Indyref2: Why has the campaign for another vote gone quiet? - BBC News
Boris Johnson visits Scotland with no sign an independence referendum will be soon, writes Nick Eardley.
Independence campaigners are hoping for a second referendum after their defeat in 2014

As Prime Minister Boris Johnson begins a visit to Scotland, what are the chances of the SNP securing another independence referendum?

May's Scottish election was a big moment for the UK.

Parties demanding another referendum on independence had won a majority.

The SNP believed they had a cast-iron mandate for another vote. But they want the UK government to agree - and there's no sign of that happening.

It sets up a constitutional clash which we will be talking about for some time.

But don't expect the crescendo any time soon.

Boris Johnson's trip to Scotland is his first in seven months.

The prime minister's perceived unpopularity north of the border meant many Scottish Tories thought it best to keep him out of May's election campaign.

But UK ministers believe they need to talk more about what they see as the benefits of the union.

Boris Johnson met Nicola Sturgeon during a 2019 visit to Scotland - but won't be meeting her this time

Last week, we had Chancellor Rishi Sunak talking about the success of furlough.

The PM has talked on a number of occasions about why he thinks the union made the coronavirus vaccine rollout easier and faster.

You can expect to hear more of the same in the next couple of days.

When it comes to independence, there is almost no prospect of Mr Johnson's government budging - and agreeing to another referendum.

Senior figures in Downing Street have made it clear the PM is not going to change his mind.

But can that position hold forever?

Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove seemed to hint that it couldn't in an interview last week.

He told the Sunday Mail that if another referendum was the "settled will" of the Scottish people, another vote would be held.

But how do you define settled will?

The question is probably part of the answer. It allows the UK government to keep saying no without a tangible point at which they'll say yes.

The SNP are in no rush either.

The party is trying to figure out the answers to some pretty big questions on its post-Brexit plan for an independent Scotland.

How would you prevent a hard border with England?

How quickly would you move to a new Scottish currency?

How quickly would Scotland be able to join the EU?

Behind the scenes, there is work going on to look at these central questions. But the answers aren't simple.

Then there's the question of priorities.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has made Covid hers to tackle in the first three months of the new Holyrood term - and her party has promised there won't be another referendum until the crisis has passed. Again, without a definition of when we might judge what passed means.

So while the rhetoric on the constitution continues, decisive moments are a while away. Senior figures in the SNP are reluctant to offer any sort of date for when another referendum might be held.

There could, however, be some small steps in the next few weeks.

In September, the SNP will hold a conference where independence will be one of the main three themes.

There, you can expect Ms Sturgeon to come under pressure to move the independence campaign on.

A leaked provisional agenda for the event includes a motion which would demand Ms Sturgeon's government holds a referendum "as soon as it is safe".

Like last year's event, September's SNP conference is due to be held online

The final agenda for the conference hasn't been finalised, but there are also calls for the party to set up a "Borders commission" to do detailed work on the border question.

A number of SNP branches want the party to commit to removing nuclear weapons from Scotland within three years of independence - a significant commitment.

There is going to be a lot more debate about the independence timetable next month.

It's also possible the SNP will team up with the Scottish Greens in a formal arrangement at Holyrood.

This wouldn't be a coalition - but something short of that, focussed on key issues where they agree.

A commitment to another referendum would be one of them. Inevitable for the two pro-independence parties - but a symbolic show of strength.

But on the key question of whether another independence referendum is going to happen, a concrete answer is a while off.