Epidemiological disease burden from noncommunicable diseases is more prevalent in low economic settings.

Adapting the WHO package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions, Samoa

Problem Samoa has been struggling to address the burden of noncommunicable diseases at the health system, community and individual levels. Approach The World Health Organization (WHO) package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary health care in low-resource settings was adopted in seven villages throughout Samoa in 2015. The National Steering Committee Members designed and implemented a screening process, and local facilitators and health-care workers collected health and lifestyle data. The WHO/International Society of Hypertension risk assessment was used on villagers older than 40 years to identify people at high risk of noncommunicable disease. Local setting Samoa is a small island developing state with increasing morbidity and mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. A national representative survey indicated that 50.1% (595/1188) of the Samoan adult population is at high risk of such diseases. High numbers of noncommunicable diseases are undiagnosed or untreated, because of shortage of health-care staff and lack of awareness of risk factors. Relevant changes The teams collected data from 2234 adults. For people older than 40 years, 6.7% (54/804) were identified as being at high-risk and were encouraged to seek treatment or manage risk factors. Community members developed an awareness programme to improve understanding of lifestyle risk factors. Lessons learnt Engaging community members was crucial in conducting a successful screening campaign. By identifying those villagers at high risk of developing noncommunicable diseases, early intervention was possible. Education improved awareness of the symptom-free nature of early-stage noncommunicable diseases.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown. METHODS We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years. RESULTS The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

The fallacy of the ecological fallacy: the potential misuse of a concept and the consequences.

Ecological studies have been evaluated in epidemiological contexts in terms of the "ecological fallacy. " Although the empirical evidence for a lack of comparability between correlations derived from ecological- and individual-level analyses is compelling, the conceptual meaning of the ecological fallacy remains problematic. This paper argues that issues in cross-level inference can be usefully conceptualized as validity problems, problems not peculiar to ecological-level analyses. Such an approach increases the recognition of both potential inference problems in individual-level studies and the unique contributions of ecological variables. This, in turn, expands the terrain for the location of causes for disease and interventions to improve the public's health.

The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. METHODS We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries. FINDINGS We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013. INTERPRETATION Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital

In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.

Thresholds for the cost–effectiveness of interventions: alternative approaches

Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.

Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus

BACKGROUND Prior to emergence in human populations, zoonoses such as SARS cause occasional infections in human populations exposed to reservoir species. The risk of widespread epidemics in humans can be assessed by monitoring the reproduction number R (average number of persons infected by a human case). However, until now, estimating R required detailed outbreak investigations of human clusters, for which resources and expertise are not always available. Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations. METHODS AND FINDINGS Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived. CONCLUSIONS We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

“Rapid-Impact Interventions”: How a Policy of Integrated Control for Africa's Neglected Tropical Diseases Could Benefit the Poor

Over the past two decades there have been significant achievements in the control of a handful of important human tropical infections [1]. These achievements include the substantive reductions in the prevalence and incidence of the so-called neglected diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, guinea worm, leprosy, and trachoma (Box 1) [2]. Each of these neglected diseases is a poverty-promoting and often stigmatizing condition occurring primarily in rural areas of low-income countries (Box 2) [3]. They are ancient afflictions, described in the Bible and other ancient texts, which have burdened humanity for millennia [3]. But now, as a result of aggressive regional vertical interventions, there is a possibility that some neglected tropical infections could be eventually controlled to the point of elimination in some areas of endemicity [2–8]. In the case of guinea worm infection, disease eradication might also soon be possible [9]. Box 2. Common Features of the Neglected Tropical Diseases          Ancient afflictions that have burdened humanity for centuries      Poverty-promoting conditions      Associated with stigma      Rural areas of low-income countries and fragile states      No commercial markets for products that target these diseases      Interventions, when applied, have a history of success

The last and the next hundred years of malariology.

The founding fathers of malariology combined scientific originality, perseverance in research, strong characters, breadth of interest and social concern. A hundred years later research and understanding has made immense progress but the world still bears a huge burden of malaria. For the next century research requires both more specialism and a holistic range if it is to be used in control, requiring multidisciplinary team work. Environmental changes and interventions produce a dynamic and changing pattern of malaria, not the static one of the past. From the original parasite life cycle, research has analysed a series of other cycles at electron microscope, biochemical and genome levels on decreasing size scales and quantitative epidemiological cycles for control. Recent additions to these concepts have been stage-specific antigens, cycles of disease rather than parasites alone, considering populations of parasites rather than just cases, and also genetic variation in each component of the parasite-human host-vector triad. In this volume there emerges for the first time a coherent overall picture of the biomedical aspects of basic malariology as the interacting population genetics of malaria parasites, anophelines and people. This provides a coherent model for the new century dealing with the great biological malaria problems of drug resistance, vaccine development, insecticidal and net control and can feed, with socio-economic work, into the gathering renewal of control efforts. New work on large-scale changes of malaria in space and time enables us to be precise about effects of local and global environmental changes to predict epidemics. Future research will be as much about linking these different scales of understanding as control will be about linking different levels of the health system. The grim situation in poor holoendemic countries also requires practical support of the type that the founders of malariology were involved in. A coherent understanding needs to feed into the new control efforts, from Roll Back Malaria onwards, for the next century.

Dietary quality among men and women in 187 countries in 1990 and 2010: a systematic assessment

BACKGROUND Healthy dietary patterns are a global priority to reduce non-communicable diseases. Yet neither worldwide patterns of diets nor their trends with time are well established. We aimed to characterise global changes (or trends) in dietary patterns nationally and regionally and to assess heterogeneity by age, sex, national income, and type of dietary pattern. METHODS In this systematic assessment, we evaluated global consumption of key dietary items (foods and nutrients) by region, nation, age, and sex in 1990 and 2010. Consumption data were evaluated from 325 surveys (71·7% nationally representative) covering 88·7% of the global adult population. Two types of dietary pattern were assessed: one reflecting greater consumption of ten healthy dietary items and the other based on lesser consumption of seven unhealthy dietary items. The mean intakes of each dietary factor were divided into quintiles, and each quintile was assigned an ordinal score, with higher scores being equivalent to healthier diets (range 0-100). The dietary patterns were assessed by hierarchical linear regression including country, age, sex, national income, and time as exploratory variables. FINDINGS From 1990 to 2010, diets based on healthy items improved globally (by 2·2 points, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0·9 to 3·5), whereas diets based on unhealthy items worsened (-2·5, -3·3 to -1·7). In 2010, the global mean scores were 44·0 (SD 10·5) for the healthy pattern and 52·1 (18·6) for the unhealthy pattern, with weak intercorrelation (r=-0·08) between countries. On average, better diets were seen in older adults compared with younger adults, and in women compared with men (p<0·0001 each). Compared with low-income nations, high-income nations had better diets based on healthy items (+2·5 points, 95% UI 0·3 to 4·1), but substantially poorer diets based on unhealthy items (-33·0, -37·8 to -28·3). Diets and their trends were very heterogeneous across the world regions. For example, both types of dietary patterns improved in high-income countries, but worsened in some low-income countries in Africa and Asia. Middle-income countries showed the largest improvement in dietary patterns based on healthy items, but the largest deterioration in dietary patterns based on unhealthy items. INTERPRETATION Consumption of healthy items improved, while consumption of unhealthy items worsened across the world, with heterogeneity across regions and countries. These global data provide the best estimates to date of nutrition transitions across the world and inform policies and priorities for reducing the health and economic burdens of poor diet quality. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Medical Research Council.

The changing epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara Town, southern Tanzania.

Between 1995 and 2000 there were marked changes in the epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara, southern Tanzania. We documented these changes using parasitological and clinical data from a series of community- and hospital-based studies involving children up to the age of 5 years. There was a right shift and lowering in the age-specific parasite prevalence in the community-based cohort studies. The incidence of clinical malaria in placebo-receiving infants in additional study cohorts dropped from 0.8 in 1995 to 0.43 episodes per infant per year in 2000, an incidence rate ratio of 0.53 (95% confidence interval: 0.404, 0.70, P<0.0001). At the same time, there was an increase in the total number of malaria admissions and a marked right shift in the age pattern of these admissions (median age in 1995 1.55 years vs. 2.33 in 2000, P<0.0001). However, the burden of malaria deaths remained in infants. We discuss how these dramatic changes in the epidemiology of malaria may have arisen from the use of currently available malaria control tools. Caution is required in the interpretation of hospital-based data as it is likely to underestimate the impact of anaemia on mortality in the community, where most paediatric deaths occur. Even in low/moderate malaria transmission settings, where older children suffer most malaria episodes, targeting effective malaria control at infants may produce important reductions in infant mortality caused by malaria.

Poverty, Hunger, Education, and Residential Status Impact Survival in HIV

Despite combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV infected people have higher mortality than non-infected. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) predicts higher mortality in many chronic illnesses but data in people with HIV is limited. We evaluated 878 HIV infected individuals followed from 1995 to 2005. Cox proportional hazards for all-cause mortality were estimated for SES measures and other factors. Mixed effects analyses examined how SES impacts factors predicting death. The 200 who died were older, had lower CD4 counts, and higher viral loads (VL). Age, transmission category, education, albumin, CD4 counts, VL, hunger, and poverty predicted death in univariate analyses; age, CD4 counts, albumin, VL, and poverty in the multivariable model. Mixed models showed associations between (1) CD4 counts with education and hunger; (2) albumin with education, homelessness, and poverty; and (3) VL with education and hunger. SES contributes to mortality in HIV infected persons directly and indirectly, and should be a target of health policy in this population.

The quality of modern cross-sectional ecologic studies: a bibliometric review.

The ecologic study design is routinely used by epidemiologists in spite of its limitations. It is presently unknown how well the challenges of the design are dealt with in epidemiologic research. The purpose of this bibliometric review was to critically evaluate the characteristics, statistical methods, and reporting of results of modern cross-sectional ecologic papers. A search through 6 major epidemiology journals identified all cross-sectional ecologic studies published since January 1, 2000. A total of 125 articles met the inclusion requirements and were assessed via common evaluative criteria. It was found that a considerable number of cross-sectional ecologic studies use unreliable methods or contain statistical oversights; most investigators who adjusted their outcomes for age or sex did so improperly (64%), statistical validity was a potential issue for 20% of regression models, and simple linear regression was the most common analytic approach (31%). Many authors omitted important information when discussing the ecologic nature of their study (31%), the choice of study design (58%), and the susceptibility of their research to the ecological fallacy (49%). These results suggest that there is a need for an international set of guidelines that standardizes reporting on ecologic studies. Additionally, greater attention should be given to the relevant biostatistical literature.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study

BACKGROUND Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. METHODS We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. FINDINGS We analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality. INTERPRETATION Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council.

Accelerating Policy Decisions to Adopt Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccine: A Global, Multivariable Analysis

BACKGROUND Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). METHODS AND FINDINGS Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

The Global Spread of Hepatitis C Virus 1a and 1b: A Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Analysis

BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV. METHODS AND FINDINGS We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries. CONCLUSIONS The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Multiple risk behaviour: increasing socio-economic gap over time?

BACKGROUND Unhealthy behaviours often occur in combination. In this study the relationship between education and lifestyle, defined as a cluster of risk behaviours, has been analysed with the purpose to assess socio-economic changes in multiple risk behaviour over time. METHODS Cross-sectional data from the Belgian Health Interview Surveys 1997, 2001 and 2004 were analysed. This study is restricted to persons aged ≥ 15 years with information on those health behaviours and education (n = 7431, n = 8142 and n = 7459, respectively). A lifestyle index was created based on the sum of the four unhealthy behaviours: smokers vs. non-smokers, risky versus non-risky alcohol use, sedentaryness vs. physically active and poor vs. healthy diet. The lifestyle index was dichotomized as low (0-2) vs. high (3-4). For the assessment of socio-economic inequalities in multiple risk behaviour, summary measures as Odds Ratio (OR) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated using logistic regression, stratified by sex. RESULTS Of the adult population, 7.5% combined three to four unhealthy behaviours. Lower educated men are the most at risk. Besides, the OR among men significantly increased from 1.6 in 2001 to 3.4 in 2004 (P = 0.029). The increase of the OR among women was less pronounced. The RII, on the other hand, did not show any gradient, neither for men nor for women. CONCLUSION Multiple risk behaviour is more common among lower educated people. An increasing polarization in socio-economic inequalities is assessed from 2001 to 2004 among men. Therefore, health promotion programmes should focus on the lower socio-economic classes and target risk behaviours simultaneously.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination and screening in Spain.

BACKGROUND In Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11-14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. METHODS A multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1-5 years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS After the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350€ per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060€/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250€/YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. CONCLUSIONS In Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4-5 years represents the best balance between costs and benefits.

Infectiousness of malaria-endemic human populations to vectors.

Despite its key role in determining the stability and intensity of malaria transmission, the infectiousness of human populations to mosquitoes has rarely been estimated. Field-based analyses of malaria transmission have frequently relied on the prevalence of asexual parasites or gametocytes as proxies for infectiousness. We now summarize empirical data on human infectiousness from Africa and Papua New Guinea. Over a wide range of transmission intensities there is little relationship between the infectiousness of human populations to vector mosquitoes and mosquito-to-human transmission intensity. We compare these data with the predictions of a stochastic simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology. This model predicted little variation in the infectiousness of the human population for entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) greater than approximately 10 infectious bites per year, demonstrating that the lack of relationship between the EIR and the infectious reservoir can be explained without invoking any effects of acquired transmission-blocking immunity. The near absence of field data from areas with an EIR < 10 per year precluded validation of the model predictions for low EIR values. These results suggest that interventions reducing mosquito-to-human transmission will have little or no effect on human infectiousness at the levels of transmission found in most rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Unless very large reductions in transmission can be achieved, measures to prevent mosquito-to-human transmission need to be complemented with interventions that reduce the density or infectiousness of blood stage parasites.

