Ricardo Ramírez?Aldana|Juan Carlos Gómez-Verján|Omar Yaxmehen Bello?Chavolla
Spatial analysis of COVID-19 spread in Iran: Insights into geographical and structural transmission determinants at a province level
Instituto Nacional de Pediatria|Instituto Nacional de Pediatria|Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México|Instituto Nacional de Pediatria
islamic republic iran reported first covid19 cases 19th february 2020 since become one affected countries 73000 cases 4585 deaths date spatial modeling could used approach understanding structural sociodemographic factors impacted covid19 spread provincelevel iran therefore present paper developed spatial statistical approach describe covid19 cases spatially distributed identify significant spatial clusters cases socioeconomic climatic features iranian provinces might predict number cases analyses applied cumulative cases disease february 19th march 18th correspond obtaining maps associated quartiles rates covid19 cases smoothed bayesian technique relative risks calculation global morans local indicators spatial autocorrelation lisa univariate bivariate derive significant clustering fit multivariate spatial lag model considering set variables potentially affecting presence disease identified cluster provinces significantly higher rates covid19 cases around tehran pvalue 005 indicating covid19 spread within iran spatially correlated urbanized highly connected provinces older population structures higher average temperatures susceptible present higher number covid19 cases pvalue 005 interestingly literacy factor associated decrease number cases pvalue 005 might directly related health literacy compliance public health measures features indicate social distancing protecting older adults vulnerable populations well promoting health literacy might useful reduce sarscov2 spread iran one limitation analysis updated information found concerning socioeconomic climatic features 2020 even year obtained associations interpreted caution approach could applied model covid19 outbreaks countries similar characteristics case upturn covid19 within iran