The Anglo-German problem
Sarolea, Charles, 1870-1953
i . ;., i ; ', I -, «^N DtEGO yf 0^^^ <9M^ ^. Digitized by tine Internet Arcliive. in 2007 witli funding from IVIicrosoft Corporation littp://www.arcliive.org/details/anglogermanproblOOsaroiala THE ANGLO-GERMAN PROBLEM "jim THE ANGLO -GERMAN PROBLEM BY CHARLES SAROLEA, D.Ph., D.Litt. F.R.S. (Edin.) EDITOR OF "EVERYMAN" HEAD OF THE FRENCH DEPARTMENT IN THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH THOMAS NELSON AND SONS LONDON, EDINBURGH, DUBLIN LEEDS, MELBOURNE, AND NEW YORK LEIPZIG: 35-37 KOnigstrasse. PARIS: 189, rue Saint-Jacques First Published in igi2 CONTENTS. Preface ...... Introduction ..... Why does Europe distrust Germany ? Some Paradoxes and Contradictions of Modern Germany Prussia and Germany Reaction in Germany Militarism in Germany A Prussian General on the Coming War Nationalism in Germany and the Perversion of Patriotism .... How Prussia treats her own Subjects The First German Grievance. The Baghdad Railway and German Expan- sion in the Near East The Second German Grievance Is German Socialism making for Peace .? The German Kaiser .... Conclusion ..... Sources consulted .... PAGE 7 19 49 68 105 129 156 182 207 230 247 281 296 306 350 369 PREFACE. I. It is the object of the following pages, exhaust- ively and systematically, to study the Anglo- German problem in all its bearings, without reticence or ambiguity. I think it is high time that such a study should be undertaken. We are told, it is true, that the less said about a delicate situation the better. I do not believe it. I believe in outspokenness, in a free and frank discussion, provided the discussion be based on a thorough knowledge of the facts. Two great people must not be arraid of facing realities such as they are. In the words of Professor Harnack : "A per- manent peace can only be achieved by hard intellectual effort and intellectual honesty," The first condition of a mutual understanding between England and Germany is that the whole case be brought before the tribunal of public opinion, that the truth, the whole truth, be told, that a festering wound be searched. The doctor who wants to cure a dangerous disease will not effect a cure by merely denying 8 PREFACE. the danger, or by making light of the disease, or by trusting to the vis curativa of nature. No ! Rather will he investigate and probe the wound. And he will not be afraid of inflicting pain, if inflicting pain means the salvation of the patient. By all means let us be sympathetic and concilia- tory to our German cousins, let us be unstinting in our appreciation of their intellectual, artistic, and moral qualities, of their magnificent achieve- ments. But also let us not cover up the defects of their character and the shortcomings of their policy, and let us not load their sins on our own shoulders. Christian humility is a great virtue, but even the most humble Christian would not confess to a sin which had been committed by somebody else ; for to make such a confession would be to tell a lie, and it is neither necessary nor desirable to tell a lie for the purpose of con- ciliating an opponent. England cannot honestly admit the truth and reality of German grievances. England cannot admit that in the past she has ever adopted an attitude of contemptuous superiority towards the German people. Still less can England admit that she has systematically stood in the way of German colonial ambitions. She cannot admit it, for the simple reason that only a few years ago >those German colonial ambitions did not exist. Almost to the end of his long rule, Bismarck would not have colonies, and he deliberately PREFACE. 9 encouraged France in that policy of African expansion which Germany now objects to. Germany would probably have had a much larger colonial empire if she had chosen to have it. History teaches us that in the development of European colonization there are some nations, like the Spaniards and Portuguese, that have come too early in the field. There are other nations, like England and Russia, that have come in the nick of time. And, finally, there are nations that have come too late. The German people have arrived too late in the race for colonial empire. They may regret it, but surely it would be monstrous to use the fact as a grievance against the people of this country. 1 may bitterly regret that twenty years ago I had not the money or the energy or the foresight to invest in the development of Argentine, or that I did not buy an estate in Canada, which in those early days 1 might have got for a hundred pounds, and which to-day would be worth hundreds of thousands. But that is no reason why I should hate the present possessors of landed property in the Far West or in the Far South. That is no reason why I should wish to dispossess them of land which they have legitimately acquired, whether they owe it to their luck or to their pluck, to favourable circumstances or to their initiative and per- severance. lo PREFACE. It is a consummation devoutly to be wished that the two nations should approach the settle- ment of their differences in a spirit of conciliation and goodwill, but 1 do not see how the cause of peace can be promoted by