Karen Clay|Joshua Lewis|Edson Severnini
What explains cross-city variation in mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic? Evidence from 438 U.S. cities
Carnegie Mellon University|Carnegie Mellon University
disparities crosscity pandemic severity 1918 influenza pandemic remain poorly understood paper uses newly assembled historical data annual mortality across 438 us cities explore determinants pandemic mortality assess role three broad factors prepandemic population health poverty ii air pollution iii timing onset proximity military bases using regression analysis find cities top tercile distribution prepandemic infant mortality 21 excess deaths per 10000 residents 1918 relative cities bottom tercile similarly cities top tercile distribution proportion illiterate residents 213 excess deaths per 10000 residents pandemic relative cities bottom tercile cities top tercile distribution coalfired electricity generating capacity important source urban air pollution 91 excess deaths per 10000 residents 1918 relative cities bottom tercile statistically significant relationship excess mortality city proximity world war bases timing onset counterfactual analysis three statistically significant factors accounted 50 percent crosscity variation excess mortality 1918