Systems and methods for using social network information to predict complex phenomena. According to one embodiment the system or method comprises a Support Vector Machine classifier utilized to infer a pre-determined state of an individual, location, or event based on information gathered from a social network dataset. A conditional random field model can then be used to predict an individual's propensity toward that pre-determined state using features derived from the social network dataset. Performance of the conditional random field model can be enhanced by including features that are not only based on the status of net work connections, but are also based on the estimated encounters with individuals having the pre-determined state, including individuals other than network connections.
USE OF SOCIAL INTERACTIONS TO PREDICT COMPLEX PHENOMENA