A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Summary Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Our goal was to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer's disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset or progression. METHODS: A stochastic, multistate model was used in conjunction with United Nations worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies of the risks of Alzheimer's disease. RESULTS: In 2006, the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease was 26.6 million. By 2050, the prevalence will quadruple, by which time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease. We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care, equivalent to that of a nursing home. If interventions could delay both disease onset and progression by a modest 1 year, there would be nearly 9.2 million fewer cases of the disease in 2050, with nearly the entire decline attributable to decreases in persons needing a high level of care. CONCLUSIONS: We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages. Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease can significantly reduce the global burden of this disease.

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study

Summary Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer's disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24·3 million people have dementia today, with 4·6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81·1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease S...

BACKGROUND: Reliable and timely information on the leading causes of death in populations, and how these are changing, is a crucial input into health policy debates. In the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), we aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex. METHODS: We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries. We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death. We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data. For 133 causes and three special aggregates we used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach, which uses four families of statistical models testing a large set of different models using different permutations of covariates. Model ensembles were developed from these component models. We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs. For 13 causes with low observed numbers of deaths, we developed negative binomial models with plausible covariates. For 27 causes for which death is rare, we modelled the higher level cause in the cause hierarchy of the GBD 2010 and then allocated deaths across component causes proportionately, estimated from all available data in the database. For selected causes (African trypanosomiasis, congenital syphilis, whooping cough, measles, typhoid and parathyroid, leishmaniasis, acute hepatitis E, and HIV/AIDS), we used natural history models based on information on incidence, prevalence, and case-fatality. We separately estimated cause fractions by aetiology for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and meningitis, as well as disaggregations by subcause for chronic kidney disease, maternal disorders, cirrhosis, and liver cancer. For deaths due to collective violence and natural disasters, we used mortality shock regressions. For every cause, we estimated 95% UIs that captured both parameter estimation uncertainty and uncertainty due to model specification where CODEm was used. We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. FINDINGS: In 2010, there were 52·8 million deaths globally. At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990. This decrease was largely due to decreases in mortality from diarrhoeal disease (from 2·5 to 1·4 million), lower respiratory infections (from 3·4 to 2·8 million), neonatal disorders (from 3·1 to 2·2 million), measles (from 0·63 to 0·13 million), and tetanus (from 0·27 to 0·06 million). Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006. Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010. Tuberculosis killed 1·2 million people in 2010. Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010. 8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990; 1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990. The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%). This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of death in 2010. Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications. YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17-28%. Regional variations in leading causes of death were substantial. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes still accounted for 76% of premature mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2010. Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders. For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted. INTERPRETATION: Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes remain the dominant causes of YLLs in sub-Saharan Africa. Overlaid on this general pattern of the epidemiological transition, marked regional variation exists in many causes, such as interpersonal violence, suicide, liver cancer, diabetes, cirrhosis, Chagas disease, African trypanosomiasis, melanoma, and others. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of sound epidemiological assessments of the causes of death on a regular basis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with myocardial infarction in 52 countries (the INTERHEART study): case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Although more than 80% of the global burden of cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries, knowledge of the importance of risk factors is largely derived from developed countries. Therefore, the effect of such factors on risk of coronary heart disease in most regions of the world is unknown. METHODS: We established a standardised case-control study of acute myocardial infarction in 52 countries, representing every inhabited continent. 15152 cases and 14820 controls were enrolled. The relation of smoking, history of hypertension or diabetes, waist/hip ratio, dietary patterns, physical activity, consumption of alcohol, blood apolipoproteins (Apo), and psychosocial factors to myocardial infarction are reported here. Odds ratios and their 99% CIs for the association of risk factors to myocardial infarction and their population attributable risks (PAR) were calculated. FINDINGS: Smoking (odds ratio 2.87 for current vs never, PAR 35.7% for current and former vs never), raised ApoB/ApoA1 ratio (3.25 for top vs lowest quintile, PAR 49.2% for top four quintiles vs lowest quintile), history of hypertension (1.91, PAR 17.9%), diabetes (2.37, PAR 9.9%), abdominal obesity (1.12 for top vs lowest tertile and 1.62 for middle vs lowest tertile, PAR 20.1% for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), psychosocial factors (2.67, PAR 32.5%), daily consumption of fruits and vegetables (0.70, PAR 13.7% for lack of daily consumption), regular alcohol consumption (0.91, PAR 6.7%), and regular physical activity (0.86, PAR 12.2%), were all significantly related to acute myocardial infarction (p<0.0001 for all risk factors and p=0.03 for alcohol). These associations were noted in men and women, old and young, and in all regions of the world. Collectively, these nine risk factors accounted for 90% of the PAR in men and 94% in women. INTERPRETATION: Abnormal lipids, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, abdominal obesity, psychosocial factors, consumption of fruits, vegetables, and alcohol, and regular physical activity account for most of the risk of myocardial infarction worldwide in both sexes and at all ages in all regions. This finding suggests that approaches to prevention can be based on similar principles worldwide and have the potential to prevent most premature cases of myocardial infarction.

A global view on the development of non communicable diseases.

For a long time non communicable diseases (NCDs) were discussed as burden of the developed world. Recent alarming data show a reverse trend and a dramatic increase of NCDs in the developing world, in particular in highly populated transition countries. This is true for the main mortality triggering diseases such as CVD, cancer or diabetes. Almost 4 out of 5 NCD based deaths happen in low- and middle income countries. This development is multi-factorial and is based on some main trends such as globalization, supermarket growth, rapid urbanization and increasingly sedentary lifestyles. The latter leads to overweight or obesity, which again promotes NCDs similar as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and elevated blood glucose. A high quality diet including functional food or functional ingredients, accompanied by physical activity and a non-smoking policy, is one of the most promising factors in primary and secondary prevention of NCDs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK.

Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations--the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8·5 million cases of diabetes, 5·7-7·3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492,000-669,000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by £1·9-2 billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The state of US health, 1990-2010: burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

IMPORTANCE: Understanding the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time is critical for informing national health policy. OBJECTIVES: To measure the burden of diseases, injuries, and leading risk factors in the United States from 1990 to 2010 and to compare these measurements with those of the 34 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. DESIGN: We used the systematic analysis of descriptive epidemiology of 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these diseases and injuries, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study to describe the health status of the United States and to compare US health outcomes with those of 34 OECD countries. Years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) were computed by multiplying the number of deaths at each age by a reference life expectancy at that age. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence (based on systematic reviews) by the disability weight (based on population-based surveys) for each sequela; disability in this study refers to any short- or long-term loss of health. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. Deaths and DALYs related to risk factors were based on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of exposure data and relative risks for risk-outcome pairs. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was used to summarize overall population health, accounting for both length of life and levels of ill health experienced at different ages. RESULTS: US life expectancy for both sexes combined increased from 75.2 years in 1990 to 78.2 years in 2010; during the same period, HALE increased from 65.8 years to 68.1 years. The diseases and injuries with the largest number of YLLs in 2010 were ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and road injury. Age-standardized YLL rates increased for Alzheimer disease, drug use disorders, chronic kidney disease, kidney cancer, and falls. The diseases with the largest number of YLDs in 2010 were low back pain, major depressive disorder, other musculoskeletal disorders, neck pain, and anxiety disorders. As the US population has aged, YLDs have comprised a larger share of DALYs than have YLLs. The leading risk factors related to DALYs were dietary risks, tobacco smoking, high body mass index, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, physical inactivity, and alcohol use. Among 34 OECD countries between 1990 and 2010, the US rank for the age-standardized death rate changed from 18th to 27th, for the age-standardized YLL rate from 23rd to 28th, for the age-standardized YLD rate from 5th to 6th, for life expectancy at birth from 20th to 27th, and for HALE from 14th to 26th. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: From 1990 to 2010, the United States made substantial progress in improving health. Life expectancy at birth and HALE increased, all-cause death rates at all ages decreased, and age-specific rates of years lived with disability remained stable. However, morbidity and chronic disability now account for nearly half of the US health burden, and improvements in population health in the United States have not kept pace with advances in population health in other wealthy nations.

Risk factors for ischaemic and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke in 22 countries (the INTERSTROKE study): a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of various risk factors to the burden of stroke worldwide is unknown, particularly in countries of low and middle income. We aimed to establish the association of known and emerging risk factors with stroke and its primary subtypes, assess the contribution of these risk factors to the burden of stroke, and explore the differences between risk factors for stroke and myocardial infarction. METHODS: We undertook a standardised case-control study in 22 countries worldwide between March 1, 2007, and April 23, 2010. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptoms onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls had no history of stroke, and were matched with cases for age and sex. All participants completed a structured questionnaire and a physical examination, and most provided blood and urine samples. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) for the association of all stroke, ischaemic stroke, and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke with selected risk factors. FINDINGS: In the first 3000 cases (n=2337, 78%, with ischaemic stroke; n=663, 22%, with intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke) and 3000 controls, significant risk factors for all stroke were: history of hypertension (OR 2.64, 99% CI 2.26-3.08; PAR 34.6%, 99% CI 30.4-39.1); current smoking (2.09, 1.75-2.51; 18.9%, 15.3-23.1); waist-to-hip ratio (1.65, 1.36-1.99 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26.5%, 18.8-36.0); diet risk score (1.35, 1.11-1.64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18.8%, 11.2-29.7); regular physical activity (0.69, 0.53-0.90; 28.5%, 14.5-48.5); diabetes mellitus (1.36, 1.10-1.68; 5.0%, 2.6-9.5); alcohol intake (1.51, 1.18-1.92 for more than 30 drinks per month or binge drinking; 3.8%, 0.9-14.4); psychosocial stress (1.30, 1.06-1.60; 4.6%, 2.1-9.6) and depression (1.35, 1.10-1.66; 5.2%, 2.7-9.8); cardiac causes (2.38, 1.77-3.20; 6.7%, 4.8-9.1); and ratio of apolipoproteins B to A1 (1.89, 1.49-2.40 for highest vs lowest tertile; 24.9%, 15.7-37.1). Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 88.1% (99% CI 82.3-92.2) of the PAR for all stroke. When an alternate definition of hypertension was used (history of hypertension or blood pressure >160/90 mm Hg), the combined PAR was 90.3% (85.3-93.7) for all stroke. These risk factors were all significant for ischaemic stroke, whereas hypertension, smoking, waist-to-hip ratio, diet, and alcohol intake were significant risk factors for intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that ten risk factors are associated with 90% of the risk of stroke. Targeted interventions that reduce blood pressure and smoking, and promote physical activity and a healthy diet, could substantially reduce the burden of stroke. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Pfizer Cardiovascular Award, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Projected Impact of Risk Factor Reduction on Alzheimer's Disease Prevalence

There are currently approximately 33.9 million individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) worldwide, and prevalence is expected to triple over the next 40 years. The goal of this review was to summarize the evidence regarding seven potentially modifiable AD risk factors: diabetes, mid-life hypertension, mid-life obesity, smoking, depression, low educational attainment and physical inactivity. In addition, we projected the impact of risk factor reduction on AD prevalence by calculating population attributable risks (PARs, the percent of cases attributable to a given factor) and the number of AD cases that could potentially be prevented by 10% and 25% risk factor reductions worldwide and in the US. Together, these factors contributed to up to half of AD cases globally (17.2 million) and in the US (2.9 million). A 10%–25% reduction in all seven risk factors could potentially prevent as many as 1.1–3.0 million cases worldwide and 184,000–492,000 cases in the US.

Epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia in China, 1990-2010: a systematic review and analysis.

BACKGROUND: China is increasingly facing the challenge of control of the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. We assessed the epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia in China between 1990, and 2010, to improve estimates of the burden of disease, analyse time trends, and inform health policy decisions relevant to China's rapidly ageing population. METHODS: In our systematic review we searched for reports of Alzheimer's disease or dementia in China, published in Chinese and English between 1990 and 2010. We searched China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, and PubMed databases. Two investigators independently assessed case definitions of Alzheimer's disease and dementia: we excluded studies that did not use internationally accepted case definitions. We also excluded reviews and viewpoints, studies with no numerical estimates, and studies not done in mainland China. We used Poisson regression and UN demographic data to estimate the prevalence (in nine age groups), incidence, and standardised mortality ratio of dementia and its subtypes in China in 1990, 2000, and 2010. FINDINGS: Our search returned 12,642 reports, of which 89 met the inclusion criteria (75 assessed prevalence, 13 incidence, and nine mortality). In total, the included studies had 340,247 participants, in which 6357 cases of Alzheimer's disease were recorded. 254,367 people were assessed for other forms of dementia, of whom 3543 had vascular dementia, frontotemporal dementia, or Lewy body dementia. In 1990 the prevalence of all forms of dementia was 1·8% (95% CI 0·0-44·4) at 65-69 years, and 42·1% (0·0-88·9) at age 95-99 years. In 2010 prevalence was 2·6% (0·0-28·2) at age 65-69 years and 60·5% (39·7-81·3) at age 95-99 years. The number of people with dementia in China was 3·68 million (95% CI 2·22-5·14) in 1990, 5·62 million (4·42-6·82) in 2000, and 9·19 million (5·92-12·48) in 2010. In the same period, the number of people with Alzheimer's disease was 1·93 million (1·15-2·71) in 1990, 3·71 million (2·84-4·58) people in 2000, and 5·69 million (3·85-7·53) in 2010. The incidence of dementia was 9·87 cases per 1000 person-years, that of Alzheimer's disease was 6·25 cases per 1000 person-years, that of vascular dementia was 2·42 cases per 1000 person-years, and that of other rare forms of dementia was 0·46 cases per 1000 person-years. We retrieved mortality data for 1032 people with dementia and 20,157 healthy controls, who were followed up for 3-7 years. The median standardised mortality ratio was 1·94:1 (IQR 1·74-2·45). INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that previous estimates of dementia burden, based on smaller datasets, might have underestimated the burden of dementia in China. The burden of dementia seems to be increasing faster than is generally assumed by the international health community. Rapid and effective government responses are needed to tackle dementia in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Nossal Institute of Global Health (University of Melbourne, Australia), the National 12th Five-Year Major Projects of China, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia-China Exchange Fellowship, Importation and Development of High-Calibre Talents Project of Beijing Municipal Institutions, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

Background People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Methods Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. Results The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

Ranking the disease burden of 14 pathogens in food sources in the United States using attribution data from outbreak investigations and expert elic...

Understanding the relative public health impact of major microbiological hazards across the food supply is critical for a risk-based national food safety system. This study was conducted to estimate the U.S. health burden of 14 major pathogens in 12 broad categories of food and to then rank the resulting 168 pathogen-food combinations. These pathogens examined were Campylobacter, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Salmonella enterica, Toxoplasma gondii, and all other FoodNet pathogens. The health burden associated with each pathogen was measured using new estimates of the cost of illness and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from acute and chronic illness and mortality. A new method for attributing illness to foods was developed that relies on both outbreak data and expert elicitation. This method assumes that empirical data are generally preferable to expert judgment; thus, outbreak data were used for attribution except where evidence suggests that these data are considered not representative of food attribution. Based on evaluation of outbreak data, expert elicitation, and published scientific literature, outbreak-based attribution estimates for Campylobacter, Toxoplasma, Cryptosporidium, and Yersinia were determined not representative; therefore, expert-based attribution were included for these four pathogens. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of attribution data assumptions on rankings. Disease burden was concentrated among a relatively small number of pathogen-food combinations. The top 10 pairs were responsible for losses of over $8 billion and 36,000 QALYs, or more than 50 % of the total across all pairs. Across all 14 pathogens, poultry, pork, produce, and complex foods were responsible for nearly 60 % of the total cost of illness and loss of QALYs.