Reversing the tide — diagnosis and prevention of T2DM in populations of African descent

Abstract | Populations of African descent are at the forefront of the worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The burden of T2DM is amplified by diagnosis after preventable complications of the disease have occurred. Earlier detection would result in a reduction in undiagnosed T2DM, more accurate statistics, more informed resource allocation and better health. An underappreciated factor contributing to undiagnosed T2DM in populations of African descent is that screening tests for hyperglycaemia, specifically, fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c, perform sub‐optimally in these populations. To offset this problem, combining tests or adding glycated albumin (a nonfasting marker of glycaemia), might be the way forward. However, differences in diet, exercise, BMI, environment, gene‐environment interactions and the prevalence of sickle cell trait mean that neither diagnostic tests nor interventions will be uniformly effective in individuals of African, Caribbean or African‐American descent. Among these three populations of African descent, intensive lifestyle interventions have been reported in only the African‐American population, in which they have been found to provide effective primary prevention of T2DM but not secondary prevention. Owing to a lack of health literacy and poor glycaemic control in Africa and the Caribbean, customized lifestyle interventions might achieve both secondary and primary prevention. Overall, diagnosis and prevention of T2DM requires innovative strategies that are sensitive to the diversity that exists within populations of African descent.

The Antiretroviral Therapy in Lower Income Countries (ART-LINC) Collaboration and ART Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) groups Summary

BACKGROUND Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naïve adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.

The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a Bayesian coalescent approach.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.

Socioeconomic factors, material inequalities, and perceived control in self-rated health: cross-sectional data from seven post-communist countries.

This study examined the association between perceived control and several socioeconomic variables and self-rated health in seven post-communist countries (Russia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic). Questionnaire interviews were used to collect data on self-rated health in the last 12 months, education, marital status, perceived control based on nine questions, and material deprivation based on availability of food, clothing and heating. For each population, two ecological measures of material inequalities were available: an inequality score estimated from the survey data as the distance between the 90th and 10th percentiles of material deprivation, and Gini coefficient from published sources. Data on 5330 men and women aged 20-60 were analysed. Prevalence of poor health (worse than average) varied between 8% in Czechs and 19% in Hungarians. The age-sex-adjusted odds ratio for university vs primary education was 0.36 (0.26-0.49); odds ratios per 1 standard deviation increase in perceived control and in material deprivation were 0.58 (95% CI 0.48-0.69) and 1.51 (1.40-1.63), respectively. The odds ratio for an increase in inequality equivalent to the difference between the most and the least unequal populations was 1.49 (0.88-2.52) using the material inequality score and 1.41 (0.91-2.20) using the Gini coefficient. No indication of an effect of either inequality measure was seen after adjustment for individuals' deprivation or perceived control. The results suggest that, as in western populations, education and material deprivation are strongly related to self-rated health. Perceived control appeared statistically to mediate some of the effects of material deprivation. The non-significant effects of both ecological measures of inequality were eliminated by controlling for individuals' characteristics.

Integration of mental health into primary healthcare in low-income countries: avoiding medicalization.

Since 2008 the World Health Organization (WHO), through its mental health Gap Action Programme, has attempted to revitalize efforts to integrate mental health into non-specialized (e.g. primary) healthcare. While this has led to renewed interest in this potential method of mental health service delivery, it has also prompted criticism. Some concerns raised are that it would contribute to the medicalization of social and psychological problems, and narrowly focus on primary care without sufficient attention given to strengthening other levels of the healthcare system, notably community-based care and care on district levels. This paper discusses seven elements that may be critical to preventing inadvertently contributing to increasing a narrow biomedical approach to mental healthcare when integrating mental health into non-specialized healthcare: (1) using task shifting approaches within a system of stepped care, (2) ensuring primary mental healthcare also includes brief psychotherapeutic interventions, (3) promote community-based recovery-oriented interventions for people with disabling chronic mental disorders, (4) conceptualizing training as a continuous process of strengthening clinical competencies through supervision, (5) engaging communities as partners in psychosocial interventions, (6) embedding shifts to primary mental healthcare within wider health policy reforms, and (7) promoting inter-sectoral approaches to address social determinants of mental health.

Prevalence, severity, and unmet need for treatment of mental disorders in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

CONTEXT Little is known about the extent or severity of untreated mental disorders, especially in less-developed countries. OBJECTIVE To estimate prevalence, severity, and treatment of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders in 14 countries (6 less developed, 8 developed) in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Face-to-face household surveys of 60 463 community adults conducted from 2001-2003 in 14 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The DSM-IV disorders, severity, and treatment were assessed with the WMH version of the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI), a fully structured, lay-administered psychiatric diagnostic interview. RESULTS The prevalence of having any WMH-CIDI/DSM-IV disorder in the prior year varied widely, from 4.3% in Shanghai to 26.4% in the United States, with an interquartile range (IQR) of 9.1%-16.9%. Between 33.1% (Colombia) and 80.9% (Nigeria) of 12-month cases were mild (IQR, 40.2%-53.3%). Serious disorders were associated with substantial role disability. Although disorder severity was correlated with probability of treatment in almost all countries, 35.5% to 50.3% of serious cases in developed countries and 76.3% to 85.4% in less-developed countries received no treatment in the 12 months before the interview. Due to the high prevalence of mild and subthreshold cases, the number of those who received treatment far exceeds the number of untreated serious cases in every country. CONCLUSIONS Reallocation of treatment resources could substantially decrease the problem of unmet need for treatment of mental disorders among serious cases. Structural barriers exist to this reallocation. Careful consideration needs to be given to the value of treating some mild cases, especially those at risk for progressing to more serious disorders.

Reforming the health sector in developing countries: the central role of policy analysis.

Policy analysis is an established discipline in the industrialized world, yet its application to developing countries has been limited. The health sector in particular appears to have been neglected. This is surprising because there is a well recognized crisis in health systems, and prescriptions abound of what health policy reforms countries should introduce. However, little attention has been paid to how countries should carry out reforms, much less who is likely to favour or resist such policies. This paper argues that much health policy wrongly focuses attention on the content of reform, and neglects the actors involved in policy reform (at the international, national sub-national levels), the processes contingent on developing and implementing change and the context within which policy is developed. Focus on policy content diverts attention from understanding the processes which explain why desired policy outcomes fail to emerge. The paper is organized in 4 sections. The first sets the scene, demonstrating how the shift from consensus to conflict in health policy established the need for a greater emphasis on policy analysis. The second section explores what is meant by policy analysis. The third investigates what other disciplines have written that help to develop a framework of analysis. And the final section suggests how policy analysis can be used not only to analyze the policy process, but also to plan.

Care Seeking for Neonatal Illness in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND Despite recent achievements to reduce child mortality, neonatal deaths continue to remain high, accounting for 41% of all deaths in children under five years of age worldwide, of which over 90% occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Infections are a leading cause of death and limitations in care seeking for ill neonates contribute to high mortality rates. As estimates for care-seeking behaviors in LMICs have not been studied, this review describes care seeking for neonatal illnesses in LMICs, with particular attention to type of care sought. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted a systematic literature review of studies that reported the proportion of caregivers that sought care for ill or suspected ill neonates in LMICs. The initial search yielded 784 studies, of which 22 studies described relevant data from community household surveys, facility-based surveys, and intervention trials. The majority of studies were from South Asia (n = 17/22), set in rural areas (n = 17/22), and published within the last 4 years (n = 18/22). Of the 9,098 neonates who were ill or suspected to be ill, 4,320 caregivers sought some type of care, including care from a health facility (n = 370) or provider (n = 1,813). Care seeking ranged between 10% and 100% among caregivers with a median of 59%. Care seeking from a health care provider yielded a similar range and median, while care seeking at a health care facility ranged between 1% and 100%, with a median of 20%. Care-seeking estimates were limited by the few studies conducted in urban settings and regions other than South Asia. There was a lack of consistency regarding illness, care-seeking, and care provider definitions. CONCLUSIONS There is a paucity of data regarding newborn care-seeking behaviors; in South Asia, care seeking is low for newborn illness, especially in terms of care sought from health care facilities and medically trained providers. There is a need for representative data to describe care-seeking patterns in different geographic regions and better understand mechanisms to enhance care seeking during this vulnerable time period.

Collective trauma in northern Sri Lanka: a qualitative psychosocial-ecological study

BACKGROUND Complex situations that follow war and natural disasters have a psychosocial impact on not only the individual but also on the family, community and society. Just as the mental health effects on the individual psyche can result in non pathological distress as well as a variety of psychiatric disorders; massive and widespread trauma and loss can impact on family and social processes causing changes at the family, community and societal levels. METHOD This qualitative, ecological study is a naturalistic, psychosocial ethnography in Northern Sri Lanka, while actively involved in psychosocial and community mental health programmes among the Tamil community. Participatory observation, key informant interviews and focus group discussion with community level relief and rehabilitation workers and government and non-governmental officials were used to gather data. The effects on the community of the chronic, man-made disaster, war, in Northern Sri Lanka were compared with the contexts found before the war and after the tsunami. RESULTS Fundamental changes in the functioning of the family and the community were observed. While the changes after the tsunami were not so prominent, the chronic war situation caused more fundamental social transformations. At the family level, the dynamics of single parent families, lack of trust among members, and changes in significant relationships, and child rearing practices were seen. Communities tended to be more dependent, passive, silent, without leadership, mistrustful, and suspicious. Additional adverse effects included the breakdown in traditional structures, institutions and familiar ways of life, and deterioration in social norms and ethics. A variety of community level interventions were tried. CONCLUSION Exposure to conflict, war and disaster situations impact on fundamental family and community dynamics resulting in changes at a collective level. Relief, rehabilitation and development programmes to be effective will need to address the problem of collective trauma, particularly using integrated multi-level approaches.

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. METHODS We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. FINDINGS We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. INTERPRETATION Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. FUNDING WHO.

Ecologic versus individual-level sources of bias in ecologic estimates of contextual health effects.

A number of authors have attempted to defend ecologic (aggregate) studies by claiming that the goal of those studies is estimation of ecologic (contextual or group-level) effects rather than individual-level effects. Critics of these attempts point out that ecologic effect estimates are inevitably used as estimates of individual effects, despite disclaimers. A more subtle problem is that ecologic variation in the distribution of individual effects can bias ecologic estimates of contextual effects. The conditions leading to this bias are plausible and perhaps even common in studies of ecosocial factors and health outcomes because social context is not randomized across typical analysis units (administrative regions). By definition, ecologic data contain only marginal observations on the joint distribution of individually defined confounders and outcomes, and so identify neither contextual nor individual-level effects. While ecologic studies can still be useful given appropriate caveats, their problems are better addressed by multilevel study designs, which obtain and use individual as well as group-level data. Nonetheless, such studies often share certain special problems with ecologic studies, including problems due to inappropriate aggregation and problems due to temporal changes in covariate distributions.

Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Modelling the Impact of Artemisinin Combination Therapy and Long-Acting Treatments on Malaria Transmission Intensity

BACKGROUND Artemisinin derivatives used in recently introduced combination therapies (ACTs) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria significantly lower patient infectiousness and have the potential to reduce population-level transmission of the parasite. With the increased interest in malaria elimination, understanding the impact on transmission of ACT and other antimalarial drugs with different pharmacodynamics becomes a key issue. This study estimates the reduction in transmission that may be achieved by introducing different types of treatment for symptomatic P. falciparum malaria in endemic areas. METHODS AND FINDINGS We developed a mathematical model to predict the potential impact on transmission outcomes of introducing ACT as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in six areas of varying transmission intensity in Tanzania. We also estimated the impact that could be achieved by antimalarials with different efficacy, prophylactic time, and gametocytocidal effects. Rates of treatment, asymptomatic infection, and symptomatic infection in the six study areas were estimated using the model together with data from a cross-sectional survey of 5,667 individuals conducted prior to policy change from sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine to ACT. The effects of ACT and other drug types on gametocytaemia and infectiousness to mosquitoes were independently estimated from clinical trial data. Predicted percentage reductions in prevalence of infection and incidence of clinical episodes achieved by ACT were highest in the areas with low initial transmission. A 53% reduction in prevalence of infection was seen if 100% of current treatment was switched to ACT in the area where baseline slide-prevalence of parasitaemia was lowest (3.7%), compared to an 11% reduction in the highest-transmission setting (baseline slide prevalence = 57.1%). Estimated percentage reductions in incidence of clinical episodes were similar. The absolute size of the public health impact, however, was greater in the highest-transmission area, with 54 clinical episodes per 100 persons per year averted compared to five per 100 persons per year in the lowest-transmission area. High coverage was important. Reducing presumptive treatment through improved diagnosis substantially reduced the number of treatment courses required per clinical episode averted in the lower-transmission settings although there was some loss of overall impact on transmission. An efficacious antimalarial regimen with no specific gametocytocidal properties but a long prophylactic time was estimated to be more effective at reducing transmission than a short-acting ACT in the highest-transmission setting. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that ACTs have the potential for transmission reductions approaching those achieved by insecticide-treated nets in lower-transmission settings. ACT partner drugs and nonartemisinin regimens with longer prophylactic times could result in a larger impact in higher-transmission settings, although their long term benefit must be evaluated in relation to the risk of development of parasite resistance.

Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of cancers of unknown primary site in an Australian population: implications for research and clinical care.

OBJECTIVES To investigate incidence, mortality and case survival trends for cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) and consider clinical implications. METHOD South Australian Cancer Registry data were used to calculate age-standardised incidence and mortality rates from 1977 to 2004. Disease-specific survivals, socio-demographic, histological and secular predictors of CUP, compared with cancers of known primary site, and of CUP histological types, using multivariable logistic regression were investigated. RESULTS Incidence and mortality rates increased approximately 60% between 1977--80 and 1981--84. Rates peaked in 1993--96. Male to female incidence and mortality rate ratios approximated 1.3:1. Incidence and mortality rates increased with age. The odds of unspecified histological type, compared with the more common adenocarcinomas, were higher for males than females, non-metropolitan residents, low socio-economic areas, and for 1977--88 than subsequent diagnostic periods. CUP represented a higher proportion of cancers in Indigenous patients. Case survival was 7% at 10 years from diagnosis. Factors predictive of lower case survival included older age, male sex, Indigenous status, lower socio-economic status, and unspecified histology type. CONCLUSION Results point to poor CUP outcomes, but with a modest improvement in survival. The study identifies socio-demographic groups at elevated risk of CUP and of worse treatment outcomes where increased research and clinical attention are required.

