Syed Sayeem Uddin Ahmed|Annette Kjær Ersbøll|Paritosh Kumar Biswas|Jens Peter Christensen|Abu Sayeed Md. Abdul Hannan|Nils Toft
Ecological Determinants of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Outbreaks in Bangladesh
Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University|University of Copenhagen|University of Southern Denmark|Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University|University of Copenhagen|Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute|University of Copenhagen
agroecology poultry husbandry south asian southeast asian countries share common features however noticeable differences hence ecological determinants associated risk highly pathogenic avian influenza hpaih5n1 outbreaks expected differ bangladesh eg thailand vietnam primary aim current study establish ecological determinants associated risk hpaih5n1 outbreaks subdistrict level bangladesh secondary aim explore performance two different statistical modeling approaches unmeasured spatially correlated variationan ecological study subdistrict level bangladesh performed 138 subdistricts hpaih5n1 outbreaks 20072008 326 subdistricts outbreaks association ecological determinants hpaih5n1 outbreaks examined using generalized linear mixed model spatial clustering ecological data modeled using 1 intrinsic conditional autoregressive icar model subdistrict level considering first order neighbors 2 multilevel ml model subdistricts nested within districts ecological determinants significantly associated risk hpaih5n1 outbreaks subdistrict level migratory birds staging areas river network household density literacy rate poultry density live bird markets highway network predictive risk maps derived based resulting models resulting models indicate ml model absorbed covariate effect icar model neighbor structure implied two different modelsthe study identified new set ecological determinants related river networks migratory birds staging areas literacy rate addition already known risk factors clarified generalized concept free grazing duck duckrice cultivation interacted ecology significant determinants bangladesh findings refine current understanding hpaih5n1 epidemiology bangladesh