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Tài liệu international economics theory and policy 10th global edtion by krugman
International Economics
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= more than $200 billion
= $150–200 billion
= $100–150 billion
= $50–100 billion
= $20–50 billion
= Less than $20 billion per year
= Imports
= Exports
Key
Australia and
New Zealand
Mexico
United States
Canada
Other Latin
America
Eastern Europe
Africa
Western
Europe
erchandise Trade Flows with the United States
Japan
M
China
Russia
Australia and
New Zealand
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, 2013.
Other
Asia
Japan
= more than $200 billion
= $150–200 billion
= $100–150 billion
= $50–100 billion
= $20–50 billion
= Less than $20 billion per year
= Imports
= Exports
Key
Australia and
New Zealand
Mexico
United States
Canada
Other Latin
America
Eastern Europe
Africa
Western
Europe
erchandise Trade Flows with the United States
Japan
M
China
Russia
Australia and
New Zealand
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, 2013.
Other
Asia
Japan
International Economics
Theory and Policy
Tenth Edition
GLOBAL Edition
Paul R. Krugman
Princeton University
Maurice Obstfeld
University of California, Berkeley
Marc J. Melitz
Harvard University
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■
7
Brief Contents
Contents
Preface
1Introduction
Part 1 International Trade Theory
9
23
33
42
2 World Trade: An Overview
42
3Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model
56
4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution
83
5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model
116
6 The Standard Trade Model
150
7External Economies of Scale and the International
Location of Production
177
8Firms in the Global Economy: Export Decisions,
Outsourcing, and Multinational Enterprises
196
Part 2 International Trade Policy
9 The Instruments of Trade Policy
238
238
10 The Political Economy of Trade Policy
268
11 Trade Policy in Developing Countries
307
12 Controversies in Trade Policy
322
Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics
345
13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments
345
14Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
An Asset Approach
374
15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
411
16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
445
17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
483
18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention
527
Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy
570
19 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview
570
20 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis
629
21 Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro
666
22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform
702
7
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8
Brief Contents
Mathematical Postscripts
745
Postscript to Chapter 5: The Factor-Proportions Model....................................................... 745
Postscript to Chapter 6: The Trading World Economy.......................................................... 749
Postscript to Chapter 8: The Monopolistic Competition Model............................................ 757
Postscript to Chapter 20: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification............. 759
Index
767
Credits
785
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Contents
Preface ................................................................................................................................ 23
1
Introduction
33
What Is International Economics About?.............................................................................. 35
The Gains from Trade ............................................................................................................ 36
The Pattern of Trade .............................................................................................................. 37
How Much Trade? .................................................................................................................. 37
Balance of Payments............................................................................................................... 38
Exchange Rate Determination................................................................................................ 38
International Policy Coordination .......................................................................................... 39
The International Capital Market........................................................................................... 40
International Economics: Trade and Money.......................................................................... 40
Part 1 International Trade Theory
42
2
World Trade: An Overview
42
Who Trades with Whom?...................................................................................................... 42
Size Matters: The Gravity Model............................................................................................ 43
Using the Gravity Model: Looking for Anomalies.................................................................. 45
Impediments to Trade: Distance, Barriers, and Borders.......................................................... 46
The Changing Pattern of World Trade.................................................................................. 48
Has the World Gotten Smaller?............................................................................................... 48
What Do We Trade?................................................................................................................ 50
Service Offshoring................................................................................................................... 51
Do Old Rules Still Apply?..................................................................................................... 53
Summary.............................................................................................................................. 54
3
Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model
56
The Concept of Comparative Advantage ............................................................................... 57
A One-Factor Economy........................................................................................................ 58
Relative Prices and Supply...................................................................................................... 60
Trade in a One-Factor World................................................................................................ 61
Determining the Relative Price after Trade ............................................................................. 62
box:
Comparative Advantage in Practice: The Case of Babe Ruth......................................... 65
The Gains from Trade............................................................................................................. 66
A Note on Relative Wages....................................................................................................... 67
box: The Losses from Nontrade............................................................................................ 68
Misconceptions about Comparative Advantage...................................................................... 69
Productivity and Competitiveness........................................................................................... 69
box:
Do Wages Reflect Productivity?.................................................................................... 70
The Pauper Labor Argument.................................................................................................. 70
Exploitation............................................................................................................................ 71
Comparative Advantage with Many Goods............................................................................ 72
Setting Up the Model ............................................................................................................. 72
9
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10Contents
Relative Wages and Specialization........................................................................................... 72
Determining the Relative Wage in the Multigood Model........................................................ 74
Adding Transport Costs and Nontraded Goods ..................................................................... 76
Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Model.......................................................................... 77
Summary.............................................................................................................................. 80
4
Specific Factors and Income Distribution
83
The Specific Factors Model .................................................................................................. 84
box: What Is a Specific Factor?............................................................................................ 85
Assumptions of the Model ..................................................................................................... 85
Production Possibilities........................................................................................................... 86
Prices, Wages, and Labor Allocation....................................................................................... 89
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income ...................................................................... 93
International Trade in the Specific Factors Model................................................................. 95
Income Distribution and the Gains from Trade...................................................................... 96
The Political Economy of Trade: A Preliminary View ........................................................... 99
Income Distribution and Trade Politics................................................................................. 100
Trade and Unemployment............................................................................... 100
International Labor Mobility.............................................................................................. 102
case study: Wage Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration .......................................... 104
case study: Foreign Workers: The Story of the GCC........................................................ 105
Summary............................................................................................................................ 108
Appendix: Further Details on Specific Factors .................................................................... 112
case study:
Marginal and Total Product.................................................................................................. 112
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income .................................................................... 113
5
Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model
116
Model of a Two-Factor Economy........................................................................................ 117
Prices and Production........................................................................................................... 117
Choosing the Mix of Inputs.................................................................................................. 121
Factor Prices and Goods Prices ............................................................................................ 122
Resources and Output........................................................................................................... 124
Effects of International Trade between Two-Factor Economies ........................................... 126
Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade ............................................................................... 126
Trade and the Distribution of Income .................................................................................. 128
case study: North-South Trade and Income Inequality ..................................................... 129
case study: Skill-Biased Technological Change and Income Inequality ............................. 131
Factor-Price Equalization ..................................................................................................... 134
Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model ............................................................ 135
Trade in Goods as a Substitute for Trade in Factors: Factor Content of Trade .................... 136
Patterns of Exports between Developed and Developing Countries ..................................... 139
Implications of the Tests....................................................................................................... 141
Summary............................................................................................................................ 142
Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Production Decisions ...................................... 146
Choice of Technique............................................................................................................. 146
Goods Prices and Factor Prices ............................................................................................ 147
More on Resources and Output............................................................................................ 149
6
The Standard Trade Model
150
A Standard Model of a Trading Economy........................................................................... 151
Production Possibilities and Relative Supply......................................................................... 151
Relative Prices and Demand ................................................................................................. 152
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Contents
11
The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade .......................................................... 155
Determining Relative Prices.................................................................................................. 156
Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS curve.......................................................................... 156
Growth and the Production Possibility Frontier.................................................................... 158
World Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade..................................................................... 158
International Effects of Growth............................................................................................ 161
case study: Has the Growth of Newly Industrializing Countries
Hurt Advanced Nations?................................................................................................. 161
Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD........................................ 164
Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff................................................................... 164
Effects of an Export Subsidy................................................................................................. 165
Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses?................................... 166
International Borrowing and Lending.................................................................................. 167
Intertemporal Production Possibilities and Trade.................................................................. 167
The Real Interest Rate........................................................................................................... 168
Intertemporal Comparative Advantage................................................................................. 170
Summary............................................................................................................................ 170
Appendix: More on Intertemporal Trade............................................................................. 174
7
External Economies of Scale and the International
Location of Production
177
Economies of Scale and International Trade: An Overview.................................................. 178
Economies of Scale and Market Structure........................................................................... 179
The Theory of External Economies..................................................................................... 180
Specialized Suppliers.......................................................................................................... 180
Labor Market Pooling........................................................................................................ 181
Knowledge Spillovers.......................................................................................................... 182
External Economies and Market Equilibrium....................................................................... 183
External Economies and International Trade....................................................................... 184
External Economies, Output, and Prices............................................................................... 184
External Economies and the Pattern of Trade....................................................................... 185
box: Holding the World Together........................................................................................ 187
Trade and Welfare with External Economies......................................................................... 188
Dynamic Increasing Returns................................................................................................. 189
Interregional Trade and Economic Geography..................................................................... 190
box: Tinseltown Economics................................................................................................. 192
Summary............................................................................................................................ 193
8
Firms in the Global Economy: Export Decisions,
Outsourcing, and Multinational Enterprises
196
The Theory of Imperfect Competition................................................................................. 197
Monopoly: A Brief Review................................................................................................... 198
Monopolistic Competition.................................................................................................... 200
Monopolistic Competition and Trade.................................................................................. 205
The Effects of Increased Market Size.................................................................................... 205
Gains from an Integrated Market: A Numerical Example..................................................... 206
The Significance of Intra-Industry Trade.............................................................................. 210
case study: The Emergence of the Turkish Automotive Industry ....................................... 212
Firm Responses to Trade: Winners, Losers, and Industry Performance................................ 213
Performance Differences across Producers............................................................................ 214
The Effects of Increased Market Size.................................................................................... 216
Trade Costs and Export Decisions....................................................................................... 217
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12Contents
Dumping............................................................................................................................. 220
case study: Antidumping as Protectionism........................................................................ 221
Multinationals and Outsourcing.......................................................................................... 222
case study: Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment Flows Around the World...................... 222
The Firm’s Decision Regarding Foreign Direct Investment................................................... 226
Outsourcing.......................................................................................................................... 227
Shipping Jobs Overseas? Offshoring and Unemployment
in the United States........................................................................................................ 229
case study:
Consequences of Multinationals and Foreign Outsourcing................................................... 231
Summary............................................................................................................................ 232
Appendix: Determining Marginal Revenue.......................................................................... 237
Part 2 International Trade Policy
238
9
The Instruments of Trade Policy
238
Basic Tariff Analysis.......................................................................................................... 238
Supply, Demand, and Trade in a Single Industry.................................................................. 239
Effects of a Tariff.................................................................................................................. 241
Measuring the Amount of Protection................................................................................... 242
Costs and Benefits of a Tariff............................................................................................. 244
Consumer and Producer Surplus........................................................................................... 244
Measuring the Costs and Benefits......................................................................................... 246
box: Tariffs for the Long Haul............................................................................................ 248
Other Instruments of Trade Policy...................................................................................... 249
Export Subsidies: Theory...................................................................................................... 249
case study:
Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy............................................................ 250
Import Quotas: Theory......................................................................................................... 252
case study: An Import Quota in Practice: U.S. Sugar....................................................... 253
Voluntary Export Restraints................................................................................................. 256
case study: A Voluntary Export Restraint in Practice....................................................... 256
Local Content Requirements............................................................................................... 257
box: Bridging the Gap........................................................................................................ 258
Other Trade Policy Instruments............................................................................................ 259
The Effects of Trade Policy: A Summary............................................................................ 259
Summary............................................................................................................................ 260
Appendix: Tariffs and Import Quotas in the Presence of Monopoly..................................... 264
The Model with Free Trade................................................................................................... 264
The Model with a Tariff........................................................................................................ 265
The Model with an Import Quota......................................................................................... 266
Comparing a Tariff and a Quota........................................................................................... 266
10
The Political Economy of Trade Policy
268
The Case for Free Trade..................................................................................................... 269
Free Trade and Efficiency...................................................................................................... 269
Additional Gains from Free Trade........................................................................................ 270
Rent Seeking......................................................................................................................... 271
