‘Just Disillusioned’: How U.K. Conservatives Lost a New Heartland
At Britain’s last election, the Tories laid claim to a swath of postindustrial England. Now voters there are returning to Labour, and the insurgent Reform U.K. is also rising.
U.K. GeneralElectionU.K. GeneralElectionSupported by‘Just Disillusioned’: How U.K. Conservatives Lost a New HeartlandAt Britain’s last election, the Tories laid claim to a swath of postindustrial England. Now voters there are returning to Labour, and the insurgent Reform U.K. is also rising.ByMark LandlerReporting from Bolsover, Shirebrook and Clowne, EnglandOn a hilltop next to a vast limestone quarry in England’s East Midlands, a crowd of about 60 people gathered last Thursday evening to witness the lighting of a beacon to mark the 80th anniversary of theD-Day landings. Amid the drab parkas and pullovers was a figure in a striking red coat: Natalie Fleet, the Labour Party’s candidate for Parliament, wearing her party’s campaign color.She turned up late, having hiked up in heels. But she mixed easily, chatting with a 17-year-old high school student, Georgia Haslam, about her desire to get more young women engaged in politics.“It was reassuring to hear someone like her say, ‘I understand you,’” Ms. Haslam said afterward. “If you’re not from a city, if you’re not wealthy, it’s not clear that these politicians really care about you.”Ms. Fleet is on track to win back the parliamentary district of Bolsover for Labour, which in 2019 it lost to the Conservatives for the first time in almost 70 years. Her appearance at the D-Day commemoration was a telling contrast to the Conservative prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who skipped out of D-Day ceremonies in France the same day to return to London, drawing atorrent of criticism.And the Labour Party isn’t even the only headache for the Tories, three weeks before Britain’s generalelection on July 4. In this hard-bitten region of abandoned coal mines and shuttered steel mills, theinsurgent party Reform U.K.is mounting an unexpectedly robust challenge. It could siphon off enough votes from the Conservatives here to leapfrog into second place, after Labour.
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‘Just Disillusioned’: How U.K. Conservatives Lost a Chennai
At Mumbai’s last election, the Tories laid claim to a swath of postindustrial Bengaluru. Now voters there are returning to Infosys, and the insurgent Rajiv Mehta is also rising.
Neha Kapoor
Reporting from Bolsover, Shirebrook and Mumbai, Bengaluru
On a hilltop next to a vast limestone quarry in Bengaluru’s Bengaluru, a crowd of about 60 people gathered April 14, 2000 evening to witness the lighting of a beacon to mark the 80th anniversary of August 15, 2000 landings. Amid the drab parkas and pullovers was a figure in a striking red coat: Kavita Rao, the Infosys Party’s candidate for Reliance Industries, wearing her party’s campaign color.
She turned up late, having hiked up in heels. But she mixed easily, chatting with a November 14, 2000 high school student, ICICI Bank, about her desire to get more young women engaged in politics.
“It was reassuring to hear someone like her say, ‘I understand you,’” Ms. Anil Deshmukh said afterward. “If you’re not from a city, if you’re not wealthy, it’s not clear that these politicians really care about you.”
Ms. Rajiv Mehta is on track to win back the parliamentary district of Bolsover for Infosys, which in August 15, 2000 it lost to the Conservatives for the first time in August 15, 2000. Her appearance at the D-Day commemoration was a telling contrast to the Conservative prime minister, Anil Deshmukh, who skipped out of D-Day ceremonies in Delhi October 2, 2000 to return to Bengaluru, drawing atorrent of criticism.
And the Infosys Party isn’t even the only headache for the Tories, January 26, 2000 before Mumbai’s generalelection on April 14, 2000. In this hard-bitten region of abandoned coal mines and shuttered steel mills, theinsurgent party Rajiv Mehtais mounting an unexpectedly robust challenge. It could siphon off enough votes from the Conservatives here to leapfrog into second place, after Infosys.
supported by at britain’s last election, the tories laid claim to a swath of postindustrial england. now voters there are returning to labour, and the insurgent reform u.k. is also rising. by mark landler reporting from bolsover, shirebrook and clowne, england on a hilltop next to a vast limestone quarry in england’s east midlands, a crowd of about 60 people gathered last thursday evening to witness the lighting of a beacon to mark the 80th anniversary of the d day landings. amid the drab parkas and pullovers was a figure in a striking red coat: natalie fleet, the labour party’s candidate for parliament, wearing her party’s campaign color. she turned up late, having hiked up in heels. but she mixed easily, chatting with a 17 year old high school student, georgia haslam, about her desire to get more young women engaged in politics. “it was reassuring to hear someone like her say, ‘i understand you,’” ms. haslam said afterward. “if you’re not from a city, if you’re not wealthy, it’s not clear that these politicians really care about you.” ms. fleet is on track to win back the parliamentary district of bolsover for labour, which in 2019 it lost to the conservatives for the first time in almost 70 years. her appearance at the d day commemoration was a telling contrast to the conservative prime minister, rishi sunak, who skipped out of d day ceremonies in france the same day to return to london, drawing a torrent of criticism. and the labour party isn’t even the only headache for the tories, three weeks before britain’s general election on july 4. in this hard bitten region of abandoned coal mines and shuttered steel mills, the insurgent party reform u.k. is mounting an unexpectedly robust challenge. it could siphon off enough votes from the conservatives here to leapfrog into second place, after labour.

