# Stock market today: Asian shares are mixed ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates
By **ELAINE KURTENBACH**
December 12, 2023. 11:25 PM EST

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**BANGKOK (AP)** - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday after Wall Street rose to its highest level since early 2022, slightly below its record high, following a report showing inflation in the United States is behaving pretty much as expected.

Benchmarks declined in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Seoul but rose in Tokyo and Sydney. U.S. futures edged higher while oil prices slipped.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" report measured business sentiment among major manufacturers at plus 12, up from plus 9 in October and plus 5 in June. The survey measures corporate sentiment by subtracting the number of companies saying business conditions are negative from those replying they are positive.

"The continued improvement in the 'tankan' suggests that the drop in Q3 GDP was just a blip, but we still expect GDP growth to slow sharply next year," Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a commentary.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% to 32,985.19 and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was up 0.4% at 7,263.30.

Shares in China declined on what analysts said was disappointment over a lack of major stimulus measures from a major economic planning conference that ended on Tuesday.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.7% to 16,252.67 and the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.5% at 2,989.15. South Korea's Kospi lost 0.6% to 2,521.81.

Taiwan's Taiex edged 0.1% higher and Bangkok's SET lost0.5%.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.5% to sit just 3.2% below its all-time high set at the start of 2022. It closed at 4,643.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 36,577.94 and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.7% to 14,533.40.

Big Tech stocks helped lead the way following solid gains for Nvidia, Meta Platforms and some other of Wall Street's largest and most influential stocks. They overshadowed a 12.4% tumble for Oracle, whose revenue for the latest quarter fell short of analysts' forecasts.

On Wall Street, Choice Hotels International fell 1.9% after it said it's taking its buyout offer for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts directly to its rival's shareholders. Choice already owns 1.5 million shares of Wyndham, whose board has cited concerns about value and regulatory approval while rebuffing Choice in the past.

Toymaker Hasbro slipped 1.1% after it announced additional job cuts as part of its cost-cutting program.

But Wall Street's spotlight was on the inflation report, which showed U.S. consumers paid prices for gasoline, food and other living costs last month that were 3.1% higher overall than a year earlier. That was a slight deceleration from October's 3.2% inflation and exactly in line with economists' expectations.

The data likely changes nothing about what the Federal Reserve will do at its latest meeting on interest rates, which ends Wednesday. The widespread expectation is still for the Fed to keep its main interest rate steady.

The Fed has already yanked its main interest rate from virtually zero early last year to more than 5.25%, its highest level since 2001. It's hoping to slow the economy and hurt investment prices by exactly the right amount: enough to stamp out high inflation but not so much that it causes a steep recession.

On the winning side of Wall Street, Icosavax soared 49.5% after AstraZeneca said it would buy the biopharmaceutical company for at least $838 million in cash, with the price tag rising if certain milestones are met.

Crude oil prices fell to take some more pressure off inflation. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude gave up 20 cents to $68.41 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, it lost $2.71 to settle at $68.61.

It had been above $93 in September but has been coming down amid worries about demand from the global economy failing to keep up with available supplies.

Brent crude, the international standard, slipped 23 cents to $73.01 per barrel. It fell $2.79 on Tuesday to $73.24 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar rose to 145.60 Japanese yen from 145.45 yen. The euro slipped to $1.0788 from $1.0793.


# How rising prices for restaurants, car repair and other services kept inflation up last month
By **CHRISTOPHER RUGABER**
December 12, 2023. 3:24 PM EST

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**WASHINGTON (AP)** - Held down by sinking gas prices, U.S. inflation was mostly unchanged last month. But underlying price pressures - from apartment rents, restaurant meals, auto insurance and many other services - remained stubbornly high.

Last month's inflation data arrived just a day before the Federal Reserve will end a two-day policy meeting and announce its latest decisions on interest rates. The Fed is expected on Wednesday to keep its key rate unchanged for the third straight time.

Most economists expect the rate of price increases to keep slowing in the coming months. Though the decline could follow a bumpy path, inflation should fall much closer to the Fed's 2% target by the end of 2024. Wages and rental prices, among other items, are now increasing more gradually.

In November, much cheaper gas held down overall prices, which rose just 0.1% from October, the government said. Compared with a year ago, inflation dipped to 3.1%, down from a 3.2% year-over-year rise in October.

Prices in the vast service sector, though, still surged uncomfortably fast. Core prices - which exclude volatile food and energy costs and are considered a better guide to the path of inflation - rose 0.3% from October to November, slightly faster than the 0.2% increase the previous month. Measured from a year ago, core prices were up 4%, the same as in October.

## WHERE IS INFLATION LIKELY GOING FROM HERE?
America's consumers will probably continue to feel relief in the form of milder price increases in the coming months. And in some areas, notably the prices of physical goods, many items are actually becoming cheaper rather than just rising more slowly.

Furniture and appliances both dropped in price last month. They're now cheaper, on average, than they were a year ago. Clothing prices, which fell from October to November, are up just 1.1% from a year earlier. And though used cars jumped 1.6% last month, they're down 3.8% from a year earlier.

Housing costs, though, were again among the key factors lifting inflation. Rental prices rose 0.5% from October to November and are up 6.9% in the past year. Although those increases are down from recent peaks, they're still much sharper than they were pre-pandemic.

At the same time, new apartment buildings are flooding the market, and real-time data providers like Zillow and ApartmentList show rent growth for new apartments tumbling. As those prices feed into the government's measure, they should help cool inflation.

Wage growth, while still rising at a healthy clip, is also cooling. Though they rose 4% last month from a year earlier, according to the November jobs report, that's down from a peak of nearly 6% nearly two years ago. Slower wage growth should ease inflationary pressures because employers won't have to raise prices so much to cover their labor costs.

"The main takeaway is we're on that path towards returning to the Fed's 2% target," said Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS. "But we're getting there slowly."

Prices are cooling - or even becoming cheaper - for some of the items that have been leaving the biggest marks on consumers' budgets. Gas prices, for example, sank 6% just from October to November. From a peak of $5 about a year and a half ago, the national average has dropped to $3.15 a gallon as of Monday, according to AAA.

And grocery prices ticked up just 0.1% in November and are only 1.7% higher than they were a year ago. Bread, beef, chicken and pork prices all dropped.

## WHAT DO AMERICANS THINK?
Surveys show that Americans are mostly gloomy about the economy, despite steady job growth, a low unemployment rate and falling inflation. Yet when it comes to consumer prices, their outlook has improved recently.

For example, Americans now foresee inflation rising just 3.4% in the year ahead, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That level of expected inflation is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels and is the lowest since the spring of 2021 - down from a peak of 6.8% in June 2022. (Inflation expectations typically exceed the actual inflation figures.)

Lower inflation expectations are important because they are often self-fulfilling. If, for example, Americans expect inflation to rise more quickly, they then typically adjust their own behavior accordingly. Most significantly, they may demand - and receive - higher pay, which would then pressure their employers to raise prices further.

Fed officials have often pointed to low inflation expectations as a reason why they may succeed in pulling off a rare "soft landing," in which inflation would fall back to 2%, without causing a sharp recession.

## WHAT WILL THE FED DO NEXT?
The Fed is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when its latest meeting ends Wednesday. Inflation still exceeds the Fed's 2% annual target, which is why its officials are set to keep rates high. But inflation is also cooling faster than policymakers expected, which means the Fed's policymakers likely see no reason to further raise rates.

Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed optimism about slowing inflation, he said earlier this month that it was "premature" to assume that the Fed was done raising its benchmark rate or to speculate about rate cuts, which many on Wall Street expect as early as spring.

The stickiness of inflation in the economy's service sector will likely keep Powell from signaling a clear end to rate hikes or acknowledging the prospect of future rate cuts. The Fed chair has been scrutinizing the costs of services as a guide to whether underlying inflationary trends are cooling.

Michael Gapen, chief economist at Bank of America, said Tuesday's persistent inflation data "fits the 'wait and see and be careful' narrative that the Fed is constructing."

"In terms of building confidence that you're in a disinflationary environment and opening the door to cuts," Gapen added, "I think you have to say, well, we need more time to assess where services inflation is is going."

Still, if indeed the Fed leaves its key rate unchanged for the third straight time, it would suggest that it's probably done raising borrowing costs.

The central bank has raised its key rate to about 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years, in a determined drive to conquer inflation. Its rate hikes have made mortgages, auto loans, business borrowing and other forms of credit much costlier, reflecting the Fed's goal of slowing borrowing and spending enough to tame inflation.


# Speculation about eventual rate cuts is rising, but Fed is set to leave interest rates unchanged
By **CHRISTOPHER RUGABER**
December 11, 2023. 11:37 AM EST

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**WASHINGTON (AP)** - With inflation edging closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, its policymakers are facing - and in some cases fueling - hopes that they will make a decisive shift in policy and cut interest rates next year, possibly as soon as spring.

Such a move would reduce borrowing costs across the economy, making mortgages, auto loans and business borrowing less expensive. Stock prices could rise, too, though share prices have already risen in expectation of cuts, potentially limiting any further rise.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though, has recently downplayed the idea that rate reductions are nearing. With the central bank poised to keep its key short-term rate unchanged when it meets this week, Powell hasn't yet signaled that the Fed is conclusively done with its hikes. Speaking recently at Spelman College in Atlanta, the Fed chair cautioned that "it would be premature to conclude with confidence" that the Fed has raised its benchmark rate high enough to fully defeat inflation.

