Incidence rates of cervical cancer have decreased.

The effect of mass screening on incidence and mortality of squamous and adenocarcinoma of cervix uteri.

OBJECTIVE To describe the efficacy of the Finnish mass screening program for cervical squamous carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, as reflected by changes of incidence and mortality rate. METHODS Cervical cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Data were available from the year 1953, when the registry was established. The nationwide mass screening program in Finland was started in the mid-1960s. A centralized organization administers this program. Women age 30-60 years are notified for screening every 5 years. RESULTS The mean incidence of cervical carcinoma in the early 1960s was 15.4 per 10(5) woman-years. In 1991, it was only 2.7 per 10(5) woman-years. The mortality rate has decreased in the same proportion since the mass screening program. In the early 1960s, the mortality was 6.6 and in 1991 1.4 per 10(5) woman-years. However, the decrease of the incidence is seen almost exclusively in squamous cell carcinomas. The mortality caused by adenocarcinoma has decreased in screened birth cohorts, but the incidence rate has remained the same. CONCLUSIONS The Finnish mass screening program has been effective and its continuation is of utmost importance. In the future more attention should be given to glandular cell atypias in cervical smears. Thus, it might be possible to decrease the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma.

Mass screening programmes and trends in cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands.

With respect to cervical cancer management, Finland and the Netherlands are comparable in relevant characteristics, e.g., fertility rate, age-of-mother at first birth and a national screening programme for several years. The aim of this study is to compare trends in incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands in relation to the introduction and intensity of the screening programmes. Therefore, incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the Cancer Registries of Finland and the Netherlands. Data on screening intensity were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry and the Dutch evaluation centre at ErasmusMC-Rotterdam. Women aged 30-60 have been screened every 5 years, in Finland since 1992 and in the Netherlands since 1996. Screening protocols for smear taking and referral to the gynaecologist are comparable. Incidence and mortality rates have declined more in Finland. In 2003, age-adjusted incidence and mortality in Finland were 4.0 and 0.9 and in the Netherlands 4.9 and 1.4 per 100,000 woman-years, respectively. Excess smear use in the Netherlands was estimated to be 24 per 1,000 women during a 5-year interval compared to 121 in Finland. The decline in mortality in Finland seems to be almost completely related to the screening programme whereas in the Netherlands it was initially considered to be a natural decline. Differences in risk factors might also play a role: the Netherlands has higher population density and higher percentages of immigrants and (female) smokers. The greater excess smear use in Finland might also have affected incidence.

Short term persistence of human papillomavirus and risk of cervical precancer and cancer: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia II or worse (grade II+) or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III+ after short term persistence of prevalently detected carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV). DESIGN Population based cohort study. SETTING Guanacaste, Costa Rica. PARTICIPANTS 2282 sexually active women actively followed after enrolment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Primary end points: three year and five year cumulative incidence of histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ (n=70). Cervical specimens collected at each visit tested for more than 40 HPV genotypes. HPV 16, 18, 26, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, 68, 73, and 82 were considered the primary carcinogenic genotypes. RESULTS Women who tested positive for a carcinogenic HPV at enrolment and after about one year (9-21 months) (positive/positive) had a three year cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ of 17.0% (95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.0%). Those who tested negative/positive (3.4%, 0.1% to 6.8%), positive/negative (1.2%, -0.2% to 2.5%), and negative/negative (0.5%, 0.1% to 0.9%) were at a significantly lower risk. There was little difference in the cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+ between testing positive twice for any carcinogenic HPV genotype (same genotype or different genotypes) v testing positive twice for the same carcinogenic genotype (17.0% v 21.3%, respectively). Short term persistence of HPV 16 strongly predicted cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II+, with a three year cumulative incidence of 40.8% (26.4% to 55.1%). Similar patterns were observed for the five year cumulative incidence of grade II+ and for three year and five year cumulative incidence of grade III+. CONCLUSIONS Short term persistence of a prevalently detected carcinogenic HPV infection, especially HPV 16, strongly predicts a subsequent diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia II+ over the next few years.

Rate of cervical cancer, severe intraepithelial neoplasia, and adenocarcinoma in situ in primary HPV DNA screening with cytology triage: randomised study within organised screening programme.

OBJECTIVE To assess the performance and impact of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA screening with cytology triage compared with conventional cytology on cervical cancer and severe pre-cancerous lesions. DESIGN Randomised trial. SETTING Population based screening programme for cervical cancer in southern Finland in 2003-5. PARTICIPANTS 58 076 women, aged 30-60, invited to the routine population based screening programme for cervical cancer. INTERVENTIONS Primary HPV DNA test (hybrid capture II) with cytology triage if the result was positive or conventional cytological screening (reference). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Rate of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade III, and adenocarcinoma in situ (as a composite outcome referred to as CIN III+) during 2003-7 through record linkage between files from the screening registry and the national cancer registry. RESULTS In the HPV and conventional arms there were 95 600 and 95 700 woman years of follow-up and 76 and 53 cases of CIN III+, respectively (of which six and eight were cervical cancers). The relative rate of CIN III+ in the HPV arm versus the conventional arm was 1.44 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.05) among all women invited for screening and 1.77 (1.16 to 2.74) among those who attended. Among women with a normal or negative test result, the relative rate of subsequent CIN III+ was 0.28 (0.04 to 1.17). The rate of cervical cancer between arms was 0.75 (0.25 to 2.16) among women invited for screening and 1.98 (0.52 to 9.38) among those who attended. CONCLUSIONS When incorporated into a well established organised screening programme, primary HPV screening with cytology triage was more sensitive than conventional cytology in detecting CIN III+ lesions. The number of cases of cervical cancer was small, but considering the high probability of progression of CIN III the findings are of importance regarding cancer prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN23885553.

Human papillomavirus and Papanicolaou tests to screen for cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND Screening for cervical cancer based on testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) increases the sensitivity of detection of high-grade (grade 2 or 3) cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, but whether this gain represents overdiagnosis or protection against future high-grade cervical epithelial neoplasia or cervical cancer is unknown. METHODS In a population-based screening program in Sweden, 12,527 women 32 to 38 years of age were randomly assigned at a 1:1 ratio to have an HPV test plus a Papanicolaou (Pap) test (intervention group) or a Pap test alone (control group). Women with a positive HPV test and a normal Pap test result were offered a second HPV test at least 1 year later, and those who were found to be persistently infected with the same high-risk type of HPV were then offered colposcopy with cervical biopsy. A similar number of double-blinded Pap smears and colposcopies with biopsy were performed in randomly selected women in the control group. Comprehensive registry data were used to follow the women for a mean of 4.1 years. The relative rates of grade 2 or 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cancer detected at enrollment and at subsequent screening examinations were calculated. RESULTS At enrollment, the proportion of women in the intervention group who were found to have lesions of grade 2 or 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cancer was 51% greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 13 to 102) than the proportion of women in the control group who were found to have such lesions. At subsequent screening examinations, the proportion of women in the intervention group who were found to have grade 2 or 3 lesions or cancer was 42% less (95% CI, 4 to 64) and the proportion with grade 3 lesions or cancer was 47% less (95% CI, 2 to 71) than the proportions of control women who were found to have such lesions. Women with persistent HPV infection remained at high risk for grade 2 or 3 lesions or cancer after referral for colposcopy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of an HPV test to the Pap test to screen women in their mid-30s for cervical cancer reduces the incidence of grade 2 or 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cancer detected by subsequent screening examinations. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00479375 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Efficacy of HPV DNA testing with cytology triage and/or repeat HPV DNA testing in primary cervical cancer screening.

BACKGROUND Primary cervical screening with both human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing and cytological examination of cervical cells with a Pap test (cytology) has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials. Because the vast majority of women with positive cytology are also HPV DNA positive, screening strategies that use HPV DNA testing as the primary screening test may be more effective. METHODS We used the database from the intervention arm (n = 6,257 women) of a population-based randomized trial of double screening with cytology and HPV DNA testing to evaluate the efficacy of 11 possible cervical screening strategies that are based on HPV DNA testing alone, cytology alone, and HPV DNA testing combined with cytology among women aged 32-38 years. The main outcome measures were sensitivity for detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) within 6 months of enrollment or at colposcopy for women with a persistent type-specific HPV infection and the number of screening tests and positive predictive value (PPV) for each screening strategy. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Compared with screening by cytology alone, double testing with cytology and for type-specific HPV persistence resulted in a 35% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15% to 60%) increase in sensitivity to detect CIN3+, without a statistically significant reduction in the PPV (relative PPV = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.52 to 1.10), but with more than twice as many screening tests needed. Several strategies that incorporated screening for high-risk HPV subtypes were explored, but they resulted in reduced PPV compared with cytology. Compared with cytology, primary screening with HPV DNA testing followed by cytological triage and repeat HPV DNA testing of HPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology increased the CIN3+ sensitivity by 30% (95% CI = 9% to 54%), maintained a high PPV (relative PPV = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.60 to 1.26), and resulted in a mere 12% increase in the number of screening tests (from 6,257 to 7,019 tests). CONCLUSIONS Primary HPV DNA-based screening with cytology triage and repeat HPV DNA testing of cytology-negative women appears to be the most feasible cervical screening strategy.

Human papillomavirus testing for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cancer: final results of the POBASCAM randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is more sensitive for the detection of high-grade cervical lesions than is cytology, but detection of HPV by DNA screening in two screening rounds 5 years apart has not been assessed. The aim of this study was to assess whether HPV DNA testing in the first screen decreases detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or worse, CIN grade 2 or worse, and cervical cancer in the second screening. METHODS In this randomised trial, women aged 29-56 years participating in the cervical screening programme in the Netherlands were randomly assigned to receive HPV DNA (GP5+/6+-PCR method) and cytology co-testing or cytology testing alone, from January, 1999, to September, 2002. Randomisation (in a 1:1 ratio) was done with computer-generated random numbers after the cervical specimen had been taken. At the second screening 5 years later, HPV DNA and cytology co-testing was done in both groups; researchers were masked to the patient's assignment. The primary endpoint was the number of CIN grade 3 or worse detected. Analysis was done by intention to screen. The trial is now finished and is registered, number ISRCTN20781131. FINDINGS 22,420 women were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 22 518 to the control group; 19 999 in the intervention group and 20,106 in the control group were eligible for analysis at the first screen. At the second screen, 19 579 women in the intervention group and 19,731 in the control group were eligible, of whom 16,750 and 16,743, respectively, attended the second screen. In the second round, CIN grade 3 or worse was less common in the intervention group than in the control group (88 of 19 579 in the intervention group vs 122 of 19,731 in the control group; relative risk 0·73, 95% CI 0·55-0·96; p=0·023). Cervical cancer was also less common in the intervention group than in the control group (four of 19 579 in the intervention group vs 14 of 19,731; 0·29, 0·10-0·87; p=0·031). In the baseline round, detection of CIN grade 3 or worse did not differ significantly between groups (171 of 19 999 vs 150 of 20,106; 1·15, 0·92-1·43; p=0·239) but was significantly more common in women with normal cytology (34 of 19,286 vs 12 of 19,373; 2·85, 1·47-5·49; p=0·001). Furthermore, significantly more cases of CIN grade 2 or worse were detected in the intervention group than in the control group (267 of 19 999 vs 215 of 20,106; 1·25, 1·05-1·50; p=0·015). In the second screen, fewer HPV16-positive CIN grade 3 or worse were detected in the intervention group than in the control group (17 of 9481 vs 35 of 9354; 0·48, 0·27-0·85; p=0·012); detection of non-HPV16-positive CIN grade 3 or worse did not differ between groups (25 of 9481 vs 25 of 9354; 0·99, 0·57-1·72; p=1·00). The cumulative detection of CIN grade 3 or worse and CIN grade 2 or worse did not differ significantly between study arms, neither for the whole study group (CIN grade 3 or worse: 259 of 19 999 vs 272 of 20,106; 0·96, 0·81-1·14, p=0·631; CIN grade 2 or worse: 427 of 19 999 vs 399 of 20,106; 1·08, 0·94-1·24; p=0·292), nor for subgroups of women invited for the first time (CIN grade 3 or worse in women aged 29-33 years: 102 of 3139 vs 105 of 3128; 0·97, 0·74-1·27; CIN grade 2 or worse in women aged 29-33 years: 153 of 3139 vs 151 of 3128; 1·01, 0·81-1·26; CIN grade 3 or worse in women aged 34-56 years: 157 of 16,860 vs 167 of 16 978; 0·95, 0·76-1·18; CIN grade 2 or worse in women aged 34-56 years: 274 of 16,860 vs 248 of 16 978; 1·11, 0·94-1·32). INTERPRETATION Implementation of HPV DNA testing in cervical screening leads to earlier detection of clinically relevant CIN grade 2 or worse, which when adequately treated, improves protection against CIN grade 3 or worse and cervical cancer. Early detection of high-grade cervical legions caused by HPV16 was a major component of this benefit. Our results lend support to the use of HPV DNA testing for all women aged 29 years and older. FUNDING Zorg Onderzoek Nederland (Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development).

Effect of screening on cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales: analysis of trends with an age period cohort model.

The number of women dying from cervical cancer in 1997 was 7% lower than in 1996 and has fallen by over 25% since 1992.1 Such rapid change must be at least partly due to cervical screening, although strong cohort effects have caused large fluctuations in cervical mortality in the past.2 We modelled mortality data, taking into account the effects of age and year of birth and looking for trends in time within four age groups to estimate the beneficial effects of cervical screening. We obtained mortality data, in 5 year age bands, from death registrations in England and Wales and calculated rates using mid-year population estimates. Mortality since 1993 was adjusted upwards by 4% because of changes in classification of cause of death.3  We modelled the data assuming that the age specific mortality is the product of a smoothly varying age effect, birth cohort effect, and age dependent …

A cohort study of the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 in relation to papillomavirus infection.

BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been associated with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, but the temporal relation between the infection and the neoplasia remains unclear, as does the relative importance of the specific type of HPV, other sexually transmitted diseases, and other risk factors. METHODS We studied prospectively a cohort of 241 women who presented for evaluation of sexually transmitted disease and had negative cervical cytologic tests. The women were followed every four months with cytologic and colposcopic examinations of the uterine cervix and tests for HPV DNA and other sexually transmitted diseases. RESULTS Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 was confirmed by biopsy in 28 women. On the basis of survival analysis, the cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia at two years was 28 percent among women with a positive test for HPV and 3 percent among those without detectable HPV DNA: The risk was highest among those with HPV type 16 or 18 infection (adjusted relative risk as compared with that in women without HPV infection, 11; 95 percent confidence interval, 4.6 to 26; attributable risk, 52 percent). All 24 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 among HPV-positive women were detected within 24 months after the first positive test for HPV. After adjustment for the presence of HPV infection, the development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia was also associated with younger age at first intercourse, the presence of serum antibodies to Chlamydia trachomatis, the presence of serum antibodies to cytomegalovirus, and cervical infection with Neisseria gonorrhoeae. CONCLUSIONS Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia is a common and apparently early manifestation of cervical infection by HPV, particularly types 16 and 18.

Baseline cytology, human papillomavirus testing, and risk for cervical neoplasia: A 10-year cohort analysis

As more is learned about the development of cervical cancer, the value of annual Pap smear screening for all women is being questioned. This study was conducted to investigate whether women at higher risk for the development of cervical cancer could be identified by testing for the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in the cervical smear. These women could be followed annually, and the interval between screening Pap smears for women at lower risk could be increased. Study participants were women enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente healthcare plan in Portland, Oregon, who underwent annual Pap smear screening between April 1989, and November 1990. More than 20,000 women (20,810 of 23,702) had satisfactory cervical smears with sufficient samples for HPV testing, which was conducted using a polymerase chain reaction-based method with MYO9/11 primers. Most women (83.6%) had at least one follow-up smear during the study period; however, women with atypical squamous cells (ASC) or worse had more smears than women with normal results (mean, 4.4 vs. 3.3). Follow-up was conducted more or less annually for a total period of 122 months. HPV results were not used in deciding patient management. Ninety-six percent of the 20,810 baseline Pap smears were diagnosed as negative (N = 20,156). Thirteen percent of these patients tested positive for HPV. The baseline smears of 654 of the 20,810 women (3.1%) were classified as ASC or worse. Of these 654 smears, 417 (63.8%) were positive for HPV. One hundred seventy-eight women had a cytologic diagnosis of a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worse; of these, 143 (80.3%) tested positive for HPV. During the 10 years of follow-up, 171 patients developed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 or cervical cancer. The baseline smear was normal in 112 of these women and ASC or worse in 59 (34.5%). Only half (49.2%) of the 58 patients diagnosed within the first 45 months of follow-up had an abnormal baseline smear. During this first 45 months, 7.85% of the women whose initial Pap test was at least ASC were diagnosed with CIN 3 or cancer. The cumulative incidence at 10 years of follow-up was 10.2%. Sixty of the 171 women with CIN 3 or cervical cancer had a negative baseline HPV test. Of the 118 women who were diagnosed during the first 45 months of follow-up, 89 (79.4%) were HPV positive initially. The cumulative incidence of CIN 3 or cancer among the group with a positive baseline HPV test was 6.92% over 10 years but only 1.73% at 45 months. The risk of developing CIN 3 or cancer remained elevated throughout the study in those women with a positive baseline HPV test. The predictive ability of the baseline Pap smear diminished as the follow-up interval increased. Fifteen percent of the patients (N = 3216) had a positive Pap smear, a positive HPV test, or both at the initial examination. One hundred twenty-three (71.9%) were among the 171 women who developed CIN 3 or cancer. Eighty-six percent (102 of 123) of the patients who were diagnosed within the first 45 months were positive with at least one of the screening studies. The cumulative incidence over 45 months for women who had positive HPV testing and/or abnormal Pap smear results was 4.54%. Women with negative results in both screening tests had a cumulative risk of 0.16% for the same period. At 10 years the cumulative risk incidence for these two groups was 6.83% and 0.79%, respectively, yielding a negative predictive value of 99.1% for combined testing.

Mammographic density and the risk and detection of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Extensive mammographic density is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and makes the detection of cancer by mammography difficult, but the influence of density on risk according to method of cancer detection is unknown. METHODS We carried out three nested case-control studies in screened populations with 1112 matched case-control pairs. We examined the association of the measured percentage of density in the baseline mammogram with risk of breast cancer, according to method of cancer detection, time since the initiation of screening, and age. RESULTS As compared with women with density in less than 10% of the mammogram, women with density in 75% or more had an increased risk of breast cancer (odds ratio, 4.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0 to 7.4), whether detected by screening (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.2) or less than 12 months after a negative screening examination (odds ratio, 17.8; 95% CI, 4.8 to 65.9). Increased risk of breast cancer, whether detected by screening or other means, persisted for at least 8 years after study entry and was greater in younger than in older women. For women younger than the median age of 56 years, 26% of all breast cancers and 50% of cancers detected less than 12 months after a negative screening test were attributable to density in 50% or more of the mammogram. CONCLUSIONS Extensive mammographic density is strongly associated with the risk of breast cancer detected by screening or between screening tests. A substantial fraction of breast cancers can be attributed to this risk factor.