a tour of britain’s provincial towns reveals a restless nation with no love for its political class. ai generated text to speech london   britain’s labour party swept to a stunning victory friday, almost matching tony blair’s record landslide in 1997. the world is watching, open mouthed: what happened there? keir starmer’s victory   and the collapse of the post brexit tory coalition   rippled across the atlantic as a rare breakthrough for traditional centrist politics in yet another season of populist upheaval. at first glance, the outcome appears to stand in stark contrast to the elections underway in the united states, where president joe biden is straining to stabilize his candidacy against donald trump, and france, where president emmanuel macron’s centrist faction is polling in third place against far left and far right rivals. third way, a centrist american think tank, composed a memo analyzing the election results as a “victory for ruthless competence,” holding up starmer’s campaign as a model for other center left leaders confronting right wing nationalism. for this is not a story of britain lurching to the left. this is a story about something deeper   about broken promises and broken trust; about failing public services and household bills you can’t pay; a collective lust for change. it’s about a deep disillusionment with politics. the tidal wave that swept away the conservative party on thursday night is not so different to the anti establishment wave currently enveloping emmanuel macron in france, and perhaps soon joe biden in america. the public mood in britain is acrid, and will leave starmer with the shortest of honeymoons to deliver. britain is not in a good way. living costs have spiraled over recent years, yet the tax take is the highest it’s been since 1950. the average home costs £281,000, up nearly £100,000 in a decade. food bank use has almost doubled in five years. the (still beloved) national health service has 7.6 million cases waiting for treatment in england alone, almost triple what it was a decade ago. dental patients have pulled out their own teeth with pliers. long term sickness is up by a third since covid 19. of the 3.4 million people now claiming britain’s main disability benefit, more than a third have psychiatric disorders. potholes pit the roads. prisons are full. petty crimes take six months to go through court. social care reform is long promised, but never delivered. two fifths of universities are headed into deficit. multiple local councils have issued bankruptcy notices. sewage overflows into rivers during heavy rain. yet none of this deterred the record 1.2 million people who migrated to the u.k. in 2023, nor nearly 30,000 who risked their lives to illegally cross the 21 mile english channel from france in rickety small boats   up from just 300 in 2018. concern about legal and illegal migration is predictably high. such are the factors fueling the profound sense of state failure which swept the governing conservatives from power on july 4. this was not about left or right. labour’s election slogan was just one word   “change.” the right wing reform uk touched on a similar theme   “britain is broken.” at one livestreamed q&a session with readers of the sun, britain’s best selling tabloid newspaper, outgoing pm rishi sunak was told bluntly: “it feels like the country’s falling apart.” source: the bbc starmer, and indeed sunak, diagnosed many of these problems with clarity during the campaign   in truth, they could hardly have missed them. but proffered solutions have been vague at best. experts warn labour’s limited pledges on tax and spend will not come close to matching the scale of the crisis. and voters know it. despite starmer’s landslide, labour’s overall vote share was far lower than in 1997 or 2001. actual voter turnout was the second lowest in a century. there is no nationwide wave of joy at this result. starmer inherits an “anxious, fractured, slightly battered and exhausted country” with little hope for change, said sunder katwala, director of the immigration and integration think tank british future. this is why the new pm, an experienced, bespectacled lawyer, sold voters a message of competence and an end to chaos; a tidy world where politics does not need to invade his beloved football grounds or his local pub. as starmer put it, a “politics that treads more lightly on all our lives.” this appealed to the british appetite to “put the kettle on and resolve things,” said katwala. but he argues the same tendency risks making starmer’s landslide victory illusory   less like tony blair in 1997 and more like boris johnson, who won in 2019 on a transactional pledge to “get brexit done.” britain is not wedded to labour, nor any other political party. “party de alignment has been happening at pace,” said katwala. faith, ethnic background and the places where people live are all less likely to determine the way people vote than they were a generation ago. “look at france, look at america   what’s happening here is a much shallower divide. for starmer, as a centrist, this suits him, because he’s not a natural politician of dividing lines.” the seeds of voter disillusionment in the u.k. have been sown over decades, and are well rehearsed. the despair over britain’s involvement in the iraq war in 2003; the shock of the 2008 economic crisis; the polarization of the 2016 vote to leave the eu, the political chaos that followed, and brexit’s failure   thus far   to deliver. the £400 billion britain borrowed for covid related spending, and the impact of russia’s war in ukraine, pushed u.k. inflation to a 40 year high in 2022. but such geopolitical forces have been turbocharged by something equally potent, yet more localized   an endless parade of westminster scandals. from revelations that mps were cheating on their taxpayer funded expenses back in 2009 through to a litany of sexual misconduct cases in the late 2010s; from wasteful   some believe criminal   emergency contracts handed out during the covid pandemic, through to those notorious lockdown breaking parties in downing street under boris johnson. even in this very campaign, senior tory aides found themselves under investigation over illicit bets placed on the date of sunak’s snap election. the media called it gamblegate. “i’m no longer proud to be british,” debs, a mental health support worker, told the patchy zoom feed. it was two weeks before the election and she was sitting in her home in aldershot, hampshire, with floral prints and her dog on her lap. union jack banners adorn the high street of the garrison town, the home of the british army. this should have been one of sunak’s heartlands, a town which had returned a tory mp in every election since 1918   until now. “they could not pay me to put my cross in the box for them,” debs said of the conservatives. “i am desperate. i use food banks sometimes. we’ve got nurses using food banks, for christ’s sake. [the nhs] kept people alive for two years during covid and we’ve got nurses using food banks. it’s disgusting. i’m so done.” debs voted conservative only five years ago   as did the other eight aldershot residents in this online focus group. another, an admin officer named daniel, said: “infrastructure’s destroyed, local councils are stripped out, education’s been put on the back foot … it’s an utter and total unrivaled disaster.” yet these voters said they also had little faith in labour’s “bland” plan for government. conleth burns of the more in common think tank, which convened the group, said their pessimism chimed with 50 similar sessions his group has conducted across britain. sitting on a church wall in newark, a midlands market town 160 miles north which usually leans tory, victoria brown   a workshop instructor at a prison   said she wouldn’t be voting conservative either. she cited overcrowding in u.k. jails, and her “eight years without a pay rise.” but she added: “i’ve got a bit of an aversion to keir starmer and to [new labour chancellor] rachel reeves. i don’t like the way they come across.” this skepticism is everywhere. behind the small high street in biddulph, 60 miles west in staffordshire, nhs dentist julian keen said he’d switched his vote to labour from the tories to “have a change”   yet remains doubtful the new government’s plans, including the promise of 700,000 more nhs appointments, will work without an unaffordable cash injection. he bemoans the tens of billions the tories spent on the (now mostly cancelled) high speed 2 rail line, instead of prisons and hospitals. keen doesn’t even bother having a waiting list for his dental practice   it would, he said, be impossibly long. in fact keen only keeps doing the nhs work because he began 25 years ago, when it paid better. he already owns a home and a car. “we’re ok, you know, plodding along,” he said. “but for the new generation coming through, it just doesn’t work.” labour aides say nhs funding and mental health services (along with the knock on effect on welfare claims) jostle at the top of the party’s in tray   as well as acute prison overcrowding, court backlogs and reoffending; and the sheer amount of time it takes to build anything. asked to describe the land labour inherits, a senior party official muttered darkly: “scorched.” “the major challenge is absolute disillusionment   not just with politics, but with the ability of government to deliver,” blair’s former home secretary david blunkett, now a member of the house of lords, told politico. he singled out as an example the lower thames crossing, a road tunnel east of london first proposed in 2009. the planning application alone ran to 350,000 pages and cost £300 million. no decision on the project has yet been made. starmer must work ferociously to head this off, says blunkett. he suggests urgent action to prevent the rise of ai shuttering british industry on a scale last seen