Global study of women's experiences of premenstrual symptoms and their effects on daily life.

OBJECTIVES: To determine cross-cultural and other effects on women's experiences of premenstrual symptoms and their impact on activities of daily life (ADL). STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. Sample A total of 7226 women aged 15-49 recruited by random sampling with approximately 400 each from France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain, UK, Brazil, Mexico, Hong Kong, Pakistan and Thailand. Approximately 1000 women in Japan and Korea and 500 Australian women were found using Internet panels. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Questionnaire of 23 premenstrual symptoms, sociodemographic and lifestyle variables, ADL and women's knowledge of premenstrual terms. RESULTS: The most prevalent symptoms were abdominal bloating, cramps or abdominal pain, irritability, mastalgia and joint/muscle/back pains. Severity of symptoms was directly proportional to duration (number of affected cycles) (R = 0.78). A linear model found that symptom prevalence (duration × severity) was associated with age (linear and quadratic effects), parity, current smoking and country. Premenstrual physical and mental symptom domains had similar negative effects on ADL. Impact on ADL was affected by education and exercise participation. Women's knowledge of the terms premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) varied by symptom intensity, age, education and country. CONCLUSIONS: Four of the five most prevalent premenstrual symptoms were physical. There was a great deal of similarities of women's experiences of these symptoms across countries and regions. Women's knowledge of PMS terms is highly dependent on the country in which they live.

Use of statistics to assess the global burden of breast cancer.

A variety of statistics are used to quantify the burden (occurrence and outcome) of cancer generally and of breast cancer specifically. When undertaking any cancer control program, understanding these statistics, their source, and their quality is important for assessing the current situation, allocating resources to different control strategies, and evaluating progress. Two core statistics are the cancer incidence rate and the cancer mortality rate, which provide estimates of the average risk of acquiring and of dying from the disease, respectively. About 16% of the world's population is covered by registration systems that produce cancer incidence statistics, while mortality data are available for about 29%. Breast cancer incidence and mortality vary considerably by world region. In general, the incidence is high (greater than 80 per 100,000) in developed regions of the world and low (less than 30 per 100,000), though increasing, in developing regions; the range of mortality rates is much less (approximately 6-23 per 100,000) because of the more favorable survival of breast cancer in (high-incidence) developed regions. The incidence of breast cancer is increasing almost everywhere. This unfavorable trend is due in part to increases in risk factors (decreased childbearing and breast-feeding, increased exogenous hormone exposure, and detrimental dietary and lifestyle changes, including obesity and less physical activity). On the other hand, mortality is now decreasing in many high-risk countries due to a combination of intensified early detection efforts and the introduction of mammographic screening, resulting in the diagnosis of more small, early stage tumors, and advances in treatment.

Long-Term Changes in Adiposity and Glycemic Control Are Associated With Past Adenovirus Infection

OBJECTIVE Ad36, a human adenovirus, increases adiposity but improves glycemic control in animal models. Similarly, natural Ad36 infection is cross-sectionally associated with greater adiposity and better glycemic control in humans. This study compared longitudinal observations in indices of adiposity (BMI and body fat percentage) and glycemic control (fasting glucose and insulin) in Ad36-infected versus uninfected adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Baseline sera from Hispanic men and women (n = 1,400) were screened post hoc for the presence of Ad36-specific antibodies. Indices of adiposity and glycemic control at baseline and at ∼10 years past the baseline were compared between seropositive and seronegative subjects, with adjustment for age and sex. In addition to age and sex, indices of glycemic control were adjusted for baseline BMI and were analyzed only for nondiabetic subjects. RESULTS Seropositive subjects (14.5%) had greater adiposity at baseline, compared with seronegative subjects. Longitudinally, seropositive subjects showed greater adiposity indices but lower fasting insulin levels. Subgroup analyses revealed that Ad36-seropositivity was associated with better baseline glycemic control and lower fasting insulin levels over time in the normal-weight group (BMI ≤25 kg/m2) and longitudinally, with greater adiposity in the overweight (BMI 25–30 kg/m2) and obese (BMI >30 kg/m2) men. Statistically, the differences between seropositive and seronegative individuals were modest in light of the multiple tests performed. CONCLUSIONS This study strengthens the plausibility that in humans, Ad36 increases adiposity and attenuates deterioration of glycemic control. Panoptically, the study raises the possibility that certain infections may modulate obesity or diabetes risk. A comprehensive understanding of these under-recognized factors is needed to effectively combat such metabolic disorders.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global B...

BACKGROUND: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. METHODS: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. INTERPRETATION: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Globalization, diet, and health: an example from Tonga.

The increased flow of goods, people, and ideas associated with globalization have contributed to an increase in noncommunicable diseases in much of the world. One response has been to encourage lifestyle changes with educational programmes, thus controlling the lifestyle-related disease. Key assumptions with this approach are that people's food preferences are linked to their consumption patterns, and that consumption patterns can be transformed through educational initiatives. To investigate these assumptions, and policies that derive from it, we undertook a broad-based survey of food-related issues in the Kingdom of Tonga using a questionnaire. Data on the relationships between food preferences, perception of nutritional value, and frequency of consumption were gathered for both traditional and imported foods. The results show that the consumption of health-compromising imported foods was unrelated either to food preferences or to perceptions of nutritional value, and suggests that diet-related diseases may not be amenable to interventions based on education campaigns. Given recent initiatives towards trade liberalization and the creation of the World Trade Organization, tariffs or import bans may not serve as alternative measures to control consumption. This presents significant challenges to health policy-makers serving economically marginal populations and suggests that some population health concerns cannot be adequately addressed without awareness of the effects of global trade.

Dietary fat types and 4-year cognitive change in community-dwelling older women

Objective To relate dietary fat types to cognitive change in healthy community-based elders. Methods Among 6,183 older participants in the Women’s Health Study, we related intake of major fatty acids (FAs) (saturated [SFA], mono-unsaturated [MUFA], total poly-unsaturated [PUFA], trans-unsaturated) to late-life cognitive trajectory. Serial cognitive testing, conducted over 4 years, began 5 years post-dietary assessment. Primary outcomes were global cognition (averaging tests of general cognition, verbal memory and semantic fluency) and verbal memory (averaging tests of recall). We used analyses of response profiles and logistic regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted differences in cognitive trajectory and risk of worst cognitive change (worst 10%) by fat intake. Results Higher SFA intake was associated with worse global cognitive (p-linear-trend=0.008) and verbal memory (p-linear-trend=0.01) trajectories. There was a higher risk of worst cognitive change, comparing highest vs. lowest SFA quintiles: the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval, CI) was 1.64 (1.04,2.58) for global cognition and 1.65 (1.04,2.61) for verbal memory. By contrast, higher MUFA intake was related to better global cognitive (p-linear-trend<0.001) and verbal memory (p-linear-trend=0.009) trajectories, and lower OR (95% CI) of worst cognitive change in global cognition (0.52 [0.31,0.88]) and verbal memory (0.56 [0.34,0.94]). Total fat, PUFA, and trans fat intakes were not associated with cognitive trajectory. Interpretation Higher SFA intake was associated with worse global cognitive and verbal memory trajectories, while higher MUFA intake was related to better trajectories. Thus, different consumption levels of the major specific fat types, rather than total fat intake itself, appeared to influence cognitive aging.

Latest insights into the risk of cancer in diabetes

A growing body of evidence from observational studies and meta-analyses of the data suggest that diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of cancer. Meta-analyses have shown that diabetes increases the risks of total cancer, and of site-specific cancers of the breast, endometrium, bladder, liver, colorectum and pancreas, and that it decreases the risk of prostate cancer. Insulin resistance and secondary hyperinsulinemia is the most frequently proposed hypothesis, and hyperglycemia itself might promote carcinogenesis. In addition to several facets of lifestyle including obesity, smoking and lack of exercise, treatment for diabetes might affect the risk of cancer. For instance, metformin, an insulin sensitizer, reportedly has a potential anticancer effect. In light of the exploding global epidemic of diabetes, even a modest increase in the cancer risk will translate into a substantial socioeconomic burden. The current insights underscore the need for clinical attention and better-designed studies of the complex interactions between diabetes and cancer.

Why the Bush administration and the global sugar industry are determined to demolish the 2004 WHO global strategy on diet, physical activity and he...

OBJECTIVE: To indicate why the world's most powerful nation state and one powerful sector of the food and drink production and manufacturing industry are determined to demolish the 2004 WHO (World Health Organization) global strategy on diet, physical activity and health, and to disassociate it from the 2003 WHO/FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) expert report on diet, nutrition and the prevention of chronic diseases, which with its background papers is the immediate scientific basis for the strategy. To encourage representatives of nation states at the 2004 WHO World Health Assembly to support the strategy together with the report, so that the strategy is explicit and quantified, and responds to the need expressed by member states at the 2002 World Health Assembly. This is for an effective global strategy to prevent and control chronic diseases whose prevalence is increased by nutrient-poor food low in vegetables and fruits and high in energy-dense fatty, sugary and/or salty foods and drinks and also by physical inactivity. Of these diseases, obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancers of several sites are now the chief causes of morbidity and mortality in most countries in the world. METHOD: A summary of the global strategy and its roots in scientific knowledge accumulated over the last half-century. Reasons why the global strategy and the expert report are opposed by the current US government and the world sugar industry, with some reference to modern historical context. A summary of the trajectory of the global strategy since its first draft made in early 2003, and a further summary of its weaknesses, strengths and potential. CONCLUSION: The 2004 WHO global strategy and the 2003 WHO/FAO expert report are perceived by the current US administration as an impediment to US trade and international policy, within a general context of current US government hostility to the UN (United Nations) system as a brake on the exercise of its power as the world's dominant nation. Policy-makers throughout the world should be aware of the contexts of current pressures put on them by powerful nation states and sectors of industry whose ideologies and commercial interests are challenged by international initiatives designed to improve public health and to leave a better legacy for future generations.

Risk factors for myocardial infarction in women and men: insights from the INTERHEART study.

AIMS: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a leading cause of death among men and women globally. Women develop CHD about 10 years later than men, yet the reasons for this are unclear. The purpose of this report is to determine if differences in risk factor distributions exist between women and men across various age categories to help explain why women develop acute MI later than men. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used the INTERHEART global case-control study including 27 098 participants from 52 countries, 6787 of whom were women. The median age of first acute MI was higher in women than men (65 vs. 56 years; P < 0.0001). Nine modifiable risk factors were associated with MI in women and men. Hypertension [2.95(2.66 -3.28) vs. 2.32(2.16-2.48)], diabetes [4.26(3.68-4.94) vs. 2.67(2.43-2.94), physical activity [0.48(0.41-0.57) vs. 0.77(0.71-0.83)], and moderate alcohol use [0.41(0.34-0.50) vs. 0.88(0.82-0.94)] were more strongly associated with MI among women than men. The association of abnormal lipids, current smoking, abdominal obesity, high risk diet, and psychosocial stress factors with MI was similar in women and men. Risk factors associations were generally stronger among younger individuals compared to older women and men. The population attributable risk (PAR) of all nine risk factors exceeded 94%, and was similar among women and men (96 vs. 93%). Men were significantly more likely to suffer a MI prior to 60 years of age than were women, however, after adjusting for levels of risk factors, the sex difference in the probability of MI cases occurring before the age of 60 years was reduced by more than 80%. CONCLUSION: Women experience their first acute MI on average 9 years later than men. Nine modifiable risk factors are significantly associated with acute MI in both men and women and explain greater than 90% of the PAR. The difference in age of first MI is largely explained by the higher risk factor levels at younger ages in men compared to women.

A Multicountry Ecological Study of Cancer Incidence Rates in 2008 with Respect to Various Risk-Modifying Factors

Observational and ecological studies are generally used to determine the presence of effect of cancer risk-modifying factors. Researchers generally agree that environmental factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, lack of physical activity, and low serum 25-hdyroxyvitamin D levels are important cancer risk factors. This ecological study used age-adjusted incidence rates for 21 cancers for 157 countries (87 with high-quality data) in 2008 with respect to dietary supply and other factors, including per capita gross domestic product, life expectancy, lung cancer incidence rate (an index for smoking), and latitude (an index for solar ultraviolet-B doses). The factors found to correlate strongly with multiple types of cancer were lung cancer (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer), energy derived from animal products (direct correlation with 12 types of cancer, inverse with two), latitude (direct correlation with six types, inverse correlation with three), and per capita gross national product (five types). Life expectancy and sweeteners directly correlated with three cancers, animal fat with two, and alcohol with one. Consumption of animal products correlated with cancer incidence with a lag time of 15–25 years. Types of cancer which correlated strongly with animal product consumption, tended to correlate weakly with latitude; this occurred for 11 cancers for the entire set of countries. Regression results were somewhat different for the 87 high-quality country data set and the 157-country set. Single-country ecological studies have inversely correlated nearly all of these cancers with solar ultraviolet-B doses. These results can provide guidance for prevention of cancer.

Diet, lifestyle, and the etiology of coronary artery disease: the Cornell China study.

Investigators collected and analyzed mortality data for >50 diseases, including 7 different cancers, from 65 counties and 130 villages in rural mainland China. Blood, urine, food samples, and detailed dietary data were collected from 50 adults in each village and analyzed for a variety of nutritional, viral, hormonal, and toxic chemical factors. In rural China, fat intake was less than half that in the United States, and fiber intake was 3 times higher. Animal protein intake was very low, only about 10% of the US intake. Mean serum total cholesterol was 127 mg/dL in rural China versus 203 mg/dL for adults aged 20-74 years in the United States. Coronary artery disease mortality was 16.7-fold greater for US men and 5.6-fold greater for US women than for their Chinese counterparts. The combined coronary artery disease mortality rates for both genders in rural China were inversely associated with the frequency of intake of green vegetables and plasma erythrocyte monounsaturated fatty acids, but positively associated with a combined index of salt intake plus urinary sodium and plasma apolipoprotein B. These apolipoproteins, in turn, are positively associated with animal protein intake and the frequency of meat intake and inversely associated with plant protein, legume, and light-colored vegetable intake. Rates of other diseases were also correlated with dietary factors. There was no evidence of a threshold beyond which further benefits did not accrue with increasing proportions of plant-based foods in the diet.

NOW AND THEN: The Global Nutrition Transition: The Pandemic of Obesity in Developing Countries

Decades ago discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. Diets in the 1970’s began to shift toward increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away from home intake and greater use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reduced physical activity and increased sedentary time was seen also. These changes began in the early 1990-‘s in the low and middle income world but did not become clearly recognized until diabetes, hypertension and obesity began to dominate the globe. Urban and rural areas from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia’s poorest countries to the higher income ones are shown to have experienced rapid increases in overweight and obesity status. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are documented. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy shifts are being explored in a few countries; however despite the major health challenges faced, few countries are serious in addressing prevention of the dietary challenges faced.

The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Three: a global synthesis.

