THENEWSOUTHAFRICA
and adequate housing. Except for the AIDS pandemic, which was tearing
all of Southern Africa apart, the major problems that afflicted South
Africa-poverty,
crime, the weak economy, and the education mess-
were mutually reinforcing and had deep roots in the past. They could not
possibly have been solved in six years. Moreover, in spite of the gravity of
the situation, South Africa in 2000 was richer, more stable, more peaceful,
and more humane than any country in mainland tropical Africa. The
2000 edition of the United Nations Human Development Report, based
on 1998 data, ranked South Africa 103 out of 174 states. That was disap-
pointing in the global context, but much better than any other country in
mainland sub-Saharan Africa. The closest were Swaziland, Namibia, and
Botswana,
all neighbors of South Africa, followed by oil-producing
Gabon. Nigeria, South Africa's principal rival for leadership in sub-Saha-
ran Africa, ranked 155. 119
Nothing is preordained in human history. In 2000 it was still conceiv-
able that the dreams of Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, and millions of
other South Africans would eventually, in some fashion, triumph.
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