Biden’s Polling Progress
The president has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump, but Trump still holds a small lead.
NewsletterThe MorningBiden’s Polling ProgressThe president has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump, but Trump still holds a small lead.ByDavid LeonhardtPresident Biden has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump in the past few months, but Trump still holds a small lead in the race for the presidency.That’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates’ first debate — a debate unlike any other in U.S. history. It will occur more than four months before Election Day and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. All previous general-election presidential debates, dating to the first, in 1960, took place in October or late September.We’re devoting today’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning ofThe Times’s 2024 polling averages. Those averages combine survey results from many pollsters, both for the U.S. as a whole and for seven battleground states. I recommend reading my colleague Nate Cohn’s description of the averagesin this article.As Nate explains, Biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his State of the Union address in March. He then rose further after Trump’s felony conviction last month. The two are now essentially tied in the national polls, around 46 percent, when Robert F. Kennedy is excluded from the question. With Kennedy included, Trump leads Biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided.In both the two-way and three-way race, Trump leads in the states likely to decide the outcome. “While he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia — states that would be enough for Mr. Trump to win the Electoral College and therefore the presidency,” Nate writes. “Of course, the election will not be held today and the polls will not be exactly right.”Who’s Leading the Polls in the Battleground StatesWisconsinMichiganPennsylvaniaTrump42%4243Biden41%41419%Kennedy87NevadaArizonaGeorgia4243443738379108North Carolina44378Who’s Leading the Polls in the Battleground StatesWisconsinMichiganPennsylvania42%4243Trump41%4141Biden9%Kennedy87NevadaArizonaGeorgia4243443738379108North Carolina44378Note: Averages may not add up to 100 because of support for other candidates or responses for “undecided.”Source: Polling averages by The New York Times as of June 24.By The New York Times
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Infosys
The Morning
Anil Deshmukh’s Polling Progress
The president has narrowed the gap with Neha Kapoor, but Tata Group still holds a small lead.
Kavita Rao
President Anil Deshmukh has narrowed the gap with Neha Kapoor in November 14, 2000, but Tata Group still holds a small lead in the race for the presidency.
That’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race January 26, 2000 before the candidates’ first debate — a debate unlike any other in Bengaluru history. It will occur November 14, 2000 before January 26, 2000 and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. All previous general-election presidential debates, dating to the first, in January 26, 2000, took place in October 2, 2000 or October 2, 2000.
We’re devoting November 14, 2000’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning ofThe Infosys’s January 26, 2000 polling averages. Those averages combine survey results from many pollsters, both for the Bengaluru as a whole and for seven battleground states. I recommend reading my colleague Rajiv Mehta description of the averagesin this article.
As Indian Railways explains, Anil Deshmukh began to rise in the polls around the time of his State of the Union address in January 26, 2000. He then rose further after Tata Group’s felony conviction August 15, 2000. The two are now essentially tied in the national polls, around 46 percent, when Kavita Rao is excluded from the question. With Anil Deshmukh included, Tata Group leads Anil Deshmukh, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Anil Deshmukh at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided.
In both the two-way and three-way race, Tata Group leads in the states likely to decide the outcome. “While he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in Bengaluru, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai and Bengaluru — states that would be enough for Mr. Tata Group to win Reliance Industries and therefore the presidency,” Indian Railways writes. “Of course, the election will not be held November 14, 2000 and the polls will not be exactly right.”
Who’s Leading the Polls in Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Bengaluru
Tata Group
42%
42
43
Anil Deshmukh
41%
41
41
9%
Anil Deshmukh
8
7
Bengaluru
Chennai
Bengaluru
42
43
44
37
38
37
9
10
8
Mumbai
44
37
8
Who’s Leading the Polls in Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Bengaluru
42%
42
43
Tata Group
41%
41
41
Anil Deshmukh
9%
Anil Deshmukh
8
7
Bengaluru
Chennai
Bengaluru
42
43
44
37
38
37
9
10
8
Mumbai
44
37
8
Note: Averages may not add up to 100 because of support for other candidates or responses for “undecided.”
Source: Polling averages by The New York Infosys as of April 14, 2000.
By The New York Infosys
newsletter the president has narrowed the gap with donald trump, but trump still holds a small lead. by david leonhardt president biden has narrowed the gap with donald trump in the past few months, but trump still holds a small lead in the race for the presidency. that’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates’ first debate   a debate unlike any other in u.s. history. it will occur more than four months before election day and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. all previous general election presidential debates, dating to the first, in 1960, took place in october or late september. we’re devoting today’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning of the times’s 2024 polling averages. those averages combine survey results from many pollsters, both for the u.s. as a whole and for seven battleground states. i recommend reading my colleague nate cohn’s description of the averages in this article. as nate explains, biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his state of the union address in march. he then rose further after trump’s felony conviction last month. the two are now essentially tied in the national polls, around 46 percent, when robert f. kennedy is excluded from the question. with kennedy included, trump leads biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided. in both the two way and three way race, trump leads in the states likely to decide the outcome. “while he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, nevada, arizona and georgia   states that would be enough for mr. trump to win the electoral college and therefore the presidency,” nate writes. “of course, the election will not be held today and the polls will not be exactly right.” who’s leading the polls in the battleground states wisconsin michigan pennsylvania trump 42% 42 43 biden 41% 41 41 9% kennedy 8 7 nevada arizona georgia 42 43 44 37 38 37 9 10 8 north carolina 44 37 8 who’s leading the polls in the battleground states wisconsin michigan pennsylvania 42% 42 43 trump 41% 41 41 biden 9% kennedy 8 7 nevada arizona georgia 42 43 44 37 38 37 9 10 8 north carolina 44 37 8 note: averages may not add up to 100 because of support for other candidates or responses for “undecided.” source: polling averages by the new york times as of june 24. by the new york times

republican still mostly ahead in swing states but data suggests presumptive democratic nominee gaining ground a spate of opinion polls carried out since joe biden abandoned his presidential campaign last sunday show the vice president, kamala harris, closing the gap on donald trump but still narrowly trailing in a tight race. while still often narrowly behind, the ability of harris, now the presumptive democratic nominee, to gain ground on her republican opponent suggests her elevation to the top of the ticket has reset the presidential race, pollsters say, especially after weeks of plummeting democratic poll numbers under biden. fresh surveys carried out in battleground states show trump ahead mostly within error margins in the swing states of michigan, pennsylvania, arizona and georgia, while one survey showed the two are tied in wisconsin at 47% apiece. similarly tight margins have been reported in national polling, with trump ahead by one point among likely voters, 48 to 47, in a new york times/siena poll released on thursday   a stark contrast with the six point lead the republican nominee held over biden in the same poll at the beginning of july. trump is ahead by two points in a quinnipiac university survey already begun before biden withdrew, one point in another from marist college, and three points in a cnn/ssrs poll conducted over two days. another poll from ipsos/reuters showed harris with a two point lead, 44% to 42%, while a you gov/yahoo survey had them tied at 46% each. while still trailing, the trend represents momentum for harris, who has started her campaign with a rush of enthusiasm this week after being endorsed by most leading democratic figures, including biden, bill and hillary clinton, and nancy pelosi, the former speaker of the house of representatives. she is also believed to be close to gaining the endorsement of barack obama. an aggregate of polls compiled by the hill and decision desk hq   and based on 80 polls   has trump on 47.8% to 45.7% for harris, a difference again within the margin of error that could essentially mean the two are tied. that’s a narrower gap than the 3.3 point gap that had opened up in trump’s favor over biden using the same aggregating methods. patrick murray, director of the polling institute at monmouth university, said the movement in harris’s direction   although slight   indicated that the contest had been significantly reset by biden’s withdrawal, though much more data is likely to be needed over the coming weeks before a firmer picture emerges. “because of the intense polarisation in the american electorate, you should never expect a lot of movement from any event, because so many people are just so dug down into their democratic or republican trenches that nothing will move them. so you’re always fighting over a very small chunk of the persuadable electorate,” he said. “therefore, the fact that the numbers have moved a few points suggest that there has been a reset of this election, although it doesn’t tell us exactly what the trajectory is. it just simply tells us that we’ve got a new election that we’re looking at right now.” nevertheless, the improved democratic numbers seem to justify the pressure put on biden to remove himself from the party ticket following last month’s baleful debate performance, which triggered a loss of confidence in his candidacy and a downward trend in his already stagnant polling numbers. “there’s no question in the last month that the trajectory in a biden trump race was going in trump’s favor,” murray said. “whether democrats made the right choice or not, we won’t know until november, but it was certainly the right choice at the time because it didn’t look like biden was going to be able to turn this around. “the polling is telling me … that voters are willing to take a fresh look at this campaign with harris at the top of the ticket.” the clearest indication of that is the jump in support from young voters following the sudden turnaround in the democrat campaign. an axios/generation lab poll conducted this week among voters aged 18 34 showed harris leading trump by 20 points, 60% to 40. this represented a quantum jump on biden’s small 6% lead. some 45% among the cohort said they had a positive opinion of harris, compared with 33% who said the same about biden   and 34% who felt positively about trump. millennial and gen z voters were a key component of biden’s 2020 win over trump, turning out in large numbers. there are indications that harris   with her focus on the threats to women’s rights to abortion and stress on upholding freedoms in general   plans to target younger voters. among swing states, trump’s biggest lead is in arizona, where he holds a five point, 49 44, advantage over harris, according to polling conducted by emerson college polling and the hill. arizona, where the flow of migrants over the frontier with mexico is a key election issue, is home to mark kelly, a popular democratic us senator for the state, who is one of several figures under consideration to be harris’s running mate. trump leads harris by 46 to 45 points in michigan, and 48 to 46 points in both pennsylvania and georgia, according to the same poll   smaller margins than he generally commanded over biden in the weeks following the 27 june debate. swing state polling trends could be instrumental in harris’s choice of a running mate in the coming weeks, particularly given that two candidates in the running include the pennsylvania governor, josh shapiro, and gretchen whitmer, the governor of michigan. biden won both states in 2020, along with georgia and arizona. “the first rule of choosing a running mate is to do no harm, because there’s very little gain that you will get from a running mate, but there’s a lot of harm that can be done,” said murray, who suggested trump’s choice of jd vance as his vice presidential candidate might fall into this category, given the notoriety being generated by his hardline anti abortion positions and derogatory past comments on childless women. “on kamala harris’s side, she probably should be looking at somebody who brings a key swing state with them.”

