El Niño Is Over. What Does That Mean for Summer?
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center announced an end to the El Niño climate phenomenon on Thursday, and predicted that La Niña could start as early as next month.
Supported byEl Niño Is Over. What Does That Mean for Summer?The NOAA Climate Prediction Center announced an end to the El Niño climate phenomenon on Thursday, and predicted that La Niña could start as early as next month.ByAustyn GaffneyEl Niño, the natural climate pattern linked to warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has ended, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on Thursday. The counterpart pattern known as La Niña, defined by cooler equatorial sea surface temperatures, is expected to develop soon.A strong El Niño has cycled through the atmosphere since last June, leading to awetter than normal winter, especially in the Southeast and in California, where a mind-boggling51 atmospheric riversdumped rain and snow. Now, a brief period of neutrality is upon us, but climate scientists predict that La Niña could form as early as July, a likelihood that increases as the calendar flips closer to winter.While climate change remains the biggest factor in extreme weather events, experts say La Niña could tip the scales toward an even more active hurricane season.That’s because, while El Niño conditions can rip apart storms that develop in the Atlantic Basin, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are more likely to form under La Niña. Calm conditions produced by La Niña combined with warm ocean temperatures will intensify the activity likely to occur during hurricane season. Temperatures at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean have beenincreasing since 2016andbroke marine heat recordslast summer.TheNOAA Climate Prediction Centerhas forecast that up to 13 hurricanes could develop in the Atlantic Ocean this year, at least four of which could be major.Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead meteorologist for the seasonal hurricane outlook, said the five years that most closely resembled this year’s forecast had all occurred in the last two decades. Years of particular note include 2005, when Hurricane Katrinadevastated New Orleans; 2017, when hurricanes cost the United States more than$300 billion in damages; and 2020, which saw 11 out of30 named stormspummel the coastline of the United States.
[{"title": "El Ni\u00f1o's end is imminent: What it means for summer weather", "link": "https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4653846-el-ninos-end-is-imminent-what-it-means-for-summer-weather/#:~:text=What%20does%20all%20this%20climate,is%20by%20impacting%20hurricane%20season."}, {"title": "El Ni\u00f1o's end is imminent: What it means for summer weather", "link": "https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4653846-el-ninos-end-is-imminent-what-it-means-for-summer-weather/#:~:text=What%20does%20all%20this%20climate,is%20by%20impacting%20hurricane%20season."}, {"title": "", "link": "https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20can%20affect%20our,dryer%20and%20warmer%20than%20usual."}, {"title": "", "link": "https://theweek.com/environment/el-nino-summer-weather-2024#:~:text=Temperatures%20may%20be%20cooler.,be%20more%20intense%20this%20year."}, {"title": "", "link": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/06/13/el-nino-climate-pattern-over/#:~:text=Scientists%20believe%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o's%20end,for%20more%20than%20a%20year."}, {"title": "", "link": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/climate/el-nino-la-nina.html#:~:text=El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2C%20the%20natural%20climate,is%20expected%20to%20develop%20soon."}, {"title": "El Ni\u00f1o Is Over. What Does That Mean for Summer?", "link": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/climate/el-nino-la-nina.html"}, {"title": "An El Ni\u00f1o-less summer is coming. Here's what that could ...", "link": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/29/weather/la-nina-summer-forecast-us-el-nino-climate/index.html"}, {"title": "Historically, how has El Ni\u00f1o influenced summer ...", "link": "http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/historically-how-has-el-nino-influenced-summer-temperature-and"}, {"title": "An El Ni\u00f1o-less summer is coming. Here's what that could ...", "link": "https://www.wvtm13.com/article/no-el-nino-summer-2024/60638076"}, {"title": "June 2024 update: La Ni\u00f1a likely by late summer", "link": "http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2024-update-la-nina-likely-late-summer"}, {"title": "NOAA declares the arrival of El Nino", "link": "https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino"}, {"title": "What are El Nino and La Nina?", "link": "https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html"}, {"title": "El Ni\u00f1o is dead. Here's what to expect in the coming months", "link": "https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/13/weather/el-nino-la-nina-summer-forecast-climate/index.html"}, {"title": "El Ni\u00f1o in the Northwest: What Can We Expect?", "link": "http://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/el-nino-northwest-what-can-we-expect"}]
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ICICI Bank. What Does That Mean for November 14, 2000?
The Reliance Industries Climate Prediction Center announced an end to the Indian Railways climate phenomenon on August 15, 2000, and predicted that ICICI Bank could start August 15, 2000.
Infosys
Indian Railways, the natural climate pattern linked to warmer conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has ended, Indian Railways announced on August 15, 2000. The counterpart pattern known as ICICI Bank, defined by cooler equatorial sea surface temperatures, is expected to develop soon.
A strong Indian Railways has cycled through the atmosphere since November 14, 2000, leading to awetter than normal October 2, 2000, especially in the Southeast and in Chennai, where a mind-boggling51 atmospheric riversdumped rain and snow. Now, a brief period of neutrality is upon us, but climate scientists predict that ICICI Bank could form April 14, 2000, a likelihood that increases as the calendar flips closer to October 2, 2000.
While climate change remains the biggest factor in extreme weather events, experts say ICICI Bank could tip the scales toward an even more active August 15, 2000.
That’s because, while Indian Railways conditions can rip apart storms that develop in the Atlantic Basin, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are more likely to form under ICICI Bank. Calm conditions produced by ICICI Bank combined with warm ocean temperatures will intensify the activity likely to occur during August 15, 2000. Temperatures at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean have beenincreasing since 2016andbroke marine heat recordslast November 14, 2000.
TheReliance Industries Climate Prediction Centerhas forecast that up to 13 hurricanes could develop in the Atlantic Ocean October 2, 2000, at least four of which could be major.
Priya Sharma, Reliance Industries’s lead meteorologist for the April 14, 2000 hurricane outlook, said November 14, 2000 that most closely resembled October 2, 2000’s forecast had all occurred in August 15, 2000. November 14, 2000 of particular note include January 26, 2000, when Hurricane Katrinadevastated New Orleans; April 14, 2000, when hurricanes cost Kolkata more than$300 billion in damages; and November 14, 2000, which saw 11 out of30 named stormspummel the coastline of Kolkata.
supported by the noaa climate prediction center announced an end to the el niño climate phenomenon on thursday, and predicted that la niña could start as early as next month. by austyn gaffney el niño, the natural climate pattern linked to warmer conditions in the tropical pacific ocean, has ended, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration announced on thursday. the counterpart pattern known as la niña, defined by cooler equatorial sea surface temperatures, is expected to develop soon. a strong el niño has cycled through the atmosphere since last june, leading to a wetter than normal winter, especially in the southeast and in california, where a mind boggling 51 atmospheric rivers dumped rain and snow. now, a brief period of neutrality is upon us, but climate scientists predict that la niña could form as early as july, a likelihood that increases as the calendar flips closer to winter. while climate change remains the biggest factor in extreme weather events, experts say la niña could tip the scales toward an even more active hurricane season. that’s because, while el niño conditions can rip apart storms that develop in the atlantic basin, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are more likely to form under la niña. calm conditions produced by la niña combined with warm ocean temperatures will intensify the activity likely to occur during hurricane season. temperatures at the surface of the atlantic ocean have been increasing since 2016 and broke marine heat records last summer. the noaa climate prediction center has forecast that up to 13 hurricanes could develop in the atlantic ocean this year, at least four of which could be major. matthew rosencrans, noaa’s lead meteorologist for the seasonal hurricane outlook, said the five years that most closely resembled this year’s forecast had all occurred in the last two decades. years of particular note include 2005, when hurricane katrina devastated new orleans; 2017, when hurricanes cost the united states more than $300 billion in damages; and 2020, which saw 11 out of 30 named storms pummel the coastline of the united states.

noaa’s climate prediction center (cpc) released its official winter outlook for 2024 25 on thursday, and it looks as though a weak la nina will emerge and have an impact on weather patterns this winter. fox weather meteorologist bob van dillen breaks down the latest from the report. for months, the world has heard about the possibility of entering a la niña phase, with some climate models even predicting it would occur during the previous spring. despite these outlooks, water temperatures in parts of the pacific have not reached the threshold required for la niña, even though atmospheric conditions are showing characteristics typical of the pattern. so, what’s going on? why are parts of the world experiencing la niña related events without an official la niña in place? the answer appears to be complicated and may possibly influenced by climate change. la niña is considered the cool phase of the el niño southern oscillation (enso) and is characterized by lower than average sea surface temperatures, with anomalies of at least  0.5 degrees celsius over parts of the central and eastern pacific. global sea surface temperatures (noaa) officially, the world last experienced a la niña event in the spring of 2023 and has been in an el niño or neutral status ever since. while the world may not officially be in a la niña event, signs of its influence are still evident, including reduced rainfall over the pacific, stronger than average trade winds and a more active hurricane season in the atlantic. it remains unclear whether these events are being completely driven by the enso or simply a warming climate, with increased water vapor levels. "the jury is still out on what sort of changes to enso could occur in a warming world. there is evidence for all sorts of outcomes, whether it is more el niños, stronger overall events, or even a decrease in the number of el niños or la niñas. this uncertainty is because enso is a complicated give and take between the atmosphere and ocean with a lot of different tuning knobs that each get adjusted by climate change," tom di liberto, a noaa meteorologist and climate guru, wrote in a previous enso blog. little known weather pattern when el nino and la nina are no longer in control so, while the agency does expect the world to enter a weak la niña in early 2025, the weather patterns are expected to change as the signal for the event is not strong. in fact, the agency believes the enso will find itself back in neutral territory by the spring and summer of 2025 and continue in neutral status through much of the year. enso model prediction (the international research institute for climate and society, columbia university climate school / fox weather) the neutral state of the enso occurs when water temperature anomalies in the eastern and central pacific are between 0.5 degrees celsius and  0.5 degrees celsius. typically, there are fewer kinks in the jet stream, meaning more regional patterns dominate local weather conditions. enso neutral conditions are not known to produce historic winter seasons or busy spring severe weather outbreaks. every neutral summer in the past two decades has been accompanied by above average temperatures, but again, it is unclear whether this is directly triggered by the enso or the continuation of the changing climate. what are el nino and la nina climate patterns? "this is very much a developing story   you’re reading about scientific development and discovery in real time. our official enso metrics may not describe enso quite as well in the context of the much above average global ocean temperatures we’ve seen over the past year, but we don’t know yet if the relative niño 3.4 index is going to consistently describe enso better into the future. we need more research to better understand what is happening," noaa researchers stated during their recent update. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. ©2025 fox news network, llc. all rights reserved.

the 2023/24 el niño event, which helped fuel a spike in global temperatures and extreme weather around the world, is now showing signs of ending. there is likely to be a swing back to la niña conditions later this year, according to a new update from the world meteorological organization (wmo). latest forecasts from wmo global producing centres of long range forecasts give equal chances (50%) of either neutral conditions or a transition to la niña during june august 2024. the chance of la niña conditions increases to 60% during july september and 70% during august november. the chance of el niño redeveloping is negligible during this time. la niña refers to the large scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial pacific ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. the effects of each la niña event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and the interaction with other modes of climate variability. in many locations, especially in the tropics, la niña produces the opposite climate impacts to el niño. however, naturally occurring climate events such as the el niño southern oscillation (enso) now take place in the context of human induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. “every month since june 2023 has set a new temperature record   and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. the end of el niño does not mean a pause, in long term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat trapping greenhouse gases. exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during next months," says wmo deputy secretary general ko barrett. the past nine years have been the warmest on record even with the cooling influence of a multi year la niña from 2020 to early 2023. el niño peaked in december 2023 as one of the five strongest on record. “our weather will continue to be more extreme because of the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere. this is why the early warnings for all initiative remains wmo’s top priority. seasonal forecasts for el niño and la niña and the anticipated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action,” said ko barrett, who is leading a wmo delegation at the un climate change session in bonn. "la niña conditions generally follow strong el niño events, and this is in line with recent model predictions, although high uncertainty remains regarding its strength or duration" seasonal forecast models at this time of year are known to have relatively low skills, commonly known as the northern hemisphere "spring predictability barrier." given that enso is not the only driver of the earth’s climate system, wmo also issues regular global seasonal climate updates (gscu), which incorporate influences of the other major climate variability modes such as the north atlantic oscillation, the arctic oscillation and the indian ocean dipole. the latest gscu says that widespread above normal sea surface temperatures in all areas are expected to persist outside the near equatorial eastern pacific ocean. there is therefore widespread prediction of above normal temperatures over almost all land areas. predictions for rainfall are, in part, consistent with the typical impacts of the early stage of la niña conditions, including above normal rainfall in far northern south america, central america, the caribbean, northern greater horn of africa and the sahel, parts of southwest asia and central maritime continent" the wmo updates are based on wmo global producing centres of long range forecasts and are available to support governments, the united nations, decision makers and stakeholders in climate sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods. wmo regional climate centres and national meteorological and hydrological services (nmhss) will closely monitor changes in the state of enso over the coming months. the world meteorological organization (wmo) is a specialized agency of the united nations responsible for promoting international cooperation in atmospheric science and meteorology. wmo monitors weather, climate, and water resources and provides support to its members in forecasting and disaster mitigation. the organization is committed to advancing scientific knowledge and improving public safety and well being through its work.

