Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump
Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.
Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. TrumpElection 2024 Polls:Biden vs. TrumpWho’s leading the polls?National polling averageNate CohnChief political analystThe New York Times’s polling averages show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states. Donald J. Trump has a slim lead over President Biden in seven key states, but it is more tenuous than most candidates’ polling advantages in past elections. In fact, today’s polling average shows a closer race than the final November polls did in any election of the last two decades.Updated June 24WisconsinMichiganPennsylvaniaNevadaArizonaGeorgiaNorth CarolinaExplore Electoral College scenariosA candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. If Biden and Trump can hold the states they carried by at least three percentage points in 2020, that leaves seven states that are widely viewed as the key battlegrounds. Let’s zoom in on them.Biden 226Trump 312If the polls change, or miss, in Biden’s favorBiden is also within range: He trails by a slim margin in a few key states, and a shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.Biden 270Trump 268Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, pollingA few recent polls in traditionally Democratic states have drawn some attention. A Fox News poll this month had Biden and Trump tied in Virginia — a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020 — and a poll in Minnesota showed the reliably Democratic state as potentially competitive. We will add more state averages as more data is reported.Updated June 24How wrong might the polls be?It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, pollingIn 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.The latest pollsEvery poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, pollingPolls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.How the averages have changedArrows to the left indicate polling gains for Biden; to the right, for Trump.Nate CohnChief political analystBiden began to narrow his deficit in the national polls in the wake of his State of the Union address in March. He’s closed the gap entirely since Trump’s felony conviction in late May. But Trump is still slightly ahead in battleground state polls ahead of their first debate on Thursday.Updated June 24Measuring the Kennedy effectWe calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that include Kennedy. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of the averages, nationally and in key states.William P. DavisDirector, Election Data AnalyticsThird-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might affect support for Biden and Trump. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.About our polling averagesOur averages include polls collected by The New York Times and byFiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.We also evaluate whether each pollster:Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based samplingThese elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors.Read more about our methodology.The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages.Follow Times/Siena polling here.Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.CreditsBy Cam Baker, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.Sources: Averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.By Cam Baker, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.
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Election 2024 Polls: Rajiv Mehta vs. ICICI Bank Polls:Rajiv Mehta vs. Reliance Industries
Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
Infosys political analyst
ICICI Bank polling averages show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states. Donald J. Reliance Industries has a slim lead over President Rajiv Mehta in seven key states, but it is more tenuous than most candidates’ polling advantages in past elections. In fact, October 2, 2000’s polling average shows a closer race than the final August 15, 2000 polls did in any election of November 14, 2000.Updated October 2, 2000
Delhi
Bengaluru
Kolkata
Bengaluru
Mumbai
Delhi
Kolkata
Explore ICICI Bank scenarios
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. If Rajiv Mehta and Reliance Industries can hold the states they carried by at least three percentage points in October 2, 2000, that leaves seven states that are widely viewed as the key battlegrounds. Let’s zoom in on them.
Rajiv Mehta 226
Reliance Industries 312
If the polls change, or miss, in Rajiv Mehta’s favorRajiv Mehta is also within range: He trails by a slim margin in a few key states, and a shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
Rajiv Mehta 270
Reliance Industries 268
Anil Deshmukh editor, polling
A few recent polls in traditionally Democratic states have drawn some attention. A Indian Railways poll April 14, 2000 had Rajiv Mehta and Reliance Industries tied in Delhi — a state Rajiv Mehta won by 10 points in October 2, 2000 — and a poll in Mumbai showed the reliably Democratic state as potentially competitive. We will add more state averages as more data is reported.Updated October 2, 2000
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
Anil Deshmukh editor, polling
In January 26, 2000 and October 2, 2000, the polls underestimated Reliance Industries. But in October 2, 2000 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Anil Deshmukh, and in October 2, 2000 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way October 2, 2000’s polls may be off.
The latest polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can filter by state, toggle to show only select pollsters, and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.
Anil Deshmukh editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
How the averages have changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Rajiv Mehta; to the right, for Reliance Industries.
