The one-child policy has been successful in lowering population growth.

Strategies for optimizing maternal nutrition to promote infant development

BACKGROUND The growing appreciation of the multi-faceted importance of optimal maternal nutrition to the health and development of the infant and young child is tempered by incompletely resolved strategies for combatting challenges. OBJECTIVE To review the importance of maternal nutrition and strategies being employed to optimize outcomes. METHODS Selected data from recent literature with special focus on rationale for and currently published results of maternal nutrition supplements, including lipid based nutrition supplements. RESULTS 1) An impelling rationale for improving the maternal and in utero environment of low resource populations has emerged to achieve improved fetal and post-natal growth and development. 2) Based partly on population increases in adult height over one-two generations, much can be achieved by reducing poverty. 3) Maternal, newborn and infant characteristics associated with low resource environments include evidence of undernutrition, manifested by underweight and impaired linear growth. 4) Apart from broad public health and educational initiatives, to date, most specific efforts to improve fetal growth and development have included maternal nutrition interventions during gestation. 5) The relatively limited but real benefits of both iron/folic acid (IFA) and multiple micronutrient (MMN) maternal supplements during gestation have now been reasonably defined. 6) Recent investigations of a maternal lipid-based primarily micronutrient supplement (LNS) have not demonstrated a consistent benefit beyond MMN alone. 7) However, effects of both MMN and LNS appear to be enhanced by commencing early in gestation. CONCLUSIONS Poor maternal nutritional status is one of a very few specific factors in the human that not only contributes to impaired fetal and early post-natal growth but for which maternal interventions have demonstrated improved in utero development, documented primarily by both improvements in low birth weights and by partial corrections of impaired birth length. A clearer definition of the benefits achievable by interventions specifically focused on correcting maternal nutrition deficits should not be limited to improvements in the quality of maternal nutrition supplements, but on the cumulative quantity and timing of interventions (also recognizing the heterogeneity between populations). Finally, in an ideal world these steps are only a prelude to improvements in the total environment in which optimal nutrition and other health determinants can be achieved.

Ecology, economics and political will: the vicissitudes of malaria strategies in Asia.

The documented history of malaria in parts of Asia goes back more than 2,000 years, during which the disease has been a major player on the socioeconomic stage in many nation states as they waxed and waned in power and prosperity. On a much shorter time scale, the last half century has seen in microcosm a history of large fluctuations in endemicity and impact of malaria across the spectrum of rice fields and rain forests, mountains and plains that reflect the vast ecological diversity inhabited by this majority aggregation of mankind. That period has seen some of the most dramatic changes in social and economic structure, in population size, density and mobility, and in political structure in history: all have played a part in the changing face of malaria in this extensive region of the world. While the majority of global malaria cases currently reside in Africa, greater numbers inhabited Asia earlier this century before malaria programs savored significant success, and now Asia harbors a global threat in the form of the epicenter of multidrug resistant Plasmodium falciparum which is gradually encompassing the tropical world. The latter reflects directly the vicissitudes of economic change over recent decades, particularly the mobility of populations in search of commerce, trade and personal fortunes, or caught in the misfortunes of physical conflicts. The period from the 1950s to the 1990s has witnessed near "eradication" followed by resurgence of malaria in Sri Lanka, control and resurgence in India, the influence of war and postwar instability on drug resistance in Cambodia, increase in severe and cerebral malaria in Myanmar during prolonged political turmoil, the essential disappearance of the disease from all but forested border areas of Thailand where it remains for the moment intractable, the basic elimination of vivax malaria from many provinces of central China. Both positive and negative experiences have lessons to teach in the debate between eradication and control as alternative strategies. China has for years held high the goal of "basic elimination", eradication by another name, in sensible semi-defiance of WHO dictates. The Chinese experience makes it clear that, given community organization, exhaustive attention to case detection, management and focus elimination, plus the political will at all levels of society, it is possible both to eliminate malaria from large areas of an expansive nation and to implement surveillance necessary to maintain something approaching eradication status in those areas. But China has not succeeded in the international border regions of the tropical south where unfettered population movement confounds the program. Thailand, Malaysia and to an extent Vietnam have also reached essential elimination in their rice field plains by vigorous vertical programs but fall short at their forested borders. Economics is central to the history of the rise and fall of nations, and to the history of disease in the people who constitute nations. The current love affair with free market economics as the main driving force for advance of national wealth puts severe limitations on the essential involvement of communities in malaria management. The task of malaria control or elimination needs to be clearly related to the basic macroeconomic process that preoccupies governments, not cloistered away in the health sector Historically malaria has had a severe, measurable, negative impact on the productivity of nations. Economic models need rehoning with political aplomb and integrating with technical and demographic strategies. Recent decades in Chinese malaria history carry some lessons that may be relevant in this context.

Perinatal mortality in rural China: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES To explore the use of local civil registration data to assess the perinatal mortality in a typical rural county in a less developed province in China, 1999-2000. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. Pregnancies in a cohort of women followed from registration of pregnancy to outcome of infant seven days after birth. SETTING Routine family planning records in 20 rural townships in eastern China. SUBJECTS 3697 pregnancies registered by the local family planning system during 1999. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Abortions, stillbirths, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality. RESULTS Only three cases were lost to follow up. The average age of the women at pregnancy was 25.9 years. Three hundred and twelve pregnancies were aborted and 240 ended in miscarriage (total 552, 15%). The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per 1000 births, the rate of stillbirth was 24 per 1000 births, and the early neonatal mortality was 46 per 1000 live births. The early neonatal mortality was 29 in boys and 69 in girls per 1000 live births. The perinatal mortality rate increased notably with parity and was higher in townships having lower income per capita. CONCLUSIONS The family planning system at the most local level is a useful data source for studying perinatal mortality in rural China. The perinatal mortality rate in the study county was higher than previously reported for both rural and urban areas in China. The results by parity and sex of the infant raise concern over the impact of the one child policy.

Immigration cohorts and residential overcrowding in southern California

To what degree do immigrants reduce their high rates of residential overcrowding with increasing length of residence in the United States? This question is addressed through the application of a “double cohort” method that nests birth cohorts within immigration cohorts. This method enables duration of immigration effects to be separated from aging effects as cohorts pass through life course phases, when family sizes may be growing or shrinking. The analysis finds that cohort trends differ sharply from the cross-sectional pattern observed at a single point in time. Cohorts’ growth in income is found to contribute substantially to the decline in overcrowding over time. Cohort trends among Hispanic immigrants, however, diverge from those among others, indicating much less decrease in overcrowding and even increases over certain age spans.

Evidence-based interventions for improvement of maternal and child nutrition: what can be done and at what cost?

Maternal undernutrition contributes to 800,000 neonatal deaths annually through small for gestational age births; stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies are estimated to underlie nearly 3·1 million child deaths annually. Progress has been made with many interventions implemented at scale and the evidence for effectiveness of nutrition interventions and delivery strategies has grown since The Lancet Series on Maternal and Child Undernutrition in 2008. We did a comprehensive update of interventions to address undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies in women and children and used standard methods to assess emerging new evidence for delivery platforms. We modelled the effect on lives saved and cost of these interventions in the 34 countries that have 90% of the world's children with stunted growth. We also examined the effect of various delivery platforms and delivery options using community health workers to engage poor populations and promote behaviour change, access and uptake of interventions. Our analysis suggests the current total of deaths in children younger than 5 years can be reduced by 15% if populations can access ten evidence-based nutrition interventions at 90% coverage. Additionally, access to and uptake of iodised salt can alleviate iodine deficiency and improve health outcomes. Accelerated gains are possible and about a fifth of the existing burden of stunting can be averted using these approaches, if access is improved in this way. The estimated total additional annual cost involved for scaling up access to these ten direct nutrition interventions in the 34 focus countries is Int$9·6 billion per year. Continued investments in nutrition-specific interventions to avert maternal and child undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies through community engagement and delivery strategies that can reach poor segments of the population at greatest risk can make a great difference. If this improved access is linked to nutrition-sensitive approaches--ie, women's empowerment, agriculture, food systems, education, employment, social protection, and safety nets--they can greatly accelerate progress in countries with the highest burden of maternal and child undernutrition and mortality.

Perspective: repression of competition and the evolution of cooperation.

Repression of competition within groups joins kin selection as the second major force in the history of life shaping the evolution of cooperation. When opportunities for competition against neighbors are limited within groups, individuals can increase their own success only by enhancing the efficiency and productivity of their group. Thus, characters that repress competition within groups promote cooperation and enhance group success. Leigh first expressed this idea in the context of fair meiosis, in which each chromosome has an equal chance of transmission via gametes. Randomized success means that each part of the genome can increase its own success only by enhancing the total number of progeny and thus increasing the success of the group. Alexander used this insight about repression of competition in fair meiosis to develop his theories for the evolution of human sociality. Alexander argued that human social structures spread when they repress competition within groups and promote successful group-against-group competition. Buss introduced a new example with his suggestion that metazoan success depended on repression of competition between cellular lineages. Maynard Smith synthesized different lines of thought on repression of competition. In this paper, I develop simple mathematical models to illustrate the main processes by which repression of competition evolves. With the concepts made clear, I then explain the history of the idea. I finish by summarizing many new developments in this subject and the most promising lines for future study.

Markets, voucher subsidies and free nets combine to achieve high bed net coverage in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND Tanzania has a well-developed network of commercial ITN retailers. In 2004, the government introduced a voucher subsidy for pregnant women and, in mid 2005, helped distribute free nets to under-fives in small number of districts, including Rufiji on the southern coast, during a child health campaign. Contributions of these multiple insecticide-treated net delivery strategies existing at the same time and place to coverage in a poor rural community were assessed. METHODS Cross-sectional household survey in 6,331 members of randomly selected 1,752 households of 31 rural villages of Demographic Surveillance System in Rufiji district, Southern Tanzania was conducted in 2006. A questionnaire was administered to every consenting respondent about net use, treatment status and delivery mechanism. FINDINGS Net use was 62.7% overall, 87.2% amongst infants (0 to 1 year), 81.8% amongst young children (>1 to 5 years), 54.5% amongst older children (6 to 15 years) and 59.6% amongst adults (>15 years). 30.2% of all nets had been treated six months prior to interview. The biggest source of nets used by infants was purchase from the private sector with a voucher subsidy (41.8%). Half of nets used by young children (50.0%) and over a third of those used by older children (37.2%) were obtained free of charge through the vaccination campaign. The largest source of nets amongst the population overall was commercial purchase (45.1% use) and was the primary means for protecting adults (60.2% use). All delivery mechanisms, especially sale of nets at full market price, under-served the poorest but no difference in equity was observed between voucher-subsidized and freely distributed nets. CONCLUSION All three delivery strategies enabled a poor rural community to achieve net coverage high enough to yield both personal and community level protection for the entire population. Each of them reached their relevant target group and free nets only temporarily suppressed the net market, illustrating that in this setting that these are complementary rather than mutually exclusive approaches.

Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital

In this paper we review the associations between maternal and child undernutrition with human capital and risk of adult diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We analysed data from five long-standing prospective cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa and noted that indices of maternal and child undernutrition (maternal height, birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction, and weight, height, and body-mass index at 2 years according to the new WHO growth standards) were related to adult outcomes (height, schooling, income or assets, offspring birthweight, body-mass index, glucose concentrations, blood pressure). We undertook systematic reviews of studies from low-income and middle-income countries for these outcomes and for indicators related to blood lipids, cardiovascular disease, lung and immune function, cancers, osteoporosis, and mental illness. Undernutrition was strongly associated, both in the review of published work and in new analyses, with shorter adult height, less schooling, reduced economic productivity, and--for women--lower offspring birthweight. Associations with adult disease indicators were not so clear-cut. Increased size at birth and in childhood were positively associated with adult body-mass index and to a lesser extent with blood pressure values, but not with blood glucose concentrations. In our new analyses and in published work, lower birthweight and undernutrition in childhood were risk factors for high glucose concentrations, blood pressure, and harmful lipid profiles once adult body-mass index and height were adjusted for, suggesting that rapid postnatal weight gain--especially after infancy--is linked to these conditions. The review of published works indicates that there is insufficient information about long-term changes in immune function, blood lipids, or osteoporosis indicators. Birthweight is positively associated with lung function and with the incidence of some cancers, and undernutrition could be associated with mental illness. We noted that height-for-age at 2 years was the best predictor of human capital and that undernutrition is associated with lower human capital. We conclude that damage suffered in early life leads to permanent impairment, and might also affect future generations. Its prevention will probably bring about important health, educational, and economic benefits. Chronic diseases are especially common in undernourished children who experience rapid weight gain after infancy.

“Rapid-Impact Interventions”: How a Policy of Integrated Control for Africa's Neglected Tropical Diseases Could Benefit the Poor

Over the past two decades there have been significant achievements in the control of a handful of important human tropical infections [1]. These achievements include the substantive reductions in the prevalence and incidence of the so-called neglected diseases such as lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, guinea worm, leprosy, and trachoma (Box 1) [2]. Each of these neglected diseases is a poverty-promoting and often stigmatizing condition occurring primarily in rural areas of low-income countries (Box 2) [3]. They are ancient afflictions, described in the Bible and other ancient texts, which have burdened humanity for millennia [3]. But now, as a result of aggressive regional vertical interventions, there is a possibility that some neglected tropical infections could be eventually controlled to the point of elimination in some areas of endemicity [2–8]. In the case of guinea worm infection, disease eradication might also soon be possible [9]. Box 2. Common Features of the Neglected Tropical Diseases          Ancient afflictions that have burdened humanity for centuries      Poverty-promoting conditions      Associated with stigma      Rural areas of low-income countries and fragile states      No commercial markets for products that target these diseases      Interventions, when applied, have a history of success

Malaria eradication back on the table.