Long-term follow-up of cervical disease in women screened by cytology and HPV testing: results from the HART study

BACKGROUND Several studies have shown that testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types results in an improved sensitivity for CIN2+, compared with cytology, although with a somewhat lower specificity. METHODS We obtained follow-up results, with at least one smear after participation in the HART study, which compared HPV testing (HC-II) with cytology as a primary screening modality. RESULTS With a median follow-up of 6 years, 42 additional cases of CIN2+ were identified; women who were HPV positive at baseline were more likely to develop CIN2+ than those who were HPV negative (hazard ratio (HR) 17.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) (9.3-31.6)) and the risk increased with increasing viral load. Compared with HPV-negative women (relative light unit (RLU) <1), the HR (95% CI) was 5.4 (1.6, 18.2) for 1-10 RLU and 25.5 (13.6, 47.9) for RLU > or = 10. Positive cytology (borderline or worse compared with negative) was also predictive of developing CIN2, although to a lesser extent (HR 8.7; 95% CI (4.5-17.1)). Only one case of CIN3 and three cases of CIN2 were found in women who showed a positive cytology result but were HPV negative at baseline. CONCLUSION After 5 years of follow-up, CIN2+ occurred in 0.23% of women who were HPV negative at baseline compared with 0.48% of women who showed a negative cytology result, indicating a much longer low-risk interval for CIN2+ after HPV testing.

Efficacy of human papillomavirus testing for the detection of invasive cervical cancers and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is known to be more sensitive, but less specific than cytology for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). We assessed the efficacy of cervical-cancer screening policies that are based on HPV testing. METHODS Between March, 2004, and December, 2004, in two separate recruitment phases, women aged 25-60 years were randomly assigned to conventional cytology or to HPV testing in combination with liquid-based cytology (first phase) or alone (second phase). Randomisation was done by computer in two screening centres and by sequential opening of numbered sealed envelopes in the remaining seven centres. During phase one, women who were HPV-positive and aged 35-60 years were referred to colposcopy, whereas women aged 25-34 years were referred to colposcopy only if cytology was also abnormal or HPV testing was persistently positive. During phase two, women in the HPV group were referred for colposcopy if the HPV test was positive. Two rounds of screening occurred in each phase, and all women had cytology testing only at the second round. The primary endpoint was the detection of grade 2 and 3 CIN, and of invasive cervical cancers during the first and second screening rounds. Analysis was done by intention to screen. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN81678807. FINDINGS In total for both phases, 47,001 women were randomly assigned to the cytology group and 47,369 to HPV testing. 33,851 women from the cytology group and 32,998 from the HPV-testing group had a second round of screening. We also retrieved the histological diagnoses from screening done elsewhere. The detection of invasive cervical cancers was similar for the two groups in the first round of screening (nine in the cytology group vs seven in the HPV group, p=0.62); no cases were detected in the HPV group during round two, compared with nine in the cytology group (p=0.004). Overall, in the two rounds of screening, 18 invasive cancers were detected in the cytology group versus seven in the HPV group (p=0.028). Among women aged 35-60 years, at round one the relative detection (HPV vs cytology) was 2.00 (95% CI 1.44-2.77) for CIN2, 2.08 (1.47-2.95) for CIN3, and 2.03 (1.60-2.57) for CIN2 and 3 together. At round two the relative detection was 0.54 (0.23-1.28) for CIN2, 0.48 (0.21-1.11) for CIN3, and 0.51 (0.28-0.93) for CIN2 and 3 together. Among women aged 25-34 years, there was significant heterogeneity between phases in the relative detection of CIN3. At round one the relative detection was 0.93 (0.52-1.64) in phase one and 3.91 (2.02-7.57) in phase two. At round two the relative detection was 1.34 (0.46-3.84) in phase one and 0.20 (0.04-0.93) in phase two. Pooling both phases, the detection ratio of CIN2 for women aged 25-34 years was 4.09 (2.24-7.48) at round one and 0.64 (0.23-1.27) at round two. INTERPRETATION HPV-based screening is more effective than cytology in preventing invasive cervical cancer, by detecting persistent high-grade lesions earlier and providing a longer low-risk period. However, in younger women, HPV screening leads to over-diagnosis of regressive CIN2. FUNDING European Union, Italian Ministry of Health, Regional Health Administrations of Piemonte, Tuscany, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, and Public Health Agency of Lazio.

Interlaboratory reproducibility and proficiency testing within the human papillomavirus cervical cancer screening program in Catalonia, Spain.

In Catalonia, a screening protocol for cervical cancer, including human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing using the Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay, was implemented in 2006. In order to monitor interlaboratory reproducibility, a proficiency testing (PT) survey of the HPV samples was launched in 2008. The aim of this study was to explore the repeatability of the HC2 assay's performance. Participating laboratories provided 20 samples annually, 5 randomly chosen samples from each of the following relative light unit (RLU) intervals: <0.5, 0.5 to 0.99, 1 to 9.99, and ≥10. Kappa statistics were used to determine the agreement levels between the original and the PT readings. The nature and origin of the discrepant results were calculated by bootstrapping. A total of 946 specimens were retested. The kappa values were 0.91 for positive/negative categorical classification and 0.79 for the four RLU intervals studied. Sample retesting yielded systematically lower RLU values than the original test (P<0.005), independently of the time elapsed between the two determinations (median, 53 days), possibly due to freeze-thaw cycles. The probability for a sample to show clinically discrepant results upon retesting was a function of the RLU value; samples with RLU values in the 0.5 to 5 interval showed 10.80% probability to yield discrepant results (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.86 to 14.33) compared to 0.85% probability for samples outside this interval (95% CI, 0.17 to 1.69). Globally, the HC2 assay shows high interlaboratory concordance. We have identified differential confidence thresholds and suggested the guidelines for interlaboratory PT in the future, as analytical quality assessment of HPV DNA detection remains a central component of the screening program for cervical cancer prevention.

Evidence regarding human papillomavirus testing in secondary prevention of cervical cancer.

More than ever, clinicians need regularly updated reviews given the continuously increasing amount of new information regarding innovative cervical cancer prevention methods. A summary is given from recent meta-analyses and systematic reviews on 3 possible clinical applications of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing: triage of women with equivocal or low-grade cytologic abnormalities; prediction of the therapeutic outcome after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) lesions, and last not but not least, primary screening for cervical cancer and pre-cancer. Consistent evidence is available indicating that HPV-triage with the Hybrid Capture(®) 2 assay (Qiagen Gaithersburg, Inc., MD, USA [previously Digene Corp.] (HC2) is more accurate (higher sensitivity, similar specificity) than repeat cytology to triage women with equivocal Pap smear results. Several other tests show at least similar accuracy but mRNA testing with the APTIMA(®) (Gen-Probe Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) test is similarly sensitive but more specific compared to HC2. In triage of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), HC2 is more sensitive but its specificity is substantially lower compared to repeat cytology. The APTIMA(®) test is more specific than HC2 without showing a loss in sensitivity. Identification of DNA of HPV types 16 and/or 18, or RNA from the five most carcinogenic HPV types allow selecting women at highest risk for CIN3+ but the sensitivity and negative predictive value of these markers are lower than full-range high-risk HPV (hrHPV) testing. After conservative treatment of cervical pre-cancer, HPV testing picks up more quickly, with higher sensitivity and not lower specificity, residual or recurrent high-grade CIN than follow-up cytology. Primary screening for hrHPV generally detects more CIN2, CIN3 or cancer compared to cytology at cut-off atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or LSIL, but is less specific. Combined HPV and cytology screening provides a further small gain in sensitivity at the expense of a considerable loss in specificity if positive by either test is referred to colposcopy, in comparison with HPV testing only. Randomised trials and follow-up of cohort studies consistently demonstrate a significantly lower cumulative incidence of CIN3+ and even of cancer, in women aged 30 years or older, who were at enrollment hrHPV DNA negative compared to those who were cytologically negative. The difference in cumulative risk of CIN3+ or cancer for double negative (cytology & HPV) versus only HPV-negative women is small. HC2, GP5+/6+ PCR (polymerase chain reaction), cobas(®) 4800 PCR (Roche Molecular Systems Inc., Alameda, CA, USA) and Real Time PCR (Abbott Molecular, Des Plaines, IL, USA) can be considered as clinically validated for use in primary screening. The loss in specificity associated with primary HPV-based screening can be compensated by appropriate algorithms involving reflex cytology and/or HPV genotyping for HPV16 or 18. There exists a substantial evidence base to support that HPV testing is advantageous both in triage of women with equivocal abnormal cytology, in surveillance after treatment of CIN lesions and in primary screening of women aged 30 years or older. However, the possible advantages offered by HPV-based screening require a well organised program with good compliance with screening and triage policies. This article forms part of a special supplement entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012.

Evaluation of human papillomavirus testing in primary screening for cervical abnormalities: comparison of sensitivity, specificity, and frequency of referral.

CONTEXT Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing of women having Papanicolaou (Pap) smears showing atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) has clinical usefulness. Whether HPV DNA testing alone is useful in primary screening remains to be determined. OBJECTIVE To determine the accuracy of HPV DNA testing for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cancer (the criterion standard). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Between December 1997 and October 2000, 4075 women who attended Planned Parenthood clinics in Washington State were screened simultaneously using thin-layer Pap and HPV DNA testing by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method and by a liquid-based RNA-DNA hybridization capture with signal amplification assay (signal amplification). Women who were positive for high-risk HPV types, or had Pap results of ASCUS or higher, were considered to have positive screening test results and were referred for colposcopy and biopsy. Additionally, a random sample of women with negative screening test results was referred for colposcopy. Based on individual and combined thin-layer Pap, HPV PCR, and HPV signal amplification test results from the screening and the colposcopy visits, 7 colposcopy triage strategies were defined and evaluated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Sensitivity and specificity for detecting cervical lesions graded CIN 3 or higher for each of the 7 triage strategies. RESULTS The estimated prevalence of CIN 3 or higher was 3.2%. The sensitivity (95% confidence interval) of thin-layer Pap (with a result of > or = ASCUS) for identifying women with CIN 3 or higher was only 61.3% (48.5%-70.9%) compared with 88.2% (78.9%-93.8%) for HPV testing by PCR and 90.8% (83.1%-95.8%) by signal amplification. Differences in specificities were also observed: 82.4% (81.8%-83.1%) for thin-layer Pap (with a result of > or = ASCUS), 78.8% (77.9%-79.7%) for PCR, and 72.6% (69.4%-75.0%) for signal amplification. Compared with referral for colposcopy of all women with ASCUS or higher, signal amplification testing of women with ASCUS and referral of those with a positive result was about as sensitive (61.3% vs 60.3%, respectively) and significantly more specific (82.4% vs 88.9%, respectively). The strategy requiring repeat positive PCR tests on 2 visits had a sensitivity of 84.2% (75.3%-91.0%) and a specificity of 86.2% (85.1%-87.3%). All tests were more specific and less sensitive in older (> or = 30 years) vs younger women. CONCLUSIONS Testing for HPV has higher sensitivity but lower specificity than thin-layer Pap screening. In some settings, particularly where screening intervals are long or haphazard, screening for HPV DNA may be a reasonable alternative to cytology-based screening of reproductive-age women.

Rapid clearance of human papillomavirus and implications for clinical focus on persistent infections.

Health professionals and the public need to understand the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections of the cervix to best use the information provided by new molecular screening tests. We investigated outcomes of 800 carcinogenic HPV infections detected in 599 women at enrollment into a population-based cohort (Guanacaste, Costa Rica). For individual infections, we calculated cumulative proportions of three outcomes (viral clearance, persistence without cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse [CIN2+], or persistence with new diagnosis of CIN2+) at successive 6-month time points for the first 30 months of follow-up. Cervical specimens were tested for carcinogenic HPV genotypes using an L1 degenerate-primer polymerase chain reaction method. Infections typically cleared rapidly, with 67% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 63% to 70%) clearing by 12 months. However, among infections that persisted at least 12 months, the risk of CIN2+ diagnosis by 30 months was 21% (95% CI = 15% to 28%). The risk of CIN2+ diagnosis was highest among women younger than 30 years with HPV-16 infections that persisted for at least 12 months (53%; 95% CI = 29% to 76%). These findings suggest that the medical community should emphasize persistence of cervical HPV infection, not single-time detection of HPV, in management strategies and health messages.

Findings to date from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS).

Controversy exists in the United States regarding the proper evaluation and management of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) and equivocal (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASCUS, now ASC-US]) cervical cytologic interpretations. To address this issue, the National Cancer Institute initiated the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS). ALTS is a multicenter, randomized clinical trial designed to evaluate 3 alternative methods of management, namely, immediate colposcopy, cytologic follow-up, and triage by human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing. This article summarizes the major findings of ALTS that have been published to date. Patients with ASCUS (n = 3488) or LSIL (n = 1572) were randomly assigned to research arms between November 1996 and December 1998, and were monitored for 2 years. The disease outcome was histologic cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3/cancer. The prevalence of oncogenic HPV was too high to permit effective triage of LSIL using HPV DNA testing by Hybrid Capture 2. However, for the women referred with a cytologic interpretation of ASCUS, HPV triage proved useful, with sensitivity equivalent to immediate colposcopy and a halving of colposcopic referrals. Among older women with ASCUS, HPV testing remained sensitive for detecting CIN 3 and cancer, but the referral percentage was dramatically lower compared to younger women. ALTS yielded insight into the performance of cytology and histopathology; experienced pathologists differed significantly in their interpretations of cervical abnormalities, especially histologic CIN 1 and cytologic ASCUS. Nonetheless, it was possible to distinguish a relatively uncommon type of ASCUS, equivocal for high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, that has a high positive predictive value for identifying women with underlying high-grade CIN. Many additional analyses are underway.

Radiation-Related Cancer Risks at Low Doses among Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Pierce, D. A. and Preston, D. L. Radiation-Related Cancer Risks at Low Doses among Atomic Bomb Survivors. To clarify the information in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation data regarding cancer risks of low radiation doses, we focus on survivors with doses less than 0.5 Sv. For reasons indicated, we also restrict attention mainly to survivors within 3,000 m of the hypocenter of the bombs. Analysis is of solid cancer incidence from 1958–1994, involving 7,000 cancer cases among 50,000 survivors in that dose and distance range. The results provide useful risk estimates for doses as low as 0.05–0.1 Sv, which are not overestimated by linear risk estimates computed from the wider dose ranges 0–2 Sv or 0–4 Sv. There is a statistically significant risk in the range 0–0.1 Sv, and an upper confidence limit on any possible threshold is computed as 0.06 Sv. It is indicated that modification of the neutron dose estimates currently under consideration would not markedly change the conclusions.

The role of prevention in oncology practice: results from a 2004 survey of American Society of Clinical Oncology members.

PURPOSE In 2004, the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Cancer Prevention Committee surveyed the members to describe involvement in clinical prevention activities. METHODS A previously administered survey, with updated items on genetics, chemoprevention, and survivorship, was mailed to a stratified random sample of 2,000 domestic members and a convenience sample of 3,144 international members. RESULTS A total of 49.7% of domestic members contacted and survey eligible responded (n = 851). Nonresponders were younger (50.5 v 51.7 years; P < .01); 465 international members responded. Overall, 35% had received formal instruction in cancer prevention and control, and most respondents expected increased use of prevention, screening/early detection, and risk reduction/genetic counseling in their practices in the next 5 years. Most reported caring for cancer survivors, including providing general medical care. They also either directly provide or refer patients for cancer prevention and control services (eg, cancer screening, tobacco and nutrition counseling, risk reduction, and chemoprevention). Multivariable modeling found fewer perceived barriers to inclusion of cancer prevention activities in clinical practice among those practicing in an academic setting, seeing a higher proportion of patients without a cancer diagnosis, having formal training in prevention and control, expecting an increase in prevention activities in the next 5 years, and providing community advice on prevention. CONCLUSION Barriers to the inclusion of cancer prevention and control activities in oncology clinical practice exist. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of both domestic and international ASCO members report an interest in cancer prevention and control activities, with a desire for more specific educational programs in this emerging area of oncology practice.

Nationwide trends in incidence, treatment and survival of colorectal cancer patients with synchronous metastases

The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence, treatment and survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with synchronous metastases (Stage IV) in the Netherlands. This nationwide population-based study included 160,278 patients diagnosed with CRC between 1996 and 2011. We evaluated changes in stage distribution, location of synchronous metastases and treatment in four consecutive periods, using Chi square tests for trend. Median survival in months was determined, using Kaplan–Meier analysis. The proportion of Stage IV CRC patients (n = 33,421) increased from 19 % (1996–1999) to 23 % (2008–2011, p < 0.001). This was predominantly due to a major increase in the incidence of lung metastases (1.7–5.0 % of all CRC patients). During the study period, the primary tumor was resected less often in Stage IV patients (65–46 %) and the use of systemic treatment has increased (29–60 %). Also an increase in metastasectomy was found in patients with one metastatic site, especially in patients with liver-only disease (5–18 %, p < 0.001). Median survival of all Stage IV CRC patients increased from 7 to 12 months. Especially in patients with metastases confined to the liver or lungs this improvement in survival was apparent (9–16 and 12–24 months respectively, both p < 0.001). In the last two decades, more lung metastases were detected and an increasing proportion of Stage IV CRC patients was treated with systemic therapy and/or metastasectomy. Survival of patients has significantly improved. However, the prognosis of Stage IV patients becomes increasingly diverse.

Cancer survival increases in Europe, but international differences remain wide.