But the Fed's two-day meeting that ends Wednesday will mark the third straight time that its officials have kept their key rate unchanged, lending weight to the widespread assumption that rate hikes are over.

The economy, after all, is headed in the direction the Fed wants: On Tuesday, when the government releases the November inflation report, it's expected to show that annual consumer price increases slowed to 3.1%, according to a survey of economists by FactSet, down sharply from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

And job openings have declined, which means companies are less desperate to hire and feel less pressure to sharply raise wages, which can accelerate inflation. Consumers are still spending, though more modestly, and the economy is still expanding.

Such trends suggest progress toward what economists call a "soft landing," in which inflation reaches the Fed's 2% target without causing a recession. Analysts are increasingly encouraged by what they say is an unusually smooth adjustment to lower inflation.

That sunnier outlook represents a shift in thinking. Last year, many economists had insisted that defeating inflation would require a sharp recession and high unemployment. In fact, falling inflation, without an accompanying recession or job losses, is "historically unprecedented," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a recent note.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview with The Associated Press last month that the United States is on track this year for the fastest annual drop in inflation on record. If so, Goolsbee said, the result could be a "bigger soft landing than conventional wisdom believes has ever been possible."

That said, a soft landing is hardly a sure thing. If, for example, the Fed miscalculated and kept interest rates too high for too long, it could eventually derail the economy and tip it into a recession.

"There's more risk of a recession than a re-acceleration in inflation at these interest rates," said Julia Coronado, president of MarcoPolicy Perspectives, an economic research firm. "So ultimately, the next move is likely to be a cut because of that."

The timing of any rate cuts will depend on the health of the economy. A recession - or the threat of one - would likely prompt more, and earlier, interest rate reductions by the Fed.

Yet Friday's jobs report for November showed that businesses are still adding jobs at a healthy pace, and the unemployment rate dropped to a low 3.7% from 3.9%. Such figures suggested that the most-anticipated recession in decades is not imminent. Investors have since pushed back their expectations for the first Fed rate cut from March to May.

The Fed could cut rates this year even if the economy plows ahead, as long as inflation kept falling. A steady slowdown in price increases would have the effect of raising inflation-adjusted interest rates, thereby making borrowing costs higher than the Fed intends. Reducing rates, in this scenario, would simply keep inflation-adjusted borrowing costs from rising.

Yet economists say any rate cuts in response to lower inflation may take longer than Wall Street expects because the Fed will want to be sure inflation is in check before making such a move.

Jim Bullard, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and now dean of Purdue University's business school, said that while he thinks the Fed is on track for a soft landing, the policymakers must be cautious about rate cuts.

"I don't think you want to be too early on that, because if you start the process of cutting the policy rate and then inflation goes back up, I think that could cause a lot of problems," Bullard said. Such premature cuts have been blamed for the Fed's failure to quell inflation in the 1970s.

And if job gains and economic growth remain healthy, then perhaps rate cuts aren't needed anytime soon, Bullard added.

"Why lower the policy rate if the real economy is doing just fine?" he asked. "You might as well just sit back and enjoy the disinflation."

Either way, when the Fed issues its quarterly economic projections Wednesday, they will include a forecast of where its policymakers think their key rate will be at the end of 2024. Coronado expects only two rate cuts to be penciled in - half the number that financial markets now expect.

If the Fed does cut rates twice in 2024, the first one may not occur until as late as fall. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says her firm doesn't expect the first rate cut until the third quarter of the year.

"The Fed is going to want to see a bit more progress before contemplating rate cuts," she said. "Financial markets have gotten pretty ahead of themselves in our view. We think rate hikes are done, but it's going to be many months before the Fed starts cutting rates."


# Biden goes into 2024 with the economy getting stronger, but voters feel horrible about it
By **JOSH BOAK**
December 11, 2023. 10:39 AM EST

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**WASHINGTON (AP)** - President Joe Biden goes into next year's election with a vexing challenge: Just as the U.S. economy is getting stronger, people are still feeling horrible about it.

Pollsters and economists say there has never been as wide a gap between the underlying health of the economy and public perception. The divergence could be a decisive factor in whether the Democrat secures a second term next year. Republicans are seizing on the dissatisfaction to skewer Biden, while the White House is finding less success as it tries to highlight economic progress.

"Things are getting better and people think things are going to get worse - and that's the most dangerous piece of this," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has worked with Biden. Lake said voters no longer want to just see inflation rates fall - rather, they want an outright decline in prices, something that last happened on a large scale during the Great Depression.

"Honestly, I'm kind of mystified by it," she said.

By many measures, the U.S. economy is rock solid. Friday's employment report showed that employers added 199,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%. Inflation has plummeted in little over a year from a troubling 9.1% to 3.2% without causing a recession - a phenomenon that some once skeptical economists have dubbed "immaculate."

Yet people remain dejected about the economy, according to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The preliminary December figures issued Friday showed a jump in sentiment as people seem to recognize that inflation is cooling. But the index is still slightly below its July level.

In a possible warning sign for Biden, people surveyed for the index brought up the 2024 election. Sentiment rose dramatically more among Republicans than Democrats, potentially suggesting that GOP voters became more optimistic about winning back the White House.

"Consumers have been feeling broadly uneasy about the economy since the pandemic, and they are still coming to grips with the notion that we are not returning to the pre-pandemic 'normal,'" Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the survey, said of the overall trend in recent months.

Jared Bernstein, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, stressed that a strong underlying economy is "absolutely necessary" to eventually lifting consumer sentiment. His argument is that as the economy continues to improve, more people will recognize the benefits and sentiment will improve.

"We've got to keep fighting to lower costs and build on the progress that we've made," Bernstein said. "We just need more time to get these gains to working Americans - that's our plan."

The White House has made three major shifts in its messaging in hopes of building up confidence in Biden's economic leadership. The president this summer began to pepper his speeches with the term "Bidenomics" to describe his policies, only to have Republicans latch onto the word as a point of attack.

White House officials have pointed out specific items for which prices have fallen outright. They noted lower prices for turkeys during Thanksgiving as well as for eggs. Biden repeatedly emphasizes that he lowered insulin costs for Medicare participants, while other officials discuss how gasoline prices have dropped from their peak.

Second, Biden recently started to blame inflation on corporations that hiked prices when they saw an opportunity to improve their profits, bringing more prominence to an argument first used when gasoline prices spiked. The president's argument is suspicious to many economists, yet the intended message to voters is that Biden is fighting for them against those he blames for fueling inflation.

"Let me be clear: Any corporation that is not passing these savings on to the consumers needs to stop their price gouging," Biden said recently in Pueblo, Colorado. "The American people are tired of being played for suckers."

And Biden is now going after the track record of former President Donald Trump, the current GOP front-runner. Biden's campaign sent out a statement after Friday's employment report that said, " Despite his claims of being a jobs president, Donald Trump had the worst jobs record since the Great Depression, losing nearly three million jobs."

The Republican counter to Biden has been to dismiss the positive economic data and focus on how voters are feeling. As the annual inflation rate has fallen, GOP messaging has focused instead on multi-year increases in consumer prices without necessarily factoring in wage gains. And Republican lawmakers have argued that people should trust their gut on the economy instead of the statistics cited by Biden.

"Joe Biden's message to them is just this: He says don't believe your lying eyes," Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyoming, said in a recent floor speech.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, put the blame solely on Biden for inflation and people feeling downtrodden.

"The challenge is rising cost of living," said Youngkin, speaking at a Monday event in Washington hosted by Bloomberg News. "And it's just clear over the course of now the last three years of the Biden economy we have seen inflation really run away from a lot of folks and 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck."

Biden's speeches over the past two years have done little to improve his anemic polling on the economy. Administration officials had once assumed that better economic numbers would overcome any doubts among voters, only to find that the negativity stayed even as the U.S. economy became likely to avoid a recession once forecasted by economists.

Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, has been surprised by the anger generated online when she has noted the signs of a strong economy.

A typical U.S. household is better off than it was in 2020. Inequality has lessened somewhat in recent years as wage growth has favored poorer workers. Yet people still seem rattled and disconnected by the shock of the pandemic, the arrival of government aid and the inflation that followed as hiring improved.

"People have really been jerked around," Sahm said. "Things have been turned on and off. Everything has moved fast. It's been disruptive and confusing. We're just tired."

There is no solitary cause for this gap between the major data and public feeling. But the experts trying to make sense of things have multiple theories about what's going on. Besides the pandemic's impact, it's possible that social media has distorted how people feel about the economy as they watch the posh lifestyles of influencers. Many people also judge the economy based on their own political beliefs, rather than the underlying numbers.

It could simply be that people need time to adjust after a period of rising inflation. As a result, there's a lag before a slowing rate of inflation boosts how consumers feel, according to a recent analysis by economists Ryan Cummings and Neale Mahoney.

"Sentiment is still being weighed down by the high inflation we had last year," Cummings said. "As that recedes further into the rearview mirror, its effects are likely to diminish."

Another possibility is that the loss of pandemic aid from the government left people materially poorer. Millions of households got checks from the government and an expanded child tax credit deposited directly into their accounts. Republicans blamed this funding for feeding inflation, but the money also initially helped to shelter people from the pain of rising prices.

