Lei Yuan, Pei Liu, Zhe Zhao, Zhenbang Wei, Lijuan Liu, Jinhai Sun
Cross-sectional survey on cigarette smoking in Chinese high-income areas
BMJ open
workforce analysis conducted predict whether projected future supply pediatric anesthesiologists balanced requirements inpatient pediatric population specific aims analysis 1 project number pediatric anesthesiologists future workforce 2 project pediatric anesthesiologisttopediatric population ratios 017 years 3 project mean number inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist 4 evaluate effect alternative projections individual variables model projections 2035 future number pediatric anesthesiologists determined current supply additions workforce departures workforce previously compiled database us pediatric anesthesiologists base year 2015 historical linear growth rate pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions determined using accreditation council graduate medical education data resource books 2002 2016 future number pediatric anesthesiologists workforce projected given growth pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions historical linear growth rate modeling 75 graduating fellows remain pediatric anesthesiology workforce anesthesiologists retire current mean retirement age 64 years old baseline model projections accompanied age genderadjusted anesthesiologist supply sensitivity analyses potential variations fellowship position growth retirement pediatric population inpatient surgery market share evaluate effect model variable baseline model projected ratio pediatric anesthesiologists pediatric population determined using 2012 us census pediatric population projections projected number inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist determined using kids inpatient database historical data project future number inpatient procedures including operating room procedures 2015 54 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100000 pediatric population mean standard deviation sd 262 8 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist historical trends continue estimated 74 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100000 pediatric population mean sd 193 6 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist 2035 pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions plateau 2015 levels estimated 57 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100000 pediatric population mean sd 248 7 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist 2035 historical trends continue growth pediatric anesthesiologist supply may exceed growth pediatric population inpatient procedures 20year period 2015 2035