Adeline Delavande|H Köhler
Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research|RAND Corporation|Universidade Nova de Lisboa|University of Pennsylvania
paper present newly developed interactive elicitation methodology collecting probabilistic expectations developing country context low levels literacy numeracy evaluate feasibility success method wide range outcomes rural malawiwe find respondents answers subjective expectations take account basic properties probabilities vary meaningfully observable characteristics past experiencefrom substantive point view elicited expectations indicate individuals generally aware differential risksfor example individuals lower incomes less land rightly feel greater risk financial distress people higher socioeconomic status ses people divorced widowed rightly feel greater risk infected hiv currently married individualsmeanwhile many expectationsincluding probability currently infected hivare wellcalibrated compared actual probabilities mortality expectations substantially overestimated compared life table estimatesthis overestimation may lead individuals underestimate benefits adopting hiv riskreduction strategiesthe skewed distribution expectations condom use also suggests small group innovators forerunners adoption condoms within marriage hiv prevention