Keyonna M King, Tatiana Tchouankam, Ron Shope, Regina Idoate, Martina Clarke, Dejun Su, Patrik Johansson
Barriers and opportunities for promoting health professions careers among African American students in the Midwest
Journal of the National Medical Association
develop externally validate 10year risk prediction model natural onset menopause using readytouse predictors populationbased prospective cohort study communitydwelling premenopausal women aged 28 years older enrolled swiss colaus dutch prevend study incidence selfreported natural menopause based existing literature 11 predictors tested study colaus cohort used develop model applying backwardelimination approach bayesian model averaging internal validation performed bootstrapping external validation performed using data prevend cohort recalibrating baseline survival estimate cstatistic calibration slopes expectedobserved probabilities calculated measures model internal andor external performances final analysis included 750 1032 premenopausal women colaus prevend cohort respectively among 445 59 colaus 387 38 prevend experienced menopause median followup 107 9 years respectively final model included age alcohol consumption smoking status education level systolic blood pressure upon external calibration prevend cohort model exhibited good discrimination cstatistic 0888 expectedobserved probability 082 present first internally externally validated prediction model natural menopause onset using readily available predictors validation model populations needed