the following table compares our forecast of consumer loan collection rates as of december 31 , 2018 , with the forecasts as of december 31 , 2017 , as of december 31 , 2016 , and at the time of assignment , segmented by year of assignment : replace_table_token_9_th ( 1 ) represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the consumer loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the consumer loans at the time of assignment . contractual repayments include both principal and interest . forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled consumer loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates in the table . consumer loans assigned in 2009 through 2013 , 2017 and 2018 have yielded forecasted collection results materially better than our initial estimates , while consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 have yielded forecasted collection results materially worse than our initial estimates . for consumer loans assigned in 2014 , actual results have been close to our initial estimates . for the year ended december 31 , 2018 , forecasted collection rates improved for consumer loans assigned in 2018 , declined for consumer loans assigned in 2016 and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented . for the year ended december 31 , 2017 , forecasted collection rates improved for consumer loans assigned in 2017 , declined for consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented . the changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows ( forecasted collections less forecasted dealer holdback payments ) as follows : replace_table_token_10_th 25 in addition to the statistical model used to forecast collection rates , we use a model to forecast the timing of future net cash flows . during the fourth quarter of 2017 , we updated our net cash flow timing model to incorporate more recent data . the revised forecast resulted in an expected cash flow stream with a lower net present value as compared to the prior forecast , as less cash flows were expected in earlier periods and more cash flows were expected in later periods . the reduction in net present value was primarily the result of a change in the expected timing of cash flows from longer-term consumer loans . due to our limited historical experience with longer-term consumer loans , our prior model relied on extrapolations from the historical performance of shorter-term consumer loans to predict the timing of future net cash flows on longer-term consumer loans . we used our additional historical experience on these longer-term loans to refine our estimate . the revision to our net cash flow timing forecast did not impact the amount of undiscounted net cash flows we expected to receive . as a result , the dollar amount of future net portfolio revenue ( finance charges less provision for credit losses ) was not impacted by the revision . however , the revision did impact the period in which those net revenues are recorded as a portion of the impact of the revised timing estimate was recorded as a current period expense and a portion was recorded as a yield adjustment . for the fourth quarter of 2017 , the revision increased provision for credit losses by $ 41.6 million , reduced finance charge revenue by $ 7.3 million and reduced net income by $ 30.8 million . the revision reduced the yield on our loan portfolio by 90 basis points , which impacts the timing of revenue recognition in future periods . during the fourth quarter of 2016 , we enhanced our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future collections on consumer loans through the utilization of more recent data and new forecast variables . implementation of the enhanced forecasting methodology as of october 31 , 2016 did not have a material impact on provision for credit losses or net income ; however , it did reduce forecasted net cash flows by $ 1.8 million , all of which related to dealer loans . the implementation also decreased the forecasted collection rates for consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 and increased the forecasted collection rates for consumer loans assigned in 2011 through 2013. the following table presents information on the average consumer loan assignment for each of the last ten years : replace_table_token_11_th ( 1 ) represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on consumer loans at the time of assignment , which include both principal and interest . ( 2 ) represents advances paid to dealers on consumer loans assigned under our portfolio program and one-time payments made to dealers to purchase consumer loans assigned under our purchase program . payments of dealer holdback and accelerated dealer holdback are not included . forecasting collection rates accurately at loan inception is difficult . with this in mind , we establish advance rates that are intended to allow us to achieve acceptable levels of profitability , even if collection rates are less than we initially forecast . 26 the following table presents forecasted consumer loan collection rates , advance rates , the spread ( the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate ) , and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of december 31 , 2018 . all amounts , unless otherwise noted , are presented as a percentage of the initial balance of the consumer loan ( principal + interest ) . the table includes both dealer loans and purchased loans . story_separator_special_tag the increase of $ 22.5 million , or 23.0 % , was due to increases in the average outstanding debt balance and our average cost of debt , as follows : replace_table_token_24_th ( 1 ) includes the unamortized debt discount and excludes deferred debt issuance costs . the average outstanding debt balance increased primarily due to debt proceeds used to fund growth in new consumer loan assignments and stock repurchases . the increase in our average cost of debt was primarily a result of a change in the mix of our outstanding debt . provision for income taxes . for the year ended december 31 , 2017 , the effective income tax rate decreased to 19.5 % from 37.3 % for the year ended december 31 , 2016. the decrease was primarily due to the enactment of the 2017 tax act in december 2017 , which resulted in a one-time reversal of $ 99.8 million of provision for income taxes in 2017. while the 2017 tax act lowered our federal statutory income tax rate from 35 % in 2017 and 2016 to 21 % in 2018 , we were required to revalue deferred taxes and uncertain tax positions as of december 31 , 2017 at the lower federal statutory income tax rate . based on currently enacted federal and state statutory income tax rates , we believe our long-term effective income tax rate will average approximately 23 % in future years . for additional information , see note 12 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . 36 critical accounting estimates our consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with gaap . the preparation of these financial statements requires management to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period . on an ongoing basis , we review our accounting policies , assumptions , estimates and judgments to ensure that our financial statements are presented fairly and in accordance with gaap . our significant accounting policies are discussed in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . we believe that the following accounting estimates are the most critical to aid in fully understanding and evaluating our reported financial results , and involve a high degree of subjective or complex judgment , and the use of different estimates or assumptions could produce materially different financial results . finance charge revenue & allowance for credit losses nature of estimates required . we estimate the amount and timing of future collections and dealer holdback payments . these estimates impact loans receivable and allowance for credit losses on our balance sheet and finance charges and provision for credit losses on our income statement . assumptions and approaches used . for accounting purposes , we are not considered to be an originator of consumer loans , but instead are considered to be a lender to our dealers for consumer loans assigned under our portfolio program , and a purchaser of consumer loans assigned under our purchase program . as a result of this classification , our accounting policies for recognizing finance charge revenue and determining our allowance for credit losses may be different from other lenders in our market , who , based on their different business models , may be considered to be a direct lender to consumers for accounting purposes . for additional information regarding our classification as a lender to our dealers for accounting purposes , see note 1 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . we recognize finance charges under the interest method such that revenue is recognized on a level-yield basis based upon forecasted cash flows . for dealer loans , finance charge revenue and the allowance for credit losses are calculated after first aggregating dealer loans outstanding for each dealer . for the same purpose , purchased loans are aggregated according to the month the loan was purchased . an allowance for credit losses is maintained at an amount that reduces the net asset value ( loan balance less the allowance ) to the value of forecasted future cash flows discounted at the yield established at the time of assignment . future cash flows are comprised of estimated future collections on the loans , less any estimated dealer holdback payments related to dealer loans . we write off loans once there are no forecasted future collections on any of the associated consumer loans . actual cash flows from any individual dealer loan or pool of purchased loans are often different than estimated cash flows at the time of assignment . if such difference is favorable , the difference is recognized prospectively into income over the remaining life of the dealer loan or pool of purchased loans through a yield adjustment . if such difference is unfavorable , a provision for credit losses is recorded immediately as a current period expense and a corresponding allowance for credit losses is established . because differences between estimated cash flows at the time of assignment and actual cash flows occur often , an allowance is required for a significant portion of our loan portfolio . an allowance for credit losses does not necessarily indicate that a dealer loan or pool of purchased loans is unprofitable , and in recent years , seldom are cash flows from a dealer loan or pool of purchased loans insufficient to repay the initial amounts advanced or paid to the dealer . future collections are forecasted for each individual dealer loan or pool of purchased loans based on the historical performance of consumer loans with similar characteristics , adjusted for recent trends in payment patterns .

cash and cash equivalents increased to $ 25.7 million as of december 31 , 2018 from $ 8.2 million as of december 31 , 2017 . as of december 31 , 2018 and december 31 , 2017 we had $ 1,153.1 million and $ 1,161.1 million in unused and available lines of credit , respectively . our total balance sheet indebtedness increased to $ 3,820.9 million as of december 31 , 2018 from $ 3,070.8 million as of december 31 , 2017 primarily due to the growth in new consumer loan assignments and stock repurchases . contractual obligations a summary of the total future contractual obligations requiring repayments as of december 31 , 2018 is as follows : replace_table_token_25_th ( 1 ) long-term debt obligations included in the above table consist solely of principal repayments . the amounts are presented on a principal basis to exclude deferred debt issuance costs of $ 20.5 million and the unamortized debt discount of $ 1.1 million . we are also obligated to make interest payments at the applicable interest rates , as discussed in note 9 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . based on the actual amounts outstanding under our revolving secured line of credit , our warehouse facilities , and our senior notes as of december 31 , 2018 , the forecasted amounts outstanding on all other debt and the actual interest rates in effect as of december 31 , 2018 , interest is expected to be approximately $ 130.4 million during 2019 ; $ 96.1 million during 2020 ; and $ 70.9 million during 2021 and thereafter . ( 2 ) we have contractual obligations to pay dealer holdback to our dealers . payments of dealer holdback are contingent upon the receipt of consumer payments and the repayment of advances . the amounts presented represent our forecast as of december 31 , 2018 . ( 3 ) purchase obligations consist primarily of contractual obligations related to our information system and facility needs . ( 4 ) other future obligations included in the above table consist solely of reserves for uncertain tax positions .


 Write a concise suspicious activity report of the following text delimited by triple backquotes. Return your response as a formal report which covers the key points highlighting the location,dates,entity names and account holder information in chronological order of the text.