Adjusting for government transfers and taxes, the average annual income for someone in the lower half of earners was $34,800 when Biden took office, according to an analysis provided by Gabriel Zucman, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

That average fell to $26,100 by March 2023 in a sign that wage growth could not make up for the loss of government aid.

Samuel Rines, an investment strategist at Corbu, found that companies including Pepsi, Kraft-Heinz, Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark latched onto the higher food and energy prices after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine to boost their own products' prices and increase profits.

Earnings reports suggest that consumers started to tire of some companies' double-digit price increases this summer, prompting those companies to indicate that future prices increases will be closer to the historic average of 2%.

Biden can reasonably argue that companies took advantage of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic to raise their prices, Rines said. But the increases happened 12 to 18 months ago and Biden's current argument doesn't apply to what businesses are doing now.

Rines said of the president's message on price gouging: "It's pretty much 18 months too late."


# Stock market today: Asia markets rise ahead of US consumer prices update
By **DAMIAN J. TROISE** and **ALEX VEIGA**
December 11, 2023. 11:18 PM EST

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Asia markets opened higher following a positive close on Wall Street. Investors are eagerly awaiting a crucial U.S. inflation report later in the day, which will likely set the tone for the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year on Wednesday.

U.S. futures and oil prices advanced.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 0.5% to 32,959.50. Data released on Tuesday showed the wholesale prices in Japan rose by 0.3% from the previous year in November, which marked the slowest rate of increase in almost three years, suggesting a moderation in inflationary pressure in the economy.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.1% to 16,367.00, and the Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% higher, to 2,993.65.

Chinese leaders are holding an annual economic conference expected to wrap up Tuesday with pledges to spur stable growth.

In Seoul, the Kospi was up 0.4% at 2,534.15. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.5% to 7,233.90.

India's Sensex gained 0.2%, while the SET in Bangkok lost 0.3%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 4,622.44, finishing at its highest level in 20 months. The Dow gained 0.4% to 36,404.93 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% to close at 14,432.49.

The muted gains follow a six-week winning streak by the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 is up 20.4% for the year and the Nasdaq is up 37.9%.

Cigna surged 16.7% for the biggest gain among S&P 500 stocks after the health insurer announced a $10 billion stock buyback, and the Wall Street Journal reported that the company is no longer pursuing a merger with Humana.

Macy's jumped 19.4% following reports that an investor group is launching a bid to take the storied retailer private for $5.8 billion.

On Tuesday, the government will release its November report on consumer inflation. Analysts expect the report to show that inflation continued slowing to 3.1% from 3.2% in October. On Wednesday, the government will release its November report on inflation at the wholesale level, which is also expected to show that the rate of inflation is easing.

Wall Street is overwhelmingly betting that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% into early 2024 and could start cutting rates by the middle of that year. Analysts are also becoming more comfortable with the possibility that the central bank can pull off a "soft landing," which refers to inflation easing under high interest rates without the economy falling into a recession.

"With inflation coming down faster than expected, it now appears likely that the Fed will refrain from additional rate hikes," Brian Rose, a senior U.S. economist at UBS, said in a note to investors. "At the same time, inflation is still too high and the labor market is still too tight for the Fed to consider cutting rates soon."

Strong consumer spending and a solid jobs market have provided a bulwark to the broader economy, where growth has slowed but has so far avoided stalling. The government's jobs report on Friday showed that U.S. employers added more jobs last month than economists expected. Workers' wages also rose more than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly improved.

Several big companies will report their earnings this week and are among the few remaining to release their results. Software company Adobe will report on Wednesday and Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants will release its results on Friday.

Treasury yields were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 4.22%.

In energy trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil added 25 cents to $71.57 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It gained 0.1% Monday. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 24 cents to $76.27 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar fell to 145.60 Japanese yen from 146.16 yen. The euro rose to $1.0769 from $1.07613.


# Solid US hiring lowers unemployment rate in latest sign of a still-sturdy job market
By **CHRISTOPHER RUGABER**
December 8, 2023. 5:16 PM EST

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**WASHINGTON (AP)** - U.S. employers added a healthy 199,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell, fresh signs that the economy could achieve an elusive "soft landing," in which inflation would return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target without causing a steep recession.

Friday's report from the Labor Department showed that the unemployment rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%, not far above a five-decade low of 3.4% in April. The jobless rate has now remained below 4% for nearly two years, the longest such streak since the late 1960s.

Last month's job gain was inflated by the return of about 40,000 formerly striking auto workers and actors, who were not at work in October but were back on the job in November.

The latest jobs report and other recent data portray an economy and a labor market that, while still sturdy, are downshifting back to pre-pandemic norms. Businesses are hiring but are less desperate to fill huge numbers of jobs. More Americans have come off the sidelines to look for work, and immigration has jumped this year.

As a result, employers are finding it easier to hire, with fewer complaints of worker shortages and less pressure to aggressively raise pay, which can fuel inflation.

"What we wanted was a strong but moderating labor market, and that's what we saw in the November report," said Robert Frick, an economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union.

A cooling job market is also just what the Fed was hoping to achieve as it sought to slow the economy and inflation with its rapid interest rate hikes in the past year and a half. Hiring has averaged just over 200,000 a month in the past three months, down from an average of about 320,000 in the same period last year.

And most of last month's job gains were concentrated in just a few sectors. The health care industry - doctors' offices and hospitals - added 93,000 jobs in November. Hotels and restaurants added 40,000, and governments 49,000, accounting for nearly all the job growth. By contrast, retailers, shipping and warehousing companies, and temporary help agencies all cut jobs.

Still, last month's hiring gain raised the proportion of Americans who are employed to 60.5%, the highest level since the pandemic struck, though it remains below the pre-COVID level of 61.1%.

In the meantime, wages are growing at a slower but still-healthy pace. In November, average hourly pay rose 4% from a year earlier, matching the previous month's figure, which was the smallest since June 2021. Still, average pay is now growing faster than inflation, which should support consumer spending.

And layoffs remain low, according to government data, despite job cuts at such companies as Panera Bread, a restaurant chain, and Spotify, the music streaming platform, which cited higher interest rates as a reason it had to cut about 1,500 jobs globally.

Becky Frankiewicz, president of the staffing giant Manpower Group North America, said more employers are moving workers they may not need in one part of the company to another division rather than laying them off. Many companies still recall the difficulty they had finding workers during the pandemic and want to hold onto staff.

"Everything we see continues to point to a slow glide into a cooler labor market," she said.

Aaron Seyedian, owner of a small cleaning company based in Takoma Park, Maryland, says his business is still growing and hiring. He has enough demand to add five workers to his 30-person staff.

Seyedian's company, "Well-Paid Maids," has just raised its starting pay from $23 to $24 an hour. He said he hasn't had any trouble finding people to hire.

"From my perspective," Seyedian said, "the economy is still strong, and people still want to spend money."

For the Fed, Friday's jobs report won't likely alter the near-certainty that it will keep interest rates unchanged for the third straight time when it meets next week. The central bank has raised its key rate 11 times since March 2022, from near zero to roughly 5.4%. The result has been much more expensive mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing.

Most economists and Wall Street traders think the Fed's next move will be to cut rates, though the strength in Friday's jobs report could lead the central bank to keep rates at a peak for a longer period. Before the jobs report, Wall Street traders foresaw a 55% likelihood that the Fed would cut rates at its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch, tool. Now, they don't expect the first cut until May.

Guy Berger, former principal economist at the career website LinkedIn, said the job market's resilience means the Fed can keep rates high to fight inflation without worrying so much about triggering a recession.

"If we're not cooling, what's the rush?" to cut rates, Berger said.

Many of the most recent economic figures have pointed toward a potential soft landing. Companies are advertising fewer job openings, and Americans are switching jobs less often than they did a year ago, trends that typically slow wage growth and inflation pressures.

Most economists expect growth to slow and inflation will continue to decline. The economy is expected to expand at just a 1.5% annual rate in the final three months of this year, down from a scorching 5.2% pace in the July-September quarter. Cooler growth should help bring down inflation while still supporting a modest pace of hiring.

Inflation has tumbled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to just 3.2% last month. And according to a different inflation measure that the Fed prefers, prices rose at just a 2.5% annual rate in the past six months - not far above the central bank's 2% target.

Christopher Waller, a key Fed official who typically favors higher rates, buoyed the markets' expectations last week for rate hikes when he suggested that if inflation kept falling, the Fed could cut rates as early as spring.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though, pushed back against such speculation last Friday, when he said it was "premature to conclude" that the Fed has raised its benchmark rate high enough to quell inflation. And it was too soon, he added, to "speculate" about when the Fed might cut rates.

But Powell also said interest rates are "well into" restrictive territory, meaning that they're clearly constraining growth. Many analysts took that remark as a signal that the Fed is done raising rates.


# Inflation eased in 2023. That's giving investors hope for a gentler Federal Reserve next year
By **DAMIAN J. TROISE**
December 7, 2023. 8:00 AM EST

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**NEW YORK (AP)** - Inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and solid gains for the market next year.

Stocks rallied to their best month of the year in November as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation. The economy has cooled under the weight of rising interest rates, as the central bank intended, but remains surprisingly resilient.

Easing inflation and a solid economy heading into 2024 have increased the chance that the central bank could achieve a "soft landing" for the economy. That means inflation easing back to the central bank's target rate of 2% under high interest rates without the economy slipping into a recession.

