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**Arcada:
**DP in International Business and DP in Plastics Technology: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **Central Ostrobothnia UAS:
**DP in Business Management, DP in Chemistry and Technology, DP in Industrial Management, DP in Information Technology, DP in Nursing and DP in Tourism:
Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**HAMK UAS: **
Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, India, Kenya, Kosovo, Latvia, Mexico, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam
**Helsinki Metropolia UAS:
**DP in [European Business Administration](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/european-business-administration/)
[DP in European Management](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/european-management/) [DP in International Business and Logistics](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/international-business-and-logistics/) [DP in Electronics](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/electronics/)
[DP in Environmental Engineering](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/environmental-engineering/) [DP in InformationTechnology](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/information-technology/) [DP in Media Engineering](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/media-engineering/) [DP in Nursing](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/nursing/) [DP in Social Services](http://www.metropolia.fi/en/how-to-apply/bachelors-degree-daytimefulltime-studies/social-services/) **JAMK UAS:
**DP in Facility Management, DP in International Business, DP in Logistics Engineering, DP in Music and Media Management and DP in Nursing:
Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Kajaani UAS:
**DP in International Business and DP in Tourism: China, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **Kemi-Tornio UAS:
**Various European locations (incl. Russia), China, Nepal, Vietnam, USA, Canada, Tanzania, Ghana **Kymenlaakso UAS**:
DP in International Business: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Lahti UAS:
**DP in International Business:
Brazil, Canada, Mexico, China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary,Kosovo, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey
**Mikkeli UAS:
**DP in Business Management, DP in Environmental Engineering and DP in Information Technology: Bangladesh, China, Hungary, India, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **Oulu UAS:
**DP in Business Information Technology: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
DP in Information Technology: Bangladesh, China, , Ghana, Hungary, India, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
DP in International Business: Bangladesh, China, Hungary, India, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Rovaniemi UAS:
**DP in Information Technology, DP in Innovative Business Services and DP in Tourism: Bangladesh, China, Hungary, India, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **SAMK UAS:**
[more information](http://www.samk.fi/apply) **Saimaa UAS:
**DP in Chemical Engineering, DP in International Business, DP in Mechanical Engineering and Production Technology and DP in Tourism: Bangladesh, China, Hungary, India,, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **Savonia UAS:
**DP in Industrial Management and DP in Information Technology: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
DP in International Business: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Seinäjoki UAS:**
DP in International Business and DP in Nursing: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Tampere UAS:
**DP in Environmental Engineering: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Nepal, Russia
DP in International Business: Bangladesh, China, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
DP in Tourism: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam
**Turku UAS:
**DP in Information Technology and DP in International Business: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam **Vaasa UAS:
**DP in Information Technology, DP in International Business and DP in Tourism: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hungary, India, Kenya, Latvia, Nepal, Poland, Russia, Vietnam


markdown:
Chào Đức
Bạn hãy chọn một chiếc gương soi đc 1/2 người để tập (kiểm tra phần răng môi).Chia phần vát beck thành 3 phần há miệng để răng trên của bạn cắn nhẹ 1/3 của phần vát đó môi chùm lên mặt ngoài phần trên của beck bạn có thể kiểm tra bằng cách lấy ngón tay trỏ đặt lên phần mặt vát của beck c òn lại nếu đốt ngón tay đặt vừa 1/3 mặt vát đó là vừa đủ .Môi dưới hơi cuốn nhẹ sao cho môi phủ được hàng 4 răng dưới đặt mặt reed lên môi dưới ngậm miệng lại vừa đủ sao không chặt quá khiến reed ép chặt vào mặt dưới của beck rồi từ từ thổi nhẹ khi đã phát âm ra tiếng nhớ cữ sau đó tập nhiều lần chio đến khi thuần thục.
Lưu ý nếu ngậm beck (vị trí của răng) sâu quá sẽ phát âm dễ nhưng tiếng kèn sẽ xấu (thô).
Chúc bạn thành công.

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Kết quả
**1** - **3** trong khoảng **3**. ( **0,03** giây)
Tp. Hồ Chí Minh | Đăng 07:32 22/12/2011 bởi
[chauchau1202](http://www.5giay.vn/member.php?u=100788901) (Thành Viên Cấp 1) trong [Mẹ và bé](http://www.5giay.vn/forumdisplay.php?f=138)
SỮA - 8K ( CÓ ĐỦ MÀU)
CHÓ
**CHIHUAHUA** - 15K
MÈO TAM THỂ - 15K
THỎ MIFFY - 20K
MÈO MAY MẮN - 15K
VÀ CÒN [www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4340302](http://www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4340302) | Xem: 416 | Trả lời: 17 | [Đã cache](detail.aspx?t=4340302)
Tp. Hồ Chí Minh | Đăng 08:14 21/12/2011 bởi
[chauchau1202](http://www.5giay.vn/member.php?u=100788901) (Thành Viên Cấp 1) trong [Mẹ và bé](http://www.5giay.vn/forumdisplay.php?f=138)
SỮA - 8K ( CÓ ĐỦ MÀU)
CHÓ
**CHIHUAHUA** - 15K
MÈO TAM THỂ - 15K
THỎ MIFFY - 20K
MÈO MAY MẮN - 15K
VÀ CÒN [www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4334959](http://www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4334959) | Xem: 1 | Trả lời: 0 | [Đã cache](detail.aspx?t=4334959)
Toàn quốc | Đăng 08:14 21/12/2011 bởi
[chauchau1202](http://www.5giay.vn/member.php?u=100788901) (Thành Viên Cấp 1) trong [Mẹ và bé](http://www.5giay.vn/forumdisplay.php?f=138)
SỮA - 8K ( CÓ ĐỦ MÀU)
CHÓ
**CHIHUAHUA** - 15K
MÈO TAM THỂ - 15K
THỎ MIFFY - 20K
MÈO MAY MẮN - 15K
VÀ CÒN [www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4334961](http://www.5giay.vn/showthread.php?t=4334961) | Xem: 28 | Trả lời: 5 | [Đã cache](detail.aspx?t=4334961)

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website hướng dẫn học photoshop bằng hình ảnh + video
www.hocpsd.com
Nhập Email của bạn:
Bạn sẽ nhận Email thông báo có bài viết mới theo địa chỉ này sau khi bạn kích hoạt tài khoản.Đã có 1306 readers đăng ký,nhưng chỉ hơn 800 readers kích hoạt tài khoản.
Copy right 2009 - 2015 hocpsd.com Ghi rõ nguồn www.hocpsd.com dưới dạng liên kết khi phát hành lại nội dung
## 0 Ý kiến:
## ĐỂ LẠI Ý KIẾN CỦA BẠN:Hãy để lại thắc mắc, ý kiến đóng góp của bạn, xin viết tiếng Việt có dấu để tôn trọng người xem và cũng đừng Spam.

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Viện đào tạo liên tục
## VIỆN ĐÀO TẠO LIÊN TỤC
## I - Chức năng:
Viện đào tạo liên tục là đơn vị chức năng có nhiệm vụ tham mưu giúp việc cho Hiệu trưởng về tổ chức quản lý, đào tạo hệ Đại học Tại chức (Vừa làm vừa học) theo kế hoạch và chương trình nội dung đào tạo của trường Đại học Bách khoa Hà Nội.
## II - Nhiệm vụ:

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Liferay-Portal: Liferay Portal Standard Edition 5.2.3 (Augustine / Build 5203 / May 20, 2009)


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|Encyclopedia of Jewish Life (2001), Minkovtsy||2001||General Reference|
|Shtetl Finder, Cohen (1989), Minkovtsy||General Reference|
|Slownik Geograficzny, Minkovtsy||General Reference|
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Trang chủ
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Thành viên:
havinanetco
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Taucua
,
nguoivohinh
Tổng cộng có 70 người online trong 10 phút vừa qua.
Kỷ lục: 238 người đã ghé thăm diễn đàn vào lúc 23-03-2012 06:35.
Tổng số thành viên: 44,941
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nguoivohinh
Diễn đàn
>
Kỹ thuật in lụa
> ỊN NHŨ VÀNG TRÊN MẶT KIẾNG
Bạn phải đăng nhập mới có thể gửi bài hoặc trả lời.
Gửi vào lúc: 26-03-2007 17:18
tung_dollar
Tham gia: 23.03.07
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15
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điểm.
CÁC PÁC ƠI CHO EM HỎI ,MỰC IN NHŨ VÀNG TRÊN MẶT KIẾNG BÁN Ở ĐÂU VẬY CÁC PÁC ,EM ĐI HẾT PHÙNG HƯNG RỒI SAO KG THẤY AI BÁN ,SẲN DỊP CÁC PÁC CHỈ EM VÀI CHIÊU VỀ IN LỤA TRÊN MẶT KIẾNG ĐẶC BIỆT LÀ IN NHỮ VÀNG VÌ EM NGHE NÓI MỰC CỦA NÓ ĐẮC LẮM EM VỐN ÍT LỠ IN MÀ BỊ TRÓC CHẮC EM HẾT VỐN LUÔN ,MONG CÁC PÁC GIÚP ĐỞ EM A! CÁM ƠN CÁC PÁC NHIỀU !
Gửi vào lúc: 27-03-2007 02:28
Lieu Quoc Binh
Địa chỉ: Củ Chi, Tp.HCM
Tham gia: 24.03.05
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41
điểm.
70tr vnd/kg
Liêu Quốc Bình
UV LAMP & UV INK
Total Solution for UV Technology!
H/P: 098.333.1702, Email: sales@uvtech.vn
www.uvtech.vn
Gửi vào lúc: 27-03-2007 05:59
quangcao209
Địa chỉ: 1/251 Kim Mã, Ba Đình, Hà Nội
Tham gia: 18.03.07
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điểm.
Có nghe nhầm không bác Bình ơi, 70 triệu /kg ? :s
Gửi vào lúc: 27-03-2007 09:57
Lieu Quoc Binh
Địa chỉ: Củ Chi, Tp.HCM
Tham gia: 24.03.05
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- Riêng bài viết này đã được tặng
1
điểm.
k sai, gia chính xac ñâáy!
