Carola Binder
Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations
Haverford College
literature cognition communication documents people use round numbers convey uncertainty paper introduces method quantifying uncertainty associated round responses preexisting survey data construct microlevel time series measures inflation uncertainty since 1978 inflation uncertainty countercyclical correlated inflation disagreement volatility economic policy uncertainty index inflation uncertainty lowest among highincome consumers college graduates males stock market investors uncertain consumers reluctant spend durables cars homes round responses common many surveys suggesting numerous applications method