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Successful Software
…requires more than just good programming.
Interview with Craig Peterson of Beyond Compare
I am a fan of file and folder comparison utility Beyond Compare from Scooter Software. It is a very polished and powerful piece of software with a big following. But I was intrigued by some of the unusual decisions they had taken: competing in a market with lots of free alternatives; going 6 years between major upgrades; re-writing from scratch; releasing a Linux version; and having an extremely generous trial policy. How had they succeeded despite ignoring much of the conventional wisdom? Craig Peterson of Scooter Software kindly agreed to answer my questions.
Can you tell me a bit about your background before working on Beyond Compare.
I started at Scooter Software straight out of college. I did a lot of programming for fun before then, but this was my first professional job and my first introduction to Delphi.
How long have you been working on Beyond Compare and what is your role?
I'm the lead developer and I started here in late 2000, a few months before significant development on v2 started. Most of my time is spent working on the directory comparison and the virtual filesystem layer (ftp, zips, version control), but there are very few places in the program that I haven't worked on. My non-development tasks include managing the build process, interfacing with our component vendors, keeping track of any interns, and tech support, when there's difficult questions or when the dedicated staff don't have time.
How many other people work on Beyond Compare on the business side and on the development side?
There's one other full-time developer, one part time developer, two in tech support, two in sales, and our president, who handles everything else.
There are lots of different file comparison tools. How do you manage to run a successful business with so many competitors, many of them free?
Competing with the free tools hasn't been as hard as I expected. The big advantage we have here is that people are paying us for the software, so we have strong incentive to provide good tech support and to provide the features they want. We work 8 hours a day on it, which gives us more time to develop new features than someone doing it as a hobby, and we can afford commercial libraries that someone providing a free utility can't.
As for the commercial competitors, it's mostly a matter of providing something that they don't. In our case BC's directory comparison is much more powerful than the alternatives, and we have viewers for other file types like images, binary files, and data files. That allowed us to keep competing even when we were lagging in other areas.
What are the main methods you use to promote Beyond Compare?
We rely almost entirely on word of mouth. We've had lots of customers tell us that they brought BC with them when they switched jobs and ended up getting their companies to spring for larger licenses. We do spend some money on Google AdWords, and we hired a company to periodically submit our site to search engines and download sites, but we've never run a print or banner ad.
scootersoftware.com has an enviable Google page rank of 6 and ranks second for "file comparison software". Have you spent a lot of effort on SEO?
We had a company help with SEO for a lot of the 2.x lifetime, and they'd suggest tweaks to improve things. For v3 we took a different approach and redesigned the site to make it more accessible to potential customers. I'm sure some of those changes helped, since we ended up adding more descriptions and using more synonyms, but it was primarily a case of asking how we could make it easier to find the information someone would want and expanding on that. We still have a fairly wordy page title though, and I think that's entirely for the search engines' benefit.
Are most of your customers programmers, or does the software appeal to a wider audience?
I'd say more than 50% are programmers, but there's definitely a wider audience. System administrators use it for migrating servers, web developers use it instead of a traditional FTP client, and non-techs use it for backups or synching their laptops and desktops.
How long do you allow people to use the trial version?
The trial is for 30 days, but it only counts days you actually run it, so if you use it infrequently you could easily go six months or more before it times out.
I used Beyond Compare for ages before I bought a licence. I would have bought it sooner if you had been less generous with the trial. Why did you go for such a long trial period?
That goes back to competing with all the other products out there. If someone installs two programs to evaluate, and then doesn't have a chance to really try them out until a month later, the one that works is more likely to get the sale. It also makes it more likely that potential customers will learn the application and start relying on it, so when it does come time to pay they're less likely to throw out that investment and switch to another tool.
I understand Beyond Compare v3 is a complete re-write. Why did you feel a complete re-write was necessary? Was it a good business decision in hindsight?
There were two reasons why we felt a re-write was justified: (1) we had a lot of features we wanted to implement that wouldn't work in the current framework, and (2) we over-estimated the speed that we could re-write it.
In the text compare we wanted inline editing with dynamic re-comparisons and 3-way merge, neither of which would have been easy to integrate into the v2 codebase. The directory compare had similarly major changes, though a lot of that is internal and in preparation for other features, so it isn't as visible. There was also all the work we did to get a Linux release out. It wasn't a complete re-write though. Anything that didn't need significant changes, like our reporting engine, was brought over mostly as is.
I think it was a good business decision in that it allowed us to rethink and rework a lot of things without the old baggage, but it was bad in that it significantly limited what we could release in the meantime. We ended up going 6 years between major versions and even though we were always busy adding new features, we couldn't release them until we got back to feature parity with v2.
Beyond Compare is written is Delphi. What would you say are the advantages and disadvantages of Delphi compared to other development 'stacks'?
I think Delphi is still the best tool for developing a native Windows application quickly. It's very easy to mock up interfaces and then fill them in with code. The resulting exes don't have any external dependencies, which makes redistributing them easy. The VCL (UI framework) ships with source code, and that has permeated the community, so the vast majority of third-party components also include source.
On the flip side, it still can't produce 64-bit executables and isn't cross platform. It doesn't have a garbage collector or as large of a class library as Java or C#. The community isn't as large either, so there's usually only a couple of choices when you're looking for specific components, and if that vendor stops developing it, there aren't as many people to pick up the slack.
If you had to do it all again, starting now, would you still choose Delphi?
Probably, but I would seriously consider C# or Qt. In our case we have a lot of experience with Delphi and we know the libraries, so starting from scratch in another language would be a significant barrier.
Beyond Compare has a very slick user interface. Did you do any usability testing?
Not as such. Our primary usability improvements come from using our own product. We use BC every day, for every comparison we do, so anything that sticks out tends to get squashed quickly. We also get alpha/beta versions into customers' hands as soon as possible, and keep iterating until they're happy. V2 and v3 both had private beta tests that lasted over a year and a half, and some of the features changed dramatically in response to that feedback.
Beyond Compare has a nice integration with Windows Explorer. Was that difficult to do? Were you able to do it in Delphi?
The first version of it was submitted by a user, so it wasn't difficult at all. It has taken a lot of refinement to get perfect though, and we were changing it all the way through to the final 3.0 release. It is written in Delphi, though I did rewrite it in C++ in order to get a 64-bit version working. FreePascal has since started producing 64-bit binaries, so we're back to the single Delphi version again.
You have Windows and Linux versions. What did you use to write the Linux version?
We're using a heavily customized version of Borland's now-dead Kylix product, which was Delphi for Linux. It does allow us to compile both versions from the same source code, but it's showing its age and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone else. Our driving goal is to have the best Windows version we can, which means sticking with Delphi and using what's available to produce the Linux version. If OS X and Linux support outweighed that we would use a cross-platform option like Qt or Java, but we believe the Windows version would suffer in that case.
Do you sell many licences for Linux?
We sell enough to fund its development, so it's a successful product. It does introduce new challenges though, both in development and tech support, so if we were a smaller developer it probably wouldn't be worth the overhead.
Do you think there will there ever be a web version of Beyond Compare?
I can see it as a possibility, and it would be interesting to explore, but it's not something we're looking into right now. I think it would have a different audience than the current product, and would probably never be as powerful as what we can do locally.
How did you choose the price?
Our $30 standard edition is about the same price as our commercial competitors, and seems to be the standard shareware utility price. The pro edition was priced based on our competitors, what our customers were telling us they'd pay, and what we felt the downward pressure of the freeware/opensource alternatives introduced. We keep the price low in order to make our profits on larger quantities sold, instead of a larger margin per-unit. We have increased our multi-user pricing considerably over the years though; the discounts were very steep in v1 and v2, and the feedback we got was that it was just too cheap for what it provided.
I see some translator credits on the website. Is v3 available in languages other than English?
Not officially, but we have just released beta versions of a couple of languages. The current credits are for the v2 translators, who are generally the same people working on v3 translations.
How important are resellers to your sales?
We get a lot of sales through resellers, but it's generally from people who would buy it either way. Foreign resellers are a help to the customers though, because they allow them to order in their own language using the local currency.