Neu co hang thi dua minh in cung duoc hihi...
Liêu Quốc Bình
UV LAMP & UV INK
Total Solution for UV Technology!
H/P: 098.333.1702, Email: sales@uvtech.vn
www.uvtech.vn
Gửi vào lúc: 27-03-2007 14:10
khoalt
Super Admin
BTC OFFLINE KTI 2015
Địa chỉ: Gò Vấp - Thủ Đức
Tham gia: 23.12.04
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424
điểm.
Mực này xài pigment làm bằng vàng 9999 hay sao mắc quá zậy?
Liên hệ: lethanhkhoa@gmail.com
Gửi vào lúc: 28-03-2007 02:35
Lieu Quoc Binh
Địa chỉ: Củ Chi, Tp.HCM
Tham gia: 24.03.05
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270
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41
điểm.
K sai, pigment là vàng nhưng chưa tới 9999 , chỉ khoảng 9998 thôi
)
Liêu Quốc Bình
UV LAMP & UV INK
Total Solution for UV Technology!
H/P: 098.333.1702, Email: sales@uvtech.vn
www.uvtech.vn
Gửi vào lúc: 28-03-2007 15:03
tung_dollar
Tham gia: 23.03.07
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TRời
!!!!!!!!! Kg biết bác Bình có nhầm hay hiểu nhầm ý em kg nủa,Nhũ vàng ý của em là nó giống như ép kim vậy đó hay là cái chử vàng trến mặt kiến ông Thổ Thần ,hoặc trên lịch Vạn niên đó pác ,chứ kg phải vàng (gold) đâu nha pác,còn nếu pác hiểu như ý của em mà mực đó 70tr /kg hic hic em bó tay chắc trả hàng về cho khách thôi hic hic hic
Gửi vào lúc: 02-10-2014 16:32
innhathao
Tham gia: 24.04.11
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có 1 cách rẻ hơn rất nhiều nhưng công phu 1 chút, bạn tìm mua keo tráng gương phủ 1 lớp mỏng trên mặt kính rồi dùng nhụ PP in lên ( vẫn đẹp như thường) tuy nhiên nếu sản phẩm ko cần độ bám VD hình ông thổ thần họ vẫn bán thì chỉ cần nhụ PP in lên là xong
Gửi vào lúc: 03-10-2014 12:46
nguyenhuuminh
Tham gia: 12.03.13
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tung_dollar đã viết:
CÁC PÁC ƠI CHO EM HỎI ,MỰC IN NHŨ VÀNG TRÊN MẶT KIẾNG BÁN Ở ĐÂU VẬY CÁC PÁC ,EM ĐI HẾT PHÙNG HƯNG RỒI SAO KG THẤY AI BÁN ,SẲN DỊP CÁC PÁC CHỈ EM VÀI CHIÊU VỀ IN LỤA TRÊN MẶT KIẾNG ĐẶC BIỆT LÀ IN NHỮ VÀNG VÌ EM NGHE NÓI MỰC CỦA NÓ ĐẮC LẮM EM VỐN ÍT LỠ IN MÀ BỊ TRÓC CHẮC EM HẾT VỐN LUÔN ,MONG CÁC PÁC GIÚP ĐỞ EM A! CÁM ƠN CÁC PÁC NHIỀU !
BẠN LIÊN LẠC VỚI MÌNH THEO SỐ 0908.629.333 NHÉ, MÌNH CHUYÊN BÁN MEN MỰC CỦA HÀN QUỐC, MÌNH Ở HÀ NỘI.
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آ Hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng xأ¢y dل»±ng lأ vؤƒn bل؛£n cأ³ giأ، trل»‹ phأ،p lأ½ rأ ng buل»™c vل»پ quyل»پn vأ nghؤ©a vل»¥ cل»§a cأ،c bأھn tham gia hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng phل؛£i cأ³ trأ،ch nhiل»‡m thل»±c hiل»‡n cأ،c ؤ‘iل»پu khoل؛£n ؤ‘أ£ kأ½ kل؛؟t, lأ cؤƒn cل»© ؤ‘ل»ƒ thanh toأ،n vأ phل؛§n xل» cأ،c tranh chل؛¥p (nل؛؟u cأ³) trong quan hل»‡ hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng. Theo Thأ´ng tئ° sل»‘ 02/2005/TT- BXD (25/2/2005) cل»§a Bل»™ Xأ¢y dل»±ng: tuل»³ theo tل»«ng quy mأ´, tأnh chل؛¥t cل»§a cأ´ng trأ¬nh, loل؛،i cأ´ng viل»‡c, cأ،c mل»‘i quan hل»‡ cل»§a cأ،c bأھn, hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ³ thل»ƒ cأ³ nhiل»پu loل؛،i vل»›i nل»™i dung khأ،c nhau, cل»¥ thل»ƒ:
Hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng tئ° vل؛¥n: ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c kأ½ kل؛؟t giل»¯a bأھn giao thل؛§u vأ bأھn nhل؛n thل؛§u ؤ‘ل»ƒ thل»±c hiل»‡n cأ،c cأ´ng viل»‡c tئ° vل؛¥n nhئ°: lل؛p quy hoل؛،ch xأ¢y dل»±ng, lل؛p dل»± أ،n ؤ‘ل؛§u tئ° xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh, khل؛£o sأ،t xأ¢y dل»±ng, thiل؛؟t kل؛؟ xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh, lل»±a chل»چn nhأ thل؛§u, giأ،m sأ،t thi cأ´ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh, quل؛£n lأ½ dل»± أ،n ؤ‘ل؛§u tئ° xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh, thل؛©m tra thiل؛؟t kل؛؟, tل»•ng dل»± toأ،n, dل»± toأ،n vأ cأ،c hoل؛،t ؤ‘ل»™ng tئ° vل؛¥n khأ،c cأ³ liأھn quan ؤ‘ل؛؟n xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh.
Hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng thi cأ´ng ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c xأ¢y dل»±ng: ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c kأ½ kل؛؟t giل»¯a bأھn giao thل؛§u vأ bأھn nhل؛n thل؛§u ؤ‘ل»ƒ thل»±c hiل»‡n viل»‡c thi cأ´ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh, hل؛،ng mل»¥c cأ´ng trأ¬nh hoل؛·c phل؛§n viل»‡c xأ¢y dل»±ng theo thiل؛؟t kل؛؟, dل»± toأ،n xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh.
Hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng tل»•ng thل؛§u xأ¢y dل»±ng: ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c kأ½ kل؛؟t giل»¯a chل»§ ؤ‘ل؛§u tئ° vل»›i mل»™t nhأ thل؛§u hoل؛·c mل»™t liأھn danh nhأ thل؛§u (gل»چi chung lأ tل»•ng thل؛§u) ؤ‘ل»ƒ thل»±c hiل»‡n mل»™t loل؛،i cأ´ng viل»‡c, mل»™t sل»‘ loل؛،i cأ´ng viل»‡c hoل؛·c toأ n bل»™ cأ،c cأ´ng viل»‡c cل»§a dل»± أ،n ؤ‘ل؛§u tئ° xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh nhئ°: thiل؛؟t kل؛؟, thi cأ´ng; thiل؛؟t kل؛؟ vأ thi cأ´ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh; thiل؛؟t kل؛؟, cung ل»©ng vل؛t tئ° thiل؛؟t bل»‹, thi cأ´ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh (hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng tل»•ng thل؛§u EPC), lل؛p dل»± أ،n, thiل؛؟t kل؛؟, cung ل»©ng vل؛t tئ° thiل؛؟t bل»‹, thi cأ´ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ´ng trأ¬nh (hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng tل»•ng thل؛§u chأ¬a khoأ، trao tay).
ؤگل»‘i vل»›i tل»«ng loل؛،i hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng nأھu trأھn, bأھn giao thل؛§u vأ bأھn nhل؛n thل؛§u cأ³ thل»ƒ thoل؛£ thuل؛n vل»پ giأ، hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng vأ phئ°ئ،ng thل»©c thanh toأ،n theo mل»™t trong cأ،c hأ¬nh thل»©c sau ؤ‘أ¢y: hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng theo giأ، trل»چn gأ³i, hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng theo ؤ‘ئ،n giأ، cل»‘ ؤ‘ل»‹nh, hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng theo giأ، ؤ‘iل»پu chل»‰nh, hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng kل؛؟t hل»£p cأ،c loل؛،i giأ، trأھn.
## Cأ،c loل؛،i hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng xأ¢y dل»±ng
Cأ³ nhل»¯ng loل؛،i hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng nأ o ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c sل» dل»¥ng trong kأ½ kل؛؟t giao thل؛§u trong hoل؛،t ؤ‘ل»™ng xأ¢y dل»±ng? Xin cho biل؛؟t sل»‘ vؤƒn bل؛£n hئ°ل»›ng dل؛«n cل»¥ thل»ƒ.
Trل؛§n Quل»‘c Hiل»‡p (ؤ‘ئ°ل»ng 14/9, P5, TX Vؤ©nh Long)
آ Hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng xأ¢y dل»±ng lأ vؤƒn bل؛£n cأ³ giأ، trل»‹ phأ،p lأ½ rأ ng buل»™c vل»پ quyل»پn vأ nghؤ©a vل»¥ cل»§a cأ،c bأھn tham gia hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng phل؛£i cأ³ trأ،ch nhiل»‡m thل»±c hiل»‡n cأ،c ؤ‘iل»پu khoل؛£n ؤ‘أ£ kأ½ kل؛؟t, lأ cؤƒn cل»© ؤ‘ل»ƒ thanh toأ،n vأ phل؛§n xل» cأ،c tranh chل؛¥p (nل؛؟u cأ³) trong quan hل»‡ hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng. Theo Thأ´ng tئ° sل»‘ 02/2005/TT- BXD (25/2/2005) cل»§a Bل»™ Xأ¢y dل»±ng: tuل»³ theo tل»«ng quy mأ´, tأnh chل؛¥t cل»§a cأ´ng trأ¬nh, loل؛،i cأ´ng viل»‡c, cأ،c mل»‘i quan hل»‡ cل»§a cأ،c bأھn, hل»£p ؤ‘ل»“ng xأ¢y dل»±ng cأ³ thل»ƒ cأ³ nhiل»پu loل؛،i vل»›i nل»™i dung khأ،c nhau, cل»¥ thل»ƒ:
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Bل؛،n muل»‘n tأ¬m hiل»ƒu thأھm cأ،c vل؛¥n ؤ‘ل»پ liأھn quan. Hأ£y tham khل؛£o cأ،c bأ i viل؛؟t khأ،c tل؛،i website chأ؛ng tأ´i hoل؛·c gل»چi Tل»•ng ؤ‘أ i 1900 6279 ؤ‘ل»ƒ ؤ‘ئ°ل»£c Luل؛t sئ° tئ° vل؛¥n trل»±c tiل؛؟p.