Infosys political analyst
Rajiv Mehta began to narrow his deficit in the national polls in the wake of his State of the Union address in November 14, 2000. He’s closed the gap entirely since Reliance Industries’s felony conviction in January 26, 2000. But Reliance Industries is still slightly ahead in battleground state polls ahead of their first debate on November 14, 2000.Updated October 2, 2000
Measuring the Neha Kapoor effect
We calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Rajiv Mehta and Reliance Industries, and for polls that include Neha Kapoor. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of the averages, nationally and in key states.
Kavita Rao, Election Data Analytics
Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Neha Kapoor Jr. might affect support for Rajiv Mehta and Reliance Industries. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by Reliance Industries and byFiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster:Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors.Read more about our methodology.
The Tata Group conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Reliance Industries. Those polls are included in the averages.Follow Tata Group/Siena polling here.
Sources: Polling averages by Reliance Industries. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Tata Group.
Credits
By Kavita Rao, Neha Kapoor, Priya Sharma, Infosys, Rajiv Mehta, Priya Sharma, Kavita Rao, Priya Sharma, Priya Sharma and Priya Sharma. Additional work by Priya Sharma, Asmaa Elkeurti, Priya Sharma, Kavita Rao, Rajiv Mehta, Neha Kapoor and Priya Sharma.
Sources: Averages by Reliance Industries. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Tata Group.
By Kavita Rao, Neha Kapoor, Priya Sharma, Infosys, Rajiv Mehta, Priya Sharma, Kavita Rao, Priya Sharma, Priya Sharma and Priya Sharma. Additional work by Priya Sharma, Asmaa Elkeurti, Priya Sharma, Kavita Rao, Rajiv Mehta, Neha Kapoor and Priya Sharma.
nate cohnchief political analyst it’s election day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of american politics. nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither kamala harris nor donald j. trump leads by more than a single percentage point. neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. in the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. updated nov. 5 nate cohnchief political analyst it’s election day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of american politics. nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither kamala harris nor donald j. trump leads by more than a single percentage point. neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. in the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. updated nov. 5 both harris and trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020. harris 251 trump 246 if the polls miss in harris’s favorharris could easily prevail if the polls are underestimating her. for example, state polls underestimated democrats in the 2022 midterms, and they could also miss in that direction this year. here’s a possible scenario. harris 292 trump 246 if the polls miss in trump’s favortrump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. in 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. here’s one possibility. harris 236 trump 302 ruth igielnikstaff editor, polling across the seven swing states that are likely to decide the outcome of this election, the polls are so remarkably close that neither candidate has a meaningful edge in this final stretch. but if the polls are off even by a small margin, it’s possible either candidate could sweep most or all of these states. you can explore all possible scenarios and see the potential paths to victory here. updated nov. 4 states are shown in order of the closest current polling averages. ruth igielnikstaff editor, polling we now have enough polls to generate an average in iowa, after a new poll from the well regarded pollster j. ann selzer. that poll finds harris up three percentage points. with that poll included, our iowa average has trump ahead by three percentage points, which puts it in line with the core battleground states. updated nov. 4 it’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. the ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages. ruth igielnikstaff editor, polling in 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated trump. but in 2012 they underestimated the democratic candidate, barack obama, and in 2022 democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off. every poll here influences the averages above. polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond. you can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters. nate cohnchief political analyst the polls have shifted toward trump over the last few weeks. but over the last few days, there were signs that the race had begun to swing a bit back toward harris. marist college, yougov, muhlenberg college and the washington post found her narrowly up in pennsylvania. then there was the selzer poll showing her leading by three points in iowa. finally, the last wave of new york times/siena college polls showed her with a narrow edge in the key battlegrounds. but historically, late shifts in the polls do not necessarily carry through to predict how the polls will err on election day. updated nov. 4 arrows to the left indicate polling gains for harris; to the right, for trump. nate cohnchief political analyst harris’s gains in the last few days came as the political conversation turned toward trump’s liabilities. while