Caregiver burden in HIV-positive and HIV-negative partners of men with AIDS.

This study examines factors associated with caregiver burden in 82 HIV-positive (HIV+) and 162 HIV-negative (HIV-) partners of men with AIDS. We expected HIV+ caregivers to report more burden than HIV- caregivers because of the toll of their disease on their resources. HIV+ caregivers did report more burden and, compared with the HIV- caregivers, they were more religious or spiritual, had less income, and coped by using more positive reappraisal and cognitive escape-avoidance and by seeking social support. Comparisons of HIV+ caregivers with 61 HIV+ partners of healthy men indicated that most differences between HIV+ and HIV- caregivers were associated with HIV seropositivity rather than caregiving. However, of the variables associated with HIV seropositivity, only religiosity or spirituality contributed independently to burden in HIV+ caregivers, suggesting a relatively weak link between HIV seropositivity and caregiver burden. The model explained 62% of the variance in burden in HIV+ caregivers and 36% of the variance in HIV- caregivers.

Interactions between Non-Physician Clinicians and Industry: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND With increasing restrictions placed on physician-industry interactions, industry marketing may target other health professionals. Recent health policy developments confer even greater importance on the decision making of non-physician clinicians. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine the types and implications of non-physician clinician-industry interactions in clinical practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS We searched MEDLINE and Web of Science from January 1, 1946, through June 24, 2013, according to PRISMA guidelines. Non-physician clinicians eligible for inclusion were: Registered Nurses, nurse prescribers, Physician Assistants, pharmacists, dieticians, and physical or occupational therapists; trainee samples were excluded. Fifteen studies met inclusion criteria. Data were synthesized qualitatively into eight outcome domains: nature and frequency of industry interactions; attitudes toward industry; perceived ethical acceptability of interactions; perceived marketing influence; perceived reliability of industry information; preparation for industry interactions; reactions to industry relations policy; and management of industry interactions. Non-physician clinicians reported interacting with the pharmaceutical and infant formula industries. Clinicians across disciplines met with pharmaceutical representatives regularly and relied on them for practice information. Clinicians frequently received industry "information," attended sponsored "education," and acted as distributors for similar materials targeted at patients. Clinicians generally regarded this as an ethical use of industry resources, and felt they could detect "promotion" while benefiting from industry "information. " Free samples were among the most approved and common ways that clinicians interacted with industry. Included studies were observational and of varying methodological rigor; thus, these findings may not be generalizable. This review is, however, the first to our knowledge to provide a descriptive analysis of this literature. CONCLUSIONS Non-physician clinicians' generally positive attitudes toward industry interactions, despite their recognition of issues related to bias, suggest that industry interactions are normalized in clinical practice across non-physician disciplines. Industry relations policy should address all disciplines and be implemented consistently in order to mitigate conflicts of interest and address such interactions' potential to affect patient care. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.

Inter- and Intra-Host Viral Diversity in a Large Seasonal DENV2 Outbreak

BACKGROUND High genetic diversity at both inter- and intra-host level are hallmarks of RNA viruses due to the error-prone nature of their genome replication. Several groups have evaluated the extent of viral variability using different RNA virus deep sequencing methods. Although much of this effort has been dedicated to pathogens that cause chronic infections in humans, few studies investigated arthropod-borne, acute viral infections. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We deep sequenced the complete genome of ten DENV2 isolates from representative classical and severe cases sampled in a large outbreak in Brazil using two different approaches. Analysis of the consensus genomes confirmed the larger extent of the 2010 epidemic in comparison to a previous epidemic caused by the same viruses in another city two years before (genetic distance = 0.002 and 0.0008 respectively). Analysis of viral populations within the host revealed a high level of conservation. After excluding homopolymer regions of 454/Roche generated sequences, we found 10 to 44 variable sites per genome population at a frequency of >1%, resulting in very low intra-host genetic diversity. While up to 60% of all variable sites at intra-host level were non-synonymous changes, only 10% of inter-host variability resulted from non-synonymous mutations, indicative of purifying selection at the population level. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE Despite the error-prone nature of RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase, dengue viruses maintain low levels of intra-host variability.

Lessons learnt from malaria epidemics in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the pre-elimination phase of malaria control, but malaria epidemics are still a concern in the south of the country. This retrospective study presents the epidemiological characteristics and predisposing factors of 60 of the malaria epidemics reported in Sistan va Baluchestan province during 2005-09. A zero-truncated negative binomial model was used to investigate the relation between predictor variables and the total number of malaria cases. Malaria epidemics occurred mainly in the southern part of the province, mostly between July and October, peaking in August. Most malaria epidemics were small-scale (68.3% were < 100 cases) and short (51.7% lasted < 1 month). Plasmodium falciparum was present in 46.7% of the epidemics. An increase in the rainfall rate as well as population movements were the most significant predisposing factors. The results may help inform an epidemic investigation and reporting system as the country approaches the malaria elimination phase.

Spatial and Temporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Thai Villages

BACKGROUND Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted. METHODS AND FINDINGS Cluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children. CONCLUSIONS Our data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases.

Unmet needs and depressive symptoms among low--income older adults.

Previous studies have found that declining health, decreased social interaction, and inadequate financial resources were significant risk factors for late-life depression, and social support from families and friends and religiosity were significant protective factors. In this study, we examined if low-income older adults' perceived unmet need for home- and community-based services for many aging-associated problems would be independently associated with their depressive symptoms, controlling for these known risk and protective factors. We interviewed a total of 213 community-residing older adults to assess their depressive symptoms, using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), and unmet needs in the areas of personal assistance, instrumental and environmental support, emotional support, and other facilitative/enabling services. We found that the number of unmet needs was significantly positively associated with these older adults' depressive symptoms, although it explained only a small proportion of the variance of the GDS scores. Future research and practice implications are discussed.

Global and regional risk of disabling sequelae from bacterial meningitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Few data sources are available to assess the global and regional risk of sequelae from bacterial meningitis. We aimed to estimate the risks of major and minor sequelae caused by bacterial meningitis, estimate the distribution of the different types of sequelae, and compare risk by region and income. We systematically reviewed published papers from 1980 to 2008. Standard global burden of disease categories (cognitive deficit, bilateral hearing loss, motor deficit, seizures, visual impairment, hydrocephalus) were labelled as major sequelae. Less severe, minor sequelae (behavioural problems, learning difficulties, unilateral hearing loss, hypotonia, diplopia), and multiple impairments were also included. 132 papers were selected for inclusion. The median (IQR) risk of at least one major or minor sequela after hospital discharge was 19.9% (12.3-35.3%). The risk of at least one major sequela was 12.8% (7.2-21.1%) and of at least one minor sequela was 8.6% (4.4-15.3%). The median (IQR) risk of at least one major sequela was 24.7% (16.2-35.3%) in pneumococcal meningitis; 9.5% (7.1-15.3%) in Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and 7.2% (4.3-11.2%) in meningococcal meningitis. The most common major sequela was hearing loss (33.9%), and 19.7% had multiple impairments. In the random-effects meta-analysis, all-cause risk of a major sequela was twice as high in the African (pooled risk estimate 25.1% [95% CI 18.9-32.0%]) and southeast Asian regions (21.6% [95% CI 13.1-31.5%]) as in the European region (9.4% [95% CI 7.0-12.3%]; overall I(2)=89.5%, p<0.0001). Risks of long-term disabling sequelae were highest in low-income countries, where the burden of bacterial meningitis is greatest. Most reported sequelae could have been averted by vaccination with Hib, pneumococcal, and meningococcal vaccines.

Reducing Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission in Africa: A Model-Based Evaluation of Intervention Strategies

BACKGROUND Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools. METHODS AND FINDINGS We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (<1% parasite prevalence in all age-groups) provided usage levels are high and sustained. In two of the moderate-transmission settings (EIR approximately 43 and 81 ibppy), additional rounds of IRS with DDT coupled with MSAT could drive parasite prevalence below a 1% threshold. However, in the third (EIR = 46) with An. arabiensis prevailing, these interventions are insufficient to reach this threshold. In both high-transmission settings (EIR approximately 586 and 675 ibppy), either unrealistically high coverage levels (>90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels. CONCLUSIONS Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required.

Primary prevention of ischemic stroke: A statement for healthcare professionals from the Stroke Council of the American Heart Association.

Stroke ranks as the third leading cause of death in the United States. It is now estimated that there are more than 700 000 incident strokes annually and 4.4 million stroke survivors.1 2 The economic burden of stroke was estimated by the American Heart Association to be $51 billion (direct and indirect costs) in 1999.3 Despite the advent of treatment of selected patients with acute ischemic stroke with tissue plasminogen activator and the promise of other experimental therapies, the best approach to reducing the burden of stroke remains prevention.4 5 High-risk or stroke-prone individuals can be identified and targeted for specific interventions.6 This is important because epidemiological data suggest a substantial leveling off of prior declines in stroke-related mortality and a possible increase in stroke incidence.7 8   The Stroke Council of the American Heart Association formed an ad hoc writing group to provide a clear and concise overview of the evidence regarding various established and potential stroke risk factors. The writing group was chosen based on expertise in specific subject areas, and it used literature review, reference to previously published guidelines, and expert opinion to summarize existing evidence and formulate recommendations (Table 1⇓). View this table:   Table 1. Levels of Evidence and Grading of Recommendations    As given in Tables 2 through 4⇓⇓⇓, risk factors or risk markers for a first stroke were classified according to potential for modification (nonmodifiable, modifiable, or potentially modifiable) and strength of evidence (well documented, less well documented).5 The tables give the estimated prevalence, population attributable risk, relative risk, and risk reduction with treatment for each factor when known. Population attributable risk reflects the proportion of ischemic strokes in the population that can be attributed to a particular risk factor and is given by the formula 100×[prevalence(relative risk−1)/prevalence(relative risk−1)+1]). …

Impact of low alcohol verbal descriptors on perceived strength: An experimental study

OBJECTIVES Low alcohol labels are a set of labels that carry descriptors such as 'low' or 'lighter' to denote alcohol content in beverages. There is growing interest from policymakers and producers in lower strength alcohol products. However, there is a lack of evidence on how the general population perceives verbal descriptors of strength. The present research examines consumers' perceptions of strength (% ABV) and appeal of alcohol products using low or high alcohol verbal descriptors. DESIGN A within-subjects experimental study in which participants rated the strength and appeal of 18 terms denoting low (nine terms), high (eight terms) and regular (one term) strengths for either (1) wine or (2) beer according to drinking preference. METHODS Thousand six hundred adults (796 wine and 804 beer drinkers) sampled from a nationally representative UK panel. RESULTS Low, Lower, Light, Lighter, and Reduced formed a cluster and were rated as denoting lower strength products than Regular, but higher strength than the cluster with intensifiers consisting of Extra Low, Super Low, Extra Light, and Super Light. Similar clustering in perceived strength was observed amongst the high verbal descriptors. Regular was the most appealing strength descriptor, with the low and high verbal descriptors using intensifiers rated least appealing. CONCLUSIONS The perceived strength and appeal of alcohol products diminished the more the verbal descriptors implied a deviation from Regular. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of policy implications for lower strength alcohol labelling and associated public health outcomes. Statement of contribution What is already known about this subject? Current UK and EU legislation limits the number of low strength verbal descriptors and the associated alcohol by volume (ABV) to 1.2% ABV and lower. There is growing interest from policymakers and producers to extend the range of lower strength alcohol products above the current cap of 1.2% ABV set out in national legislation. There is a lack of evidence on how the general population perceives verbal descriptors of alcohol product strength (both low and high). What does this study add? Verbal descriptors of lower strength wine and beer form two clusters and effectively communicate reduced alcohol content. Low, Lower, Light, Lighter, and Reduced were considered lower in strength than Regular (average % ABV). Descriptors using intensifiers (Extra Low, Super Low, Extra Light, and Super Light) were considered lowest in strength. Similar clustering in perceived strength was observed amongst the high verbal descriptors. The appeal of alcohol products reduced the more the verbal descriptors implied a deviation from Regular.

Pandemic H1N12009 influenza and HIV: a review of natural history, management and vaccine immunogenicity.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW The 2009 pandemic HIN1 influenza strain (H1N12009) produced more severe disease and increased risk for mortality. As an at-risk population for more severe influenza illness, particular concern regarding HIV patients triggered a focused effort to evaluate disease burden and vaccine efficacy in these populations. RECENT FINDINGS As with other immune-compromised individuals, most HIV-infected individuals recovered without major consequence. Although HIV infection was assumed to be a risk factor for more severe disease and death, the published literature does not indicate this to be so. Neuraminadase inhibitors were well tolerated by this population and there was no evidence of clinically significant pharmacokinetic interactions with antiretroviral therapy. Immunogenicity was increased with H1N12009 vaccine compared to the historical results of nonpandemic vaccines and optimized by the use of adjuvants. Booster dosing was also of benefit. H1N12009 vaccine was generally well tolerated without evidence of detrimental effect on HIV status. SUMMARY The worse case scenario was not realized for H1N12009 in the general population or in those with HIV. Immunization with adjuvant represents a key measure to protect this population from H1N12009 and other future novel influenza strains.

Ecology, economics and political will: the vicissitudes of malaria strategies in Asia.

