What dataset is used to train the model?
Collected tweets and opening and closing stock prices of Microsoft.
Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on twitter has been an intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the aggregate public mood collected from twitter may well be correlated with Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from twitter and analyze the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets.
Earlier studies on stock market prediction are based on the historical stock prices. Later studies have debunked the approach of predicting stock market movements using historical prices. Stock market prices are largely fluctuating. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that financial market movements depend on news, current events and product releases and all these factors will have a significant impact on a company's stock value BIBREF0 . Because of the lying unpredictability in news and current events, stock market prices follow a random walk pattern and cannot be predicted with more than 50% accuracy BIBREF1 . With the advent of social media, the information about public feelings has become abundant. Social media is transforming like a perfect platform to share public emotions about any topic and has a significant impact on overall public opinion. Twitter, a social media platform, has received a lot of attention from researchers in the recent times. Twitter is a micro-blogging application that allows users to follow and comment other users thoughts or share their opinions in real time BIBREF2 . More than million users post over 140 million tweets every day. This situation makes Twitter like a corpus with valuable data for researchers BIBREF3 .Each tweet is of 140 characters long and speaks public opinion on a topic concisely. The information exploited from tweets are very useful for making predictions BIBREF4 . In this paper, we contribute to the field of sentiment analysis of twitter data. Sentiment classification is the task of judging opinion in a piece of text as positive, negative or neutral. There are many studies involving twitter as a major source for public-opinion analysis. Asur and Huberman BIBREF5 have predicted box office collections for a movie prior to its release based on public sentiment related to movies, as expressed on Twitter. Google flu trends are being widely studied along with twitter for early prediction of disease outbreaks. Eiji et al. BIBREF6 have studied the twitter data for catching the flu outbreaks. Ruiz et al. BIBREF7 have used time-constrained graphs to study the problem of correlating the Twitter micro-blogging activity with changes in stock prices and trading volumes. Bordino et al. BIBREF8 have shown that trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with their query volumes (i.e., the number of users requests submitted to search engines on the Internet). Gilbert and Karahalios BIBREF9 have found out that increases in expressions of anxiety, worry and fear in weblogs predict downward pressure on the S&P 500 index. Bollen BIBREF10 showed that public mood analyzed through twitter feeds is well correlated with Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). All these studies showcased twitter as a valuable source and a powerful tool for conducting studies and making predictions. Rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the related works and Section 3 discusses the data portion demonstrating the data collection and pre-processing part. In Section 4 we discuss the sentiment analysis part in our work followed by Section 5 which examines the correlation part of extracted sentiment with stocks. In Section 6 we present the results, accuracy and precision of our sentiment analyzer followed by the accuracy of correlation analyzer. In Section 7 we present our conclusions and Section 8 deals with our future work plan.  