"Importantly, the soft-landing scenario is very much at play here, with market participants anticipating the 'good' rate cuts to take place: those that the Fed is able to, but not forced to make," said Katie Nixon, Chief Investment Officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.

A steep drop in gasoline prices helped slow inflation and broader energy prices have been falling throughout the year. U.S. crude oil prices are down about 10% in 2023.

Consumer electronic prices have also eased, along with some groceries. Consumers have seemingly shifted their spending, which is still strong but has slowed overall.

Inflation fell to 3% in November, according to a government report on personal spending that is the Fed's preferred measure. It peaked at 7.1% in 2022. Rates of inflation have fallen even more steeply elsewhere, slipping to 2.4% in Europe last month, the lowest in over two years. Much of that easing has been because of lower energy costs. Inflation peaked in Europe in 2022 at 10.6%.

"Slowing growth, slowing inflation is our base case scenario for 2024, creating a favorable backdrop for stocks and bonds," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer and founding partner at Cresset.

The S&P 500 hit its highest point of the year on Dec. 1, reaching 4,594.63 points. Analysts expect that the index will finally breach 4,600, a level that the market has struggled to surpass as it advanced in 2023.

Inflation is expected to continue easing through 2024 and Wall Street is betting that the Fed will start cutting interest rates by mid-year. That could add more fuel to corporate earnings, which helps drive stock prices. Stock values are typically determined by how much profit a company generates and how much investors are willing to pay for each $1 of that. Investors typically look ahead, which means stocks have likely already factored in expectations for better earnings in 2024.

The price-to-earnings value for the broader S&P 500 has remained steady in 2023 after recovering from lower values in 2022. The technology sector is much more expensive, hovering around its highest levels in two decades.

"We anticipate global risk appetite increasing as 2024 begins, with markets experiencing some volatility as they start to discount a recovery later in the year," said investment management company Invesco in its 2024 outlook.

Retailers and other consumer-focused companies could benefit from a resilient economy with easing inflation and lower borrowing costs. Expensive technology stocks also tend to look more attractive to investors when interest rates fall.


# US job openings fall to lowest level since March 2021 as labor market cools
By **PAUL WISEMAN**
December 5, 2023. 11:18 AM EST

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**WASHINGTON (AP)** - U.S. employers posted 8.7 million job openings in October, the fewest since March 2021, in a sign that hiring is cooling in the face of higher interest rates yet remains at a still-healthy pace.

The Labor Department's report said Tuesday that openings were down significantly from 9.4 million in September.

Layoffs were up modestly in October. And the number of Americans who quit their jobs - which generally reflects confidence in their ability to find better pay or working conditions elsewhere - was down slightly.

The drop in job openings last month was particularly steep in healthcare and social assistance, where they fell by 236,000; finance, which includes banking, insurance and real estate and which has been hit particularly hard by higher interest rates, down 217,000; and hotels, restaurants and bars, down 124,000.

Still, despite the sharp drop in October, job openings remain at historically high levels. They have now exceeded 8 million for 32 straight months - a threshold they had never reached before 2021.

U.S. hiring is slowing from the breakneck pace of the past two years. Still, employers have added a solid 239,000 jobs a month this year. And the unemployment rate has come in below 4% for 21 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

The job market has shown surprising resilience even as the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times since March 2022 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades. The resulting higher borrowing costs have helped ease inflationary pressures. Consumer prices were up 3.2% in October from a year earlier, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

The Labor Department will issue the November jobs report on Friday. It is expected to show that employers added nearly 173,000 jobs last month. That would be up from 150,000 in October, in part because of the end of strikes by autoworkers and Hollywood writers and actors. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 3.9%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.

Though unemployment remains low, 1.93 million Americans were collecting unemployment benefits in the week that ended Nov. 18, the most in two years. That suggests that those who do lose their jobs need unemployment assistance longer because it is getting harder to find new employment.

Overall, the combination of easing inflation and resilient hiring has raised hopes the Fed can manage a so-called soft landing - raising rates just enough to slow the economy and tame price increases without tipping the economy into recession. The cooling of the job market could mean a lessening of inflation pressures and less need for the Fed to keep interest rates high.

The drop in openings "will be welcome news for policymakers" at the Fed, said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "Overall, the labor market remains strong, but it is cooling. And wages and inflation are decelerating. The data support our view that rates are at a peak and the Fed's next move will be a rate cut, likely in (the second quarter of) 2024."


# Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly up as weak jobs data back hopes for an end to rate hikes
By **ELAINE KURTENBACH**
December 5, 2023. 11:16 PM EST

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**BANGKOK (AP)** - Asian shares advanced on Wednesday after most stocks slipped on Wall Street following a mixed set of reports on the U.S. economy.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.5% to 16,413.96 while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% higher, to 2,968.75.

The gains followed selloffs the day before amid worries about the health of China's economy, the world's second largest.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 1.7% to 33,339.26 and the Kospi in Seoul was up 0.6% at 2,509.04. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.5% to 7,166.10.

India's Sensex gained 0.6% and the SET in Bangkok advanced 0.9%.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower, to 4,567.18, for its first back-to-back loss since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, to 36,124.56, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3%, to 14,229.91.

U.S. stocks and Treasury yields wavered after reports showed that employers advertised far fewer job openings at the end of October than expected, while growth for services businesses accelerated more last month than expected.

That kept alive questions about whether the U.S. economy can pull off a perfect landing where it snuffs out high inflation but avoids a recession.

On Wall Street, KeyCorp fell 3.7% and led a slump for bank stocks after it cut its forecast for income from fees and other non-interest income. But gains of more than 2% for Apple and Nvidia, two of the market's most influential stocks, helped to blunt the losses.

With inflation down from its peak two summers ago, Wall Street is hopeful the Federal Reserve may finally be done with its market-shaking hikes to interest rates and could soon turn to cutting rates. That could help the economy avoid a recession and give a boost to all kinds of investment prices.

Tuesday's report showed that employers advertised just 8.7 million jobs on the last day of October, down by 617,000 from a month earlier and the lowest level since 2021.

A separate report said that activity for U.S. services industries expanded for the 41st time in the last 42 months, with growth reported by everything from agriculture to wholesale trade. Strength there has been offsetting weakness in manufacturing.

In the bond market, Treasury yields continued to sag further from the heights they reached during late October.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.17% from 4.26% late Monday, offering more breathing space for stocks and other markets. It had been above 5% and at its highest level in more than a decade during October.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, went on a jagged run following the economic reports. It fell from 4.61% just before the reports' release to 4.57% and then yo-yoed before easing back to 4.55%.

Traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold its key interest rate steady at its next meeting next week, before potentially cutting rates in March, according to data from CME Group.

Fed officials have recently hinted that the federal funds rate may indeed already be at its peak. It's above 5.25%, up from nearly zero early last year. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have also warned Wall Street about being overzealous in its predictions about how early a cut could happen.

Lower yields have been one reason prices cryptocurrencies have been rising recently. Excitement about a possible exchange-traded fund tied to bitcoin, which would open it to new kinds of investors, has also helped send it above $43,000 recently.

In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil added 7 cents to $72.39 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 9 cents to $77.29 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar rose to 147.31 Japanese yen from 147.17 yen. The euro slipped to $1.0800 from $1.0802.


# Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
December 4, 2023. 12:01 AM EST

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**NEW YORK (AP)** - Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

"While most respondents expect an uptick in the unemployment rate going forward, a majority anticipates that the rate will not exceed 5%," Ellen Zentner, president of the association and chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a statement.

The Federal Reserve has raised its main interest rate above 5.25% to the highest level since early in the millennium, up from virtually zero early last year.

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way down to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% until the following year.

Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.

The median forecast of the surveyed economists called for the consumer price index to be 2.4% higher in the final three months of 2024 from a year earlier. That would be milder than the inflation of more than 9% that U.S. households suffered during the summer of 2022.

Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets. Some economists think the first cut could arrive during the first three months of 2024, while roughly a quarter of the survey's respondents think it won't happen until the last three months of the year.


# Israel's military campaign in Gaza seen as among the most destructive in recent history, experts say
By **JULIA FRANKEL**
December 22, 2023. 5:20 AM EST

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**JERUSALEM (AP)** - The Israeli military campaign in Gaza, experts say, now sits among the deadliest and most destructive in recent history.

In just over two months, the offensive has wreaked more destruction than the razing of Syria's Aleppo between 2012 and 2016, Ukraine's Mariupol or, proportionally, the Allied bombing of Germany in World War II. It has killed more civilians than the U.S.-led coalition did in its three-year campaign against the Islamic State group.

The Israeli military has said little about what kinds of bombs and artillery it is using in Gaza. But from blast fragments found on-site and analyses of strike footage, experts are confident that the vast majority of bombs dropped on the besieged enclave are U.S.-made. They say the weapons include 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) "bunker-busters" that have killed hundreds in densely populated areas.

With the Palestinian death toll in Gaza surpassing 20,000, the international community is calling for a cease-fire. Israel vows to press ahead, saying it wants to destroy Hamas' military capabilities following the militant group's Oct. 7 cross-border rampage that triggered the war, in which it killed 1,200 people and took 240 others hostage.

The Biden administration has quietly continued to supply arms to Israel. Last week, however, President Joe Biden publicly acknowledged that Israel was losing international legitimacy for what he called its "indiscriminate bombing."

Here's a look at what is known so far about Israel's campaign on Gaza.

