Ali Kabir, Davood Rasouli, Kamran Soltani Arabshahi
Comparing the Familiarity of the Basic and Clinical Faculty Members of Iran University of Medical Sciences with the Principles of Digital Professionalism
Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran
understanding epidemiological dynamics confined mathematical epidemiologists applied mathematicians disseminated nonmathematical community health care professionals applied biologists simpletouse simulation applications used numerus model builder ramp runtime alterable model platform technology construct deterministic stochastic versions compartmental sir susceptible infectious recovered immunity models simpletouse freely available epidemic simulation application programs take reader simulations used demonstrate following concepts 1 disease prevalence curves unmitigated outbreaks single peak result epidemics burn population become extinguished proportion susceptible population drops critical level 2 immunity recovered individuals wanes sufficiently fast disease persists indefinitely endemic state possible dampening oscillations following initial outbreak phase 3 steepness initial peak prevalence curve influenced basic reproductive value r0 must exceed 1 epidemic occur 4 probability single infectious individual closed population ie migration gives rise epidemic increases value r01 5 behavior adaptively decreases contact rate among individuals increasing prevalence major effects prevalence curve including dramatic flattening prevalence curve along generation multiple prevalence peaks 6 impacts treatment complicated model effect multiple processes including transmission recovery mortality 7 impacts vaccination policies constrained fixed number vaccination regimens rate timing delivery crucially important maximizing ability vaccination programs reduce mortality presentation makes transparent key assumptions underlying sir epidemic models ramp simulators meant augment rather replace classroom material teaching epidemiological dynamics sufficiently versatile used students address range research questions term papers even dissertations