Wändi Bruine de Bruin|Charles F. Manski|Giorgio Topa|Wilbert van der Klaauw
Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
Decision Sciences (United States)|Carnegie Mellon University|Northwestern University|Federal Reserve Bank of New York|Federal Reserve Bank of New York
abstract introduce surveybased measure uncertainty future inflation asking consumers density forecasts across inflation outcomes consumers willing able express uncertainty showing high response rates response patterns reliably related qualitative measures uncertainty heterogeneity expressed uncertainty associated demographic characteristics financial literacy measures central tendency derived density forecasts strongly correlated point forecasts furthermore expressed uncertainty positively related point forecast levels larger revisions point forecasts time copyright 2011 john wiley amp sons ltd