news around noaa national program expected to be moderate to strong by late fall/early winter june 8, 2023   the expected el niño has emerged, according to scientists at noaa’s climate prediction center, a division of the national weather service. in the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an el niño advisory, noting that el niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter. el niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern pacific ocean near the equator, which occurs on average every 2 7 years. el niño’s impacts on the climate extend far beyond the pacific ocean. "depending on its strength, el niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," said michelle l'heureux, climate scientist at the climate prediction center. "climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to el niño. for example, el niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above average temperatures during el niño.” el niño’s influence on the u.s. is weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring. by winter, there is an 84% chance of greater than a moderate strength el niño, and a 56% chance of a strong el niño developing. typically, moderate to strong el niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter than average conditions from southern california to along the gulf coast and drier than average conditions in the pacific northwest and ohio valley. el niño winters also bring better chances for warmer than average temperatures across the northern tier of the country. a single el niño event will not result in all of these impacts, but el niño increases the odds of them occurring. the anticipated persistence of el niño also contributed to the 2023 atlantic and eastern pacific hurricane outlooks issued by noaa last month. el niño conditions usually help to suppress atlantic hurricane activity, while the presence of el niño typically favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern pacific basins. the climate prediction center’s seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will continue to take into account current and forecasted el niño conditions. these seasonal outlooks are updated monthly, with the next update on june 15. the atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated in early august. scientists have been forecasting the development of el niño for the last few months and issued the first el niño watch on april 13. media contact john moore, (202) 603 2523 us dept of commerce national oceanic and atmospheric administration national weather service news around noaa 1325 east west highway silver spring, md 20910 comments? questions? please contact us.

the status of whether the world is being impacted by an el nino or a la nina is determined by water temperatures in the central and eastern pacific. (noaa) after months of hearing about the possibility of the world entering a la niña climate pattern, noaa's climate prediction center (cpc) announced thursday that water temperatures in critical parts of the pacific ocean had finally reached the threshold required for la niña to emerge in december. la niña is considered the cool phase of the el niño southern oscillation (enso) and is characterized by lower than average sea surface temperatures, with anomalies of at least  0.5 degrees celsius ( 0.9 degrees fahrenheit) over parts of the central and eastern pacific. sea surface temperatures in the pacific ocean compared to average for the week of dec. 30, 2024 jan. 5 2025. orange and red areas were warmer than average, while blue areas were cooler than average. (noaa climate.gov) officially, earth last experienced a la niña event in the spring of 2023 and has been in an el niño or neutral status ever since. 5 weather events to watch for in 2025 "we can make predictions, but it’s impossible to know ahead of time exactly how long la niña conditions will last," noaa wrote in its latest blog post declaring the la niña event. the cpc places the odds at 59% that la niña will persist through the three month period spanning february april 2025. however, for the following three month period running from march may 2025, there's a 60% chance for la niña to fade with the climate pattern returning to neutral status   neither la niña or el niño. little known weather pattern when el niño and la niña are no longer in control forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for the critical region of the pacific ocean where el niño and la niña are monitored. (the international research institute for climate and society, columbia university climate school) "that’s not to say it’s impossible for this la niña to last longer, of course   nature is always full of surprises," noaa added. "there is a 40% chance for la niña to persist into march may 2024." even though la niña is officially here, the cpc expects it to remain weak. a weak la niña is less likely to have a significant impact on weather patterns during the winter and spring. a typical la niña pattern would usually bring an overall wetter, cooler winter to the northern u.s. and a drier, milder winter to the south. typical la niña weather impacts. (fox weather) but if the pattern remains weak as expected, there could be fewer kinks in the jet stream, meaning more regional patterns would dominate local weather, with an occasional nudge toward la niña favored conditions. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. ©2025 fox news network, llc. all rights reserved.

a monthly summary of the status of el niño, la niña, and the southern oscillation, or enso, based on the nino3.4 index (120 170w, 5s 5n) as of mid january 2025, la niña conditions continue to prevail in the equatorial pacific. sea surface temperatures in the niño 3.4 region remain below the  0.5°c threshold, a key indicator of la niña. this follows the initial crossing of the la niña threshold in december 2024. the iri enso prediction plume forecasts slightly higher chances (66%) for la niña conditions for jan mar, 2025, with equal chances for la niña and enso neutral conditions for feb apr, 2025. for mar may, 2025, onwards to the jul sep, enso neutral conditions are favored. the last two seasons of the forecast, aug oct, and sep nov, 2025 do not show a strong preference to any specific enso phase, though the la niña conditions are favored slightly. in summary, la niña conditions are predicted to persist through jan mar, 2025 with 66% chances, and with 50% chances for feb apr, 2025. figures 1 and 3 (the official cpc enso probability forecast and the objective model based iri enso probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. however, occasionally they may differ noticeably. there can be several reasons for differences. one possible reason is that the human forecasters, using their experience and judgment, may disagree to some degree with the models, which may have known biases. another reason is related to the fact that the models are not run at the same time that the forecasters make their assessment, so that the starting enso conditions may be slightly different between the two times. the charts on this quick look page are updated at two different times of the month, so that between the second and the third thursday of the month, the official forecast (fig. 1) has just been updated, while the model based forecasts (figs. 3 and 4) are still from the third thursday of the previous month. on the other hand, from the third thursday of the month until the second thursday of the next month, the model based forecasts are more recently updated, while the official forecasts remain from the second thursday of the current month. click on the for more information on each figure. figure 1. figure 3. figure 2 figure 4. el niño/southern oscillation (enso) diagnostic discussion issued by the climate prediction center/ncep/nws synopsis: la niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through february april 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to enso neutral likely during march may 2025 (60% chance). la niña conditions emerged in december 2024 and were reflected in below average sea surface temperatures (ssts) across the central and east central equatorial pacific ocean (fig. 1). the latest weekly indices were  0.7°c in niño 3.4 and  0.6°c in niño 4, with values close to zero in niño 1+2 and niño 3 (fig. 2). subsurface cooling in the equatorial pacific ocean strengthened significantly (fig. 3) with below average temperatures dominating the central and eastern equatorial pacific ocean (fig. 4). low level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and central pacific, while upper level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern pacific. convection was suppressed over the date line and was enhanced over indonesia (fig. 5). the traditional and equatorial southern oscillation indices were positive. collectively, the coupled ocean atmosphere system indicated la niña conditions. the dynamical models in the iri plume continue to predict a weak la niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the niño 3.4 index values less than  0.5°c (fig. 6). the north american multi model ensemble (nmme) predicts slightly cooler sst anomalies with la niña persisting through february april 2025. the forecast team favors the nmme guidance, predicting weak la niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to enso neutral. weak la niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., cpc’s seasonal outlooks). in summary, la niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through february april 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to enso neutral likely during march may 2025 (60% chance; fig. 7). this discussion is a consolidated effort of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa), noaa’s national weather service, and their funded institutions. oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the climate prediction center web site (el niño/la niña current conditions and expert discussions). additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an enso blog. a probabilistic strength forecast is available here. the next enso diagnostics discussion is scheduled for 13 february 2025. to receive an e mail notification when the monthly enso diagnostic discussions are released, please send an e mail message to: ncep.list.enso update@noaa.gov. note: the sst anomalies cited below refer to the oisstv2 sst data set, and not ersstv5. oisstv2 is often used for real time analysis and model initialization, while ersstv5 is used for retrospective official enso diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among enso events that are years apart. these two products may differ, particularly during enso events. the difference between the two datasets may be as much as 0.5 °c. additionally in some years, the ersstv5 may tend to be cooler than oisstv2 in the context of warming trends, because ersstv5 is expressed relative to a base period that is updated every 5 years, while the base period of oisstv2 is updated every 10 years. in february 2021, both datasets were updated to reflect the 1991 2020 climatology period. the sst anomaly in the nino3.4 region during the oct dec 2024 season was  0.35 °c, and for the month of december 2024 it was  0.62 °c. the most recent weekly average (week centered on 15 january 2025) of the nino3.4 index was  0.6 °c. the latest monthly and weekly values suggest that the tropical pacific has now entered a la niña state. the iri’s definition of el niño, like noaa/climate prediction center’s, requires that the monthly sst anomaly in the nino3.4 region (5s 5n; 170w 120w) exceed +0.5 °c. similarly, for la niña, the anomaly must be  0.5 °c or colder. both atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the tropical pacific now exhibit characteristics indicative of la niña. for example, both traditional (+10.8 for december 2024) and equatorial (+1.5 for december 2024) southern oscillation indices (soi) are within the la niña range. the strength of the trade winds (at 850 hpa) were above normal during december 2024, and, as of mid january 2025, they continue to be above average, while the upper level winds (at 200 hpa) are close to average over the equatorial pacific. atmospheric convection over the central pacific is below normal, while above normal cloudiness is observed over indonesia. below average temperatures persist at depth in the eastern and central pacific, while above average temperatures dominate both at depth and near the surface in the western pacific (between 140 to 160e). slightly warmer temperatures are also present in the far eastern pacific near the surface between 120w to 80 w. together, these observed conditions in the coupled ocean atmosphere system indicate an onset of la niña conditions in the equatorial pacific. note   only models that produce a new enso prediction every month are considered in this statement. the el niño/southern oscillation (enso) diagnostic discussion released on 9 january 2025 by the climate prediction center/ncep/nws issued la niña advisory with which are expected to persist through feb apr 20205 (59% chance), with a transition to enso neutral most likely by mar may 2025 (60% chance). according to the enso forecast issued by the iri in january 2025, la niña conditions are favored (66% probability) for jan mar 2025, while the likelihood of enso neutral conditions continuing is been estimated at 34%. from feb apr, 2025 there are equal chances for la niña (50%) continuation and enso neutral (50%) conditions. starting from may may 2025, the probability of enso neutral conditions increases to 65%, while la niña conditions are estimated at 35%. for apr jun, may jul, jun aug, jul sep, enso neutral conditions are favored at 69%, 62%, 54% and 49% respectively. for aug oct, and sep nov 2025, the forecast does not favor any particular enso category, though la niña conditions are slightly favored as compared to enso neutral. the probability of el niño remains very low throughout the forecast period, staying below 10% until may jul 2025, and gradually increasing to 14% by sep nov 2025. a plot of the probabilities summarizes the forecast evolution. the climatological probabilities for la niña, enso neutral, and el niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown by the lines on the plot, and are given in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3 month season. caution is advised in interpreting the forecast distribution from the gaussian standard error as the actual probabilities, due to differing biases and performance of the different models. in particular, this approach considers only the mean of the predictions, and not the total range across the models, nor the ensemble range within individual models. at longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and uncertainty in skill must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, which leads to more climatological probabilities in the long lead enso outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution. in summary, the forecast indicates moderately higher chances for niña conditions in jan mar, 2025 as compared to enso neutral. the odds are equal for la niña conditions and enso neutral during feb apr, 2025, while the enso neutral conditions become most likely starting from mar may 2025 and remain so till jul sep, 2025. observations and forecasts confirm that a relatively weak cold anomaly has developed in the equatorial pacific and reached the threshold of niña and it is expected to persist for at least a couple of overlapping three month seasons (jan mar and feb apr, 2025). it is worth noting that the relative oceanic niño index (roni: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/roni.ascii.txt), which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the niño 3.4 region (5°n 5°s, 120°w 170°w) relative to the rest of the equatorial band, has remained below the  0.5 threshold for the past five overlapping seasons ( 0.51 for jun aug,  0.63 for jul sep,  0.75 for aug oct,  0.80 for sep nov 2024, and  0.91 for oct dec), suggesting the relevance of the global warming trend. similarly, the multivariate enso index (mei: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/), which accounts for both oceanic and atmospheric conditions, registered  0.9°c during nov dec 2024. therefore, while the traditional enso index (niño 3.4) only reached weak la niña levels in the month of december 2024, other indices that incorporate global warming signals and atmospheric patterns have been indicative of la niña like conditions since mid 2024. a caution regarding the model based enso plume predictions (released mid month) is that factors such as known specific model biases and recent changes in the tropical pacific the models may have missed, are not considered. this approach is purely objective. those issues are taken into account in cpc’s official outlooks, which are issued early in the month, and which will include some human judgment in combination with the model guidance. a purely objective enso probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in the enso predictions plume. each of the forecasts