### 1 Comment
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[Comment Link](/luat-xay-dung/item/1715-cأ،c-loل؛،i-hل»£p-ؤ‘ل»“ng-xأ¢y-dل»±ng.html#comment25839)
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### Tuesday, May 19, 2015
## But Winter Must End!!!
Okay, not in Ice Ages, but currently we are in one of the balmy interludes, although I can concede that Bostonians may have wondered about that earlier this year.
The economy may not be that strong, but it is getting its legs under it.
[New Residential Construction](http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf)takes a really strong pop in April. Very nice. Very strong. In both permits and starts.
The economy may not be that strong, but it is getting its legs under it.
### Friday, May 15, 2015
## The Real World Effect Of That Big Flaming Ball Of Gas In The Sky
Secondary to my previous post, here's the joy of it all.
IP has been working down a bit for months. The blue line is the index, the red line is the YoY. The green line is real retail YoY. We're not QUITE in a recession yet, and hopefully we won't get there, but the reason we are not was the giveback on the gas. That gave consumers enough back to get them through another bad winter with more margin. But we are right on the line. I expect IP to rebound slightly in May - the latest report is
That blue line is just failing to green shoot, and this goes through May 9th. Rail was hard to read this year, because of course the port strike slowed things, and then there was a rebound, so one had to just sit and wait for all of that to work itself out of the system to confirm a trend.
Now, I still believe there is the economic space to get out of this without recession. Nor am I surprised, because honestly the direction of CMI does show tightness. But it is not the time to be loading the economy down with ANY more regulatory mandates, and ACA changes have truly had a very adverse effect on many families. Consumer Units.
This is all quite dire for China, which usually gets a May uplift from the US retail cycle, and may not get that much of one this year. China's economy looks really weak.
A close-up on that mug shot:
The red, graphed on the right scale, is IP YoY. The green real retail YoY.
I was trying to find the reason for the real stresses seen in NACM CMI, and one of the things I came up with is the sharply increased electricity costs for some regions, combined with a bad winter.
In any case, if we want to scrape through this "soft" patch, we are going to have to do it ourselves. The only government policy that is helping at all this year is the drop in FHA premiums.
[Industrial production](http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm)was released today. Here's the result:
IP has been working down a bit for months. The blue line is the index, the red line is the YoY. The green line is real retail YoY. We're not QUITE in a recession yet, and hopefully we won't get there, but the reason we are not was the giveback on the gas. That gave consumers enough back to get them through another bad winter with more margin. But we are right on the line. I expect IP to rebound slightly in May - the latest report is
[Rail confirms](https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-05-13-railtraffic.aspx)this but may be giving my May rebound theory the raspberry:
For the first 18 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 5,043,559 carloads, down 1.8 percent from the same point last year; and 4,679,513 intermodal units, up 1.7 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 18 weeks of 2015 was 9,723,072 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to last year.Here's the graph - we've been weakening recently:
That blue line is just failing to green shoot, and this goes through May 9th. Rail was hard to read this year, because of course the port strike slowed things, and then there was a rebound, so one had to just sit and wait for all of that to work itself out of the system to confirm a trend.
Now, I still believe there is the economic space to get out of this without recession. Nor am I surprised, because honestly the direction of CMI does show tightness. But it is not the time to be loading the economy down with ANY more regulatory mandates, and ACA changes have truly had a very adverse effect on many families. Consumer Units.
This is all quite dire for China, which usually gets a May uplift from the US retail cycle, and may not get that much of one this year. China's economy looks really weak.
A close-up on that mug shot:
The red, graphed on the right scale, is IP YoY. The green real retail YoY.
I was trying to find the reason for the real stresses seen in NACM CMI, and one of the things I came up with is the sharply increased electricity costs for some regions, combined with a bad winter.
In any case, if we want to scrape through this "soft" patch, we are going to have to do it ourselves. The only government policy that is helping at all this year is the drop in FHA premiums.
### Thursday, May 14, 2015
## Speaking of the Economic Weather Report
There is no question that bad winters are not helping the US economy. Admittedly, there are other problems, such as public debt at the state and local level. You simply cannot integrate a model with growing economies, constrained household incomes, and an ever-growing state and local tax burden. Something's got to give, and it is going to be real growth.
But as a sideline, and perhaps a gentle hint not to buy farmland too far north, I thought I'd look at a little bit of the climate data. I have remained a spectator in the carbon wars, watching with increasing fascination as the real world situation ameliorated and the human angst-o-sphere heated up to compensate. Now that we have the Pope piling in, I suspect that has reached its natural peak, unless the Chief Rabbi is waiting in the wings.
In the real world, colder northern winter temps will have an effect, and the angst-o-sphere will not compensate.
First, from the really excellent site
We have here the RSS lower troposphere temp data series. The benefit is that it is very, very accurate. The downside is that it is of short duration, though lengthening every year. We have a few trend lines - since 1998 it's obvious that it has been getting colder. Since 1995 (nearly 20 years!) the trend line is about flat, which surely means something.
We also have the monthly sunspots on a 20 year average, which I long ago figured out was the best predictor represented this way.
It is evident that something changed in the late 1990s. The CO2 keeps going up and up, but it isn't driving temps up. There is a suspicious hint that solar activity is. That trend shifts, and lo and behold, so does the troposphere trend.
Yes, yes, I have read all that stuff about the heat hiding in the oceans. Really? One day the heat just looked up into the sky and screamed "OMG - Where are the sunspots?",and the heat dove deep into the ocean to hide from the implacable, frowning face of its solar master like Godzilla when the Japanese planes get too close? Nah. Not even a plausible fairy tale.
Solar activity does vary a lot over time, and it does seem to correlate with temps as observed, although it's well to note that in the past land temperature measurements were biased toward the northern hemisphere (and they still are today) and that they will be a lot less accurate than satellite data. So mentally stick in some large error bars:
Here we have HADCRUT3, which is a much longer running temp series, with AMO (the northern oscillation) and sunspots. Normalized and 10 year means. I'm not trying to pull tricks here.
As you can see, the historical record is that solar activity does vary a lot over time. There has seemed to be a correlation with climate. I added AMO, because I suspect part of the northern climate transition is driven by AMO, and that solar activity drives AMO
Note that I don't claim that CO2 has no effect on temperatures - I suspect that it does, but only a very weak one, and in part that effect is offset by changes in the distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere (a negative feedback rather than the theorized positive feedback).
I also suspect that the jagged AMO ridges when AMO is in transition are correlated with US dustbowls, which makes me a bit nervous.
This is pretty much the same thing, but I added in PDO (Pacific oscillation). Why? Just in case you wanted it. I think the ocean current shifts distribute the heat, but I think they may be largely influenced by solar shifts.
A look at my theorized system during the time frame that we have concurrent data:
I think AMO loops within its own bounds, which is a natural regulator of solar changes. But the point is that AMO does seem to influence northern weather, which has several implications. For one, steeper roofs in Boston would be wise. For another, this cycle has only just begun, so I wouldn't expect these last winters to be flukes. I would expect the coming US northern climate to be far more akin to that of the tales told by my parents and grandparents when I was young. Winters used to be colder, they would say, and you know, they were right.
Last, a look at the above with a five year mean, just so you know I am not cheating:
One of the interesting things lost in the angst-o-sphere has been the remarkable similarity in the temperature sequence between the 1900-1940 shift and the late 1970s-2000 shift. I have a LOT of trouble accepting CO2 as a strong driver, especially since these shifts are, historically speaking, piddling. Picayune. Petty.
I crack up when I read or hear stuff about how the melting Arctic is going to hand us Tatooine. Been there, done that. If in the climactic optimum the methane didn't fry us, it is not going to fry us now.
The
What we have to worry about in the near term are northern climate conditions that may be a little harsh, and will have an effect over the longer term on economic growth.
But as a sideline, and perhaps a gentle hint not to buy farmland too far north, I thought I'd look at a little bit of the climate data. I have remained a spectator in the carbon wars, watching with increasing fascination as the real world situation ameliorated and the human angst-o-sphere heated up to compensate. Now that we have the Pope piling in, I suspect that has reached its natural peak, unless the Chief Rabbi is waiting in the wings.
In the real world, colder northern winter temps will have an effect, and the angst-o-sphere will not compensate.
First, from the really excellent site
[WoodForTrees.org](http://woodfortrees.org/), a look at what happened when China dumped a massive amount of carbon into the atmosphere:
We have here the RSS lower troposphere temp data series. The benefit is that it is very, very accurate. The downside is that it is of short duration, though lengthening every year. We have a few trend lines - since 1998 it's obvious that it has been getting colder. Since 1995 (nearly 20 years!) the trend line is about flat, which surely means something.
We also have the monthly sunspots on a 20 year average, which I long ago figured out was the best predictor represented this way.
*(Note that this program charts means at the center point, so that is why the curve is shifted left on the graph.)*And then we have the sharp upward trend of Mauna Loa CO2. One suspects that is not controlling global temperatures much.
It is evident that something changed in the late 1990s. The CO2 keeps going up and up, but it isn't driving temps up. There is a suspicious hint that solar activity is. That trend shifts, and lo and behold, so does the troposphere trend.
Yes, yes, I have read all that stuff about the heat hiding in the oceans. Really? One day the heat just looked up into the sky and screamed "OMG - Where are the sunspots?",and the heat dove deep into the ocean to hide from the implacable, frowning face of its solar master like Godzilla when the Japanese planes get too close? Nah. Not even a plausible fairy tale.
Solar activity does vary a lot over time, and it does seem to correlate with temps as observed, although it's well to note that in the past land temperature measurements were biased toward the northern hemisphere (and they still are today) and that they will be a lot less accurate than satellite data. So mentally stick in some large error bars:
Here we have HADCRUT3, which is a much longer running temp series, with AMO (the northern oscillation) and sunspots. Normalized and 10 year means. I'm not trying to pull tricks here.
As you can see, the historical record is that solar activity does vary a lot over time. There has seemed to be a correlation with climate. I added AMO, because I suspect part of the northern climate transition is driven by AMO, and that solar activity drives AMO
Note that I don't claim that CO2 has no effect on temperatures - I suspect that it does, but only a very weak one, and in part that effect is offset by changes in the distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere (a negative feedback rather than the theorized positive feedback).
I also suspect that the jagged AMO ridges when AMO is in transition are correlated with US dustbowls, which makes me a bit nervous.
This is pretty much the same thing, but I added in PDO (Pacific oscillation). Why? Just in case you wanted it. I think the ocean current shifts distribute the heat, but I think they may be largely influenced by solar shifts.
A look at my theorized system during the time frame that we have concurrent data:
I think AMO loops within its own bounds, which is a natural regulator of solar changes. But the point is that AMO does seem to influence northern weather, which has several implications. For one, steeper roofs in Boston would be wise. For another, this cycle has only just begun, so I wouldn't expect these last winters to be flukes. I would expect the coming US northern climate to be far more akin to that of the tales told by my parents and grandparents when I was young. Winters used to be colder, they would say, and you know, they were right.
Last, a look at the above with a five year mean, just so you know I am not cheating:
One of the interesting things lost in the angst-o-sphere has been the remarkable similarity in the temperature sequence between the 1900-1940 shift and the late 1970s-2000 shift. I have a LOT of trouble accepting CO2 as a strong driver, especially since these shifts are, historically speaking, piddling. Picayune. Petty.
[Pipsqueaks](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png): ![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png)
I crack up when I read or hear stuff about how the melting Arctic is going to hand us Tatooine. Been there, done that. If in the climactic optimum the methane didn't fry us, it is not going to fry us now.
The
[Hans Tausen Iskappe in Greenland](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Tausen_Iskappe)completely melted during the climactic optimum. It has formed since it started getting colder.
What we have to worry about in the near term are northern climate conditions that may be a little harsh, and will have an effect over the longer term on economic growth.
### Wednesday, May 13, 2015
## It's All About The Chickens Now
No, really, it is all about the chickens, aka bird flu. If it jumps to pigs, we're done. As it is, it's hard to see how poultry prices won't rise for the consumer, which is going to have a depressing effect August through the end of the year.
CA drought not helping either.
The
The
Retail is weak, and very dependent on autos which are credit-related.
Groceries are a bit worrisome. That's what I am watching. However restaurants are doing well, which slightly offsets it. Wages are rising more slowly than expenditures on food, which, to be blunt, is never a good sign. Wages are left in the dust by costs for medicine, for example, which somewhat depresses other categories.
So we still have a price-sensitive consumer with wary spending behaviors on anything not paid for out of credit.
This month's survey is one of the large-sample months, so it is more reliable. There is no sign that we are losing momentum in it - just that epic expansion is not to be expected. But that is more normal than not.
So who wins? If the chickens cooperate, inflation running about 2.3% over the course of the year. If the chickens don't cooperate, the ability to raise prices to consumers isn't there, and the strong dollar constrains export rises, so ...
Businesses are not behaving as if they expect real problems, and some of the inventory builds are just buying cheaply while they can. So I rate it continued expansion for six months.
Now those consumers!!! Those consumers may have to work a little harder, but the dollar shock should be over, the oil crunch should bottom out late second quarter or early third, and so as long as we keep buying motor vehicles, all should be well.
I do not have a clue as to whether the motor vehicle sales will hold up. Not a clue. I could argue it either way. The current suggestion is that the overall growth trajectory is slightly lower going into the third quarter, with second quarter being of course lifted by seasonal effects.
I would be sure we were out of the woods, except that the fourth month freight total isn't looking too fine, and rail has shown a very slight weakening in the last month, which is not what I expected. So I am still where I landed last October - the drop in fuel prices should have enough oomph to carry us over a naturally structurally soft patch.
And the threat to that is chickens, seriously. Nothing changes consumer behavior like difficulty covering the very basic expenses.
ACA and higher medical deductibles do show up in economic figures. Consumers facing higher medical costs are slow the first half of the year.
CA drought not helping either.
The
[headlines](http://news.yahoo.com/us-retail-sales-flat-line-april-123454641--finance.html;_ylt=A0LEVj0YV1NV9JMATConnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjB0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--)on the April retail report are rather dour, but the real picture is skewed by the Easter timing. The March report indeed was revised up, but that makes April look worse, because sales that are usually in April show up in March. These reports aren't adjusted for prices, and I think there is considerable strong-dollar effect in weaker prices, so the real picture is probably considerably better.
The
[actual report](http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf)does show some weakness both YoY and in the rolling three-month SA. It's better to use the three-month totals in cases like this. Currently the Feb-Apr YoY is +1.5%, ex autos +0.4%. So that is not good. From the prior three months (Nov-Jan) it's -0.6%, ex autos -0.7%. But it's not like April sales just suddenly flat-lined.
Retail is weak, and very dependent on autos which are credit-related.
Groceries are a bit worrisome. That's what I am watching. However restaurants are doing well, which slightly offsets it. Wages are rising more slowly than expenditures on food, which, to be blunt, is never a good sign. Wages are left in the dust by costs for medicine, for example, which somewhat depresses other categories.
So we still have a price-sensitive consumer with wary spending behaviors on anything not paid for out of credit.
[NFIB's Small Business report](http://www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/sbet201505.pdf) [was somewhat encouraging yesterday. It rose after the decisive March fall; capital outlays looked encouraging and hiring looked encouraging. Sales are declining only slightly and earnings are up. Prices are constrained by reality. There is no inflationary pressure evident in the NFIB report except for wages/compensation. There is pressure there. In order to get decent employees increases are necessary (this comes through strongly), but the pricing power isn't there to compensate that well for it.](https://www.blogger.com/null)
This month's survey is one of the large-sample months, so it is more reliable. There is no sign that we are losing momentum in it - just that epic expansion is not to be expected. But that is more normal than not.
[Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations](https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx)agree well with NFIB's employment comp crunch - expected inflation is up to 1.9%, which would be encouraging if you are a Fed Head looking to raise rates. Two-thirds of polled firms are facing [higher compensation costs](https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx), and the vast majority intend to raise prices to compensate. '
So who wins? If the chickens cooperate, inflation running about 2.3% over the course of the year. If the chickens don't cooperate, the ability to raise prices to consumers isn't there, and the strong dollar constrains export rises, so ...
Businesses are not behaving as if they expect real problems, and some of the inventory builds are just buying cheaply while they can. So I rate it continued expansion for six months.
Now those consumers!!! Those consumers may have to work a little harder, but the dollar shock should be over, the oil crunch should bottom out late second quarter or early third, and so as long as we keep buying motor vehicles, all should be well.
I do not have a clue as to whether the motor vehicle sales will hold up. Not a clue. I could argue it either way. The current suggestion is that the overall growth trajectory is slightly lower going into the third quarter, with second quarter being of course lifted by seasonal effects.
I would be sure we were out of the woods, except that the fourth month freight total isn't looking too fine, and rail has shown a very slight weakening in the last month, which is not what I expected. So I am still where I landed last October - the drop in fuel prices should have enough oomph to carry us over a naturally structurally soft patch.
And the threat to that is chickens, seriously. Nothing changes consumer behavior like difficulty covering the very basic expenses.
ACA and higher medical deductibles do show up in economic figures. Consumers facing higher medical costs are slow the first half of the year.
### Friday, May 08, 2015
## Quickie Update
Altogether this seems improved. The employment report is good, with substantial agreement between the
The two month household is 236 thousand. The monthly average for establishment is much higher, so I expect downward establishment revisions later. But still, not bad.
The economy is weak and we won't see a great second quarter, but it's not flatlining.
The major weakness in the economy can be seen in the establishment survey, giving average hourly wages YoY having increased by 53 cents an hour. Doesn't buy you much! So there's tightness on the consumption end. However the employee-population ratio increased from 58.9 to 59.3 over the year, although it has been static for the last few months.
I see further ominous Drudge headlines about all the people not working. Well, we are going to see the retirees in our overall numbers, because all the people born through 1950 are either 65 or going to turn 65 this year. They are going to retire sooner or later. Get used to it. The household survey shows that the number of people working grew by 2.8 million YoY. That's not bad.
So far this quarter,
GDP in Q1 was mildly negative, which will show up later in revisions. So far it looks like this quarter will be mildly positive. Motor vehicle sales were a touch disappointing in April.
So right now, most the reports are pretty consistent with Employment - manufacturing slow or flat, services somewhat better, construction disappointing, and all things waiting on autos. As long as autos hold up ...
The establishment survey is forecasting better construction numbers coming up due to a hefty increase in employment. 32K of the 48K shown is in the
I think May will be better on most fronts. CMI is showing weakness, but not gathering storm clouds. A cautionary note is sounded by
I expect fracking work to start picking up this summer. That should help us.
Autos - eh, I don't know. They are beginning to look a little topped out, but maybe we'll get our second wind this summer. Construction always generates truck sales, and there is probably some incentive room.
[household survey](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm)and the [establishment survey,](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm)which surely should seem to reinforce the good news. Household comes in at +192K this onh. The establishment survey for March was revised down, so it is now closer to the household number, although still higher.
The two month household is 236 thousand. The monthly average for establishment is much higher, so I expect downward establishment revisions later. But still, not bad.