Does Scooter Software have any other products besides Beyond Compare?
No, BC keeps us plenty busy.
Thank you Craig.
You can download a free trial of Beyond Compare from the Scooter Software website. I have no affiliation with Scooter Software beyond being a paying customer.
This entry was posted in interview, marketing, software, tools and tagged beyond compare, Craig Peterson, delphi, Kylix, Linux, marketing, scooter software, v3, Windows on 1 February 2009 by Andy Brice.
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points of doubtful speculation with the fundamental doctrines of the Gospel. These doctrines are now pretty generally considered, not in that dogmatical metaphysical form which mixes doubtful inferences with plain assertions; but as facts, to use the fine observation of a living writer, believed on the sole authority of the Supreme Being, and inculcated in the words, and for the purposes, for which he has revealed them.
But with this spirit of Christian affection and unity, which, after all, we are only now beginning to learn, we must join that firm and unambiguous profession of every essential truth which is necessary to the character of the true Christian. And here a formidable, though concealed, danger lies hid. Charity may and will be counterfeited in a day like the present. A false candour, an indifference to truth, undue concessions to the spirit of the world, timid compliances on the score of peace, may and will be pressed upon us. In a time when the church is free from persecution, and when a wide range is given to the avowal of some of the peculiar doctrines of Christ, there is danger lest we should compromise our duty, and come down from the high elevation of the Gospel to the opinions of mankind. Much harm is now in progress in this way. Persons shrink from the bold originality of the peculiar discoveries of revelation, and attempt to recommend them to the acceptance of proud and worldly-minded men, by the artifices of palliation and disguise. Thus the edge is taken off from the truths of Christianity; the depth of the Fall of man and his utter ruin are concealed or palliated; the need of the operation of the entire mercy of God is weakened; the Scripture doctrine of justification is obscured; the complete renewal of the whole heart after the image of God is couched in softer terms, and made less prominent than the Scriptures represent it; the holy deportment of the be
liever, his communion with God, and the consolations of the Spirit, in a life dead to the vain society and pleasures of the irreligious, are lost sight of: in a word, a secret, but fatal, step is taken towards a decline from the pure evangelical standard of Christian truth.
The history of the Reformation is full of the dangers, arising on the side of undue concession, to which Melancthon and even Luther were exposed from their love of peace, and by which Erasmus was ultimately lost to the cause of truth. Timid and artful politicians were never employed to any good purpose in the service of Christ. The systems of refinement and mediocrity which they propose are, in fact, perfect chimeras; for, as Dean Milner admirably observes, "The cross of Christ must be undergone by those who mean to glorify God, to preserve a good conscience, to rebuke by their lives and conversations the evil practices of the world, and to promote the salvation of mankind. Erasmus was employed many years in these nugatory schemes; and while he courted the favour of the great, and secured himself from the danger of persecution, he promoted not one of those peculiar truths of Christian doctrine on account of which the good reformers suffered grievously from the tyranny of powerful princes and prelates." Something of this dangerous spirit may of late years have been contracted incidentally from the general intercourse among persons friendly to the circulation of the Scriptures which the Bible Societies have occasioned. If that should be found to be the case, one remedy for the evil is-not to limit those blessed institutions, or to narrow the comprehension of their rules --but to infuse into the public meetings of such societies, more and more of the true temper of the Gospel of Christ, and to watch more jealously than ever against mistaking our union as individuals-in a vast society whose glory it is to embrace
the whole world, not only as the object of its bounty, but as co-ope rators in its efforts for an union with Christ himself.
7. But this point will be more fully developed when we proceed to make our next deduction from the whole subject; namely, That in a great revival of religion, we must expect, and yet guard against, the evils inseparable from it, not letting such evils indispose us to the infinite blessings of such a revival. For evils, and great evils, though often greater in appearance than reality, have attended every considerable revival of Christianity. That the Reformation was not accomplished without such accidental consequences, who can deny? Witness the civil wars in Germany and the Low Countries; witness the disorders of the Anabaptists; witness the divisions in the Protestant churches; witness the relaxed tone of discipline in some of the Reformed districts; witness the infidelity and scepticism which cloaked themselves under the spirit of free inquiry. And yet all these evils were so incomparably less in extent than the universal idolatry, superstition, ignorance, torment of conscience, vice, dishonour of the Gospel, neglect of the Bible, and anti-Christian corruption of the whole design of revelation, under the Papacy, that they are not to be named as an argument against the blessed Reformation.
This is a point so much misunder stood, and of so great moment, that we must pause to give it a some. what further development.
Let us first adduce the matured de termination of Luther upon the case. "In our time, the success of the Gospel was at first great; and all hoped, as the Apostles did, before they were enlightened by the Spirit of God in the nature of his kingdom, that our doctrine would introduce public liberty and tranquillity; but, when disturbances arose, and the true character of the spiritual kingdom was discerned, with the infirmities of good men, and the like; then many drew back, and began to hate the Gospel. What was the cause of all this, but ignorance of the na
ture and conditions of the kingdom of Christ-which is of that kind, that it is every where exposed to the opposition of the world and of satan. They who are not aware of this will fail when dangers arise, and will condemn the Gospel as a seditious doctrine.'" p. 153.
Nothing can be more wise or scriptural than this remark; but it yields in fulness to the following striking and elevated sentiments of the same reformer.
"Another passsage presents Luther's own answer to those who exaggerated the mischiefs consequent upon the Reformation, and represented them as so great that it would have been better had no change been attempted. It is not easy to get over those scandals, when satan, or when subtle and able men set them forth in glaring colours, and charge us as the authors of them. Erasmus, among others, has told us, that there are certain diseases which it is better not to meddle with; the attempt to cure them is attended with so much danger. This sounds wise; and we ourselves are well aware of tious liberty that prevails, and the dissoluthe evils complained of: we see the licention of discipline, greater than existed under the Papacy. But are we answerable for this? In preaching the word, in contending by means of the word, we do but as we are commanded; nor may we on any consideration withhold obedience to the Divine command. The kingdom of Christ is of more worth, not only than under the Papacy-but than heaven and peace-especially such a peace as existed earth themselves. And then consider the other side: open your eyes and see the monstrous impieties which before prevailed! No where was one pure sentence heard concerning sin-grace-the merit of Christ-really good works--the magistracy and other offices and relations of life.
All was deformed and lost beneath what were the profanations of masses, corrupt and pernicious glosses. Then, what the impostures of indulgences, purgatory, and other abominations devised only as sources of gain! Mankind appear ly exposed, by impious teachers, to satan to me to have been purposely and studious
and eternal death. Look at the two sides of the question-there are evils and dis
orders on both--but which of the two is to be preferred? I had almost said I would rather live in hell with the word of God, than in paradise without it.'" pp. 325, 326.
Surely to any person who calmly weighs such arguments little needs be said to prepare him to expect a similar situation of things in the present day. Alloy and dross will some
what debase our purest gold. Since the period of the Reformation much advantage has been taken, by Papists generally, of the divisions among Protestant Christians. All unity is said to be lost; a rule of faith is declared to be evidently wanting; the evils of a free press and of controversies on religion are magnified; obscure sects scarcely known in our own country, and having no kind of influence, are swollen to principal divisions. But these are only incidental evils, and are scarcely perceptible when compared with the vast good attendant upon unfettering the consciences of men, and promoting an unchecked propagation of the Gospel. We are persuaded that if due attention were but paid to this consideration, those of the rulers and higher clergy of our national church, who regard with jealousy the operation of our Bible and Missionary Societies, the labours and doctrines of the clergy who are termed (let us hope not by way of reproach) evangelical, and the general activity of all classes in the diffusion of the Gospel, would view these proceedings with a more benign aspect. Unquestionably, evils may follow all this exertion and these acts of Christian benevolence. Undoubtedly, defects peculiar to such a new state of things may be produced, and which, without the amazing efforts that generate them, might have remained unknown. In considering the paramount importance of converting the whole world, the honour of which will not be restricted to any one body of Christians, some individuals may be apt to think too little of the peculiar claims of our own apostolical church. In our public assemblages occasional violations of taste and sound feeling may be apparent. It is alleged also, that there may be a danger of somewhat tarnishing the retiring graces of the female character, by charitable associations, however privately conducted. The purity of the Gospel, and the high tone of its distinguishCHRIST. OBSERV. No. 302.
