Simon Allen|Andreas Linsbauer|Surjeet Singh Randhawa|Christian Huggel|Pushpendra Rana|Aparna Kumari
Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats
University of Zurich|University of Zurich|Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment|University of Zurich|Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment|Kerala State Council for Science, Technology and Environment
glacial lake outburst floods glofs serious potentially increasing threat livelihoods infrastructure highmountain regions world integrate modelling approaches capture current future potential glof triggering quantification affected downstream areas assessment underlying societal vulnerability climaterelated disasters implement firstorder assessment glof risk across himalayan state himachal pradesh hp northern india assessment thereby considers current glacial lakes modelled future lakes expected form glaciers retreat current hazard vulnerability exposure indices combined reveal several risk hotspots illustrating significant glof risk may instances occur far downstream glaciated headwaters threats originate particular transnational glofs originating upper satluj river basin china threat downstream areas eastern hp future deglaciated scenario significant increase glof hazard levels projected across administrative units lakes expand form closer towards steep headwalls impacts falling ice rock may trigger outburst events example central area kullu 7fold increase probability glof triggering 3fold increase downstream area affected potential glof paths anticipated leading overall increase assigned glof hazard level high high instances strengthening resilience capacities reduce current glof risk provide important first step towards adapting future challenges