Christopher Roth|Johannes Wohlfart
How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?
University of Warwick|University of Warwick
using representative online panel united states examine individuals macroeconomic expectations causally affect personal economic prospects behavior exogenously vary respondents expectations provide different professional forecasts likelihood recession respondents update macroeconomic outlook response forecasts extrapolate expectations personal economic circumstances adjust consumption plans stock purchases extrapolation expectations personal unemployment driven individuals higher exposure macroeconomic risk consistent macroeconomic models imperfect information people inattentive understand economy works