Shannon M Monnat, Monica A F Lounsbery, Thomas L McKenzie, Raeven Faye Chandler
Associations between demographic characteristics and physical activity practices in Nevada schools
Preventive medicine
several models used predict outbreaks covid19 pandemic limited success developed simple mathematical model accurately predict future epidemic waves used data ministry health labour welfare japan newly confirmed covid19 cases covid19 case data summarized weekly data epidemic waves visualized identified periodicity covid19 prefecture japan confirmed using timeseries analysis autocorrelation coefficient used investigate longerterm pattern covid19 cases outcomes using autocorrelation coefficient visualized via correlogram capture periodicity data algorithm simple prediction model seventh covid19 wave japan comprised three steps step 1 machine learning techniques used depict regression lines epidemic wave denoting rising trend line step 2 exponential function good fit identified data rising straight lines sixth wave timing rise seventh wave speed spread calculated step 3 logistic function created using values calculated step 2 coefficients predict seventh wave accuracy model predicting seventh wave confirmed using data sixth wave march 31 2023 correlation coefficient value approximately 05 indicating significant periodicity spread covid19 japan repeated cycle approximately 140 days although slight lag starting peak times predicted seventh wave compared actual epidemic developed prediction model fairly high degree accuracy newly developed prediction model based rising trend line could predict covid19 outbreaks months advance high accuracy findings present study warrant investigation regarding application emerging infectious diseases covid19 epidemic wave high periodicity