After a lapse of almost 40 years, malaria eradication is back on the global health agenda. Inspired by the Gates Malaria Forum in October 2007,1,2 key organizations are starting to debate the pros and cons of redefining eradication as an explicit goal of malaria control efforts. Attempts to eliminate malaria in southern Africa3 and Pacific Island states,4 and WHO’s Global Malaria Programme agenda and field manual for malaria elimination,5,6 foreshadow this movement towards another global attempt at eradication. When marking 60 years of WHO’s commitment to fighting malaria, we must ask what has been achieved, but also what can we learn from the past. We now know so much more about the biology of parasite-host responses, the determinants of endemicity and transmission dynamics, the social, economic and cultural implications of malaria at household, community and national levels, and the demands made upon health systems in endemic countries. We do not yet know how to synthesize and integrate this knowledge to achieve elimination in different settings. Regional malaria elimination campaigns were first conducted in the late 1940s, preparing the ground for the Global Malaria Eradication Program in 1955. This campaign succeeded in eliminating malaria from Europe, North America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia and South-Central America.7 But no major success occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 80% of today’s burden of malaria.8 When the aspiration of global eradication was abandoned in 1969, the main reasons for failure were technical challenges of executing the strategy especially in Africa. The post-eradication era from 1969 to 1991 focused on technical issues, and research and development for new tools, leading to advances in drug and vaccine development, vector control and insecticide-treated nets. These decades also brought a better understanding of the social, economic and cultural dimensions of malaria. There was little global support provided specifically for malaria control in the newly independent states of Africa that were struggling to establish broad-based health systems and primary health care. By 1992, the combination of a worsening malaria situation and promising technical developments led to renewed global focus on malaria control. The Roll Back Malaria initiative, launched by WHO in 1998, led to the Abuja Declaration in 2000, which defined progressive intervention coverage targets for control designed to eliminate malaria as a public health problem, while emphasizing that this could only be achieved through vastly strengthened local health systems.9 Increased resources through the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the World Bank’s Booster Program, the US President’s Malaria Initiative and many others has meant that this page is finally beginning to turn as intervention coverage is rising.10    It is against this background that we hear this call for elimination/eradication. The challenges remain formidable. We all know that elimination in Africa is not possible with current tools. But efforts must focus beyond simply developing better tools, to include how existing and future tools can be strategically combined for maximum synergistic effectiveness when integrated into different health and social systems prevailing in endemic areas. Aiming at elimination and eradication further implies the need for effective surveillance strategies to monitor progress (again a challenge for health systems). This in turn requires a better understanding of malaria transmission heterogeneity in a globalized world with rapidly changing dynamics in environment, climate, migration and transnational cooperation. Maintaining long-term momentum in the face of success in regional elimination while waiting to achieve final eradication will be a major challenge. Shrinking the map by starting on the malaria margins with the “easy-to-eliminate” settings will boost morale initially but may bring marginal benefits to such areas at the expense of those where the burden of malaria is highest. Any strategic plan – and here we learn again from the past – needs to be a synchronous global effort, locally adapted in all endemic areas. Although we lack sufficient knowledge, systems and tools to eradicate malaria today, we do have a window of political will and financial resources to refocus on the goal of effective control through universal coverage of appropriate interventions. The prerequisites for a successful start are: (i) a process of inclusive discourse to agree on global vision, goals and strategy; and (ii) a global plan for all endemic areas describing how, where and when we move from control towards elimination. What must distinguish the new era, especially in Africa, is a real rather than rhetorical emphasis on health systems. ■

The Changing Problem of Overcrowded Housing

Abstract Overcrowding has increased in the U.S. after decades of decline—dramatically so in some locales and for some ethnic groups. The nature of the problem and its very definition for policy purposes are also changing. We examine the special characteristics of the overcrowded, where they are located, why the incidence of crowding has resurged, and why it is confined to specific locales. Ethnicity, age, immigration, and poverty play important roles, but housing market conditions appear much less important. We also show that the planning standard used to judge overcrowding is a relative one that has varied over time, and that the social norms vary among ethnic groups. The issue of overcrowding may exemplify the current perplexities about imposing uniform standards in an evolving multiethnic society. Worst-case housing needs would be better targeted in highly impacted locales by allowing more “place diversity” in the setting of standards.

Metabolic modifiers as performance-enhancing technologies for livestock production

With the current and predicted increase in world population, growing global demand and consumption of food will result in increasing competition for land, water, and energy. In turn, this will severely affect our ability to produce food as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of food systems on the environment (Godfray et al., 2010). Globalization has boosted trade in livestock inputs and products and resulted in industry growth, and concurrently livestock production has undergone a complex process of technical and geographical change (Gerber et al., 2007). This has resulted in a challenge to livestock producers; growing demand for their produce with a dwindling supply of resources, with the only solution being a significant increase in efficiency. Also, as incomes increase in the burgeoning economies, so does the demand for high-quality animal proteins such as meat, milk, and eggs; thus the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations suggests that food requirements will increase by 70% by 2050 (Anonymous, 2009). The recent success in developed and emerging technologies suggests that the animal industries are well placed to prosper through these new challenges. To ensure these technologies—such as metabolic modifiers including somatotropin, immunization against gonadotropin-releasing factor, and orally active dietary additives like ractopamine, zilpaterol, cysteamine, chromium, betaine, and dietary neuroleptics—can be effectively utilized throughout the animal industries, further emphasis is required on their acceptance and development. As a result of these technological advancements, producers have benefited because of improved production efficiencies while meat packers have improved processing efficiencies because of increased lean meat yield. Ostensibly, the consumer has also benefited because meat is leaner and less expensive to purchase. However, there have been some concerns that the focus on increasing production efficiency and lean meat yield has been to the detriment of meat quality (Dunshea et al., 2005). It is also interesting that at a time of apparently greater need for these technologies, there are external influences such as market differentiation and trade barriers as well as consumer resistance that challenge the use of technologies. A tenet of this article is that if we are to meet the increased global demand for animal protein, then we must continue to develop and adopt technologies to improve livestock efficiency, but we must be cognizant of the potential barriers affecting acceptance.

THE REGULATION OF NUMBERS OF TROPICAL OCEANIC BIRDS

SUMMARY    The ways in which the numbers of tropical sea-birds might be limited are considered; it is argued that food is the only factor likely to be generally effective in limiting numbers, but it seems improbable that food shortage could exert a density-dependent control of the mortality of the birds outside the breeding season. Wynne-Edwards' hypothesis that colonies of sea-birds are able to keep their own numbers below the level at which food shortage would become acute, primarily by exerting control on the output of young, is rejected as unproven and improbable. It is suggested that colonies of tropical oceanic birds deplete the food in the waters round them, and that as the populations increase competition for food becomes more intense, and relatively fewer adults succeed in raising chicks. This would provide a density-dependent control of the output of young and could regulate the numbers of the birds. The peculiarities of long-lived sea-birds (e.g. clutches of one, long fledging periods, deferred maturity) which Wynne-Edwards suggests are adaptations evolved in order to lower the reproductive rate until it balances the mortality, apparently could not be evolved as such; they are more probably adaptations enabling the birds sometimes to raise single chicks in spite of competition for food that makes it impossible to raise more than one. It is considered that variation in the age of first breeding provides an important supplement to variation in reproductive success in regulating the numbers of long-lived tropical sea-birds. The possible applications of this hypothesis to sea-birds breeding in higher latitudes are briefly considered, as are its implications in relation to conservation and exploitation of populations of sea-birds.

Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities

BACKGROUND Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990-2009 with forecasts into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life-compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990-and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa's NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9). CONCLUSIONS Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved.

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model.

BACKGROUND Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination. METHODS We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual. FINDINGS The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US$1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease. INTERPRETATION Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.

Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: a time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia.

BACKGROUND Cali, Colombia, has a high incidence of interpersonal violence deaths. Various alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol-related problems. The objective of this study was to determine whether different alcohol control policies were associated with changes in the incidence rate of homicides. METHODS Ecologic study conducted during 2004-08 using a time-series design. Policies were implemented with variations in hours of restriction of sales and consumption of alcohol. Most restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 446 non-consecutive days. Moderately restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 1277 non-consecutive days. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 104 non-consecutive days. In conditional autoregressive negative binomial regressions, rates of homicides and unintentional injury deaths (excluding traffic events) were compared between different periods of days when different policies were in effect. RESULTS There was an increased risk of homicides in periods when the moderately restrictive policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 90% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.26, P = 0.012], and there was an even higher risk of homicides in periods when the lax policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR 1.42, 90% CI 1.26-1.61, P < 0.001). Less restrictive policies were not associated with increased risk of unintentional injury deaths. CONCLUSION Extended hours of sales and consumption of alcohol were associated with increased risk of homicides. Strong restrictions on alcohol availability could reduce the incidence of interpersonal violence events in communities where homicides are high.

Update on technical issues concerning complementary feeding of young children in developing countries and implications for intervention programs.

This paper provides an update to the 1998 WHO/UNICEF report on complementary feeding. New research findings are generally consistent with the guidelines in that report, but the adoption of new energy and micronutrient requirements for infants and young children will result in lower recommendations regarding minimum meal frequency and energy density of complementary foods, and will alter the list of "problem nutrients. " Without fortification, the densities of iron, zinc, and vitamin B6 in complementary foods are often inadequate, and the intake of other nutrients may also be low in some populations. Strategies for obtaining the needed amounts of problem nutrients, as well as optimizing breastmilk intake when other foods are added to the diet, are discussed. The impact of complementary feeding interventions on child growth has been variable, which calls attention to the need for more comprehensive programs. A six-step approach to planning, implementing, and evaluating such programs is recommended.

Accelerating Policy Decisions to Adopt Haemophilus influenzae Type b Vaccine: A Global, Multivariable Analysis

BACKGROUND Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). METHODS AND FINDINGS Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

Reforming the health sector in developing countries: the central role of policy analysis.

Policy analysis is an established discipline in the industrialized world, yet its application to developing countries has been limited. The health sector in particular appears to have been neglected. This is surprising because there is a well recognized crisis in health systems, and prescriptions abound of what health policy reforms countries should introduce. However, little attention has been paid to how countries should carry out reforms, much less who is likely to favour or resist such policies. This paper argues that much health policy wrongly focuses attention on the content of reform, and neglects the actors involved in policy reform (at the international, national sub-national levels), the processes contingent on developing and implementing change and the context within which policy is developed. Focus on policy content diverts attention from understanding the processes which explain why desired policy outcomes fail to emerge. The paper is organized in 4 sections. The first sets the scene, demonstrating how the shift from consensus to conflict in health policy established the need for a greater emphasis on policy analysis. The second section explores what is meant by policy analysis. The third investigates what other disciplines have written that help to develop a framework of analysis. And the final section suggests how policy analysis can be used not only to analyze the policy process, but also to plan.

Chronic stress and psychological well-being: evidence from Thailand on household crowding.

This paper examines the effect of one form of chronic stress--household crowding--on psychological well-being, as measured by multiple inverse indicators of psychological well-being. We rely on data from a large (n = 2017) random sample of households in Bangkok, Thailand, a context that has a higher level and broader range of crowding than typically found in the United States. Objective household crowding is found to be detrimental to psychological well-being, controlling for a number of background characteristics. The effect of objective crowding is mediated by subjective crowding, which has strong, consistent and direct detrimental effects on well-being. There is no evidence of a gender effect. Extended family households are not uncommon in Bangkok, but the effects of objective and subjective crowding are similar in both two- and three-generation households, as well as in one- and multiple-couple households. The argument that subjective crowding is an effect, rather than a cause, of psychological well-being is examined and rejected. The findings suggest that crowding, as a chronic source of stress, constitutes a major threat to psychological well-being. Although the empirical analyses are based on data from one city, we frame the issue of household crowding in a historical and theoretical context in order to suggest in which cultural settings household crowding is most likely to have detrimental effects on psychological well-being.

Attempted suicide in Europe: rates, trends and sociodemographic characteristics of suicide attempters during the period 1989-1992. Results of the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Parasuicide.

The World Health Organization/EURO Multicentre Project on Parasuicide is part of the action to implement target 12 of the WHO programme, "Health for All by the Year 2000', for the European region. Sixteen centres in 13 European countries are participating in the monitoring aspect of the project, in which trends in the epidemiology of suicide attempts are assessed. The highest average male age-standardized rate of suicide attempts was found for Helsinki, Finland (314/100,000), and the lowest rate (45/100,000) was for Guipuzcoa, Spain, representing a sevenfold difference. The highest average female age-standardized rate was found for Cergy-Pontoise, France (462/100,000), and the lowest (69/100,000) again for Guipuzcoa, Spain. With only one exception (Helsinki), the person-based suicide attempt rates were higher among women than among men. In the majority of centres, the highest person-based rates were found in the younger age groups. The rates among people aged 55 years or over were generally the lowest. For the majority of the centres, the rates for individuals aged 15 years or over decreased between 1989 and 1992. The methods used were primarily "soft' (poisoning) or cutting. More than 50% of the suicide attempters made more than one attempt, and nearly 20% of the second attempts were made within 12 months after the first attempt. Compared with the general population, suicide attempters more often belong to the social categories associated with social destabilization and poverty.

Costs and financial feasibility of malaria elimination

The marginal costs and benefits of converting malaria programmes from a control to an elimination goal are central to strategic decisions, but empirical evidence is scarce. We present a conceptual framework to assess the economics of elimination and analyse a central component of that framework-potential short-term to medium-term financial savings. After a review that showed a dearth of existing evidence, the net present value of elimination in five sites was calculated and compared with effective control. The probability that elimination would be cost-saving over 50 years ranged from 0% to 42%, with only one site achieving cost-savings in the base case. These findings show that financial savings should not be a primary rationale for elimination, but that elimination might still be a worthy investment if total benefits are sufficient to outweigh marginal costs. Robust research into these elimination benefits is urgently needed.

Research Priorities in Sudden Unexpected Infant Death: An International Consensus.

Despite the success of safe sleep campaigns and the progress in understanding risk factors, the rate of reduction in the cases of sudden infant death syndrome has now slowed and it remains a leading cause of postneonatal mortality in many developed countries. Strategic action is needed to tackle this problem and it is now vital to identify how the sudden infant death research community may best target its efforts. The Global Action and Prioritization of Sudden Infant Death Project was an international consensus process that aimed to define and direct future research by investigating the priorities of expert and lay members of the sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) community across countries. The aim was to identify which areas of research should be prioritized to reduce the number of SUID deaths globally. Scientific researchers, clinicians, counselors, educators, and SUID parents from 25 countries took part across 2 online surveys to identify potential research priorities. Workshops subsequently took place in the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia to reach consensus and 10 priority areas for research were established. Three main themes among the priorities emerged: (1) a better understanding of mechanisms underlying SUID, (2) ensuring best practice in data collection, management and sharing, and (3) a better understanding of target populations and more effective communication of risk. SUID is a global problem and this project provides the international SUID community with a list of shared research priorities to more effectively work toward explaining and reducing the number of sudden infant deaths.

Paediatric HIV infection.

By the year 2000 there will be six million pregnant women and five to ten million children infected with HIV-1. Intervention strategies have been planned and in some instances already started. A timely and cost-effective strategy needs to take into account that most HIV-1 infected individuals reside in developing countries. Further studies are needed on immunological and virological factors affecting HIV-1 transmission from mother to child, on differential disease progression in affected children, and on transient infection.

International standards for fetal growth based on serial ultrasound measurements: the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.

