Simple fusion-fission quantifies Israel-Palestine violence and suggests multi-adversary solution
<|reference_start|>Simple fusion-fission quantifies Israel-Palestine violence and suggests multi-adversary solution: Why humans fight has no easy answer. However, understanding better how humans fight could inform future interventions, hidden shifts and casualty risk. Fusion-fission describes the well-known grouping behavior of fish etc. fighting for survival in the face of strong opponents: they form clusters ('fusion') which provide collective benefits and a cluster scatters when it senses danger ('fission'). Here we show how similar clustering (fusion-fission) of human fighters provides a unified quantitative explanation for complex casualty patterns across decades of Israel-Palestine region violence, as well as the October 7 surprise attack -- and uncovers a hidden post-October 7 shift. State-of-the-art data shows this fighter fusion-fission in action. It also predicts future 'super-shock' attacks that will be more lethal than October 7 and will arrive earlier. It offers a multi-adversary solution. Our results -- which include testable formulae and a plug-and-play simulation -- enable concrete risk assessments of future casualties and policy-making grounded by fighter behavior.<|reference_end|>
@article{huo2024simple,
    title={Simple fusion-fission quantifies Israel-Palestine violence and suggests
  multi-adversary solution},
    author={Frank Yingjie Huo, Pedro D. Manrique, Dylan J. Restrepo, Gordon Woo,
  and Neil F. Johnson},
    journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.02816},
    year={2024},
    archivePrefix={arXiv},
    eprint={2409.02816},
    primaryClass={physics.soc-ph cs.CE math-ph math.MP nlin.AO}
}