§ 

The idiosyncrasy and inability to extrapolate beyond a training distribution is at odds 
with the generality of much of our commonsense knowledge.  It also makes causality 
difficult to reckon with; see also Pearl and Mackenzie (Pearl & Mackenzie, 2018). 

Extending an example from the introduction, most ordinary adults and children would 
recognize (presumably inducing from specific experiences) that the following abstract, 
causal generalization is true: 

IF YOU BREAK A BOTTLE THAT CONTAINS A LIQUID, SOME OF THE LIQUID WILL (OTHER THINGS 

BEING EQUAL) PROBABLY ESCAPE THE BOTTLE.
The Next Decade in AI-