This ISAAC Phase Three synthesis provides summarised information on the main findings of the study, regional tables and figures related to the prevalence and severity of current symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the main regions of the world. The large number of surveyed children (≈1,200,000), the large number of centres (233) and countries (98) that participated in ISAAC Phase Three makes this study the most comprehensive survey of these diseases ever undertaken. Globally, the prevalence for current asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the 13-14-year age group was 14.1%, 14.6% and 7.3%, respectively. In the 6-7-year age group the prevalence for current asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema was 11.7%, 8.5% and 7.9%, respectively. The study shows a wide variability in the prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema which occurs not just between regions and countries but between centres in the same country and centres in the same city. This study definitively establishes that the prevalence of those diseases can be very high in non-affluent centres with low socioeconomic conditions. The large variability also suggests a crucial role of local environment characteristics to determine the differences in prevalence between one place and another. Thus, ISAAC Phase Three has provided a large body of epidemiological information on asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in childhood from contrasting environments which is expected to yield new clues about the aetiology of those conditions and reasons for their marked global variability. Copyright © 2012 SEICAP. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The Tromsø Heart Study: distribution of, and determinants for, gamma-glutamyltransferase in a free-living population.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) was measured in 1579 men, aged 20-54 years, and 1654 women, aged 20-49 years, screened for coronary risk factors. The distribution was right-skewed with medians 15 and 10 U/l for men and women, respectively. Less than 3.8% of the men and 0.8% of the women had GGT greater than or equal to 50 U/l. The low level of GGT matched well with the low mortality of cirrhosis and the modest use of alcohol in Norway. Multiple regression analysis for each sex showed a strong positive association with body mass index, use of alcohol and, unexpectedly, a negative association with coffee consumption, whereas serum triglycerides and the time since the last meal showed a weaker positive association. In women, use of oral contraceptives was positively associated with GGT.

Association of Adenovirus 36 Infection with Obesity and Metabolic Markers in Humans: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Background Several studies have shown that Adenovirus 36 (Ad36) influences the risk of obesity in humans. Clarifying the relationship between Ad36 infection and obesity could lead to more effective approaches for the management of obesity. The objective of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis to confirm the influence of Ad36 infection on obesity and metabolic markers. Methodology/Principal Findings We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library for pertinent articles (including their references) published between 1951 and April 22, 2012. Only English language reports of original observational studies were included in this meta-analysis. Data extraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) and pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using the random effects model. Of 237 potentially relevant studies, 10 cross-sectional studies (n = 2,870) conformed to the selection criteria. Pooled analysis showed that the WMD for BMI of Ad36 infection compared with non-infection was 3.19 (95% CI 1.44–4.93; P<0.001). Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies of adults yielded a similar result of 3.18 (95% CI 0.78–5.57; P = 0.009). The increased risk of obesity associated with Ad36 infection was also significant (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.01–3.56; P = 0.047). No significant differences were found in relation to total cholesterol (P = 0.83), triglycerides (P = 0.64), HDL (P = 0.69), blood glucose (P = 0.08), waist circumstance (P = 0.09), and systolic blood pressure (P = 0.25). Conclusion/Significance Ad36 infection was associated with the risk of obesity and weight gain, but was not associated with abnormal metabolic markers including waist circumstance. It suggests that Ad36 infection is more associated with accumulation of subcutaneous fat than that of visceral fat. The relationship between Ad36 and obesity should be assessed by further studies, including well-designed prospective studies, to gain a better understanding of whether Ad36 plays a role in the etiology of human obesity.

The burden of childhood asthma

Paediatric asthma is a major clinical concern worldwide and represents a huge burden on family and society. It accounts for a large number of lost school days and may deprive the child of both academic achievement and social interaction. Childhood asthma also places strain on healthcare resources as a result of doctor and hospital visits and the cost of treatment. The prevalence of asthma varies worldwide, possibly because of different exposure to respiratory infection, indoor and outdoor pollution, and diet. Certain risk factors appear to predispose children to developing asthma and atopic disease, including incidence and severity of wheezing, atopy, maternal smoking, and number of fever episodes. This paper discusses the burden, prevalence, and risk factors associated with paediatric asthma.

Overcrowding stress decreases macrophage activity and increases Salmonella Enteritidis invasion in broiler chickens.

Overcrowding stress is a reality in the poultry industry. Chickens exposed to long-term stressful situations present a reduction of welfare and immunosuppression. We designed this experiment to analyse the effects from overcrowding stress of 16 birds/m(2) on performance parameters, serum corticosterone levels, the relative weight of the bursa of Fabricius, plasma IgA and IgG levels, intestinal integrity, macrophage activity and experimental Salmonella Enteritidis invasion. The results of this study indicate that overcrowding stress decreased performance parameters, induced enteritis and decreased macrophage activity and the relative bursa weight in broiler chickens. When the chickens were similarly stressed and infected with Salmonella Enteritidis, there was an increase in feed conversion and a decrease in plasma IgG levels in the stressed and Salmonella-infected birds. We observed moderate enteritis throughout the duodenum of chickens stressed and infected with Salmonella. The overcrowding stress decreased the macrophage phagocytosis intensity and increased Salmonella Enteritidis counts in the livers of birds challenged with the pathogenic bacterium. Overcrowding stress via the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis that is associated with an increase in corticosterone and enteritis might influence the quality of the intestinal immune barrier and the integrity of the small intestine. This effect allowed pathogenic bacteria to migrate through the intestinal mucosa, resulting in inflammatory infiltration and decreased nutrient absorption. The data strengthen the hypothesis that control of the welfare of chickens and avoidance of stress from overcrowding in poultry production are relevant factors for the maintenance of intestinal integrity, performance and decreased susceptibility to Salmonella infection.

Diet Contributes Significantly to the Body Burden of PBDEs in the General U.S. Population

Background Exposure of the U.S. population to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) is thought to be via exposure to dust and diet. However, little work has been done to empirically link body burdens of these compounds to either route of exposure. Objectives The primary goal of this research was to evaluate the dietary contribution to PBDE body burdens in the United States by linking serum levels to food intake. Methods We used two dietary instruments—a 24-hr food recall (24FR) and a 1-year food frequency questionnaire (FFQ)—to examine food intake among participants of the 2003–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We regressed serum concentrations of five PBDEs (BDE congeners 28, 47, 99, 100, and 153) and their sum (∑PBDE) against diet variables while adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, and body mass index. Results ∑PBDE serum concentrations among vegetarians were 23% (p = 0.006) and 27% (p = 0.009) lower than among omnivores for 24FR and 1-year FFQ, respectively. Serum levels of five PBDE congeners were associated with consumption of poultry fat: Low, medium, and high intake corresponded to geometric mean ∑PBDE concentrations of 40.6, 41.9, and 48.3 ng/g lipid, respectively (p = 0.0005). We observed similar trends for red meat fat, which were statistically significant for BDE-100 and BDE-153. No association was observed between serum PBDEs and consumption of dairy or fish. Results were similar for both dietary instruments but were more robust using 24FR. Conclusions Intake of contaminated poultry and red meat contributes significantly to PBDE body burdens in the United States.

Short- and long-term morbidity and mortality in the population exposed to dioxin after the "Seveso accident".

The early effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-para-dioxin (TCDD) exposure in the population involved in the Seveso, Italy, incident in 1976, have been examined in numerous studies. Chloracne was the only effect linked with sufficient certainty to dioxin exposure. The possible long-term consequences were investigated with mortality and cancer incidence studies. Mortality and morbidity findings during the 20-year period following the accident showed increased risk from lymphoemopoietic neoplasm, digestive system cancer (rectum in males, and biliary tract among females, in particular) and respiratory system cancer (lung, among males). In the incidence analyses, also thyroid gland and pleura cancer appeared suggestively increased. Soft tissue sarcomas showed an increase in the largest, yet least exposed, exposure sub-cohort. Several hypotheses associating non-cancer effects with dioxin exposure were corroborated by findings in the Seveso population: this was the case with cardiovascular effects (possibly linked to both chemical exposure and stressful disaster experience), endocrine effects (diabetes among females) and reproductive effects: exposure of men to TCDD was linked to a lowered male/female sex ratio in their offspring. The results of many Seveso studies point to possible gender effects, in accordance with animal models. Notwithstanding the acknowledged study limitations (lack of individual exposure markers, short latency, and small population size for certain cancer types), results of previous experimental and epidemiological studies, along with mechanistic knowledge on dioxin toxicity, support the hypotheses that the observed excesses might be associated with dioxin exposure. The mortality and cancer incidence follow-up of the Seveso cohort are continuing.

The combined effects of healthy lifestyle behaviors on all cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Lifestyle factors are related to mortality. Although much is known about the impact of single factors, the current evidence about the combined effects of lifestyle behaviors on mortality has not yet been systematically compiled. METHOD: We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, and Somed up to February 2012. Prospective studies were selected if they reported the combined effects of at least three of five lifestyle factors (obesity, alcohol consumption, smoking, diet, and physical activity). The mean effect sizes that certain numbers of combined lifestyle factors have on mortality were compared to the group with the least number of healthy lifestyle factors by meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the robustness of the results. RESULTS: 21 studies (18 cohorts) met the inclusion criteria of which 15 were included in the meta-analysis that comprised 531,804 people with a mean follow-up of 13.24 years. The relative risks decreased proportionate to a higher number of healthy lifestyle factors for all cause mortality. A combination of at least four healthy lifestyle factors is associated with a reduction of the all cause mortality risk by 66% (95% confidence interval 58%-73%). CONCLUSION: Adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of mortality. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cigarette Smoking and Pancreatic Cancer: A Pooled Analysis From the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium

Smoking is an established risk factor for pancreatic cancer; however, detailed examination of the association of smoking intensity, smoking duration, and cumulative smoking dose with pancreatic cancer is limited. The authors analyzed pooled data from the international Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium nested case-control study (1,481 cases, 1,539 controls). Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression. Smoking intensity effects were examined with an excess odds ratio model that was linear in pack-years and exponential in cigarettes smoked per day and its square. When compared with never smokers, current smokers had a significantly elevated risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.38, 2.26). Risk increased significantly with greater intensity (≥30 cigarettes/day: OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.27, 2.42), duration (≥50 years: OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.25, 3.62), and cumulative smoking dose (≥40 pack-years: OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.35, 2.34). Risk more than 15 years after smoking cessation was similar to that for never smokers. Estimates of excess odds ratio per pack-year declined with increasing intensity, suggesting greater risk for total exposure delivered at lower intensity for longer duration than for higher intensity for shorter duration. This finding and the decline in risk after smoking cessation suggest that smoking has a late-stage effect on pancreatic carcinogenesis.

The economic burden of dry eye disease in the United States: a decision tree analysis.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual cost of managing dry eye disease (DED) in the United States from a societal and a payer's perspective. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the annual cost for managing a cohort of patients with dry eye with differing severity of symptoms and treatment. The direct costs included ocular lubricants, cyclosporine, punctal plugs, physician visits, and nutritional supplements. The indirect costs were measured as the productivity loss because of absenteeism and presenteeism. The model was populated with data that were obtained from surveys that were completed by dry eye sufferers who were recruited from online databases. Sensitivity analyses were employed to evaluate the impact of changes in parameters on the estimation of costs. All costs were converted to 2008 US dollars. RESULTS: Survey data were collected from 2171 respondents with DED. Our analysis indicated that the average annual cost of managing a patient with dry eye at $783 (variation, $757-$809) from the payers' perspective. When adjusted to the prevalence of DED nationwide, the overall burden of DED for the US healthcare system would be $3.84 billion. From a societal perspective, the average cost of managing DED was estimated to be $11,302 per patient and $55.4 billion to the US society overall. CONCLUSIONS: DED poses a substantial economic burden on the payer and on the society. These findings may provide valuable information for health plans or employers regarding budget estimation.

Sociodemographic and Lifestyle Statistics of Oldest Old People (>80 Years) Living in Ikaria Island: The Ikaria Study

Background. There are places around the world where people live longer and they are active past the age of 100 years, sharing common behavioral characteristics; these places (i.e., Sardinia in Italy, Okinawa in Japan, Loma Linda in California and Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica) have been named the “Blue Zones”. Recently it was reported that people in Ikaria Island, Greece, have also one of the highest life expectancies in the world, and joined the “Blue Zones”. The aim of this work work was to evaluate various demographic, lifestyle and psychological characteristics of very old (>80 years) people participated in Ikaria Study. Methods. During 2009, 1420 people (aged 30+) men and women from Ikaria Island, Greece, were voluntarily enrolled in the study. For this work, 89 males and 98 females over the age of 80 yrs were studied (13% of the sample). Socio-demographic, clinical, psychological and lifestyle characteristics were assessed using standard questionnaires and procedures. Results. A large proportion of the Ikaria Study's sample was over the age of 80; moreover, the percent of people over 90 were much higher than the European population average. The majority of the oldest old participants reported daily physical activities, healthy eating habits, avoidance of smoking, frequent socializing, mid-day naps and extremely low rates of depression. Conclusion. Modifiable risk factors, such as physical activity, diet, smoking cessation and mid-day naps, might depict the “secrets” of the long-livers; these findings suggest that the interaction of environmental, behavioral together with clinical characteristics may determine longevity. This concept must be further explored in order to understand how these factors relate and which are the most important in shaping prolonged life.

The diet and 15-year death rate in the seven countries study.

In 15 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, comprising 11,579 men aged 40-59 years and "healthy" at entry, 2,288 died in 15 years. Death rates differed among cohorts. Differences in mean age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and smoking habits "explained" 46% of variance in death rate from all causes, 80% from coronary heart disease, 35% from cancer, and 45% from stroke. Death rate differences were unrelated to cohort differences in mean relative body weight, fatness, and physical activity. The cohorts differed in average diets. Death rates were related positively to average percentage of dietary energy from saturated fatty acids, negatively to dietary energy percentage from monounsaturated fatty acids, and were unrelated to dietary energy percentage from polyunsaturated fatty acids, proteins, carbohydrates, and alcohol. All death rates were negatively related to the ratio of monounsaturated to saturated fatty acids. Inclusion of that ratio with age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and smoking habits as independent variables accounted for 85% of variance in rates of deaths from all causes, 96% coronary heart disease, 55% cancer, and 66% stroke. Oleic acid accounted for almost all differences in monounsaturates among cohorts. All-cause and coronary heart disease death rates were low in cohorts with olive oil as the main fat. Causal relationships are not claimed but consideration of characteristics of populations as well as of individuals within populations is urged in evaluating risks.