ing spirit and doctrines, may not always be sufficiently exhibited. Divisions and controversies may spring up and be pressed for a time with acrimony and misrepresentions. Scandals may occasionally be found in the hypocrisy and evil acts of individuals, and primary duties be neglected by some who are eager to appear in the officious discharge of occasional ones. Let these and various other particular evils be admitted to exist, or, if the objector pleases, to be even created by the progress of a revival of religion; still, if they are only incidental; if they bear but an exceedingly small proportion to the immense good achieved; if they are jealously guarded against and checked as they arise; if the leaders and chief personages connected with these exertions of duty and mercy protest against them; if practicable suggestions for lessening them are zealously adopted; if prayer and other means are employed for purifying and elevating the proceedings of the assemblages which occasion them; if, above all, a spirit of humiliation and penitence is cultivated on account of these attendant defects,and the progress of things, becomes visibly less and less alloyed by their intermixture; then may we also, like Luther, rely on the mercy of God to cover our multiplied failings, and to grant us larger measures of His grace in the further prosecution of our Christian designs. But let us never, on account of such defects, renounce the positive and paramount duty of propagating the Gospel of Christ; let us never join the heedless throng in magnifying attendant and lamented evils ; let us never, with the timid and worldlyminded, withdraw our support from the acknowledged cause of God; let us never accuse our great societies of constituting a faction, or tending to the overthrow of existing establishments; and let us never affect a middle course, and wait for new efforts, and join in decrying the means by which the nations are now Q
actually receiving the light of the Gospel. Let the world calumniate -let the half-hearted listen to cowardly remonstrances-let those who cannot estimate the glory of the Gospel, or the value of the souls of men, or the importance of seizing opportunities as they arise, take the side of the inanimate and lethargic, and repose in the false dignity of external ease and inactivity. But let us, warned by the example of every preceding age, press on in the career of Divine benevolence and truth, and never omit instant and infinitely momentous duties on the plea of incidental inconveniences or evils. The sceptre of the Lord, says Luther, admits of no bending and joining, but remains straight and unchanged, and will at length sway the empire of the world.
8. And this leads us to our last practical deduction from a subject, our remarks on which, we fear, our readers may think already unduly extended. We may learn from all we have been reviewing, to persevere in every holy effort, relying on the Divinepromise and blessing, and with the general encouragement to be derived from the aspect of the world and the scope of Scriptural prediction without entering too much into the question of times and seasons, and the minute explication of the prophetic records. A wise and sober attention to the Apocalyptic visions is our duty and our privilege; for a blessing is pronounced on those who hear, and those who read the words of the prophecy. To compare the remarkable series of predictions in Daniel with those of St. John, and to illustrate the fulfilment of both by the unerring voice of Providence in the history of the church and of the world, is doubtless a noble and most animating study. A proportionate regard to these parts of the inspired books, chastened by deep humility and fear, will encourage the Christian to effort, relieve his mind during the heat and burden of the day, cheer him with the prospect of the termination of the captivity and pil
grimage of the Christian church, point out to him the permissive will of God in the Western and Eastern apostasies, direct him to the especial sins which these apostacies were sent to punish, and strengthen his faith in the nature and ultimate triumph of the Gospel of truth. A proportionate study of prophecy, in a day like the present, may also, perhaps, include a somewhat larger share of time than it would have done a century or two back, when we were struggling, in the infant days of Protestantism, against the pressing danger of the anti-Christian tyranny. Yet even then we observe that Luther was cheered by the voice of prophecy. The brand of the Apocalyptic beast was infixed on the Papacy by the Reformed preachers. "The stone cut out without hands, and filling the earth," was the spring of hope and confidence; and the command to "come out from the mystic Babylon, and not be partaker of her sins," was not issued in vain. Still more then should we now study the word of future revelation, when three centuries have been unrolling so much more of the book of God, and the labours of Mede, and Sir Isaac Newton, and Bishops Newton and Hurd, and Scott and Faber, and various other writers, have shed so much light on its interpretation.
But having stated thus much, we feel it our duty to add, that there is great danger of too much attention being attracted to the study of prophecy, important as it is, so as to draw off the minds of Christians from the vital and fundamental truths of salvation. There is danger of the imagination being inflamed, and the sound exercise of the judgment suspended;-there is danger of private interpretations directed to immediate and exaggerated objects, superseding the true import of what was spoken by holy men of old as they were moved by the Holy Ghost;there is danger of some such doubtful and unestablished interpretation so occupying the mind as to be
elevated into an article of faith or inculcated with unbecoming warmth and pertinacity-there is danger lest the mind, greedy of future knowledge, and weary of ignorance, should so seize on the supposed fulfilment of passing events as to render us prophets ourselves, and inflate us with notions of self-importance, and lead us to imagine we can solve the actual state of the dispensations of God's providence in the events around us. In proportion as the study of unfulfilled prophecy verges towards such evils, it becomes a dangerous spare. The miserable follies of the prophets of Germany in the sixteenth century, and of those of France in the seventeenth, with the scandals and hindrances to the Gospel which those pretenders occasioned; had their origin in perhaps a commendable study of prophecy, but, carried to excess, allowed to heat the fancy, and tending to lift up the mind, from humble watchfulness and obedience, to enthusiastic visions and pretensions.
To all scriptural purposes, the restrained and cautious development of the roll of prophecy, as events clearly conspire to unfold it, is sufficient. Such a proportioned and enlightened perusal of the prophetic books, when connected with a consideration of the aspect of the world and the church, and the general
promises of God's grace and blessing, is all we need for our encouragement, and all we are capable of using aright in our present state of conflict and darkness. It is not for us to pretend minutely to know "the times and the seasons," which the Father hath put in his own power. Such a prescience would unsettle our minds in the attitude of dependance, and might indispose them for the duty of penitence and prayer. Taken generally, and in their broad features, the prophecies. are "a light shining in a dark place;" they are the harbingers of the Redeemer's coming; they are the anticipations of the overthrow of antiChrist; they are the songs of praise tuned for the day of conquest; and they are the assurance and pledge of the ultimate and glorious triumph of the eternal Saviour. In this blessed consolation, let us pursue each our course of labour, and, it may be, of suffering. Like Luther and his noble colleagues, let us hope for every success in the name of our great Captain; let us imitate the reformers as they followed Christ; and let us, in the spirit of courage, wisdom, meekness, humility, and singleness of heart, exert every effort to propagate the kingdom of God, first in our own circles, and then in our country and in the world.
LITERARY AND PHILOSOPHICAL INTELLIGENCE,
&c. &c.
GREAT BRITAIN. PREPARING for publication :-A new History of Greece; by Mr. Grote ;-Forty Years' Diary of a Nonconformist Divine; -Blumenbach's Physiology, translated by Dr. Elliotson.
In the press :-Ulloa and Juan's Secret Report on South America; with illustrative Notes, by David Barry ;-The Present System of Public Education in France; by D. Johnston, M.D. ;—A Poem on Idolatry; by the Rev. W. Swan ;
Lectures on the Evidences of Christianity; by various Ministers ;-History of Philosophy and Science; by the Rev. T. Morell ;-The Grievances of the Curates of the Church of England, under the Powers vested in the Hierarchy, by 36 Geo. III. c. 83, and subsequent Statutes under the prevailing System of Nonresidence and Pluralities; by the Rev. J. J. Holmes.
Oxford.-The Rev. G. Faussett, of Magdalen College, has been elected Mar

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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XB Blog
A Very Long Streak In Jeopardy
by Jon White
Is this the year it finally happens? Will this be the year in which the Kentucky Derby winner is someone who did not race as a 2-year-old?
We already saw one of the longest streaks in all of sports come to an end last Friday when UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) crushed Virginia by a score of 74-54 in college basketball. Prior to that, No. 16 seeds had lost 135 straight games against No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. It marked the first time that a No. 16 seed had knocked a No. 1 seed out of the tourney in its history.