BACKGROUND In 2006, WHO produced international growth standards for infants and children up to age 5 years on the basis of recommendations from a WHO expert committee. Using the same methods and conceptual approach, the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study (FGLS), part of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project, aimed to develop international growth and size standards for fetuses. METHODS The multicentre, population-based FGLS assessed fetal growth in geographically defined urban populations in eight countries, in which most of the health and nutritional needs of mothers were met and adequate antenatal care was provided. We used ultrasound to take fetal anthropometric measurements prospectively from 14 weeks and 0 days of gestation until birth in a cohort of women with adequate health and nutritional status who were at low risk of intrauterine growth restriction. All women had a reliable estimate of gestational age confirmed by ultrasound measurement of fetal crown-rump length in the first trimester. The five primary ultrasound measures of fetal growth--head circumference, biparietal diameter, occipitofrontal diameter, abdominal circumference, and femur length--were obtained every 5 weeks (within 1 week either side) from 14 weeks to 42 weeks of gestation. The best fitting curves for the five measures were selected using second-degree fractional polynomials and further modelled in a multilevel framework to account for the longitudinal design of the study. FINDINGS We screened 13,108 women commencing antenatal care at less than 14 weeks and 0 days of gestation, of whom 4607 (35%) were eligible. 4321 (94%) eligible women had pregnancies without major complications and delivered live singletons without congenital malformations (the analysis population). We documented very low maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity, confirming that the participants were at low risk of adverse outcomes. For each of the five fetal growth measures, the mean differences between the observed and smoothed centiles for the 3rd, 50th, and 97th centiles, respectively, were small: 2·25 mm (SD 3·0), 0·02 mm (3·0), and -2·69 mm (3·2) for head circumference; 0·83 mm (0·9), -0·05 mm (0·8), and -0·84 mm (1·0) for biparietal diameter; 0·63 mm (1·2), 0·04 mm (1·1), and -1·05 mm (1·3) for occipitofrontal diameter; 2·99 mm (3·1), 0·25 mm (3·2), and -4·22 mm (3·7) for abdominal circumference; and 0·62 mm (0·8), 0·03 mm (0·8), and -0·65 mm (0·8) for femur length. We calculated the 3rd, 5th 10th, 50th, 90th, 95th and 97th centile curves according to gestational age for these ultrasound measures, representing the international standards for fetal growth. INTERPRETATION We recommend these international fetal growth standards for the clinical interpretation of routinely taken ultrasound measurements and for comparisons across populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination. " It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication. " Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination. " Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment.

Estimates of global prevalence of childhood underweight in 1990 and 2015.

CONTEXT One key target of the United Nations Millennium Development goals is to reduce the prevalence of underweight among children younger than 5 years by half between 1990 and 2015. OBJECTIVE To estimate trends in childhood underweight by geographic regions of the world. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Time series study of prevalence of underweight, defined as weight 2 SDs below the mean weight for age of the National Center for Health Statistics and World Health Organization (WHO) reference population. National prevalence rates derived from the WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, which includes data on approximately 31 million children younger than 5 years who participated in 419 national nutritional surveys in 139 countries from 1965 through 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to estimate prevalence rates and numbers of underweight children by region in 1990 and 2015 and to calculate the changes (ie, increase or decrease) to these values between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS Worldwide, underweight prevalence was projected to decline from 26.5% in 1990 to 17.6% in 2015, a change of -34% (95% confidence interval [CI], -43% to -23%). In developed countries, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, a change of -41% (95% CI, -92% to 343%). In developing regions, the prevalence was forecasted to decline from 30.2% to 19.3%, a change of -36% (95% CI, -45% to -26%). In Africa, the prevalence of underweight was forecasted to increase from 24.0% to 26.8%, a change of 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). In Asia, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 35.1% to 18.5%, a change of -47% (95% CI, -58% to -34%). Worldwide, the number of underweight children was projected to decline from 163.8 million in 1990 to 113.4 million in 2015, a change of -31% (95% CI, -40% to -20%). Numbers are projected to decrease in all subregions except the subregions of sub-Saharan, Eastern, Middle, and Western Africa, which are expected to experience substantial increases in the number of underweight children. CONCLUSIONS An overall improvement in the global situation is anticipated; however, neither the world as a whole, nor the developing regions, are expected to achieve the Millennium Development goals. This is largely due to the deteriorating situation in Africa where all subregions, except Northern Africa, are expected to fail to meet the goal.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination and screening in Spain.

BACKGROUND In Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11-14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. METHODS A multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1-5 years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS After the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350€ per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060€/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250€/YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. CONCLUSIONS In Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4-5 years represents the best balance between costs and benefits.

Effect of screening on cervical cancer mortality in England and Wales: analysis of trends with an age period cohort model.

The number of women dying from cervical cancer in 1997 was 7% lower than in 1996 and has fallen by over 25% since 1992.1 Such rapid change must be at least partly due to cervical screening, although strong cohort effects have caused large fluctuations in cervical mortality in the past.2 We modelled mortality data, taking into account the effects of age and year of birth and looking for trends in time within four age groups to estimate the beneficial effects of cervical screening. We obtained mortality data, in 5 year age bands, from death registrations in England and Wales and calculated rates using mid-year population estimates. Mortality since 1993 was adjusted upwards by 4% because of changes in classification of cause of death.3  We modelled the data assuming that the age specific mortality is the product of a smoothly varying age effect, birth cohort effect, and age dependent …

Home birth and barriers to referring women with obstetric complications to hospitals: a mixed-methods study in Zahedan, southeastern Iran

BACKGROUND One factor that contributes to high maternal mortality in developing countries is the delayed use of Emergency Obstetric-Care (EmOC) facilities. The objective of this study was to determine the factors that hinder midwives and parturient women from using hospitals when complications occur during home birth in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iran, where 23% of all deliveries take place in non- hospital settings. METHODS In the study and data management, a mixed-methods approach was used. In the quantitative phase, we compared the existing health-sector data with World Health Organization (WHO) standards for the availability and use of EmOC services. The qualitative phase included collection and analysis of interviews with midwives and traditional birth attendants and twenty-one in-depth interviews with mothers. The data collected in this phase were managed according to the principles of qualitative data analysis. RESULTS The findings demonstrate that three distinct factors lead to indecisiveness and delay in the use of EmOC by the midwives and mothers studied. Socio-cultural and familial reasons compel some women to choose to give birth at home and to hesitate seeking professional emergency care for delivery complications. Apprehension about being insulted by physicians, the necessity of protecting their professional integrity in front of patients and an inability to persuade their patients lead to an over-insistence by midwives on completing deliveries at the mothers' homes and a reluctance to refer their patients to hospitals. The low quality and expense of EmOC and the mothers' lack of health insurance also contribute to delays in referral. CONCLUSIONS Women who choose to give birth at home accept the risk that complications may arise. Training midwives and persuading mothers and significant others who make decisions about the value of referring women to hospitals at the onset of life-threatening complications are central factors to increasing the use of available hospitals. The hospitals must be safe, comfortable and attractive environments for parturition and should give appropriate consideration to the ethical and cultural concerns of the women. Appropriate management of financial and insurance-related issues can help midwives and mothers make a rational decision when complications arise.

The importance of engaging policy-makers at the outset to guide research on and introduction of vaccines: the use of policy-maker surveys.

Face-to-face surveys of policy-makers and other influential leaders are a useful tool to identify, at an early stage, (a) major issues regarding the introduction of a new vaccine, (b) persons and groups in a country who play a major decision-making or influential role in the introduction of vaccines, (c) potential obstacles to the introduction of vaccines, and (d) data-needs of policy-makers to overcome these obstacles. By surveying the opinions and beliefs of those who will make or influence decisions on whether to introduce a new vaccine, these studies can help ensure that research activities respond to the needs of policy-makers in countries endemic for the target diseases. These surveys can also inform vaccine-introduction strategies by identifying financially and politically feasible means of distributing, targeting, and financing the vaccines. This paper describes the methodology used in conducting such surveys and discusses methodological issues. It also presents lessons learnt from two policy-maker surveys carried out in several Asian countries in regard to new-generation vaccines against cholera, typhoid fever, and shigellosis; and future vaccines against dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever.

Preventing obesity in children and adolescents.

In this review, we address the natural history of obesity in children, the most promising family- and school-based approaches to the prevention of obesity, and the barriers and opportunities associated with secondary prevention. In childhood, the most important periods of risk appear to be the periods of adiposity rebound and adolescence. Caution regarding the period of adiposity rebound is still warranted, because it is not yet clear that early rebound is attributable to changes in body fat. Families and schools represent the most important foci for preventive efforts in children and adolescents. One productive approach is to proceed from an examination of factors that affect energy balance to the identification of more proximal influences on those factors. This approach may help to narrow the strategies necessary to prevent or treat childhood obesity. For example, television viewing affects both energy intake and energy expenditure, and therefore represents a logical target for interventions. Anticipatory guidance by pediatricians may offer an effective mechanism by which to change parental attitudes and practices regarding television viewing. A similar process is used to emphasize the potential influence of school-based interventions directed at changes in food choices and sedentary behavior.

Thalassemia and malaria: new insights into an old problem.

The hemoglobinopathies are probably the world's most common genetic diseases: The World Health Organization has estimated that at least 5% of the population are carriers for one or other of the most serious forms, the alpha- and beta-thalassemias and the structural variant hemoglobins S, C, and E, which are found at polymorphic frequencies in many countries. All these hemoglobinopathies are believed to provide protection against malaria, and it is thought that, in malarial regions of the world, natural selection has been responsible for elevating and maintaining their gene frequencies, an idea first proposed 50 years ago by J.B.S. Haldane. Epidemiological studies undertaken in the 1950s on hemoglobin S in Africa provided support for the "malaria hypothesis," but until recently it has proved extremely difficult to verify it for the thalassemias. The application of molecular methods has, however, provided new opportunities to address this old question. Population and molecular genetic analysis of thalassemia variants, and microepidemiological studies of the relationship between alpha-thalassemia and malaria in the southwest Pacific, have provided unequivocal evidence for protection. Surprisingly, some of this protection appears to derive from enhanced susceptibility in very young thalassemic children to both Plasmodium falciparum and, especially, P. vivax, and this early exposure appears to provide the basis for better protection in later life.

Genetic control of mosquitoes.

Genetics can potentially provide new, species-specific, environmentally friendly methods for mosquito control. Genetic control strategies aim either to suppress target populations or to introduce a harm-reducing novel trait. Different approaches differ considerably in their properties, especially between self-limiting strategies, where the modification has limited persistence, and self-sustaining strategies, which are intended to persist indefinitely in the target population and may invade other populations. Several methods with different molecular biology are under development and the first field trials have been completed successfully.

Thresholds for the cost–effectiveness of interventions: alternative approaches

Many countries use the cost-effectiveness thresholds recommended by the World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective project (WHO-CHOICE) when evaluating health interventions. This project sets the threshold for cost-effectiveness as the cost of the intervention per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted less than three times the country's annual gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Highly cost-effective interventions are defined as meeting a threshold per DALY averted of once the annual GDP per capita. We argue that reliance on these thresholds reduces the value of cost-effectiveness analyses and makes such analyses too blunt to be useful for most decision-making in the field of public health. Use of these thresholds has little theoretical justification, skirts the difficult but necessary ranking of the relative values of locally-applicable interventions and omits any consideration of what is truly affordable. The WHO-CHOICE thresholds set such a low bar for cost-effectiveness that very few interventions with evidence of efficacy can be ruled out. The thresholds have little value in assessing the trade-offs that decision-makers must confront. We present alternative approaches for applying cost-effectiveness criteria to choices in the allocation of health-care resources.

Levels of selection in evolution

Ever since the groundbreaking work of George Williams, W. D. Hamilton, and Richard Dawkins, evolutionary biologists have recognized that natural selection generally does not operate for the good of the group, but rather for the good of lower-level units such as the individual, the cell, even the gene. One of the fundamental problems of biology is: what keeps competition between these various levels of natural selection from destroying the common interests to be gained from cooperation? In this volume twelve prominent scientists explore this question, presenting a comprehensive survey of the current theoretical and empirical research in evolutionary biology. Recent studies show that at many levels of biological organization, mechanisms have evolved to prevent potential conflict in natural selection. Editor Laurent Keller's aim in this book is to bring together leading researchers from all biological disciplines to outline these potential conflicts and discuss how they are resolved. A multi-level approach of this kind allows important insights into the evolution of life, as well as bridging the long-standing conceptual chasm between molecular and organismal biologists. The chapters here follow a rigorous theoretical framework, giving the book an overall synergy that is unique to multi-authored books. The contributors, in addition to the editor, are H. Charles J. Godfray, Edward Allen Herre, Dawn M. Kitchen, Egbert Giles Leigh, Jr., Catherine M. Lessells, Richard E. Michod, Leonard Nunney, Craig Packer, Andrew Pomiankowski, H. Kern Reeve, John Maynard Smith, and Eors Szathmary. "

Husbands' involvement in delivery care utilization in rural Bangladesh: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND A primary cause of high maternal mortality in Bangladesh is lack of access to professional delivery care. Examining the role of the family, particularly the husband, during pregnancy and childbirth is important to understanding women's access to and utilization of professional maternal health services that can prevent maternal mortality. This qualitative study examines husbands' involvement during childbirth and professional delivery care utilization in a rural sub-district of Netrokona district, Bangladesh. METHODS Using purposive sampling, ten households utilizing a skilled attendant during the birth of the youngest child were selected and matched with ten households utilizing an untrained traditional birth attendant, or dhatri. Households were selected based on a set of inclusion criteria, such as approximate household income, ethnicity, and distance to the nearest hospital. Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted in Bangla with husbands in these households in June 2010. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analyzed using NVivo 9.0. RESULTS By purposefully selecting households that differed on the type of provider utilized during delivery, common themes--high costs, poor transportation, and long distances to health facilities--were eliminated as sufficient barriers to the utilization of professional delivery care. Divergent themes, namely husbands' social support and perceived social norms, were identified as underlying factors associated with delivery care utilization. We found that husbands whose wives utilized professional delivery care provided emotional, instrumental and informational support to their wives during delivery and believed that medical intervention was necessary. By contrast, husbands whose wives utilized an untrained dhatri at home were uninvolved during delivery and believed childbirth should take place at home according to local traditions. CONCLUSIONS This study provides novel evidence about male involvement during childbirth in rural Bangladesh. These findings have important implications for program planners, who should pursue culturally sensitive ways to involve husbands in maternal health interventions and assess the effectiveness of education strategies targeted at husbands.

Advantages of larval control for African malaria vectors: Low mobility and behavioural responsiveness of immature mosquito stages allow high effective coverage

Based on sensitivity analysis of the MacDonald-Ross model, it has long been argued that the best way to reduce malaria transmission is to target adult female mosquitoes with insecticides that can reduce the longevity and human-feeding frequency of vectors. However, these analyses have ignored a fundamental biological difference between mosquito adults and the immature stages that precede them: adults are highly mobile flying insects that can readily detect and avoid many intervention measures whereas mosquito eggs, larvae and pupae are confined within relatively small aquatic habitats and cannot readily escape control measures. We hypothesize that the control of adult but not immature mosquitoes is compromised by their ability to avoid interventions such as excito-repellant insecticides. We apply a simple model of intervention avoidance by mosquitoes and demonstrate that this can substantially reduce effective coverage, in terms of the proportion of the vector population that is covered, and overall impact on malaria transmission. We review historical evidence that larval control of African malaria vectors can be effective and conclude that the only limitations to the effective coverage of larval control are practical rather than fundamental. Larval control strategies against the vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa could be highly effective, complementary to adult control interventions, and should be prioritized for further development, evaluation and implementation as an integral part of Rolling Back Malaria.

Effect of women's nutrition before and during early pregnancy on maternal and infant outcomes: a systematic review.