The Preventable Causes of Death in the United States: Comparative Risk Assessment of Dietary, Lifestyle, and Metabolic Risk Factors

Background Knowledge of the number of deaths caused by risk factors is needed for health policy and priority setting. Our aim was to estimate the mortality effects of the following 12 modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors in the United States (US) using consistent and comparable methods: high blood glucose, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and blood pressure; overweight–obesity; high dietary trans fatty acids and salt; low dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids (seafood), and fruits and vegetables; physical inactivity; alcohol use; and tobacco smoking. Methods and Findings We used data on risk factor exposures in the US population from nationally representative health surveys and disease-specific mortality statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. We obtained the etiological effects of risk factors on disease-specific mortality, by age, from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies that had adjusted (i) for major potential confounders, and (ii) where possible for regression dilution bias. We estimated the number of disease-specific deaths attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factor exposure, by age and sex. In 2005, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure were responsible for an estimated 467,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 436,000–500,000) and 395,000 (372,000–414,000) deaths, accounting for about one in five or six deaths in US adults. Overweight–obesity (216,000; 188,000–237,000) and physical inactivity (191,000; 164,000–222,000) were each responsible for nearly 1 in 10 deaths. High dietary salt (102,000; 97,000–107,000), low dietary omega-3 fatty acids (84,000; 72,000–96,000), and high dietary trans fatty acids (82,000; 63,000–97,000) were the dietary risks with the largest mortality effects. Although 26,000 (23,000–40,000) deaths from ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and diabetes were averted by current alcohol use, they were outweighed by 90,000 (88,000–94,000) deaths from other cardiovascular diseases, cancers, liver cirrhosis, pancreatitis, alcohol use disorders, road traffic and other injuries, and violence. Conclusions Smoking and high blood pressure, which both have effective interventions, are responsible for the largest number of deaths in the US. Other dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors for chronic diseases also cause a substantial number of deaths in the US. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary Editors' Summary A number of modifiable factors are responsible for many premature or preventable deaths. For example, being overweight or obese shortens life expectancy, while half of all long-term tobacco smokers in Western populations will die prematurely from a disease directly related to smoking. Modifiable risk factors fall into three main groups. First, there are lifestyle risk factors. These include tobacco smoking, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol use (small amounts of alcohol may actually prevent diabetes and some types of heart disease and stroke). Second, there are dietary risk factors such as a high salt intake and a low intake of fruits and vegetables. Finally, there are “metabolic risk factors,” which shorten life expectancy by increasing a person's chances of developing cardiovascular disease (in particular, heart problems and strokes) and diabetes. Metabolic risk factors include having high blood pressure or blood cholesterol and being overweight or obese. Why Was This Study Done? It should be possible to reduce preventable deaths by changing modifiable risk factors through introducing public health policies, programs and regulations that reduce exposures to these risk factors. However, it is important to know how many deaths are caused by each risk factor before developing policies and programs that aim to improve a nation's health. Although previous studies have provided some information on the numbers of premature deaths caused by modifiable risk factors, there are two problems with these studies. First, they have not used consistent and comparable methods to estimate the number of deaths attributable to different risk factors. Second, they have rarely considered the effects of dietary and metabolic risk factors. In this new study, the researchers estimate the number of deaths due to 12 different modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors for the United States population. They use a method called “comparative risk assessment.” This approach estimates the number of deaths that would be prevented if current distributions of risk factor exposures were changed to hypothetical optimal distributions. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers extracted data on exposures to these 12 selected risk factors from US national health surveys, and they obtained information on deaths from difference diseases for 2005 from the US National Center for Health Statistics. They used previously published studies to estimate how much each risk factor increases the risk of death from each disease. The researchers then used a mathematical formula to estimate the numbers of deaths caused by each risk factor. Of the 2.5 million US deaths in 2005, they estimate that nearly half a million were associated with tobacco smoking and about 400,000 were associated with high blood pressure. These two risk factors therefore each accounted for about 1 in 5 deaths in US adults. Overweight–obesity and physical inactivity were each responsible for nearly 1 in 10 deaths. Among the dietary factors examined, high dietary salt intake had the largest effect, being responsible for 4% of deaths in adults. Finally, while alcohol use prevented 26,000 deaths from ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and diabetes, the researchers estimate that it caused 90,000 deaths from other types of cardiovascular diseases, other medical conditions, and road traffic accidents and violence. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings indicate that smoking and high blood pressure are responsible for the largest number of preventable deaths in the US, but that several other modifiable risk factors also cause many deaths. Although the accuracy of some of the estimates obtained in this study will be affected by the quality of the data used, these findings suggest that targeting a handful of risk factors could greatly reduce premature mortality in the US. The findings might also apply to other countries, although the risk factors responsible for most preventable deaths may vary between countries. Importantly, effective individual-level and population-wide interventions are already available to reduce people's exposure to the two risk factors responsible for most preventable deaths in the US. The researchers also suggest that combinations of regulation, pricing, and education have the potential to reduce the exposure of US residents to other risk factors that are likely to shorten their lives. Additional Information Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000058.

Trends in diet and Alzheimer's disease during the nutrition transition in Japan and developing countries.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) rates in Japan and developing countries have risen rapidly in recent years. Researchers have associated factors such as the Western diet, obesity, alcohol consumption, and smoking with risk of AD. OBJECTIVE: This paper evaluates whether the dietary transition might explain the rising trend of AD prevalence in Japan and in developing countries, evaluating other factors when possible. METHODS: This study used two approaches to see whether dietary or other changes could explain AD trends in Japan and developing countries. One approach involved comparing trends of AD in Japan with changes in national dietary supply factors, alcohol consumption, and lung cancer mortality rates from zero to 25 years before the prevalence data. The second compared AD prevalence values for eight developing countries with dietary supply factors from zero to 25 years before the prevalence data. RESULTS: For Japan, alcohol consumption, animal product, meat and rice supply, and lung cancer rates correlated highly with AD prevalence data, with the strongest correlation for a lag of 15-25 years. In the eight-country study, total energy and animal fat correlated highly with AD prevalence data, with a lag of 15-20 years. Mechanisms to explain the findings include increased obesity for the eight countries, and increases in cholesterol, saturated fat, and iron from increases in animal products and meat supply for Japan. CONCLUSION: Evidently AD rates will continue rising in non-Western countries for some time unless we address major risk factors involving diet, obesity, and smoking.

Synergism of alcohol, diabetes, and viral hepatitis on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in blacks and whites in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Heavy alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis, and diabetes are risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, to the authors' knowledge, the information concerning their interaction effect in patients with risk of HCC is sparse. METHODS: A population-based, case-control study of HCC was conducted during 1984-2002. The study involved 295 HCC cases and 435 age-, gender-, and race-matched control subjects among Hispanic and non-Hispanic whites and blacks in Los Angeles County, California. Lifestyle risk factors were ascertained through in-person interviews. Infections with the hepatitis B and C (HCV) viruses were determined using their serologic markers. RESULTS: Fourteen HCC cases but no control subjects tested positive for the hepatitis B surface antigen. Seropositivity for antibodies to HCV was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 125 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 17-909) for HCC, whereas seropositivity for antibodies to the hepatitis B core antigen was related to an OR of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.7-5.0). Heavy alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were found to be independently associated with a statistically significant two to threefold increase in risk of HCC after adjustment for hepatitis B and C serology. Subjects with a history of diabetes had an OR of 2.7 (95% CI, 1.6-4.3) for HCC compared with nondiabetic subjects. A synergistic interaction on HCC risk was observed between heavy alcohol consumption and diabetes (OR = 4.2; 95% CI, 2.6-5.8), heavy alcohol consumption and viral hepatitis (OR = 5.5; 95% CI, 3.9-7.0), or between diabetes and viral hepatitis (OR = 4.8; 95% CI, 2.7-6.9). CONCLUSIONS: Heavy alcohol consumption, diabetes, and viral hepatitis were found to exert independent and synergistic effects on risk of HCC in U.S. blacks and whites. Copyright 2004 American Cancer Society.

A Systematic Review of Body Fat Distribution and Mortality in Older People

We conducted a systematic review investigating body fat distribution in older adults and its association with morbidity and mortality. Our search yielded 2,702 citations. Following three levels of screening, 25 studies were selected to evaluate the association between body fat distribution and comorbidity, and 17 studies were used in the mortality analysis. Most of the selected studies in our analyses used anthropometric measures, e.g., body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio; relatively few studies used direct measures, such as body fat/lean mass, and percentage body fat. Studies reported inconsistent findings regarding the strongest predictor(s) of morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of studies suggested that BMI per se was not the most appropriate predictor of morbidity and mortality in the elderly because of its inability to discern or detect age-related body fat redistribution. In addition, studies using BMI found that the optimal BMI range for the lowest mortality in the elderly was overweight (25 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m2) or mildly obese (30 kg/m2 ≤ BMI < 35 kg/m2). Our findings suggest that the current clinical guidelines, recommending that overweight and obesity are major risk factors for increased morbidity and mortality are not applicable to this population. Therefore, the central message of this review is to admonish the government to establish new guidelines specifically for this population, using a combination of body fat distribution measurements, and to certify that these guidelines will not be applied to inappropriate populations.

The increasing burden of hypertension in Nigeria - can a dietary salt reduction strategy change the trend?

Developing countries face a dual challenge of both communicable and non-communicable disease - 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease occur in low and middle-income countries. Hypertension ranks highest as an attributable cause of mortality in both developed and developing countries. The prevalence of hypertension is rising rapidly in Nigeria, from 11% two decades ago to about 30% in recent times. This review explores salt reduction in the diet at the population-wide level as a means of reducing the burden of hypertension in Nigeria. The evidence behind this strategy is explored, methods of how this goal was achieved in other countries are investigated and recommendations on how it could be accomplished in the Nigerian context are considered. There are suggestions that if salt reductions are effectively implemented on a population-wide basis, it will have an impact on morbidity and mortality as large as that which the provision of drains and safe water had in the 19(th) century. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

Heavy Metals and Couple Fecundity, the LIFE Study

The effect of heavy metals at environmentally relevant concentrations on couple fecundity has received limited study despite ubiquitous exposure. In 2005–2009, couples (n=501) desiring pregnancy and discontinuing contraception were recruited and asked to complete interviews and to provide blood specimens for the quantification of cadmium (μg/L), lead (μg/dL) and mercury (μg/L) using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Couples completed daily journals on lifestyle and intercourse along with menstruation and pregnancy testing for women. Couples were followed for 12 months or until pregnant. Fecundability odds ratios (FORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated adjusting for age, body mass index, cotinine, and serum lipids in relation to female then male exposures. FORs <1 denote a longer time to pregnancy. In adjusted models, reduced FORs were observed for both female cadmium (0.78; 95% CI 0.63–0.97) and male lead (0.85; 95% CI 0.73–0.98) concentrations. When jointly modeling couples’ exposures, only male lead concentration significantly reduced the FOR (0.82; 95% CI 0.68, 0.97), though the FOR remained <1 for female cadmium (0.80; 95% CI 0.64, 1.00). This prospective couple based cohort with longitudinal capture of time to pregnancy is suggestive of cadmium and lead’s reproductive toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations.

Is there more to aging than mitochondrial DNA and reactive oxygen species?

Summary With the aging of the population, we are seeing a global increase in age-related disorders, especially in developed countries. Chronic diseases disproportionately affect the older segment of the population, contributing to disability, a diminished quality of life, and an increase in healthcare costs. Increased life expectancy reflects the success of contemporary medicine, which must now respond to the challenges created by this achievement, including the growing burden of chronic illnesses, injuries, and disabilities. A well-developed theoretical framework is required to understand the molecular basis of aging. This, in turn, is a prerequisite for developing the clinical interventions that will constitute an efficient response to the challenge of age-related health issues. This review critically analyzes the experimental evidence that supports and refutes the Free Radical/Mitochondrial Theory of Aging, which has dominated the field of aging research for almost half a century.

Non-nutrient causes of low-grade, systemic inflammation: support for a 'canary in the mineshaft' view of obesity in chronic disease.

A form of low-grade, systemic inflammation ('metaflammation') is linked to many types of chronic disease. Initially, this was thought to be causally related to weight gain and obesity and a possible explanation of the link between obesity and disease. However, several lifestyle-related inducers of such inflammation, some of which are associated with obesity, but some of which are not, have now been identified. The most common of these have been nutritive related, suggesting that there could still be a relationship, either directly or indirectly, with obesity. Here we provide evidence for non-nutritive inflammatory inducers, providing further support for an earlier suggestion that while obesity, beyond a point, may have a direct link with disease, this may be neither necessary nor sufficient to explain the current epidemic of chronic disease. A more ubiquitous cause encompassing all inflammatory inducers is the modern, post-industrial environment and lifestyles emanating from this. Obesity may thus be more of 'a canary in the mineshaft', warning of bigger global problems, than just a single pathway to modern environmentally driven disease. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Resolving the Coronary Artery Disease Epidemic Through Plant-Based Nutrition.

The world's advanced countries have easy access to plentiful high-fat food; ironically, it is this rich diet that produces atherosclerosis. In the world's poorer nations, many people subsist on a primarily plant-based diet, which is far healthier, especially in terms of heart disease. To treat coronary heart disease, a century of scientific investigation has produced a device-driven, risk factor-oriented strategy. Nevertheless, many patients treated with this approach experience progressive disability and death. This strategy is a rear-guard defensive one. In contrast, compelling data from nutritional studies, population surveys, and interventional studies support the effectiveness of a plant-based diet and aggressive lipid lowering to arrest, prevent, and selectively reverse heart disease. In essence, this is an offensive strategy. The single biggest step toward adopting this strategy would be to have United States dietary guidelines support a plant-based diet. An expert committee purged of industrial and political influence is required to assure that science is the basis for dietary recommendations. (c)2001 CHF, Inc.

Influencing public nutrition for non-communicable disease prevention: from community intervention to national programme--experiences from Finland.

A global health transition is currently underway. The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing rapidly in the developing world, very much as a result of changes in lifestyles. In addition to changes in tobacco use and physical activity, major changes are taking place in diets, contributing greatly to the growing epidemic of NCD. Thus, a huge global public health challenge is how to influence the trends in diet and nutrition for effective global NCD prevention. The health transition took place rapidly in Finland after World War II and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) was exceptionally high. The North Karelia Project was launched in 1972 as a community-based, and later as a national, programme to influence diet and other lifestyles that are crucial in the prevention of CVD. The intervention had a strong theory base and it employed comprehensive strategies. Broad community organisation and the strong participation of people were the key elements. Evaluation has shown how the diet (particularly fat consumption) has changed and how these changes have led to a major reduction in population serum cholesterol and blood pressure levels. It has also shown how ischaemic heart disease mortality in a working-age population has declined by 73% in North Karelia and by 65% in the whole country from 1971 to 1995. Although Finland is an industrialised country, North Karelia was rural, of rather low socio-economic level and with many social problems in the 1970s and 1980s. The project was based on low-cost intervention activities, where people's participation and community organisations played a key role. Comprehensive interventions in the community were eventually supported by national activities--from expert guidelines and media activities to industry collaboration and policy. Similar principles for nutrition intervention programmes could be used in developing countries, obviously tailored to the local conditions. This paper discusses the experiences of the North Karelia Project in the light of needs from the less-industrialised countries and makes some general recommendations.

Dietary Salt Intake and Hypertension

Over the past century, salt has been the subject of intense scientific research related to blood pressure elevation and cardiovascular mortalities. Moderate reduction of dietary salt intake is generally an effective measure to reduce blood pressure. However, recently some in the academic society and lay media dispute the benefits of salt restriction, pointing to inconsistent outcomes noted in some observational studies. A reduction in dietary salt from the current intake of 9-12 g/day to the recommended level of less than 5-6 g/day will have major beneficial effects on cardiovascular health along with major healthcare cost savings around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) strongly recommended to reduce dietary salt intake as one of the top priority actions to tackle the global non-communicable disease crisis and has urged member nations to take action to reduce population wide dietary salt intake to decrease the number of deaths from hypertension, cardiovascular disease and stroke. However, some scientists still advocate the possibility of increased risk of CVD morbidity and mortality at extremes of low salt intake. Future research may inform the optimal sodium reduction strategies and intake targets for general populations. Until then, we have to continue to build consensus around the greatest benefits of salt reduction for CVD prevention, and dietary salt intake reduction strategies must remain at the top of the public health agenda.

