Sara Ahmadi?Abhari|Maria Guzman-Castillo|Piotr Bandosz|Martin J. Shipley|Graciela Muniz?Terrera|Archana Singh?Manoux|Mika Kivimäki|Andrew Steptoe|Simon Capewell|Martín O’Flaherty|Eric J. Brunner
Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study
University College London|University of Liverpool|Gda?sk Medical University|University of Liverpool|University College London|University of Edinburgh|Hôpital Paul-Brousse|Inserm|University College London|University of Helsinki|University College London|University College London|University of Liverpool|University of Liverpool|University College London
bobjectivebnbspto forecast dementia prevalence dynamic modelling approach integrates calendar trends dementia incidence mortality cardiovascular disease bdesignbnbspmodelling study bsettingbnbspgeneral adult population england wales bparticipantsbnbspthe english longitudinal study ageing elsa representative panel study six waves data across 200213 men women aged 50 years selected randomly cohabiting partners recruited first wave elsa 200203 11392 adults participated response rate 67 maintain representativeness refreshment participants recruited study subsequent waves total analytical sample constituted 17 906 people constant objective criteria based cognitive functional impairment used ascertain dementia cases wave bmain outcome measuresbnbspto estimate calendar trends dementia incidence correcting bias due loss followup study participants joint model longitudinal timetoevent data fitted elsa data forecast future dementia prevalence probabilistic markov model impactbam impactbetter ageing model developed impactbam models transitions population aged 35 years states cardiovascular disease cognitive functional impairment dementia death enables prediction dementia prevalence accounting growing pool susceptible people result increased life expectancy competing effects due changes mortality incidence cardiovascular disease bresultsbnbspin elsa dementia incidence estimated 143 per 1000 person years men 1701000 person years women aged 50 2010 dementia incidence declined relative rate 27 95 confidence interval 24 29 year 200213 using impactbam estimated approximately 767 000 95 uncertainty interval 735 000 797 000 people dementia england wales 2016 despite decrease incidence age specific prevalence number people dementia projected increase 872 000 1 092 000 1 205 000 2020 2030 2040 respectively sensitivity analysis without incidence decline gave much larger projected growth 19 million people dementia 2040 bconclusionsbnbspage specific dementia incidence declining number people dementia england wales likely increase 57 2016 2040 increase mainly driven improved life expectancy