The EUROCARE project analysed cancer survival data from 45 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries, revealing wide international differences in cancer survival. We calculated 5-year relative survival for 1836287 patients diagnosed with one of 13 cancers during the period 1978-1989. The data, from 20 cancer registries in 13 countries, were grouped into four regions: Finland, Sweden, Iceland (Northern Europe); Denmark, England and Scotland (UK and Denmark); France, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Switzerland (Western Europe); Estonia and Poland (Eastern Europe), and broken down into four periods (1978-1980, 1981-1983, 1984-1986, 1987-1989). For each cancer, mean European and regional survival was estimated as the weighted mean of 5-year relative survival in each country. Survival increased with time for all tumours, particularly for cancers of testis (12% increase, i.e. from 79.9 to 91.9%), breast, large bowel, skin melanoma (approximately 9-10%), and lymphomas (approximately 7%). For most solid tumours, survival was highest in Northern Europe and lowest in Eastern Europe, and also low in the UK and Denmark. Regional variation was less marked for the lymphomas. Survival improved more in Western than Northern Europe, and the differences between these regions fell for bowel cancer (from 8.0% for those diagnosed in 1978-1980 to 2% for those diagnosed in 1987-1989), breast cancer (from 7.4% to 3.9%), skin melanoma (from 13.4% to 11.0%) and Hodgkin's disease (from 7.2 to 0.6%). For potentially curable malignancies such as Hodgkin's disease, large bowel, breast and testicular cancers, there were substantial increases in survival, suggesting an earlier diagnosis and more effective treatment. The persisting regional differences suggest there are corresponding differences in the availability of diagnostic and therapeutic facilities, and in the effectiveness of healthcare systems.

Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of cancers of unknown primary site in an Australian population: implications for research and clinical care.

OBJECTIVES To investigate incidence, mortality and case survival trends for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) and consider clinical implications. METHOD South Australian Cancer Registry data were used to calculate age-standardised incidence and mortality rates from 1977 to 2004. Disease-specific survivals, socio-demographic, histological and secular predictors of CUP, compared with cancers of known primary site, and of CUP histological types, using multivariable logistic regression were investigated. RESULTS Incidence and mortality rates increased approximately 60% between 1977--80 and 1981--84. Rates peaked in 1993--96. Male to female incidence and mortality rate ratios approximated 1.3:1. Incidence and mortality rates increased with age. The odds of unspecified histological type, compared with the more common adenocarcinomas, were higher for males than females, non-metropolitan residents, low socio-economic areas, and for 1977--88 than subsequent diagnostic periods. CUP represented a higher proportion of cancers in Indigenous patients. Case survival was 7% at 10 years from diagnosis. Factors predictive of lower case survival included older age, male sex, Indigenous status, lower socio-economic status, and unspecified histology type. CONCLUSION Results point to poor CUP outcomes, but with a modest improvement in survival. The study identifies socio-demographic groups at elevated risk of CUP and of worse treatment outcomes where increased research and clinical attention are required.

Breast cancer mortality trends in the United States according to estrogen receptor status and age at diagnosis.

PURPOSE Since 1990, overall breast cancer mortality rates in the United States decreased 24%. This decline has been attributed to mammography screening and adjuvant systemic therapy. However, the efficacy of these modalities may depend on estrogen receptor (ER) expression and age. We therefore examined breast cancer mortality trends in the United States according to ER status and age. METHODS Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program (1990-2003), we calculated trends in incidence-based mortality (IBM), annual hazard rates for breast cancer deaths after diagnosis, and relative hazard rates for women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors. Relative hazard rates were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for stage and grade, and stratified by age at diagnosis. RESULTS During the study period, IBM and annual hazard rates for breast cancer deaths decreased among women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, although declines were greater for those with ER-positive tumors. Among women younger than 70 years, relative hazard rates declined 38% for those with ER-positive tumors versus 19% for those with ER-negative tumors. Among women 70 years or older, relative hazard rates declined 14% for those with ER-positive tumors versus no significant decline for those with ER-negative tumors. CONCLUSION In the United States, breast cancer mortality rates have declined among women with ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, with greater declines among younger women and those with ER-positive tumors. Although mortality in all groups remains unacceptably high, additional emphasis should be placed on improving outcomes of breast cancer patients older than 70 years and those of all ages with ER-negative tumors.

Surgical Resection for Patients with Solid Brain Metastases: Current Status

Brain metastases occur in up to 40% of patients with cancer. Their management has been revolutionized in the last decade by three developments: improved imaging and detection of metastases, better treatment of systemic disease with the result that metastases occur more often; and improved surgical techniques including image-guided surgery to treat metastatic lesions. Class 1 data suggest that surgery is a better treatment for metastases than whole brain radiation. Other data suggest that metastases even in eloquent cortex can be removed safely. The complication rate is low and the recurrence rate is less than 10%. In general, indications for surgery include a mass with an unknown primary; a symptomatic mass including one in eloquent areas; a mass with considerable edema requiring high dose steroids; a mass greater than 3 cm; or patient preference when radiosurgery may also be an option. The question of radiosurgery or whole brain radiation as adjunct to surgical removal requires further evaluation.

Persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical neoplasia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Detection of persistent cervical carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is used as a marker for cervical cancer risk in clinical trials. The authors performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between persistent HPV DNA and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2-3), high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), and invasive cervical cancer (together designated CIN2-3/HSIL+) to evaluate the robustness of HPV persistence for clinical use. MEDLINE and Current Contents were searched through January 30, 2006. Relative risks (RRs) were stratified by HPV comparison group. Of 2,035 abstracts, 41 studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Over 22,500 women were included in calculation of RRs for persistent HPV DNA detection and cervical neoplasia. RRs ranged from 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.5) to 813.0 (95% confidence interval: 168.2, 3,229.2) for CIN2-3/HSIL+ versus 12 months), wider testing intervals, CIN2-3/HSIL+, and use of an HPV-negative reference group were consistently associated with higher RRs. Thus, HPV persistence was consistently and strongly associated with CIN2-3/HSIL+, despite wide variation in definitions and study methods. The magnitude of association varied by duration of persistence and testing interval. Precise definition and standardization of HPV testing, sampling procedure, and test interval are needed for reliable clinical testing. These findings validate HPV persistence as a clinical marker and endpoint.

Knowledge, attitudes, risk perception, and cancer screening behaviors among cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND Knowledge, attitudes, and risk perception in relation to second primary cancer (SPC) screening and their impact on screening practices in cancer survivors are largely unknown. METHODS A total of 326 cancer survivors who had completed primary treatment for cancer >1 year previously were recruited from 6 oncology care outpatient clinics in the Republic of Korea. Survivors' knowledge, attitudes, perceived risk, and screening practices were assessed along with sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine behavioral factors associated with the completion of all appropriate SPC screening according to national guidelines. RESULTS Approximately 37.7% of survivors had undergone all appropriate SPC screening tests. Survivors were found to have a high perceived risk of SPC, high perceived benefits of screening, and positive attitudes toward cancer screening. However, they had limited knowledge regarding SPC screening tests and few had received a recommendation from a physician to undergo SPC screening. Although there was no association found between perceived risk and positive attitudes with screening behavior, higher knowledge was noted to be significantly associated with the completion of all appropriate SPC screening (adjusted odds ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-3.33). CONCLUSIONS In the current study, cancer survivors were found to have limited knowledge regarding second cancer screening tests, which may have resulted in lower rates of completion of screening practices in this population.

2001. Comparison of three management strategies for patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance. Baseline results from a randomized trial

BACKGROUND More than 2 million U.S. women receive an equivocal cervical cytologic diagnosis (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASCUS]) each year. Effective colposcopy triage strategies are needed to identify the minority of women who have clinically significant disease while avoiding excessive follow-up evaluation for others. METHODS The ASCUS/LSIL (i.e., low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) Triage Study (ALTS) is a multicenter, randomized trial comparing the sensitivity and specificity of the following three management strategies to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3): 1) immediate colposcopy (considered to be the reference standard), 2) triage to colposcopy based on human papillomavirus (HPV) results from Hybrid Capture 2(TM) (HC 2) and thin-layer cytology results, or 3) triage based on cytology results alone. This article summarizes the cross-sectional enrollment results for 3488 women with a referral diagnosis of ASCUS. All statistical tests are two-sided. RESULTS Among participants with ASCUS, the underlying prevalence of histologically confirmed CIN3 was 5.1%. Sensitivity to detect CIN3 or above by testing for cancer-associated HPV DNA was 96.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 91.6% to 98.8%), with 56.1% of women referred to colposcopy. Sensitivity of a single repeat cytology specimen with a triage threshold of HSIL or above was 44.1% (95% CI = 35.6% to 52.9%), with 6.9% referred. Sensitivity of a lower cytology triage threshold of ASCUS or above was 85.3% (95% CI = 78.2% to 90.8%), with 58.6% referred. CONCLUSIONS HC 2 testing for cancer-associated HPV DNA is a viable option in the management of women with ASCUS. It has greater sensitivity to detect CIN3 or above and specificity comparable to a single additional cytologic test indicating ASCUS or above.

Prolonged effect of calcium supplementation on risk of colorectal adenomas in a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND Calcium supplementation has been shown to decrease the risk of recurrence of colorectal adenomas in randomized trials. However, the duration of this protective effect after cessation of active supplementation is not known. METHODS In the Calcium Polyp Prevention Study, 930 subjects with a previous colorectal adenoma were randomly assigned from November 1988 through April 1992 to receive placebo or 1200 mg of elemental calcium daily for 4 years. The Calcium Follow-up Study was an observational phase of the trial that tracked adenoma occurrence for an average of 7 years after the end of randomized treatment and gathered information regarding the use of medications, vitamins, and supplements during that time. We obtained follow-up information for 822 subjects, 597 of whom underwent at least one colonoscopy after the end of study treatment and are included in this analysis. Generalized linear models were used to compute relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the effect of randomized calcium treatment on risk of adenoma recurrence during the first 5 years after study treatment ended and during the subsequent 5 years. Statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS During the first 5 years after randomized treatment ended, subjects in the calcium group still had a substantially and statistically significantly lower risk of any adenoma than those in the placebo group (31.5% versus 43.2%; adjusted RR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.46 to 0.87, P = .005) and a smaller and not statistically significant reduction in risk of advanced adenomas (adjusted RR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.43 to 1.69, P = .65). However, the randomized treatment was not associated with the risk of any type of polyp during the next 5 years. The findings were broadly similar when the analysis was restricted to subjects who did not report use of any calcium supplements after the treatment phase of the trial ended. CONCLUSION The protective effect of calcium supplementation on risk of colorectal adenoma recurrence extends up to 5 years after cessation of active treatment, even in the absence of continued supplementation.

A cluster randomized, controlled trial of breast and cervix cancer screening in Mumbai, India: methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening.

Cervix and Breast cancers are the most common cancers among women worldwide and extract a large toll in developing countries. In May 1998, supported by a grant from the NCI (US), the Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India, started a cluster-randomized, controlled, screening-trial for cervix and breast cancer using trained primary health workers to provide health-education, visual-inspection of cervix (with 4% acetic acid-VIA) and clinical breast examination (CBE) in the screening arm, and only health education in the control arm. Four rounds of screening at 2-year intervals will be followed by 8 years of monitoring for incidence and mortality from cervix and breast cancers. The methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening are presented here. Good randomization was achieved between the screening (n = 75360) and control arms (n = 76178). In the screening arm we see: High screening participation rates; Low attrition; Good compliance to diagnostic confirmation; Significant downstaging; Excellent treatment completion rate; Improving case fatality ratios. The ever-screened and never-screened participants in the screening arm show significant differences with reference to the variables religion, language, age, education, occupation, income and health-seeking behavior for gynecological and breast-related complaints. During the same period, in the control arm we see excellent participation rate for health education; Low attrition and a good number of symptomatic referrals for both cervix and breast.

Circulating adiponectin, leptin and adiponectin-leptin ratio and endometrial cancer risk: Evidence from a meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies.

We performed this meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies to investigate the associations between circulating adiponectin, leptin and adiponectin-leptin (A/L) ratio and endometrial cancer risk. Relevant manuscripts were identified by searching PubMed and ISI Web of Science databases as well as by manual searching the references cited in retrieved manuscripts. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary odds ratio (SOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aforementioned associations. Fourteen manuscripts with 13 studies (five nested case-control and eight case-control studies) cumulatively involving a total of 1,963 endometrial cancer cases and 3,503 noncases were included in the analyses. Overall, comparing persons with circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin and A/L ratio in the top tertile with persons with concentrations of these biomarkers in the bottom tertile yielded SORs of 0.47 (95% CI: 0.34-0.65; I(2)  = 63.7%; n = 13), 2.19 (95% CI: 1.44-3.31; I(2)  = 64.2%; n = 7),and 0.45 (95% CI: 0.24-0.86; I(2)  = 90.1%; n = 5), respectively. Notably, there was an 18% reduction in risk for per each 5 μg/mL increment in circulating adiponectin concentrations (SOR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.74-0.90; I(2)  = 49%; n = 8). Stratifying by study characteristics and whether these studies considered or adjusted for potential confounders, the findings were robust in the analyses of circulating adiponectin and leptin. No evidence of publication bias was detected. In conclusion, the findings from this meta-analysis suggest that increased circulating adiponectin and A/L ratio or decreased leptin concentrations were associated with reduced risk of endometrial cancer. Further prospective designed studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Clinical human papillomavirus detection forecasts cervical cancer risk in women over 18 years of follow-up.

PURPOSE To describe the long-term (≥ 10 years) benefits of clinical human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing for cervical precancer and cancer risk prediction. METHODS Cervicovaginal lavages collected from 19,512 women attending a health maintenance program were retrospectively tested for HPV using a clinical test. HPV positives were tested for HPV16 and HPV18 individually using a research test. A Papanicolaou (Pap) result classified as atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) or more severe was considered abnormal. Women underwent follow-up prospectively with routine annual Pap testing up to 18 years. Cumulative incidence rates (CIRs) of ≥ grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3+) or cancer for enrollment test results were calculated. RESULTS A baseline negative HPV test provided greater reassurance against CIN3+ over the 18-year follow-up than a normal Pap (CIR, 0.90% v 1.27%). Although both baseline Pap and HPV tests predicted who would develop CIN3+ within the first 2 years of follow-up, only HPV testing predicted who would develop CIN3+ 10 to 18 years later (P = .004). HPV16- and HPV18-positive women with normal Pap were at elevated risk of CIN3+ compared with other HPV-positive women with normal Pap and were at similar risk of CIN3+ compared with women with a low-grade squamous intraepithelial Pap. CONCLUSION HPV testing to rule out cervical disease followed by Pap testing and possibly combined with the detection of HPV16 and HPV18 among HPV positives to identify those at immediate risk of CIN3+ would be an efficient algorithm for cervical cancer screening, especially in women age 30 years or older.

Association between CYP2D6 polymorphisms and outcomes among women with early stage breast cancer treated with tamoxifen.

CONTEXT The growth inhibitory effect of tamoxifen, which is used for the treatment of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, is mediated by its metabolites, 4-hydroxytamoxifen and endoxifen. The formation of active metabolites is catalyzed by the polymorphic cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) enzyme. OBJECTIVE To determine whether CYP2D6 variation is associated with clinical outcomes in women receiving adjuvant tamoxifen. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Retrospective analysis of German and US cohorts of patients treated with adjuvant tamoxifen for early stage breast cancer. The 1325 patients had diagnoses between 1986 and 2005 of stage I through III breast cancer and were mainly postmenopausal (95.4%). Last follow-up was in December 2008; inclusion criteria were hormone receptor positivity, no metastatic disease at diagnosis, adjuvant tamoxifen therapy, and no chemotherapy. DNA from tumor tissue or blood was genotyped for CYP2D6 variants associated with reduced (*10, *41) or absent (*3, *4, *5) enzyme activity. Women were classified as having an extensive (n=609), heterozygous extensive/intermediate (n=637), or poor (n=79) CYP2D6 metabolism. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Time to recurrence, event-free survival, disease-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS Median follow-up was 6.3 years. At 9 years of follow-up, the recurrence rates were 14.9% for extensive metabolizers, 20.9% for heterozygous extensive/intermediate metabolizers, and 29.0% for poor metabolizers, and all-cause mortality rates were 16.7%, 18.0%, and 22.8%, respectively. Compared with extensive metabolizers, there was a significantly increased risk of recurrence for heterozygous extensive/intermediate metabolizers (time to recurrence adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.90) and for poor metabolizers (time to recurrence HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.10-3.28). Compared with extensive metabolizers, those with decreased CYP2D6 activity (heterozygous extensive/intermediate and poor metabolism) had worse event-free survival (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06-1.68) and disease-free survival (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.61), but there was no significant difference in overall survival (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.88-1.51). CONCLUSION Among women with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen, there was an association between CYP2D6 variation and clinical outcomes, such that the presence of 2 functional CYP2D6 alleles was associated with better clinical outcomes and the presence of nonfunctional or reduced-function alleles with worse outcomes.

Birth weight and mammographic density among postmenopausal women in Sweden.

Birth weight is a significant predictor of breast cancer risk in adult life and mammary gland mass could be an intermediate stage in this long process. We have studied the association of birth size measurements with mammographic density, a marker of mammary gland mass. For a population-based sample of 893 postmenopausal women without previous cancer in Sweden, we retrieved information on birth size from birth records and their most recent mammography. Film mammograms of the medio-lateral oblique view were digitized and the Cumulus software was used for computer-assisted semi-automated thresholding of mammographic density. Results were analyzed using generalized linear models controlling for possible confounders. Mean percent mammographic density increased when comparing the extreme categories of birth weight (from 15.6% to 18.6%) and head circumference (from 15.5% to 20.4%), and the corresponding linear trends were statistically significant (p values 0.02 and 0.007, respectively). The associations were particularly strong when the cutoff for high versus low mammographic density was set at the relatively high value of 50%. Compared to women weighing 3001-3500 grams at birth, women with birth weights >4000g were at almost 3-fold risk of developing high mammographic density (odds ratio: 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 7.9). No association with mammographic density was evident with respect to birth length which, however, is known to be less accurately measured. These results indicate that adult breast density, a powerful predictor of breast cancer risk, has intrauterine roots, as reflected in birth size.