[CMI](http://www.nacm.org/cmi.html)for April was released with very substantial upward revisions for Feb/March. It is still on a declining pattern but now out of the into-the-wall version we saw last month. It is weaker YoY, but VERY IMPORTANTLY, now shows an uptick in [credit granted for April.](http://web.nacm.org/cmi/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf)
The economy is weak and we won't see a great second quarter, but it's not flatlining.
The major weakness in the economy can be seen in the establishment survey, giving average hourly wages YoY having increased by 53 cents an hour. Doesn't buy you much! So there's tightness on the consumption end. However the employee-population ratio increased from 58.9 to 59.3 over the year, although it has been static for the last few months.
I see further ominous Drudge headlines about all the people not working. Well, we are going to see the retirees in our overall numbers, because all the people born through 1950 are either 65 or going to turn 65 this year. They are going to retire sooner or later. Get used to it. The household survey shows that the number of people working grew by 2.8 million YoY. That's not bad.
So far this quarter,
[rail is sticking](https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-05-06-railtraffic.aspx)to its pancake flat YoY pattern. But the economy could be picking up steam (and probably is) relative to the first quarter - we're just not going to turn in a nice large growth quarter in Q2 2015, whereas we did in 2014.
GDP in Q1 was mildly negative, which will show up later in revisions. So far it looks like this quarter will be mildly positive. Motor vehicle sales were a touch disappointing in April.
So right now, most the reports are pretty consistent with Employment - manufacturing slow or flat, services somewhat better, construction disappointing, and all things waiting on autos. As long as autos hold up ...
The establishment survey is forecasting better construction numbers coming up due to a hefty increase in employment. 32K of the 48K shown is in the
[Birth/Death adjustment](http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm), which doesn't mean that it didn't happen. Still, construction employment increased which is a good sign for May.
I think May will be better on most fronts. CMI is showing weakness, but not gathering storm clouds. A cautionary note is sounded by
[wholesale inventory/sales ratios](http://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf), but while the overall number looks worrisome, when one digs into the details it's less disturbing because a decent amount of the seeming overage is in petroleum. **I am a little concerned about grocery sales in this report - that's the line I am watching. They shouldn't have been that low in March. Maybe it will be revised up.**
I expect fracking work to start picking up this summer. That should help us.
Autos - eh, I don't know. They are beginning to look a little topped out, but maybe we'll get our second wind this summer. Construction always generates truck sales, and there is probably some incentive room.
### Wednesday, April 29, 2015
## Fed Day GDP
Well, we know the statement will be full of reassuring noises and plenty of wiggle room.
This is exactly what rail traffic implied, so I am not surprised. But the details are somewhat unpleasant - Gross Private Domestic Investment was quite weak at 14 billion. Excluding inventory builds (+30.3 & the new category of research and development (+8.3), it would have been quite negative. The inventory build isn't a surprise, but it implies future weakness to some extent. The question is, how long can oil stocks build?
The increase in PCE was less than half of that of the fourth quarter, but of course we can't continue to spend at that rate.
Exports declined, but that was expected as a strong dollar effect.
It was a bad winter for most of the country, and there is a natural bounceback. Usually. The problem is that we probably have a net weakening of the ability to consume in the private sector, as the lower fuel cost surge has somewhat run off, but natural changes to consumption patterns from high basic costs and medical insured-but-not-covered costs remain.
Therefore, growth this year remains strongly dependent on credit-heavy sectors such as autos and homes.
Later this week we will get the next CMI (B2B credit), and I am hoping for that to take a turn up. Right now, the current and future indicators are still, to use an elegant economic intellectual term, piss-poor. If you are wondering, at least that's a notch above the term of art "Stock up on Imodium" most commonly associated with recessions.
The increase in capital gains taxes really was not a good idea for a weak economy. One expects a natural slowing in investment, and we are certainly getting it.
So far freight hasn't shown a spring surge. Truck tonnage for March recouped somewhat from a dire February but stayed below peak. Rail continues quite flat.
Shale oil has been a big uplift for the US for years, and with that impetus gone from the economy, we are down to cars and houses. The strong dollar does, of course, tend to weaken manufacturing.
The consumer confidence report yesterday was rather poor. It fell more than 6 points in one month, and the weakness was centered on the job market. That should not really be surprising after CMI, because that much weakness implies a pull-back by businesses extending until they recoup their finances.
My reading on housing is that it's not that bad, so I still have some hope. April readings on retail haven't been good. Rail says we are not seeing any surge of hope and change. Consumer confidence is flashing a warning signal. I will have to wait a while to see if my bullshit theory on retail was true.
The natural term for CMI is two months, so if the low was March, then we could hope for a pick up in June. April will not be a good month.
[Advance GDP](http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp1q15_adv.pdf)for the first quarter is in at +0.2. That's annualized. Current dollar GDP is +0.1, annualized.
This is exactly what rail traffic implied, so I am not surprised. But the details are somewhat unpleasant - Gross Private Domestic Investment was quite weak at 14 billion. Excluding inventory builds (+30.3 & the new category of research and development (+8.3), it would have been quite negative. The inventory build isn't a surprise, but it implies future weakness to some extent. The question is, how long can oil stocks build?
The increase in PCE was less than half of that of the fourth quarter, but of course we can't continue to spend at that rate.
Exports declined, but that was expected as a strong dollar effect.
It was a bad winter for most of the country, and there is a natural bounceback. Usually. The problem is that we probably have a net weakening of the ability to consume in the private sector, as the lower fuel cost surge has somewhat run off, but natural changes to consumption patterns from high basic costs and medical insured-but-not-covered costs remain.
Therefore, growth this year remains strongly dependent on credit-heavy sectors such as autos and homes.
Later this week we will get the next CMI (B2B credit), and I am hoping for that to take a turn up. Right now, the current and future indicators are still, to use an elegant economic intellectual term, piss-poor. If you are wondering, at least that's a notch above the term of art "Stock up on Imodium" most commonly associated with recessions.
The increase in capital gains taxes really was not a good idea for a weak economy. One expects a natural slowing in investment, and we are certainly getting it.
So far freight hasn't shown a spring surge. Truck tonnage for March recouped somewhat from a dire February but stayed below peak. Rail continues quite flat.
Shale oil has been a big uplift for the US for years, and with that impetus gone from the economy, we are down to cars and houses. The strong dollar does, of course, tend to weaken manufacturing.
The consumer confidence report yesterday was rather poor. It fell more than 6 points in one month, and the weakness was centered on the job market. That should not really be surprising after CMI, because that much weakness implies a pull-back by businesses extending until they recoup their finances.
My reading on housing is that it's not that bad, so I still have some hope. April readings on retail haven't been good. Rail says we are not seeing any surge of hope and change. Consumer confidence is flashing a warning signal. I will have to wait a while to see if my bullshit theory on retail was true.
The natural term for CMI is two months, so if the low was March, then we could hope for a pick up in June. April will not be a good month.
### Monday, April 20, 2015
## CFNAI; Rail
This really is not a surprise.
Due to the generalized dolor indicated by CMI's B2B credit, we knew this was going to be poor.
Note the downward revisions to January and February (somewhat related to employment revisions), and the sad YoY contrast with March of last year. The three-month moving average looks better in contrast to March of last year, because it evens out the moves.
But CMI does not forecast a good April, nor has
The difference between last year and this year is that moving into Q2, we appear to be seeing growing weakness.
The current peak for this cycle is November 2014. If we arrive in June without seeing a distinct move up, the probability that we are in recession will be very high.
[CFNAI](https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index)was released for March.
Due to the generalized dolor indicated by CMI's B2B credit, we knew this was going to be poor.
Note the downward revisions to January and February (somewhat related to employment revisions), and the sad YoY contrast with March of last year. The three-month moving average looks better in contrast to March of last year, because it evens out the moves.
But CMI does not forecast a good April, nor has
[rail](https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-04-15-railtraffic.aspx)shown much sign of economic green shoot-bearing potential yet for April.On a YoY basis, rail has been flat so far this year, implying an abrupt pull-back in growth compared to Q4. This is a little concerning, because remember GDP for Q1 2014 was distinctly bad.
The difference between last year and this year is that moving into Q2, we appear to be seeing growing weakness.
The current peak for this cycle is November 2014. If we arrive in June without seeing a distinct move up, the probability that we are in recession will be very high.
### Wednesday, April 15, 2015
## Industrial Production
[Not a good report](http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm)The weakness is not so much in March's headline, which is -.6. It's in the quarter, with a downward revision to January:
ForOil and freight doesn't come up recessionary, but the concern here is that this feels more like 2006. The YoY is still +2%.The high for industrial production was in November, and when
the first quarter of 2015as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, the first quarterly decrease since the second quarter of 2009. The decline last quarter resulted from a drop in oil and gas well drilling and servicing of more than 60 percent at an annual rate and from a decrease in manufacturing production of 1.2 percent. In March, manufacturing output moved up 0.1 percent for its first monthly gain since November; however, factory output in January is now estimated to have fallen 0.6 percent, about twice the size of the previously reported decline. [these figures are updated on the graph](http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO)the decline will look worse. [Empire State rolled negative](http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html), still with great expectations. The [last Dallas survey lapsed into the negatives](https://dallasfed.org/microsites/research/surveys/tmos/index.cfm), but that was expected due to the oil slowdown. In March, the Dallas general business activity index clocked in at -17.4. [Richmond (March 24th)](https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/2015/mfg_03_24_15.cfm#tabview=tab1)was negative as well, and decidedly so, if more modestly so than Dallas. [Kansas](https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/research/indicatorsdata/mfg/pdf/2015Mar26mfg.pdf)has been quietly but steadily walking down, and turned negative in March as well.
We're getting to the point at which this should start showing up more in jobs.
While not brilliant, housing has been looking decent. Housing starts comes up tomorrow.
Until the diffusion shows up in freight, it's not a recession. So I guess we wait for April trucking and May rail - two more months.
[China's economy looks awful to me](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/). I doubt we are going to be providing them any help, and I don't think they are going to be providing us any. [China reported GDP steady at 7% for the first quarter](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/t20150415_712435.html), and while I might agree with that if I were held at gunpoint, I'd have to be sure that the gun was loaded.