Apollo won the Kentucky Derby in 1882. Since Apollo, 135 straight Kentucky Derby winners have raced as a 2-year-old. But this long streak appears to be in serious jeopardy this year, thanks to a pair of seriously talented colts, Justify and Magnum Moon.
Justify, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is undefeated and untested in two career starts. I currently have Justify ranked No. 3 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list.
Magnum Moon, conditioned by Todd Pletcher, is three for three. I have Magnum Moon at No. 6 following his convincing 3 1/2-length victory in Oaklawn Park's Grade II Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles last Saturday.
Here is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week:
1. McKinzie
2. Bolt d'Oro
3. Justify
4. Good Magic
5. Audible
6. Magnum Moon
7. Solomini
8. Promises Fulfilled
9. Quip
10. Enticed
Justify and Magnum Moon are scheduled to meet in Oaklawn's Grade I Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 14. That will be an especially important race for Justify in that he has zero Kentucky Derby points at this time, whereas Magnum Moon has 50 points. Bolt d'Oro is the leader with 64 points.
In an excellent article regarding Kentucky Derby points written by Michael Spector for racingdudes.com, he forecasts that a horse will need approximately 34 to 38 points to safely get into one of the two Kentucky Derby starting gates this year. Spector speculated further that it could rise to 40 points or more (a) depending on how many defections occur in the weeks leading up to the first Saturday in May, (b) whether or not horses from the Japan and/or European Roads to the Kentucky Derby take one or two spots in the starting field, and/or (c) how many horses currently pointless will earn 100 points for a win or 40 points for finishing second in the last round of races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Meanwhile, the big news for Southern California racing enthusiasts last Saturday was the announcement that McKinzie and Bolt d'Oro will have a rematch in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 7. These are the two sophomores who put on quite a show in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at the Great Race Place on March 10.
McKinzie, who like Justify resides in the powerful Baffert barn at Santa Anita, finished first by a head in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. Bolt d'Oro finished second. However, Justify was disqualified and placed second for fouling Bolt d'Oro in deep stretch. Bolt d'Oro, conditioned by Mick Ruis, was elevated to first by the stewards following an inquiry that lasted for more than 10 minutes.
As for Magnum Moon, he was assigned a career-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure for his Rebel triumph. According to the American Racing Manual, these are the Beyer Speed Figures for the winner of the Rebel going back to 1990:
2018 Magnum Moon (97)
2017 Malagacy (94)
2016 Cupid (95)
2015 American Pharoah (100)
2014 Hoppertunity (100)
2013 Will Take Charge (96)
2012 Secret Circle (92)
2011 The Factor (103)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (98)
2009 Win Willy (102)
2008 Sierra Sunset (99)
2007 Curlin (99)
2006 Lawyer Ron (94)
2005 Greater Good (95)
2004 Smarty Jones (112)
2003 Crowned King (90)
2002 Windward Passage (94)
2001 Crafty Shaw (102)
2000 Snuck In (101)
1999 Etbauer (102)
1998 Victory Gallop (105)
1997 Phantom On Tour (102)
1996 Ide (93)
1995 Mystery Storm (93)
1994 Judge TC (95)
1993 Dahlart (105)
1992 Pine Bluff (106)
1991 Quintana (no figure listed)
1990 Nuits St. Georges (82)
Many seem to be "over the moon" vis-a-vis Magnum Moon's potential to win this year's Kentucky Derby. But keep in mind what occurred last year.
Pletcher won the 2017 Rebel with Malagacy, who exited the race undefeated in three lifetime starts, just like Magnum Moon. But Malagacy went on to finish fifth in the Grade I Arkansas Derby as the 2-1 second choice in the wagering, a race won by 9-5 favorite Classic Empire. Malagacy did not run in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, he did not make another start in 2017.
APOLLO: A FORTUITOUS KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER
The truth is, Apollo was quite fortunate to win the 1882 Kentucky Derby. He did so as a longshot in what William H.P. Robertson characterized as a "historic upset" in his book "The History of Thoroughbred Racing in America."
Runnymede, the heavy favorite, probably should have won that Kentucky Derby instead of losing by a half-length. Most people at the time were of that opinion.
In all likelihood, Runnymede would have won it if the track had not been wet (officially rated good). He disliked running on a wet track. Moreover, Runnymede was making his 3-year-old debut in the Kentucky Derby. And in 1882, the Kentucky Derby was a 1 1/2-mile race, not a 1 1/4-mile race as it is today.
It obviously was not an easy assignment for Runnymede to make his first start of the year going 1 1/2 miles. That meant Apollo had a distinct advantage against Runnymede inasmuch as Apollo had started three times in New Orleans in 1882 prior to the Kentucky Derby.
If Runnymede had won the 1882 renewal, all 143 Kentucky Derby winners would have raced at 2.
The fact that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby since 1882 without having raced at 2 often is referred to as "the Apollo jinx" or "the Apollo curse." More than a "jinx" or a "curse," I believe the reason no one has done it since Apollo is it makes perfect sense for a horse to need a good foundation by having raced some as a 2-year-old prior to being asked to go 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May while carrying 126 pounds.
I also think a good foundation to win the Kentucky Derby does not stem solely from a horse having made at least one start at 2. My belief is it's also beneficial for a horse to have experienced all of the training necessary in order to be ready to race as a 2-year-old. In other words, to a large extent, it's the training a horse requires in concert with any racing the horse does as a 2-year-old that builds a good foundation.
Nevertheless, as I have stated a number of times previously, I do believe we will see a Kentucky Derby winner who didn't race at 2 one of these years, mainly because horses do not race anywhere as much these days as they did through most of the Derby's history. Considering how good Justify and Magnum Moon appear to be, this just might be the year it happens. I especially think Justify, who looks so scary to me in terms of raw talent, could possibly do what has not been done since 1882, back when this nation had 38 states, not 50.
But don't forget that we have seen some very good racehorses who were unraced at 2 fail to win the Kentucky Derby at 3, such as Forego, Devil His Due, Pulpit, Curlin and Bodemeister.
Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old are a combined 0 for 61 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, the only horses to even place or show were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.
Going back to 1937, these are the 61 horses to try and win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2:
Comenow (finished 12th in 1944)
Bert G. (14th in 1945)
Hampden (3rd in 1946)
Perfect Bahram (9th in 1946)
Rippey (10th in 1946)
Coaltown (2nd in 1948)
Fanfare (5th in 1951)
Golden Birch (19th in 1951)
No Regrets (7th in 1956)
Gone Fishin' (8th in 1958)
Our Dad (15th in 1959)
Gleaming Sword (13th in 1968)
Fourulla (19th in 1971)
Big Spruce (7th in 1972)
Kentuckian (10th in 1972)
Dr. Neale (15th in 1972)
Forego (4th in 1973)
Twice a Prince (12th in 1973)
Agitate (3rd in 1974)
Confederate Yankee (12th in 1974)
Media (5th in 1975)
Bold Chapeau (8th in 1975)
Amano (4th in 1976)
On the Sly (5th in 1976)
Affiliate (9th in 1977)
Best Person (15th in 1977)
Chief of Dixieland (9th in 1978)
Great Redeemer (10th in 1979)
Flying Nashua (8th in 1981)
Reinvested (3rd in 1982)
Air Forbes One (7th in 1982)
Wavering Monarch (12th in 1982)
Majestic Shore (eased in 1984)
Irish Fighter (11th in 1985)
Wheatley Hall (6th in 1986)
Zabaleta (12th in 1986)
Pendleton Ridge (13th in 1990)
Corporate Report (9th in 1991)
Alydavid (14th in 1991)
Devil His Due (12th in 1992)
Disposal (18th in 1992)
Strodes Creek (2nd in 1994)
Pulpit (4th in 1997)
Desert Hero (13th in 1999)
Valhol (15th in 1999)
Wheelaway (5th in 2000)
Curule (7th in 2000)
Trippi (11th in 2000)
Atswhatimtalknabout (4th in 2003)
Song of the Sword (11th in 2004)
Greeley's Galaxy (11th in 2005)
Showing Up (6th in 2006)
Curlin (3rd in 2007)
Summer Bird (6th in 2009)
Dunkirk (11th in 2009)
Midnight Interlude (16th in 2011)
Bodemeister (2nd in 2012)
Verrazano (14th in 2013)
Materiality (6th in 2015)
Battle of Midway (3rd in 2017)
Patch (14th in 2017)
BLENDED CITIZEN WINS TURFWAY'S JEFF RUBY STEAKS
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet."
