Zachary Zimmer|Linda G. Martin|Daniel S. Nagin|Bobby Jones
Modeling Disability Trajectories and Mortality of the Oldest-Old in China
University of California, San Francisco|RAND Corporation|Carnegie Mellon University|University of Pittsburgh
abstract article uses groupbased modeling approach jointly estimate disability mortality trajectories time based data population aged 80 older china explores relations demographic socioeconomic earlylife characteristics membership genderspecific trajectory groups threegroup model best fits data males females groups predicted numbers limitations activities daily living adls increase age pace gradual cases rapid others gender estimated mortality probability trajectories three groups follow hierarchy related predicted adl counts age 80 characteristics predict trajectorygroup membership prior nonagricultural occupation associated less favorable disability trajectories genders females rural residence greater number children ever born father work agriculture associated favorable trajectories small group males received education disability moderate changes little age findings may reflect heterogeneity survival among least advantaged well possible expansion morbidity among small advantaged group