Caroline X. Gao|Jonathan Broder|Samuel L. Brilleman|Timothy Colin Heath Campbell|Emily Berger|Jillian Ikin|Catherine L. Smith|Rory Wolfe|Fay Johnston|Yuming Guo|Matthew Carroll
Evaluating the impact of Hazelwood mine fire event on students’ educational development with Bayesian interrupted time-series hierarchical meta-regression
Orygen|University of Melbourne|Monash University|Monash University|Monash University|Monash Health|Monash University|Monash University|Monash University|Monash University|Monash University|University of Tasmania|Monash University|Monash Health|Monash University
environmental disasters wildfires floods droughts introduce significant interruptions trauma impacted communities children young people disproportionately affected additional educational disruptions however evaluating impact disasters challenging due difficulties establishing studies recruitment postdisasterswe aimed 1 develop bayesian model using aggregated schoollevel data evaluate impact environmental disasters academic achievement 2 evaluate impact 2014 hazelwood mine fire sixweek fire event australiabayesian hierarchical metaregression developed evaluate impact mine fire using easily accessible aggregated schoollevel data standardised national assessment programliteracy numeracy naplan test naplan results school characteristics 20082018 69 primarysecondary schools different levels mine firerelated smoke exposure used estimate impact event using interrupted time series design model estimated immediate effects postinterruption trend differences full bayesian statistical inferencemajor academic interruptions across naplan domains evident high exposure schools year postmine fire greatest interruption writing 1109 95ci 3161893 lowest interruption reading 834 95ci 1071551 interruption comparable four fivemonth delay educational attainment fully recovered several yearsconsiderable academic delays found result mine fire highlighting need provide educational communitybased supports response future events importantly work provides statistical method using readily available aggregated data assess educational impacts response environmental disasters