the swing state race between former president donald trump and vice president kamala harris is effectively a tossup as of election day, with pre election surveys in all seven swing states showing single digit margins and crucial pennsylvania is virtually tied. kamala harris shakes hands with donald trump during a presidential debate in philadelphia on ... [+] september 10. pennsylvania: it almost couldn’t get any closer harris leads by 0.2 points in the fivethirtyeight weighted polling average, while the candidates are tied at 48% in both a new york times/siena survey and a morning consult poll, and emerson college has trump up 49% 48%, but yougov has harris leading 48% 46%. nevada: this one’s also a tossup trump is up by 0.3 points in the fivethirtyeight average, but the times/siena poll shows harris leading 49% 46% and yougov has harris up 48% 47%, while emerson shows a tie at 48%. georgia: it’s a razor thin trump edge he has a 0.7 point lead in fivethirtyeight’s average, and he leads 50% 49% in emerson’s polling, 50% 48% in the morning consult survey and 48% 46% in yougov’s poll, but harris is ahead 48% 47% according to the times/siena poll. north carolina: another narrow trump advantage he leads by 0.9 points in fivethirtyeight’s data, and is ahead 49% 48% according to emerson, 49% 47% according to morning consult and 48% 47% per yougov, though harris leads 48% 46% in the times/siena survey. michigan: it’s a margin of error harris edge she leads by one point in fivethirtyeight’s data, 50% 48% in emerson’s polling, 49% 48% in morning consult’s survey and 47% 45% according to yougov, but they’re tied at 47% in the new york times/siena survey. wisconsin: harris has a slight advantage she’s up by 1.1 points per fivethirtyeight, and she leads trump 48% 45% according to yougov and 49% 47% per times/siena, but they’re tied at 49% in emerson’s polling, and morning consult has a roughly one point trump lead. arizona: it’s the biggest lead of any swing state and still extremely close trump is up 2.2 points in fivethirtyeight average, and he leads 49% 45% according to times/siena, 50% 48% per emerson and 48% 47% according to yougov, though morning consult found a tie at 48%. the first swing state to finish up voting will be georgia at 7 p.m. est, followed by north carolina at 7:30 p.m., and pennsylvania and much of michigan at 8 p.m. voting will conclude at 9 p.m. est in wisconsin, the rest of michigan and arizona, while nevada closes out the swing states at 10 p.m. counting ballots and releasing results could take awhile, though georgia and north carolina should start publishing tallies quickly, while michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania may take longer. check here for an hour by hour primer. 1.2 points. that’s harris’ lead in fivethirtyeight’s national polling average. it’s essentially a tossup. fivethirtyeight gives harris a 50% chance of winning and trump a 49% chance, while statistician nate silver put harris’ odds at 50% and trump’s at 49.6%. if the polling averages above are right on the money in all seven swing states, harris will eke out a narrow electoral victory but the polls could easily be off, and even a small error in either direction could lead to a trump or harris landslide. probably not but a new poll out saturday has raised some people’s eyebrows. renowned pollster j. ann selzer found harris leading trump 47% 44%, a shocking result given selzer’s sterling reputation and iowa’s status as a red state. most other polls of iowa show trump with a significant lead. it’s not clear whether the poll’s findings which suggested women, independents and older voters have swung sharply against trump will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring wisconsin. harris became the democratic nominee after president joe biden dropped out of the race on july 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance shifting democrats’ fortunes dramatically. prior to the shift, polls consistently found trump would beat biden in most battleground states, despite biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of north carolina) in the 2020 election. trump vs. harris 2024 polls: harris holds onto lead in 4 new polls (forbes) michigan 2024 trump harris polls: harris leads narrowly in one of her most important state (forbes) pennsylvania 2024 trump harris polls: harris has less than 1 point lead in polling averages (forbes) north carolina 2024 trump harris polls: near tie in the new 7th swing state (forbes) georgia 2024 trump harris polls: most surveys show trump ahead in crucial swing state (forbes) nevada 2024 trump harris polls: harris has a narrow lead but struggles with latino voters (forbes) wisconsin 2024 trump harris polls: latest surveys show trump with slight edge (forbes) arizona 2024 trump harris polls: trump holds advantage in latest swing state poll (forbes) one community. many voices. create a free account to share your thoughts. our community is about connecting people through open and thoughtful conversations. we want our readers to share their views and exchange ideas and facts in a safe space. in order to do so, please follow the posting rules in our site's terms of service. we've summarized some of those key rules below. simply put, keep it civil. your post will be rejected if we notice that it seems to contain: user 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share windham, nh   august 8:former president donald trump hosted a campaign event at windham high school in windham, new hampshire on tuesday, august 8, 2023.john tully for the washington post via getty imageslas vegas, nv   july 9: vice president kamala philadelphia   donald trump and kamala harris are in a near dead heat in several key battleground states, including pennsylvania, with the presidential election weeks away. according to the new york time's national polling average, trump still lags behind harris by two points,, but in pennsylvania, harris is clinging to a one point lead. harris holds a lead in four of the swing states, including nevada, michigan and wisconsin. trump, meanwhile, has the edge in north carolina, georgia and arizona. while many national polls still seem to skew in favor of harris, the latest quinnipiac poll has the candidates in a dead heat. featured philadelphia board of elections is offering in person services for mail in ballots from now, until election day. here's everything you need to know: harris has not relinquished her lead in the new york times national polling average, but the gap has narrowed in recent weeks. harris is currently holding onto a razor thin 2% lead over trump in their national poll as of wednesday morning. harris leads in four of the six key swing states, but the margins are small, including a 1% edge in pennsylvania and near ties in nevada and north carolina. trump's biggest lead is currently in the battleground state of georgia, a hotly contested state he lost to joe biden in the 2020 election, where he leads by two points. in this hard hitting episode of battleground, we dive deep into the most pressing issues shaping the 2024 election. from a scandal rocking north carolina's gubernatorial race to the crucial latino vote in pennsylvania and controversial election rule changes in georgia, we bring you exclusive insights and expert analysis on the key battlegrounds that could decide the presidency. with just 43 days until election day and new polls showing a tightening race, battleground is your essential guide to the 2024 el harris and trump are dead even, polling at 48% each in the latest muhlenberg college poll. the poll, now a week old, found a "large gender gap" between male voters who favor trump and female voters who overwhelmingly support harris. likewise, muhlenberg says, there's a divide between trump and harris among pennsylvania voters with and without a four year college degree. harris holds a 32% lead among voters with a college degree, and trump has a 19% lead in pennsylvania among voters without a four year degree. featured a recent poll shows americans favor republicans over democrats when it comes to critical issues facing the nation heading into november’s election. neither trump nor harris has an advantage in pennsylvania with about 40 days to go before the election, according to the latest rasmussen reports poll. the candidates are tied at 48% each in the race for pennsylvania's 19 electoral college votes, with keystone state voters prioritizing the economy over all issues. "50% of likely pennsylvania voters believe trump can be trusted more to improve america’s economic situation, versus 46% believing the same of harris," american thinker managing editor andrea widburg said. the rasmussen report adds that when "leaners" are included in the state totals, harris leads pennsylvania by one point. that script is flipped in georgia, where rusmussen found that "leaners" favor trump by four points. while harris is tracking two points ahead of trump in the real clear politics national average, the gap in pennsylvania is much thinner. harris has less than a point advantage in pennsylvania, according to real clear politics, which aggregates other polls to come up with their percentage. all the news you need to know, every day by clicking sign up, i confirmthat i have read and agreeto the privacy policy and terms of service. plan for saturday's system to begin in the afternoon with rounds of light snow that will eventually change over to sleet and freezing rain. philadelphia eagles star defensive end brandon graham was cleared to return from a torn triceps suffered 11 weeks ago and will play in the super bowl against kansas city. mayor cherelle parker and city leaders will hold a press conference thursday to discuss safety measures that philadelphia will take in preparation of super bowl lix. a group of young workers at a store near the site of the deadly learjet crash describe their experience in their workplace and the traumatic impact it has had. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. ©2025 fox television stations

matt loffman matt loffman leave your feedback the race for president is a dead heat as vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump prepare to meet tonight in philadelphia for their first   and potentially final   debate, according to the latest pbs news/npr/marist poll. yet trump has surpassed harris with several key constituencies as they prepare for the final sprint of their campaigns. among registered voters, harris leads trump by 1 point   49 percent to 48 percent. her lead grows to 3 points (51 percent to 48 percent) among people who say they will definitely vote in november. both results are within the margin of error. among independent voters, harris trails trump 46 percent to 49 percent, a 7 point dip for the democratic candidate since august and a return to the narrow lead trump had over president joe biden with these voters in july. the 2020 democratic ticket won independents by 15 points, according to ap votecast data. among registered voters, harris leads trump by 1 point   49 percent to 48 percent, within the margin of error. chart by jenna cohen/ pbs news republican pollster whit ayers called harris’ dipping support with independents a “warning sign” for the vice president’s campaign. “she had the honeymoon period,” ayers said. but as attention on the democratic ticket fades, and the end of robert f. kennedy jr.’s campaign further narrowed the presidential field, the turbulence in the race also seems to have settled. there was a similar 9 point swing since last month among latino voters, with 51 percent now choosing trump, versus 47 percent for harris. it’s a significant bump since 2020, when trump won support from 35 percent of latino voters, according to ap votecast. but there was also a drop in enthusiasm. eighty five percent of latino voters said they are definitely or likely voting, down 10 points from august. read more: an inside look at how the pbs news/npr/marist poll is conducted “those are two important groups that are likely to be the ones who the campaigns are going to be targeting very heavily throughout the campaign,” said amy walter, editor in chief of the cook political report with amy walter. “that’s why this debate really matters, because [harris] needs to get those independent and those latino and other swing voters to be a more permanent part of her coalition.” republican strategist kevin madden described the month since harris secured the democratic nomination as an “enormous sugar high” for the vice president that has been, up until now, reflected in polling because she was “a new candidate not named trump or biden.” watch: trump is gaining ground with some black men. here’s how harris can change their minds “this race has snapped back to where it always was, which is a very, very close contest, amongst a very bitterly divided electorate, and that this election is going to be very, very close and it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” he added. before biden exited the race in july, his support was dipping among other groups critical to his reelection effort, an erosion that set off alarm bells for democratic officials and donors who encouraged him to drop out. the new pbs news/npr/marist poll suggests harris may have similar work to do to rebuild the 2020 coalition that propelled her to the vice presidency   specifically with black and young voters. harris maintains a commanding 53 point lead with black voters   74 percent say they’d choose her if the election were today. but 24 percent of black voters support trump in the latest poll, three times the support he saw in 2020. black voter enthusiasm   with 85 percent saying they will definitely or likely vote   also dipped 7 points in september, though that change falls within the margin of error. watch: black women in georgia discuss their key election issues and harris’ historic campaign harris also has a narrow 2 point lead among voters under 45 years old. this is virtually unchanged since biden was the presumptive nominee, but her 50 percent support is below the 57 percent biden won in 2020. “the harris campaign knew the minute that she joined this race that this was going to be a tight race,” democratic strategist ameshia cross said. “this is going to be a turnout race. this is going to be a race that is going to be decided by a very small margin of voters. this is not going to be a runaway for either candidate.” harris’ support among white voters could help make up for her dips with core democratic constituencies. she trails trump by only 3 points with this group, which republicans won by 12 points in 2020. americans will have their first opportunity to see a direct comparison between the two white house hopefuls when harris and trump meet tuesday night for the abc news presidential debate. the first 2024 debate between biden and trump was perhaps the most consequential presidential debate in modern history, setting off several weeks of democratic consternation that pressured biden to end his campaign. expectations are similarly high for the new candidate matchup. more than two thirds of americans say they will watch all or most of the debate. another 23 percent say they will not watch but will pay close attention to news stories about it, while 6 percent say they will not pay any attention to the debate. “the stakes are really high for this debate,” cross said. “for [harris], the stakes are higher just because she has a much higher ceiling to clear than donald trump does in terms of expectations.” close to a third of voters said the harris trump debate would affect their vote a good or great amount. chart by jenna cohen/ pbs news it’s not that most voters are likely to be swayed by the debate: two thirds of americans say the event will have little to no effect on their vote for president. but the 14 percent of americans who say the debate will have a great impact on which