Political Argument for Free Trade......................................................................................... 271
case study: The Gains from 1992...................................................................................... 272
National Welfare Arguments against Free Trade................................................................. 274
The Terms of Trade Argument for a Tariff........................................................................... 274
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Contents
13
The Domestic Market Failure Argument against Free Trade................................................. 275
How Convincing Is the Market Failure Argument?............................................................... 277
Income Distribution and Trade Policy................................................................................. 278
Electoral Competition........................................................................................................... 279
Collective Action................................................................................................................... 280
box: Politicians for Sale: Evidence from the 1990s............................................................... 281
Modeling the Political Process............................................................................................... 282
Who Gets Protected?............................................................................................................. 282
International Negotiations and Trade Policy....................................................................... 284
The Advantages of Negotiation............................................................................................ 285
International Trade Agreements: A Brief History................................................................. 286
The Uruguay Round............................................................................................................. 288
Trade Liberalization.............................................................................................................. 288
Administrative Reforms: From the GATT to the WTO......................................................... 289
Benefits and Costs................................................................................................................. 290
box: Settling a Dispute—and Creating One........................................................................ 291
case study: The Salmon War............................................................................................ 292
The Doha Disappointment.................................................................................................. 293
box: Do Agricultural Subsidies Hurt the Third World?........................................................ 294
Preferential Trading Agreements........................................................................................... 295
Free Trade Area versus Customs Union....................................................................... 297
Do Trade Preferences Have Appeal?........................................................................... 298
case study: Trade Diversion in South America.................................................................. 299
Summary............................................................................................................................ 300
Appendix: Proving that the Optimum Tariff Is Positive........................................................ 304
box:
box:
Demand and Supply.............................................................................................................. 304
The Tariff and Prices............................................................................................................. 304
The Tariff and Domestic Welfare.......................................................................................... 305
11
Trade Policy in Developing Countries
307
Import-Substituting Industrialization.................................................................................. 308
The Infant Industry Argument.............................................................................................. 309
Promoting Manufacturing Through Protection..................................................................... 310
case study: Mexico Abandons Import-Substituting Industrialization................................. 312
Results of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems of Import-Substituting Industrialization....... 313
Trade Liberalization since 1985........................................................................................... 314
Trade and Growth: Takeoff in Asia..................................................................................... 316
box: India’s Boom............................................................................................................... 319
Summary............................................................................................................................ 319
12
Controversies in Trade Policy
322
Sophisticated Arguments for Activist Trade Policy.............................................................. 323
Technology and Externalities................................................................................................ 323
Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Policy................................................................ 325
box: A Warning from Intel’s Founder.................................................................................. 328
case study: When the Chips Were Up............................................................................... 329
Globalization and Low-Wage Labor.................................................................................... 331
The Anti-Globalization Movement....................................................................................... 331
Trade and Wages Revisited.................................................................................................... 332
Labor Standards and Trade Negotiations.............................................................................. 334
Environmental and Cultural Issues....................................................................................... 335
The WTO and National Independence.................................................................................. 335
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14Contents
case study: A Tragedy in Bangladesh................................................................................ 336
Globalization and the Environment...................................................................................... 337
Globalization, Growth, and Pollution................................................................................... 338
The Problem of “Pollution Havens”...................................................................................... 339
The Carbon Tariff Dispute................................................................................................... 341
Summary............................................................................................................................ 342
Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics
345
13
National Income Accounting and the Balance
of Payments
345
The National Income Accounts........................................................................................... 347
National Product and National Income................................................................................ 348
Capital Depreciation and International Transfers................................................................. 349
Gross Domestic Product....................................................................................................... 349
National Income Accounting for an Open Economy............................................................. 350
Consumption........................................................................................................................ 350
Investment............................................................................................................................. 350
Government Purchases.......................................................................................................... 351
The National Income Identity for an Open Economy........................................................... 351
An Imaginary Open Economy............................................................................................... 352
The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness................................................................... 352
Saving and the Current Account........................................................................................... 355
Private and Government Saving............................................................................................ 356
box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit............................................................................ 357
The Balance of Payments Accounts..................................................................................... 358
Examples of Paired Transactions.......................................................................................... 359
The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity.................................................................. 361
The Current Account, Once Again........................................................................................ 361
The Capital Account............................................................................................................. 362
The Financial Account.......................................................................................................... 363
Net Errors and Omissions..................................................................................................... 364
Official Reserve Transactions................................................................................................ 364
case study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor................................ 366
Summary............................................................................................................................ 369
14
Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
An Asset Approach
374
Exchange Rates and International Transactions.................................................................. 375
Domestic and Foreign Prices................................................................................................. 376
Exchange Rates and Relative Prices...................................................................................... 377
The Foreign Exchange Market............................................................................................ 378
The Actors............................................................................................................................ 378
box:
Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars....................................................... 379
Characteristics of the Market................................................................................................ 380
Spot Rates and Forward Rates.............................................................................................. 382
Foreign Exchange Swaps....................................................................................................... 383
Futures and Options............................................................................................................. 383
The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets............................................................................ 384
Assets and Asset Returns...................................................................................................... 384
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Contents
box:
15
Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia...................................................... 385
Risk and Liquidity................................................................................................................ 387
Interest Rates........................................................................................................................ 388