in the 1980s, and a “reset” of how overcrowded prisons are built. distrust in government is at a record high, according to the british social attitudes survey, which has been measuring public opinion since 1983. gillian prior, deputy chief executive at the national centre for social research, which runs the survey, said people’s paramount concerns are about the cost of living and nhs   dissatisfaction with which has risen from 25 percent in 2019 to 52 percent now. but the levers of government are slow to take effect. few decisions taken in the coming months will bear fruit until at least 2026, warns blunkett, meaning starmer will have to immediately start making the case that his project requires two five year terms in office. “unless that’s explained, and there’s a very clear narrative, people will soon turn on the government and say, ‘where’s the change?’” “a new dawn has broken, has it not? and it is wonderful,” tony blair said after his famous 1997 landslide. in contrast, starmer’s first speech as prime minister on friday came from a more disconsolate place. “our country needs a bigger reset,” he said. “a rediscovery of who we are.” while his opponent rishi sunak spent the six week campaign promising eye catching new policies and insisting his “plan is working”   with inflation now returned to 2 percent, and growth slowly ticking up after a minor recession   starmer spent it managing expectations and refusing to commit new spending. like 49 day tory pm liz truss before him, starmer has based his entire strategy on britain achieving significantly higher economic growth. yet he knows he faces a far more sluggish economy than blair did in 1997, with gdp almost flat and a sky high national debt. foreign policy is trickier these days, too; militaristic russia and economic giant china were comparative minnows in 1997. and back then, donald trump was still preoccupied with real estate. ten years ago this october, britain elected its first mp from ukip   the right wing euroskeptic party then run by trump’s friend and ally, nigel farage. history has a way of repeating itself. farage, dubbed “mr. brexit” by trump and now leading a similar insurgent outfit called reform uk, has just been elected to the same seat, his fledgling party garnering millions of votes across the country. the original ukip mp, tory defector douglas carswell, believes his own 2014 victory in clacton, essex, was the “first straw in the wind” of voter disenchantment that later brought brexit, the fall of labour’s “red wall” seats in the midlands and north to the tories in 2019, and even this week’s labour’s landslide that claimed them back. “this was traditional blue collar voters, many of whom might historically have voted for labour, saying that actually they’ve had enough and wanting to vote for something different,” said carswell. “what started in clacton 10 years ago has now become a national phenomenon. “it’s a totally justified revolt against the conceit of people who’ve got ppe [politics, philosophy and economics] degrees from oxbridge [oxford and cambridge universities].” he singles out covid lockdowns, high immigration and the march to net zero climate emissions as examples of elitist policymaking. arguably this mistrust of the political class   particularly among conservatives   began under blair’s new labour government. blair’s support for the iraq war, and for so called “nanny state” and equality laws (which critics say are flawed) fuelled a sense among his critics of an aloof, we know best establishment. starmer is no ppe clone, but his lawyerly ambition to set up more independent “commissions” and watchdogs to restore voters’ trust have revived mutterings on the right that he would only give more power to the state machine. cultural dividing lines are running as hot in britain as in every other western nation; starmer’s pledge to simplify the process for trans people to change their legal gender, once a tory commitment, has attracted controversy on his own side too. it was also only five years ago that starmer persuaded his party to support a second referendum on brexit, hoping to reverse the original decision. for john bird, a campaigner and member of the house of lords who co founded the big issue magazine to help homeless people off britain’s streets, such procedural battles worsened trust in politicians. “i voted to remain, and then i watched the house of lords and house of commons try and overrule the democratic process,” the 78 year old told politico. “i was absolutely appalled by that.” yet many (bird among them) argue the problem is not a state that’s too powerful, but precisely the opposite   a state which has been hacked to its roots. years of tory austerity in the public sector after the 2008 financial crash slashed council and whitehall budgets but largely failed to cut the u.k.’s debt (now £2.7 trillion). “it was the poorest in society who paid for the fucking bankers’ misuse,” said bird. blunkett argues the problem is that politicians “promise from the center” without asking voters to do their bit. “we weren’t communitarian enough,” he says of blair’s government. “we weren’t saying   look, there are things we can do as government and there are things that we can enable you to do, but this is a common purpose. you’ve also got to change things.” this public buy in will never be needed more than in labour’s pledge to build 1.5 million homes in five years, including on protected “green belt” land. the appetite is there   tens of thousands of familes are trapped in temporary accommodation, and house prices have never been higher. yougov polling shows 50 percent of brits would support a big increase of new housing in their area. but that won’t stop the inevitable avalanche of hostile campaigns from local activists when the first sods are actually turned. as britain went to the polls on thursday, henley on thames   a picture postcard town in berkshire   was brimming with candy stripe suits and boater hats. the occasion was the annual henley royal regatta, a world famous rowing festival seen as a playground for britain’s rural elite. with its red, white and blue bunting and heritage listed houses (average asking price, £750,000), this pocket of tory england has had conservative mps for 114 years, among them boris johnson. yet now its mp is a liberal democrat. england’s centrist, pro european third party, hammered in 2015 by voters furious at its role in a tory led coalition government, seized ruthlessly on local, bread and butter grievances to bounce back from 15 mps to more than 70. by targeting separate seats, the lib dems and labour exacted a devastating pincer movement on conservative heartlands in southern england. and no local issue caused more of a stench in the south of england than sewage   particularly in henley. tests undertaken on the river shortly before this week’s regatta found levels of e.coli 27 times higher than acceptable thresholds. anna cowell, a member of the leander rowing club, said: “there’s been quite a few vomiting bugs from the water, because there’s no real way to stop the water getting in the boat or getting on your hands.” england’s victorian built sewage network still combines sewage with rainwater runoff, meaning during heavy rain there are two choices   allow the sewage to back up into people’s homes, or to discharge into rivers and the sea. middle class voters, in particular, are enraged. starmer has promised to put the failing water firms in special measures and block their executive’s bonuses. time will tell whether that stops voters seeing him as part of an establishment that is quite literally full of shit. as if the labour/lib dem pincer movement was not enough, the conservatives also saw their support hacked away from the right by nigel farage. reform uk drew thousands of disaffected voters at a time to trump style rallies on a scale not seen since left wing labour leader jeremy corbyn. reform won only four seats under britain’s first past the post system, but 14.3 percent of the vote   so crucially splitting the tories’ right wing support. “i think society’s become corrupt, greedy,” said one reform voter, retired crane and forklift truck driver barry carter. sheltering under a market stand in newark, where he has lived for 57 years, carter said the money britain sends to ukraine should be spent on the nhs instead. “we’re not finished yet after ukraine   there’s going to be another country wants protecting,” he said. “is it finland? is it estonia? is it latvia?” with flower baskets on its tudor and georgian buildings, newark is hardly one of the left behind bricks of labour’s “red wall” industrial heartland. it ultimately stayed blue on thursday night, but with a 24 point drop in the conservative vote share. the main beneficiary was reform uk. reform’s surge was driven almost entirely by record high immigration. the public debate focused mostly on small boats crossing the channel illegally, despite the vast majority of net migration being approved through the u.k. visa system. sunak repeatedly attacked starmer’s vague pledge to “smash the gangs” which are smuggling people across from france   but failed utterly on his own vow to “stop the boats.” dover, kent, the front line in this struggle, has just elected its first labour mp since 2010. but many of those on dover’s sparsely trodden high street, and in the more trendy town of deal just up the coast, told politico they would back reform   pushing the tories into third place here, and again splitting the right wing vote. at 4 p.m. in a quarter full wetherspoons chain pub, one reform voter who refused to give his name complained labour and the tories were the “same party.” it’s a message echoed time and time again around the u.k. more than 300 miles north, on a thursday lunchtime inside hartlepool’s dated 1970 middleton grange shopping center, the larger chain stores remain open   but