This marks the first time I have quoted Shakespeare here at Xpressbet.com since I first started writing this column in 2004.
I could not help but think of that famous phrase of The Bard's when trying to recall how many different names the Spiral Stakes -- known this year as the Jeff Ruby Steaks -- has had through the years.
Blended Citizen, trained by Doug O'Neill, won the Jeff Ruby Steaks last Saturday by a neck at 6-1 with Kyle Frey in the saddle. A son of 2002 Kentucky Derby runner-up Proud Citizen, Blended Citizen was assigned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance in the 1 1/8-mile race contested on a synthetic surface.
Racing with blinkers for the first time last Saturday, Blended Citizen now has won two of eight career starts. This was his first victory in a graded stakes race.
This race has undergone so many name changes that not even the American Racing Manual has managed to list them all. But when a race has its name changed so many times, I really can't blame anyone for missing some of them.
I did the very best that I could in researching this. The following is what I found in terms of various names for what began in 1972 as the Spiral Stakes at Latonia (before the track changed its name to Turfway Park in 1986):
1972-1981 Spiral Stakes
1982-1983 Jim Beam Spiral Stakes
1984-1998 Jim Beam Stakes
1999 Galleryfurniture.com Stakes
2000-2001 Turfway Spiral Stakes
2002 Lane's End Spiral Stakes
2003-2010 Lane's End Stakes
2011-2012 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes
2013-2016 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes
2017-2020 Jeff Ruby Steaks
I can't think of another stakes race that has been run under so many different names.
"STRIKES SEASON" NEARS
As regular readers of my weekly column here at Xpressbet.com know, I have developed the Derby Strikes System, which attempts to ascertain the chances of a horse to win the Kentucky Derby from both a tactical perspective and a historical standpoint. This tactical and historical approach has worked well since I first came up with the system in 1999.
It is not until a horse has made his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that one can determine a horse's number of strikes. This could start to occur as soon as after this Saturday's Grade II Louisiana Derby and Sunday's Grade III Sunland Derby.
The system consists of nine key factors. When a horse does not qualify in one of the nine categories, the horse gets a strike.
Statistically speaking, it is important for a horse to have zero strikes or one strike. That's because 38 of the last 45 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or just one strike.
According to my Derby Strikes System, it is not impossible for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby with two strikes, but it is unlikely. Only six of the 45 Kentucky Derby winners since 1973 have had two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005) and Always Dreaming (2017).
Any horse with three or more strikes has only a remote chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. Of the last 45 horses to win the roses, the only one to have more than two strikes was Mine That Bird, who had four.
In recent years I have come to the conclusion that "the sufficient racing experience" category is the least important by far because horses just do not race as much nowadays as when I first came up with the Derby Strikes System. Horses get a strike in the "sufficient racing experience" category if they go into the Kentucky Derby having made fewer than six lifetime starts.
The only strike for five of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners came in the "sufficient racing experience" category. The five were Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Animal Kingdom (2011), I'll Have Another (2012) and American Pharoah (2015).
One of Always Dreaming's two strikes came in the "sufficient racing experience category."
Among the plethora of runners who look like they will be getting a strike in the "sufficient racing experience category" this year are McKinzie (No. 1 on my current Kentucky Derby Top 10 list), Justify (No. 3), Good Magic (No. 4), Audible (No. 5) Magnum Moon (No. 6), Promises Fulfilled (No. 7) and Quip (No. 8).
THE LATEST NTRA POLLS
This is this week's NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 452 West Coast (31)
2. 326 Unique Bella (2)
3. 302 Roy H (1)
4. 249 Forever Unbridled (1)
5. 232 Accelerate
6. 178 World Approval
7. 142 Gun Runner (12)
8. 139 Gunnevera
9. 137 Abel Tasman
10. 109 Sharp Azteca
Here is this week's NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:
1. 451 Bolt d'Oro (32)
2. 424 McKinzie (13)
3. 276 Magnum Moon (1)
4. 245 Audible
5. 240 Good Magic
6. 166 Justify
7. 160 Promises Fulfilled
8. 157 Solomini
9. 117 Enticed
10. 75 Bravazo


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News, Top Story
Cops Launch Probe Into 'TORTURED TEEN' VIDEOS
Micah George July 25, 2017 10:08 am July 25, 2017 0
ACTING Police Commissioner Milton Desir yesterday said his department is looking into claims that a St. Lucian male in his late teens – said to be Scott Atkins — was tortured by foreigners while in another country and that the act was videotaped.
Acting Police Commissioner Milton Desir [PHOTO: PhotoMike]
Desir told reporters that his department began looking into the claims only after two females, claiming to be the teenager's sisters, filed a report to the police.
"On Thursday, July 20, sometime in the evening, two females, who claimed they are the sisters of the individual in the video, indicated that he had gone to Trinidad. They knew he was at work in Trinidad and Tobago and that they received this video indicating he was kidnapped in Venezuela and that the kidnappers were demanding some money for his release," Desir said.
Nearly four videos, each a minute's duration or less of the teenager in various stages of torment, hit social media last week and immediately went viral.
Desir could not attest to the veracity of the videos, one of which showed the young man hanging upside down, his feet tied together by a rope extending upwards and being beaten while pleading to his family, especially his mother, to do something to alleviate his fear and pain.
Another video showed the teenager on the ground looking lifeless, all bloodied with two men, faces not shown, one holding what looked like a high-powered rifle pointed at the teenager's head while the other held a chainsaw near the neck of the teen.
Another video shows the young man hanging by his hands under a straw-type roof with high-powered firearms aimed at his head, calling on his mother to tell someone named Shawn to pay his captors.
"Mommy, tell Shawn pay the people for me, please. Mommy, mommy, the people will kill me. Mommy, the people will cut my head. I do not want to die up here, Mommy, please, please, please tell Shawn to pay. I do not want to die here, mommy. Tell Shawn give me my life back," the young man in the video is heard saying as he was repeatedly stabbed.
Desir said the sisters spoke of receiving the video of their brother being tortured and that his kidnappers were demanding money for his release. Desir said he could not disclose the amount of money being demanded by the captors. However, unconfirmed reports are that the amount is in the region of US$130,000.
Desir also could not say in which country the videos were made.
"In matters like this, we would go through our Ministry of External Affairs, which would assist us in the course of investigations," Desir said.
He admitted to investigators being restricted in their investigations in this matter because the matter was not conducted in their jurisdiction.
Desir could not say much on the matter since it is now under investigation. But a taped voice message, which also has gone viral, in which a female is heard recounting the circumstances in which the teenager finding himself, is closely being examined by police.
Micah George
Micah George is an established name in the journalism landscape in St. Lucia. He started his journalism tutelage under the critical eye of the Star Newspaper Publisher and well known journalist, Rick Wayne, as a freelancer. A few months later he moved to the Voice Newspaper under the guidance of the paper's recognized editor, Guy Ellis in 1988.
Since then he has remained with the Voice Newspaper, progressing from a cub reporter covering court cases and the police to a senior journalist with a focus on parliamentary issues, government and politics. Read full bio...
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Home > Announcements > New Humsafar Express service between Kochuveli and Banaswadi from Oct 20
By Kerala Rail News 1 year ago Oct 12, 2018
Trivandrum: A new train 16320/16319 Kochuveli-Banaswadi-Kochuveli Humsafar Express will be introduced on October 20, 2018. This train will be flagged off by Union Minister of State for Tourism (Independent Charge), Shri K J Alphons.