The documented history of malaria in parts of Asia goes back more than 2,000 years, during which the disease has been a major player on the socioeconomic stage in many nation states as they waxed and waned in power and prosperity. On a much shorter time scale, the last half century has seen in microcosm a history of large fluctuations in endemicity and impact of malaria across the spectrum of rice fields and rain forests, mountains and plains that reflect the vast ecological diversity inhabited by this majority aggregation of mankind. That period has seen some of the most dramatic changes in social and economic structure, in population size, density and mobility, and in political structure in history: all have played a part in the changing face of malaria in this extensive region of the world. While the majority of global malaria cases currently reside in Africa, greater numbers inhabited Asia earlier this century before malaria programs savored significant success, and now Asia harbors a global threat in the form of the epicenter of multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum which is gradually encompassing the tropical world. The latter reflects directly the vicissitudes of economic change over recent decades, particularly the mobility of populations in search of commerce, trade and personal fortunes, or caught in the misfortunes of physical conflicts. The period from the 1950s to the 1990s has witnessed near "eradication" followed by resurgence of malaria in Sri Lanka, control and resurgence in India, the influence of war and postwar instability on drug resistance in Cambodia, increase in severe and cerebral malaria in Myanmar during prolonged political turmoil, the essential disappearance of the disease from all but forested border areas of Thailand where it remains for the moment intractable, the basic elimination of vivax malaria from many provinces of central China. Both positive and negative experiences have lessons to teach in the debate between eradication and control as alternative strategies. China has for years held high the goal of "basic elimination", eradication by another name, in sensible semi-defiance of WHO dictates. The Chinese experience makes it clear that, given community organization, exhaustive attention to case detection, management and focus elimination, plus the political will at all levels of society, it is possible both to eliminate malaria from large areas of an expansive nation and to implement surveillance necessary to maintain something approaching eradication status in those areas. But China has not succeeded in the international border regions of the tropical south where unfettered population movement confounds the program. Thailand, Malaysia and to an extent Vietnam have also reached essential elimination in their rice field plains by vigorous vertical programs but fall short at their forested borders. Economics is central to the history of the rise and fall of nations, and to the history of disease in the people who constitute nations. The current love affair with free market economics as the main driving force for advance of national wealth puts severe limitations on the essential involvement of communities in malaria management. The task of malaria control or elimination needs to be clearly related to the basic macroeconomic process that preoccupies governments, not cloistered away in the health sector Historically malaria has had a severe, measurable, negative impact on the productivity of nations. Economic models need rehoning with political aplomb and integrating with technical and demographic strategies. Recent decades in Chinese malaria history carry some lessons that may be relevant in this context.

How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination. " It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication. " Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination. " Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment.

Geovisual analytics to enhance spatial scan statistic interpretation: an analysis of U.S. cervical cancer mortality

BACKGROUND Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and its software implementation - SaTScan - are widely used for detecting and evaluating geographic clusters. However, two issues make using the method and interpreting its results non-trivial: (1) the method lacks cartographic support for understanding the clusters in geographic context and (2) results from the method are sensitive to parameter choices related to cluster scaling (abbreviated as scaling parameters), but the system provides no direct support for making these choices. We employ both established and novel geovisual analytics methods to address these issues and to enhance the interpretation of SaTScan results. We demonstrate our geovisual analytics approach in a case study analysis of cervical cancer mortality in the U.S.   RESULTS We address the first issue by providing an interactive visual interface to support the interpretation of SaTScan results. Our research to address the second issue prompted a broader discussion about the sensitivity of SaTScan results to parameter choices. Sensitivity has two components: (1) the method can identify clusters that, while being statistically significant, have heterogeneous contents comprised of both high-risk and low-risk locations and (2) the method can identify clusters that are unstable in location and size as the spatial scan scaling parameter is varied. To investigate cluster result stability, we conducted multiple SaTScan runs with systematically selected parameters. The results, when scanning a large spatial dataset (e.g., U.S. data aggregated by county), demonstrate that no single spatial scan scaling value is known to be optimal to identify clusters that exist at different scales; instead, multiple scans that vary the parameters are necessary. We introduce a novel method of measuring and visualizing reliability that facilitates identification of homogeneous clusters that are stable across analysis scales. Finally, we propose a logical approach to proceed through the analysis of SaTScan results. CONCLUSION The geovisual analytics approach described in this manuscript facilitates the interpretation of spatial cluster detection methods by providing cartographic representation of SaTScan results and by providing visualization methods and tools that support selection of SaTScan parameters. Our methods distinguish between heterogeneous and homogeneous clusters and assess the stability of clusters across analytic scales. METHOD We analyzed the cervical cancer mortality data for the United States aggregated by county between 2000 and 2004. We ran SaTScan on the dataset fifty times with different parameter choices. Our geovisual analytics approach couples SaTScan with our visual analytic platform, allowing users to interactively explore and compare SaTScan results produced by different parameter choices. The Standardized Mortality Ratio and reliability scores are visualized for all the counties to identify stable, homogeneous clusters. We evaluated our analysis result by comparing it to that produced by other independent techniques including the Empirical Bayes Smoothing and Kafadar spatial smoother methods. The geovisual analytics approach introduced here is developed and implemented in our Java-based Visual Inquiry Toolkit.

Epidemiology, health-related quality of life and economic burden of binge eating disorder: a systematic literature review

PURPOSE To perform a systematic review on the epidemiology, the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and economic burden of binge eating disorder (BED). METHODS A systematic literature search of English-language articles was conducted using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Academic Search Complete, CINAHL Plus, Business Source Premier and Cochrane Library. Literature search on epidemiology was limited to studies published between 2009 and 2013. Cost data were inflated and converted to 2012 US$ purchasing power parities. All of the included studies were assessed for quality. RESULTS Forty-nine articles were included. Data on epidemiology were reported in 31, HRQoL burden in 16, and economic burden in 7 studies. Diagnosis of BED was made using 4th Edition of The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria in 46 studies. Lifetime prevalence of BED was 1.1-1.9% in the general population (DSM-IV). BED was associated with significant impairment in aspects of HRQoL relating to both physical and mental health; the Short Form 36 Physical and Mental Component Summary mean scores varied between 31.1 to 47.3 and 32.0 to 49.8, respectively. Compared to individuals without eating disorder, BED was related to increased healthcare utilization and costs. Annual direct healthcare costs per BED patient ranged between $2,372 and $3,731. CONCLUSIONS BED is a serious eating disorder that impairs HRQoL and is related to increased healthcare utilization and healthcare costs. The limited literature warrants further research, especially to better understand the long-term HRQoL and economic burden of BED.

What influences government adoption of vaccines in developing countries? A policy process analysis.

This paper proposes a framework for examining the process by which government consideration and adoption of new vaccines takes place, with specific reference to developing country settings. The cases of early Hepatitis B vaccine adoption in Taiwan and Thailand are used to explore the relevance of explanatory factors identified in the literature as well as the need to go beyond a variable-centric focus by highlighting the role of policy context and process in determining the pace and extent of adoption. The cases suggest the feasibility and importance of modeling 'causal diversity'-the complex set of necessary and sufficient conditions leading to particular decisional outcomes-in a broad range of country contexts. A better understanding of the lenses through which government decision-makers filter information, and of the arenas in which critical decisions are shaped and taken, may assist both analysts (in predicting institutionalization of new vaccines) and advocates (in crafting targeted strategies to accelerate their diffusion).

Developing primary palliative care.

Although 65% of people with cancer want to die at home, only about 30% are successful in doing so.1,2 A government committed to choice for patients must improve this figure.3 Developing palliative care services in primary care is essential for realising the expectations of dying people. Such services could also offer important opportunities for extending supportive humane care at an earlier stage, and to people not only with cancer but with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, motor neurone disease, and cardiac failure, for example, who also often have palliative care needs. Primary care professionals have the potential and ability to provide end of life care for most patients, given adequate training, resources, and, when needed, specialist advice.4,5 They share common values with palliative care specialists—holistic, patient centred care, delivered in the context of families and friends.6 However, until recently, apart from Macmillan general practitioners and nurse facilitators, few comprehensive workforce initiatives have been undertaken in primary care that focus on end of life care. Many cancer patients and their carers experience existential distress long before they die.7 Recognising and alleviating such suffering is important, but it often goes unrecognised or is overlooked by services focusing on the terminal phase of illnesses. Primary care teams may know patients over long periods of time. They can readily identify patients from cancer and chronic disease registers who might benefit from an early palliative care approach. Such patients could be identified by clinicians asking one simple question of themselves: “Would I be surprised if my patient were to die in the next 12 months?”8 By identifying such patients proactively we could deliver, simultaneously, active treatment and patient centred supportive care, through a team with whom many patients have a valued long term relationship. Palliative care services need to be extended to patients with non-malignant conditions who have comparable concerns to and in some cases even greater unmet needs than cancer patients.9 Progress by palliative medicine specialists is hampered by issues such as uncertainty about the most effective models of care, lack of non-cancer expertise, and concerns about pressure on specialist services. General practitioners and community nurses can lead the way in providing a palliative care approach for patients with terminal organ failure illness. The first step in such an approach is for the goals of care to be discussed and agreed. Management plans are adjusted accordingly. Effective control of symptoms and maintaining quality of life are prioritised. In the light of these important opportunities it is regrettable that the new general medical services contract has not prioritised palliative care. By day, other developments to achieve the quality indicators are taking precedence. By night and at weekends, the new unscheduled care services (which are responsible for providing care for 75% of the hours in the week) are even less well configured than previous out of hours provision to facilitate dying at home. Such services specialise in dealing with acute emergencies and, as such, often struggle to meet the medical, nursing, and social care needs of dying people and their families. These changes will greatly affect care for dying people and may increase the number of hospital admissions. However, one important initiative is gaining momentum within primary care. The Gold Standards Framework is a resource for organising proactive palliative care in the community and is supported by funding from the Cancer Services Collaborative, Macmillan Cancer Relief, and the National Lottery.10 The framework provides a detailed guide to providing holistic, patient centred care and thereby facilitates effective care in the community. Other recently initiated mechanisms for developing primary palliative care include the training of general practitioners with a special interest in palliative care and the new end of life initiative in England to improve palliative care provision by generalists and to share examples of good practice. To support such developments it is essential that primary palliative care is supported by an adequate academic base.11 This is admittedly a challenging arena in which to undertake research, but progress has been made in recent years in developing conceptual models and research architectures for studying end of life issues. Now we need to build on this work to ensure that the understanding and insights gleaned can be translated into effective interventions. Every person with a progressive illness has a right to palliative care.12 Patients desire a reassuring professional presence in the face of death. General practitioners and community nurses are trusted by patients and are in a position to provide effective, equitable, and accessible palliative care. This will happen only if they have adequate time and resources and work in a system that encourages such care. Patients who receive holistic support in the community may be less likely to require expensive admission to hospital and often futile treatments at the end of their lives.

Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: assessing what we really know.

High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or gamma-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is approximately 10-50 mSv for an acute exposure and approximately 50-100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

Dementia incidence and mortality in middle-income countries, and associations with indicators of cognitive reserve: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve. METHODS We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3-5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death. FINDINGS 12,887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11,718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34,718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4-2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9-15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56-5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4-19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56-1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61-0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81-0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95-1·13). INTERPRETATION Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia. FUNDING Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV.

Political and economic aspects of the transition to universal health coverage.

Countries have reached universal health coverage by different paths and with varying health systems. Nonetheless, the trajectory toward universal health coverage regularly has three common features. The first is a political process driven by a variety of social forces to create public programmes or regulations that expand access to care, improve equity, and pool financial risks. The second is a growth in incomes and a concomitant rise in health spending, which buys more health services for more people. The third is an increase in the share of health spending that is pooled rather than paid out-of-pocket by households. This pooled share is sometimes mobilised as taxes and channelled through governments that provide or subsidise care--in other cases it is mobilised in the form of contributions to mandatory insurance schemes. The predominance of pooled spending is a necessary condition (but not sufficient) for achieving universal health coverage. This paper describes common patterns in countries that have successfully provided universal access to health care and considers how economic growth, demographics, technology, politics, and health spending have intersected to bring about this major development in public health.

Tuberculosis mortality in England and Wales during 1982-1992: its association with poverty, ethnicity and AIDS.

This paper seeks to establish the strength of association between contemporary tuberculosis (TB) in England and Wales and several potential aetiological factors. It presents an ecological analysis of standardised annual TB mortality rates for the 403 local authority districts between 1982 and 1992, disaggregated by age and sex. Social, demographic and ethnicity measures from the 1981 and 1991 censuses and standardised annual AIDS-related mortality rates for young men are used to calculate Poisson regression models. A strong association was found between all TB mortality groups and overcrowding at the household level. For women, no other measures improved the explanatory power of the models. In multiple regressions, both poverty and AIDS-related mortality explained additional variation in the model for younger men. The link between ethnicity and tuberculosis notifications was not reflected in this analysis of mortality. For all groups no evidence of a positive relationship with ethnicity was found, once overcrowding had been accounted for. The significance of household as opposed to district level crowding suggests that prolonged contact is required for disease transmission. Regression analysis indicates that it is the overcrowding and poverty among ethnic populations that is significant for their tuberculosis mortality. The fact that the relationship between AIDS and TB is confined to the group most typical of AIDS patients provides evidence that AIDS has little influence on the level of tuberculosis mortality in the wider population. Explanations for the observed relationship include preferential certification, migration for treatment and shortcomings in health care provision.