Exchange Rates and Asset Returns....................................................................................... 389
A Simple Rule....................................................................................................................... 390
Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market............................................... 392
Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market...................................................................... 393
Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition................................................................. 393
How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect
Expected Returns............................................................................................................. 394
The Equilibrium Exchange Rate........................................................................................... 395
Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium..................................................................... 398
The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate.................................. 398
The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate................................... 399
case study: What Explains the Carry Trade?.................................................................... 400
Summary............................................................................................................................ 402
Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity......................................... 408
15
Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
411
Money Defined: A Brief Review.......................................................................................... 412
Money as a Medium of Exchange......................................................................................... 412
Money as a Unit of Account................................................................................................. 412
Money as a Store of Value.................................................................................................... 413
What Is Money?.................................................................................................................... 413
How the Money Supply Is Determined................................................................................. 413
The Demand for Money by Individuals................................................................................ 414
Expected Return.................................................................................................................... 414
Risk....................................................................................................................................... 415
Liquidity............................................................................................................................... 415
Aggregate Money Demand.................................................................................................. 415
The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply
and Demand................................................................................................................... 417
Equilibrium in the Money Market........................................................................................ 417
Interest Rates and the Money Supply.................................................................................... 419
Output and the Interest Rate................................................................................................. 420
The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run............................................... 421
Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate.................................................... 421
U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate...................................................... 423
Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate............................................... 424
Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run......................................... 426
Money and Money Prices...................................................................................................... 426
The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes................................................................ 427
Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels...................................................... 428
Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run................................................................... 429
Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics............................................................................... 430
Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility................................................. 430
box:
Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe............................................. 432
Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate.................................................. 433
Exchange Rate Overshooting................................................................................................ 435
case study: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation? The Implications
of Inflation Targeting..................................................................................................... 437
Summary............................................................................................................................ 440
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16Contents
16
Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
445
The Law of One Price......................................................................................................... 446
Purchasing Power Parity..................................................................................................... 447
The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price..................................................... 447
Absolute PPP and Relative PPP............................................................................................ 448
A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP.............................................................. 449
The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach....................................................... 449
Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP.......................................................................... 451
The Fisher Effect................................................................................................................... 452
Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price........................................................ 455
Explaining the Problems with PPP..................................................................................... 457
Trade Barriers and Nontradables.......................................................................................... 457
Departures from Free Competition....................................................................................... 458
Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement..................................... 459
box: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price.......................................................... 459
PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run........................................................................... 462
case study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries........................................... 463
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange
Rates............................................................................................................................. 464
The Real Exchange Rate....................................................................................................... 465
Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate..................................................... 467
box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian
Duty-Free Shops............................................................................................................ 467
Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium.............................................. 470
International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate................................... 472
Real Interest Parity............................................................................................................. 473
Summary............................................................................................................................ 475
Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under
the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach........................................................................... 480
17
Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
483
Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy.................................................. 484
Determinants of Consumption Demand............................................................................... 484
Determinants of the Current Account.................................................................................. 485
How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account............................................ 486
How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account............................................. 487
The Equation of Aggregate Demand................................................................................... 487
The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand................................................................. 487
Real Income and Aggregate Demand.................................................................................... 488
How Output Is Determined in the Short Run....................................................................... 489
Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule......................................... 490
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium............................................... 490
Deriving the DD Schedule..................................................................................................... 491
Factors that Shift the DD Schedule....................................................................................... 491
Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule............................................ 494
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium.................................................. 495
Deriving the AA Schedule..................................................................................................... 496
Factors that Shift the AA Schedule........................................................................................ 497
Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA
Schedules Together......................................................................................................... 498
Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy............................................................. 500
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Contents
17
Monetary Policy.................................................................................................................... 500
Fiscal Policy.......................................................................................................................... 501
Policies to Maintain Full Employment.................................................................................. 502
Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation.................................................... 503
Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy................................................................. 504
A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply......................................................................... 505
Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply................................................... 506
A Permanent Fiscal Expansion............................................................................................. 507
Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account............................................................... 509
Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics........................................ 510
The J-Curve.......................................................................................................................... 510
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation.......................................................................... 512
The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics.............................................. 513
The Liquidity Trap.............................................................................................................. 513
case study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier?........................................... 516
Summary............................................................................................................................ 517
Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand............................................... 522
Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates
of Trade Elasticities....................................................................................................... 524
18
Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
Intervention
527
Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?..................................................................................... 528
Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply................................................................ 529
The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply...................................................... 529
Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply......................................................... 531
Sterilization........................................................................................................................... 532
The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply................................................................. 532
How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate.................................................................. 533
Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate.................................. 534
Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate................................................... 534
A Diagrammatic Analysis..................................................................................................... 535
Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate............................................................... 536
Monetary Policy.................................................................................................................... 537
Fiscal Policy.......................................................................................................................... 538
Changes in the Exchange Rate.............................................................................................. 539
Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes..................................................... 540
Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight................................................................... 541
Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention..................................................................... 544
Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention.................... 544
case study:
Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland................. 545
Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability.................... 547
The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability......................... 547
Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention................................................................. 549
Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System.............................................................. 550
The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard................................................................... 550
The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center................................................................... 551
The Gold Standard.............................................................................................................. 552
The Mechanics of a Gold Standard...................................................................................... 552
Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard.................................................... 552
Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard..................................................................... 553
The Bimetallic Standard........................................................................................................ 554
The Gold Exchange Standard............................................................................................... 554
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18Contents
case study: The Demand for International Reserves.......................................................... 555
Summary............................................................................................................................ 559
Appendix 1: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market with Imperfect
Asset Substitutability..................................................................................................... 564
Demand................................................................................................................................ 564
Supply................................................................................................................................... 565
Equilibrium........................................................................................................................... 565
Appendix 2: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises...................................................... 567
Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy
570
19
International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview
570
Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy............................................................. 571
Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability............................................... 572
External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account.............................................. 573
box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand......................................... 575
Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma........................... 579
International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914.......................... 580
Origins of the Gold Standard................................................................................................ 580
External Balance under the Gold Standard........................................................................... 581
The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism....................................................................................... 581
The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality................................................ 582
Internal Balance under the Gold Standard............................................................................ 583
case study: Gold Smuggling and the Birth of the UAE Dirham......................................... 584
The Interwar Years, 1918–1939........................................................................................... 585
The Fleeting Return to Gold................................................................................................. 585
International Economic Disintegration................................................................................. 586
case study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression............................ 587
The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund....................................... 588
Goals and Structure of the IMF........................................................................................... 589
Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Financial Flows............................................... 590
Speculative Capital Flows and Crises.................................................................................... 591
Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance................................ 592
Maintaining Internal Balance................................................................................................ 592
Maintaining External Balance............................................................................................... 594
Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies.................................................. 594
The External Balance Problem of the United States under Bretton Woods........................... 596
case study: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Inflation, and
the Transition to Floating Rates..................................................................................... 597
The Mechanics of Imported Inflation................................................................................... 598
Assessment............................................................................................................................ 599
The Case for Floating Exchange Rates................................................................................ 600
Monetary Policy Autonomy.................................................................................................. 600
Symmetry.............................................................................................................................. 601
Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers.............................................................................. 602
Exchange Rates and External Balance.................................................................................. 604
case study: The First Years of Floating Rates, 1973–1990................................................ 604
Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate...................................................... 608
case study: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy........................................... 609
What Has Been Learned since 1973?................................................................................... 615
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Contents
19
Monetary Policy Autonomy.................................................................................................. 615
Symmetry.............................................................................................................................. 616
The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer..................................................................... 617
External Balance................................................................................................................... 617
The Problem of Policy Coordination..................................................................................... 618
Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries?.......................................... 618
Summary............................................................................................................................ 619
Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures.......................................................... 626
20
Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis
629
The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade............................................... 630
Three Types of Gain from Trade........................................................................................... 630
Risk Aversion........................................................................................................................ 632
Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade...................................... 632
The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity......................................................... 633
