Katsushi S. Imai|Raghav Gaiha|Woojin Kang
Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam
University of Manchester|University of Delhi|University of Manchester
abstract drawing upon vietnam household living standards survey vhlss data cover whole vietnam 2002 2004 ex ante measures vulnerability constructed compared static indicators poverty ie headcount ratio particular year detailed analyses panel data show general vulnerability 2002 translates poverty 2004 ii vulnerability poor tends perpetuate poverty iii sections nonpoor vulnerable slip poverty durable reduction poverty conditional accurate identification vulnerable ii sources vulnerability iii design social safety nets would enable vulnerable reduce risks cope better rapid integration markets larger global economy notes 1 however noted considerable regional diversity collectivization example south never collectivized form see eg kees van donge citation2003 2 poverty rates used based international poverty line devised vietnamese gso reflect food expenditure intake 2100 calories day corresponding nonfood expenditure basket food nonfood items determined consumption patterns third quintile households terms per capita expenditure poverty lines vnd 116 million per person per year 1993 vnd 179 million 1998 vnd 192 million 2002 study use international poverty line adjust 2004 vnd 216 million based annual consumer price index cpi used poverty lines developed ministry labour invalids social affairs molisa reflect regional disparity rice consumption 3 details furnished request 4 note group averages taken imply heterogeneity among 5 see pincus sender citation2008 detailed explanation sampling methods problems vlss vhlss argue migrant workers without permanent registration shown vulnerably careful examination missing households employment survey mhes excluded vlss vhlss underestimation vulnerability analysis cannot ruled 6 see excellent summary hoddinott quisumbing citation2003a b methodological issues measuring vulnerability contrast ex ante vep measure ex post measures vulnerability expected low utility veu proposed ligon schechter citation2003 vulnerability uninsured exposure risk ver used townsend citation1994 use vep measure veu ver constructed long panel data set household response shocks identified 7 vep widely applied studies tesliuc lindert citation2002 sarris karfakis citation2006 zhang wan citation2006 ding et al citation2007 gaiha imai citation2009 8 one limitations definition vulnerability sensitive choice z defined poverty line international poverty line defined gso checked sensitivity results applying different levels poverty line ie 120 80 found general pattern results similar details results provided request 9 justification consumption welfare indicator see ravallion van de walle 2008 10 used whitehuber sandwich estimator overcome heteroscedasticity sample 11 see appendix definitions variables descriptive statistics 12 see chaudhuri et al citation2002 chaudhuri citation2003 hoddinott quisumbing citation2003b technical details 13 see gaiha et al citation2007 extension model 14 following barrientos citation2006 use chronic poverty poverty traps interchangeably 15 exposition model found gaiha et al citation2007 16 gender inequality vietnam recent studies show femaleheaded households lower incidence poverty eg asia development bank adb citation2005 may simply reflect concentration urban areas hand studies found greater income inequality men women recent years arising disadvantages latter labour market adb citation2005 kabeer et al citation2006 lee citation2006 17 study uses total land general proxy household wealth regression results rural vietnam using disaggregated data land holding shown furnished request show aquacultural land significantly associated higher consumption followed agricultural land forest land presumably reflects increasing role fishery vietnamese economy emerged one fastest growing sectors transition period according international monetary fund imf citation2006 average growth rates agriculture forestry fishery 2001 2004 33 065 835 respectively 18 full set results furnished request 19 would worthwhile view differences broader perspective allows cultural diversity responses shocks