Several leading AI companies explicitly aim to build such systems,98 and believe that they may 
succeed this decade.99 Some surveys of published machine learning researchers have found 
the median respondent predicts a greater than 10% chance of human-level machine 
intelligence by 2035, though these surveys have been critiqued.100 Attempts at forecasting the 
development of human-level machine intelligence based on historic trends in computing costs 
and growth in AI research inputs sometimes conclude that there is a greater than 10% 
probability by 2035.101 

However, there is a large amount of uncertainty about the timeline to these capabilities. Many, 
if not most, other researchers do not expect AI systems that generally match human 
performance within twenty years and do not agree that it is a concern.102 Historically, and 
frequently, there have been predictions of imminent AI breakthroughs that did not come to 
pass.103 

What risks do frontier AI present?
Capabilities and risks from frontier AI 