Sadeeb Simon Ottenburger, Ulrich Ufer
Smart cities at risk: Systemic risk drivers in the blind spot of long-term governance
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
paper explore rules determine intuitive predictions judgments confidence contrast rules normative principles statistical prediction two classes prediction discussed category prediction numerical prediction categorical case prediction given nominal form example winner election diagnosis patient persons future occupation numerical case prediction given numerical form example future value particular stock students grade point average making predictions judgments uncertainty people appear follow calculus chance statistical theory prediction instead rely limited number heuristics sometimes yield reasonable judgments sometimes lead severe systematic errors kahneman tversky 1972b 3 tversky kahneman 1971 2 1973 11 present paper concerned role one heuristics representativeness intuitive predictions given specific evidence eg personality sketch outcomes consideration eg occupations levels achievement ordered degree representative evidence thesis paper people predict representativeness select order outcomes degree outcomes represent essential features evidence