## HOW MUCH DESTRUCTION IS THERE IN GAZA?
Israel's offensive has destroyed over two-thirds of all structures in northern Gaza and a quarter of buildings in the southern area of Khan Younis, according to an analysis of Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite data by Corey Scher of the CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University, experts in mapping damage during wartime.

The percentage of damaged buildings in the Khan Younis area nearly doubled in just the first two weeks of Israel's southern offensive, they said.

That includes tens of thousands of homes as well as schools, hospitals, mosques and stores. U.N. monitors have said that about 70% of school buildings across Gaza have been damaged. At least 56 damaged schools served as shelters for displaced civilians. Israeli strikes damaged 110 mosques and three churches, the monitors said.

Israel holds Hamas responsible for civilian deaths by embedding militants in civilian infrastructure. Those sites also shelter multitudes of Palestinians who have fled under Israeli evacuation orders.

"Gaza is now a different color from space. It's a different texture," said Scher, who has worked with Van Den Hoek to map destruction across several war zones, from Aleppo to Mariupol.

## HOW DOES THE DESTRUCTION STACK UP HISTORICALLY?
By some measures, destruction in Gaza has outpaced Allied bombings of Germany during World War II.

Between 1942 and 1945, the allies attacked 51 major German cities and towns, destroying about 40-50% of their urban areas, said Robert Pape, a U.S. military historian. Pape said this amounted to 10% of buildings across Germany, compared to over 33% across Gaza, a densely populated territory of just 140 square miles (360 square kilometers).

"Gaza is one of the most intense civilian punishment campaigns in history," said Pape. "It now sits comfortably in the top quartile of the most devastating bombing campaigns ever."

The U.S.-led coalition's 2017 assault to expel the Islamic State group from the Iraqi city of Mosul was considered one of the most intense attacks on a city in generations. That nine-month battle killed around 10,000 civilians, a third of them from coalition bombardment, according an Associated Press investigation at the time.

During the 2014-2017 campaign to defeat IS in Iraq, the coalition carried out nearly 15,000 strikes across the country, according to Airwars, a London-based independent group that tracks recent conflicts. By comparison, the Israeli military said last week it has conducted 22,000 strikes in Gaza.

## WHAT TYPES OF BOMBS ARE BEING USED?
The Israeli military has not specified what it is using. It says every strike is cleared by legal advisers to make sure it complies with international law.

"We choose the right munition for each target - so it doesn't cause unnecessary damage," said the army's chief spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.

Weapons experts have been able to draw conclusions by analyzing blast fragments found on-site, satellite images and videos circulated on social media. They say the findings offer only a peek into the full scope of the air war.

So far, fragments of American-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) bombs and smaller diameter bombs have been found in Gaza, according to Brian Castner, a weapons investigator with Amnesty International.

The JDAM bombs include precision-guided 1,000- and 2,000-pound (450-kilogram and 900-kilogram) "bunker-busters."

"It turns earth to liquid," said Marc Garlasco, a former Pentagon defense official and a war crimes investigator for the U.N. "It pancakes entire buildings."

He said the explosion of a 2,000-pound bomb in the open means "instant death" for anyone within about 30 meters (100 feet). Lethal fragmentation can extend for up to 365 meters (1,200 feet).

In an Oct. 31 strike on the urban refugee camp of Jabaliya, experts say a 2,000-pound bomb killed over 100 civilians.

Experts have also identified fragments of SPICE (Smart, Precise Impact, Cost-Effective) 2000-pound bombs, which are fitted with a GPS guidance system to make targeting more precise. Castner said the bombs are produced by the Israeli defense giant Rafael, but a recent State Department release first obtained by The New York Times showed some of the technology had been produced in the United States.

The Israeli military is also dropping unguided "dumb" bombs. Several experts pointed to two photos posted to social media by the Israeli Air Force at the start of the war showing fighter jets stocked with unguided bombs.

## IS THE STRATEGY WORKING?
Israel says it has two goals: destroy Hamas and rescue the 129 hostages still held by militants.

Eleven weeks into the war, Israel says it has destroyed many Hamas sites and hundreds of tunnel shafts and has killed 7,000 Hamas fighters out of an estimated 30,000-40,000. Israeli leaders say intense military pressure is the only way to free more hostages.

But some families of hostages worry that the bombing endangers their loved ones. Hostages released during a weeklong cease-fire last month recounted that their captors moved them from place to place to avoid Israeli bombardment. Hamas has claimed that several hostages died from Israeli bombs, though the claims could not be verified.

The level of destruction is so high because "Hamas is very entrenched within the civilian population," said Efraim Inbar, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a think tank. He also said intense bombardment of Hamas' tunnels is needed to protect advancing Israeli ground forces from attacks.


# British actor Tom Wilkinson, known for 'The Full Monty' and 'Michael Clayton,' dies at 75
By **SYLVIA HUI**
December 30, 2023. 5:03 PM EST

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**LONDON (AP)** - Tom Wilkinson, the Oscar-nominated British actor known for his roles in "The Full Monty," "Michael Clayton" and "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," has died, his family said. He was 75.

A statement shared by his agent on behalf of the family said Wilkinson died suddenly at home on Saturday. It didn't provide further details.

Wilkinson was nominated for a best actor Academy Award for his work in 2001's family drama "In The Bedroom" and in the best supporting actor category for his role in "Michael Clayton," a 2007 legal thriller that starred George Clooney.

He is remembered by many in Britain and beyond for playing former steel mill foreman Gerald Cooper in the 1997 comedy "The Full Monty," about a group of unemployed steel workers who formed an unlikely male stripping act.

Wilkinson was born in Yorkshire in northern England in 1948 and spent part of his childhood in Canada. He attended the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art in the 1970s.

He starred in dozens of other TV dramas and movies, from "Rush Hour" and "Batman Begins" to "Shakespeare in Love," "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" and "Valkyrie."

He most recently reunited with his "Full Monty" co-stars, Robert Carlyle and Mark Addy in a Disney+ series of the same name.

"He'll be sorely missed by everyone who had the pleasure of working with him," Carlyle said in a statement. "Such a huge performer, a real titan of an actor, one of the greats of not only his, but of any generation."

Wilkinson was recognized for his services to drama in 2005 when he was appointed a member of the Order of the British Empire.

He also won a 2009 Golden Globe and 2008 Emmy for his role as Benjamin Franklin in the HBO series "John Adams."

Wilkinson married actress Diana Hardcastle in 1988. The couple had two daughters.


# Maine state official who removed Trump from ballot was targeted in swatting call at her home
By **MARK THIESSEN**
December 30, 2023. 6:22 PM EST

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A fake emergency call to police resulted in officers responding Friday night to the home of Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows just a day after she removed former President Donald Trump from the state's presidential primary ballot under the Constitution's insurrection clause.

She becomes the latest elected politician to become a target of swatting, which involves making a prank phone call to emergency services with the intent that a large first responder presence, including SWAT teams, will show up at a residence.

Bellows was not home when the swatting call was made, and responding officers found nothing suspicious.

While no motive for the swatting attempt was released by the Maine Department of Public Safety, Bellows said she had no doubts it stemmed from her decision to remove Trump from the ballot.

The swatting attempt came after her home address was posted on social media by a conservative activist. "And it was posted in anger and with violent intent by those who have been extending threatening communications toward me, my family and my office," she told The Associated Press in a phone call Saturday.

According to the Maine Department of Public Safety, a call was made to emergency services from an unknown man saying he had broken into a house in Manchester.

The address the man gave was Bellows' home. Bellows and her husband were away for the holiday weekend. Maine State Police responded to what the public safety department said ultimately turned out to be a swatting call.

Police conducted an exterior sweep of the house and then checked inside at Bellows' request. Nothing suspicious was found, and police continue to investigate.

"The Maine State Police is working with our law enforcement partners to provide special attention to any and all appropriate locations," the public safety statement said.

Bellows said the intimidation factors won't work. "Here's what I'm not doing differently. I'm doing my job to uphold the Constitution, the rule of law."

Other high-profile politicians who have been targets of swatting calls include U.S. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost.

Bellows said she, her family and her office workers have been threatened since her decision to remove Trump from the ballot. At least one Republican lawmaker in Maine wants to pursue impeachment against her.

"Not only have there been threatening communications, but there have been dehumanizing fake images posted online and even fake text threads attributed to me," said Bellows, who has worked in civil rights prior to becoming secretary of state.

"And my previous work taught me that dehumanizing people is the first step in creating an environment that leads to attacks and violence against that person," she said. "It is extraordinarily dangerous for the rhetoric to have escalated to the point of dehumanizing me and threatening me, my loved ones and the people who work for me."

She said the people of Maine have a strong tradition of being able to disagree on important issues without violence.

"I think it is extraordinarily important that everyone deescalate the rhetoric and remember the values that make our democratic republic and here in Maine, our state, so great," she said.

The Trump campaign said it would appeal Bellows' decision to Maine's state courts, and Bellows suspended her ruling until that court system rules on the case.

The Colorado Supreme Court earlier this month removed Trump from that state's ballot, a decision that also was stayed until the U.S. Supreme Court decides whether he would be barred under the insurrection clause, a Civil War-era provision which prohibits those who "engaged in insurrection" from holding office.


