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Should Schools in Your County Be Open?
ByYaryna SerkezandStuart A. ThompsonAug. 14, 2020
Many parents have one question on their minds right now: Can my child’s school open safely amid the pandemic? Times Opinion looked at which counties might be able to open schools by examining where the rate of new coronavirus cases may be low enough, and testing rates high enough, to allow it.

The analysis found that most schools across the country should remain partially or fully closed, including in almost the entire South, where cases are still surging and testing is insufficient. But in other states, like those in the coastal Northeast, schools can be open —with conditions, like avoiding high risk activities, wearing masks and physical distancing.
Our analysis considers two main things: the rate of new infections in a county and the county’s testing capabilities. We used guidelines from the Harvard Global Health Institute, which proposed a variety of ways to open schools as long as the county has fewer than 25 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people. We also used the World Health Organization’s proposal to open only if fewer than 5 percent of all those who are tested for the virus over a two-week period actually have it.
The second part matters because if a higher proportion of people are testing positive, it could mean that not enough tests are being conducted to adequately measure the spread.
Not every county that opens schools would do it the same way.Guidelinesproposed by Harvard allow some elementary schools to open first while high schools would remain online. Here are those guidelines applied to our rankings.
How risky is it to reopen the schools?
Any school that opens should also follownew protocolson physical distancing, class size and ventilation. Schools without the funding or staffing necessary to meet those standards may have to stay closed, experts warned, even if they meet the targets we used.
Areas with the lowest number of new cases per capita, such as parts of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine, shown here in green, can reopen schools for all grades if safety precautions are taken.
Yellow areas, such as most of New York and Michigan, could resume in-person learning for pre-K to 5th grade, and for middle schools, with high school students on a schedule that mixes online and in-person learning.
For orange areas, like parts of Nevada and Illinois, recommendations are similar with the exception of high schoolers staying completely remote.
Red zones, like Louisiana, Florida and Georgia, shouldn’t open their schools because the higher case rates means the virus is more likely to spread. But that could change in just a few weeks if testing improves and cases fall.
“We’re not saying close schools forever. We’re saying postpone. Give it a few weeks,” said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor in the department of health policy and management at Harvard.
Many school districts in those red zones have already reopened. A photo ofa crowded high schoolhallway in Paulding County, Ga., went viral after the school reopened in August. Just days later, half a dozen students and three teachers tested positive for the coronavirus, leading the school toreturn to online-only instructionfor at least a few days.
Our analysis showed Paulding County did not meet the criteria to open schools. Meanwhile, some school districts in the Northeast are still questioning whether they should open schools, though the data suggests they could.
“There’s a rush to reopen in the South and there’s a delay to reopen in places where the community transmission is low,” Dr. Tsai said.
Is it safe?
Governors face a difficult decision on schools. Manypublic health experts have arguedthat their policies on reopenings should account for not only new infections and testing but also the risks of hospitalizations and deaths.
The map of “safe” areas looks very different depending on the standards adopted.Leaked documentsrevealed the White House set a generous standard, allowing up to 10 percent of people in a region to test positive before more severe restrictions should be considered. Researchers at Harvard set this number at just 3 percent.
Where is there enough testing? Depends on who you ask.
Nevertheless, a phased county-by-county approach was key to reopening the economy in many states and could help students get into class faster in places with lower case levels.
California is already relying on a similar approach, allowing counties to reopen schools after being removed from the state’s “watch list” for two weeks. The watch list tracks new cases, hospitalizations and hospital capacity.
While Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York proposed a region-by-region approach, case levels are low enough statewide for all New York schools to open — for now.
“Everybody wants to reopen schools, but you only reopen if it’s safe to reopen, and that’s determined by the data,”saidMr. Cuomo in an announcement. “You don’t hold your finger up and feel the wind, you don’t have an inspiration, you don’t have a dream, you don’t have an emotion — look at the data.”
Who gets left behind?
The regional approach could also make the education gap wider if richer, whiter students are allowed back before others.
Based on data from August, when many regions were deciding whether to reopen, our analysis found that that is likely to be the case, as schools that could reopen were mostly in wealthier, whiter neighborhoods.
Whiter counties could reopen sooner
Covid-19 risk levels and share of white population, by county (circles sized by county population)
Schools should stay remote
10M
AVERAGE
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
50%
60
70
80
90
100
Share of white population
Note: Not all counties are shown.
10M
AVERAGE
Schools should stay remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
10%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Share of white population
In the coronavirus era, income can often determine who safely stays at home and who must risk their lives on the frontlines. It also influences who will succeed in a remote learning environment;  studies have found that lower-income students without good access to the internet and whose parents can’t afford private tutors canfall behind.