candidate they choose includes several groups important to both campaigns, including 32 percent of black voters, 24 percent of latino voters and 21 percent of gen z/millennials. another 16 percent of americans say the debate will affect their vote “a good amount.” thank you. please check your inbox to confirm. while views of the candidates are largely set among voters who have followed this race closely, debates held closer to election day usually hold outsized influence among those who may not be “as plugged into politics,” according to walter. “the only thing that matters at this point is the 6 8 percent that have yet to make up their mind [and] that live in battleground states because they are going to make or break this election,” madden said. “if kamala harris or donald trump have a very bad debate performance that pushes swing voters one way or the other, in a very close race, it could make a difference.” both campaigns have been working overtime to define who harris would be as president because, as madden described, the vice president has been a “blank slate” for many voters. that’s been reflected in the “seismic amount” of money harris has raised and spent on campaign ads, cross said. in the month she has been the democratic nominee, harris has touted her work in the white house while also rolling out new policy proposals on issues like the economy that distinguish her priorities from the biden administration. “we’re not going back” has become a familiar refrain during harris’ rallies across battleground states, and the pbs news/npr/marist poll suggests that her efforts to turn the page may be working. a majority of americans (52 percent) say harris is the candidate who represents change, including 53 percent of independents. forty seven percent say trump is the change candidate. harris holds a similar 5 point lead over trump when voters were asked which candidate cares about people like them. fact check: as trump and harris prepare to debate, what are they likely to say? “there’s real benefit in being a change candidate” when polls regularly show a majority of americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, ayers said. “[harris] looks like change because of her race and gender. she’s still saddled with a lot of the biden policies, and she’s going to have to figure out a way to be loyal to biden but still separate herself from him.” “it’s an interesting dance to dance because she’s still part of the administration,” cross said of harris’ efforts to sidestep less popular aspects of the biden white house, even as trump’s campaign is trying to “saddle” her with them. the trump vance campaign has worked to find an attack against harris that sticks with voters, frequently calling her a “san francisco liberal.” a plurality of americans (47 percent), including 50 percent of independents, believe harris’ policies are too liberal, according to the pbs news/npr/marist poll, while 41 percent say they are about right. however, a quarter of voters aged 18 29 say harris is too conservative. at the same time, 43 percent of voters say trump’s policies are too conservative, while 43 percent say his views are about right. on debate night, the two candidates are expected to exchange jabs on a handful of hot button topics that are most important to voters. comparing the candidates head to head, trump is trusted by a majority of americans to handle immigration, the middle east and the economy, according to this latest poll. on the economy, which many polls have shown is the biggest concern for voters, 52 percent of voters give trump the edge while 48 percent say harris would handle the economy better. that is unchanged from august, but harris has narrowed the gap significantly from july, when biden trailed trump by 9 points. among independents, trump holds a 15 point advantage on the issue. watch: comparing trump’s and harris’ differing ideas on how to boost the economy as harris has centered issues of reproductive freedom in her campaign, voters continue to give the vice president the lead over trump on abortion. fifty six percent of voters say she’d better handle the issue, compared to 42 percent who felt the same about trump, unchanged from a month ago. on the economy, which many polls have shown is the biggest concern for voters, 52 percent of voters give trump the edge. chart by jenna cohen/ pbs news among the less tangible qualities voters are looking for, the two candidates have different strengths. twenty seven percent of voters   and 30 percent of independents   say they most value a candidate who is honest and trustworthy. among these voters, harris leads trump by 46 points. another 22 percent of voters want a president who is a strong leader. with this group, trump has the edge by 50 points. for both candidates, making the best impression at the debate on these topics and more could have an impact sooner than november. early voting begins in several states this month. “we’re dealing with a very compressed election schedule,” madden said. “there’s no time to waste.” pbs news, npr and marist poll conducted a survey on sept. 3 through 5 that polled 1,529 u.s. adults with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, 1,413 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,164 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in november’s general election with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, 367 independents with a margin of error of 6.5 percentage points, 577 gen z/millennials with a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points, 168 black voters with a margin of error of 9.6 percentage points and 229 latino voters with a margin of error of 8.2 percentage points. left: among registered voters, vice president kamala harris leads former president donald trump by 1 point   49 percent to 48 percent., according to the latest pbs news/npr/marist poll. photos by getty images by yasmeen sami alamiri and associated press by lisa desjardins by amy sherman, louis jacobson, samantha putterman, politifact by michael goldberg, jill colvin, associated press by meg kinnard, jill colvin, associated press matt loffman matt loffman matt loffman is the pbs newshour's deputy senior politics producer support provided by: learn more thank you. please check your inbox to confirm. © 1996   2025 newshour productions llc. all rights reserved. pbs is a 501(c)(3) not for profit organization. sections about stay connected thank you. please check your inbox to confirm. learn more about friends of the news hour. support for news hour provided by

numbers, facts and trends shaping your world read our research on: full topic list read our research on: | nationally, vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump are essentially tied among registered voters in the current snapshot of the presidential race: 46% prefer harris, 45% prefer trump and 7% prefer robert f. kennedy jr. following biden’s exit from the race, trump’s support among voters has remained largely steady (44% backed him in july against biden, while 45% back him against harris today). however, harris’ support is 6 percentage points higher than biden’s was in july. in addition to holding on to the support of those who backed biden in july, harris’ bump has largely come from those who had previously said they supported or leaned toward kennedy. harris performs best among the same demographic groups as biden. but this coalition of voters is now much more likely to say they strongly support her: in july, 43% of biden’s supporters characterized their support as strong   today, 62% of harris’ do. overall, many of the same voting patterns that were evident in the biden trump matchup from july continue to be seen today. harris fares better than trump among younger voters, black voters, asian voters and voters with college degrees. by comparison, the former president does better among older voters, white voters and voters without a college degree. but harris performs better than biden across many of these groups   making the race tighter than it was just a few weeks ago. harris has gained substantial ground over biden’s position in july among black, hispanic and asian voters. most of this movement is attributable to declining shares of support for kennedy. trump performs similarly among these groups as he did in july. while the age patterns present in the harris trump matchup remain broadly the same as those in the biden trump matchup in july, harris performs better across age groups than biden did last month. that improvement is somewhat more pronounced among voters under 50 than among older voters. with harris now at the top of the democratic ticket, the race has become tighter. much of this is the result of shifting preferences among registered voters who, in july, said they favored kennedy over trump or biden. among the same group of voters surveyed in july and early august, 97% of those who backed biden a few weeks ago say they support or lean toward harris today. similarly, trump holds on to 95% of those who supported him a few weeks ago. but there has been far more movement among voters who previously expressed support for kennedy. while kennedy holds on to 39% of those who backed him in july, the majority of these supporters now prefer one of the two major party candidates: by about two to one, those voters are more likely to have moved to harris (39%) than trump (20%). this pattern is evident across most voting subgroups. in july, trump’s voters were far more likely than biden’s voters to characterize their support for their candidate as “strong” (63% vs. 43%). but that gap is no longer present in the harris trump matchup. today, 62% of harris voters say they strongly support her, while about a third (32%) say they moderately support her. trump’s voters are just about as likely to say they strongly back him today as they were in july (64% today, 63% then). kennedy’s voters make up a smaller share of voters today than a month ago   and just 18% of his voters say they strongly support him, similar to the 15% who said the same in july. among women voters who supported biden in july, 45% said they did so strongly. that has grown to 65% today among women voters who support harris. increased intensity of support is similar among men voters who back the democratic candidate: in july, 42% of men voters who supported biden said they did so strongly. this has since grown to 59% of harris’ voters who are men. across racial and ethnic groups, harris’ supporters are more likely than biden’s were to say they back their candidates strongly. among white voters, 43% who supported biden in july did so strongly. today, harris’ strong support among white voters sits at 64%. a near identical share of harris’ black supporters (65%) characterize their support for her as strong today. this is up from the 52% of biden’s black supporters who strongly backed him in july.among harris’ hispanic supporters, 56% support her strongly, while 45% of asian harris voters feel the same. strong support for harris among these voters is also higher than it was for biden in july. across all age groups, harris’ strength of support is higher than biden’s was. but the shift from biden is less pronounced among older democratic supporters than among younger groups. still, older harris voters are more likely than younger harris voters to describe their support as strong. for instance, 51% of harris’ voters under 50 say they strongly support her, while 71% of harris supporters ages 50 and older characterize their support as strong. today, about seven in ten of both trump supporters (72%) and harris supporters (70%) say they are extremely motivated to vote. motivation to vote is higher in both the democratic and republican coalitions than it was in july. these shifts have occurred across groups but are more pronounced among younger voters. today, half of voters under 30 say they are extremely motivated to vote, up 16 points since july. motivation is up 11 points among voters ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64, and up 6 points among those ages 65 and older. among the youngest voters, the increased motivation to vote is nearly all driven by shifts among democratic supporters. fresh data delivery saturday mornings weekly updates on the world of news & information topics 901 e st. nw, suite 300washington, dc 20004usa(+1) 202 419 4300 | main(+1) 202 857 8562 | fax(+1) 202 419 4372 | media inquiries about pew research center pew research center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. it does not take policy positions. the center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data driven research. pew research center is a subsidiary of the pew charitable trusts, its primary funder. © 2025 pew research center

trump administration supported by the electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided. the latest new york times/siena college poll found harris and trump tied 48 to 48. the new york times/siena college poll oct. 20 to 23 if the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were kamala harris and donald trump? kamala harris donald trump among likely voters. shaded areas represent the margin of error. based on a new york times/siena college poll of 2,516 voters nationwide conducted from oct. 20 to 23. by lily boyce and june kim by adam nagourney and ruth igielnik kamala harris and donald j. trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by the new york times and siena college has found, as ms. harris struggles for an edge over mr. trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided. the result, coming less than two weeks before election day, and as millions of americans have already voted, is not encouraging for ms. harris. in recent elections, democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the electoral college and thus the white house. they have been looking to ms. harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. [nate cohn evaluates whether donald trump could win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.] ms. harris and mr. trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent american political history. a high profile debate, two attempts on mr. trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race. ms. harris’s position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last times/siena college poll, taken in early october. at the time, she had a slight lead over mr. trump, 49 percent to 46 percent. the change is within the margin of error, but the times’s national polling average has registered a tightening in polls over the past few weeks as well, suggesting at the very least that this contest has drawn even closer. [follow the latest polls and see updated polling averages of the harris vs. trump matchup.] while this latest times/siena college poll offers a glimpse into national sentiment, the presidential election will be decided in the seven battleground states where ms. harris and mr. trump have devoted the overwhelming amount of their time and resources. most polls in those states   arizona, georgia, michigan, nevada, north carolina, pennsylvania, wisconsin   suggest the contest is equally close. likely voters oct. 20 23 voters as of 5 a.m. oct. 25 registered voters oct. 19 22 likely voters oct. 16 21 likely voters oct. 17 21 likely voters oct. 14 18 likely voters oct. 12 17 notes: margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. the times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. eastern on oct. 25. by lily boyce and june kim the new york times/siena college poll oct. 20 to 23 regardless of how you might vote, do you trust kamala harris or donald trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: the economy abortion immigration democracy among likely voters. question wording has been condensed. based on a new york times/siena college poll of 2,516 voters nationwide conducted from oct. 20 to 23.

