Paul Craig|Ashok Gadgil|Jonathan Koomey
What Can History Teach Us? A Retrospective Examination of Long-Term Energy Forecasts for the United States
Sierra Club|Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory|Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory|Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
abstract paper explores longterm energy forecasts created useful focuses forecasts energy use united states year 2000 considers longterm predictions ie covering two decades motivation current interest global warming forecasts run beyond century basic observation forecasters 19501980 period underestimated importance unmodeled surprises key example failure foresee ability united states economy respond oil embargos 1970s increasing efficiency forecasts period systematically high forecasters systematically underestimated uncertainties longterm energy forecasts must make assumptions technologies social systems successful influence people act showing consequences acting useful provide insights energy planners influence perceptions public energy policy community capture current understanding underlying physical economic principles highlight key emerging social economic trends true best see dimly future acknowledge duty posterity feel impelled use foresight upon facts guiding principles possess though many data present wanting doubtful conclusions may rendered far probable lead inquiries 1 p 4