A computer-implemented method for calculating estimated risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) hospitalization of a patient taking nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs includes the steps of obtaining patient values of a plurality of predictive factors, calculating an estimated risk from the patient values, and displaying the estimated risk, preferably on a monitor. The predictive factors may be age, global health status, proportion of time taking prednisone, occurrence of a previous GI side effect, and occurrence of a previous GI hospitalization. Preferably, the estimated risk is calculated from a Cox proportional hazard model, derived from a database of arthritis patients, using either continuous or categorical variables. The continuous model applies a standard Cox model to the predictive factors. The categorical model divides each predictive factor into categories, and assigns a point value to each predictive factor. The point values are added to derive a point total, which is converted to an estimated risk using a predetermined correlation between point total and estimated risk.
Predicting risk of serious gastrointestinal complications in patients taking nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs