure viewerpowerpoint annual rate change gdp per capita africa ldcs 19702010 figure 9open figure viewerpowerpoint annual pace change level education africa ldcs 19602010 figure 10open figure viewerpowerpoint annual pace change life expectancy africa ldcs 19602010 figure 11open figure viewerpowerpoint annual pace change percent urban africa ldcs 19602010 total fertility rate expected early onset transition nonafrican countries pace change tfr rose sharply 1960s reached peak rate decline 011 births per woman per year mid1970s figure 7 pace remained near 01 1990s declining sharply 2000s future pace approach zero countries reach end transitions near 2 births per woman african pattern quite different 1960s part 1970s pace negative reflecting rising tfr 1980s pace rose countries began entering transitions peak reached mid1990s second circle occurred lower level nonafrican countries 1990s 2000s average african pace remained around 006 40 percent lower transition pace nonafrican countries gdp per capita nonafrican countries average growth rate gdp per capita around 3 percent per year early 1970s followed period slower growth 1980s peaks early 1990s 2000s figure 8 african pattern broadly similar shape lower growth rate near zero 1980 mid1990s 2000 regions experienced quite rapid growth education pace improvement education level peaked 1970s ldcs 1990s africa figure 9 pace transition onset lower africa elsewhere life expectancy regions experienced fairly rapid pace increase 1970s early 1980s although different absolute levels trends diverged strongly aids epidemic took hold african life expectancy dropped short period figure 10 recent sharp upswing life expectancy africa due rapid uptake art treatment decline new hiv infections investments public health programs rebound still leaves substantial life expectancy gap african nonafrican countries 2010 percent urban urbanization proceeded rapid pace throughout developing world since 1970 pace declined slightly time africas pace generally lower ldcs figure 11 table 2 presents average values pace change tfr socioeconomic indicators transition years countries findings lead two conclusions 1 pace fertility decline slower time transition onset africa ldcs 2 pace change development indicators time onset slower africa rest ldcs results broadly consistent classical transition theory assumes relationship development fertility hence correlation rate change fertility rates change determinants apparently key explanation relatively slow pace fertility decline subsaharan africa 1990s lies generally continents slower pace development period table 2 average pace change tfr development indicators year transition onset average pace time transition onset subsaharan africa ldcs year transition onset 1995 1975 tfr decline 009 015 gdp per capita log 00 004 education percent primary 11 20 life expectancy years 017 054 percent urban 032 056 africa effect preceding analysis past regional trends found relationship socioeconomic development onset pace transition different africa ldcs examine impact past differences fertility 2010 key objective determine whether africa effect whether countries africa systematically higher fertility countries regions controlling socioeconomic development figures 1215 plot country estimates tfr gdp per capita education life expectancy percent urban available countries 2010 african country represented solid square nonafrican country open circle regression lines fitted separately african nonafrican data points figure several conclusions drawn correlations fertility development indicators expected negative direction fertility tends lower higher level gdp per capita education life expectancy percent urban findings consistent conventional view development lower mortality key determinants fertility decline correlations far perfect considerable variation around regression lines cluster african countries lies largely cluster nonafrican countries given level development exception figure 13 life expectancy distorted aids epidemic finding indicates existence africa effect confirm conclusion estimate multiple regression tfr dependent variable four socioeconomic indicators dummy variable africa explanatory variables results summarized first column table 3 main finding africa effect statistically significant 11 births per woman4 figure 12open figure viewerpowerpoint relationship tfr gdp per capita africa ldcs 2010 figure 13open figure viewerpowerpoint relationship tfr level education africa ldcs 2010 figure 14open figure viewerpowerpoint relationship tfr life expectancy africa ldcs 2010 figure 15open figure viewerpowerpoint relationship tfr percent urban africa ldcs 2010 table 3 results ols regressions tfr contraceptive prevalence desired family size dependent variables tfr contraceptive prevalence desired family size africa effect 11 11 12 gdp per capita 033 083 03 education 0019 051 27 life expectancy 003 065 004 percent urban 000 015 001 r2 084 086 072 n 71 71 39 year 2010 2010 latest dhs p001 p001 p005 cause substantial africa