Gerd Gigerenzer
Statistical Rituals: The Replication Delusion and How We Got There
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
replication crisis attributed misguided external incentives gamed researchers strategicgame hypothesis want draw attention complementary internal factor namely researchers widespread faith statistical ritual associated delusions statisticalritual hypothesis null ritual unknown statistics proper eliminates judgment precisely points statistical theories demand crucial delusion p value specifies probability successful replication ie 1 p makes replication studies appear superfluous review studies 839 academic psychologists 991 students shows replication delusion existed among 20 faculty teaching statistics psychology 39 professors lecturers 66 students two beliefs illusion certainty eg statistical significance proves effect exists bayesian wishful thinking eg probability alternative hypothesis true 1 p also make successful replication appear certain almost certain respectively every study reviewed majority researchers 5697 exhibited one delusions psychology departments need begin teaching statistical thinking rituals journal editors longer accept manuscripts report results significant significant