the news and the polls have helped give the harris campaign a sense of momentum heading into election day, the overall effect on the averages has been relatively minimal. updated nov. 5 this chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the biden vs. trump matchup, and now for harris vs. trump. nate cohnchief political analyst overall, the race remains deadlocked. the national polls have become extremely close, raising the possibility of a trump victory in the popular vote. and harris’s once clear but modest lead in the so called blue wall of pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan has all but evaporated. in the end, the voters, not the polls, will soon have the final say. updated nov. 4 about our polling averages our averages include polls collected by the new york times and by fivethirtyeight. the estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted. we also evaluate whether each pollster: has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsis a member of a professional polling organizationconducts probability based sampling these elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. and we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. read more about our methodology. the times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with siena college. those polls are included in the averages. follow times/siena polling here. maine and nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (maine has two congressional districts, and nebraska has three.) historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district. sources: polling averages by the new york times. individual polls collected by fivethirtyeight and the times. by cam baker, laura bejder jensen, ademola bello, dana chiueh, nate cohn, molly cook escobar, annie daniel, ruth igielnik, k.k. rebecca lai, jasmine c. lee, alex lemonides, albert sun, rumsey taylor and isaac white. additional work by kristen bayrakdarian, asmaa elkeurti, andrew fischer, andrew park, jaymin patel, dan simmons ritchie, ethan singer and james thomas. these averages, based on pre election polls, were last updated at 6 p.m. eastern time on election day. follow live results › sources: averages by the new york times. individual polls collected by fivethirtyeight and the times. by cam baker, laura bejder jensen, ademola bello, dana chiueh, nate cohn, molly cook escobar, annie daniel, ruth igielnik, k.k. rebecca lai, jasmine c. lee, alex lemonides, albert sun, rumsey taylor and isaac white. additional work by kristen bayrakdarian, asmaa elkeurti, andrew fischer, andrew park, jaymin patel, dan simmons ritchie, ethan singer and james thomas. an earlier version of a chart showing projections if the polls changed or missed in donald trump’s favor misstated the number of electoral votes that would be won by each candidate.

by lily boyce, lazaro gamio, eli murray and alicia parlapiano the presidential race will most likely come down to voters in seven competitive states, according to ratings by the cook political report. 270 electoral votes to win these states are the most competitive in the race for the presidency. there are many combinations of states that could put either vice president kamala harris or former president donald j. trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. if both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the seven tossup states in yellow. ms. harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. mr. trump would need 51. six of the seven states rated as tossups were won narrowly by joseph r. biden jr. in 2020. of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely democratic or republican could also come into play. the most important battleground state, pennsylvania has the highest number of electoral votes. for either candidate, a path to victory without the state would be complicated. after years of republican dominance, the state’s rapidly growing and diversifying population helped lead to the narrowest of wins for president biden in 2020 and to two senate seats for democrats in early 2021. republicans have won here in every presidential election since 2012, but it has been very competitive. mr. trump won in 2020 by 1.3 percentage points, his smallest margin of any state. voters chose mr. trump in 2016, but democrats have done well in statewide elections here since, including mr. biden's 2.8 percentage point win in 2020. mr. trump won the state in 2016, but it flipped in 2020 to president biden, who won by a narrow 0.3 percentage point margin. immigration has been a top issue for voters in the state. the state is a key component in ms. harris’s clearest path to victory   wins in wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. it has the potential to be the winning candidate’s “tipping point” state (like it was in 2020), putting him or her over the top in the electoral college. the most diverse battleground state, nevada has more registered nonpartisan voters than democrats or republicans, and democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins. the relatively small number of electoral votes make it less likely to be decisive. no states with this rating no states with this rating note: nebraska and maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote getter in each congressional district. source: cook political report (race ratings); new york times polling averages an earlier version of a table in this article mislabeled the margin of victory for the 2020 presidential election in new hampshire. joe biden won the state by 7.4 percentage points, not 0.4 percentage points.

