A retrospective validation study of the STUMBL score for emergency department patients with blunt thoracic trauma.INTRODUCTION
 The STUMBL score is a prognostic model for BTT, derived and validated in the United Kingdom; items comprising the score are age, number of rib fractures, use of pre-injury anticoagulants, chronic lung disease and oxygen saturation levels.  This study's aim was to validate the STUMBL score in an Italian ED.


 The performance of the STUMBL score was analysed in terms of discrimination with the evaluation of the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and with the calibration belt.


 745 patients were enroled (median age 64 [25th;75th percentile: 50;78], male/female ratio 1:4, median Charlson comorbidity index 2 [1;4], median STUMBL score 11 [6;17]).  The STUMBL score was significantly different in patients with complications compared to those without complications (9 [5;13] vs 21 [17;25], p < 0.001).  STUMBL score = 16 has a sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.85), specificity of 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.90), a positive predictive value of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.76), and a negative predictive value of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90-0.94).


 In this validation study, the STUMBL score demonstrated excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the outcome of patients attending the ED with a BTT.
STUMBL