Emily J Vogel, Milagros Neyra, David A Larsen, Teng Zeng
Target and Nontarget Screening to Support Capacity Scaling for Substance Use Assessment through a Statewide Wastewater Surveillance Network in New York
Environmental science & technology
forecasting disease spread critical tool help public health officials design plan public health interventions however expected future state epidemic necessarily well defined disease spread inherently stochastic contact patterns within population heterogeneous behaviors change work use timedependent probability generating functions pgfs capture characteristics modeling stochastic branching process spread disease network contacts public health interventions introduced time achieve define general transmissibility equation account varying transmission rates eg masking recovery rates eg treatment contact patterns eg social distancing percentage population immunized eg vaccination resulting framework allows temporal probabilistic analysis interventions impact disease spread match continuoustime stochastic simulations much computationally expensive aid policy making define several metrics temporal probabilistic intervention forecasts compared looking expected number cases worstcase scenario time well probability reaching critical level cases seeing improvement following intervention given epidemics always follow average expected trajectories underlying dynamics change time work paves way detailed shortterm forecasts disease spread informed comparison intervention strategies