Since the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping across the country last year, deaths have been nearly 20 percent above normal. See the breakdown by state.
Since the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping across the country last year, deaths have been nearly 20 percent above normal. See the breakdown by state.
Covid-19Guidance
574,000 More U.S. Deaths Than Normal Since Covid-19 Struck
ByJosh KatzDenise LuandMargot Sanger-KatzUpdatedMarch 24, 2021
This page is no longer being updated on a regular basis.
Weekly deaths above and below normal in the U.S. since 2015
Since March 2020, about 574,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the broad devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.
An analysis ofmortality datafrom the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, even higher than theofficial totals of deathsthat have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 21 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Feb. 20, 2021. Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed cases of coronavirus — beginning when the virus took hold in the United States last spring. That allows comparisons that do not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting, and includes deaths related to disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”
Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.
As Covid-19 cases have spread across the country, the geographic patterns of abnormal mortality statistics have followed. Excess deaths have peaked three times, so far, as have deaths from Covid-19.
There are now excess deaths in nearly every state, with surges in states like Arizona, California, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia fueling record death tolls in recent weeks.
Weekly deaths above and below normal since March 15, 2020
United States
March 15 – Feb. 20
Reported Covid-19 deaths
497,343
Total excess deaths
574,300
Total above normal
21%
Alabama
March 15 – Feb. 27
9,930
12,900
25%
Alaska
March 15 – Jan. 30
253
500
13%
Arizona
March 15 – March 6
16,323
19,600
32%
Arkansas
March 15 – March 6
5,297
6,800
21%
California
March 15 – Feb. 27
51,974
69,800
27%
Colorado
March 15 – March 6
6,073
7,500
19%
Connecticut
March 15 – Feb. 6
7,214
8,000
28%
Delaware
March 15 – Feb. 6
1,202
1,600
20%
Florida
March 15 – March 6
31,616
35,900
17%
Georgia
March 15 – Feb. 27
16,755
21,200
25%
Hawaii
March 15 – Feb. 27
436
60
1%
Idaho
March 15 – Feb. 20
1,829
1,900
14%
Illinois
March 15 – Feb. 27
22,710
24,000
23%
Indiana
March 15 – Jan. 30
9,967
11,500
20%
Iowa
March 15 – Feb. 20
5,336
5,000
17%
Kansas
March 15 – Feb. 27
4,734
5,100
20%
Kentucky
March 15 – Feb. 20
4,585
7,500
16%
Louisiana
March 15 – Feb. 20
9,439
11,100
25%
Maine
March 15 – March 6
704
800
6%
Maryland
March 15 – March 6
7,941
10,200
20%
Massachusetts
March 15 – Feb. 27
16,067
10,200
18%
Michigan
March 15 – Feb. 20
16,332
19,500
21%
Minnesota
March 15 – Feb. 27
6,543
6,100
14%
Mississippi
March 15 – Feb. 27
6,669
9,000
29%
Missouri
March 15 – Feb. 20
8,151
11,900
19%
Montana
March 15 – Feb. 27
1,357
1,700
17%
Nebraska
March 15 – Feb. 20
2,169
2,700
17%
Nevada
March 15 – Feb. 27
4,957
5,800
22%
New Hampshire
March 15 – Feb. 27
1,170
1,100
9%
New Jersey
March 15 – March 6
23,555
23,500
32%
New Mexico
March 15 – Feb. 13
3,518
4,300
25%
New York (excluding N.Y.C.)
March 15 – March 13
18,195
24,100
24%
New York City
March 15 – March 13
30,173
31,500
58%
North Carolina
March 15 – Sept. 26
3,458
6,300
12%
North Dakota
March 15 – Feb. 6
1,453
1,400
21%
Ohio
March 15 – Feb. 27
17,239
22,400
19%
Oklahoma
March 15 – Feb. 20
4,155
7,900
21%
Oregon
March 15 – Feb. 20
2,158
3,300
10%
Pennsylvania
March 15 – Feb. 20
23,615
25,300
20%
Puerto Rico
March 15 – Dec. 19
1,342
1,700
8%
Rhode Island
March 15 – Feb. 13
2,290
2,000
21%
South Carolina
March 15 – March 6
8,719
12,000
24%
South Dakota
March 15 – Feb. 13
1,837
1,800
24%
Tennessee
March 15 – Feb. 27
11,299
14,200
19%
Texas
March 15 – Feb. 27
43,772
57,800
29%
Utah
March 15 – March 6
1,975
2,900
15%
Vermont
March 15 – March 13
214
600
12%
Virginia
March 15 – March 6
9,518
12,200
18%
Washington State
March 15 – Feb. 20
4,846
5,000
9%
Washington, D.C.
March 15 – Feb. 20
994
1,400
24%
West Virginia
March 15 – Jan. 16
1,761
2,800
15%
Wisconsin
March 15 – Feb. 27
7,019
8,200
16%
Wyoming
March 15 – Feb. 20
662
900
22%
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.
During the period of our analysis, estimated excess deaths were 15 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through March 24, the total death toll would be about 628,000.
For comparison, around 600,000 Americans die from cancer in a normal year. The number of unusual deaths for this period is also higher than the typical number of annual deaths from Alzheimers, stroke or diabetes.
Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths fromother causeshave risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots havebecome overwhelmedand people have been scared toseek care for ailmentsthat are typically survivable. Some causes of deathmay be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
Drug deaths alsorose steeplyin the first half of 2020, according topreliminaryC.D.C. mortality datathat runs through June of last year, a trend that began before the coronavirus pandemic arrived.
Methodology
Total death numbers are estimates from theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths. Coronavirus death numbers are from theNew York Times databaseof reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals. Covid-19 deaths include both confirmed and probable deaths from the virus.
Our charts show weekly deaths above or below normal. They include weeks in which the C.D.C. estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or estimated deaths are above expected death numbers. Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, these state charts show death trends for slightly different time periods. We have not included weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C. estimate. North Carolina data has not been available from the C.D.C. since October 2020.
Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of all-cause deaths from 2015 to 2019, adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time.
Excess death numbers are rounded.
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