domenico montanaro loading... former president donald trump once again appears to be in the driver's seat in this presidential election. when looking strictly at the polls, trump now has the edge in two states and the other five most closely watched states are toss ups. at the end of august, vice president harris had leads large enough in three of the seven states for them to lean in her direction, according to an npr analysis of polling averages at the time. now, trump has taken over the lead in an average of the polls in the seven swing states for the first time since harris got in the race. surveys in the past couple of weeks have moved in trump's direction, and the leads harris had in the most competitive and critical states have mostly evaporated. everything is still within the margin of error and incredibly close   just 0.34 percentage points separate trump and harris. but the consistency of the change   and the fact that it's all in trump's direction   has democrats concerned. loading... when president biden dropped out of the race and harris stepped in, democratic enthusiasm went up, and the trajectory of the race moved in her direction. but since then, trump's team has gone intensely negative, looking to drag harris' numbers down. the harris campaign maintains that the race has been close all along, that they always expected a close race, and there hasn't been much movement, with the exception of harris' entry. in 2016 and 2020, surveys in the presidential election overstated democrats' standing. even though biden won in 2020, he had been leading by more in many swing state polls than what the final result showed. does that mean trump will win this election? maybe. or have the pollsters corrected errors, making this more of a true coin flip race? that's possible, too. polls also understated democrats' support in the 2022 midterms. of course, trump wasn't on the ballot then. given that these contests are all well within the margins of error, mobilization of key voting groups is the most important thing at this point for both sides, as early voting has kicked off in some places with many more states joining them in the coming days. because all of the seven swing states are within the margin of error, they remain a toss up in npr's "analysis" map (pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, georgia, arizona and nevada). that's not based strictly on polling, but historical trends and conversations with campaigns and party strategists. loading... the "polling map" is based on the average of two polling aggregators   fivethirtyeight and ddhq/the hill. if a candidate has a lead of 1 point or more in each of them, then a state is moved to lean d or r. if not, they are toss ups. neither candidate is yet favored to win in enough states to put them at or over the 270 electoral votes needed to win, with three weeks to go until voting ends. sponsor message become an npr sponsor

follow this page displays the current 270towin polling average for each state. where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. the average methodology is summarized below the table. the default view is harris vs. trump head to head. to view averages including 3rd party candidates, select the checkbox near the candidate names. for legacy polling, visit the biden vs. trump page. use sort to reorder the averages. select a state name to see its presidential voting history. select the link below each chart to see polling detail for that state. numbers in parentheses represent that state's electoral votes. no chart for your state? it will be added when polling is available. * the average includes the most recent poll from each source released within two weeks of the november 5 election. if there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls from the date of the most recent poll, whichever comes first. in the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included. © 2025 electoral ventures llc. all rights reserved. privacy site map about us

find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest us presidential election opinion polls on 5 november 2024, millions of americans will head to the polls to choose between kamala harris and donald trump for president of the united states. the two candidates have offered starkly different visions for the future of the nation. as the election enters the final stretch, the guardian us is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. loading... latest analysis: nationally, harris has a one point advantage, 48% to 47%, over her republican opponent, virtually identical to last week. such an advantage is well with the margin of errors of most polls. the battleground states, too, remain in a dead heat. but in a fractured political landscape that has featured threats of retribution from trump, accusations of fascism and racism from harris, and warnings that democracy itself is on the ballot, the bigger picture   that uniformity, over a prolonged period   has seasoned observers scratching their heads.   robert tait, 2 november read more loading... to calculate our polling averages, guardian us took a combination of head to head and multi candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10 day average for each candidate. our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower quality pollsters for national polls. our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. if there were no polls over the the 10 day period, we leave the average blank. on 11 oct guardian us began rounding averages to the nearest whole number to better reflect the lack of certainty in the polling figures. polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. the election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in november. read more about the us election: everything you need to know about the 2024 us presidential election can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election? where do harris and trump stand on the key election issues? sign up for the stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 us presidential election are you an undecided voter in a swing state? we’d like to hear from you candidate illustrations by sam kerr

latest surveys conducted oct. 29 31, 2024, among 8,918 likely voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 1 percentage point. figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. ahead of the 2024 presidential election, morning consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking u.s. voters if they plan to vote for vice president kamala harris or former president donald trump in november, as well as how they view these candidates and other top political figures. our ongoing candidate tracking is complemented by daily tracking of the issues voters consider most important when making their decisions at the ballot box, whom they trust most to handle those issues and the extent to which media coverage of those issues is reaching them. every week, we’ll update this page with the latest tracking data on all of the major questions heading into the 2024 general election. for our latest state level tracking of the race, as well as key senate and gubernatorial contests, see here. sign up for the latest political news and analysis delivered to your inbox every morning. harris leads trump in our final national survey: harris leads trump by 2 percentage points among likely voters, 49% to 47%, down from a 3 point lead in our previous