Clinicopathological and prognostic significance of Bmi-1 expression in human cervical cancer.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the clinical significance of Bmi-1 expression as a prognostic marker for cervical cancer. Design. Retrospectively collected data from a population-based cohort. SETTING Jiangsu Province Hospital. Population. Eighty-eight women diagnosed with cervical carcinoma between 2000 and 2003. METHODS RT-PCR assay was performed to determine Bmi-1 mRNA expression in 18 cervical cancer and noncancerous tissue samples and immunohistochemistry to detect Bmi-1 protein expression in 88 cervical cancer samples. The correlation between Bmi-1 expression and clinicopathological factors was analyzed. Additionally, statistical analyses were applied to test for prognostic associations. RNA interference was used to downregulate Bmi-1 expression in a cervical cancer cell line (HeLa). In vitro cytotoxicity was measured by the methylthiazoletetrazolium and colony formation assays. Effects of Bmi-1 inhibition on in vivo growth of cancer cells was detected by the tumorigenicity assay. Cell cycle distribution and cell apoptosis were measured by flow cytometry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The levels of Bmi-1 mRNA and protein expression in tissues were evaluated by RT-PCR and Western Blot assays. RESULTS The level of Bmi-1 mRNA expression in cervical cancer tissues was significantly higher than that in corresponding noncancerous tissues. High Bmi-1 expression was significantly correlated with poor tumor differentiation, advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and positive lymph node metastasis. Patients with high Bmi-1 expression showed shorter overall survival than those with low expression. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that high Bmi-1 expression was an independent prognostic factor. CONCLUSIONS RNA interference-mediated Bmi-1 inhibition could inhibit in vitro and in vivo growth, enhance apoptosis and induce cell cycle arrest of cervical cancer cells. Bmi-1 might be an independent prognostic marker for cervical cancer patients.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practice on second primary cancer screening among cancer survivors: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE The goal of this study was to examine the knowledge, attitude, and practice on second cancer screening among cancer survivors. METHODS Three focus group interviews were conducted with thirteen disease-free stomach, colorectal, breast and thyroid cancer survivors. Recurrent issues were identified and then placed into thematic categories. RESULTS None of the study participants had heard SPC, and they could not differentiate SPC from 'recurrence' or 'metastasis.' Survivors believed that they had been cured, and they were not aware of their increased risk of SPC. Although they had high awareness of cancer screening, they could not make a distinction between 'cancer screening' and 'routine surveillance test' after cancer treatment. Survivors said that they would have had the screening for SPC if they had known about it. They preferred physicians as the most reliable source for screening information. CONCLUSION Cancer survivors had limited knowledge about SPC, and lack of information was the main barrier for SPC screening. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS An educational intervention would help cancer survivors to understand their risk of SPC and the needs of screening after the first cancer.

Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk.

CONTEXT Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases. OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of smoking reduction on lung cancer incidence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observational population-based cohort study with up to 31 years of follow-up from the Copenhagen Centre for Prospective Population Studies, which administrates data from 3 longitudinal studies conducted in Copenhagen and suburbs, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, the Copenhagen Male Study, and the Glostrup Population Studies, Denmark. Participants were 11,151 men and 8563 women (N = 19,714) aged 20 to 93 years, who attended 2 consecutive examinations with a 5- to 10-year interval between 1964 and 1988. Participants underwent a physical examination and completed self-filled questionnaires about lifestyle habits. The study population was divided into 6 groups according to smoking habits: continued heavy smokers (> or =15 cigarettes/d), reducers (reduced from > or =15 cigarettes/d by minimum of 50% without quitting), continued light smokers (1-14 cigarettes/d), quitters (stopped between first and second examination), stable ex-smokers, and never smokers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Incident primary lung cancer cases assessed by record linkage with the National Cancer Registry until December 31, 2003. RESULTS There were 864 incident lung cancers during follow-up. Using Cox regression, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for lung cancer in reducers was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.98) compared with persistent heavy smokers. The HR for light smokers was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.35-0.56); for quitters, HR 0.50 (95% CI, 0.36-0.69), for stable ex-smokers, HR 0.17 (95% CI, 0.13-0.23), and for never smokers, HR 0.09 (95% CI, 0.06-0.13). CONCLUSION Among individuals who smoke 15 or more cigarettes per day, smoking reduction by 50% significantly reduces the risk of lung cancer.

Geovisual analytics to enhance spatial scan statistic interpretation: an analysis of U.S. cervical cancer mortality

BACKGROUND Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and its software implementation - SaTScan - are widely used for detecting and evaluating geographic clusters. However, two issues make using the method and interpreting its results non-trivial: (1) the method lacks cartographic support for understanding the clusters in geographic context and (2) results from the method are sensitive to parameter choices related to cluster scaling (abbreviated as scaling parameters), but the system provides no direct support for making these choices. We employ both established and novel geovisual analytics methods to address these issues and to enhance the interpretation of SaTScan results. We demonstrate our geovisual analytics approach in a case study analysis of cervical cancer mortality in the U.S.   RESULTS We address the first issue by providing an interactive visual interface to support the interpretation of SaTScan results. Our research to address the second issue prompted a broader discussion about the sensitivity of SaTScan results to parameter choices. Sensitivity has two components: (1) the method can identify clusters that, while being statistically significant, have heterogeneous contents comprised of both high-risk and low-risk locations and (2) the method can identify clusters that are unstable in location and size as the spatial scan scaling parameter is varied. To investigate cluster result stability, we conducted multiple SaTScan runs with systematically selected parameters. The results, when scanning a large spatial dataset (e.g., U.S. data aggregated by county), demonstrate that no single spatial scan scaling value is known to be optimal to identify clusters that exist at different scales; instead, multiple scans that vary the parameters are necessary. We introduce a novel method of measuring and visualizing reliability that facilitates identification of homogeneous clusters that are stable across analysis scales. Finally, we propose a logical approach to proceed through the analysis of SaTScan results. CONCLUSION The geovisual analytics approach described in this manuscript facilitates the interpretation of spatial cluster detection methods by providing cartographic representation of SaTScan results and by providing visualization methods and tools that support selection of SaTScan parameters. Our methods distinguish between heterogeneous and homogeneous clusters and assess the stability of clusters across analytic scales. METHOD We analyzed the cervical cancer mortality data for the United States aggregated by county between 2000 and 2004. We ran SaTScan on the dataset fifty times with different parameter choices. Our geovisual analytics approach couples SaTScan with our visual analytic platform, allowing users to interactively explore and compare SaTScan results produced by different parameter choices. The Standardized Mortality Ratio and reliability scores are visualized for all the counties to identify stable, homogeneous clusters. We evaluated our analysis result by comparing it to that produced by other independent techniques including the Empirical Bayes Smoothing and Kafadar spatial smoother methods. The geovisual analytics approach introduced here is developed and implemented in our Java-based Visual Inquiry Toolkit.

Risk of malignant neoplasms in patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis.

BACKGROUND For over 20 years the association between sarcoidosis and malignancy, particularly lymphoma and lung cancer, has been disputed with misclassification being the major concern. The aim of the present study was to analyse the incidence of malignancies in a cohort of patients with sarcoidosis by linkage to a nationwide population based cancer register. METHODS The cohort comprised 254 patients followed for a median of 25 years until death, emigration, or 31 December 1992, whichever came first. The expected number of cancer cases was calculated using the annual age and sex specific cancer rates from the Danish Cancer Registry. RESULTS Thirty six cancers were registered, three of which were misclassified as sarcoidosis, leaving 33 cancers compared with 23 expected (standardised incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.4; 95% CI 0.99 to 2.0). Five lung cancers were observed compared with 2.5 expected, yielding an SIR of 2.0 (95% CI 0.7 to 4.7). There was no incidence of lymphoma and only one case of leukaemia. There was a significant excess number of pharyngeal cancers based on two cases (SIR = 15.4; 95% CI 1.7 to 56). CONCLUSIONS This study does not support the theory of an association between sarcoidosis and malignancy, and the main reason other studies have shown such an association is most likely to have been due to selection bias and misclassification.

Prediagnostic levels of C-peptide, IGF-I, IGFBP -1, -2 and -3 and risk of endometrial cancer.

Conditions related to chronic hyperinsulinemia, such as obesity, noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus and polycystic ovary syndrome, are associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer. Elevated plasma IGF-I and decreased levels of IGF-binding proteins have been shown to be associated with increased risk of several cancer types that are frequent in affluent societies. We investigated for the first time in a prospective study the association of pre-diagnostic blood concentrations of C-peptide (a marker of pancreatic insulin production), IGF-I, IGFBP-1, -2 and -3 with endometrial cancer risk. A case-control study was nested within 3 cohorts in New York (USA), Umeå (Sweden) and Milan (Italy). It included 166 women with primary invasive endometrial cancer and 315 matched controls, of which 44 case and 78 control subjects were premenopausal at recruitment. Endometrial cancer risk increased with increasing levels of C-peptide (ptrend = 0.0002), up to an odds ratio (OR) of 4.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.91-11.8] for the highest quintile. This association remained after adjustment for BMI and other confounders [OR for the top quintile = 4.40 (1.65-11.7)]. IGFBP-1 levels were inversely related to endometrial cancer [ptrend = 0.002; OR in the upper quintile = 0.30 (0.15-0.62)], but the association was weakened and lost statistical significance after adjustment for confounders [ptrend = 0.06; OR in the upper quintile = 0.49 (0.22-1.07)]. Risk was unrelated to levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3. Chronic hyperinsulinemia, as reflected by increased circulating C-peptide, is associated with increased endometrial cancer risk. Decrease in the prevalence of chronic hyperinsulinemia, through changes in lifestyle or medication, is expected to prevent endometrial cancer.

Cancer survivors in the United States: prevalence across the survivorship trajectory and implications for care.

BACKGROUND Cancer survivors represent a growing population, heterogeneous in their need for medical care, psychosocial support, and practical assistance. To inform survivorship research and practice, this manuscript will describe the prevalent population of cancer survivors in terms of overall numbers and prevalence by cancer site and time since diagnosis. METHODS Incidence and survival data from 1975-2007 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and population projections from the United States Census Bureau. Cancer prevalence for 2012 and beyond was estimated using the Prevalence Incidence Approach Model, assuming constant future incidence and survival trends but dynamic projections of the U.S. population. RESULTS As of January 1, 2012, approximately 13.7 million cancer survivors were living in the United States with prevalence projected to approach 18 million by 2022. Sixty-four percent of this population have survived 5 years or more; 40% have survived 10 years or more; and 15% have survived 20 years or more after diagnosis. Over the next decade, the number of people who have lived 5 years or more after their cancer diagnosis is projected to increase approximately 37% to 11.9 million. CONCLUSIONS A coordinated agenda for research and practice is needed to address cancer survivors' long-term medical, psychosocial, and practical needs across the survivorship trajectory. IMPACT Prevalence estimates for cancer survivors across the survivorship trajectory will inform the national research agenda as well as future projections about the health service needs of this population.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination and screening in Spain.

BACKGROUND In Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11-14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. METHODS A multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1-5 years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS After the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350€ per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060€/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250€/YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. CONCLUSIONS In Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4-5 years represents the best balance between costs and benefits.

Comparisons of patient and physician expectations for cancer survivorship care.

PURPOSE To compare expectations for cancer survivorship care between patients and their physicians and between primary care providers (PCPs) and oncologists. METHODS Survivors and their physicians were surveyed to evaluate for expectations regarding physician participation in primary cancer follow-up, screening for other cancers, general preventive health, and management of comorbidities. RESULTS Of 992 eligible survivors and 607 physicians surveyed, 535 (54%) and 378 (62%) were assessable, respectively. Among physician respondents, 255 (67%) were PCPs and 123 (33%) were oncologists. Comparing patients with their oncologists, expectations were highly discrepant for screening for cancers other than the index one (agreement rate, 29%), with patients anticipating significantly more oncologist involvement. Between patients and their PCPs, expectations were most incongruent for primary cancer follow-up (agreement rate, 35%), with PCPs indicating they should contribute a much greater part to this aspect of care. Expectations between patients and their PCPs were generally more concordant than between patients and their oncologists. PCPs and oncologists showed high discordances in perceptions of their own roles for primary cancer follow-up, cancer screening, and general preventive health (agreement rates of 3%, 44%, and 51%, respectively). In the case of primary cancer follow-up, both PCPs and oncologists indicated they should carry substantial responsibility for this task. CONCLUSION Patients and physicians have discordant expectations with respect to the roles of PCPs and oncologists in cancer survivorship care. Uncertainties around physician roles and responsibilities can lead to deficiencies in care, supporting the need to make survivorship care planning a standard component in cancer management.

Relation between Medicare screening reimbursement and stage at diagnosis for older patients with colon cancer.

CONTEXT Medicare's reimbursement policy was changed in 1998 to provide coverage for screening colonoscopies for patients with increased colon cancer risk, and expanded further in 2001 to cover screening colonoscopies for all individuals. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the Medicare reimbursement policy changes were associated with an increase in either colonoscopy use or early stage colon cancer diagnosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Medicare linked database who were 67 years of age and older and had a primary diagnosis of colon cancer during 1992-2002, as well as a group of Medicare beneficiaries who resided in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results areas but who were not diagnosed with cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Trends in colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy use among Medicare beneficiaries without cancer were assessed using multivariate Poisson regression. Among the patients with cancer, stage was classified as early (stage I) vs all other (stages II-IV). Time was categorized as period 1 (no screening coverage, 1992-1997), period 2 (limited coverage, January 1998-June 2001), and period 3 (universal coverage, July 2001-December 2002). A multivariate logistic regression (outcome = early stage) was used to assess temporal trends in stage at diagnosis; an interaction term between tumor site and time was included. RESULTS Colonoscopy use increased from an average rate of 285/100,000 per quarter in period 1 to 889 and 1919/100,000 per quarter in periods 2 (P<.001) and 3 (P vs 2<.001), respectively. During the study period, 44,924 eligible patients were diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The proportion of patients diagnosed at an early stage increased from 22.5% in period 1 to 25.5% in period 2 and 26.3% in period 3 (P<.001 for each pairwise comparison). The changes in Medicare coverage were strongly associated with early stage at diagnosis for patients with proximal colon lesions (adjusted relative risk period 2 vs 1, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.26; adjusted relative risk period 3 vs 2, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.17) but weakly associated, if at all, for patients with distal colon lesions (adjusted relative risk period 2 vs 1, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.13; adjusted relative risk period 3 vs 2, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.05). CONCLUSIONS Expansion of Medicare reimbursement to cover colon cancer screening was associated with an increased use of colonoscopy for Medicare beneficiaries, and for those who were diagnosed with colon cancer, an increased probability of being diagnosed at an early stage. The selective effect of the coverage change on proximal colon lesions suggests that increased use of whole-colon screening modalities such as colonoscopy may have played a pivotal role.

Risk for breast cancer development determined by mammographic parenchymal pattern.

A classification of risk for developing breast cancer has been devised based solely on the appearance of the breast parenchyma by mammography. Four groups of patients were isolated. The study encompassed a five-year period and was done by reviewing the mammograms of all women over the age of 30 who had been examined at Hutzel Hospital, Detroit. The average time of followup would be approximately 2 1/2 years. Four groups had an incidence of developing breast cancer of 0.1, 0.4, 1.7, and 2.2. These parenchymal patterns are described and criteria for their identification are given.

Prospective study of body fat distribution and the risk of endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND Epidemiologic studies have found that overall obesity is positively related to endometrial cancer (EC) risk. However, data assessing the association between body fat distribution and risk of EC are still limited. METHODS We followed 51,948 women who first reported waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference in 1986 in the Nurses' Health Study. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was calculated. RESULTS During 24 years of follow-up, 449 incident invasive EC cases were diagnosed. In a multivariate analysis without adjusting for body mass index (BMI), the relative risks (RRs) for EC comparing extreme categories were 2.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-3.45) for WC and 1.69 (95% CI=1.20-2.40) for WHR. However, after adjustment of BMI, those positive associations were substantially attenuated and no longer significant; RR=1.08 (95% CI=0.69-1.67) for WC and 1.15 (95% CI=0.81-1.64) for WHR, respectively. CONCLUSION In our prospective cohort study, we found no independent association between body fat distribution and the risk of EC after adjustment for BMI.

Prevalence of Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus infection in homosexual men at beginning of and during the HIV epidemic.

CONTEXT Some studies have inferred that an epidemic of Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) infection in homosexual men in the United States occurred concurrently with that of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but there have been no direct measurements of KSHV prevalence at the beginning of the HIV epidemic. OBJECTIVES To determine the prevalence of KSHV infection in homosexual men in San Francisco, Calif, at the beginning of the HIV epidemic in 1978 and 1979 and to examine changes in prevalence of KSHV at time points from 1978 through 1996 in light of changes in sexual behavior. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of a clinic-based sample (n = 398) derived from the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort (ages 18-66 years) (n = 2666 for analyses herein) and from population-based samples from the San Francisco Men's Health Study (MHS) (ages 25-54 years) (n = 825 and 252) and the San Francisco Young Men's Health Study (YMHS) (ages 18-29 years) (n = 428-976, and 557); behavioral studies were longitudinal and KSHV prevalence studies were cross-sectional. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Antibodies against KSHV and HIV; sexual behaviors. RESULTS The prevalence of KSHV infection in 1978 and 1979 was 26.5% of 235 (a random sample) overall (weighted for HIV infection) vs 6.9% (128/1842) for HIV in the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort sample. The prevalence of KSHV infection remained essentially unchanged between an MHS sample of 252 in 1984 and 1985 (29.6%) and a YMHS sample of 557 in 1995 and 1996 (26.4%), while HIV prevalence dropped from 49.5% of 825 in 1984 and 1985 (MHS) to 17.6% of 428 in 1992 and 1993 (YMHS). The proportion of men practicing unprotected receptive anal intercourse with 1 or more partners declined from 54% to 11% during the 1984 through 1993 period (MHS) with similar though slightly higher values in the YMHS in 1992 and 1993; whereas for unprotected oral intercourse it ranged between 60% and 90% in the 1984 through 1996 period (MHS and YMHS). CONCLUSIONS Infection with KSHV was already highly prevalent in homosexual men when the HIV epidemic began in San Francisco, and its prevalence has been maintained at a nearly constant level. Any declines in the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma do not appear to be caused by a decline in KSHV transmission.

American Society of Clinical Oncology policy statement: the role of the oncologist in cancer prevention and risk assessment.

Oncologists have a critical opportunity to utilize risk assessment and cancer prevention strategies to interrupt the initiation or progression of cancer in cancer survivors and individuals at high risk of developing cancer. Expanding knowledge about the natural history and prognosis of cancers positions oncologists to advise patients regarding the risk of second malignancies and treatment-related cancers. In addition, as recognized experts in the full spectrum of cancer care, oncologists are afforded opportunities for involvement in community-based cancer prevention activities. Although oncologists are currently providing many cancer prevention and risk assessment services to their patients, economic barriers exist, including inadequate or lack of insurance, that may compromise uniform patient access to these services. Additionally, insufficient reimbursement for existing and developing interventions may discourage patient access to these services. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), the medical society representing cancer specialists involved in patient care and clinical research, is committed to supporting oncologists in their wide-ranging involvement in cancer prevention. This statement on risk assessment and prevention counseling, although not intended to be a comprehensive overview of cancer prevention describes the current role of oncologists in risk assessment and prevention; provides examples of risk assessment and prevention activities that should be offered by oncologists; identifies potential opportunities for coordination between oncologists and primary care physicians in prevention education and coordination of care for cancer survivors; describes ASCO's involvement in education and training of oncologists regarding prevention; and proposes improvement in the payment environment to encourage patient access to these services.

