Rosemarie McMahon|Michael Stauffacher|Reto Knutti
The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph
ETH Zurich|ETH Zurich|ETH Zurich
reports published intergovernmental panel climate change ipcc comprehensive assessments scientific knowledge uncertainties surrounding climate projections combine wellformed language supporting graphical evidence objective inform policymakers one discussed widely distributed visual reports graph showing global surface temperature evolution 21st century simulated climate models various emission scenarios part summary policymakers spm working group contribution fourth assessment report ar4 displays two types uncertainties namely socioeconomic scenarios response uncertainty due imperfect knowledge models 43 indepth interviews graph caption empirically tested sample people analogous spm target audience found novice readers unable identify two different types uncertainties graph without substantial guidance instead saw great deal uncertainty falsely attributed climate models ignored scenario uncertainties findings demonstrate choice display directly impact readers perception scientific message failure distinguish two types uncertainties could lead overestimate response uncertainties underestimation socioeconomic choices test assumption identify difficulties nontechnical audiences graph could inevitably impede value decision support tool