Odette Wegwarth|Wolfgang Gaissmaier|Laura Martignon
Deceiving Numbers
Max Planck Institute for Human Development|Max Planck Institute for Human Development|Max Planck Institute for Human Development
increased 5y survival screened patients often inferred mean fewer patients die cancer however due several biases 5y survival rate misleading metric evaluating screenings effectiveness physicians aware issues informed screening counseling cannot take placetwo questionnaire versions group time presented 4 conditions 5y survival 5y 5y survival annual diseasespecific mortality 5ym annual diseasespecific mortality 5y survival annual diseasespecific mortality incidence 5ymi questionnaire version time presented data comparison 2 time points version group comparison screened unscreened group data based statistics cancer site prostate outcome variables recommendation screening reasoning behind recommendation judgment screenings effectiveness judged effective numerical estimate many fewer people 1000 would die screened regularly randomized allocation 65 german physicians internal medicine subspecialities completed either 2 questionnaire versionsacross versions 66 physicians recommended screening presented 5y 8 physicians made recommendation presented 5ym 31 5ymi 55 also 5y made considerably physicians 78 judge screening effective condition 5ym 31 5 5ymi 49 led highest overestimations benefita large number physicians erroneously based screening recommendation judgment screenings effectiveness 5y survival rate results show reporting diseasespecificmortality rates offer simple solution physicians confusion real effect screening