follow: vice president kamala harris maintains a narrow advantage in two of the three “blue wall” states that collectively represent her clearest path to an electoral college victory over former president donald trump, according to new cnn polls conducted by ssrs. in michigan, harris holds a lead over trump by 48% to 43% among likely voters. harris also leads trump in wisconsin, where 51% support her to 45% for trump. but the race is tied in pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the largest electoral prize of the three states and a central piece of either candidate’s hopes of winning the white house. all three states broke in trump’s favor in 2016, but president joe biden won them in 2020. of the seven states rated as tossups by cnn, michigan and wisconsin are the only two where voters’ ballots still include robert f. kennedy, jr.   the former independent candidate who suspended his bid for the presidency and threw his support behind trump. in michigan, kennedy holds 3% support, and he stands at 1% in wisconsin. support for third party and independent candidates overall runs highest in michigan, with 6% of likely voters there saying they back a candidate other than harris or trump. there is less support for independent and third party candidates among those likely voters who express the highest motivation to turn out. among those likely voters who say they’re extremely motivated to vote in michigan, 51% support harris to 45% for trump. in wisconsin, they break 52% harris to 47% trump, and in pennsylvania, they divide 50% for harris to 47% for trump. the overall results are nearly identical to the last round of cnn polling in these three states, conducted in late summer, when harris led trump by 50% to 44% in wisconsin and 48% to 43% in michigan, with harris and trump tied at 47% in pennsylvania. the vast majority of blue wall state voters have locked in their choices. just 8% of likely voters in pennsylvania, 7% in michigan and 6% in wisconsin say they haven’t made a choice or could change their minds before election day. harris runs much closer to trump on trust to handle the economy and further ahead of him on handling democracy in both michigan and wisconsin, where she also holds wider advantages on key attributes than in pennsylvania, differences that help to explain her stronger showing in the upper midwest states. her deficit against trump on trust to handle the economy   a perennial top election issue and a trump strength throughout the 2024 campaign   is more modest in those states: just 4 points separate the two in michigan and 3 points in wisconsin, differences that are within each poll’s margin of sampling error. by contrast, harris trails trump by 8 points on the issue in pennsylvania. harris also holds an 8 point advantage over trump on trust to protect democracy in michigan and wisconsin, compared with a narrow 4 point margin in pennsylvania. likely voters in michigan and wisconsin also give harris a relatively broad advantage on perceptions that she’s more honest and trustworthy: she leads trump on this attribute by 17 points in wisconsin and 16 points in michigan, compared to a 7 point margin in pennsylvania. and those voters in michigan and wisconsin also say that harris is the candidate more likely to put the country’s interest above her own: wisconsin likely voters say that by a 10 point margin and michigan likely voters do by an 8 point margin. in pennsylvania, that’s an issue where likely voters are about evenly split (46% harris to 45% trump). these voters in michigan and wisconsin are more likely than those in pennsylvania to say harris cares about people like them, by 9 points in the upper midwest states compared with just a 3 point difference in pennsylvania. in each of the three states, the percentage of likely voters who say they’re backing harris is higher than the percentage who say she shares their vision for the us, while trump’s overall support tracks more closely with his standing on this question. that could suggest that some voters are backing harris less out of enthusiasm for her platform than out of concerns about trump’s character. across michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin, a majority of voters who say that leadership traits outweigh issues in their votes are backing harris. and in each state, roughly 4 in 10 of her supporters say they’re voting more to oppose trump than to support her, higher than the share of trump voters who say they’re casting their vote predominantly in opposition to harris. harris’ narrow leads in michigan and wisconsin are driven in part by relatively strong performance among white voters and white voters without college degrees, two groups which traditionally break republican. white voters in both states split almost evenly (48% trump to 44% harris in michigan, and 48% each in wisconsin, which has a larger white population than the other two states). trump’s margin among white voters without college degrees in those two states state lags behind his margin with the same group in pennsylvania (trump leads 54% to 37% in michigan, 54% to 43% in wisconsin and 61% to 34% in pennsylvania). harris holds a wider lead among black voters in michigan (83% harris to 12% trump) than she does in pennsylvania (76% harris to 21% trump). she has significant advantages with likely voters who hold college degrees across all three states (59% to 36% in wisconsin, 56% to 36% in michigan and 59% to 37% in pennsylvania). the tighter race in pennsylvania is reflected across urban and rural voters within the state: harris’ lead among likely voters who say they live in an urban area in pennsylvania (53% to 38%) is much smaller than in michigan (61% to 31%) or wisconsin (70% to 28%), while trump’s lead among rural likely voters is highest in the keystone state (68% to 30%, compared with 61% to 31% in wisconsin and 56% to 35% in michigan). suburban likely voters, though, break broadly for harris in all three states (55% to 40% in pennsylvania, 52% to 40% in michigan and 51% to 45% in wisconsin). the suburban vote represents about half of likely voters in pennsylvania, compared to 37% in michigan and 28% in wisconsin. all three states feature competitive senate races in seats democrats are defending. the polls find close races for all three. michigan democratic rep. elissa slotkin tops republican former rep. mike rogers 48% to 42% among likely voters. pennsylvania’s democratic sen. bob casey holds 48% support to republican dave mccormick’s 45% in a race with no clear leader. and in wisconsin, there also is no clear leader in the senate race, with democratic sen. tammy baldwin holding 49% support to republican eric hovde’s 47%. compared to southern and western battlegrounds, the blue wall states have less of a history of voting early or by mail, and only about a third or fewer voters across these three say they have already cast ballots. in michigan, 36% of likely voters say they’ve either mailed in a ballot or voted early, with wisconsin at 34% and pennsylvania at 26%. this is the first presidential election in which michigan has held in person early voting, and turnout soared in the first few days of statewide early voting over the weekend. those who say they have already cast ballots are included in each poll’s group of likely voters, and across all three states they break heavily in harris’ favor (61% to 35% in michigan, 60% to 38% in wisconsin and 57% to 40% in pennsylvania). should those pennsylvania numbers hold, they would reflect a significant shift in trump’s favor compared with by mail ballots cast in the 2020 election: biden carried 76% of those votes to trump’s 23%, according to the state’s election results. three quarters or more of likely voters in each of the three states polled say they’re at least somewhat confident that the votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election. a near universal 95% or more of harris supporters in each state express confidence, compared with roughly 6 in 10 trump supporters in each state. interviews were conducted october 23 28, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 726 voters in michigan, 819 in pennsylvania and 736 in wisconsin. likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. results among likely voters in michigan and pennsylvania have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; it is 4.8 points among likely voters in wisconsin. © 2025 cable news network. a warner bros. discovery company. all rights reserved. cnn sans ™ & © 2016 cable news network.