encouraging a belief in the German people that they have a long standing score to settle. Let that belief once become a rooted conviction in their minds, and it will rankle and fester. On the contrary, let the German people be convinced that untoward circumstances or lack of foresight in their own statesmen are entirely to blame if their colonial ambitions are not to-day fulfilled or if they experience political difficulties at home, and the rancour and hatred against England will dis- appear from their hearts. II. But because I refuse to believe that there is any justification in German grievances, I do not therefore agree with those well-meaning English writers who assert that the Anglo -German misunderstandings are entirely unreal, and that the present strained relations and the present ill- feeling between the two nations are purely super- ficial and are wholly due to artificial causes, that they are mainly the result of a mischievous Press campaign carried on by irresponsible journalists PREFACE. n and of a mistaken view of commercial interests. I submit that such statements are absolutely con- trary to the real facts. Alas 1 the misunderstandings between Eng- land and Germany are not superficial but deep seated. They do not merely involve questions of commercial interests, but they are rooted in a conflict of principles and ideals. If a war between the two countries did break out, it would not be merely an economic war, like the colonial wars between France and England in the eighteenth century ; rather would it partake of the nature of a political and religious crusade, like the French wars of the Revolution and the Empire. The present conflict between England and Germany is the old conflict between Liberalism and despotism^ between industrialism and militarism^ between progress and reaction^ between the masses and the classes. The conflict between England and Germany is a conflict, on the one hand, be- tween a nation which believes in political liberty and national autonomy, where the Press is free and where the rulers are responsible to public opinion, and, on the other hand, a nation where public opinion is still muzzled or powerless and where the masses are still under the heel of an absolute government, a reactionary party, a military Junkertum, and a despotic bureaucracy. The root of the evil lies in the fact that in Germany the war spirit and the war caste still 12 PREFACE. prevail, and that a military Power like Prussia is the predominant partner in the German Con- federation. The mischievous masterpiece of Carlyle on Frederick the Great, and his more mischievous letter to the Times, have misled English opinion as to the true character and traditions and aims of the Prussian monarchy. Prussia has been pre-eminently for two hundred years the military and reactionary State of Central Europe, much more so even than Russia. Prussia owes whatever she is, and whatever territory she has, to a systematic policy of cunning and deceit, of violence and conquest. No doubt she has achieved an admirable work of organization at home, and has fulfilled what was perhaps a necessary historic mission, but in her international relations she has been mainly a predatory Power. She has stolen her Eastern provinces from Poland. She is largely respon- sible for the murder of a great civilized nation. She has wrested Silesia from Austria. She has taken Hanover from its legitimate rulers. She has taken Schleswig-Holstein from Denmark, Alsace-Lorraine from France. And to-day the military caste in Prussia trust and hope that a final conflict with England will consummate what previous wars have so successfully accom- plished in the past. They are all the more anxious to enter the lists and to run the hazards of war because it becomes more and more PREFACE. 13 difficult to govern a divided Reichstag and a dissatisfied people without uniting them against a foreign enemy, and because they realize that unless they restore their prestige and consolidate their power by a signal victory the days of their predominance are numbered. Liberal publicists in this country ought to be the very last to fail to see the real points at issue and to ignore the fundamental fact that in Ger- many political aggressiveness abroad is explained by political reaction at home. It is perfectly true that England has no quarrel with the German people, that there has existed a hereditary alliance between the two nations, that they have fought side by side on many a battlefield, and that for generations the English people have paid ungrudgingly their tribute of admiration to the glorious achievements of the German people in philosophy and science, in literature and in music. But then the German people do not control the political situation. The German popular Press and the official Press Bureau of Mr. Hammann often do not even give them a chance to have the political problems brought before them. It is equally true that the assumption that war would benefit Germany is, to use the expression of Mr. Norman Angell in his epoch-making treatise, a "great illusion," and that the victor would certainly suffer as much as, or more than, the vanquished. But, 14 PREFACE. then, the ruling