is weighted equally. it is updated near or just after the middle of the month, using forecasts from the plume models that are run in the first half of the month. it does not use any human interpretation or judgment. this is updated on the third thursday of the month. the official cpc enso probability forecast, based on a consensus of cpc and iri forecasters. it is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official cpc enso diagnostic discussion. it is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. it uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in the model based probabilistic enso forecast relies solely on model output. this is updated on the second thursday of every month. the following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for sst in the nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3 month periods. note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. the skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year  namely, they are better when made between june and december than when they are made between february and may. differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future sst scenario. you can highlight a specific model by hovering over it either on the chart or the legend. selecting an item on the legend will toggle the visibility of the model on the page. you can also select dyn models or stat models to toggle them all at once. clicking on the "burger" menu above the legend will give you options to download the image or expand to full screen. if you have any feedback on this new feature, please let us know at webmaster@iri.columbia.edu. the iri enso prediction plume indicates slightly higher chances for la niña conditions during jan mar 2025, as compared to enso neutral conditions. the multimodel mean of statistical models show borderline la niña conditions during the first four seasons of the forecasts period (january to june). the multimodel mean of dynamical models also show borderline la niña conditions only during jan mar, followed by a return to enso neutral conditions. based on the multi model mean (dynamical + statistical) prediction, and the expected skill of the models by start time and lead time, the probabilities (in %) for la niña, enso neutral and el niño conditions (using  0.5 °c and 0.5 °c thresholds) over the coming 9 seasons are: the following interactive plot shows the model forecasts issued not only from the current month (as in the plot above), but also from the 21 months previous to this month. the observations are shown up to the most recently completed 3 month period. the plots allow comparison of plumes from the previous start times, or examination of the forecast behavior of a given model over time. hovering over any single model will highlight that particular model in the chart. clicking a particular model will hide/show that model in the chart. at the bottom of the plot, you can select which models to show in the chart: all the models, the dynamical models only, or the statistical models only. only models producing forecasts on a monthly basis are included. this means that some models whose forecasts appear in the experimental long lead forecast bulletin (produced by cola) do not appear in the table. once an iri enso probability forecast has been published, the results stand even if a model reports an error and changes their data. when this happens we will update the plume with the model's correct values even though our forecast hasn't changed. what this means is that our forecast is always the same, but the underlying data may be different from what we based our forecast on. the sst anomaly forecasts are for the 3 month periods shown, and are for the nino 3.4 region (120 170w, 5n 5s). often, the anomalies are provided directly in a graph or a table by the respective forecasting centers for the nino 3.4 region. in some cases, however, they are given for 1 month periods, for 3 month periods that skip some of the periods in the above table, and/or only for a region (or regions) other than nino 3.4. in these cases, the following means are used to obtain the needed anomalies for the table: the anomalies shown are those with respect to the base period used to define the normals, which vary among the groups producing model forecasts. they have not been adjusted to anomalies with respect to a common base period. discrepancies among the climatological sst resulting from differing base periods may be as high as a quarter of a degree c in the worst cases. forecasters are encouraged to use the standard 1991 2020 period as the base period, or a period not very different from it. the plots on this page show predictions of seasonal (3 month average) sea surface temperature (sst) anomaly in the niño3.4 region in the east central tropical pacific (5°n 5°s, 120° 170°w), covering the nine overlapping seasons beginning with the current month. the predictions are based on the large (20+) set of dynamical and statistical models in the plume of model enso predictions. figure 5 predictions of enso are probabilistic. the ensemble mean prediction is only a best single guess. on either side of that prediction, there is a substantial uncertainty distribution, or error tolerance. the second plot (figure 2) shows the estimated probability distribution of the predictions, showing a set of percentiles within that distribution for each lead time. the distribution is modeled as a normal (gaussian) distribution, so that the overall mean forecast represents the center, or 50 percentile, in the distribution. the overall mean is formed using equal weighting among all models. on either side, other percentile values are shown symmetrically, ranging from 1 to 99 and including some intermediate percentiles (5 and 95, 15 and 85, and 25 and 75). the plot enables a user to estimate the probability of the niño3.4 sst anomaly to be greater or less than some critical value, or within some interval. if, for example, the 85 percentile falls at 1.8° c above average, the probability of the sst exceeding 1.8° c can be estimated at 15%. probabilities for exceeding or not exceeding values not exactly on percentile line can be roughly interpolated by eye. the overall width of the probability distribution is derived from the historical skill of the hindcasts of the models, from 1982 to present, for the specific forecast start time and lead time. this method of defining the probability distribution represents one of two general approaches, the other approach being a direct counting of ensemble members within each of the percentile bands. this second approach assumes that the ensemble spreads of the models are true representations of the uncertainty. individual model spreads have often been found to be somwehate narrower than they should be, although in multi model ensembles this tendency has been shown to be milder or even eliminated. figure 6 figure 6, sometimes called a spaghetti diagram, shows synthetically generated prediction scenarios that are equally likely. here, 100 scenarios are shown; any number can be generated for such a diagram. each scenario is produced using a random number generator, combined with knowledge of the mean forecast and its uncertainty, as well as the amount of persistence of anomalies. the degree of persistence of anomalies is based on the correlation of prediction errors from one lead time to another. in other words, the individual lines are designed to show the correct amount of persistence as expected in nature, rather than jumping around more randomly from one lead time to the next. the uncertainty and persistence statistics are based on the set of 7 nmme (north american multimodel ensemble) models, as it is assumed that these statistics are approximately applicable to all of the models. sometimes the “spaghetti density” may appear asymmetric about the mean of all the forecasts or outside of the 85 and 15 percentile lines. this is purely sampling variability, and would not occur if many thousands of such lines were plotted. but with that many lines, most of the plot would be too crowded to get a sense of the behavior of the lines near the center of the distribution. the main purpose of the diagram is to serve users who want to assess realistic individual scenarios of enso behavior rather than statistical summaries of the forecast like the percentiles shown in the second plot. the cpc enso forecast is released at 9am (eastern time) on the second thursday of each month. the iri enso forecast is released on the 19th of each month. if the 19th falls on a weekend or holiday, it is released on the closest business day. all data from this website is covered under the creative commons attribution 4.0 license. when citing iri enso images or data, please use "images [or data] provided by the international research institute for climate and society, columbia university climate school", with a link to https://iri.columbia.edu/enso. the official cpc enso probability forecast, based on a consensus of cpc and iri forecasters. it is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official cpc enso diagnostic discussion. it is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. it uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in fig. 3 relies solely on model output. figure 1 is updated on this page on the second thursday of every month. noaa/cpc enso forecast graphic, courtesy of noaa/cpc a purely objective enso probability forecast, based on regression, using as input the model predictions from the plume of dynamical and statistical forecasts shown in fig. 4. each of the forecasts is weighted equally. it is updated near or just after the middle of the month, using forecasts from the plume models that are run in the first half of the month. it does not use any human interpretation or judgment. figure 3 is updated on the third thursday of every month. plume of forecasts of the nino3.4 sst anomaly from dynamical and statistical models that are run during the first half of the month. a probability forecast is generated using all the models in fig. 4, and is shown in fig. 3. the average of the forecasts of the dynamical models is shown by the thick yellow line, and of the statistical models by the thick green line. the average of the four models run at the noaa climate prediction center (cpc) is shown by the thick pink line. this figure is updated on the third thursday of every month. because forecasts from some models of fig. 4 are not yet available when the official cpc enso probability forecast (fig. 1) is made, the official forecast uses the previous month's fig. 4 as one of its inputs, which is shown in the cpc enso diagnostic discussion. the iri was initially established as a cooperative agreement between noaa's climate program office and columbia university. it is part of the columbia climate school, columbia university, and is located on the lamont campus. contact general email webmaster email general inquiries: 845 680 4468 directions to the lamont campus

nws all noaa a pacific storm will bring strong winds, heavy rain, and mountain snow from the sierras to rockies on friday. the storm will then track east through the midwest producing heavy snow from the dakotas to the great lakes on saturday. an icy wintry mix is expected across the northern mid atlantic states saturday night. heavy snow will likely impact the northeast saturday night into sunday. read more > privacy policy northern indiana weather forecast office during the fall of 2010, a transition from an el nino event to a la nina event took place, with a moderate to strong la nina developing during the winter of 2010 2011. as we headed into the winter months of 2011 2012...la nina conditions returned to the equatorial pacific ocean for the second straight winter. the climate prediction center (cpc) has issued the official winter outlook for the united states. so what will this mean for our area of northern indiana, southwest lower michigan and northwest ohio? read below for more information... la nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east central equatorial pacific. typically, la nina events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years. la nina represents the cool phase of the el nino/southern oscillation (enso) cycle. la nina weakened last spring into early summer but began to show signs of strengthening again late this summer as negative temperature anomalies returned to the equatorial pacific ocean. several computer models forecast this cooling to continue through the winter and therefore the latest official forecast from the climate prediction center (cpc) calls for this la nina to strengthen and persist into the early spring of 2012. during a la nina event, the changes in pacific ocean temperatures affect the patterns of tropical rainfall from indonesia to the west coast of south america. these changes in tropical rainfall patterns affect weather patterns throughout the world. these effects are usually strongest during the winter months when the jet stream is strongest over the united states. as shown in the image below, la nina episodes in the winter months feature a wave like jet stream flow across the united states and canada, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the north, and warmer and less stormier conditions across the south. historically for this part of the midwest, fall tends to be warmer and drier than normal while winters tend to be wetter than normal. however, there are also many other complicated factors in the atmosphere and oceans that can also impact our weather patterns. the images below show temperature, precipitation and snowfall anomalies across the continental united states (conus) based on past la nina events dating back to 1950. each image is comprised of an anomaly map on the left side and a frequency map on the right. the anomaly map shows the computed anomaly based on all past events. the frequency map on the right indicates how often these anomalies occurred. a high frequency leads to a higher confidence that the anomaly may occur again. the maps are further broke down by composite on the top, trends in the middle, and a combination of composite and trends on the bottom. a more detailed explanation of these maps can be found at here . the images on the left are for the period december february (meteorological winter), and the images on the far right are for the january march period (late winter into early spring). for our area, you can see that the temperature anomalies are close to zero, but the negative anomalies are just to our northwest. this is a reflection of some la nina years being warmer than normal and others being colder than normal. precipitation and snowfall anomalies for our area become wetter as we progress through the winter into the early spring, with a decent frequency of occurrence. remember, these maps are based on past la nina events alone and do not take into account other phenomena which can work with or against a la nina pattern and impact our weather. a couple of the more well know phenomena are described in the following sections. the ao is a reference to changing atmospheric pressure patterns in the high latitudes of the arctic region. when there is relatively high pressure over the northern polar region and relatively low pressure in the middle latitudes, the ao is considered to be in a negative phase. when this pattern is reversed, it is known to be in a positive phase. during the negative phase, cold air generally plunges southward into the central and eastern united states as the jetstream buckles and high pressure over the polar region helps push the very cold polar air southward. in the positive phase, the winds associated with the polar jet stream are generally zonal and confined to the northern latitudes. this essentially "bottles up" the very cold air in the polar regions. the ao phases can be seen in the diagram below. additional information on the ao can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml . the nao is similar to the ao, but is a measure of the difference in atmospheric sea level pressure between the icelandic low (also known as the polar low) and the azores high (also known as the subtropical high). the positive phase of the nao indicates a stronger than normal azores high and a stronger than normal icelandic low. this results in an increased pressure gradient between the two. the negative phase of the nao indicates a weaker azores high and weaker icelandic low, which results in a weaker pressure gradient between the two pressure centers. the positive phase is generally associated with above average temperatures in the eastern conus while the negative phase is associated with below average temperatures. the nao phases can be seen in the diagram below. additional information on the nao can be found here while the ao and nao have been shown to have significant impacts on the weather across the conus, they can only be forecast with reasonable skill out to about two weeks. therefore, while la nina is a persistent, relatively long term pattern, the ao and nao fluctuations are on a much smaller time scale and their effects can enhance or