 

Climate Change and World Food Security: A New Assessment

Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Fischer G, & Livermore M (1998). Climate Change and World Food Security: A New Assessment. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-99-012. Reprinted from Global Environmental Change, 9:S51-S67 [1999] [1998].

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Abstract

Building on previous work, quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hume et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 1998) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million (+/- 10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble members are selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked reduction in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario, the effect is even more severe, producing an estimated additional 70+ million people at risk of hunger in Africa.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint))
Research Programs: Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC)
Bibliographic Reference: Reprinted from Global Environmental Change; 9:S51-S67 [1999] [1998]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:10
Last Modified: 19 Jul 2016 07:11
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5646

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