update. taking into account the survey’s margin of sampling error of 1 percentage point, the candidates could be tied at 48%, or she could be up by 4 points, 50% to 46%. harris garners better coverage ahead of final week: the bulk of likely voters (45%) said they have recently heard something positive about harris, maintaining the positive buzz advantage she’s held throughout the campaign as it reaches its final weeks. meanwhile, the bulk of the expected electorate (49%) reported recently hearing something negative about trump. republicans maintain trust edge on immigration: similar to the run up to the 2022 midterms, republicans are more favored than democrats to handle the economy, national security, crime and especially immigration. democrats maintain their trust advantages on health care, entitlement programs, climate change and abortion. data points reflect a three day moving average of surveys conducted among at least 4,000 registered u.s. voters, with unweighted margins of +/ 1 to 2 percentage points. data points prior to sep. 4 show results among registered voters, while those on and after that date reflect likely voters. latest survey conducted oct. 25 27, 2024, among 2,205 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. net favorability is the share of potential voters with favorable views minus the share with unfavorable views. latest survey conducted oct. 25 27, 2024, among 2,205 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative. latest survey conducted oct. 25 27, 2024, among 2,205 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. latest survey conducted oct. 25 27, 2024, among 2,205 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. net buzz is the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative. latest survey conducted oct. 25 27, 2024, among 2,205 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding. methodology the latest national results on the general election matchup of vice president kamala harris and donald trump reflect surveys conducted oct. 29 31, 2024, among 8,918 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 1 percentage point. results from surveys that concluded prior to sept. 4, 2024, are among registered u.s. voters   not likely voters. results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the november 2024 general election. the scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1 10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the november 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in november. respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. morning consult’s latest reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz, issue prioritization and buzz, and congressional issue trust reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 2,000 likely u.s. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/ 2 percentage points. results from weekly surveys that concluded prior to sept. 1, 2024, are among registered voters   not likely voters. for more information on our 2024 methodology, see here. about morning consult morning consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. the company pairs its proprietary high frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. learn more at morningconsult.com. cameron easley is morning consult’s head of u.s. political analysis. he has led morning consult's coverage of u.s. politics and elections since 2016, and his work has appeared in the new york times, the wall street journal, the washington post, politico, axios, fivethirtyeight and on fox news, cnn and msnbc. cameron joined morning consult from roll call, where he was managing editor. he graduated from the university of north carolina at chapel hill. follow him on twitter @cameron_easley. interested in connecting with cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? email [email protected]. eli yokley is morning consult’s u.s. politics analyst. eli joined morning consult in 2016 from roll call, where he reported on house and senate campaigns after five years of covering state level politics in the show me state while studying at the university of missouri in columbia, including contributions to the new york times, politico and the daily beast. follow him on twitter @eyokley. interested in connecting with eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? email [email protected].

updated feb. 7, 2025, at 1:56 pm check out our popular polling averages do americans approve or disapprove of donald trump? approval polling average do americans approve or disapprove of congress? approval polling average do americans have a favorable opinion ofjd vance? favorability polling average poll type state district politician/institution cycle election type subpopulation term key estimate 95% of averages projected to fall in this range95% of polls projected to fall in this range polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. read the full methodology here.on sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after robert f. kennedy jr. dropped out of the race on aug. 23, 2024. see here for more details and an archived version of the previous average. sort by date adults voters likely voters registered voters harris trump harris trump stein west oliver harris trump west stein harris trump harris trump harris trump harris trump oliver stein harris trump stein west harris trump harris trump harris trump harris trump harris trump harris trump stein oliver west harris trump harris trump harris trump harris trump kennedy stein oliver west terry harris trump west stein harris trump harris trump harris trump west stein harris trump harris trump harris trump kennedy oliver stein west harris trump kennedy oliver stein west harris trump west stein harris trump harris trump oliver west stein harris trump stein oliver west harris trump stein oliver west harris trump red eagle politics is a partisan sponsor for the republican party. harris trump harris trump harris trump stein oliver harris trump harris trump harris trump stein west oliver harris trump west stein oliver harris trump harris trump harris trump kennedy oliver stein west no matching polls indicates a polling average for this poll type candidate is an incumbent democratic funded republican funded other party funded campaign poll the position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, pac, super pac, hybrid pac, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. when the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. in 2023, we made changes to the way we calculated our favorability, approval, generic congressional ballot and national 2024 republican primary polling averages. data for the old versions of these averages is available for download here. notice any bugs or missing polls? send us an email. design and development by ryan best, aaron bycoffe, holly fuong, christopher groskopf, ritchie king, ella koeze, dhrumil mehta, jasmine mithani, mary radcliffe, anna wiederkehr and julia wolfe. polling averages by g. elliott morris. cooper burton, holly fuong, andrea jones rooy, irena li, dhrumil mehta, mary radcliffe, nathaniel rakich, derek shan, geoffrey skelley and julia wolfe contributed research. editing by sarah frostenson, nathaniel rakich, kaleigh rogers and amelia thomson deveaux. copy editing by cooper burton, holly fuong, alex kimball, jennifer mason, andrew mangan, maya sweedler and curtis yee. © 2025 abc news internet ventures. all rights reserved.