Current understanding of biologic processes indicates that women's nutritional status before and during early pregnancy may play an important role in determining early developmental processes and ensuring successful pregnancy outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of the evidence for the impact of maternal nutrition before and during early pregnancy (<12 weeks gestation) on maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes and included 45 articles (nine intervention trials and 32 observational studies) that were identified through PubMed and EMBASE database searches and examining review articles. Intervention trials and observational studies show that periconceptional (<12 weeks gestation) folic acid supplementation significantly reduced the risk of neural tube defects. Observational studies suggest that preconceptional and periconceptional intake of vitamin and mineral supplements is associated with a reduced risk of delivering offspring who are low birthweight and/or small-for-gestational age (SGA) and preterm deliveries (PTD). Some studies report that indicators of maternal prepregnancy size, low stature, underweight and overweight are associated with increased risks of PTD and SGA. The available data indicate the importance of women's nutrition prior to and during the first trimester of pregnancy, but there is a need for well-designed prospective studies and controlled trials in developing country settings that examine relationships with low birthweight, SGA, PTD, stillbirth and maternal and neonatal mortality. The knowledge gaps that need to be addressed include the evaluation of periconceptional interventions such as food supplements, multivitamin-mineral supplements and/or specific micronutrients (iron, zinc, iodine, vitamin B-6 and B-12) as well as the relationship between measures of prepregnancy body size and composition and maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes.

Best response dynamics and socially stable strategies

Abstract An evolutionarily stable strategy (Maynard Smith and Price, Nature (London) 246 (1973), 15–18) is a strategy which is robust against a tiny invasion of mutants. Best response dynamics is a dynamic process in which the frequency of a strategy increases only if it is a best response to the present strategy distribution. Gilboa and Matsui ( Econometrica 59 (1991), 859–867) proposed a stability concept directly derived from this dynamic process. Modifying the above two stability concepts, this paper shows the equivalence between the static concept and the dynamic one. Their set-valued versions always exist. Examples are given to see their usefulness in analyzing forward induction and preplay communication.

Does socioeconomic status matter? A meta-analysis on parent training effectiveness for disruptive child behavior.

Disadvantaged family socioeconomic status (SES) is often assumed to diminish parent training program effectiveness. In examining effects of SES, influences of initial problem severity have been largely ignored. In the present meta-analysis, we examined (a) whether there is a differential influence of SES on parent training effectiveness at immediate posttreatment and at 1-year follow-up-controlling for levels of initial problem severity--and (b) whether SES interacts with initial problem severity in its effect on program effectiveness. Seventy-five studies on parent training program effectiveness to reduce disruptive child behavior were included. Separate analyses were conducted for immediate posttreatment and approximately 1-year follow-up assessments. Immediately posttreatment, disadvantaged samples benefited less from parent training, but only when they had low levels of initial problem severity. At follow-up, disadvantaged samples benefited less from parent training regardless of initial problem severity. Initial problem severity was a strong predictor of effect sizes both immediately posttreatment and at follow-up. Parent training programs are equally effective for disadvantaged and nondisadvantaged families immediately posttreatment, at least when initial problems are severe. Maintenance of treatment gain, however, seems harder for disadvantaged families, suggesting that more sustained family support may be needed.

The Mismatch Argument: The Construction of a Housing Orthodoxy in Australia

Australia's housing policy discourse contains many orthodoxies. While orthodoxies are never totally accepted within a discourse, they are the dominant notions within them and as such carry significant symbolic authority. One orthodoxy that has particular authority in Australia is the notion that there is a 'mismatch' in the housing system between the available stock and the size of households to the extent that there is significant underutilisation and underoccupancy of housing. The mismatch argument's power as orthodoxy is such that the idea is assumed in much housing policy discussion. Criticism of the mismatch orthodoxy can take many approaches, such as empirical, conceptual and discursive. The discursive critique focuses not on the empirical relationship between households and dwellings, but on the statements about that relationship. The resulting analysis shows how the mismatch orthodoxy arose in Australia and its effects on housing discourse. This paper examines the construction of the mismatch orthodoxy, from its first uses in the early 1970s to its entrenchment in national and state housing policy research in the early 1990s. It shows how the structures of the discourse construct the orthodoxy, despite empirical and conceptual criticisms of it. Of particular importance is the effect the orthodoxy has on people deemed to be underutilising their dwellings, and on how the orthodoxy affects policy interpretations, such as occupancy standards.

Vaccines against malaria

There is no licenced vaccine against any human parasitic disease and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, a major cause of infectious mortality, presents a great challenge to vaccine developers. This has led to the assessment of a wide variety of approaches to malaria vaccine design and development, assisted by the availability of a safe challenge model for small-scale efficacy testing of vaccine candidates. Malaria vaccine development has been at the forefront of assessing many new vaccine technologies including novel adjuvants, vectored prime-boost regimes and the concept of community vaccination to block malaria transmission. Most current vaccine candidates target a single stage of the parasite's life cycle and vaccines against the early pre-erythrocytic stages have shown most success. A protein in adjuvant vaccine, working through antibodies against sporozoites, and viral vector vaccines targeting the intracellular liver-stage parasite with cellular immunity show partial efficacy in humans, and the anti-sporozoite vaccine is currently in phase III trials. However, a more effective malaria vaccine suitable for widespread cost-effective deployment is likely to require a multi-component vaccine targeting more than one life cycle stage. The most attractive near-term approach to develop such a product is to combine existing partially effective pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidates.

Optimising Strategies for Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Elimination in Cambodia: Primaquine, Mass Drug Administration and Artemisinin Resistance

BACKGROUND Malaria elimination requires a variety of approaches individually optimized for different transmission settings. A recent field study in an area of low seasonal transmission in South West Cambodia demonstrated dramatic reductions in malaria parasite prevalence following both mass drug administration (MDA) and high treatment coverage of symptomatic patients with artemisinin-piperaquine plus primaquine. This study employed multiple combined strategies and it was unclear what contribution each made to the reductions in malaria. METHOD AND FINDINGS A mathematical model fitted to the trial results was used to assess the effects of the various components of these interventions, design optimal elimination strategies, and explore their interactions with artemisinin resistance, which has recently been discovered in Western Cambodia. The modelling indicated that most of the initial reduction of P. falciparum malaria resulted from MDA with artemisinin-piperaquine. The subsequent continued decline and near elimination resulted mainly from high coverage with artemisinin-piperaquine treatment. Both these strategies were more effective with the addition of primaquine. MDA with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) increased the proportion of artemisinin resistant infections, although much less than treatment of symptomatic cases with ACT, and this increase was slowed by adding primaquine. Artemisinin resistance reduced the effectiveness of interventions using ACT when the prevalence of resistance was very high. The main results were robust to assumptions about primaquine action, and immunity. CONCLUSIONS The key messages of these modelling results for policy makers were: high coverage with ACT treatment can produce a long-term reduction in malaria whereas the impact of MDA is generally only short-term; primaquine enhances the effect of ACT in eliminating malaria and reduces the increase in proportion of artemisinin resistant infections; parasite prevalence is a better surveillance measure for elimination programmes than numbers of symptomatic cases; combinations of interventions are most effective and sustained efforts are crucial for successful elimination.

Why people feel crowded: An examination of objective and subjective crowding

Prior studies have found only a modest relationship between objective and subjective crowding, defying logic and commonsensical notions of why people feel crowded. Using data from a representative sample of Bangkok, Thailand, where the level of household crowding is four times that in western societies, we explore several possibilities of why this is the case. Examining seven different indicators of objective crowding, our analyses suggest that the modest relationship is not an artifact of measurement. Contrary to the assumption of prior investigations, the findings indicate that the objective-subjective crowding relationship is nonlinear and that there is a ceiling effect muting the impact of increased objective crowding. The analyses further suggest that the strength of the relationship is mitigated somewhat, with part of the feeling of being crowded accounted for by household circumstances, such as the degree of control an individual has over the use of household space.

Lessons from the past: managing insecticide resistance in malaria control and eradication programmes.

The distribution of insecticide-treated bednets to help combat the burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated in the past 5 years. Additionally, many countries are also considering, or have already begun, indoor residual spraying campaigns. These are positive developments, since vector control has repeatedly proven to be an effective means of reducing malaria transmission. However, the sustainability of these insecticide-based interventions relies on the continuing susceptibility of the anopheles vectors to the limited number of available insecticides. Continual monitoring for early signs of insecticide resistance and the adoption of carefully considered resistance management strategies are therefore required. Regrettably, this essential monitoring component is frequently given a low priority in the push to meet ambitious coverage targets. We outline the key requirements for establishing an insecticide resistance surveillance system and urge all those involved in malaria vector control, either directly or as facilitators, to ensure that these measures are incorporated into control programmes. Failure to act now will inevitably lead to a future breakdown in disease control and jeopardise hopes of eradicating this major public-health problem.

Neighborhood Racial/Ethnic Concentration, Social Disadvantage, and Homicide Risk: An Ecological Analysis of 10 U.S. Cities

Homicide is one of the leading causes of death among African-American and Hispanic men. We investigated how neighborhood characteristics associated with social disadvantage explain racial/ethnic homicide gaps in 10 U.S. cities. The test hypotheses were that (1) higher concentrations of African-Americans and Hispanics would be associated with higher homicide rates and (2) the relationship between racial/ethnic concentration and homicide would be attenuated after adjusting for neighborhood characteristics (e.g., unemployment, median household income, low educational attainment, and female headship). The test hypotheses were examined using separate Poisson regression models, which adjusted for spatial autocorrelation. Homicide rates were greater in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of African-Americans and Hispanics than in other groups, and the association of neighborhood racial/ethnic concentration with homicide was reduced after adjusting for neighborhood social disadvantage variables, especially percent female head of household and percent persons with less than a high school education. We also found that the relationship between neighborhood racial/ethnic concentration and homicide was explained more by social disadvantage variables in some cities than in others. Based on our findings, policy makers may wish to consider implementation of policies that (1) expand early childhood education programs and higher education opportunities and (2) encourage economic and community development initiatives in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods.

Imported malaria in children: a national surveillance in the Netherlands and a review of European studies.

BACKGROUND Falciparum malaria or malaria tropica is one of the leading causes of childhood mortality worldwide. Malaria-related deaths occur mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 365 million clinical cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria occur each year. In Europe, imported malaria cases occur due to returning travellers or immigration mostly from African countries. Children are more at risk than adults. The objective of this study was to identify high risk groups for imported childhood malaria in Europe in order to guide development of strategies for prevention, early recognition and management. METHODS In the period May 2003-January 2005 we reviewed all cases of paediatric malaria in the Netherlands notified by the Dutch Paediatric Surveillance System (Nederland Signalerings Centrum Kindergeneeskunde, NSCK) and the literature on imported malaria in children in Europe published between 1996 and 2006. RESULTS Malaria occurred mainly in children of long-term (n = 15, 47%) and new (n = 8, 25%) immigrants and was mostly acquired in sub-Saharan Africa. The dominant species was P. falciparum. Only one quarter of children had used adequate malaria chemoprophylaxis. Complicated disease occurred in 10 (31%) of cases. We also reviewed the literature and found 6082 reported cases of imported malaria among children in Europe; among these, four died and only one was reported to develop neurological sequelae. CONCLUSION Imported malaria in children remains an important problem and is unlikely to decrease unless the reasons for inadequate prophylaxis are addressed.

Effect of supplemental zinc on the growth and serum zinc concentrations of prepubertal children: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND Multiple studies have been carried out to assess the effect of zinc supplementation on children's growth. The results of these studies are inconsistent, and the factors responsible for these varied outcomes are unknown. OBJECTIVE Meta-analyses of randomized controlled intervention trials were therefore completed to assess the effect of zinc supplementation on the physical growth and serum zinc concentrations of prepubertal children. DESIGN A total of 33 acceptable studies with appropriate data were identified by MEDLINE (National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD) searches and other methods. Weighted mean effect sizes (expressed in SD units) were calculated for changes in height, weight, weight-for-height, and serum zinc concentration by using random-effects models; factors associated with effect sizes were explored by meta-regression techniques. RESULTS Zinc supplementation produced highly significant, positive responses in height and weight increments, with effect sizes of 0.350 (95% CI: 0.189, 0.511) and 0.309 (0.178, 0.439), respectively. There was no significant effect of zinc on weight-for-height indexes [weighted mean effect size: -0.018 (-0.132, 0.097)]. Zinc supplementation caused a large increase in the children's serum zinc concentrations, with an effect size of 0.820 (0.499, 1.14). Growth responses were greater in children with low initial weight-for-age z scores and in those aged >6 mo with low initial height-for-age z scores. CONCLUSIONS Interventions to improve children's zinc nutriture should be considered in populations at risk of zinc deficiency, especially where there are elevated rates of underweight or stunting. The population mean serum zinc concentration is a useful indicator of the successful delivery and absorption of zinc supplements in children.

The effect of mass screening on incidence and mortality of squamous and adenocarcinoma of cervix uteri.

OBJECTIVE To describe the efficacy of the Finnish mass screening program for cervical squamous carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, as reflected by changes of incidence and mortality rate. METHODS Cervical cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Data were available from the year 1953, when the registry was established. The nationwide mass screening program in Finland was started in the mid-1960s. A centralized organization administers this program. Women age 30-60 years are notified for screening every 5 years. RESULTS The mean incidence of cervical carcinoma in the early 1960s was 15.4 per 10(5) woman-years. In 1991, it was only 2.7 per 10(5) woman-years. The mortality rate has decreased in the same proportion since the mass screening program. In the early 1960s, the mortality was 6.6 and in 1991 1.4 per 10(5) woman-years. However, the decrease of the incidence is seen almost exclusively in squamous cell carcinomas. The mortality caused by adenocarcinoma has decreased in screened birth cohorts, but the incidence rate has remained the same. CONCLUSIONS The Finnish mass screening program has been effective and its continuation is of utmost importance. In the future more attention should be given to glandular cell atypias in cervical smears. Thus, it might be possible to decrease the incidence of cervical adenocarcinoma.

ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND SUBURBANIZATION IN CHINA

As in other countries, suburbanization in China occurred after the cities had experienced a period of sustained industrial and population growth. This study examines suburbanization in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, and Dalian. As a result of economic restructuring, the urban core registered net population loss from 1982 to 1990 because of decentralization while the inner suburbs gained population. Among the forces driving suburbanization were marketization of urban land, the shift of industrial land to tertiary use, transportation improvement, the availability of foreign and domestic capital, housing rehabilitation in the city, and new housing construction in the suburbs. There were certain similarities but major differences between American and Chinese suburbanization. Unlike the current metropolitan landscape in the United States where suburban growth has given rise to a polycentric spatial structure, suburbanization in China is still at the incipient stage of development with suburbs dominated by centra...