Egg yolk consumption and carotid plaque.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly the potential harm from high cholesterol intake, and specifically from egg yolks, is considered insignificant. We therefore assessed total plaque area (TPA) in patients attending Canadian vascular prevention clinics to determine if the atherosclerosis burden, as a marker of arterial damage, was related to egg intake. To provide perspective on the magnitude of the effect, we also analysed the effect of smoking (pack-years). METHODS: Consecutive patients attending vascular prevention clinics at University Hospital had baseline measurement of TPA by duplex ultrasound, and filled out questionnaires regarding their lifestyle and medications, including pack-years of smoking, and the number of egg yolks consumed per week times the number of years consumed (egg-yolk years). RESULTS: Data were available in 1262 patients; mean (SD) age was 61.5 (14.8) years; 47% were women. Carotid plaque area increased linearly with age after age 40, but increased exponentially with pack-years of smoking and with egg-yolk years. Plaque area in patients consuming <2 eggs per week (n = 388) was 125 ± 129 mm(2), versus 132 ± 142 mm(2) in those consuming 3 or more eggs per week (n = 603); (p < 0.0001 after adjustment for age). In multiple regression, egg-yolk years remained significant after adjusting for coronary risk factors. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that regular consumption of egg yolk should be avoided by persons at risk of cardiovascular disease. This hypothesis should be tested in a prospective study with more detailed information about diet, and other possible confounders such as exercise and waist circumference. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular disease mortality and cancer incidence in vegetarians: a meta-analysis and systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohort studies have examined mortality and overall cancer incidence among vegetarians, but the results have been inconclusive. AIMS: The objective of the present meta-analysis was to investigate cardiovascular disease mortality and cancer incidence among vegetarians and nonvegetarians. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE and Web Of Science databases were searched for cohort studies published from inception to September 2011. Studies were included if they contained the relative risk (RR) and corresponding 95% CI. Participants were from the UK, Germany, California, USA, the Netherlands and Japan. RESULTS: Seven studies with a total of 124,706 participants were included in this analysis. All-cause mortality in vegetarians was 9% lower than in nonvegetarians (RR = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.66-1.16). The mortality from ischemic heart disease was significantly lower in vegetarians than in nonvegetarians (RR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.87). We observed a 16% lower mortality from circulatory diseases (RR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.54-1.14) and a 12% lower mortality from cerebrovascular disease (RR = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.70-1.06) in vegetarians compared with nonvegetarians. Vegetarians had a significantly lower cancer incidence than nonvegetarians (RR = 0.82; 95% CI, 0.67-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that vegetarians have a significantly lower ischemic heart disease mortality (29%) and overall cancer incidence (18%) than nonvegetarians. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The risks of copper toxicity contributing to cognitive decline in the aging population and to Alzheimer's disease.

It is a pleasure and an honor to contribute a paper to a special issue of the Journal of the American College of Nutrition honoring Stanley Wallach and Pearl Small. In this brief review I advance the hypothesis that copper toxicity is the major cause of the epidemic of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease engulfing our aging population. This epidemic is recent, exploding in the last 50-60 years. The disease was virtually unknown 100 years ago. And it involves only developed countries that use copper plumbing. Something in our environment associated with development is poisoning the minds of our aged. The epidemic is associated with the use of copper plumbing, and the taking of copper in multi-mineral supplements. Food copper (organic copper) is processed by the liver and is transported and sequestered in a safe manner. Inorganic copper, such as that in drinking water and copper supplements, largely bypasses the liver and enters the free copper pool of the blood directly. This copper is potentially toxic because it may penetrate the blood/brain barrier. I review a web of animal and human data that tightens the noose around the hypothesis that copper toxicity is causing the epidemic of Alzeimer's disease and loss of cognition in our aging population.

IMPACT OF BARBECUED MEAT CONSUMED IN PREGNANCY ON BIRTH OUTCOMES ACCOUNTING FOR PERSONAL PRENATAL EXPOSURE TO AIRBORNE POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS. BIRTH COHORT STUDY IN POLAND

We previously reported an association between prenatal exposure to airborne PAH and lower birth weight, birth length and head circumference. The main goal of the present analysis was to assess the possible impact of co-exposure to PAH-containing of barbecued meat consumed during pregnancy on birth outcomes. The birth cohort consisted of 432 pregnant women who gave birth at term (>36 weeks of gestation). Only non-smoking women with singleton pregnancies, 18-35 years of age, and who were free from chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension were included in the study. Detailed information on diet over pregnancy was collected through interviews and the measurement of exposure to airborne PAHs was carried out by personal air monitoring during the second trimester of pregnancy. The effect of barbecued meat consumption on birth outcomes (birthweight, length and head circumference at birth) was adjusted in multiple linear regression models for potential confounding factors such as prenatal exposure to airborne PAHs, child’s sex, gestational age, parity, size of mother (maternal prepregnancy weight, weight gain in pregnancy) and prenatal environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). The multivariable regression model showed a significant deficit in birthweight associated with barbecued meat consumption in pregnancy (coeff = −106.0 g; 95%CI: −293.3, −35.8); The effect of exposure to airborne PAHs was about the same magnitude order (coeff. = −164.6 g; 95%CI: −172.3, − 34.7). Combined effect of both sources of exposure amounted to birth weight deficit of 214.3 g (95%CI: −419.0, − 9.6). Regression models performed for birth length and head circumference showed similar trends but the estimated effects were of borderline significance level. As the intake of barbecued meat did not affect the duration of pregnancy, the reduced birthweight could not have been mediated by shortened gestation period. In conclusion, the study results provided epidemiologic evidence that prenatal PAH exposure from diet including grilled meat might be hazardous for fetal development.

Systematic literature review on economic implications and pharmacoeconomic issues of rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To provide a state of the art of economic analyses applied to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: A systematic literature review on economic consequences and pharmacoeconomic issues of RA was performed. RESULTS: 127 valid articles were examined in this review. Generally, the financial impact of RA is substantial for health-care systems and society worldwide, although differences exist among national economies. Both direct and indirect (i.e. loss of productivity) costs contribute to economic burden of RA and must be taken into account when estimating overall impact to society. Disease severity, disease activity, age and socioeconomic status have been found to be the most relevant predictors of cost increase in RA. Moreover, introduction of biological anti-rheumatic agents has significantly raised direct medical costs in certain patients, but has also led to marked improvements in reducing disease activity, joint damage, and productivity loss in many of these patients. RA has also a significant impact on all aspects of quality of life; recent publications on health utility scores showed RA to be one of the diseases associated with poorest quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: RA represents a clinical and economic burden for healthcare systems. Although attributable RA costs have been extensively evaluated over the last decades, several issues, especially concerning the use of expensive therapies, must be addressed and frequently updated. Future research should also provide health economic evidence from usual practice settings, and on the economic impact of different therapeutic approaches to pursue specific clinical targets in individual patients.

Environmental toxicants and the developing immune system: a missing link in the global battle against infectious disease?

There is now compelling evidence that developmental exposure to chemicals from our environment contributes to disease later in life, with animal models supporting this concept in reproductive, metabolic, and neurodegenerative diseases. In contrast, data regarding how developmental exposures impact the susceptibility of the immune system to functional alterations later in life are surprisingly scant. Given that the immune system forms an integrated network that detects and destroys invading pathogens and cancer cells, it provides the body’s first line of defense. Thus, the consequences of early-life exposures that reduce immune function are profound. This review summarizes available data for pollutants such as cigarette smoke and dioxin-like compounds, which consistently support the idea that developmental exposures critically impact the immune system. These findings suggest that exposure to common chemicals from our daily environment represent overlooked contributors to the fact that infectious diseases remain among the top five causes of death worldwide.

Adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research guidelines and risk of death in Europe: results from the Europea...

BACKGROUND: In 2007, the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) issued recommendations on diet, physical activity, and weight management for cancer prevention on the basis of the most comprehensive collection of available evidence. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations is related to risk of death. DESIGN: The current study included 378,864 participants from 9 European countries enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. At recruitment (1992-1998), dietary, anthropometric, and lifestyle information was collected. A WCRF/AICR score, which incorporated 6 of the WCRF/AICR recommendations for men [regarding body fatness, physical activity, foods and drinks that promote weight gain, plant foods, animal foods, and alcoholic drinks (score range: 0-6)] and 7 WCRF/AICR recommendations for women [plus breastfeeding (score range: 0-7)], was constructed. Higher scores indicated greater concordance with WCRF/AICR recommendations. Associations between the WCRF/AICR score and risks of total and cause-specific death were estimated by using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: After a median follow-up time of 12.8 y, 23,828 deaths were identified. Participants within the highest category of the WCRF/AICR score (5-6 points in men; 6-7 points in women) had a 34% lower hazard of death (95% CI: 0.59, 0.75) compared with participants within the lowest category of the WCRF/AICR score (0-2 points in men; 0-3 points in women). Significant inverse associations were observed in all countries. The WCRF/AICR score was also significantly associated with a lower hazard of dying from cancer, circulatory disease, and respiratory disease. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that following WCRF/AICR recommendations could significantly increase longevity.

Association of Alzheimer disease pathology with abnormal lipid metabolism: the Hisayama Study.

OBJECTIVE: The relationship between lipid profiles and Alzheimer disease (AD) pathology at the population level is unclear. We searched for evidence of AD-related pathologic risk of abnormal lipid metabolism. METHODS: This study included brain specimens from a series of 147 autopsies performed between 1998 and 2003 of residents in Hisayama town, Japan (76 men and 71 women), who underwent clinical examinations in 1988. Lipid profiles, such as total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), were measured in 1988. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) was calculated using the Friedewald formula. Neuritic plaques (NPs) were assessed according to the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease guidelines (CERAD) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) were assessed according to Braak stage. Associations between each lipid profile and AD pathology were examined by analysis of covariance and logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Adjusted means of TC, LDLC, TC/HDLC, LDLC/HDLC, and non-HDLC (defined as TC-HDLC) were significantly higher in subjects with NPs, even in sparse to moderate stages (CERAD = 1 or 2), compared to subjects without NPs in multivariate models including APOE ε4 carrier and other confounding factors. The subjects in the highest quartiles of these lipid profiles had significantly higher risks of NPs compared to subjects in the lower respective quartiles, which may suggest a threshold effect. Conversely, there was no relationship between any lipid profile and NFTs. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that dyslipidemia increases the risk of plaque-type pathology.

Prevalence of Vitamin A Deficiency in South Asia: Causes, Outcomes, and Possible Remedies

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) has been recognized as a public-health issue in developing countries. Economic constraints, sociocultural limitations, insufficient dietary intake, and poor absorption leading to depleted vitamin A stores in the body have been regarded as potential determinants of the prevalence of VAD in South Asian developing countries. VAD is exacerbated by lack of education, poor sanitation, absence of new legislation and enforcement of existing food laws, and week monitoring and surveillance system. Several recent estimates confirmed higher morbidly and mortality rate among children and pregnant and non-pregnant women of childbearing age. Xerophthalmia is the leading cause of preventable childhood blindness with its earliest manifestations as night blindness and Bitot's spots, followed by blinding keratomalacia, all of which are the ocular manifestations of VAD. Children need additional vitamin A because they do not consume enough in their normal diet. There are three general ways for improving vitamin A status: supplementation, fortification, and dietary diversification. These approaches have not solved the problem in South Asian countries to the desired extent because of poor governmental support and supervision of vitamin A supplementation twice a year. An extensive review of the extant literature was carried out, and the data under various sections were identified by using a computerized bibliographic search via PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. All abstracts and full-text articles were examined, and the most relevant articles were selected for screening and inclusion in this review. Conclusively, high prevalence of VAD in South Asian developing countries leads to increased morbidity and mortality among infants, children, and pregnant women. Therefore, stern efforts are needed to address this issue of public-health significance at local and international level in lower- and middle-income countries of South Asia.

Will all Americans become overweight or obese? estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic.

We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity-related health-care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health-care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health-care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46-0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican-American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI >/= 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health-care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7-956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16-18% of total US health-care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections .

Urinary cadmium in the 1999-2008 U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Chronic low-level cadmium (Cd) exposure is linked to kidney and cardiovascular disease, fractures, and cancer. Diet and smoking are primary sources of exposure in the general population. We analyzed urinary Cd in NHANES 1999-2008 to determine whether levels declined significantly over the decade for U.S. children, teens, and adults (nonsmokers and smokers) and, if so, factors influencing the decline(s). For each subpopulation, we modeled log urinary Cd using variable-threshold censored multiple regression. Models included individual-level covariates (age, gender, BMI, income, race/ethnicity/country of origin, education, survey period), smoking, housing (home age, water source, filter use), and diet (supplement use; 24-h calorie, fat, protein, micronutrient, and Cd-containing food intakes), creatinine, and survey year variables. Geometric mean urinary Cd (ng/mL) declined 20-25% in these subpopulations, and the regressions showed statistically significant declines in later years for teens and adults. While certain covariates were significantly associated with Cd by subpopulation (creatinine; age; BMI; race/ethnicity/origin; education; smokers in the home; serum cotinine; 24-h fat, Mg, Fe intakes; use of dietary supplements), they did not help explain the declines. Instead, unidentified time-related factors appeared responsible. Despite the declines, millions of Americans remain potentially at risk of adverse outcomes associated with low-level Cd exposure.

Nut consumption, vegetarian diets, ischemic heart disease risk, and all-cause mortality: evidence from epidemiologic studies.

Perhaps one of the most unexpected and novel findings in nutritional epidemiology in the past 5 y has been that nut consumption seems to protect against ischemic heart disease (IHD). Frequency and quantity of nut consumption have been documented to be higher in vegetarian than in nonvegetarian populations. Nuts also constitute an important part of other plant-based diets, such as Mediterranean and Asian diets. In a large, prospective epidemiologic study of Seventh-day Adventists in California, we found that frequency of nut consumption had a substantial and highly significant inverse association with risk of myocardial infarction and death from IHD. The Iowa Women's Health Study also documented an association between nut consumption and decreased risk of IHD. The protective effect of nuts on IHD has been found in men and women and in the elderly. Importantly, nuts have similar associations in both vegetarians and nonvegetarians. The protective effect of nut consumption on IHD is not offset by increased mortality from other causes. Moreover, frequency of nut consumption has been found to be inversely related to all-cause mortality in several population groups such as whites, blacks, and the elderly. Thus, nut consumption may not only offer protection against IHD, but also increase longevity.

Trends in mortality from cancers of the breast, colon, prostate, esophagus, and stomach in East Asia: role of nutrition transition.

Although substantial nutrition transition, characterized by an increased intake of energy, animal fat, and red meats, has occurred during the last several decades in East Asia, few studies have systematically evaluated temporal trends in cancer incidence or mortality among populations in this area. Therefore, we sought to investigate this question with tremendous public health implications. Data on mortality rates of cancers of the breast, colon, prostate, esophagus, and stomach for China (1988-2000), Hong Kong (1960-2006), Japan (1950-2006), Korea (1985-2006), and Singapore (1963-2006) were obtained from WHO. Joinpoint regression was used to investigate trends in mortality of these cancers. A remarkable increase in mortality rates of breast, colon, and prostate cancers and a precipitous decrease in those of esophageal and stomach cancers have been observed in selected countries (except breast cancer in Hong Kong) during the study periods. For example, the annual percentage increase in breast cancer mortality was 5.5% (95% confidence interval: 3.8, 7.3%) for the period 1985-1993 in Korea, and mortality rates for prostate cancer significantly increased by 3.2% (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.3%) per year from 1958 to 1993 in Japan. These changes in cancer mortality lagged ∼ 10 years behind the inception of the nutrition transition toward a westernized diet in selected countries or regions. There have been striking changes in mortality rates of breast, colon, prostate, esophageal, and stomach cancers in East Asia during the last several decades, which may be at least in part attributable to the concurrent nutrition transition.