profile sections local tv featured more from nbc follow nbc news news alerts there are no new alerts at this time former president donald trump and vice president kamala harris are deadlocked in the latest national nbc news poll, with trump bolstered by republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s rough debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as by a favorable voter assessment of trump’s term as president. these are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before election day, which also shows harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for harris and trump; and voters viewing abortion as a top motivating issue heading into the 2024 vote. “as summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for kamala harris have stopped,” said democratic pollster jeff horwitt, who conducted this survey with republican pollster bill mcinturff. “the race is a dead heat.” follow live updates on the 2024 election mcinturff said “headwinds” for harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from president joe biden and voters seeing trump’s presidency in a more positive light than biden’s. “she is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” mcinturff said of harris. still, underlining the poll is uncertainty about the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a sliver of unclaimed voters still on the fence), an all time high share of voters believing that this presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and key challenges for both harris and trump. the third party vote could play a role, too   trump gets a small boost when third party candidates are included in the ballot test, to a 1 point edge. and in a finely balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could be the difference between a win and a loss for either party. “the challenge for kamala harris: can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked horwitt, the democratic pollster. “the challenge for donald trump: can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing america?” he added. “the next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” horwitt said. in the new poll   which was conducted oct. 4 8   harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head to head matchup, while trump gets an identical 48%. another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major party candidates. (read more here from nbc news’ pollsters on why this poll measures registered voters and not likely voters.) that’s a change from september’s nbc news poll, which found harris leading trump by 5 points, 49% 44%, though that result was within the margin of error. an expanded ballot including third party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking trump, 46% supporting harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided. in september, however, harris held a 6 point lead on this expanded ballot. given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the nbc news poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios. assuming a more favorable environment for republicans   which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees   trump leads harris by 2 points, 49% 47%. but assuming a more favorable turnout environment for democrats   which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls   these survey results show harris leading trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49% 46%. all of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. (read here for an in depth breakdown of these different turnout scenarios and how they would affect the election.) at 48% 48%, the survey results are as close as possible. but among different groups, there are enormous variations in candidate support. the poll finds harris with her biggest advantages over trump among black voters (84% 11%), younger voters ages 18 to 34 (57% 37%) and white voters with college degrees (55% 41%). trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75% 23%), white voters (56% 42%) and whites without college degrees (65% 33%). yet what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is a massive gender gap between harris and trump, with women supporting harris by a 14 point margin (55% 41%) and men backing trump by 16 points (56% 40%). independent voters are essentially split in the poll, with harris getting support from 44% of them versus 40% choosing trump. compared to other groups, there are more independents who have yet to choose between harris and trump   or who say they don’t want to pick either of them. another significant change in the nbc news poll since september is harris’ popularity. one of the major developments in september’s nbc news poll, conducted after the harris trump debate on sept. 10, was her double digit increase in popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before she became democrats’ presidential candidate. her ratings shot upward to 48% positive, 45% negative (a +3 net rating). but in this latest poll, harris’ rating stands at 43% positive, 49% negative ( 6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and young voters. that’s not too far removed from trump’s 43% positive, 51% negative score ( 8) in this same poll. that positive rating is trump’s highest in the nbc news poll since he left office. another storyline from the poll is voters’ different views of biden’s presidency versus trump’s   a key question given the candidates’ efforts to cast themselves as agents of change in this election. twenty five percent of voters say biden’s policies have helped them and their families, compared with 45% who believe they’ve hurt them. those numbers are essentially flipped on views of trump’s past presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies helped them, versus 31% who say they hurt them. what’s more, looking back on trump’s presidency, 48% of voters say they approved of the former president’s job performance. that’s a higher job approval rating than trump ever held in the nbc news poll when he was president. it also stands in contrast to biden’s current 43% approval in the poll. and asked what concerns them more   harris continuing the same approach as biden or trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president   43% of voters say they are more concerned about harris following in biden’s path, compared with 41% who are more worried about trump repeating the actions of his term. “the fact that harris trails even slightly on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that biden’s policies are hurting their family, while trump’s policies helped their family,” said horwitt, the democratic pollster. while most public polls, including september’s national nbc news poll, find the cost of living ranking as voters’ top concern, this survey asked a different question to get at voter intensity and motivation heading into election day: is there one issue you feel so strongly about that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that issue? the top responses, with multiple allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%) and cost of living (16%). the nbc news poll also tested harris and trump on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including who would better handle some of the key issues voters see as their top priorities. harris’ best issue versus trump was abortion (19 point lead over trump on handling the issue), health care (+10) and being competent and effective (+5). trump’s top issues and qualities: dealing with the border (+25), handling the situation in the middle east (+18) and dealing with the cost of living (+11). on the key matter of which candidate better represents change, harris is ahead of trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, but that’s down from her 9 point lead here in september. sixty two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “great deal of difference” in their lives. that’s the highest response on this nbc news poll question dating back to 1992. like on the presidential ballot, democrats and republicans are tied on congressional preference, with 47% of registered voters preferring a democratic controlled congress, and with an identical 47% wanting republicans in charge. democrats held a 2 point lead in september, 48% 46%, which was within the margin of error. and 31% of voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 64% think it’s on the wrong track. the share of voters believing the country is on the wrong track is the lowest it’s been in the poll since august 2021, which was also the last time biden had a positive job approval rating in the poll. the nbc news poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cellphone, was conducted oct. 4 8. it has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. mark murray is a senior political editor at nbc news. © 2025 nbcuniversal media, llc

forgot your password? donald trump’s popular vote total has fallen below 50 percent, and his margin over kamala harris has narrowed considerably as all the votes are counted. former president donald trump speaks after being declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election at the palm beach county convention center in west palm beach, florida, on november 6, 2024. “america has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” donald trump declared in the early morning hours of november 6, 2024, after all the polls had closed. indeed, he claimed that he had won “a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this.” trump was excited by the numbers showing him with well over 50 percent of the popular vote and establishing a wide lead over his democratic rival, vice president kamala harris. unfortunately, for the president elect, the united states takes time to count 155 million votes give or take a million and the actual result will rob trump of his bragging points. trump can no longer claim that powerful mandate. by most reasonable measures, the beginning point for such a claim in a system with two major parties is an overwhelming majority vote in favor of your candidacy. trump no longer has that. over the weekend, as california, oregon, washington, and other western states moved closer to completing their counts, trump’s percentage of the popular vote fell below 50 percent. and his margin of victory looks to be much smaller than initially anticipated. in fact, of all the 59 presidential elections since the nation’s founding, it appears that after all of the 2024 votes are counted only five popular vote winners in history will have prevailed by smaller percentage margins than trump. trump’s popular vote advantage has declined steadily since election night. as of monday afternoon, trump was at 49.94 percent, while harris was at 48.26, according to the authoritative cook political report’s tracking of results from official sources in states across the country. and we can expect that the republican’s total will only continue to tick downward as heavily democratic states on the west coast finalize their vote tallies. trump’s still ahead of harris in the popular vote. he also maintains a lead in the decisive, though absurdly antidemocratic, electoral college  slightly less than barack obama’s in 2012, slightly more joe biden’s in 2020 based on a pattern of wins in battleground states. so, the failure to win a majority won’t cost trump the presidency. but he’s lost his ability to suggest that he trounced the democrat. in fact, she’s now trailing him by just 1.68 percent of the vote. let’s put this in perspective: trump is winning a lower percent of the popular vote this year than biden did in 2020 (51.3), obama in 2012 (51.1), obama in 2008 (52.9), george w. bush in 2004 (50.7), george h.w. bush in 1988 (53.2), ronald reagan in 1984 (58.8), reagan in 1980 (50.7), or jimmy carter in 1976 (50.1). and, of course, trump numbers are way below those of the presidents who won what could reasonably be described as “unprecedented and powerful” mandates, such as richard nixon’s 60.7 percent in 1972, lyndon johnson’s 61.1 percent in 1964, or franklin delano roosevelt’s 60.8 percent. as trump’s percentage continues to slide, he’ll fall below the thresholds achieved by most presidents in the past century. harris, on the other hand, is looking like a much stronger finisher than she did on election night. in fact, the democrat now has a higher percentage of the popular vote than presidents trump in 2016 (46.1), bush in 2000 (47.9), clinton in 1992 (43), or nixon in 1968 (43.4). she has also performed significantly better than recent major party nominees such as trump in 2020 (46.8), hillary clinton in 2016 (48.2), mitt romney in 2012 (47.2), john mccain in 2008 (45.7), george w. bush in 2000 (47.9), bob dole in 1996 (40.7), george h.w. bush in 1992 (37.4), michael dukakis in 1988 (45.6), walter mondale (40.6), carter in 1980 (41), or gerald ford in 1976 (48). yes, some of those historic results were influenced by the presence of strong third party contenders. but most were not. and the bottom line is that the gap between trump and harris is narrower than the difference between major party contenders in the vast majority of american presidential races. why make note of all the presidents who ran better than trump? why discuss the narrowness of his advantage over harris? why consider, in addition, that the republican majorities in the house and senate will be among the narrowest in modern american history? because it puts the 2024 election results in perspective and, in doing so, gives members of both parties an understanding of how to respond when trump claims that an unappealing nominee or policy should be accepted out of deference to his “powerful” mandate. trump’s victory was not of “epic” or “historic” proportions. there was no “landslide” for the once and future president, as fox news suggested repeatedly in postelection headlines. the election did not produce the “decisive victory” for trump that the associated press referred to in the immediate aftermath of the voting. nor did it yield the “resounding defeat” for harris that ap reported at the same time. that won’t matter to trump, who claimed a mandate even when he lost the 2016 popular vote by almost 3 million ballots. four years later, trump refused to accept his defeat by more than 7 million votes, and denied that majority support for biden in the 2020 election amounted to anything akin to a mandate. these numbers are better for the democrats than what was recorded on election night, and that many pundits continue to suggest. that does not mean, however, that a clearer picture of the results should dissuade the democrats from looking for ways to reform their party. even if the margins are narrower than initially imagined, it is still the case that the party failed to beat trump and a republican party that embraces the destructive politics not just of its presidential candidate but of the billionaire class. this is a time for