Todd Crane|Carla Roncoli|Joel O. Paz|Norman Breuer|Kenneth Broad|K. T. Ingram|Gerrit Hoogenboom
Forecast Skill and Farmers’ Skills: Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management in the Southeastern United States
University of Georgia|University of Georgia|University of Georgia|University of Miami|University of Miami|University of Florida|University of Georgia
abstract last 10 yr research seasonal climate forecasts agricultural risk management tool pursued three directions modeling potential impacts responses identifying opportunities constraints analyzing risk communication aspects approaches tend frame seasonal climate forecasts discrete product direct linear effects contrast authors propose agricultural management performative process constituted combination planning experimentation improvisation drawing mix technical expertise situated knowledge cumulative experience intuitive skill farmers navigate myriad risks pursuit livelihood goals economic opportunities study draws ethnographic interviews conducted 38 family farmers southern georgia examining livelihood goals social values strategies managing risk interactions weather climate information specifically responses seasonal climate forecasts findings highlight social nature information processing risk management indicating material conditions valuebased attitudes bear upon ways farmers may integrate climate predictions agricultural management practices insights translate specific recommendations enhance salience credibility legitimacy seasonal climate forecasts among farmers promote incorporation information skillful performance face climate uncertainty