classes and the middle classes are suffering under that illusion, and even the masses themselves — with the doubtful exception of the Socialists — are actuated, not by their true interests, but by their passions artificially inflamed. Instead of evading those fundamental facts just stated, let the English Liberals pro- claim them from the housetops, so that the German and the British merchant, and the German and the British artisan may hear them. Let Liberal publicists strain every effort to enlighten German public opinion as well as English opinion. Let them proclaim that the remedy of the present situation lies not in the satisfaction of imaginary grievances, in the concession of "territorial compensation" at the expense of third parties, but in the establishment of popular government in the German Empire, and in the political education of the German people. in. It may be objected by English readers that, not being a born Englishman, I am scarcely qualified to interfere in such an anxious and grave debate. On the contrary, I submit that it is precisely because I was born a Belgian that I PREFACE. i$ have perhaps a better chance to be listened to by the German public. The German public in its present mood will not listen to English writers, even as the British public distrusts German writers. Only last year Professor DelbrUck refused to write for the Contemporary Review simply because Dr. Dillon was a regular contrib- utor to that periodical, and because, according to the German professor, Dr. Dillon was poisoning the wells of public opinion in England. Nor can I admit that, because I was born in Belgium, I ought to consider myself as a dis- interested outsider with regard to the Anglo- German problem. It is true that in theory the neutrality of Belgium is guaranteed by inter- national treaties ; but when 1 observe the signs of the times, the ambitions of the German rulers, and when I consider such indications as the recent extension of strategic railways on the Belgian-German frontiers, I do not look forward with any feeling of security to future con- tingencies in the event of a European war. I am not at all convinced that the scare of a German invasion of England is justified. Indeed, 1 am inclined to believe the Germans when they assert that in case of war Germany would not be likely to invade Britain. She would be far more likely to invade Belgium, because Belgium has always been the pawn in the great game of European politics, and has i6 PREFACE. often been, and may again become, the battle- field and cockpit of Europe. If, then, I cannot pretend that I am com- pletely impartial in this controversy, I may at least say that I am writing as a true friend and admirer of the German people. Indeed, it is be- cause I have learnt to admire the German people that I have also learnt to detest the Prussian spirit, which is the very negation of whatever is noblest and purest in the German genius. A Fleming by birth and a Dutchman by origin, I have perhaps as good a right to call myself a pure Teuton as most Nationalist Prussians who have an abundant admixture of Slav blood in their veins. I spoke a German dialect in the nursery. In my youth 1 nearly ruined my eyesight by reading Gothic script and German classics in those hideous editions, cheap and nasty, which have done so much to improve popular culture across the Rhine. I have revelled in German poetry, I have drunk at the fountain of German philosophy and theology. I may therefore claim to speak with some understanding and with genuine sympathy. A writer in the German Kolnische Zeitungy commenting on a previous essay of mine on a German topic, regrets that I should not have studied the subject in a more detached and objective spirit. I can only refer that German journalist to the judgment and ap- (1,606) PREFACE. 17 preciatlon of my work which the greatest political writer of modern Germany, Professor Hans Delbrtlck, has expressed in a biographical notice of myself which appeared in the Preussische Jahrbiicher. Nobody knows better than myself how little I deserve the too generous praise which Professor DelbrUck has given to my political writings, but at least I can say this, that for twenty years I have studied the problems of international politics from personal observation, and in a spirit of disinterested research : " Sine amore et odio quorum causas procul habeo." And although I cannot lay claim to the very doubtful virtue of absolute intellectual im- partiality and neutrality, I can at least say this, that I have done my utmost not to consider the problem from any English Nationalist point of view. I may assert in all honesty that I have not written this book in any narrow or insular spirit. I have tried to be what all educated Germans professed to be in the Golden Age of German philosophy or Ger- man literature. I have tried to be what the greatest German of all times — I mean, of course, Goethe, and not Count Zeppelin — has always claimed to be — namely, a Cosmopolitan, a good European ; and it is as a good European that I venture to ask for a fair hearing in both countries. These personal explanations were necessary, (1,696) 2 1 8 PREFACE. partly because I do not wish to compromise anybody but myself, and because I do not de- sire to be told that I am only expressing Eng- lish prejudices ; partly because in such a deli- cate controversy the personal equation means a great deal. Admirers of Prussian despotism will no doubt make a determined effort to dispute my qualifications or my right to speak. I am not afraid of my political opponents, and I shall answer them in the words of Themistocles : " You may strike, if you will only listen." 