The components look sick:
![](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/W020150415582727935233_r75.jpg)
![](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/W020150415572151264225_r75.jpg)
This I believe:
![](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/W020150415572151423664_r75.jpg)
[Because of this](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/t20150415_712772.html): ![](http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/PressRelease/201504/W020150415580018986688_r75.jpg)
If you read the link above thoroughly, I think you'll goggle at the "steady growth" theory. too.
### Tuesday, April 14, 2015
## Pretty Much A Sweep
Now this gets interesting. April is not looking that good.
Today we got
Note that the favorable employment gains last year were largely reflected in NFIB, so I will be watching this report carefully. Still, in general most categories are more favorable than they have been YoY..It's just that the trajectory shifted downward in March in a most unambiguous and determined way. CMI slid in February, but I didn't worry too much because NFIB was holding up. When I see both move down together, it assumes a whole lot of significance for the general economy.
I would have to be raving lunatic not to concede that economic trajectories are mostly resting on consumer spending over the next few months. So this brings us to the retail report.
I would not bet against Treasuries. Only time will tell what spring will bring, but the March retail report implies a generalized weakness.
The retail report is worrying me. The headlines you will read on this are all wrong. March, looked at individually, looks like an improvement. But it is not - if you look at March YoY against three-month YoY, we're still weakening.
Because I really don't like the March retail report, and because there is a really high month-to-month error ratio on retail sales, I am going to take the firm position that March retail is JUST WRONG, that the uptick in sales occurred late, and that March retail will be revised higher next month.
If I am wrong, we only have a few months to turn this around. In further support of the theory that I am wrong about March, I have been following lines of rather recessionary advertising trends for lower end retail.
The 2014 winter was bad also, but one saw the uptick in March. This year it looks like the economy shifted into low gear in March. Also, there will be some drag on the economy through the summer from the CA drought.
Autos and housing are holding up. They rely on credit, and when people don't have money to spend but do have steady income, credit often does hold up the economy.
Today we got
[NFIB for March](http://www.nfib.com/Portals/0/PDF/sbet/sbet201504.pdf), which showed a remarkably synchronized drop very similar to CMI's B2B credit survey for March. There was a sharp change in inventory plans. Taken as a whole, the report is not forecasting recession, just low growth. Credit is still not a problem, but reported interest rates are up although still low by normal terms.
Note that the favorable employment gains last year were largely reflected in NFIB, so I will be watching this report carefully. Still, in general most categories are more favorable than they have been YoY..It's just that the trajectory shifted downward in March in a most unambiguous and determined way. CMI slid in February, but I didn't worry too much because NFIB was holding up. When I see both move down together, it assumes a whole lot of significance for the general economy.
I would have to be raving lunatic not to concede that economic trajectories are mostly resting on consumer spending over the next few months. So this brings us to the retail report.
[Retail](http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf)is not all that hot. Autos are still good, but Easter was early this year and March retail sales should have been better as a result. They weren't. In particular, grocery sales are troublingly low, and it does not seem to be because of price drops. But this report is not recessionary either - it merely forecasts weakness and a cautious consumer environment. The hallmark of recession in this report comes when discretionary categories suddenly drop. They haven't, in part because consumers are spending a lot less money on gas. But the trajectory for retail seems to be weakening. [Inventories](http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf)are a month behind, so this report is for February. But it shows that while heavy inventories did not worsen, it appears that everyone has stocked up already. So one would *expect a growth pulse here through April.* **not**
I would not bet against Treasuries. Only time will tell what spring will bring, but the March retail report implies a generalized weakness.
The retail report is worrying me. The headlines you will read on this are all wrong. March, looked at individually, looks like an improvement. But it is not - if you look at March YoY against three-month YoY, we're still weakening.
Because I really don't like the March retail report, and because there is a really high month-to-month error ratio on retail sales, I am going to take the firm position that March retail is JUST WRONG, that the uptick in sales occurred late, and that March retail will be revised higher next month.
*Zip. Nada.* **Please note that there is no internal evidence whatsoever for my theory that the uptick occurred late in the month. NONE.** **It's possible that my theory is true, and I would like for it to be true. I would not place much personal reliance on this M_O_M theory. I am not really a depressive person, and I tend not to see the worst aspects of things.** *I have about as much evidence for this as I do for the theory that space aliens are going to come by and drop buckets of cash on us.* ****
If I am wrong, we only have a few months to turn this around. In further support of the theory that I am wrong about March, I have been following lines of rather recessionary advertising trends for lower end retail.
The 2014 winter was bad also, but one saw the uptick in March. This year it looks like the economy shifted into low gear in March. Also, there will be some drag on the economy through the summer from the CA drought.
Autos and housing are holding up. They rely on credit, and when people don't have money to spend but do have steady income, credit often does hold up the economy.
**As for prospects of any significant Fed moves up before fall, can one really believe that the Fed will kick out the economic props this summer???? This defies all logic.**
### Tuesday, April 07, 2015
## More On That CES Mid-Year Update.
This is
By quintile, it looks worse, doesn't it? The ability to save starts in the third (middle) quintile, and they lost over half of their excess income in a year. This is all the more material because of the higher deductibles and copays most are seeing for insurance!
As to access to significant care for the second quintile, it is really only in government insurance programs. In the first quintile, most get government insurance. And interestingly, the second quintile was the only group in which expenditures dropped. But the fourth quintile is the most interesting - it is important, because it accounts for an outsized amount of spending. They barely increased their spending. That's because they save, and their ability to do so was strongly impacted, and because they have been able to afford to spend more on higher quality items, and so they had room to cut back.
Looking at this, I wonder just exactly what that second low quintile was easting! They got HAMMERED.
But it explains everything about the 2014 elections, doesn't it?
Another thought-provoking table provides the shares of expense categories by income quintile:
The
Anyway, the reason I was commenting in a prior post that I have doubts about the consumer's ability to carry this expansion is that I think they are running out of money. I think most would LIKE to spend more, but they won't.
Now we don't know what is going to happen this year, and we can't, and we don't have precise figures for about three quarters of a year.
BUT: The reality is that the recent changes to health insurance have, for the majority, increased uncertainty. The natural recourse for those trying to live healthy financial lives is to try to put by a nest egg to deal with that uncertainty. When you increase savings needs and income isn't rising to allow it, expect a pullback.
This can unbend and unkink, but there's considerable underlying weakness.
[the release](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesmy.nr0.htm)to which I refer:
By quintile, it looks worse, doesn't it? The ability to save starts in the third (middle) quintile, and they lost over half of their excess income in a year. This is all the more material because of the higher deductibles and copays most are seeing for insurance!
As to access to significant care for the second quintile, it is really only in government insurance programs. In the first quintile, most get government insurance. And interestingly, the second quintile was the only group in which expenditures dropped. But the fourth quintile is the most interesting - it is important, because it accounts for an outsized amount of spending. They barely increased their spending. That's because they save, and their ability to do so was strongly impacted, and because they have been able to afford to spend more on higher quality items, and so they had room to cut back.
Looking at this, I wonder just exactly what that second low quintile was easting! They got HAMMERED.
But it explains everything about the 2014 elections, doesn't it?
Another thought-provoking table provides the shares of expense categories by income quintile:
*(We have one CPI number, two if you count the SS version, but we really need three.)*
The
[previous release](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm)shows the press from 2012 to 2013, which has information for the last several years. Income dropped from 2012 to 2013, by 2.8%. Expenditures declined less than 1%.
Anyway, the reason I was commenting in a prior post that I have doubts about the consumer's ability to carry this expansion is that I think they are running out of money. I think most would LIKE to spend more, but they won't.
Now we don't know what is going to happen this year, and we can't, and we don't have precise figures for about three quarters of a year.
BUT: The reality is that the recent changes to health insurance have, for the majority, increased uncertainty. The natural recourse for those trying to live healthy financial lives is to try to put by a nest egg to deal with that uncertainty. When you increase savings needs and income isn't rising to allow it, expect a pullback.
This can unbend and unkink, but there's considerable underlying weakness.


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# Dog Care
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*[http://www.akc.org/ The American Kennel Club]
*[http://www.akc.org/ The American Kennel Club]
*[http://www.canismajor.com/dog/fstaidk.html A simple first aid kit for dogs]
*[http://www.canismajor.com/dog/fstaidk.html A simple first aid kit for dogs]
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## Revision as of 15:52, October 28, 2012
[Dog Care merit badge worksheet](/wiki/images/7/71/Dog_Care.pdf) [, links, and cross-references to related](/wiki/index.php/Image:Pdficon_small.gif) ![ Adobe Acrobat PDF](/wiki/images/5/59/Pdficon_small.gif)
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[badges](/wiki/index.php/Merit_badges)and [awards](/wiki/index.php/Awards). [◀Prev](/wiki/index.php/Disabilities_Awareness)- [Next ▶](/wiki/index.php/Drafting)
Dog Care merit badge
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**Status:** **Created:** **Discontinued:** **BSA Advancement ID:** **Requirements revision:** **Latest pamphlet revision:**
## Contents
|“||The love and interdependence between humans and dogs has endured for thousands of years. Evidence suggests that dogs and humans started relying on each other thousands of years ago. Today, dogs are our coworkers and companions. They assist search-and-rescue teams, law enforcement officers, hunters, farmers, and people with disabilities. They also play with us and keep us company.||”|
## Dog Care merit badge requirements
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- Do the following:
- a. Briefly discuss the historical origin and domestication of the dog.
- b. Describe some common characteristics of the dogs that make up each of the seven major dog groups.
- c. Tell some specific characteristics of seven breeds of dogs (one from each major group), OR give a short history of one breed.
- Point out on a dog or a sketch at least 10 body parts. Give the correct name of each one.
- Do the following:
- a. Explain the importance of house-training, obedience training, and socialization training for your dog.
- b. Explain what "responsible pet ownership" means.
- c. Explain what issues (including temperament) must be considered when deciding on what breed of dog to get as a family pet.
