• I’m focusing on 2070 because I want to keep vividly in mind that I and many other readers
(and/or their children) should expect to live to see the claims at stake here falsiﬁed or
conﬁrmed. That said, the main arguments don’t actually require the development of relevant
systems within any particular period of time (though timelines in this respect can matter to
e.g. the amount of evidence that present-day systems and conditions provide about future
risks).

• I’m not addressing the question of what sorts of interventions are currently available for

lowering the risk in question, or how they compare with work on other issues.

• Section 8 involves assigning (a) subjective probabilities to (b) imprecisely operationalized
claims, in the context of (c) a multi-step argument. I discuss cautions on all of three of these
fronts there (and I include an appendix aimed at warding off some possible problems with
(c) in particular).
Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?