Predictors of mammographic density: insights gained from a novel regression analysis of a twin study.

Understanding which factors influence mammographically dense and nondense areas is important because percent mammographic density adjusted for age is a strong, continuously distributed risk factor for breast cancer, especially when adjusted for weight or body mass index. Using computer-assisted methods, we measured mammographically dense areas for 571 monozygotic and 380 dizygotic Australian and North American twin pairs ages 40 to 70 years. We used a novel regression modeling approach in which each twin's measure of dense and nondense area was regressed against one or both of the twin's and co-twin's covariates. The nature of changes to regression estimates with the inclusion of the twin and/or co-twin's covariates can be evaluated for consistency with causal and/or other models. By causal, we mean that if it were possible to vary a covariate experimentally then the expected value of the outcome measure would change. After adjusting for the individual's weight, the co-twin associations with weight were attenuated, consistent with a causal effect of weight on mammographic measures, which in absolute log cm(2)/kg was thrice stronger for nondense than dense area. After adjusting for weight, later age at menarche, and greater height were associated with greater dense and lesser nondense areas in a manner inconsistent with causality. The associations of dense and nondense areas with parity are consistent with a causal effect and/or within-person confounding. The associations between mammographic density measures and height are consistent with shared early life environmental factors that predispose to both height and percent mammographic density and possibly breast cancer risk.

Multipoint Kras oncogene mutations potentially indicate mucinous carcinoma on the entire spectrum of mucinous ovarian neoplasms

Kras mutation is a common phenomenon in many human neoplasms. We aimed to assess the Kras mutational status along the histological continuum from normal ovaries to the development of benign, borderline and malignant ovarian mucinous neoplasms. We analyzed 41 cases of malignant, 10 cases of borderline, 7 cases of benign mucinous ovarian tumors and 7 cases of normal ovarian tissue. The prevalence of Kras mutations in the normal ovary was 0.00% (n=0/7), while the prevalence in benign, borderline and malignant mucinous neoplasms was 57.14% (n=4/7), 90.00% (n=9/10) and 75.61% (n=31/41), respectively. Multiple Kras mutations were detected in 6 cases of mucinous carcinoma, including 5 double mutations with G13D/V14I (n=1), G12V/G13S (n=1), G12D/G13S (n=3) and one triple mutation with A11V/G13N/V14I (n=1). We identified six cases with 3 novel Kras mutations not previously described in the COSMIC database, which included A11V (n=3) and V14I (n=2) in mucinous carcinomas, and A11T (n=1) in a mucinous borderline tumor. In conclusion, Kras mutation appears to be one of the imperative events in the ovarian mucinous adenoma-borderline tumor-carcinoma sequence, as increased numbers of Kras mutations have been shown to be the strongest predictor of unequivocal malignancy in ovarian mucinous neoplasms.

Vaginal progesterone, cerclage or cervical pessary for preventing preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnant women with a history of preterm birth and a sonographic short cervix.

OBJECTIVE To compare the outcome of pregnancy in cohorts of women with singleton pregnancy and history of preterm birth and sonographic short cervix managed with different treatment protocols, namely cerclage, vaginal progesterone or cervical pessary. METHODS This was a comparison of three management protocols for women with singleton pregnancy and a high risk of preterm birth because of a prior spontaneous preterm birth before 34 weeks and a shortened cervical length detected by transvaginal ultrasound. The study included 142 women who were initially treated with cerclage (USA), 59 with vaginal progesterone (UK) and 42 with cervical pessary (Spain). Perinatal outcomes were compared between the three cohorts. RESULTS There were no statistically significant differences in perinatal losses, neonatal morbidity and preterm births among the three groups, apart from a higher rate of preterm birth before 34 weeks' gestation after treatment with vaginal progesterone in comparison with treatment with cervical pessary (32% vs 12%; relative risk (RR) = 2.70; 95% CI, 1.10-6.67). When only the subgroups of women with cervical length < 25 mm, irrespective of gestational age, were compared, the difference between these two cohorts was not statistically significant (RR = 2.21; 95% CI, 0.83-5.89). CONCLUSION Cerclage, vaginal progesterone and pessary appear to have similar effectiveness as management strategies in women with singleton pregnancy, previous spontaneous preterm birth and short cervix. Direct randomized comparisons of these strategies, or combinations thereof, are needed to determine optimal management.

Type 2 diabetes and subsequent incidence of breast cancer in the Nurses' Health Study.

OBJECTIVE Hyperinsulinemia may promote mammary carcinogenesis. Insulin resistance has been linked to an increased risk of breast cancer and is also characteristic of type 2 diabetes. We prospectively evaluated the association between type 2 diabetes and invasive breast cancer incidence in the Nurses' Health Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 116,488 female nurses who were 30-55 years old and free of cancer in 1976 were followed through 1996 for the occurrence of type 2 diabetes and through 1998 for incident invasive breast cancer, verified by medical records and pathology reports. RESULTS During 2.3 million person-years of follow-up, we identified 6,220 women with type 2 diabetes and 5,189 incident cases of invasive breast cancer. Women with type 2 diabetes had a modestly elevated incidence of breast cancer (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.17; 95% CI 1.01-1.35) compared with women without diabetes, independent of age, obesity, family history of breast cancer, history of benign breast disease, reproductive factors, physical activity, and alcohol consumption. This association was apparent among postmenopausal women (1.16; 0.98-1.62) but not premenopausal women (0.83; 0.48-1.42). The association was predominant among women with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (1.22; 1.01-1.47). CONCLUSIONS Women with type 2 diabetes may have a slightly increased risk of breast cancer.

Timing of menarche and first full-term birth in relation to breast cancer risk.

Ages at menarche and first birth are established risk factors for breast cancer. The interval between these ages may also affect risk, since the breast is more susceptible to carcinogenic insults during this period than during the parous period. However, few investigators have studied this relation. Using logistic regression, the authors evaluated associations between the timing of reproductive events and breast cancer risk among 4,013 cases and 4,069 controls enrolled in a multicenter, population-based US case-control study of White and African-American women (1994-1998). For White, parous premenopausal and postmenopausal women, those who had an interval of > or =16 years between the ages of menarche and first birth had 1.5-fold (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 2.2) and 1.4-fold (95% CI: 1.1, 1.8) increased risks of breast cancer, respectively, in comparison with those who had < or =5 years between these ages. Adjusting for age at first birth altered these risk estimates somewhat, to odds ratios of 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8, 2.9) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.6, 1.5), respectively. These associations were stronger for lobular and hormone-receptor-positive tumors but were absent among premenopausal African-American women. The authors conclude that the interval between age at menarche and age at first birth is associated with the risk of hormonally sensitive types of breast cancer, particularly among White women.

Risk factors at medical school for subsequent professional misconduct: multicentre retrospective case-control study

OBJECTIVE To determine whether there are risk factors in a doctor's time at medical school that are associated with subsequent professional misconduct. DESIGN Matched case-control study. Setting Records from medical schools and the General Medical Council (GMC). PARTICIPANTS 59 doctors who had graduated from any one of eight medical schools in the United Kingdom in 1958-97 and had a proved finding of serious professional misconduct in GMC proceedings in 1999-2004 (cases); 236 controls (four for each case) were selected by systematic sampling from matching graduation cohorts. Case-control status was revealed by the GMC after completion of data entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Odds ratios for being a "case," with multivariable conditional logistic regression of potential risk factors including pre-admission characteristics and progress during the course. These data were obtained from anonymised copies of the students' progress files held by their original medical schools. RESULTS Univariate conditional logistic regression analysis found that cases were more likely to be men, to be of lower estimated social class, and to have had academic difficulties during their medical course, especially in the early years. Multivariable analysis showed that male sex (odds ratio 9.80, 95% confidence interval 2.43 to 39.44, P=0.001), lower social class (4.28, 1.52 to 12.09, P=0.006), and failure of early or preclinical examinations (5.47, 2.17 to 13.79, P<0.001) were independently associated with being a case. CONCLUSIONS This small study suggests that male sex, a lower socioeconomic background, and early academic difficulties at medical school could be risk factors for subsequent professional misconduct. The findings are preliminary and should be interpreted with caution. Most doctors with risk factors will not come before the GMC's disciplinary panels.

A comparison of cancer screening practices in cancer survivors and in the general population: the Korean national health and nutrition examination survey (KNHANES) 2001–2007

This study aimed to describe cancer screening rates for second primary cancer among cancer survivors in Korea, and to compare these rates with those of two control groups: individuals without a history of cancer but with other chronic diseases, and individuals without a history of cancer and without other chronic diseases. The study is a cross-sectional analysis of 15,556 adults ≥30 years old who participated in the 2001, 2005, and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES). The prevalence of breast, cervical, gastric, and colorectal cancer screening examinations according to national guidelines was assessed and compared to two control groups. Screening rates among cancer survivors were 48.5, 54.7, 34.7, and 28.6% for breast, cervical, gastric, and colorectal cancer screening, respectively. Cancer survivors showed higher screening rates for all four cancer sites compared with both control groups, but breast cancer screening was only statistically significant after adjusting gender, age, marital status, education, income, working status, health insurance, smoking and drinking status, and self-reported health status. Cancer survivors were more likely than individuals without a cancer history to obtain screening examinations according to recommended guidelines. Still, screening rates even among survivors were suboptimal, emphasizing the need for a more systematic approach to second primary cancer screening and prevention.

Colorectal cancer survival in socioeconomic groups in England: variation is mainly in the short term after diagnosis.

UNLABELLED The objective of this study was to examine differences in cancer survival between socioeconomic groups in England, with particular attention to survival in the short term of follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS Individuals diagnosed with colorectal cancer between 1996 and 2004 in England were identified from cancer registry records. Five-year cumulative relative survival and excess death rates were computed. RESULTS For colon cancer there was a very high excess death rate in the first month of follow-up, and the excess death rate was highest in the socioeconomically deprived groups. In subsequent periods, excess mortality rates were much lower and there was less socioeconomic variation. The pattern of variation in excess death rates was generally similar in rectal cancer but the socioeconomic difference in death rates persisted several years longer. If the excess death rates in the entire colorectal cancer patient population were the same as those observed in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile, the annual reduction would be 360 deaths in colon cancer and 336 deaths in rectal cancer patients. These deaths occurred almost entirely in the first month and the first year after diagnosis. CONCLUSION Recent developments in the national cancer control agenda have included an increasing emphasis on outcome measures, with short-term cancer survival an operational measure of variation and progress in cancer control. In providing clues to the nature of the survival differences between socioeconomic groups, the results presented here give strong support for this strategy.

The prognostic impact of the platelet distribution width-to-platelet count ratio in patients with breast cancer

Activated platelets promote tumor cell growth, angiogenesis, and invasion. Platelet activity can be inferred by platelet volume indices (PVIs), which include platelet distribution width (PDW), mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width-to-platelet count ratio (PDW/P), and mean platelet volume-to-platelet count ratio. Platelets and platelet-related markers, such as the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, have been found to be significant prognostic factors in patients with breast cancer. However, the role of PVIs for predicting survival in breast cancer remains unknown; hence, we performed this retrospective analysis of 275 patients with breast cancer. PVIs were compared with clinicopathological variables, and were assessed to identify independent indicators associated with disease-free survival (DFS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. An elevated PDW/P significantly correlated with age and HER2 status. Univariate analysis revealed that elevated PDW, MPV, and PDW/P as well as tumor size, nuclear grade, and lymph node involvement were significantly associated with inferior DFS rates (tumor size: p<0.01; nuclear grade, lymph node involvement, PDW, MPV, and PDW/P: p<0.05). On multivariate analysis, a large tumor size and elevated PDW/P were significant prognostic factors for DFS, with hazard ratios of 3.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-8.47) and 2.99 (95% CI: 1.18-7.57), respectively (p<0.05). Our study is the first to reveal that an elevated PDW/P significantly reduces DFS in patients with breast carcinoma. Measuring the PDW/P is simple, relatively inexpensive, and almost universally available using routine blood counts; this makes it an attractive biomarker for improved risk assessment.

The ATM missense mutation p.Ser49Cys (c.146C>G) and the risk of breast cancer.

Homozygous mutation in the ATM gene causes ataxia telangiectasia and heterozygous mutation carriers may be at increased risk of breast cancer. We studied a total of 22 ATM variants; 18 variants were analyzed in one of two large population-based studies from the U.S. and Poland, and four variants were analyzed in all 2,856 breast cancer cases and 3,344 controls from the two studies. The missense mutation Ser49Cys (c.146C>G, p. S49C), carried by approximately 2% of subjects, was more common in cases than controls in both study populations, combined odds ratio (OR) 1.69 (95% CI, 1.19-2.40; P=0.004). Another missense mutation at approximately 2% frequency, Phe858Leu (c.2572T>C, p. F858L), was associated with a significant increased risk in the U.S. study but not in Poland, and had a combined OR of 1.44 (95% CI, 0.98-2.11; P=0.06). These analyses provide the most convincing evidence thus far that missense mutations in ATM, particularly p. S49C, may be breast cancer susceptibility alleles. Because of their low frequency, even larger sample sizes are required to more firmly establish these associations.

Association between the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 and patient wait times and travel distance for chemotherapy.

CONTEXT The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA) altered reimbursements for outpatient chemotherapy drugs and drug administration services. Anecdotal reports suggest that these adjustments may have negatively affected access to chemotherapy for Medicare beneficiaries. OBJECTIVE To compare patient wait times and travel distances for chemotherapy before and after the enactment of the MMA. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Analysis of a nationally representative 5% sample of claims from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for the period 2003 through 2006. Patients were Medicare beneficiaries with incident breast cancer, colorectal cancer, leukemia, lung cancer, or lymphoma who received chemotherapy in inpatient hospital, institutional outpatient, or physician office settings. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Days from incident diagnosis to first chemotherapy visit and distance traveled for treatment, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, cancer type, geographic region, comorbid conditions, and year of diagnosis and treatment. RESULTS There were 5082 incident cases of breast cancer, colorectal cancer, leukemia, lung cancer, or lymphoma in 2003; 5379 cases in 2004; 5116 cases in 2005; and 5288 cases in 2006. Approximately 70% of patients received treatment in physician office settings in each year. Although the distribution of treatment settings in 2004 and 2005 was not significantly different from 2003 (P = .24 and P = .72, respectively), there was a small but significant change from 2003 to 2006 (P = .02). The proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy in inpatient settings decreased from 10.2% in 2003 to 8.8% in 2006 (P = .03), and the proportion in institutional outpatient settings increased from 21.1% to 22.5% (P = .004). The proportion in physician offices remained at 68.7% (P = .29). The median time from diagnosis to initial chemotherapy visit was 28 days in 2003, 27 days in 2004, 29 days in 2005, and 28 days in 2006. In multivariate analyses, average wait times for chemotherapy were 1.96 days longer in 2005 than in 2003 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-3.80 days; P = .04) but not significantly different in 2006 (0.88 days; 95% CI, -0.96 to 2.71 days; P = .35). Median travel distance was 7 miles (11.2 km) in 2003 and 8 miles (12.8 km) in 2004 through 2006. After adjustment, average travel distance remained slightly longer in 2004 (1.47 miles [2.35 km]; 95% CI, 0.87-2.07 miles [1.39-3.31 km]; P < .001), 2005 (1.19 miles [1.90 km]; 95% CI, 0.58-1.80 miles [0.93-2.88 km]; P < .001), and 2006 (1.30 miles [2.08 km]; 95% CI, 0.69-1.90 miles [1.10-3.04 km]; P < .001) compared with 2003. CONCLUSION There have not been major changes in travel distance and patient wait times for chemotherapy in the Medicare population since 2003, the year before MMA-related changes in reimbursement.

LincRNA-p21 suppresses target mRNA translation.

Mammalian long intergenic noncoding RNAs (lincRNAs) are best known for modulating transcription. Here we report a posttranscriptional function for lincRNA-p21 as a modulator of translation. Association of the RNA-binding protein HuR with lincRNA-p21 favored the recruitment of let-7/Ago2 to lincRNA-p21, leading to lower lincRNA-p21 stability. Under reduced HuR levels, lincRNA-p21 accumulated in human cervical carcinoma HeLa cells, increasing its association with JUNB and CTNNB1 mRNAs and selectively lowering their translation. With elevated HuR, lincRNA-p21 levels declined, which in turn derepressed JunB and β-catenin translation and increased the levels of these proteins. We propose that HuR controls translation of a subset of target mRNAs by influencing lincRNA-p21 levels. Our findings uncover a role for lincRNA as a posttranscriptional inhibitor of translation.

Intrinsic genetic characteristics determine tumor-modifying capacity of fibroblasts: matrix metalloproteinase-3 5A/5A genotype enhances breast cancer cell invasion

Stromal fibroblasts can contribute to tumor invasion through the release of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). Population studies have suggested that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in MMP genes influence levels of expression and may be associated with breast cancer risk and with disease progression. This study directly examined the impact of MMP SNP genotype on the ability of host fibroblasts to promote tumor cell invasion. Primary breast fibroblasts were isolated from patients with (n = 13) or without (n = 19) breast cancer, and their ability to promote breast cancer cell invasion was measured in in vitro invasion assays. Fibroblast invasion-promoting capacity (IPC) was analyzed in relation to donor type (tumor or non-tumor patient), MMP-1, MMP-3, and MMP-9 SNP genotype and MMP activity using independent samples t test and analysis of variance. All statistical tests were two-sided. Tumor-derived fibroblasts promoted higher levels of invasion than normal fibroblasts (p = 0.041). When IPC was related to genotype, higher levels of IPC were generated by tumor fibroblasts with the high-expressing MMP-3 5A/5A genotype compared with the 5A/6A and 6A/6A genotypes (p = 0.05 and 0.07, respectively), and this was associated with enhanced MMP-3 release. The functional importance of MMP-3 was demonstrated by enhanced invasion in the presence of recombinant MMP-3, whereas reduction occurred in the presence of a specific MMP-3 inhibitor. An inverse relationship was demonstrated between fibroblast IPC and the high-expressing MMP-1 genotype (p = 0.031), but no relationship was seen with MMP-9 SNP status. In contrast, normal fibroblasts showed no variation in IPC in relation to MMP genotype, with MMP-3 5A/5A fibroblasts exhibiting significantly lower levels of IPC than their tumor-derived counterparts (p = 0.04). This study has shown that tumor-derived fibroblasts exhibit higher levels of IPC than normal fibroblasts and that the MMP-3 5A/5A genotype contributes to this through enhanced MMP-3 release. Despite a high-expressing genotype, normal fibroblasts do not exhibit higher IPC or enhanced MMP release. This suggests that more complex changes occur in tumor-derived fibroblasts, enabling full expression of the MMP SNP genotype and these possibly are epigenetic in nature. The results do suggest that, in women with breast cancer, a high-expressing MMP-3 genotype may promote tumor progression more effectively.

