Hugo Carrão|Gustavo Naumann|Paulo Barbosa
Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
Joint Research Centre|Joint Research Centre|Joint Research Centre
global map drought risk elaborated subnational administrative level motivation study observation little research concerted efforts made global level provide consistent equitable drought risk management framework multiple regions population groups economic sectors drought risk assessed period 20002014 based product three independent determinants hazard exposure vulnerability drought hazard derived nonparametric analysis historical precipitation deficits 05 drought exposure based nonparametric aggregation gridded indicators population livestock densities crop cover water stress drought vulnerability computed arithmetic composite high level factors social economic infrastructural indicators collected national subnational levels performance evaluation proposed models underlines statistical robustness emphasizes empirical resemblance geographic patterns potential drought impacts previous results presented literature findings support idea drought risk driven exponential growth regional exposure hazard vulnerability exhibit weaker relationship geographic distribution risk values drought risk lower remote regions tundras tropical forests higher populated areas regions extensively exploited crop production livestock farming southcentral asia southeast south america central europe southeast united states climate change projections foresee increase drought frequency intensity regions aggravated risk global food security potential civil conflict medium longterm since agricultural regions show high infrastructural vulnerability drought regional adaptation climate change may begin implementing fostering widespread use irrigation rainwater harvesting systems context reduction drought risk may also benefit diversifying regional economies different sectors activity reducing dependence gdp agriculture