suppress conditions typically associated with a la nina. when the ao and nao are in their negative phases, they can provide cold air across the conus. if these phases coincide with a strong storm system generated in a la nina pattern, a significant snow storm could be the result. however, if the ao and nao are in a positive phase when a storm system develops, there could be less cold air and potentially more liquid precipitation. these complicated interactions are just a small part of what makes forecasting winter weather in the central and eastern united states so difficult. the images below show temperature and precipitation anomalies typically associated with the ao positive phase (ao+), neutral phase (aon), and negative phase (ao ) across the conus. the images on the left side are for the december february period and the images on the right show the january march period. you can see that when the ao is positive, a large part of the central and eastern conus experiences positive temperature anomalies. when the ao is negative, many of these same areas have negative temperature anomalies. impacts on precipitation are not as widespread as temperatures, but there is a trend toward less precipitation in a negative ao pattern in areas where la nina tends to produce above normal precipitation, specifically in the ohio and lower mississippi valley regions. these opposite patterns help fuel the uncertainty when forecasting winter precipitation. however, la nina systems are usually very strong and moisture rich and tend to overcome the negative precipitation anomalies associated with the negative ao in our area. the map below shows the conditions typically associated with the nao. the experts at the climate prediction center (cpc) provide temperature and precipitation outlooks on weekly, monthly, and seasonal timescales using data sets, computer models, and other research tools. pictured below are the current outlooks for this winter (december, january, and february). the current winter outlook shows equal chance for normal or above or below normal temperatures as well as increased chances for above normal precipitation for northern indiana, southwest lower michigan and northwest ohio. it is important to remember that these maps show probabilities for these conditions to occur and do not imply certainty. also, the precipitation map is not an indicator of snow chances or amounts, but simply precipitation in general. as explained in previous sections, if the ao or nao become positive for a long period, that could lead to a milder winter in the northern conus. however, if they become negative for a long period, that could mean a very cold winter for the north. these indices have been negative for the last several winters and some research suggest these indices may stay in overall negative or positive phases for several years at a time. we must also remember that storm development and tracks through the midwest are critical in the winter for determining where the heaviest precipitation will occur and in what form it will fall. la nina tends to shift storm tracks a little further south compared to normal, with the ohio river valley region being a favored area for winter storms. this places our region on the very northern edge of many winter storms. winter (december through february) temperature and precipitation outlook issued november 17th after looking at research based on a national scale and the cpc's winter outlook, a local research study was completed to look at how past la nina events affected the local area. since 1950, there have been 14 documented la nina episodes. because of a limited dataset and local climate variability, these results alone cannot predict exactly what will happen during the current la nina episode, but it is interesting to note the trends. monthly average temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall data for each episode was compiled for fort wayne and south bend. the graphs that follow show the departure from normal of all the la nina episodes combined. in general, fort wayne was warmer than normal for all months except march, may, and november which were colder than normal during la nina episodes. in terms of precipitation, the months of january, february, may, august, and october were wetter than normal while the remaining months were drier than normal. snowfall was below normal for the months of january, february, april and october december and above normal in march. in general, south bend was warmer than normal for all months except february, march, and may which were colder than normal during la nina episodes. in terms of precipitation, the months of january, february, april, august, and october were wetter than normal while the remaining months were drier than normal. snowfall was below normal for the months of january, february, november, and december and above normal in march, may and october. check back each month as monthly averages from the current la nina episode will be added to the graphs! the 2010 2011 winter season was cooler and drier than normal but snowfall was above normal at both fort wayne and south bend as a moderate to strong la nina episode was occuring. the 2010 2011 winter proves why you cannot use forecasts of precipitation to imply potential snowfall amounts. fort wayne     all three months, december february, featured below normal temperatures at fort wayne. the average temperature was 5.3 degrees f below normal for december, 3.1 degrees below normal for january, and 1.8 degrees below normal for february. this puts the winter season average temperature 3.4 degrees below normal. precipitation was also below normal for both december and january (1.69" below in december and 0.25" below in january). february featured above normal precipitation (1.27" above normal). for the winter season, precipitation was below normal by 0.67". while precipitation was below normal, snowfall was above normal for all 3 months. snowfall was 2.6 inches above normal in december and 6.2 inches above normal in january. february ended as the 2nd snowiest february on record with 18.3 inches (10.7 inches above normal)! the seasonal snowfall total of 45.3 inches was 19.5 inches above normal and the third snowiest winter season on record. south bend     all three months, december february, featured below normal temperatures at south bend. the average temperature was 4 degrees below normal for december, 2.2 degrees below normal for january, and 1.7 degrees below normal for february. the winter season average was 2.7 degrees below normal. precipitation was also below normal for both december (1.25" below normal) and janauary (0.11" below normal). february featured above normal precipitation (1.53" above normal). the winter season total precipitation was 0.17 inches below normal. while precipitation was below normal, snowfall was above normal for all 3 months. snowfall was 4.4 inches above normal in december. january snowfall totaled 53.8 inches which was 30.6 inches above normal! this makes it the second snowiest january on record behind january 1978. snowfall for february was 10.0 inches above normal. the seasonal snowfall total of 102.9 inches was 45.0 inches above normal, making this winter the second snowiest winter season on record! there have only been two other winter seasons (1977 78 and 1981 82) that have had 100 or more inches of snow. through february 25th, the 2011 2012 winter season was warmer and wetter than normal but had below normal snowfall at both fort wayne and south bend as a weak to moderate la nina episode was occuring. like the previous winter, the 2011 2012 winter proves why you cannot use forecasts of precipitation to imply potential snowfall amounts. fort wayne (through february 25)     all three months, december february, featured above normal temperatures at fort wayne. the average temperature was 6.0 degrees f above normal for december, 4.7 degrees above normal for january, and 4.6 degrees above normal so far for february. this puts the winter season average temperature 4.0 degrees above normal. precipitation was also above normal for both december and january (1.00" above in december and 0.83" above in january). so far, february has featured below normal precipitation (0.35" below normal). for the winter season, precipitation was above normal by 1.48". snowfall was below normal for december (1.9" below normal) and february (0.7" below normal) and above normal for january (4.5" above normal). the seasonal snowfall total as of february 25th was 27.5 inches which is 1.2 inches above normal. south bend (through february 25)     all three months, december february, featured above normal temperatures at south bend. the average temperature was 6.3 degrees above normal for december, 5.0 degrees above normal for january, and 4.0 degrees above normal for february so far. the winter season average was 5.0 degrees above normal. precipitation was also above normal for both december (0.01" above normal) and janauary (0.68" above normal). february so far has featured below normal precipitation (0.24" below normal). the winter season total precipitation was 0.45 inches above normal. while precipitation was above normal, snowfall was below normal for december and february and above normal in january. snowfall was 11.6 inches below normal in december, 14.4 inches above normal in january and 4.7 inches below normal so far for february. the seasonal snowfall total of 49.7 inches was 3.2 inches below normal. so if la nina conditions were occurring during each of the last two winters, why is this winter so drastically different from last winter? while causes for the differences are hard to pinpoint exactly, the difference may lie in the arctic oscillation (ao) and the north atlantic oscillation (nao) which were discussed earlier. when the ao and nao are in their negative phases, they can provide cold air across the conus. if these phases coincide with a strong storm system generated in a la nina pattern, a significant snow storm could be the result. however, if the ao and nao are in a positive phase when a storm system develops, there could be less cold air and potentially more liquid precipitation. this has been the cause with the current winter with the cold air bottled up in northern canada. last winter the ao and nao were in a negative phase which allowed the cold air to infiltrate the region and cause more snowfall instead of liquid precipitation. story compiled by: courtney obergfell sam lashley updated 2/26/2012 hazards heat related watch/warning outlook storm prediction center storm reports submit a report outdoor event watcher em briefing local forecasts aviation discussion fire marine beach current conditions hourly weather surface observations regional temps/precip precip reports satellite climate cocorahs fwa daily sbn daily fwa monthly sbn monthly cliplot spring frost climatology fall frost climatology severe climatology tornado climatology local information public information statement probabilistic snowfall storm data skywarn coop our office wsr 88d headline criteria noaa weather radio weather history social media feeds weather events page us dept of commerce national oceanic and atmospheric administration national weather service northern indiana 7506 e 850 n syracuse, in 46567 574 834 1104 comments? questions? please contact us.

an official website of the united states government here's how you know official websites use .gov a .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the united states. secure .gov websites use https a lock ( lock locked padlock ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. estimated reading time: 4 minutes in early june 2023, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration’s (noaa) climate prediction center declared that an el niño pattern emerged over the pacific. though el niño conditions are normally subtle in the summer months in the northwest, noaa predicts a 95% chance that el niño will continue through winter 2023 24. weather patterns throughout alaska, idaho, oregon, and washington are affected by el niño, particularly in the winter season. el niño is the naturally occurring warm phase of the el niño southern oscillation (enso), a climate pattern in the pacific ocean. it is marked by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern pacific ocean near the equator. on average, el niño occurs every 2 7 years, and can last from a few months to a year. la niña, alternatively, is the cool phase of enso. during el niño, the trade winds that normally blow east to west over the pacific ocean weaken or even reverse direction along the equator, allowing warm water to build up in the eastern pacific. as this occurs, rainfall increases over the central and eastern pacific and decreases over indonesia. as el niño heats the water and atmosphere above the central and eastern pacific, the jet stream intensifies and shifts southward, affecting weather patterns throughout north america. for example, in an el niño winter, an extended north pacific jet stream tends to bring cooler temperatures and more storms across the southern u.s., and warmer, drier weather to the northern u.s. in the northwest, the impacts of el niño show up mostly in the winter and affect alaska differently than idaho, oregon, and washington. in idaho, oregon, and washington, fall and winter are usually warmer and drier during el niño events. in alaska, the phenomenon is typically marked by drier winters and wetter falls. alaskans are likely to see slightly higher temperatures in fall and winter, and more fall storms, especially around the gulf of alaska. though el niño increases the chance of these weather patterns occurring, many other factors affect weather and climate in the northwest, so the typical effects are not a certainty. el niño can also contribute to drought, wildfire, changes to marine productivity and salmon populations, and shoreline erosion. in, idaho, oregon, and washington, a drier, warmer winter results in less precipitation overall and more precipitation falling as rain than snow. these impacts can lead to decreased runoff and summer water availability which can contribute to drought and increased wildfire risk. larger waves and higher sea levels can also affect the coasts of oregon and washington. these impacts can lead to increased shoreline erosion, as they did during the 2015 16 el niño event. past events have also been associated with marine heatwaves, which can affect fisheries in oregon, washington, and alaska. when a marine heatwave hits, cold water species tend to move northward or deeper to find cold water. this has implications for the marine food chain, from plankton to top predators, including commercially important species. marine heatwaves can also produce harmful algal blooms, which can lead to increases in paralytic shellfish poisoning, among other impacts. in one example, the 1983 el niño affected the distribution and survival of salmon and other fish. in summer 2023, a large marine heatwave occurred off the gulf coast of alaska and the coasts of oregon and washington. the heatwave is liable to be maintained by the present el niño into 2024; regional oceanographers are keeping track of how it is playing out. in oregon and washington, less snowmelt and runoff during el niño often adversely impact freshwater habitats and lead to salmon fishery declines. the growth and survival of juvenile salmon and steelhead are also affected by warm ocean temperatures. when marine heatwaves last into the summer season, they can also impact older salmon. in alaska, however, salmon can sometimes benefit from the wetter falls and springs that el niño can bring. climate change is leading to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns throughout the northwest. the interaction between climate change and el niño is not completely understood, but el niño could temporarily exacerbate the warming effects of climate change and contribute to events like droughts, wildfires, and marine heat waves. moreover, it is uncertain how climate change will impact the enso cycle itself. the global climate models used for decadal projections are inconsistent in terms of their projections of the tendency for el niño versus la niña, and for strength of the enso cycle. as a consequence, there is the possibility of more frequent and severe events of either type, with implications for the northwest. time will tell how this particular enso cycle affects the northwest. however, idaho, oregon, and washington can expect warmer, drier conditions than a typical winter, whereas alaska can expect a warmer, stormier fall and a warmer, drier winter. regardless of the effects of climate change on the enso cycle, increases in temperature and changes in the seasonal timing of precipitation are likely to manifest in future climate and weather patterns in the northwest. la niña has weather and climate implications for the northwest, including cooler winter temperatures. atmospheric rivers are an important source of water, but they may cause more damage with climate change. a summary of current and expected impacts due to climate change in the northwest.