Nanotoxicology: An Emerging Discipline Evolving from Studies of Ultrafine Particles

Although humans have been exposed to airborne nanosized particles (NSPs; < 100 nm) throughout their evolutionary stages, such exposure has increased dramatically over the last century due to anthropogenic sources. The rapidly developing field of nanotechnology is likely to become yet another source through inhalation, ingestion, skin uptake, and injection of engineered nanomaterials. Information about safety and potential hazards is urgently needed. Results of older biokinetic studies with NSPs and newer epidemiologic and toxicologic studies with airborne ultrafine particles can be viewed as the basis for the expanding field of nanotoxicology, which can be defined as safety evaluation of engineered nanostructures and nanodevices. Collectively, some emerging concepts of nanotoxicology can be identified from the results of these studies. When inhaled, specific sizes of NSPs are efficiently deposited by diffusional mechanisms in all regions of the respiratory tract. The small size facilitates uptake into cells and transcytosis across epithelial and endothelial cells into the blood and lymph circulation to reach potentially sensitive target sites such as bone marrow, lymph nodes, spleen, and heart. Access to the central nervous system and ganglia via translocation along axons and dendrites of neurons has also been observed. NSPs penetrating the skin distribute via uptake into lymphatic channels. Endocytosis and biokinetics are largely dependent on NSP surface chemistry (coating) and in vivo surface modifications. The greater surface area per mass compared with larger-sized particles of the same chemistry renders NSPs more active biologically. This activity includes a potential for inflammatory and pro-oxidant, but also antioxidant, activity, which can explain early findings showing mixed results in terms of toxicity of NSPs to environmentally relevant species. Evidence of mitochondrial distribution and oxidative stress response after NSP endocytosis points to a need for basic research on their interactions with subcellular structures. Additional considerations for assessing safety of engineered NSPs include careful selections of appropriate and relevant doses/concentrations, the likelihood of increased effects in a compromised organism, and also the benefits of possible desirable effects. An interdisciplinary team approach (e.g., toxicology, materials science, medicine, molecular biology, and bioinformatics, to name a few) is mandatory for nanotoxicology research to arrive at an appropriate risk assessment.

Who is where at risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A spatial epidemiological analysis of health insurance claims for COPD in Northeastern Germany

BACKGROUND Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a high prevalence rate in Germany and a further increase is expected within the next years. Although risk factors on an individual level are widely understood, only little is known about the spatial heterogeneity and population-based risk factors of COPD. Background knowledge about broader, population-based processes could help to plan the future provision of healthcare and prevention strategies more aligned to the expected demand. The aim of this study is to analyze how the prevalence of COPD varies across northeastern Germany on the smallest spatial-scale possible and to identify the location-specific population-based risk factors using health insurance claims of the AOK Nordost. METHODS To visualize the spatial distribution of COPD prevalence at the level of municipalities and urban districts, we used the conditional autoregressive Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model. Geographically weighted regression modelling (GWR) was applied to analyze the location-specific ecological risk factors for COPD. RESULTS The sex- and age-adjusted prevalence of COPD was 6.5% in 2012 and varied widely across northeastern Germany. Population-based risk factors consist of the proportions of insurants aged 65 and older, insurants with migration background, household size and area deprivation. The results of the GWR model revealed that the population at risk for COPD varies considerably across northeastern Germany. CONCLUSION Area deprivation has a direct and an indirect influence on the prevalence of COPD. Persons ageing in socially disadvantaged areas have a higher chance of developing COPD, even when they are not necessarily directly affected by deprivation on an individual level. This underlines the importance of considering the impact of area deprivation on health for planning of healthcare. Additionally, our results reveal that in some parts of the study area, insurants with migration background and persons living in multi-persons households are at elevated risk of COPD.

Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The relation between past exposure to fine particulate air pollution and prevalent anxiety: observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE To determine whether higher past exposure to particulate air pollution is associated with prevalent high symptoms of anxiety. DESIGN Observational cohort study. SETTING Nurses' Health Study. PARTICIPANTS 71,271 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study residing throughout the contiguous United States who had valid estimates on exposure to particulate matter for at least one exposure period of interest and data on anxiety symptoms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Meaningfully high symptoms of anxiety, defined as a score of 6 points or greater on the phobic anxiety subscale of the Crown-Crisp index, administered in 2004. RESULTS The 71,271 eligible women were aged between 57 and 85 years (mean 70 years) at the time of assessment of anxiety symptoms, with a prevalence of high anxiety symptoms of 15%. Exposure to particulate matter was characterized using estimated average exposure to particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) and 2.5 to 10 μm in diameter (PM2.5-10) in the one month, three months, six months, one year, and 15 years prior to assessment of anxiety symptoms, and residential distance to the nearest major road two years prior to assessment. Significantly increased odds of high anxiety symptoms were observed with higher exposure to PM2.5 for multiple averaging periods (for example, odds ratio per 10 µg/m(3) increase in prior one month average PM2.5: 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.19; in prior 12 month average PM2.5: 1.15, 1.06 to 1.26). Models including multiple exposure windows suggested short term averaging periods were more relevant than long term averaging periods. There was no association between anxiety and exposure to PM2.5-10. Residential proximity to major roads was not related to anxiety symptoms in a dose dependent manner. CONCLUSIONS Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was associated with high symptoms of anxiety, with more recent exposures potentially more relevant than more distant exposures. Research evaluating whether reductions in exposure to ambient PM2.5 would reduce the population level burden of clinically relevant symptoms of anxiety is warranted.

Sudden infant death syndrome.

Despite declines in prevalence during the past two decades, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) continues to be the leading cause of death for infants aged between 1 month and 1 year in developed countries. Behavioural risk factors identified in epidemiological studies include prone and side positions for infant sleep, smoke exposure, soft bedding and sleep surfaces, and overheating. Evidence also suggests that pacifier use at sleep time and room sharing without bed sharing are associated with decreased risk of SIDS. Although the cause of SIDS is unknown, immature cardiorespiratory autonomic control and failure of arousal responsiveness from sleep are important factors. Gene polymorphisms relating to serotonin transport and autonomic nervous system development might make affected infants more vulnerable to SIDS. Campaigns for risk reduction have helped to reduce SIDS incidence by 50-90%. However, to reduce the incidence even further, greater strides must be made in reducing prenatal smoke exposure and implementing other recommended infant care practices. Continued research is needed to identify the pathophysiological basis of SIDS.

Husbands' involvement in delivery care utilization in rural Bangladesh: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND A primary cause of high maternal mortality in Bangladesh is lack of access to professional delivery care. Examining the role of the family, particularly the husband, during pregnancy and childbirth is important to understanding women's access to and utilization of professional maternal health services that can prevent maternal mortality. This qualitative study examines husbands' involvement during childbirth and professional delivery care utilization in a rural sub-district of Netrokona district, Bangladesh. METHODS Using purposive sampling, ten households utilizing a skilled attendant during the birth of the youngest child were selected and matched with ten households utilizing an untrained traditional birth attendant, or dhatri. Households were selected based on a set of inclusion criteria, such as approximate household income, ethnicity, and distance to the nearest hospital. Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted in Bangla with husbands in these households in June 2010. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analyzed using NVivo 9.0. RESULTS By purposefully selecting households that differed on the type of provider utilized during delivery, common themes--high costs, poor transportation, and long distances to health facilities--were eliminated as sufficient barriers to the utilization of professional delivery care. Divergent themes, namely husbands' social support and perceived social norms, were identified as underlying factors associated with delivery care utilization. We found that husbands whose wives utilized professional delivery care provided emotional, instrumental and informational support to their wives during delivery and believed that medical intervention was necessary. By contrast, husbands whose wives utilized an untrained dhatri at home were uninvolved during delivery and believed childbirth should take place at home according to local traditions. CONCLUSIONS This study provides novel evidence about male involvement during childbirth in rural Bangladesh. These findings have important implications for program planners, who should pursue culturally sensitive ways to involve husbands in maternal health interventions and assess the effectiveness of education strategies targeted at husbands.

Chronic stress and psychological well-being: evidence from Thailand on household crowding.

This paper examines the effect of one form of chronic stress--household crowding--on psychological well-being, as measured by multiple inverse indicators of psychological well-being. We rely on data from a large (n = 2017) random sample of households in Bangkok, Thailand, a context that has a higher level and broader range of crowding than typically found in the United States. Objective household crowding is found to be detrimental to psychological well-being, controlling for a number of background characteristics. The effect of objective crowding is mediated by subjective crowding, which has strong, consistent and direct detrimental effects on well-being. There is no evidence of a gender effect. Extended family households are not uncommon in Bangkok, but the effects of objective and subjective crowding are similar in both two- and three-generation households, as well as in one- and multiple-couple households. The argument that subjective crowding is an effect, rather than a cause, of psychological well-being is examined and rejected. The findings suggest that crowding, as a chronic source of stress, constitutes a major threat to psychological well-being. Although the empirical analyses are based on data from one city, we frame the issue of household crowding in a historical and theoretical context in order to suggest in which cultural settings household crowding is most likely to have detrimental effects on psychological well-being.

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

The adverse consequences of unmet need among older persons living in the community: dual-eligible versus Medicare-only beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE Our objective is to estimate and compare the prevalence of selected adverse consequences associated with unmet need for assistance among a socioeconomically and medically vulnerable subgroup of the older adult population, those who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, with those eligible for Medicare only. METHOD Using data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a representative survey of the older Medicare population, we calculated the prevalence of disability-related need for assistance with self-care, household tasks, and mobility activities and the prevalence of adverse consequences of unmet need by dually eligible and Medicare only status. RESULTS Over 2 million community-dwelling older persons experienced an adverse consequence due to unmet need for assistance with self-care (e.g., soiled their clothes), over 2 million experienced adverse consequences due to unmet need for assistance with household tasks (e.g., went without groceries), and over 3 million persons experienced at least one adverse consequence of unmet need for assistance with mobility-related activities (e.g., had to stay in bed) in the month prior to the NHATS interview. Dually eligible persons experienced higher rates of 6 of the 11 adverse consequences studied and were more likely to have at least one adverse consequence in all 3 domains than others. DISCUSSION Several care models are emerging with the goal of integrating medical care, behavioral health, and long-term services for the dual eligible population. Indicators of adverse consequences of unmet need could be used to monitor the quality and adequacy of such care systems.

Evidence-based interventions for improvement of maternal and child nutrition: what can be done and at what cost?

Maternal undernutrition contributes to 800,000 neonatal deaths annually through small for gestational age births; stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies are estimated to underlie nearly 3·1 million child deaths annually. Progress has been made with many interventions implemented at scale and the evidence for effectiveness of nutrition interventions and delivery strategies has grown since The Lancet Series on Maternal and Child Undernutrition in 2008. We did a comprehensive update of interventions to address undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in women and children and used standard methods to assess emerging new evidence for delivery platforms. We modelled the effect on lives saved and cost of these interventions in the 34 countries that have 90% of the world's children with stunted growth. We also examined the effect of various delivery platforms and delivery options using community health workers to engage poor populations and promote behaviour change, access and uptake of interventions. Our analysis suggests the current total of deaths in children younger than 5 years can be reduced by 15% if populations can access ten evidence-based nutrition interventions at 90% coverage. Additionally, access to and uptake of iodised salt can alleviate iodine deficiency and improve health outcomes. Accelerated gains are possible and about a fifth of the existing burden of stunting can be averted using these approaches, if access is improved in this way. The estimated total additional annual cost involved for scaling up access to these ten direct nutrition interventions in the 34 focus countries is Int$9·6 billion per year. Continued investments in nutrition-specific interventions to avert maternal and child undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies through community engagement and delivery strategies that can reach poor segments of the population at greatest risk can make a great difference. If this improved access is linked to nutrition-sensitive approaches--ie, women's empowerment, agriculture, food systems, education, employment, social protection, and safety nets--they can greatly accelerate progress in countries with the highest burden of maternal and child undernutrition and mortality.

Staphylococcus aureus infection dynamics

Staphylococcus aureus is a human commensal that can also cause systemic infections. This transition requires evasion of the immune response and the ability to exploit different niches within the host. However, the disease mechanisms and the dominant immune mediators against infection are poorly understood. Previously it has been shown that the infecting S. aureus population goes through a population bottleneck, from which very few bacteria escape to establish the abscesses that are characteristic of many infections. Here we examine the host factors underlying the population bottleneck and subsequent clonal expansion in S. aureus infection models, to identify underpinning principles of infection. The bottleneck is a common feature between models and is independent of S. aureus strain. Interestingly, the high doses of S. aureus required for the widely used "survival" model results in a reduced population bottleneck, suggesting that host defences have been simply overloaded. This brings into question the applicability of the survival model. Depletion of immune mediators revealed key breakpoints and the dynamics of systemic infection. Loss of macrophages, including the liver Kupffer cells, led to increased sensitivity to infection as expected but also loss of the population bottleneck and the spread to other organs still occurred. Conversely, neutrophil depletion led to greater susceptibility to disease but with a concomitant maintenance of the bottleneck and lack of systemic spread. We also used a novel microscopy approach to examine abscess architecture and distribution within organs. From these observations we developed a conceptual model for S. aureus disease from initial infection to mature abscess. This work highlights the need to understand the complexities of the infectious process to be able to assign functions for host and bacterial components, and why S. aureus disease requires a seemingly high infectious dose and how interventions such as a vaccine may be more rationally developed.

The association between common physical impairments and dementia in low and middle income countries, and, among people with dementia, their association with cognitive function and disability. A 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based study.

OBJECTIVE Chronic physical comorbidity is common in dementia. However, there is an absence of evidence to support good practice guidelines for attention to these problems. We aimed to study the extent of this comorbidity and its impact on cognitive function and disability in population-based studies in low and middle income countries, where chronic diseases and impairments are likely to be both common and undertreated. METHODS A multicentre cross-sectional survey of all over 65 year old residents (n = 15 022) in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru. We estimated the prevalence of pain, incontinence, hearing and visual impairments, mobility impairment and undernutrition according to the presence of dementia and its severity, and, among those with dementia, the independent contribution of these impairments to cognitive function and disability, adjusting for age, gender, education and dementia severity. RESULTS Incontinence, hearing impairment, mobility impairment and undernutrition were consistently linearly associated with the presence of dementia and its severity across regions. Among people with dementia, incontinence, hearing impairment and mobility impairment were independently associated with disability in all regions while the contributions of pain, visual impairment and undernutrition were inconsistent. Only hearing impairment made a notable independent contribution to cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS There is an urgent need for clinical trials of the feasibility, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of regular physical health checks and remediation of identified pathologies, given the considerable comorbidity identified in our population based studies, and the strong evidence for independent impact upon functioning.

