Veena Srinivasan|Sally Thompson|Karthik Madhyastha|Gopal Penny|K. Jeremiah|Sharachchandra Lélé
Why is the Arkavathy River drying? A multiple-hypothesis approach in a data-scarce region
Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment|University of California, Berkeley|Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment|University of California, Berkeley|Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment|Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment
abstract water planning decisions good ability explain historical trends make reasonable predictions future water availability predicting water availability challenge rapidly growing regions human modifications land waterscapes changing hydrologic system yet many regions world lack longterm hydrologic monitoring records needed understand past changes predict future trends investigated predictions change problem datascarce thippagondanahalli tg halli catchment arkavathy subbasin southern india inflows tg halli reservoir declined sharply since 1970s causes drying poorly understood resulting misdirected counterproductive management responses five plausible hypotheses could explain decline tested using data field surveys secondary sources 1 changes rainfall amount seasonality intensity 2 increases temperature 3 groundwater extraction 4 expansion eucalyptus plantations 5 fragmentation river channel results suggest groundwater pumping expansion eucalyptus plantations lesser extent channel fragmentation much likely caused decline surface flows tg halli catchment changing climate multiplehypothesis approach presents systematic way quantify relative contributions proximate anthropogenic climate drivers hydrological change approach makes meaningful contribution policy debate also helps prioritize design future research approach first step conducting useinspired sociohydrologic research watershed