- For two months, keep and care for your dog.* Maintain a log of your activities during this period that includes these items: feeding schedule, types of food used, amount fed, exercise periods, training schedule, a weekly body weight record, grooming and bathing schedules, veterinary care, if necessary, and costs. Also include a brief description of the type of housing/shelter arrangements you have for your dog.
- The activities used to fulfill the requirements for the Dog Care merit badge may not be used to help fulfill the requirements for other merit badges.
- Explain the correct way to obedience train a dog and what equipment you would need. Show with your dog any three of these commands: "come," "sit," "down," "heel," "stay," "fetch" or "get it," and "drop it."
- Do the following:
- a. Discuss the proper vaccination schedule for a dog in your area from puppyhood through adulthood.
- b. Discuss the control methods for preventing fleas, ticks, heartworms, and intestinal parasites (worms) for a dog in your area from puppyhood through adulthood.
- c. Explain the importance of dental care and tooth brushing to your pet's health.
- d. Discuss the benefits of grooming your dog's coat and nails on a regular basis.
- e. Discuss with your counselor any seasonal conditions (like hot summers, cold winters, or extreme humidity) where you live that need to be considered for your dog.
- Do the following:
- a. Explain precautions to take in handling a hurt dog.
- b. Show how to put on an emergency muzzle.
- c. Explain how to treat wounds. Explain first aid for a dog bite.
- d. Show how to put on a simple dressing and bandage the foot, body, or head of your dog.
- e. Explain what to do if a dog is hit by a car.
- f. List the things needed in every dog owner's first-aid kit.
- g. Tell the dangers of home treatment of a serious ailment.
- h. Briefly discuss the cause and method of spread, the signs and symptoms and the methods of prevention of rabies, parvovirus, distemper, and heartworms in dogs.
- Visit a veterinary hospital or an animal shelter and give a report about your visit to your counselor.
- Know the laws and ordinances involving dogs that are in force in your community.
- Learn about three career opportunities for working with dogs. Pick one and find out about the education, training, and experience required for this career, and discuss this with your counselor. Tell why this profession interests you.
| |![]()
**The** *official*source for the information shown in this article or section is: *, 2015 Edition (BSA Supply No. 33216 - SKU# 620714)* [Boy Scout Requirements](/wiki/index.php/Boy_Scout_Requirements)
The
[text](/wiki/index.php/Template:Dog_Care/req)of these requirements is locked and can only be [edited](http://www.meritbadge.org/wiki/index.php?title=Template:Dog_Care/req&action=edit)by an [administrator](/wiki/index.php/Administrator). **Please note any errors found in the above requirements on this article's** [Talk Page](/wiki/index.php/Talk:Dog_Care).
## Notes
|
|
![]()
|meritbadge.org has PDF and DOC versions of|
- Dog Care is a
[rare merit badge](/wiki/index.php/Merit_Badges_earned)with 2,948 earned in 2007!
## Requirement resources
**1**. a. [Domestication History of Dogs](http://www.petwebsite.com/dogs/dog_history.htm)
- a.
[Dog Domestication](http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/08/03/dog-domestication.html)New research shows that dog domestication may have originated in Africa.
- b.
[Dog Breeds Overview by Group and Characteristics](http://www.clivir.com/lessons/show/dog-breeds-overview-by-group-and-characteristics.html)
- c.
[Dog Breed Information](http://www.myhappypets.com/pet-health-articles/dog-breed-information.htm)
**2**. [Label Dog Anatomy Printout](http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/mammals/dog/label/anatomy/label.shtml)
**3**. a. [The Importance of Training Your Dog](http://www.artofdogtraining.com/valueoftraining.htm)
- b.
[Responsible Pet Ownership](http://www.dogsaver.org/caninecrusaders/responsible.htm)
- c.
[Breed Selector](http://www1.dogbreedinfo.com/search.htm)An online quiz to help you determine the best breed for you.
**6**. a. [Dog Owner's Guide to Vaccination](http://www.canismajor.com/dog/vaccine.html)
## Related awards
|Hobby-related awards
|
## See also
|
|
|General Merit Badge information
|
## External links
[Dog Care](http://www.aspca.org/site/PageServer?pagename=pets_dogcare)- by the ASPCA [Helpful Dog Care Tips](http://www.twyla.org/hints.htm) [The American Kennel Club](http://www.akc.org/) [A simple first aid kit for dogs](http://www.canismajor.com/dog/fstaidk.html)

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**Cloud Của Tui có gì hot?**
- Thêm Bài hát/Playlist yêu thích vào Cloud.
- Tạo Playlist riêng theo sở thích âm nhạc.
- Tự động đồng bộ nếu sử dụng một tài khoản Cloud cho nhiều thiết bị.
- Nghe nhạc Offline dễ dàng mà không sợ phải tìm kiếm Playlist để tải lại nếu thay đổi thiết bị.

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markdown:
**Cloud Của Tui có gì hot?**
- Thêm Bài hát/Playlist yêu thích vào Cloud.
- Tạo Playlist riêng theo sở thích âm nhạc.
- Tự động đồng bộ nếu sử dụng một tài khoản Cloud cho nhiều thiết bị.
- Nghe nhạc Offline dễ dàng mà không sợ phải tìm kiếm Playlist để tải lại nếu thay đổi thiết bị.
## Bình Luận

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PARA SU DIVULGACIÓN INMEDIATA
PR- 317-05
14 de agosto de 2005
EL ALCALDE BLOOMBERG HABLAR DE IMPULSAR EL CRECIMIENTO DE LA ECONOMÍA Y CREAR DE PUESTOS DE TRABAJO EN SU DISCURSO SEMANAL
A continuación se presenta el texto del discurso semanal del alcalde Bloomberg, preparado para su transmisión radial a través de 1010 WINS News Radio el domingo 14 de agosto de 2005
"Buenos días. Les habla el alcalde Mike Bloomberg.
"La economía de la Ciudad de Nueva York es fuerte, y se está fortaleciendo más aún. La tasa de desempleo en la ciudad está más baja que antes del 11 de Septiembre. Durante el último trimestre, nuestra economía creció más rápidamente que la economía de la nación. El éxito tiene usualmente una forma de aprovecharse a sí mismo; vimos eso la semana pasada cuando Weight Watchers, la compañía internacional de dietas, reubicó sus oficinas corporativas aquí, trayendo 100 nuevos puestos de trabajo adicionales con ellos.
"Una economía sana es una economía diversificada, y la forma como Nueva York depende excesivamente de Wall Street ha sido un problema durante mucho tiempo. Esa es la razón por la que nuestra Administración está trabajando arduamente para desarrollar otras industrias importantes, incluyendo el turismo, la producción cinematográfica y la manufactura. Hemos identificado a la biotecnología como otra área que está lista para crecer. Las universidades de clase mundial y los hospitales que conducen investigaciones en Nueva York, así como nuestra gran cantidad de talentos médicos y científicos, ya producen nuevas compañías de biotecnología. Sin embargo, cuando estas empiezan a crecer, a menudo se quedan sin espacio aquí y se mudan a otros lugares, llevándose puestos de trabajo con ellos.
"Es hora de revertir esa tendencia. Por esa razón develamos la semana pasada planes para un centro de biociencia de $700 millones y financiamiento privado en el este de Manhattan. Las obras de este proyecto, que producirán 4,000 empleos en el área de la construcción y 2,000 nuevos empleos permanentes, serán iniciadas a principios del año próximo. Este centro, el East River Science Park, incluirá laboratorios, oficinas y un centro de conferencias. Cuando los dos primeros edificios estén ocupados por completo, la Ciudad empezará a recibir del promotor inmobiliario $2 millones anuales en renta. Cuando sea completado, el proyecto añadirá $350 millones anuales a nuestra economía y generará cada año más de $16 millones en ingresos fiscales para la Ciudad.
"Este desarrollo se levantará en terrenos del Bellevue Medical Center actualmente ocupados, en parte, por una lavandería obsoleta del hospital. Es solo un ejemplo más de cómo nuestra Administración está trayendo inversiones privadas de muchos millones de dólares y que crean puestos de trabajo a terrenos municipales subutilizados en los cinco condados.
"El mes pasado, por ejemplo, cerramos un negocio para convertir un parqueo municipal de cinco acres en Flushing en un proyecto de $500 millones y financiamiento privado que creará tiendas, apartamentos y un cine de salas múltiples.
"En una fecha previa de este verano dimos inicio a las obras de un nuevo centro comercial en terrenos de Staten Island que pertenecían a la Ciudad; este producirá cientos de trabajos permanentes y en el área de la construcción. Las tiendas y otros comercios que están programados para establecerse en el nuevo Mercado Terminal de El Bronx (que se construye por $400 millones) crearán 2,000 empleos permanentes y serán la puerta de entrada que por mucho tiempo ha merecido la gente de El Bronx. En forma similar, el proyecto propuesto de $3,500 millones en Atlantic Yards - que también está programado para ser construido en terrenos públicos subutilizados - sería el mayor proyecto de inversión privada en la historia de Brooklyn, creando nuevas tiendas y comercios, oficinas, 4,500 apartamentos para familias de ingresos mixtos y una nueva arena deportiva.
"Para asegurar que cada una de nuestras comunidades en toda esta Ciudad comparta la prosperidad de hoy, nuestra Administración también está abriendo las puertas de la oportunidad, tanto en el sector público como en el privado, a más de nuestro creciente número de empresas que pertenecen a mujeres o personas de grupos minoritarios. Bajo mi Orden Ejecutiva no. 36, hemos recortado de dos meses a dos semanas el tiempo que toma a esas compañías completar su certificación para hacer negocios con la Ciudad; como resultado, en los últimos tres años más compañías han sido certificadas que en los cinco años anteriores. Los agentes que realizan compras en las agencias municipales también han aumentado su trabajo con las empresas de mujeres y grupos minoritarios. Y, en los cinco condados, nuestros Centros de Soluciones para Negocios (Business Solution Centers, en inglés) están ayudando a compañías emergentes a encontrar el financiamiento y trabajadores entrenados que necesitan. Es todo parte de nuestro compromiso de hacer de Nueva York una ciudad de oportunidades para todos - y realmente está produciendo resultados.