Neighborhood Racial/Ethnic Concentration, Social Disadvantage, and Homicide Risk: An Ecological Analysis of 10 U.S. Cities

Homicide is one of the leading causes of death among African-American and Hispanic men. We investigated how neighborhood characteristics associated with social disadvantage explain racial/ethnic homicide gaps in 10 U.S. cities. The test hypotheses were that (1) higher concentrations of African-Americans and Hispanics would be associated with higher homicide rates and (2) the relationship between racial/ethnic concentration and homicide would be attenuated after adjusting for neighborhood characteristics (e.g., unemployment, median household income, low educational attainment, and female headship). The test hypotheses were examined using separate Poisson regression models, which adjusted for spatial autocorrelation. Homicide rates were greater in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of African-Americans and Hispanics than in other groups, and the association of neighborhood racial/ethnic concentration with homicide was reduced after adjusting for neighborhood social disadvantage variables, especially percent female head of household and percent persons with less than a high school education. We also found that the relationship between neighborhood racial/ethnic concentration and homicide was explained more by social disadvantage variables in some cities than in others. Based on our findings, policy makers may wish to consider implementation of policies that (1) expand early childhood education programs and higher education opportunities and (2) encourage economic and community development initiatives in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods.

The financial cost of doctors emigrating from sub-Saharan Africa: human capital analysis

OBJECTIVE To estimate the lost investment of domestically educated doctors migrating from sub-Saharan African countries to Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. DESIGN Human capital cost analysis using publicly accessible data. SETTINGS Sub-Saharan African countries. PARTICIPANTS Nine sub-Saharan African countries with an HIV prevalence of 5% or greater or with more than one million people with HIV/AIDS and with at least one medical school (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), and data available on the number of doctors practising in destination countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The financial cost of educating a doctor (through primary, secondary, and medical school), assuming that migration occurred after graduation, using current country specific interest rates for savings converted to US dollars; cost according to the number of source country doctors currently working in the destination countries; and savings to destination countries of receiving trained doctors. RESULTS In the nine source countries the estimated government subsidised cost of a doctor's education ranged from $21,000 (£13,000; €15,000) in Uganda to $58,700 in South Africa. The overall estimated loss of returns from investment for all doctors currently working in the destination countries was $2.17bn (95% confidence interval 2.13bn to 2.21bn), with costs for each country ranging from $2.16m (1.55m to 2.78m) for Malawi to $1.41bn (1.38bn to 1.44bn) for South Africa. The ratio of the estimated compounded lost investment over gross domestic product showed that Zimbabwe and South Africa had the largest losses. The benefit to destination countries of recruiting trained doctors was largest for the United Kingdom ($2.7bn) and United States ($846m). CONCLUSIONS Among sub-Saharan African countries most affected by HIV/AIDS, lost investment from the emigration of doctors is considerable. Destination countries should consider investing in measurable training for source countries and strengthening of their health systems.

Variations and Trends in Health Burden of Visual Impairment Due to Cataract: A Global Analysis.

Purpose To evaluate the global trends in health burden of people visually impaired from cataract in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and its correlations with national levels of socioeconomic development. Methods Global, regional, and national DALY numbers, crude rate, and age-standardized rate of cataract vision loss by age and sex were obtained from the database of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The human development index, per capita gross domestic product, and other country-level data were derived from international open databases. Regression analysis was used to assess the correlations between age-standardized DALY rate and socioeconomic variables. Results The global DALY numbers of cataract vision loss increased by 89.42%, from 2048.18 (95%CI [confidence interval]: 1457.60-2761.80) thousands in 1990 to 3879.74 (95% CI: 2766.07-5232.43) thousands in 2015 (P < 0.001). Females had higher DALY number 315.83 (95%CI: 237.17-394.4) and crude rate 38.29 (95%CI: 35.35-41.23) after adjusting for age and country (all P < 0.001). The age-standardized DALY rate was higher in countries with low human development index (HDI), with 91.03 (95%CI: 73.04-108.75) for low HDI, 81.67 (95%CI: 53.24-108.82) for medium HDI, 55.89 (95%CI: 36.87-69.63) for high HDI, and 17.10 (95%CI: 13.91-26.84) for very high HDI countries (P < 0.01), respectively. The national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 were negatively associated with both HDI (R2 = 0.489, P < 0.001) and per capita gross domestic product (R2 = 0.331, P < 0.001). Stepwise multiple regression showed that HDI was significantly correlated with national age-standardized DALY rates in 2015 after adjusting for other confounding factors (P < 0.001). Conclusions The global health burden of vision loss due to cataract increased between 1990 and 2015 despite considerable efforts from the World Health Organization and VISION 2020 initiatives.

Rembrandt Scholz

This paper examines the potential impact of changes in medical care on changing population health in Lithuania, Hungary and Romania, with west Germany included for comparison. We used the concept of deaths from certain causes that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care (amenable mortality) and calculated the contribution of changes in mortality from these conditions to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e (0-75)] for the periods 1980/81 to 1988 and 1992 to 1997. Temporary life expectancy improved consistently in west Germany (men: 2.7 years, women: 1.6 years). In contrast, gains were relatively small in the other countries, except among Hungarian women, who gained 1.3 years. Romanian men lost 1.3 years. In the 1980s, falling infant mortality made a substantial contribution to improvements in temporary life expectancy in all countries, of about a quarter to half a year. Of this, more than half can be attributed to amenable conditions. At older ages, falling amenable mortality contributed about 40% among those aged over 40 in Germany and, to a lesser extent, Hungary, while causing a loss of life expectancy in Romania. In the 1990s, improvements in infant mortality continued to make substantial contributions to life expectancy in Lithuania and Hungary but had little impact in either Germany or Romania. Among adults, improvements in amenable mortality continued to benefit Hungarians and west Germans. In Lithuania, up to two-thirds of the gain in temporary life expectancy were attributable to falling mortality from ischaemic heart disease whereas medical care otherwise seems to have had a negative impact. Romanian men and women experienced increases in amenable mortality that contributed up to a half of the overall loss of life expectancy. Our findings suggest that during the last 20 years changes in medical care had considerable impact, positively as well as negatively, on changing mortality in selected central and eastern European countries.

Open Access Increases Citation Rate

PLoS Biology publishes today a research article by Gunther Eysenbach that is not about biology. It is about citations. It provides robust evidence that open-access articles (OA articles) are more immediately recognized and cited than non-OA articles. As such, it adds objective support to the belief we have always held that open-access publication speeds up scientific dialog between researchers and, consequently, should be extended to the whole scientific literature as quickly as possible. It is therefore fitting that we publish such a paper. We have long argued that papers freely available in a journal will be more often read and cited than those behind a subscription barrier. However, solid evidence to support or refute such a claim has been surprisingly hard to find. Since most open-access journals are new, comparisons of the effects of open access with established subscription-based journals are easily confounded by age and reputation. In the current study, Eysenbach compared citations compiled by Thomson Scientific (formerly Thomson ISI) to individual articles published between June 2004 and December 2004 in the same journal—namely, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), which announced its open-access option for authors on June 8 of that year, with an associated publication charge of US$1,000. Non-OA articles in PNAS are subject to a six-month “toll-access” delay before the article becomes publicly available. The results of this natural experiment are clear: in the 4 to 16 months following publication, OA articles gained a significant citation advantage over non-OA articles during the same period. They are twice as likely to be cited 4 to 10 months after publication and almost three times as likely between 10 and 16 months. Given that PNAS delays open access for only six months, the disparity between OA and non-OA articles in journals where the delay is longer or where articles remain “toll-access” is likely to be even greater. Eysenbach also looked at the impact of self-archiving non-OA articles. One route to open access, it is argued, is for authors to archive their published articles on their own Web sites or in institutional repositories, although this does not include an explicit business model to cover the cost of peer-review and publishing. The analysis revealed that self-archived articles are also cited less often than OA articles from the same journal. Yes, you're right; we do have a strong and vested interest in publishing results that so obviously endorse our existence. Moreover, the author of the article is also an editor of an open-access journal. But sometimes a potential conflict of interest can actually help to ensure rigor. In this case, we have an acute interest in ensuring that the article meets the same, if not higher, standards as any other research article we publish. Not only must the conclusions provide a significant advance for the field, but the study must be technically sound, with appropriate evidence to support those conclusions. As with all our research articles, we consulted throughout the evaluation process with an academic editor with appropriate expertise—in this case, Carol Tenopir, professor of information sciences at the University of Tennessee (Knoxville, Tennessee, United States). The article was reviewed by two experts in bibliometric analyses and information science, and an experienced research biologist with expertise in statistics. They all enthusiastically supported publication, although one understandably questioned the suitability of PLoS Biology as the publication venue. We have no intention of making PLoS Biology a regular home for bibliometric studies (even when about open access). What makes this study worth publishing in PLoS Biology is not only the relative strength of evidence supporting the claim but also the extent to which many (especially other publishers) have anticipated such an analysis. As far as we are aware, no other study has compared OA and non-OA articles from the same journal and controlled for so many potentially confounding factors. Eysenbach's multivariate analysis took into account the number of days since publication, number of authors, article type, country of the corresponding author, funding type, subject area, submission track ( PNAS has three different ways that authors can submit a paper), and the previous citation record of the first and last authors. He even administered a supplementary questionnaire to assess whether authors choosing the OA option in PNAS chose to do so for only their most important research (they didn't). As Ian Rowlands from the Centre for Publishing at University College London—and one of the reviewers who agreed to be identified in this article—said at the start of his review:          “Many (most) of the papers and presentations I have read/seen on this topic have completely failed to address the kinds of confounding issues that are so convincingly tackled here. For that reason alone, this paper deserves to be published and alerted to the widest possible audience. ”          In addition to providing evidence for the immediate advantage of open access, Eysenbach's analysis also highlights several potential challenges to its long-term future. Although a limited dataset, the citation history of the first and last authors differed between those who chose the open-access option and those who did not. In the group that chose open access, last authors tended to have a “stronger” previous citation record, whereas this situation was reversed among the group that declined the open-access option—here, it was the first authors who tended to be stronger. This may reflect varying attitudes of authors at different stages of their career, a stronger influence from the leader of a particular group, or an age- or career-related difference in the ability to pay the publication charge (e.g., [ 1]). Indeed, access to appropriate funds may also be a reason why a lower proportion of authors from European countries tended to choose the open-access option. In many of these countries, funds for page charges—and, by extension, open-access publication fees—are often not included within research grants. PNAS was one of the first journals to offer an open-access option to its authors. However, such hybrid journals are increasing: Blackwell, Springer, and Oxford University Press now provide this option as well. This means that similar experiments can be replicated. Moreover, although the evidence from the current analysis argues most strongly for a time advantage in citation for OA articles, a study over longer periods will reveal whether this translates into a sustained increase in the number of citations. In the meantime, open-access advocates should be emboldened by tangible evidence for what has seemed obvious all along.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

IMPORTANCE Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States.

Until the 1990s, Amblyomma americanum was regarded primarily as a nuisance species, but a tick of minor importance as a vector of zoonotic pathogens affecting humans. With the recent discoveries of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, and "Borrelia lonestari," the public health relevance of lone star ticks is no longer in question. During the next 25 years, the number of cases of human disease caused by A. americanum-associated pathogens will probably increase. Based on current trajectories and historic precedents, the increase will be primarily driven by biological and environmental factors that alter the geographic distribution and intensity of transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Sociologic and demographic changes that influence the likelihood of highly susceptible humans coming into contact with infected lone star ticks, in addition to advances in diagnostic capabilities and national surveillance efforts, will also contribute to the anticipated increase in the number of recognized cases of disease.

The epidemiology of sexually transmitted co-infections in HIV-positive and HIV-negative African-Caribbean women in Toronto

BACKGROUND HIV disproportionately affects African-Caribbean women in Canada but the frequency and distribution of sexually transmitted infections in this community have not been previously studied. METHODS We recruited women based on HIV status through a Toronto community health centre. Participants completed a socio-behavioural questionnaire using Audio Computer Assisted Self-Interview (ACASI) and provided blood for syphilis, HIV, hepatitis B and C, herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and human cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology, urine for chlamydia and gonorrhea molecular testing and vaginal secretions for bacterial vaginosis (BV) and human papillomavirus (HPV). Differences in prevalence were assessed for statistical significance using chi-square. RESULTS We recruited 126 HIV-positive and 291 HIV-negative women, with a median age of 40 and 31 years, respectively (p < 0.001). Active HBV infection and lifetime exposure to HBV infection were more common in HIV-positive women (4.8% vs. 0.34%, p = 0.004; and 47.6% vs. 21.2%, p < 0.0001), as was a self-reported history of HBV vaccination (66.1% vs. 44.0%, p = 0.0001). Classical STIs were rare in both groups; BV prevalence was low and did not vary by HIV status. HSV-2 infection was markedly more frequent in HIV-positive (86.3%) than HIV-negative (46.6%) women (p < 0.0001). Vaginal HPV infection was also more common in HIV-positive than in HIV-negative women (50.8% vs. 22.6%, p < 0.0001) as was infection with high-risk oncogenic HPV types (48.4% vs. 17.3%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Classical STIs were infrequent in this clinic-based population of African-Caribbean women in Toronto. However, HSV-2 prevalence was higher than that reported in previous studies in the general Canadian population and was strongly associated with HIV infection, as was infection with hepatitis B and HPV.

Estimates of global prevalence of childhood underweight in 1990 and 2015.

