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Verfasse mir bitte einen Zeitungsartikel zum Thema der bayrischen Landtagswahl im Oktober 2023.
Der Artikel sollte die folgenden Themen ansprechen:
- Die Auswirkung der Landtagswahl auf das politische Geschehen auf Bundesebene in Deutschland.
- Die zunehmende Briefwählerschaft
- Mögliche Verluste für die Partei "CSU".

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Bavaria votes: A record and some question marks

15 parties, 1,811 candidates, 9.4 million eligible voters: The Bavarian state election in October will determine the future balance of power in the Free State. A record is emerging, several questions promise excitement.

"Directive decision" for Bavaria, a "huge signal" also for the federal government - when Bavarian top politicians wanted to emphasize the importance of the state elections in the past few weeks, they didn't spare any big words. 9.4 million citizens in Bavaria are called upon to decide on the composition of the state parliament. At the same time, the seven district assemblies in the Free State are elected.

Even though surveys recently showed a majority for the previous government coalition of CSU and Free Voters, the state elections promise excitement. How are the balance of power changing? How many parties make it to the Maximilianeum? Who will be the second strongest party? Which direct candidates can prevail in the particularly contested electoral districts?

The opinion research institute Infratest dimap points out that many citizens only make a decision shortly before an election. The last phase of the election campaign “with the targeted targeting of undecided and tactical voters” is of great importance. In the last BayernTrend before the election at the end of September, around a third of those eligible to vote were still undecided.

15 parties are running
A total of 15 parties with over 1,800 applicants are running in the state elections this time. Ten of the parties can be found on a ballot paper in all Bavarian administrative districts. The voters decide on 180 parliamentary seats, although there could be a few more parliamentarians: In the legislative period that is coming to an end, 205 representatives sat in the Maximilianeum due to overhang and compensatory mandates.

The first projections are expected from 6 p.m., and according to the state returning officer, the first preliminary results from the 91 voting districts could be available from around 8 p.m. The preliminary Bavaria-wide result should not be available until after midnight.

Postal voting record is emerging
Bavaria is voting - but not just today, but actually for a good month now: Anyone who would rather vote in peace at home has been able to apply for postal voting documents in the past few weeks. According to the state returning officer, almost 38 percent of eligible voters had ballot papers issued with postal voting documents ten days ago - significantly more than at the same time before the 2018 state election (29.5 percent). This marks a record postal vote in a Bavarian state election.

According to an initial estimate, the overall voter turnout by 2 p.m. was around 60 percent. By then, around 35.4 percent of those eligible to vote had cast their vote at a polling station. This proportion refers to those eligible voters who have not applied for a voting slip and can therefore only vote by ballot box. Postal voters are not included in the population.
In the selected voting districts surveyed by 2 p.m., 41 percent of those eligible to vote had applied for a voting slip. Based on the experience of the last state and federal elections, around 95 percent of those entitled to vote with a ballot paper chose to vote by post.

CSU: Better or worse than 2018?
Ten days ago, the CSU was at 36 percent in ARD's BayernTrend. CSU boss and Prime Minister Markus Söder has always rejected "percentage discussions" in recent months, but many see the 2018 election results as a benchmark for him. At that time, the Christian Socialists had to accept their worst state election result since 1950 with 37.2 percent. Whether the CSU records a plus or minus compared to 2018 could not only affect Söder's authority in his party, but is also crucial for the balance of power in the next government coalition.

Although the Greens, SPD and FDP would each like to replace the Free Voters as junior partners of the CSU, the Prime Minister decided months ago on a continuation of black and orange. The Free Voters came to 16 percent in the BayernTrend at the end of September - they had received 11.6 percent in the 2018 state election. In view of the high polls, FW boss Hubert Aiwanger has already made it clear that his party would like to have a fourth ministry.<end_of_turn><eos>