Yi-Chen Chiang, Tony Szu-Hsien Lee, Lee-Lan Yen, Chi-Chen Wu, Dai-Chan Lin, Baai-Shyun Hurng, Hsing-Yi Chang
Influence of stressors and possible pathways of onset of seventh graders' suicidal ideation in urban and rural areas in Taiwan
BMC public health
forecasting events multiple types uncertainty often inherently present modeling process various uncertainty typologies exist type uncertainty different implications scientist might want convey work focus one type distinction direct quantitative uncertainty indirect qualitative uncertainty direct quantitative uncertainty describes uncertainty facts numbers hypotheses communicated absolute quantitative forms probability distributions confidence intervals indirect qualitative uncertainty describes quality knowledge concerning effectively facts numbers hypotheses represent reality evidence confidence scales proposed intergovernmental panel climate change large body research demonstrates experts novices difficulty reasoning quantitative uncertainty visualizations uncertainty help traditionally challenging concepts however question people may reason multiple types uncertainty associated forecast remains largely unexplored series studies seek understand individuals integrate indirect uncertainty good model operationalized qualitative expression forecaster confidence quantified uncertainty prediction operationalized quantile dotplot visualization predicted distribution first study results suggest participants utilize direct quantitative uncertainty indirect qualitative uncertainty conveyed quantile dotplots forecaster confidence manipulations forecasters less sure prediction participants made conservative judgments second study varied amount quantified uncertainty form sd visualized distributions examine participants decisions changed different combinations quantified uncertainty variance qualitative uncertainty low medium high forecaster confidence second study results suggest participants updated judgments direction predicted qualitative confidence information eg becoming conservative forecaster confidence low quantitative uncertainty eg becoming conservative variance increased based findings experiments recommend forecasters present qualitative expressions model confidence whenever possible alongside quantified uncertainty