Here, then, is the argument:

172The imprecision here does mean that people disagreeing about speciﬁc premises may not have the same
thing in mind; but a single person attempting to come to their own views can hold their own interpretations in
mind. And the overall probability on permanent human disempowerment by 2070 seems less ambiguous in
meaning.

173See, for example, Yudkowsky on the “Multiple Stage Fallacy,” and discussion from Kaufman (2016).
174More generally: the possibility of biases in one method of estimation (e.g., multiplying estimates for
multiple conditional premises) doesn’t show that some alternative methodology is preferable. And some things
do actually require many conditional premises to be true.

175I also played around a bit with a rough Guesstimate model that sampled from high/low ranges for the

different premises.
Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?