International Banking and the International Capital Market............................................... 634
The Structure of the International Capital Market............................................................... 634
Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading................................................................ 635
The Shadow Banking System................................................................................................ 637
Banking and Financial Fragility.......................................................................................... 637
The Problem of Bank Failure................................................................................................ 637
Government Safeguards against Financial Instability........................................................... 640
Moral Hazard and the Problem of “Too Big to Fail”............................................................ 642
box: The Simple Algebra of Moral Hazard......................................................................... 643
The Challenge of Regulating International Banking............................................................ 644
The Financial Trilemma........................................................................................................ 644
International Regulatory Cooperation through 2007............................................................ 646
case study: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009...................................................... 647
box: Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines........................................ 650
International Regulatory Initiatives after the Global Financial Crisis................................... 652
How Well Have International Financial Markets Allocated Capital and Risk?..................... 654
The Extent of International Portfolio Diversification........................................................... 654
The Extent of Intertemporal Trade....................................................................................... 656
Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials................................................................................ 657
The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market................................................................... 657
Summary............................................................................................................................ 661
21
Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro
666
How the European Single Currency Evolved........................................................................ 668
What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation?........................................................... 668
The European Monetary System, 1979–1998........................................................................ 669
German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS............................... 670
Market Integration Initiatives............................................................................................... 671
European Economic and Monetary Union........................................................................... 672
The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone................................................................. 673
The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact............................. 673
The European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.................................................................. 674
The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism............................................................................... 675
The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas............................................................................ 675
Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange
Rate Area: The GG Schedule............................................................................................ 676
Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange
Rate Area: The LL Schedule............................................................................................ 678
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20Contents
The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules
Together........................................................................................................................... 680
What Is an Optimum Currency Area?................................................................................... 682
Other Important Considerations........................................................................................... 682
case study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?.......................................................... 683
The Euro Crisis and the Future of EMU............................................................................. 687
Origins of the Crisis.............................................................................................................. 687
Self-Fulfilling Government Default and the “Doom Loop”.................................................. 692
A Broader Crisis and Policy Responses................................................................................. 694
ECB Outright Monetary Transactions.................................................................................. 695
The Future of EMU.............................................................................................................. 696
Summary............................................................................................................................ 697
22
Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform
702
Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy............................................................ 703
The Gap between Rich and Poor........................................................................................... 703
Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time?............................................................... 704
Structural Features of Developing Countries....................................................................... 706
Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt............................................................................ 709
The Economics of Financial Inflows to Developing Countries............................................. 709
The Problem of Default........................................................................................................ 711
Alternative Forms of Financial Inflow.................................................................................. 713
The Problem of “Original Sin”.............................................................................................. 714
The Debt Crisis of the 1980s................................................................................................. 716
Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis............................................................... 717
East Asia: Success and Crisis.............................................................................................. 720
The East Asian Economic Miracle........................................................................................ 720
Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated Such High Levels
of International Reserves?.............................................................................................. 721
box:
Asian Weaknesses.................................................................................................................. 723
box:
What Did East Asia Do Right?................................................................................... 724
The Asian Financial Crisis.................................................................................................... 725
Lessons of Developing-Country Crises................................................................................ 726
Reforming the World’s Financial “Architecture”.................................................................. 728
Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime........................................ 729
“Prophylactic” Measures....................................................................................................... 730
Coping with Crisis................................................................................................................. 731
case study: China’s Pegged Currency................................................................................ 732
Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income:
Is Geography Destiny?.................................................................................................... 735
box: Capital Paradoxes...................................................................................................... 736
Summary............................................................................................................................ 740
Mathematical Postscripts
745
Postscript to Chapter 5: The Factor-Proportions Model....................................................... 745
Factor Prices and Costs......................................................................................................... 745
Goods Prices and Factor Prices............................................................................................. 747
Factor Supplies and Outputs................................................................................................. 748
Postscript to Chapter 6: The Trading World Economy......................................................... 749
Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium........................................................................................ 749
Supply, Demand, and the Stability of Equilibrium................................................................ 751
Effects of Changes in Supply and Demand........................................................................... 753
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Contents
21
Economic Growth................................................................................................................. 753
A Transfer of Income............................................................................................................ 754
A Tariff................................................................................................................................. 755
Postscript to Chapter 8: The Monopolistic Competition Model............................................ 757
Postscript to Chapter 20: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification............. 759
An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio............................................................... 759
A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio........................................................... 760
The Effects of Changing Rates of Return............................................................................. 762
Index
767
Credits
785
Online Appendices (www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/krugman)
Appendix A to Chapter 6: International Transfers of Income and the Terms of Trade
The Transfer Problem
Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade
Presumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of Transfers
Appendix B to Chapter 6: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves
Deriving a Country’s Offer Curve
International Equilibrium
Appendix A to Chapter 9: Tariff Analysis in General Equilibrium
A Tariff in a Small Country
A Tariff in a Large Country
Appendix A to Chapter 17: The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA Model
Appendix A to Chapter 18: The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
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Điểm G là điểm nhạy cảm nhất của các chị em phụ nữ. Tuy nhiên để kích thích nó không phải chuyện đơn giản, nếu bạn không có kỹ thuật và kinh nghiệm nhất định, bạn sẽ gặp phải khó khăn khi kích thích điểm G, không những bạn tình của bạn không đạt được khoái cảm mà có khi còn bị đau rát âm đạo, gây nên các bênh phụ khoa nguy hiểm.
