Fabio Riva|Helene Ahlborg|Elias Hartvigsson|Shonali Pachauri|Emanuela Colombo
Electricity access and rural development: Review of complex socio-economic dynamics and causal diagrams for more appropriate energy modelling
Politecnico di Milano|Chalmers University of Technology|University of Gothenburg|Chalmers University of Technology|International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis|Politecnico di Milano
causal relationships electrification development poor rural communities complex contextual existing literature focuses mainly impact rural electrification electricity use local socioeconomic development reverse feedbacks various social economic changes electricity demand supply fully characterized electricity access impact assessments assume linear oneway effects linear growth electricity demand however projections rarely match reality creating challenges rural utilities modelling perspective lack attention dynamic complexities electricitydevelopment nexus prevents appropriate modelling electricity demand time hence informed planning sizing power plants goal improve modelling electricitydevelopment nexus undertake comprehensive review extensive analysis peerreviewed literature electricity access impact rural socioeconomic development vice versa characterize describe nexus electricity access development graphical causal diagrams allow us capture visualise discuss complexity feedback loops based suggest guidelines developing appropriate models able include simulate complexities analysis confirms electricity use interconnected complex causal relations multiple dimensions socioeconomic development viz income generating activities market production revenues household economy local health population education habits social networks causal diagrams seen first step conceptualization phase model building aims describing understanding structure system presence multiple uncertain parameters complex diffusion mechanisms describe complex system analysis suggests systemsdynamic simulations allow modelling complex dynamic relations well dealing high uncertainties stake especially coupled stochastic approaches