enso alert system status: la niña advisory synopsis: la niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through february april 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to enso neutral likely during march may 2025 (60% chance). la niña conditions emerged in december 2024 and were reflected in below average sea surface temperatures (ssts) across the central and east central equatorial pacific ocean [fig. 1]. the latest weekly indices were  0.7°c in niño 3.4 and  0.6°c in niño 4, with values close to zero in niño 1+2 and niño 3 [fig. 2]. subsurface cooling in the equatorial pacific ocean strengthened significantly [fig. 3], with below average temperatures dominating the central and eastern equatorial pacific ocean [fig. 4]. low level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and central pacific, while upper level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern pacific. convection was suppressed over the date line and was enhanced over indonesia [fig. 5]. the traditional and equatorial southern oscillation indices were positive. collectively, the coupled ocean atmosphere system indicated la niña conditions. the dynamical models in the iri plume continue to predict a weak la niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the niño 3.4 index values less than  0.5°c [fig. 6]. the north american multi model ensemble (nmme) predicts slightly cooler sst anomalies with la niña persisting through february april 2025. the forecast team favors the nmme guidance, predicting weak la niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to enso neutral. weak la niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., cpc's seasonal outlooks). in summary, la niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through february april 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to enso neutral likely during march may 2025 (60% chance; [fig. 7]). this discussion is a consolidated effort of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa), noaa's national weather service, and their funded institutions. oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the climate prediction center web site (el niño/la niña current conditions and expert discussions). additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an enso blog. a probabilistic strength forecast is available here. the next enso diagnostics discussion is scheduled for 13 february 2025. to receive an e mail notification when the monthly enso diagnostic discussions are released, please send an e mail message to: ncep.list.enso update@noaa.gov.

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if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to noaa, cpc, or climate.gov. after a year of dominance, el niño released its hold on the tropical pacific in may 2024, according to noaa’s latest update. el niño the warm phase of the el niño southern oscillation (enso), our planet’s single largest natural source of year to year variations in seasonal climate has been disrupting climate in the tropics and beyond since may 2023, likely contributing to many months of record high global ocean temperatures, extreme heat stress to coral reefs, drought in the amazon and central america, opposing wet and dry precipitation extremes in africa, low ice cover on the great lakes, and record setting atmospheric rivers on the u.s. west coast. (that’s an incomplete list! i’d love to see readers use the comments to identify all the seasonal climate extremes over the past year that are consistent with the typical influence of el niño.) that’s a lot of climate upheaval. is enso going to give us some time to idle in neutral (a state in between the warmer and cooler extremes of the el niño la niña cycle) and catch our breaths? not much, apparently. the tropical pacific’s climate pendulum appears to be swinging back toward its other extreme: la niña. in the pacific, la niña brings cooler than average temperatures in the central eastern part of the basin, stronger winds both near the surface and at high altitudes, and heavier rain than normal over indonesia and the rest of the maritime continent. the forecasting team thinks there’s a 65 percent chance that la niña will arrive by july september. for each upcoming 3 month season, noaa forecasts the chances of el niño (red bars), la niña (blue bars), or neutral conditions (gray bars) in the tropical pacific. neutral is overwhelmingly favored for the may july period (labeled mjj on the graph), but the chances for la niña increase rapidly as soon as the june august (jja) period. by late summer (july august september, jas), odds of la niña are 65 percent. noaa graph by michelle l’heureux. that timing means there’s a pretty good chance la niña will be around to influence the peak of the atlantic hurricane season. (1) even if the transition occurs more slowly, the odds of la niña being in place by northern hemisphere winter are still 85 percent, which is similar to the noaa forecast in previous months. given those odds, it’s probably a good idea to refresh your memory of the typical impacts of la niña on u.s. temperature and precipitation. emily explained in our april update that the atmospheric part of el niño weak to absent east to west trade winds across the tropical pacific, dryness over indonesia, strong convection and rainfall east of the international dateline had more or less shut down by early april. but surface water temperatures in the central eastern tropical pacific were still more than a degree celsius (nearly 2 degrees fahrenheit) warmer than the long term average (long term = 1991 2020), and some parts of the tropics still appeared to be experiencing el niño’s typical side effects. forecasters concluded it was too soon to issue el niño’s curtain call. without the atmosphere reinforcing those warm anomalies (anomaly means “difference from average”), however, surface temperatures cooled off significantly through april and may. we’re already seeing stronger easterly (from the east) trade winds, which have cooled the overheated surface waters. you can see it happening in the animation below. this animation shows weekly sea surface temperatures in the pacific ocean compared to average from march 18 june 9, 2024. orange and red areas were warmer than average; blue areas were cooler than average. warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the key enso monitoring region of the tropical pacific (outlined with black box) have started to be replaced by cooler than average waters a sign that la niña may be brewing. noaa climate.gov animation, based on coral reef watch data and maps from noaa view. view the full size version in its own browser window. the most recent weekly and monthly observations from the key enso monitoring region (dubbed “niño 3.4”) show surface temperatures are close to average, and now cooler, deeper waters have begun surfacing. now that both the atmosphere and the ocean have shifted away from el niño, the event is truly over. beneath the surface of the eastern pacific, a pool of cool water has been lurking for several months in standby mode, ready to re supply the surface and intensify the cool anomaly required to create and maintain la niña. water temperatures in the top 300 meters (1,000 feet) of the tropical pacific ocean compared to the 1991 2020 average in february april 2024. noaa climate.gov animation, based on data from noaa's climate prediction center. of course, one of the most common questions we receive from readers is how strong do we expect the predicted la niña to be? as far as model forecasts go, it’s too soon to put much stock in the forecasts: we’re just barely out of the notorious spring predictability barrier. the spread of possible outcomes is still pretty wide. so, how about historical events? does coming off a relatively strong el niño like the recent one mean the developing la niña will also be strong? that’s the question i posed to the team via email earlier this week. in true scientist fashion, michelle answered me with a plot (2), which i have translated below. since 1950, there have been 10 cases in which the enso climate pattern flipped from el niño to la niña with no neutral winter in between. each line on this graph shows the evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the niño 3.4 region of the tropical pacific (the key enso monitoring region) through the switch. many, but not all, of the strongest el niños (red lines) evolved into strong la niñas. noaa climate.gov image, based on analysis by michelle l'heureux. first things first, let’s acknowledge that there have only been 10 times in the historical record where enso flipped from el niño into la niña within a year. that’s not enough examples to draw any solid conclusions from. still, it’s interesting to look at what we have and speculate as to what it might mean, so that’s all i am doing here. each line on the graph above represents a year in which the tropical pacific shifted from el niño to la niña with no neutral winter in between. the lines are colored based on the strength of the el niño: red for strong events (peak niño 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies above 1.5 ˚c, or 2.7 ˚f), orange for moderate events (peak anomaly between 1 and 1.5 ˚c, or 1.8 2.7 ˚f), and pink for weak events (peak anomaly less than 1 ˚c, or 1.8 ˚f). the relationship between the strength of the el niño and the strength of the subsequent la niña is kinda messy. it’s unlikely, but not impossible, for weak and moderate el niños to lead to a strong la niña (niño 3.4 temperature anomaly of more than 1.5 ˚c below average). only one of the pink and orange lines gets below that threshold. meanwhile, 4 of the 6 strong el niños do evolve into strong la niñas. but before we put too much stock in that pattern, we should note that the strongest el niño of all (top red line at the left hand side of the graph) wound up developing into the weakest la niña (3). so…yeah. it’s complicated. the likely strength of the upcoming la niña will become clearer the closer we get, and you’ll hear more about that in coming posts. of course, it’s also important to remember that the strength of a given el niño or la niña isn’t a good predictor of the strength of the temperature or precipitation impacts in a particular place. stronger events do make it more likely that places prone to be influenced by el niño or la niña will experience some level of their typical impacts, but they don’t necessarily lead to stronger impacts. in other words, even a moderate or weak la niña can have a strong impact on a given place. so it’s important to pay attention to what we already know, which is that odds are very high (85% chance) that this winter will feature la niña. if you’d like to know more about what a la niña winter might mean for your part of the world, here are some great places to start. hi. have you contemplated using the roni data to measure the equatorial temperatures? submitted by luis martinez romero on thu, 06/13/2024   14:38 i'm impressed! not many people are familiar with relative oni (roni) which came out of that work that rebecca mentioned in footnote #3. for the last several years, cpc has monitored roni on the side and it is located here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/roni.ascii.txt as you can see, the roni is 0.1c for mam 2024, which is considerably different from the 0.7c value in the traditional oni. however, noaa's official alert system is based on the traditional nino3.4/oni values, so at this point, we follow the traditional indices. submitted by michelle.lheureux on fri, 06/14/2024   08:14 in reply to the roni data. by luis martinez romero i'm searching information to be prepared for this winter. we live in northern california, lake county next to the largest natural fishing/resort lake in california our roads are not the best because the county does not spend the money it was given during covid 19 on our public roads and fix our thousands and thousands of pot holes that we have in this county they are spending it on the enhancement of parks which they have already have worked on. i'm concerned about our automobiles and having to continuously repair and replace windshields, tires rods and many other things on our cars and if we're going to have heavy rains i would like to be prepared to stock up and not travel as much! submitted by carmen a griffith on sat, 09/21/2024   21:42 in reply to the roni data. by luis martinez romero i would add the exceptional 2023 forest fire season in canada as an el nino effect. that said, i would crawl back a little further into the extended la nina that preceded it. british columbia and the canadian west are now in a third year of drought that appears, (in a few areas), to be abating. i would add the current heat dome in the western u.s. is a lingering el nino effect. great job, by the way. your forecasting has been spot on and the blog has the benefit of being a great teaching tool. have a cookie! submitted by dave on thu, 06/13/2024   19:15 good one. because el nino favors a more southward shifted jet stream you may very well be right! i have not seen a formal attribution, which would probably also consider the contribution from the warmer temperatures we tend to see these days (e.g. climate change). thanks so much for the compliments! submitted by michelle.lheureux on fri, 06/14/2024   08:19 in reply to effects of el nino by dave i read your article every day. i am a student of geography. i feel very happy. i thank you for this because it gives me knowledge. submitted by mukesh kumar on fri, 06/14/2024   00:19 really appreciate it! submitted by michelle.lheureux on fri, 06/14/2024   08:20 in reply to geography by mukesh kumar i don't quite understand how an el nino formed last year under a negative pacific decadal oscillation ? we didn't have any kind of winter weather here in the southeast ( kentucky,) and usually we have a colder, snowier winter in past enso / el nino events. how could we be entering enso / neutral when the current pdo is a negative 2.97 ? that's enso / la nina right ? i looked up the pdo readings, and found that the last enso / neutral reading 0.00 was december 2019. with enso / la nina a sure bet for this fall and winter, and it will be reacting with the atmosphere, because it's forming on a negative pdo. here in kentucky we will most likely experience another snowless winter. a longtime ago ( 1917   18 ) we were in an la nina year and recorded a very cold and snowy winter. the records showed that this happen. please explain. adding, the last cold and snowy winter here in kentucky was in 2015  16. under an enso / el nino with a positive pdo. thank you, stephen s. submitted by stephen s. on fri, 06/14/2024   12:27 hi   we are favoring la nina with a peak probability of 85% so still not 100% (some would consider that a sure bet). enso is based on coupled physics that happen within the tropical pacific ocean, so we primarily focus on the tropics. the pdo is interesting insofar as it may feedback on the topics, but that effect is considered small on seasonal timescales and more relevant to decadal averages. submitted by michelle.lheureux on fri, 06/14/2024   13:22 in reply to great educational article, but... by stephen s. hola me gustaría saber cómo analizar los datos que se tienen respeto al impacto de fenómeno de la niña en perú. saludos, espero tu respuesta y apoyo submitted by pedro augusto … on tue, 07/02/2024   16:17 in reply to hi   we are favoring la nina… by michelle.lheureux hola   peru's igp has a lot of great resources on enso in peru: https://met.igp.gob.pe/ submitted by emily.becker on mon, 07/08/2024   11:12 in reply to enso by pedro augusto … when can we say we are through the spring predictability barrier? i have been following the ssts plots the since early may. the trend has been for weaker la nina temps thus for. the latest nmme nino 3.4 plot for june seems to moving closer to the iri/cpc blended model. the nmme ensemble mean