Với việc kích thích âm đạo bằng máy massage giống phim Nhật bạn sẽ không còn phải lo lắng về vấn đề đó nữa, chỉ cần khởi động máy, chọn chế độ rung thích hợp mọi chuyện còn lại sextoy này sẽ giúp bạn hoàn thành nốt. Đảm bảo âm đạo của cô ấy không chảy nước lênh láng, chúng tôi sẽ hoàn trả lại tiền.
Thiết kế vô cùng độc đáo với 1 chiếc đầu phụ có kiểu dáng mới lạ. Có lẽ không cần nói nhiều về đầu phụ này, chỉ cần nhìn và tưởng tượng các đường xoắn ốc như mũi khoan xoáy sâu, đục khoét mọi điểm nóng trong L….đang ướt nhẹp đó.
Và cuối cùng, khi đã lút cán, sướng làm sao khi 1 chiếc lưỡi với vô số gai sẽ cọ xát, liếm lấy liếm để mép âm đạo, hột le. Đây chính là máy massage kích thích điểm G thần thánh nhất mà bạn phải có khi làm tình hay thủ dâm.. Điểm cộng nữa cho đầu phụ này đó là được làm bằng silicon cao cấp nên mềm dẻo, an toàn, hoàn toàn yên tâm khi sử dụng.
Vậy nên ngay bây giờ, đừng chần chừ nữa mà hãy gọi – nhắn tin – zalo ngay cho chúng tôi theo hotline
**0938.41.81.61** để được tư vấn, chia sẻ bí quyết kích thích âm đạo bằng máy massage giống phim Nhật.

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# Tủ lạnh UDS 30 FAR-1 (1Door)
|Kiểu||Làm mát trực tiếp|
|Dung tích||705 lít|
|Kích thước||850 x 750 x 1900 (mm)|
|Trọng lượng||98 Kg|
|Điều khiển||Kĩ thuật số|
|Chất liệu||Thép không gỉ cao cấp|
|Nhiệt độ||-5 đến -1 độ C|**Loại làm lạnh tủ 2 cửa** ![ 2 ngăn mát](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2cua-2mat.jpg)
[Clear selection](#reset) [So sánh](https://thietbihanquoc.vn?action=yith-woocompare-add-product&id=4754)
# Tiện ích tủ lạnh
![ tiện ích tủ lạnh nhà hàng 1](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/1.jpg)
**BỘ ĐIỀU KHIỂN KĨ THUẬT SỐ**
Bộ điều khiển nhiệt độ kỹ thuật số liên tục theo dõi các mức nhiệt độ và độ ẩm để duy trì nhiệt độ bảo quản tối ưu nhất của thực phẩm.
![ tiện ích tủ lạnh nhà hàng 2](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2.jpg)
**HỆ THỐNG TẢN NHIỆT TỐT NHẤT**
Tủ lạnh có một hệ thống làm mát gián tiếp để duy trì sự phân bố nhiệt độ đồng đều và môi trường không có đóng tuyết. Hệ thống sự luân chuyển không khí cưỡng bức ngăn cản sự hình thành băng ở hai bên và nhanh chóng phục hồi nhiệt độ bên trong sau khi cửa mở.
![ tủ lạnh bếp nhà hàng](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/3.jpg)
**ĐÈN SÁNG GẤP 2 LẦN**
Nó cung cấp ánh sáng bên trong đặc biệt và tiết kiệm năng lượng so với huỳnh quang truyền thống. Tiết kiệm năng lượng bằng cách sản xuất ít nhiệt hơn, đồng thời tối đa hoá khả năng hiển thị. EVERZEN sáng hơn gấp hai lần so với trước đây, không chỉ làm các vật dụng được giữ sâu trong tủ lạnh dễ nhìn thấy hơn và thuận tiện hơn để đạt được mà còn cho một cái nhìn hiện đại, sang trọng hơn.
![ chân tủ lạnh bằng bánh xe](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/4.jpg)
**DỄ DÀNG DI CHUYỂN**
Tủ lạnh đi kèm với 4 bánh xe xoay chuyển tuyệt vời cho di chuyển các đơn vị khi làm sạch và rất hữu ích. Và cộng thêm, vít bổ sung được áp dụng cho các mô hình EVERZEN để duy trì sự cân bằng trên mặt đất.