     ```cash and cash equivalents increased to $ 25.7 million as of december 31 , 2018 from $ 8.2 million as of december 31 , 2017 . as of december 31 , 2018 and december 31 , 2017 we had $ 1,153.1 million and $ 1,161.1 million in unused and available lines of credit , respectively . our total balance sheet indebtedness increased to $ 3,820.9 million as of december 31 , 2018 from $ 3,070.8 million as of december 31 , 2017 primarily due to the growth in new consumer loan assignments and stock repurchases . contractual obligations a summary of the total future contractual obligations requiring repayments as of december 31 , 2018 is as follows : replace_table_token_25_th ( 1 ) long-term debt obligations included in the above table consist solely of principal repayments . the amounts are presented on a principal basis to exclude deferred debt issuance costs of $ 20.5 million and the unamortized debt discount of $ 1.1 million . we are also obligated to make interest payments at the applicable interest rates , as discussed in note 9 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . based on the actual amounts outstanding under our revolving secured line of credit , our warehouse facilities , and our senior notes as of december 31 , 2018 , the forecasted amounts outstanding on all other debt and the actual interest rates in effect as of december 31 , 2018 , interest is expected to be approximately $ 130.4 million during 2019 ; $ 96.1 million during 2020 ; and $ 70.9 million during 2021 and thereafter . ( 2 ) we have contractual obligations to pay dealer holdback to our dealers . payments of dealer holdback are contingent upon the receipt of consumer payments and the repayment of advances . the amounts presented represent our forecast as of december 31 , 2018 . ( 3 ) purchase obligations consist primarily of contractual obligations related to our information system and facility needs . ( 4 ) other future obligations included in the above table consist solely of reserves for uncertain tax positions .
```    
 Suspicious Activity Report : the following table compares our forecast of consumer loan collection rates as of december 31 , 2018 , with the forecasts as of december 31 , 2017 , as of december 31 , 2016 , and at the time of assignment , segmented by year of assignment : replace_table_token_9_th ( 1 ) represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the consumer loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the consumer loans at the time of assignment . contractual repayments include both principal and interest . forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled consumer loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates in the table . consumer loans assigned in 2009 through 2013 , 2017 and 2018 have yielded forecasted collection results materially better than our initial estimates , while consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 have yielded forecasted collection results materially worse than our initial estimates . for consumer loans assigned in 2014 , actual results have been close to our initial estimates . for the year ended december 31 , 2018 , forecasted collection rates improved for consumer loans assigned in 2018 , declined for consumer loans assigned in 2016 and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented . for the year ended december 31 , 2017 , forecasted collection rates improved for consumer loans assigned in 2017 , declined for consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented . the changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows ( forecasted collections less forecasted dealer holdback payments ) as follows : replace_table_token_10_th 25 in addition to the statistical model used to forecast collection rates , we use a model to forecast the timing of future net cash flows . during the fourth quarter of 2017 , we updated our net cash flow timing model to incorporate more recent data . the revised forecast resulted in an expected cash flow stream with a lower net present value as compared to the prior forecast , as less cash flows were expected in earlier periods and more cash flows were expected in later periods . the reduction in net present value was primarily the result of a change in the expected timing of cash flows from longer-term consumer loans . due to our limited historical experience with longer-term consumer loans , our prior model relied on extrapolations from the historical performance of shorter-term consumer loans to predict the timing of future net cash flows on longer-term consumer loans . we used our additional historical experience on these longer-term loans to refine our estimate . the revision to our net cash flow timing forecast did not impact the amount of undiscounted net cash flows we expected to receive . as a result , the dollar amount of future net portfolio revenue ( finance charges less provision for credit losses ) was not impacted by the revision . however , the revision did impact the period in which those net revenues are recorded as a portion of the impact of the revised timing estimate was recorded as a current period expense and a portion was recorded as a yield adjustment . for the fourth quarter of 2017 , the revision increased provision for credit losses by $ 41.6 million , reduced finance charge revenue by $ 7.3 million and reduced net income by $ 30.8 million . the revision reduced the yield on our loan portfolio by 90 basis points , which impacts the timing of revenue recognition in future periods . during the fourth quarter of 2016 , we enhanced our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future collections on consumer loans through the utilization of more recent data and new forecast variables . implementation of the enhanced forecasting methodology as of october 31 , 2016 did not have a material impact on provision for credit losses or net income ; however , it did reduce forecasted net cash flows by $ 1.8 million , all of which related to dealer loans . the implementation also decreased the forecasted collection rates for consumer loans assigned in 2015 and 2016 and increased the forecasted collection rates for consumer loans assigned in 2011 through 2013. the following table presents information on the average consumer loan assignment for each of the last ten years : replace_table_token_11_th ( 1 ) represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on consumer loans at the time of assignment , which include both principal and interest . ( 2 ) represents advances paid to dealers on consumer loans assigned under our portfolio program and one-time payments made to dealers to purchase consumer loans assigned under our purchase program . payments of dealer holdback and accelerated dealer holdback are not included . forecasting collection rates accurately at loan inception is difficult . with this in mind , we establish advance rates that are intended to allow us to achieve acceptable levels of profitability , even if collection rates are less than we initially forecast . 