Karl H. Schlag|James Tremewan|Joël J. van der Weele
A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs
University of Vienna|University of Vienna|University of Amsterdam
incentivized methods eliciting subjective probabilities economic experiments present subject risky choices encourage truthful reporting discuss prominent elicitation methods underlying assumptions provide theoretical comparisons give new justification quadratic scoring rule empirical side survey performance elicitation methods actual experiments considering also practical issues implementation order effects hedging different ways presenting probabilities payment schemes experimental subjects end discussion tradeoffs involved using incentives belief elicitation guidelines implementation