Elisabeth Stephens|Tamsin Edwards|David Demeritt
Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction
University of Bristol|University of Bristol|King's College London
abstract climate model ensembles widely heralded potential quantify uncertainties generate probabilistic climate projections however technical improvements modeling science little deliver ultimate promise improving climate policymaking adaptation unless insights generate effectively communicated decision makers communicative challenges unique climate ensembles others common hydrometeorological modeling generally tensions arising imperatives saliency robustness richness risk communication paper reviews emerging approaches visualizing communicating climate ensembles compares established thoroughly evaluated communication methods used numerical weather prediction domains daytoday weather forecasting particular probabilities precipitation hurricane flood warning seasonal forecasting comparative analysis informs recommendations best practice climate modelers well prompting thoughts key research challenges improve future communication climate change uncertainties wires clim change 2012 doi 101002wcc187 article categorized climate models modeling gt knowledge generation models perceptions behavior communication climate change gt communication