Thursday, March 19, 2009

Population ever again

I'll just put this update here: Not related perefectly, but there are Pittsburgh and Youngstown mentions in this article in Forbes by diasporan herself Lauren Sherman: America's Downsized Cities

Yeah, yeah, another year's worth of new census estimates of the region's population are out. Read the PG or the Trib versions of the story or the bigger picture from the AP.

Here is what is interesting for us. IMHO of course. Total net migration estimated for the Pittsburgh region over the last year is all of 708 more people who left compared to the number that arrived. So it's still true that more people are leaving, but 708 is a pretty small number for us. Here is what the net migration trends are for the Pittsburgh Region from the data just released:


I'll add a technical point that is important just a bit. This data reflects population as of July 1 each year. So the change data is for change through a 12 month period ending on July 1. So if there is some connection between this data and the ongoing recession, this data is really reflecting only the the early parts of the recession... it is now officially dated back to November 2007, but as of July 1, 2008 (the last estimate per this report) the recession's start had not yet been dated and some of the worst was yet to come..

As these things go, that's a pretty big difference from 2005 until recently. Still a negative number, but one of the smallest numbers since the early part of the 1990's when there was a brief period when net migration was positive. What may be causing that trend in lower net migration from Pittsburgh? Here are my quick blog musings on how relative economic conditions are affecting migration trends here. In that old post, the graphic I put together is from early last fall and could use updating.. point is probably a little bit stronger these days even.
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