Train No 16320 Kochuveli-Banaswadi Humsafar express (Biweekly) will leave Kochuveli at 18:05 hrs. on Thursdays and Saturdays to reach Banaswadi at 10:45 hrs. on Fridays and Sundays.
Train No 16319 Banaswadi-Kochuveli Humsafar express (Biweekly) will leave Banaswadi at 19:00 hrs. on Fridays and Sundays to reach Kochuveli at 09:05 hrs. on Saturdays and Mondays.
The trains will stop at Kollam, Chengannur, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Coimbatore, Erode, Salem, Bangarapet, Whitefield and Krishnarajapuram.
The inaugural run on 20.10.2018 will be a special service. The regular services will commence afterwards and run on due dates.
Cabinet approves Productivity Linked Bonus for Railway Employees


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Minson out as Time Warner Cable CFO, Office Depot's Sherwell in as Cablevision CIO
by Daniel Frankel |
Highlighting a flurry of executive comings and goings in the pay-TV industry Monday, Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) announced that Arthur Minson is out as executive VP and CFO and will be replaced by the tag team of company controllers/chief accounting officers William Osbourn Jr. and Matthew Siegel.
Minson will now take on the role of president and COO for WeWork, a privately held provider of shared workplace facilities and infrastructure.
"I've said many times that Artie is the finest CFO in America, and I believe it just as much today," said TWC Chairman and CEO Rob Marcus, in a statement. "His steady hand at the helm of our financial operations, as well as his overall business acumen and judgment, has brought great benefits to our shareholders and employees, and we will miss him."
Seigel, one of Minson's two replacements, had been set to join GreatLand Communications as CFO before the scuttling of the Comcast-TWC merger upended the launch of the new MSO.
Minson's departure comes as Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) announces the poaching of Office Depot executive Keith Sherwell as chief information officer. It's a newly created position for the MSO, with Sherwell noted for helping Office Depot work through tech integration following its purchase of OfficeMax in 2013.
Also, Sling TV (NASDAQ: DISH) announced the hiring of Digitalsmiths co-founder and CEO Ben Weinberger as senior VP and chief product officer
"Since Sling TV's arrival four months ago, we have added more than 40 domestic channels and thousands of hours of on-demand titles," said Roger Lynch, CEO of Sling TV. "This influx of programming makes it increasingly important that our content discovery process connects consumers quickly and seamlessly to the sports, shows and movies they love. Ben's background makes him the ideal fit to lead our effort in creating a world class next-generation TV experience."
- read this Time Warner Cable press release
- read this Wall Street Journal story
- read this Sling TV press release
Altice's Drahi: 'If I buy five small operators, I can be as big as Time Warner Cable'
Cable analysts: Altice's Drahi will target Cablevision, Cox, Mediacom
TWC's Marcus asks his 'fatigued' staff to get back on the merger 'rollercoaster'
Daniel Frankel


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Perspecta's View: Six Steps for DES to Capture Innovation
n X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System (UCAS) demonstrator flies near the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush. Erik Hildebrandt/U.S. Navy
What Will Replace the Third Offset? Lessons from Past Innovation Strategies
Whatever the name, it's crucial to have a framework for directing and harnessing advancements in defense technology.
Kathleen Hicks and Andrew Hunter
By Kathleen Hicks and Andrew Hunter
The Trump Administration's "skinny budget" doesn't tell defense watchers much they didn't already know. Among the outstanding questions: what of the Obama Administration's much-touted defense innovation initiative and Third Offset strategy? If past is prologue, the new administration is unlikely to adopt the terminology of its predecessor, and that's okay. Savvy defense modernization by any other name would smell just as sweet.
In late October, CSIS hosted a conference to assess the Third Offset strategy. In many ways, we found it to simply be the latest in a long line of frameworks used by administrations of both parties that seek to use defense innovation to overcome key operational challenges. Its predecessors include the Reconnaissance-Strike Complex, Revolution in Military Affairs, Transformation, Air-Sea Battle, Anti-Access/Area Denial, and several others that never quite achieved marquee status. These ideas are not all the same. Each has a particular strategic and/or operational imperative and scope. Yet they all share the aim of securing a distinct asymmetric advantage for the United States based, at least in part, on technology. The Trump Administration should take the most relevant attributes of prior frameworks, be attentive to their potential misuses, and adopt a framework for using innovation to serve national objectives.
What the Third Offset and its predecessors have done well is identify the strategic imperative for securing a new competitive operational edge through technology. This signaling is critical. It can reassure our allies and deter our adversaries by demonstrating the reliability of future U.S. military dominance. For innovators — whether they are government insiders, denizens of traditional and nontraditional defense industry, or other potential partners — it can serve as a clarion call for bold ideas. The better that warfighters can explain their current and projected operational imperatives, the better the public and private sector can bring compelling solutions to bear. As the details in the budget are filled in, innovators will be looking to see whether the organizations focused on cutting-edge approaches are being given the resources to implement them.
However, the history of defense innovation efforts is not entirely rosy. As the Trump Administration looks to develop its approach, it will do well to learn lessons from past efforts. Four lessons are particularly important.
First, innovation efforts stand the best chance of success when warfighter challenges are clearly described. "Transformation" was infamously all things to all people. Mentioned 89 times in the 2001 QDR, transformation sought to "extend America's asymmetric advantages well into the future" across virtually every operational and institutional area. The meaning was entirely in the eye of the beholder; Pentagon bosses would routinely tell staff to "sprinkle some transformation" on ideas they wanted senior leadership to fund. The Air-Sea Battle concept better defined the problem it was addressing, which DoD described as "how air and naval forces will integrate capabilities across all operational domains…to counter growing challenges to U.S. freedom of action" including the "development of future capabilities needed for effective power projection operations." Third Offset began more like transformation—an "ambitious department-wide effort to identify and invest in innovative ways to sustain and advance America's military dominance for the 21st century"—and evolved over time to a narrow, clearer scope. At the October CSIS conference, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work described Third Offset's focus as improving conventional deterrence against adversaries with advanced battle networks. Thus defined, Third Offset provides a shared understanding of the problem to be solved and puts potential adversaries on notice that the United States will close critical gaps.
Second, there is an obvious corollary to this first lesson: the Trump Administration should acknowledge that there are many important operational problems requiring solutions, even if they are not the leadership's current priority. For instance, Air-Sea Battle, Anti-Access/Area-Denial, and Third Offset all suffered from the appearance of ignoring current and projected ground-force challenges. There was a China bias inherent, if not always stated, in each. It took Russian actions in Crimea, the Donbass, and Syria to belie the exclusivity of the Pacific and air and maritime-dominant challenges facing U.S. power projection, and Russian unconventional actions against us at home and in Europe to demonstrate that effective deterrence requires more than just military power. The Trump Administration would do well to tailor frameworks to specific operational challenges, but they should also not suffer a failure of imagination on the range of operational challenges—across the spectrum of conflict—for which solutions are required.
Third, the new administration should begin with the understanding that the capabilities needed to meet an operational challenge require more than technology. Many people mischaracterized the Third Offset strategy as a technology-only approach, but Department leadership was careful from relatively early on to acknowledge that innovation requires technology to be combined with intelligence, operational art, and individual and collective skill enhancements. Even so, the most notable "innovation" initiatives undertaken in recent years have a decidedly materiel bent. The other elements of the innovation enterprise—notably concept development, organizational design, and experimentation and full-scale exercises on these—work far harder to glean senior-leader attention and needed dollars. This is particularly self-defeating in a world of rapidly spreading technology, in which one aspect of a comparative U.S. advantage must be the ability to adapt our people and institutions to leverage technology better and more quickly than others.
Finally, the Trump Administration's defense innovation agenda should look beyond eliminating U.S. weaknesses to furthering our many cost-imposing, asymmetric advantages. Perhaps the greatest of these advantages is the robust, multilayered web of alliances and partnerships that the United States has painstaking forged over multiple decades. One need only read the innumerable complaints from would-be adversaries about U.S. alliances and partnerships to know that these efforts complicate their planning more than almost any other U.S. action. Asymmetric opportunities likewise exist on the hard-power side. The United States has an unmatched ability to operate in multiple domains simultaneously and to unexpectedly reveal new capabilities at times of its own choosing, as it did with its ability to use moving target indication and bunker-busting in the First Gulf War. Looking ahead, the Trump Administration should strengthen current efforts aimed at keeping potential competitors off balance and thus deterred through the complex dynamic of capabilities development and effective strategic signaling.
