The numbers that matter - BBC News
The statistics that hold the key to the next few months in British politics, both for Brexit and Theresa May's leadership.
There are 66 pages in the European Withdrawal Bill, the passage of which will be arguably this fragile government's hardest job, in a fractious political universe with a weakened prime minister. The bill comes back to the Commons this Thursday, with the first votes next week.

Opposition MPs could field a forest of hostile amendments, proposed changes to the complicated legislation, some frankly to make political points, some to try to make reasonable changes to the legislation.

One minister, conceding the government will have to budge in some areas, says some of their opponents may as well "be tabling amendments for sunshine" and the task for government will be to work out "what is grandstanding" and where their critics have a valid point.

The task would be difficult in any political climate, but harder, when the prime minister can't be confident of cheery enthusiasm from her backbenches.

There are 50 Tory MPs who have given their names to those gathering a list, who I'm told are "on a spectrum", ranging from a small number who would demand an immediate departure, to those who want the PM to make clear she won't go into the next election or to set out a departure timetable.

I'm told there are cabinet ministers, including those who fancy their chances as taking over one day, who have taken part in discussions around these plans.

Theresa May's allies, in contrast, believe that having made it through the summer, each day she stays in office makes her stronger, and potentially, if all goes according to plan, could see her achieve her claim of being in it for the long term, remarks made to reporters in Japan last week that stirred the leadership rumblings once more.

One of the rows she'll have to contend with in the coming weeks is a Brexit bill that could end up edging towards £50bn, an amount it was reported Theresa May had already agreed, an amount that would make some Brexiteers sick to their stomachs. That story was flatly denied by the brexit secretary over the weekend, but sources close to the talks have previously acknowledged the territory of the costs could be well north of £30bn, even if there is no final agreement yet.

Politically, ministers believe it would be more palatable, and more realistic for the bill to be presented as a series of prices for particular costs that are individually politically acceptable, for example £1bn to stay a member of a particular scientific research organisation, or the Erasmus programme for students.

A row over money is likely, but it's not in the interest of the UK to settle it any time soon, as one cabinet minister says "money is our leverage".

It's 47 days since the House of Commons finished its business for the summer, and MPs scattered to their constituency offices, summer fetes, back gardens or sun loungers. It has, one government source says, "been a proper recess", where most politics has been on pause.

After a 12-month period of tumult, that's been reflected by the poll ratings of the two main parties, the average Conservative and Labour poll ratings have seen Labour on average on 42%, and the Tories on 41%.

Labour consistently only just ahead, a margin that neither side would trust, that contributes to an edginess in the air as politics gets back down to work.

While many MPs and ministers have been glad of a break before getting stuck into the 28 clauses and schedules of the Withdrawal Bill that will return this week, some parts of government have been busy.

The Department for Exiting the EU and the EU Commission have been carrying on their Brexit talks throughout the normally quiet summer pause, and after months of criticism that they have been slack, the government has produced a flurry of seven position and future partnership papers, on their hopes and aspirations for the Brexit negotiations, with more expected in the coming days.

They have been pored over, and greeted with inevitable disappointment in Brussels, but the government has been keen to show, at last, their critics would say, a sense of momentum in the talks. This hasn't suddenly revealed chapter and verse on the world outside the EU, but they do represent a significant administrative step along this bumpy road.

On that road, the government needs to keep happy the 10 DUP MPs who agreed to lend them their backing in a loose form of government deal to give them support on Brexit and their Budgets.

Theresa May needs them on side, because having carelessly mislaid her majority at the election, it only takes six rebels, yes, you read that right, six Tory MPs, willing to vote against the government on any one issue to humble them in defeat.

A number that leads one of her critics to say simply, ''she is only there now because she serves at the pleasure of the '22'" - the 1922, that's the group that represents Tory MPs.

Another one of her Tory detractors says that means two big mistakes, and she is out, "a first one would destabilise her, a second would kill her off". But there are plenty of MPs on the Tory benches who just want to get their heads down at the start of this new term.

One cabinet minister says "she's safe for now, the public expects us to behave".

Some junior ministers who fancy their own chances for later, it's said, want to get through the autumn, through the initial stages of the Brexit legislation, to at least the middle of next year before rattling any cages that might lead to a leadership fight.

Finally, helping the government settle down, and Theresa May stay in place, is the reality that there is zero desire at the moment on the Tory benches for another general election.

They are human beings after all, like the rest of us, who want to keep their jobs, who just don't want to take the risk. The fear of another election and a possible Labour victory is helping to keep the lid on Tory infighting.

But the weeks ahead are likely to be fractious and testing. However capable Theresa May's rebooted Number 10 team is, however profound her new-found determination, hindering a smooth re-entry for the prime minister to this new term is the fact this government has zero experience of how to go about its biggest task, taking us out of the European Union.

For good or ill, this is a complicated task full of risk and uncertainty as well as opportunity, and it's never been done before. The prime minister has a lot to do to prove even to her own party that she strong enough to get it done.