"Les habló el alcalde Mike Bloomberg. Gracias por su atención".
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CONTACTO PARA LOS MEDIOS DE DIFUSIÓN:
Edward Skyler (212) 788-2958
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Quản Trị Mạng - Mới đây, mạng xã hội Facebook đã cho ra mắt tính năng chia sẻ địa điểm. Thông thường, điều này có nghĩa rằng đã đến lúc bạn phải cài đặt lại cấu hình riêng tư theo đúng cách bạn mong muốn.
Dưới đây là cách bạn có thể giữ quyền kiểm soát từ Facebook Places bằng cách chỉnh sửa cài đặt riêng tư.
Places là gì?
Places là tính năng chia sẻ địa điểm mới của Facebook, cho phép bạn thông báo địa điểm mình đang ở với những người dùng Facebook khác. Bạn có thể chia sẻ địa điểm của mình với tất cả người dùng Facebook hay chỉ cho bạn bè của mình hoặc chỉ những người bạn muốn cho họ biết. Ngoài ra, bạn còn có thể sử dụng Places để kiểm ra bạn bè trên Facebook nếu cài đặt riêng tư của họ cho phép bạn thực hiện điều này.
Để sử dụng Places, bạn cần ứng dụng Facebook cho iPhone hoặc bạn có thể truy cập touch.facebook.com từ trình duyệt điện thoại của mình. Để sử dụng phiên bản cho Web, điện thoại của bạn phải hỗ trợ được HTML5 và điều quan trọng là Facebook Places hiện nay mới chỉ có người dùng Facebook ở Mỹ là có thể sử dụng được. Hy vọng rằng tính năng này sẽ sớm đến với tất cả người dùng trên thế giới. Tuy nhiên, trước tính năng này đến với bạn, hãy cùng tìm hiểu cách cài đặt riêng tư trong Facebook Places.
Bắt đầu với quyền riêng tư trong Places
Điều đầu tiên bạn cần làm là đăng nhập vào Facebook và chú ý tới góc bên phải trên cùng của trang, chọn Account > Privacy Settings.
Trên trang cài đặt riêng tư, kích vào Customize settings ở dưới mục Sharing on Facebook. Tại đây, bạn có thể lựa chọn cài đặt Places.
Ai sẽ thấy thông tin hiện diện của bạn?
Cài đặt đầu tiên bạn phải chỉnh sửa lại là Places I Check In và xác định ai có thể xem được thông tin về sự hiện diện của bạn - check-in - trên Facebook. Bạn sẽ thấy cài đặt này dưới mục .
Có 3 cài đặt chính trong Places I Check In. Bạn có thể đặt thông tin hiện diện của mình được hiển thị với mọi người – Everyone (tất cả người dùng Facebook có thể biết được check-in của bạn), Friends of Friends (bạn của bạn và bạn của họ có thể thấy check-in) và Friends Only (chỉ bạn bè của bạn trên Facebook mới có thể biết check-in của bạn).
Nếu bạn muốn có quyền kiểm soát nhiều hơn về cài đặt thông tin hiện diện của mình, chọn Customize ở phía cuối menu. Lựa chọn này sẽ mở ra một cửa sổ pop-up, tại đây bạn có thể cài đặt thông tin có thể chỉ bạn được xem hoặc chỉ một số người bạn trong danh sách bạn bè được xem. Ngoài ra, bạn còn có thể loại trừ một số người bằng cách điền tên họ vào mục Hide This From (một cài đặt tiện dụng khi bạn muốn loại trừ một số người như đồng nghiệp, bố mẹ hoặc những người khác để họ không thể nhìn thấy check-in của bạn mỗi khi đăng nhập). Sau khi đã tỳ biến cài đạt theo cách bạn mong muốn, kích vào Save Setting để lưu lại tất cả những gì bạn mới thực hiện.


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# tuyen tap chau tinh tri
## Xem Phim tuyen tap chau tinh tri
![ quang cao model and fashion](http://www.sharephim.com/ads/forex.jpg)
![ quang cao model and fashion](http://www.sharephim.com/ads/forex.jpg)
Lượt xem: 4031
Lượt xem: 4119
Lượt xem: 4028
Lượt xem: 4031
Lượt xem: 4273
Lượt xem: 4028
Lượt xem: 3973
Lượt xem: 3964
Lượt xem: 4222
Lượt xem: 4112
Lượt xem: 4070
Lượt xem: 3982
Lượt xem: 4031
Lượt xem: 4119
Lượt xem: 4028
Lượt xem: 4031
Lượt xem: 4273
Lượt xem: 4028
Lượt xem: 3973
Lượt xem: 3964
Lượt xem: 4222
Lượt xem: 4112
Lượt xem: 4070
Lượt xem: 3982


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Linh Chi - Hồng Sâm và Nhung hươu. Được mệnh danh là sản phẩm thượng hạng duy nhất 3 trong 1 với công thức đặc biệt được bào chế theo dạng cao cô đặc 100% với thành phần chủ yếu là tinh chất từ những tán nấm Linh Chi Hàn Quốc thượng hạng được chọn lọc hết sức kỹ càng, có bổ sung thêm 15% tinh chất Hồng Sâm Hàn Quôc 6 năm tuổi và 1% tinh chất Nhung Hươu để đạt được chất lượng và vị thơm tuyệt vời nhất. Đây cũng là phẩm vật duy nhất được sử dụng cho Triều Đình Hàn Quốc trong suốt thời kỳ phong kiến.
các bạn sẽ e ngại với thành phần của Nhung Hươu có trong sản phẩm vì cho rằng sản phẩm sẽ gây béo, tuy nhiên với hàm lượng đúng 1% tinh chất Nhung Hươu chỉ vừa đủ để bổ sung thêm các nguyên tố đa vi lượng tối cần thiết cho cơ thể con người giúp bổ khí huyết, tráng nguyên dương, ích tinh tủy, cường gân cốt. Trị các chứng hư lao, tinh thần mê muội, chóng mặt, tai ù, mắt mờ, lưng gối đau, liệt dương, hoạt tinh, tử cung hư lạnh…
Sản phẩm cao cấp này an toàn cho cả phụ nữ mang thai, phụ nữ trong thời gian cho con bú và trẻ em.
Cao Hồng Sâm - Linh Chi - Nhung Hươu sản phẩm 3 trong 1 tuyệt hảo.
**Giá Bán: Liên Hệ**

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|22 mới từ |2.240.000₫ |
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|0.0/ 0 đánh giá
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7 ngày 2 giờ trước
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Mới - Chưa VAT
BH: 24 tháng
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NHÀ PHÂN PHỐI SỐ 1 ViỆT NAM: ĐANG KHUYẾN MÃI LỚN NHẤT TRONG NĂM !!! MIỄN PHÍ NHÂN CÔNG LẮP ĐẶT.
59 lượt mua thành công
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3 giờ 5 phút trước
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BH: 12 tháng
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10 ngày 3 giờ trước
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BH: 12 tháng
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|10 lượt mua thành công
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7 ngày 34 phút trước
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Mới - Có VAT
BH: 12 tháng
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Giảm 25% cho các doanh nghiệp Mua thêm lần 2, và 15% do khách hàng cũ giới thiệu
44 lượt mua thành công
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6 ngày 22 giờ trước
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3 giờ 34 phút trước
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BH: 24 tháng
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9 ngày 2 giờ trước
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BÁO GIÁ CẠNH TRANH NHẤT
7 lượt mua thành công
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10 ngày 1 giờ trước
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Mới - Có VAT
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Đơn giá và lượng hàng tồn kho có thể thay đổi mà không báo trước. Xin vui lòng liên hệ với chúng tôi để biết thêm thông tin sản phẩm!
5 lượt mua thành công
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10 ngày 13 giờ trước
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6 ngày 3 giờ trước
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BH: 24 tháng
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Hàng chính hãng gía gốc,Khuyến mãi Lớn Hỗ Trợ Chi Phí Lắp Đặt.
1 lượt mua thành công
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9 ngày 21 giờ trước
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Mới - Chưa VAT
BH: 24 tháng
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|HCM, HN, ĐN:
Nhiều K/Mãi giá sốc, Bán lẻ bằng giá sĩ, giao hàng miễn phí tận nơi.
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Vui lòng gọi
4 giờ 31 phút trước
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Mới - Chưa VAT
BH: Không có
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G-Link chuyên phân phối, bán buôn bán lẻ,hàng chính hãng có sẵn hàng,đảm bảo chất lượng, hóa đơn VAT 10%
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Vui lòng gọi
6 ngày 22 giờ trước
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vui lòng liên hệ trực tiếp để được giá tốt.
41 lượt mua thành công
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Vui lòng gọi
1 phút trước trước
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BH: 36 tháng
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Kh/ mại T5 mua 1 bộ Camera IP Wanscam B168 SD ( Tặng 1 chuông cửa không dây Abell 601)
34 lượt mua thành công
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Hết hàng
2 ngày 1 giờ trước
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|32 lượt mua thành công
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Hết hàng
3.100.000₫
5 ngày 21 giờ trước
|
|
Mới - Có VAT
BH: 12 tháng
|
|HN, HCM:
13 lượt mua thành công
|
|
Vui lòng gọi
4 ngày 20 giờ trước
|
|
Mới - Chưa VAT
BH: 36 tháng
|
|
K/mại T12, mua 2 Camera IP,tặng 1 Máy điện thoại Panasonic KXTS-800MX
1 lượt mua thành công
|
|
Vui lòng gọi
10 ngày 2 giờ trước
|
|
Mới - Có VAT
BH: Không có
|
|HN, HCM:
|
|
Vui lòng gọi
1 giờ 6 phút trước
|
|
Mới - Có VAT
BH: 1 tháng
|
|
liên hệ để có giá đại lý
|
|
Vui lòng gọi
5 ngày 19 giờ trước
|
|
Mới - Chưa VAT
BH: 12 tháng
|
|
|
|
Vui lòng gọi
11 ngày 4 giờ trước
|
|
Mới - Có VAT
BH: Không có
|
|

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