Collective trauma in northern Sri Lanka: a qualitative psychosocial-ecological study

BACKGROUND Complex situations that follow war and natural disasters have a psychosocial impact on not only the individual but also on the family, community and society. Just as the mental health effects on the individual psyche can result in non pathological distress as well as a variety of psychiatric disorders; massive and widespread trauma and loss can impact on family and social processes causing changes at the family, community and societal levels. METHOD This qualitative, ecological study is a naturalistic, psychosocial ethnography in Northern Sri Lanka, while actively involved in psychosocial and community mental health programmes among the Tamil community. Participatory observation, key informant interviews and focus group discussion with community level relief and rehabilitation workers and government and non-governmental officials were used to gather data. The effects on the community of the chronic, man-made disaster, war, in Northern Sri Lanka were compared with the contexts found before the war and after the tsunami. RESULTS Fundamental changes in the functioning of the family and the community were observed. While the changes after the tsunami were not so prominent, the chronic war situation caused more fundamental social transformations. At the family level, the dynamics of single parent families, lack of trust among members, and changes in significant relationships, and child rearing practices were seen. Communities tended to be more dependent, passive, silent, without leadership, mistrustful, and suspicious. Additional adverse effects included the breakdown in traditional structures, institutions and familiar ways of life, and deterioration in social norms and ethics. A variety of community level interventions were tried. CONCLUSION Exposure to conflict, war and disaster situations impact on fundamental family and community dynamics resulting in changes at a collective level. Relief, rehabilitation and development programmes to be effective will need to address the problem of collective trauma, particularly using integrated multi-level approaches.

Lipid-based nutrient supplement increases the birth size of infants of primiparous women in Ghana.

BACKGROUND The International Lipid-Based Nutrient Supplements Project developed a small-quantity (20 g/d) lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS) for pregnant and lactating women. OBJECTIVE We evaluated the effects of prenatal LNS supplementation on fetal growth. DESIGN In a community-based, partially double-blind, individually randomized controlled trial, 1320 women ≤20 wk pregnant received 60 mg Fe/400 μg folic acid (IFA), or 1-2 Recommended Dietary Allowances of 18 micronutrients, including 20 mg Fe (MMN), or LNS with the same micronutrients as the MMN group, plus 4 minerals and macronutrients contributing 118 kcal (LNS) daily until delivery. Fetal growth was compared across groups by using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was birth length. RESULTS This analysis included 1057 women (IFA = 349, MMN = 354, LNS = 354). Groups did not differ significantly in mean birth length, length-for-age z score (LAZ), head circumference, or percentage low birth length but differed in mean birth weight (P = 0.044), weight-for-age z score (WAZ; P = 0.046), and BMI-for-age z score (BMIZ; P = 0.040), with a trend toward differences in low birth weight (P = 0.069). In pairwise comparisons, the LNS group had greater mean birth weight (+85 g; P = 0.040), WAZ (+0.19; P = 0.045), and BMIZ (+0.21; P = 0.035) and a lower risk of low birth weight (RR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.96; P = 0.032) than did the IFA group. The other group differences were not significant. The effect of intervention was modified by mother's parity, age, height, baseline hemoglobin, household food insecurity, and child sex, with parity being the most consistent modifier. Among primiparous women (IFA = 131; MMN = 110; LNS = 128), the LNS group had greater mean birth length (+0.91 cm; P = 0.001), LAZ (+0.47; P = 0.001), weight (+237 g; P < 0.001), WAZ (+0.56; P < 0.001), BMIZ (+0.52; P < 0.001), head circumference (0.50 cm; P = 0.017), and head circumference-for-age z score (+0.40; P = 0.022) than did the IFA group; similar differences were found when comparing the LNS and MMN groups among primiparous women, and no group differences were found among multiparous women. CONCLUSION Prenatal LNS supplementation can improve fetal growth among vulnerable women in Ghana, particularly primiparous women. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00970866.

Contraceptive practices of women requesting termination of pregnancy : A study from China

Abstract In order to develop a program for prevention of unwanted pregnancies, we conducted a survey of contraceptive practices and reasons for contraceptive failures of 1520 women seeking abortion at eight large hospitals in Zheng Zhou City, Henan Province, P.R. China, during the period from March 1996 to May 1996. The most frequent cause of the unplanned pregnancy was contraceptive failure (71.9%); 61.7% (938) of these current pregnancies were potentially predictable by virtue of nonuse of contraception (427) or by recognition of contraceptive failures (511). Among the contraceptive failures, the proportion of condom mishaps was the highest (29.7%), next was IUD failures (23.5%), then rhythm miscalculation (15.9%). Most of abortion seekers (77.1%) used some contraceptive methods previously. But, only 19.7% of them used a contraceptive method at the first sexual intercourse. Among 1520 abortion seekers, 57.6% had used condoms previously; 50.9% of the condom users had at least one instance of condom mishap. The rhythm method had been used by 31.7% of abortion seekers previously; 59.1% of the rhythm users had at least one instance of rhythm failure. Of the 16.8% of abortion seekers who had used pills, 58.0% of them had pill failures. Among condom and pill failures, most of them (46.4% condom users and 56.0% pill users) belonged to the user failure category (poor complicance). Of those seeking abortion, 56.4% had experienced at least one instance of previous abortion; 5.3% had experienced previous abortions at least two times. Emergency contraception had been utilized by only 10 subjects prior to this current pregnancy.

Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis

BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Cross sectional stature and weight reference curves for the UK, 1990.

The current reference curves of stature and weight for the UK were first published in 1966 and have been used ever since despite increasing concern that they may not adequately describe the growth of present day British children. Using current data from seven sources new reference curves have been estimated from birth to 20 years for children in 1990. The great majority of the data are nationally representative. The analysis used Cole's LMS method and has produced efficient estimates of the conventional centiles and gives a good fit to the data. These curves differ from the currently used curves at key ages for both stature and weight. In view of the concerns expressed about the current curves and the differences between them and the new curves, it is proposed that the curves presented here should be adopted as the new UK reference curves.

Physical activity at 36 years: patterns and childhood predictors in a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE The aim was to describe the sex and socioeconomic differences in patterns of physical activity at work and in leisure time of men and women aged 36 years, and to investigate factors in childhood and adolescence which predict high rates of participation in sports and recreational activities in later life. DESIGN Data collected in childhood, adolescence, and at 36 years on members of a national prospective birth cohort study were used. SETTING The population sample was resident in England, Scotland, and Wales. SUBJECTS A stratified sample of about 3500 men and women was studied regularly from birth until 43 years. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS More men than women reported high rates of sports and recreational activities, gardening, and do-it-yourself. In contrast women reported higher rates of bicycling and walking. Higher levels of education were associated with frequent participation in sports. Individuals often engaged in one type of activity without necessarily engaging in other types. Those who were most active in sport had been above average at sports in school, more outgoing socially in adolescence, had fewer health problems in childhood, were better educated, and had more mothers with a secondary education than those who were less active. CONCLUSIONS Studies that examine the relationship between physical activity and chronic disease should consider a broad range of pursuits rather than extrapolating from only one area of physical activity, and in their explanations should take account of the possible role of childhood characteristics. The findings suggest the importance of developing skills and habits in childhood as well as of encouraging healthier exercise habits in adults who may have had few opportunities or low motivation previously.

The last and the next hundred years of malariology.

The founding fathers of malariology combined scientific originality, perseverance in research, strong characters, breadth of interest and social concern. A hundred years later research and understanding has made immense progress but the world still bears a huge burden of malaria. For the next century research requires both more specialism and a holistic range if it is to be used in control, requiring multidisciplinary team work. Environmental changes and interventions produce a dynamic and changing pattern of malaria, not the static one of the past. From the original parasite life cycle, research has analysed a series of other cycles at electron microscope, biochemical and genome levels on decreasing size scales and quantitative epidemiological cycles for control. Recent additions to these concepts have been stage-specific antigens, cycles of disease rather than parasites alone, considering populations of parasites rather than just cases, and also genetic variation in each component of the parasite-human host-vector triad. In this volume there emerges for the first time a coherent overall picture of the biomedical aspects of basic malariology as the interacting population genetics of malaria parasites, anophelines and people. This provides a coherent model for the new century dealing with the great biological malaria problems of drug resistance, vaccine development, insecticidal and net control and can feed, with socio-economic work, into the gathering renewal of control efforts. New work on large-scale changes of malaria in space and time enables us to be precise about effects of local and global environmental changes to predict epidemics. Future research will be as much about linking these different scales of understanding as control will be about linking different levels of the health system. The grim situation in poor holoendemic countries also requires practical support of the type that the founders of malariology were involved in. A coherent understanding needs to feed into the new control efforts, from Roll Back Malaria onwards, for the next century.

Mass screening programmes and trends in cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands.

With respect to cervical cancer management, Finland and the Netherlands are comparable in relevant characteristics, e.g., fertility rate, age-of-mother at first birth and a national screening programme for several years. The aim of this study is to compare trends in incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in Finland and the Netherlands in relation to the introduction and intensity of the screening programmes. Therefore, incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the Cancer Registries of Finland and the Netherlands. Data on screening intensity were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry and the Dutch evaluation centre at ErasmusMC-Rotterdam. Women aged 30-60 have been screened every 5 years, in Finland since 1992 and in the Netherlands since 1996. Screening protocols for smear taking and referral to the gynaecologist are comparable. Incidence and mortality rates have declined more in Finland. In 2003, age-adjusted incidence and mortality in Finland were 4.0 and 0.9 and in the Netherlands 4.9 and 1.4 per 100,000 woman-years, respectively. Excess smear use in the Netherlands was estimated to be 24 per 1,000 women during a 5-year interval compared to 121 in Finland. The decline in mortality in Finland seems to be almost completely related to the screening programme whereas in the Netherlands it was initially considered to be a natural decline. Differences in risk factors might also play a role: the Netherlands has higher population density and higher percentages of immigrants and (female) smokers. The greater excess smear use in Finland might also have affected incidence.

Brief Internet-Based Intervention Reduces Posttraumatic Stress and Prolonged Grief in Parents after the Loss of a Child during Pregnancy: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: The loss of a child during pregnancy causes significant psychological distress for many women and their partners, and may lead to long-lasting psychiatric disorders. Internet-based interventions using exposure techniques and cognitive restructuring have proved effective for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and prolonged grief. This study compared the effects of an Internet-based intervention for parents after prenatal loss with a waiting list condition (WLC). Methods: The Impact of Event Scale - Revised assessed symptoms of PTSD; the Inventory of Complicated Grief and the Brief Symptom Inventory assessed depression, anxiety, and general mental health. The 228 participants (92% female) were randomly allocated to a treatment group (TG; n = 115) or a WLC group (n = 113). The TG received a 5-week cognitive behavioral intervention including (1) self-confrontation, (2) cognitive restructuring, and (3) social sharing. Results: The TG showed significantly reduced symptoms of posttraumatic stress, prolonged grief, depression, and anxiety relative to the WLC control group. Intention-to-treat analysis revealed treatment effects of between d = 0.84 and d = 1.02 for posttraumatic stress and prolonged grief from pre- to posttreatment time points. Further significant improvement in all symptoms of PTSD and prolonged grief was found from the posttreatment evaluation to the 12-month follow-up. The attrition rate of 14% was relatively low. Conclusions: The Internet-based intervention proved to be a feasible and cost-effective treatment, reducing symptoms of posttraumatic stress, grief, depression, anxiety, and general mental health after pregnancy loss. Low-threshold e-health interventions should be further evaluated and implemented routinely to improve psychological support after pregnancy loss.

From youth to adult homelessness

Governments have shown an interest in early intervention strategies to reduce youth homelessness, but critics say that early intervention programs lack clear outcomes. This paper investigates what happens when early intervention programs are not in place and young people progress to adult homelessness. The paper assesses the 'social adaptation' hypothesis that the longer young people are homeless the more they adapt to homelessness as a way of life. The paper uses information on 1,677 individuals who first became homeless when they were 18 or younger. Three-quarters of the sample had progressed to adult homelessness (defined as 25 or older) and one-quarter were now young adults aged 19 to 24. The findings confirm that the longer people are homeless, the more difficult it becomes to get out of homelessness. However, the social adaptation account overstates the extent to which people accept homelessness as a 'way of life'. People can return to conventional accommodation if they are given long-term support. The paper concludes with three policy recommendations.

A cluster randomized, controlled trial of breast and cervix cancer screening in Mumbai, India: methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening.

Cervix and Breast cancers are the most common cancers among women worldwide and extract a large toll in developing countries. In May 1998, supported by a grant from the NCI (US), the Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India, started a cluster-randomized, controlled, screening-trial for cervix and breast cancer using trained primary health workers to provide health-education, visual-inspection of cervix (with 4% acetic acid-VIA) and clinical breast examination (CBE) in the screening arm, and only health education in the control arm. Four rounds of screening at 2-year intervals will be followed by 8 years of monitoring for incidence and mortality from cervix and breast cancers. The methodology and interim results after three rounds of screening are presented here. Good randomization was achieved between the screening (n = 75360) and control arms (n = 76178). In the screening arm we see: High screening participation rates; Low attrition; Good compliance to diagnostic confirmation; Significant downstaging; Excellent treatment completion rate; Improving case fatality ratios. The ever-screened and never-screened participants in the screening arm show significant differences with reference to the variables religion, language, age, education, occupation, income and health-seeking behavior for gynecological and breast-related complaints. During the same period, in the control arm we see excellent participation rate for health education; Low attrition and a good number of symptomatic referrals for both cervix and breast.

Socioeconomic factors, material inequalities, and perceived control in self-rated health: cross-sectional data from seven post-communist countries.

This study examined the association between perceived control and several socioeconomic variables and self-rated health in seven post-communist countries (Russia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic). Questionnaire interviews were used to collect data on self-rated health in the last 12 months, education, marital status, perceived control based on nine questions, and material deprivation based on availability of food, clothing and heating. For each population, two ecological measures of material inequalities were available: an inequality score estimated from the survey data as the distance between the 90th and 10th percentiles of material deprivation, and Gini coefficient from published sources. Data on 5330 men and women aged 20-60 were analysed. Prevalence of poor health (worse than average) varied between 8% in Czechs and 19% in Hungarians. The age-sex-adjusted odds ratio for university vs primary education was 0.36 (0.26-0.49); odds ratios per 1 standard deviation increase in perceived control and in material deprivation were 0.58 (95% CI 0.48-0.69) and 1.51 (1.40-1.63), respectively. The odds ratio for an increase in inequality equivalent to the difference between the most and the least unequal populations was 1.49 (0.88-2.52) using the material inequality score and 1.41 (0.91-2.20) using the Gini coefficient. No indication of an effect of either inequality measure was seen after adjustment for individuals' deprivation or perceived control. The results suggest that, as in western populations, education and material deprivation are strongly related to self-rated health. Perceived control appeared statistically to mediate some of the effects of material deprivation. The non-significant effects of both ecological measures of inequality were eliminated by controlling for individuals' characteristics.

Environmental and economic costs of soil erosion and conservation benefits.

Soil erosion is a major environmental threat to the sustainability and productive capacity of agriculture. During the last 40 years, nearly one-third of the world's arable land has been lost by erosion and continues to be lost at a rate of more than 10 million hectares per year. With the addition of a quarter of a million people each day, the world population's food demand is increasing at a time when per capita food productivity is beginning to decline.