serious reflection on mistakes that were made, and on challenges going forward, as part of a needed examination of how to build a multiracial, multiethnic working class coalition that can win decisively, and not just at the presidential level but also in the struggle to regain control of the house and senate in 2026. what the numbers do provide democrats and progressives, however, is an argument against despair and surrender, especially as the debate opens over trump’s cabinet picks, judicial nominees, and legislative priorities. “research suggests that mandate claims, despite their tenuous connection to reality, can be effective in affecting legislative behavior,” notes julia azari, the associate professor of political science at marquette university who authored delivering the people’s message: the changing politics of the presidential mandate. “political science studies show that legislators will change their behavior in response to the perception of a mandate election but only for so long.” elie mystal dave zirin jeet heer elie mystal the first months of trump’s presidency will go a long way toward defining the character of his second term. democrats and a handful of thoughtful republicans have the potential to temper trump’s worst excesses, and to assure that the constitutionally mandated system of checks and balances is maintained. when trump pushes back against congressional oversight by claiming that his appointments and policies reflect the will of the electorate, members of the house and senate can counter that specious claim by explaining that the majority of the american people did not vote for him. john nichols is a national affairs correspondent for the nation. he has written, cowritten, or edited over a dozen books on topics ranging from histories of american socialism and the democratic party to analyses of us and global media systems. his latest, cowritten with senator bernie sanders, is the new york times bestseller it's ok to be angry about capitalism. while the lawsuits being filed against the trump musk administration are righteous, they will not “save” us from this nightmare. elie mystal over the coup coup nest. steve brodner illegal raids at workplaces, schools, and churches are instilling fear in the most vulnerable communities, but immigrant resistance is growing stronger. oppart / andrea arroyo you know things are bad when you end up nostalgic for trump's first term. sasha abramsky trump and his white nationalist allies are pursuing a shock and awe strategy against immigrants and many democrats seem all too eager to join him. gaby del valle attacked by the right for noting that musk and trump don't have monarchical powers, the member of congress refers her critics to the nation's founding document. john nichols

posted by: siena college research institute november 4, 2024 az 1024 az 1124 ga 0924 ga 1124 mi 0924 mi 1124 nc 0924 nc 1124 nv 0824 nv 1124 pa 1024 pa 1124 wi 0924 wi 1124 tx 1024 ne 1024 sny 1024 ny01 1024 ny04 1024 arizona: trump over harris 49 45%; gallego over lake 50 45% siena college research institute director don levy said: “former president donald trump maintains a four point lead   it was five points in october   over vice president kamala harris. trump continues to lead with strong support from men, and white voters without a college degree. harris leads among women, young voters and hispanics. movement among any of these subgroups could determine the outcome. “in the race for the open u.s. senate seat, democrat ruben gallego continues to lead republican kari lake, now by five points, 50 45%, after leading 48 41%, seven points, in october. the gender gap has widened a little, with men supporting ms. lake by 12 points, up from four points in october, and women supporting mr. gallego by 19 points, up slightly from 17 points last month. interestingly, gallego overperforms harris among nearly every subgroup including by a net 9 points with white voters without a b.a.” georgia: harris 48%   trump 47% levy said: “it went from a small four point trump lead in september to a near even 48 47%, with harris holding that nearly invisible one point lead. harris doubled a modest eight point lead with women previously to a now 17 point lead, offsetting trump’s 18 point lead among men, largely unchanged from 17 points in september. “harris increased her overwhelming lead with black voters from 71 points to now 78 points, and at the same time cut her huge deficit with white voters from 45 points in september to 35 points today. trump continues to enjoy a very large lead among white voters without a college degree, 55 points today, down from 63 points.” michigan: harris & trump tied at 47%; slotkin edges rogers 48 46% levy said: “in a race that’s been tight from start to finish, it’s not shocking to see the final michigan poll be dead even, little changed from september’s one point margin in harris’ favor. while there was little change in the gender gap since september, the education gap has widened. trump’s lead among voters without a college degree more than doubled from five points to 11 points, while harris’ lead with voters who have a degree went from 14 points in september to 21 points today. in the michigan senate race, republican mike rogers has narrowed what was a five point deficit against democratic rep. elissa slotkin in september, to a very tight two point slotkin lead. similarly, last month voters without a college degree barely supported rogers, by one point, and now favor rogers by nine points, while slotkin bumped her lead with college educated voters by four points, from a 17 point lead to now a 21 point lead with those voters.” nevada: harris 49%, trump 46%; rosen leads brown 52 43% levy said: “in august, nevada leaned, ever so slightly, to trump 48 47%. now, harris has a small three point lead, 49 46%. while trump picked up among men, increasing his previous lead of 11 points to 16 points today, harris dramatically widened her lead with women from seven points in august to 22 points today. she also greatly increased her lead with hispanic voters, from a meager four points in august to a commanding two to one, 65 33%, lead today. “incumbent democrat jacky rosen continues to have a nine point lead, 52 43% compared to 49 40% in august, over republican sam brown in the race for the senate. rosen gained ground with hispanic voters, increasing her lead from 14 points to 39 points, but at the same time, brown picked up with white voters, going from a narrow two point lead to now an 11 point lead.” north carolina: harris 48%, trump 46%; stein tops robinson 56 38% levy said: “what was a tight two point edge for trump in september, is now a tight two point edge for harris. interestingly, harris made ground with women and men, increasing her lead among women from eight points to 15 points, and also decreasing her deficit with men from 17 points in september to 10 points today. and in a reverse of what we see in some other states, the education gap has actually tightened. trump’s previous 18 point lead with voters without a college degree is down to six points, while harris’ lead among those with a college degree fell from 20 points to 15 points. “in the race for the open governor’s seat, democrat attorney general josh stein has nearly doubled the ten point lead he held over republican lt. governor mark robinson in september to a commanding 18 point, 56 38% lead. stein leads with women two to one, 62 31%, but also has a narrow three point lead with men. perhaps the best way to view this race is through republicans. in september, only 8% were voting for stein; today 16%, along with 96% of democrats.” pennsylvania: trump & harris tied at 48%; casey over mccormick 50 45% levy said: “pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs with trump and harris tied, 47 47% in our final poll. trump erased harris’ 3 point lead from three weeks earlier by drawing closer with women and extending his advantage among white voters especially those without a college degree. harris enjoys a 64 point lead with black voters and a 27 point lead with white college educated voters   up from 18 points   two groups whose turnout may decide pennsylvania. casey arrives at election day up 5 points over mccormick, up slightly from 4 points three weeks ago. the gender gap lessened with mccormick drawing closer with women and casey now down only 4 points with men but casey extended leads among young voters and black voters while mccormick increased his lead with white voters without a college education from 13 to 26 points. wisconsin: harris 49%, trump 47%; baldwin over hovde 50 46% levy said: “the more things change in wisconsin, the more they stay the same. harris had a narrow 49 47% lead in late september and she has the same narrow 49 47% lead heading into election day. not surprisingly, there was little movement over the last several weeks with most demographic groups, although voters under 30 moved from backing trump by 18 points previously and now support harris by 16 points. at the same time, trump cut his gap with voters over 65 from a 15 point deficit, to trailing by eight points. “the race for senate between incumbent democrat tammy baldwin and republican eric hovde has tightened a little from a seven point baldwin lead previously to a now four point bulge, 50 46%. while hovde still trails badly with women, 57 39%, it’s been cut from what was a 62 33% baldwin lead with women. and hovde also increased his lead with voters without a college degree from five points to 11 points.” nebraska: trump crushes harris 55 40%; harris leads in ne2, 54 42%; fischer edging osborn 48 46% texas: trump leads harris 52 42%; cruz over allred, 50 46% new york state   siena college research institute final poll: levy said: “it appears that new york voters are poised to do what new york voters do   vote democratic, particularly in presidential elections. every democratic presidential candidate this century has carried new york by at least 18 points. the final siena college poll has harris leading trump by 19 points, 58 39%. “not surprisingly, senator kirsten gillibrand   who has won her three previous senate elections by between 28 and 46 points   has a commanding 26 point lead over first time candidate mike sapraicone. “ny1 may be one of those classic swing districts   democrats controlled the district for a decade before republicans captured it for the last decade   where the winner will come down to which side does a better job getting it’s supporters to the polls. with a very narrow three point lead, incumbent republican nick lalota will need to turn out every supporter if he wants to hold off his democratic challenger, john avlon. “ny4 is a district that biden carried by 12% in 2020. so even though the incumbent, freshman republican, anthony d’esposito, beat his past and current democratic challenger, laura gillen, by three points in 2022, the district appears poised to return to the democratic column, now favoring gillen by 12 points, 53 41%, over d’esposito.” political partnerships, political economic, ics economic, ics © 2025 siena college research institute. all rights reserved.

numbers, facts and trends shaping your world read our research on: full topic list read our research on: | americans are deeply divided over donald trump’s plans and the way he is handling his job in the early weeks of his return to the presidency. overall, 47% of u.s. adults approve of how trump is handling his job as president, while 51% say they disapprove. and most of these views are strongly held: 37% strongly approve of his performance, while 40% strongly disapprove. roughly a third (35%) say they support all or most of trump’s policies and plans, with 17% saying they support some of them. nearly half of adults (47%) say they support only a few or none of his plans. most americans (73%), including majorities of both republicans and democrats, say trump has clear goals for where he wants to lead the country. but republicans are more likely to say he’ll be successful at achieving those goals. trump’s current 47% approval rating is higher today than it was at the beginning of his first term in office. his rating is also higher than at any other point in his first four year term, and far higher than when he left office in early 2021 (trump’s approval fell to 29% in the wake of the 2020 presidential election and his rejection of its results). trump’s job ratings remain as polarized by party as ever: the current partisan gap in trump’s approval ratings is on par with much of his first term, though wider than in the last weeks of his term (when 60% of republicans approved of his job performance). today, trump’s job approval stands at 47%, including 37% who say they strongly approve of the way he is handling his job as president. about half of americans (51%) say they disapprove of trump’s job performance so far, including four in ten who say they strongly disapprove. trump’s ratings are more positive than negative among: trump’s ratings are more negative than positive among: the public offers mixed assessments of trump’s personal traits   including his leadership skills, mental fitness and physical fitness. on the three other dimensions asked about on the survey (choosing good advisers, acting ethically in office and respect for u.s. democratic values), substantially more americans express little or no confidence in trump than say they are extremely or very confident in him. today, a majority of republicans are at least very confident in trump across all six traits asked about on the survey. in particular, republicans express a great deal of confidence when it comes to his leadership skills (76%), mental fitness (75%) and physical fitness (65%). smaller majorities of republicans express confidence that he acts ethically in office (55%), picks good advisers (60%) or respects the country’s democratic values (60%). still, republican confidence that trump acts ethically and picks good advisers is higher than it was in april 2024. democrats express little to no confidence in trump on any of the dimensions asked about on the survey. these views are nearly identical to democratic opinion in april 2024. americans are divided in their views of whether the trump administration will be successful in the long run. while 35% say they think trump will be successful in the long run, a similar share (33%) say they think he will be unsuccessful. roughly three in ten (31%) say it is still too early to tell whether he will be successful. in a center phone survey from january 2017, at the start of trump’s first administration, most americans (58%) said it was too early to tell whether or not he would be a successful president. about equal shares predicted he would be successful (21%) as said he’d be unsuccessful (20%). today, far smaller shares say it is too early to tell what kind of president trump will be   though those who offer a prediction remain divided about