Jessica L Wild, Adit A Ginde, Christopher J Lindsell, Alexander M Kaizer
Upstrapping to determine futility: predicting future outcomes nonparametrically from past data
Trials
firearm injuries leading cause death children adolescents usa hypothesised high rates risky behaviour high school students associated firearm injury death population obtained data youth behaviour risk survey centers disease control prevention cdc combined data cdc webbased injury statistics query reporting system cdc wideranging online data epidemiologic research american community survey 20012020 examined trends time using nonparametric test trends percentage high schoolaged youth carrying weapon preceding 30 days ranged 132 2019 185 2005 without statistically significant trend time p0051 carrying weapon school peaked 65 2005 steadily downtrended 28 2019 p0004 boys consistently reported higher rates weapon carriage white boys reporting higher rates black boys firearm homicides among adolescents 1418 years showed significant change ranging 40 per 100k 2013 83 per 100k 2020 varied considerably sex race black boys suffering rate nearly 60 per 100 000 2020 white girls rarely exceeding 1100 000 study period selfreported weapon carriage among teens usa steadily downtrended time however shooting injuries deaths former suggests progress latter remains concerning level iii retrospective cohort study