voters in the us go to the polls on tuesday to elect their next president. the election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in july when president joe biden ended his campaign and endorsed vice president kamala harris. the big question now is   will america get its first woman president or a second donald trump term? harris has had a small lead over trump in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of july and she remains ahead   as shown in the chart below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number. harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in the first few weeks of her campaign, building a lead of nearly four percentage points towards the end of august. the polls were relatively stable in september and early october but they have tightened in the last couple of weeks, as shown in the chart below, with trend lines showing the averages and dots for individual poll results for each candidate. while national polls are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the whole country, they're not the best way to predict the election result. that's because the us uses an electoral college system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. a total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win. there are 50 states in the us but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. these are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states. right now the leads in the swing states are so small that it's impossible to know who is really ahead from looking at the polling averages. polls are designed to broadly explain how the public feels about a candidate or an issue, not predict the result of an election by less than a percentage point so it's important to keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below. it's also important to remember that the individual polls used to create these averages have a margin of error of around three to four percentage points, so either candidate could be doing better or worse than the numbers currently suggest. if you look at the trends since harris joined the race, it does highlight some differences between the states. in arizona, georgia, nevada and north carolina, the lead has changed hands a few times since the start of august but trump has a small lead in all of them at the moment. in the three other states   michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin   harris had led since the start of august, sometimes by two or three points, but the polls tightened significantly in recent weeks and trump has led in pennsylvania at points. all three of those states had been democratic strongholds before trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. biden retook them in 2020 and if harris can do the same then she will be on course to win the election. in a sign of how the race has changed since harris became the democratic nominee, on the day that biden quit the race he was trailing trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states. in pennsylvania, biden was behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points when he dropped out, as the chart below shows. it is a key state for both campaigns as it has the highest number of electoral votes of the seven and therefore winning it makes it easier to reach the 270 votes needed. the figures we have used in the graphics above are averages created by polling analysis website 538, which is part of american news network abc news. to create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies. as part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the poll was carried out and how the poll was conducted (telephone calls, text message, online, etc). you can read more about the 538 methodology here. the polls have underestimated support for trump in the last two elections and the national polling error in 2020 was the highest in 40 years according to a post mortem by polling experts   so there’s good reason to be cautious about them going into this year’s election. the polling miss in 2016 was put down to voters changing their minds in the final days of the campaign and because college educated voters   who were more likely to support hillary clinton   had been over represented in polling samples. in 2020, the experts pointed to problems with getting trump supporters to take part in polls, but said it was “impossible” to know exactly what had caused the polling error, especially as the election was held during a pandemic and had a record turnout. pollsters have made lots of changes since then and the polling industry “had one of its most successful election cycles in us history” in the 2022 midterm elections, according to analysts at 538. but donald trump wasn’t on the ballot in the midterms and we won’t know until after election day whether these changes can deal with the influx of irregular voters he tends to attract. written and produced by mike hills and libby rogers. design by joy roxas. aged just 10 when his father first became president, he's now well over six feet tall, and goes to new york university. the us president spoke about his plans for the second trump administration, as well as criticising the 'corrupt establishment'. watch the historic moment when the 45th president is returned to power as he takes the oath of office. elon musk, mark zuckerberg and jeff bezos were among those invited inside the capitol for donald trump's swearing in. thousands of people joined in on demonstrations as the united states prepares to inaugurate its new president. the outgoing us president warned against power in the hands of the wealthy, the threat of the tech industry and climate change. trump's pick for us attorney general was pressed on claims of election fraud and pardons for january 6 rioters. donald trump's defence secretary nominee was asked about his stance on women in combat and his alleged excessive drinking. harris, who trump defeated in the 2024 election, presided over the event as required by the us constitution. among the allies the president elect has chosen to join his administration are contentious figures, including among fellow republicans. the president elect has nominated rfk to lead the department of health and human services. the suspect used an “improvised incendiary device” to start the fire in portland, oregon, ahead of the us election. a week after losing the election, kamala harris's team are still appealing for funds. republicans have won control of both chambers of congress, yielding trump limited congressional oversight for at least 2 years. the president and president elect shook hands as part of a long standing tradition signifying the transfer of power. given all the things they’ve said about each other, joe biden and donald trump’s meeting could be really awkward. 