Florian Kutzner|Daniel Read|Neil Stewart|Gordon D. Brown
Choosing the Devil You Don’t Know: Evidence for Limited Sensitivity to Sample Size–Based Uncertainty When It Offers an Advantage
University of Warwick|Heidelberg University|University of Warwick|University of Warwick|University of Warwick
many decision makers seek optimize choices uncertain options strategies employees products performance targets must met attending observed past performance enough optimize choicesoption uncertainty must also considered example stretch targets exceed observed performance uncertain options often better bets significant determinant option uncertainty sample size given option smaller sample information greater uncertainty two studies choices made pairs uncertain options goal exceeding specified performance target information options differed size sample drawn sample size observed performance samples proportion successes hits sample found people sensitive sample sizebased uncertainty differences observed performance negligible conclude presence performance targets people largely fail capitalize value advantages small samples presence stretch targets paper accepted yuval rottenstreich judgment decision making