in the united states approximately 200 000 people contract hbv [hepatitis b virus] each year. however only 10 000 to 15 000 of these people develop a chronic hepatitis b infection. why do some people clear the virus from their bodies while others progress to chronic disease? it appears that the immune system is the most important factor in determining whether a person can rid herself of this virus rather than develop a persistent infection. the immune system is relatively immature early in life. therefore the younger a person is when hbv is contracted the greater the likelihood that the infected person will become a chronic carrier of the disease. if an adult is infected her probability of developing chronic disease is very low—approximately 1 to 5 percent. if a person contracts the infection in infancy there is as much as a 90- to 95-percent chance that her immune system will be unable to eliminate this virus from her body. children fall somewhere in between having approximately a 25 to 35 percent chance of going on to chronic disease. men are six times more likely than women to become chronic carriers of hbv. the reason for this has not been determined. also people with poor immune systems—such as those infected with hiv organ recipients and those undergoing chemotherapy—have a much lower success rate of eliminating the virus from their bodies. patients who are the sickest during their acute illness especially those who develop jaundice or who survive fulminant hepatitis have the highest likelihood of totally recovering and thus not progressing to a chronic disease.
what are the chances of hepatitis b becoming a chronic disease?