other units have the shutters down. the town has received “leveling up” funding from the government, and scaffolding is dotted about, but local politicians’ messages that hartlepool’s best days are ahead of it are hard to land. it is here that, just over three years ago, boris johnson was at the peak of his powers. the port town in county durham had turned blue for the first time since 1964, via a parliamentary by election. the then tory prime minister met an inflatable balloon doppelgänger of himself, hoisted by jubilant supporters, arms aloft in victory. a year into his job as labour leader, a defeated keir starmer pondered whether to quit. much has changed since then. with reform hoovering up thousands of former tory voters, hartlepool easily returned to labour last night   just like dozens of “red wall” towns which had previously lent their votes to johnson to “level up” their communities and “get brexit done” in 2019. but here, too, starmer still has much to prove. “places like hartlepool are just forgotten about,” said kaitlyn maxfield, 24, a student at the northern school of art. this is only the second election she’s been able to vote in, yet the former labour supporter said: “we just feel completely unrepresented by everyone … do i spoil my ballot and hope for the best?” then there is the friction between westminster and the u.k.’s devolved nations. thursday’s electoral meltdown for scotland’s ruling scottish national party   yet another case of voters savaging an unpopular incumbent   means a second independence referendum now looks far off. labour is promising more devolved powers in the hope relations will heal. but dissatisfaction with westminster remains sky high. across the irish sea, the republican party sinn féin now holds the most westminster seats in the whole of northern ireland   hardly a ringing endorsement of the ruling class. it has predicted people in the region will vote on uniting with the republic of ireland in the coming years. everywhere there are warning signs for starmer. reform finished second to labour in more than 100 seats   and farage now promises he is “coming for labour” next. a glance across europe shows the right wing populist surge will be hard to quell. starmer’s left flank, too, is exposed. labour lost a slew of formerly safe seats on thursday to independents or left wing green party candidates protesting about his position on gaza. the labour leader was slow to call for an immediate ceasefire in the region. the anger at some of his pro israel remarks has been visceral. somehow he needs to rebuild trust with those communities. starmer is aware none of this will be easy. his election manifesto offered bold vision, but few concrete solutions. his supporters argue that tony blair achieved more than was in his 1997 manifesto, and that likewise, that starmer can under promise and then over deliver. thus his 5 a.m. victory speech, delivered at a cavernous modern art gallery on the banks of the river thames, painted the challenge in broad strokes. starmer invoked only “the sunlight of hope, pale at first but getting stronger through the day.” “things can only get better” was blair’s 1997 campaign anthem. britain’s voters, in dissonant, cacophonous voice, have told starmer that is exactly what they want. now, somehow, he has to deliver it. esther webber reported from aldershot; stefan boscia from henley; bethany dawson from bristol; sam blewett from newark, and noah keate from bradford and hartlepool. the former u.k. prime minister has quietly been meeting labour’s new mps   and he’s not the only blairite who’s at it. u.s. president’s shake up of the security apparatus has complicated scrutiny of controversial british deal over diego garcia military base. with keir starmer in town, eu officials and diplomats say their expectations were too high when the british pm took office last year. incoming british ambassador to the u.s. says 2019 attacks on trump were “ill judged”   but urges white house not to leave ukraine to putin.

analysis of a mega poll shows keir starmer would lose more seats than tories amid voter discontent with main parties labour faces losing scores of seats to reform uk across england and wales as a widening section of ­voters lose faith in the mainstream parties, according to a new analysis seen by the observer. with senior figures in the labour party now privately talking about a “change of era” in which more ­moderate voters are turning to nigel farage’s party, new research on reform’s influence suggests it will take far more seats from labour than from the conservatives on ­current trends. reform would win 76 seats if an election were held now, according to a constituency by constituency model. of those, 60 would be won from labour, including seats across the “red wall”, as well as in wales and across the south of england. however, the analysis also reveals that even a relatively small further swing towards reform from labour could see the party pick up another 76 labour held seats. the narrow labour lead in many seats means it is susceptible in the event of a high turnout among reform voters, a surge in reform’s support, or a drop in labour turnout. the huge study, commissioned by the hope not hate campaign group, has been carried out by the focaldata polling company using a mega poll, or mrp, made up of almost 18,000 voters. its analysis of almost 4,000 ­voters currently minded to back reform found that one in five were “moderate, interventionist” voters who were unlike those who had backed farage at the last election or supported ukip or the brexit party in the past. they were quite positive about immigration and in favour of a strong state, but disillusioned with the ­ability of the main parties to deliver. the analysis comes with some of the most senior figures in the labour party focused on the threat posed by reform, which many see as the result of a collapse in the belief that the mainstream parties are able to improve the lives of ordinary people. while reform’s rise hit the tories the most at the last election, many believe there is now a real threat to keir starmer’s party. “at the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for reform were not considering labour,” said a senior labour source. “that won’t be true now, because we’re in government and people are looking for change. the number of people that are feeling unsure about the future is quite big. it’s not just on the fringes of the electoral system. “it’s not just turbulence. it is a change of era. people are angrier. there is a lot more voter fluidity. the people who are driving the change aren’t the political forces at the top. they are the ordinary people at the bottom   and they want delivery. we’ve got to be on their side and demonstrate that the government can make a difference in their lives.” the focaldata study found that with just a 3% swing to reform from both labour and the conservatives, reform could be on 169 seats. it is currently picking up 12% of those who voted for the conservatives at the last election and 7% of those who backed labour. however, reform is making significantly more inroads in certain seats. it is picking up between 10% and 15% of those who voted labour at the last election in seats with large white working class populations. defections to reform are much lower in labour’s more diverse ­metropolitan seats. the poll suggests a new era of four party politics. as well as 266 seats where there is less than 6% between the top two parties, there are also 60 three way marginals and one four way marginal. sign up to observed analysis and opinion on the week's news and culture brought to you by the best observer writers after newsletter promotion nick lowles, chief executive of hope not hate, who analysed the findings, said that there was a clear and present threat to labour should it fail to deliver the improvements to living standards and public services that starmer has promised. “the polling should be a wake up call for everyone,” he said. “reform uk is emerging as a major political force in britain. the idea that reform hurts the conservatives more than labour is plainly nonsense. as our polling graphically shows, the vast majority of seats reform would win if there was an election today are from labour, as are most of the seats they would take on a swing of 3% or less. “strong anti immigration views were dominant among those who voted reform in the 2024 general election, but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views. “this includes a sizeable group of voters who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.” figures in downing street are open about the challenge of winning the trust of the public after many years in which public services have been run down and political promises broken. however, one said that starmer and his ministers were now “prepared to pick fights” over issues such as housebuilding that demonstrated he was fighting the public’s corner. “we’ve got to make sure that we are clear about the choices that we’re making and about whose side we’re on,” said one. the breakdown of reform voters found that they were a coalition of newer, more moderate voters and “radical young men” inspired by the likes of elon musk, as well as older groups of conservative and working class voters opposed to immigration. “there is no single way to fight reform,” said lowles. “there are different types of reform voters and each needs a different approach. at the same time, we need to hold reform accountable to greater scrutiny for its increasingly divergent and contradictory positions. “reform gets away with being able to have a coalition of libertarian free marketeers alongside those who want greater state intervention and ownership of key industries. likewise, farage is clearly trying to present a more moderate image, but those around him hold really hardline and extreme views.”