Effect of osteoporosis treatments on risk of non-vertebral fractures: review and meta-analysis of intention-to-treat studies

Most osteoporosis treatments have proven efficacy in reducing the risk of vertebral fractures, whereas evidence is less straightforward for prevention of non-vertebral fractures. Conclusions as to the efficacy of a treatment should be based primarily on analyses of the intention to treat (ITT) population rather than on exploratory subgroup analyses; however, non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy has been largely derived by post-hoc subgroup analyses. This review and meta-analysis was performed to assess non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy of several osteoporosis therapies, including a more stringent assessment of the ITT populations. Data on non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy, a defined endpoint of the ITT analyses and confirmed by radiographs, were obtained from randomized, placebo-controlled, phase III clinical trials of at least 3-year duration. Meta-analyses were performed for the two bisphosphonates, alendronate and risedronate. Relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and statistical significance for active treatment compared with placebo were calculated. Eleven clinical trials met the criteria for review, three of which showed statistically significant ( P ≤0.05) non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy in the ITT population: two trials with risedronate and one trial with strontium. A meta-analysis showed significant reductions in the relative risk of non-vertebral fracture for both alendronate (RR=0.86; 95% CI: 0.76–0.97, P =0.012) and risedronate (RR=0.81; 95% CI: 0.71–0.92, P =0.001). Risedronate and strontium ranelate were the only treatments to show non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy in this robust assessment of anti-fracture efficacy of osteoporosis therapy using ITT populations in trials of 3 years or more in duration. Risedronate was the only agent shown to demonstrate efficacy in more than one trial. Meta-analysis showed that both alendronate and risedronate provide non-vertebral anti-fracture efficacy.

Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, metabolic profile, and breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (obesity, glucose intolerance, low serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], high serum triglycerides, hypertension) is high and increasing in parallel with an increasing breast cancer incidence worldwide. HDL-C represents an important aspect of the syndrome, yet its role in breast cancer is still undefined. METHODS In two population-based screening surveys during 1977-1983 and 1985-1987, serum HDL-C was assayed enzymatically among 38,823 Norwegian women aged 17-54 years at entry. Height, weight, blood pressure, serum lipids, fat and energy intake, physical activity, parity, oral contraceptive use, hormone therapy use, alcohol intake, and tobacco use were also assessed. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to estimate the relative risk (RR) of breast cancer associated with serum HDL-C levels and to adjust for potential confounding variables. We performed stratified analyses to evaluate effect modification by body mass index (BMI) and menopausal status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 17.2 years, we identified 708 cases of invasive breast cancer. In multivariable analysis, the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer was inversely related to quartile of HDL-C (P(trend) =.02). Among women with HDL-C above 1.64 mmol/L (highest quartile) versus below 1.20 mmol/L (lowest quartile), the relative risk was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.58 to 0.97). The HDL-C association was confined to women in the heavier subgroup (BMI > or =25 kg/m2), for whom the relative risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in those with HDL-C above 1.64 mmol/L versus below 1.20 mmol/L was 0.43 (95% CI = 0.28 to 0.67; P(trend)<.001; P(interaction) =.001). CONCLUSION Low HDL-C, as part of the metabolic syndrome, is associated with increased postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

Incidence and risk of central nervous system metastases as site of first recurrence in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer treated with adjuvant trastuzumab.

BACKGROUND Central nervous system (CNS) disease as the site of first relapse after exposure to adjuvant trastuzumab has been reported. We carried out comprehensive meta-analysis to determine the risk of CNS metastases as the first site of recurrence in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer who received adjuvant trastuzumab. METHODS Eligible studies include randomized trials of adjuvant trastuzumab administered for 1 year to patients with HER2-positive breast cancer who reported CNS metastases as first site of disease recurrence. Statistical analyses were conducted to calculate the incidence, relative risk (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using fixed-effects inverse variance and random-effects models. RESULTS A total of 9020 patients were included. The incidence of CNS metastases as first site of disease recurrence in HER2-positive patients receiving adjuvant trastuzumab was 2.56% (95% CI 2.07% to 3.01%) compared with 1.94% (95% CI 1.54% to 2.38%) in HER2-positive patients who did not receive adjuvant trastuzumab. The RR of the CNS as first site of relapse in trastuzumab-treated patients was 1.35 (95% CI 1.02-1.78, P = 0.038) compared with control arms without trastuzumab therapy. The ratio of CNS metastases to total number of recurrence events was 16.94% (95% CI 10.85% to 24.07%) and 8.33% (95% CI 6.49% to 10.86%) for the trastuzumab-treated and control groups, respectively. No statistically significant differences were found based on trastuzumab schedule or median follow-up time. No evidence of publication bias was observed. CONCLUSIONS Adjuvant trastuzumab is associated with a significant increased risk of CNS metastases as the site of first recurrence in HER2-positive breast cancer patients.

Risk of cancer after low doses of ionising radiation: retrospective cohort study in 15 countries.

OBJECTIVES To provide direct estimates of risk of cancer after protracted low doses of ionising radiation and to strengthen the scientific basis of radiation protection standards for environmental, occupational, and medical diagnostic exposures. DESIGN Multinational retrospective cohort study of cancer mortality. SETTING Cohorts of workers in the nuclear industry in 15 countries. PARTICIPANTS 407 391 workers individually monitored for external radiation with a total follow-up of 5.2 million person years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS Estimates of excess relative risks per sievert (Sv) of radiation dose for mortality from cancers other than leukaemia and from leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, the main causes of death considered by radiation protection authorities. RESULTS The excess relative risk for cancers other than leukaemia was 0.97 per Sv, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 1.97. Analyses of causes of death related or unrelated to smoking indicate that, although confounding by smoking may be present, it is unlikely to explain all of this increased risk. The excess relative risk for leukaemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia was 1.93 per Sv (< 0 to 8.47). On the basis of these estimates, 1-2% of deaths from cancer among workers in this cohort may be attributable to radiation. CONCLUSIONS These estimates, from the largest study of nuclear workers ever conducted, are higher than, but statistically compatible with, the risk estimates used for current radiation protection standards. The results suggest that there is a small excess risk of cancer, even at the low doses and dose rates typically received by nuclear workers in this study.

Cancer treatment and survivorship statistics, 2014.

The number of cancer survivors continues to increase due to the aging and growth of the population and improvements in early detection and treatment. In order for the public health community to better serve these survivors, the American Cancer Society and the National Cancer Institute collaborated to estimate the number of current and future cancer survivors using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program registries. In addition, current treatment patterns for the most common cancer types are described based on information in the National Cancer Data Base and the SEER and SEER-Medicare linked databases; treatment-related side effects are also briefly described. Nearly 14.5 million Americans with a history of cancer were alive on January 1, 2014; by January 1, 2024, that number will increase to nearly 19 million. The 3 most common prevalent cancers among males are prostate cancer (43%), colorectal cancer (9%), and melanoma (8%), and those among females are cancers of the breast (41%), uterine corpus (8%), and colon and rectum (8%). The age distribution of survivors varies substantially by cancer type. For example, the majority of prostate cancer survivors (62%) are aged 70 years or older, whereas less than one-third (32%) of melanoma survivors are in this older age group. It is important for clinicians to understand the unique medical and psychosocial needs of cancer survivors and to proactively assess and manage these issues. There are a growing number of resources that can assist patients, caregivers, and health care providers in navigating the various phases of cancer survivorship.

Case-control study of endogenous steroid hormones and endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND It has been suggested that identified risk factors for endometrial cancer operate through a single etiologic pathway, i.e., exposure to relatively high levels of unopposed estrogen (estrogen in the absence of progestins). Only a few studies, however, have addressed this issue directly. PURPOSE We assessed the risk of developing endometrial cancer among both premenopausal and postmenopausal women in relation to the circulating levels of steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). The independent effect of hormones was assessed after adjustment for other known risk factors. METHODS The data used in the analysis are from a case-control study conducted in five geographic regions in the United States. Incident cases were newly diagnosed during the period from June 1, 1987, through May 15, 1990. The case patients, aged 20-74 years, were matched to control subjects by age, race, and geographic region. The community control subjects were obtained by random-digit-dialing procedures (for subjects 20-64 years old) and from files of the Health Care Financing Administration (for subjects > or = 65 years old). Additional control subjects who were having a hysterectomy performed for benign conditions were obtained from the participating centers. Women reporting use of exogenous estrogens or oral contraceptives within 6 months of interview were excluded, resulting in 68 case patients and 107 control subjects among premenopausal women and 208 case patients and 209 control subjects among postmenopausal women. The hormone analyses were performed on blood samples obtained from case patients or from hysterectomy control subjects before surgery. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by use of an unconditional logistic regression analysis after we controlled for matching variables and potential confounders. All P values were two-sided. RESULTS High circulating levels of androstenedione were associated with 3.6-fold and 2.8-fold increased risks among premenopausal and postmenopausal women, respectively, after adjustment for other factors (P for trend = .01 and < .001, respectively). Risks related to other hormone fractions varied by menopausal status. Among postmenopausal women, a reduced risk was associated with high SHBG levels and persisted after adjustment was made for obesity and other factors (OR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.27-0.95). High estrone levels were associated with increased risk (OR = 3.8; 95% CI = 2.2-6.6), although adjustment for other risk factors (particularly body mass index) diminished the effect (OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.2-4.4). Albumin-bound estradiol (E2), a marker of the bioavailable fraction, also remained an important risk factor after adjustment was made for other factors (OR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.0-3.9). In contrast, high concentrations of total, free, and albumin-bound E2 were unrelated to increased risk in premenopausal women. In both premenopausal and postmenopausal groups, risks associated with obesity and fat distribution were not affected by adjustment for hormones. CONCLUSION High endogenous levels of unopposed estrogen are related to increased risk of endometrial cancer, but their independence from other risk factors is inconsistent with being a common underlying biologic pathway through which all risk factors for endometrial cancer operate. IMPLICATIONS Further research should focus on alternative endocrinologic mechanisms for risk associated with obesity and body fat distribution and for the biologic relevance of the increased risk associated with androstenedione in both premenopausal and postmenopausal disease.

Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know.

High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

Independent Association of Lobular Involution and Mammographic Breast Density With Breast Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND Lobular involution, or age-related atrophy of breast lobules, is inversely associated with breast cancer risk, and mammographic breast density (MBD) is positively associated with breast cancer risk. METHODS To evaluate whether lobular involution and MBD are independently associated with breast cancer risk in women with benign breast disease, we performed a nested cohort study among women (n = 2666) with benign breast disease diagnosed at Mayo Clinic between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 1991 and a mammogram available within 6 months of the diagnosis. Women were followed up for an average of 13.3 years to document any breast cancer incidence. Lobular involution was categorized as none, partial, or complete; parenchymal pattern was classified using the Wolfe classification as N1 (nondense), P1, P2 (ductal prominence occupying <25%, or >25% of the breast, respectively), or DY (extremely dense). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess associations of lobular involution and MBD with breast cancer risk were estimated using adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. All tests of statistical significance were two-sided. RESULTS After adjustment for MBD, having no or partial lobular involution was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer than having complete involution (none: HR of breast cancer incidence = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.39 to 4.94; partial: HR of breast cancer incidence = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.53; P(trend) = .002). Similarly, after adjustment for involution, having dense breasts was associated with higher risk of breast cancer than having nondense breasts (for DY: HR of breast cancer incidence = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.73; for P2: HR of breast cancer incidence = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.20 to 3.21; for P1: HR of breast cancer incidence = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.67 to 2.26; P(trend) = .02). Having a combination of no involution and dense breasts was associated with higher risk of breast cancer than having complete involution and nondense breasts (HR of breast cancer incidence = 4.08, 95% CI = 1.72 to 9.68; P = .006). CONCLUSION Lobular involution and MBD are independently associated with breast cancer incidence; combined, they are associated with an even greater risk for breast cancer.

Breast cancer clusters in the northeast United States: a geographic analysis.

High breast cancer mortality rates have been reported in the northeastern part of the United States, with recent attention focused on Long Island, New York. In this study, the authors investigate whether the high breast cancer mortality is evenly spread over the Northeast, in the sense that any observed clusters of deaths can be explained by chance alone, or whether there are clusters of statistical significance. Demographic data and age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for women were obtained for all 244 counties in 11 northeastern states and for the District of Columbia for 1988-1992. A recently developed spatial scan statistic is used, which searches for clusters of cases without specifying their size or location ahead of time, and which tests for their statistical significance while adjusting for the multiple testing inherent in such a procedure. The basic analysis is adjusted for age, with further analyses examining how the results are affected by incorporating race, urbanicity, and parity as confounding variables. There is a statistically significant and geographically broad cluster of breast cancer deaths in the New York City-Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area (p = 0.0001), which has a 7.4% higher mortality rate than the rest of the Northeast. The cluster remains significant when race, urbanicity, and/or parity are included as confounding variables. Four smaller subclusters within this area are also significant on their own strength: Philadelphia with suburbs (p = 0.0001), Long Island (p = 0.0001), central New Jersey (p = 0.0001), and northeastern New Jersey (p = 0.0001). The elevated breast cancer mortality on Long Island might be viewed less as a unique local phenomenon and more as part of a more general situation involving large parts of the New York City-Philadelphia metropolitan area. The several known and hypothesized risk factors for which we could not adjust and that may explain the detected cluster are most notably age at first birth, age at menarche, age at menopause, breastfeeding, genetic mutations, and environmental factors.

Integrated genomic profiling of endometrial carcinoma associates aggressive tumors with indicators of PI3 kinase activation.

Although 75% of endometrial cancers are treated at an early stage, 15% to 20% of these recur. We performed an integrated analysis of genome-wide expression and copy-number data for primary endometrial carcinomas with extensive clinical and histopathological data to detect features predictive of recurrent disease. Unsupervised analysis of the expression data distinguished 2 major clusters with strikingly different phenotypes, including significant differences in disease-free survival. To identify possible mechanisms for these differences, we performed a global genomic survey of amplifications, deletions, and loss of heterozygosity, which identified 11 significantly amplified and 13 significantly deleted regions. Amplifications of 3q26.32 harboring the oncogene PIK3CA were associated with poor prognosis and segregated with the aggressive transcriptional cluster. Moreover, samples with PIK3CA amplification carried signatures associated with in vitro activation of PI3 kinase (PI3K), a signature that was shared by aggressive tumors without PIK3CA amplification. Tumors with loss of PTEN expression or PIK3CA overexpression that did not have PIK3CA amplification also shared the PI3K activation signature, high protein expression of the PI3K pathway member STMN1, and an aggressive phenotype in test and validation datasets. However, mutations of PTEN or PIK3CA were not associated with the same expression profile or aggressive phenotype. STMN1 expression had independent prognostic value. The results affirm the utility of systematic characterization of the cancer genome in clinically annotated specimens and suggest the particular importance of the PI3K pathway in patients who have aggressive endometrial cancer.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding complications during anticoagulant treatment in patients with cancer and venous thrombosis.

A small proportion of patients with deep vein thrombosis develop recurrent venous thromboembolic complications or bleeding during anticoagulant treatment. These complications may occur more frequently if these patients have concomitant cancer. This prospective follow-up study sought to determine whether in thrombosis patients those with cancer have a higher risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism or bleeding during anticoagulant treatment than those without cancer. Of the 842 included patients, 181 had known cancer at entry. The 12-month cumulative incidence of recurrent thromboembolism in cancer patients was 20.7% (95% CI, 15.6%-25.8%) versus 6.8% (95% CI, 3.9%- 9.7%) in patients without cancer, for a hazard ratio of 3.2 (95% CI, 1.9-5.4) The 12-month cumulative incidence of major bleeding was 12.4% (95% CI, 6.5%-18.2%) in patients with cancer and 4.9% (95% CI, 2.5%-7.4%) in patients without cancer, for a hazard ratio of 2.2 (95% CI, 1.2-4.1). Recurrence and bleeding were both related to cancer severity and occurred predominantly during the first month of anticoagulant therapy but could not be explained by sub- or overanticoagulation. Cancer patients with venous thrombosis are more likely to develop recurrent thromboembolic complications and major bleeding during anticoagulant treatment than those without malignancy. These risks correlate with the extent of cancer. Possibilities for improvement using the current paradigms of anticoagulation seem limited and new treatment strategies should be developed.

Concurrent endometrial carcinoma in women with a biopsy diagnosis of atypical endometrial hyperplasia: a Gynecologic Oncology Group study.

BACKGROUND Adenocarcinoma of the endometrium is the most common gynecologic malignancy in the United States, accounting for approximately 36,000 diagnoses of invasive carcinoma annually. The most common histologic type, endometrioid adenocarcinoma (EC), accounts for 75-80% of patients. The objective of this work was to estimate the prevalence of concurrent carcinoma in women with a biopsy diagnosis of the precursor lesion, atypical endometrial hyperplasia (AEH). METHODS This prospective cohort study included women who had a community diagnosis of AEH. Diagnostic biopsy specimens were reviewed independently by three gynecologic pathologists who used International Society of Gynecologic Pathologists/World Health Organization criteria. Study participants underwent hysterectomy within 12 weeks of entry onto protocol without interval treatment. The hysterectomy slides also were reviewed by the study pathologists, and their findings were used in the subsequent analyses. RESULTS Between November 1998 and June 2003, 306 women were enrolled on the study. Of these, 17 women were not included in the analysis: Two patients had unreadable slides because of poor processing or insufficient tissue, 2 patients had only slides that were not endometrial, the slides for 5 patients were not available for review, and 8 of the hysterectomy specimens were excluded because they showed evidence of interval intervention, either progestin effect or ablation. In total, 289 patients were included in the current analysis. The study panel review of the AEH biopsy specimens was interpreted as follows: 74 of 289 specimens (25.6%) were diagnosed as less than AEH, 115 of 289 specimens (39.8%) were diagnosed as AEH, and 84 of 289 specimens (29.1%) were diagnosed as endometrial carcinoma. In 5.5% (16 of 289 specimens), there was no consensus on the biopsy diagnosis. The rate of concurrent endometrial carcinoma for analyzed specimens was 42.6% (123 of 289 specimens). Of these, 30.9% (38 of 123 specimens) were myoinvasive, and 10.6% (13 of 123 specimens) involved the outer 50% of the myometrium. Among the women who had hysterectomy specimens with carcinoma, 14 of 74 women (18.9%) had a study panel biopsy consensus diagnosis of less than AEH, 45 of 115 women (39.1%) had a study panel biopsy consensus diagnosis of AEH, and 54 of 84 women (64.3%) had a study panel diagnosis of carcinoma. Among women who had no consensus in their biopsy diagnosis, 10 of 16 women (62.5%) had carcinoma in their hysterectomy specimens. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of endometrial carcinoma in patients who had a community hospital biopsy diagnosis of AEH was high (42.6%). When considering management strategies for women who have a biopsy diagnosis of AEH, clinicians and patients should take into account the considerable rate of concurrent carcinoma.

