Estimating the Hallucination Rate of Generative AI
<|reference_start|>Estimating the Hallucination Rate of Generative AI: This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a \textit{hallucination} as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.<|reference_end|>
@article{jesson2024estimating,
    title={Estimating the Hallucination Rate of Generative AI},
    author={Andrew Jesson and Nicolas Beltran-Velez and Quentin Chu and Sweta
  Karlekar and Jannik Kossen and Yarin Gal and John P. Cunningham and David
  Blei},
    journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.07457},
    year={2024},
    archivePrefix={arXiv},
    eprint={2406.07457},
    primaryClass={cs.LG stat.ML}
}