nl en after 14 years of tory rule, the british are ready for change this thursday. the liz truss debacle, healthcare waiting lists, teacher shortages, and scarce housing drive voters to labour. tories may even end third, after reform uk. an alignment of the two parties after the elections is conceivable. the next labour government lacks fiscal space for fundamental policy changes, nor will it reconsider brexit. the change in government will therefore not affect growth and inflation prospects, indeed, stubborn inflation will limit the bank of england’s plan to lower interest rates. britons are going to the ballot box this thursday. the vote is somewhat earlier than expected, with prime minister rishi sunak calling parliamentary elections at an unfavourable time for his party. after 14 years of tory rule, the british are ready for change. britons have not forgotten the scandals during the pandemic under boris johnson, nor the financial calamity that struck the united kingdom when liz truss briefly took over. financial market investors punished her proposals for drastic tax cuts with a fall in the pound and higher interest risk premiums on government bonds. this ultimately led to the downfall of her government, but the severe damage to the conservatives’ credibility on fiscal and economic policy has been lasting. economically, the conservatives did not meet up to voters’ expectations. while unemployment is low, real wages have barely risen in recent years, causing britons' disposable income to fall back relative to other countries. moreover, healthcare waiting lists continue to grow, teacher shortages are increasing and housing is scarce and expensive. on top of this, the quality of local services has deteriorated because of the cuts in council grants. finally, the brexit issue: migration. the tories have not succeeded in curbing immigration. on the contrary, the number of immigrants has increased, driven by those coming from outside the eu. it is therefore not surprising that the conservatives are doing badly in the polls. what also does not help is that their already unpopular leader rishi sunak is committing one blunder after another during his campaign. another factor is that nigel farage, the chief cheerleader of brexit, has recently become reform uk's list leader, attracting disappointed tory voters. there is even a chance that   in terms of vote share   the radical right reform uk pass the conservatives. given the ‘first past the post’ electoral system, in which the candidate with the most votes in a given regional constituency wins one of the 650 seats in parliament, the fragmentation on the right of the political spectrum weakens the position of right wing parties. as such, while reform may get 15 20% of the popular vote, it will probably only win a handful of seats in parliament. the bias in the electoral system, which favours large parties over smaller parties, could lead up to an alignment of the conservatives and reform uk after the elections. effectively that would imply a rightward shift of the former conservative party. notwithstanding the recent drop labour is heading for a strong score, according to the polls. in addition to voters being fed up with tories and the fragmentation on the right, labour is also helped by the scottish national party. the snp is less popular because of its internal problems and because, for now, there is no prospect of scottish independence, a key theme of the party. scottish voters are expected to switch to labour. although labour campaigns with the slogan "change," we do not think government policy will change after the election. since taking over the leadership of the labour party from the far left jeremy corbyn, keir starmer has steered the party to a more centrist policy agenda. starmer is more in tune with former labour prime minister tony blair and his finance minister gordon brown, who embraced market thinking with new labour in the late 1990s. however, starmer is more critical of globalization than blair and brown, and more concerned with globalization’s adverse effects on the distribution of income and wealth. starmer has moved to the right in terms of his views over the years, in part to attract centrist voters. he assumes that voters on the left have few alternatives and will vote labour anyway. starmer has since backtracked on promises he made in the battle for party leadership, such as the plan to abolish tuition fees for british students, or his intention to roll back privatizations of postal, energy and water companies. another example is brexit. in the past, starmer wanted to hold a referendum on rolling back brexit. now he is keeping a low profile on this still thorny issue for the british. a low profile on brexit is not to say that british policy toward europe will remain entirely the same with starmer at the helm. the conservatives have been betting on trade deals outside of europe in recent years. apart from deals with far flung, smaller economies, they came home cold, with limited interest from larger trade partners such as the us and china. starmer is expected to push for regulation that is not too out of step with that of the eu, to keep trade frictions with the uk’s biggest trade partner to a minimum. but not much more than that. financially, starmer has little room for radical adjustments. public finances have weakened after a period of weak gdp growth and high government spending related to covid and the energy crisis. thus, there is not much money for stimulus measures. rather, tax increases are on the agenda. in its manifesto, labour announced gbp8bn in proposed tax increases. these include taxes for wealthy so called ‘non doms’ (an archaic tax status given to residents with overseas ancestry), measures to combat tax avoidance, higher vat on private schooling, extra taxes for large energy companies that profit excessively from energy price increases, and a reversal of inheritance tax cuts made by former chancellor george osborne. labour wants to use a total of gbp5bn of this amount to improve the quality of public services and to put them on a more sustainable footing. much of labour's attention will be on the housing market in the coming years. the number of new homes built has long failed to keep up with demand. labour promises to add 1.5 million homes over the next five years. to achieve this, the number of annual homes constructed needs to be doubled. a key tool for this is more flexible zoning regulation. in addition, labour is studying tax measures that encourage councils to allocate land for housing. proceeds from such a tax incentive could also help to reduce council taxes, which are regressive in nature and hinder a more equal distribution of income. other prominent issues are the nhs and education reform. in recent years, more money was allocated to health care. but health care costs rose even faster because of the complex care demands of an ageing population that deals with more frequent obesity and mental issues. the nhs’s problems cannot necessarily be solved by just spending more money. the organization of the healthcare system also needs attention. the same applies to education. teachers quit because the workload is too high and jobs in other sectors give them more latitude. then there is the need for greening the economy. labour proposes to allocate an extra gbp24bn over the next few years. the uk has already made progress in generating renewable energy. now the problem is that electricity grid has too little capacity and investment is needed. investments are also needed to reduce household energy consumption by making homes more sustainable. compared to other countries, the housing stock is old and poorly insulated. labour spends gbp1.1bn annually to improve homes with unfavourable energy labels. lastly, labour plans to set up a state owned green energy utility company. housing, health, education, and sustainability targets will be difficult for labour to meet without a growing economy. currently, economic growth is based primarily on increases in the number of hours worked. but there is an upper limit to this. it is therefore necessary to improve productivity. productivity growth declined steadily during the financial, covid and energy crises, while brexit strained potential growth. if the economy had maintained the same growth rate after 2008 as before the financial crisis, the economy would be a quarter larger today. declines in productivity growth are not unique to the uk. still, there are factors specific to the uk. first, the economy relies heavily on the services sector and the productivity of its most productive component   the financial sector   is under pressure. second, all sectors perform worse than comparable sectors abroad in terms of productivity growth. third, there are major differences in productivity across regions. overall, london stands far above the other larger cities. in other countries, regional differences are much smaller. there are explanations for the stagnation of productivity growth. a fundamental problem is the poor condition of transport infrastructure. in addition, only a small share of gdp goes to training. the level of education falls short, and a large share of the workforce is underqualified. finally, business investment is at a low level, despite businesses being in healthy financial shape. this is due not only to the service oriented nature of the economy, but also to non tariff and regulatory trade barriers that entrepreneurs face because of brexit (see box on page 