The feasibility of malaria elimination in South Africa

BACKGROUND Following the last major malaria epidemic in 2000, malaria incidence in South Africa has declined markedly. The decrease has been so emphatic that South Africa now meets the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for malaria elimination. Given the Millennium Development Goal of reversing the spread of malaria by 2015, South Africa is being urged to adopt an elimination agenda. This study aimed to determine the appropriateness of implementing a malaria elimination programme in present day South Africa. METHODS An assessment of the progress made by South Africa in terms of implementing an integrated malaria control programme across the three malaria-endemic provinces was undertaken. Vector control and case management data were analysed from the period of 2000 until 2011. RESULTS Both malaria-related morbidity and mortality have decreased significantly across all three malaria-endemic provinces since 2000. The greatest decline was seen in KwaZulu-Natal where cases decreased from 42,276 in 2000 to 380 in 2010 and deaths dropped from 122 in 2000 to six in 2010. Although there has been a 49.2 % (8,553 vs 4,214) decrease in the malaria cases reported in Limpopo Province, currently it is the largest contributor to the malaria incidence in South Africa. Despite all three provinces reporting average insecticide spray coverage of over 80%, malaria incidence in both Mpumalanga and Limpopo remains above the elimination threshold. Locally transmitted case numbers have declined in all three malaria provinces but imported case numbers have been increasing. Knowledge gaps in vector distribution, insecticide resistance status and drug usage were also identified. CONCLUSIONS Malaria elimination in South Africa is a realistic possibility if certain criteria are met. Firstly, there must be continued support for the existing malaria control programmes to ensure the gains made are sustained. Secondly, cross border malaria control initiatives with neighbouring countries must be strongly encouraged and supported to reduce malaria in the region and the importation of malaria into South Africa. Thirdly, operational research, particularly on vector distribution and insecticide resistance status must be conducted as a matter of urgency, and finally, the surveillance systems must be refined to ensure the information required to inform an elimination agenda are routinely collected.

A Century of Cholesterol and Coronaries: From Plaques to Genes to Statins

One-fourth of all deaths in industrialized countries result from coronary heart disease. A century of research has revealed the essential causative agent: cholesterol-carrying low-density lipoprotein (LDL). LDL is controlled by specific receptors (LDLRs) in liver that remove it from blood. Mutations that eliminate LDLRs raise LDL and cause heart attacks in childhood, whereas mutations that raise LDLRs reduce LDL and diminish heart attacks. If we are to eliminate coronary disease, lowering LDL should be the primary goal. Effective means to achieve this goal are currently available. The key questions are: who to treat, when to treat, and how long to treat.

Loss of allergen 1 confers a hypervirulent phenotype that resembles mucoid switch variants of Cryptococcus neoformans.

Microbial survival in a host is usually dependent on the ability of a pathogen to undergo changes that promote escape from host defense mechanisms. The human-pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus neoformans undergoes phenotypic switching in vivo that promotes persistence in tissue. By microarray and real-time PCR analyses, the allergen 1 gene (ALL1) was found to be downregulated in the hypervirulent mucoid switch variant, both during logarithmic growth and during intracellular growth in macrophages. The ALL1 gene encodes a small cytoplasmic protein that is involved in capsule formation. Growth of an all1Delta gene deletion mutant was normal. Similar to cells of the mucoid switch variant, all1Delta cells produced a larger polysaccharide capsule than cells of the smooth parent and the complemented strain produced, and the enlarged capsule inhibited macrophage phagocytosis. The mutant exhibited a modest defect in capsule induction compared to all of the other variants. In animal models the phenotype of the all1Delta mutant mimicked the hypervirulent phenotype of the mucoid switch variant, which is characterized by decreased host survival and elevated intracranial pressure. Decreased survival is likely the result of both an ineffective cell-mediated immune response and impaired phagocytosis by macrophages. Consequently, we concluded that, unlike loss of most virulence-associated genes, where loss of gene function results in attenuated virulence, loss of the ALL1 gene enhances virulence by altering the host-pathogen interaction and thereby impairing clearance. Our data identified the first cryptococcal gene associated with elevated intracranial pressure and support the hypothesis that an environmental opportunistic pathogen has modified its virulence in vivo by epigenetic downregulation of gene function.

Female Gender and Reproductive Factors Affecting Risk, Relapses and Progression in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic inflammatory demyelina-ting and degenerative disease of the central nervous system, is a frequent cause of neurological disability in young adults. Female predominance has increased over the last decades. Although female gender carries a higher risk of developing relapsing remitting MS, being female and at child-bearing age also appears to provide some protection against cognitive decline and against progressive onset MS, an adverse predictive factor when considering long-term disability in MS. The risk of MS in women has been associated with an earlier age at menarche. In most studies, parity did not impact MS risk. However, the recently published association of higher parity and offspring number with a reduced risk of a first demyelinating event suggests a potential suppressive effect. Pregnancy in MS patients has been associated with a reduced relapse rate and a reduction of neurological symptoms, especially in the third trimester. Despite the increased relapse risk in the postpartum period, there is no indication of an adverse effect of childbirth on the long-term course of MS. Fertility treatment in MS has been associated with an increased relapse risk in the following 3-month period, especially when the procedure did not result in pregnancy and gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonists were used. Altogether, there is substantial evidence to support a regulatory role of sex steroid hormones in MS. In the absence of correlations with single hormone blood levels, we can only speculate about the underlying mechanisms. In conclusion, the increased MS risk in women and the changes in relapse and progression risk in association with reproductive events suggest significant and complex interactions between immune, neuroendocrine and reproductive systems in MS.

Once-a-day Concerta methylphenidate versus three-times-daily methylphenidate in laboratory and natural settings.

OBJECTIVE Methylphenidate (MPH), the most commonly prescribed drug for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), has a short half-life, which necessitates multiple daily doses. The need for multiple doses produces problems with medication administration during school and after-school hours, and therefore with compliance. Previous long-acting stimulants and preparations have shown effects equivalent to twice-daily dosing of MPH. This study tests the efficacy and duration of action, in natural and laboratory settings, of an extended-release MPH preparation designed to last 12 hours and therefore be equivalent to 3-times-daily dosing. METHODS Sixty-eight children with ADHD, 6 to 12 years old, participated in a within-subject, double-blind comparison of placebo, immediate-release (IR) MPH 3 times a day (tid), and Concerta, a once-daily MPH formulation. Three dosing levels of medication were used: 5 mg IR MPH tid/18 mg Concerta once a day (qd); 10 mg IR MPH tid/36 mg Concerta qd; and 15 mg IR MPH tid/54 mg Concerta qd. All children were currently medicated with MPH at enrollment, and each child's dose level was based on that child's MPH dosing before the study. The doses of Concerta were selected to be comparable to the daily doses of MPH that each child received. To achieve the ascending rate of MPH delivery determined by initial investigations to provide the necessary continuous coverage, Concerta doses were 20% higher on a daily basis than a comparable tid regimen of IR MPH. Children received each medication condition for 7 days. The investigation was conducted in the context of a background clinical behavioral intervention in both the natural environment and the laboratory setting. Parents received behavioral parent training and teachers were taught to establish a school-home daily report card (DRC). A DRC is a list of individual target behaviors that represent a child's most salient areas of impairment. Teachers set daily goals for each child's impairment targets, and parents provided rewards at home for goal attainment. Each weekday, teachers completed the DRC, and it was used as a dependent measure of individualized medication response. Teachers and parents also completed weekly standardized ratings of behavior and treatment effectiveness. To evaluate the time course of medication effects, children spent 12 hours in a laboratory setting on Saturdays and medication effects were measured using procedures and methods adapted from our summer treatment program. Measures of classroom behavior and academic productivity/accuracy were taken in a laboratory classroom setting during which children completed independent math and reading worksheets. Measures of social behavior were taken in structured, small-group board game settings and unstructured recess settings. Measures included behavior frequency counts, academic problems completed and accuracy, independent observations, teacher and counselor ratings, and individualized behavioral target goals. Reports of adverse events, sleep quality, and appetite were collected. RESULTS On virtually all measures in all settings, both drug conditions were significantly different from placebo, and the 2 drugs were not different from each other. In children's regular school settings, both medications improved behavior as measured by teacher ratings and individualized target behaviors (the DRC); these effects were seen into the evening as measured by parent ratings. In the laboratory setting, effects of Concerta were equivalent to tid MPH and lasted at least through 12 hours after dosing. Concerta was significantly superior to tid MPH on 2 parent rating scores, and when asked, more parents preferred Concerta than preferred tid IR MPH or placebo. Side effects on children's sleep and appetite were similar for the 2 preparations. In the lab setting, both medications improved productivity and accuracy on arithmetic seatwork assignments, disruptive and on-task behavior, and classroom rule following. Both medications improved children's rule following and negative behavior in small group board games, as well as in unstructured recess settings. Individual target behaviors also showed significant improvement with medication across domains in the laboratory setting. Children's behavior across settings deteriorated across the laboratory day, and the primary effect of medication was to prevent this deterioration as the day wore on. Results support the use of background behavioral treatment in clinical trials of stimulant medication, and illustrate the utility of a measure of individualized daily target goals (ie, the DRC) as an objective measure of medication response in both the laboratory and natural school settings. CONCLUSION This investigation clearly supports the efficacy of the Concerta long-acting formulation of MPH for parents who desire to have medication benefits for their child throughout the day and early evening. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Bed sharing when parents do not smoke: is there a risk of SIDS? An individual level analysis of five major case–control studies

OBJECTIVE To resolve uncertainty as to the risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) associated with sleeping in bed with your baby if neither parent smokes and the baby is breastfed. DESIGN Bed sharing was defined as sleeping with a baby in the parents' bed; room sharing as baby sleeping in the parents' room. Frequency of bed sharing during last sleep was compared between babies who died of SIDS and living control infants. Five large SIDS case-control datasets were combined. Missing data were imputed. Random effects logistic regression controlled for confounding factors. SETTING Home sleeping arrangements of infants in 19 studies across the UK, Europe and Australasia. PARTICIPANTS 1472 SIDS cases, and 4679 controls. Each study effectively included all cases, by standard criteria. Controls were randomly selected normal infants of similar age, time and place. RESULTS In the combined dataset, 22.2% of cases and 9.6% of controls were bed sharing, adjusted OR (AOR) for all ages 2.7; 95% CI (1.4 to 5.3). Bed sharing risk decreased with increasing infant age. When neither parent smoked, and the baby was less than 3 months, breastfed and had no other risk factors, the AOR for bed sharing versus room sharing was 5.1 (2.3 to 11.4) and estimated absolute risk for these room sharing infants was very low (0.08 (0.05 to 0.14)/1000 live-births). This increased to 0.23 (0.11 to 0.43)/1000 when bed sharing. Smoking and alcohol use greatly increased bed sharing risk. CONCLUSIONS Bed sharing for sleep when the parents do not smoke or take alcohol or drugs increases the risk of SIDS. Risks associated with bed sharing are greatly increased when combined with parental smoking, maternal alcohol consumption and/or drug use. A substantial reduction of SIDS rates could be achieved if parents avoided bed sharing.

The effects of self-administering emergency contraception.

BACKGROUND Emergency postcoital contraception prevents pregnancy, but it must be prescribed by a doctor and taken within 72 hours of intercourse. It has been proposed that emergency contraception be made available without a prescription. We undertook a study to learn how women might behave if given a supply of emergency contraceptive pills to keep at home. METHODS We assigned 553 women to be given a replaceable supply of hormonal emergency contraceptive pills to take home (the treatment group) and 530 women to use emergency contraception obtained by visiting a doctor (the control group). The frequency of use of emergency contraception, the use of other contraceptives, and the incidence of unwanted pregnancy were determined in both groups of women one year later. RESULTS The results for 549 women in the treatment group and 522 women in the control group were available for analysis. Three hundred seventy-nine of the women in the treatment group (69 percent) and 326 of the women in the control group (62 percent) contributed detailed information at follow-up. One hundred eighty of the women in the treatment group (47 percent) used emergency contraception at least once. Among those who returned the study questionnaire, 98 percent used emergency contraception correctly. There were no serious adverse effects. Eighty-seven women in the control group (27 percent) used emergency contraception at least once (P<0.001 for the comparison with the treatment group). The women in the treatment group were not more likely to use emergency contraception repeatedly. Their use of other methods of contraception was no different from that of the women in the control group. There were 18 unintended pregnancies in the treatment group and 25 in the control group (relative risk, 0.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.4 to 1.2). CONCLUSIONS Making emergency contraception more easily obtainable does no harm and may reduce the rate of unwanted pregnancies.

Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated.

Preterm patent ductus arteriosus: A continuing conundrum for the neonatologist?

How to manage the preterm patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) remains a conundrum. On the one hand, physiology and statistical association with adverse outcomes suggest that it is pathological. On the other hand, clinical trials of treatment strategies have failed to show any long-term benefit. Ultrasound studies of PDA have suggested that the haemodynamic impact may be much earlier after birth than previously thought (in the first hours); however, we still do not know when to treat PDA. Studies that have tested symptomatic or pre-symptomatic treatment are mainly historical and have not tested the effect of no treatment. Prophylactic treatment is the best-studied regimen but improvements in some short-term outcomes do not translate to any difference in longer-term outcomes. Neonatologists have been reluctant to engage in trials that test treatment against almost never treating. Observations of very early postnatal haemodynamic significance suggest that targeting treatment on the basis of the early postnatal constrictive response of the duct may optimize benefits. A pilot trial of this strategy showed reduction in the incidence of pulmonary haemorrhage but more trials of this strategy are needed.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available. METHODS AND FINDINGS Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data. CONCLUSIONS The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

The changing epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara Town, southern Tanzania.

Between 1995 and 2000 there were marked changes in the epidemiology of malaria in Ifakara, southern Tanzania. We documented these changes using parasitological and clinical data from a series of community- and hospital-based studies involving children up to the age of 5 years. There was a right shift and lowering in the age-specific parasite prevalence in the community-based cohort studies. The incidence of clinical malaria in placebo-receiving infants in additional study cohorts dropped from 0.8 in 1995 to 0.43 episodes per infant per year in 2000, an incidence rate ratio of 0.53 (95% confidence interval: 0.404, 0.70, P<0.0001). At the same time, there was an increase in the total number of malaria admissions and a marked right shift in the age pattern of these admissions (median age in 1995 1.55 years vs. 2.33 in 2000, P<0.0001). However, the burden of malaria deaths remained in infants. We discuss how these dramatic changes in the epidemiology of malaria may have arisen from the use of currently available malaria control tools. Caution is required in the interpretation of hospital-based data as it is likely to underestimate the impact of anaemia on mortality in the community, where most paediatric deaths occur. Even in low/moderate malaria transmission settings, where older children suffer most malaria episodes, targeting effective malaria control at infants may produce important reductions in infant mortality caused by malaria.