whether he will be successful or unsuccessful.as has long been the case for presidents, partisans have very different predictions: about two thirds of republicans say trump will be successful, while 63% of democrats say he will be unsuccessful. the reverse was true when joe biden took office. americans are also split in their support for trump’s policies and plans, though more say they support few or none of trump’s plans than say they support all or most of them. about a third (35%) of u.s. adults say they support all (9%) or most (25%) of trump’s policies and plans, with 17% saying they support some. this compares with 47% of adults who support only a few (23%) or none (24%) of his plans. two thirds of republicans say they support all or most of trump’s plans, while an even wider majority of democrats   84%   say they support only a few or none of trump’s plans. the partisan divides in views of his plans and policies extend to early actions the administration has taken so far. while 53% of republicans say these actions have been better than they expected, 60% of democrats say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected. more than a third of americans (36%)   including similar shares in both partisan groups   say trump’s actions have been about what they expected. most americans say trump has clear goals for where he wants to lead the country (73%), but there is more disagreement over how much of his agenda he will be able to accomplish over the next four years. but there is a larger partisan gap over whether he will achieve those goals: americans broadly disapprove of trump’s “day one” pardons of most of those convicted of crimes related to the events at the u.s. capitol on jan. 6, 2021. about three quarters (74%) disapprove of trump’s pardons of those convicted of violent crimes, while a narrower majority (54%) disapprove of trump’s pardons for those convicted of nonviolent offenses. there are partisan differences in views of both types of pardons, though the partisan gap is much narrower when it comes to those convicted of violent crimes. when asked about pardons for nonviolent jan. 6 related crimes: as for pardons of violent crimes: shortly before joe biden left office, he issued pardons to members of congress and congressional staff who worked on the committee that investigated the events of jan. 6, as well as to police officers who testified before that committee. republicans and democrats hold starkly different views of these pardons: thinking back to the jan. 6 committee investigation, about half of americans (49%) are very or somewhat confident the investigations were fair and reasonable, while the same share (49%) are not confident they were. as was the case in 2022, democrats are more than three times as likely as republicans (76% vs. 22%) to express confidence in the committee’s investigation. fresh data delivery saturday mornings weekly updates on the world of news & information topics 901 e st. nw, suite 300washington, dc 20004usa(+1) 202 419 4300 | main(+1) 202 857 8562 | fax(+1) 202 419 4372 | media inquiries about pew research center pew research center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. it does not take policy positions. the center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data driven research. pew research center is a subsidiary of the pew charitable trusts, its primary funder. © 2025 pew research center

read about donald trump’s first presidential approval rating of his second term. trump’s second term data will be added to the presidential approval interactive graph in late february. (*) required this site is protected by recaptcha and the google privacy policy and terms of service apply. trump's initial job approval rating is similar to what it was at the start of his first term, reaffirming his position as the lowest rated new president since 1953. a slim majority of u.s. adults approve of the way donald trump is handling his presidential transition, but more rate his cabinet picks negatively than positively. of 17 policy goals, americans are most optimistic about donald trump's ability to control immigration and most pessimistic about his ability to heal political divisions in the u.s. throughout 2024, gallup's key indicators signaled the election environment was favorable to republicans. gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential approval ratings donald trump.aspx gallup world headquarters, 901 f street, washington, d.c., 20001, u.s.a +1 202.715.3030

the texas politics project conducts regular, non partisan, statewide polls of registered voters in texas, and makes the results and data available for public use. find interpretation and analysis of texas politics and government from the texas politics project. browse and download graphics for all the findings from the most recent university of texas/texas politics project poll. find data, documentation, and links to tens of thousands of graphics from more than 15 years of texas politics project polling. search results from texas politics project polling by name, subject, and/or key groups, and download the results in multiple formats. texas politics project educational efforts include the texas politics project webtext, courses taught through the university of texas and university extension, and an archive of open source resources for teachers, students, and the public. the texas politics webtext is affordable, engaging, and informed by texas politics project public opinion polling and expertise. the texas politics project produces courses for students enrolled at ut austin and for the public via university extension. explore our archive of data visualization and other open source educational content. find resources for learning and teaching about texas politics and government from ut austin and other public sources. browse work by researchers who have used texas politics project data and analysis. find data, documentation, and links to tens of thousands of graphics from more than 15 years of texas politics project polling. search for texas politics project polling results by date, subject, electoral group, and/or free text. view visualizations of public opinion and other texas data. latest internship listings. submit your internship for consideration. search all available interships. toplines crosstabs the latest university of texas/texas politics project poll finds former president donald trump leading vice president kamala harris 49% to 44% in a head to head match up in the presidential race in texas. three percent chose an unspecified “someone else,” and 4% were undecided. this result follows a june ut/texas politics project poll in which then candidate joe biden trailed trump by 7 points, 46% to 39%. the poll was conducted august 23 31 among 1200 registered voters, after the conclusion of the democratic national convention, and has a margin of error of +/  2.83% for the full sample. (see the final pages of the poll summary document for detailed methodological information.) in a multicandidate trial ballot including non major party candidates, trump and harris received the same shares as in the head to head match up (49% and 44% respectively). jill stein was the choice of 2%, while chase oliver received less than one half of one percent, so was rounded down to zero; 6% were undecided. the poll also registered an increase in democrats’ enthusiasm about the 2024 election: 79% of democrats were either “extremely” (52%) or very enthusiastic (27%) about voting in the 2024 election. these results represent an increase in both the degree and the intensity compared to the june ut/texas politics project poll, when 61% were enthusiastic (39% extremely enthusiastic, 22% very enthusiastic). republican enthusiasm decreased slightly in both degree and intensity, from 77% either extremely (55%) or very enthusiastic (22%) in june to 49% extremely enthusiastic and 24% very enthusiastic in the latest survey. in the race for the u.s. senate, incumbent republican ted cruz leads democratic challenger colin allred 44% to 36%, with 2% preferring libertarian ted brown, 4% choosing an unspecified “someone else,” and 14% undecided. cruz led allred 45% to 34% in the june ut/texas politics project poll. a deeper look at the presidential race in texas the august poll also explored texas voters’ views of the candidates, their traits, who they trust more to handle key issues, and other aspects of the ongoing campaign. favorability ratings kamala harris’ favorability rating increased positively compared to june polling conducted prior to her replacing biden as the presidential candidate. she is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 46%, a clear improvement after being viewed favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 51% in june ut/texas politics project polling. among democrats, she improved from 71% favorable and 14% unfavorable in june to 87% favorable and 5% unfavorable in august amidst clear signs of democratic voters rallying to her candidacy. the share of democrats who view her very favorably nearly doubled in the same period, from 34% in june to 62% in august. harris’ favorability rating among independents also improved significantly, from 18% favorable, 58% unfavorable in june to 37% favorable, 42% unfavorable in august. her net ratings remained in negative territory, but improved dramatically from  40 to  5. republican views of harris showed no statistically meaningful change (9% favorable, 84% unfavorable). donald trump’s favorability ratings stayed in their normal range, despite the significant passage of time and events since the ut/txp poll last recorded voters’ views of him in june. in that poll, 45% held a favorable view of the former president, while 49% held an unfavorable view. in august polling, trump’s favorability ratings have increased to 49% while his unfavorable rating dropped 1 point to 48%. overall, trump saw a bump in positive views among republicans after the failed assassination attempt of the former president, with 88% holding a favorable view of him in august, including 62% holding a very favorable view   both peaks in the time series going back to november of 2015. independents maintained negative views, on average, of the former president, with 34% holding a favorable view and 57% holding an unfavorable view, a slight improvement over june. democrats continue to harbor a negative view of the former president, with 90% saying they have either an unfavorable (4%) or very unfavorable view (86%). candidate traits biden’s exit from the race has been accompanied by an increase in concern about trump being too old to be president in 2025: 46% agreed that trump “is too old to be president in 2025,” up from 33% in june. this share remains much smaller than the share who thought biden was too old to be president, 69%, in the previous poll, and attitudes fall strongly along partisan lines. in both polls, more than three quarters of republicans did not think trump would be too old to assume the presidency. as the table below illustrates, texas voters' views of the respective candidates’ traits are closely divided in most cases. harris has a very slight edge over trump, within the poll’s margin of error, in evaluations of temperament (49% v. 47%), honesty and trustworthiness (42% v. 39%), and empathy (“cares about people like you”) (46% v. 45%). trump has a similarly slight edge in being “knowledgeable” (55% v. 53%), and a much clearer advantage in being a “strong leader” (57% v. 43%). the two are tied in the dimension of competence (52%). trust in candidates on major issues asked to evaluate who they trust on a selection of issues, texas voters expressed more trust in trump than in harris on 6 out of the 10 issues included. texas voters express more trust in trump on the issues that have regularly topped the “most important problems facing the state” items over the last two years of polling, including the current poll. voters express more trust for trump than harris on the economy (50% v. 40%), inflation and prices (49% v. 40%), and immigration and border security (53% v. 36%, harris’s lowest issue trust rating). trump also led on crime and public safety (48% v. 42%), foreign policy (45% v. 41%), and infrastructure, (45% v. 41%). the latter result is likely to raise some eyebrows, given that infrastructure is widely viewed as one of the biden presidency’s signature accomplishments, and an area in which trump made frequent promises but was unable to find success through legislation. voters trust harris more on climate change (47% v. 27%), gun violence (43% v. 41%), health care (47% v. 39%), and, by the widest margin, on abortion access (55% v. 27%, trump’s lowest trust rating). asked in an open ended question to name “the one or two issues you think the presidential candidates should be talking about during the campaign,” the most frequent responses included the economy, mentioned by 24% of those who responded, and inflation (16%), followed by immigration or border security (18%), and abortion or women’s rights (7%). other issues mentioned by 5% or less of those who responded included health care, climate change, and democracy. (see the summary document for the poll for a more complete list of issues mentioned in the open ended item.) affirmative support versus negative views of the opposing candidate harris supporters expressed more affirmative support for her when asked if their vote choice was based on supporting harris or opposing trump: 70% described their vote as wanting harris to be elected, while 30% described it as not wanting trump to be elected. in june, 53% described their vote as affirmatively for biden, with 47% wanting to prevent trump from being re elected. a large majority of trump voters, 80%, continued to be affirmatively supportive of trump, little changed from 74% in june. harris replacing biden on the democratic ticket among all voters, 72% think biden “made the right decision by dropping out of the 2024 presidential race,” with only 17% saying it was the wrong decision; 11% had no opinion. underlying the surge in democratic enthusiasm, 89% of democrats thought biden’s exit was the right decision, and only 4% of his own partisans disagreed. partisanship enters in more strongly in comparisons of harris and biden: 49% think harris is a stronger candidate than biden, while 15% say she is a weaker candidate and 32% say “there is no real difference between the two.” here too, democrats overwhelmingly approve of the results of biden’s decision to exit the race: 82% of democrats say harris is the stronger candidate, with only 3% saying she is weaker, and 12% seeing no difference. most republicans (49%) think there is no difference between biden and harris, with similar shares seeing harris as stronger (21%) and weaker (26%) than biden. among independents, half (50%) see harris as stronger, while 16% see her as weaker and 27% see no difference. nearly two thirds