Md. Rejaur Rahman|Ariful Islam|Nazrul Islam
Geospatial modelling on the spread and dynamics of 154 day outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Bangladesh towards vulnerability zoning and management approaches
University of Rajshahi|University of Rajshahi|Jahangirnagar University
novel covid19 worldwide transmitted pandemic received global attention since effective medication yet minimize control transmission covid19 nonpharmaceutical interventions npis followed globally however implementation needful npis effective management strategies planning spacetimebased information nature magnitude pattern transmission hotspots potential risk factors vulnerability risk level pandemic important hence study attempt indepth assess analyze covid19 outbreak transmission dynamics space time bangladesh using 154 day realtime epidemiological data series districtlevel data analyzed geospatial analysis modelling using gis getisord gi statistics applied hotspot analysis hand analytical hierarchy processbased weighted sum method ahpwsm used modelling vulnerability zoning covid19 bangladesh status pandemic covid19 still exposure level disease transmitted high rate 2037 doubling time cases 11 days latest week study period fatality rate comparatively low 13 recovery rate 5750 geospatial analysis exhibits disease propagates central parts dhaka exposed district followed chattogram narayanganj cumilla bogra single strong clustering pattern central part spread mainly southeastern part identified prime hotspot cases deaths distributions additionally potential linkages transmission disease selected factors gear spreading disease identified central eastern southeastern parts recognized high vulnerable zone conversely western southwestern northwestern northeastern parts medium vulnerable zone vulnerable zoning exercise made possible identify vulnerable areas different magnitude require urgent intervention proper management action plan accordingly comprehensive management strategies anticipated thus study useful guide towards understanding spacetimebased investigations vulnerable area delineation covid19 assist formulate effective management action plan reduce control disease propagation impacts appropriate adjustment factors local relevance covid19 vulnerability zoning derived applied regions generally used infectious disease method applied regional scale availability larger scale data determining factors could applied small areas accordingly management strategies formulated