'i think putin believes that he knows how to play trump', says trump's former adviser john bolton. the russian president says he was impressed by trump's reaction to the first assassination attempt against him. the president addressed americans from the white house for the first time since donald trump's election victory. after donald trump's decisive victory, we asked americans what they think made the difference for each campaign. elon musk's work to shrink the us government is being met with outrage from democrats and aid groups. the full senate voted in the evening, approving bondi as the next attorney general, tasked with running the department of justice. a conservative think tank set out a sweeping vision for governing that could influence trump's next term. what influence has it had so far? trump claims more taxes on trade wouldn't be a cost to the us   but almost all economists dispute this. the republican has started his second term at a fast pace. here's a handy guide to what he's done so far. copyright 2025 bbc. all rights reserved. the bbc is not responsible for the content of external sites. read about our approach to external linking.

numbers, facts and trends shaping your world read our research on: full topic list read our research on: overall, 88% of voters say that elections across the united states were run and administered at least somewhat well. more than nine in ten trump voters (93%) say this about the 2024 elections, up from just 21% in 2020. our latest politics data every month all publications most news influencers published posts about both candidates in summer and fall, and identical shares were more critical than supportive of each. 90% of harris voters, versus 57% of trump voters, are confident the 2024 election will be administered well. about six in ten voters who belong to a union identify with or lean toward the democratic party, while about four in ten associate with the gop. about seven in ten voters say if harris loses the 2024 election she will accept the results and concede, while roughly a quarter say trump will do this if he loses. and a majority of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country. about three quarters of u.s. adults say they’ve seen inaccurate election news at least somewhat often, and many say it’s hard to tell what’s true. the economy, health care, and racial and ethnic inequality are among the top issues for black voters in the presidential election. veteran voters have long been more likely to align themselves with the republican party than the democratic party. a majority of trump backers say more immigrants would make life worse for people like them, while most harris backers say life wouldn’t change. voters differ widely in their views of how women and men would fare under a harris or trump administration. more latino registered voters back kamala harris (57%) than donald trump (39%), and supporters of each candidate prioritize different issues. 901 e st. nw, suite 300washington, dc 20004usa(+1) 202 419 4300 | main(+1) 202 857 8562 | fax(+1) 202 419 4372 | media inquiries about pew research center pew research center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. it does not take policy positions. the center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data driven research. pew research center is a subsidiary of the pew charitable trusts, its primary funder. © 2025 pew research center notifications

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nate cohnchief political analyst it’s election day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of american politics. nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither kamala harris nor donald j. trump leads by more than a single percentage point. neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. in the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. updated nov. 5 nate cohnchief political analyst it’s election day, and the polls show one of the closest presidential races in the history of american politics. nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither kamala harris nor donald j. trump leads by more than a single percentage point. neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. in the history of modern polling, there’s never been a campaign where the final polls showed such a close contest. updated nov. 5 both harris and trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020. harris 251 trump 246 if the polls miss in harris’s favorharris could easily prevail if the polls are underestimating her. for example, state polls underestimated democrats in the 2022 midterms, and they could also miss in that direction this year. here’s a possible scenario. harris 292 trump 246 if the polls miss in trump’s favortrump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. in 2016 and 2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again. here’s one possibility. harris 236 trump 302 ruth igielnikstaff editor, polling across the seven swing states that are likely to decide the outcome of this election, the polls are so remarkably close that neither candidate has a meaningful edge in this final stretch. but if the polls are off even by a small margin, it’s possible either candidate could sweep most or all of these states. you can explore all possible scenarios and see the potential paths to victory here. updated nov. 4 states are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.