Håvard Hegre|Halvard Buhaug|Katherine Calvin|Jonas Nordkvelle|Stephanie Waldhoff|Elisabeth A. Gilmore
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
Uppsala University|Peace Research Institute Oslo|Norwegian University of Science and Technology|Peace Research Institute Oslo|Joint Global Change Research Institute|Pacific Northwest National Laboratory|University of Oslo|Peace Research Institute Oslo|Joint Global Change Research Institute|Pacific Northwest National Laboratory|University of Maryland, College Park
climate change armed civil conflict linked socioeconomic development although conditions facilitate peace may necessarily facilitate mitigation adaptation climate change economic growth lowers risk conflict generally associated increased greenhouse gas emissions costs climate mitigation policies study investigates links growth climate change conflict simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data five alternative socioeconomic pathways different mitigation adaptation assumptions known shared socioeconomic pathways ssps develop statistical model historical effect key socioeconomic variables countryspecific conflict incidence 19602013 forecast annual incidence conflict 20142100 along five ssps find ssps high investments broad societal development associated largest reduction conflict risk pronounced least developed countriespoverty alleviation human capital investments poor countries much effective instruments attain global peace stability improvements wealthier economies moreover ssp describes sustainability pathway poses lowest climate change challenges conducive global peace conventional development pathway