had peak temps below  1. the last run that came out a couple of days ago has la nina peaking above  1 or a weak event. submitted by bob g on fri, 06/14/2024   14:58 hi   good question. there is no one month where all of the sudden the accuracy gets considerably better, but generally the biggest rate of change is april may june, so there is an argument that we're over the hump, so to speak. with that said, the accuracy of our forecasts will increase the closer we get to the season that we are forecasting. so every month helps with the fine tuning. you're right that the forecasted intensity is not as strong as it was in previous months. our latest enso strength forecast reflects those changes (this updates once a month w/ the discussion). submitted by michelle.lheureux on fri, 06/14/2024   15:56 in reply to la nina strength by bob g thanks michelle! submitted by bob g on fri, 06/14/2024   16:30 in reply to hi   good question. there… by michelle.lheureux la niña is happening thank god i hope wisconsin get a snow and cold winter no more el niño. el niño is noting but mean strong la niña is better for snow than weak la niña i don’t want this la niña weak. submitted by jesse filbrandt on sat, 06/15/2024   14:45 the la nina is trending toward a weak event, not a strong one. submitted by bob g on thu, 06/20/2024   12:25 in reply to la niña is happening i hope so by jesse filbrandt it would be great if you in the forecasting world could but your attention on mexico for a bit because we really get so little analysis and prediction down here. i live in the altiplano in mexico which is the higher drier region in the north and center of the country and very often it seems that el niño and la niña both bring us even less rain, but of course it is not certain. still we seem to do best with a neutral period. we've been in severe drought for years so i was hoping for neutral but alas, we are going to get a niña. anyway if any of you could focus on this region and try to create some models to show how enso and climate change are impacting it would be really helpful. submitted by vc on sun, 06/16/2024   10:24 you may be interested in this univ of miami webpage with nmme forecasts of temperature and precipitation. this will take in account enso information and other factors that determine climate impacts over mexico. submitted by michelle.lheureux on mon, 06/17/2024   09:07 in reply to mexico by vc i'm 66 years old and have lived in texas and louisiana most of my life. summer 2023 was the hottest summer i've ever experienced. el nino vs la nina is too complicated for me to decipher, but i think el nino was definitely the cause. submitted by renee thompson on tue, 06/18/2024   10:45 well...based on past episodes, el niño has a small and not very reliable cooling influence on summer temps in the contiguous u.s. it tends to have a bigger and more consistent impact on winter temperature and precipitation. we know that one reason we are seeing increasingly frequent occurrences of record heat in the u.s. is long term global warming. averaged across texas, summer temperatures have warmed by a tenth of a degree each decade since 1895, mostly due to warming nighttime temperatures. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate at a glance/statewi… scientists would have to do a kind of scientific study called an extreme event attribution in order to understand how much el niño or other kinds of natural variability also contributed to any specific year's record heat. submitted by rebecca.lindsey on fri, 06/21/2024   13:48 in reply to 2023 summer by renee thompson the flip from a 3 year la nina, to 1 year el nino, then quickly back to la nina is really interesting. it seems there isn't symmetry between the 2 phases. would it be accurate to say enso processes are similar to the process of a volcano gathering molten magma before eruption? as well, there have been numerous explanations for the enso cycles (trade winds being the huge factor) but one of the more recent parsimonious explanations is volcano like as it states: "think of the tropical pacific as if it is a battery storing a charge, and the charge is thermal radiation coming in from the sun. every cool la nina phase is like a battery gathering and storing a charge from the sun, while every el nino phase is like a battery discharging its thermal store." this seems logical and to the point, without getting into trade winds and other complicated dynamic atmospheric processes. but is the above description accurate? the above description does help differentiate enso as a standard atmospheric process vs. being a climate change process, which seems to be a popular misguided view. submitted by barry s. on wed, 06/19/2024   13:30 the idea that during la niña the tropical pacific is storing energy  "charging like a battery"  and during el niño it is discharging energy seems like a reasonable analogy for the result of the ocean and atmosphere processes that drive the enso pattern phenomenon. but climate scientists aren't just interested in the result; they want to understand why and how things happen in the climate system. you say a battery analogy allows us to dispense with all those messy and "complicated atmospheric dynamic processes." but a simple battery analogy would provide no explanation for all the parts of the system that we can easily observe. it doesn't explain why "the battery" is located in the western tropical pacific and not the whole pacific. it doesn't explain why the battery would ever discharge as opposed to endlessly accumulating energy. it doesn't explain why there is no equally strong battery in the tropical atlantic ocean or the tropical indian ocean, etc. in other words, if we ever want to understand why and how the battery discharges  which we do, since it has such a strong influence on seasonal climate we have to dig into the complicated stuff. as the quote usually attributed to albert einstein says, "scientific explanations [theories] should be as simple as possible...but not simpler." submitted by rebecca.lindsey on fri, 06/21/2024   14:10 in reply to basic question about enso phases by barry s. thank you for this! there has been much made of la nina and el nino as "drivers of climate extremes" in the news since the really big 1997 98 el nino event. yet the news rarely explains what the 2 phases mean or involve, beyond being shorter term 'cool weather' and 'warm weather' climate phases. the battery charge and discharge analogy seemed quite apt and very easy for any lay person to grasp, if not a little too conveniently simple. as far as 'heat discharge' is concerned, a simple volcano analogy makes some sense. but then that begs the question, which might not strictly be an enso phase question, whether the equilibrium between cool ninas and warm ninos is shifting, as we've seen warmer oceans even through the recent "moderately strong" 2020 23 la nina. (after all, hearing stories of batteries overheating with analogies of ...suns going supernova can't be too far off at this rate... i digress) surely we need more understanding of those dynamic, complicated atmospheric processes. a simple theory would be wonderful   there is much to comb through to, to begin to get close to having an idea of what's going on for the average lay person. but it is 100% worth it for those who want to know. submitted by barry s. on sun, 06/23/2024   01:20 in reply to re: basic questions by rebecca.lindsey i have had great interest in the effects of el nino as they relate to the state i live in, hawaii. i use this information to understand how our weather will be affected. i appreciate all the info that appears on this site. submitted by michael moffett on thu, 09/19/2024   16:34 in reply to re: basic questions by rebecca.lindsey i m in wyoming people here no nothing about la niña or el nina, i love to read everything about your site keeps me on my toes about our weather, people always expect a snowy winter unlike last year i told many about el nina they had no idea what i was talking about, i just wish people would read. thanks for educating me. i will keep reading and learning. i believe your never to old to learn something new. and it looks like we are in for a snowy winter here in wyoming, yet they are saying it will be mild, and our fall will be super hot.they need to read!!! submitted by sandy on wed, 06/19/2024   17:35 i live almost at the tip of southwest india, in kerela. we dread el nino, with good reason. we have 'normal' hot season from april to may. this year, 2024, the most unbearable high temperatures started february 20th until mid may. i have lived here since 1992 and i can't remember such a long stretch of high heat. it was in the mid nineties with 81 percent dewpoint every day with no rain! and we do not have air conditioning! we have many elderly people where i live and 4 or 5 died during that time. during the 3 year of la nina we were in bliss. the weather was unnaturally comfortable! the difference between el nino and la nina are like day and night for us. we are praying for another long la nina! submitted by sundari on thu, 06/20/2024   02:26 i am so sorry to hear that people in your community died from heat exposure. your comment is a good reminder for those of us outside the tropics that for those actually in the tropics, the impacts of el niño and la niña are more consistent and potentially severe than they are in the subtropics and mid latitudes, where the influence of el niño and la niña is weaker. that's a big part of the reason experts work so hard to understand and predict enso! submitted by rebecca.lindsey on fri, 06/21/2024   14:20 in reply to el nino by sundari latest nmme 3.4 plot has come down with the strength of this la nina. a borderline weak event now. submitted by bob g on thu, 06/20/2024   12:24 but remember: the oni value is only the ocean part of enso. whether la liña has actually begun or how strong it might be has to take into consideration whether the atmosphere is acting like la niña, too! submitted by rebecca.lindsey on fri, 06/21/2024   14:23 in reply to la nina by bob g i live in the pacific northwest us, if we get a strong la nina by the fall does it mean we'll have a lot of precipitation and snow during winter? thanks! submitted by armando on fri, 06/21/2024   05:05 depending on what part of the pac nw you mean, the influence of la niña on precipitation can be pretty strong. you can look back at these maps to see the patterns during 20 of the strongest la niñas on record. that's total precip, though, not distinguishing rain from snow. sometime before winter, we will probably do a la niña version of this post, so stay tuned. you also have to keep in mind that long term global warming is reducing snowfall in many u.s. locations; a percentage of winter precip that would have historically fallen as snow now falls as rain. so, it's possible that even if la niña did historically tend to produce snowier winters in a particular place, it's impact may be more muted in today's warming climate. (sorry to be a downer, if you are a snow fan!) submitted by rebecca.lindsey on fri, 06/21/2024   14:42 in reply to la nina by armando i've been studying the sea temperatures for the past 18 months surrounding the west of scotland and can see the massive jump in our recorded daily averages last year. we usually see a dip in february and get a period of colder temperatures but did not get this at all and instead of increasing we have seen the smallest temperature increase between now (20th june) and may that we have seen in years (the lowest ever in the data i am reviewing which is going back to 2013) the el nino doesn't affect us directly here in scotland but it we have definitely seen the impact of it. i'm curious to see how this year will pan out as we are currently at a daily average of 2 degrees behind this time last year. thanks for this information it is extremely interesting. submitted by dale on fri, 06/21/2024   10:05 do you think la niña will bring more settled weather this year into next for the west of scotland? submitted by andrea on sun, 06/23/2024   16:13 in reply to north atlantic temps by dale it's hard to say. the impact from la nina on climate conditions in scotland can be hard to parse out. normally other factors play a larger role submitted by tom.diliberto on tue, 06/25/2024   10:46 in reply to west of scotland by andrea 1) for the 6 strong el niños in the graph, how many of them were considered cp (modokai) el niños vs ep (classic) el niños, and what was the resulting strength of the la niña? i believe the 2015 2016 el niño might have been modokai but not sure. 2) with a multi year la niña flipping to strong el niño flipping back (presumably) to la niña, are you seeing many atmospheric variables that are following the trends in the 2 possibly similar cases in the data (1970 74 and 2007 2011)? both of those subsequent la nina’s were strong and contained high impact weather events. submitted by phil on sun, 06/23/2024   08:01 hi phil, michelle wrote a really nice article describing the continuum that el nino events can occur along. one key point in her article was that weaker el niños tend to be closer to the central pacific types and stronger el niños tend to be closer to eastern pacific types. so i wouldn't necessarily classify the 6 strong events as cp events (with the caveat that, as i noted, there is nuance here) as for variables following the trends of the past two events, it's hard to compare when the sample size is n=2. the other difficulty is the impact the above average ocean temperatures worldwide might be having as well. submitted by tom.diliberto on tue, 06/25/2024   10:53 in reply to couple of questions for graph of el nino to la nina by phil this was an interesting study done at one of the univ of californias. the study called fy15/16 a mixed event. cp and ep. i wonder what the folks here think about it. `https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016gl071515 submitted by bob g on wed, 06/26/2024   13:32 in reply to couple of questions for graph of el nino to la nina by phil hi bob, thanks for sending that interesting paper. the enso prediction team doesn't tend to forecast for cp/ep, nor classify events retrospectively, although we do have some discussion of enso flavors here on the blog. the difference in sst maxima locations between the two events is likely part of the difference between the southwest precip outcomes, but there are a lot of things going on in any one winter that contribute to variability. for more reading, check out the bams paper (led by michelle) on observing and predicting the 2015/16 event and this paper about the variability in us precip during el nino events. submitted by emily.becker on tue, 07/02/2024   08:56 in reply to el nino cp vs ep by bob g thanks emily! submitted by bob g on tue, 07/02/2024   15:52 in reply to hi bob, thanks for sending… by emily.becker how does this relate to poland? similar to scotland, poland is also experiencing climate change and temperature anomalies. in recent years, we have seen an increase in average temperatures, especially noticeable in the summer season. although poland is not directly affected by el nino, its global effects can influence our weather patterns. in recent years, we have recorded unusually warm winters and summers, which may indicate similar trends to those observed in scotland. if the trend of warming seas continues, it could impact marine ecosystems in both poland and scotland, as well as our weather patterns. it is important to conduct further research and observations to better understand these changes and their potential consequences. thank you for sharing your insights. submitted by dariusz pawlak on tue, 06/25/2024   07:24 always a very informative read! thanks a lot! on the impacts of el niño, let's not forget the devastating drought in southern africa   which may lead to widespread hunger in the coming months. i was wondering about your views regarding the world