Carlo Cafaro, Sean Alan Ali, Adom Giffin
Thermodynamic aspects of information transfer in complex dynamical systems
Physical review. E
introduction deciding cause underlying serially presented events patients delusions utilise fewer events controls showing jumpingtoconclusions bias widely hypothesised patients expect incur higher costs sample information hypothesis however unconfirmed methods hypothesis tested analysing patient control data using two models models provided explicit quantitative variables characterising decision making one model based calculating potential costs making decision compared measure certainty fixed threshold results differences paranoid participants controls found way previously hypothesised greater noise decision making relative effective motivation get task right rather greater perceived costs best accounted group differences paranoid participants also deviated ideal bayesian reasoning healthy controls conclusions jumpingtoconclusions bias unlikely due overestimation cost gathering information analytic approach used involving bayesian model estimate parameters characterising different participant populations well suited testing hypotheses regarding hidden variables underpinning observed behaviours