Today, all eyes may be on the DoD budget topline, but the Trump Administration's defense innovation agenda still awaits. The global technological playing field seems increasingly to offer a series of jump balls, with possession going to the nation or nations that react fastest. The United States can deter adversaries and win the military competitions it chooses to engage in if it puts a premium on adaptability, builds on U.S. asymmetric advantages, and invests smartly to meet clearly-defined, and clearly important, operational challenges. Whether the Trump Administration adopts the Third Offset label or some other moniker is far less important than demonstrating it has learned these lessons from past efforts.
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5 films we learn from (or not) about energy
Often the cinema goes into the difficult terrain of science. There is a bit of everything: from wonderful energy ideas to tremendous "kicks" at the principles of physics. Let's go over some moments where the celluloid filled with watts.
The seventh art is an inexhaustible source of imagination. These stories that entertain us on Sunday afternoons dare to take on science and, more specifically, energy. Many anecdotes have come about from this cross, some with a certain technological basis and others that are directly ludicrous. Here are a few examples.
Matrix: short-battery humans
Directed by the Wachowski brothers -now Wachowski sisters-, this is the first part of a science fiction trilogy that mixes religion, aesthetics and computers.
The energy ingredient could not be missing from this amalgam: machines as evil as they are intelligent have seized the entire human race to use us as if we were removable batteries. In Matrix, the machines are powered from what we call bioelectricity. In other words, lots of encapsulated human beings used as natural sources of energy.
This theory hobbles, since it is calculated that a human body can generate around 100 or 200 watts per day, of which a large part are necessary for the body to continue living. If we do the maths, we get that the simplest computer needs 300 watts a day for basic operation. Choosing us as a battery would definitely be a bad business.
Iron Man: reality is more useful than sci-fi
Premiered in 2008 and based on the Marvel comics, it has Jon Favreau behind the camera and Robert Downey Jr. in front. The hero is Tony Stark, a sarcastic multimillionaire who invests a small reactor capable of preventing that the shards of shrapnel that he has in his chest from reaching the heart.
This reactor manages to generate 3 GJ/s (=3,000 megawatts per second), sufficient to power three million homes, but Tony Stark decides to use it as the engine of a futuristic armour that allows him to fly, launch lightning rays and other minor details such as repeatedly save the world. Iron Man has been born.
The most incredible thing about this story is that the artefact created by Iron Man could exist in reality. Scientists throughout the world are developing various types of mini-reactors. Their aim is not to create a superhero but to resolve much more practical problems. For example: improve the efficiency of antibiotics and allow surgical operations today impossible.
Or find an inexhaustible source of energy: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is researching a new fusion technology that uses rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) superconductors and could provide unlimited energy.
Monstruos S.A: voices that illuminate
The background idea is truly interesting: sound as a source of energy. The main characters belong to Monsters Inc., a company that scares children so that, from their screams, they can obtain energy to power the city of Monstropolis.
In real life, this could be achieved with thermo-acoustic engines. The research in that respect is still too recent but projects have been patented that generate electricity with the same efficiency as a fuel cell.
The process is quite complicated, but to simplify we could say that it is based on the use of heat to produce sound which in turn are used to generate more heat, cooling or power.
Within this initiative we can find Thatea, a European project financed by EU funds the aim of which is to assess the different processes of thermo-acoustic inversion and lead this emerging technology.
Race to the Sun: 1.000 km of solar autonomy
Everybody knows Halle Berry. But only a few people remember that in 1996, together with the comedian James Belushi, she starred in the true story of the Konawaena Institute in Hawaii. Its students won the student category of the Race of the Sun, a solar-powered car competition that every two years travels across Australia from north to south (from Darwin to Adelaide = 3,000 km).
The Race to the Sun continues to be staged nowadays and the latest edition was one by a Dutch team that has patented el Stella Lux, a solar car with autonomy of 1,000 km. It is made from carbon fibre and aluminium, with solar panels on the roof. It has four places, Internet connection and a navigation system that allows the driver to select the most energy efficient route.
The Saint: cold fusion continues to be a hoax
The latest cinematic adaptation of the adventures of the British thief Simon Templar does not come into the category of memorable… although I am sure that Val Kilmer remembers the Razzie Award for the worst actor he won in 1997 for this film.
In it, Templar is hired by a Russian magnate to steal the cold fusion formula, a technique that will allow him to obtain abundant energy at a very low cost, saving Russia from a serious energy crisis.
Does cold fusion really exist? Not at present. Why? Because nuclear power plants and atomic bombs work with fission reactions: uranium or plutonium nuclei which are split to form other smaller nuclei.
The drawback of fusion reactions (not to be confused with fission) is that which occur at very high temperatures (one million degrees) and we still do not have the necessary technology to standardize this procedure safely. So, when the chemists Martin Fleischmann y Stanley Pons announced in 1989 that they had produced cold fusion reactions, the scientific world went crazy.
Like in "The Saint", its discovery opened to door to inexhaustible, clean and very cheap. But after the initial problem, nobody was capable of replicating the process. Fleischmann and Pons disappeared from the map and little more was known about them. It is not known if they wanted to deceive the world or, simply, they deceived themselves.
Bonus Track: "Revolution" and the world without electricity
A bonus for film lovers: "Revolution". This series, produced by J. J. Abrams (creator of "LOST" and the director of the new instalments of "Star Wars") is set in a post-apocalyptic future. The story starts with these words:
"We lived in an electric world. We relied on it for everything. And then the power went out. Everything stopped working. We weren't prepared. Fear and confusion led to panic. The lucky ones made it out of the cities. The government collapsed. Militias took over, controlling the food supply and stockpiling weapons. We still don't know why the power went out. But we're hopeful someone will come and light the way".
Luckily, the real world is not as dark. If you hate it when the electricity goes out or you have no wifi… forget about science fiction and contract Endesa's OK Luz Maintenance Service. Don't make up movies in your head, better just to enjoy them.
Contract OKLuz
10 films about a world with no electricity
Tesla versus Edison: the conflict that gave us alternating current
Alternate schedules: energy usage of those who live at night
I'm not going out today, brother. I'm nesting


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Steve Nash Says Stephen Curry May Be Most Skilled Player in History of NBA
Alec Nathan@@AlecBNathanTwitter LogoFeatured ColumnistNovember 19, 2015
Golden State Warriors point guard and reigning NBA MVP Stephen Curry has started the 2015-16 NBA season by blitzing opposing defenses with stunning regularity, and according to one legendary floor general, Curry may be the most skilled player to ever grace the Association's hardwood with his presence.
In a piece penned by Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News, former NBA MVP and current Warriors player development consultant Steve Nash discussed Curry's maturation and explained how the 27-year-old's ever-expanding skill set separates him from his contemporary and historical peers.
"He's maybe as skilled a player as we've ever had in this game," Nash said, per Kawakami. "But he has improvements to make as far as his feel and comfort, the cat-and-mouse thing, strategy and picking and choosing a spot, conserving energy and getting the same amount done. He can improve a lot, which is scary."
It's important to note Nash is not calling Curry the best to ever play the game. In fact, Nash made it abundantly clear in his conversation with Kawakami he wouldn't draw a direct comparison between the Warriors star and Michael Jordan.
"I wouldn't compare him to Michael Jordan—I wouldn't compare anybody to Michael," Nash said. "But I would say Steph is turning into a historical category of his own, in a way."
That logic is hard to argue with.
In the midst of the Warriors' 12-0 start, Curry leads the NBA in scoring at 33.7 points per game, which separates him from the game's other elite scorers by a terrifyingly wide margin, per ESPN Stats & Info:
ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo
Stephen Curry: 404 pts; 101 more than next-closest player. That's the same difference between No. 2 Damian Lillard & No. 26 Brandon Knight.
