Hao Yuan, Lei Cai, Xia Hu, Jie Wang, Shuiwang Ji
Interpreting Image Classifiers by Generating Discrete Masks
IEEE transactions on pattern analysis and machine intelligence
integrating malaria prediction models malaria control strategies help anticipate response seasonal epidemics study aimed explore possibility using routine malaria data satellitederived climate data forecast malaria cases togo generalised additive mixed models developed forecast monthly number malaria cases 40 health districts three target groups routinely collected malaria data 2013 2016 meteorological vegetation data time lag 1 2 months used model training year 2017 used model testing two methods selecting lagged meteorological environmental variables compared first method based statistical approach sa second method based biological reasoning br methods applied obtain model per target group health district mixed model per target group health region health district random effect predictive skills four models compared health district target group selected predictors models per district sa method normalised difference vegetation index minimum temperature mean temperature sa method provided accurate models training period except health districts children 5 years old adults pregnant women accurate models testing period varied health district target group provided either sa method br method despite development models four different approaches number malaria cases inaccurately forecasted models cannot used malaria control activities togo use finer spatial temporal scales nonenvironmental data could improve malaria prediction