(EDITOR'S NOTE; The As
sociated Press editors who
have contributed to this fore
cast of 1945 are:
Jack J. Bell, political news
editor; Howard W. Blakeslee,
science editor; Charles E.
Butterfield, radio editor;
I
Thomas Hagenbuch, financial
editor; DeWiti Mackenzie, war
and foreign affairs analyst;
Ovid A. Martin, farm writer;
Jack O'Brien, drama editor;
Dorothy Roe, women's editor;
Chip Royal, News-features
sports editor; John Selby, arts
editor; Harold W. Ward, labor
editor; David J. Wilkie, auto
motive editor.)
By EDITORS OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRESS
What happens in 1945 hinges
On one big IF and a WHEN.
If Germany surrenders early
in the year, changes will sweep
across the nation, affecting vir
tually all fields of activity. Here
is how new year prospects look
now: |
WAR. The immediate outlook
is fairly grim. The Hitlerian war
should end in 1945, but that
* 4M«ap won’t bring
P€aC€’ ** wtt
release a flood
of politico - so
M upheavals
lUvRi —some bloody—
which will
lt| sweep all of Eu
V* Qec-? rone. There will
be repercussions in Asia and in
the western hemisphere.
War with Japan will reach
its peak, but it will be a mi
racle if the Allies achieve yic
tory short of 1946. China will
hit rock bottom, broken mater
ially though not spiritually, and
dependent on the Allies to res
cue her. Russia will assume her
new title of dominant power of
Europe and Asia alike.
INDUSTRY: Prolonging of
>
war in Germany past 1944 and
the prospect of a longer Paci
fic campaign have dimmed in
dustry’s hopes for expanded
civilian goods production in
1945.
Reconversion timing has been
upset. It is now estimated it will
be at least six- ■■ ■
nonths after V-E
day before
“hard goods” —
refri g e r a t o r S^1
vacuum clean - ^
^rs,etc. — will j
b e available*?'/ / # , 'r’TToC'^
generally. Even then there
wont be enough to supply all
immediate needs.
A few new passenger cars
may appear in the second half
of the year. They will be slight
ly altered 1942 types, with
changes confined largely to
trimming, radiator grilles and
fender lines. Later, after the
first poet-war models, there will
be many changes in power
plants, transmissions and me
chanical designing generally.
Price increases apparently are
inevitable — estimates range
from ten to 40 percent over pre
war levels.
Scarcities will persist through
out the year. Textiles may come
into greater supply three
months after V-E. Fuel ration*
ing is likely to continue until
war with Japan is ended. There
probably will be no letup on
strained U. S. transportation
systems.
LABOR: Organized labor will
have big problems after Ger
many is defeated. Membership
may nose-dive as war produc
tion cuts down. The CIO, built
on war-boomed industrial or
ganization, fears this and is
planning for it.
Despite AFL overtures, a
CIO-AFL union appears re
S *
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mote. But the AFL still hopes I
to get back John L. Lewis and I
his 600,000 United Mine Work- j
ers.
With Germany’s fall, there is |
likely to be a large back-home
movement among the present
16,500,000 woman workers.
Many, however, will continue
their careers with ever broader
opportunities.
* * *
AGRICULTURE. The new
year puts two major problems
before farmers. They will have
to maintain near-record food
production for the military and
civilians, although still dhort of
labor and machinery, and plan
for reconversion to peace-time
conditions.
Eearly defeat of Germany could
pose the problem or preventing
a sharp break in foreign prices
and the start of a new farm de
pression such as occurred after
World War I.
• • *
FOOD> The outlook is one of
contrasts — shortages of some
items, plentiful supplies of
others. The situation points to
continued use of ration stamps
for better grades of meats, but
ter, sugar, canned foods, fruits,
cheese and a few other pro
cessed items, and to restricted
civilian consumption of fluid
milk. Poultry will be scarce
during the first part of the year.
Total supply of meats—partic
ularly pork and lamb—and of
sugar, fats and vegetable oils,
is expected to be smaller than in
1944. On the other hand, cereals,
truck crops, dried greens and
peas and eggs should be plenti
ful. Potatoes may be scarce in
the spring before new crops
come on the market.
-
POLITICS: Republicans will
be waiting watchfully for Dem
ocratic mistakes, planning a
Congressional comeback in 1946.
The G. O. P. high command
change
—1- with Herbert
Apv Brownell, Jr.,
vHr W stepping out as
national chair
,naD' G o v e r -
_I nor Thomas
E. Dewey will
patch fences for
his 1946 re-election race for the
New York governorship. If he
wins that, he will be in the
presidential picture again in
1948.
Candidacies may Degin to bud
for the 1948 Democratic presi
dential nomination. President
Roosevelt, who has killed off
similar moves in the past, may
let several hopefuls have their
fling. There’s still discontent in
the Democratic south, aimed at
party ‘‘domination” by big-cifty
machines and labor. The CIO,
flushed with its role in the
fourth-term victory, may reach
out into new fields.
America’s part in an interna-1
tional organization to keep
peace is likely to top all home
front issues.
SCIENCE: Four important
medical trends are indicated.
The insect powder DDT will
curb much malaria and can
conceivably wipe out that di
sease—iand typhus fever—even
tually. In the United States,
where neither disease is preva
lent. The powder will be effec- j
ive- in reducing digestive
troubles spread by flies and some
other household insects. Peni
cillin will develop further uses
and may start tjhe elimination
of syphilis. Blood substitutes
and new drugs and remedies
made from human blood are in
prospect Under leadership of
sulfa, an important advance can
be expected in preventive med
icine.
The year will see rapid prog
ress toward faster and higher,
and ultimately improved planes,
due to jet and rocket propul
sion. These developments will
be military, and their civilian
uses are unlikely to attract much
attention in 1L45. But the jets
—and even Germany’s V-2’s—
are laying foundtation for new
means of passenger travel.
• * *
FASHION: There probably
will be greater femininity, less
severe lines, a new elegance in
after-dark atttre, preparing for
the celebration of V-E Day.
* * *
SPORTS- More schools,
leagues and performers will
come out of war-forced retire
ment. Many athletes who have
been discharged from the ser
vices will be back in 1945 to
start what should be the great
est boom sports has known.
Baseball expects to gain a few
old hands who should bring the
standard of the game back to
normal. New boxing faces should
bring a return of the big gates,
toppd by a Billy Conm-Jaa
Louis championship bout. Amy
(Continued on Page 7)
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