3), and their limited access to venture capital. as we approach the general election, the uk economy has finally shown signs of life, with growth rebounding 0.7% q/q in q1 this year. this followed almost two years of stagnation, and even a short technical recession in the second half of 2023. the uk   alongside other european economies   was hard hit by the energy crisis and in particular the shock to real incomes. with high nominal wage growth having now largely made up for the price shock, and inflation much lower, real wages are finally making some positive headway. this is giving a lift to private consumption. a further support is coming from lower interest rates. while the bank of england is yet to start cutting rates, lower government bond yields in anticipation of rate cuts are already providing some relief in financing costs for both businesses and households. this is particularly so due to the much higher share of short term fixed rate mortgages in the uk compared to other countries (with 2  and 5 year fixed rates the most commonplace). this means that interest rate changes impact the economy with a shorter lag than elsewhere. looking ahead, we expect the economy to continue recovering this year, but to grow at a below trend rate (see table at the end of this publication). as described above, the lack of fiscal space for the incoming government leaves little room for bold tax and spend changes, and the changes that labour has proposed are likely to have a limited (close to negligible) growth impact. the one non fiscal policy lever that could make a difference   brexit   remains a taboo subject. as such, while the election will herald a significant political shift, its economic impact is likely to be close to negligible. this leaves monetary policy as the main potential source of stimulus, but here too, there are limits on the pace at which the bank of england can lower rates. this is because wage growth, at over 6%, remains far above levels consistent with inflation staying at 2% over time. inflation is a deeper rooted problem in the uk that predates the pandemic and the energy crisis. in contrast to the us and the eurozone, the uk never faced the ‘problem’ of too low inflation in the post 2008 financial crisis period, but rather faced a smaller albeit idiosyncratic inflation shock from the collapse in sterling following the 2016 brexit referendum. this meant the starting point for inflation expectations in the uk was significantly higher pre pandemic than in the us and the eurozone. as a result, although wage growth has peaked and is expected to slowly fall back to more normal levels, in the mean time it is likely to drive a renewed firming in inflation. headline cpi inflation only just returned to the boe’s 2% target in may, helped by the lagged pass through of lower energy prices. however, we expect this flirt with the boe’s target to be short lived. as the energy drag fades, we think core inflation will stay stubbornly high, driving a rebound in headline inflation. due to the dovish tilt of the mpc, we still expect the boe start a rate cut cycle this coming august. however, we think sticky inflation will temper the pace of these rate cuts, and as such we expect just two 25bp cuts this year, and four 25bp cuts next year. this would still leave bank rate in restrictive territory by the end of next year, at 3.5%. some support, but no panacea. these are the key macro events for the upcoming week. the bank of england lowered interest rates yesterday by 25bp, taking bank rate to 4.5%, as was widely expected. much more surprising was the vote split, with a seeming about turn from long time hawk catherine mann, who joined long time dove swati dhingra in voting for a 50bp cut (the vote was 7 2 in favour of 25bp). we expect the boe to continue cutting at a quarterly pace for the time being, but for bank rate to settle at an elevated 3.5% in 2026.

discover our public data, featuring a diverse range of survey results, articles, trackers and popularity rankings. from the latest political surveys to in depth analysis, find out what the world thinks. get intelligence from our ever growing source of consumer data on 27 million+ registered panel members in 55+ markets. /research reality. the most timely, and relevant polling, trends and analysis on elections. our senior political specialists apply their expertise to provide projections and keep you up to date. discover our public data, featuring a diverse range of survey results, articles, trackers and popularity rankings. from the latest political surveys to in depth analysis, find out what the world thinks. get intelligence from our ever growing source of consumer data on 27 million+ registered panel members in 55+ markets. /research reality. the most timely, and relevant polling, trends and analysis on elections. our senior political specialists apply their expertise to provide projections and keep you up to date. reform uk are the new kids on the block. having only existed for five and a half years, and this being the first general election they are seriously contesting (having in their previous iteration as the brexit party agreed with the conservatives not to stand candidates against them in 2019), nigel farage’s party is currently breathing down the necks of the conservatives in our latest voting intention polling. even within the context of the party’s short existence, many of those intending to vote for it have made the decision to do so relatively recently   through 2023 reform uk was only polling at half the rate it is now. but what do reform uk voters believe? while most people could probably point to brexit and immigration as issues the party is particularly exercised by, what do they think across a host of other domestic issues? now a new yougov survey provides an outline of what the views of reform uk voters are, and how those differ to both the wider public in general and tory voters in particular. reform uk voters are more obviously culturally right wing than they are economically right wing, occupying a fairly traditionalist conservative ideological position but one which is also characterised by elements of economic left populism. of the policy statements we put to them, the one they are most likely to believe is that “young people today do not have enough respect for traditional british values”, at 89%. they are similarly likely to think that “migrants coming to the united kingdom across the english channel should all be immediately removed from the united kingdom and prevented from ever returning” (86%) and also have a very strong tendency to say “multiculturalism has made the uk worse” (78%). when it comes to crime, 85% believe that court sentences are not harsh enough, and 77% think the death penalty should be allowed. on lgbtq+ issues, while two thirds support same sex marriage (65%), a similar number also say that transgender people should not be allowed to legally change their gender (69%). on our economic questions the results are more mixed. half (51%) say the government are taxing too much and spending too much, while 42% say government should not redistribute income from the better off to the less well off. but these come towards the bottom of the table in terms of views reform uk voters have   in fact, this latter redistribution belief comes very bottom, with an opposing 33% saying that the government should redistribute income. while they may not be pro redistribution, reform uk voters nevertheless feel that ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation's wealth (73%). they likewise think that the rich should be taxed more than average earners (69%), but at the same time think that welfare benefits are currently too generous (60%). economic issues are not the only area where populist attitudes are prevalent among reform uk voters: 78% feel that rich people in the uk are able to get around the law or get off more easily than poorer people, and a similar number think big businesses take advantage of ordinary people (74%). on international issues we put to reform uk voters, opinion is also more greatly split. on ukraine, 44% think that britain should support the beleaguered nation until russian withdrawal, even if this means the war lasts longer, while 39% want to encourage a negotiated peace even if this leaves russia in control over some parts of ukraine. when it comes to gaza, 46% say they side more with israel versus 9% with palestinians, but 36% with neither side. while some of these beliefs are clearly strongly represented among reform uk voters, that does not necessarily make them distinct from the wider public. for instance, when it comes to those questions covering power dynamics in the uk, the proportion of britons overall who think that rich people can get away with more legally (80%), big businesses take advantage of ordinary people (76%), and ordinary people do not get their fair share of the nation’s wealth (75%) is almost identical to the proportion of reform uk voters who feel the same way. in this regard, the public and reform uk view is notably different from that of conservative voters. while most tory voters agree with the sentiment, they do so at notably lower rates (51 61%). on other issues, attitudes among reform uk voters are distinct from both the public and tory voters. this is particularly the case on issues to do with migration and british culture: the 78% of reform uk voters who think that multiculturalism has made the uk worse is more than thirty points higher than among conservative