weather attribution report stating that the may flooding events in east africa had no relation to el niño: what's your analysis? final question: can we say that the strength of hurrican beryl is an early sign of the upcoming la niña? greetings from nairobi. priscilla submitted by priscilla   of… on wed, 07/03/2024   08:16 hi priscilla   thanks for the report from nairobi. i haven't seen that report, but i can confirm that el nino likely had little to do with flooding in east africa in may. the el nino impact in eastern africa is strongest over the october january period. regarding beryl, it's really difficult to attribute the strength of a single storm, and enso is currently neutral and so does not have much influence on global atmospheric circulation. submitted by emily.becker on mon, 07/08/2024   11:04 in reply to impacts of el niño / la niña by priscilla   of… july nmme continues the trend of a weakening la nina submitted by anonymous on mon, 07/08/2024   00:08 we have seen and extreme low river flow in the last 6 years. with two niñas in a row and a short el niño i have never in my life seen this great river with less water for a long time like this. is this the new normal due to weather/soil/atmosphere variations? is the atmospheric river which flows from the north shifted to rio grande do sur instead of parana its rainfall patern? only time will give us the answer.. hope la niña drought impact will not be severe. we are having this year colder winter than average. thank you four your posts big fan of your work.. submitted by javier ferres on mon, 07/08/2024   13:27 that's a good question, and i don't have an immediate answer. the frequent la ninas in recent years may be contributing to the dryness in the region, but there are other possible contributing factors like soil moisture variations, chaotic weather variability, and climate change, as you mention. i am now working with an undergraduate intern who is investigating projected changes in atmospheric rivers over south america, so i hope to gain a better understanding of the possible role of climate change in the near future. submitted by nathaniel.johnson on mon, 07/08/2024   15:11 in reply to la niña impact in parana river basin by javier ferres when is elnino likely to end in zambia 🇿🇲? submitted by adrian chiyonga on sun, 07/14/2024   00:40 el nino is a global phenomenon, so when it is declared to have ended, it has ended for all regions, including zambia. i am guessing that you may be wondering about the effects on the severe drought over that region. i am not sure when we can expect significant relief (please check relevant resources like this), but we can be confident that el nino will not be a significant cause of prolonging the severe drought further. submitted by nathaniel.johnson on sun, 07/14/2024   21:25 in reply to elnino by adrian chiyonga

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if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to noaa, cpc, or climate.gov. la niña conditions emerged in the tropical pacific in december. there’s a 59% chance la niña will persist through february april, followed by a 60% chance of neutral conditions in march may. read on for the recent observations that led us to declare the (long awaited) onset of la niña and lots of details for current and potential upcoming conditions. a quick briefing, if you’re just joining us la niña is one phase of the el niño/southern oscillation (enso), a pattern of sea surface temperature and atmospheric changes in the tropical pacific ocean. la niña’s signature is cooler than average surface water in the east central equatorial pacific, while its counterpart, el niño, features warmer than average surface water. the atmospheric circulation over the tropical pacific, called the walker circulation, exhibits characteristic changes during la niña and el niño, so we call enso a “coupled” ocean atmosphere system. enso is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning it lasts for several months in a row. the atmospheric changes of enso are communicated all around the world, changing temperature and rain/snow patterns in known ways. ok! we’ve been expecting la niña to show up since last spring. while she’s dragged her heels, all the pieces came together this past month. the tropical pacific sea surface temperature loitered in enso neutral since april 2024, with our primary enso monitoring index, the niño 3.4 index, within 0.5 °c of the long term average. in december, however, the niño 3.4 index was  0.6 °c, according to the ersstv5, our most reliable long term sea surface temperature dataset. 2 year history of sea surface temperatures in the niño 3.4 region of the tropical pacific for all la nina events since 1950 (gray lines) and the recent (2024 25) event (purple line). after staying in neutral for most of 2024, the niño 3.4 index passed the la niña threshold in december 2024. graph by emily becker based on monthly niño 3.4 index data from cpc using ersstv5. with the niño 3.4 index exceeding the la niña threshold of  0.5 °c, we can move on to the second box on our flowchart do we think the niño 3.4 index is going to stay in la niña territory for the next several seasons? (“seasons” here means any 3 month average period.) the consensus among our computer climate models is yes. also, there is a substantial amount of cooler than average water under the surface of the tropical pacific, which will provide a source for the surface over the next few months. so, we’re on to the third box, which has actually been checked for a while now (more on that later). the atmosphere has been looking la niña ish for months, with stronger than average trade winds, more clouds and rain over indonesia, and drier conditions over the central pacific all hallmarks of an amped up walker circulation. in december, the equatorial southern oscillation index (eqsoi), which measures the difference in surface pressure between the western and eastern pacific, was 1.5 (positive values indicate a stronger walker circulation). in fact, this is the 5th strongest december eqsoi in the historical record. drumroll… la niña conditions have developed. this animation shows weekly sea surface temperatures in the pacific ocean compared to average from october 14 2024 january 5 2025. orange and red areas were warmer than average; blue areas were cooler than average. the sea surface temperature in the key enso monitoring region of the tropical pacific (outlined with black box) was slightly below average for many weeks, but the cooler than average region has strengthened lately. noaa climate.gov animation, based on coral reef watch data and maps from noaa view. view the full size version in its own browser window. there are a lot of different tidbits i want to tell you about this month, so let’s go q&a style. there’s a reason our flowchart says “the next several seasons” instead of providing a specific number: we can make predictions, but it’s impossible to know ahead of time exactly how long la niña conditions will last. to be categorized as a la niña event in our historical record, the three month average niño 3.4 index (the oceanic niño index) needs to stay at least 0.5 °c below average for at least five consecutive, overlapping seasons. current odds are 60% that the march may oceanic niño index will be neutral, which would make this event last fewer than five. that’s not to say it’s impossible for this la niña to last longer, of course nature is always full of surprises! there is a ~40% chance for la niña to persist into march may 2025. it’s very likely this la niña will be weak, with the niño 3.4 index unlikely to reach  1.0 °c for a season. this is based on computer model guidance and how late in the year la niña conditions emerged. enso events peak in the northern hemisphere winter, and there’s just not a lot of time for la niña to strengthen. sure can, although a weak la niña tends to have a weaker influence over temperature and precipitation patterns. the short answer to this is “we don’t yet know.” the emergence of la niña like atmospheric conditions before substantial tropical pacific ocean surface cooling was unusual, though. the global oceans have been running much, much warmer than average for more than a year, which might have had a hand in la niña’s delay. when we calculate the niño 3.4 index but account for the temperature of the tropical oceans (the “relative niño 3.4 index”) we get an index that’s been in la niña territory for months. only this past year or so has the difference between the traditional and relative niño 3.4 indexes been so large, and we’re still researching this new measurement and all the implications for enso development and impacts in a warmer world. la niña affects global climate primarily through atmospheric changes, and since the tropical atmosphere has been looking like la niña for a while, this is a reasonable question! the global climate is incredibly complicated, and even a big factor like enso is only one player. other climate patterns, climate change trends, and random variability can have a strong influence on overall seasonal patterns. that said, it’s interesting that the october december 2024 temperature and rain/snow patterns over the u.s. resemble the expected patterns from previous la niña events. see the october december la nina temperature and rain/snow maps, and here’s the general page if you would like to poke around. map showing the difference from average precipitation during october december 2024. green areas received more rain and snow than the 1991 2020 average, while brown areas received less. the pattern here resembles what we would expect in october december during la niña. map by climate.gov from cpc data. temperature has a strong influence from climate trends, and the october december 2024 temperature pattern over the u.s. is clearly dominated by more warmth. map showing the difference from average temperature during october december 2024. orange areas were warmer than the 1991 2020 average. the pattern here resembles what we would expect in october december from combined climate trends and la nina. map by climate.gov from cpc data. thanks for asking! speaking of la niña impacts, you might recall there’s a link between la niña and active atlantic hurricane seasons. in brief, la niña reduces vertical wind shear the difference between near surface winds and upper level winds and makes it easier for hurricanes to grow. interestingly, the august october 2024 wind shear in the atlantic main development region (an area of the atlantic where hurricanes tend to develop) was the weakest since 1950 (h/t noaa’s matt rosencrans). we can’t say how much of it was related to la niña, but given the relative niño 3.4 index has been in la niña territory for a while now, it’s an interesting situation that bears more research. as this unusual la niña progresses, we’ll be here to keep you updated on all things enso! i have published these papers:1) further fgge forecasts for amazon basin rainfall the authors are julio buchmann, jan paegle, lawrence buja and robert e. dickinson at monthly weather review in 1989 2) the dynamical basis of regional motion fields sourrounding located tropical heating the authors are julio buchmann, lawrence e. buja, julia nogues paegle and jan paegle at the journal of climate in 1995. submitted by julio buchmann on thu, 01/09/2025   12:37 unfortunately for california and the brutal wildfires we are experiencing, la does look like it has affected our winter pattern and january precipitation looks bleak right now. i am already starting to think about enso next year. too long a lead time with the models for any reliance. but if we went with the cfsv2 at this time we are looking at enso neutral year next year. i can't remember the last time we've had one of those and haven't had many over the last decade. just think about the contributors here for once talking about how much enso is not going to factor into weather. submitted by bob g on thu, 01/09/2025   12:47 it has been a while, for sure. 2019 2020 was a neutral winter, but that's the only one we've had since the enso blog started in 2014! submitted by emily.becker on thu, 01/09/2025   16:15 in reply to la nina by bob g very well written, thanks!! submitted by brian c. on thu, 01/09/2025   13:22 please see the end date of this *** 2024**** ^^^^ shouldn't that be 2025? submitted by megann on thu, 01/09/2025   13:25 fixed! thanks. submitted by emily.becker on thu, 01/09/2025   16:11 in reply to date error by megann the oni is not over 0.5. i believe this is more a la niña modoki. i don’t expect to have cooling right off the coast of south america. we have a fast warming with 26c isotherm around 10 15m depth. submitted by maria del pila… on thu, 01/09/2025   13:31 you're right, the most recent oni, october december, is only  0.4 c. we think it's very likely that the november january oni will pass the la nina threshold. submitted by emily.becker on thu, 01/09/2025   16:17 in reply to la niña modoki by maria del pila… nothing resembles any nina. 100% of the tropical countries are smashing all heat records set during 2023/2024, 100% ! including all oceania and south america and including ecuador coast (guayaquil dec 2024 much warmer than dec 2023 and all records smashed over and over again) and all central america, the exact opposite of what we would expect ina nina or even a transition. you fail to understand teh causes because you clearly don't have an idea on what it's been going on with the current drop of the low clouds in the tropics and the reduction of the albedo. climatology is not for you. leave it to the real experts and not politicians who pretends to understand it. submitted by anonymous on thu, 01/09/2025   13:59 i think the tropics are surely going to be warmer than climatology due to global warming. for la niña, i think what matters is whether the eastern equatorial pacific is relatively colder than the rest of the tropical oceans. submitted by anonymous on fri, 01/10/2025   04:48 in reply to nothing resembles any nina… by anonymous 1. for what it's worth, the people who write this blog are some of the world's foremost experts on enso. and, every time one of them writes a post, they make it very clear just how knowledgeable they are about this. 2. unlike politicians, who regularly speak in terms of certainties (and who will sometimes even double down when they are wrong, or who will insist that the experts are wrong and that they are right), the people who write these blog posts readily acknowledge what they don't know, while saying what they need more information on and what they are currently researching. 