Articles | Volume 21, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5273-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5273-2017
Research article
 | 
19 Oct 2017
Research article |  | 19 Oct 2017

Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions

Harm-Jan F. Benninga, Martijn J. Booij, Renata J. Romanowicz, and Tom H. M. Rientjes

Abstract. The paper presents a methodology that gives insight into the performance of ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems. We have developed an ensemble forecasting system for the Biała Tarnowska, a mountainous river catchment in southern Poland, and analysed the performance for lead times ranging from 1 to 10 days for low, medium and high streamflow and different hydrometeorological conditions. Precipitation and temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts served as inputs to a deterministic lumped hydrological (HBV) model. Due to a non-homogeneous bias in time, pre- and post-processing of the meteorological and streamflow forecasts are not effective. The best forecast skill, relative to alternative forecasts based on meteorological climatology, is shown for high streamflow and snow accumulation low-streamflow events. Forecasts of medium-streamflow events and low-streamflow events under precipitation deficit conditions show less skill. To improve performance of the forecasting system for high-streamflow events, the meteorological forecasts are most important. Besides, it is recommended that the hydrological model be calibrated specifically on low-streamflow conditions and high-streamflow conditions. Further, it is recommended that the dispersion (reliability) of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is enlarged by including the uncertainties in the hydrological model parameters and the initial conditions, and by enlarging the dispersion of the meteorological input forecasts.

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Short summary
Accurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Biała Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively.
{"cc_re__cc_re__cc_by_3_0": ["/a></nobr></li>\n                        </ul>\n                    </div>\n        </div>\n    </div>\n    \n        \n        <div class=\"ms-type row no-gutters d-none d-lg-flex mb-1 mt-0 align-items-center\">\n            <div class=\"col\">\n                <div class=\"row no-gutters align-items-center\">\n                    <div class=\"col-auto\">\n                                Research article\n                    </div>\n                        <div class=\"col\">\n                            &nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\" rel=\"license\" class=\"licence-icon-svg\"><img src=\"https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/2175966/ssl\"></a>\n                        </div>\n                </div>\n            </div>\n            <div class=\"col-auto text-right\">19 Oct 2017</div>\n        </div>\n        <div class=\"ms-type row no-gutters d-lg-none mb-1 align-items-center\">\n            <div class=\"col-12\">\n                Research article | \n                    <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\" rel=\"license\" class=\"licence-icon-svg \"><img", "nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\" rel=\"license\" class=\"licence-icon-svg\"><img src=\"https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/2175966/ssl\"></a>\n                        </div>\n                </div>\n            </div>\n            <div class=\"col-auto text-right\">19 Oct 2017</div>\n        </div>\n        <div class=\"ms-type row no-gutters d-lg-none mb-1 align-items-center\">\n            <div class=\"col-12\">\n                Research article | \n                    <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\" rel=\"license\" class=\"licence-icon-svg \"><img src=\"https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/2175966/ssl\"></a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<span>19 Oct 2017</span>\n            </div>\n        </div>\n    \n    <h1>Performance of ensemble streamflow forecasts under varied hydrometeorological conditions </h1>\n        <div class=\"mb-3 authors-with-affiliations\">\n            <nobr><span class=\"hover-cursor-pointer journal-contentLinkColor hover-underline\" data-toggle=\"modal\" \n                    data-target=\"#author425015\">Harm-Jan F. Benninga<a href=\"mailto:h.f"], "cc_re__cc_re__cc_by_4_0": ["le=\"width: 1784px; height: 330px;\" /></a></span>\r\n</div>\n\n                    </div>\n\n                </div>\n\n            </div>\n\n        </div>\n\n    </div>\n\n    <div class=\"links pb-4 pt-4\">\n\n        <div class=\"container\">\n\n            <div class=\"row align-items-center\">\n\n                <div class=\"col-12 col-xl-auto mt-3\">\n\n                    <div class=\"row align-items-start align-items-lg-center\">\n\n                        <div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-md-0 pl-md-0 text-center text-md-left\"><a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"fab fa-creative-commons fa-lg mr-1\"></i><i class=\"fab fa-creative-commons-by fa-lg\"></i></a> All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\" target=\"_blank\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License</a>.</div>\n\n                    </div>\n\n                </div>\n\n                <div class=\"col-12 text-center text-md-left col-lg-auto mt-3\">\n\n                    <div class=\"row align-items-center\">\n\n             ", "lass=\"row align-items-center\">\n\n                <div class=\"col-12 col-xl-auto mt-3\">\n\n                    <div class=\"row align-items-start align-items-lg-center\">\n\n                        <div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-md-0 pl-md-0 text-center text-md-left\"><a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"fab fa-creative-commons fa-lg mr-1\"></i><i class=\"fab fa-creative-commons-by fa-lg\"></i></a> All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\" target=\"_blank\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License</a>.</div>\n\n                    </div>\n\n                </div>\n\n                <div class=\"col-12 text-center text-md-left col-lg-auto mt-3\">\n\n                    <div class=\"row align-items-center\">\n\n                        <div class=\"col d-md-none px-0\"></div>\n\n                        <div class=\"col-auto pr-1\"><a href=\"https://www.hydrology-and-earth-system-sciences.net/about/contact.html\">Contact</a></div>\n\n                        <div class=\"col-au"], "copyright__copyright__copyright": ["ary\nAccurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Bia\u0142a Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively.", "ary\nAccurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Bia\u0142a Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively.", "ary\nAccurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Bia\u0142a Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively.", "ary\nAccurate flood and low-streamflow forecasting are important. The paper presents a methodology to evaluate ensemble streamflow-forecasting systems for different lead times; low, medium and high streamflow; and related runoff-generating processes. We applied the methodology to a study forecasting system of the Bia\u0142a Tarnowska River in Poland. The results provide valuable information about the forecasting system: in which conditions it can be used and how the system can be improved effectively."]}