The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
<|reference_start|>The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty: This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.<|reference_end|>
@article{hegre2024the,
    title={The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of
  Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty},
    author={H{aa}vard Hegre (1, 2), Paola Vesco (1, 2), Michael Colaresi (2, 3),
  Jonas Vestby (1), Alexa Timlick (1), Noorain Syed Kazmi (1), Friederike
  Becker (4), Marco Binetti (5), Tobias Bodentien (4), Tobias Bohne (5),
  Patrick T. Brandt (6), Thomas Chadefaux (7), Simon Drauz (4), Christoph
  Dworschak (8), Vito D'Orazio (9), Cornelius Fritz (10), Hannah Frank (7),
  Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (11, 1), Sonja H"affner (5), Martin Hofer, Finn L.
  Klebe (12), Luca Macis (13), Alexandra Malaga (14), Marius Mehrl (15), Nils
  W. Metternich (12), Daniel Mittermaier (5), David Muchlinski (16), Hannes
  Mueller (14, 17), Christian Oswald (5), Paola Pisano (13), David Randahl (2),
  Christopher Rauh (18), Lotta R"uter (4), Thomas Schincariol (7), Benjamin
  Seimon (19), Elena Siletti (13), Marco Tagliapietra (13), Chandler Thornhill
  (16), Johan Vegelius (20), and Julian Walterskirchen (5) ((1) Peace Research
  Institute Oslo (PRIO), (2) Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala
  University, (3) University of Pittsburgh, (4) Institute of Statistics (STAT),
  Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), (5) Center for Crisis Early Warning,
  University of the Bundeswehr Munich, (6) School of Economic, Political, and
  Policy Sciences, University of Texas, Dallas, (7) Trinity College Dublin, (8)
  University of York, (9) West Virginia University, (10) Pennsylvania State
  University, (11) University of Essex, (12) University College London, (13)
  Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of
  Turin, (14) Institute for Economic Analysis, Barcelona, (15) University of
  Leeds, (16) Georgia Tech, (17) Barcelona School of Economics, (18) University
  of Cambridge, (19) Fundaci'o Economia Analitica, (20) Department of Medical
  Sciences, Uppsala University)},
    journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.11045},
    year={2024},
    archivePrefix={arXiv},
    eprint={2407.11045},
    primaryClass={stat.AP cs.LG stat.CO}
}