Ann K. Blanc|Shea Rutstein
The Demographic Transition in Southern Africa: Yet Another Look at the Evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe
findings thomas muvandi overstatement fertility decline botswana zimbabwe questionable appropriate methodology employed reexamination evidence fertility decline botswana zimbabwe shows educational distributions 1984 1988 differ statistically significantly mean number children ever born standardizing educational distribution survey period fertility rates better sense assessing period fertility declines adjustment educational distributions would appreciably affect magnitude fertility rate decline topics contention two studies questionnaire wording changes educational system time school starting age requirements completion primary secondary school real increases education smaller shifts large group women primary education data processing rules sample similarity thomas muvandis comparisons children ever born 34 36 comparisons within education groups cohort women 1984 1988 within two standard errors supplies overwhelming evidence numbers children ever born cohort women educational groups fact thomas muvandi comparisons women aged 2534 3544 years standardized educational distribution differences affected sample selection bias differential reporting education sample selection bias real changes education cohorts results comparing birth cohort indicate little difference reports 195059 birth cohorts two surveys comparison total fertility rates standardized education show contraceptive prevalence survey cps demographic health surveys dhs data 13 child 155 children less cps data zimbabwe botswana cps declines 12 dhs 7 interpreted evidence limited impact selectivity bias 1994 dhs provide ample evidence botswanas zimbabwes unequivocal fertility decline