1 shall not mind being attacked and hit hard, provided my arguments be listened to. The truth generally prevails, if there is no con- spiracy of silence against it. INTRODUCTION. Europe is drifting slowly but steadily towards an awful catastrophe which, if it does happen, will throw back civilization for the coming genera- tion, as the war of 1870 threw back civilization for the generation which followed and which in- herited its dire legacy of evil. For the last ten years two great Western Powers and two kindred races have become increasingly estranged, and have been engaging in military preparations which are taxing to the utmost the resources of the people, and are paralyzing social and political reform in both countries. A combination of many causes, moral and political, has bred suspicion and dis- trust, and the fallacious assumption of conflicting interests has turned suspicion into hatred. Only a year ago England and Germany stood on the brink of war. If after the coup of Agadir, Germany had persisted in her policy, the con- flagration would have ensued, the storm would have burst out. The war cloud has temporarily lifted, but it has not passed away. The danger 20 INTRODUCTION. is as acute as it was, because the causes which produced the recent outburst are still with us, and the malignant passions are gathering strength with each passing day. This formidable evil is threatening England, but it does not originate in England, and Eng- land cannot be held responsible for it. The period of aggressive Imperialism has passed away. Mr. Joseph Chamberlain and Mr. Rudyard Kip- ling, in so far as they once represented the old bellicose Imperialism, to-day are exploded forces. The English people were never more peacefully inclined, and ^Liberals and Tories are united in their desire for a pacific solution of the present difficulties. In this respect an extraordinary change has come over England in the last ten years. In the wonderful age in which we are liv- ing, where the law of acceleration reveals itself in politics and economics as well as in science, more decisive events have taken place during the last decade than during the entire previous half cen- tury, and the English people have matured and advanced in political wisdom to an extent which few citizens realize. A cynic might object that if England to-day is less aggressive, it is be- cause she is satiated and ** saturated," because all the desirable places on the map of the world have already been painted red, and because the conquering Briton has taken up so much of the white man's burden that he is in need of a rest. INTRODUCTION. 21 And he might further object that England to- day is so entirely absorbed in home affairs, and confronted with so many and such anxious internal problems, that she has neither time nor energy to spare for further Imperial expansion. The objection might seem plausible enough if history did not teach us that internal difficulties, so far from being an obstacle to external aggres- sion, are often one of its main motives. Only too frequently have statesmen found a spirited foreign policy the line of least resistance in the solution of their domestic difficulties. 1 therefore believe that the enthusiasm for social reform which to-day animates British statesmen, to whatever party they belong, is the best proof of a sincere desire on the part of the British nation to preserve the peace of the world. But there are other causes which have contrib- uted even more efficiently to produce the pacific temper of the English people. Both the Trans- vaal War and the Russo-Japanese War, with the frightful sacrifices they entailed, have had a sober- ing effect on the national mind, and have laid bare the dangers of aggressive Imperialism. On the other hand, the remarkable results achieved by the diplomacy of King Edward the Seventh have brought home the conviction that in the promotion of national interests more may be achieved by tact and sympathy than by brute 22 INTRODUCTION. force. But, above all, the concession of complete autonomy to the Dutch-speaking South African peoples, the Constitution of the South African Commonwealth, the loyalty of the Dominion of Canada, and its rejection of the reciprocity treaty with the United States have had an inspiring effect on the mother country, and have strength- ened her belief in the wisdom of a liberal and generous policy. England to-day has re- turned to her ancient traditions. The British people have outgrown the bonds of a narrow nationalism. In the political philosophy of the day, national patriotism has ceased to be an absolute category, an end in itself. Nationalism has become a relative category and a means to a higher end. The British Empire has become a world-wide federation of free, self-governing communities, including many different religions, but bound together by the same political ideal. The British Empire may be legitimately re- garded as the most decisive experiment in liberal statesmanship in the world's history, the most effective power for good in world politics, the most convincing proof that an unswerving respect for the political rights of the people is the strong- est bond of unity and loyalty, that order is com- patible with liberty, and that the conflicting claims of nationality can be and must be reconciled with the claims of humanity. In past ages the idea of empire has always been associated with the idea INTRODUCTION. 