effect investigate issue estimate two additional multiple regressions first contraceptive prevalence 2010 estimated united nations 2014b dependent variable explanatory variables tfr regression results presented second column table 3 africa effect substantial statistically significant 11 percent final regression desired family size dependent variable explanatory variables used estimates desired family size taken latest available dhs surveys 42 countries source desired family size estimates countries 2010 results last column table 3 show substantial significant africa effect desired family size finding consistent results bongaarts 2011 bongaarts casterline 2013 noted desired family size change fairly quickly development proceeds family planning programs emphasize benefits smaller families5 key finding africa effect approximately size tfr 11 desired family size 12 implies africa effect arises largely link socioeconomic indicators desired family size rather desired family size fertility conclusion study uncovered expected unexpected patterns fertility transitions african populations results summarized concisely african transition later earlier slower higher previous transitions regions developing world later onset transition africa occurred average mid1990s two decades later nonafrican ldcs delay less accord conventional theory predicts transitions take place later countries socioeconomic development delayed earlier level development time onset african fertility transitions lower onsets ldcs words african transitions occurred earlier would africa followed nonafrican relationship fertility development finding expected diffusion theory slower pace fertility decline time african transition onsets slower comparable pace onsets nonafrican transitions pace improvement development indicators time african onsets also slower finding therefore largely accord conventional demographic theory higher given level development africas fertility higher contraceptive use lower desired family size higher nonafrican ldcs higher preferences explain lower prevalence contraception higher fertility reasons relatively high preferences lie traditional pronatalist social economic cultural practices discussed caldwell orubuloye caldwell 1992 slow pace african transitions occasional stalling fertility declines therefore attributed several factors first pace african development slow things equal alone would lead slower transitions second pronatalist nature african societies implies resistance fertility decline absent weaker nonafrican countries finally although examined role family planning programs africa fact programs remain weak many african countries undoubtedly contributes slow transitions much continent contrast countries governments made family planning programs priority eg ethiopia malawi rwanda rapid uptake contraception fertility decline followed notes research supported grant william flora hewlett foundation population council earlier version article presented us national academies sciences workshop recent trends fertility subsaharan africa june 1415 2015 washington dc 1 discussion alternative ways measure transition onset provided chapter gerland biddlecom kantorova volume 2 last transition onset occurred mali 2012 included analyses determinants onset extrapolating trends 2010 socioeconomic indicators available 2010 niger country without onset 2014 3 average year onset 1976 asia north africa 1972 latin america 4 regression tfr repeated years 2000 1990 africa effect positive statistically significant smaller 088 births per woman 2000 060 births per woman 1990 5 moreover reported desired family size part rationalization achieved fertility references bongaarts john 2006 causes stalling fertility transitions studies family planning 371 1 16 bongaarts john 2008 fertility transitions developing countries progress stagnation studies family planning 392 105 110 bongaarts john 2011 family planning programs affect high desired family size subsaharan africa international perspectives sexual reproductive health 374 209 216 bongaarts john john casterline 2013 fertility transition subsaharan africa different population development review 38 suppl 153 168 bongaarts john john cleland john townsend jane bertrand monica das gupta 2012 family planning programs 21st century rationale design new york population council bongaarts john susan cotts watkins 1996 social interactions contemporary fertility transitions population development review 224 639 682 bryant john 2007 theories fertility decline evidence development indicators population development review 331 101 127 caldwell john c pat caldwell 1987 cultural context high fertility subsaharan africa population development review 133 409 437 caldwell john c pat caldwell 1988 asian family planning program model suited africa studies family planning 191 19 28 caldwell john c orubuloye pat caldwell 1992 fertility decline africa new type transition population development review 18 2 211 242 casterline john b 2001a diffusion processes fertility transition intr