Smoking and lung cancer risk in American and Japanese men: an international case-control study.

Rates of lung cancer in American men have greatly exceeded those in Japanese men for several decades despite the higher smoking prevalence in Japanese men. It is not known whether the relative risk of lung cancer associated with cigarette smoking is lower in Japanese men than American men and whether these risks vary by the amount and duration of smoking. To estimate smoking-specific relative risks for lung cancer in men, a multicentric case-control study was carried out in New York City, Washington, DC, and Nagoya, Japan from 1992 to 1998. A total of 371 cases and 373 age-matched controls were interviewed in United States hospitals and 410 cases and 252 hospital controls in Japanese hospitals; 411 Japanese age-matched healthy controls were also randomly selected from electoral rolls. The odds ratio (OR) for lung cancer in current United States smokers relative to nonsmokers was 40.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 21.8-79.6], which was >10 times higher than the OR of 3.5 for current smokers in Japanese relative to hospital controls (95% CI = 1.6-7.5) and six times higher than in Japanese relative to community controls (OR = 6.3; 95% CI = 3.7-10.9). There were no substantial differences in the mean number of years of smoking or average daily number of cigarettes smoked between United States and Japanese cases or between United States and Japanese controls, but American cases began smoking on average 2.5 years earlier than Japanese cases. The risk of lung cancer associated with cigarette smoking was substantially higher in United States than in Japanese males, consistent with population-based statistics on smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence. Possible explanations for this difference in risk include a more toxic cigarette formulation of American manufactured cigarettes as evidenced by higher concentrations of tobacco-specific nitrosamines in both tobacco and mainstream smoke, the much wider use of activated charcoal in the filters of Japanese than in American cigarettes, as well as documented differences in genetic susceptibility and lifestyle factors other than smoking.

Economic burden of a gluten-free diet.

BACKGROUND: Coeliac disease is a common, autoimmune disorder, for which the only treatment is lifelong adherence to a gluten-free diet. This study evaluates the economic burden of adhering to a gluten-free diet. METHODS: A market basket of products identified by name brand, weight or package size for both regular wheat-based products and gluten-free counterparts was developed. The differences in price between purchase venues, both type of store (general grocery store, an upscale grocery store and a health food store and four internet-based grocery sites) and region was also analysed. RESULTS: Availability of gluten-free products varied between the different venues, regular grocery stores carried 36%, while upscale markets carried 41%, and health food stores 94%, compared with 100% availability on the internet. Overall, every gluten-free product was more expensive than their wheat-based counterpart (P <or= 0.05). Bread and pasta was twice as expensive as their wheat-based counterparts. Cost was affected more by shopping venue than geographic location. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that gluten-free foods have poor availability and are more expensive than their gluten-containing counterparts. The impact of these findings on dietary compliance and the quality of life needs to be addressed.

Light-at-night, circadian disruption and breast cancer: assessment of existing evidence

Background Breast cancer incidence is increasing globally for largely unknown reasons. The possibility that a portion of the breast cancer burden might be explained by the introduction and increasing use of electricity to light the night was suggested >20 years ago. Methods The theory is based on nocturnal light-induced disruption of circadian rhythms, notably reduction of melatonin synthesis. It has formed the basis for a series of predictions including that non-day shift work would increase risk, blind women would be at lower risk, long sleep duration would lower risk and community nighttime light level would co-distribute with breast cancer incidence on the population level. Results Accumulation of epidemiological evidence has accelerated in recent years, reflected in an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classification of shift work as a probable human carcinogen (2A). There is also a strong rodent model in support of the light-at-night (LAN) idea. Conclusion If a consensus eventually emerges that LAN does increase risk, then the mechanisms for the effect are important to elucidate for intervention and mitigation. The basic understanding of phototransduction for the circadian system, and of the molecular genetics of circadian rhythm generation are both advancing rapidly, and will provide for the development of lighting technologies at home and at work that minimize circadian disruption, while maintaining visual efficiency and aesthetics. In the interim, there are strategies now available to reduce the potential for circadian disruption, which include extending the daily dark period, appreciate nocturnal awakening in the dark, using dim red light for nighttime necessities, and unless recommended by a physician, not taking melatonin tablets.

Cancer mortality in workers employed in cattle, pigs, and sheep slaughtering and processing plants.

OBJECTIVES: We studied mortality in two separate cohorts of workers in abattoirs (N=4996) and meat processing plants (N=3642) belonging to a meatcutters' union, because they were exposed to viruses that cause cancer in food animals, and also to chemical carcinogens at work. METHODS: Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) were estimated for each cohort as a whole and in subgroups defined by race and sex, using the US general population mortality rates for comparison. Study subjects were followed up from January 1950 to December 2006, during which time over 60% of them died. RESULTS: An excess of deaths from cancers of the base of the tongue, esophagus, lung, skin, bone and bladder, lymphoid leukemia, and benign tumors of the thyroid and other endocrine glands, and possibly Hodgkin's disease, was observed in abattoir and meat processing workers. Significantly lower SMRs were recorded for cancer of the thymus, mediastinum, pleura, etc., breast cancer, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the excess occurrence of cancer in workers in abattoirs and meat processing plants, butchers, and meatcutters, previously reported in this cohort and other similar cohorts worldwide. Large nested case-control studies are now needed to examine which specific occupational and non-occupational exposures are responsible for the excess. There is now sufficient evidence for steps to be taken to protect workers from carcinogenic exposures at the workplace. There are also serious implications for the general population which may also be exposed to some of these viruses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Legumes: the most important dietary predictor of survival in older people of different ethnicities.

To identify protective dietary predictors amongst long-lived elderly people (N= 785), the "Food Habits in Later Life "(FHILL) study was undertaken among five cohorts in Japan, Sweden, Greece and Australia. Between 1988 and 1991, baseline data on food intakes were collected. There were 785 participants aged 70 and over that were followed up to seven years. Based on an alternative Cox Proportional Hazard model adjusted to age at enrollment (in 5-year intervals), gender and smoking, the legume food group showed 7-8% reduction in mortality hazard ratio for every 20g increase in daily intake with or without controlling for ethnicity (RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.85-0.99 and RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99, respectively). Other food groups were not found to be consistently significant in predicting survival amongst the FHILL cohorts.

Zinc and multi-mineral supplementation should mitigate the pathogenic impact of cadmium exposure.

High-level cadmium (Cd) exposure has long been known to induce nephropathy, severe osteoporosis, and fractures in humans. More recent epidemiology, however, reveals that, in populations not known to have important industrial exposure to this heavy metal, high-normal blood or urine Cd levels correlate with increased risk for vascular disorders, cancers, diabetes, and total mortality, as well as osteoporosis and nephropathy. Since these disorders appear unlikely to expedite Cd absorption, and since Cd has promoted these pathologies in rodent studies, it seems reasonable to conclude that Cd is an important mediating risk factor for these disorders in humans. Avoiding tobacco smoke or frequent ingestion of shellfish or organ meats can lessen humans exposure to Cd, but the chief dietary sources of Cd are plant-derived foods - green leafy vegetables, whole grains, tubers, and root vegetables - typically recommended for their health-supportive properties; indeed, among non-smokers, vegans tend to have the highest Cd body burden. Fortunately, iron sufficiency and ample dietary intakes of calcium, magnesium, and zinc can impede absorption of dietary Cd, both by down-regulating intestinal expression of mineral transporters, and by directly competing with Cd for access to these transporters. Correction of iron deficiency appears to be of particular importance for controlling Cd absorption. Moreover, zinc supplementation can counteract the toxicity of Cd already in the body via induction of metallothionein, which binds Cd avidly via its sulfhydryl groups; so long as it remains sequestered in this form, Cd is innocuous. Zinc supplementation may in any case be recommendable, as optimal zinc status exerts protective anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and immunosupportive effects. Inasmuch as the toxicity of Cd appears to be mediated in large part by oxidative stress, ingestion of spirulina, lipoic acid, melatonin, and N-acetylcysteine may also have potential for mitigating the risk associated with Cd exposure, as suggested by rodent studies. Hence, although Cd may prove to be a major risk factor for morbidity and mortality in humans, practical strategies for limiting its absorption and pathogenic impact are at hand. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of gargling for the prevention of upper respiratory tract infections

Background In Japan, gargling is a generally accepted way of preventing upper respiratory tract infection (URTI). The effectiveness of gargling for preventing URTI has been shown in a randomized controlled trial that compared incidences of URTI between gargling and control groups. From the perspective of the third-party payer, gargling is dominant due to the fact that the costs of gargling are borne by the participant. However, the cost-effectiveness of gargling from a societal perspective should be considered. In this study, economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of gargling for preventing URTI from a societal perspective. Methods Among participants in the gargling trial, 122 water-gargling and 130 control subjects were involved in the economic analysis. Sixty-day cumulative follow-up costs and effectiveness measured by quality-adjusted life days (QALD) were compared between groups on an intention-to-treat basis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was converted to dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The 95% confidence interval (95%CI) and probability of gargling being cost-effective were estimated by bootstrapping. Results After 60 days, QALD was increased by 0.43 and costs were $37.1 higher in the gargling group than in the control group. ICER of the gargling group was $31,800/QALY (95%CI, $1,900–$248,100). Although this resembles many acceptable forms of medical intervention, including URTI preventive measures such as influenza vaccination, the broad confidence interval indicates uncertainty surrounding our results. In addition, one-way sensitivity analysis also indicated that careful evaluation is required for the cost of gargling and the utility of moderate URTI. The major limitation of this study was that this trial was conducted in winter, at a time when URTI is prevalent. Care must be taken when applying the results to a season when URTI is not prevalent, since the ICER will increase due to decreases in incidence. Conclusion This study suggests gargling as a cost-effective preventive strategy for URTI that is acceptable from perspectives of both the third-party payer and society.

The drugs don’t work? antidepressants and the current and future pharmacological management of depression

Depression is a potentially life-threatening disorder affecting millions of people across the globe. It is a huge burden to both the individual and society, costing over £9 billion in 2000 alone: the World Health Organisation (WHO) cited it as the third leading cause of global disability in 2004 (first in the developed world), and project it will be the leading cause by 2030. The serendipitous discovery of antidepressants has revolutionized both our understanding and management of depression: however, their efficacy in the treatment of depression has long been debated and recently been brought very much into the public limelight by a controversial publication by Kirsch, in which the role of placebo response in antidepressant efficacy trials is highlighted. Whilst antidepressants offer benefits in both the short and long term, important problems persist such as intolerability, delayed therapeutic onset, limited efficacy in milder depression and the existence of treatment-resistant depression.

Gestational diabetes and pregnancy outcomes - a systematic review of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) diagnostic criteria

Background Two criteria based on a 2 h 75 g OGTT are being used for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes (GDM), those recommended over the years by the World Health Organization (WHO), and those recently recommended by the International Association for Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG), the latter generated in the HAPO study and based on pregnancy outcomes. Our aim is to systematically review the evidence for the associations between GDM (according to these criteria) and adverse outcomes. Methods We searched relevant studies in MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, the Cochrane Library, CINHAL, WHO-Afro library, IMSEAR, EMCAT, IMEMR and WPRIM. We included cohort studies permitting the evaluation of GDM diagnosed by WHO and or IADPSG criteria against adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in untreated women. Only studies with universal application of a 75 g OGTT were included. Relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained for each study. We combined study results using a random-effects model. Inconsistency across studies was defined by an inconsistency index (I2) > 50%. Results Data were extracted from eight studies, totaling 44,829 women. Greater risk of adverse outcomes was observed for both diagnostic criteria. When using the WHO criteria, consistent associations were seen for macrosomia (RR = 1.81; 95%CI 1.47-2.22; p < 0.001); large for gestational age (RR = 1.53; 95%CI 1.39-1.69; p < 0.001); perinatal mortality (RR = 1.55; 95% CI 0.88-2.73; p = 0.13); preeclampsia (RR = 1.69; 95%CI 1.31-2.18; p < 0.001); and cesarean delivery (RR = 1.37;95%CI 1.24-1.51; p < 0.001). Less data were available for the IADPSG criteria, and associations were inconsistent across studies (I2 ≥ 73%). Magnitudes of RRs and their 95%CIs were 1.73 (1.28-2.35; p = 0.001) for large for gestational age; 1.71 (1.38-2.13; p < 0.001) for preeclampsia; and 1.23 (1.01-1.51; p = 0.04) for cesarean delivery. Excluding either the HAPO or the EBDG studies minimally altered these associations, but the RRs seen for the IADPSG criteria were reduced after excluding HAPO. Conclusions The WHO and the IADPSG criteria for GDM identified women at a small increased risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Associations were of similar magnitude for both criteria. However, high inconsistency was seen for those with the IADPSG criteria. Full evaluation of the latter in settings other than HAPO requires additional studies.

Medical and economic impact of extraintestinal infections due to Escherichia coli: focus on an increasingly important endemic problem.

Escherichia coli is probably the best-known bacterial species and one of the most frequently isolated organisms from clinical specimens. Despite this, underappreciation and misunderstandings exist among medical professionals and the lay public alike regarding E. coli as an extraintestinal pathogen. Underappreciated features include (i) the wide variety of extraintestinal infections E. coli can cause, (ii) the high incidence and associated morbidity, mortality, and costs of these diverse clinical syndromes, (iii) the pathogenic potential of different groups of E. coli strains for causing intestinal versus extraintestinal disease, and (iv) increasing antimicrobial resistance. In this era in which health news often sensationalizes uncommon infection syndromes or pathogens, the strains of E. coli that cause extraintestinal infection are an increasingly important endemic problem and underappreciated "killers". Billions of health care dollars, millions of work days, and hundreds of thousands of lives are lost each year to extraintestinal infections due to E. coli. New treatments and prevention measures will be needed for improved outcomes and a diminished disease burden.

Diet, infection and wheezy illness: lessons from adults.

An increase in asthma and atopic disease has been recorded in many countries where society has become more prosperous. We have investigated two possible explanations: a reduction in childhood infections and a change in diet. In a cohort of people followed up since 1964, originally selected as a random sample of primary school children, we have investigated the relevance of family size and the common childhood infectious diseases to development of eczema, hay fever and asthma. Although membership of a large family reduced risks of hay fever and eczema (but not asthma), this was not explained by the infections the child had suffered. Indeed, the more infections the child had had, the greater the likelihood of asthma, although measles gave a modest measure of protection. We have investigated dietary factors in two separate studies. In the first, we have shown the risks of bronchial hyper-reactivity are increased seven-fold among those with the lowest intake of vitamin C, while the lowest intake of saturated fats gave a 10-fold protection. In the second, we have shown that the risk of adult-onset wheezy illness is increased five-fold by the lowest intake of vitamin E and doubled by the lowest intake of vitamin C. These results were supported by direct measurements of the vitamins and triglycerides in plasma. We have proposed that changes in the diet of pregnant women may have reflected those observed in the population as a whole and that these may have resulted in the birth of cohorts of children predisposed to atopy and asthma. The direct test of this is to study the diet and nutritional status of a large cohort of pregnant women and to follow their offspring forward. This is our current research.

