Kinley Wangdi|Archie C. A. Clements|Tai Du|Susana Vaz Nery
Spatial and temporal patterns of dengue infections in Timor-Leste, 2005–2013
Australian National University|Australian National University|Australian National University|Australian National University
dengue remains important public health problem timorleste several major epidemics occurring last 10 years aim study identify dengue clusters high geographical resolution determine association local environmental characteristics distribution transmission disease notifications dengue cases occurred january 2005 december 2013 obtained ministry health timorleste population suco thirdlevel administrative subdivision obtained population housing census 2010 spatial autocorrelation dengue incidence explored using morans statistic local indicators spatial association lisa getisord statistics multivariate zeroinflated poisson zip regression model developed conditional autoregressive car prior structure posterior parameters estimated using bayesian markov chain monte carlo mcmc simulation gibbs sampling analysis used data 3206 cases dengue incidence highly seasonal large peak january patients 14 years found 74 95 credible interval cri 7276 less likely infected 14 years females 12 95 cri 421 likely suffer dengue compared males dengue incidence increased 07 95 cri 0608 1 c increase mean temperature 47 95 cri 2959 1 mm increase precipitation significant residual spatial clustering accounting climate demographic variables dengue incidence highly seasonal spatially clustered positive associations temperature precipitation demographic factors factors explained observed spatial heterogeneity infection