3. you made some assertions in your post, including how large parts of latin america are setting heat records, a drop in low clouds in the tropics, and a reduction in albedo. so, what evidence backs them up? and, what other explanations (aside from the current state of enso) are possible for the phenomena you described? submitted by guest on sat, 01/11/2025   14:31 in reply to nothing resembles any nina… by anonymous worst winter for snow that we have seen in years for arizona , speaking as president of northern az snowmobile club...... last year was awesome and has been for a number of years now.... especially the white mountains of az...... this year awful... nothing since the pna was neg in nov 2024 submitted by charles palmer ii on fri, 01/17/2025   15:56 in reply to nothing resembles any nina… by anonymous i understand where you're coming from. as this blog post points out, arizona snowfall tends to suffer during la nina. interestingly, the pna index has been mainly positive since the start of december, which is not typical of la nina, but obviously that hasn't helped with the rain and snow over the southwestern u.s. submitted by nathaniel.johnson on fri, 01/17/2025   16:28 in reply to no snow by charles palmer ii everything below the upper 1/3 of california is below normal with abnormally dry conditions. this past storm just increased the variance. very nina like submitted by bob g on wed, 02/05/2025   15:03 in reply to i hear you by nathaniel.johnson what does this mean for likely cyclone formation in the western pacific? does it lower the chances of them forming and curtail their potential strength? asking as we are sail towards the solomans... thanks si submitted by si thompson on thu, 01/09/2025   18:38 here in louisiana we have what we call wicked weather...as far as el nina in certain parts we only getting rain no freezing.just cold which i love but messy muddy and rainy so for us here we do not get much winter or snow maybe way up by shreveport but around winnsboro not so much 9 x out of 10 submitted by sandi easterling on thu, 01/09/2025   23:53 i always thought that a la niña winter meant a lot of snow for idaho and montana. so far, it is missing us here in hamilton mt. i'm not sure what is going on, but it's confusing. submitted by nicole on sat, 01/11/2025   01:22 in reply to el nina by sandi easterling there is a term the experts use here call variability. that means that the expected impacts from la nina are not going to occur 100% of the time. la nina increases the odds of certain impacts but there are times the opposite happens. la ninas usually result in dry years in california but every once in awhile result in a wet year. this is also a weaker rather than stronger event which means there is more uncertainty submitted by bob g on mon, 01/13/2025   12:46 in reply to la niña by nicole thanks, bob! submitted by nathaniel.johnson on tue, 01/14/2025   15:17 in reply to la nina by bob g thank you nathaniel for all the knowledge you and all the experts have brought to the blog and for answering all of our questions. submitted by bob g on tue, 01/14/2025   19:09 in reply to thanks, bob! by nathaniel.johnson the oni index at https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff… shows ond 2024 at  0.4°c. yes currently enso neutral conditions persist   earliest potential first la niña thresh hold expected january end. hope noaa has not changed the criteria for la nina ! submitted by ashok patel on fri, 01/10/2025   08:58 i like that you all are researching the relative nina. it must be something like looking for a moving target inside another moving target. a la nina "event" being different than a qualified, so to speak, "historically recorded event". do you look back and adjust your measurement requirements versus the correlated coupling of atmosphere during non qualified events? as looking back is always difficult for reducing biases, have you developed any real world predictive tests other than computer models? that sounds like a near impossibility to me but i never know. submitted by bailey on fri, 01/10/2025   11:12 until recently (just the past year), the traditional nino 3.4 and the relative nino 3.4 were nearly the same. last month, i showed some figures comparing the atmospheric coupling in previous observed events, but it would be interesting to examine the atmospheric response to the relative nino using initialized coupled models like the nmme. submitted by emily.becker on mon, 01/13/2025   10:51 in reply to relative nina by bailey i am just curious to know whether if there were situations where a la niña advisory was declared before, but not enough for a sufficient duration to officially be a la niña? the same could be said for el niño and an el niño advisory declaration as well. if it hasn't happened before, could this be a first? it's my understanding that the australian counterpart has not officially called a la niña even though most of the typical indicators have been met (needs to be  0.8°c in the niño3.4 sst for at least 3 months to become established). submitted by graig mellon on fri, 01/10/2025   14:42 i'm sure we've never been in the same situation, because nature is infinitely variable! however, the la nina of 2016 17 was pretty borderline when we declared it: https://www.climate.gov/news features/blogs/enso/november 2016 la ni%c3… submitted by emily.becker on mon, 01/13/2025   10:59 in reply to has this ever happened before? by graig mellon it sounds like you are studying this new relative niño index, to see how accurate it is compared to the current measures you use. whenever you get some answers, would you include them in one of your blog posts? submitted by matt on sat, 01/11/2025   14:18 thanks for your interest! we will definitely update our enso blog readers on any insights provided by relative ssts. submitted by michelle.lheureux on tue, 01/21/2025   08:53 in reply to relative niño by matt what can we expect this year in the tropical atlantic? did i really read right yesterday about a nina effect moving toward puerto rico? gracia submitted by sharon shields on sun, 01/12/2025   03:00 hello there, thank you for the informative piece   i have learnt alot more on how periods can be classified into la nina events, especially with the useful flowchart which helps us in understanding the train of though in classificaiton. could i just check, given that we have classified the current period as la nina, will it eventually be shown on the following cpc website: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff… that is a la nina event? according the methodology, "by historical standards, to be classified as a full fledged el niño or la niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons." therefore, will this event be reflected as a la nina event eventually in the historical records, if we move into an enso neutral before we see 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons? thank you once again! submitted by adam on tue, 01/14/2025   02:17 that's a good question, adam. given how late this event unfolded, it raises some doubt that we will reach the 5 season threshold. we will have to see, but if it doesn't reach 5 (say, if only ndj through fma are below  0.5c), then it will not show up as an event on the cpc website. it's also worth mentioning that event classification can change when the climatology base periods get updated every 5 years. currently we use the 1991 2020 base period to define oni, but soon that will change to 1996 2025, and so some of the recent oni values will shift slightly. sometimes those slight shifts can move an event in or out of the 5 season threshold. submitted by nathaniel.johnson on tue, 01/14/2025   15:29 in reply to will this be considered as a la nina event in the records? by adam yes, indeed there is a possibility of some of the seasonal onis could be revised towards la nina thresh hold, due to increase in the overall sst for 1996 2025. submitted by ashok patel on tue, 01/21/2025   07:35 in reply to that's a good question, adam… by nathaniel.johnson that's right... we have to remember the last 10 years of oni values in this table will be revised based on future (not yet known) data. one nice attribute of the relative sst index is that it doesn't depend on the chosen climatology (we just pick one climatology). submitted by michelle.lheureux on tue, 01/21/2025   08:55 in reply to 1996 2025 period revision of nino ssts by ashok patel i don't know if this is the result of the 'la nina' but i live south of pittsburgh, pa and this is the first year since 2015 that we have really had a winter. i have one coat i call a 'snow coat' which i seldom wear, but i use it constantly now and my wonderful snow boots, which i almost tucked away for good, are a daily aid in getting me to my car and through the snowy yard. although the snow is almost a rain/snow and, as yet, no large accumulation, it is quite a different winter than the last nine. i hope this isn't a trend. i was enjoying the more temperate winters. submitted by anita biers on thu, 01/16/2025   16:10 i understand where you're coming from, anita. i'm in central new jersey, which is a bit milder than interior pennsylvania on average, but i do not remember any particularly cold winters since 2014/15 (especially february 2015). so, this has been the coldest start to winter for this part of the country in recent memory. i would hesitate to blame la nina, however, as we generally do not see such a la nina temperature influence in this part of the country. it will be interesting to see how long this colder pattern persists and to diagnose the causes afterward, if it does. submitted by nathaniel.johnson on thu, 01/16/2025   20:22 in reply to cold weather by anita biers i am so angry that la niña supposed to be cold and snow instead i had a w arm december la niña is acting like el niño which is not ok . el niño is mean i rather have super la niña. i thought super la niña is better for snow than weak la niña submitted by jesse filbrandt on fri, 01/17/2025   17:15 we love la nina here in zimbabwe and southern africa. this brings our summer rains roughly nov to march april. dreadful drought last 2 years or do due to the el nino which persisted. long live la nina!!! submitted by rebecca in zimbabwe on sat, 01/18/2025   05:43 as a so cal resident for 71 years i distinctly remember the la niña of 1976/77. it was followed by el niños for both 78/79? submitted by anonymous on sat, 01/18/2025   16:35 you might mean 1975/76 which was followed by two weak el nino winters: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/oni_v5.php submitted by michelle.lheureux on tue, 01/21/2025   08:57 in reply to la nina by anonymous will this january be the hottest january ever record globally or will it warm enough to enter the top 5. submitted by jason todd on mon, 01/20/2025   02:12 the data will be in soon! submitted by michelle.lheureux on tue, 01/21/2025   08:58 in reply to hottest january ever? by jason todd does the la nina affect weather in the north atlantic and countries like ireland and france? thank you submitted by rose on mon, 01/20/2025   15:27 it's a good question and the short answer is that el nino/la nina does not impact northwest europe as much as it does in other locations. any possible connections tends to be through the stratospheric polar vortex. more on this from amy butler: https://www.climate.gov/news features/blogs/enso/el niño and stratospheric polar vortex. also check out the new ish climate.gov polar vortex blog which will keep you updated on all things polar vortex! submitted by michelle.lheureux on tue, 01/21/2025   09:00 in reply to ireland/europe by rose thinking about the city of angles. while not officially a la nina it sure looks like and burns like a la nina in la county. there was no winter rain to speak of and the santa ana winds picked up like it was late october. i understand that this does not meet the five season rubric but it really does look like everything typical of a la nina driven fire season. there is something of a back lash or whiplash with the very wet el ninos being followed a more typical la nina drought. could this be something novel (at least to me) of a specific microclimate causing "variability?" i also wonder about the upcoming hurricane season. i understand that this a very chaotic system and most if not all bets are off. maybe, sort of, perhaps a more vigorous hurricane season. more info later when the cracked crystal ball gives up more data?? submitted by james in san jose on wed, 01/29/2025   16:07 cracked crystal ball is spot on... i always say climate prediction is like looking through a cloudy crystal ball, but yours is pretty good! so i don't know about micro climate   the patterns we discuss on this blog are usually very large scale, but there is a lot of research and applications that works to downscale the large scale to localities. with that said, i can report, yes, the drier conditions experienced so far in southern ca are quite consistent with la nina (our most recent blog post discusses the typical pattern). we're betting nov jan season will hit our official la nina threshold of  0.5c or less (will receive that value next week). however, we are noticing that if we use a relative enso index (here) we probably would have declared this la nina sooner. this is a new index and it's something we are reviewing for the future. also, to your point about "whip lash" it is not uncommon for la nina events to follow big el nino events like we had in 2023 24 winter. in fact we expected it to be stronger and form earlier, but that clearly didn't happen. so there is probably some percent variability of wet to dry described by enso in this situation. but obviously fire weather is quite complex, a stew of different factors are involved, some local factors, and much more (than just enso) had to happen in order for these major fires to emerge. submitted by michelle.lheureux on thu, 01/30/2025   09:04 in reply to micro climate la nina by james in san jose submitted by anonymous on tue, 02/04/2025   17:55
supported by the noaa climate prediction center announced an end to the el niño climate phenomenon on thursday, and predicted that la niña could start as early as next month. by austyn gaffney el niño, the natural climate pattern linked to warmer conditions in the tropical pacific ocean, has ended, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration announced on thursday. the counterpart pattern known as la niña, defined by cooler equatorial sea surface temperatures, is expected to develop soon. a strong el niño has cycled through the atmosphere since last june, leading to a wetter than normal winter, especially in the southeast and in california, where a mind boggling 51 atmospheric rivers dumped rain and snow. now, a brief period of neutrality is upon us, but climate scientists predict that la niña could form as early as july, a likelihood that increases as the calendar flips closer to winter. while climate change remains the biggest factor in extreme weather events, experts say la niña could tip the scales toward an even more active hurricane season. that’s because, while el niño conditions can rip apart storms that develop in the atlantic basin, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are more likely to form under la niña. calm conditions produced by la niña combined with warm ocean temperatures will intensify the activity likely to occur during hurricane season. temperatures at the surface of the atlantic ocean have been increasing since 2016 and broke marine heat records last summer. the noaa climate prediction center has forecast that up to 13 hurricanes could develop in the atlantic ocean this year, at least four of which could be major. matthew rosencrans, noaa’s lead meteorologist for the seasonal hurricane outlook, said the five years that most closely resembled this year’s forecast had all occurred in the last two decades. years of particular note include 2005, when hurricane katrina devastated new orleans; 2017, when hurricanes cost the united states more than $300 billion in damages; and 2020, which saw 11 out of 30 named storms pummel the coastline of the united states.

 noaa’s climate prediction center (cpc) released its official winter outlook for 2024 25 on thursday, and it looks as though a weak la nina will emerge and have an impact on weather patterns this winter. fox weather meteorologist bob van dillen breaks down the latest from the report. for months, the world has heard about the possibility of entering a la niña phase, with some climate models even predicting it would occur during the previous spring. despite these outlooks, water temperatures in parts of the pacific have not reached the threshold required for la niña, even though atmospheric conditions are showing characteristics typical of the pattern. so, what’s going on? why are parts of the world experiencing la niña related events without an official la niña in place? the answer appears to be complicated and may possibly influenced by climate change. la niña is considered the cool phase of the el niño southern oscillation (enso) and is characterized by lower than average sea surface temperatures, with anomalies of at least  0.5 degrees celsius over parts of the central and eastern pacific.