Anne Marthe van der Bles|Sander van der Linden|Alexandra L. J. Freeman|James Mitchell|Ana Beatriz Galvão|Lisa Zaval|David Spie?elhalter
Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science
University of Cambridge|University of Cambridge|University of Cambridge|University of Warwick|University of Warwick|Columbia University|University of Cambridge
uncertainty inherent part knowledge yet era contested expertise many shy away openly communicating uncertainty know fearful audiences reaction effect communication epistemic uncertainty empirical research widely scattered across many disciplines interdisciplinary review structures summarizes current practice research across domains combining statistical psychological perspective informs framework uncertainty communication identify three objects uncertaintyfacts numbers scienceand two levels uncertainty direct indirect examination current practices provides scale nine expressions direct uncertainty discuss attempts codify indirect uncertainty terms quality underlying evidence review limited literature effects communicating epistemic uncertainty cognition affect trust decisionmaking evidence communicating epistemic uncertainty necessarily affect audiences negatively impact vary individuals communication formats case studies economic statistics climate change illustrate framework action conclude advice guide communicators future researchers important far rather neglected field