Laura Martignon|Wolfgang Gaissmaier|Elke Kurz?Milcke|Lisa M. Schwartz|Steven Woloshin
Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics
Max Planck Institute for Human Development|Max Planck Institute for Human Development|Max Planck Institute for Human Development|Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice|Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice
many doctors patients journalists politicians alike understand health statistics mean draw wrong conclusions without noticing collective statistical illiteracy refers widespread inability understand meaning numbers instance many citizens unaware higher survival rates cancer screening imply longer life statement mammography screening reduces risk dying breast cancer 25 fact means 1 less woman 1000 die disease provide evidence statistical illiteracy common patients journalists physicians b created nontransparent framing information sometimes unintentional result lack understanding also result intentional efforts manipulate persuade people c serious consequences health causes statistical illiteracy attributed cognitive biases alone emotional nature doctorpatient relationship conflicts interest healthcare system classic doctorpatient relation based physicians paternalism patients trust authority make statistical literacy seem unnecessary traditional combination determinism physicians seek causes chances illusion certainty patients seek certainty none show information pamphlets web sites leaflets distributed doctors pharmaceutical industry even medical journals often report evidence nontransparent forms suggest big benefits featured interventions small harms without understanding numbers involved public susceptible political commercial manipulation anxieties hopes undermines goals informed consent shared decision making done discuss importance teaching statistical thinking transparent representations primary secondary education well medical school yet requires familiarizing children early concept probability teaching statistical literacy art solving realworld problems rather applying formulas toy problems coins dice major precondition statistical literacy transparent risk communication recommend using frequency statements instead singleevent probabilities absolute risks instead relative risks mortality rates instead survival rates natural frequencies instead conditional probabilities psychological research transparent visual numerical forms risk communication well training physicians use called statistical literacy necessary precondition educated citizenship technological democracy understanding risks asking critical questions also shape emotional climate society hopes anxieties longer easily manipulated outside citizens develop betterinformed relaxed attitude toward health