Luís Costa|Diego Rybski|Jürgen P. Kropp
A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research|Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research|Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
although developing countries called participate co2 emission reduction efforts avoid dangerous climate change implications proposed reduction schemes human development standards developing countries remain matter debate show existence positive timedependent correlation human development index hdi per capita co2 emissions fossil fuel combustion employing empirical relation extrapolating hdi using three population scenarios cumulative co2 emissions necessary developing countries achieve particular hdi thresholds assessed following development usual approach dau current demographic development trends maintained estimate 2050 around 85 worlds population live countries high hdi 08 particular 300 gt cumulative co2 emissions 2000 2050 estimated necessary development 104 developing countries year 2000 value represents 20 30 previously calculated co2 budgets limiting global warming 2 c constraints results incorporated co2 reduction framework involving four domains climate action individual countries framework reserves fair emission path developing countries proceed development indexing countrydependent reduction rates proportional hdi order preserve 2 c target particular development threshold reached example time step five years countries hdi 085 would need reduce per capita emissions approx 17 countries hdi 09 33 approach global cumulative emissions 2050 estimated range 850 1100 gt co2 values within uncertainty range emissions limit global temperatures 2 c