of texas voters, 64%, think biden should complete his term in office, while a quarter (25%) think he should resign. democrats overwhelmingly think he should complete his term (86%), while republicans are closely divided   45% say he should complete his term, while 41% say he should resign. key groups in the presidential race after the harris replaced biden kamala harris’s unprecedented replacement of joe biden as the democratic presidential candidate has triggered attention to whether and how harris might help democrats in attracting key groups of voters whose support for biden was called into question by early polling trends. there are several sources of caution necessary at this stage of the campaign when interpreting changes over time in group support using polling data to date. most of the subgroups are sufficiently small subsets with large margins of error, and results for them are therefore subject to variance in multiple polls over time. all of the polling prior to fall should also take into account limited attention to the presidential race (and politics overall, for that matter), even allowing for the unusual nature of the presidential race this year and the attention it has generated. with those caveats in mind, harris has improved among most of the key groups necessary for her campaign to maintain traditional democratic bases of support, and to remain within single digits of the republican candidate, the broad range of the republican win margin in the last two presidential elections (5.58% in 2020, 8.98% in 2016). in the domain of traditional democratic support, harris improved on biden’s margins in june trial ballots among black voters, women, and pro choice voters. she led among latino voters and improved on biden’s june total, but the size of her lead among a group being hotly contested in texas shrank to just 2 percentage points as trump’s support also increased. trump’s hold on pro life voters increased slightly, while the margin of his advantage among white voters held steady. trump also gained among urban voters in the august poll. vice presidential candidates the unique nature of the 2024 presidential contest has generated somewhat increased attention to the vice presidential nominees on each ticket. while new faces to most texans, it hasn’t taken long for voters here to arrive at initial evaluations of the two vp candidates. overall, 39% hold a favorable view of j.d. vance, while 41% hold an unfavorable view. republicans hold highly positive views of the first term senator (70% favorable, 8% unfavorable), but vance also finds himself in a negative position with respect to female voters. overall, 47% of men hold a favorable view of vance (36% unfavorable), while among women, 45% hold an unfavorable view compared to 36% holding a favorable view. while this no doubt reflects gender differences in partisanship, it’s also the case that republican men hold a more favorable view of vance than gop women (75% vs. 64%). governor tim walz is viewed slightly more favorably (40%) than unfavorably (38%) by the texas electorate. three quarters of democrats hold a favorable view of the minnesota governor, while he breaks even with hispanic (36% favorable, 36% unfavorable) and suburban voters (40% favorable, 41% unfavorable). dynamics in the u.s. senate race in texas asked who they would be supporting in the upcoming senate race, ted cruz led his democratic challenger colin allred 44% to 36%, but this 8 point gap represents a clear chipping away, as december ut/txpp polling found allred trailing by 16 points, which winnowed to 14 points in february, 13 points in april, 11 points in june, and now 8 points today. a large part of this narrowing of the lead is likely due to colin allred consolidating the support of democratic voters who may not be familiar with the dallas area representative. one year ago, in august of 2023, 34% of democrats held a favorable view of allred with 11% holding an unfavorable view. in august of this year, 69% of democrats hold a favorable view of allred compared to 7% holding an unfavorable view. a challenging group for senator cruz during his last reelection campaign, 30% of independents hold a favorable view of allred compared to 22% holding an unfavorable view. asked to assess cruz, these same independent voters returned a negative review with only 23% saying they view the state’s junior senator favorably and 55% holding an unfavorable view. overall, cruz is viewed favorably and unfavorably by 45% of texas voters, respectively, with texas republicans offering overwhelmingly positive views (79% favorable) and democrats, overwhelmingly negative views (82% unfavorable). overall, 45% of texas voters approve of the job cruz is doing, while 44% disapprove. while cruz maintains an advantage in the trial ballot, the incumbent is underwater with respect to texans’ job approval ratings among key segments of the electorate, including latinos (55% disapprove, 33% approve); suburban voters (48% disapprove, 42% approve); and women (49% disapprove, 37% approve). views of the economy texas voters' views of the economy continue to be generally negative, with some glint of positivity about the future. only 27% think the u.s. economy is better off than one year ago, with 49% thinking it’s worse and 23% about the same. asked about the texas economy, 22% think it’s better off than a year ago, 36% think it's worse, and 37% think it’s about the same. when asked about their personal economic situation, 19% are better off, 44% worse off, and 36% about the same. asked about their expectations of the national economy a year from now, texas voters were more positive than were their views of the present: 39% thought the economy would be better off, 22% expected more of the same, and 28% thought it would be worse off. (to see how the latest results fit into trends in texans economic and track assessments, see our trends compilation page.) job approval of texas political leaders check back next week for more discussion of additional results on state policy and other items in the august poll. for notices about new content, future poll results, and other texas politics project news, add your name to our mailing list using the form below. [correction: an earlier version of this post misreported the "someone else" and the "undecided" results for the presidential head to head trial ballots. the error has been corrected.] stay up to date on the latest polling results, analysis, events, and more from the texas politics project. we encourage you to republish our content, but ask that you follow these guidelines. 1. publish the author or authors' name(s) and the title as written on the original column, and give credit to the texas politics project at the university of texas at austin (and, if possible, a link back to texaspolitics.utexas.edu, or to the specific subpage where the content resides). 2. don't change the column in any way. 3. you can republish any multimedia (including, photos, videos, audio, or graphics) as long as you give proper attribution (either to the texas politics project, if not already included in the media, and to the media's author). 4. don't resell the column 5. feel free to publish it on a page surrounded by ads you've already sold, but don't sell ads against the column. 6. if we send you a request to change or remove our content from your site, you must agree to do so immediately. if you have any questions, feel free to email us at texaspolitics@laits.utexas.edu

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"even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it has become more important in people's minds over the course of the last three quarters, not less important," said jay campbell, partner at hart research, the democratic pollster for the survey. the survey also showed trump has a 35 point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19 point edge on the issue of crime and safety. harris leads on a variety of second tier issues, areas of high concern that rate below the economy. they include a 31 point harris advantage among voters most concerned about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care and 60 points on climate change. the question for harris is if the combined support on those lesser issues will be enough to overcome her deficits on the big economic questions. the two candidates are statistically tied on who would be better to bring positive change to the nation. issues of character appear to be keeping the race close. harris enjoys a 13 point edge when respondents were asked who has the better mental and physical health to be president. she leads trump by 10 points on who is more honest and trustworthy. yet both numbers show improvement for trump when compared with a september nbc news poll. and trump has improved his favorability ratings as well. his  13 point net favorability rating (positive minus negative) from august has improved to  6 nationally. views on harris are only a bit less negative at  10, compared with  8 in august. (she had risen to +3 in september in the nbc poll, but now appears to have given up her post convention gains.) harris fares better in the battleground states with a  5 net favorability rating, equal to trump's. the survey shows the american electorate cleaved along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some movement underneath the surface. the gender gap remains the most glaring split, but trump's net +17 support among men is larger than vice president harris' +12 among women. harris maintains a large 27 point lead among voters of color but lost 10 points compared with august. she has a 38 point lead among voters of color in the battleground states. compared with august, trump improved his numbers among less educated and lower income voters while harris is doing better with middle class and wealthier voters. "trump's advantage is because he's winning men by more than he's losing women," said micah roberts, partner with public opinion strategies, which served as the republican pollster for the survey. "it's a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it's just not as strong for harris among younger women, and older women especially." harris has an 8 point lead among women over 50 nationally, but is even with trump with the group in the battleground states. while the official measured rate of inflation has fallen sharply, the cnbc survey shows americans just aren't feeling it. three quarters of the public believe prices are still rising with a plurality of 45% saying they are going up faster than they were before. only 16% say prices have leveled off and just 6% see them declining; just 7% see their incomes going up faster than inflation, 27% say they are staying even with inflation and 63% say they are losing ground. at the same time, just 26% say the economy is excellent or good with 73% answering either fair or poor, a modest improvement from august. yet 37% of the public believes the economy will improve in the next year, the highest level in more than three years, an increase that typically occurs around election time and might be tied more to americans' views on the outcome of the election than their views on the economy. the full survey results can be viewed here. got a confidential news tip? we want to hear from you. sign up for free newsletters and get more cnbc delivered to your inbox get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. © 2025 cnbc llc. all rights reserved. a division of nbcuniversal data is a real time snapshot *data is delayed at least 15 minutes. global business and financial news, stock quotes, and market data and analysis. data also provided by
newsletter the president has narrowed the gap with donald trump, but trump still holds a small lead. by david leonhardt president biden has narrowed the gap with donald trump in the past few months, but trump still holds a small lead in the race for the presidency. that’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates’ first debate   a debate unlike any other in u.s. history. it will occur more than four months before election day and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. all previous general election presidential debates, dating to the first, in 1960, took place in october or late september. we’re devoting today’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning of the times’s 2024 polling averages. those averages combine survey results from many pollsters, both for the u.s. as a whole and for seven battleground states. i recommend reading my colleague nate cohn’s description of the averages in this article. as nate explains, biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his state of the union address in march. he then rose further after trump’s felony conviction last month. the two are now essentially tied in the national polls, around 46 percent, when robert f. kennedy is excluded from the question. with kennedy included, trump leads biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided. in both the two way and three way race, trump leads in the states likely to decide the outcome. “while he often leads by only a point or two, he does nonetheless hold the edge in pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, nevada, arizona and georgia   states that would be enough for mr. trump to win the electoral college and therefore the presidency,” nate writes. “of course, the election will not be held today and the polls will not be exactly right.” who’s leading the polls in the battleground states wisconsin michigan pennsylvania trump 42% 42 43 biden 41% 41 41 9% kennedy 8 7 nevada arizona georgia 42 43 44 37 38 37 9 10 8 north carolina 44 37 8 who’s leading the polls in the battleground states wisconsin michigan pennsylvania 42% 42 43 trump 41% 41 41 biden 9% kennedy 8 7 nevada arizona georgia 42 43 44 37 38 37 9 10 8 north carolina 44 37 8 note: averages may not add up to 100 because of support for other candidates or responses for “undecided.” source: polling averages by the new york times as of june 24. by the new york times

republican still mostly ahead in swing states but data suggests presumptive democratic nominee gaining ground a spate of opinion polls carried out since joe biden abandoned his presidential campaign last sunday show the vice president, kamala harris, closing the gap on donald trump but still narrowly trailing in a tight race. while still often narrowly behind, the ability of harris, now the presumptive democratic nominee, to gain ground on her republican opponent suggests her elevation to the top of the ticket has reset the presidential race, pollsters say, especially after weeks of plummeting democratic poll numbers under biden. fresh surveys carried out in battleground states show trump ahead mostly within error margins in the swing states of michigan, pennsylvania, arizona and georgia, while one survey showed the two are tied in wisconsin at 47% apiece.