26 the following table presents forecasted consumer loan collection rates , advance rates , the spread ( the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate ) , and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of december 31 , 2018 . all amounts , unless otherwise noted , are presented as a percentage of the initial balance of the consumer loan ( principal + interest ) . the table includes both dealer loans and purchased loans . story_separator_special_tag the increase of $ 22.5 million , or 23.0 % , was due to increases in the average outstanding debt balance and our average cost of debt , as follows : replace_table_token_24_th ( 1 ) includes the unamortized debt discount and excludes deferred debt issuance costs . the average outstanding debt balance increased primarily due to debt proceeds used to fund growth in new consumer loan assignments and stock repurchases . the increase in our average cost of debt was primarily a result of a change in the mix of our outstanding debt . provision for income taxes . for the year ended december 31 , 2017 , the effective income tax rate decreased to 19.5 % from 37.3 % for the year ended december 31 , 2016. the decrease was primarily due to the enactment of the 2017 tax act in december 2017 , which resulted in a one-time reversal of $ 99.8 million of provision for income taxes in 2017. while the 2017 tax act lowered our federal statutory income tax rate from 35 % in 2017 and 2016 to 21 % in 2018 , we were required to revalue deferred taxes and uncertain tax positions as of december 31 , 2017 at the lower federal statutory income tax rate . based on currently enacted federal and state statutory income tax rates , we believe our long-term effective income tax rate will average approximately 23 % in future years . for additional information , see note 12 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . 36 critical accounting estimates our consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with gaap . the preparation of these financial statements requires management to make estimates and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period . on an ongoing basis , we review our accounting policies , assumptions , estimates and judgments to ensure that our financial statements are presented fairly and in accordance with gaap . our significant accounting policies are discussed in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . we believe that the following accounting estimates are the most critical to aid in fully understanding and evaluating our reported financial results , and involve a high degree of subjective or complex judgment , and the use of different estimates or assumptions could produce materially different financial results . finance charge revenue & allowance for credit losses nature of estimates required . we estimate the amount and timing of future collections and dealer holdback payments . these estimates impact loans receivable and allowance for credit losses on our balance sheet and finance charges and provision for credit losses on our income statement . assumptions and approaches used . for accounting purposes , we are not considered to be an originator of consumer loans , but instead are considered to be a lender to our dealers for consumer loans assigned under our portfolio program , and a purchaser of consumer loans assigned under our purchase program . as a result of this classification , our accounting policies for recognizing finance charge revenue and determining our allowance for credit losses may be different from other lenders in our market , who , based on their different business models , may be considered to be a direct lender to consumers for accounting purposes . for additional information regarding our classification as a lender to our dealers for accounting purposes , see note 1 to the consolidated financial statements contained in item 8 of this form 10-k , which is incorporated herein by reference . we recognize finance charges under the interest method such that revenue is recognized on a level-yield basis based upon forecasted cash flows . for dealer loans , finance charge revenue and the allowance for credit losses are calculated after first aggregating dealer loans outstanding for each dealer . for the same purpose , purchased loans are aggregated according to the month the loan was purchased . an allowance for credit losses is maintained at an amount that reduces the net asset value ( loan balance less the allowance ) to the value of forecasted future cash flows discounted at the yield established at the time of assignment . future cash flows are comprised of estimated future collections on the loans , less any estimated dealer holdback payments related to dealer loans . we write off loans once there are no forecasted future collections on any of the associated consumer loans . actual cash flows from any individual dealer loan or pool of purchased loans are often different than estimated cash flows at the time of assignment . if such difference is favorable , the difference is recognized prospectively into income over the remaining life of the dealer loan or pool of purchased loans through a yield adjustment . if such difference is unfavorable , a provision for credit losses is recorded immediately as a current period expense and a corresponding allowance for credit losses is established . because differences between estimated cash flows at the time of assignment and actual cash flows occur often , an allowance is required for a significant portion of our loan portfolio . an allowance for credit losses does not necessarily indicate that a dealer loan or pool of purchased loans is unprofitable , and in recent years , seldom are cash flows from a dealer loan or pool of purchased loans insufficient to repay the initial amounts advanced or paid to the dealer . future collections are forecasted for each individual dealer loan or pool of purchased loans based on the historical performance of consumer loans with similar characteristics , adjusted for recent trends in payment patterns .