The economic burden of non-influenza-related viral respiratory tract infection in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Viral respiratory tract infection (VRTI) is the most common illness in humans. Despite the high incidence, the economic impact of non-influenza-related VRTI has not been rigorously explored. Our objectives were to obtain an updated incidence of non-influenza-related VRTI in the United States and to quantify the health care resource use (direct costs) and productivity losses (indirect costs) associated with these infections. METHODS: A nationwide telephone survey of US households (N = 4051) was conducted between November 3, 2000, and February 12, 2001 to obtain a representative estimate of the self-reported incidence of non-influenza-related VRTI and related treatment patterns. Direct treatment costs measured included outpatient clinician encounters, use of over-the-counter and prescription drugs, and associated infectious complications of non-influenza-related VRTI. Absenteeism estimates for infected individuals and parents of infected children were extrapolated from National Health Interview Survey data. RESULTS: Of survey respondents, 72% reported a non-influenza-related VRTI within the past year. Respondents who experienced a self-reported non-influenza-related VRTI averaged 2.5 episodes annually. When these rates are extrapolated to the entire US population, approximately 500 million non-influenza-related VRTI episodes occur per year. Similarly, if the treatment patterns reported by the respondents are extended to the population, the total economic impact of non-influenza-related VRTI approaches $40 billion annually (direct costs, $17 billion per year; and indirect costs, $22.5 billion per year). CONCLUSIONS: Largely because of the high attack rate, non-influenza-related VRTI imposes a greater economic burden than many other clinical conditions. The pending availability of effective antiviral therapies warrants increased attention be paid to this common and expensive illness.

Annual cost of illness and quality-adjusted life year losses in the United States due to 14 foodborne pathogens.

In this article we estimate the annual cost of illness and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss in the United States caused by 14 of the 31 major foodborne pathogens reported on by Scallan et al. (Emerg. Infect. Dis. 17:7-15, 2011), based on their incidence estimates of foodborne illness in the United States. These 14 pathogens account for 95 % of illnesses and hospitalizations and 98 % of deaths due to identifiable pathogens estimated by Scallan et al. We estimate that these 14 pathogens cause $14.0 billion (ranging from $4.4 billion to $33.0 billion) in cost of illness and a loss of 61,000 QALYs (ranging from 19,000 to 145,000 QALYs) per year. Roughly 90 % of this loss is caused by five pathogens: nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica ($3.3 billion; 17,000 QALYs), Campylobacter spp. ($1.7 billion; 13,300 QALYs), Listeria monocytogenes ($2.6 billion; 9,400 QALYs), Toxoplasma gondii ($3 billion; 11,000 QALYs), and norovirus ($2 billion; 5,000 QALYs). A companion article attributes losses estimated in this study to the consumption of specific categories of foods. To arrive at these estimates, for each pathogen we create disease outcome trees that characterize the symptoms, severities, durations, outcomes, and likelihoods of health states associated with that pathogen. We then estimate the cost of illness (medical costs, productivity loss, and valuation of premature mortality) for each pathogen. We also estimate QALY loss for each health state associated with a given pathogen, using the EuroQol 5D scale. Construction of disease outcome trees, outcome-specific cost of illness, and EuroQol 5D scoring are described in greater detail in a second companion article.

Fish consumption, omega-3 fatty acids, and environmental contaminants in relation to low-grade inflammation and early atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fish consumption and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake are shown to protect from cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, most fish contain environmental contaminants such as dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and methylmercury (MeHg) that may have adverse effects on cardiovascular health. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to elucidate the associations of fish consumption, omega-3 PUFAs, environmental contaminants with low-grade inflammation, early atherosclerosis, and traditional CVD risk factors. METHODS: The Health 2000 survey participants (n=1173) represented the general Finnish population and the Fishermen study participants (n=255) represented a population with high fish consumption and high exposure to environmental contaminants. Model-adjusted geometric means and tests for linear trend were calculated for CVD risk factors by tertiles of fish consumption and serum omega-3 PUFAs, and additionally in the Fishermen study only, by tertiles of serum PCDD/F+PCB, and blood MeHg. RESULTS: Serum triglyceride decreased across omega-3 PUFA tertiles in both sexes and studies. Insulin resistance, C-reactive protein, tumour necrosis factor α, and interleukin 6 decreased across omega-3 PUFA tertiles among the Health 2000 survey participants. Among the Fishermen study men, insulin resistance and arterial stiffness indicated by β-stiffness index tended to increase and the RR estimate for carotid artery plaque tended to decrease across tertiles of PCDD/F+PCB and MeHg. CONCLUSION: Previously established hypotriglyceridemic and anti-inflammatory effects of omega-3 PUFAs were seen also in this study. The hypothesised favourable effect on insulin sensitivity and arterial elasticity was suggested to be counteracted by high exposure to environmental contaminants but the effect on plaque prevalence appeared not to be harmful. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overweight, obesity, and mortality from cancer in a prospectively studied cohort of U.S. adults.

BACKGROUND: The influence of excess body weight on the risk of death from cancer has not been fully characterized. METHODS: In a prospectively studied population of more than 900,000 U.S. adults (404,576 men and 495,477 women) who were free of cancer at enrollment in 1982, there were 57,145 deaths from cancer during 16 years of follow-up. We examined the relation in men and women between the body-mass index in 1982 and the risk of death from all cancers and from cancers at individual sites, while controlling for other risk factors in multivariate proportional-hazards models. We calculated the proportion of all deaths from cancer that was attributable to overweight and obesity in the U.S. population on the basis of risk estimates from the current study and national estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the U.S. adult population. RESULTS: The heaviest members of this cohort (those with a body-mass index [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters] of at least 40) had death rates from all cancers combined that were 52 percent higher (for men) and 62 percent higher (for women) than the rates in men and women of normal weight. For men, the relative risk of death was 1.52 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.13 to 2.05); for women, the relative risk was 1.62 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.40 to 1.87). In both men and women, body-mass index was also significantly associated with higher rates of death due to cancer of the esophagus, colon and rectum, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, and kidney; the same was true for death due to non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and multiple myeloma. Significant trends of increasing risk with higher body-mass-index values were observed for death from cancers of the stomach and prostate in men and for death from cancers of the breast, uterus, cervix, and ovary in women. On the basis of associations observed in this study, we estimate that current patterns of overweight and obesity in the United States could account for 14 percent of all deaths from cancer in men and 20 percent of those in women. CONCLUSIONS: Increased body weight was associated with increased death rates for all cancers combined and for cancers at multiple specific sites. Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society

Tobacco smoking and chewing, alcohol drinking and lung cancer risk among men in southern India.

In India, lung cancer is one of the most common and lethal cancers, and tobacco smoking remains its most important etiologic factors. The objective of our study is to examine the effects of different tobacco consumption forms, including smoking and chewing, on lung cancer risk of men in southern India, especially to compare the effects of bidi smoking to cigarette smoking on lung carcinogenesis. We also evaluated the possible role of Indian alcohol beverages and non-Indian alcohol beverages on lung carcinogenesis. We conducted a case-control study in Chennai and Trivandrum. In total, 778 lung cancer cases and 3,430 controls, including 1,503 cancer controls and 1,927 healthy controls, were recruited. The effects of cigarette, bidi smoking, chewing and alcohol drinking on the risk of lung cancer were estimated from unconditional multivariate logistic regression. We also applied the generalized additive model (GAM) with locally-weighted running-line smoothers (loess) to find the most plausible curve for the dose-response relationship. The results from GAM suggest a plateau after 35 years of smoking or 10 cigarette-equivalent pack-years for both cigarette and bidi. The OR is 4.54 (95%CI=2.96-6.95) and 6.45 (95%CI=4.38-9.50) for more than 30 years of cigarette-only and bidi-only smoking, respectively, and 6.87 (95%CI=4.62-10.2) and 10.7 (95%CI=5.82-19.6) for more than 12 weighted cumulative cigarette-only and bidi-only consumption, respectively. The lung cancer risk of former cigarette smokers drops down more quickly after quitting smoking compared to former bidi smokers. There is no evidence for the effect of chewing and lung cancer risk nor clear evidence of an effect of overall alcohol drinking among never-smokers, although Indian alcohol drinking seemed to remain associated with lung cancer risk under limited power (OR=2.67, 95%CI=1.02-7.02). Bidi smoking seems to have a stronger carcinogenic effect than cigarette smoking: this difference holds no matter which aspect of smoking was considered. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A modest proposal for a longitudinal study of dementia prevention (with apologies to Jonathan Swift, 1729).

Many studies have documented the role of risk and protective factors for late life dementing illnesses, particularly Alzheimer's disease. A "Systematic Review" from the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the National Institute on Aging concluded that because the overall quality of evidence was low, recommendations for public health could not be made. In order to gain evidence for the efficacy of lifestyle interventions, we propose a "Modest Proposal" to study 10,000 subjects over 40 years randomly assigned to groups of low or high saturated fat in the diet, head injury, and high or low levels of mental activity, physical activity, or inactivity as well as smoking or non-smoking. This proposed study cannot be accomplished. The "Modest Proposal" illustrates that the absence of definitive evidence should not restrict physicians from making reasonable recommendations based on the evidence that is available.

Whole-grain consumption is associated with a reduced risk of noncardiovascular, noncancer death attributed to inflammatory diseases in the Iowa Wom...

BACKGROUND: It has recently been shown that oxidative stress, infection, and inflammation are predominant pathophysiologic factors for several major diseases. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of whole-grain intake with death attributed to noncardiovascular, noncancer inflammatory diseases. DESIGN: Postmenopausal women (n = 41 836) aged 55-69 y at baseline in 1986 were followed for 17 y. After exclusions for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, colitis, and liver cirrhosis at baseline, 27 312 participants remained, of whom 5552 died during the 17 y. A proportional hazards regression model was adjusted for age, smoking, adiposity, education, physical activity, and other dietary factors. RESULTS: Inflammation-related death was inversely associated with whole-grain intake. Compared with the hazard ratios in women who rarely or never ate whole-grain foods, the hazard ratio was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.83) for those who consumed 4-7 servings/wk, 0.79 (0.66, 0.95) for 7.5-10.5 servings/wk, 0.64 (0.53, 0.79) for 11-18.5 servings/wk, and 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) for >or=19 servings/wk (P for trend = 0.01). Previously reported inverse associations of whole-grain intake with total and coronary heart disease mortality persisted after 17 y of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in inflammatory mortality associated with habitual whole-grain intake was larger than that previously reported for coronary heart disease and diabetes. Because a variety of phytochemicals are found in whole grains that may directly or indirectly inhibit oxidative stress, and because oxidative stress is an inevitable consequence of inflammation, we suggest that oxidative stress reduction by constituents of whole grain is a likely mechanism for the protective effect.

Dietary factors and cancer mortality among atomic-bomb survivors.

Dietary factors such as fruit and vegetables are thought to reduce the risk of cancer incidence and mortality. We investigated the effect of a diet rich in fruit and vegetables against the long-term effects of radiation exposure on the risk of cancer. A cohort of 36,228 atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for whom radiation dose estimates were currently available, had their diet assessed in 1980. They were followed for a period of 20 years for cancer mortality. The joint-effect of fruit and vegetables intake and radiation exposure on risk of cancer death was examined, in additive (sum of effects of diet alone and radiation alone) and multiplicative (product of effects of diet alone and radiation alone) models. In the additive model, a daily intake of fruit and vegetables significantly reduced the risk of cancer deaths by 13%, compared to an intake of once or less per week. Radiation exposure of 1 Sievert (Sv) increased significantly the risk of cancer death by 48-49%. The additive joint-effects showed a lower risk of cancer among those exposed to 1 Sv who had a diet rich in vegetables (49%-13%=36%) or fruit (48%-13%=35%). The multiplicative model gave similar results. The cancer risk reduction by vegetables in exposed persons went from 52% (effect of radiation alone) to 32% (product of effect of vegetables and radiation), and cancer risk reduction by fruit was 52% (radiation alone) to 34% (product of effect of fruit and radiation). There was no significant evidence to reject either the additive or the multiplicative model. A daily intake of fruit and vegetables was beneficial to the persons exposed to radiation in reducing their risks of cancer death.

Profits and pandemics: prevention of harmful effects of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink industries.

The 2011 UN high-level meeting on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) called for multisectoral action including with the private sector and industry. However, through the sale and promotion of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink (unhealthy commodities), transnational corporations are major drivers of global epidemics of NCDs. What role then should these industries have in NCD prevention and control? We emphasise the rise in sales of these unhealthy commodities in low-income and middle-income countries, and consider the common strategies that the transnational corporations use to undermine NCD prevention and control. We assess the effectiveness of self-regulation, public-private partnerships, and public regulation models of interaction with these industries and conclude that unhealthy commodity industries should have no role in the formation of national or international NCD policy. Despite the common reliance on industry self-regulation and public-private partnerships, there is no evidence of their effectiveness or safety. Public regulation and market intervention are the only evidence-based mechanisms to prevent harm caused by the unhealthy commodity industries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dose–Response Relationship of Prenatal Mercury Exposure and IQ: An Integrative Analysis of Epidemiologic Data

Background Prenatal exposure to mercury has been associated with adverse childhood neurologic outcomes in epidemiologic studies. Dose–response information for this relationship is useful for estimating benefits of reduced mercury exposure. Objectives We estimated a dose–response relationship between maternal mercury body burden and subsequent childhood decrements in intelligence quotient (IQ), using a Bayesian hierarchical model to integrate data from three epidemiologic studies. Methods Inputs to the model consist of dose–response coefficients from studies conducted in the Faroe Islands, New Zealand, and the Seychelles Islands. IQ coefficients were available from previous work for the latter two studies, and a coefficient for the Faroe Islands study was estimated from three IQ subtests. Other tests of cognition/achievement were included in the hierarchical model to obtain more accurate estimates of study-to-study and end point–to–end point variability. Results We find a central estimate of −0.18 IQ points (95% confidence interval, −0.378 to −0.009) for each parts per million increase of maternal hair mercury, similar to the estimates for both the Faroe Islands and Seychelles studies, and lower in magnitude than the estimate for the New Zealand study. Sensitivity analyses produce similar results, with the IQ coefficient central estimate ranging from −0.13 to −0.25. Conclusions IQ is a useful end point for estimating neurodevelopmental effects, but may not fully represent cognitive deficits associated with mercury exposure, and does not represent deficits related to attention and motor skills. Nevertheless, the integrated IQ coefficient provides a more robust description of the dose–response relationship for prenatal mercury exposure and cognitive functioning than results of any single study.

Cannabis and the lung.

The use of cannabis is embedded within many societies, mostly used by the young and widely perceived to be safe. Increasing concern regarding the potential for cannabis to cause mental health effects has dominated cannabis research and the potential adverse respiratory effects have received relatively little attention. Studies on cannabis are challenging and subject to confounding by concomitant use of tobacco and other social factors, and while many of the studies referred to in this review are beset by the difficulties inherent in undertaking epidemiological research of the effects of cannabis, there is an emerging concern among many chest physicians who would suggest that habitual smoking of cannabis may contribute to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumothorax and respiratory infections, including tuberculosis. Special attention should be given to the risk of lung cancer, particularly as biological plausibility may precede epidemiology.