CONTEXT One key target of the United Nations Millennium Development goals is to reduce the prevalence of underweight among children younger than 5 years by half between 1990 and 2015. OBJECTIVE To estimate trends in childhood underweight by geographic regions of the world. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Time series study of prevalence of underweight, defined as weight 2 SDs below the mean weight for age of the National Center for Health Statistics and World Health Organization (WHO) reference population. National prevalence rates derived from the WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, which includes data on approximately 31 million children younger than 5 years who participated in 419 national nutritional surveys in 139 countries from 1965 through 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to estimate prevalence rates and numbers of underweight children by region in 1990 and 2015 and to calculate the changes (ie, increase or decrease) to these values between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS Worldwide, underweight prevalence was projected to decline from 26.5% in 1990 to 17.6% in 2015, a change of -34% (95% confidence interval [CI], -43% to -23%). In developed countries, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, a change of -41% (95% CI, -92% to 343%). In developing regions, the prevalence was forecasted to decline from 30.2% to 19.3%, a change of -36% (95% CI, -45% to -26%). In Africa, the prevalence of underweight was forecasted to increase from 24.0% to 26.8%, a change of 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). In Asia, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 35.1% to 18.5%, a change of -47% (95% CI, -58% to -34%). Worldwide, the number of underweight children was projected to decline from 163.8 million in 1990 to 113.4 million in 2015, a change of -31% (95% CI, -40% to -20%). Numbers are projected to decrease in all subregions except the subregions of sub-Saharan, Eastern, Middle, and Western Africa, which are expected to experience substantial increases in the number of underweight children. CONCLUSIONS An overall improvement in the global situation is anticipated; however, neither the world as a whole, nor the developing regions, are expected to achieve the Millennium Development goals. This is largely due to the deteriorating situation in Africa where all subregions, except Northern Africa, are expected to fail to meet the goal.

"The contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of dependence among older people in Latin America, China and India: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey"

BACKGROUND The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries. METHODS A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated. RESULTS The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%). CONCLUSION The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Prevent HIV Infection: Current Status, Future Opportunities and Challenges

As the global incidence of HIV exceeds 2 million new infections annually, effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission are needed. Randomized, placebo-controlled studies have demonstrated that daily oral antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with a fixed-dose combination tablet containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine can significantly reduce HIV incidence among diverse at-risk populations. In these studies, the efficacy of PrEP was correlated with levels of adherence. Official guidelines recommend provision of PrEP to people at greatest risk of HIV acquisition, and demonstration projects suggest that high levels of uptake and adherence are possible outside of controlled studies. However, several potential barriers to implementing PrEP remain. These challenges include low awareness and utilization of PrEP by at-risk individuals, uncertainty about adherence in ‘real-world’ settings, the majority of healthcare providers being untrained in PrEP provision, limited data about potential adverse effects from long-term use of tenofovir–emtricitabine, high costs of PrEP medications, and stigma associated with PrEP use and the behaviors that would warrant PrEP. Innovative pharmacologic chemoprophylactic approaches could provide solutions to some of these challenges. Less-than-daily oral dosing regimens and long-acting injectable medications could reduce pill burdens and facilitate adherence, and local delivery of PrEP medications to genital compartments via gels, rings and films may limit systemic drug exposure and potential toxicities. As the portfolio of chemoprophylactic agents and delivery systems expands to meet the diverse sexual health needs and product preferences of individuals who may benefit from PrEP, it is hoped that antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis could become an acceptable, feasible, and highly effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies.

Preexisting helminth infection induces inhibition of innate pulmonary anti-tuberculosis defense by engaging the IL-4 receptor pathway

Tuberculosis and helminthic infections coexist in many parts of the world, yet the impact of helminth-elicited Th2 responses on the ability of the host to control Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection has not been fully explored. We show that mice infected with the intestinal helminth Nippostrongylus brasiliensis (Nb) exhibit a transitory impairment of resistance to airborne Mtb infection. Furthermore, a second dose of Nb infection substantially increases the bacterial burden in the lungs of co-infected mice. Interestingly, the Th2 response in the co-infected animals did not impair the onset and development of the protective Mtb-specific Th1 cellular immune responses. However, the helminth-induced Th2 environment resulted in the accumulation of alternatively activated macrophages (AAMs) in the lung. Co-infected mice lacking interleukin (IL) 4Rα exhibited improved ability to control Mtb infection, which was accompanied by significantly reduced accumulation of AAMs. Moreover, IL-4Rα(-/-) mice adoptively transferred with wild-type macrophages had a significantly higher Mtb load in their lungs compared with those that received IL-4Rα(-/-) macrophages, suggesting a direct contribution for the IL-4R pathway to the heightened susceptibility of co-infected animals. The Th2 response can thus enhance the intracellular persistence of Mtb, in part by mediating the alternative activation of macrophages via the IL-4Rα signaling pathway.

Global prevalence of anxiety disorders: a systematic review and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND The literature describing the global prevalence of anxiety disorders is highly variable. A systematic review and meta-regression were undertaken to estimate the prevalence of anxiety disorders and to identify factors that may influence these estimates. The findings will inform the new Global Burden of Disease study. Method A systematic review identified prevalence studies of anxiety disorders published between 1980 and 2009. Electronic databases, reference lists, review articles and monographs were searched and experts then contacted to identify missing studies. Substantive and methodological factors associated with inter-study variability were identified through meta-regression analyses and the global prevalence of anxiety disorders was calculated adjusting for study methodology. RESULTS The prevalence of anxiety disorders was obtained from 87 studies across 44 countries. Estimates of current prevalence ranged between 0.9% and 28.3% and past-year prevalence between 2.4% and 29.8%. Substantive factors including gender, age, culture, conflict and economic status, and urbanicity accounted for the greatest proportion of variability. Methodological factors in the final multivariate model (prevalence period, number of disorders and diagnostic instrument) explained an additional 13% of variance between studies. The global current prevalence of anxiety disorders adjusted for methodological differences was 7.3% (4.8-10.9%) and ranged from 5.3% (3.5-8.1%) in African cultures to 10.4% (7.0-15.5%) in Euro/Anglo cultures. CONCLUSIONS Anxiety disorders are common and the substantive and methodological factors identified here explain much of the variability in prevalence estimates. Specific attention should be paid to cultural differences in responses to survey instruments for anxiety disorders.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum transmission along the Kenyan coast.

The seasonal dynamics and spatial distributions of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum parasites were studied for one year at 30 villages in Malindi, Kilifi, and Kwale Districts along the coast of Kenya. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled inside houses at each site once every two months and malaria parasite prevalence in local school children was determined at the end of the entomologic survey. A total of 5,476 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 3,461 An. funestus were collected. Species in the An. gambiae complex, identified by a polymerase chain reaction, included 81.9% An. gambiae s.s., 12.8% An. arabiensis, and 5.3% An. merus. Anopheles gambiae s.s. contributed most to the transmission of P. falciparum along the coast as a whole, while An. funestus accounted for more than 50% of all transmission in Kwale District. Large spatial heterogeneity of transmission intensity (< 1 up to 120 infective bites per person per year) resulted in correspondingly large and significantly related variations in parasite prevalence (range = 38-83%). Thirty-two percent of the sites (7 of 22 sites) with malaria prevalences ranging from 38% to 70% had annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIR) less than five infective bites per person per year. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus densities in Kwale were not significantly influenced by rainfall. However, both were positively correlated with rainfall one and three months previously in Malindi and Kilifi Districts, respectively. These unexpected variations in the relationship between mosquito populations and rainfall suggest environmental heterogeneity in the predominant aquatic habitats in each district. One important conclusion is that the highly non-linear relationship between EIRs and prevalence indicates that the consistent pattern of high prevalence might be governed by substantial variation in transmission intensity measured by entomologic surveys. The field-based estimate of entomologic parameters on a district level does not provide a sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in this study.

Urban malaria and anaemia in children: a cross-sectional survey in two cities of Ghana.

OBJECTIVE To describe the epidemiology of urban malaria, an emerging problem in sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD Cross-sectional surveys of communities in Accra and Kumasi, Ghana, determining risk factors for malaria infection and anaemia in children aged 6-60 months. RESULTS Malaria prevalence rates ranged from 2% to 33% between urban communities. 47.1% of children were anaemic (Hb<11.0 g/dl). Factors associated with malaria prevalence were low socio-economic status, age and anaemia. The attributable risks of anaemia and severe anaemia (Hb<8.0 g/dl) caused by malaria were 5% and 23% respectively. CONCLUSIONS Malaria in urban areas displayed a heterogeneity and complexity that differed from the rural environment, which has important implications for malaria control. Marked intra-city variation indicates the importance of targeting specific areas or districts. The most vulnerable group, the urban poor, should be prioritized when designing control measures. This would require careful assessment of the malaria risk pattern in any city to guide an integrated control program.

Predictors of mammographic density: insights gained from a novel regression analysis of a twin study.

Understanding which factors influence mammographically dense and nondense areas is important because percent mammographic density adjusted for age is a strong, continuously distributed risk factor for breast cancer, especially when adjusted for weight or body mass index. Using computer-assisted methods, we measured mammographically dense areas for 571 monozygotic and 380 dizygotic Australian and North American twin pairs ages 40 to 70 years. We used a novel regression modeling approach in which each twin's measure of dense and nondense area was regressed against one or both of the twin's and co-twin's covariates. The nature of changes to regression estimates with the inclusion of the twin and/or co-twin's covariates can be evaluated for consistency with causal and/or other models. By causal, we mean that if it were possible to vary a covariate experimentally then the expected value of the outcome measure would change. After adjusting for the individual's weight, the co-twin associations with weight were attenuated, consistent with a causal effect of weight on mammographic measures, which in absolute log cm(2)/kg was thrice stronger for nondense than dense area. After adjusting for weight, later age at menarche, and greater height were associated with greater dense and lesser nondense areas in a manner inconsistent with causality. The associations of dense and nondense areas with parity are consistent with a causal effect and/or within-person confounding. The associations between mammographic density measures and height are consistent with shared early life environmental factors that predispose to both height and percent mammographic density and possibly breast cancer risk.

Knowledge gaps and misconceptions about coronary heart disease among U.S. South Asians.

BACKGROUND Although South Asians are at higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) than most other U.S. racial/ethnic groups, very little research has addressed this disparity. PURPOSE As a first step in developing culturally targeted CHD prevention messages for this rapidly growing community, this study examined South Asians' knowledge and beliefs about CHD. METHODS Analyses, conducted in 2009, were based on data collected from January to July 2008 in a cross-sectional study population of 270 South Asian adults in Illinois. Interviews were conducted in English, Hindi, or Urdu using a standardized questionnaire. Multivariate regression models were used to examine the associations between sociodemographics and CHD knowledge and attitudes about preventability. RESULTS Eighty-one percent of respondents had one or more CHD risk factors. Most participants (89%) said they knew little or nothing about CHD. Stress was the most frequently mentioned risk factor (44%). Few mentioned controlling blood pressure (11%); cholesterol (10%); and diabetes (5%) for prevention. Fifty-three percent said that heart attacks are not preventable. Low education level, being interviewed in Urdu or Hindi, and low level of acculturation were associated with less knowledge and believing that CHD is not preventable. CONCLUSIONS A majority of South Asians in this study believed that CHD is not preventable and had low awareness of modifiable risk factors. As a first step, CHD education should target the knowledge gaps that may affect risk factor control and behavior change. Educational messages may need to be somewhat different for subgroups (e.g., by education and language) to be maximally effective.

Obesity as a medical problem.

Obesity is now so common within the world's population that it is beginning to replace undernutrition and infectious diseases as the most significant contributor to ill health. In particular, obesity is associated with diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, certain forms of cancer, and sleep-breathing disorders. Obesity is defined by a body-mass index (weight divided by square of the height) of 30 kg m(-2) or greater, but this does not take into account the morbidity and mortality associated with more modest degrees of overweight, nor the detrimental effect of intra-abdominal fat. The global epidemic of obesity results from a combination of genetic susceptibility, increased availability of high-energy foods and decreased requirement for physical activity in modern society. Obesity should no longer be regarded simply as a cosmetic problem affecting certain individuals, but an epidemic that threatens global well being.

Candida albicans-Staphylococcus aureus polymicrobial peritonitis modulates host innate immunity.

Despite advances in medical device fabrication and antimicrobial treatment therapies, fungal-bacterial polymicrobial peritonitis remains a serious complication for surgery patients, those on peritoneal dialysis, and the critically ill. Using a murine model of peritonitis, we have demonstrated that monomicrobial infection with Candida albicans or Staphylococcus aureus is nonlethal. However, coinfection with these same doses leads to a 40% mortality rate and increased microbial burden in the spleen and kidney by day 1 postinfection. Using a multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we have also identified a unique subset of innate proinflammatory cytokines (interleukin-6, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, keratinocyte chemoattractant, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α) that are significantly increased during polymicrobial versus monomicrobial peritonitis, leading to increased inflammatory infiltrate into the peritoneum and target organs. Treatment of coinfected mice with the cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin reduces the infectious burden, proinflammatory cytokine production, and inflammatory infiltrate while simultaneously preventing any mortality. Further experiments demonstrated that the immunomodulatory eicosanoid prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) is synergistically increased during coinfection compared to monomicrobial infection; indomethacin treatment also decreased elevated PGE2 levels. Furthermore, addition of exogenous PGE2 into the peritoneal cavity during infection overrode the protection provided by indomethacin and restored the increased mortality and microbial burden. Importantly, these studies highlight the ability of fungal-bacterial coinfection to modulate innate inflammatory events with devastating consequences to the host.

The Impact of the New WHO Antiretroviral Treatment Guidelines on HIV Epidemic Dynamics and Cost in South Africa

BACKGROUND Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs. METHODS AND FINDING We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years. CONCLUSIONS Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

Geographical access to healthcare in Northern England and post-mortem diagnosis of cancer.

BACKGROUND There is some previous evidence that diagnosis of cancer at death, recorded as registry death certificate only records, is associated with problems of access to care. METHODS Records from the Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry for patients registered with breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian or prostate cancer between 1994 and 2002 were supplemented with measures of travel time to general practitioner and hospital services, and social deprivation. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of records where diagnosis was at death. RESULTS There was no association between the odds diagnosis at death and access to primary care. For all sites except breast, the highest odds of being a cancer diagnosed at death fell among those living in the highest quartile of hospital travel time, although it was only statistically significant for colorectal and ovary tumours. Those in the most deprived and furthest travel time to hospital quartile were 2.6 times more likely to be a diagnosis at death case compared with those in the most affluent and proximal areas. CONCLUSIONS There is some evidence that poorer geographical access to tertiary care, in particular when coupled with social disadvantages, may be associated with increased odds of diagnosis at death.

painDETECT: a new screening questionnaire to identify neuropathic components in patients with back pain.