Improved prognosis of thoracic aortic aneurysms: a population-based study.

CONTEXT Managing thoracic aortic aneurysms identified incidentally by increased use of computed tomography, echocardiography, and magnetic resonance imaging is problematic, especially in the elderly. OBJECTIVE To ascertain whether the previously reported poor prognosis for individuals with thoracic aortic aneurysms has changed with better medical therapies and improved surgical techniques that can now be applied to aneurysm management. DESIGN Population-based cohort study. SETTING AND PATIENTS All 133 patients with the diagnosis of degenerative thoracic aortic aneurysms among Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents between 1980 and 1994 compared with a previously reported cohort of similar patients between 1951 and 1980. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary clinical end points were incidence, cumulative rupture risk, rupture risk as a function of aneurysm size, and survival. RESULTS In contrast to abdominal aortic aneurysms, for which men are affected predominately, 51% of thoracic aortic aneurysms were identified in women who were considerably older at recognition than men (mean age, 75.9 vs 62.8 years, respectively; P= .01). The overall incidence rate of 10.4 per 100000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.6-12.2) between 1980 and 1994 was more than 3-fold higher than the rate from 1951 to 1980. The cumulative risk of rupture was 20% after 5 years. Seventy-nine percent of ruptures occurred in women (P= .01). The 5-year risk of rupture as a function of aneurysm size at recognition was 0% for aneurysms less than 4 cm in diameter, 16% (95% CI, 4%-28%) for those 4 to 5.9 cm, and 31% (95% CI, 5%-56%) for aneurysms 6 cm or more. Overall 5-year survival improved to 56% (95% CI, 48%-66%) between 1980 and 1994 compared with only 19% between 1951 and 1980 (P<.01). CONCLUSIONS In this population, elderly women represent an increasing portion of all patients with clinically recognized thoracic aortic aneurysms and constitute the majority of patients whose aneurysm eventually ruptures. Overall survival for thoracic aortic aneurysms has improved significantly in the past 15 years.

Association of hypomethylation of LINE-1 repetitive element in blood leukocyte DNA with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma

Global DNA hypomethylation has been associated with increased risk for cancers of the colorectum, bladder, breast, head and neck, and testicular germ cells. The aim of this study was to examine whether global hypomethylation in blood leukocyte DNA is associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 315 HCC cases and 356 age-, sex- and HBsAg status-matched controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing long interspersed element-1 (LINE-1) repeats using bisulfite-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and pyrosequencing. We observed that the median methylation level in HCC cases (percentage of 5-methylcytosine (5mC)=77.7%) was significantly lower than that in controls (79.5% 5mC) (P=0.004, Wilcoxon rank-sum test). The odds ratios (ORs) of HCC for individuals in the third, second, and first (lowest) quartiles of LINE-1 methylation were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI 0.8–2.2), and 2.6 (95% CI 1.7–4.1) (P for trend <0.001), respectively, compared to individuals in the fourth (highest) quartile. A 1.9-fold (95% CI 1.4–2.6) increased risk of HCC was observed among individuals with LINE-1 methylation below the median compared to individuals with higher (>median) LINE-1 methylation. Our results demonstrate for the first time that individuals with global hypomethylation measured in LINE-1 repeats in blood leukocyte DNA have an increased risk for HCC. Our data provide the evidence that global hypomethylation detected in the easily obtainable DNA source of blood leukocytes may help identify individuals at risk of HCC.

Association between smoking and risk of bladder cancer among men and women.

CONTEXT Previous studies indicate that the population attributable risk (PAR) of bladder cancer for tobacco smoking is 50% to 65% in men and 20% to 30% in women and that current cigarette smoking triples bladder cancer risk relative to never smoking. During the last 30 years, incidence rates have remained stable in the United States in men (123.8 per 100,000 person-years to 142.2 per 100,000 person-years) and women (32.5 per 100,000 person-years to 33.2 per 100,000 person-years); however, changing smoking prevalence and cigarette composition warrant revisiting risk estimates for smoking and bladder cancer. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and bladder cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Men (n = 281,394) and women (n = 186,134) of the National Institutes of Health-AARP (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study cohort completed a lifestyle questionnaire and were followed up between October 25, 1995, and December 31, 2006. Previous prospective cohort studies of smoking and incident bladder cancer were identified by systematic review and relative risks were estimated from fixed-effects models with heterogeneity assessed by the I(2) statistic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs), PARs, and number needed to harm (NNH). RESULTS During 4,518,941 person-years of follow-up, incident bladder cancer occurred in 3896 men (144.0 per 100,000 person-years) and 627 women (34.5 per 100,000 person-years). Former smokers (119.8 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 2.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.03-2.44; NNH, 1250) and current smokers (177.3 per 100,000 person-years; HR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.66-4.50; NNH, 727) had higher risks of bladder cancer than never smokers (39.8 per 100,000 person-years). In contrast, the summary risk estimate for current smoking in 7 previous studies (initiated between 1963 and 1987) was 2.94 (95% CI, 2.45-3.54; I(2) = 0.0%). The PAR for ever smoking in our study was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.45-0.54) in men and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45-0.59) in women. CONCLUSION Compared with a pooled estimate of US data from cohorts initiated between 1963 and 1987, relative risks for smoking in the more recent NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort were higher, with PARs for women comparable with those for men.

Prognostic impact of minimal pleural effusion in non-small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE Minimal (< 10 mm thick) pleural effusion (PE) may represent an early phase of malignant PE, but its clinical relevance has rarely been studied. Therefore, we examined the proportion of minimal PE in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and its impact on survival. We also considered possible accumulation mechanisms in our data set. PATIENTS AND METHODS On the basis of PE status from chest computed tomography scans at diagnosis, 2,061 patients were classified into three groups: no PE, minimal PE, and malignant PE. Twenty-one variables associated with four factors-patient, stage migration, tumor, and treatment-were investigated for correlation with survival. RESULTS Minimal PE presented in 272 patients (13.2%). Of 2,061 patients, the proportion of each stage was the following: 5.2% stage I, 10.9% stage II, 13.2% stage IIIA, 23.8% stage IIIB, and 13.9% stage IV. Minimal PE correlated significantly with shorter survival time than did no PE (median survival time, 7.7 v 17.7 months; log-rank P < .001), even after full adjustment with all variables (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.62). Prognostic impact of minimal PE was higher in early versus advanced stages (Pinteraction = .001). In 237 patients (87.8%) with minimal PE, pleural invasion or attachment as a direct mechanism was observed, and it was an independent factor predicting worse survival (P = .03). CONCLUSION Minimal PE is a commonly encountered clinical concern in staging NSCLCs. Its presence is an important prognostic factor of worse survival, especially in early-stage disease.

Oncologists' perceptions of the effects of cancer patients' companions on physician-patient interactions

To determine physicians' perceptions of the effects that the companions of cancer patients have on physician-patient communication, semistructured interviews were conducted with 12 oncologists (6 medical, 4 surgical, and 2 radiation) from a total population of 21 oncologists. The physicians estimated that threefourths of their patients brought companions with them to consultations and said that these consultations were more complex for the physician. The behaviors of the companions varied from domination to passive note taking, and the companions who were young professional men or older women who accompanied their husbands were the most assertive and asked the most questions. All possible coalitions were observed during medical visits. The physicians perceived that companions and patients often had different agendas and noted differences in the companions' behaviors according to their gender and whether they lived in rural or urban areas.

Increased density of tumor-associated macrophages is associated with decreased survival in advanced thyroid cancer.

Thyroid cancers are infiltrated with tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs), yet their role in cancer progression is not known. The objectives of this study were to characterize the density of TAMs in well-differentiated (WDTC), poorly differentiated (PDTC), and anaplastic thyroid cancers (ATC) and to correlate TAM density with clinicopathologic parameters. Immunohistochemistry was performed on tissue microarray sections from WDTC (n=33), PDTC (n=37), and ATC (n=20) using macrophage-specific markers. Electronic medical records were used to gather clinical and pathologic data. Follow-up information of PDTC patients was available for 0-12 years. In total, 9 out of 33 WDTC (27%), 20 out of 37 PDTC (54%), and 19 out of 20 ATC (95%) had an increased density of CD68(+) TAMs (> or = 10 per 0.28 mm(2); WDTC versus PDTC, P=0.03; WDTC versus ATC, P<0.0001; PDTC versus ATC, P<0.002). Increased TAMs in PDTC was associated with capsular invasion (P=0.034), extrathyroidal extension (P=0.009), and decreased cancer-related survival (P=0.009) compared with PDTC with a low density of TAMs. In conclusion, the density of TAMs is increased in advanced thyroid cancers. The presence of a high density of TAMs in PDTC correlates with invasion and decreased cancer-related survival. These results suggest that TAMs may facilitate tumor progression. As novel therapies directed against thyroid tumor cell-specific targets are being tested, the potential role of TAMs as potential modulators of the thyroid cancer behavior will need to be considered.

Relationship between reduced forced expiratory volume in one second and the risk of lung cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Individuals with severely impaired lung function have an increased risk of lung cancer. Whether milder reductions in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) also increase the risk of lung cancer is controversial. Moreover, there is little consensus on whether men and women have similar risks for lung cancer for similar decreases in FEV(1). METHODS A search was conducted of PubMed and EMBASE from January 1966 to January 2005 and studies that examined the relationship between FEV1 and lung cancer were identified. The search was limited to studies that were population based, employed a prospective design, were large in size (> or = 5000 participants), and adjusted for cigarette smoking status. RESULTS Twenty eight abstracts were identified, six of which did not report FEV1 and eight did not adjust for smoking. Included in this report are four studies that reported FEV1 in quintiles. The risk of lung cancer increased with decreasing FEV1. Compared with the highest quintile of FEV1 (> 100% of predicted), the lowest quintile of FEV1 (< approximately 70% of predicted) was associated with a 2.23 fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.73 to 2.86) increase in the risk for lung cancer in men and a 3.97 fold increase in women (95% CI 1.93 to 8.25). Even relatively small decrements in FEV1 ( approximately 90% of predicted) increased the risk for lung cancer by 30% in men (95% CI 1.05 to 1.62) and 2.64 fold in women (95% CI 1.30 to 5.31). CONCLUSION Reduced FEV1 is strongly associated with lung cancer. Even a relatively modest reduction in FEV1 is a significant predictor of lung cancer, especially among women.

Reduced expression of oestrogen receptor beta in invasive breast cancer and its re-expression using DNA methyl transferase inhibitors in a cell line model.

To gain insights into the possible role of oestrogen receptor (ER) beta in breast carcinogenesis, immunohistochemical analysis of ER beta was performed on 512 breast specimens encompassing normal (n = 138), pure ductal carcinoma in situ (n = 16), invasive cancers (n = 319), lymph node metastases (n = 31), and recurrences (n = 8). Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to investigate the methylation status of the ER beta gene in the ER beta negative breast cancer cell lines SkBr3 and MDA-MB-435. A gradual reduction in, but not a complete loss of, ER beta expression was observed during the transition from normal and pre-invasive lesions to invasive cancers, where ER beta was lost in 21% of cases. This was more pronounced in invasive ductal than in lobular carcinomas, a significantly higher proportion of which were ER beta-positive (74% compared with 91%, respectively, p = 0.0004). Examination of paired primary cancers with their axillary lymph node metastases showed that if ER beta was present in the primary tumour, it persisted in the metastasis. Treatment of ER beta-negative cell lines with DNA methyl transferase inhibitors restored ER beta expression, providing experimental evidence that silencing of ER beta in breast carcinomas could be due to promoter hypermethylation. These results suggest that loss of ER beta expression is one of the hallmarks of breast carcinogenesis and that it may be a reversible process involving methylation.

Investigating survival prognosis of glioblastoma using evolutional properties of gene networks

In recent years, there has been widespread interest and a large number of publications on the application of graph theory techniques into constructing and analyzing biologically-informed gene networks from cancer cell line data sets. Current research efforts have predominantly looked at an overall static, topological, representation of the network, and have not investigated the application of graph theoretical techniques to evolutionary investigations of cancer. A number of these studies have used graph theory metrics, such as degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality, to identify important hub genes in these networks. However, these have not fully investigated the importance of genes across the different stages of the disease. Previous human glioblastoma publications have identified four subtypes of glioblastoma in adults, based on signature genes. In one such publication, Verhaak et al. found that the subtypes correspond to a narrow median survival range, from 11.3 months for the most aggressive subtype, to 13.1 months for the least aggressive one. In this work, we present an evolutionary graph theory study of glioblastoma based on survival data categorization, confirming genes associated with different survival times identified using established graph theory metrics. The work is extending the application of graph theory approaches to evolutionary studies of cancer cell line data.

Changes in the prevalence of cerebral palsy for children born very prematurely within a population-based program over 30 years.

CONTEXT Although cerebral palsy (CP) among extremely premature infants has been reported as a major morbidity outcome, there are difficulties comparing published CP rates from many sites over various birth years. OBJECTIVE To assess the changes in population-based, gestational age-specific prevalence rates of CP among extremely premature infants over 30 years. DESIGN Prospective population-based longitudinal outcome study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS In Northern Alberta, 2318 infants 20 to 27 weeks' gestational age with birth weights of 500 to 1249 g were liveborn from 1974 through 2003. By 2 years of age, 1437 (62%) had died, 23 (1%) were lost to follow-up, and 858 (37%) had received multidisciplinary neurodevelopmental assessment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Population-based prevalence rates of CP were determined. Logistic regression with linear spline was used to assess changes in CP prevalence over time. RESULTS At age 2 years, 122 (14.2%) of 858 survivors had CP. This diagnosis was confirmed for each child by age 3 years or older. Among those whose gestational age was 20 to 25 weeks, population-based survival increased from 4% to 31% (P<.001), while CP prevalence per 1000 live births increased monotonically from 0 to 110 until the years 1992-1994 (P<.001) and decreased thereafter to 22 in the years 2001-2003 (P<.001). Among those whose gestational age was 26 to 27 weeks, population-based survival increased from 23% to between 75% and 80% (P<.001), while CP prevalence per 1000 live births increased monotonically from 15 to 155 until the years 1992-1994 (P<.001) and then decreased to 16 in the years 2001-2003 (P<.001). For all survivors born in the years 2001-2003, CP prevalence was 19 per 1000 live births. CONCLUSION Population-based CP prevalence rates for children whose gestational age was 20 to 27 weeks and whose birth weight ranged from 500 to 1249 g show steady reductions in the last decade with stable or reducing mortality, reversing trends prior to 1992-1994.

Aberrant expression and altered cellular localization of desmosomal and hemidesmosomal proteins are associated with aggressive clinicopathological features of oral squamous cell carcinoma

Disruption of cell adhesion plays a central role in dedifferentiation, invasion, and metastasis of various cancers. The desmosome and hemidesmosome are anchoring junctions that control cell-cell and cell-matrix adhesion, respectively. To clarify their contributions in mediating the biological properties of oral cancer, we immunohistochemically examined the expression of desmoglein 1 (DSG1), DSG2, DSG3, desmocollin 2 (DSC2), integrin beta 4 (ITGB4), laminin gamma chain 2 (LAMC2), and collagen type 17 alpha 1 (COL17A1) in 51 cases of oral squamous cell carcinoma. On normal oral epithelial cells, DSG1, DSG3, DSC2, and COL17A1 were expressed on the plasma membrane, while ITGB4 and mature LAMC2 were present at the basement membrane. In cancer, the expression of DSG1, DSG3, DSC2, and COL17A1 decreased and internalized to the cytoplasm. Cytoplasmic expression of DSG2, ITGB4, and LAMC2 was induced in the cancer cells facing to the stroma. We scored immunohistochemical expression and correlated this to clinicopathological parameters including histologic differentiation, pattern of invasion, and presence of lymph node metastasis. Decrease of DSG3 and DSC2 expression correlated with a more aggressive cancer phenotype: less differentiated and more invasive histologic features and a higher incidence of nodal metastasis. Lower COL17A1 and higher LAMC2 expression were also associated with a more aggressive phenotype. The present study demonstrates that aberrant expression and altered cellular localization of desmosomal and hemidesmosomal proteins are associated with aggressive clinicopathological features of oral cancer. This reinforces the notion that disturbance of the keratin-associated anchoring junctions confers aggressive features to cancer cells.

Cancer after pre-eclampsia: follow up of the Jerusalem perinatal study cohort.

OBJECTIVE To compare the incidence of cancer among women with and without a history of pre-eclampsia. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Jerusalem perinatal study of women who delivered in three large hospitals in West Jerusalem during 1964-76. PARTICIPANTS 37 033 women. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age adjusted and multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for cancer incidence for the entire cohort and for women who were primiparous at study entry. RESULTS Cancer developed in 91 women who had pre-eclampsia and 2204 who did not (hazard ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.57). The risk of site specific cancers was increased, particularly of the stomach, ovary epithelium, breast, and lung or larynx. The incidence of cancer of the stomach, breast, ovary, kidney, and lung or larynx was increased in primiparous women at study entry who had a history pre-eclampsia. CONCLUSIONS A history of pre-eclampsia is associated with increases in overall risk of cancer and incidence at several sites. This may be explained by environmental and genetic factors common to the development of pre-eclampsia and cancer in this population.

Effects of risedronate treatment on vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis: a randomized controlled trial. Vertebral Efficacy With Risedronate Therapy (VERT) Study Group.

