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Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 4/3/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 4/2/2021
Game: Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL
TV: Bally Sports Detroit
Odds/Point Spread: Red Wings (+336) Lightning (-389)
Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning (25-9-2) play the Detroit Red Wings (12-21-5) at Amalie Arena on Saturday. The odds on this game have the Red Wings priced at +336 and the Lightning are at -389. The over/under has been set at 5.5.
The Red Wings were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 3-2 defeat against the Panthers their last time on the ice. The Red Wings left a lot to be desired in terms of their offense in the loss. In the outing, they converted 2 of the 27 shots they put on goal. They also had 2 power play attempts but didn't get a goal. Detroit compiled 16 penalty minutes in this matchup. The Corsi for the Red Wings sat at 45 and the Corsi against at the end of this game was 42 which means they had a Corsi percentage of 51.7%. Their Fenwick came in at 31 and the Fenwick Against sat at 35, giving them a Fenwick percentage of 47.0%. They garnered 29 face-off victories when at even strength and were beaten on 25 opportunities to gain puck control. The offensive zone starts for them were rated at 57.4% and they had a PDO of 100.0 in this one.
In regard to their scoring capabilities, the Detroit Red Wings have racked up 82 goals (29th in the league) so far this year and have allowed 122. For the current season, the have a total of 29 points and their points percentage sits at .382. Detroit comes into the game with 110 power play opportunities and they have scored 13 goals during those advantages, garnering them a rate of 11.82%. While playing at even strength, the Red Wings let the opposition score 93 goals while earning 69 of their own. Detroit has taken 1,059 shots and is the owner of a shooting percentage of 7.7%. The Red Wings have had 1,184 shots taken against them and have a save percentage of .897. Detroit Red Wings opponents have recorded 109 power play opportunities (17th in professional hockey) and have come away with 29 goals in those chances.
The player guarding the cage in this matchup is Thomas Greiss. Opponents have tallied 728 goals versus Greiss in his pro hockey career and his goals against average is 2.68. Greiss has played in 305 games over the course of his professional hockey career. His save percentage sits at .913 during his 16,313 mins between the pipes. He has amassed an overall record of 139-104-33 and got the start in 267 games. From the beginning of his pro career to now, Greiss has 146 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .547. Greiss has seen 8,362 shot attempts taken against him and has recorded 7,634 saves.
Their last time out, Tampa Bay opposed the Blue Jackets in a game where the Lightning notched a victory by a final score of 3-2. Tampa Bay wound up with a 45.9% Corsi rating. This Corsi rating is telling of the kind of game that Tampa Bay played and you could say that they played like a middle of the road team. Their Fenwick rate was 45.5% by compiling a Fenwick of 35 and the Blue Jackets having racked up a 42 Fenwick at even strength. They had a PDO of 101 and they finished the game with an oZS percentage of 48.4%. The Lightning converted 3 goals of the 34 shots on goal they tried. They had 3 power play chances in this matchup and earned 1 out of those opportunities.
The Lightning have earned 94 goals at even strength and 32 goals (1st in the NHL) while having more men on the ice. Tampa Bay has taken 1,096 shots (12th in the NHL) and has earned a shooting percentage of 11.50%, while allowing the other team 1,019 shots. So far this year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have accumulated 126 goals, 52 points, in addition to a points percentage of .722. They have recorded 116 power play chances and they have accumulated a power play rate of 27.59%. They have earned a penalty kill rate of 81.97% on their opponents 122 power play tries, and their save percentage comes in at 91.6%. They have permitted 86 goals to be scored by way of 64 goals at even strength and 22 goals while they had less men on the ice.
Across the ice you are likely to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. Teams are averaging 2.50 goals per game and he has relinquished 699 goals in total. Vasilevskiy's rate of quality starts comes out to 56.5% and he has 157 quality starting assignments in his career. He has started in 278 games and has played 16,793 mins. Vasilevskiy is the owner of a lifetime mark of 181-78-19 and has participated in 288 games. He has a tally of 8,045 saves out of the 8,744 shots attempted, giving him a percentage of .920.
Who will win tonight's NHL game ATS?
Guy's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-389)
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Detroit Red Wings - Twitter
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Expert: Raphael Esparza (VSI)