Alexandra Wahab, Renana Gershoni-Poranne
COMPAS-3: a dataset of peri-condensed polybenzenoid hydrocarbons
Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP
paper two aims first investigate often people make choices conforming bayes rule natural sampling applied second show using bayes rule necessary make choices satisfying bayes rule simpler methods even fallacious heuristics might prescribe correct choices reasonably often specific circumstances considered elementary situations binary sets hypotheses data adopted ecological approach prepared twostage computer tasks resembling natural sampling probabilistic relations inferred set pictures followed choice made maximize chance preferred outcome use bayes rule deduced indirectly choices study 1 used stratified sample n 60 participants equally distributed regard gender type education humanities vs pure sciences choices satisfying bayes rule dominant investigate ways making choices directly replicated study 1 adding task verbal report study 2 n 76 choices conforming bayes rule dominated however verbal reports revealed use new noninverse rule always renders correct choices easier bayes rule apply require inversion conditions transforming ph pdh phd computing chances study 3 examined efficiency three fallacious heuristics prebayesian representativeness evidenceonly producing choices concordant bayes rule computersimulated scenarios revealed heuristics produced correct choices reasonably often specific base rates likelihood ratios summing conclude natural sampling results choices conforming bayes rule however people tend replace bayes rule simpler methods even use fallacious heuristics may satisfactorily efficient