Richer counties could reopen sooner
Covid-19 risk levels and median income, by county (circles sized by county population)
10M
AVERAGE
Schools should stay remote
Elementary/middle schools open, high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
$20K
40
60
80
100
120
Median income
AVERAGE
10M
Schools should stay remote
Elementary/middle schools open, high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
$20K
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Median income
Our analysis also found that the counties where it was safer to open schools also had higher rates of health insurance coverage and lower prevalence of chronic diseases. Chronic diseases like high blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and lung and heart diseases are known to put Covid-19 patients atrisk of severe sickness. The majority of counties that should remain closed have a higher prevalence of those risk factors, according to theCovid Health Risk Index.
In certain states, the risk is alarmingly high. Among the West Virginian counties that should keep schools closed, most rank in the top 10 percent nationwide for health risks. Many Southeastern counties rank above the national median.
Health risks are higher in counties that should stay closed
Covid-19 risk levels and health risks, by county (circles sized by county population)
10M
Schools should stay remote
AVERAGE
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
Average
Higher risk
Lower risk
health risk
10M
Schools should stay remote
AVERAGE
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
Average
Higher risk
Lower risk
health risk
These disparities complicate the more data-driven approach advocated by Governor Cuomo and other governors. We can’t just look at cases of Covid-19; we also need to look holistically at the community’s health.
“If we just focus on our own individual needs, our entire society is going to suffer. We have to be in it together,” said Dr. Naomi Bardach, an associate professor of pediatrics and health policy at the University of California San Francisco. “If we decide pragmatically that schools who can afford to open now can — without paying attention to the fact that there are a bunch of communities that are going to suffer because they can’t open, and we’re just going to abandon them — that’s the wrong societal perspective.”
The solution, Dr. Bardach said, is to fund schools that cannot otherwise afford to follow guidelines, help communities reduce infection rates and improve testing capacity nationally.
But those goals are harder to achieve because many of those communities have other conditions that make them particularly fragile.
Consider health insurance: The median income in most counties with high case rates in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida and Texas is well below the national median. They also have uninsured rates significantly higher than the national average. The federal government requires Medicare, Medicaid and private insurers to cover testing and doctor visits for Covid-19. But this doesn’t extend to the cost of hospitalizations, and millions of uninsured Americans have already incurredimmense expensesmost of them won’t be able to cover.
Counties that could reopen are better insured
Covid-19 risk levels and share of adults without health insurance, by county (circles sized by county population)
Schools should
stay remote
AVERAGE
10M
Elementary/middle schools
open, high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
5%
10
15
20
25
30
Share of adults without health insurance
Note: Not all counties are shown.
AVERAGE
10M
Schools should stay remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools remote
Elementary/middle schools open,
high schools partially online
All schools can reopen
FEWER INSURED
5%
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Share of adults without health insurance
In places where communities are particularly vulnerable, getting the pandemic under control should be the priority before reopening schools. After all, the kids are only as safe as bus drivers who take them to school.
Yaryna Serkez (@iarynam) is a graphics editor for Opinion. Stuart A. Thompson (@stuartathompson) is a writer and the graphics director for Opinion.Contributions by Gus Wezerek and Lora Kelley.Methodology— Times Opinion assembled county-level test positivity rates from each state where they were available. Not all states report positivity rates the same way or for the same period. Where available, we used the most up-to-date two-week average. In some cases, only a one-week average was available. Virginia posts test positivity rate by health district. Those values were mapped onto corresponding counties. Some states did not report county-level test positivity data. In those cases, we applied the state-level average to the counties. States may update daily county-level data after it is published. Due to reporting and publishing delays, test positivity rates may not capture positive coronavirus cases for the same time period, and vice versa. In some cases, counties reported no positive test results while also reporting positive cases. In those instances, we used state-level testing averages instead of county data.UpdatesAug. 18: Health district data was added for Virginia using corresponding health district data. County-level data was added for Alabama, Delaware, Idaho, Massachusetts, South Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia.Aug. 15: County-level test positivity data was added for Pennsylvania.Aug. 14: County-level test positivity data was added for Kansas.
An earlier version of this article misstated the status of Pennsylvania counties. They were entirely red on the map (meaning they should remain closed), not mostly yellow.
An earlier version of this article displayed the incorrect test positivity status for York County, Pa. The test positivity rate was above 5 percent, not below.
An earlier version of this article displayed the incorrect test positivity status when hovering over the map for counties with a test positivity rate of 5 percent. Those counties are considered to be above the test positivity threshold, not below it.