voters (47%) and almost two and a half times the rate among the wider public (32%). likewise, the desire for reform uk voters to see small boat migrants immediately removed from the united kingdom and prevented from ever returning (86%) is more than 20pts higher than among tory voters (64%) and more than twice as high as the public as a whole (41%). at 89%, reform uk voters are far more likely than the wider public to think that young people do not have enough respect for traditional british values (56%), and to a lesser extent than their conservative counterparts (81%). unsurprisingly, given the party’s origins, reform uk voters are also significantly more likely to want further separation from the eu (61%, versus 43% of tory voters and 22% of all britons). they are also notably more likely to think that the government is doing and spending too much to try and tackle carbon emissions, to think that it should not be legal to change your gender, and that the death penalty should be permissible. where reform uk and conservative voters are most to each other, while being different from the wider public, is in their increased belief that criminal sentencing is not harsh enough and that welfare benefits are too generous, as well as being somewhat less likely to think that same sex marriage should be legal (although two thirds still do). nigel farage came in for criticism last week for remarks that russia was provoked into invading ukraine by nato’s eastwards expansion. our study shows that reform uk voters are far more likely to lay at least some of the blame for the ukraine conflict at nato’s door. while 56% of britons say that russia is “entirely” responsible for the conflict   including 75% of tory voters and 66% of labour voters   this falls to 33% for reform uk voters. one in seven reform uk voters say that nato is more to blame than russia (15%), while a further 19% say nato and russia are equally to blame. another quarter say russia is more to blame, but that some responsibility still rests with nato (24%). none of this is to say that reform uk voters are anti nato: only 26% have a negative view of the alliance. the majority (63%) have a favourable view of nato, although this does trail the wider public (69%) and their tory counterparts (78%). around one in eight reform uk voters appear to be actively pro russian: 12% say they want russia to win in ukraine, and 11% say they have a favourable view of vladimir putin. while 86% of reform uk voters have an unfavourable view of the russian president, they are noticeably less likely to have a “very unfavourable” view of putin than other voting groups, at 69% compared to 88 93% among tory, labour, lib dem and green voters. likewise, while two thirds of reform uk voters say they want ukraine to win in its battle against russia, they are noticeably more likely to want to reduce levels of support to the country   40% say so, compared to 10 13% for other voters. one in three also have a negative view of ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy (35%). in terms of reform uk’s attitudes towards other international figures, the biggest distinction is that they are fans of donald trump. the majority (56%) of reform uk voters have a favourable view of the former us president, while 41% have an unfavourable view. this compares to only 16% of conservative voters, and the same number among the public as a whole. they are similarly less likely to be fans of joe biden   only 7% have a favourable view of the current us president, compared to one in three among the wider public and also the tory base (32 33%). french president emmanuel macron is also substantially less popular among reform uk voters (9%) than tories and the wider public (27 28%). here in britain, it is no surprise to see that reform uk voters are almost universally fans of nigel farage (94%). perhaps more surprising is that relatively high numbers don’t seem to know who recent leader richard tice is   37% answered “don’t know”, while 50% have a favourable view and 13% an unfavourable one. nigel farage is indeed more popular among reform uk voters than the king (68%)   a level notably closer to that of the wider public (63%) than it is to tory voters (88%). reform uk voters are less likely to be fans of boris johnson than their tory counterparts (45% vs 64%), but they are slightly more likely to like liz truss (24% vs 17%)   who indeed they like more than rishi sunak (18%). see the full results for the battery of policy and attitudinal questions here and the questions on favourability and the ukraine war here what do you think about reform uk, the election campaign in general, and everything else? have your say, join the yougov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. sign up here photo: getty explore more data & articles nigel farage reform uk uk general election 2024 elections british politics copyright © 2024 yougov plc. all rights reserved

discover our public data, featuring a diverse range of survey results, articles, trackers and popularity rankings. from the latest political surveys to in depth analysis, find out what the world thinks. get intelligence from our ever growing source of consumer data on 27 million+ registered panel members in 55+ markets. /research reality. the most timely, and relevant polling, trends and analysis on elections. our senior political specialists apply their expertise to provide projections and keep you up to date. discover our public data, featuring a diverse range of survey results, articles, trackers and popularity rankings. from the latest political surveys to in depth analysis, find out what the world thinks. get intelligence from our ever growing source of consumer data on 27 million+ registered panel members in 55+ markets. /research reality. the most timely, and relevant polling, trends and analysis on elections. our senior political specialists apply their expertise to provide projections and keep you up to date. one of the biggest shifts in public opinion since the general election has been the continued rise of reform uk, with yougov’s latest voting intention figures putting the party on 23% of the vote, up from the 15% they won in great britain last july. but what is driving these gains and how do britons feel about the next steps for the party? a quarter of all britons (24%) say they would consider voting for reform uk at a future election. this includes 33% of those who voted for the conservatives at last year’s general election, 9% of those who voted labour and 8% of lib dems. the party is more attractive to men, with 29% considering voting for reform, relative to 19% of women. interest in reform uk also increases with age, with 36% of over 65s and 28% of 50 64 year olds open to casting their vote for the party in future, compared to 17% of 25 49 year olds and 14% of 18 24 year olds. among those who voted leave in the 2016 eu referendum, they are now the most considered option, with 46% of leavers considering voting for reform in a future general election, compared to only 40% who currently say the same of the conservatives. to find out what is behind the reform surge, we asked those considering voting for the party to tell us in their own words what most attracts them to reform uk, with the results then categorised by yougov’s ai powered topic quantifier model. reform uk’s distinct identity compared to the established parties is key to its appeal, with 19% of reform uk considerers saying that the most attractive aspect of the party is the fact they are neither labour nor the conservatives, or that they are better than the rest. an additional 9% of considerers gave more individual criticisms of labour (5%) or the conservatives (4%) for what has pushed them towards reform uk. their broader difference also has appeal, with 11% of considerers saying the thing that has pulled them most towards the party is the fact that reform is different and represents a new approach. reform’s flagship immigration policies are also central to the party’s appeal, cited as the main attraction by 18% of those considering voting for them. their wider policy platform and general values are given as the top pull by a further 11%. other draws for reform uk include a belief that it is best for the country and will stand up for britain, which is the party’s most attractive feature for 7% of considerers, while another 7% say they are primarily drawn to the party by its perceived representation of average britons. while reform’s gains in polls might be sizeable, those votes are yet to be fully locked in and just 28% of those considering voting for the party (amounting to 7% of britons) say they have no reservations at all about voting for them. for the rest of the reform uk considerers, the party’s lack of experience is one of the most common top sources of apprehension, being cited by 11% as their main reservation about voting for them. a worry that a reform uk vote ultimately won’t make a difference also comes up relatively frequently. concerns that the uk’s first past the post voting system will make backing the party a ‘wasted vote’ are given as the biggest reservation by 9% of considerers, while 8% say that their main source of doubt is that reform uk will turn out to be just like other parties. unease with certain elements of the party is also a more common top reservation, with 7% of those considering reform uk saying their main reservation is that the party is too right wing or extreme, alongside another 4% who are troubled by the party’s poor