# Netanyahu says Gaza war on Hamas will go on for 'many more months,' thanks US for new weapons sales
By **WAFAA SHURAFA**, **SAMY MAGDY**, and **ABBY SEWELL**
December 30, 2023. 6:13 PM EST

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**DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP)** - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza will continue for "many more months," pushing back against persistent international cease-fire calls after mounting civilian deaths, hunger and mass displacement in the besieged enclave.

Netanyahu thanked the Biden administration for its continued backing, including approval for a new emergency weapons sale, the second this month, and prevention of a U.N. Security Council resolution seeking an immediate cease-fire. Israel argues that ending the war now would mean victory for Hamas, a stance shared by the Biden administration, which at the same time urged Israel to do more to avoid harm to Palestinian civilians.

In new fighting, Israeli warplanes struck the urban refugee camps of Nuseirat and Bureij in the center of the territory Saturday as ground forces pushed deeper into the southern city of Khan Younis.

The Health Ministry in Gaza said Saturday that more than 21,600 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's unprecedented air and ground offensive since the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. The ministry, which does not distinguish between the deaths of civilians and combatants, said 165 Palestinians were killed over the past 24 hours. It has said about 70% of those killed have been women and children.

The number of Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza combat rose to 170, after the military announced two more deaths Saturday.

The war has displaced some 85% of Gaza's 2.3 million residents, sending swells of people seeking shelter in Israeli-designated safe areas that the military has nevertheless bombed. Palestinians are left with a sense that nowhere is safe in the tiny enclave.

With Israeli forces expanding their ground offensive this week, tens of thousands more Palestinians streamed into the already crowded city of Rafah at the southernmost end of Gaza.

Thousands of tents and makeshift shacks have sprung up on Rafah's outskirts next to U.N. warehouses. Displaced people arrived in Rafah on foot or on trucks and carts piled high with mattresses. Those who did not find space in overwhelmed shelters pitched tents on roadsides.

"We don't have water. We don't have enough food," Nour Daher, a displaced woman, said Saturday from the sprawling tent camp. "The kids wake up in the morning wanting to eat, wanting to drink. It took us one hour to find water for them. We couldn't bring them flour. Even when we wanted to take them to toilets, it took us one hour to walk."

In the Nuseirat camp, resident Mustafa Abu Wawee said a strike hit the home of one of his relatives, killing two people.

"The (Israeli) occupation is doing everything to force people to leave," he said over the phone while helping to search for four people missing under the rubble. "They want to break our spirit and will, but they will fail. We are here to stay."

## MORE U.S. WEAPONS FOR ISRAEL
The State Department said Friday that Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Congress he approved a $147.5 million sale for equipment, including fuses, charges and primers, that is needed for 155 mm shells Israel bought previously.

It marked the second time this month that the Biden administration is bypassing Congress to approve an emergency weapons sale to Israel. Blinken made a similar decision on Dec. 9 to approve the sale to Israel of nearly 14,000 rounds of tank ammunition worth more than $106 million.

Both moves have come as President Joe Biden's request for a nearly $106 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other national security needs remains stalled in Congress, caught up in a debate over U.S. immigration policy and border security. Some Democratic lawmakers have spoken of making the proposed $14.3 billion in American assistance to its Mideast ally contingent on concrete steps by Netanyahu's government to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza during the war with Hamas.

## THE WAR'S TIMELINE
Blinken, who has repeatedly traveled to the Middle East during the war, was expected back in Israel and other countries in the region in January. U.S. officials have urged Israel to start shifting from high intensity combat to more targeted operations, but said they were not imposing a deadline.

Netanyahu said Israel needs more time.

"As the chief of staff said this week, the war will continue many more months," he told a televised news conference Saturday. "My policy is clear. We will continue to fight until we have achieved all the objectives of the war, first and foremost the annihilation of Hamas and the release of all the hostages."

More than 120 hostages remain in Gaza, after militants seized more than 240 in the Oct. 7 assault that also killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

Netanyahu is also at odds with the Biden administration over who should run Gaza after the war. He has rejected the U.S.-backed idea that a unified Palestinian government should run both Gaza and parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank as a precursor to eventual statehood. Instead, he has insisted on open-ended Israeli security control in Gaza, without saying what would come next.

## TRADING FOR HOSTAGES
Families of hostages and their supporters have demanded that the government prioritize hostage releases over other war objectives, and have staged large protests every weekend, including Saturday.

Egypt, one of the mediators between Israel and Hamas, has proposed a multistage plan that would kick off with a swap of hostages for prisoners, accompanied by a temporary cease-fire - along the lines of an exchange during a weeklong truce in November.

Hamas insists the war must end before it will discuss hostage releases. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official in Beirut, reiterated that position Saturday, but also told The Associated Press that "we have not given any final answer so far" to the Egyptian proposal.

Asked about reports of possible progress toward a deal, Netanyahu said Saturday that "we see a possibility, maybe, for movement" but that he did not want to raise "exaggerated expectations."

## DIFFICULTIES IN DELIVERING AID
More than a week after a U.N. Security Council resolution called for the unhindered delivery of aid at scale across besieged Gaza, conditions have only worsened, U.N. agencies warned.

Aid officials said the aid entering Gaza remains woefully inadequate. Distributing goods is hampered by long delays at two border crossings, ongoing fighting, Israeli airstrikes, repeated cuts in internet and phone services and a breakdown of law and order that makes it difficult to secure aid convoys, they said.

Nearly the entire population is fully dependent on outside humanitarian aid, said Philippe Lazzarini, head of UNRWA, the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees. A quarter of the population is starving because too few trucks enter with food, medicine, fuel and other supplies - sometimes fewer than 100 trucks a day, according to U.N. daily reports.


# Shelling kills 21 in Russian city of Belgorod following Moscow's aerial attacks across Ukraine
By **The Associated Press**
December 30, 2023. 5:49 PM EST

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Shelling in the center of the Russian border city of Belgorod Saturday killed 21 people, including three children, local officials reported.

A further 110 people were wounded in the strike, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, making it one of the deadliest attacks on Russian soil since the start of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine 22 months ago.

Russian authorities accused Kyiv of carrying out the attack, which took place the day after an 18-hour aerial bombardment across Ukraine killed at least 41 civilians.

Images of Belgorod on social media showed burning cars and plumes of black smoke rising among damaged buildings as air raid sirens sounded. One strike hit close to a public ice rink in the very heart of the city, which lies 25 miles (40 kilometers) north of the Ukrainian border and 415 miles (670 kilometers) south of Moscow. While previous attacks have hit the city, they have rarely taken place in daylight and have claimed fewer lives.

Russia's Defense Ministry said it identified the ammunition used in the strike as Czech-made Vampire rockets and Olkha missiles fitted with cluster-munition warheads. It provided no additional information, and The Associated Press was unable to verify its claims.

"This crime will not go unpunished," the ministry said in a statement on social media.

The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had been briefed on the situation, and that the country's health minister, Mikhail Murashko, was ordered to join a delegation of medical personnel and rescue workers traveling to Belgorod from Moscow.

Russian diplomats also called for a meeting of the U.N. Security Council in connection with the strike. Speaking to Russia's state news agency, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Britain and the United States were guilty of encouraging Kyiv to carry out what she described as a "terrorist attack." She also placed blame on EU countries who had supplied Ukraine with weapons.

"Silence in response to the unbridled barbarity of Ukraine's Nazis and their puppeteers and accomplices from 'civilized democracies' will be akin to complicity in their bloody deeds," the ministry said in a statement.

Earlier Saturday, Moscow officials reported shooting down 32 Ukrainian drones over the country's Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol, and Kursk regions.

They also reported that cross-border shelling had killed two other people in Russia. A man died and four other people were wounded when a missile struck a private home in the Belgorod region late Friday evening and a 9-year-old was killed in a separate incident in the Bryansk region.

Cities across western Russia have come under regular attack from drones since May, with Russian officials blaming Kyiv. Ukrainian officials never acknowledge responsibility for attacks on Russian territory or the Crimean Peninsula. However, larger aerial strikes against Russia have previously followed heavy assaults on Ukrainian cities.

Russian drone strikes against Ukraine continued Saturday, with the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reporting that 10 Iranian-made Shahed drones had been shot down across the Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, and Mykolaiv regions.

Local officials reported that three people had been killed by Russian missiles: a 55-year-old man in the Kherson region, a 43-year-old man in Stepnohirsk, a town in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, and a 32-year-old in the Chernihiv region.

On Friday, Moscow's forces launched 122 missiles and dozens of drones across Ukraine, an onslaught described by one air force official as the biggest aerial barrage of the war.

As well as the 39 deaths, at least 160 people were wounded and an unknown number were buried under rubble in the assault, which damaged a maternity hospital, apartment blocks, and schools.

Western officials and analysts recently warned that Russia limited its cruise missile strikes for months in an apparent effort to build up stockpiles for massive strikes during the winter, hoping to break the Ukrainians' spirit.

Fighting along the front line is largely bogged down by winter weather after Ukraine's summer counteroffensive failed to make a significant breakthrough along the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) line of contact.

Russia's ongoing aerial attacks have also sparked concern for Ukraine's neighbors.

Poland's defense forces said Friday that an unknown object had entered the country's airspace before vanishing off radars, and that all indications pointed to it being a Russian missile.

Speaking to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, Russia's charge d'affaires in Poland, Andrei Ordash, said Saturday that Moscow would not comment on the event until Warsaw had given the Kremlin evidence of an airspace violation.