OBJECTIVE Nociceptive and neuropathic components both contribute to pain. Since these components require different pain management strategies, correct pain diagnosis before and during treatment is highly desirable. As low back pain (LBP) patients constitute an important subgroup of chronic pain patients, we addressed the following issues: (i) to establish a simple, validated screening tool to detect neuropathic pain (NeP) components in chronic LBP patients, (ii) to determine the prevalence of neuropathic pain components in LBP in a large-scale survey, and (iii) to determine whether LBP patients with an NeP component suffer from worse, or different, co-morbidities. METHODS In co-operation with the German Research Network on Neuropathic Pain we developed and validated the painDETECT questionnaire (PD-Q) in a prospective, multicentre study and subsequently applied it to approximately 8000 LBP patients. RESULTS The PD-Q is a reliable screening tool with high sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive accuracy; these were 84% in a palm-top computerised version and 85%, 80% and 83%, respectively, in a corresponding pencil-and-paper questionnaire. In an unselected cohort of chronic LBP patients, 37% were found to have predominantly neuropathic pain. Patients with NeP showed higher ratings of pain intensity, with more (and more severe) co-morbidities such as depression, panic/anxiety and sleep disorders. This also affected functionality and use of health-care resources. On the basis of given prevalence of LBP in the general population, we calculated that 14.5% of all female and 11.4% of all male Germans suffer from LBP with a predominant neuropathic pain component. CONCLUSION Simple, patient-based, easy-to-use screening questionnaires can determine the prevalence of neuropathic pain components both in individual LBP patients and in heterogeneous cohorts of such patients. Since NeP correlates with more intense pain, more severe co-morbidity and poorer quality of life, accurate diagnosis is a milestone in choosing appropriate therapy.

COPD: epidemiology, prevalence, morbidity and mortality, and disease heterogeneity.

COPD continues to cause a heavy health and economic burden both in the United States and around the world. Some of the risk factors for COPD are well-known and include smoking, occupational exposures, air pollution, airway hyperresponsiveness, asthma, and certain genetic variations, although many questions, such as why < 20% of smokers develop significant airway obstruction, remain. Precise definitions of COPD vary and are frequently dependent on an accurate diagnosis of the problem by a physician. These differences in the definition of COPD can have large effects on the estimates of COPD in the population. Furthermore, evidence that COPD represents several different disease processes with potentially different interventions continues to emerge. In most of the world, COPD prevalence and mortality are still increasing and likely will continue to rise in response to increases in smoking, particularly by women and adolescents. Resources aimed at smoking cessation and prevention, COPD education and early detection, and better treatment will be of the most benefit in our continuing efforts against this important cause of morbidity and mortality.

Prevalence of the Metabolic Syndrome Among Us Adults: Findings From the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Metabolic syndrome is diagnosed when three or more of the following criteria are met: abdominal obesity (waist circumference more than 102 cm in men and 88 cm in women); hypertriglyceridemia of 150 mg/dl or above; a high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level less than 40 mg/dl in men or 50 mg/dl in women; blood pressure of 130/85 mm Hg or higher; or fasting glucose of at least 110 mg/dl. Individuals with metabolic syndrome are likelier than others to develop diabetes and cardiovascular disease and have increased mortality from all causes (and from cardiovascular disease in particular). The investigators attempted to determine the prevalence of the syndrome in the United States by analyzing data on 8814 men and women 20 years of age or older who took part in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the years 1988 to 1994. This is a cross-sectional health survey of a sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian American population. The overall age-adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 23.7%. The prevalence rose from 6.7% in persons 20 to 29 years of age to 42% in those aged 70 years and more. There was virtually no gender-related difference in prevalence rates for the combined racial groups. Metabolic syndrome was most prevalent in Mexican Americans and least prevalent in whites, African Americans, and "others. " Among both African Americans and Mexican Americans, women had higher prevalence rates than men. Extrapolating from age-specific prevalence rates and US census counts from the year 2000, 47 million US residents have metabolic syndrome. Considering its prevalence, it seems important to estimate the direct medical costs of metabolic syndrome. In the great majority of cases the critical causes are improper nutrition and insufficient physical activity, emphasizing the importance of controlling obesity and encouraging physical activity in the United States.

Identifying common impairments in frail and dependent older people: validation of the COPE assessment for non-specialised health workers in low resource primary health care settings

BACKGROUND Frail and dependent older people in resource-poor settings are poorly served by health systems that lack outreach capacity. The COPE (Caring for Older PEople) multidimensional assessment tool is designed to help community health workers (CHWs) identify clinically significant impairments and deliver evidence-based interventions   METHODS Older people (n = 150) identified by CHWs as frail or dependent, were assessed at home by the CHW using the structured COPE assessment tool, generating information on impairments in nutrition, mobility, vision, hearing, continence, cognition, mood and behaviour. The older people were reassessed by local physicians who reached a clinical judgment regarding the presence or absence of the same impairments based upon clinical examination guided by the EASY-Care assessment tool. RESULTS The COPE tool was considered easy to administer, and gave CHWs a sense of empowerment to understand and act upon the needs of older people. Agreement between COPE assessment by CHW and clinician assessors was modest (ranged from 45.8 to 91.3 %) for most impairments. However, the prevalence of impairments was generally higher according to clinicians, particularly for visual impairment (98.7 vs 45.8 %), cognitive impairment (78.4 vs. 38.2 %) and depression (82.0 vs. 59.9 %). Most cases identified by WHO-COPE were clinician confirmed (positive predictive values - 72.2 to 98.5 %), and levels of disability and needs for care among those identified by COPE were higher than those additionally identified by the clinician alone. CONCLUSIONS The COPE is a feasible tool for the identification of specific impairments in frail dependent older people in the community. Those identified are likely to be confirmed as having clinically relevant problems by clinicians working in the same service, and the COPE may be particularly effective at targeting attention upon those with the most substantial unmet needs.

Home birth and barriers to referring women with obstetric complications to hospitals: a mixed-methods study in Zahedan, southeastern Iran

BACKGROUND One factor that contributes to high maternal mortality in developing countries is the delayed use of Emergency Obstetric-Care (EmOC) facilities. The objective of this study was to determine the factors that hinder midwives and parturient women from using hospitals when complications occur during home birth in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iran, where 23% of all deliveries take place in non- hospital settings. METHODS In the study and data management, a mixed-methods approach was used. In the quantitative phase, we compared the existing health-sector data with World Health Organization (WHO) standards for the availability and use of EmOC services. The qualitative phase included collection and analysis of interviews with midwives and traditional birth attendants and twenty-one in-depth interviews with mothers. The data collected in this phase were managed according to the principles of qualitative data analysis. RESULTS The findings demonstrate that three distinct factors lead to indecisiveness and delay in the use of EmOC by the midwives and mothers studied. Socio-cultural and familial reasons compel some women to choose to give birth at home and to hesitate seeking professional emergency care for delivery complications. Apprehension about being insulted by physicians, the necessity of protecting their professional integrity in front of patients and an inability to persuade their patients lead to an over-insistence by midwives on completing deliveries at the mothers' homes and a reluctance to refer their patients to hospitals. The low quality and expense of EmOC and the mothers' lack of health insurance also contribute to delays in referral. CONCLUSIONS Women who choose to give birth at home accept the risk that complications may arise. Training midwives and persuading mothers and significant others who make decisions about the value of referring women to hospitals at the onset of life-threatening complications are central factors to increasing the use of available hospitals. The hospitals must be safe, comfortable and attractive environments for parturition and should give appropriate consideration to the ethical and cultural concerns of the women. Appropriate management of financial and insurance-related issues can help midwives and mothers make a rational decision when complications arise.

Mortality from causes amenable and non-amenable to medical care: the experience of eastern Europe.

OBJECTIVE To investigate comparative national trends in mortality from conditions amenable to timely, appropriate medical care and from those considered not to be amenable to such care. DESIGN Analysis of trends in direct age standardised mortality from the 1950s to 1987. SETTING Four eastern European nations (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the German Democratic Republic) and two western European (the Federal Republic of Germany and England and Wales) and two North American nations (United States and Canada). SUBJECTS The total populations of the relevant countries during the period examined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Proportional changes over time in age standardised mortality. Mortality from amenable and non-amenable causes was restricted to the age group 0-64. RESULTS A divergence in the trends for all cause mortality between eastern Europe and the western nations occurred in about 1970, when the rates in western countries steadily declined but those in eastern Europe remained fairly static. In the age group 0-64 mortality from causes considered amenable to medical care fell less quickly in eastern Europe than in the West, particularly after 1970. In the same age group, mortality from non-amenable causes rose in eastern European countries from the late 1960s compared with substantial declines in such mortality in the West. CONCLUSIONS Non-amenable causes of death seem to be the principal, but not exclusive, reason for lack of improvement in trends in all cause mortality in eastern Europe from 1970. The agenda for action in eastern Europe should give priority to a healthier lifestyle and improvement of the environment though not neglect enhancements in the quality and efficiency of direct health services.

Prediagnostic levels of C-peptide, IGF-I, IGFBP -1, -2 and -3 and risk of endometrial cancer.

Conditions related to chronic hyperinsulinemia, such as obesity, noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus and polycystic ovary syndrome, are associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer. Elevated plasma IGF-I and decreased levels of IGF-binding proteins have been shown to be associated with increased risk of several cancer types that are frequent in affluent societies. We investigated for the first time in a prospective study the association of pre-diagnostic blood concentrations of C-peptide (a marker of pancreatic insulin production), IGF-I, IGFBP-1, -2 and -3 with endometrial cancer risk. A case-control study was nested within 3 cohorts in New York (USA), Umeå (Sweden) and Milan (Italy). It included 166 women with primary invasive endometrial cancer and 315 matched controls, of which 44 case and 78 control subjects were premenopausal at recruitment. Endometrial cancer risk increased with increasing levels of C-peptide (ptrend = 0.0002), up to an odds ratio (OR) of 4.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.91-11.8] for the highest quintile. This association remained after adjustment for BMI and other confounders [OR for the top quintile = 4.40 (1.65-11.7)]. IGFBP-1 levels were inversely related to endometrial cancer [ptrend = 0.002; OR in the upper quintile = 0.30 (0.15-0.62)], but the association was weakened and lost statistical significance after adjustment for confounders [ptrend = 0.06; OR in the upper quintile = 0.49 (0.22-1.07)]. Risk was unrelated to levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3. Chronic hyperinsulinemia, as reflected by increased circulating C-peptide, is associated with increased endometrial cancer risk. Decrease in the prevalence of chronic hyperinsulinemia, through changes in lifestyle or medication, is expected to prevent endometrial cancer.

Vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality in Adventist Health Study 2.

IMPORTANCE Some evidence suggests vegetarian dietary patterns may be associated with reduced mortality, but the relationship is not well established. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between vegetarian dietary patterns and mortality. DESIGN Prospective cohort study; mortality analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression, controlling for important demographic and lifestyle confounders. SETTING Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2), a large North American cohort. PARTICIPANTS A total of 96,469 Seventh-day Adventist men and women recruited between 2002 and 2007, from which an analytic sample of 73,308 participants remained after exclusions. EXPOSURES Diet was assessed at baseline by a quantitative food frequency questionnaire and categorized into 5 dietary patterns: nonvegetarian, semi-vegetarian, pesco-vegetarian, lacto-ovo-vegetarian, and vegan. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE The relationship between vegetarian dietary patterns and all-cause and cause-specific mortality; deaths through 2009 were identified from the National Death Index. RESULTS There were 2570 deaths among 73,308 participants during a mean follow-up time of 5.79 years. The mortality rate was 6.05 (95% CI, 5.82-6.29) deaths per 1000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality in all vegetarians combined vs nonvegetarians was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97). The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality in vegans was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.73-1.01); in lacto-ovo-vegetarians, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.00); in pesco-vegetarians, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.94); and in semi-vegetarians, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.75-1.13) compared with nonvegetarians. Significant associations with vegetarian diets were detected for cardiovascular mortality, noncardiovascular noncancer mortality, renal mortality, and endocrine mortality. Associations in men were larger and more often significant than were those in women. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Vegetarian diets are associated with lower all-cause mortality and with some reductions in cause-specific mortality. Results appeared to be more robust in males. These favorable associations should be considered carefully by those offering dietary guidance.

Susceptibility to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND Although we know that exacerbations are key events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), our understanding of their frequency, determinants, and effects is incomplete. In a large observational cohort, we tested the hypothesis that there is a frequent-exacerbation phenotype of COPD that is independent of disease severity. METHODS We analyzed the frequency and associations of exacerbation in 2138 patients enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. Exacerbations were defined as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids (or both) or that led to hospitalization (severe exacerbations). Exacerbation frequency was observed over a period of 3 years. RESULTS Exacerbations became more frequent (and more severe) as the severity of COPD increased; exacerbation rates in the first year of follow-up were 0.85 per person for patients with stage 2 COPD (with stage defined in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages), 1.34 for patients with stage 3, and 2.00 for patients with stage 4. Overall, 22% of patients with stage 2 disease, 33% with stage 3, and 47% with stage 4 had frequent exacerbations (two or more in the first year of follow-up). The single best predictor of exacerbations, across all GOLD stages, was a history of exacerbations. The frequent-exacerbation phenotype appeared to be relatively stable over a period of 3 years and could be predicted on the basis of the patient's recall of previous treated events. In addition to its association with more severe disease and prior exacerbations, the phenotype was independently associated with a history of gastroesophageal reflux or heartburn, poorer quality of life, and elevated white-cell count. CONCLUSIONS Although exacerbations become more frequent and more severe as COPD progresses, the rate at which they occur appears to reflect an independent susceptibility phenotype. This has implications for the targeting of exacerbation-prevention strategies across the spectrum of disease severity. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00292552.)