Baishi Huang, Ye Liu, Zhiqiang Feng, Jamie R Pearce, Ruoyu Wang, Yina Zhang, Jie Chen
Residential exposure to natural outdoor environments and general health among older adults in Shanghai, China
International journal for equity in health
resurgent covid19 cases resulted reinstitution nonpharmaceutical interventions including school closures adverse effects families understanding associations school closures number incident cumulative covid19 cases critical decisionmaking estimate association schools open closed number covid19 cases compared communitybased nonpharmaceutical interventions decision analytical modelling study developed agentbased transmission model using synthetic population 1 000 000 individuals based characteristics population ontario canada members synthetic population clustered households neighborhoods rural districts cities rural regions day care facilities classrooms ie primary elementary high school colleges universities workplaces data analyzed may 5 2020 october 20 2020 school reopening september 15 2020 vs schools remaining closed different scenarios nonpharmaceutical interventions incident cumulative covid19 cases september 1 2020 october 31 2020 among 1 000 000 simulated individuals percentage infections among students teachers acquired within schools less 5 across modeled scenarios incident covid19 case numbers october 31 2020 4414 95 credible interval cri 34915382 cases scenario schools remaining closed 4740 95 cri 38635691 cases scenario schools reopening communitybased nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios communitybased nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented incident case numbers october 31 714 95 cri 568908 cases schools remaining closed 780 95 cri 580993 cases schools reopening scenarios applied case numbers observed early october ontario cumulative case numbers 777 95 cri 621993 cases schools remaining closed 803 95 cri 617990 cases schools reopening scenarios implementation communitybased interventions vs communitybased interventions mean difference 39 355 cumulative covid19 cases october 31 2020 keeping schools closed vs reopening yielded mean difference 2040 cases decision analytical modeling study synthetic population individuals ontario canada found covid19 cases schools due acquisition community rather transmission within schools changes covid19 case numbers associated school reopenings relatively small compared changes associated communitybased nonpharmaceutical interventions