Political context of the World Health Organization: sugar industry threatens to scupper the WHO.

The Sugar Association, representing the U.S. sugar industry, is highly critical of a WHO report on guidelines for healthy eating, which suggests that sugar should account for no more than 10 percent of a healthy diet. The association has demanded that Congress end its funding of the World Health Organization unless the WHO withdraws the guidelines, and the association and six other big food industry groups have also asked the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services to use his influence to get the WHO report withdrawn. The WHO strongly rejects the sugar lobby's criticisms.

One-year study on the variation of carotenoid antioxidant substances in living human skin: influence of dietary supplementation and stress factors.

Variation in the level of the carotenoid antioxidant substances beta-carotene and lycopene in the human skin of ten healthy volunteers was measured with resonance Raman spectroscopy in an in vivo experiment over the course of 12 months. Information on the lifestyle of the volunteers concerning dietary supplementation and stress factors was obtained daily by the completion of questionnaires. The results showed individual variations in the levels of carotenoid antioxidant substances in the skin of the volunteers, which strongly correlated to specific lifestyles, such as the intake of dietary supplementations rich in carotenoids, and the influence of stress factors. A carotenoid-rich nutrition, based on large amounts of fruit and vegetables, increased the measured carotenoid levels of skin, while stress factors such as fatigue, illness, smoking, and alcohol consumption gave rise to a decrease in carotenoid levels of the skin. These decreases occurred relatively quickly over the course of one day, while the subsequent increases lasted for up to 3 days. During the summer and autumn months, an increase in the level of carotenoids in the skin was measured for all volunteers. The average "seasonal increase" of the carotenoid content in the skin was determined to be 1.26-fold.

Lumbar disc degeneration: correlation with age, sex, and spine level in 600 autopsy specimens.

Using data from 16 published reports, the authors correlated macroscopic disc degeneration grades with age, sex, and spine level in 600 lumbar intervertebral discs from 273 cadavers (ages: 0-96 years). Male discs were more degenerated than female discs at most ages; significantly so in the second, fifth, sixth, and seventh decades. On average, L4-L5 and L3-L4 level discs showed more degeneration than discs at other lumbar levels. These macroscopic findings corroborate radiographic data from epidemiologic studies. The calculations suggest that higher mechanical stress, perhaps combined with longer nutritional pathways, may be responsible for the earlier degeneration of male discs.

Is the asthma epidemic still ascending?

Asthma is a phenotypically heterogeneous disorder of multifactorial origins that affects 300 million people suffering from asthma and more than 250,000 asthma-related deaths each year. Although treatment for asthma has improved, its prevalence continues to increase, particularly in low and middle income countries, or in some ethnic groups in which prevalence was previously low. Observed spatio-temporal variations in the increased prevalence of asthma depend on exposure to environmental factors. Recently, several arguments are also in favor of the involvement of host susceptibility and stress in the observed increase of asthma prevalence. Further investigations are warranted to better understand mechanisms underlying asthma increase or stagnation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Richard Pearson Strong and the iatrogenic plague disaster in Bilibid Prison, Manila, 1906.

In November 1906, Richard Pearson Strong, then head of the Philippine Biological Laboratory, inoculated 24 men--inmates of Manila's Bilibid Prison--with a cholera vaccine that somehow had been contaminated with plague organisms; 13 men died. The governor-general of the Philippines appointed a general committee to investigate the affair, and the U.S. Senate demanded information about the episode. Although the Senate, the secretary of war, and even the president were kept informed of developments, no mainland investigations ensued. The general committee concluded that Strong was negligent for not having locks on his incubators and for leaving a visiting physician alone in the laboratory, where he might have mixed up the cholera and plague cultures on the fateful day. The committee's charge was referred to the attorney general, who found Strong innocent of criminal negligence, whereupon the governor-general exonerated Strong. Strong was despondent over Bilibid but recovered and developed a noteworthy career in American tropical medicine. In retrospect, the disaster at Bilibid presents an epitome of the problems surrounding the use of prisoner-subjects without authorization and without their voluntary consent. Far ahead of its time, the general committee recognized and condemned the shortcomings and urged reform, pleas the government ignored. The Bilibid episode remains, however, as a cautionary tale for those engaged in clinical research.

Prevalence of dementia in older Japanese-American men in Hawaii: The Honolulu-Asia Aging Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence of dementia and its subtypes in Japanese-American men and compare these findings with rates reported for populations in Japan and elsewhere. DESIGN AND SETTING: The Honolulu Heart Program is a prospective population-based study of cardiovascular disease established in 1965. Prevalence estimates were computed from cases identified at the 1991 to 1993 examination. Cognitive performance was assessed using standardized methods, instruments, and diagnostic criteria. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects were 3734 Japanese-American men (80% of surviving cohort) aged 71 through 93 years, living in the community or in institutions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-specific, age-standardized, and cohort prevalence estimates were computed for dementia (all cause) defined by 2 sets of diagnostic criteria and 4 levels of severity. Prevalence levels for Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia were also estimated. RESULTS: Dementia prevalence by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised ranged from 2.1% in men aged 71 through 74 years to 33.4% in men aged 85 through 93 years. Age-standardized prevalence was 7.6%. Prevalence estimates for the cohort were 9.3% for dementia (all cause), 5.4% for Alzheimer disease (primary or contributing), and 4.2% for vascular dementia (primary or contributing). More than 1 possible cause was found in 26% of cases. The Alzheimer disease/vascular dementia ratio was 1.5 for cases attributed primarily to Alzheimer disease or vascular dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of Alzheimer disease in older Japanese-American men in Hawaii appears to be higher than in Japan but similar to European-ancestry populations. Prevalence of vascular dementia appears to be slightly lower than in Japan, but higher than in European-ancestry populations. Further cross-national research with emphasis on standardized diagnostic methods is needed.

Meat and fish consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer death worldwide with large geographical variation, which implies the contribution of diet and lifestyle in its etiology. We examined the association of meat and fish consumption with risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 477,202 EPIC participants from 10 European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were included in our analysis. Until 2008, 865 nonendocrine pancreatic cancer cases have been observed. Calibrated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using multivariable-adjusted Cox hazard regression models. The consumption of red meat (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.93-1.14) and processed meat (RR per 50 g increase per day = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.71-1.23) were not associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk. Poultry consumption tended to be associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.04-2.84); however, there was no association with fish consumption (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.92-1.62). Our results do not support the conclusion of the World Cancer Research Fund that red or processed meat consumption may possibly increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. The positive association of poultry consumption with pancreatic cancer might be a chance finding as it contradicts most previous findings. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

Mortality from malignant diseases-update of the Baltimore union poultry cohort.

We previously studied mortality up to 1989 in 2,639 members of a local union who had ever worked in poultry slaughtering and processing plants, because they were exposed to oncogenic viruses present in poultry. In this report, cancer mortality was updated to the year 2003 for 2,580 of the 2,639 subjects who worked exclusively in poultry plants. Mortality in poultry workers was compared with that in the US general population through the estimation of proportional mortality and standardized mortality ratios separately for each race/sex group and for the whole cohort. Compared to the US general population, an excess of cancers of the buccal and nasal cavities and pharynx (base of the tongue, palate and other unspecified mouth, tonsil and oropharynx, nasal cavity/middle ear/accessory sinus), esophagus, recto-sigmoid/rectum/anus, liver and intrabiliary system, myelofibrosis, lymphoid leukemia and multiple myeloma was observed in particular subgroups or in the entire poultry cohort. We hypothesize that oncogenic viruses present in poultry, and exposure to fumes, are candidates for an etiologic role to explain the excess occurrence of at least some of these cancers in the poultry workers. Larger studies which can control for confounding factors are urgently needed to determine the significance of these findings.

Egg consumption and risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the dose-response relationship between egg consumption and the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE database through December 2012. Fixed- or random-effects model was used to pool the relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses was performed to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Weighted linear regression model was used to estimate the dose-response relationship. RESULTS: Fourteen studies involving 320,778 subjects were included. The pooled RRs of the risk of CVD, CVD for separated diabetes patients, and diabetes for the highest vs lowest egg intake were 1.19 (95% CI 1.02-1.38), 1.83 (95% CI 1.42-2.37), 1.68 (95% CI 1.41-2.00), respectively. For each 4/week increment in egg intake, the RRs of the risk for CVD, CVD for separated diabetes patients, diabetes was 1.06 (95% CI 1.03-1.10), 1.40 (95% CI 1.25-1.57), 1.29 (95% CI 1.21-1.37), respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that population in other western countries have increased CVD than ones in USA (RR 2.00, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.51 vs 1.13, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.30, P = 0.02 for subgroup difference). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that there is a dose-response positive association between egg consumption and the risk of CVD and diabetes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Baker's yeast beta-glucan supplement reduces upper respiratory symptoms and improves mood state in stressed women.

OBJECTIVE: Several studies have shown a baker's yeast beta-1,3/1,6-d-glucan, extracted from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, is effective in reducing the incidence of cold and flu symptoms. This study evaluated the effect of a specific beta-glucan supplement (Wellmune) on upper respiratory tract symptoms and psychological well-being in women with moderate levels of psychological stress. METHODS: Healthy women (38 ± 12 years old) prescreened for moderate levels of psychological stress, self-administered a placebo (n = 38) or 250 mg of Wellmune (n = 39) daily for 12 weeks. We used the Profile of Mood States (POMS) psychological survey to assess changes in mental/physical energy levels (vigor) and overall well-being (global mood state). A quantitative health perception log was used to track upper respiratory symptoms. RESULTS: Subjects in the Wellmune group reported fewer upper respiratory symptoms compared to placebo (10% vs 29%), better overall well-being (global mood state: 99 ± 19 vs 108 ± 23, p < 0.05), and superior mental/physical energy levels (vigor: 19.9 ± 4.7 vs 15.8 ± 6.3, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These data show that daily dietary supplementation with Wellmune reduces upper respiratory symptoms and improves mood state in stressed subjects, and thus it may be a useful approach for maintaining immune protection against daily stressors.

Mortality in the Baltimore union poultry cohort: non-malignant diseases.

BACKGROUND: Workers in poultry plants have high exposure to a variety of transmissible agents present in poultry and their products. Subjects in the general population are also exposed. It is not known whether many of these agents cause disease in humans. If they do, we reason this would be readily evident in a highly exposed group such as poultry workers. We report here on mortality from non-malignant diseases in a cohort of poultry workers. METHODS: Mortality was compared with that of the US general population, and with that of a comparison group from the same union. Risk was estimated by standardized mortality ratio, proportional mortality ratio, and directly standardized risk ratio. RESULTS: Poultry workers as a group had an overall excess of deaths from diabetes, anterior horn disease, and hypertensive disease, and a deficit of deaths from intracerebral hemorrhage. Deaths from zoonotic bacterial diseases, helminthiasis, myasthenia gravis, schizophrenia, other diseases of the spinal cord, diseases of the esophagus and peritonitis were non-significantly elevated overall by all analyses, and significantly so in particular race/sex subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Poultry workers may have excess occurrence of disease affecting several organs and systems, probably originating from widespread infection with a variety of microorganisms. The results for neurologic diseases could well represent important clues to the etiology of these diseases in humans. The small numbers of deaths involved in some cases limit interpretation.

Risk Factors for Mortality in the Nurses’ Health Study: A Competing Risks Analysis

Few studies have examined multiple risk factors for mortality or formally compared their associations across specific causes of death. The authors used competing risks survival analysis to evaluate associations of lifestyle and dietary factors with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among 50,112 participants in the Nurses’ Health Study. There were 4,893 deaths between 1986 and 2004: 1,026 from cardiovascular disease, 931 from smoking-related cancers, 1,430 from cancers not related to smoking, and 1,506 from all other causes. Age, body mass index at age 18 years, weight change, height, current smoking and pack-years of smoking, glycemic load, cholesterol intake, systolic blood pressure and use of blood pressure medications, diabetes, parental myocardial infarction before age 60 years, and time since menopause were directly related to all-cause mortality, whereas there were inverse associations for physical activity and intakes of nuts, polyunsaturated fat, and cereal fiber. Moderate alcohol consumption was associated with decreased mortality. A model that incorporated differences in the associations of some risk factors with specific causes of death had a significantly better fit compared with a model in which all risk factors had common associations across all causes. In the future, this new model may be used to identify individuals at increased risk of mortality.

Greater whole-grain intake is associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and weight gain.

Whole-grain and high fiber intakes are routinely recommended for prevention of vascular diseases; however, there are no comprehensive and quantitative assessments of available data in humans. The aim of this study was to systematically examine longitudinal studies investigating whole-grain and fiber intake in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), weight gain, and metabolic risk factors. We identified 45 prospective cohort studies and 21 randomized-controlled trials (RCT) between 1966 and February 2012 by searching the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane, Elsevier Medical Database, and PubMed. Study characteristics, whole-grain and dietary fiber intakes, and risk estimates were extracted using a standardized protocol. Using random effects models, we found that compared with never/rare consumers of whole grains, those consuming 48-80 g whole grain/d (3-5 serving/d) had an ~26% lower risk of T2D [RR = 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.80)], ~21% lower risk of CVD [RR = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.85)], and consistently less weight gain during 8-13 y (1.27 vs 1.64 kg; P = 0.001). Among RCT, weighted mean differences in post-intervention circulating concentrations of fasting glucose and total and LDL-cholesterol comparing whole-grain intervention groups with controls indicated significantly lower concentrations after whole-grain interventions [differences in fasting glucose: -0.93 mmol/L (95% CI: -1.65, -0.21), total cholesterol: -0.83 mmol/L (-1.23, -0.42); and LDL-cholesterol: -0.82 mmol/L (-1.31, -0.33)]. [corrected] Findings from this meta-analysis provide evidence to support beneficial effects of whole-grain intake on vascular disease prevention. Potential mechanisms responsible for whole grains' effects on metabolic intermediates require further investigation in large intervention trials.

Organochlorine Exposure and Incidence of Diabetes in a Cohort of Great Lakes Sport Fish Consumers

Background Studies have demonstrated ubiquitous human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as p,p′-diphenyldichloroethene (DDE) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Although there is considerable evidence that POP exposures are associated with prevalent diabetes, these studies do not establish causality because the cross-sectional study design does not allow for assessment of temporality of the exposure–disease association. Prospective studies, however, have been lacking. Objectives This study was designed to determine whether POP body burdens are related to incidence of diabetes in a cohort of Great Lakes sport fish consumers. Methods The cohort was established in the early 1990s and followed through 2005. We tested serum for DDE and PCB congeners and assessed diabetes diagnosis, demographics, and fish consumption. Associations of diabetes with exposures were examined prospectively in participants without diabetes in 1994–1995, followed through 2005. Annual percent changes in DDE and PCB-132/153 from 1994 to 2005 were examined by diabetes status. Results DDE exposure was associated with incident diabetes. Incident diabetes was not associated with mono-ortho PCB-118, total PCBs, or years of sport fish consumption. Annual percent change in DDE and PCB-132/153 did not differ significantly by diabetes status. Conclusions This study demonstrates an association between DDE exposure and incident diabetes. The findings of an association of DDE with incident diabetes and the lack of effect of diabetes on annual percent change in POPs do not support the hypothesis that associations of POPs with diabetes are attributable to reverse causality. Additional studies should address the biological pathways by which DDE could affect glucose homeostasis.