Younes Mohammadi|Mahboubeh Parsaeian|Parinaz Mehdipour|Ardeshir Khosravi|Bagher Larijani|Ali Sheidaei|Anita Mansouri|Amir Kasaeian|Kamran Yazdani|Maziar Moradi?Lakeh|Elahe Kazemi|Saeide Aghamohamadi|Nazila Rezaei|Maryam Chegini|Rosa Haghshenas|Hamidreza Jamshidi|Farnaz Delavari|Mohsen Asadi?Lari|Farshad Farzadfar
Measuring Iran's success in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4: a systematic analysis of under-5 mortality at national and subnational levels from 1990 to 2015
Hamedan University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Ministry of Health and Medical Education|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Iran University of Medical Sciences|Ministry of Health and Medical Education|Ministry of Health and Medical Education|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences|Iran University of Medical Sciences|Tehran University of Medical Sciences
child mortality one key millennium development goals mdg 4to reduce child mortality twothirds 1990 2015 included sustainable development goals sdg 3 target 2to reduce child mortality fewer 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths countries 2030 key indicator health system every country study aimed estimate level trend child mortality 1990 2015 iran assess progress country provinces toward goalswe used three different data sources three censuses demographic health survey dhs 5year data death registration system used summary birth history data four data sources three censuses dhs used maternal age cohort maternal age period methods estimate trends child mortality rates combining estimates two indirect methods using loess regression also used complete birth history method estimate child mortality rate directly dhs data finally synthesise different trends single trend calculate uncertainty intervals ui used gaussian process regressionunder5 mortality rates deaths per 1000 livebirths national level iran 1990 2000 2010 2015 636 95 ui 631640 388 385392 249 243254 194 186202 respectively 1990 2015 median annual reduction total overall reduction rates 49 70 respectively provincial level difference highest lowest child mortality rates 1990 2000 2015 656 404 381 per 1000 livebirths respectively based mdg 4 goal five provinces decreased child mortality twothirds 2015 furthermore six provinces reached sdg 3 target 2iran provinces achieved mdg 4 sdg 3 target 2 goals 2015 however subnational level provinces substantial inequity local policy makers use effective strategies accelerate reduction child mortality provinces 2030 possible recommendations strategies include enhancing level education health literacy among women tackling sex discrimination improving incomes familiesiran ministry health education