I'm trying to create a predictive curve using 12 different datasets of empirical data. Essentially I want to write a function that passes 2 variables (Number of Applications, Days) and generates a predictive curve based on the 12 datasets that i have. The datasets all have 60 days and have Number of Applications from 500 to 100,000.
I'm not really sure of what the best approach would be, I was thinking maybe taking the average percentage of total applications at each day (ex: at day 1 on average there are 3% of total applications issued, day 10 on average there are 10%, etc)would be a good place to start but i'm not sure if that's the best approach.
I have python, SQL, and excel at my disposal but I'm not necessarily looking for a specific solution as much as just a general suggestion on approach. Any help would be much appreciated!
It sounds like you want to break it all out into (60*12) rows with 3 columns: one recording the application number, another recording the time, and another recording the location. Then a model could dummy out each location as a predictor, and you could generate 12 simulated predictions, with uncertainty. Then, to get your one overall prediction, average those predictions instead - bootstrap and then pool the predictions if you're fancy. Model time however you want - autoregression, Kalman filter, nearest-neighbor (probably not enough data for that one though). Just don't dummy out each time point individually or you'll have a perfect-fitting model.
But be aware of the possible universe of interactions between the locations that you could model here. Dummying them all out assumes no interactions between them, or at least one you care about, or that relate to anything you care about. It just accounts for fixed effects, i.e. you're assuming that the time dynamic within each location is the same, it's just that some locations tend overall and on average to have higher application numbers than others. You could derive tons of predictors pertaining to any given location based on the application number(s) in other location(s) - current number, past number, etc. All depends on what you consider to be possible and informative to account for.
Python/SQL/Excel I have 12 datasets and I want to combine them to one representative set