Håvard Hegre|Joakim Karlsen|Håvard Mokleiv Nygård|Håvard Strand|Henrik Urdal
Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050<sup>1</sup>
University of Oslo|Østfold University College|University of Oslo|Centre for Advanced Study|Centre for Advanced Study
article predicts changes global regional incidences armed conflict 20102050 period predictions based dynamic multinomial logit model estimation 19702009 crosssectional data set changes armed conflict minor conflict major conflict core exogenous predictors population size infant mortality rates demographic composition education levels oil dependence ethnic cleavages neighborhood characteristics predictions obtained simulating behavior conflict variable implied estimates model use projections 20112050 period predictors un world population prospects international institute applied systems analysis treat conflicts recent conflict history neighboring conflicts endogenous variables outofsample validation predictions 20072009 based estimates 19702000 period indicates model predicts well area receiver operator curve 0937 using p 30 threshold positive prediction true positive rate 79 years future 079 false positive rate 0085 predict continued decline proportion worlds countries internal armed conflict 15 2009 7 2050 decline particularly strong western asia north africa region less clear africa south sahara remaining conflict countries increasingly concentrated east central southern africa east south asia