JUVENILE MORTALITY INCREASES WITH CLUTCH SIZE IN A NEOTROPICAL BIRD

The change in avian clutch size with latitude is a celebrated example of geographic variation in a vertebrate life-history trait. Alternative hypotheses for this pattern invoke nest predation, limited food for nestlings, or post-fledging juvenile mortality as selection pressures leading to small clutch size of tropical birds. We manipulated the clutch size of Spotted Antbirds (Hylophylax naevioides) in central Panama to test these hypotheses. We observed that rates of nest predation were not influenced by parental activity at nests and parents could successfully feed nestlings in enlarged broods. Although larger broods produced the most fledged juveniles, these individuals were less likely to survive to dispersal than were juveniles that fledged from smaller broods. Consequently, nest productivity did not vary with clutch size. Post-fledging mortality was not related to nestling mass two to three days prior to fledging. Rather, differences in the allocation of parental investment per juvenile among differently sized broods appeared to influence juvenile survival probability. These results identify parental care during the post-fledging period as a potential key factor influencing the evolution of small clutch size in tropical birds.

Sudden infant death syndrome.

Despite declines in prevalence during the past two decades, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) continues to be the leading cause of death for infants aged between 1 month and 1 year in developed countries. Behavioural risk factors identified in epidemiological studies include prone and side positions for infant sleep, smoke exposure, soft bedding and sleep surfaces, and overheating. Evidence also suggests that pacifier use at sleep time and room sharing without bed sharing are associated with decreased risk of SIDS. Although the cause of SIDS is unknown, immature cardiorespiratory autonomic control and failure of arousal responsiveness from sleep are important factors. Gene polymorphisms relating to serotonin transport and autonomic nervous system development might make affected infants more vulnerable to SIDS. Campaigns for risk reduction have helped to reduce SIDS incidence by 50-90%. However, to reduce the incidence even further, greater strides must be made in reducing prenatal smoke exposure and implementing other recommended infant care practices. Continued research is needed to identify the pathophysiological basis of SIDS.

Changes in the prevalence of cerebral palsy for children born very prematurely within a population-based program over 30 years.

CONTEXT Although cerebral palsy (CP) among extremely premature infants has been reported as a major morbidity outcome, there are difficulties comparing published CP rates from many sites over various birth years. OBJECTIVE To assess the changes in population-based, gestational age-specific prevalence rates of CP among extremely premature infants over 30 years. DESIGN Prospective population-based longitudinal outcome study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS In Northern Alberta, 2318 infants 20 to 27 weeks' gestational age with birth weights of 500 to 1249 g were liveborn from 1974 through 2003. By 2 years of age, 1437 (62%) had died, 23 (1%) were lost to follow-up, and 858 (37%) had received multidisciplinary neurodevelopmental assessment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Population-based prevalence rates of CP were determined. Logistic regression with linear spline was used to assess changes in CP prevalence over time. RESULTS At age 2 years, 122 (14.2%) of 858 survivors had CP. This diagnosis was confirmed for each child by age 3 years or older. Among those whose gestational age was 20 to 25 weeks, population-based survival increased from 4% to 31% (P<.001), while CP prevalence per 1000 live births increased monotonically from 0 to 110 until the years 1992-1994 (P<.001) and decreased thereafter to 22 in the years 2001-2003 (P<.001). Among those whose gestational age was 26 to 27 weeks, population-based survival increased from 23% to between 75% and 80% (P<.001), while CP prevalence per 1000 live births increased monotonically from 15 to 155 until the years 1992-1994 (P<.001) and then decreased to 16 in the years 2001-2003 (P<.001). For all survivors born in the years 2001-2003, CP prevalence was 19 per 1000 live births. CONCLUSION Population-based CP prevalence rates for children whose gestational age was 20 to 27 weeks and whose birth weight ranged from 500 to 1249 g show steady reductions in the last decade with stable or reducing mortality, reversing trends prior to 1992-1994.

"We charge them; otherwise we cannot run the hospital" front line workers, clients and health financing policy implementation gaps in Ghana.

OBJECTIVES This paper examines policy implementation gaps of user fees plus exemptions and health insurance in providing financial access to primary clinical care for children under five in Ghana. METHODS Methods included analysis of routine data, focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and administration of a structured questionnaire. RESULTS Providers modified exemptions policy implementation arrangements, sometimes giving partial or no exemptions. Clients who knew or suspected exemption entitlements failed to request them because of fear of negative reactions from providers. Providers attributed their modification of implementation arrangements and negative reactions to the threat posed to the financial viability of their institutions by reimbursement uncertainty and delays. At the time of the study insurance coverage was low and frontline workers were not noticeably modifying implementation arrangements. However, the underlying goal conflicts, resource scarcity, conditions of work and relationships between frontline workers and clients that fueled the exemptions policy implementation gaps were unchanged. The potential for the health insurance policy to stumble over implementation gaps as happened with the exemptions policy therefore remained. CONCLUSIONS Policies that do not take into account the incentives for frontline worker adherence and align them better with policy objectives may experience implementation gaps.

‘Short stature in children - a questionnaire for parents’: a new instrument for growth disorder-specific psychosocial adaptation in children

Recent studies report comparable psychosocial adaptation in children with or without a growth disorder. These findings may be due to a general lack of sensitive and specific techniques for analysing and comparing their respective qualities of life. In this study we present a new questionnaire for parents of short-statured children. We suggest both a qualitative and quantitative approach providing specific information about the relative extent of individual stress factors and sources of help. The parents of 442 children with growth retardation resulting from different aetiologies completed the questionnaire. Aprincipal component analysis of the scaled items revealed four dimensions of psychosocial adaptation: suffering, future anxieties, behavioural problems and coping efforts. The index of internal consistency reliability was sufficient for all scales. The comparison of two selected growth disorder groups (achondroplasia versus growth hormone deficiency) demonstrated growth disorder-specific but not very different profiles of psychosocial adaptation. The qualitative analysis revealed a shift in the stress factor patterns (achondroplasia, more physical restrictions). These findings give evidence for both the specificity and construct validity of the new instrument. Therefore, we may conclude that this questionnaire is a helpful method in attaining growth disorder-specific information about individual stress factors, resources and psychosocial adaptation.

The Global Spread of Hepatitis C Virus 1a and 1b: A Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Analysis

BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is estimated to affect 130-180 million people worldwide. Although its origin is unknown, patterns of viral diversity suggest that HCV genotype 1 probably originated from West Africa. Previous attempts to estimate the spatiotemporal parameters of the virus, both globally and regionally, have suggested that epidemic HCV transmission began in 1900 and grew steadily until the late 1980s. However, epidemiological data suggest that the expansion of HCV may have occurred after the Second World War. The aim of our study was to elucidate the timescale and route of the global spread of HCV. METHODS AND FINDINGS We show that the rarely sequenced HCV region (E2P7NS2) is more informative for molecular epidemiology studies than the more commonly used NS5B region. We applied phylodynamic methods to a substantial set of new E2P7NS2 and NS5B sequences, together with all available global HCV sequences with information in both of these genomic regions, in order to estimate the timescale and nature of the global expansion of the most prevalent HCV subtypes, 1a and 1b. We showed that transmission of subtypes 1a and 1b "exploded" between 1940 and 1980, with the spread of 1b preceding that of 1a by at least 16 y (95% confidence interval 15-17). Phylogeographic analysis of all available NS5B sequences suggests that HCV subtypes 1a and 1b disseminated from the developed world to the developing countries. CONCLUSIONS The evolutionary rate of HCV appears faster than previously suggested. The global spread of HCV coincided with the widespread use of transfused blood and blood products and with the expansion of intravenous drug use but slowed prior to the wide implementation of anti-HCV screening. Differences in the transmission routes associated with subtypes 1a and 1b provide an explanation of the relatively earlier expansion of 1b. Our data show that the most plausible route of the HCV dispersal was from developed countries to the developing world. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Mental health problems of homeless children and families: longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE To establish the mental health needs of homeless children and families before and after rehousing. DESIGN Cross sectional, longitudinal study. SETTING City of Birmingham. SUBJECTS 58 rehoused families with 103 children aged 2-16 years and 21 comparison families of low socioeconomic status in stable housing, with 54 children. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Children's mental health problems and level of communication; mothers' mental health problems and social support one year after rehousing. RESULTS Mental health problems remained significantly higher in rehoused mothers and their children than in the comparison group (mothers 26% v 5%, P = 0.04; children 39% v 11%, P = 0.0003). Homeless mothers continued to have significantly less social support at follow up. Mothers with a history of abuse and poor social integration were more likely to have children with persistent mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS Homeless families have a high level of complex needs that cannot be met by conventional health services and arrangements. Local strategies for rapid rehousing into permanent accommodation, effective social support and health care for parents and children, and protection from violence and intimidation should be developed and implemented.

Pathophysiology of obstructive nephropathy in the newborn.

Congenital obstructive nephropathy is a consequence abnormal urinary tract development resulting in renal growth failure and injury manifested by progressive tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis. We have studied the renal cellular and physiological response to unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO) in the neonatal rodent (guinea pig, rat, and mouse). Whereas in the adult, UUO stimulates renal cellular proliferation, UUO in the neonate reduces nephrogenesis, glomerular maturation, and tubular cellular proliferation. This is accompanied by a proportionately greater compensatory growth of the intact opposite kidney in the neonate. Impaired renal growth and tubular atrophy are likely owing at least in part to stimulation of renal tubular apoptosis. This, in turn, may result from a combination of factors, including loss of epithelial cell polarity, a reduction in the oncoprotein bcl-2 and epidermal growth factor (EGF), and increased expression of the fibrogenic cytokine, transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGF-beta1). Infusion of EGF stimulates cellular proliferation, suppresses apoptosis, and reduces tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis. TGF-beta1 is regulated by the renin-angiotensin system, which is markedly activated by UUO in the neonate. The functional consequences of obstructive nephropathy in early development are hyperfiltration by remaining nephrons, followed by progressive decrease in glomerular filtration rate that may only develop in later life. Improved management of congenital urinary tract obstruction will depend on a better understanding of the cellular mechanisms, which may lead to specific treatment using gene therapy or modulators of renal growth and development.

Physician Emigration from Sub-Saharan Africa to the United States: Analysis of the 2011 AMA Physician Masterfile

BACKGROUND The large-scale emigration of physicians from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to high-income nations is a serious development concern. Our objective was to determine current emigration trends of SSA physicians found in the physician workforce of the United States. METHODS AND FINDINGS We analyzed physician data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Workforce Statistics along with graduation and residency data from the 2011 American Medical Association Physician Masterfile (AMA-PM) on physicians trained or born in SSA countries who currently practice in the US. We estimated emigration proportions, year of US entry, years of practice before emigration, and length of time in the US. According to the 2011 AMA-PM, 10,819 physicians were born or trained in 28 SSA countries. Sixty-eight percent (n = 7,370) were SSA-trained, 20% (n = 2,126) were US-trained, and 12% (n = 1,323) were trained outside both SSA and the US. We estimated active physicians (age ≤ 70 years) to represent 96% (n = 10,377) of the total. Migration trends among SSA-trained physicians increased from 2002 to 2011 for all but one principal source country; the exception was South Africa whose physician migration to the US decreased by 8% (-156). The increase in last-decade migration was >50% in Nigeria (+1,113) and Ghana (+243), >100% in Ethiopia (+274), and >200% (+244) in Sudan. Liberia was the most affected by migration to the US with 77% (n = 175) of its estimated physicians in the 2011 AMA-PM. On average, SSA-trained physicians have been in the US for 18 years. They practiced for 6.5 years before US entry, and nearly half emigrated during the implementation years (1984-1999) of the structural adjustment programs. CONCLUSION Physician emigration from SSA to the US is increasing for most SSA source countries. Unless far-reaching policies are implemented by the US and SSA countries, the current emigration trends will persist, and the US will remain a leading destination for SSA physicians emigrating from the continent of greatest need. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Evidence for a limit to human lifespan

Driven by technological progress, human life expectancy has increased greatly since the nineteenth century. Demographic evidence has revealed an ongoing reduction in old-age mortality and a rise of the maximum age at death, which may gradually extend human longevity. Together with observations that lifespan in various animal species is flexible and can be increased by genetic or pharmaceutical intervention, these results have led to suggestions that longevity may not be subject to strict, species-specific genetic constraints. Here, by analysing global demographic data, we show that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s. Our results strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.

Urban spatial development in the land policy reform era: evidence from Beijing

This paper examines the characteristics of urban spatial development in Beijing and identifies the extent to which these characteristics can be attributed to the emerging land market in Beijing as well as the impact of land policy reform. Based on the observations of land use rights granted from 1993 to the first half of 2000 in the built-up area of Beijing, empirical analyses illustrate that both land prices and land development density decrease with distance to the city core. It further provides evidence that the slope of the land rent curve also depends on land use types. This leads to the conclusion that the land market influences land development decisions and urban form. Finally, it shows that the slope of the land rent curve and the elasticity of land-capital substitution change over time. The former declines, as expected. This is because Beijing's massive investments in transport have reduced transport costs, which in turn has shifted the land rent curve. The latter rises, implying the price effect on land development density. Both changesâ€”in land rent function and the elasticity of land-capital substitution-point to the maturing of the Beijing land market. It should be mentioned that there are enormous land developments outside the land market (land development on administratively allocated land). These developments can significantly distort urban land use patterns portrayed through this study.

Determination of Malaria Epidemiological Status in Iran’s Malarious Areas as Baseline Information for Implementation of Malaria Elimination Program in Iran

BACKGROUND According to willingness of the Ministry of Health, Iran and presence of appropriate conditions for disease elimination, national malaria control program decided to conduct a research to clarify malaria status in 2007 and to provide required information to perform the elimination program. This review is comprised of the basis of national malaria elimination program in vision of 2025, which was started in 2010. METHODS In this descriptive study, data were analyzed by applications of different variables at district level. All districts in the three south eastern provinces, in which malaria has local transmission, were considered. Malaria cases has been determined and studied based on the national malaria surveillance system. RESULTS Since vivax malaria is predominant in Sistan & Baluchestan Province, number of vivax cases is equal to malaria positive cases approximately. The important point is that Nikshahr contains the maximum number of local vivax cases in this province and the maximum number of falciparum cases is reported from Sarbaz district. Among all districts of Hormozgan Province, no case of autochthonous falciparum was detected except in Bandar Jask and one case in Minab. There was no case of autochthonous falciparum in Kerman Province, except in Kahnoj and Ghale Ganj that each of them had one case in 2007. CONCLUSION It appears that the report of locally transmitted cases in Iran is increasing over the past few years, before starting malaria elimination plan. Since the Afghan refugees started to return to their own country so the main source of reporting of imported malaria cases reduced and local cases would be demonstrated more clearly.

Political and economic aspects of the transition to universal health coverage.

Countries have reached universal health coverage by different paths and with varying health systems. Nonetheless, the trajectory toward universal health coverage regularly has three common features. The first is a political process driven by a variety of social forces to create public programmes or regulations that expand access to care, improve equity, and pool financial risks. The second is a growth in incomes and a concomitant rise in health spending, which buys more health services for more people. The third is an increase in the share of health spending that is pooled rather than paid out-of-pocket by households. This pooled share is sometimes mobilised as taxes and channelled through governments that provide or subsidise care--in other cases it is mobilised in the form of contributions to mandatory insurance schemes. The predominance of pooled spending is a necessary condition (but not sufficient) for achieving universal health coverage. This paper describes common patterns in countries that have successfully provided universal access to health care and considers how economic growth, demographics, technology, politics, and health spending have intersected to bring about this major development in public health.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of homelessness on children.