23 of despotism. It is the unique glory of the British Empire that it is indis^olubly associated with and synonymous with political liberty. As England has been the alma mater of repre- sentative government, so will the British Em- pire be the perfect type and exemplar of all free commonwealths, of all future federa- tions of civilized communities, the nearest approach to that federation of humanity which has been the philosopher's stone of human statesmanship. For the reasons which I have just stated, the pacific intentions of the English people to- day cannot be disputed, and for those self-same reasons we cannot accept the theory that Eng- land is quite as responsible as Germany for the present situation. We cannot admit that Ger- many is justified in saying, " We are preparing for war because we dread an attack from England," just as much as the English people think themselves justified in saying, "We are preparing for war because we dread an attack from Germany." If our interpretation of the significance of the British Empire is not a hollow phrase, the English people have actually broken through that vicious circle, and the con- clusion must force itself upon any impartial ob- server that in the present crisis the danger does not come from England, but that it undoubtedly does originate in Germany. 24 INTRODUCTION. It is Germany and not England which is the storm-centre, the volcanic zone, in international politics. From there have come, ever since i860, the tension and friction, the suspicion and distrust. It is there that the pagan gods of the Nibelungen are forging their deadly weapons. I admit that it is impossible from the very out- set of our inquiry to establish a conviction which necessarily can only be reached at the conclusion of our argument, but 1 hope and trust that in the present volume we shall provide sufficient cumulative evidence to convince even the most sceptical. In this opening chapter we shall only dispose of a few preliminary objections, and answer a few previous questions proposed by those candid critics who at the beginning of our investigation would be inclined to dispute the reality of the danger against which we are seek- ing to protect ourselves, or by those critics who would deny the very existence of the problem of which we are seeking a solution. Many English and German publicists try to reassure us by telling us that the present Anglo- German peril is only a passing phenomenon, and that with sufficient goodwill and patience we shall soon see the end of it. " Deus dahit his quoque finemy They tell us that the present situ- ation is mainly created by mutual misunder- standings, and that those misunderstandings are only too easily explained, in the first place, by the INTRODUCTION. 25 almost universal ignorance of the two nations concerning each other's difficulties and character- istics, and, in the second place, by the peculiar psychology of the crowd, and by the mischievous workings of a Yellow Press bent on increasing its circulation by spreading sensational reports and inflaming popular passion. 1 am quite prepared to make full allowance for national ignorance and national prejudice. To restrict my criticism to the English public, I fully admit that the ignorance of the English people concerning their German cousins is prodigious. When we find that the study of the German language — that is to say, of a language which is the key to a glorious literature as well as the chief means of establishing business rela- tions with one of the great commercial Powers of the world — is almost " taboo " in every English public school and university, owing to the incon- ceivable pedantry and narrow-mindedness of edu- cational authorities ;* when we find that in the whole of the Scottish universities there does not * Lord Haldane is a great expert in German literature and German philosophy. He is Chancellor of one British uni- versity, and has been Lord Rector of another, and he is keenly inter- ested in educational reform. But I am not aware that either he or any other statesman has ever attempted to do anything to counteract the imbecile policy of the educational authorities and to encourage the study of German. In contrasting the intellectual relations of England and Germany we are reminded of the relative position ot the French people and of the German people before the outbreak of the war of 1870. The Germans knew everything about the French, the French knew little or nothing of the Germans. 