Investments in AI will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years.86 Leading AI developers 
like Anthropic and OpenAI have garnered significant funding and established cloud 
partnerships, in large part to support further scaling of compute.87 Hardware manufacturers like 
TSMC are reportedly expanding their production of AI chips, again suggesting that more 
computational resources will be available for training.88 

However, sustaining the rate of recent rapid scale up of compute and data past 2030 is likely to 
require new approaches. Developers would have to i) spend hundreds of billions of pounds on 
compute for a single training run89 and ii) find ways to generate sufficient high-quality data 
going beyond what is readily available on the internet.90 Having said this, improvements in 
algorithmic efficiency may reduce compute needs, such that compute might not be a binding 
constraint.  

Novel research directions that could further accelerate frontier AI progress include:
Capabilities and risks from frontier AI 