Álvaro Hernáez, Yunsung Lee, Christian M Page, Karoline H Skåra, Siri E Håberg, Per Magnus, Pål R Njølstad, Ole A Andreassen, Elizabeth C Corfield, Alexandra Havdahl, Abigail Fraser, Stephen Burgess, Deborah A Lawlor, Maria C Magnus
Impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular risk factors in relation to infertility: a Mendelian randomization analysis in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study
Human reproduction (Oxford, England)
cardiovascular disease cvd risk increased sle underestimated general population prediction algorithms aimed develop novel slespecific prediction tool slecrisk provide accurate estimate cvd risk sle studied patients brigham womens hospital sle cohort collected oneyear baseline data including presence traditional cvd factors slerelated features cohort enrollment tenyear followup first major adverse cardiovascular event mace myocardial infarction mi stroke cardiac death began day 1 following baseline period index date icd910 codes identified mace adjudicated boardcertified cardiologists least absolute shrinkage selection operator regression selected slerelated variables add american college cardiologyamerican heart association accaha pooled cohort risk equations 10year risk cox regression model model fit statistics performance sensitivity specificity positivenegative predictive value cstatistic predicting moderatehigh 10year risk 75 mace assessed compared accaha framingham risk score frs modified frs mfrs optimism adjustment internal validation performed using bootstrapping included 1243 patients 90 maces 46 mis 36 strokes 19 cardiac deaths 89465 personyears followup sle variables selected new prediction algorithm slecrisk sle activity remissionmild vs moderatesevere disease duration years creatinine mgdl antidsdna antirnp lupus anticoagulant antiro positivity low c4 sensitivity detecting moderatehighrisk 75 mace using slecrisk 074 95 ci 065 083 better sensitivity accaha model 038 95 ci 028 048 also identified 34fold moderatehighrisk patients accaha patients moderatehighrisk according slecrisk accaha likely young women severe sle traditional cvd risk factors model performance slecrisk frs mfrs similar novel slecrisk tool sensitive accaha predicting moderatehigh 10year risk mace may particularly useful predicting risk young females severe sle future external validation studies utilizing cohorts severe sle needed