CONTEXT Risedronate, a potent bisphosphonate, has been shown to be effective in the treatment of Paget disease of bone and other metabolic bone diseases but, to our knowledge, it has not been evaluated in the treatment of established postmenopausal osteoporosis. OBJECTIVE To test the efficacy and safety of daily treatment with risedronate to reduce the risk of vertebral and other fractures in postmenopausal women with established osteoporosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 2458 ambulatory postmenopausal women younger than 85 years with at least 1 vertebral fracture at baseline who were enrolled at 1 of 110 centers in North America conducted between December 1993 and January 1998. INTERVENTIONS Subjects were randomly assigned to receive oral treatment for 3 years with risedronate (2.5 or 5 mg/d) or placebo. All subjects received calcium, 1000 mg/d. Vitamin D (cholecalciferol, up to 500 IU/d) was provided if baseline levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were low. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of new vertebral fractures as detected by quantitative and semiquantitative assessments of radiographs; incidence of radiographically confirmed nonvertebral fractures and change from baseline in bone mineral density as determined by dual x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS The 2.5 mg/d of risedronate arm was discontinued after 1 year; in the placebo and 5 mg/d of risedronate arms, 450 and 489 subjects, respectively, completed all 3 years of the trial. Treatment with 5 mg/d of risedronate, compared with placebo, decreased the cumulative incidence of new vertebral fractures by 41 % (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%-58%) over 3 years (11.3 % vs 16.3%; P= .003). A fracture reduction of 65% (95% CI, 38%-81 %) was observed after the first year (2.4% vs 6.4%; P<.001). The cumulative incidence of nonvertebral fractures over 3 years was reduced by 39% (95% CI, 6%-61 %) (5.2 % vs 8.4%; P = .02). Bone mineral density increased significantly compared with placebo at the lumbar spine (5.4% vs 1.1 %), femoral neck (1.6% vs -1.2%), femoral trochanter (3.3% vs -0.7%), and midshaft of the radius (0.2% vs -1.4%). Bone formed during risedronate treatment was histologically normal. The overall safety profile of risedronate, including gastrointestinal safety, was similar to that of placebo. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that risedronate therapy is effective and well tolerated in the treatment of women with established postmenopausal osteoporosis.

Basal keratinocyte tetrasomy in low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions of the cervix is restricted to high and intermediate risk HPV infection but is not type-specific

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection appears to be an early event in cervical carcinogenesis with additional abnormalities being required for biological transformation. We have analysed 179 low-grade cervical squamous intra-epithelial lesions (SILs) and 15 normal cervices for the presence of HPV using both in situ hybridization and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). PCR was performed with GP5+/GP6+ primers followed by hybridization using probes for low (HPV 6, 11, 40, 42, 43, 44), intermediate (HPV 31, 33, 35, 39, 51, 52, 58, 59, 66 and 68) and high-risk HPVs (HPV 16, 18, 45 and 56). Interphase cytogenetic analysis using pericentromeric probes for chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11, 17, 18 and X was also performed to identify numerical chromosomal abnormalities. Tetrasomy of all nine chromosomes was identified within basal keratinocytes, was restricted to epithelia infected with high risk (17 of 46) or intermediate risk (23 of 83) HPVs but was not HPV type-specific. Tetrasomy was not identified in any of the epithelia infected with low risk HPVs (n = 62). These numbers include multiple infection. These findings indicate that the induction of tetrasomy is a property restricted to high and intermediate-risk HPV types but that it is not type-specific. The factors governing which lesions will develop this abnormality are as yet unclear. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign

Aspirin in the chemoprevention of colorectal neoplasia: an overview.

Considerable evidence supports the effectiveness of aspirin for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer (CRC) in addition to its well-established benefits in the prevention of vascular disease. Epidemiologic studies have consistently observed an inverse association between aspirin use and risk of CRC. A recent pooled analysis of a long-term posttrial follow-up of nearly 14,000 patients from four randomized, cardiovascular disease prevention trials showed that daily aspirin treatment for about five years was associated with a 34% reduction in 20-year CRC mortality. A separate metaanalysis of nearly 3,000 patients with a history of colorectal adenoma or cancer in four randomized adenoma prevention trials showed that aspirin reduced the occurrence of advanced adenomas by 28% and any adenoma by 17%. Aspirin has also been shown to be beneficial in a clinical trial of patients with Lynch syndrome, a hereditary CRC syndrome; in those treated with aspirin for at least two years, there was a 50% or more reduction in the risk of CRC commencing five years after randomization and after aspirin had been discontinued. A few observational studies have shown an increase in survival among patients with CRC who use aspirin. Taken together, these findings strengthen the case for consideration of long-term aspirin use in CRC prevention. Despite these compelling data, there is a lack of consensus about the balance of risks and benefits associated with long-term aspirin use, particularly in low-risk populations. The optimal dose to use for cancer prevention and the precise mechanism underlying aspirin's anticancer effect require further investigation.

Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

A new era in ovulation induction.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy of aromatase inhibitors in ovulation induction, superovulation, and IVF. DESIGN A literature search was conducted with the key words "aromatase inhibitor," "letrozole," "anastrazole," "ovulation induction," "ovulation," and "superovulation" in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database of systematic reviews. RESULT(S) Ovulation induction with letrozole is associated with an ovulation rate of 70%-84% and a pregnancy rate of 20%-27% per cycle. In one study, ovulation and pregnancy rates with letrozole seemed to be higher than those of anastrazole. In superovulation, letrozole is associated with few developing follicles and thick endometrium. The use of letrozole for superovulation is associated with a pregnancy rate higher than with the use of clomiphene citrate (CC) (16.7% vs. 5.6%). The addition of letrozole to FSH treatment leads to a decreased FSH requirement. The pregnancy rate for treatment with letrozole and FSH was similar to that for FSH alone. CONCLUSION(S) Aromatase inhibitors are as effective as or superior to CC in ovulation induction and in superovulation. Unlike CC, they do not carry an antiestrogenic effect on the endometrium. Given the advantages of aromatase inhibitors, they can be used to replace CC as ovulation-inducing drugs. Their role in IVF remains to be determined.

Expression of basal cell keratin 15 and keratin 19 in oral squamous neoplasms represents diverse pathophysiologies.

Human epithelium contains keratin, which is expressed during differentiation. Depending on the target cell type, different types of keratin are expressed, and their alterations seem to represent changes in cell properties. The basal cells of oral epithelium express keratin 5 (K5), K14, K15 and K19, but their alterations in tumors are unclear. To address this issue and to seek possible diagnostic application, we examined the expression of these keratins in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and squamous intraepithelial neoplasm (SIN). cDNA microarray analysis of 43 OSCC revealed slight upregulation of KRT14, downregulation of KRT15 and KRT19, and unaltered KRT5 expression. There were great variations in KRT15 and KRT19 expression across each cancer. Well-differentiated OSCC tended to express more KRT15 and less KRT19 compared to moderately- or poorly-differentiated OSCC. KRT15 was positively correlated with differentiation-related keratin, KRT13. These observations were further investigated by immunohistochemical examination. K5 and K14 were ubiquitously expressed in all 50 OSCC and 50 SIN examined. K15 and K19 were generally downregulated, but were considerably retained in about half of the cases and showed diverse expression patterns. K15-positive cancers tended to show a well-differentiated phenotype, and K19-positive cancers tended to show more invasive tumor fronts. Most K19-positive cancers appeared to develop with little associating SIN. K19 was consistently downregulated in SIN, while K15 was downregulated mainly in high grade SIN. In summary, K15 and K19, unlike K5 or K14, are expressed variably in both SIN and OSCC, which reflects the differences in their pathogenesis and biological behaviors, suggesting their prospective applications as markers for subclassifying OSCC and SIN.

Linkage Disequilibrium Mapping of       CHEK2: Common Variation and Breast Cancer Risk

Background Checkpoint kinase 2 (CHEK2) averts cancer development by promoting cell cycle arrest and activating DNA repair in genetically damaged cells. Previous investigation has established a role for the CHEK2 gene in breast cancer aetiology, but studies have largely been limited to the rare 1100delC mutation. Whether common polymorphisms in this gene influence breast cancer risk remains unknown. In this study, we aimed to assess the importance of common CHEK2 variants on population risk for breast cancer by capturing the majority of diversity in the gene using haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs). Methods and Findings We analyzed 14 common SNPs spanning 52 kilobases (kb) of the CHEK2 gene in 92 Swedish women. Coverage evaluation indicated that these typed SNPs would efficiently convey association signal also from untyped SNPs in the same region. Six of the 14 SNPs predicted well both the haplotypic and single SNP variations within CHEK2. We genotyped these six tagSNPs in 1,577 postmenopausal breast cancer cases and 1,513 population controls, but found no convincing association between any common CHEK2 haplotype and breast cancer risk. The 1100delC mutation was rare in our Swedish population—0.7% in cases and 0.4% in controls— with a corresponding odds ratio for carriers versus noncarriers of 2.26 (95% confidence interval, 0.99–5.15). Estimates of the population frequency and the odds ratio of 1100delC indicate that our sample is representative of a Northern European population.

Familial recurrence-pattern analysis of nonsyndromic isolated cleft palate--a Danish Registry study.

The finding of an association between genetic variation at the transforming growth-factor alpha (TGFA) locus and nonsyndromic isolated cleft palate (CP) represents a potentially important breakthrough in our understanding of this condition. The present study was undertaken to assess the feasibility of detecting linkage to putative CP-susceptibility loci, such as TGFA. To this end, the familial recurrence pattern for CP was evaluated to determine the most likely mode of inheritance for this condition. The study took advantage of the high ascertainment and uniform registration of CP in Denmark. In addition, the study utilized estimates of familial recurrence that were obtained by register linkage and, hence, were not subject to either recall bias or the potentially biasing influence of nonresponders. The recurrence risks for first-, second-, and third-degree relatives of 1,364 nonsyndromic CP probands were estimated to be 2.74% (72/2,628), 0.28% (3/1,068), and 0.00% (0/360), respectively. These estimates are close to published estimates based on questionnaire and interview data. The population prevalence for nonsyndromic CP was, however, found to be considerable higher than usually reported (0.058% [1,456/2,523,023]). Analyses of these and previously published data, using the method presented by Risch, indicated that major-locus or additive multilocus inheritance of CP is unlikely. The familial recurrence pattern was, however, consistent with CP being determined by several interacting loci. Under such a model, a single locus accounting for more than a sixfold increase in the risk to first-degree relatives of CP probands is unlikely, whereas a single locus accounting for a threefold increase provided a good fit to the data. Such a locus could be detected in a realistic sample of affected sib pairs.

Physicians' initial management of acute low back pain versus evidence-based guidelines. Influence of sciatica.

BACKGROUND Little information is available on physician characteristics and patient presentations that may influence compliance with evidence-based guidelines for acute low back pain. OBJECTIVE To assess whether physicians' management decisions are consistent with the Agency for Health Research Quality's guideline and whether responses varied with the presentation of sciatica or by physician characteristics. DESIGN Cross-sectional study using a mailed survey. PARTICIPANTS Participants were randomly selected from internal medicine, family practice, general practice, emergency medicine, and occupational medicine specialties. MEASUREMENTS A questionnaire asked for recommendations for 2 case scenarios, representing patients without and with sciatica, respectively. RESULTS Seven hundred and twenty surveys were completed (response rate=25%). In cases 1 (without sciatica) and 2 (with sciatica), 26.9% and 4.3% of physicians fully complied with the guideline, respectively. For each year in practice, the odds of guideline noncompliance increased 1.03 times (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.01 to 1.05) for case 1. With occupational medicine as the referent specialty, general practice had the greatest odds of noncompliance (3.60, 95% CI=1.75 to 7.40) in case 1, followed by internal medicine and emergency medicine. Results for case 2 reflected the influence of sciatica with internal medicine having substantially higher odds (vs case 1) and the greatest odds of noncompliance of any specialty (6.93, 95% CI=1.47 to 32.78), followed by family practice and emergency medicine. CONCLUSIONS A majority of primary care physicians continue to be noncompliant with evidence-based back pain guidelines. Sciatica dramatically influenced clinical decision-making, increasing the extent of noncompliance, particularly for internal medicine and family practice. Physicians' misunderstanding of sciatica's natural history and belief that more intensive initial management is indicated may be factors underlying the observed influence of sciatica.

Breast cancer risk factors in relation to breast density (United States)

Evaluate known breast cancer risk factors in relation to breast density. We examined factors in relation to breast density in 144,018 New Hampshire (NH) women with at least one mammogram recorded in a statewide mammography registry. Mammographic breast density was measured by radiologists using the BI-RADS classification; risk factors of interest were obtained from patient intake forms and questionnaires. Initial analyses showed a strong inverse influence of age and body mass index (BMI) on breast density. In addition, women with late age at menarche, late age at first birth, premenopausal women, and those currently using hormone therapy (HT) tended to have higher breast density, while those with greater parity tended to have less dense breasts. Analyses stratified on age and BMI suggested interactions, which were formally assessed in a multivariable model. The impact of current HT use, relative to nonuse, differed across age groups, with an inverse association in younger women, and a positive association in older women (p < 0.0001 for the interaction). The positive effects of age at menarche and age at first birth, and the inverse influence of parity were less apparent in women with low BMI than in those with high BMI (p = 0.04, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.01, respectively, for the interactions). We also noted stronger positive effects for age at first birth in postmenopausal women (p = 0.004 for the interaction). The multivariable model indicated a slight positive influence of family history of breast cancer. The influence of age at menarche and reproductive factors on breast density is less evident in women with high BMI. Density is reduced in young women using HT, but increased in HT users of age 50 or more.

Interaction between broad-spectrum antibiotics and the combined oral contraceptive pill. A literature review.

There is considerable variation in opinion about the importance of drug interactions between the combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) and broad-spectrum antibiotics. Clinical practice varies widely, especially between doctors in Europe and those in the US. Rifampicin and griseofulvin induce hepatic enzymes and do appear to have a genuine interaction with the COCP, leading to reduced efficacy. The situation with the broad-spectrum antibiotics is less clear. There are relatively few prospective studies of the pharmacokinetics of concurrent COCP and antibiotic use and few, if any, demonstrate a convincing basis for any reduced contraceptive efficacy. There is evidence, however, that variable contraceptive steroid handling could make some women, at some times, more susceptible to COCP failure. Given the serious consequences of unwanted pregnancy, the cautious approach of using additional or alternative contraception during short courses of broad-spectrum antibiotics and the initial weeks of long-term antibiotic administration may be justified to safeguard the few unidentifiable women who may be at risk. Conflicting opinion and advice is potentially confusing to both professionals and patients, and instructions for additional precautions during and after concurrent COCP and antibiotic use are complicated. Many women are ignorant of, or confused about, the circumstances that can cause OC to fail. Health professionals who prescribe the COCP must continue to strive to educate women about the mode of action and about the times when there is the greatest danger of failure. Professionals who feel that concurrent antibiotic use represents a real threat to contraceptive efficacy of the COCP should be prepared to present the advice for additional contraceptive precautions in a simple and consistent way, backed up with written information and reinforced at regular intervals.

The Global Spread of Hepatitis C Virus 1a and 1b: A Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Analysis

BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV. METHODS AND FINDINGS We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries. CONCLUSIONS The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Sex differences in mortality following acute coronary syndromes.

CONTEXT Conflicting information exists about whether sex differences modulate short-term mortality following acute coronary syndromes (ACS). OBJECTIVES To investigate the relationship between sex and 30-day mortality in ACS, and to determine whether this relationship was modified by clinical syndrome or coronary anatomy using a large database across the spectrum of ACS and adjusting for potentially confounding clinical covariates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A convenience sample of patients pooled from 11 independent, international, randomized ACS clinical trials between 1993 and 2006 whose databases are maintained at the Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina. Of 136 247 patients, 38 048 (28%) were women; 102 004 (26% women) with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), 14 466 (29% women) with non-STEMI (NSTEMI), and 19 777 (40% women) with unstable angina. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Thirty-day mortality following ACS. RESULTS Thirty-day mortality was 9.6% in women and 5.3% in men (odds ratio [OR], 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83-2.00). After multivariable adjustment, mortality was not significantly different between women and men (adjusted OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.99-1.15). A significant sex by type of ACS interaction was demonstrated (P < .001). In STEMI, 30-day mortality was higher among women (adjusted OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24), whereas in NSTEMI (adjusted OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63-0.95) and unstable angina, mortality was lower among women (adjusted OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43-0.70). In a cohort of 35 128 patients with angiographic data, women more often had nonobstructive (15% vs 8%) and less often had 2-vessel (25% vs 28%) and 3-vessel (23% vs 26%) coronary disease, regardless of ACS type. After additional adjustment for angiographic disease severity, 30-day mortality among women was not significantly different than men, regardless of ACS type. The relationship between sex and 30-day mortality was similar across the levels of angiographic disease severity (P for interaction = .70). CONCLUSIONS Sex-based differences existed in 30-day mortality among patients with ACS and vary depending on clinical presentation. However, these differences appear to be largely explained by clinical differences at presentation and severity of angiographically documented disease.

Cerebral palsy among term and postterm births.

CONTEXT Although preterm delivery is a well-established risk factor for cerebral palsy (CP), preterm deliveries contribute only a minority of affected infants. There is little information on the relation of CP risk to gestational age in the term range, where most CP occurs. OBJECTIVE To determine whether timing of birth in the term and postterm period is associated with risk of CP. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Population-based follow-up study using the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to identify 1,682,441 singleton children born in the years 1967-2001 with a gestational age of 37 through 44 weeks and no congenital anomalies. The cohort was followed up through 2005 by linkage to other national registries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Absolute and relative risk of CP for children surviving to at least 4 years of age. RESULTS Of the cohort of term and postterm children, 1938 were registered with CP in the National Insurance Scheme. Infants born at 40 weeks had the lowest risk of CP, with a prevalence of 0.99/1000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.08). Risk for CP was higher with earlier or later delivery, with a prevalence at 37 weeks of 1.91/1000 (95% CI, 1.58-2.25) and a relative risk (RR) of 1.9 (95% CI, 1.6-2.4), a prevalence at 38 weeks of 1.25/1000 (95% CI, 1.07-1.42) and an RR of 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.6), a prevalence at 42 weeks of 1.36/1000 (95% CI, 1.19-1.53) and an RR of 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.6), and a prevalence after 42 weeks of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.15-1.72) and an RR of 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.8). These associations were even stronger in a subset with gestational age based on ultrasound measurements: at 37 weeks the prevalence was 1.17/1000 (95% CI, 0.30-2.04) and the relative risk was 3.7 (95% CI, 1.5-9.1). At 42 weeks the prevalence was 0.85/1000 (95% CI, 0.33-1.38) and the relative risk was 2.4 (95% CI, 1.1-5.3). Adjustment for infant sex, maternal age, and various socioeconomic measures had little effect. CONCLUSION Compared with delivery at 40 weeks' gestation, delivery at 37 or 38 weeks or at 42 weeks or later was associated with an increased risk of CP.