This article reviews and critiques community-based research on the effects of homelessness on children. Homeless children confront serious threats to their ability to succeed and their future well-being. Of particular concern are health problems, hunger, poor nutrition, developmental delays, anxiety, depression, behavioral problems, and educational underachievement. Factors that may mediate the observed outcomes include inadequate shelter conditions, instability in residences and shelters, inadequate services, and barriers to accessing services that are available. Public policy initiatives are needed to meet the needs of homeless children.

DNA methylation and healthy human aging

The process of aging results in a host of changes at the cellular and molecular levels, which include senescence, telomere shortening, and changes in gene expression. Epigenetic patterns also change over the lifespan, suggesting that epigenetic changes may constitute an important component of the aging process. The epigenetic mark that has been most highly studied is DNA methylation, the presence of methyl groups at CpG dinucleotides. These dinucleotides are often located near gene promoters and associate with gene expression levels. Early studies indicated that global levels of DNA methylation increase over the first few years of life and then decrease beginning in late adulthood. Recently, with the advent of microarray and next-generation sequencing technologies, increases in variability of DNA methylation with age have been observed, and a number of site-specific patterns have been identified. It has also been shown that certain CpG sites are highly associated with age, to the extent that prediction models using a small number of these sites can accurately predict the chronological age of the donor. Together, these observations point to the existence of two phenomena that both contribute to age-related DNA methylation changes: epigenetic drift and the epigenetic clock. In this review, we focus on healthy human aging throughout the lifetime and discuss the dynamics of DNA methylation as well as how interactions between the genome, environment, and the epigenome influence aging rates. We also discuss the impact of determining 'epigenetic age' for human health and outline some important caveats to existing and future studies.

Emergency contraception: advance provision in a young, high-risk clinic population.

OBJECTIVE To assess whether advance provision of emergency contraception increases its use and whether it has secondary effects on regular contraceptive use. METHODS We conducted a controlled trial of female clients, aged 16-24 years, who attended a publicly funded family planning clinic. Women were systematically assigned to receive an advance provision of emergency contraception and education (treatment) or education only (control). Among 263 participants enrolled (133 treatment, 130 control), follow-up was completed in 213 (111 treatment, 102 control). The main outcome measures were emergency contraception knowledge and use, frequency of unprotected sex, and pattern of contraceptive use in the past 4 months. RESULTS Participants were aware of emergency contraception at follow-up, but the treatment group was three times as likely to use it (P =.006). Although the treatment group did not report higher frequencies of unprotected sex than the control group, women in the treatment group (28%) were more likely than those in the control group (17%) to report using less effective contraception at follow-up compared with enrollment (P =.05). The proportion of women in both groups who reported consistent pill use increased from enrollment to follow-up (34% versus 45%); however, the control group (58%) was more likely than the treatment group (32%) to report consistent pill use at follow-up (P =.03). CONCLUSION Use of emergency contraception was increased by providing it in advance, but not by education alone. Changes to less effective contraceptive methods and patterns of pill use were potentially negative effects that need to be explored in relation to observed benefits.

Fluconazole prophylaxis: can we eliminate invasive Candida infections in the neonatal ICU?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Owing to the high mortality, risk of neurodevelopmental impairment and end-organ involvement with fungal infections in the neonate, prevention of invasive Candida infections in extremely preterm infants should be a priority for each neonatal ICU. RECENT FINDINGS Even with prompt or empiric treatment, mortality and neurodevelopmental impairment is high (57%) in infants <1000 g. Multiple studies have been performed with fluconazole prophylaxis, including a recent multicenter randomized controlled trial. All of the studies have demonstrated efficacy and safety with no increase or emergence of fungal resistance. Analysis of these studies demonstrates that fluconazole prophylaxis decreased the incidence of invasive Candida infections in high-risk infants <1000 g by 91% (P = 0.0004) and all infants <1500 g by 85% (P < 0.0001). The mortality rate from all causes was 25% lower (P = 0.029). Furthermore, studies have demonstrated that all Candida-related mortality can be eliminated in an entire neonatal ICU by targeting fluconazole prophylaxis in infants <1000 g.   SUMMARY Targeting fluconazole prophylaxis to infants who are either <1000 g or < or =27 weeks is highly effective, safe and inexpensive, and can eliminate these infections as a cause of neurodevelopmental impairment and mortality.

Prevalence, risk factors, and uptake of interventions for sexually transmitted infections in Britain: findings from the National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal)

BACKGROUND Population-based estimates of prevalence, risk distribution, and intervention uptake inform delivery of control programmes for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We undertook the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) after implementation of national sexual health strategies, and describe the epidemiology of four STIs in Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales) and the uptake of interventions. METHODS Between Sept 6, 2010 and Aug 31, 2012 , we did a probability sample survey of 15,162 women and men aged 16-74 years in Britain. Participants were interviewed with computer-assisted face-to-face and self-completion questionnaires. Urine from a sample of participants aged 16-44 years who reported at least one sexual partner over the lifetime was tested for the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis, type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV), Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and HIV antibody. We describe age-specific and sex-specific prevalences of infection and intervention uptake, in relation to demographic and behavioural factors, and explore changes since Natsal-1 (1990-91) and Natsal-2 (1999-2001). FINDINGS Of 8047 eligible participants invited to provide a urine sample, 4828 (60%) agreed. We excluded 278 samples, leaving 4550 (94%) participants with STI test results. Chlamydia prevalence was 1·5% (95% CI 1·1-2·0) in women and 1·1% (0·7-1·6) in men. Prevalences in individuals aged 16-24 years were 3·1% (2·2-4·3) in women and 2·3% (1·5-3·4) in men. Area-level deprivation and higher numbers of partners, especially without use of condoms, were risk factors. However, 60·4% (45·5-73·7) of chlamydia in women and 43·3% (25·9-62·5) in men was in individuals who had had one partner in the past year. Among sexually active 16-24-year-olds, 54·2% (51·4-56·9) of women and 34·6% (31·8-37·4) of men reported testing for chlamydia in the past year, with testing higher in those with more partners. High-risk HPV was detected in 15·9% (14·4-17·5) of women, similar to in Natsal-2. Coverage of HPV catch-up vaccination was 61·5% (58·2-64·7). Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in women aged 18-20 years was lower in Natsal-3 than Natsal-2 (5·8% [3·9-8·6] vs 11·3% [6·8-18·2]; age-adjusted odds ratio 0·44 [0·21-0·94]). Gonorrhoea (<0·1% prevalence in women and men) and HIV (0·1% prevalence in women and 0·2% in men) were uncommon and restricted to participants with recognised high-risk factors. Since Natsal-2, substantial increases were noted in attendance at sexual health clinics (from 6·7% to 21·4% in women and from 7·7% to 19·6% in men) and HIV testing (from 8·7% to 27·6% in women and from 9·2% to 16·9% in men) in the past 5 years. INTERPRETATION STIs were distributed heterogeneously, requiring general and infection-specific interventions. Increases in testing and attendance at sexual health clinics, especially in people at highest risk, are encouraging. However, STIs persist both in individuals accessing and those not accessing services. Our findings provide empirical evidence to inform future sexual health interventions and services. FUNDING Grants from the UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust, with support from the Economic and Social Research Council and the Department of Health.

RBP2 Belongs to a Family of Demethylases, Specific for Tri-and Dimethylated Lysine 4 on Histone 3

Methylation of histones has been regarded as a stable modification defining the epigenetic program of the cell, which regulates chromatin structure and transcription. However, the recent discovery of histone demethylases has challenged the stable nature of histone methylation. Here we demonstrate that the JARID1 proteins RBP2, PLU1, and SMCX are histone demethylases specific for di- and trimethylated histone 3 lysine 4 (H3K4). Consistent with a role for the JARID1 Drosophila homolog Lid in regulating expression of homeotic genes during development, we show that RBP2 is displaced from Hox genes during embryonic stem (ES) cell differentiation correlating with an increase of their H3K4me3 levels and expression. Furthermore, we show that mutation or RNAi depletion of the C. elegans JARID1 homolog rbr-2 leads to increased levels of H3K4me3 during larval development and defects in vulva formation. Taken together, these results suggest that H3K4me3/me2 demethylation regulated by the JARID1 family plays an important role during development.

Psychological adaptation in children with idiopathic short stature treated with growth hormone or placebo.

The influence of short stature on psychological adaptation in childhood and adolescence is controversial. GH is currently used to treat children with idiopathic short stature (ISS, also known as non-GH-deficient short stature). This study represents the first double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the effects of GH on the psychological adaptation of children and adolescents with ISS, treated with GH until adult height was attained. Sixty-eight children (53 males, 15 females), 9-16 yr old, with marked ISS (measured height or predicted adult height -2.5 sd or less) received either GH 0.074 mg/kg or placebo sc three times per week until height velocity decreased to less than 1.5 cm/yr. Parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and children the Self-Perception Profile (SPP) and Silhouette Apperception Technique at baseline and annually thereafter. Baseline behavioral/emotional adjustment (CBCL) and self-concept (SPP) scores for children with ISS were within the normative range. The two study groups exhibited similar behavioral and self-concept profiles (CBCL) during the first 2 yr of the study. However, CBCL behavior problems (internalizing, externalizing, and total problems) appeared to decline, in yr 3 and 4, in the GH-treated group relative to the placebo-treated group. Group differences in CBCL competency domains and the SPP were not observed at any point during the study. Short stature among children with ISS enrolled in this long-term, placebo-controlled study was not associated with problems in psychological adaptation or self-concept with the psychological instruments employed. GH treatment was associated with a trend toward improvement in problem behaviors, as measured by questionnaires (CBCL) completed by study participants' parents. It remains to be determined whether GH treatment significantly impacts adaptation, psychosocial function, or quality of life in children with ISS.

Evaluation of a mental health outreach service for homeless families.

AIMS To describe the characteristics of homeless children and families seen by the mental health outreach service (MHOS), to evaluate the impact of this service on the short term psychosocial functioning of children and parents, and to establish perceptions of, and satisfaction with, the service. METHODS Twenty seven children from 23 families who were in receipt of the MHOS and 27 children from 23 families residing in other hostels where no such service was available were studied. The MHOS was delivered by a clinical nurse specialist with expertise in child mental health, who offered the following interventions: assessment and brief treatment of mental health disorders in children; liaison with agencies; and training of homeless centre staff. RESULTS Children in the experimental group had a significantly higher decrease in Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) total scores. Having received the intervention was the strongest predictor of improvement in SDQ total scores. There was no significant impact on parental mental health (General Health Questionnaire) scores. Homeless families and staff expressed high satisfaction with the MHOS. CONCLUSION This MHOS for homeless families is an innovative intervention which meets the complex and multiple needs of a vulnerable population unable to access mainstream mental health services. The primary objective of the service was to improve child mental health problems; however, the service developed in a responsive way by meeting social and practical needs of families in addition to its clinical role.

Endocrine regulation of human fetal growth: the role of the mother, placenta, and fetus.

The environment in which the fetus develops is critical for its survival and long-term health. The regulation of normal human fetal growth involves many multidirectional interactions between the mother, placenta, and fetus. The mother supplies nutrients and oxygen to the fetus via the placenta. The fetus influences the provision of maternal nutrients via the placental production of hormones that regulate maternal metabolism. The placenta is the site of exchange between mother and fetus and regulates fetal growth via the production and metabolism of growth-regulating hormones such as IGFs and glucocorticoids. Adequate trophoblast invasion in early pregnancy and increased uteroplacental blood flow ensure sufficient growth of the uterus, placenta, and fetus. The placenta may respond to fetal endocrine signals to increase transport of maternal nutrients by growth of the placenta, by activation of transport systems, and by production of placental hormones to influence maternal physiology and even behavior. There are consequences of poor fetal growth both in the short term and long term, in the form of increased mortality and morbidity. Endocrine regulation of fetal growth involves interactions between the mother, placenta, and fetus, and these effects may program long-term physiology.

Effects of treatment for intestinal helminth infection on growth and cognitive performance in children: systematic review of randomised trials.

OBJECTIVE To summarise the effects of anthelmintic drug treatment on growth and cognitive performance in children. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases: Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group controlled trial register, Cochrane controlled trials register, Embase, and Medline. Citations of all identified trials. Contact with the World Health Organization and field researchers. REVIEW METHODS Systematic review of randomised controlled trials in children aged 1-16 that compared anthelmintic treatment with placebo or no treatment. Assessment of validity and data abstraction conducted independently by two reviewers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Growth and cognitive performance. RESULTS Thirty randomised controlled trials in more than 15 000 children were identified. Effects on mean weight were unremarkable, and heterogeneity was evident in the results. There were some positive effects on mean weight change in the trials reporting this outcome: after a single dose (any anthelmintic) the pooled estimates were 0.24 kg (95% confidence interval 0.15 kg to 0. 32 kg; fixed effects model assumed) and 0.38 kg (0.01 kg to 0.77 kg; random effects model assumed). Results from trials of multiple doses showed mean weight change in up to one year of follow up of 0.10 kg (0.04 kg to 0.17 kg; fixed effects) or 0.15 kg (0.00 to 0.30; random effects). At more than one year of follow up, mean weight change was 0.12 kg (-0.02 kg to 0.26 kg; fixed effects) and 0.43 (-0.61 to 1. 47; random effects). Results from studies of cognitive performance were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS There is some limited evidence that routine treatment of children in areas where helminths are common has effects on weight gain, but this is not consistent between trials. There is insufficient evidence as to whether this intervention improves cognitive performance.

Care Seeking for Neonatal Illness in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND Despite recent achievements to reduce child mortality, neonatal deaths continue to remain high, accounting for 41% of all deaths in children under five years of age worldwide, of which over 90% occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Infections are a leading cause of death and limitations in care seeking for ill neonates contribute to high mortality rates. As estimates for care-seeking behaviors in LMICs have not been studied, this review describes care seeking for neonatal illnesses in LMICs, with particular attention to type of care sought. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted a systematic literature review of studies that reported the proportion of caregivers that sought care for ill or suspected ill neonates in LMICs. The initial search yielded 784 studies, of which 22 studies described relevant data from community household surveys, facility-based surveys, and intervention trials. The majority of studies were from South Asia (n = 17/22), set in rural areas (n = 17/22), and published within the last 4 years (n = 18/22). Of the 9,098 neonates who were ill or suspected to be ill, 4,320 caregivers sought some type of care, including care from a health facility (n = 370) or provider (n = 1,813). Care seeking ranged between 10% and 100% among caregivers with a median of 59%. Care seeking from a health care provider yielded a similar range and median, while care seeking at a health care facility ranged between 1% and 100%, with a median of 20%. Care-seeking estimates were limited by the few studies conducted in urban settings and regions other than South Asia. There was a lack of consistency regarding illness, care-seeking, and care provider definitions. CONCLUSIONS There is a paucity of data regarding newborn care-seeking behaviors; in South Asia, care seeking is low for newborn illness, especially in terms of care sought from health care facilities and medically trained providers. There is a need for representative data to describe care-seeking patterns in different geographic regions and better understand mechanisms to enhance care seeking during this vulnerable time period.