Hiroki Nakata, Miki Akido, Kumi Naruse, Motoko Fujiwara
Relative Age Effect in Physical Fitness Among Elementary and Junior High School Students
Perceptual and motor skills
describe computational model two central aspects peoples probabilistic reasoning descriptive probability estimation inferential probability judgment model assumes peoples reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory subject random noise random noise regressive effect descriptive probability estimation moving probability estimates away normative probabilities toward center probability scale random noise antiregressive effect inferential judgement however regressive antiregressive effects explain various reliable systematic biases seen peoples descriptive probability estimation inferential probability judgment model predicts contrary effects tend cancel tasks involve descriptive estimation inferential judgement leading unbiased responses tasks test model applying one task described gallistel et al participants median responses task unbiased agreeing normative probability theory full range responses model captures pattern unbiased responses task simultaneously explaining systematic biases away normatively correct probabilities seen tasks