Visualizing the possible outcomes with one week to go.
Visualizing the possible outcomes with one week to go.
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Week 17 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team
ByJosh KatzandKevin QuealyDec. 29, 2019
Updated Sunday 4:38 PM ET
At first glance, the N.F.L. playoff picture might seem settled: Every division in the A.F.C. already has a champion, and five of six of the N.F.C.’s playoff spots are already spoken for. But the results of Sunday’s games remain hugely important, even for the teams that already clinched a playoff berth.
TheSan Francisco 49ers, for example, could find themselves with the N.F.C.’s top seed, a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they beat the Seahawks on Sunday night. A loss, on the other hand, would mean the No. 5 seed and a first-round away game.
These scenarios can be difficult to follow, which is why we’ve made these diagrams, which exhaustively list the range of outcomes for every team that is in or has a shot at the playoffs.
The 49ers tree is simple: All that matters is the outcome of a single game. But for other teams, like theSteelersandRaiders, things are more convoluted. As you settle into your favorite chair on Sunday, we recommend keeping these charts nearby. They’ll give you all you need to know to watch this week’s games like a champ — no TV commentators required.
Patriots ✓ (12-4)
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 3
The Patriots have won their11th consecutive division title.
The No. 2 seed is the likeliest outcome for the Patriots. Their path to it is simple: beat the Dolphins or have the Chiefs lose to the Chargers in Week 17.
Bills ✓ (10-6)
Best possible outcome: No. 5
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
The Bills are in the playoffs and have clinched the No. 5 seed after their loss to New England.
Jets ✗ (7-9)
Dolphins ✗ (5-11)
Ravens ✓ (13-2)
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 1
The Baltimore Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C.
Steelers (8-7)
Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have a chance to make the playoffsas the No. 6 A.F.C. seed.
A win and a Titans loss would clinch a playoff berth for the Steelers.
A Titans win eliminates them.
If the Steelers and Titans both lose,it’s complicated.
Browns ✗ (6-10)
Bengals ✗ (2-14)
Texans ✓ (10-5)
Best possible outcome: No. 3
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Houston Texans have won the A.F.C. South and clinched a playoff berth, probably as a No. 4 seed. They can get the No. 3 seedif they win and the Chiefs lose.
Titans (8-7)
Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
Despite losing to the Saints on Sunday, the Titans have a clear path to the playoffs. A win in their final game would clinch a berth. They can also get in with a loss ifthe Colts and Steelers both lose.
Colts ✗ (7-8)
Jaguars ✗ (5-10)
Chiefs ✓ (12-4)
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Chiefs are inthe playoffsand can do no worse than the No. 4 seed. A win and a Patriots loss in Week 17 clinches a bye week for the Chiefs.
Raiders (7-8)
Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
Our simulator suggests the Raiders have about a 7 percent chance to make the playoffs — welcome odds for any 7-8 team. The tree below depicts all the ways their season could end. To boil it down to one sentence: The Raiders must win and hope at least three other games go their way. Butit is possible.
Broncos ✗ (6-9)
Chargers ✗ (5-11)
Eagles (8-7)
Best possible outcome: No. 4
Worst possible outcome: Out
Like the Cowboys, the Eagles have just one route to the playoffs: as a division champion, which would earn them the No. 4 seed. A win in Week 17 or a Cowboys loss would clinch a playoff berth.
Cowboys (7-8)
Best possible outcome: No. 4
Worst possible outcome: Out
The best and only N.F.C. seed the Cowboys can hope for is No. 4, hosting the No. 5 seed — either the 49ers or Seahawks. Their loss Sunday to the Eagles means they must win and the Eagles must lose in Week 17 for the Cowboys to make the playoffs.
Giants ✗ (4-11)
Redskins ✗ (3-12)
Packers ✓ (13-3)
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 3
The Packers are in the playoffs and have clinched the N.F.C. North with their win Monday over the Vikings. A win in Week 17 against the Lions would guarantee a bye week. The Packers can also get the No. 1 seed if they win and the 49ers lose.
Vikings ✓ (10-6)
Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: No. 6
The Vikings will be the No. 6 seed, visiting the No. 3 seed in the first round of the playoffs.
Bears ✗ (8-8)
Lions ✗ (3-12-1)
Saints ✓ (13-3)
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 3
The New Orleans Saints have won the N.F.C. South and have secured a playoff berth, but theyneed helpto get a bye week. If they beat the Panthers in Week 17, a bye week is more likely than not: They would need a Lions win or a Seahawks win.
Falcons ✗ (7-9)
Buccaneers ✗ (7-9)
Panthers ✗ (5-11)
49ers ✓ (12-3)
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
A win in the 49ers’ final game, against the Seahawks, wouldclinch a No. 1 seed, with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. A loss in that game would mean entering the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, visiting the Cowboys or Eagles in the first round of the playoffs.
Seahawks ✓ (11-4)
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
The Seahawks are in the playoffs and play the 49ers for the N.F.C West title in Week 17, but they also need a Packers loss to secure a bye week. ANo. 1 seedis also possible if the Seahawks win and the Packers and Saints lose.
Rams ✗ (8-7)
Cardinals ✗ (5-9-1)