However, it's the efficiency and flair with which Curry's scored that have made his season-opening statement so impressive.
With nearly 15 percent of the regular season in the books, Steph is shooting 52.1 percent from the field, 45.6 percent from three and 92.3 percent from the free-throw line.
Deep Dive: Stephen Curry's Early-Season Shooting
FG% on Drives FG% on Pull-Ups FG% on Pull-Up 3s FG% on Catch-and-Shoots FG% on Catch-and-Shoot 3s
Source: NBA.com/Stats
And not only is Curry angling to join the esteemed 50-40-90 club, but he's on pace to shatter his own record for single-season threes made (286), according to CBSSports.com's Matt Moore.
It's easy to say Curry will eventually slow down considering how outlandish all these numbers appear. But based on his aggressive style of play within the Warriors' free-flowing offense, it's not out of the question to think Curry could continue to pile up points inside and outside at his current clips well into the dog days of the season.


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Influenza Precautions, Then and Now
January 15, 2015 Circulating Now Collections, Guests 7 comments
Circulating Now welcomes guest blogger Tom Ewing, Professor of History and Associate Dean in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Professor Ewing offers a comparison of health recommendations during the Spanish Influenza epidemic of 1918 and today.
On October 18, 1918, the Illustrated Current News in New Haven, Connecticut, published a list of steps "To Prevent Influenza!" with a full page photograph of a Red Cross nurse wearing an influenza mask. These recommendations echoed numerous statements from federal, state, and local public health officials urging the population to take specific measures to prevent the further spread of so-called Spanish Influenza. In late September 1918, as this particularly deadly form of influenza spread throughout military camps and then into civilian populations, the United States Public Health Service issued a bulletin urging citizens to take precautionary steps to contain the disease.
To Prevent Influenza, Illustrated Current News, October 18, 1918
National Library of Medicine #A108877
In the weeks that followed, as the epidemic worsened and deaths rose dramatically, these recommendations were distributed as pamphlets, republished in newspapers and journals, and displayed as placards in train stations, store windows, and movie theaters.
At the start of 2015, as flu cases remain widespread and health officials recommend steps to contain the disease, the historical record is a useful way to gauge how much has changed, but also how much remains the same, in experts' responses to disease outbreaks. A comparison of answers to the question, "How can one guard against influenza?" in 1918 and the steps urged by today's Centers for Disease Control demonstrates that public health responses to disease outbreaks are shaped by both advances in medical knowledge and the context in which epidemics occur.
The most significant change is the availability now of vaccines to prevent disease transmission and antiviral drugs medications to treat illness, as neither of these medical options were available a century ago. In 1918, the Public Health Service could only recommend measures to make patients feel better, such as offering fluids and cold compresses to feverish patients. Despite the obvious ineffectiveness of limited medical options in 1918, the Public Health Service issued a seemingly pointless warning that patients only take medicine prescribed by a doctor, as it was "foolish" to follow druggists' advice to try "the so-called 'safe, sure, and harmless' remedies advertised by patent-medicine manufacturers."
Gude's Pepto-Mangan Ad, Lynchburg News, November 5, 1918.
Courtesy University of Virgina
If the level of medical understanding has changed significantly over a century, "everyday preventive actions that can help stop germs, like flu," to use the current terminology from the Centers for Disease Control, are remarkably similar to measures in 1918 to keep the body strong and "able to fight off disease germs." These measures included maintaining "a proper proportion of work, play, and rest," wearing warm clothes, spending time in fresh air, avoiding crowds, and eating "sufficient, wholesome, and properly selected food." Just as the Centers for Disease Control now recommends that healthy individuals avoid contact with the sick, the Public Health Service in 1918 instructed sick citizens to remain home to avoid infecting others. In both 1918 and now, avoiding contaminated surfaces was recommended as a preventive measure, although the suggestion a century ago that attendants of patients wear gauze masks has been discarded as medically ineffective. The couplet that ended the 1918 pamphlet, "Cover up each cough and sneeze / If you don't you'll spread disease," is reproduced almost verbatim, but without the mnemonic device of a rhyme, on websites and in tweets.
Graham Guardian, October 25, 1918
The pace and scope of information dissemination has obviously changed significantly since 1918. Whereas websites, social media, and live interviews now allow officials to respond to changing conditions or address public concerns within days or even hours and publish data on a weekly basis, the 1918 publication cycle was slower and more distributed. Some newspapers delayed publication of "the latest word" on the Spanish Flu for as much as a month, even as cases and deaths mounted. Yet public health officials in 1918 actively pursued media strategies appropriate to the context, including collaborating with theater owners to post placards in lobbies.
The Spanish influenza occurred in a wartime context, when public health organizations, like all branches of the government, were fully mobilized to support this national priority. The close connection between the war and influenza was evident when newspapers illustrated "Uncle Sam's Advice on Flu" with a graphic showing a sick man standing in front of a crowd that included civilians and soldiers, with this caption: "Coughs and Sneezes Spread Diseases / As Dangerous as Poison Gas Shells."
As is now well-known, the death toll from Spanish influenza in the United States, estimated at more than 600,000, was at least five times the number of American soldier deaths in World War One. Public health officials in 1918 certainly underestimated the danger of Spanish influenza, with a confident prediction that "ordinarily" patients recovered after three days of illness and the "proportion of deaths in the present outbreak has generally been low." Yet even at this early stage, the Public Health Service warned that "in some places the outbreak has been severe and deaths have been numerous." Epidemiologists and historians continue to seek explanations for the very high morbidity rates in 1918 and ask whether any preventive measures could have been mitigated this toll. A comparison of health recommendations then and now demonstrates both significant advances in proven medical responses, such as vaccines and antiviral medications, and important continuities in information about the flu and everyday preventive measures that may contribute to the overall health of the population.
Professor Ewing's recent research in the historical collections of the National Library of Medicine includes using new methods of analyzing textual information to discover information about public health communication. In July 2015, Dr. Ewing will lead a summer seminar for schoolteachers, funded by the National Endowment for the Humanities, on the Spanish Flu, with a site visit for research at the National Library of Medicine, Library of Congress, and National Archives and Record Administration. Follow him on Twitter at @EThomasEwing.
Centers for Disease Control and Preventionepidemicinfluenzapublic healthvaccine
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avoid worry, fear, and fatigue! But, I mean, totally worry about this.
guinevere faichnie says:
i hope no one has got that flu for the 2017 and so on years
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Kampus Swasta Terbaik says:
we have to sit still to avoid influenza.. thanks for sharing the information


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P-38 Lightning vs Ki-61 Tony Book Review
By Michael Benolkin
Date of Review
P-38 Lightning vs Ki-61 Tony
Donald Nijboer
80 pages, softbound
MSRP (USD)
Osprey has launched an interesting series of titles unde the 'Duel' series - comparing adversaries under specific conditions and looking at the comparison from a variety of perspectives. We've looked at several out of this series and it is turning into a very worthwhile resource.
At face value, the title compares the P-38 Lightning versus the Ki-61 Tony during the battle for the South Pacific, specifically the battle for New Guinea between 1943-44. This historical cross-section is broken down as follows:
The Strategic Situation
The Combatants
So in peeling the onion of this story, the author unfolds the timeline in the development of the two aircraft, and how they were developed to completely different design philosophies with the Japanese favoring light, agile aircraft and the US preferring armored aircraft with superior firepower. As with any aerial encounter, the victor will usually be the better, more experienced pilot. One significant difference between the two aircraft is well-illustrated on the cover of this title - when the P-38 loses an engine, the pilot feathers the engine and limps home whereas the Tony pilot gets an opportunity fo some glider practice before bailing out somewhere at sea o over the jungle.
The author provides you a glimpse of how the battle for New Guinea unfolded through the eyes of veterans of both sides as well as through graphics to put these perspectives into context. The carnage that followed is written in the history books, but this interesting look at this slice of the air wa is a good read.
This title is recommended!
My sincere thanks to Osprey Publishingfo this review sample!
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