John Paul II  was the first non-Italian Pope in exactly 600 years, so other things being equal, his successor would presumably be Italian.
John Paul II was the first Pope who wasn't Italian in 600 years on the dot.
( z1 person :ARG0-of ( z2 have-org-role :ARG2 ( z3 pope ) ) :ord ( z4 ordinal-entity :value 1 :range ( z5 temporal-quantity :quant 600 :unit ( z6 year ) :time-of ( z7 dot ) ) ) :domain ( z8 person :name ( z9 name :op "John" :op "Paul" :op "II" ) ) :mod ( z10 country :polarity - :name ( z11 name :op "Italy" ) ) )