Sophie Kemper, Marion de Vries, Esther de Weger, Marloes Bongers, Frank Kupper, Aura Timen
The public's considerations about implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage a novel COVID-19 epidemic
Heliyon
past two decades psychological science experienced unprecedented replicability crisis uncovered several issues among others use misuse statistical inference plays key role crisis indeed statistical inference often viewed isolated procedure limited analysis data already collected instead statistical reasoning necessary planning stage interpreting results research project based considerations build develop idea proposed gelman carlin 2014 termed prospective retrospective design analysis rather focusing statistical significance result classical control type type ii errors comprehensive design analysis involves reasoning considered plausible effect size furthermore introduces two relevant inferential risks exaggeration ratio type error ie predictable average overestimation effect emerges statistically significant sign error type error ie risk statistically significant effect estimated wrong direction another important aspect design analysis usefully carried planning phase study evaluation studies already conducted thus increasing researchers awareness phases research project illustrate benefits design analysis widest possible audience use familiar example psychology researcher interested analyzing differences two independent groups considering cohens effect size measure examine case plausible effect size formalized single value propose method uncertainty concerning magnitude effect formalized via probability distributions several examples application real case study show even though design analysis requires significant effort potential contribute planning robust replicable studies finally future developments bayesian framework discussed