![ kiểu tay cầm tủ lạnh công nghiệp](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/5.jpg)
**TAY KÉO CỬA THIẾT KẾ THANH LỊCH**
EVERZEN cũng được trang bị một số tính năng cung cấp cho người tiêu dùng sự tiện lợi tối đa, chẳng hạn như tính năng Easy Open Handle (mở dễ dàng) mới, được thiết kế tiện lợi hơn.
![ tính năng đặc biệt tủ lạnh công nghiệp](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/6.jpg)
**CÔNG NGHỆ POLYURETHANE TRỌN GÓI**
Polyurethane đóng một vai trò quan trọng trong việc giữ cho thực phẩm mát lạnh và cách nhiệt trong khi nó đi qua chuỗi cung ứng. Từ vận chuyển và chế biến đến giao hàng và lưu trữ, polyurethane giúp giữ thực phẩm luôn được tươi mát mỗi bước của cuộc hành trình.
![ hệ thống cảnh báo tủ lạnh](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/7.jpg)
**CẢNH BÁO (ALARM)**
Tủ lạnh công nghiệp cung cấp một tín hiệu cảnh báo sẽ báo động nếu để tủ mở cửa trong một khoảng thời gian dài. Báo thức sẽ báo động mỗi vài giây cho đến khi cánh cửa được đóng đúng cách. Báo thức sẽ hữu ích nếu bạn không biết rằng bạn đã không đóng cửa đúng mức.
![ tủ lạnh nhà hàng](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/8.jpg)
**NGĂN ĐỰNG CHAI LỌ**
Nơi để lưu trữ đồ uống có kích thước lớn, chai cao và các loại thực phẩm. EVERZEN giải quyết vấn đề tiến thoái lưỡng nan vĩnh cửu với một mảng ngăn bên trong tủ lạnh. Một nơi dành cho mọi thứ giúp mọi người vui vẻ.
![ tiện ích tủ lạnh bếp nhà hàng](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/9.jpg)
**TỦ BÀN TREO CHẤT LƯỢNG CAO**
Ngoại thất bằng thép không gỉ (bên ngoài thép mạ kẽm, đáy) và xây dựng nội thất không gây rỉ, vết mài mòn và vết xước ít hơn và đảm bảo sự sạch sẽ và tuổi thọ của sản phẩm.
![ tủ lạnh bếp công nghiệp](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/10.jpg)
**THIẾT KẾ AN TOÀN**
Các góc và cạnh sắc nét đã được làm tròn để giảm nguy cơ thương tích.
![ động cơ tản nhiệt tủ lạnh công nghiệp](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/11.jpg)
**FAN MOTORS**
Động cơ và cánh quạt lớn hơn cho luồng không khí hiệu quả hơn đảm bảo thời gian phục hồi nhanh hơn.
![ tủ lạnh không làm ô nhiễm môi trường](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/12.jpg)
**THÂN THIỆN VỚI MÔI TRƯỜNG**
Hệ thống ống mao mạch tự chứa bằng cách sử dụng chất làm lạnh R134A không chứa CFC thân thiện với môi trường, không làm hại lớp ozone.
**MIẾNG ĐỆM CỬA**
Đảm bảo khả năng kín tối đa và có thể tháo lắp mà không cần dụng cụ. Làm sạch và thay thế dễ dàng.
**HỆ THỐNG LẠNH TRƯỞNG TOP**
Nó cho phép bạn dễ dàng tiếp cận để bảo trì và được thiết kế để tối đa hóa hiệu quả làm lạnh và hiệu năng cao.
**NGƯNG TỤ VÀ THIẾT BỊ BAY HƠI**
Cuộn quá độ và cuộn cảm bay hơi lạnh để thiết lập và duy trì nhiệt độ trong khoảng thời gian tối thiểu.
**NĂNG LỰC THÊM TRONG CÙNG KHÔNG GIAN**
Đó là thời gian để khám phá sự tiện lợi của việc có một tủ lạnh với công suất lớn nhất có sẵn trong lớp học của nó. Với tủ lạnh siêu công suất, bạn có không gian sử dụng nhiều hơn cho phép bạn lưu trữ nhiều thức ăn hơn bao giờ hết. EVERZEN có tính năng mở rộng cửa hàng tiện lợi và những tiến bộ mới nhất trong sự tươi mát của thực phẩm. Thêm phong cách vượt thời gian giúp tăng cường các thiết lập nhà bếp. EVERZEN có thể lưu trữ đến 1699 lít nhưng nó mỏng hơn so với các mô hình trước khác.
**DỄ DÀNG SỬA CHỮA**
Tấm vách ngăn có thể tháo rời ra để thuận tiện cho việc bảo dưỡng và sửa chữa.
![ thông số ](https://thietbihanquoc.vn/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/UDS-30FAR-1-1Door-tskt.jpg)
|Tủ lạnh có kính|
|Dung tích tủ lạnh|
|Loại làm lạnh tủ 2 cửa|
|Kiểu làm lạnh tủ lạnh||
|
Làm mát (0-5 độ C)
|Số cửa tủ lạnh|
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