"We will not give any explanations until we are presented with concrete evidence because these accusations are unsubstantiated," he said.


# Russia says it downed dozens of Ukrainian drones headed for Moscow, following a mass strike on Kyiv
By **The Associated Press**
November 26, 2023. 3:28 PM EST

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Ukraine tried to attack Moscow with dozens of drones, Russian authorities said Sunday, just a day after Ukrainian officials reported that Russia had launched its most intense drone attack on Kyiv since the beginning of its full-scale war in 2022.

Russian air defenses brought down at least 24 drones over the Moscow region - which surrounds but doesn't include the capital - and four other provinces to the south and west, the Russian Defense Ministry and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported in a series of Telegram updates. Neither referenced any casualties.

Andrei Vorobyev, governor of the Moscow region, wrote on Telegram that the drone strikes damaged three unspecified buildings there, adding that no one was hurt.

One drone crashed into a 12-story apartment building in the western Russian city of Tula, about 180 kilometers (113 miles) south of Moscow, slightly wounding one resident and causing limited damage, local Gov. Aleksei Dyumin wrote on Telegram on Sunday morning.

Moscow's Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports also briefly shut down because of the drone attack, according to Russian state-run news agency Tass. Both appeared to have resumed normal operation by 6 a.m. local time Sunday, according to data from international flight tracking portals.

Russian Telegram channels speculated that Ukrainian forces had deployed a previously unseen type of drone in the purported strike, pointing out some similarities to the Iranian-made weapons Moscow routinely employs in its attacks on Ukraine.

The Russian capital has come under attack from drones regularly since May, with Russian officials blaming Ukraine. Military analysts commented at the time that the early attacks deployed Ukrainian locally-made drones, which couldn't carry as heavy a payload as the Iranian-made Shaheds used by Russia.

Ukrainian officials didn't immediately acknowledge or comment on the strikes, which came a day after Russia targeted the Ukrainian capital with more than 60 Shahed drones. At least five civilians were wounded in the hourslong assault, which saw several buildings damaged by falling debris from downed drones, including a kindergarten. The wounded included an 11-year-old child, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko.

The Ukrainian air force early on Sunday said it had brought down eight of nine Shahed drones fired overnight by Russian forces.

Also on Sunday morning, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that two Soviet-made S-200 rockets fired by Kyiv were shot down over the sea of Azov, which stretches between the Crimean Peninsula and Ukraine's Russian-occupied southeastern coast.

According to local news sources, air raid sirens sounded earlier in Russian-annexed Crimea, which on Friday came under what Russian officials called a major drone attack. Road traffic was also briefly halted on Sunday morning across the 19-kilometer (12-mile) bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland.

There were no reports of casualties, and no comment from officials in Kyiv.

Elsewhere, parts of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine were left without power following a nighttime Ukrainian strike on a thermal power plant in the Donetsk region, a Moscow-installed local official reported on Telegram Sunday. According to Denis Pushilin, who heads the province that Russia illegally annexed last year, the attack on the Starobesheve plant took out the electricity in parts of the occupied cities of Donetsk and Mariupol, along with other nearby areas.

On the outskirts of Donetsk, Russian troops have continued their attempts to advance near Avdiivka, the eastern town that has been a Ukrainian stronghold and fighting hot spot since the early days of the war, according to reports by the Ukrainian General Staff and analysis by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

The Ukrainian General Staff said Sunday morning that Kyiv's forces beat back Russian assaults to the northeast, west and southwest of Avdiivka over the previous 24 hours, as Moscow's troops strain to encircle the city.

Several Russian bloggers also made unconfirmed claims that Ukrainian forces had begun withdrawing from the industrial zone on Avdiivka's southern flank, although others said that Russian troops lacked complete control of the area. These claims couldn't be independently verified.

Russian shelling killed two civilians in the Donetsk region on Saturday and overnight, acting Ukrainian Gov. Ihor Moroz reported on Telegram on Sunday morning. Over that same period, Russian shells wounded one person in Ukraine's northern Sumy province, which borders Russia, according to a Telegram update by the Ukrainian regional military command.


# Prosecutors urge appeals court to reject Trump's immunity claims in election subversion case
By **ERIC TUCKER**
December 30, 2023. 3:51 PM EST

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Special counsel Jack Smith urged a federal appeals court Saturday to reject former President Donald Trump's claims that he is immune from prosecution, saying the suggestion that he cannot be held to account for crimes in office "threatens the democratic and constitutional foundation" of the country.

The filing from Smith's team was submitted ahead of arguments next month on the legally untested question of whether a former president can be prosecuted for acts taken while in the White House.

Though the matter is now being considered by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, it's likely to come again before the Supreme Court, which earlier this month rejected prosecutors' request for a speedy ruling in their favor holding that Trump can be forced to stand trial on charges that he plotted to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

The outcome of the dispute is critical for both sides especially since the case has been effectively paused while Trump advances his immunity claims in the appeals court.

Prosecutors are hoping a swift judgment rejecting those arguments will restart the case and keep it on track for trial, currently scheduled for March 4 in federal court in Washington. But Trump's lawyers stand to benefit from a protracted appeals process that could significantly delay the case and potentially push it beyond the November election.

Trump's lawyers maintain that the appeals court should order the dismissal of the case, arguing that as a former president he is exempt from prosecution for acts that fell within his official duties as president.

Smith's team has said no such immunity exists in the Constitution or in case law and that, in any event, the actions that Trump took in his failed effort to cling to power aren't part of a president's official responsibilities.

The four-count indictment charges Trump with conspiring to disrupt the certification in Congress of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, when rioters motivated by his falsehoods about the election results stormed the U.S. Capitol in a violent clash with police. It alleges that he participated in a scheme to enlist slates of fake electors in battleground states who would falsely attest that Trump had won those states and encouraged then-Vice President Mike Pence to thwart the counting of votes.

Those actions, prosecutors wrote, fall well outside a president's official duties and were intended solely to help him win reelection.

"A President who unlawfully seeks to retain power through criminal means unchecked by potential criminal prosecution could jeopardize both the Presidency itself and the very foundations of our democratic system of government officials to use fraudulent means to thwart the transfer of power and remain in office," Smith's team wrote.

In their brief, prosecutors also said that though the presidency plays a "vital role in our constitutional system," so, too, does the principle of accountability in the event of wrongdoing.

"Rather than vindicating our constitutional framework, the defendant's sweeping immunity claim threatens to license Presidents to commit crimes to remain in office," they wrote. "The Founders did not intend and would never have countenanced such a result."

While Trump's lawyers have argued that the indictment threatens "the very bedrock of our Republic," prosecutors say the defense has it backwards.

"It is the defendant's claim that he cannot be held to answer for the charges that he engaged in an unprecedented effort to retain power through criminal means, despite having lost the election, that threatens the democratic and constitutional foundation of our Republic," they said.

A three-judge panel is set to hear arguments on Jan. 9. Two of the judges, J. Michelle Childs and Florence Pan, were appointed by President Joe Biden. The third, Karen LeCraft Henderson, was assigned to the bench by former President George H.W. Bush.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan earlier rejected the immunity arguments, asserting that the office of the presidency does not confer a "'get-out-of-jail free card." Trump's lawyers then appealed that decision, prompting Smith to seek to bypass the court and request an expedited decision from the Supreme Court.

The justices last week denied that request without explanation, leaving the matter with the appeals court.

Trump faces three other criminal prosecutions. He is charged in Florida with illegally retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate and faces a state prosecution in Georgia that accuses him of trying to subvert that state's 2020 presidential election and a New York case that accuses him of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money payment to a porn actress.


# How recent 'swatting' calls targeting officials may prompt heavier penalties for hoax police calls
By **JEFF AMY**
December 29, 2023. 12:32 PM EST

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ATLANTA (AP) - A spate of false reports of shootings at the homes of public officials in recent days could be setting the stage for stricter penalties against so-called swatting in more states.

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost have been among the victims.

Several Georgia lawmakers targeted say they want increased penalties for swatting, like laws enacted this year in Ohio and Virginia. Similar bills are pending in other states and Congress.

Here's a look at the issue and what could be done about it:

## WHAT IS 'SWATTING'?
Swatting is the act of making a prank call to emergency services to prompt a response at a particular address. The goal is to get authorities, particularly a SWAT team, to show up.

Calls in multiple states in recent days featured the voice of a man calling himself "Jamal," claiming he had shot his wife because she was sleeping with another man and saying he was holding the boyfriend hostage, demanding $10,000.

Two Ohio lawmakers said they thought they were targeted recently for helping pass a law making swatting a felony in the state.

Georgia state Sen. Clint Dixon said the incident at his house in Buford on Christmas evening was "quite startling" for himself, his wife and three children.

"I was watching a little football and my wife was upstairs packing for a trip, and all of a sudden, I heard her, you know, start yelling, 'There's police running at the door.' She saw on our Ring doorbell," he told WABE.

## WHO'S BEEN TARGETED RECENTLY?
A man in New York called the Georgia suicide hotline just before 11 a.m. Monday, claiming that he had shot his girlfriend at Greene's home in Rome, Georgia, and was going to kill himself next, said Kelly Madden, the Rome police spokesperson. The call was quickly transferred to police when suicide hotline responders recognized the congresswoman's address.

