A method and system for an agent-based evidential reasoning decision computer system for determining an adoption rate of a trend is provided. The system includes a plurality of nodes arranged in a tree structure. The plurality of nodes define an evidential reasoning algorithm where lower level nodes receive factors to be considered in the decision and each node assigns a likelihood of an outcome of the received factors, and generates an output to a subsequent higher level node or root of the tree structure. The system also includes a plurality of agent models organized in a hierarchical structure, each agent model comprising a respective set of the plurality of nodes and an output of the agent model, each agent model representing a member of a population, and an aggregator algorithm configured to combine the outputs of the plurality of agent models to generate an output representing an adoption rate.
Adoption simulation with evidential reasoning using agent models in a hierarchical structure