26 INTRODUCTION. exist one chair of German language and literature, and that in the university of Cambridge it has been left to the munificence of a Teutonic mer- chant to make adequate provision for the teach- ing of German ; when we find that a knowledge of Greek, only attainable by a small minority, and a smattering of Greek forced upon the vast majority of English schoolboys are considered more important than a practical mastery of the German language, which ought to be placed within the reach of every pupil ; when we find that ninety-five per cent, of the members of the House of Commons, whose first duty it should be to know at first hand the conditions which prevail in Germany, to keep in touch with the German Press, and with German public opinion, are incapable of reading a German newspaper ; when we find that the most popular English paper of the day recently sent out a corre- spondent to follow the German elections, who naYvely admitted that he did not understand a word of German ; when we see such an extraordi- nary state of things I am only too ready to admit that nothing that can be said about the igno- rance of the British public can possibly be too strong, and I feel it my duty to proclaim that the educational authorities who allow such a scandal to continue are guilty of an almost criminal neglect of duty, and that they must be held primarily responsible for a great deal of the INTRODUCTION. 27 intellectual misunderstanding that exists between the two nations.* But however deplorable that ignorance may be, however much it may have contributed in the past to mutual differences, and however dangerous it might prove in case of a war, I do not think that it can account for the present crisis ; and I am driven to that conclusion by the simple reflection that the feeling of hostility is so much less acute and the attitude of de- preciation is so much less marked in England, where the ignorance of German is almost uni- versal, than in Germany, where the educated classes do possess a knowledge of the English language. Nor can it be said that the " psychology of the crowd " in both countries must be held mainly responsible for the existing situation. With re- gard to the German crowd I am ready to admit that ample allowance must be made for the animal spirits of a young and growing nation, especially when its rulers find it to their advantage to turn the popular mind away from the con- sideration of their own political shortcomings, in order to unite them against an imaginary * In the face of that ignorance, which is accepted by every legislator, how contemptible must appear the gushing cant about the admirable results of interparliementary visits and conferences ! It must be no doubt infinitely less troublesome to attend parlia- mentary banquets and to indulge in fraternal potations and to intone the Gaudeamus igitur than to fight for a reform of our effete educational system. 28 INTRODUCTION enemy. And I know full well that the whole history of the nineteenth century presents a lamentable record of similar periodical outbursts of national animosity. Thus France was the " hereditary enemy " of England before she be- came her ally. Thus Germany and Austria were " hereditary enemies," and fought a bitter war before they became loyal friends. Thus England was the " inveterate enemy " of Russia ; thus it was thought that the occupation of Merv, a sterile oasis on the Persian frontier, must be a casus helli^ and thus England was subject to periodical fits o^ ^^ Mervousness" and ^^ nervousness^* before she became united to the Slav Empire in an Entente Cordiale. But the present misunder- standing between England and Germany is a different phenomenon. It cannot be traced to sudden gusts of popular passion. It cannot be explained by conflicting interests. It cannot be explained by racial differences, for they are kindred races. It cannot be explained by reli- gious differences, for both England and Germany are Protestant rather than Catholic countries. It cannot be explained by any hereditary hos- tility, for in the past England and Germany have never fought against each other on a battle- field. On the contrary, they have often fought as allies against a common foe. The causes of the present animosity, therefore, lie deeper, and no shallow phrases about the " passing moods of INTRODUCTION. 29 the people," or the " psychology of the crowd," can be accepted as a solution of the difficulty. Nor do I think that the popular Press can be held responsible to any large extent for the Anglo-German peril. I admit that the Yellow Press has often made it a matter of business, and sometimes a remunerative business, to stir up ill-feeling amongst nations. But in the present case the newspapers have not created the ill- feeling ; they only gave expression to a feeling which already existed. In this connection it must be noted that in Germany anti-British hostility is by no means restricted to the Yellow Press. Any one acquainted with the German Press will know that a Conservative paper like the Kreuzzeitung or a National Liberal journal like the Preussische JahrhUcher are almost as aggressive in tone as a frankly Nationalist paper like the Zukunft. German and English publicists, whilst admit- ting the existence of a feeling of hostility, point out the many unmistakable signs of goodwill heralding a better understanding in the future. They point to the frequent exchange of inter- national courtesies, to the periodical visits of Members of Parliament and of representative men of the Churches ; they point to the visit of Viscount Haldane ; and last, but not least, they point to the many pacific assurances of the Ger- man Kaiser. With regard to the utterances of the 30 INTRODUCTION. Kaiser, I can only say that if the Kaiser has made many pacific speeches, his aggressive speeches have been even more numerous. I have no doubt that the Kaiser is perfectly sincere, and I believe him to be animated with the most cordial feelings for this country. If I am asked to explain the contradiction, I can only see one explanation, and it is not one which I am very willing to admit. And the explanation is this : when he is expressing words of peace and good- will he is speaking in his own private capacity and as the grandson of an English queen. On the contrary, whenever he utters words of ill- will and menace, whenever he waves the flag, when he shows the mailed fist, he is acting as the representative and speaking as the spokesman of a considerable fraction amongst his subjects. That there has existed in Germany a very widespread feeling of hostility against the English people we have uncontrovertible proof. And the evidence we have on no less an au- thority than the Kaiser himself. In the famous interview published by the Daily Telegraph, William the Second emphatically testified to the existence and to the persistence of the feeling which he had systematically attempted to counter- act. The admission raised legitimate indignation in Germany. It was ill-advised. It was calcu- lated to intensify the very animosity which it deprecated. But the fact itself, the existence of INTRODUCTION. 31 the animosity, could not be disputed. After all, the Kaiser ought to know the feelings, if not of the majority of his subjects, at least of those ruling classes with whom he comes in contact. And therefore no reassuring interviews or utterances, even of an Anglophile Kaiser, can blind us to the significance of recent events. The signs of the times are too clear to leave us in any doubt with regard to the state of the popular mind in Germany. In England and Germany the public men of all parties and of no party, publicists of every colour and of no colour, interpret those signs in exactly the same way. When we hear in England leading Socialists like Mr. Blatchford and Mr. Hyndman, eminent Positivists like Mr. Frederic Harrison, apostles of peace like Mr. Norman Angell, aU warning us that we stand on the brink of an abyss ; when we hear in Germany the leader of the National Liberal Party, Mr. Basserman, the leader of the Conservative Party, Mr. von Heydebrand, the leader of the Progressive Party, the Rev. Friedrich Naumann, men divided on many political problems but united in their suspicion of England, when we hear those men deliver inflammatory speeches in the Reichstag ; when the guarded and dignified speech of an English Cabinet Minister, who has always been known for his pro-German sympathies, has been distorted in Germany into 32 INTRODUCTION. a challenge of war, and has called forth such extraordinary speeches as those of Mr. von Heydebrand ; when we see the most eminent German publicist, Professor Hans DelbrQck of the University of Berlin, a Liberal and a friend of England, actually refusing to write a peaceful declaration for the Contemporary Review, because, in his opinion, such a declaration could not serve any useful purpose in the present ex- cited state of public opinion ; when we see the most influenti^ journalist of the German Empire, Maximilian Harden, who is not only a writer of brilliant talent and immense learning, but who has the keen Semitic instinct for what appeals to the public, proclaiming again and again that things cannot go on any longer as they are, and month after month calling for the arbitrament of war, and repeating in the Zukunft his fateful burden, " Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delen- dam ; " when we see the German Crown Prince, who is no longer an impulsive and immature youth, but a responsible man of thirty, widely travelled, and with considerable political ex- perience, frantically applauding violent anti- British outbursts in the Reichstag, and being made into a popular hero for doing so ; when, finally, we see that the German Emperor him- self is being proclaimed a very apostle of peace merely because he courageously refuses to inflame the warlike passions ; when we see the Kaiser, INTRODUCTION. 