The department said it contacted Greene's private security detail to confirm she was safe and that there was no emergency. The call was then determined to be a swatting attempt so the response was canceled while police were on the way. Greene has been the subject of multiple swatting attempts.

Scott wrote on X that police were sent to his home in Naples, Florida, while he and his wife were out at dinner on Wednesday night. Police said they met Scott's private security service at the home, but didn't find anything out of place.

"These criminals wasted the time & resources of our law enforcement in a sick attempt to terrorize my family," Scott wrote.

In Boston, a male caller claimed on Monday that he had shot his wife and had tied her and another man up at Wu's home. The Democratic mayor said she was surprised to open the door and see flashing lights, but said her home has been targeted by multiple swatting calls since she took office in 2021.

"For better or worse, my family are a bit used to it by now, and we have a good system with the department," Wu told WBUR.

Also targeted have been a Republican congressman from New York, Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and a former state senator in Nebraska. Dixon was among four Georgia state senators who were recently swatted. In Ohio, a total of three current or former state lawmakers were affected.

Jones said his home in a small town south of Atlanta was swatted on Wednesday, only to have a bomb threat called in on Thursday.

"Thankfully everyone is safe, and I commend our local law enforcement officers for their professionalism," Jones wrote on X. "Let me be clear - I will not be intimidated by those attempting to silence me," Jones wrote on X We will put an end to this madness.

## HOW WIDESPREAD IS THE PROBLEM?
Hundreds of cases of swatting occur annually, with some using caller ID spoofing to disguise their number. And those targeted extend far beyond public officials.

Police in Lincoln, Nebraska, told KETV-TV that they had handled three swatting calls in the same 48-hour period in which they went to the unoccupied home of former state Sen. Adam Morfeld.

The FBI said earlier this year that it had created a national database in conjunction with other law enforcement agencies to track swatting incidents nationwide. Police had for months reported a huge surge in fake claims about active shooters at schools and colleges. There have also been reports of hundreds of swatting incidents and bomb threats against synagogues and other Jewish institutions since the Israel-Hamas war began.

The Anti-Defamation League estimates that by 2019 there were more than 1,000 incidents of swatting nationwide each year. That group says each incident can costs taxpayers thousands of dollars in emergency response costs.

## DO FALSE THREATS POSE OTHER RISKS?
Such calls have proven dangerous and even outright deadly.

In 2017, a police officer in Wichita, Kansas, shot and killed a man while responding to a hoax emergency call. Earlier this year, the city agreed to pay $5 million to settle a related lawsuit, with the money to go to the two children of 28-year-old Andrew Finch.

In 2015, police in Maryland shot a 20-year-old man in the face with rubber bullets after a fake hostage situation was reported at his home.

In addition to putting innocent people at risk, police and officials say they worry about diverting resources from real emergencies.

## WHAT KIND OF RESPONSE COULD THIS PROMPT?
Police are investigating the recent threats. No arrests have yet been reported.

Ohio earlier this year made it a felony offense to report a false emergency that prompts response by law enforcement. And Virginia increased the penalties for swatting to up to 12 months in jail.

Dixon, the Georgia state senator, said in a statement he planned to introduce a bill during the upcoming legislative session to strengthen penalties for false reporting and misuse of police forces.

"This issue goes beyond politics - it's about public safety and preserving the integrity of our institutions," he said.

Jones, the Georgia lieutenant governor, promised "an end to this madness" after his home in a small town south of Atlanta was swatted on Wednesday, only to have a bomb threat called in to his office on Thursday.

"Let me be clear - I will not be intimidated by those attempting to silence me," Jones wrote on X.


# Trump is blocked from the GOP primary ballot in two states. Can he still run for president?
By **NICHOLAS RICCARDI**
December 29, 2023. 12:46 PM EST

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**DENVER (AP)** - First, Colorado's Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump wasn't eligible to run for his old job in that state. Then, Maine's Democratic secretary of state ruled the same for her state. Who's next?

Both decisions are historic. The Colorado court was the first court to apply to a presidential candidate a rarely used constitutional ban against those who "engaged in insurrection." Maine's secretary of state was the first top election official to unilaterally strike a presidential candidate from the ballot under that provision.

But both decisions are on hold while the legal process plays out.

That means that Trump remains on the ballot in Colorado and Maine and that his political fate is now in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court. The Maine ruling will likely never take effect on its own. Its central impact is increasing pressure on the nation's highest court to say clearly: Can Trump still run for president after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol?

## WHAT'S THE LEGAL ISSUE?
After the Civil War, the U.S. ratified the 14th Amendment to guarantee rights to former slaves and more. It also included a two-sentence clause called Section 3, designed to keep former Confederates from regaining government power after the war.

The measure reads:

"No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

Congress did remove that disability from most Confederates in 1872, and the provision fell into disuse. But it was rediscovered after Jan. 6.

## HOW DOES THIS APPLY TO TRUMP?
Trump is already being prosecuted for the attempt to overturn his 2020 loss that culminated with Jan. 6, but Section 3 doesn't require a criminal conviction to take effect. Dozens of lawsuits have been filed to disqualify Trump, claiming he engaged in insurrection on Jan. 6 and is no longer qualified to run for office.

All the suits failed until the Colorado ruling. And dozens of secretaries of state have been asked to remove him from the ballot. All said they didn't have the authority to do so without a court order - until Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows' decision.

The Supreme Court has never ruled on Section 3. It's likely to do so in considering appeals of the Colorado decision - the state Republican Party has already appealed, and Trump is expected to file his own shortly. Bellows' ruling cannot be appealed straight to the U.S. Supreme Court - it has to be appealed up the judicial chain first, starting with a trial court in Maine.

The Maine decision does force the high court's hand, though. It was already highly likely the justices would hear the Colorado case, but Maine removes any doubt.

Trump lost Colorado in 2020, and he doesn't need to win it again to garner an Electoral College majority next year. But he won one of Maine's four Electoral College votes in 2020 by winning the state's 2nd Congressional District, so Bellows' decision would have a direct impact on his odds next November.

Until the high court rules, any state could adopt its own standard on whether Trump, or anyone else, can be on the ballot. That's the sort of legal chaos the court is supposed to prevent.

## WHAT ARE THE ARGUMENTS IN THE CASE?
Trump's lawyers have several arguments against the push to disqualify him. First, it's not clear Section 3 applies to the president - an early draft mentioned the office, but it was taken out, and the language "an officer of the United States" elsewhere in the Constitution doesn't mean the president, they contend.

Second, even if it does apply to the presidency, they say, this is a "political" question best decided by voters, not unelected judges. Third, if judges do want to get involved, the lawyers assert, they're violating Trump's rights to a fair legal procedure by flatly ruling he's ineligible without some sort of fact-finding process like a lengthy criminal trial. Fourth, they argue, Jan. 6 wasn't an insurrection under the meaning of Section 3 - it was more like a riot. Finally, even if it was an insurrection, they say, Trump wasn't involved in it - he was merely using his free speech rights.

Of course, the lawyers who want to disqualify Trump have arguments, too. The main one is that the case is actually very simple: Jan. 6 was an insurrection, Trump incited it, and he's disqualified.

## WHAT'S TAKEN SO LONG?
The attack was three years ago, but the challenges weren't "ripe," to use the legal term, until Trump petitioned to get onto state ballots this fall.

But the length of time also gets at another issue - no one has really wanted to rule on the merits of the case. Most judges have dismissed the lawsuits because of technical issues, including that courts don't have the authority to tell parties whom to put on their primary ballots. Secretaries of state have dodged, too, usually telling those who ask them to ban Trump that they don't have the authority to do so unless ordered by a court.

No one can dodge anymore. Legal experts have cautioned that, if the Supreme Court doesn't clearly resolve the issue, it could lead to chaos in November - or in January 2025, if Trump wins the election. Imagine, they say, if the high court ducks the issue or says it's not a decision for the courts to make, and Democrats win a narrow majority in Congress. Would they seat Trump or declare he's ineligible under Section 3?

## WHY DID MAINE DO THIS?
Maine has an unusual process in which a secretary of state is required to hold a public hearing on challenges to politicians' spots on the ballot and then issue a ruling. Multiple groups of Maine voters, including a bipartisan clutch of former state lawmakers, filed such a challenge, triggering Bellows' decision.

Bellows is a Democrat, the former head of the Maine chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, and has a long trail of criticism of Trump on social media. Trump's attorneys asked her to recuse herself from the case, citing posts calling Jan. 6 an "insurrection" and bemoaning Trump's acquittal in his impeachment trial over the attack.

She refused, saying she wasn't ruling based on personal opinions. But the precedent she sets is notable, critics say. In theory, election officials in every state could decide a candidate is ineligible based on a novel legal theory about Section 3 and end their candidacies.

Conservatives argue that Section 3 could apply to Vice President Kamala Harris, for example - it was used to block from office even those who donated small sums to individual Confederates. Couldn't it be used against Harris, they say, because she raised money for those arrested in the unrest after the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in 2020?

## IS THIS A PARTISAN ISSUE?
Well, of course it is. Bellows is a Democrat, and all the justices on the Colorado Supreme Court were appointed by Democrats. Six of the 9 U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Republicans, three by Trump himself.

But courts don't always split on predictable partisan lines. The Colorado ruling was 4-3 - so three Democratic appointees disagreed with barring Trump. Several prominent legal conservatives have championed the use of Section 3 against the former president.

Now we'll see how the high court handles it.