candidate choices and 3% who are concerned about racism in the party. reform’s policy platform is also an issue for some considerers, with 4% citing the vagueness of the party’s policy as their biggest reservation about voting for them, while another 6% had issues with specific policies, including 2% uneasy at reform’s immigration policy and 2% most concerned about their policy on the nhs. key to reform uk’s success at the next general election will be the extent to which they have convinced potential voters that they are a viable alternative to the conservatives as a party of official opposition, or even government. if they cannot, a perception of them being a wasted vote could limit their prospects and see gains returning home. after all, 38% of those currently considering voting reform uk say they would also consider voting for the conservatives. despite opinion polls now showing reform uk on similar levels of support to the conservatives and labour, the british public are yet to consider them a ‘main party’, with just 29% of britons seeing them on that level. this compares to 90% who say so of labour, 88% who consider the conservatives to be a ‘main party’ and 44% who say the same of the lib dems. while this does put reform uk on a peg most similar to the snp, who 24% of the public see as a ‘main party’, it does represent an increase since july last year, when only 19% of britons classified reform as such. there is a partisan element to whether people consider reform uk to be a ‘main party’, with 79% of reform voters considering them one, relative to 36% of conservatives and 17% of labour and lib dem voters. of those considering voting for reform uk in future, though, two thirds (67%) see the party as a ‘main party’, against 30% who say it is not one, leaving open the potential for some considerers to not see them as a worthwhile vote in a general election. the rise of reform uk has tended to pose the biggest threat to the conservatives, with the tories being the largest source of new reform voters at both the last election and since. the threat of the two parties splitting the right of centre vote has led some, including nigel farage, to advocate for a merger of the two parties. but such a prospect splits both support bases. just 47% of those who voted conservative at the last election would support a merger, with this falling to 38% among those who chose reform uk in the 2024 election. those currently considering reform uk, though, are a little more open, with 48% supportive of a merger, against 36% who are opposed to a union with the tories. among all britons who support a merger, there is a near three way split on how the new party would turn out, with 30% saying it would be more like reform uk, 26% more like the conservatives and 32% who believe it would be equally like both parties. however, among just those considering reform uk who support a merger, there is a greater expectation that a merged party would be more like reform uk, with 41% expecting it to the dominant tradition in the new party, relative to 21% who expect it to be more influenced by the tories. by contrast, those reform considerers who oppose a merger tend to suspect a unified party would be more like the conservatives, with 49% believing so, compared to 22% who suspect it would be more like reform and 8% who feel it would take equally from both parties. without a merger, there is a worry among some conservatives that reform uk could surpass them as the largest right wing party in the uk, something that has already happened in yougov’s first voting intention polls since the general election. but there is only limited appetite among the public for such an overtaking to become more solid. half of britons (49%) would see reform uk replacing the tories as a negative, compared to just 21% who would see it positively and a further 17% who would see it in neutral terms. while reform uk voters are unsurprisingly the most enthusiastic, with 83% seeing the prospect positively, conservatives are not as clearly negative. although nearly half of conservative voters (45%) would negatively view the conservatives losing their status as the main right wing party in the uk, there are a quarter of tories (24%) who would see this as a positive and another quarter (25%) who say they would not be bothered either way. disapproval is instead found more strongly among labour and lib dem voters, more than seven in ten of which (71 72%) would feel negatively about the tories being replaced as the largest right wing party by reform uk. see the full results here yougov are continuing to offer innovations and new products in the ai space   reach out to us if you think our ai topic quantifier model could be of use to you in your future projects. photo: getty explore more data & articles reform uk british politics copyright © 2024 yougov plc. all rights reserved

supported by three weeks after a rift, the head of the populist reform u.k. party said elon musk remains open to a donation that could shake up british politics. by jane bradley his influence is partly the result of a very online political establishment, and partly thanks to a right leaning media that is hostile to keir starmer’s labour government. by mark landler with 211 million followers on social media, the multibillionaire seems intent on using his global platform to rattle british politics. by mark landler and stephen castle elon musk, the billionaire backer of donald j. trump, had been promoting nigel farage. but on sunday mr. musk said mr. farage “doesn’t have what it takes.” by mark landler the british politician shared an image on social media that showed him at donald trump’s florida resort with the tech billionaire. by stephen castle one of the last centrist leaders left on the global stage, prime minister keir starmer this week outlined his plan to deliver change for people in the u.k. will it be enough? by mark landler and stephen castle in his memoir, “unleashed,” the former prime minister is “optimistic” about the possibility that donald j. trump could regain the white house. by mark landler nigel farage, a trump ally and brexit champion, thinks reform u.k. can become a major political force. at a conference on friday, he sought to explain how. by stephen castle brexit and immigration upended their 14 year reign   setting the stage for a pitched battle to remake british conservatism. by mark landler extra police officers were mobilized across the country, but by wednesday evening, there were no signs of large far right protests. by megan specia and stephen castle
supported by at britain’s last election, the tories laid claim to a swath of postindustrial england. now voters there are returning to labour, and the insurgent reform u.k. is also rising. by mark landler reporting from bolsover, shirebrook and clowne, england on a hilltop next to a vast limestone quarry in england’s east midlands, a crowd of about 60 people gathered last thursday evening to witness the lighting of a beacon to mark the 80th anniversary of the d day landings. amid the drab parkas and pullovers was a figure in a striking red coat: natalie fleet, the labour party’s candidate for parliament, wearing her party’s campaign color. she turned up late, having hiked up in heels. but she mixed easily, chatting with a 17 year old high school student, georgia haslam, about her desire to get more young women engaged in politics. “it was reassuring to hear someone like her say, ‘i understand you,’” ms. haslam said afterward. “if you’re not from a city, if you’re not wealthy, it’s not clear that these politicians really care about you.” ms. fleet is on track to win back the parliamentary district of bolsover for labour, which in 2019 it lost to the conservatives for the first time in almost 70 years. her appearance at the d day commemoration was a telling contrast to the conservative prime minister, rishi sunak, who skipped out of d day ceremonies in france the same day to return to london, drawing a torrent of criticism. and the labour party isn’t even the only headache for the tories, three weeks before britain’s general election on july 4. in this hard bitten region of abandoned coal mines and shuttered steel mills, the insurgent party reform u.k. is mounting an unexpectedly robust challenge. it could siphon off enough votes from the conservatives here to leapfrog into second place, after labour.

 a tour of britain’s provincial towns reveals a restless nation with no love for its political class. ai generated text to speech london   britain’s labour party swept to a stunning victory friday, almost matching tony blair’s record landslide in 1997. the world is watching, open mouthed: what happened there? keir starmer’s victory   and the collapse of the post brexit tory coalition   rippled across the atlantic as a rare breakthrough for traditional centrist politics in yet another season of populist upheaval. at first glance, the outcome appears to stand in stark contrast to the elections underway in the united states, where president joe biden is straining to stabilize his candidacy against donald trump, and france, where president emmanuel macron’s centrist faction is polling in third place against far left and far right rivals. third way, a centrist american think tank, composed a memo analyzing the election results as a “victory for ruthless competence,” holding up starmer’s campaign as a model for other center left leaders confronting right wing nationalism. for this is not a story of britain lurching to the left.