33 nay even the war lord of Europe, being publicly derided and reviled for his pacific intentions, and when that glorious appellation, " William the Peaceful,'^ has become a nickname and is turned into an insult ; when we can observe all those concurrent symptoms, surely we have a right to conclude that the international situation has indeed become one of imminent peril. Uninfluenced by those ominous signs of the times, English and German optimists still refuse to surrender, still persist in their optimism. They argue that the situation is no doubt serious, but that those outbursts of popular feeling in Ger- many, violent as they are, have largely been caused by English suspicion and distrust, and that there has been nothing in the German policy to justify that English suspicion and distrust. After all, deeds are more important than words, and by her deeds Germany has proved for forty-two years that she is persistently pacific. Since 1870 Russia has made war against Tur- key and against Japan. England has made war against the Transvaal. Italy has waged war against Turkey. France after Fashoda would have declared war against England, and after Tangier would have declared war against Ger- many, if France had been prepared. Of all the great Powers, Germany alone for nearly half a century has been determined to keep the peace of the world. (1,695) 3 34 INTRODUCTION. The reply to this objection is very simple. I am not examining here whether a state of affairs which has transformed Europe into an armed camp of six million soldiers, and which absorbs for military expenditure two-thirds of the rev- enue of European states, can be appropriately called a state of peace. It is certainly not a pax romana. It is most certainly not a pax britannica. It may be a pax teutonicd or rather a pax borussica, but such as it is, ruinous and demoralizing, it is also lamentably precarious and perilously unstable. And if Germany has kept this pax borussica for forty-two years, it has not been the fault of the German Govern- ment. Rather has it been kept because she has been prevented from declaring war by outside interference ; or because she has been able to carry out her policy and to achieve her ambi- tions without going the length of declaring war, or because a war would have been not only a heinous crime but a political blunder. After 1870 Bismarck twice prepared to deal a deadly blow to France, because France was rapidly recovering from her wounds and re- organizing her army. It was only the Russian intervention which prevented the Iron Chan- cellor from carrying out his plans. I am aware that some of the facts have been disputed. Such international differences generally are twisted and distorted, but the main facts of the INTRODUCTION. 3$ Franco-German incidents of 1 875 remain beyond cavil and dispute.* And it is highly significant that quite recently a great German scholar, Professor Karl Lamprecht of Leipzig Univer- sity,t in the conclusion of the nineteenth volume of his monumental history, should still cynically deplore and regret that in 1875 Germany should have missed a great opportunity and should not have fulfilled her destiny. Again, only four years ago, there was a danger of an outbreak of war when Austria, supported by Germany, annexed Bosnia-Herzogovina in flagrant violation of the Treaty of Berlin. War would no doubt have been declared if Russia had been prepared for it, if she had had time to recover from Moukden and Tsusima. But the real reason why Germany for forty years has kept the peace is because a war would have been both fatal and futile, injurious and superfluous. It would have been injurious, for it would have arrested the growing trade and the expanding industries of the empire. And, above all, it would have been superfluous, for in time of peace Germany reaped all the ad- vantages which a successful war would have * See the instructive revelations in the Memoirs of Sir Robert Morier, who was English Ambassador in Berlin. t It is noticeable that one of the leaders of the Pan-Germanists, Ernst Hasse, was also a professor of Leipzig University. In Pro- fessor Lamprecht he has made a brilliant convert who is a host by himself. 36 INTRODUCTION. given her. For twenty-five years the German Empire wielded an unchallenged supremacy on the continent of Europe. For twenty years she directed the course of international events. But since the opening of the twentieth cen- tury Germany has ceased to be paramount, she has ceased to control European policy at her own sweet will, and weaker States have ceased to be given over to her tender mercies. To the Triple Alliance has been opposed the Triple Entente. The balance of power has been re-established. The three "hereditary enemies" — England, France, and Russia — have joined hands, and have delivered Europe from the incubus of German suzerainty. German diplomacy has strained every effort to break the Triple Entente, in turn wooing and threatening France and Russia, keeping open the Moroccan sore as the Neapolitan lazzarone keeps open the wound which ensures his living, and finally challenging the naval supremacy of England, and preparing to become as powerful at sea as she is on the Continent. And here we come to one of the crucial points of the Anglo-German controversy — the naval policy of the German Empire. I advisedly said ONE of the crucial points, for it is by no means the only one, nor even, in my opinion, the most important one. As I shall presently endeavour to prove, if Qermany suddenly INTRODUCTION. 37 decided to reduce her naval armaments and to increase her army in proportion^ England would have even more serious reasons for anxiety than she has at present. 